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Marine Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate: A Review of Vulnerability and Future Options
Abstract and Figures
Marine capture fisheries are an important source of protein globally, with coastal and oceanic fish providing a rich source of essential fatty acids, vitamins, and minerals. Fisheries also support economies and important social structures in many nations, particularly developing nations (Allison et al., 2009). Marine fisheries are under increasing threat from climate change, with climate change now identified as the latest threat to the world's fast declining fish stocks (UNEP, 2008; Cochrane et al., 2009). Marine fisheries will be exposed to increasing sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification, sea level rise, increasing storm intensity and altered ocean circulation, and rainfall patterns that will affect target species through a range of direct and indirect mechanisms. The sensitivity of fish stocks to these changes will determine the range of potential impacts to life cycles, species distributions, community structure, productivity, connectivity, organism performance, recruitment dynamics, prevalence of invasive species, and access to marine resources by fishers. Many fisheries are already experiencing changes in target species diversity and abundance, species distribution, and habitat area, as well as loss of fishing effort due to intensifying storms (Johnson and Marshall, 2007; Hobday et al., 2008; UNEP, 2008). Using a vulnerability assessment framework, we examine the level of vulnerability of marine fisheries to climate change and the factors that will temper vulnerability, such as adaptive capacity. Assessing fisheries vulnerability to climate change is essential to prioritize systems in greatest need of intervention, understand the drivers of vulnerability to identify future research directions, and more importantly, to review current fisheries management with the view to develop management responses that will be effective in securing the future sustainability of marine fisheries.
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... Much of the research on negative impacts of climate change on marine systems is focused on changes of species abundance, distribution, and life cycles due to changes in sea-ice coverage, ocean acidification, and/or changing sea surface temperatures (Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). These projected biological changes have clear implications for human social and economic systems that are reliant on marine resources (Johnson and Welch 2009;Sainsbury et al. 2018;Hall-Spencer and Harvey 2019;Jara et al. 2020). ...
... Severe coastal storms can lead to physical disturbances of fish habitat and impacts on species richness, biomass, and density, which in turn impact socioeconomic aspects of marine resourcedependent communities (Sainsbury et al. 2018;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). Current scholarship focuses on the vulnerability of capture fisheries to climate change, but only a few studies have directly considered impacts due to storms (Johnson and Welch 2009;Chang et al. 2013;Sainsbury et al. 2018;Jara et al. 2020;Macusi et al. 2020;Turner, McConney, and Monnereau 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021), mostly because large uncertainties remain regarding the science around changes in storminess (Turner, McConney, and Monnereau 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). Coastal storms have adverse effects on fishing efforts, navigation, access to markets, loss or damage of fishing infrastructure, risks that fishers encounter at sea, and fishers' livelihoods (Sainsbury et al. 2018;Macusi et al. 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). ...
... Fisheries lacking data or technology may face challenges implementing DOM, but delaying action until ideal conditions are met risks missed opportunities and emerging problems (Planque et al., 2010). Local knowledge and participatory co-management hold strong potential to facilitate adjusting management amidst change (Goethel et al., 2022;Johnson & Welch, 2010). With mounting changes, prioritizing local stewardship to collect targeted data with existing resources can directly address management objectives (Goethel et al., 2022). ...
Dynamic ocean management (DOM) is a critical approach for protecting highly migratory species amid environmental variability and change. We conducted an adapted systematic review to assess how animal movement and environmental data are used in DOM applications, identifying key data traits, barriers, and research priorities. Animal tag data inform initial assessments of species distributions, development of habitat models, near real‐time model inputs, and iterative model evaluation for dynamic management. In documented examples, effective translation of scientific insights into dynamic management products has resulted from early communication between researchers and stakeholders, integration of environmental and fisheries‐dependent data into advanced habitat modeling approaches, and reformatting of outputs for interdisciplinary needs. However, challenges persist around data gaps, science‐policy translation, and technical capacity limitations. Our findings highlight the importance of intentional, collaborative data collection, translation, and sharing to enable dynamic, climate‐resilient management of migratory species. We demonstrate DOM's adaptability and provide guidance for researchers and practitioners to contribute and use impactful data that informs responsive management decision‐making.
... This study adopted the vulnerability framework as its guiding framework (Johnson & Welch, 2009). Vulnerability arises from the characteristics of properties and activities within interconnected socio-ecological systems (Turner et al., 2003). ...
... According to the latter, species are scored into the VH category when ≥ 3 individual attributes have mean values ≥ 3.5, into the H category when ≥ 2 of the attributes have mean values ≥ 3.0, into the M category when ≥ 2 attributes have mean values ≥ 2.5, and into the L category when < 2 attributes have mean values ≥ 2.5. Usually a logic rule is preferred over numeric averages because attributes and factors are not intended to be correlated 29 . However, using numeric values allowed us to analyse the variability of SA i between species using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Hierarchical Clustering (see below). ...
Marine fisheries are increasingly impacted by climate change, affecting species distribution and productivity, and necessitating urgent adaptation efforts. Climate vulnerability assessments (CVA), integrating expert knowledge, are vital for identifying species that could thrive or suffer under changing environmental conditions. This study presents a first CVA for the Western Baltic Sea's fish community, a crucial fishing area for Denmark and Germany. Characterized by a unique mix of marine, brackish, and freshwater species, this coastal ecosystem faces significant changes due to the combined effects of overfishing, eutrophication and climate change. Our CVA involved a qualitative expert scoring of 22 fish species, assessing their sensitivity and exposure to climate change. Our study revealed a dichotomy in climate change vulnerability within the fish community of the Western Baltic Sea because traditional fishing targets cod and herring as well as other species with complex life histories are considered to face increased risks, whereas invasive or better adaptable species might thrive under changing conditions. Our findings hence demonstrate the complex interplay between life-history traits and climate change vulnerability in marine fish communities. Eventually, our study provides critical knowledge for the urgent development of tailored adaptation efforts addressing existing but especially future effects of climate change on fish and fisheries in the Western Baltic Sea, to navigate this endangered fisheries systems into a sustainable future.
... At present, some consensus on the content of vulnerability has been reached, and some common terms related to vulnerability elements have emerged in the conceptualization, including exposure, sensitivity, and adaptability. In the field of fisheries, some have borrowed from this framework for vulnerability assessment (Johnson and Welch, 2009). However, an exact definition of vulnerability in the fishery system has not yet been determined. ...
Coastal fishery systems are vital for both the environment and the economy, and at present, they face heightened vulnerability due to global climate change and natural disasters. A clearer understanding of the challenges that the system presents can be obtained by examining the vulnerabilities of fishery systems. This study employed a vulnerability scoping diagram framework and a multi-indicator approach combined with the entropy weight method for assigning weights to systematically evaluate the vulnerabilities of fishery systems in China’s coastal provinces. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of vulnerability were analyzed and characterized, and the primary obstacles that affect vulnerability are discussed. The findings suggest that China’s coastal provinces’ fishery systems display vulnerability in terms of both time and space. From a temporal perspective, Liaoning, Hebei, and Shandong provinces exhibited an increasing trend in vulnerability, while Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, and Hainan showed decreasing trends. From a spatial perspective, Hainan and Liaoning’s fishery systems exhibited extremely high vulnerability in most years. In contrast, Tianjin consistently experienced extremely low vulnerability in most years. From the perspective of obstacles, the main factor was the funding for the extension of aquaculture technology, and this remained the primary obstacle factor across all years. The findings are significant for enhancing our understanding of vulnerability in fishery systems and for strengthening disaster prevention and mitigation measures. The results provide robust support for the improvement of management and the protection of fishery systems.
黄东海是太平洋重要的边缘海，拥有丰富的海洋生物多样性资源，但在气候变化及人类活动的双重胁迫下，黄东海面临生物多样性衰退等问题，亟需加强保护。保护区网络被认为可有效防止或减缓人类活动和气候变化对生物多样性的负面影响，但连通性作为保护区网络的重要参数却很难直接测量。因此，本研究希望通过梳理已发表的黄东海间遗传连通性文献来揭示黄东海区域内的保护区是否形成网络。通过搜集已发表的137篇文献，共获得175个研究案例。超过半数的案例(65.71%)认为黄东海之间具有显著的遗传分化，这也意味着跨生态区群体间具有较低的遗传连通性。在总结影响因素时发现长江冲淡水、生境异质性、空间距离、进化过程、生活史(较短的浮游幼体期)、洋流等6个因素阻碍了黄东海群体间的遗传连通性，而洋流、生活史(较长的浮游幼体期)等2个因素促进了遗传连通性。进一步分析发现黄东海群体间的遗传连通性与空间距离呈显著的负相关，而与浮游幼体期呈正相关。因此，根据本研究结果，建议未来保护区网络建设应针对黄、东海生态区分别构建网络，在网络设计时应考虑保护对象的扩散能力及保护区间的空间距离。本研究不仅为构建涵盖黄东海的海洋保护区网络提供理论基础，也为跨生态区构建海洋保护区网络以及其他沿海地区的海洋保护地建设提供参考。
Response of fishery and aquaculture to climate change.pdf
The potential effects of global climate change on marine protected areas do not appear to have been addressed in the literature. This paper examines the literature on protected areas, conservation biology, marine ecology, oceanography, and climate change, and reviews some of the relevant differences between marine and terrestrial environments. Frameworks and classifications systems used in protected area design are discussed. Finally, a framework that summarizes some of the important oceanographic processes and their links to the food chain are reviewed. Species abundance and distribution are expected to change as a result of global climate change, potentially compromising the efficacy of marine protected areas as biodiversity conservation tools. This review suggests the need for further interdisciplinary research and the use of linked models; an increase in marine protected areas for biodiversity conservation and as research sites for teasing apart fishing effects from climate effects; a temporally responsive approach to siting new marine protected areas, shifting their locations if necessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integrated management approaches to address the competing uses of the oceans and boundary-less threats such as global climate change and pollution.
As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a 'forecasting by analogy' approach, which draws upon experiences from the recent past in coping with regional fluctuations in the abundance or availability of living marine resources, it is shown how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. The book takes the form of a series of integrated case studies from around the globe, which are presented by an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers. This important and thought-provoking volume will be of interest to a wide range of scientists working in the fields of biology, marine and environmental science, climatology, economics and anthropology, as well as resource managers and policy makers concerned with the health and future of living marine resources.
Physical factors, including currents, tides, rainfall and runoff, affect larval dispersal from the offshore spawning grounds to the nursery grounds. They also affect immigration and emigration of postlarvae and juveniles to and from the nursery grounds. Biotic factors such as mangrove extent and seagrass extent, species composition and density will affect the carrying capacity of these nursery grounds, the population size of subsequent stages and hence the ultimate catches. If the greenhouse effect leads to higher sea levels, higher rainfall and increased cyclone activity we would expect an increase in banana prawn Penaeus merguiensis catches and a decrease in tiger prawn P. esculentus and P. semisulcatus catches largely due to alterations in nursery grounds. -from Authors
Ocean surveys show that extremely sharp thermal boundaries have limited the distribution of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas over the past 40 years. These limits are expressed as a step function, with the temperature defining the position of the thermal limit varying between months in an annual cycle. The sharpness of the edge, the different temperatures that define the position of the edge in different months of the year, and the subtle variations in temperature with area or decade for a given month probably all occur because temperature-dependent metabolic rates exceed energy intake from feeding over large regions of otherwise acceptable habitat in the North Pacific. At current rates of greenhouse gas emissions, predicted temperature increases under a doubled CO2 climate are large enough to shift the position of the thermal limits into the Bering Sea by the middle of the next century. Such an increase would potentially exclude sockeye salmon from the entire Paci...
Investigates the history of this fishery, which is regarded as a classic example of an open-access fishery which has been allowed to expand beyond the point of maximum long-term economic benefit. Resources which in recent decades had been viewed as limitless have been threatened by fishing pressures and habitat destruction. The major part of the article provides background information on the historical development of the fishery, and then considers management actions, the possible impacts of global warming, and lessons for the future. -P.Hardiman
A North Carolina reef fish community was resurveyed with scuba gear to determine if changes occurred in community structure after 15 years of intense fishing. Generally, fishes important in the recreational and commercial fisheries were smaller, and large changes occurred in relative abundance and species composition. Indicative of a warming trend, total species composition of fishes had become more tropical, and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude off the North Carolina coast became common. Two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes were recorded. Observations of 28 species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate species were observed, and the most abundant temperate species decreased by a factor of 22. Mean monthly bottom water temperatures in winter were 1-6°C warmer during the recent study. An increase in fish-cleaning symbiosis was especially noticeable. The study site is among the most northern permanent reef fish communities in the United States. Warmer bottom water temperatures along the subtidal continental shelf off Beaufort, North Carolina since 1977, have resulted in a dramatic increase in the tropical reef faunal composition. (Total species composition of fish became more tropical, and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude became prominent.) Divers recorded two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes. Observations of 28 other species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate fishes were observed, and the most abundant temperate fish decreased 22-fold. Fishery landings data also showed a shift toward a more tropical reef fish community. (Mean monthly winter bottom water temperatures were 1-6°C warmer during the recent study.) This reef fish community paper along with two other demersal fauna papers indicate that thermal conditions of the oceans in general are changing and that both temperate and tropical components of the faunal communities are concurrently shifting toward a more tropical composition of species.