Linos E, Spanos D, Rosner BA, Linos K, Hesketh T, Qu JD, Gao YT, Zheng W, Colditz GAEffects of reproductive and demographic changes on breast cancer incidence in China: a modeling analysis. J Natl Cancer Inst 100: 1352-1360

Department of Epidemiology, Harvard School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USA.
Journal of the National Cancer Institute (Impact Factor: 12.58). 10/2008; 100(19):1352-60. DOI: 10.1093/jnci/djn305
Source: PubMed


Breast cancer incidence is currently low in China. However, the distribution of reproductive and lifestyle risk factors for breast cancer among Chinese women is changing rapidly. We quantified the expected effect of changes in breast cancer risk factors on future rates of breast cancer in China.
We first validated and calibrated the Rosner-Colditz log-incidence breast cancer model in Chinese women who participated in the Shanghai Women's Health Study cohort (N = 74,942). We then applied the calibrated model to a representative sample of Chinese women who were aged 35-49 years in 2001 using data from the Chinese National Family Planning and Reproductive Health Survey (NFPRHS, N = 17,078) to predict the age-specific and cumulative breast cancer incidence among all Chinese women of this age group. We evaluated the relative impact of changes in modifiable risk factors, including alcohol intake, parity, postmenopausal hormone use, and adult weight gain, on cumulative incidence of breast cancer.
Breast cancer incidence in China is expected to increase substantially from current rates, estimated at 10-60 cases per 100,000 women, to more than 100 new cases per 100,000 women aged 55-69 years by 2021. We predicted 2.5 million cases of breast cancer by 2021 among Chinese women who were 35-49 years old in 2001. Modest reductions in hormone and alcohol use, and weight maintenance could prevent 270,000 of these cases.
China is on the cusp of a breast cancer epidemic. Although some risk factors associated with economic development are largely unavoidable, the substantial predicted increase in new cases of breast cancer calls for urgent incorporation of this disease in future health care infrastructure planning.

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    • "Although breast cancer incidence rates currently remain lower in developing countries of the Asia-Pacific compared to Australia or New Zealand, the rapid increases that are being experienced in places with large populations such as China and Japan will continue to shift the worldwide burden of this disease towards Asia80. Female breast cancer must therefore be afforded a higher priority for health spending in the region. "
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    ABSTRACT: Objective To provide an overview of the incidence and mortality of female breast cancer for countries in the Asia-Pacific region. Methods Statistical information about breast cancer was obtained from publicly available cancer registry and mortality databases (such as GLOBOCAN), and supplemented with data requested from individual cancer registries. Rates were directly age-standardised to the Segi World Standard population and trends were analysed using joinpoint models. Results Breast cancer was the most common type of cancer among females in the region, accounting for 18% of all cases in 2012, and was the fourth most common cause of cancer-related deaths (9%). Although incidence rates remain much higher in New Zealand and Australia, rapid rises in recent years were observed in several Asian countries. Large increases in breast cancer mortality rates also occurred in many areas, particularly Malaysia and Thailand, in contrast to stabilising trends in Hong Kong and Singapore, while decreases have been recorded in Australia and New Zealand. Mortality trends tended to be more favourable for women aged under 50 compared to those who were 50 years or older. Conclusion It is anticipated that incidence rates of breast cancer in developing countries throughout the Asia-Pacific region will continue to increase. Early detection and access to optimal treatment are the keys to reducing breast cancer-related mortality, but cultural and economic obstacles persist. Consequently, the challenge is to customise breast cancer control initiatives to the particular needs of each country to ensure the best possible outcomes.
    Full-text · Article · Jun 2014 · Cancer Biology and Medicine
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    • "Breast cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors in Chinese women. It's estimated that there will be more than 100 new cases per 100,000 women aged 55–69 years by 2021 [1]. Understanding the molecular mechanisms underlying the progression of breast cancer may provide ways for the development of novel antineoplastic therapies. "
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    ABSTRACT: Vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1 (VEGFR-1 or Flt-1), a tyrosine kinase receptor, is highly expressed in breast cancer tissues, but near absent in normal breast tissue. While VEGFR-1 expression is associated with poor prognosis of women with breast cancer, it is not clear whether it is involved in the aggressiveness of breast cancer. Thus, the present study examined whether VEGFR-1 activation is associated with the invasiveness of breast cancer. We reported that VEGFR-1 was detected in 60.6% of invasive breast carcinoma tissue sections. In addition, VEGFR-1 expression positively correlated with lymph node-positive tumor status, low expression level of membranous E-cadherin, and high expression levels of N-cadherin and Snail. We found that PlGF-mediated VEGFR-1 activation promoted migration and invasion in MCF-7 (luminal) cells and led to morphologic and molecular changes of epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). This was blocked by the down-regulation of VEGFR-1. Conversely, down-regulation of VEGFR-1 in MDA-MB-231 (post-EMT) cells resulted in morphologic and molecular changes similar to mesenchymal-epithelial transition (MET), and exogenous PlGF could not reverse these changes. Moreover, VEGFR-1 activation led to an increase in nuclear translocation of Snail. Finally, MDA-MB-231 cells expressing shRNA against VEGFR-1 significantly decreased the tumor growth and metastasis capacity in a xenograft model. Histological examination of VEGFR-1/shRNA-expressing tumor xenografts showed up-regulation of E-cadherin and down-regulation of N-cadherin and Snail. These findings suggest that VEGFR-1 may promote breast cancer progression and metastasis, and therapies that target VEGFR-1 may be beneficial in the treatment of breast cancer patients.
    Preview · Article · Jun 2013 · PLoS ONE
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    • "The study estimates that the agestandardized breast cancer incidence rate in China will be 85.3 per 100,000 women in year 2021; the increase in incidence and prevalence of breast cancer is not limited to major cities in China. It is pervasive throughout all of China and has been projected to continue to increase in the future [9]. Not only is the overall incidence rate for breast cancer rising in China, but also, another intriguing fact is that women in China are diagnosed with breast cancer at an earlier age than Caucasians. "
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    ABSTRACT: . Breast cancer is a major public health issue and the most commonly diagnosed cancer for women worldwide. Despite lower incidence rates than those living in Western countries, breast cancer incidence among Chinese women has increased dramatically in the past 20 years. Nevertheless, there is a paucity of studies reporting the attitudes toward and practices of breast cancer screening among Chinese women. Methods . This cross-sectional study examined the practices, knowledge, and attitudes toward breast cancer screening (BCS) on a convenience sample of 400 Chinese women. Results . Among study participants, 75% of the women never had a mammogram and the top three barriers reported were low priority, feeling OK, and lack of awareness/knowledge toward breast cancer screening. The results from the logistic regression model showed increased self-efficacy; having performed monthly self-exams, and having had clinical breast exams in the past two years were significant correlates while demographic variables were not correlated with screening behaviors. Conclusion . The findings provide a foundation to better understand beliefs and practices of Chinese women toward BCS and highlight the critical need for general public, health professionals, and the health care system to work collaboratively toward improving the quality of breast cancer care in this population.
    Full-text · Article · Dec 2012
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