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Regional Foresight, Modes of Governance and Democracy
European Planning Studies
Abstract
The aim of this article is to discuss democratic potentials and pitfalls inherent in the use of Foresight methodologies, especially on the regional level. Foresight is used on the regional level as a tool for developing common visions about the future, strengthening the cohesion between regional actors and enabling coordinated action towards common goals. Based on broad participation, foresight represents a departure from expert-based scenario building and planning. The emphasis on building common goals and achieving coordinated action makes it feasible to conceptualize foresight processes as instances of governance. Based on a discussion on generalized modes of governance, a contention is made to the effect that foresight processes most closely resemble network governance as a general mode. With this point of departure, the paper uses arguments from the debate on democratic network governance to substantiate the discussion on the democratic aspects of foresight.
... Foresight generally draws from the various traditions of future studies with a pragmatic intent to inform policy making (Martin, 2010;Miles, 2010Miles, , 2008Miles et al., 2008). Foresight, specifically in the regional policy context, is defined as a systematic, participatory, multidisciplinary, intelligence gathering, and medium-to-long-term vision-building process to capture existing expert intelligence to make it accessible for present decision making, aimed at uncovering possible future paths, and opening them up for debate (e.g., Foray et al., 2012;Hanssen et al., 2009). The evolution and adoption of foresight coincides with the rise of research on and subsequent diffusion of the innovation systems concept (Cariola and Rolfo, 2004). ...
... Under the umbrella of foresight, the two most relevant sub-literatures are regional and sectoral foresight. Of these two, regional foresight is predominately attached to policymaking processes and is thus increasingly less concerned with accurate anticipation of the future or forecasting and is more used as an objective setting, negotiation and commitment process (Cariola and Rolfo, 2004;Dufva et al., 2015;Hanssen et al., 2009). Technically, these processes might be characterized as generally normative foresight, backcasting, roadmapping, or visionary processes, or, with a more critical outlook, planning processes under the veneer of foresight. ...
... Furthermore, as discussed, foresight generally tends to lack a rigorous understanding of the mechanisms of development. The literature of regional foresight is preoccupied with participation and impact, while it remains largely silent on the mechanisms of regional development and associated industrial dynamics (see e.g., Gavigan et al., 2001;Gertler and Wolfe, 2004;Hanssen et al., 2009;Puglisi and Marvin, 2002;Roveda et al., 2004;Uotila and Melkas, 2007). ...
The concept of smart specialization has attracted great interest and has been adopted widely in European regional and innovation policy. Foresight is an important part of creating smart specialization strategies. However, both the smart specialization concept and foresight have been criticized for lacking an empirical and theoretical foundation that can help guide their application in practice. This paper contributes to the theoretical foundation of smart specialization and regional foresight by drawing on the field of economic geography and elaborating a typology for patterns of smart specialization. We highlight that there are different paths to reaching smart specialization within the same industrial domain. The empirical research focuses on the offshore wind service sector in four regions around the North Sea. The findings corroborate a typology that offers four distinct patterns—diversification, transition, radical foundation, and modernization—all of which can enable the creation of new industrial activities where regions enter an emerging industry based on fundamentally different starting points.
... However, as Scharpf (1994: ?) notes, network governance operates in the shadow of hierarchy. Even though network governance lacks centrist authority, as do foresight activities , this format aims at creating linkages between atomised actors, who are locked into forms of traditional governance revolving around the coordination mechanisms hierarchy (Hanssen et al. 2009Hanssen et al. : 1740). Scholars and practitioners of FS have seldom discussed the democratic legitimacy of FS. ...
... On the input side, formal procedures may play a role as well in so far as the selection criteria have to be made transparent to the general public. Further, the criteria on which the decisions are made – be it selection decisions or any others – have to be accepted and made in accordance with general formal procedures guaranteeing democratic equality and accountability (Hanssen et al. 2009). ...
... Some experts of FS think that " [t] he interactive participatory dimension to foresight methods (...) seems to be appropriate. In order to notice features that are neglected and to formulate new ideas, participants must be forced to challenge their usual way of thinking, seeing the world from other perspectives " (Hanssen et al. 2009Hanssen et al. : 1743). The Freight Vision FS 3 sponsored by the European Commission under FP7 is a case in point. ...
The EFP (European Foresight Platform) is a Coordination and Support Action funded under the European Commission FP7 programme. Its goal is to support forward looking decision making and to consolidate the knowledge base on foresight and forward looking activities (FLA) in Europe and internationally. This paper describes how forward looking activities can support strategic policy making. We will first review the literature and then focus specifically on the EFP activities.
... However, as Scharpf (1994: ?) notes, network governance operates in the shadow of hierarchy. Even though network governance lacks centrist authority, as do foresight activities , this format aims at creating linkages between atomised actors, who are locked into forms of traditional governance revolving around the coordination mechanisms hierarchy (Hanssen et al. 2009Hanssen et al. : 1740). Scholars and practitioners of FS have seldom discussed the democratic legitimacy of FS. ...
... On the input side, formal procedures may play a role as well in so far as the selection criteria have to be made transparent to the general public. Further, the criteria on which the decisions are made – be it selection decisions or any others – have to be accepted and made in accordance with general formal procedures guaranteeing democratic equality and accountability (Hanssen et al. 2009). ...
... Some experts of FS think that " [t] he interactive participatory dimension to foresight methods (...) seems to be appropriate. In order to notice features that are neglected and to formulate new ideas, participants must be forced to challenge their usual way of thinking, seeing the world from other perspectives " (Hanssen et al. 2009Hanssen et al. : 1743). The Freight Vision FS 3 sponsored by the European Commission under FP7 is a case in point. ...
EFP is financed by the European Commission DG Research. It is part of a series of initiatives intended to provide a ‘Knowledge Sharing Platform’ for policy makers in the European Union. More information on the EFP and on the Knowledge Sharing Platform is provided at www.foresight-platform.eu
... In fact, a lack of alternatives has been shown to be a major pitfall in urban development (Priemus, 2010). However, such alternatives need to be constructed in a sound manner, e.g., in the third generation of foresight research, iteratively and in consultation with different actors (Hanssen, Johnstad and Klausen, 2009). Furthermore, the construction of a broad range of possible future states should produce comparable alternatives that allow for a detailed assessment of their consequences . ...
... It supports planning that is accepted by stakeholders. Yet, like regional foresight, it can only complement public planning processes and it must be followed by more inclusive democratic processes (Hanssen, Johnstad and Klausen, 2009;Falleth, Hanssen and Saglie, 2010). Also, it is essential to acknowledge that "the aggregation of individual consumer preferences ignore and weaken the fundamental democratic trusteeship" (Sager, 2009, p. 72). ...
Three traditional strands of lifestyle research can be identified in more than a hundred years: consumer, health, and housing lifestyles. These traditional strands of lifestyle research were studied in different academic disciplines such as psychology, sociology, economics, medicine, urban studies, and environmental sciences. Lifestyles were, however, not explored in-depth from an interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary sustainability perspective on human- environment systems (HES). Fostering sustainable lifestyles in urban systems is of practical relevance, as the optimization of efficient technologies alone will not be enough to achieve a degree of environmental protection that maintains world’s capacities. Since a sustainable development depends on and influences the psychological and sociological matrix of HES, it is important to integrate the views of different stakeholder groups into urban planning. An understanding of the views of different stakeholder groups can aid urban planning to realize a sustainable transition of urban systems. The research question of this thesis is to create theoretical and empirical evidence in lifestyles in order to enable science and practice to plan a sustainable urban development that is successful in a market economy. Firstly, theoretical evidence is embedded into an interdisciplinary framework of HES. Secondly, empirical evidence is presented from two studies on the views of different stakeholder groups. This cumulative thesis consists of three related contributions: The first contribution provides a review of lifestyle research. It contributes to the critical question of how the buzzword “lifestyle” can be transformed into a scientific concept that can be used for science and practice on sustainable urban living. The second contribution provides a study of sustainability criteria that key financial stakeholders regard as important for the market success of sustainable real estate funds (S-REFs), and how they assess the market acceptance of such funds. The third contribution provides a scenario assessment of six urban planning scenarios by members of different stakeholder groups in the Canton of Basel-Stadt. It depicts different alternative futures with respect to the sustainability performance of “Erlenmatt”, a major urban redevelopment project in the Canton of Basel-Stadt. The case study area comprises 19.2 hectares composed of about eight hectares of parkways, public spaces, and a conservation area. Erlenmatt, a mixed-usage district with about 700 apartments for 1,800-2,000 inhabitants and 1,100-2,000 working places on 10 building plots, will be developed during the next 15-20 years. The empirical studies were conducted in the German-speaking parts of Switzerland. The views of housing suppliers, the non-profit & public sector, and housing target groups were studied (n = 182). Housing suppliers were investors, principals, real estate fund (REF) suppliers, project developers, responsible experts and architects. The non-profit & public sector consisted of planning administrators and representatives of sustainability non- governmental organizations (NGOs). Housing target groups were parents of young families and life science personnel with a modern orientation. The first contribution provided a lifestyle definition that is based on an interdisciplinary review of psychological and sociological lifestyle research. The lifestyle definition is based on the Lewinian field theory and HES. Lifestyles are patterns of thinking and behaviour with habitual and self-identificatory potential, through which individuals express social affiliation and distinction. The second contribution found that S-REFs serve as a responsible property investment that foster the expression of sustainable lifestyles. The contribution identified sustainability criteria and drivers for key financial stakeholders’ market acceptance of S-REFs. The third contribution found that more sustainable scenarios for the case study (Erlenmatt) are preferred with respect to desirability and utility, and that their probability is not estimated lower than other scenarios. The non-profit & public sector is most pessimistic about the probability of a sustainable district, whilst housing suppliers desire it less. The results suggest that stakeholder groups have to realize transitions for urban lifestyles and efficient technologies that perform well, create consent, and are successful in a market economy. Lifestyles provide incentives and barriers for regulating urban systems, and give in-depth information for their sustainable transition. Such a transition of urban systems requires the sustainable development of coupled HES. Real estate finance instruments and planning options, which foster a sustainable development, have to be assessed by different stakeholder groups using different assessment indicators. The aim is to choose an optimal strategy for implementation, which is thoroughly assessed as well as broadly accepted by different stakeholder groups. Drei Stränge der Lebensstilforschung können über den Verlauf von mehr als hundert Jahren identifiziert werden: Konsum-, Gesundheits- und Wohnlebensstile. Diese traditionellen Stränge der Lebensstilforschung wurden in verschiedenen wissenschaftlichen Disziplinen wie Psychologie, Soziologie, Wirtschaftswissenschaften, Medizin, Stadtforschung und Umweltwissenschaften untersucht. Lebensstile wurden jedoch nicht sehr eingehend von einer interdisziplinären und transdisziplinären Nachhaltigkeitsperspektive auf Mensch-Umwelt- Systeme (MUS) erforscht. Nachhaltige Lebensstile in Stadtsystemen zu fördern ist von praktischer Relevanz. Die Optimierung effizienter Technologien alleine wird nicht ausreichen, um einen Grad an Umweltschutz zu erreichen, der die Tragfähigkeit der Erde aufrecht erhält. Da eine nachhaltige Entwicklung von der psychologischen und soziologischen Matrix von MUS abhängt und diese beeinflusst, ist es von Bedeutung, die Ansichten verschiedener Interessengruppen in die Stadtplanung einzubinden. Ein Verständnis, welche Ansichten verschiedene Interessengruppen über Lebensstile haben, kann der Stadtplanung bei der nachhaltigen Umwandlung von Stadtsystemen helfen. Die Forschungsfrage dieser Arbeit ist theoretische und praktische Belege über Lebensstile zu finden um es Wissenschaft und Praxis zu ermöglichen eine nachhaltige Stadtentwicklung zu planen, die in einer Marktwirtschaft erfolgreich ist. Erstens wird das Lebensstil-Konzept theoretisch in einen interdisziplinären Rahmen von MUS eingebettet. Zweitens werden empirische Belege aus zwei Untersuchungen über die Ansichten verschiedener Interessengruppen präsentiert. Diese kumulative These besteht aus drei aufeinander bezogenen Beiträgen: Der erste Beitrag liefert eine Literaturübersicht zur Lebensstilforschung. Er trägt zur kritischen Frage bei, wie das Modewort „Lebensstil“ in ein wissenschaftliches Konzept umgeformt werden kann, das für die Wissenschaft und Praxis nachhaltigen Stadtlebens verwendet werden kann. Der zweite Beitrag liefert eine Studie über die Nachhaltigkeitskriterien, die Schlüsselfinanzakteure als wichtig für den Markterfolg von Nachhaltigen Immobilienfonds (NIFs) erachten, und wie sie die Marktakzeptanz solcher Fonds bewerten. Der dritte Beitrag liefert eine Szenariobewertung von sechs Stadtplanungsszenarien durch Mitglieder verschiedener Interessengruppen des Kantons Basel-Stadt. Er zeigt unterschiedliche alternative Zukünfte in Bezug auf die Nachhaltigkeitsleistung der „Erlenmatt“, einem größeren städtischen Umnutzungsprojekt im Kanton Basel-Stadt. Das Fallstudienareal umfasst 19,2 Hektar, davon etwa acht Hektar Parkanlagen, öffentliche Plätze und ein Naturschutzgebiet. Die Erlenmatt, ein gemischt genutztes Quartier mit etwa 700 Wohnungen für 1.800-2.000 Einwohner und 1.100-2.000 Arbeitsplätze auf 10 Baufeldern, wird im Verlauf der nächsten 15-20 Jahre entwickelt. Die empirischen Studien wurden in der deutschsprachigen Schweiz durchgeführt. Es wurden die Ansichten von Wohnanbietern, des gemeinnützigen & öffentlichen Sektors und von Bewohnerzielgruppen untersucht (n = 182). Wohnanbieter waren Investoren, Bauherren, Immobilienfondsanbieter, Projektentwickler, verantwortliche Fachpersonen und Architekten. Der gemeinnützige & öffentliche Sektor bestand aus Planungsbeauftragten und Vertretern von nachhaltigen Nichtregierungsorganisationen (NROs). Bewohnerzielgruppen waren Eltern von jungen Familien und Lebenswissenschaftspersonal mit einer modernen Grundorientierung. Der erste Beitrag lieferte eine Lebensstildefinition, die auf einem interdisziplinären Literaturüberblick der psychologischen und soziologischen Lebensstilforschung basiert. Die Lebensstildefinition basiert auf der Lewin’schen Feldtheorie und MUS. Lebensstile sind Denk- und Verhaltensmuster mit Gewohnheits- und Selbstidentifikationspotenzial, durch die Personen soziale Zugehörigkeit und Abgrenzung ausdrücken. Der zweite Beitrag fand, dass NIFs als verantwortliche Immobiliengeldanlage dienen, die den Ausdruck nachhaltiger Lebensstile fördern. Der Beitrag identifizierte Nachhaltigkeitskriterien und Treiber für die Marktakzeptanz von NIFs durch Schlüsselfinanzakteure. Der dritte Beitrag fand, dass nachhaltige Szenarien für die Fallstudie (Erlenmatt) in Bezug auf Erwünschtheit und Nutzen bevorzugt werden, und dass ihre Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht niedriger als die anderer Szenarien eingeschätzt wird. Der gemeinnützige & öffentliche Sektor ist über die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines nachhaltigen Quartiers am pessimistischsten, während Wohnanbieter es weniger wünschen. Die Ergebnisse deuten darauf hin, dass Interessengruppen die Umwandlung städtischer Lebensstile und effizienter Technologien verwirklichen müssen, die gut abschneiden, Konsens bilden und marktwirtschaftlich erfolgreich sind. Lebensstile schaffen Anreize und Barrieren für die Regulation von Stadtsystemen und geben eingehende Information für ihre nachhaltige Umwandlung. Eine solche Umwandlung von Stadtsystemen erfordert eine nachhaltige Entwicklung von gekoppelten MUS. Immobilienfinanzinstrumente und Planungsoptionen, die eine nachhaltige Entwicklung fördern, müssen von verschiedenen Interessengruppen unter Verwendung von verschiedenen Bewertungsindikatoren bewertet werden. Das Ziel ist eine optimale Implementierungsstrategie zu wählen, die von verschiedenen Interessengruppen sowohl gründlich bewertet als auch breit akzeptiert wird.
... It appears that different approaches have evolved for regional foresight, e.g., market pull (Higdem 2014, Störmer et al. 2009Cuhls et al. 2012;Hanssen et al. 2009;Vecchiato and Roveda 2014), technology push (Vecchiato et al. 2007), and also mixed approaches, which represent both market pull and technology push (Roveda et al. 2004;Koschatzky 2005). Market pull approaches mainly target at the structured analysis of markets and potential developments of given markets including scenarios describing the development of market actors and their respective strategies as well as structural changes in the markets which are caused by different sources (Brem and Voigt 2009). ...
... The review also shows that, in general regional, foresight in developed countries suggests involving all drivers of a knowledge-based economy, such as representatives of innovation-oriented business, universities, and research institutes (Hanssen et al. 2009;Renn and Thomas 2002). At regional level it often times appear that science representatives enjoy a high reputation holding influential positions in the regional context. ...
Whereas national and corporate foresight are established instruments for anticipatory Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional foresight is a rather new phenomenon in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate foresight, regional foresight can be considered to fulfill a bridging role by taking advantage of the corporate foresight done at corporations which is based in the regions and by focusing on the broader national foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition, regional foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate foresight, but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional foresight. Also, it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also, at the regional dimension, it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate foresight. The article introduces and discusses two regional foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely, Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional foresight cases; e.g., the focus was extended beyond the science, government, and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However, the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industry sectors which is also due to the general weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases not only created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader economic and social welfare dimension.
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... In fact, a lack of alternatives has been shown to be a major pitfall in urban development (Priemus, 2010). However, such alternatives need to be constructed in a sound manner, e.g. in the third generation of foresight research, iteratively and in consultation with different actors (Hanssen et al., 2009). Furthermore, the construction of a broad range of possible future states should produce comparable alternatives that allow for a detailed assessment of their consequences (Scholz & Tietje, 2002). ...
... It supports planning that is accepted by stakeholders. Yet, like regional foresight, it can only complement public planning processes and it must be followed by more inclusive democratic processes (Falleth et al., 2010;Hanssen et al., 2009). Also, it is essential to acknowledge that "the aggregation of individual consumer preferences ignore and weaken the fundamental democratic trusteeship" (Sager, 2009, p. 72). ...
The assessment of different urban planning scenarios by stakeholders can yield important insights which, in turn, inform sustainable urban transition. Yet to gain in-depth insight, this assessment needs to be multi-faceted and should go beyond a unidimensional “most/least desired” approach. Accordingly, we use indicators that distinguish between desirability, utility and probability assessments. We compare these assessments within and between various stakeholder groups based on a set of literature-based hypotheses. We constructed six planning scenarios, systematically varied with respect to sustainability for the case study, “Erlenmatt”, a major urban redevelopment area in Switzerland. Three stakeholder groups (housing suppliers, the non-profit & public sector and housing target groups, n = 80) were investigated. The results of the statistical analyses suggest that more sustainable scenarios are preferred with respect to both their desirability and utility and that their probability is not lower than that of the other scenarios. The non-profit & public sector is the most pessimistic about the probability of a sustainable district while housing suppliers desire it less. We conclude that such detailed subjective scenario assessments can provide informative and detailed guidance for sustainable urban transition.
... 7.2.3 elaborates on how foresight and surprise preparation may be performed by planners that are involved in developing urban regions. Hanssen et al. (2009) identify five key elements of regional foresight: (1) structured anticipation and projection of long-term developments and needs, for instance, specific societal and technological developments; (2) interaction and participation of diverse public, private, and intermediary actors to enhance collective analysis and debate; and (3) forging new social networks as well as (4) vision building and developing a shared sense of commitment and (5) recognizing the implications of visions and commitments for present-day decisions and actions. This understanding of foresight underlines the importance of human agency in terms of "projectivity" and "practical evaluation" (see Sect. 7.2.1). ...
Cities are the most resilient humans’ artefact, and this is due to their socio-economic capacities to persist shock and stresses. However, sometimes cities do persist but at the cost of losing key functions and modifying their development trajectories. One of the challenges of disaster resilience is indeed to merge built environment reconstruction and socio-economic (re)development. This chapter aims to explore how to do that in the difficult circumstances of the territories which are losing populations, with ageing societies and economic stagnation. In order to do that, different municipalities of the Abruzzo region are taken as study cases. In 2009 the region was shocked by a severe earthquake, destroying L’Aquila city and surrounding 56 minor centres (44 of these been labelled from the Italian Government as “inner areas”, definition that indicates towns that don’t have a direct access to essential services such as secondary education or emergency care hospitals). The study analyses 18 post-earthquake reconstruction plans in the light of the legislative framework and the status quo 6 years after the disaster. Results emphasise a set of paradoxes and challenges in the application of the normative framework, which aims at the broadest, integrated, long-term socio-economic recovery, but at the same time limiting the space for innovation and actions beyond the built environment reconstruction. However, the out-of-ordinary opportunity offered from the reconstruction funds hides the still potential for building new patterns of development, that need to be tackled by addressing the tensions highlighted in this chapter.
... Broad participation and organizational representation, for instance during scenario building workshops, is recommended in the literature. However, inequalities within the participants in terms of hierarchy and political weight might influence the deliberations during scenario construction and marginalize some views (Hanssen et al., 2009). Thus, instead of prompting social and cognitive openness, SP might provoke cognitive closure if powerful individuals exert their influence. ...
Purpose
This paper aims to identify four areas in need of future research to enhance the theoretical understanding of scenario planning (SP), and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes.
Design/methodology/approach
This paper organizes existing contributions on SP within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on SP from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human resource management, operations management and psychology.
Findings
This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding SP as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular study may be located in the SP process and, importantly, how it may influence – or be influenced by – various factors in the process.
Originality/value
This study offers specific research questions and precise guidelines to future scholars pursuing research on SP.
... W kontekście skuteczności foresightu regionalnego w zarządzaniu strategicznym na poziomie regionalnym należy wziąć pod uwagę następujące problemy (Sandkjaer Hanssen, Johnstad, Erling Klausen, 2009, s. 1742-1746: ...
... W tym znaczeniu foresight to program łączący informacje dotyczące bieżących trendów i przyszłych zmian rozwojowych z informacjami uzyskiwanymi od uczestników programu i ich postawami. Ma to swoje następujące konsekwencje: predykcja przyszłości jest włączana w generowaną w ramach foresightu wspólną wizję przyszłości, a integracja interesariuszy na poziomie regionalnym i rozwój sieci współpracy między nimi jest równie ważny co końcowe produkty programów foresight w postaci wygenerowanej wiedzy i raportów (Sandkjaer Hanssen et al. 2009: 1735-1736. Aby zapewnić powodzenie procesu foresight, należy zatem uwzględnić pięć następujących elementów (Miles, Keenan 2002: 15): ...
... The review also shows that in general regional foresight in developed countries suggests involving all drivers of knowledge-based economy, such as representatives of innovationoriented business, universities and research institutes (Hanssen et al., 2009; Renn and Tomas, 2002). At regional level it often times appears that science representatives enjoy a high reputation holding influential positions in the regional context. ...
Whereas national and corporate Foresight are established instruments for anticipatory STI policy and innovation strategy respectively, regional Foresight is a rather new phenomena in this arena. Placed in between national and corporate Foresight regional Foresight can be considered to fulfill a briding role between the two by taking advantage of corporate Foresight done at corporations which are based in the regions and by orienting on the broader national Foresight and the related challenges covered by these studies. In addition regional Foresight also involves stakeholders who might be engaged in national as well as corporate but presumably these stakeholders play a more important and prominent role in the regional Foresight. Also it is understood that regional networks are important for the successful implementation of the results. Also at the regional dimension it shows that stronger personal linkages exist than in national or corporate Foresight.
The article introduces and discusses two regional Foresight case studies in Russian regions, namely Bashkortostan and Samara. Regional Foresight in both case studies was designed to mirror the quadruple helix instead of focusing on the triple helix only as it is done in many other regional Foresight cases, e.g. the focus was extended beyond the science, government and industry stakeholders by including civil society as well. However the limitation of the case studies is the modest participation and representation of the innovative industries sectors which is also due to the common weakness of Russian industry overall. Still it is found that both cases created reasonable momentum for developing the regions in the STI dimension but also even broader in the economic and social welfare dimension.
available at http://ssrn.com/abstract=2513805
The function of small towns and their development depend on various factors that should be considered in their planning. This shows the necessity and importance of futurism in the function of small towns in the settlement system. The main purpose of this research is to foresight the functions of small towns in the urban system of Fars central area up to 2031. This study tries to identify the key factors affecting the functioning of small towns in the urban system of the Fars central area and to draw possible scenarios for the next 10 years, predicting the overall trend. This research is practical in purpose, a combination of documentary and survey methods in terms of data collection, analytical in terms of method, and futuristic in terms of time. According to the nature of the research, structural analysis and scenario analysis methods were used in MICMAC and Scenario Wizard software. The results showed that 15 key factors affect the functioning of small towns in the study area. These 15 factors lead to 45 possible futures based on scenario analysis. After analyzing the possible situations, 12 scenarios with the highest compatibility were extracted, among which the future status of small towns in the urban system of the Fars central area in most scenarios will continue the current situation with a favorable trend. © the Author(s). Publisher: University of Sistan and Baluchestan Geography and Territorial Spatial Arrangement 60 Vol. 13, No. 48 Extended Abstract Introduction Today, urban areas are experiencing a high growth rate due to globalization and technological and cultural changes. Urban changes, as a dynamic system, always have a significant impact on the urban environment and interactions between cities (AbouKorin, 2017:1822). Interactions between cities are different on temporal and spatial scales and are closely related to their function in the settlement system. Small towns have a special position in urban systems due to their abundance and distribution. Strengthening the function of small towns in the urban system will control the unbalanced distribution of the population and unplanned migrations. In the past few decades, paying attention to the issue of urban system analysis and the need of urban and regional planners and decision-makers in this field to predict possible changes in the future has led to the formation of future study methods on urban issues. One of the basic goals in regional foresight is to identify the key factors in the development of the region (Ebrahimzadeh and Mousavi, 2016: 45). Considering that, the creation and strengthening of functions in small towns can play an effective role in their development as well as improving the settlement system and regional development; therefore, it is necessary to identify the factors and drivers affecting the function of small towns and develop their scenarios. Due to the significant increase of small towns in the urban network of Fars province in the past few decades and the existence of the urban primacy phenomenon (Shiraz city) in the urban system of the province, as well as the relationship between small towns in the central Fars region and the metropolis of Shiraz, the central region of Fars is considered as the study area. The purpose of this research is the foresight of the function of small towns with a population of 25,000 people and less in the urban system of the central region of Fars province until 1410.
Regional foresight is one of the regional planning approaches that increase the ability to deal with uncertainty and changes. This study aims to provide an overview of regional foresight studies and domain map to evaluate their merits and defects and direct future studies in this field. For this purpose, 111 papers related to regional foresight were identified at the “Web of Science” in the period 2000 to 2019 and used as the basis for further analysis. These papers have been reviewed in various aspects. In addition, the domain map of regional foresight and its intellectual bases was drawn based on co-citation analysis of these papers and their 4194 references. The domain map includes five main clusters of research areas or intellectual bases for regional foresight: normative forecasting, participation, foresight in policy and strategy, innovation systems, and multi-level governance. Finally, the merits and defects of regional foresight studies are evaluated based on research results and some suggestions are provided for future studies.
Small islands in peripheral regions are currently perceived as attractive tourist destinations. Governance plays an important role as a strategy for the revival of such destinations to achieve a more productive, environmental, social and sustainable management structure. ‘Good’ governance of a destination depends on all the actors involved in the tourism network. Such governance requires a redefinition of relations between government and society and minimal boundaries between public and private sectors. This paper has analysed the level of implementation of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in a tourist destination that is a biosphere reserve (BR), the island of Fuerteventura (Canary Islands, Spain), from a comprehensive approach involving a tourism supply chain (TSC) with private and public agents. The focal firms analysed within the TSC have been tourist accommodation establishments in Fuerteventura. The paper shows that the level of involvement of tourist accommodation in CSR is positive. However, this involvement is not sufficiently high to meet the requirements of a destination designated as a BR. Therefore, coordination policies should be developed that promote governance systems and further enhance sustainability in the destination.
Planners are concerned about the future, the future of cities and regions in particular. However, the future is full of surprise—at least this is what complexity science and concepts like resilience suggest. Unfortunately, planning research has not yet developed a genuine approach to surprise. The paper follows a modest ambition to further planning research with regard to surprise. It proposes a definition of “surprise”, interprets dealing with surprise as component of a commitment to resilience, and presents some ideas how to perform foresight and surprise preparation by actors that are involved in urban development. The paper then presents examples from empirical research to illustrate these ideas. The outline of a research agenda concludes the paper.
Technological progress does not happen in a social vacuum. Shaping of tomorrow is not possible without qualitative analyses. Therefore, the social and psychological dimensions of reality form an important part of technology foresight. Qualitative research will be needed to understand superficial and deep structures of social realities. So called push and pull factors are always linked to social behaviour. People's relationship to the use of technologies and the utilization of technologies is a complex and not a one-dimensional or monological issue. Monological methodological approaches can be harmful and confusing in the field of participatory foresight. We can conclude that the cycles of deductive and inductive logic are needed in science and in participatory foresight studies. Experts of the FTA community must have a higher level of methodological know-how in this research field and they should use qualitative methods in multi-faceted (external and internal) ways in foresight studies. Still the qualitative parts of many studies are quite monological and these studies can be quite problematic, even confusing. More critical methodological approaches should be taken into serious consideration. As a methodological approach, the principle of triangulation should be used more in the fields of participatory foresight studies and technology foresight.
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to propose and discuss a new regional foresight methodology.
Design/methodology/approach
The first part describes the methodology and the organizational process adopted for implementing foresight at the regional level and highlights the criticalities. The research methodology is based on a case study. The case is the analysis of the industrial and regional sectors and the technological families in the Lombardy region.
Findings
This methodology analyses trends, technologies and industries, returning a set of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Then, it aggregates them, building two matrixes (trends/technologies and technologies/industries). Finally, it evaluates the future importance of a technology (the attractiveness of a technology for the long-term competitiveness of the regional main industrial sectors) and the capabilities of the regional industrial, technical and scientific system to develop specific technologies (feasibility for the regional system to develop the chosen technology).
Originality/value
The originality lies in an integrated analysis of the possible futures and their relation with the industrial world. Its value is as a tool to suggest policies and R&D investments. It is possible to provide a sound basis for science and technology policymaking.
Regional level has been identified as the key institutional level for economic development policies. However, in Norway and Sweden regional economic development as a policy field is to a limited extent placed under the control of directly elected regional parliaments, whereas the most important instruments for stimulating regional economic development and innovation are controlled by national government and regional state offices. In this article we discuss the theoretical and normative arguments for centralizing or decentralizing instruments for enhancing regional economic development and the implications of the fact that strong instruments for enhancing regional economic development are controlled by national government in these countries.
After years of a primarily and technocratic debate on European governance, it is time to emphasize the term´s normative dimension. This book singles out participation as the issue most crucial to it. Participatory governance is introduced not as part of the problem but as part of the solution. Going beyond Robert Dahl´s democratic dilemma, the contributors try to identify and describe modes of governance based on system effectiveness cum citizen participation. The concept is first developed in a theory section and then followed by chapters on the multi-level and the multi-sector contexts within which its empirical manifestations are travelling. A conclusion comments on the White Paper on Governance by the European Commission and on the implications of likely governance failure.
This has been made possible by a generous grant of the EU Commission under the Fifth Framework Programme on Research and Development.
Governance is clearly a notion whose time has come. It appears to move easily across philosophical and disciplinary boundaries, diverse fields of practical application, the manifold scales of social life, and different political camps and tendencies. This terminological mobility enables it to organise significant narratives about contemporary social transformation. Yet it is also clear that governance is a polyvalent and polycontextural notion. Its meaning varies by context and it is being deployed for quite contrary, if not plain contradictory, purposes. And, by virtue of these terminological uncertainties, it is doubtful whether governance sans phrase can really provide a compelling theoretical entrypoint for analysing contemporary social transformation or a compelling practical entrypoint for coping with complexity. It is this paradox that I wish to pursue and resolve in the following reflections on governance, with the ultimate intention of providing a clear account of the nature and limitations of governance and meta-governance in a complex world.1
The process of knowledge production exhibits a very distinctive geography. This article argues that this geography is fundamental, not incidental, to the innovation process itself: that one simply cannot understand innovation properly if one does not appreciate the central role of spatial proximity and concentration in this process. The goal of this article is to demonstrate why this is true, and to examine how innovation systems at the subnational scale play a key part in producing and reproducing this uneven geography over time. This article addresses four key issues. First, it looks at the reason why location matters when it comes to innovative activity. Second, it turns to examine regional innovation systems, and the role played by them in generating and circulating new knowledge leading to innovation. Third, the article considers the relationship between regional systems of innovation and institutional frameworks at the national level. Finally, the relationship between local and global knowledge flows is examined.
There is more coordination in the modern world than is plausibly explained by the classical mechanisms of community, market, hierarchy and their commonly discussed variants. This paper explores modalities of non-market coordination whose application is not constrained by the narrow motivational and cognitive limitations of pure forms of hierarchical and negotiated coordination. The focus is on two varieties of negotiated self-coordination under conditions where actual negotiations are embedded in a pre-existing structural context - either within hierarchical organizations or within self-organizing networks of cooperative relationships. Extrapolating from empirical findings in a variety of settings, it is argued that embeddedness will, at the same time, increase the scope of welfare maximizing `positive coordination' and create conditions under which externalities are inhibited through `negative coordination'. In combination, these mechanisms are able to explain much of the de facto coordination that seems to exist beyond the confines of efficient markets and hierarchies.
Evaluating organizations according to an efficiency criterion would make it possible to predict the form organizations will take under certain conditions. Organization theory has not developed such a criterion because it has lacked a conceptual scheme capable of describing organizational efficiency in sufficiently microsopic terms. The transactions cost approach provides such a framework because it allows us to identify the conditions which give rise to the costs of mediating exchanges between individuals: goal incongruence and performance ambiguity. Different combinations of these causes distinguish three basic mechanisms of mediation or control: markets, which are efficient when performance ambiguity is low and goal incongruence is high; bureaucracies, which are efficient when both goal incongruence and performance ambiguity are moderately high; and clans, which are efficient when goal incongruence is low and performance ambiguity is high.
As the tasks of the state have become more complex and the size of polities larger and more heterogeneous, the institutional forms of liberal democracy developed in the nineteenth century—representative democracy plus techno- bureaucratic administration—seem increasingly ill suited to the novel problems we face in the twenty-first century. "Democracy" as a way of organizing the state has come to be narrowly identified with territorially based competitive elections of political leadership for legislative and executive offices. Yet, increasingly, this mechanism of political representation seems ineffective in accomplishing the central ideals of democratic politics: facilitating active political involvement of the citizenry, forging political consensus through dialogue, devising and imple- menting public policies that ground a productive economy and healthy society, and, in more radical egalitarian versions of the democratic ideal, ensuring that all citizens benefit from the nation's wealth. The Right of the political spectrum has taken advantage of this apparent decline in the effectiveness of democratic institutions to escalate its attack on the very idea of the affirmative state. The only way the state can play a competent and constructive role, the Right typically argues, is to dramatically reduce the scope and depth of its activities. In addition to the traditional moral opposition of liber- tarians to the activist state on the grounds that it infringes on property rights and
Governance through the negotiated interaction of a plurality of public, semi-public and private actors seems to provide an efficient means for governing our increasingly complex, fragmented and multi-layered societies. However, the big question is whether governance networks also contribute to the democratic governance of society. Governance network theory and post-liberal theories of democracy claim that there are both democratic problems and potentials associated with interactive network governance. In order to be able to assess, and possibly improve, the democratic performance of governance networks, the authors of this article develop and substantiate an analytical model for measuring the democratic anchorage of governance networks in different political constituencies and in an appropriate set of democratic rules and norms. In addition, it is argued that politicians should play a key role in efforts to ensure the democratic anchorage of governance networks.
It is widely argued that increased community participation in government decision making produces many important benefits. Dissent is rare: It is difficult to envision anything but positive outcomes from citizens joining the policy process, collaborating with others and reaching consensus to bring about positive social and environmental change. This article, motivated by contextual problems encountered in a participatory watershed management initiative, reviews the citizen-participation literature and analyzes key considerations in determining whether community participation is an effective policy-making tool. We list conditions under which community participation may be costly and ineffective and when it can thrive and produce the greatest gains in effective citizen governance. From the detritus of an unsuccessful citizen-participation effort, we arrive at a more informed approach to guide policy makers in choosing a decision-making process that is appropriate for a community's particular needs.
The practice of both competitive intelligence (CI) and foresight attempt to prevent strategic surprise by noticing and attending to signals earlier rather than later. Using analogies with human vision, we examine how organizations can see, notice and attend better to their business and competitive environments. Though discarding information is a necessary part of any intelligent and/or intelligence process, the increasing use of 2020 vision statements, seemingly expressing prescient foresightful activity, can lead to tunnel vision and encourage over-focusing, looking too hard in one direction, by neglecting both context and periphery while ignoring the discarding of information that is taking place. We consider problems of blind spots, differences between passive and active vision, the privileging of foveal (focused and central) over peripheral (contextual) vision, and why we need the periphery, both visually and organizationally. Postmodern thinking can usefully inform CI or other foresightful activities so as to better see the unseen, and spot excluded voices. We conclude by suggesting serendipity as a possible approach, so as to ultimately help see with new eyes, as Proust would have it, adopting a deliberately sideways look at one's business context to enhance foresightful looking straightforward towards a or the future.
The paper examines how firms in three regional clusters in Norway dominated by shipbuilding, mechanical engineering and electronics industry, respectively exploit both place-specific local resources as well as external, world-class knowledge to strengthen their competitiveness. From these case-studies we make four points: (1) ideal-typical regional innovation systems, i.e., regional clusters "surrounded" by supporting local organisations, is rather uncommon in Norway; (2) external contacts, outside of the local industrial milieu, are crucial in innovation processes also in many SMEs; (3) innovation processes may nevertheless be regarded as regional phenomena in regional clusters, as regional resources and collaborative networks often have decisive significance for firms' innovation activity; and (4) regional resources include in particular place-specific, contextual knowledge of both tacit and codified nature, that, in combination, is rather geographically immobile. Copyright 2002 by Kluwer Academic Publishers
Science and Technology Foresight (STF) is an interactive and systematic exploration of future dynamics of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying and supporting viable strategies and actions for stakeholders. In comparison to futures studies and forecasting, the literature on foresight has paid little attention to its actual strategic value. In this paper we review the 1995-1999 foresight programme of the Dutch National Council for Agricultural Research, and evaluate some key dimensions of the foresight process, including the selection and range of participants, the immediate impact of interactive tools such as workshops and the ultimate effect on the strategic thinking in the agricultural sector. The evaluation indicates that strategic thinking in the Dutch agricultural sector has improved. The paper concludes with suggestions for monitoring and evaluation of foresight that may increase the understanding of foresight's strategic value. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The basic assumption from which the demand to extend public participation in the process of policy design and implementation within the EU is inspired seems to be straightforward, and it comes in two parts. First, the institutional chain of (indirect) democratic legitimacy in a multi-level context is necessarily rather weak and porous. This is not least because the network-driven logic of policy formation crosscuts the logic of representative accountability and thus introduces additional intra- as well as inter-institutional tensions into the European institutional system (see Christiansen 2001). Therefore, one obvious solution to the “democratic deficit” is to draw more systematically on the direct inclusion and involvement of citizens, both individually and collectively. And second, this “participatory recipe” for curing the structural shortcomings of representative institutions within a system characterised by dispersion, polycentricity and fragmentation (von Bogdandy 1999) derives its attractiveness from the assumption that there is a direct and mutually reinforcing link between the virtues of direct participation on the one hand and the efficiency, effectiveness and sustainability of policies that emerge under such conditions on the other.
What kind of criteria should an appropriate model for the democratization of governance beyond the state fulfil? Can we identify elements of an ideal type for democratic governance beyond the state? Just like the attempt to identify and evaluate the supposed democratic deficit which is generally associated with the internationalization of governance, any discussion about its redemocratization requires a set of appropriate normative criteria which must be compatible with the specific milieu in which governance beyond the state takes place. Any judgement about and preference for certain options heavily depend on how we conceptionalize this milieu and on whether we regard it as receptive to certain standards and requirements of democratic theory in the first place. That said, there is no way around conceptionalizing the space to be democratized in an adequate way before we can develop the normative criteria which may be applicable to it. Even the diagnosis of a supposed democratic deficit will have little persuasive power if we fail to state clearly which demands in regard to legitimation can adequately be brought forward at all if we are dealing with governance beyond the state.
1. Introduction 2. How to Achieve Governability at the Local Level? Theoretical and conceptual considerations 3. Sustainability and Policy Challenge: Towards a contextual and reflexive understanding of institutional performance 4. Participation & Leadership in Planning Theory and Practices 5. Rules and Practices. An institutional analysis on complementarities between urban leadership and community involvement 6. Cities in the European Multi-level Governance 7. Multi-actor Governance 8. The Institutional Setting of Local Political Leadership and Community Involvement 9. States in Transition: From statism to democracy 10. Leading Localities: Rethinking the Agenda 11. Changes in Urban Political Leadership: Leadership types and styles in the era of urban governance 12. Legitimacy, Citizen Participation, and Community Involvement in Governance 13. Measuring Institutional Performance in Achieving Urban Sustainability
Interpretative policy analysis rests on a long tradition of philosophical argumentation that stands on its own, without reference to positivist argument. Its hallmark is a focus on meaning that is situated in a particular context. The language of ‘interpretative’ policy analysis underscores the extent to which methodological choices, rather than being a disembodied repertoire of tools and techniques, are grounded in a particular set of epistemological and ontological presuppositions – in this case, those associated with interpretative schools of thought (such as hermeneutics, phenomenology, and some critical theory). This chapter elaborates on the importance to policy analysis of ‘local’ knowledge relative to a policy issue and sketches out some interpretative research methods for accessing and analysing it. Policy analysis and communities of meaning The construction of diverse meanings for described political events shapes support for causes and legitimizes value allocations. The literature on the place of symbolism in politics explores the creation of meaning through political language and other actions … The student of symbolism is interested in how meanings are constructed and changed. Inquiry into the evocation of meanings entails seeing observers and the observed as part of the same transaction rather than as subject and object, and it also recognizes that values, theories, and facts are integrally intertwined with each other rather than distinct concepts. Murray Edelman The centrality of communities of meaning to policy analysis becomes evident in what was initially called a ‘cultural’ approach to public policy processes, including those organizational actions subsumed under implementation studies (Yanow 1987, 1990).
The aim of this project is to examine new forms of governance for promoting sustainability and innovation and to place this discussion in the context of a multi-level polity (i.e. the European Union). Its principal hypothesis is that the participation of individuals and organizations in governance arrangements can not only improve both sustainability and innovation, but also make them compatible with each other. And, its second — more implicit — hypothesis is that these arrangements are not only compatible with liberal democracy, but also can contribute to legitimizing the European Union.
'I shall reconsider human knowledge by starting from the fact that we can know more than we can tell', writes Michael Polanyi, whose work paved the way for the likes of Thomas Kuhn and Karl Popper. "The Tacit Dimension", originally published in 1967, argues that such tacit knowledge - tradition, inherited practices, implied values, and prejudgments - is a crucial part of scientific knowledge. Back in print for a new generation of students and scholars, this volume challenges the assumption that skepticism, rather than established belief, lies at the heart of scientific discovery.
With the publication of his best-selling books "Competitive Strategy (1980) and "Competitive Advantage (1985), Michael E. Porter of the Harvard Business School established himself as the world's leading authority on competitive advantage. Now, at a time when economic performance rather than military might will be the index of national strength, Porter builds on the seminal ideas of his earlier works to explore what makes a nation's firms and industries competitive in global markets and propels a whole nation's economy. In so doing, he presents a brilliant new paradigm which, in addition to its practical applications, may well supplant the 200-year-old concept of "comparative advantage" in economic analysis of international competitiveness. To write this important new work, Porter and his associates conducted in-country research in ten leading nations, closely studying the patterns of industry success as well as the company strategies and national policies that achieved it. The nations are Britain, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Korea, Singapore, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United States. The three leading industrial powers are included, as well as other nations intentionally varied in size, government policy toward industry, social philosophy, and geography. Porter's research identifies the fundamental determinants of national competitive advantage in an industry, and how they work together as a system. He explains the important phenomenon of "clustering," in which related groups of successful firms and industries emerge in one nation to gain leading positions in the world market. Among the over 100 industries examined are the German chemical and printing industries, Swisstextile equipment and pharmaceuticals, Swedish mining equipment and truck manufacturing, Italian fabric and home appliances, and American computer software and movies. Building on his theory of national advantage in industries and clusters, Porter identifies the stages of competitive development through which entire national economies advance and decline. Porter's finding are rich in implications for both firms and governments. He describes how a company can tap and extend its nation's advantages in international competition. He provides a blueprint for government policy to enhance national competitive advantage and also outlines the agendas in the years ahead for the nations studied. This is a work which will become the standard for all further discussions of global competition and the sources of the new wealth of nations.
Governance and closure: an uncomfortably linked pair. For do governance networks not guarantee openness? If so, then when would networks tend to be closed? And if closure occurs, can it help to explain governance network failure, that is, the ‘inability to provide efficient governance through negotiated interaction between a plurality of actors’ (see Chapter 5)? Or does the cause of governance network failure lie within the definition itself? For a significant presupposition is present within this definition; that is, governmental actors intend to steer, but how can one steer through negotiations?
The article argues that the present Danish urban policy and urban democracy can be characterized by a striking duality and tension between: (1) Participatory empowering welfare oriented community strategies, which targets deprived districts and neighbourhoods, which are based on notions of the inclusive city. This trend is founded on priorities of radical democracy, social justice, inclusion and citizens empowerment; (2) Neo-elitist/corporative market driven strategic regional and global growth strategies, which are based on notions of the Entrepreneurial Globalized City and where urban policy becomes a question of facilitation of the “growth machine” and neo-liberalized urban authoritarianism. The article discusses dilemmas for overcoming the growing tension between elitist neo-corporate growth regimes, which are in operation via “Quangoes” and closed elite networks, and community empowerment and welfare oriented policy in the age of globalization. Taking the stand of community empowerment and welfare policy, the article conclusively discusses ways to shape a new inclusive politics of difference including using “positive selectivism” as part of an empowerment strategy.
The concept of ‘governance’ has become a central catchword across the social and political sciences. In Governing and Governance, Jan Kooiman revisits and develops his seminal work in the field to map and demonstrate the utility of a sociopolitical perspective to our understanding of contemporary forms of governing, governance and governability. A central underlying theme of the book is the notion of governance as a process of interaction between different societal and political actors and the growing interdependencies between the two as modern societies become ever more complex, dynamic and diverse. Drawing upon a wide range of interdisciplinary insights, the book advances a comprehensive conceptual framework that seeks to capture the different elements, modes and orders of governing and governance. A series of useful distinctions are employed, for example, between self, ‘co’, and hierarchical modes, and between first, second, or meta orders to illustrate the many different structures and levels of modern governance today. Theoretically rich and illuminating, Governing and Governance will be essential reading for all students and academics across the social and political sciences, public management and public administration.
Hidden beneath the surface of the fury of the current flurry of institutional national foresight activity are many paradoxes. Seven such paradoxes are explored in this paper in order to expose some myths and some conveniently ignored aspects of institutional foresight. Most controversial are perhaps the difference between real foresight and its institutional counterpart, and the role of the behavioural traits that have an intense influence on the conduct of foresight, which is seen as an ineluctable activity in human development.
1. Political Democracy in a Capitalist Economy 2. Negative and Positive Integration 3. Regulatory Competition and Re-Regulation 4. National Solutions without Boundary Control 5. The European Contribution Conclusion: Multi-level Problem-Solving in Europe References Index
Shows that current elitist theories are based on an inadequate understanding of the early writings of democratic theory and that much sociological evidence has been ignored.
Partnership has become a central principle of European Union (EU) policies, particularly in relation to the structural funds. This article considers the diffusion of the partnership principle in the EU, focusing on Britain and Sweden. It is concerned with two questions. First, has the partnership principle led to a process of harmonisation across states or to national resistance? Second, to what extent has the partnership principle enhanced the legitimacy of EU decision making?
The evidence presented here suggests that though there has not been significant resistance to the partnership principle within Britain and Sweden, the EU’s requirements have been interpreted and implemented differently in the two states. Thus it is more appropriate to speak of ‘adaptation’ to partnership rather than ‘adoption’. This is explained by what we summarise as ‘national democratic traditions’.
In terms of democratic legitimacy, the Swedish adaptation to partnership was nominally more democratic in that local politicians were readily involved from the outset, whereas in Britain they were not. However, the importance of this inclusion should not be overstated in relation to substantive democratic legitimacy. The Swedish model was not supported by well-articulated democratic strategies or principles. Despite the limitations of the Swedish model, recent developments suggest that Britain is following a similar path.
In recent years, new regionally based strategy-building processes emerged at the interface between public policy and the social coordination of collective action. Foresight as a governance process to stimulate regional innovation and strengthen the regional economic system against global competition became a popular concept. Based on the experiences of a strategy-building process in the Italian autonomous province of Trento, it is the objective of this paper to sketch recent theoretical and political developments regarding multi-actor and multi-level governance and policy concepts at the regional level.
The term 'governance' is popular but imprecise. It has at least six uses, referring to: the minimal state; corporate governance; the new public management; 'good governance'; socio-cybernetic systems; and self-organizing networks. I stipulate that governance refers to 'self-organizing, interorganizational networks' and argue these networks complement markets and hierarchies as governing structures for authoritatively allocating resources and exercising control and co-ordination. I defend this definition, arguing that it throws new light on recent changes in British government, most notably: hollowing out the state, the new public management, and intergovernmental manage-ment. I conclude that networks are now a pervasive feature of service delivery in Britain; that such networks are characterized by trust and mutual adjustment and undermine management reforms rooted in competition: and that they are a challenge to governability because they become autonomous and resist central guidance.
This article examines a detailed case study of implementation networks in England using the example of the relocation of the Norfolk and Norwich hospital, which became a flagship PFI project for the Labour government after 1997. The case study illustrates the workings of the new order of multi-layered governance with both local and national networks from different policy areas interacting. However, it also sheds light on the governance debate and illustrates how in the world of new public management, powerful actors, or policy entrepreneurs, with their own agenda, still have the facility, by exercising power and authority, to shape and determine the policy outputs through implementation networks. It is argued that, whereas policy networks are normally portrayed as enriching and promoting pluralist democratic processes, implementation networks in multi-layered government can also undermine democratic accountability. Four aspects here are pertinent: (1) the degree of central government power; (2) local elite domination; (3) the fragmentation of responsibility; and (4) the dynamics of decision making which facilitates the work of policy entrepreneurs. All these factors illustrate the importance of ‘the government of governance’ in the British state.
We critically compare two illustrative cases where local government and partner organisations sought substantive grounds for collaboration on e-government, by gaining foresight from the application of the scenario methodology. On the basis of our case analyses, we show that inter-organisational fragmentation may be attenuated by the application of scenario method—which acts to enhance inter-organisational foresight. We demonstrate that the scenario method achieves this by promoting a non-adversarial, strategic conversation that can enable new and creative insights to be gained across the participant agencies. However, on the basis of one of the cases, we propose the need for early critical consideration of the influencing role of the project sponsor/leader within such a collaborative network.
The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement.
A key question for policymakers at the regional and local level is how to provide the right conditions for generating the growth of more knowledge-intensive forms of economic activity within the context of dynamic innovation systems or learning regions. Regional foresight exercises may provide a useful instrument in helping chart their economic strategies. Successful regions must be able to engage in regional foresight exercises that identify and cultivate their assets, undertake collaborative processes to plan and implement change, and encourage a regional mindset that fosters growth. Communities and regions, like companies, need to innovate and adapt to remain competitive. As a result, successful regions must be able to engage in regional foresight exercises that identify and cultivate their assets, undertake collaborative processes to plan and implement change, and encourage a regional mindset that fosters growth. This paper provides an overview of these issues by reviewing the most important ideas in the recent literature on innovation systems, technological dynamism and local economic development. We regard regional foresight processes to be, at their most fundamental level, socially organized learning processes involving learning by individuals, by firms, and by institutions. One of our central concerns is to show how the actions of individuals to shape collective local visioning exercises interact with larger institutional structures to produce local outcomes.
Recent changes in the context for English governance are creating new opportunities for futures thinking at urban and regional level. Drawing on a study of key stakeholders concerned with urban and regional development, this paper presents an analysis of current approaches to future thinking amongst policy-makers in England’s North West region. The study offered an opportunity to explore attitudes to foresight and existing capacities amongst public, private and voluntary organisations, to find out best practices in different sectors, and to investigate potential gaps, constraints and needs in terms of futures thinking. The paper describes the main results from the North West study and concludes by exploring ways of enhancing the capacity for territorial foresight at urban and regional levels.
It is still disputed whether foresight exercises should be based on top-expert assessments or on a broader base of less specialised experts, and whether the self-rating of experts is an acceptable method. Using the German 1993 and the Austrian 1998 Technology Delphis, this study addresses both questions. Self-rating is, in fact, an appropriate method for selecting experts. But the assessment of self-rated top experts tend to suffer from an optimism bias due to the experts' involvement and their underestimation of realisation and diffusion problems. The degree of optimism is positively correlated with the degree of self-rated knowledge, and it is more pronounced for the least pioneering and for organizational innovations. Experts with top self-ratings working in business have a stronger optimism bias than those working in the academia or in the administration: Consistent with the insider hypothesis, they are most optimistic with regard to realisation, innovativeness, and potential leadership in economic exploitation. Given the optimism bias, foresight exercises should base their panels on a fair mixture of experts of different grades, with different types of knowledge and affiliation, and not only on top specialists of the respective field. Delphi-type exercises, therefore, offer an advantage relative to forum groups or small panels of specialists.
Incl. bibliographical notes and references, index, biographical note on the author
This paper focuses attention on the ways in which knowledge operates to structure and limit what can possibly be done in community-building initiatives. Specifically, we devote attention to the forms of knowledge either categorized as ‘local’ or ‘expert’. This paper draws out a theoretical basis to understand how community-building as a process, and professional community-building practitioners themselves, often create, maintain, and police these epistemological boundaries, and through case studies illustrate how this impacts people's access to putting knowledge into action.
- Gustavsen B.
Final Report from a High Level Expert Group for the European Commission
- Hleg-Report
Towards a typology for evaluating foresight exercises. Paper presented at an EU-US Seminar: New Technology Foresight, Forecasting and Assessment Methods. May13-14
- L Georghiou
- M Keenan
Mapping Report (The European Foresight Monitoring Network
- R Popper
- M Keenan
- M Butter
- Benhabib S.
- Georghiou L.