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A preliminary assessment of the socio‐economic and environmental impacts of recent changes in winter snow cover in Scotland
Abstract
Changes in the spatial extent and duration of winter snow‐cover, both in Scotland and in a wider global context, have a number of socio‐economic and environmental implications. Evidence from Scottish climatological stations appears to suggest that the most marked decease in the number of days with snow lying has occurred since the late 1970s. Information on the effects of these changes was gathered using a questionnaire which was sent to key stakeholders. Responses suggest deleterious effects on winter recreation and sports, upland habitats and flood regimes in Scottish rivers. An extended snow‐free season has affected access to, and management of, Scottish land.
... Potential for increased slower moving, longer lived storms -longer duration of precipitation delivery (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased erosion from exposure to successive storms (Thorne, 2014) Rising sea levels with climate change are a major component of compound flooding (Ganguli et al., 2020) Gaps in understanding of how compound flooding will manifest in future how climate change factors will Reduced spring/summer stream flow and groundwater levels from changes in snowmelt; drought propagation (Rivington et al., 2018) Reduced flows affecting energy production; aquatic ecology; seasonal availability of water resources (Harrison et al., 2001) #1 Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multi-hazards #6 Risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system Projected milder, wetter winters in Scotland (Lowe et al., 2018) Declining snowfall projected, although snow extremes may still occur in future (Ballantyne et al., 2021) Snowfall may persist at high altitudes in N and NW where it is cold enough to fall as snow (Brown, 2020) Albedo effect of reduced snow cover (ESOTC, 2020) #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Rising snow line could reduce habitat and distribution (Harrison et al., 2001) Reduced protection from frost: losses of over-wintering crops and plants (Harrison et al., 2001) Increasing wetness impacts on sheep and deer health, vulnerability to parasites; warmer temperatures allow insect infestations (Harrison et al., 2001) Heavy rain on bare agricultural land leading to nutrient leaching; suspended solids, diminishing soil heath and agricultural productivity; Impacted water quality (Kumar et al., 2020) #2 Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Increased quasi-stationary storms allowing longer rainfall delivery on areas (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation episodes in summer and winter (Lowe et al., 2018) and short duration rainfall ) Saturated soil reduces shear strength drives deep-landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) and debris flows (Ballantyne et al., 2021) impacts on transport and infrastructure and delays to travel and freight (WSP, 2020) Saturated soil reduces shear strength and drives shallow soil landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) Runoff and rain leading to river, surface and groundwater flooding: disruptions to power and water supplies; sewer flooding; delays to transport; building damage; impaired water quality (WSP, 2020) ...
... Potential for increased slower moving, longer lived storms -longer duration of precipitation delivery (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased erosion from exposure to successive storms (Thorne, 2014) Rising sea levels with climate change are a major component of compound flooding (Ganguli et al., 2020) Gaps in understanding of how compound flooding will manifest in future how climate change factors will Reduced spring/summer stream flow and groundwater levels from changes in snowmelt; drought propagation (Rivington et al., 2018) Reduced flows affecting energy production; aquatic ecology; seasonal availability of water resources (Harrison et al., 2001) #1 Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multi-hazards #6 Risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system Projected milder, wetter winters in Scotland (Lowe et al., 2018) Declining snowfall projected, although snow extremes may still occur in future (Ballantyne et al., 2021) Snowfall may persist at high altitudes in N and NW where it is cold enough to fall as snow (Brown, 2020) Albedo effect of reduced snow cover (ESOTC, 2020) #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Rising snow line could reduce habitat and distribution (Harrison et al., 2001) Reduced protection from frost: losses of over-wintering crops and plants (Harrison et al., 2001) Increasing wetness impacts on sheep and deer health, vulnerability to parasites; warmer temperatures allow insect infestations (Harrison et al., 2001) Heavy rain on bare agricultural land leading to nutrient leaching; suspended solids, diminishing soil heath and agricultural productivity; Impacted water quality (Kumar et al., 2020) #2 Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Increased quasi-stationary storms allowing longer rainfall delivery on areas (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation episodes in summer and winter (Lowe et al., 2018) and short duration rainfall ) Saturated soil reduces shear strength drives deep-landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) and debris flows (Ballantyne et al., 2021) impacts on transport and infrastructure and delays to travel and freight (WSP, 2020) Saturated soil reduces shear strength and drives shallow soil landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) Runoff and rain leading to river, surface and groundwater flooding: disruptions to power and water supplies; sewer flooding; delays to transport; building damage; impaired water quality (WSP, 2020) ...
... Potential for increased slower moving, longer lived storms -longer duration of precipitation delivery (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased erosion from exposure to successive storms (Thorne, 2014) Rising sea levels with climate change are a major component of compound flooding (Ganguli et al., 2020) Gaps in understanding of how compound flooding will manifest in future how climate change factors will Reduced spring/summer stream flow and groundwater levels from changes in snowmelt; drought propagation (Rivington et al., 2018) Reduced flows affecting energy production; aquatic ecology; seasonal availability of water resources (Harrison et al., 2001) #1 Risks to the viability and diversity of terrestrial and freshwater habitats and species from multi-hazards #6 Risks to people and the economy from climate-related failure of the power system Projected milder, wetter winters in Scotland (Lowe et al., 2018) Declining snowfall projected, although snow extremes may still occur in future (Ballantyne et al., 2021) Snowfall may persist at high altitudes in N and NW where it is cold enough to fall as snow (Brown, 2020) Albedo effect of reduced snow cover (ESOTC, 2020) #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Rising snow line could reduce habitat and distribution (Harrison et al., 2001) Reduced protection from frost: losses of over-wintering crops and plants (Harrison et al., 2001) Increasing wetness impacts on sheep and deer health, vulnerability to parasites; warmer temperatures allow insect infestations (Harrison et al., 2001) Heavy rain on bare agricultural land leading to nutrient leaching; suspended solids, diminishing soil heath and agricultural productivity; Impacted water quality (Kumar et al., 2020) #2 Risks to soil health from increased flooding and drought #3 Risks to natural carbon stores and sequestration from multiple hazards leading to increased emissions Increased quasi-stationary storms allowing longer rainfall delivery on areas (Kahraman et al., 2021) Increased frequency and intensity of precipitation episodes in summer and winter (Lowe et al., 2018) and short duration rainfall ) Saturated soil reduces shear strength drives deep-landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) and debris flows (Ballantyne et al., 2021) impacts on transport and infrastructure and delays to travel and freight (WSP, 2020) Saturated soil reduces shear strength and drives shallow soil landslides (Bevacqua et al., 2021) Runoff and rain leading to river, surface and groundwater flooding: disruptions to power and water supplies; sewer flooding; delays to transport; building damage; impaired water quality (WSP, 2020) ...
... Snow cover protects the ground from subaerial weathering and 32 erosion associated with freeze-thaw and water runoff, including possible additional damage from human or 33 animal trampling (Schlochtern et al. 2014). However, snow cover may also concentrate deposition of atmospheric pollutants with consequent impacts on soil, plant, and aquatic communities (Dore et al. 1992; 1 Helliwell et al. 1998). 2 3 Socio-economic implications of snow cover variability are directly evident in locations dependent on winter 4 sports activities, or where disruption to transport and other infrastructure occurs (Harrison et al. 2001). Farming 5 may experience negative effects through snow-related disruption to land management and food supply 6 problems for livestock, especially in marginal upland areas (Jones et al. 2012). ...
... Following previous studies (e.g. Harrison et al. 2001;Trivedi et al. 2007), snow cover duration (Sd) was defined 36 as number of snow cover days (not necessarily continuous) from October-May; no depth distinction was 37 available to define 'snow cover' as adopted elsewhere (e.g. Hantel et al. 2000). ...
... Previous work also suggested an altitude for maximum sensitivity in Sd (e.g. 37 400±100m in Harrison et al. 2001;750m in Trivedi et al. 2007) which would be consistent with the zone of maximum sensitivity in the logistic function; as this zone is defined by Tm, altitudinal associations will also vary 1 according to latitude and oceanicity influences. Snow cover observations have also been used to infer greater 2 altitudinal increases in northern compared to southern regions (e.g. 5 days/100m in Wales and central England 3 compared to 15-20 days/100m in Scotland : Harrison 1993;Stirling 1997;Trivedi et al. 2007). ...
Snow cover is an important indicator of climate change but constraints on observational data quality can limit interpretation of spatial and temporal variability, especially in mountain areas. This issue was addressed using archived data from the Snow Survey of Great Britain to infer key climate relationships which were then used to reference larger‐scale patterns of change. Data analysis using nonlinear (logistic) regression showed average changes in yearly snow cover were strongly related to mean temperature rather than precipitation values. Inferred change shows long‐term decline in average yearly snow cover with greatest declines in some mountain areas, notably in northern England, that can be related to their position on the most temperature‐sensitive segment of the logistic curve. Further declines in snow cover were projected in the future: a central ensemble projection from HadRM3 climate model showed average yearly snow cover predominantly confined to Great Britain mountain areas by the 2050s. However, inter‐annual variability means some years can deviate significantly from average snow cover patterns. Site‐based analysis showed this variability has distinctive geographical variations and different influences for mountains compared to adjacent valleys. Comparison of inter‐annual variability with Lamb weather‐type frequency and North Atlantic Oscillation index shows the influence of large‐scale airflow patterns on snow cover duration. Most notable is the role of northwesterly and northerly flows in explaining snowy years on mountains exposed to that direction, compared to influence of easterly flows at lower levels. Future changes will therefore depend on dominant annual/decadal circulation patterns in addition to long‐term declines from climate warming.
... Cameron et al., 2014). However, there is evidence of decreasing trends in longterm observations post-1969 of snowfall and snow cover at all elevations in the Cairngorms , with a significant decrease in the number of days with snow cover since the late 1970s (Harrison et al., 2001). Climate model projections suggest a continuation of this trend in upland Britain (Kay 2016). ...
... Changes in snow cover below the 600m elevation have occurred in conjunction with increases in precipitation between October and March, a marked spring warming, and a more frequent occurrence of heavy daily rainfalls and strong winds (Harrison et al., 1999). In the UK, flow changes in small catchments heavily affected by declining snow cover are likely to involve increases in winter flow due to winter snowmelt and decreases in spring flow (Harrison et al., 2001). The effect on catchments with more variable snow cover and on larger catchments is less clear, as is the effect on winter flooding and summer flows. ...
The aim of this study was to better understand the likely impacts of climate change (amount, frequency, and distribution of precipitation) on Private Water Supplies (PWS) in Scotland. In particular, the consequences on PWS resilience to water shortages in order to assess changes in vulnerability due to reduced quantity of water as a result of climate change.
... Altitudinal increases have also been noted to vary from 20 days/100m in snowy colder years to fewer than 10 days/100m during milder winters and to be more linear in colder winters compared to non-linear in warm ones (cf. Harrison et al., 2001). Again, this is consistent with different temperature zones on the logistic curve. ...
... The logistic curve therefore highlights a higher climate sensitivity zone at 0-4°C mean temperature (Oct-May) where annual snow cover duration loss (or gain) occurs at a faster rate. This appears consistent with previous analysis that has suggested maximum snow cover sensitivity occurs at specific altitudes, including at 400 ± 100m (Harrison et al., 2001) and 750m (Trivedi et al., 2007). These different altitudinal interpretations of maximum sensitivity may be accounted for by geographic variations in local temperature profiles, which means that the zone of higher sensitivity can occur at different elevations across the UK. ...
Recent research on snow cover patterns over recent decades is reviewed for GB. Interpretation for upland areas is complicated by data availability issues. Nevertheless, two distinct features can be highlighted. Firstly, a general relationship of average yearly snow cover duration with mean temperature. This relationship is apparently non‐linear indicating that snow cover duration is especially sensitive to a defined mean temperature range. Secondly, that snow cover can be rather variable from year to year, or over multi‐year phases. This variability has been related to the frequency of synoptic‐scale atmospheric circulation patterns including the North Atlantic Oscillation. These two features are used to contextualise recent and likely future trends in snow cover. It is suggested that there may be different patterns of variability in some mountain areas compared to the adjacent lowlands. This is associated with combined effects of temperature and precipitation during exposure to different air masses. Suggestions are made for improving snow cover observations to further investigate these issues.
... In 2010, Scotland received approximately 14.7 million tourists and generated over UK£4.1 billion from overnight visitors (The Scottish Government, 2011). The Scottish ski industry has been the focus of several academic studies (Harrison, Winterbottom, & Johnson, 1999, 2001a, 2001bSmith, 1990). An example of this work is seen through Harrison et al. (2001b) who used a quantitative methodology to discuss the "socio-economic and environmental impacts of recent changes in winter snow cover in Scotland". ...
... The Scottish ski industry has been the focus of several academic studies (Harrison, Winterbottom, & Johnson, 1999, 2001a, 2001bSmith, 1990). An example of this work is seen through Harrison et al. (2001b) who used a quantitative methodology to discuss the "socio-economic and environmental impacts of recent changes in winter snow cover in Scotland". Their survey identified less operational days for ski resorts, with an overall perception that skiing conditions in Scotland had become more marginal, leading to less investment and more opportunistic demand-side behaviour. ...
The negative impacts of climate change for the ski industry have been well
documented. However, research has largely focused on key ski markets in North
America and Continental Europe. The study presented in this paper addresses climate
change perceptions and responses in the more marginal ski destination of Scotland.
Using a qualitative, interpretivist methodology, this paper contributes through a
local-scale, single-site study of a ski area where technical adaptations are not utilised
and which therefore relies on business responses to climate change. Findings suggest
that while local weather is perceived to be a large and unmanageable risk to the industry,
and a downward trend is identified in terms of snow reliability, these risks are not
perceived to be connected to the wider anthropogenic climate change discourse.
Waiting for knowledge to increase before taking adaptive action appears to be the
most popular business strategy; however, autonomous adaptation is taking place in
the form of business diversification, which mitigates against risks including, but not
limited to, climate change. This paper concludes that experiences and perceptions of
climate change will be highly localised and as a result so too will adaptive behaviours.
Marginal ski destinations such as Scotland will be facing a range of non-climatic
impacts which will contribute to their contextual vulnerability to climate change and
capacity to adapt.
... Snowline is the visual boundary between snow cover and no snow on a hillside. Records of snowline over time are important as they can provide an indication of climate, ecological and habitat change (Harrison et al. 2001; Trivedi et al. 2007 ), help understand large hydrological events (Black & Anderson 1993) and justify winter sports potential (Harrison et al. 2001). While undertaking a modelling exercise on snow, Dunn et al. (2000) discussed the accumulation, redistribution and ablation of snow in Scotland. ...
... Snowline is the visual boundary between snow cover and no snow on a hillside. Records of snowline over time are important as they can provide an indication of climate, ecological and habitat change (Harrison et al. 2001; Trivedi et al. 2007 ), help understand large hydrological events (Black & Anderson 1993) and justify winter sports potential (Harrison et al. 2001). While undertaking a modelling exercise on snow, Dunn et al. (2000) discussed the accumulation, redistribution and ablation of snow in Scotland. ...
Abstract Mountain snowline is important as it is an easily observable measure of the phase state of water in the landscape. Changes in seasonal snowline elevation can indicate long-term trends in temperature or other climate variables. Snow-cover influences local flora and fauna, and knowledge of snowline can inform management of water and associated risks. Between 1945 and 2007 voluntary observers collected a subjective record of snow cover across Great Britain called the Snow Survey of Great Britain (SSGB). The original paper copy SSGB data is held by the Met Office. This article details the digitisation of the Scottish SSGB data, its spatial and temporal extents, and a brief example comparison of Met Office snow-lying gridded data. The digitised SSGB data are available from the Met Office authors.
... Types of interactions are presented according to the division levels of the Common International Classification of Ecosystem Services (CICES, V5.1; Haines-Young and Potschin, 2018). Potential loss of aesthetic value and scenic beauty due to species declines and scenic view deterioration or environmental degradation (e. g., glacier retreat) Antonsen et al., 2022;Hemingson et al., 2022;Inglis and Vukomanovic, 2020;Mameno et al., 2022;Salim et al., 2021 Emotional impacts, loss of identities, traditional customs and knowledge, and cultural practices and sites due to changing environments Ellis and Albrecht, 2017;Kumar et al., 2021;McNamara et al., 2021a;Westoby et al., 2022 Biodiversity decline and potential shifts in ecosystems in culturally and historically important landscapes, e.g., shrubland as being part of traditional agricultural systems in Western Europe Wessel et al., 2004 Symbolic, and spiritual interactions, non-use value Potential loss of culturally significant species or decline in availability of ornaments and ritual products threatening spiritual values, religious and cultural practices Axelsson et al., 2021;Cámara-Leret et al., 2019;Gauer et al., 2021;Gurung et al., 2021;Oakes et al., 2016 Climate-related changes affecting spiritual worlds and entities, e.g., via alterations in mountain glaciers and snow landscapes representing worshiped local deities, or deteriorating environments impacting relationships with nature and religious practices Kumar et al., 2021;Shijin and Dahe, 2015 Increases in natural capacities Physical, intellectual, symbolic, and spiritual interactions Increase in habitat suitability for culturally relevant species, or abundance of new emergent species increasing opportunities for humannature interactions Case et al., 2020;Ding et al., 2016;van Putten et al., 2014 Cultural practices and interactions Changes in cultural practices, activities, and uses Physical interactions Extreme events and environmental degradation causing changes in recreational activities and behaviour, e.g., heightened attentiveness to weather forecasts, adaptations of gear, and change of activity or substitution Harrison et al., 2001;McCreary et al., 2019;Nilsson and Gössling, 2013 Intellectual, symbolic, and spiritual interactions ...
Despite growing evidence that climate-related environmental changes impact cultural ecosystem services (CES), a profound and nuanced understanding of such changes remains limited. This study aims to identify and characterize how climate-related changes affect human-nature interactions and related non-material benefits. Through a systematic literature review, we synthesize an interdisciplinary body of research by (1) characterizing the types of human-nature interactions affected, (2) recording the assessment approaches used, (3) relating environmental changes to changes in human-nature interactions and (4) categorizing climate-related impacts on non-material benefits. The 192 articles addressed mostly recreation (65%), cultural identity (30%), and aesthetic value (18%), assessing environmental changes influencing the opportunities for human-nature interactions (38%), socio-cultural aspects such as demand, benefits, values, practices, and goods (31%), and both environmental and socio-cultural aspects (31%). Most studies mentioned multiple environmental changes (57%), such as changes in species, populations and communities, weather patterns and climatic conditions, and changes in habitat and environmental quality. These changes had predominantly negative effects on non-material benefits (74% of 302 interactions across the studies), as well as neutral/undefined impacts (5.6%), positive (4.6%), or not significant impacts (4.3%). Mixed impacts were reported in 12% of the interactions, mostly mentioning negative impacts (97%). The impacts include changes in natural capacities, access and security, cultural practices and interactions, as well as spatial and temporal patterns, often resulting in a decline or even complete loss of benefits. To overcome conceptual and methodological limitations as well as to improve the consideration of climate-related impacts on non-material benefits in decision-making, greater efforts are required in adopting interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary approaches to co-produce knowledge that reflects specific perceptions and understandings of change.
... Limited academic work has been conducted into the UK ski industry generally, and specifically its relationship to climate change. The Scottish ski industry has, however, been the subject of several studies (Harrison et al., 1999;Harrison et al., 2001a;Harrison et al., 2001b;Hopkins & Maclean, 2014). Most recently, Hopkins and Maclean (2014) demonstrated that despite local weather variability being perceived to be a substantial and unmanageable risk to the Scottish ski industry and trends of reduced snow reliability, such issues were not believed to be tied to anthropogenic climate change by Scottish ski industry stakeholders. ...
Previous work identified Northern Swedish skiing as a beneficiary from worsening climate change, with its relative improvement in snow reliability increasing its attractiveness over areas of the European Alps. This study advances the supply-side discussion of Northern Sweden as a ‘last resort’ with demand-side insights. It examines whether Europe’s major outbound ski market would adapt its destination choice due to climate change impacts on European skiing. A survey of 296 skiers was administered through the Ski Club of Great Britain. British ski tourists held negative perceptions of the price, accessibility, and quality/variety
of ski terrain in Sweden. These concerns improved amongst those who had visited Sweden to ski, demonstrating familiarity with Swedish skiing may overcome barriers to substituting away from the European Alps. British ski tourists ranked snow conditions as the most important factor in their destination choice, thus snow reliability should form the basis of Swedish destination image moving forward. The majority of respondents (76%) opted for spatial substitution under poor snow conditions, ranking Sweden as the fifth most popular substitution destination, after four major Alpine ski nations, indicating that until climate reliable locations in the European Alps are exhausted, Sweden may not benefit substantially from climate change adaptation.
... (Angerbjörn 1995;Watson 2013a). Snow lie affects the hares directly in terms of access to food and shelter (Hewson 1989) and winter camouflage from predators (Zimova et al. 2016), and will also affect the vegetation characteristics (Harrison et al. 2001 Hewson noted that mountain hares are less likely to feed in areas of young heather with greater than 20% grass cover (Hewson 1989), ...
Records suggest that the mountain hare (Lepus timidus) population on Ben Lomond has declined over the past few decades to the point where there have been no sightings since 2007, and there is concern that they have become locally extinct.
This study uses a multivariate spatial technique known as Ecological Niche Factor Analysis (ENFA) to identify ecogeographical variables (EGVs) that are closely linked with mountain hare presence across Scotland and then uses them to produce a habitat suitability map. The analysis indicates that the EGV most strongly linked with mountain hare presence is the intensity of moorland management for red grouse, followed by annual mean temperature, number of snow lie days, heather cover and altitude. The habitat suitability map predicts that the Ben Lomond reserve contains a small area (~1 km2) of high suitability habitat, and a larger area (~4 km2) of medium suitability habitat, but that this “island” of suitable habitat is surrounded by a large area of unsuitable habitat. This contrasts with the interconnected areas of high suitability predicted in the north-east Highlands, where mountain hares occur at high densities.
Vegetation surveys on Ben Lomond and in an area of the north-east Highlands with a known mountain hare population show that Ben Lomond’s heather cover contains a significantly higher percentage of grass, which has been shown to reduce likelihood of grazing by mountain hares. It is likely that historic livestock grazing pressure, combined with a heather beetle infestation, have combined to reduce heather cover and increase grass cover on the reserve, although these trends are now being reversed by actively reducing grazing pressure.
Ongoing management for heather cover should increase the suitability of Ben Lomond for mountain hares, but the isolation of the site will make any existing or introduced mountain hare population vulnerable to local extinction.
... The threats of climate change on winter tourism, specifically on skiing destinations, include reductions in the depth of snow and in the duration of the winter season (cf. Harrison, Winterbottom, & Johnson, 2001;Scott, McBoyle, & Mills, 2003;Whetton, Haylock, & Galloway, 1996). Beach tourism faces threats of intolerably high temperatures, more frequent precipitation, changes in wave dynamics, and sea level rise (Ehmer & Heyman, 2008;Moreno & Amelung, 2009;Sagoe-Addy & Addo, 2013). ...
The intersection of tourism and climate change has seen significant research over the past two decades, focusing particularly on issues of mitigation and adaptation in the global North. Research output has predominantly been centred on the Mediterranean and Nordic countries and number of localities in North America. The global South has seen significantly less investigation, despite having significantly lower adaptive capacity to the impacts of climate change, and numerous countries with rapidly growing tourism sectors. The African continent specifically has seen appreciably less research than other countries in the global South, despite arguably having the lowest adaptive capacity and projections of severe impacts of climate change to the tourism sector from temperature increases, changes in precipitation volume and sea level rise. This paper therefore presents a review of the existing literature on adaptation strategies of tourism sectors and participants in African countries. The crucial argument of this paper is in highlighting the need for an increase in research into the threats of climate change to tourism in African countries, identifying future research trajectories. The development of such knowledge would assist in the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies for these most vulnerable tourism economies.
... 1870). As the longest Scottish snow data sets (from Braemar) back-date only to 1927, we are dependent on Harrison et al. (2002) to indicate that winters in the Highlands were more severe and predictable in the nineteenth century with snow lying for longer. The same study highlights that severe snowstorms were commonplace in Scottish winters through to 1853, a year which appears to have heralded the onset of a warmer, wetter period of climate in the region. ...
Considering the ‘age of improvement’ (1780–1820) in the Scottish Highlands, and in Sutherland more particularly, the objectives of this article are fourfold: first, to review the motivations of land ‘improvement’ policies of the early nineteenth century as specific to Strath Helmsdale, Sutherland. Second, to identify the impact of these land improvements, together with natural climatic variability, on the catchment's physical processes (hydrology, soils, vegetation and river processes) by using an evidence-informed approach from novel archival data held in the Sutherland estate papers. Third, to use these data to ascertain reciprocal causal relationships between the physical environment, estate policy and population demographics which helped ‘shape’ the Strath between 1780 and 1820. And, fourth, to examine how the effect of land improvement led to the estate's vulnerability and the subsequent response to the recurrent economic depressions of 1810–1820.The key question asked by this article is how far the nature and timing of radical changes to land use and management were inspired, controlled or defined by the environmental processes of the Strath and how far they were motivated by other considerations.
... For example, exposure to sea level rise is likely to cause flooding of some coastal areas and affect infrastructure (Mimura 1999;Parsons & Powell 2001). In Scotland, the Alps, North America and Australia, changes in the duration and spatial distribution of snow may reduce revenue from recreational winter sports (Whetton et al. 1996;Abegg et al. 1998;Breiling & Charamza 1999;Harrison et al. 2001;Scott et al. 2003). In tropical coastal areas, where environmental features such as warm temperatures, coral reefs and beaches are strongly promoted by the tourist industry, global warming could impact on economies that are heavily dependent on tourism (Braun et al. 1999;Agnew & Viner 2001). ...
SUMMARY Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which might have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. This study documents the importance of environmental attributes in determining the choice and holiday enjoyment of tourists visiting Bonaire and Barbados, twoCaribbeanislandswithmarkedlydifferenttourism marketsandinfrastructure.Threehundredandsixteen and 338 participants from Bonaire and Barbados, respectively, completed standardized questionnaires. Warm temperatures, clear waters and low health risks were the most important environmental features de- termining holiday destination choice. However, tour- ists in Bonaire thereafter prioritized marine wildlife attributes (i.e. coral and fish diversity and abundance) over other environmental features, whereas tourists in Barbados exhibited stronger preferences for terrestrial features, particularly beach characteristics. The willingness of tourists to revisit these islands was strongly linked to the state of the preferred environ- mental attributes. More than 80% of tourists in Bonaire and Barbados would be unwilling to return for the same holiday price in the event, respectively,
... Climate change can potentially affect global patterns of tourism because environmental considerations are important components in the decision-making process determining holiday destinations (5). Climate-changeinduced changes in the environment are likely to have economic implications, since neither ecological systems nor humans may be able to adapt to these rapid changes (2,6,7,8). ...
Climate change may affect important environmental components of holiday destinations, which may have repercussions for tourism-dependent economies. Changes in snow cover seasonality, increased frequency of heat waves, coral bleaching events linked to increased sea surface temperature, and reduction of beach size as a result of sea-level rise are some of the possible changes; all of these could have negative impacts on regions where the tourism industry depends on environmental features. This paper's research, a questionnaire-based study of tourists in two Caribbean islands, revealed the importance of environmental features for tourists when choosing a holiday destination. It also highlighted the fact that environmental changes as a consequence of climate change could significantly alter tourist preference for holiday destinations. Potential economic impacts may therefore arise in the Caribbean tourism industry due to alterations of the environmental features that make this region attractive for tourism.
Natural England Evidence Review NEER025 www.gov.uk/natural-england
https://publications.naturalengland.org.uk/publication/6595767901618176
This research studies the characteristics of snow-covered area (SCA) from two vastly different sensors: optical (Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, or MODIS, equipped on board the Terra satellite) and radar (Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) on-board Sentinel-1 satellites). The focus are the five mountain ranges of the Iberian Peninsula (Cantabrian System, Central System, Iberian Range, Pyrenees, and Sierra Nevada). The MODIS product was selected to identify SCA dynamics in these ranges using the Probability of Snow Cover Presence Index (PSCPI). In addition, we evaluate the potential advantage of the use of SAR remote sensing to complete optical SCA under cloudy conditions. For this purpose, we utilize the Copernicus High-Resolution Snow and Ice SAR Wet Snow (HRS&I SWS) product. The Pyrenees and the Sierra Nevada showed longer-lasting SCA duration and a higher PSCPI throughout the average year. Moreover, we demonstrate that the latitude gradient has a significant influence on the snowline elevation in the Iberian mountains (R² ≥ 0.84). In the Iberian mountains, a general negative SCA trend is observed due to the recent climate change impacts, with a particularly pronounced decline in the winter months (December and January). Finally, in the Pyrenees, we found that wet snow detection has high potential for the spatial gap-filling of MODIS SCA in spring, contributing above 27% to the total SCA. Notably, the additional SCA provided in winter is also significant. Based on the results obtained in the Pyrenees, we can conclude that implementing techniques that combine SAR and optical satellite sensors for SCA detection may provide valuable additional SCA data for the other Iberian mountains, in which the radar product is not available.
By studying many different proxy data sources from places around the world, scientists have found evidence of global-scale climate change, from ice ages or glacial periods, when huge ice sheets covered most of Earth, to such as the present, when ice is largely confined to the polar and high mountain regions. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2014), warming of the climate system is unequivocal. This is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures that anthropogenically produced greenhouse gases (mainly carbon dioxide, CO2) are contributing to the present warming of about 1.1 °C that has taken place since the late nineteenth century. Rising sea level is consistent with warming. Global average sea level has risen since 1961 at an average rate of 1.8 (1.3–2.3) mm per year, and since 1993 at 3.1 (2.4–3.8) mm per year, with thermal expansion, melting glaciers and ice caps, and the polar ice sheets contributing. Further warming will continue if emissions of greenhouse gases continue. The global surface temperature increase by the end of the twenty-first century is likely to exceed 1.5 °C relative to the 1850–1900 period for most scenarios and is likely to exceed 2.0 °C for many scenarios. The global water cycle will change, with increases in disparity between wet and dry regions, as well as wet and dry seasons, with some regional exceptions. The oceans will continue to warm, with heat extending to the deep ocean, affecting circulation patterns. Decreases are very likely in Arctic sea ice cover, northern hemisphere spring snow cover and global glacier volume. Global mean sea level will continue to rise at a rate very likely to exceed the rate of the past four decades. Changes in climate will cause an increase in the rate of CO2 production. Increased uptake by the oceans will increase the acidification of the oceans. Future surface temperatures will be largely determined by cumulative CO2, which means climate change will continue even if CO2 emissions are stopped.
Scotland, a country that is part of the United Kingdom, covers the northern third of the island of Great Britain, shares a border with England to the south and has more than 790 islands, including the Northern Isles and the Hebrides. The whole of Scotland was covered by ice sheets during the Pleistocene ice ages and the landscape is much affected by glaciation. From a geological perspective, the country is divided into the Highlands and Islands, the Central Lowlands and the Southern Uplands. With a population of almost 5.5 million, Scotland is a well-developed tourist destination. The activities that are most relevant to the adventure tourism sector are walking/climbing: mountain walks/treks, long distance trails, rock climbing and mountaineering; cycling: cycle touring and mountain biking; river activities: canoeing, kayaking, rafting and canyoning; marine activities: sailing, kayaking, surfing and diving; wildlife/nature watching: boat and vehicle excursions and walking; snow activities: skiing, snowboard, ski-touring, snowshoeing, ice-climbing.
This chapter first defines some of the different disciplines of skiing (alpine, Nordic, telemark, ski mountaineering), snowboarding, and snowshoeing. It then examines snow sport competition before examining participation numbers. The final part of the chapter focuses on specific environmental impacts of snow sports: damage to soil, vegetation, water, and the impacts on wildlife. There is discussion about artificial snowmaking and its environmental impacts. The final section considers the management of these activities and the impacts of climate change on snow sport.
Climate change is likely to have a significant effect on snow globally, with most effect where current winter temperatures are close to 0°C, including parts of upland Britain. There is evidence of decreasing trends in observations of snowfall and lying snow in Britain, and climate projections suggest a continuation of this trend. Although river flows in Britain are generally dominated by rainfall rather than snowmelt, some upland catchments have a significant snowmelt contribution. There is evidence of changes in observed and projected river flows in some catchments in Britain, linked to changes in snow, but it can be difficult to distinguish the effects of snow changes from those of other concurrent changes (climatic and non-climatic). Flow regime changes in catchments with widespread and prolonged winter snow cover usually involve increases in winter flow and decreases in spring flow, but the effect on catchments with more transient snow cover is less clear, as is the effect on high flows and water quality. Snow can also affect a number of other factors of socio-economic or environmental importance (e.g. transport and farming). There is some evidence that disruption due to snow may be less frequent in future, but disruption from other types of weather event may increase. The impacts of snow tend to be worse in areas where events occur less frequently, due to unpreparedness, so there is a need to guard against complacency when it comes to future snow events in Britain, which can still be expected despite a likely reduction in frequency. Further modelling of the potential impacts of climate change, including modelling the influence of snow changes as well as other climatic and non-climatic changes, would aid adaptation and encourage mitigation.
Forecasting seasonal snow cover is useful for planning resources and mitigating natural hazards. We present a link between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and days of snow cover in Scotland between winters beginning from 1875 to 2013. Using broad (5 km resolution), national scale data sets like UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) to extract nationwide patterns, we support these findings using hillslope scale data from the Snow Survey of Great Britain (SSGB). Currently collected snow cover data are considered using remotely sensed satellite observations, from moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer; but the results are inconclusive due to cloud. The strongest correlations between the NAO index and snow cover are found in eastern and southern Scotland; these results are supported by both SSGB and UKCP09 data. Correlations between NAO index and snow cover are negative with the strongest relationships found for elevations below 750 m. Four SSGB sites (two in eastern Scotland, two in southern Scotland) were modelled linearly with resulting slopes between −6 and −16 days of snow cover per NAO index integer value. This is the first time the relationship between NAO index and snow cover duration has been quantified and mapped in Scotland.
In Finland, cross-country skiing is part of the cultural heritage and an important leisure activity. However, its future is uncertain as, according to climate scenarios, southern Finland will be on the boundary of the winter snow cover. Behavioral responses to change raise the question of who will give up skiing and who will be able to continue the activity in a changed climate. In analyzing skiing participation and frequency, this study extends the multiple hierarchy stratification perspective (MHSP) by showing that the socio-demographic variables gender, age, socioeconomic status and living environment have an interaction effect, The results also indicate that female gender, a lower socioeconomic status and an urban living environment are associated with a higher sensitivity to climate change.
Conceptual studies of place bonding have often stopped short of verifying the relationship of scales/models to other relevant recreation behavior variables. The current paper addresses this concern by comparing three models (full, parsimonious, and partial models) of place bonding and their scale measurement to a dependent variable, experience use history (EUH), for degree of predictive validity. Results reveal that the full and parsimonious place bonding models predicted more EUH variance than the partial model. Because the parsimonious model's fit and psychometric properties were as good as the full model, the parsimonious model is recommended over the other models. The parsimonious scale provides researchers with a robust and nuanced measure of people's attachment to place.
The relationship between winter road maintenance (WRM) expenditure and winter weather severity is examined for Scotland. Different approaches to calculating regional winter severity are compared (mean regional, Theissen polygon based, and kriging with external drift). Variables examined were mean winter maximum temperature, number of ground frosts, and number of days with snow lying at 09Z. These were also combined into a modified Hulme winter index (mHWI). A comparison of the regional winter severity with expenditure indicated that geostatistics produced the best estimates of regional winter severity. The geostatistical procedures are discussed and potential problems are highlighted. Cross-validation revealed that using kriging with altitude as external drift estimated maximum temperatures well, however the other variables could be better estimated. Results of the analysis of expenditure and winter severity for Scotland indicate that winter severity is a plausible secondary variable when attempting to explain temporal differences in regional expenditure. The relationship between regional expenditure and winter severity across regions is less significant, but still useful. Regional expenditure responds very differently to changes in winter severity for each region, and base levels of expenditure also vary widely.
Russian winter snow depth data over a 48-year period (1936–1983) are analysed to reveal variation characteristics and associations to Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies using methods of rotated principal component analysis (RPCA), singular spectrum analysis (SSA), and singular value decomposition (SVD) analysis.The study demonstrates that four time scales (4 years interannual, 11.8 years quasidecadal, 20 years bi-decadal and trend) characterize Russian winter snow depth variations. The decadal and longer time scale variations are found to be significantly associated with Atlantic SST anomalies. The trend, which occurred over much of the study region, is associated with SST trends over the northern north and tropical south Atlantic. Bi-decadal snow depth variation over central Siberia is associated with western tropical north Atlantic SSTs. A quasi-decadal variation over western European Russia is connected to a major Atlantic SST variation pattern of opposite signs over alternative latitudinal belts.This study suggests that the connections between the Atlantic Ocean and regional climate may be better reflected at decadal time scales than interannual and seasonal ones, as the dominant variability over the ocean is at slow modes. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
Numbers and lengths of snow patches above 600 m altitude in northeast Scotland were recorded in summer and autumn during the period 1974-1989, and were compared with regional climate in those years. The number of patches and their total length declined from July to October and varied between years. Only two patches survived through the study. Both number and total length were strongly related to winter and spring temperature and to amounts of snow-drift. Areal density of patches increased with altitude up to 1200 m but decreased sharply on the exposed hill tops above this altitude. The direction of snow-drift affected the distribution of patches among slopes of different aspect. Most patches faced northeast or southeast, the same aspect as most corries. In summer, the previous months' climate had little effect on the number or total length of patches in the following month, or on the rate of loss between months. Patch losses in most summers followed a negative exponential decay curve. Our results indicate that summer snow patches are a useful short-term integrative index of climate change. 21 refs., 6 figs., 7 tabs.
Spatial and temporal variations in the Scottish climate are determined, to a large extent, by the controlling influence of the circumpolar westerly component of the global atmospheric circulation. Smaller-scale variations are related to proximity to coasts, the nature of sur-face cover such as urban or afforested areas, and topography. Observations from eight Scottish climatological stations were extracted from the Monthly Weather Report of the Meteorological Office for the period 1964 to 1993 in order to identify any recent trends in climate. The general conclusions reached are that there has been (i) a decrease in direct solar radiation in western Scotland, with some indication of an increase in the east, (ii) an increase in air temperature in winter and spring, (iii) an increase in precipitation during the winter months in north-west Scotland with slight decreases in the east, and (iv) some evidence of an increase in the frequency and strength of westerly winds. These are consistent with an increasing influence of middle-latitude westerlies during the winter half-year which may possibly be linked to larger-scale climate changes resulting from global warming.
In 1995 the Atmospheric Environment Service of Canada (AES) made a major effort to digitize paper records of daily and weekly snow depth that were not in the Canadian Digital Archive of Climate Data. This resulted in the extension of the snow depth record back to the late 1940s at many stations, and the filling of missing data from a number of stations, particularly in the Arctic. This paper describes the database, the methods used both for quality control and to reconstruct missing data, and presents an analysis of the spatial and temporal characteristics of the data over the 1946–1995 period. Principal component analysis of monthly snow depths revealed that snow depths varied coherently over relatively large regions of Canada, with dominant centres of action located over the West Coast, Prairie, Yukon‐Mackenzie, southern Ontario, northern Québec and Maritime regions. In many cases, nodes of coherent snow depth variations were associated with corresponding nodes of coherent snow cover duration fluctuations, with the two time series exhibiting significant positive correlations. Winter and early spring snow depths were observed to have decreased significantly over much of Canada in the 1946–1995 period, with the greatest decreases occurring in February and March. These depth decreases have been accompanied by significant decreases in spring and summer snow cover duration over most of western Canada and the Arctic. The snow depth changes were characterized by a rather abrupt transition to lower snow depths in the mid‐1970s that coincided with a well‐documented shift in atmospheric circulation in the Pacific‐North America sector of the Northern Hemisphere.
The spatial pattern of monthly and seasonal rainfall fluctuations over the British Isles between 1942–1970and 1961–1990 are interpreted in the context of changes in atmospheric circulation. Increases in rainfall in autumn, winter and early spring occur largely in north- western ereas, whereas increases between April and July occur generally in eastern disricts. This is a consequence of an enhanced seasonal cycle in the vigour of mid-latitude westerly circulation. An increased proportion of annual rainfall in the winter halfyear and an associated decrease in the contribution of summer (June, July and August) rainfall are consistent with changes in the seasonal distribution of rainfall and associated forcing factors suggested by coupled ocean–atmosphere models of future climatic changes.
Composite analyses, based on weekly snow-cover charts, temperature, sea level pressure, cyclone tracks and a rotated PCA of daily filtered 700 hPa geopotential height are used to examine relationships between the dominant modes of low-frequency atmospheric variability and mid-winter snow extent over the Eurasian continent. Two of the circulation modes examined have been identified previously and represent the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Eurasian Type 1 (EU1) pattern. A third, termed the Siberian pattern (SIB), has not been identified previously, and describes variability in 700 hPa height over central Asia and southern Siberia. The most coherent snow-cover signals occur in the transient snow regions over Europe and south-western Asia, where variations in snow extent are largely controlled by temperature. Snow signals in east Asia are difficult to explain, but appear to be primarily determined by the availability of precipitation. For the NAO, snow-cover signals are largely restricted to central Europe. This result is initially surprising, as the NAO is associated with large temperature anomalies over a large part of the Eurasian continent. However, east of the Ural Mountains temperature anomalies in NAO extremes are confined to northern regions where mean temperatures are well below freezing, and air temperatures have little influence on snow extent. In extremes of the EU1 and SIB patterns, significant snow-cover signals are found in south-western Asia, where variability in the amplitude of the Eurasian wave train results in large differences in air temperature and cyclone activity over the transient snow regions. No coherent snow-cover signals are associated with extremes of the Siberian High. Copyright © 1999 Royal Meteorological Society.
Relationships between atmospheric circulation and the temporal and spatial distributions of snowpack accumulations in the western USA are examined. Winter mean 700 hPa height anomalies, representing the average atmospheric circulation during the snow season, are compared with snowpack measurements made on or about 1 April at 311 snowcourse 7stations in the western USA during the winters of 1947–1948 through 1986–1987. Correlation and anomaly pattern analysis are used to identify relations between atmospheric circulation and the temporal and spatial distributions of snowpack accumulations, and to quantify the degree to which the temporal and spatial variability in snowpack accumulations can be attributed to variations in atmospheric circulation.
Results indicate that winter mean 700 hPa height anomalies account for a statistically significant portion of both the temporal and spatial variability in the snowpack accumulations. In general, above-average snowpack accumulations are associated with negative 700 hPa height anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and the western USA. These anomalies are indicative of anomalous cyclonic circulation, which produces an anomalous westerly flow of moist air from the eastern North Pacific Ocean into the western USA and increases winter precipitation and snowpack accumulations. Below-average snowpack accumulations at most of the snowcourse stations are associated with positive 700 hPa height anomalies over the western USA. These positive anomalies indicate anomalous anticyclonic circulation which prevents the intrusion of moist air from the eastern North Pacific Ocean into the western USA, increases subsidence, and decreases winter precipitation. Five winter mean 700 hPa height anomaly patterns also were identified that explain the spatial variability in snowpack accumulations.
The number of days with snow cover at Austrian climate stations, normalized by the maximum possible snow days within a season, is denoted n. This seasonal relative snow cover duration is considered a function of station height H and of the seasonal mean temperature T over Europe. When T increases, n decreases and vice versa. The function becomes saturated both for high stations at low European temperature (‘always snow’, n=1) and for low stations at high temperature (‘never snow’, n=0). In the saturated regions, the sensitivity s≡∂n(H, T)/∂T is practically zero, while in the transition region, s is extreme. The observed interannual fluctuations of T are considered here as simulation of a possible climate shift. s is determined for the climate stations of Austria from its snow cover record [1961–1990, 84 stations between 153 and 3105 m above sea level (a.s.1.)] by fitting the data of n for each individual station (local mode) as well as for all Austrian stations (global mode) with a hyperbolic tangent function. In the global mode, s reaches an extreme value of −0.34±0.04 K−1 in winter and −0.46±0.13 K−1 in spring.The implications of these results are discussed. Included in this discussion is the fact that a rise in the European temperature by 1 K may reduce the length of the snow cover period in the Austrian Alps by about 4 weeks in winter and 6 weeks in spring. However, these extreme values apply only to the height of maximum sensitivity (575 m in winter, 1373 m in spring); the actual sensitivity of individual stations located at higher or lower levels is less. Copyright © 2000 Royal Meteorological Society
A study of snow statistics over the past 50 years at several climatological stations in the Swiss Alps has highlighted periods in which snow was either abundant or not. Periods with relative low snow amounts and duration are closely linked to the presence of persistent high surface pressure fields over the Alpine region during late Fall and in Winter. These high pressure episodes are accompanied by large positive temperature anomalies and low precipitation, both of which are unfavorable for snow accumulation during the Winter. The fluctuations of seasonal to annual pressure in the Alpine region is strongly correlated with anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index, which is a measure of the strength of the westerly flow over the Atlantic. This implies that large-scale forcing, and not local or regional factors, plays a dominant role in controling the timing and amount of snow in the Alps, as evidenced by the abundance or dearth of snow over several consecutive years. Furthermore, since the mid-1980s, the length of the snow season and snow amount have substantially decreased, as a result of pressure fields over the Alps which have been far higher and more persistent than at any other time this century. A detailed analysis of a number of additional Alpine stations for the last 15 years shows that the sensitivity of the snow-pack to climatic fluctuations diminishes above 1750 m. In the current debate on anthropogenically-induced climatic change, this altitude is consistent with other studies and estimates of snow-pack sensitivity to past and projected future global warming.
Climate changes currently taking place have impacted upon the pattern of visitor activity and threatened the financial viability of tourism-related enterprises. Previous attempts to evaluate the effects of climate change have been based upon a relatively coarse spatial resolution of climatic variation, which cannot readily be related to the more localised aspects of tourist activity. By combining simple spatial climate models with digital topographic data in a Geographical Information System, more detailed maps of spatial patterns of potential changes in the Scottish climate have been produced which have been related to particular aspects of tourism, such as winter skiing. In Scotland, the indications are that winters are becoming milder and summers drier. Predictions of changes in winter snow cover and summer dryness have been based upon historical analogues. Although lowland areas may experience less frequent snow cover, changes may be relatively less signficant on the highest ground above 1000 m. Upland areas may also see the greatest reduction in dull and damp ‘dreich’ summer days. It is possible that Scottish tourism may reap some localised benefits from ongoing climate changes.
Since 1988, major floods have occurred on several of the largest rivers in Scotland, causing damage estimated to be in excess of US$170m. These events are clearly concentrated in western catchments, which have also shown increased frequencies of small events and increases in annual runoff. A climatic cause appears most likely and may also relate to similar changes observed in western Scandinavia; further work will examine these links more closely.