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A methodological comment on behavioral decision research
... For instance, the crude classification of decision-making behaviour as compensatory and non-compensatory is not deemed to be specific enough, and it is in direct contrast to the amount of detail provided by this approach. In addition, a criticism has also been directed at the frequent practice of trying to explain cognitive processes by aggregating the vast amount of gathered data into some simple statistics (Bröder, 2000). ...
... However, it has also been argued that sometimes these two approaches lead to contrasting conclusions and therefore cannot always be used in a complementary way. Instead, one should choose the appropriate method based on the theory behind a research question (Bröder, 2000). Since both research questions, in a broader or narrower sense, explore how decision makers search for information, the information processing approach has been deemed as more appropriate. ...
This doctoral dissertation makes a twofold contribution to the understanding of psychological processes behind food choice. First, it explores whether cognitive shortcuts, known as heuristics, based on seemingly irrational beliefs can lead to rational behaviours when applied in the right context. One such heuristic, the organic = healthful heuristic, is explored. It is the belief that organic products are more healthful than conventional products. There is no conclusive evidence supporting this belief, also known as the halo effect, where positive attitudes towards organic products transfer to beliefs about specific properties such as healthfulness. Here I propose statistical learning as an alternative explanation to the halo effect, and test this in three studies. Study 1 shows that food products from healthful food categories are more likely to be organic. Study 2 shows that consumer perceptions of the healthfulness and the number of organic products across food categories are accurate. Study 3 shows that consumers perceive organic products as more healthful when the statistical structure justifies this inference. These findings show that consumers correctly use organic products as a cue for healthfulness because they are, on average, 30% more healthful than conventional products. Second, this doctoral dissertation develops a new information search measure which complements existing measures to better describe consumer search processes. One area, which is currently not covered by existing measures, is when information search consists of equal amounts of attribute- and alternative-wise search sequences. I propose a new measure, the Systematicity of Search Index (SSI), which explores information search in terms of systematicity or the proportion of non-random search. Study 4 demonstrates the usefulness of the measure and shows that the SSI can shed light on processes not captured by the existing measures for analysing information search.
... where J R is the judged criterion of an object p (the probe) based on the intercept w 0 and the cue weights w k for the corresponding n k cues. This rule-based model, sometimes referred to as cue abstraction model (Juslin, Olsson, & Olsson, 2003), is quite flexible and does not necessarily imply a compensatory processing of all cues, but can also mimic simpler strategies or heuristics focusing on one or only few cues by choosing appropriate (zero) cue weights (see Bröder, 2000). Each cue weight w k comes from a normal distribution with mean μ k and a common standard deviation σ w , with the following hyperpriors: ...
Research on processes of multiple-cue judgments usually uses artificial stimuli with predefined cue structures, such as artificial bugs with four binary features like back color, belly color, gland size, and spot shape. One reason for using artifical stimuli is that the cognitive models used in this area need known cues and cue values. This limitation makes it difficult to apply the models to research questions with complex naturalistic stimuli with unknown cue structure. In two studies, building on early categorization research, we demonstrate how cues and cue values of complex naturalistic stimuli can be extracted from pairwise similarity ratings with a multidimensional scaling analysis. These extracted cues can then be used in a state-of-the-art hierarchical Bayesian model of numerical judgments. In the first study, we show that predefined cue structures of artificial stimuli are well recovered by an MDS analysis of similarity judgments and that using these MDS-based attributes as cues in a cognitive model of judgment data from an existing experiment leads to the same inferences as when the original cue values were used. In the second study, we use the same procedure to replicate previous findings from multiple-cue judgment literature using complex naturalistic stimuli.
... In laboratory tasks, computerized information-board designs have been used to monitor these search processes, and they are often seen as indicative of strategies used for information integration (Schulte-Mecklenbeck et al., 2019). For example, it is typically assumed that attribute-wise search indicates non-compensatory decision rules (see, e.g., Payne et al., 1993), although this assumption has been criticized for methodological reasons (Bröder, 2000). Furthermore, it has been argued that different psychological principles may be at work in both phases of the decision process Glöckner & Betsch, 2008a;Orquin & Müller Loose, 2013). ...
The Integrated Coherence-Based Decision and Search (iCodes) model proposed by Jekel et al. ( Psychological Review, 125 (5), 744–768, 2018) formalizes both decision making and pre-decisional information search as coherence-maximization processes in an interactive network. Next to bottom-up attribute influences, the coherence of option information exerts a top-down influence on the search processes in this model, predicting the tendency to continue information search with the currently most attractive option. This hallmark “attraction search effect” (ASE) has been demonstrated in several studies. In three experiments with 250 participants altogether, a more subtle prediction of an extended version of iCodes including exogenous influence factors was tested: The salience of information is assumed to have both a direct (bottom-up) and an indirect (top-down) effect on search, the latter driven by the match between information valence and option attractiveness. The results of the experiments largely agree in (1) showing a strong ASE, (2) demonstrating a bottom-up salience effect on search, but (3) suggesting the absence of the hypothesized indirect top-down salience effect. Hence, only two of three model predictions were confirmed. Implications for various implementations of exogenous factors in the iCodes model are discussed.
... eine Urteilsstrategie, wenn eine hohe Ausprägung eines Merkmals die Ausprägung eines anderen Merkmals auffangen kann. In einem nonkompensatorischen Modell führen dagegen bestimmte Merkmalsausprägungen immer zur Wahl einer bestimmten Option(Bröder 2000; Krohne und Hock 2015).Seifert (2014) unterstellt in ihrer Arbeit beispielsweise durch die Verwendung einer multiplen logistischen Regression zur Bestimmung der Determinanten der Behandlungsteilnahme zumindest implizit ein kompensatorisches Modell, in dem der Effekt einer zu geringen Strafdauer durch andere Merkmale aufgefangen werden kann. Tatsächlich war die empi-rische Wahrscheinlichkeit für die sozialtherapeutische Behandlung von Personen mit weniger als 24 Monaten Gesamtstrafe in ihren Analysen aber gleich null, was gegen die Angemessenheit eines kompensatorischen Modells spricht. 1 Ihr statistisches Modell leidet entsprechend an einem völlig überhöhten Effekt für die Kategorien des Strafmaßes über 24 Monate.2 ...
Zusammenfassung
In Justizvollzugsanstalten müssen tagtäglich komplexe und mitunter folgenschwere Entscheidungen getroffen werden. Die Selektion in die sozialtherapeutische Behandlung ist ein typisches Beispiel für vollzugliche Prozesse, die auf solchen Entscheidungen beruhen. Einige jüngere Arbeiten haben die Qualität dieser Selektionsprozesse infrage gestellt, da keine Unterschiede hinsichtlich des A‑priori-Rückfallrisikos erneuter schwerer Straftaten zwischen behandelten und unbehandelten Inhaftierten zu finden waren. Sowohl gemäß Risikoprinzip als auch gemäß der gesetzlichen Grundlage für die Selektion in die Sozialtherapie sollte jedoch ein höheres Risiko bei den Behandelten zu finden sein. Da diese Forschungsergebnisse allerdings lediglich auf einem Vergleich von behandelten und unbehandelten Personen beruhen, wirken einige Schlussfolgerungen voreilig, da die Selektion besser als Prozess verstanden und beschrieben werden sollte. Ein alternativer Ansatz wird vorgeschlagen, der auf Grundlage eines pragmatischen Modells ein besseres Verständnis der Selektionsprozesse verspricht. Eine Auswertung von Daten zur niedersächsischen Sozialtherapie weist entsprechend darauf hin, dass das Risiko erneuter Sexualstraftaten im Rahmen der Indikationsentscheidung eine prominente Rolle spielt und sich die Verweigerung der Behandlung nicht durch das Risiko vorhersagen lässt. Das Ausmaß der Unterschiede im mittleren Rückfallrisiko zwischen sozialtherapeutisch behandelten und nichtbehandelten Personen hängt zudem auch davon ab, ob Inhaftierte, die aufgrund bestimmter Merkmale konsistent keine Behandlung erhalten haben, in die Auswertung aufgenommen werden oder nicht.
... Theoretically, it has been argued that human judgment focuses on one cue in a noncompensatory fashion and follows this cue without integrating further information because people's cognitive resources are limited (Gigerenzer, Todd, & the ABC Research Group, 1999;Todd, Gigerenzer, & the ABC Research Group, 2012). Methodologically, it has been argued that high multiple correlation coefficients of the linear model can occur even when people actually use one-cue strategies (Bröder, 2000;Martignon & Hoffrage, 2002). ...
There is much evidence that metacognitive judgments, such as people’s predictions of their future memory performance (judgments of learning, JOLs), are inferences based on cues and heuristics. However, relatively little is known about whether and when people integrate multiple cues in one metacognitive judgment or focus on a single cue without integrating further information. The current set of experiments systematically addressed whether and to what degree people integrate multiple extrinsic and intrinsic cues in JOLs. Experiment 1 varied two cues: number of study presentations (1 vs. 2) and font size (18 point vs. 48 point). Results revealed that people integrated both cues in their JOLs. Experiment 2 demonstrated that the two word characteristics concreteness (abstract vs. concrete) and emotionality (neutral vs. emotional) were integrated in JOLs. Experiment 3 showed that people integrated all four cues in their JOLs when manipulated simultaneously. Finally, Experiment 4 confirmed integration of three cues that varied on a continuum rather than in two easily distinguishable levels. These results demonstrate that people have a remarkable capacity to integrate multiple cues in metacognitive judgments. In addition, our findings render an explanation of cue effects on JOLs in terms of demand characteristics implausible.
... Note that this general rule resembles the linear integration of cues in Brunswik's (1955) lens model, and weights can be interpreted as cue utilizations. However, contrary to a common misunderstanding, the linear equation does not imply compensatory processing (see Bröder, 2000, for a discussion). Rather, it is a framework that can also model singleattribute-judgments without compensatory integration. ...
Judgments and decisions can rely on rules to integrate cue information or on the retrieval of similar exemplars from memory. Research on exemplar-based processes in judgment has discovered several task variables influencing the dominant mode of processing. This research often aggregates data across participants or classifies them as using either exemplar-based or cuebased processing. It has been argued for theoretical and empirical reasons that both kinds of processes might operate together or in parallel. Hence, a classification of strategies may be a severe oversimplification that also sacrifices statistical power to detect task effects. We present a simple measurement tool combining both processing modes. The simple model contains a mixture parameter quantifying the relative contribution of both kinds of processes in a judgment and decision task. In three experiments, we validate the measurement model by demonstrating that instructions and task variables affect the mixture parameter in predictable ways, both in memory-based and screen-based judgments. © 2017, Society for Judgment and Decision making. All rights reserved.
Zur computergestützten Untersuchung verschiedener entscheidungspsychologischer Fragestel- lungen, in deren Zentrum jeweils die Informationssuche in Cue-basierten probabilistischen Ent- scheidungssituationen steht, haben wir vier neue Experimental-Umgebungen (Szenarien) entwi- ckelt. Diese Szenarien werden in der vorliegen Arbeit einerseits aus technischer, andererseits aus anwendungsorientierter Perspektive (d.h. anhand konkret damit durchgeführter Experimente) vorgestellt. Die vier Szenarien (Optionsschein-, Äffchen-, Quizshow-, Trinkwasser-&-Börsen- Szenario) sind auf die Untersuchung spezifischer Aspekte des Informationssuch-Verhaltens aus- gerichtet. Sie basieren aus experimentaltechnischer Sicht auf einem Informationboard-Ansatz, der jeweils spezifisch für die zu klärenden Fragestellungen adaptiert werden musste. In alle Sze- narien lösen die Versuchspersonen innerhalb eines spielerischen, performance-orientierten Kon- texts eine Reihe gleichartiger Entscheidungsaufgaben: Aus einer Menge von Alternativen müs- sen sie jeweils die hinsichtlich eines vorgegebenen Kriteriums Beste auswählen. Da sie über die Alternativen nichts wissen, müssen sie zunächst nach Cues bzw. Hinweisen suchen, anhand de- rer sie die Qualität der Alternativen beurteilen können, bevor sie eine Entscheidung treffen. Der gewinnorientierte Kontext der Szenarien bewirkt eine Limitierung der Informationssuche, so dass anhand der aufgezeichneten Aktionen der Versuchsperson (insbesondere der Informations- suchreihenfolge) Rückschlüsse auf das Such- und Entscheidungsverhalten möglich sind. Four new computer-based experimental scenarios focusing on psychological processes during information search in cue-based, probabilistic decision situations were developed. For each sce- nario there is a chapter on its technical aspects and one or two on the conducted experiments based on this specific scenario. All four scenarios (“Optionsscheins-Szenario“, “Äffchen- Szenario”, “Quizshow-Szenario”, “Trinkwasser-&-Börsen-Szenario”) examine specific aspects of information search behaviour. From a technical point of view each scenario contains an in- formation board adapted to the requirements of the research problems posed, where subjects ac- complish a sequence of similar decision tasks within a playful, performance-oriented context: Out of several alternatives the one that matches a given criterion best has to be chosen. Initially no information on the alternatives is provided. Therefore the subjects first have to search for cues helping them to evaluate the quality of the alternatives before choosing one. The scenarios are embedded in profit-oriented contexts where every bit of information costs a certain amount of play money. This leads to a limitation of the amount of information searched for. Preventing subjects from consulting each and every available hint is a basic prerequisite for drawing valid conclusions (about search and decision strategies applied by the subjects) based on information search orders.
The exact effect of different moods on choosing strategies in multi-attribute decision tasks is yet unknown since previous work has found apparently contradicting results. Furthermore, different theoretical accounts lead to opposite expectations. While the "mood-as-information" theory states that a positive mood leads to heuristic processing of information and application of non-compensatory strategies, the "broaden-and-build" theory expects more non-compensatory decision-making in a negative mood. To test the predictions of those two theories, we conducted two experimental studies, in which both the mood and the type of information search were manipulated. The results rather support "mood-as-information" theory, so participants in the positive mood made non-compensatory choices more often than participants in the negative mood. The effect was only present in the open information board, where the information was presented simultaneously, but not in the closed Mouselab, where the information had to be searched in a sequential manner.
Menschen müssen ständig unterschiedlichste Situationen beurteilen oder Entscheidungen treffen. Dabei können die Informationen mehr oder weniger eindeutig und die Folgen der Entscheidung mehr oder weniger schwerwiegend sein. Die Psychologie erforscht die Struktur von Urteilen und Entscheidungen sowie Einflussfaktoren und Prozesse, die sowohl „gute“ als auch „irrationale“ Urteile und Entscheidungen hervorbringen. Die empirische Erforschung des Urteilens und Entscheidens hat faszinierende Einblicke in die einzelnen Bestandteile des Entscheidens gewährt, zum Bespiel über typische Fehlleistungen, verwendete Strategien der Suche nach relevanter Information sowie über deren weitere Verarbeitung. Spannende Befunde und die daraus entwickelten psychologischen Theorien des Urteilens und Entscheidens werden in diesem Kapitel vorgestellt.
Schlüsselwörter: Urteilen; Entscheiden; Informationsverarbeitung; Rationalität; Heuristik; Täuschungen; Strategie
Based on eye-fixation patterns, strategies for multiattribute binary choice were classified as holistic (within an alternative) or dimensional (within an attribute across alternatives). In a task environment hospitable to both strategies, dimensional processing predominated. Even for alternatives like simple gambles, which require holistic computations, dimensional strategies were used as often as holistic ones. The dimensional strategies were augmented by two procedures that simplify the computations. These simplification procedures reduce cognitive effort at the cost of a relatively small increase in errors. However, for about half the subjects the use of these simplification procedures led to systematic violations of expected utility theory on certain choices. Both the preference for dimensional over holistic strategies and the adoption of simplifying procedures are compatible with the desire to reduce cognitive effort. We propose that strategies are selected to minimize the joint cost of errors and effort. This article reports a detailed empirical investigation of the information-processing strategies used in multiattribute binary choice. The goal was to use two process-tracing techniques , eye fixations and prompted verbal protocols, to identify the strategies subjects use for choosing between two multidimen-sional alternatives. We were able to identify and measure two main classes of strategies: dimensional and holistic. We further identified two distinct procedures designed to simplify those strategies. In contrast to traditional studies of binary choice, this research focuses on observable strategies rather than algebraic models and on detailed process tracing rather than choice proportions alone. The following choice between two multiat-tribute alternatives typifies those we consider. The members of a faculty committee can award scholarship aid to one of two entering freshmen. They must decide which is the more for their comments on earlier versions of this article; John Conery for permission to report unpublished data; and Larry Rosen and John Tuohy for valuable advice on many aspects of this project. Requests for reprints should be sent to J.
This chapter provides a general background to the studies of decision making addressed by the other contributors to the book. These contributions draw on a number of approaches, differentiated in terms of the aspects of the decision-making process that are the focus of attention and the theoretical and methodological approaches taken when conceptualizing and investigating the process. For instance, some contributions have investigated judgment, others choice, each adopting an approach that focuses primarily on the outcome of these activities or the nature of the cognitive processes that underlie them. In additon to identifying different approaches to the study of decision making, the potential of each approach for developing our understanding of the effects of time constraints on judgment and decision making are elaborated. This provides a broad coverage of issues, putting into perspective the different studies of judgment and decision making included in this volume.
Constraints in resources such as time, money, and information have a strong and systematic influence on choice behavior. Although some of these constraints may occur as natural features of a choice situation, others may be self-imposed by the decision maker, to limit an agonizing deliberation process about a decision problem. It is surprising that despite their prevalent influence, the topic of resource constraints has received little attention in the decision-making literature. For example, only a few studies consider the impact of time pressure on the decision process, and even fewer studies examine the influence of self-imposed time constraints (Mano, 1989). However, the few systematic investigations examining subjects’ judgment and decision-making behavior under time pressure demonstrate that time pressure may affect every stage in a decision process from the information selection, evaluation, and aggregation stages to the actual choice (Busemeyer, 1985; Payne, Bettman, & Johnson, 1988; Svenson & Edland, 1987; Wright, 1974). Effects of time pressure are also reflected by postdecisional variables such as confidence (Smith, Mitchell, & Beach, 1982; Zakay, 1985).
Humans and animals make inferences about the world under limited time and knowledge. In contrast, many models of rational inference treat the mind as a Laplacean Demon, equipped with unlimited time, knowledge, and computational might. Following Herbert Simon's notion of satisficing, this chapter proposes a family of algorithms based on a simple psychological mechanism: one-reason decision making. These fast-and-frugal algorithms violate fundamental tenets of classical rationality: It neither looks up nor integrates all information. By computer simulation, a competition was held between the satisficing "take-the-best" algorithm and various "rational" inference procedures (e.g., multiple regression). The take-the-best algorithm matched or outperformed all competitors in inferential speed and accuracy. This result is an existence proof that cognitive mechanisms capable of successful performance in the real world do not need to satisfy the classical norms of rational inference.
A model hypothesizes why decision makers choose different decision strategies in dealing with different decision problems. Given the motivation to choose the strategy which requires the least investment for a satisfactory solution, the choice of strategy should depend upon the type of problem, the surrounding environment, and the personal characteristics of the decision maker.
Evidence is reviewed which suggests that there may be little or no direct introspective access to higher order cognitive processes. Subjects are sometimes (a) unaware of the existence of a stimulus that importantly influenced a response, (b) unaware of the existence of the response, and (c) unaware that the stimulus has affected the response. It is proposed that when people attempt to report on their cognitive processes, that is, on the processes mediating the effects of a stimulus on a response, they do not do so on the basis of any true introspection. Instead, their reports are based on a priori, implicit causal theories, or judgments about the extent to which a particular stimulus is a plausible cause of a given response. This suggests that though people may not be able to observe directly their cognitive processes, they will sometimes be able to report accurately about them. Accurate reports will occur when influential stimuli are salient and are plausible causes of the responses they produce, and will not occur when stimuli are not salient or are not plausible causes.
This chapter introduces social judgment theory (SJT). It focuses upon the conceptual structure of the framework and traces its development from the roots in Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism to its present form. SJT is a general framework for the study of human judgment. It is a metatheory which gives direction to research on judgment. SJT is the result of a systematic application of Brunswik's probabilistic functionalism to the problem of human judgment in social situations. Brunswik's theory of perception is also called “cue theory.”According to such a theory, a person does not have access to any direct information about the objects in the environment. Instead, perception is seen as an indirect process, mediated by a set of proximal cues. In accordance with this view, SJT defines judgment as a process which involves the integration of information from a set of cues into a judgment about some distal state of affairs. The lens model illustrates an important methodological principle in SJT: the Principle of Parallel Concepts. This principle states that the cognitive system and the task system must be described in terms of the same kinds of concepts.
