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Reduced caseloads improve probation outcomes
Abstract
Probation practitioners argue that large caseloads limit their effectiveness, but prior research has not supported that assertion. In fact, with exceptions, strong studies of small caseload intensive probation supervision have produced undesirable findings: no reduction in recidivism and increased technical revocations. However, probation standards and practices have changed considerably since this earlier research, suggesting that new studies may yield different results. This study introduced reduced caseloads (approximately 54 medium- to high-risk probationers per officer) into an agency with officers fully trained in implementing evidence-based practices, a combination of supervision strategies based on known predictors of criminal recidivism. We evaluated the intervention's effect on recidivism and technical revocations of probation using a quasi-experimental design (difference-in-differences). We used survival analysis to estimate that the smaller caseload reduced the rate of recidivism by roughly 30%; technical violations increased by 4%. We conclude that reduced caseloads in agencies using modern supervision practices reduce recidivism.
... Aside from a single limited study (Bonczar 2008), no stateby-state comparison has been compiled and made readily available, though APPA has provided limited guidance (Burrell 2006;Hanser 2014). The degree to which excessive caseloads have a dampening effect on supervision quality and offender outcomes has remained a point of contention between practitioners, administrators, and researchers (Jalbert and Rhodes 2012;Jalbert et al. 2010). That said, the work of probation/parole officers encompasses more than supervision of the offenders on their caseloads and focusing solely on this singular metric provides a limited perspective of the occupation. ...
... He further differentiated adult versus juvenile caseloads, with juvenile caseloads being slightly more restrictive. These caseload standards are conservative and may be unrealistic for some jurisdictions but the emphasis on allocation of staff to prioritize supervision of high risk offenders and minimize resources allocated to low risk offenders is universally applicable and in alignment with the tenets of evidence-based practices (EBP) (Jalbert and Rhodes 2012;Taxman and Belenko 2012), even if the exact ideal ratio remains uncertain. ...
... The authors attribute such failures to two key issues; (1) reduced caseloads were not associated with the expected increase in treatment interactions, and (2) increased supervision intensity was focused too heavily on identifying and issuing technical (i.e., non-criminal) violations. That said, probation programs effectively integrating a rehabilitative model were found to have more success, achieving up to a 30% reduction in recidivism (Jalbert and Rhodes 2012;Paparozzi and Gendreau 2005). In essence, reduced caseloads have been demonstrated to improve outcomes for medium-to-high risk probationers/parolees, but only if the increased supervision includes an appropriate level of relevant increased treatment and social work interactions, or an evidence-based hybrid model of supervision (Skeem and Manchak 2008;Taxman and Belenko 2012). ...
For several decades time studies have been used as a decision-making tool in criminal justice settings to assist in staffing allocation decisions. Despite their prevalence, these studies have rarely been documented in empirical journals or subjected to peer-review. Publication bias is a likely issue, with only those providing favorable results reaching a public audience. This study reviews the literature and documents a time study of probation and parole officer workloads conducted in a rural Western state. Results reveal probation and parole rely heavily on office-based interactions with probationers and parolees. An over-reliance on compliance enforcement, substantiated by other research in the state, suggests the transition to evidence-based practices and programs remains an ongoing and challenging process as officers continue to cope with caseloads that exceed national recommendations.
... EBPs emphasize individualized treatment options wherein people on probation and parole collaborate with officers in the development of their case plans to follow the Risk-Needs-Responsivity (RNR) model for supervision (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Listwan et al., 2008;Taxman, 2008;Viglione, 2017;Viglione, Blasko, & Taxman, 2018). ...
... Introduced in the early 1990s, the RNR model focuses on measuring the likelihood of reoffending, identifying criminogenic needs, and tailoring treatment to individuals who have broken the law (Andrews et al., 1990;Andrews & Bonta, 2010;Bonta et al., 2011;Taxman, 2008). Notably, the RNR model emphasizes that justice involved individuals that are at a high-and moderate-risk of recidivating, as opposed to those at a low-risk of recidivating, should receive the most intensive interventions and support as they are most likely to benefit from these approaches (Andrews & Bonta, 2010;Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Taxman, 2008;Viglione, 2017). ...
While the broad goals of U.S. probation and parole agencies have shifted over time, many departments have recently begun to implement evidence-based practices (EBPs) in supervision. Adoption of EBPs, however, requires the support and active participation of line-level officers. To explore officers’ perceptions of both traditional and EBP supervision measures, we surveyed probation and parole officers in seven community corrections departments across five states. Our analyses suggest that officers identify both traditional and EBP measures as relevant to their jobs, and officers generally feel very confident in their abilities to incorporate traditional and EBP measures into their supervision approaches. Moreover, several individual and work-related variables are associated with officers’ perceived competencies for several EBP and traditional measures. Further, officers tend to feel confident with multiple supervision techniques and do not separate into camps that favor traditional versus evidence-based practices. We discuss policy implications of these findings and directions for future research.
... Recent accounts read with striking similarity: There are concerns about high caseloads and inadequate funding (see discussion in Petersilia, 1997;see also Reinventing Probation Council, 1999), which in turn can impact offender outcomes (Jalbert et al., 2011;Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012), increase officer turnover (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012), and induce employee stress (which in turn can feed employee turnover and even higher caseloads, see Lee, Joo, & Johnson, 2009). A 2006 survey by the American Probation and Parole Association reported an average caseload size of 106 (DeMichele, 2007, pp. ...
... Recent accounts read with striking similarity: There are concerns about high caseloads and inadequate funding (see discussion in Petersilia, 1997;see also Reinventing Probation Council, 1999), which in turn can impact offender outcomes (Jalbert et al., 2011;Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012), increase officer turnover (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012), and induce employee stress (which in turn can feed employee turnover and even higher caseloads, see Lee, Joo, & Johnson, 2009). A 2006 survey by the American Probation and Parole Association reported an average caseload size of 106 (DeMichele, 2007, pp. ...
Probation is the most common form of correctional supervision in the United States, yet its history remains largely understudied. This study examines probation’s transformation from private charity to public system through an analysis of House judiciary committee hearing records leading up to the 1925 Federal Probation Act. The data reveal change over time in committee members’ key concerns and proponents’ framing of probation. The results shed light on the transformative nature of the legislative process as reforms evolve from grassroots ideology to public policy. Further, they lend insight into the historical roots of many of probation’s modern-day challenges. The findings inform a dynamic cause and constraint model of penal reform.
... Contradicting these findings,MacKenzie and Brame (2001;also see Paparozzi & Gendreau, 2005) found that, after controlling for potential influences on both conventional ties (e.g., to school or work) and recidivism, increased intensity in the supervision of Virginia probationers led to their greater involvement in conventional and therapeutic activities, and this involvement reduced recidivism. Similarly, research in Oklahoma City and Polk County, Iowa, showed that when responses to violations rested on evidence-based practices that addressed criminogenic needs, the increased supervision that came with reduced caseloads substantially decreased recidivism; also, the number of technical violations increased minimally or not at all (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Jalbert, Rhodes, Flygare, & Kane, 2010). Considered together, these studies indicate the need to examine supervision intensity, number of technical violations, and the treatment versus punitive nature of responses to those violations in relation to recidivism. ...
... Turning back to the formal social controls provided by correctional supervision, the present study points to the need to compare supervision effects for low-and high-risk offenders, and to distinguish between different types of technical violations and the responses to them. Furthermore, the present research is relevant to the many jurisdictions where probation and parole agents heavily supervise some offenders, but where they combine these efforts with case plans that address the causes of illegal behavior and behavioral management strategies (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Jalbert et al., 2010;Taxman, 2008). Finally, the findings underscore the need for future research to separate the intensity of supervision from the numbers of specific types of violations, and alternative responses to them. ...
There is much debate about the effects of punitive or treatment responses to the many women who are on probation and parole. This article examines whether types of technical violations (drug or nondrug related) and responses to them (treatment or punishment oriented) as well as supervision intensity predict recidivism. Study participants are 385 women on probation or parole for a felony offense, and official records of violations and recidivism are the data source. Negative binomial regression analysis revealed that for high-risk women, treatment responses to nondrug violations are related to reductions in recidivism, whereas punitive responses to nondrug offenses are related to increased recidivism. For low-risk women, treatment responses to non-drug-related violations are related to increased recidivism and punitive responses to violations unrelated to drug use are related to decreased recidivism. Study findings suggest differential reactions to common supervision practices depending on a woman’s initial risk to recidivate.
... Many existing research on incarceration-diversion program has focused on outcome prediction and the identification of predictors for successful completion (Loeb, Waung, and Sheeran 2015;Verhaaff and Scott 2015;Loong et al. 2021). Studies have also emphasized the role of probation/case officers, showing that reduced caseloads can significantly reduce recidivism rates (Burrell 2006;Jalbert et al. 2010;Jalbert and Rhodes 2012), underscoring the benefits of proper staffing and manageable caseloads in enhancing program effectiveness and supervision. In comparison, we focus on a process-level view of incarceration-diversion programs, which incorporates ML prediction into a queueingbased simulation model. ...
Incarceration-diversion programs have proven effective in reducing recidivism. Accurate prediction of the number of individuals with different characteristics in the program and their program outcomes based on given eligibility criteria is crucial for successful implementation, because this prediction serves as the foundation for determining the appropriate program size and the consequent staffing requirements. However, this task poses challenges due to the complexities arising from varied outcomes and lengths-of-stay for the diverse individuals in incarceration-diversion programs. In collaboration with an Illinois government agency, we develop a framework to address these issues. Our framework combines ML and queueing model simulation, providing accurate predictions for the program census and interpretable insights into program dynamics and the impact of different decisions in counterfactual scenarios. Additionally, we deploy a user-friendly web app beta-version that allows program managers to visualize census data by counties and race groups. We showcase two decision support use cases: Changing program admission criteria and launching similar programs in new counties.
... More recent studies on ISP programs have shown more promising results compared to earlier studies. An evaluation by Jalbert and Rhodes (2012) found that ISP reduced recidivism by 30% compared to the control group who were supervised by an officer with a more substantial caseload, and incidents of technical violations were only 4% higher for the ISP group. The reason that more recent studies on ISP have proven more effective than older ones is due, in part, to changes in programming within the programs that put more of an emphasis on treatment services, whereas older ISP programs were more surveillance based . ...
The community-based Intensive Supervision Probation with Services (ISP-S) program is one of the prison diversion models funded by Adult Redeploy Illinois (ARI), a state grant program to reduce reliance on incarceration created by the 2009 Crime Reduction Act (730 ILCS 190/) and housed at the Illinois Criminal Justice Information Authority (ICJIA). In 2019, an impact evaluation study was conducted as a follow-up to the 2018 process evaluation and is the subject of this report. All data collection was conducted by researchers from Southern Illinois University at Carbondale across the four Adult Redeploy Illinois (ARI) sites in DuPage, Macon, Peoria and St. Clair. The duration of the accumulation of data was from March 2019 through June 2019.
... Taxman (2002) reports that caseload size studies tend to demonstrate a small effect on recidivism. Jalbert et al. (2010) report that reduced caseloads are only effective at reducing general recidivism; however, reduced caseload size may increase technical violations or have no effect at all (Jalbert et al., 2010(Jalbert et al., , 2011Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012). In the Honest Opportunity Probation with Enforcement (HOPE) model, which emphasizes close monitoring, frequent drug testing, and swift, certain, and fair sanctioning, and smaller caseloads, these supervision features did not reduce technical violations or recidivism compared with probation as usual (Lattimore et al., 2016). ...
With over 4 million adults under community supervision and an average of 30% that do not fare well, an unanswered question is which strategies reduce the likelihood of technical, absconding, and new arrest violations during the early phase of supervision. Utilizing data on 32,335 moderate to high-supervised individuals on supervision in North Carolina, the study found that success during the first 6 months is due to probation officers’ use of incentives to promote positive behavior and swift community-based consequences to address negative behavior, prioritizing treatment services or cognitive programs, increasing monitoring requirements, and using skill-building worksheets to increase engagement and build rapport. Officer actions are more important than individual characteristics, and can promote success for those that are under the age of 31, have more complex needs, and are identified as at-risk for violating supervision. Future studies should explore these concepts more directly regarding their relationship with recidivism.
... As Phelps notes, the effects of community supervision on recidivism "depends (in part) on how much benefit or harm the monitoring and services associated with [it] provides" (Phelps, 2013:59). Extant empirical work supports this contention: failure rates are associated with the characteristics of supervision and the ways that it interacts with individuals' risks and needs (Grattet et al., 2011), as well as an officer's caseload size (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;McKean & Ransford, 2004) the frequency of contact (Aos et al., 2006;MacKenzie, 2006;Petersilia & Turner, 1993) and connections to local service providers (Hipp et al., 2010). In addition, the working relationship or "alliance" between officers and clients has an impact on future justice involvement (Walters, 2016;Phelps & Ruhland, 2021), with failure rates predicted by the client/officer relationship (Blasko et al., 2015;Chamberlain et al., 2018;Morash et al., 2015). ...
Objectives
We test the effects of assignment to a collaborative model of post-release community supervision (PRCS), which emphasizes release planning, prioritizes the officer-client relationship, and invites the client to actively participate in their reentry process.
Methods
Conditionally exogenous assignment of 261 high-risk, male clients to the collaborative Pathways Home Program or a traditional PRCS supervision model. All clients were released from California state prison to PRCS in Alameda County, California, between December 31, 2018, and July 31, 2020.
Results
We find that clients assigned to the collaborative model are 17 percentage points (p < 0.01) more likely than the control group to report to their first probation meeting within the required 48 h following release. In the longer-term, we find that intervention clients are 14 percentage points (p < 0.05) less likely to have their probation revoked during the year following release, relative to those assigned to the traditional probation model.
Conclusions
Results demonstrate that a collaborative model of post-release community supervision holds promise for helping high-risk clients successfully complete their supervision term.
... as compared to the matched non-Support Court individuals, but this difference was not statistically significant. The findings concerning a greater likelihood of revocation for Support Court participants, particularly for technical violations, is in line with prior research (Brewster, 2001;Gill, Hyatt, & Sherman, 2010;Hyatt & Barnes, 2017;Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Petersilia & Turner, 1993;Rodriguez & Webb, 2007;Sevigny et al., 2013). Overall, programs such as drug courts and intensive probation and parole, which increase supervision standards and the amount of contact with participants, typically uncover higher numbers of technical violations, thereby increasing the likelihood of revocation. ...
Impact evaluation of federal drug court
... As a result of heightened caseloads and a shortage of officers, parolees are receiving less supervision than needed for establishing a successful reentry transition (Finn & Kuck, 2005;Gayman, Powell, & Bradley, 2018). This can be noted in the lack of funding, inability to fully address parolee needs, and changes in prison population demographics (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Jalbert, Rhodes, Flygare, & Kane, 2010;Petersilia, 2001). Studies focused on the parole officer perspective have also suggested this could be due to high levels of emotion demands placed on parole officers (Epperson, Canada, Thompson, & Lurigio, 2014;Gayman et al., 2018;Wolff et al., 2014). ...
Parole officers serve a critical role for inmates who are reentering society by monitoring the transitional and rehabilitation process post incarceration. Recently, there has been increased concern among correctional professionals in regard to addressing economic and management barriers of aging inmates. Elderly offenders require unique resources with regard to their health and housing and parole officers represent the initial contact for this population when providing the assistance; however, little is known about the role parole officers play in the reintegration process for older inmates. Therefore, the current study examined the perceptions of 19 parole officers who work with older parolees in a southern state. Through semi-structured, qualitative interviews, we explored parole officers’ primary role in the reintegration process to gain better understanding of demographics, management, and established goals when assisting older parolees.
... Second, our results at first glance seem to support prior research that reducing caseload sizes does not automatically decrease workload (Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012), as administrative tasks accounted for 69% of tasks for specialized officers, who have the lowest caseload numbers, but as we were not able to gather the amount of time spent in these tasks, more investigation is needed. However, specialized caseloads in the jurisdiction do not quite meet recommended industry standards for specialized caseloads sizes, and the majority of the caseloads in this jurisdiction were triple (60) the recommended size (20) (Burrell, 2006). ...
Prior research regarding probation officer roles and tasks has included statutory analyses, time studies, and computation of daily tasks in relation to risk level of offenders. However, there is limited research investigating specific proportions of probation officer tasks by officer caseload type. The current study builds on existing literature by providing an initial investigation into the daily tasks of adult probation officers of a medium-sized, tri-county probation department in a Southwestern state. For all officers, only 26% of tasks involved face-to-face contact with probationers. While regular caseload officers had the largest caseloads, specialized officers were more likely to supervise high-risk individuals. Court officers had the lowest proportion of face-to-face contact with probationers among the three groups. There were some significant differences in tasks observed between specialized and court officers and no statistically significant differences between regular officers and specialized officers. Recommendations for changes in probation practice are provided.
... For example, research has shown that when officers have smaller caseloads and implement evidence-based practices, it can reduce recidivism. 10 The causes of growth or decline in states' probation term lengths are complex. New judges may have different judicial philosophies than their predecessors about appropriate probation sentence length, how to address technical violations, and whether to grant early discharge. ...
With more than 3.5 million people on probation in the U.S., it is imperative that policymakers consider ways to safely shrink the supervision population. This report includes results of calculations of the average length of probation by state in 2000 and 2018, and compares trends in this to population; using propensity score matching, concludes people in two states could have served shorter probation terms without increasing recidivism rates; and compiles state probation sentencing statutes to show that when it comes to length of supervision, it's a matter of "probation by location." The report includes with policy recommendations for shortening probation lengths.
https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/reports/2020/12/states-can-shorten-probation-and-protect-public-safety
... At the time of survey administration, probation officers included in the sample supervised an average of 96.9 probationers (SD = 38.77, range: 10 -280), which is consistent with national statistics on community supervision caseload sizes (Burrell, 2006;DeMichele, 2007;DeMichele & Payne, 2017;DeMichele, Payne, & Matz, 2011;Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012;Tallarico, Douglas, Rosten, & Taylor, 2014). There were no significant differences between participant and nonparticipant demographic characteristics. ...
Probation agency performance, probationer outcomes, and public safety all depend on the successful implementation of evidence-based practices (EBPs). Yet, EBP implementation is short-lived within community corrections agencies. The current study focused on interactions between 834 probation officers and their agencies (six probation jurisdictions) by examining alignment between the use of client-centered communication strategies, perceived agency support, and agency climate. Results showed a significant, negative linear relationship between probation officer-agency alignment with regard to EBPs and agency context. Quadratic regression analyses were used to model the level of the outcome (satisfaction with climate). Taken together, findings suggest agency climate is: (1) most at risk when officers are more comfortable with use of client-centered communication than they feel the agency can support, and (2) not influenced by officers uncomfortable with use client-centered communication who perceive the agency supports their use. Failure to recognize these officer differences can complicate effective implementation of EBPs in community supervision agencies. New avenues for implementation research are discussed.
... To the extent that criminal justice actors are responsible for locating suitable housing options for sex offenders under their supervision , SORR violation rates can be expected to vary by factors such as the size and scope of the restrictions, organizational resource allocation, and caseload. Recent research has suggested that reduced caseloads improve the effectiveness of probation officer supervision (Jalbert and Rhodes, 2012), yet caseload size and turnover were found to have minimal effects on parolee technical violations (Grattet et al., 2011). ...
Objectives
This research examines the contribution of social ecological factors to the variation in sex offender residence restriction (SORR) violation rates, operationalized as a sex offender residing within a buffer zone around a school or a day care.
Methods
Drawing on data from two Midwestern states, we utilize a quasi-experimental cohort-control group design to examine the correlates of county-level SORR violation rates among a cohort of post-SORR sex offender parolees, and three counterfactual cohorts (pre-SORR sex offenders, pre- and post-SORR non-sex offender parolees). We model the violation rate using a series of fractional logit regressions, examining the contribution of housing market, environmental justice, and system resource variables.
Results
We observe that county-level variation in post-SORR sex offender violation rates is directly associated with concentrated disadvantage and the density of residence restrictions. The direct effect of concentrated disadvantage was unique to the post-SORR sex offender cohort. Model predictions suggest that the relationship between SORR density and concentrated disadvantage varies across the study states.
Conclusions
The results suggest that factors found to be associated with sex offender clustering (i.e., housing market characteristics) are not associated with SORR violation rates. Instead, this research suggests a model which allows for the simultaneous influence of environmental justice and system resource effects. Future research on the mechanisms underlying these effects is warranted.
... For instance, evidence suggests that JPOs would make different supervision decisions for youth with psychopathic traits and a history of childhood abuse than youth who lack those characteristics (Vidal and Skeem 2007). Furthermore, overall caseload size and the types of clients JPOs supervise can influence the types of strategies used as well as the frequencies with which they are implemented by JPOs (Jalbert and Rhodes 2012;Miller 2013). Community level factors, such as the availability of mental health services within a given jurisdiction, also affect JPOs' ability to act as a gateway provider (Wasserman et al. 2008). ...
Justice-involved youth endorse high rates of mental health problems. Juvenile probation is the most common disposition in the justice system and juvenile probation officers (JPOs) are crucial for connecting justice-involved youth with appropriate care. We examined the role of mental health competency on the use of self-report case management strategy types (deterrence, restorative justice, and treatment) by JPOs and whether jurisdiction-level differences were relevant. Results suggest that mental health competency predicted use of restorative justice and treatment strategies and all three strategy types varied at the county level. The role of mental health competency in use of treatment strategies is relevant to connecting justice-involved youth to mental health care. Furthermore, a substantial amount of the variance predicting the use of all three strategies was accounted for at the county level.
... Considerable research has confirmed this unintended negative connection of supervision intensity not only with revocations (Grattet, Lin, & Petersilia, 2011; also see Kubrin & Stewart, 2006; Sirakaya, 2006) but also with new offenses (Gill, 2010; Hanley, 2006; Lowenkamp & Latessa, 2004; Lowenkamp et al., 2006; Taxman, 2002). However, when combined with rehabilitation approaches, for some samples intensive supervision produced lower recidivism (Aos, Miller, & Drake, 2006; Jalbert & Rhodes, 2012; Jalbert, Rhodes, Flygare, & Kane, 2010; Latessa, Travis, Fulton, & Stichman, 1998; MacKenzie, 2006; Paparozzi & Gendreau, 2005; Warchol, 2000 ). Despite inconsistent evidence of the connection of supervision intensity to recidivism, a well-specified model to explain recidivism from supervision activities and relationships should consider the supervision effect. ...
Because women offenders often have limited social networks and unique needs, the actions of probation/parole officers providing community supervision may be particularly relevant to outcomes. The present study examined the effects of probation/parole officer relationship style, attention to criminogenic needs, and intensity of supervision on women offenders’ arrests and convictions within a 24-month period. Contrary to findings from other studies, the measured elements of officer actions had no direct effects on recidivism for a sample of 226 women. However, the analysis revealed an indirect effect in which a non-supportive, punitive relationship was related to reactance and anxiety, which in turn were related to high recidivism. The discussion focuses on theoretical and methodological explanations for the null findings regarding direct effects. Moreover, it draws on the literature in psychology and communication to suggest approaches to reducing the reactance that can promote recidivism and to suggest related future research directions.
... Studies link probation and parole officer attitudes to a host of outcomes including pre-sentence recommendations (Katz 1982;Rosecrance 1985Rosecrance , 1987, job task selection (Clear and Latessa 1993), acceptance of agency directives (Lynch 1998;Makarios et al. 2012;Sigler and McGraw 1984), and supervision practices (Seng and Lurigio 2005;Steiner et al. 2011;West and Seiter 2004). In a similar vein, research also suggests that the amount of training a probation or parole officer has received is of the utmost importance for his or her clients (Bonta et al. 2008;Dowden and Andrews 2004;Lowenkamp et al. 2014;Oleson et al. 2012;Robinson et al. 2012;Trotter 1996) and that probationer or parolee outcomes like criminal recidivism are influenced by their probation and parole officers (Andrews 1980;Andrews et al. 1990;Bourgon and Gutierrez 2012;Huebner and Berg 2011;Jalbert and Rhodes 2012;MacKenzie et al. 1999;MacKenzie and De Li 2002;Paparozzi and Gendreau 2005;Steiner et al. 2012; however, see also Horney et al. 1995). ...
Objectives: Use a unique dataset to pair probation and parole officers and their clients in Denmark in 2002–2009 to identify causal effects of these officers on labor market out- comes and recidivism.
Methods: To identify these effects, we rely on data from all probationers and parolees in Copenhagen, where a rotational assignment process randomizes clients to officers. We apply OLS models to test whether the inclusion of probation and parole officer fixed effects improves model fit, and we show the impact of officer fixed effects by generating predicted values for one individual, varying only the officer.
Results: The first stage of the analysis shows that the assignment of a probation or parole officer is indeed random in Copenhagen—at least in regards to the vast majority of background characteristics—suggesting that we are able to identify causal effects of probationer and parolee assignment on labor market outcomes and recidivism. The second stage of our analysis shows that although to a lower degree than common sense might suggest, probation and parole officers do matter for their clients’ dependency on public benefit transfers (around 10 percentage points) and criminal recidivism (around 30 per- centage points), whereas earnings are unaffected.
Conclusion: As no study has yet to identify causal effects of probation and parole officer assignment, this study makes a novel contribution to the literature on the effects of criminal justice contact on subsequent life-course outcomes. Although generalizability to the US context is uncertain because we rely on Danish data, our findings nonetheless point in interesting directions for future research.
This analysis employs a Bayesian framework to estimate the impact of a Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) intervention on the recidivism of high-risk people under community supervision. The study relies on the reanalysis of experimental datal using a Bayesian logistic regression model. In doing so, new estimates of programmatic impact were produced using weakly informative Cauchy priors and the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo method. The Bayesian analysis indicated that CBT reduced the prevalence of new charges for total, non-violent, property, and drug crimes. However, the effectiveness of the CBT program varied meaningfully depending on the participant's age. The probability of the successful reduction of drug offenses was high only for younger individuals (<26 years old), while there was an impact on property offenses only for older individuals (>26 years old). In general, the probability of the successful reduction of new charges was higher for the older group of people on probation. Generally, this study demonstrates that Bayesian analysis can complement the more commonplace Null Hypothesis Significance Test (NHST) analysis in experimental research by providing practically useful probability information. Additionally, the specific findings of the reestimation support the principles of risk-needs responsivity and risk-stratified community supervision and align with related findings, though important differences emerge. In this case, the Bayesian estimations suggest that the effect of the intervention may vary for different types of crime depending on the age of the participants. This is informative for the development of evidence-based correctional policy and effective community supervision programming.
Cet article propose un état des connaissances sur la question des charges de travail en probation, s'intéresse à la situation française, analyse la distinction entre les notions d'effectifs et de charges de travail, analyse les effets en matière de prévention de la récidive et de bien-être des professionnels au travail et explore enfin des pistes d'amélioration.
As part of a qualitative evaluation of a trial of a new model of community corrections (Triple-S: Social Supports in Supervision), we interviewed 53 probationers and parolees about their experiences with supervision. Although procedural justice was not the direct focus of the trial or its evaluation and participants were not overtly prompted, participants independently communicated the importance of procedural justice elements in shaping their interactions with their supervising officer, their perceptions of the agency, and their attitudes and behaviors relevant to their correctional order. Following a thematic analysis of these responses, we propose ten principles for procedurally just probation and parole practices. We suggest that probation and parole officers should: (1) be courteous, (2) avoid labeling, (3) explain, (4) listen, (5) hear, (6) be consistent, (7) be measured, (8) reserve judgment, (9) be invested, and (10) problem-solve. From this introductory exploratory study, we urge further research into the utility of these guiding elements. Subsequent scholarship may demonstrate how they enhance community corrections practices by improving officer decision-making and client interactions, which in turn is predicted to increase probationer and parolee engagement and subsequent compliance.
We undertook a Rapid Evidence Assessment to explore the existing empirical evidence relating to the impact of probation caseloads on recidivism. Over 3,000 potentially relevant papers were sifted from which five were deemed robust enough to be analysed in detail. All five were US studies which examined the impact of particular initiatives to reduce caseloads and were delivered by mainstream community-based probation officers. All recorded reductions in measured outcomes compared to comparators. Overall, although the number of robust studies remains quite small for such a key area of consideration, there appears to be a growing body of evidence that lower probation caseloads have a positive impact in terms of reducing reoffending in the USA. All five studies looked at a range of criminal justice outcomes including technical probation violations, violations for new arrests and reconvictions. Interestingly, although researchers were expecting to find a higher rate of probation violations among the cohorts supervised by probation officers with lower caseloads (due to the increased intensity of supervision), this did not turn out to be the case.
Research Summary
Criminal justice practitioners increasingly seek out efficient means of community supervision supplanting face‐to‐face interactions with practices that are less onerous to administrators and clients. We examined the differential impact of remote supervision for low‐risk probationers by race. Remote reporting greatly reduces or eliminates in‐person meetings where race would be salient; however, it also creates conditions where an officer may rely more heavily on heuristics. We found the program drastically reduced violations, but also exacerbated the racial discrepancy in reporting high discretion violations.
Policy Implication
The study illustrates how integrating an empirical test of racial discrepancies into program evaluation can illuminate conditions that amplify implicit bias. Our findings illustrate how a program with unequivocally positive outcomes for low‐risk probationers overall can further amplify racial disparities, particularly when the probation officer has more discretion. By creating a statistically equivalent group of clients who receive probation‐as‐usual, our evaluation strategy measures this bias by comparing consequences for which an agent has high discretion against those for which they have low or no discretion for program participants. This approach is replicable across many criminal justice practices.
Although much effort has been taken to investigate probation failure and associated factors, less attention has been given to the stability and change in life events during the probation period that could influence probation violations, including re-arrest. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 and survival analyses, the current study aimed to explore the likelihood of probation failure by re-arrest and survival time to re-arrest among those with stable and changing statuses of various social bonds, including marriage/cohabitation and employment. The results suggested that those experiencing stability in these life domains when entering probation initially did not seem to have the best chance of survival. Rather, it was change in these statuses that made a difference. Based on postestimation survival curves, those divorced/separated and unemployed experienced the quickest time to failure.
A systematic literature review on effective practice in offender supervision.
In response to the lack of universal agreement about ‘What Works’ in probation supervision (Trotter, 2013) we undertook a Rapid Evidence Assessment of the empirical literature. Our analysis of research into the effect of probation supervision reducing reoffending included 13 studies, all of which employed robust research designs, originating in the USA, UK, Canada and Australia, published between 2006 and 2016. We describe the papers included in our review, and the meta-analyses of their findings. Overall, we found that the likelihood of reoffending was shown to be lower for offenders who had been exposed to some type of supervision. This finding should be interpreted cautiously however, given the heterogeneity of the studies. We suggest future research and methodological considerations to develop the evidence base concerning the effectiveness of probation supervision.
We use a time and motion study to understand how probation officers spend their time. What officers spend their time doing and whom they spend their time with demonstrates a deeper symbolic meaning of how the convicted should be treated, what is believed effective to change behavior, and informs the community about definitions of public safety. Explicitly studying officer time is a neglected area of research. We model a count variable of minutes per task as a function of offender, offense, and task characteristics using zero-truncated negative binomial regressions. Results show that officers spend significantly more time with higher-risk offenders, mixed results regarding domestic violence and sex offenders, and significantly less time with older and black probationers. Our intentions are to delve deeper into how officers spend their time to contribute to the development of an evidence-based model of corrections.
Intensive supervision programs (ISP) have a long history in theUnited States but only a relatively short existence in Canada. Manitoba’s Criminal Organization High Risk Offender Unit (COHROU) program combines intensive supervision, support, and program placement with rapid police response in the event of noncompliance with supervision conditions. COHROU attempts to use evidencebased programs to address criminogenic needs and supplement surveillance. This quantitative retrospective study assesses program clients admitted over 8 years (N = 409), following up on new convictions for violent, property, breach of probation, and other offences both during the program and for a 2-year period following supervision. Days in custody are also tracked 3 years pre- and postprogram. Findings indicate that reoffending was substantial but that a large number of convictions were technical violations. Using benchmark comparisons pre- and post-program, reductions were observed in violent reoffence, days in custody, and overall crime severity. While the downward trends in offence seriousness and incarceration are promising, the evaluation’s claims of ISP efficacy are limited by the lack of a comparison group. Future researchers may also wish to investigate more qualitative aspects of COHROU program operation and probation officer supervision to understand what features of the program affect participants.
This article reports the results of an experimental evaluation of the impact of Intensive Supervision Probation (ISP) on probationer recidivism. Participants, who were assessed at an increased likelihood of committing serious crimes and not ordered to specialized supervision, were randomly assigned to ISP (n = 447) or standard probation (n = 385). ISP probationers received more restrictive supervision and experienced more office contacts, home visitations, and drug screenings. After 12 months, there was no difference in offending. This equivalence holds across multiple types of crimes, including violent, non-violent, property, and drug offenses, as well as in a survival analysis conducted for each offense type. ISP probationers absconded from supervision, were charged with technical violations, and were incarcerated at significantly higher rates. Policy implications for these results are discussed.
Over the recent past there have been several meta-analyses and primary studies that support the importance of the risk principle. Oftentimes these studies, particularly the meta-analyses, are limited in their ability to assess how the actual implementation of the risk principle by correctional agencies affects effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Furthermore, primary studies are typically limited to the assessment of one or two programs, which again limits the types of analyses conducted. This study, using data from two independent studies of 97 correctional programs, investigates how adherence to the risk principle by targeting offenders who are higher risk and varying length of stay and services by level of risk affects program effectiveness in reducing recidivism. Overall, this research indicates that for residential and nonresidential programs, adhering to the risk principle has a strong relationship with a program’s ability to reduce recidivism.
1. Introduction 2. Causal and non-causal models 3. Microeconomic data structures 4. Linear models 5. ML and NLS estimation 6. GMM and systems estimation 7. Hypothesis tests 8. Specification tests and model selection 9. Semiparametric methods 10. Numerical optimization 11. Bootstrap methods 12. Simulation-based methods 13. Bayesian methods 14. Binary outcome models 15. Multinomial models 16. Tobit and selection models 17. Transition data: survival analysis 18. Mixture models and unobserved heterogeneity 19. Models of multiple hazards 20. Models of count data 21. Linear panel models: basics 22. Linear panel models: extensions 23. Nonlinear panel models 24. Stratified and clustered samples 25. Treatment evaluation 26. Measurement error models 27. Missing data and imputation A. Asymptotic theory B. Making pseudo-random draw.
Many empirical questions in economics and other social sciences depend on causal effects of programs or policies. In the last two decades, much research has been done on the econometric and statistical analysis of such causal effects. This recent theoretical literature has built on, and combined features of, earlier work in both the statistics and econometrics literatures. It has by now reached a level of maturity that makes it an important tool in many areas of empirical research in economics, including labor economics, public finance, development economics, industrial organization, and other areas of empirical microeconomics. In this review, we discuss some of the recent developments. We focus primarily on practical issues for empirical researchers, as well as provide a historical overview of the area and give references to more technical research.
An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata, Second Edition is the ideal tutorial for professional data analysts who want to learn survival analysis for the first time or who are well versed in survival analysis but not as dexterous in using Stata to analyze survival data. This text also serves as a valuable reference to those who already have experience using Stata’s survival analysis routines.
This paper evaluates a pilot program run by a company called OPOWER, previously known as Positive Energy, to mail home energy reports to residential utility consumers. The reports compare a household’s energy use to that of its neighbors and provide energy conservation tips. Using data from randomized natural field experiment at 80,000 treatment and control households in Minnesota, I estimate that the monthly program reduces energy consumption by 1.9 to 2.0 percent relative to baseline. In a treatment arm receiving reports each quarter, the effects decay in the months between letters and again increase upon receipt of the next letter. This suggests either that the energy conservation information is not useful across seasons or, perhaps more interestingly, that consumers’ motivation or attention is malleable and non-durable. I show that “profiling,” or using a statistical decision rule to target the program at households whose observable characteristics suggest larger treatment effects, could substantially improve cost effectiveness in future programs. The effects of this program provide additional evidence that non-price “nudges” can substantially affect consumer behavior.
This book presents statistical methods for analysis of the duration of events. The primary focus is on models for single-spell data, events in which individual agents are observed for a single duration. Some attention is also given to multiple-spell data. The first part of the book covers model specification, including both structural and reduced form models and models with and without neglected heterogeneity. The book next deals with likelihood based inference about such models, with sections on full and semiparametric specification. A final section treats graphical and numerical methods of specification testing. This is the first published exposition of current econometric methods for the study of duration data.
Did mandatory busing programs in the 1970s increase the school achievement of disadvantaged minority youth? Does obtaining a college degree increase an individual's labor market earnings? Did the use of the butterfly ballot in some Florida counties in the 2000 presidential election cost Al Gore votes? If so, was the number of miscast votes sufficiently large to have altered the election outcome? At their core, these types of questions are simple cause-and-effect questions. Simple cause-and-effect questions are the motivation for much empirical work in the social sciences. This book presents a model and set of methods for causal effect estimation that social scientists can use to address causal questions such as these. The essential features of the counterfactual model of causality for observational data analysis are presented with examples from sociology, political science, and economics.
This study examined the effect of treatment services, organizational supportiveness, and parole officer orientation on parolee recidivism. The sample consisted of 240 parolees enrolled in an intensive surveillance supervision program and 240 parolees undergoing traditional parole supervision. The participants were high-risk/high-need parolees. Three measures of parolee recidivism were used: (a) technical parole violation, (b) new conviction, and (c) revocation. These measures were examined by level of treatment services, organizational supportiveness, and the law enforcement/treatment orientation of intensive surveillance supervision program parole officers of which there were three classifications: (a) law enforcement, (b) balanced, and (c) social casework. The data support the view that intensive supervision programs that (a) provide more treatment to higher risk offenders, (b) employ parole officers with balanced law enforcement/social casework orientations, and (c) are implemented in supportive organizational environments may reduce recidivism from 10% to 30% depending on the comparisons being made.
New Jersey's Intensive Supervision Program (ISP) provides substantially higher levels of punishment, supervision, and counseling than are provided under ordinary probation or parole. These three correctional elements are contingently administered. Based on the nature of the offense and the offender's conformity to the rules of ISP, the counseling and the punitive and supervisory constraints are gradually lessened over the 18-month program. The most recent data on participants' terminations and recidivism rates are presented. The cost-effectiveness of the program and some practical lessons learned are also discussed.
This article reports results from a recently completed randomized field experiment testing the effects of intensive supervision probation/parole (ISP) for drug-involved offenders. The ISP demonstration project, funded by the Bureau of Justice Assistance, included five jurisdictions: Contra Costa, California; Seattle, Washington; Des Moines, Iowa; Santa Fe, New Mexico; and Winchester, Virginia. Jurisdictions developed ISP programs tailored to their own contexts, using the general ISP model developed by Georgia and New Jersey in the early 1980s. Results show that ISP offenders were seen more often, submitted more often to drug testing, received more drug counseling, and had higher levels of employment than their counterparts on routine probation/parole supervision. With respect to 1-year recidivism outcomes, a higher proportion of ISP offenders had technical violations (primarily for drug use), but there was no difference between the two study groups in new criminal arrests. At the end of the 1-year follow-up, more ISP offenders had been placed in jail or prison (mostly for technical violations). This policy drove up system costs, which for ISP averaged just under 5,500 per year per offender for routine supervision. The article concludes with a discussion of how these results can be used to inform future ISP research and policy discussions.
This is a progress report on the first year of operation of New Jersey's Intensive Supervision Program (ISP). The program design includes, among other components, very selective screening of applicants and multiple contacts with each offender every week. Results of a survey of judges, prosecutors, and public defenders on ISP are outlined. A summative evaluation would be premature at this time because only a handful of the 226 offenders admitted thus far into ISP have completed a full year in the program. However, preliminary indications of program accomplishments, including employment and rates of recidivism, are very promising.
In the face of severe institutional crowding across the United States, the 1980s has seen a revitalization of probation and parole through reliance on intensive supervision programs (ISPs). The ISPs of the 1980s are different from their predecessors of two decades earlier. Experiences with the new ISP movement identifies four areas of concern: stated goals may be difficult to achieve, confusion exists in the identification of appropriate target groups, supervision methods may be inappropriate to some clients, and the operating contexts are sometimes hostile to the ISP movement.
• Contains additional discussion and examples on left truncation as well as material on more general censoring and truncation patterns. • Introduces the martingale and counting process formulation swil lbe in a new chapter. • Develops multivariate failure time data in a separate chapter and extends the material on Markov and semi Markov formulations. • Presents new examples and applications of data analysis.
Probation and parole professionals argue that supervision outcomes would improve if caseloads were reduced below commonly achieved standards. Criminal justice researchers are skeptical because random assignment and strong observation studies have failed to show that criminal recidivism falls with reductions in caseload sizes. One explanation is that caseload reduction by itself is insufficient; supervision must also be allotted and distributed to make the best use of supervision resources, a cornerstone of evidence-based practice (EBP). This study uses a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to test the null hypothesis that reduced caseload in an agency using EBP has no effect on criminal recidivism. Our conclusions are that reduced caseloads in this context probably reduce criminal recidivism and probably do not increase revocations for technical violations.
Introduction Assumptions EM and Inference by Data Augmentation Methods for Normal Data More on the Normal Model Methods for Categorical Data Loglinear Models Methods for Mixed Data Further Topics Appendices References Index
Three contemporary models of probation supervision can be differentiated, based on the extent to which they focus on protecting community safety (surveillance model), promoting offender rehabilitation (treatment model), or both (hybrid model). Hybrid models combine dual roles of controlling and caring for probationers. A quarter century ago, Klockars (197244.
Klockars , C. ( 1972 ). A theory of probation supervision . Journal of Criminal Law, Criminology, and Police Science , 64 ( 4 ), 549 – 557 . View all references) articulated a theory to describe how the “synthetic” officer reconciles these dual roles to achieve a broader base of power for behavior change and more positive outcomes than the “law enforcement” officer or “therapeutic agent.” In this article, we apply Klockar's theory to compare modern models of supervision in their (a) theoretical coherence and (b) effectiveness, at both the officer and program level, and for both general probationers and probationers with mental disorder. The weight of the evidence for both types of probationers supports the hybrid model. Going back to Klockar's theory may ultimately inform officers' understanding and adoption of hybrid strategies to more effectively supervise probationers.
In many disciplines of science it is vital to know the effect of a 'treatment' on a response variable of interest; the effect being known as the 'treatment effect'. Here, the treatment can be a drug, an education program or an economic policy, and the response variable can be an illness, academic achievement or GDP. Once the effect is found, it is possible to intervene to adjust the treatment and attain a desired level of the response variable. A basic way to measure the treatment effect is to compare two groups, one of which received the treatment and the other did not. If the two groups are homogenous in all aspects other than their treatment status, then the difference between their response outcomes is the desired treatment effect. But if they differ in some aspects in addition to the treatment status, the difference in the response outcomes may be due to the combined influence of more than one factor. In non-experimental data where the treatment is not randomly assigned but self-selected, the subjects tend to differ in observed or unobserved characteristics. It is therefore imperative that the comparison be carried out with subjects similar in their characteristics. This book explains how this problem can be overcome so the attributable effect of the treatment can be found. This book brings to the fore recent advances in econometrics for treatment effects. The purpose of this book is to put together various economic treatments effect models in a coherent fashion, make it clear which can be parameters of interest, and show how they can be identified and estimated under weak assumptions. The emphasis throughout the book is on semi- and non-parametric estimation methods, but traditional parametric approaches are also discussed. This book is ideally suited to researchers and graduate students with a basic knowledge of econometrics. Available in OSO: http://www.oxfordscholarship.com/oso/public/content/economicsfinance/0199267693/toc.html
This paper is a survey of statistical methods used to analyze the length of time until a specified event occurs. These models have often been used to analyze the survival times (i.e., time until death) of medical patients, and so the term survival analysis is natural. In criminology, the main application of these models has been to analyze the time until recidivism, but many other applications are possible. The paper summarizes the statistical literature on survival analysis, and describes its applications in criminology. The methods are illustrated by an application to the prediction of time until recidivism for a sample of North Carolina prison releasees.
This paper aims to review randomized experiments in criminology with offending outcomes and reasonably large numbers that were published between 1982 and 2004. A total of 83 experiments are summarized, compared with only 35 published between 1957 and 1981: 12 on policing, 13 on prevention, 14 on corrections, 22 on courts, and 22 on community interventions. Randomized experiments are still relatively uncommon, but there have been more large-scale multi-site experiments and replication programs. There have also been several experiments in which 100 or more places were randomly assigned. Relatively few experiments (only 10 out of 83) were conducted outside the United States. Meta-analyses suggest that prevention methods, correctional therapy, batterer programs, drug courts, juvenile restitution and deterrent policing were effective in reducing offending, while Scared Straight and boot camp programs caused a significant increase in offending.
Intensive supervision was began as an extension of regular probation for those offenders who needed closer surveillance. However,
in the last decade, Intensive Supervision has been used increasingly as an alternative to incarceration in order to help alleviate
the problem of overcrowding in our prisons. In the eight-year period from 1977 to 1985, the prison population of this country
has increased 68 percent. In view of this, many states are using intensive supervision as one alternative to reduce commitment
rates. This study examines the effectiveness of one such program called the Intensive Treatment Supervision Program which
operates out of the Montgomery County Adult Probation Department, Dayton, Ohio. The performances of probationers on intensive
supervision are compared to a group of probationers on regular supervision to determine whether intensive supervision, through
improved service delivery, can have an impact on high risk probationers and serve as a basis for a program to divert offenders
from overcrowded facilities.
In this book, we take a middle ground between broadly synthetic works and much more narrowly focused articles. Our focus is primarly on statistical methodology. More specifically, we assess various parametric and nonparametric methods for predicting whether and when a released prisoner will return to crime. The relevant statistical methodology was developed mainly in the operations research and biostatistical literatures, and the appropriate statistical models are generally referred to as "survival time" or "failure time" models. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Several meta-analyses have rendered strong support for the clinically relevant and psychologically informed principles of human service, risk, need, and general responsivity. However, each of these reviews has focused on specific program components and not on the characteristics of the staff or the specific techniques used to deliver the program. This meta-analytic review examines the role of core correctional practices in reducing recidivism and provides strong preliminary evidence regarding their effectiveness. Staff characteristics and training in core skills must be addressed to ensure the maximum therapeutic impact of correctional treatment programs.
Mostly harmless econometrics: an empiricist's companion Trends in probation and parole in the states Council on State Governments Restructuring probation as an intermediate sanction: an evaluation of the Massachusetts intensive probation supervision program
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A multi-site evaluation of reduced probation caseload in an evidencebased setting. Final report submitted to the National Institute of Justice
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Rutgers University, Institute for Criminological Research, and National Institute of Justice (US) Final report of research on New Jersey's intensive supervision program
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Pearson, F.S., 1987. Rutgers University, Institute for Criminological Research, and National Institute of Justice (US). Final report of research on New Jersey's intensive supervision program. New Brunswick. NJ: Institute for Criminological Research, Department of Sociology, Rutgers – State University of New Jersey.
Analysis of incomplete missing data
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Using an integrated model to implement evidence-based practices in corrections. Publication of the International Community Corrections Association and American Correctional Association
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Joplin, L., et al., 2004. Using an integrated model to implement evidence-based practices in
corrections. Publication of the International Community Corrections Association and
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NICCJI_Project_ICCA.pdf
Trends in probation and parole in the states
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Burrell, W., 2005. Trends in probation and parole in the states. In: The book of the states, 2005.
Council on State Governments. [online] Available from: http://www.appa-net.org/eweb/
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