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... Psychological researchers also discovered how risk perceptions tend to be heavily influenced by subjective assessments of the characteristics of dangers. Every danger, according to Fischhoff et al. (2000), is marked by certain features that humans take into consideration when formulating their judgments of risk. These features have been labeled as qualitative, or psychological danger attributes, and include: (1) whether an individual perceives the risks from a danger as voluntarily imposed (voluntariness); (2) whether one feels the risks from a danger can be controlled (control); (3) the level of knowledge one possesses about a danger (knowledge); (4) whether one believes the risks from a danger will harm people one at a time (chronic), or whether one believes the risks will harm large numbers of people simultaneously (catastrophic); (5) how fatal one believes the risks from a danger will be (fatality); (6) whether one believes the risks from a danger can be handled calmly (calm) and (7) the level of uneasiness a particular danger instills in us (anxiety) . ...
... Officers apparently judged the riskiness of riots not so much on their probability of occurrence, but rather, on their high potential for inducing fatal injury should they occur. Fischhoff et al. (2000) uncovered a similar finding in their respective analysis, where compared to 29 other dangers, survey-takers (consisting of general public members) rated nuclear power plant explosions as posing the greatest fatality risk. Historically nuclear power plant explosions have occurred sparingly , and though respondents may have been aware of this, they understood that such events present disastrous possibilities for humanity. ...
... Here as well risk was determined more by the magnitude of the consequences, rather than the probability of the event taking place. Fischhoff et al. (2000), in relation to the above finding, explained how judgments of risk are more a product of the numerous stimuli that surround us, including our psychological interpretations of danger attributes, than mere probability estimates. In fact, this hypothesis speaks to the finding that officers within institutions marked by lower levels of inmate violence, which coincidentally were also the female-only prisons, did not perceive less risk than their counterparts. ...
Maximum security correctional officers play a crucial role in the establishment of order within their respective institutions of employment, yet they are also exposed to numerous occupational dangers that can threaten their general welfare. When they perceive high levels of injurious risk from workplace hazards, this cannot only jeopardize their job performance but lead to a poorly managed prison institution. Currently though, few studies have explored correctional officer perceptions of workplace dangers and risks, and even fewer have explored the factors that influence officer perceived risk of injury. Questionnaire data from a statewide population of maximum security correctional officers (N = 649) were gathered in order to examine officer perceived risk of injury from workplace dangers, and the antecedents to this judgment. Results illustrated how officers perceived a high degree of injurious risk from their work, and that their risk perceptions were largely a product of psychological features of dangers. Theoretical and policy implications are discussed. ARTICLE HISTORY
... While only few studies on risk perception of microplastics exist, they discuss different heuristics and concepts with respect to the topic of microplastics. Drawing on the psychometric paradigm (Fischhoff et al. 1979), they analyze the main risk perception features of microplastics that show characteristics of an "unknown risk", since it is a rather new risk and not easy to observe including its potential delayed effects. Furthermore, they discuss how specific perceiver characteristics, such as socio-demographics, reasoning knowledge and fairness, as well as values and worldviews impact risk perception. ...
... The psychometric paradigm (Fischhoff et al. 1979) suggests that different types of hazards can be mapped onto four dimensions across two axes, labelled dread risk and unknown risk, respectively. 2 Dread risk refers to the level to which the risk is perceived as alarming or as having grave consequences; unknown risk describes the level to which the risk is experienced as unfamiliar, new, unobservable or having delayed effects (Steg and de Groot 2018). ...
Plastikmüll ist überall auf unserem Planeten zu finden. Er hinterlässt einen augenscheinlichen Fußabdruck des menschlichen Konsumverhaltens und der Massenproduktion. Unser ungebremster Plastikkonsum und dessen Auswirkungen prägen die gesellschaftlichen Naturverhältnisse in einer so tiefgreifenden Weise, dass wir vom Plastikzeitalter sprechen. Um Ansätze für einen Umgang mit diesem Problem zu entwickeln, müssen wir das Phänomen umfassend verstehen: Die Autor:innen beleuchten es aus interdisziplinärer Perspektive. Sie zeigen, welche Rolle Kunststoffe in unserer Gesellschaft spielen und welche Auswirkungen sie auf die Umwelt und die menschliche Gesundheit haben. https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/deed.de
... While risks and benefits are negatively correlated in literature (Alhakami & Slovic, 1994;Fischhoff et al., 1979;Slovic et al., 1991), the ambiguous nature of AI applications could very well conflict with the current consensus, resulting in distinct mental concepts of what AI risks and AI benefits are. Usually, perceived AI risks center around the misuse of AI by the government or tech companies, while perceived AI benefits might be more related to the application's content. ...
Artificial intelligence (AI) applications are increasingly used in everyday life. Whereas some of them are widely accepted (e.g., automatically compiled playlists), others are highly controversial (e.g., use of AI in the classroom). While public discourse is dominated by perceptions of the risks associated with AI, we take a fundamentally different approach of measuring the perceived risks and opportunities of AI applications considering people's knowledge and confidence in their own knowledge. To this end, we assessed in two studies (N = 394 and N = 437) how knowledge about AI as well confidence in AI knowledge is related to participants risk-opportunity perception of AI scenarios from three domains: media, medicine, and autonomous driving. Results showed that both AI knowledge and confidence in AI knowledge are important predictors regarding people’s risk-opportunity perception beyond people's attitudes towards AI. More specifically, people with more knowledge about AI exhibited a so-called risk blindness in that they were underestimating the risks. On the other hand, higher confidence in ones’ AI knowledge impacted participants opportunity perception. Knowledge and confidence thus open a new dimension of understanding people’s perception of risks and opportunities in AI.
... Noting that a limited budget should be allocated to risk-reduction measures, investments into such measures should reflect the preferences of the society under consideration [25]. Such preferences may be assessed in several ways (e.g., stated/expressed preferences, revealed preferences, and informed preferences; see [25][26][27]). Despite the fact that these preferences may not be optimal [25], they have been found to significantly affect legislative agendas of regulatory agencies [28] and consequently decisions relating to risk acceptance. ...
The potential risks of climate change on the built environment involve large uncertainties. This poses an intricate problem to designers and challenges a long-standing tradition of built infrastructure design. More specifically, designers are faced with this challenging question: how to rationally account for climate change risks when designing a new asset? A framework that holistically addresses this difficult question is missing from the current literature. This study contributes to this gap by (1) proposing a conceptual framework for rationally considering the effects of climate change in the design of these assets and (2) identifying the challenges that need to be overcome to facilitate the transition, and further development, of the proposed framework into practice. First, a detailed overview of important infrastructure performance requirements that are relevant to the proposed framework is presented. The different stages of the proposed conceptual framework are then outlined. The proposed framework progresses in the following order: ranking the importance of the asset, identifying the potential climate change risks, analyzing these risks, selecting a design strategy, and finally evaluating the final design. Lastly, several challenges that impede the application of the proposed framework in practical settings are identified. The proposed conceptual framework and the identified challenges comprise a necessary steppingstone towards addressing this pressing issue and developing a more practically applicable framework for considering the risks of climate change in the design of built infrastructure assets.
We analyze from an environmental psychological perspective which factors contribute to a risk perception of microplastics. While only few studies on risk perception of microplastics exist, they discuss different heuristics and concepts with respect to the topic of microplastics. Drawing on the psychometric paradigm (Fischhoff et al. 1979), they analyze the main risk perception features of microplastics that show characteristics of an “unknown risk”, since it is a rather new risk and not easy to observe including its potential delayed effects. Furthermore, they discuss how specific perceiver characteristics, such as socio-demographics, reasoning knowledge and fairness, as well as values and worldviews impact risk perception. Another important factor are emotions, that are grouped according to consequentialist and moral emotions. Microplastics activate both forms of emotions. While consequential emotions comprise fear, for example about consequences of
microplastics for sea animals, moral emotions on the other hand are linked to outrage and guilt over violating moral norms, such as the plastic pollution of environments caused by humans. Next to emotions, mental models, that is how people mentally conceive microplastics regarding their causes, consequences, and solutions, are also crucial for risk perception research on microplastics.
Risk management decisions in public health require consideration of a number of complex, often conflicting factors. The aim of this review was to propose a set of 10 fundamental principles to guide risk decision-making. Although each of these principles is sound in its own right, the guidance provided by different principles might lead the decision-maker in different directions. For example, where the precautionary principle advocates for preemptive risk management action under situations of scientific uncertainty and potentially catastrophic consequences, the principle of risk-based decision-making encourages decision-makers to focus on established and modifiable risks, where a return on the investment in risk management is all but guaranteed in the near term. To evaluate the applicability of the 10 principles in practice, one needs to consider 10 diverse risk issues of broad concern and explore which of these principles are most appropriate in different contexts. The 10 principles presented here afford substantive insight into the process of risk management decision-making, although decision-makers will ultimately need to exercise judgment in reaching appropriate risk decisions, accounting for all of the scientific and extra-scientific factors relevant to the risk decision at hand.
Managing the societal risks from extreme events requires making informed decisions. Decisions are in relation to the desired values of probabilities associated with possible consequences, what are unacceptable consequences (including defining their type and duration), and who might be exposed to risks. Different dimensions of risk including probabilities, consequences, and its source have been discussed in the literature. Such dimensions shape decisions about risk. However, in addition to the technical aspects, ultimately managing risk requires socially negotiated rules. This chapter describes how technical risk analysis can be integrated with public values. The chapter starts with a broad definition of risk and defines its different dimensions. Then the chapter defines guidelines for principled compromises in managing societal risks of extreme events. The chapter also defines the roles and scope in this complex process of risk analysis, risk communication, and risk perception. The proposed guidelines can support decision-makers in making more informed and more transparent decisions about safety, sustainability, and resilience.
People respond to the hazards they perceive. If their perceptions are faulty, efforts at public and environmental protection are likely to be misdirected. In order to improve hazard management, a risk assessment industry has developed over the last decade which combines the efforts of physical, biological, and social scientists in an attempt to identify hazards and measure the frequency and magnitude of their consequences.**
Partially as the result of consumer and environmentalist pressure, proposals for large-scale government and private projects are increasingly coming under the scrutiny of cost-benefit analysis, decision analysis, risk assessment and related approaches. This paper presents a critical overview of such analyses. It discusses (a) their rationale; (b) their acceptability as guides to decision making; (c) the problems such analyses encounter; (d) how they may be misused; and (e) what steps are needed to increase their contribution to society. The discussion is illustrated with a variety of examples, drawn, in particular, from the evaluation of new technologies.
Whatever their flaws, such analyses appear to have a critical role in guiding social decision making. It is important, however, for both the analyst and the nonexpert consumer of such analyses to understand the errors to which they are prone in order to maintain a critical perspective. Indeed, the institutionalization of such criticism is essential.
Additional research is needed to clarify psychological (subjective) aspects of the analytic process in order to (a) reduce the errors and omissions made by analysts and (b) help policy makers and the public understand the results and the assumptions under which they were reached.
An analogy is drawn between decision analysis and the somewhat older profession of psychotherapy. Both offer a variety of techniques designed to help people function in a difficult and uncertain environment; both developed rapidly, sustained by a coherent underlying theory and anecdotal evidence of having helped some clients. Over the past half century, psychotherapy has faced a series of crises concerned with its transformation from an art to a clinical science. These include testing the effectiveness of various forms of therapy, validating elements of treatment programs and of the assumptions underlying therapy, improving the clinical skills of individual practitioners, and considering the broader political, social, ideological and ethical issues raised by psychotherapy. It is hoped that by considering the issues that a related profession has identified, the approaches it has developed to study those issues, and the (partial) conclusions it has reached, we can facilitate the development of decision anal...
One of the most perplexing tasks that decision makers face is weighing conflicting values, and in particular doing so with adequate sensitivity to 'fragile' values such as esthetic or other intangible concerns. In this series of essays a physicist, a lawyer, a philosopher, an engineer, a sociologist and two economists address this problem in the environmental context, with special attention to the relationship between man and his natural surroundings. Each author has drawn upon his own expertise, experience and perceptions in order to clarify the conceptual as well as the institutional issues involved. The essays analyze how values have been dealt with in environmental decisions and suggest ways in which they might be handled with greater sensitivity. This volume may be looked upon as one step in remedying the 'failure of discourse' which is seen as a major factor in the difficulty our society experiences in dealing with value conflicts in policy areas.
The owners of capital in the United States have successfully transferred most of the costs of industrial casualties onto the working class and the public at large. This has been accomplished by the creation of the privately owned workers' compensation insurance system and the corporate-dominated safety establishment.
This “compensation-safety establishment” has been able to take over most of the federal apparatus created by the Occupational Safety and Health Act of 1970. Nevertheless, workers and unions and their allies have begun to challenge the establishment's hegemony over job health and safety policy for the first time in seventy years.
The level of biologic lead (expressed as the ratio of atomic lead to atomic calcium) in bones of Peruvians buried 1600 years ago was found to be 3 x 10(-8), as compared to 2100 to 3500 x 10(-8) in the bones of present-day residents of England and the United States. The ratio of barium to calcium was 2 to 3 x 10(-6) in bones of ancient Peruvians and present-day Americans. Barium and lead have similar morphologic distributions in organisms, so this discrepancy for lead must result from overexposure of present-day people to industrial lead and not from natural variations. The magnitude of this discrepancy has been confirmed by two different lines of investigation not reported in this article. This new evidence suggests that natural interactions of lead in human cells have not yet been determined because reagents, nutrients and controls used in laboratory and field studies have been contaminated with lead far in excess of naturally occurring levels.