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Public opinion as a dependent variable: A framework for analysis
Political Communication
Abstract
This paper outlines an approach to examining how public opinion is taken into consideration by political and governmental leaders and reviews recent studies that have followed this approach to evaluate the extent to which public opinion is subject to manipulation by political elites in diverse circumstances. The central idea of this approach is to treat public opinion as a “dependent variable” and to examine the role of the mass media in linking elite initiatives and the public. Instead of starting with polls that presume public opinion is an independent force, we start with elites and presume that they try to manipulate public opinion through the mass media and by other means. First, we look at why the emphasis on the independent nature of public opinion has become so prominent in political science. We argue here that viewing public opinion as a dependent variable is a more promising perspective. Next, we review and evaluate a number of studies that attempt to demonstrate the fruitfulness of our suggested approach. Each of the studies analyzed focuses on the initiatives of political elites and monitors the success of their efforts with targeted groups. These studies demonstrate the conditions that favor elite control as well as the opportunities for citizens to limit such control. In our conclusion, we outline a theory of the role of public opinion in modern mass democracies.
... An alternative view of the press emerged, highlighting the reasons why the press has difficulty fulfilling a watchdog role (Bennett, 1983). Media institutions receive pressure from governments and ruling elites to generate public support for their policy decisions (Brown & Facciola, 1991;Kieh, 1990;Margolis & Mauser, 1989;Parenti, 1989;Qualter, 1962). For example, U.S. administrations have strategically used the news media to create public support for foreign policy by selectively providing the media with information that supports the government's viewpoint (Kieh, 1990;Parenti, 1989;Qualter, 1962). ...
... Fourth, the Irangate controversy stimulated the American public's interest in the Tower Commission Report. Reports of government policy are believed to have an important influence on public opinion (Margolis & Mauser, 1989). ...
The relationship between the United States and Iran has had an important influence on world affairs during the past two decades. Accordingly, the U.S. news media have an instrumental role in portraying U.S.‐Iran relations to the public. The Iranian Revolution and hostage crisis of 1979–1981, the TWA hijacking of 1985, the Irangate controversy of 1986–1987, and the Persian Gulf War of 1990–1991 are examples of important media events that have impacted public opinion regarding U.S. policy toward Iran. This research analyzes government and print media portrayals of the Reagan administration's U.S.‐Iran policy during Irangate. Results supported the prediction that the print media would fulfill their “watchdog” function by providing more critical portrayals of the United States' policy toward Iran than the Tower Commission Report, an investigative document published by President Reagan's Special Review Board. Among the three leading newspapers analyzed, there was significant diversity in the reporting of U.S.‐Iran relations. Results indicate the Reagan administration's attempt to “spin” its version of Irangate did not successfully pressure the media to neglect their watchdog role. Although the Tower Commission Report was less critical of U.S. policy toward Iran than the print media, all four print media sources portrayed the Reagan administration's policy as a flawed approach that degenerated into trading arms for hostages. Implications of these findings for future research are discussed.
... public opinion by the elite (Margolis and Mauser, 1989). Public opinion has a substantial impact on voters' impression of officials. ...
When analyzing the viewpoints of voters towards policymakers from psychological and sociological standpoints, it is essential to assess the impact of public opinion, the perceived level of responsiveness of the political system, and the manipulation of public opinion by the elite (Margolis and Mauser, 1989). Public opinion has a substantial impact on voters' impression of officials. In a democratic system, politicians are obligated to consider the opinions and perspectives of the general public. Nevertheless, studies have shown that political leaders possess the ability to shape public sentiment by using diverse strategies, such as leveraging mass media. This manipulation may influence voters' impressions of lawmakers and their decision-making process. Furthermore, it is greatly influenced by the way people view the degree to which politicians are responsive to the political system. Their confidence in politicians may diminish, so undermining their faith in the significance and efficacy of their votes. Doubts about the political system's receptiveness to citizens' concerns and wants might erode their trust. Ultimately, the examination of voters' psychological and sociological perspectives on policymakers reveals the significance of the general public, the impact of influential individuals, and the perceived level of effectiveness of the political system. This research emphasizes the challenge of comprehending the correlation between voters and politicians. The significance of accurate weather prediction is often disregarded in the contemporary era characterized by rapid changes. The perspectives of voters about policy makers should be duly considered. In the current dynamic global landscape, it is crucial for voters to possess an accurate perception of policy makers, as well as a thorough comprehension of their stance on policy matters. Policy makers must take into account the psychological and sociological factors that impact voters. They need to understand the level of responsiveness of the political system and how voters' perception of the system's value directly influences their voting behavior. Policymakers should acknowledge the significant influence of public sentiment on women's rights in determining the efficacy and credibility of programs and representative institutions. Policymakers should conduct an inquiry into the social and psychological determinants that impact voters. Amidst the fast-paced evolution of our contemporary society, it is of utmost importance for voters to possess a precise comprehension of the viewpoints held by politicians. Policymakers must consider the psychological and social variables that impact voting behavior.
... Public opinion has become a reality and a constructing variable of municipal recommendation. The sources of influence come in different forms, such as the citizen's perceived value, the citizen's satisfaction of the citizen, and the loyalty of the voter (Margolis and Mauser 1989). Therefore, understanding these sources is essential to adapt the agents' and institution's public action and policy. ...
This paper explores which variables are more significant in municipal executive recommendation by citizens. We estimated the influence of public dimensions, such as municipe loyalty, municipe satisfaction, and municipe perceived value in municipal executive recommendation by citizens. Then, we tried to understand if the citizen’s opinions influenced the evaluation of the municipal executive recommendation. The parishes of the municipality of Valongo were selected and analyzed, namely the parishes of Alfena, Campo e Sobrado, Valongo, and Ermesinde, and a total of 998 questionnaires were collected. Data were collected in November 2020 in the different parishes under study. It was concluded that all studied dimensions were statistically significant in the final structural estimated model. The structural results point to municipe loyalty and municipe satisfaction dimensions having a direct, positive, and statistically significant influence on municipal executive recommendation. On the other side, the municipe perceived value dimension has a direct positive but not statistically significant influence on municipal executive recommendation. This study showed that a loyal and satisfied citizen recommends the continuity of the municipal executive in the city’s political leadership in which he or she lives. Therefore, for the municipal executive administration, it is fundamental to know which dimensions the society considers most important in order to be able to remain in the management of the shared destinies of a city. In this sense, political decisions throughout the mandates can be directed, on the one hand, to the satisfaction and loyalty of the citizens and, on the other hand, to the balanced management of the destinies of this type of public entity.
... The means to do so is to intervene in the population's perception. Not surprisingly, many studies establish the relationship between manipulation and perception at the level of a critical mass or public opinion (Harambam 2021;Kerby and Marland 2015;Koppang 2009;Margolis and Mauser 1989;McGraw 1998;Syuntyurenko 2015). Whatever the dynamics or sociodynamics, the stimuli for the creation of a law of which Nagel speaks could well be concealed. ...
The objective of this article is to answer the question of when an increase in criminal legislation is necessary. To this end, a review was conducted on the positions that deal directly or peripherally with increases in criminal legislation, with a focus on how these positions relate to increases, such as the more general positions related to “law and social change”, as well as the more specific positions related to penal inflation and “penal populism”. Special reference will be made to the expansion thesis, which, in general, has been well received in Ibero-America. In the second section of this study, the answer to the question is addressed, considering elements from the “law and social change” approach and Sutherland’s reflections on white-collar criminality.
... Risse (2010, 234) pointed out that " the European Community of communication is almost exclusively populated by elites rather than by civil society. " Margolis and Mauser (1989, 87) observed that public opinion " is dependent on elite initiatives that are linked to the public via the mass media and other means " – hence the course of events in this arena is controlled by the elite, while the citizens are limited merely to aĴ empts to limit that control, and may struggle not to feel alienated (Knobloch 2011). Risse, among others, noted a cultural cleavage, a democratic defi cit due to the fear of the elites to start a public debate, rock the boat and wake a sleeping giant (Risse 2010, 240-242). ...
In contexts of multi-level governance, such as we fi nd
in the European Union, where elites are more active in the
public sphere, it is particularly crucial to assess whether
citizens’ views correspond to the views of the elites who
claim to represent them. This article compares the views of
elites with the views of representative samples of citizens,
with a focus on their views on ethno-national, religious
and sexual diversity. Findings confi rm relationships between
elite/citizens views and revealed several rules: Firstly,
ethnic and ideological groups which were commonly
rejected from neighbourhoods were recognised by elites
as relevant for social diversity. Secondly, the most accepted
migrant workers by citizens were also viewed as most
relevant for social diversity by elites. Finally, sexual diversity
manifested a more complex relationship – where gays are
most accepted, they are either viewed by elites as highly
relevant (Austria, Denmark) or irrelevant for social diversity
(Czech Republic, France, Italy, Spain). In countries with high
public rejection of gays, LGBT tend to be viewed by elites
as very relevant (Turkey, Bulgaria, Estonia). Elite views of
relevance push the public to a greater tolerance; public
intolerance increases recognition of relevance of
marginalised groups.
... The extensive similarity of public attitudes suggests that the reason for the stricter gun laws in Canada depends more upon differences in political élites and political institutions than any real differences in public opinion (Mauser and Margolis 1992). I will examine the politics of gun control in Canada using a model of " public opinion as a dependent variable " (Margolis and Mauser 1989b). In this model, we argue that institutional élites are much more powerful in determining public policy than the general public, and that opinions expressed in the mass media tend to reflect these institutional voices, not those of independent analysts or the citizens in general. ...
The relative importance of public opinion in shaping foreign policy is a central area of research in international relations and public policy. This article aims to show how public opinion has influenced South Korea’s foreign-policy decision-making process and explores unique aspects of the Korean foreign policy. To this end, the article argues that the THAAD deployment and the General Security of Military Information Agreement (GSOMIA) are examples of foreign policies that were influenced by the traumatic memory of historical events, focusing on four variables: stage of the policy process, strength of the opposition, an imminent sense of threat, and the impact of national trauma. The theoretical framework presented in this study will contribute to a more analytical understanding of the relationship between public opinion and foreign policy in many states.
This article contributes to the theoretical and methodological discussion on textual-contextual analysis in political communication research and in particular on the discursive construction of European Union (EU). It argues that taking into consideration both text and context throughout an analysis of the process of production enables to observe the relation between the social and the linguistic. It opens up a non-deterministic perspective for the analysis of the above relation. The paper rests upon an empirical study on the production of discourses for the campaign of European Parliament elections. The use of such a multilevel approach adds important elements to the research findings. Particularly, in terms of showing on the one hand how power relations within Europarties results to the construction of common European Identities in different EU states. On the other hand, how professionalization of political communication reinforces discursive dissimilarities between parties of the same ideological family in different EU states.
In contexts of multi-level governance, such as we find in the European Union, where elites are more active in the public sphere, it is particularly crucial to assess whether citizens’ views correspond to the views of the elites who claim to represent them. This article compares the views of elites with the views of representative samples of citizens, with a focus on their views on ethno-national, religious and sexual diversity. Findings confirm relationships between elite/citizens views and revealed several rules: Firstly, ethnic and ideological groups which were commonly rejected from neighbourhoods were recognised by elites as relevant for social diversity. Secondly, the most accepted migrant workers by citizens were also viewed as most relevant for social diversity by elites. Finally, sexual diversity manifested a more complex relationship – where gays are most accepted, they are either viewed by elites as highly relevant (Austria, Denmark) or irrelevant for social diversity (Czech Republic, France, Italy, Spain). In countries with high public rejection of gays, LGBT tend to be viewed by elites as very relevant (Turkey, Bulgaria, Estonia). Elite views of relevance push the public to a greater tolerance; public intolerance increases recognition of relevance of marginalised groups.
This study examines the consistency between public
opinion and public policy during the period 1994–2001 by matching
responses to national survey questions on 230 issues with enacted policy
proposals on the same issues. Policy outcomes were consistent with
majority opinion 49 per cent of the time. This represents a significant
drop from 69 per cent during the Mulroney years (1985–1993). Low
opinion-policy consistency since 1994 is primarily attributable to
divergences between public majorities that are increasingly supportive of
a change toward the right and the policies of Jean Chrétien that
are more leftist and status quo oriented than those of his predecessor. We
argue that these divergences go largely unnoticed by the public because
they tend to occur on low-profile issues. On the other hand, the evidence
suggests a much tighter correlation between opinion and policy on a small
number of high-profile issues of which the public is much more aware,
thereby creating the appearance of attentiveness to Canadian public
opinion.
This paper considers the relationship of public opinion and demonstrations to the passage of federal civil rights legislation
since World1 War II. Congress passed such legislation when substantial majorities of the population favored equal rights and
the proportion favoring equal rights was clearly increasing. The evidence is consistent with the notionthat civil rights demonstrations
played a significant role in the passage of the legislation. Both demonstrations andchanges in public opinion appear to have
been necessary components of the drive to provoke congressional action.
This article analizes an exploratory survey, conducted in Vancouver, on public attitudes towards industrial democracy.
The authors of the American Voter concluded that the distribution of opinions on current issues was not very important for explaining the vote of the large bulk of the American electorate. Recent studies purporting to demonstrate the increasing prevalence of issue voting in the 1960s and early 1970s fail to present evidence to satisfy the criteria for issue voting upon which the conclusions of the American Voter were based. Worse yet, the evidence of these newer studies fails to satisfy even the studies' own alternative criteria for issue voting. The apparent “increases” in issue voting prove to be largely artifacts of the measures employed or misinterpretations of the evidence adduced. When it comes to translating his issue preferences into voting choices, the average voter remains as confused as ever
The concept of power remains elusive despite the recent and prolific outpourings of case studies on community power. Its elusiveness is dramatically demonstrated by the regularity of disagreement as to the locus of community power between the sociologists and the political scientists. Sociologically oriented researchers have consistently found that power is highly centralized, while scholars trained in political science have just as regularly concluded that in “their” communities power is widely diffused. Presumably, this explains why the latter group styles itself “pluralist,” its counterpart “elitist.”
There seems no room for doubt that the sharply divergent findings of the two groups are the product, not of sheer coincidence, but of fundamental differences in both their underlying assumptions and research methodology. The political scientists have contended that these differences in findings can be explained by the faulty approach and presuppositions of the sociologists. We contend in this paper that the pluralists themselves have not grasped the whole truth of the matter; that while their criticisms of the elitists are sound, they, like the elitists, utilize an approach and assumptions which predetermine their conclusions. Our argument is cast within the frame of our central thesis: that there are two faces of power, neither of which the sociologists see and only one of which the political scientists see.
Sumario: The Marxian doctrina -- Can capitalism survive? -- Can socialism work? -- Socialism and democracy -- A historical sketch of socialist parties -- Prefaces and comments on later developments
The Future of Public Opinion Research
- Richard G Niemi
Role of the Mass Media
- Qualter