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Marine Fisheries Management in a Changing Climate: A Review of Vulnerability and Future Options
Abstract and Figures
Marine capture fisheries are an important source of protein globally, with coastal and oceanic fish providing a rich source of essential fatty acids, vitamins, and minerals. Fisheries also support economies and important social structures in many nations, particularly developing nations (Allison et al., 2009). Marine fisheries are under increasing threat from climate change, with climate change now identified as the latest threat to the world's fast declining fish stocks (UNEP, 2008; Cochrane et al., 2009). Marine fisheries will be exposed to increasing sea surface temperatures, ocean acidification, sea level rise, increasing storm intensity and altered ocean circulation, and rainfall patterns that will affect target species through a range of direct and indirect mechanisms. The sensitivity of fish stocks to these changes will determine the range of potential impacts to life cycles, species distributions, community structure, productivity, connectivity, organism performance, recruitment dynamics, prevalence of invasive species, and access to marine resources by fishers. Many fisheries are already experiencing changes in target species diversity and abundance, species distribution, and habitat area, as well as loss of fishing effort due to intensifying storms (Johnson and Marshall, 2007; Hobday et al., 2008; UNEP, 2008). Using a vulnerability assessment framework, we examine the level of vulnerability of marine fisheries to climate change and the factors that will temper vulnerability, such as adaptive capacity. Assessing fisheries vulnerability to climate change is essential to prioritize systems in greatest need of intervention, understand the drivers of vulnerability to identify future research directions, and more importantly, to review current fisheries management with the view to develop management responses that will be effective in securing the future sustainability of marine fisheries.
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... Another approach is to set aside some of the catch limit to account for potentially diminishing or stressed fish stocks due to climate change (Johnson and Welch, 2010). This climate change catch quota aims to build in more precaution because of the inherent uncertainties related to how climate change will affect key parameters in stock assessments (Johnson and Welch, 2010). ...
... Another approach is to set aside some of the catch limit to account for potentially diminishing or stressed fish stocks due to climate change (Johnson and Welch, 2010). This climate change catch quota aims to build in more precaution because of the inherent uncertainties related to how climate change will affect key parameters in stock assessments (Johnson and Welch, 2010). This could in turn provide fisheries with greater resilience to climate and stock variability (Johnson and Welch, 2010). ...
... This climate change catch quota aims to build in more precaution because of the inherent uncertainties related to how climate change will affect key parameters in stock assessments (Johnson and Welch, 2010). This could in turn provide fisheries with greater resilience to climate and stock variability (Johnson and Welch, 2010). Long-term solutions to address fishery management under climate change will require extensive monitoring and updating of stock assessments in addition to refining data collection and sharing (Cvitanovic et al., 2015;Dunn et al., 2016;Frazão Santos et al., 2020). ...
Climate change is having profound effects on populations of fished species and the ecosystems on which they depend, lending to a growing body of work that advocates for climate resilience to be a priority in fishery management. Here, we provide a comprehensive analysis of the tools needed to manage for climate resiliency. The Antarctic region is among the most vulnerable to climate change, and thus, we then consider climate resilient management tools utilized by the Commission for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), the body responsible for the management of Antarctic marine living resources as part of the Antarctic Treaty System. We note progress, gaps, and opportunities for implementation. Across the literature, ecosystem-based management was cited as an appropriate tool for climate resilience of marine ecosystems, as was the use of climate model outputs (projections and simulations), marine protected areas (MPAs), and dynamic stock assessments. CCAMLR has a unique position where its Convention effectively mandates the principles of an ecosystem-based precautionary approach for managing fisheries, and many of its Member States have been advocating for climate initiatives within this approach. While CCAMLR has made limited overall progress towards ensuring climate resilience, it has advanced in some areas, such as MPA implementation, developing a risk assessment for krill, and including statements on climate change in fishery reports, although there is much work to be done. While climate change remains a worldwide issue that must be addressed on a global scale, CCAMLR holds the responsibility for adaptively managing Southern Ocean marine living resources for climate resilience.
... Much of the research on negative impacts of climate change on marine systems is focused on changes of species abundance, distribution, and life cycles due to changes in sea-ice coverage, ocean acidification, and/or changing sea surface temperatures (Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). These projected biological changes have clear implications for human social and economic systems that are reliant on marine resources (Johnson and Welch 2009;Sainsbury et al. 2018;Hall-Spencer and Harvey 2019;Jara et al. 2020). ...
... Severe coastal storms can lead to physical disturbances of fish habitat and impacts on species richness, biomass, and density, which in turn impact socioeconomic aspects of marine resourcedependent communities (Sainsbury et al. 2018;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). Current scholarship focuses on the vulnerability of capture fisheries to climate change, but only a few studies have directly considered impacts due to storms (Johnson and Welch 2009;Chang et al. 2013;Sainsbury et al. 2018;Jara et al. 2020;Macusi et al. 2020;Turner, McConney, and Monnereau 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021), mostly because large uncertainties remain regarding the science around changes in storminess (Turner, McConney, and Monnereau 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). Coastal storms have adverse effects on fishing efforts, navigation, access to markets, loss or damage of fishing infrastructure, risks that fishers encounter at sea, and fishers' livelihoods (Sainsbury et al. 2018;Macusi et al. 2020;Heck, Beck, and Reguero 2021). ...
... This discrepancy may be a result of changes in genetic technologies resulting in differing resolutions between genetic markers such as single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and microsatellites (e.g., [24]). Furthermore, habitat diversity may have an influence, for example, due to factors such as habitat complexity that may affect vulnerability of being caught by fishing gear (i.e., catchability; [25,26]), species metapopulation structure (which determines patterns of dispersal among populations), and/or whether a species' range encompasses protected areas. Moreover, life history and behavioural traits can affect catchability and consequently loss of genetic diversity [27]. ...
... It is also important to note the evolutionary history of a population, and how different species differ in their vulnerability to fisheries stress based on their evolved set of life history traits [28]. Finally, overfishing is not the only stressor evident in the aquatic environment, with further anthropogenic effects such as climate change and habitat loss likely contributing to exacerbating the loss of genetic diversity [25]. ...
Overfishing drives population decline, which in turn drives loss of genetic diversity. Many studies provide evidence of declines in genetic diversity; however, controversy exists within the literature, as some studies show evidence of no change in genetic diversity despite decades of overharvesting. The apparent discrepancy in the literature should therefore be examined to understand what biological and ecological processes are driving the differences in results. Here, we assess how different factors contribute to fisheries-induced susceptibility to declines in genetic diversity by first focusing on the different roles of genetic markers. Second, we assess how habitat type and conditions contribute to loss of genetic diversity. Third, we assess how life history and physiology affects catchability and loss of genetic diversity. Finally, we discuss how coinciding abiotic and biotic factors influence the intensity of genetic loss. We find a multitude of these factors could be interacting to influence how results are perceived and how intense the loss of genetic diversity can be. Future studies should carefully consider the methodology of genetic analysis used, as well as considerations of life history and ecology of the target species.
... The second domain is ecological recovery potential (adaptive capacity). According to Johnson andWelch (2009) andChin et al. (2010), species or ecological systems with higher recovery potential can adapt to changes in variability and extremes of climate, take advantage of new opportunities, and/or cope with the consequences of change. Despite the distinct definitions of ecological sensitivity and recovery potential articulated by previous studies, we noted the two domains shared several similar indicators in practice (Figure 5a,b). ...
... The second domain is ecological recovery potential (adaptive capacity). According to Johnson andWelch (2009) andChin et al. (2010), species or ecological systems with higher recovery potential can adapt to changes in variability and extremes of climate, take advantage of new opportunities, and/or cope with the consequences of change. Despite the distinct definitions of ecological sensitivity and recovery potential articulated by previous studies, we noted the two domains shared several similar indicators in practice (Figure 5a,b). ...
Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social-ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socio-economic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalogue (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.
... Fish resources are one of the principal provisioning services provided by the oceans. The marine fisheries sector provides a substantial part of the global protein demand to the human population and job opportunities to meet livelihood requirements for millions (Johnson and Welch 2009). Globally, almost 260 ± 6 million people are engaged in the marine fisheries sector excluding an approximate count of another 22 ± 0.5 million people engaged in the small-scale fishing sector (Teh and Sumaila 2013). ...
All the oceans of planet Earth are inter-connected and comprise one huge water body. Due to wind-driven forces and thermohaline circulation, all the water molecules get circulated to every nook and corner of this giant water body. However, based on several physical and chemical properties, as well as geomorphological features, marine water bodies can be classified into several smaller dimensions.
... The climate change "Driver" provides various "Pressures" to the marine environment such as rising sea surface temperature (SST), ocean acidification, sea level rise, intensified storms and altered ocean circulation ultimately leading to both direct and indirect consequences in fisheries (Johnson and Welch, 2009). Recently Dalpadado et al., (2021) showed that the Indian Ocean is undergoing remarkable change as a significant expansion of the Indian Ocean Warm Pool (IOWP), which is characterized by SST values exceeding 28 °C. ...
A Social-Ecological System (SES) is formed when humans interact with their environment. Thus, an SES is an ecological system intricately linked with and affected by one or more social systems. Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) can be considered as vibrant SESs in which human societies and other organisms interact with the physical environments. Particularly human-fish interactions could also be considered as an SES and decisions for tuna fisheries management are mainly borne after the analysis based on fish and fisheries data that hardly addressed information on SES. Therefore, the present analysis was conducted for Sri Lankan tuna fisheries using the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) framework which was developed and used for the adaptive management of various SESs. "Driving forces" such as high dependency for fish, economies of the stakeholders, climate change, urbanization and industrialization through the "pressures"; increased fishing effort, overexploitation, use of destructive gears, Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated fishing practices, changing oceanographic conditions to "state" of, depleted fish stocks and low fish production deviation of fish distribution and fishing grounds, and more warm pools and 'impacts' on declining catch, loss of early life stages, marine environment degradation and eventually leading to 'responses' of fisheries and environmental laws and regulations as well as novel technological applications. This showed that the important steps in the process where catch data analysis, could not support alone to support the system. Therefore, a comprehensive analysis using DPSIR is recommended to find out the facts for fisheries management both in terms of regional and national scales.
... Marine fisheries provide an essential supply of food, minerals and other micronutrient resources (Johnson and Welch 2009;Rani 2012). In India, about 18% of fisher folks are professionally dependent on the marine fisheries sector for their daily livelihood (Bhattacharya et al. 2020). ...
Marine fishes are one of the important factors in stabilizing the local aquatic ecosystem and regulating the nutritional socio-economy of local fisher folks. The recent increases in anthropogenic activity, pollution and overfishing have led to the decline of marine fish species richness and their local aquatic habitats. In this study we sought to determine the interrelationship between water quality, anthropogenic activity, and fish landing stations through a 31 km stretch of the East Midnapore coast in West Bengal, India which is known for its tourist destinations. The study was conducted monthly on different trawler fish landing sites from Dec 2018 to Dec 2021. During this period, we took fish samples and identified them. We obtained water quality data regarding Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Concentration of Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a), Turbidity, and Dissolved Oxygen (DO) in order to identify further correlation between the water quality analysis and species diversity. 154 numbers of commercially important marine fish species were documented. As per the IUCN database, 13% of the total fish species fall under the red list category and 16% of the species reveal a decreasing population trend. The availability of those red-listed fish throughout the season has been shown in the matrix plot to detect their gradual decrease in sighting. After analyzing the water quality data, we found out that DO, SST, Turbidity, and Chl-a correlate with the species richness on some sites and the water parameters are also differs during the seasons. Both fish species richness and water quality have been affected on those fish landing sites which have been subject to heavy anthropogenic loads.
... The vulnerability of a species is a function of its exposure to relevant changes in the environment, its biological sensitivity to particular environmental conditions (e.g., the species' thermal tolerance ranges), and its adaptive capacity to accommodate the environmental change (Williams et al., 2008;Johnson and Welch, 2010;Foden et al., 2013;Mamauag et al., 2013;Pacifici et al., 2015;Stortini et al., 2015;Hare et al., 2016;Wheatley et al., 2017). Species that are both highly sensitive to an environmental factor and exposed to significant changes in that factor score as more vulnerable to climate change effects. ...
Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.
Climate change and climate variability are affecting marine mammal species and these impacts are projected to continue in the coming decades. Vulnerability assessments provide a framework for evaluating climate impacts over a broad range of species using currently available information. We conducted a trait-based climate vulnerability assessment using expert elicitation for 108 marine mammal stocks and stock groups in the western North Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and Caribbean Sea. Our approach combined the exposure (pro-jected change in environmental conditions) and sensitivity (ability to tolerate and adapt to changing conditions) of marine mammal stocks to estimate vulnerability to climate change, and categorize stocks with a vulnerability index. The climate vulnerability score was very high for 44% (n = 47) of these stocks, high for 29% (n = 31), moderate for 20% (n = 22), and low for 7% (n = 8). The majority of stocks (n = 78; 72%) scored very high exposure, whereas 24% (n = 26) scored high, and 4% (n = 4) scored moderate. The sensitivity score was very high for 33% (n = 36) of these stocks, high for 18% (n = 19), moderate for 34% (n = 37), and low for 15% (n = 16). Vulnerability results were summarized for stocks in five taxonomic groups: pinnipeds (n = 4; 25% high, 75% moderate), mysticetes (n = 7; 29% very high, 57% high, 14% moderate), ziphiids (n = 8; 13% very high, 50% high, 38% moderate), delphinids (n = 84; 52% very high, 23% high, 15% moderate, 10% low), and other odontocetes (n = 5; 60% high, 40% moderate). Factors including temperature, ocean pH, and dissolved oxygen were the primary drivers of high climate exposure, with effects mediated through prey and habitat parameters. We quantified sources of uncertainty by bootstrapping vulnerability scores, conducting leave-one-out analyses of individual attributes and individual scorers, and through scoring data quality for each attribute. These results provide information for researchers, managers, and the public on marine mammal responses to climate change to enhance the development of more effective marine mammal management, restoration, and conservation activities that address current and future environmental variation and biological responses due to climate change.
The Arafura and Timor Seas region is shared by Indonesia, Timor Leste, Australia, and Papua New Guinea (PNG), and is at the intersection of the Pacific and Indian oceans. High coastal population densities, degraded habitats, overexploited fisheries, low profile coasts, shallow continental shelves and macro-tidal conditions mean that coastal and marine environments in the region are currently facing multiple pressures. Climate change is expected to exacerbate these pressures and have profound effects on the status and distribution of coastal and marine habitats, the fish and invertebrates they support and, therefore, dependent communities and industries. Downscaled climate change projections for 2041–2070 for air and sea temperature, ocean chemistry and rainfall were modelled to provide spatially relevant regional data for a structured semi-quantitative vulnerability assessment. Results of the assessment were spatially variable and identified shallow coral reefs as highly vulnerable, particularly in the Timor-Leste and Indonesia-Arafura sub-regions. Seagrass meadows were most vulnerable in the Gulf of Carpentaria, Indonesia-Arafura, and Timor-Leste sub-regions. Mangrove habitats were most vulnerable in Timor-Leste and Western PNG sub-regions. Drivers of vulnerability include poor habitat condition, non-climate pressures, low connectivity, and limited formal management. Marine species vulnerability was also spatially variable, with highly vulnerable and priority species identified for each sub-region, including finfish and marine invertebrates. A key driver of species vulnerability was their stock status, with many species in Timor-Leste, Western PNG and Indonesia, and several in northern Australia, overfished or potentially overfished. Limited management in some sub-regions, as well as non-climate pressures such as habitat decline, poor water quality and illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing were also key drivers. Species of conservation interest (dugong and marine turtles) were also highly vulnerable to climate change, driven by their threatened status and the fact that they are low productivity species that take years to recover from impacts. Priority species and habitats for local action were identified and current pressures that undermine condition and/or resilience, with strategic recommendations aimed at minimising climate change vulnerability.
The potential effects of global climate change on marine protected areas do not appear to have been addressed in the literature. This paper examines the literature on protected areas, conservation biology, marine ecology, oceanography, and climate change, and reviews some of the relevant differences between marine and terrestrial environments. Frameworks and classifications systems used in protected area design are discussed. Finally, a framework that summarizes some of the important oceanographic processes and their links to the food chain are reviewed. Species abundance and distribution are expected to change as a result of global climate change, potentially compromising the efficacy of marine protected areas as biodiversity conservation tools. This review suggests the need for further interdisciplinary research and the use of linked models; an increase in marine protected areas for biodiversity conservation and as research sites for teasing apart fishing effects from climate effects; a temporally responsive approach to siting new marine protected areas, shifting their locations if necessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integrated management approaches to address the competing uses of the oceans and boundary-less threats such as global climate change and pollution.
As we approach the end of the twentieth century, public and scientific attention is focusing increasingly on the detection and assessment of changes in our environment. This unique volume addresses the potential implications of global warming for fisheries and the societies which depend on them. Using a 'forecasting by analogy' approach, which draws upon experiences from the recent past in coping with regional fluctuations in the abundance or availability of living marine resources, it is shown how we might be able to assess our ability to respond to the consequences of future environmental changes induced by a potential global warming. The book takes the form of a series of integrated case studies from around the globe, which are presented by an interdisciplinary group of leading researchers. This important and thought-provoking volume will be of interest to a wide range of scientists working in the fields of biology, marine and environmental science, climatology, economics and anthropology, as well as resource managers and policy makers concerned with the health and future of living marine resources.
Physical factors, including currents, tides, rainfall and runoff, affect larval dispersal from the offshore spawning grounds to the nursery grounds. They also affect immigration and emigration of postlarvae and juveniles to and from the nursery grounds. Biotic factors such as mangrove extent and seagrass extent, species composition and density will affect the carrying capacity of these nursery grounds, the population size of subsequent stages and hence the ultimate catches. If the greenhouse effect leads to higher sea levels, higher rainfall and increased cyclone activity we would expect an increase in banana prawn Penaeus merguiensis catches and a decrease in tiger prawn P. esculentus and P. semisulcatus catches largely due to alterations in nursery grounds. -from Authors
Ocean surveys show that extremely sharp thermal boundaries have limited the distribution of sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) in the Pacific Ocean and adjacent seas over the past 40 years. These limits are expressed as a step function, with the temperature defining the position of the thermal limit varying between months in an annual cycle. The sharpness of the edge, the different temperatures that define the position of the edge in different months of the year, and the subtle variations in temperature with area or decade for a given month probably all occur because temperature-dependent metabolic rates exceed energy intake from feeding over large regions of otherwise acceptable habitat in the North Pacific. At current rates of greenhouse gas emissions, predicted temperature increases under a doubled CO2 climate are large enough to shift the position of the thermal limits into the Bering Sea by the middle of the next century. Such an increase would potentially exclude sockeye salmon from the entire Paci...
Investigates the history of this fishery, which is regarded as a classic example of an open-access fishery which has been allowed to expand beyond the point of maximum long-term economic benefit. Resources which in recent decades had been viewed as limitless have been threatened by fishing pressures and habitat destruction. The major part of the article provides background information on the historical development of the fishery, and then considers management actions, the possible impacts of global warming, and lessons for the future. -P.Hardiman
A North Carolina reef fish community was resurveyed with scuba gear to determine if changes occurred in community structure after 15 years of intense fishing. Generally, fishes important in the recreational and commercial fisheries were smaller, and large changes occurred in relative abundance and species composition. Indicative of a warming trend, total species composition of fishes had become more tropical, and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude off the North Carolina coast became common. Two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes were recorded. Observations of 28 species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate species were observed, and the most abundant temperate species decreased by a factor of 22. Mean monthly bottom water temperatures in winter were 1-6°C warmer during the recent study. An increase in fish-cleaning symbiosis was especially noticeable. The study site is among the most northern permanent reef fish communities in the United States. Warmer bottom water temperatures along the subtidal continental shelf off Beaufort, North Carolina since 1977, have resulted in a dramatic increase in the tropical reef faunal composition. (Total species composition of fish became more tropical, and a tropical sponge previously unrecorded at this latitude became prominent.) Divers recorded two new (to the area) families and 29 new species of tropical fishes. Observations of 28 other species of tropical reef fishes increased significantly. No new temperate fishes were observed, and the most abundant temperate fish decreased 22-fold. Fishery landings data also showed a shift toward a more tropical reef fish community. (Mean monthly winter bottom water temperatures were 1-6°C warmer during the recent study.) This reef fish community paper along with two other demersal fauna papers indicate that thermal conditions of the oceans in general are changing and that both temperate and tropical components of the faunal communities are concurrently shifting toward a more tropical composition of species.