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Census in Nigeria: The Politics and the Imperative of Depoliticization
Abstract
This paper demonstrates that the persistent (mis)management of census is a key variable in the pattern of political instability and diminishing capacity that have defined the Nigerian State since it attained relative political independence in 1960. With roots in the highly exploitative and manipulative colonial enterprise, the crises of census in Nigeria continue to be sustained in contemporary times by the inherited contradictions that define the nation's political economy. Thus every past census in Nigeria has been a victim of intense elite contestation for power and resources, and therefore rather than enhance the planning and development process of the country, has further impaired it. The paper argues that any census, the scheduled 2005 edition inclusive, conducted in the context of extant hotly-disputed and largely illegitimate State structure, will not be able to accomplish its set objectives; with the decision by the Nigerian State to deny rather than come to terms with Nigerians' primary forms of identity, ethnic and religious, set to further erode rather than enhance the integrity of the exercise. It concludes that census will stop being inverted in its role in Nigeria only when the governance structure becomes wholly decentralized, the federating units become truly so, and census as an exercise becomes wholly de-politicized.
... This can be actualized through census data and the willingness of those concerned in providing such information [1,2]. According to Mimiko [3], population census data are critically important for equitable political and economic representation of a citizen on various levels of government. According to Akinbode [4], the infrastructural development may not be realizable in the absence of the knowledge and information about the population of a nation as can be provided by population census. ...
... More so, such situation is attributed to the failure of National Population Commission to Institutional corruption [11]. Mimiko [3], analyzed the time frame and the census manuals in the post independent censuses in Nigeria and found that the condition in which census are conducted in Nigeria end up leading to the publishing of biased census results. Similarly, Onwuka [12], associating the Nigerian population from 1980-2003, and the rate of population growth using regression analysis, discovered that the census results released so far and the reality in Nigerian population phenomenon are far from each other. ...
... Consequently, population census emerges as a pivotal governmental duty, laying the groundwork for policy formulation across political, economic, and social realms (Peter et al., 2013). In essence, it plays a central role in strategic planning for sustainable national development, offering insights into the total population, demographic characteristics, and residential patterns, thus informing infrastructure development geared towards enhancing citizens' quality of life (Mimiko, 2006). ...
Demographic data obtained from population census serves as a fundamental basis for national development planning, revenue distribution, state establishment, local government creation, constituency delineation, and parliamentary representation. The significance of a precise and dependable population census in national development planning cannot be overstated. Despite its importance, population data in Nigeria is plagued by issues of inaccuracy and unreliability, often resulting in perceived falsification. Falsified population data can have adverse effects on a country's socioeconomic and political progress. This study employed an Armchair research approach to examine the falsification of population census outcomes in Nigeria and its repercussions. By delving into the historical context of census practices in Nigeria, defining census and falsification concepts, uncovering instances of census falsifications in Nigeria, and outlining their implications, the analysis shed light on intentional and unintentional falsifications, including errors in data collection instruments. The repercussions of manipulating population figures encompass incitement of unrest, inequitable revenue sharing and resource allocation, inaccurate parliamentary representation, corruption, unnecessary constituency delineations, and local government creations. To prevent the falsification of population census findings, recommendations include implementing biometric technology in data collection, establishing a comprehensive population registry for universal registration and updates, promoting public awareness on the significance of precise census data, enhancing the training of census personnel, conducting regular census exercises, and ensuring adequate funding for such undertakings.
... According to Madans (2011), a census is a technique for gathering statistical information regarding a population, which is widely acknowledged as essential to democracy and progress. The actual process of getting to know society's members in terms of age, sex, education, occupation, and economic activity is known as a census, according to Mimiko (2006). Every country must conduct a census in order to fully comprehend its population composition and size and to carry out sound economic planning. ...
Population is very vital to the government for nation building of a country especially, Nigeria. Nigeria’s population has been contentious and politicized since colonial times. Census statistics embodies an essential database prerequisite for measuring the physical and social well-being of a nation’s population. Hence, for any country to realize its development potentials, it requires a comprehensive population database support to guide its socio-economic programs, planning and implementation. The fusses in Nigeria census steered the cancellation of the 1962 general population census which was repeated in 1963.The Population of an area is considered a political weapon, a condition desiderata for provision of amenities, infrastructure and in fact, guides wealth allocations and fiscal planning. Regrettably, Nigeria is yet to produce an acceptable and satisfactory demographic data for infrastructural development and nation building. Scholars of Nigerian history appear not to have paid adequate attention to nation building in Nigeria as a result of inaccurate population database. Hence, it is a perception of issues of politics and population census this paper tend to address. Qualitative research methodology was adopted for effective analyses. The paper concluded that inherent contemporary issues have continued to defeat the main aim of population census as an instrument for strategic planning and sustainable development. Lack of accurate census figures has contributed to Nigeria’s policy summersault and under development. It is unfortunate that in this 21st century Nigeria still does not have effective and reliable census data due to the fact that politicization, Falsification of population census result, religion rivalry, ethnicity stimulation and fluctuation of period of conducting census serves as a controlling force against accuracy of population census figures.
... In contrast, a repeated interpretation of census taking in sovereign Nigeria has been that results are not used for anti-discrimination and development but instead as a means for the dominance of majoritarian ethnic groups over minoritarian ones (e.g. Ezea, Iyanda, & Nwangw, 2013;Mimiko, 2006). ...
... The homeless persons also perceived their participation in previous censuses as being politically motivated rather than a process that meets the needs of the population through datadriven development. Similarly, Mimiko (2006) in an earlier publication posited that past censuses in Nigeria are victims of elite contestation for resources and power rather than an enhancement of planning and development in the country. ...
This study examined how the state of homelessness can influence the perception and willingness of the homeless population to participate in the 2023 housing and population census in Nigeria. The research adopted an exploratory case study drawn from field experiences. The accidental sampling technique was employed in selecting eight homeless persons in the Ajegunle locality in Lagos. Observational notes and interview data were collected and analyzed thematically. The findings showed that most participants were of the Hausa–Fulani ethnicity and were engaged in menial jobs for survival. Having participated in previous censuses, people who are homeless persons perceived the exercise as influenced by political issues and less essential to their well-being and state of homelessness. The study showed that the failed expectations from the previous census deterred the homeless persons from continued participation in the exercise. In conclusion, the study suggests the need for government to ensure the translation of census data into development to boost public confidence in census participation and outcome.
... As a result, it was highly contentious, with the Government of Southern Sudan rejecting the results (Santschi 2008). The link between regional population shares and political representation and resource sharing has also been the cause of significant contention and allegations of statistical manipulation in successive censuses of Nigeria (Ahonsi 1988;Aluko 1965;Mimiko 2006). ...
... The result of the 1973 population census was also cancelled therefore there was no population census held until 1991. The 1991 national head count revealed that Nigeria's population was 89 million [4]. It is important to note however that Nigeria population at the moment according to World Bank is roughly 185million even though the last population census in Nigeria back in 2006 revealed about 140million. ...
Studies that seek to explain the relationship between population growth and economic growth in Nigeria are at the moment very scanty. This study investigated the causal relationship between these afore-mentioned variables (i.e. population growth and economic growth) in Nigeria using annual time series data covering the period of 1970 to 2013. The study relied on the Granger-Causality technique to capture the objective of the study. The result of the neither Granger-Causality test showed that neither economic growth (GDPGR) caused population growth (POPGR) nor population growth (POPGR) caused economic growth (GDPGR) during the period under-studied. In the absence of any causal link between our variables of concern, this study thus recommended that the Nigerian government (in order to take advantage of the huge population size) invests more in education/human capital development in order to boost both the quantity and quality of the labour force which in turn is expected to positively impact economic growth in the long-run.
... Another work describes India census data collection using PDA, which is the design and implementation of census Data collection system using PDA [9]. Voter Privacy which is one of the main security issues in the election process can be guaranteed by using blind signatures for confidentiality and voter's digital signature for voter's authentication [10] [11] [12]. However, most of these approaches are yet to success in providing an update census data. ...
... It is these 'purely technical' ideologies that function to mask the politically and socially charged agendas behind such bureaucratic exercises, and their repetition serves to further institutionalize, and thus conceal, those charged agendas (Bowker and Star 1999:139). Mimiko (2006) argues that it is the politicized and contested state structure and its poor handling of issues of ethnicity that have made the census in Nigeria problematic; if the governance were decentralized with genuine federalism, the census would become depoliticized (Mimiko 2006:1). Ethnic nationalities in Myanmar have designed their own censuses to verify the data of the official, national one.35 ...
Partially rooted in British colonial ethnology and administration, the ethnic categories of the 2014 Myanmar census have attracted controversy, particularly from representatives of non-Burman political organizations. The categories themselves, as well as the bureaucratic exercise of the census, have a complex genealogy which offers considerable insight into understanding the contemporary situation. Drawing from Hirschman’s theory that the study of measurements of ethnicity is a unique resource for understanding the meaning of ethnicity in a society, this article discusses the controversy surrounding the 2014 census, and how some census-related issues have been crucially framed by bureaucratic structures that came before.
... " in terms of age, sex, education, occupation, economic activity and other crucial characteristics, as well as " Where we live " in terms of housing and access to social amenities. The answers to these questions do provide numerical profile for planning and development within a nation by providing, expanding and sustaining the infrastructures that will enhance the quality of life of the people (Mimiko, 2006). The United Nations recommends that countries take a census at least once every ten years but unfortunately Nigeria national population census exercise has not maintained this interval in its past censuses. ...
... The answers to these questions will provide numerical profile for planning and development within a nation by providing, expanding and sustaining the infrastructures that will enhance the quality of life of the people. 13 ...
Despite the series of population census that has been carried out over the years, the question of how to implement population census and the real population of Nigeria still remains unanswered. This paper analyses the importance of statistical knowledge of Nigeria's population, in terms of planning and development. In order to have an accurate and trustworthy data of Nigeria citizens, a biometric system for data collection is proposed as well as a centralised database for storing these data. Although biometric system is not a new technology but it is new in this part of the world as it has not been in use in Nigeria. This technology will give Nigerian government a statistical knowledge of its population data which is of critical reference to ensure equity and distribution of governmental resources. It will also serve as a precursor for effective planning, development and service delivery to its citizens.
... Thus, it is obvious that accumulation of accurate information which stems from census taken over a certain area is necessary for policy making, development planning, information resource and political purposes as well. According to the 1962 report on Census conducted in Nigeria, there was disputation in the authenticity of the census figures computed [1]. Another study critically examined the controversy surrounding the recently concluded population census in Nigeria which came up in 2006; the paper argued that the 2006 population census was no way different from the past falsified ones in Nigeria [2]. ...
Census in most countries has been faced with various natural and human made barriers. Thus, the aim of this research is to develop a systematic, coordinated, and responsive database which will adequately interact with a web application by harnessing the strengths of computational science and biometrics. The programming language employed in the development of this web-based application was the C#.NET programming language. Microsoft Visual Studio was used as an integrated environment for the development of this tool. Microsoft SQL Server (2005) served as a relational database management application for handling the data used in this research. From the results obtained from this research work, it had shown that with design and implementation of a secured system information countries can make informed decisions for effective policy, planning and management of their ever-increasing populace and economy.
In 2017 a seemingly small change in Pakistan's questionnaire for the upcoming national census sparked vociferous debates about religious identity and the politics of recognition. The questionnaire added “Scheduled Caste” as a separate religion, whereas previously it had appeared as a Hindu subcategory. Some saw this bureaucratic shift as a cynical attempt to further diminish Pakistan's precarious Hindu minority, reopening old wounds about religious nationalism. Anti‐caste progressives, however, saw an opportunity to imagine alternative political horizons for minority citizenship. How do untimely state projects render new political aspirations legible? As shown through ethnographic attention to rumors, enumerative practices, and census campaigns, the tools of bureaucratic documentation can reactivate unsettled histories, helping people imagine new possibilities from the state's margins.
This paper studies the role of religion in driving radicalism in northern Nigeria, based on the example of Boko Haram. It examines how Islam is instrumentalised by the leaders of the organisation to earn legitimacy, radicalise and mobilise new adherents. It also analyses the ways in which spiritual matters motivate ordinary people’s support for the organisation. It discusses how Muhammad Yusuf and Abubakar Shekau, the two most charismatic leaders of the organisation, exploited religion to justify their violent actions. Furthermore, it traces the methods in which the former utilised religion and the weakness of any secular tradition in northern-Nigerian society, driving a collective identity based on an ‘us versus them’ concept and instrumentalising the sense of humiliation of northern-Nigerian Muslims and the victimising of co-believers.
The Yoruba, predominantly of southwest Nigeria, comes with a long history of deep cultural consciousness and identity defined by the omoluabi essence – a sense of, commitment to, and pride in pristine and honorable conduct, individually and corporately. This paper interrogates the different, yet intricately linked perspectives articulated in Encyclopedia of the Yoruba on the cosmology, culture, and sociology of the Yoruba; the impact of modernity on its being; and the basis of the resilience of much of its wider cultural forms in different spatial and temporal contexts. It notes that the basic outline of the Yoruba culture predates its contact with the West, and is indeed comparable to the best of the latter in significant respects. A more autochthonous existence for the Yoruba, predicated upon this uniquely profound and composite cultural essence, within the Nigerian federation, has limitless possibilities for social cohesion and advancement of the development agenda.
The cancellation of the Canadian census long-form questionnaire in 2010 and its subsequent reinstatement in 2015 resulted in a vigorous international debate on the future of the mandatory census. Questions concerning state invasions of personal privacy, party political interference and public trust and cooperation in state data-gathering were raised. As a result, alternative forms of demographic data collection were explored and the experiences of other countries examined. National population registers and non-mandatory surveys offered alternatives, but each had their own distinct disadvantages. South Africa has continued to conduct mandatory detailed censuses since 1994 and the enumerations have encountered little political opposition because they are presented as essentially nation-building exercises providing credible and relevant data, upon which national policies may be based and monitored. At present there is little incentive to change the current format of statistical collection in the absence of a viable alternative.
The study examined the perception of Nigerian elites on the role of the Nigerian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) in foreign policy formulation and implementation. It investigated how the nature and structure of the Nigerian State shaped the nation's foreign policy bureaucracy as represented by the MFA. The study employed primary and secondary data. Primary data were collected through unstructured interview. Respondents were purposively selected from the academia as well as from among the senior officers of the MFA, the Nigerian Institute of International Affairs (NIIA) and the Institute for Peace and Conflict Studies (IPCS) totaling 25 altogether. The eligibility criteria included knowledge of and contribution to the subject matter, as well as expertise and active participation in Nigeria's foreign policy process. Secondary data were sourced from official documents, books, journals, newspapers, news magazines, and Internet-based materials. Data were analyzed using thematic content analysis. From the result, 75% of respondents perceived the MFA as simply a rubber-stamp for the desires and preferences of the President and their kitchen cabinet. 65% of respondents held the view that the Federal Cabinet, National Assembly, think-tanks, and research-based institutions that should be decision units alongside the MFA, appeared to be for the most part, sidelined in foreign policy making. About 60% of respondents submitted that the political, socio-economic, religious, linguistic and ethnical configuration of the Nigerian state and its characteristic differences, impinged on foreign policy decisions and pursuits. The study concluded that the role of Nigeria's Ministry of Foreign Affairs in many cases was undermined. It was seen to be more visible in foreign policy implementation than in decision-making; allowed only marginal roles in decision making or simply used as mere administrative machinery to implement the desires and preferences of the political head and their kitchen cabinet.
Nigeria's last census was in 2006. If the decennial rule is followed, the country is barely three years away from another headcount. In this paper, we examine the technical and political aspects of that census in order to derive lessons for subsequent censuses. The focus is not on the census results but rather on the processes leading up to and including the actual enumeration. We describe the connections between population size, revenue allocation and political representation as a means of understanding the social and political dynamics that could undermine the execution of a technically adequate census. These connections are examined through reference to logistic, recruitment and enumeration procedures of the 2006 Nigerian Census. We argue that, like most post-independence Censuses before it, there were motivation and opportunities for manipulating the Census figures. These parameters have not changed.
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