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Abstract

The authors' research focuses on the mechanisms by which people segregate their general theories about their predictions (i.e., that they are usually unrealistic) from their specific expectations for an upcoming task. This chapter begins by documenting the ubiquity of optimistic predictions in everyday tasks. Topics discussed in this chapter include the following: a cognitive model of the planning fallacy, examining cognitive processes, the generality of the planning fallacy, motivation and the planning fallacy, and debiasing the planning fallacy. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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... One important assumption inherent in this prediction is that the presence of a boundary task affects behavior by altering the perceived length of the interval and not the perceived length of the target task to be performed. However, consumers are often poor at estimating how long a particular task will take (Buehler, Griffin, andRoss 1994, 2002), so it is possible they would predict that a task would take longer during a bounded interval. Thus, consumers may be less likely to take part in relatively extended tasks either because the interval feels shorter (as we suggest) or because they predict that a target task will take longer (or some combination of the two). ...
... One important assumption inherent in this prediction is that the presence of a boundary task affects behavior by altering the perceived length of the interval and not the perceived length of the target task to be performed. However, consumers are often poor at estimating how long a particular task will take (Buehler, Griffin, andRoss 1994, 2002), so it is possible they would predict that a task would take longer during a bounded interval. Thus, consumers may be less likely to take part in relatively extended tasks either because the interval feels shorter (as we suggest) or because they predict that a target task will take longer (or some combination of the two). ...
Article
Consumers often organize their time by scheduling various tasks, but also leave some time unaccounted for. The authors examine whether ending an interval of unaccounted time with an upcoming task systematically alters how this time is perceived and consumed. Eight studies conducted in both the lab and field show that bounded intervals of time (e.g., an hour before a scheduled meeting) feel prospectively shorter than unbounded intervals of time (e.g., an hour with nothing scheduled subsequently). Furthermore, consumers perform fewer tasks and are less likely to engage in relatively extended (though feasible) tasks during a bounded compared to an unbounded interval of time—even in the face of financial incentives. Finally, making a longer task easier to separate into subtasks attenuates this effect. © The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Journal of Consumer Research, Inc. All rights reserved.
... Tendency to underestimate task-completion times. (Buehler et al., 1994(Buehler et al., , 2002) (Kahneman & Tversky, 1977) (Madhavan et al., 2016) ...
Technical Report
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Background: To begin our research into the effects of human decision-making bias in cyber security, we explored an extensive list of decision-making biases, focusing on those with rigorous scientific research and robust empirical findings. From this literature review, a list was created of 87 biases along with definitions, study examples, and references for major and related works. These were presented to the cyber security professionals who related cyber examples. These examples are being compiled into a document that will be submitted for peer-review. While the list presented here is not exhaustive, we believe the survey of relevant biases detailed in the spreadsheet can provide utility to the community.
... The optimism bias (Sharot 2011) refers to the widely held belief that the future will be better than it may actually be. For example, people tend to make unrealistically optimistic estimates of the time it will take them to complete tasks (the planning fallacy; Buehler et al. 2002). More seriously, people typically overestimate how likely they are to remain healthy and how long they will live, while underestimating how likely they are to get a divorce (Sharot et al. 2007;Sharot 2011). ...
Article
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Although research has investigated both moral psychology and evolutionary motivations behind reproduction, psychological issues at the intersection of these two domains remain relatively unexplored. In this paper, we describe anti-natalism, the ethical position that it is immoral to reproduce (e.g., Benatar 2006), and make a first outline of its potential as an area of psychological research. We note three critical gaps in knowledge: (1) extent of endorsement, (2) predictors or causes of this view, and (3) behavioral consequences of its endorsement. Although this position may seem obscure, we point to its practical relevance in understanding decisions to remain childless and its potential to contribute to a theoretical understanding of the moral processes that shape these decisions.
... Los estudios sobre comportamiento humano han mostrado que las personas tien- den a subestimar el coste, en términos de tiempo y esfuerzo, empleado en perseguir ciertos objetivos en el futuro (Buehler et al., 1994(Buehler et al., , 2002). En este sentido, Fishbach y Dhar (2005) advirtieron la existencia de una tendencia a abandonar un objeti- vo cuando una persona tiene una expectativa futura positiva. ...
Article
Resumen El presente análisis exploratorio utilizando un diseño experimental toma como referencia el modelo sobre publicidad anticipada propuesto por Dahlen et al. (2011). El estudio trata de medir, en un contexto intercultural, el efecto potencial de la publicidad de productos futuros sobre el procesamiento y la evaluación del anuncio, la actitud del consumidor hacia la marca, y el modo en que esta influencia puede determinar la intención de compra de los productos no existentes en el mercado. A fin de medir dichos efectos, destacando el efecto moderador potencial de la cultura del país, se utilizaron dos muestras de convenien-cia: una de estudiantes griegos, y otra de estudiantes españoles, quienes respondieron a dos cuestionarios en relación a una campaña publicitaria para un coche, con anterioridad y posterioridad al lanzamiento del producto. Además, se utilizaron dos muestras adicionales para ambos países para detectar el efecto potencial de la disponibilidad del producto sobre la anticipación y evaluación del consumidor. Los resultados reflejan que la publicidad de productos futuros genera más incertidumbre que la de los productos actuales, y que los consumidores muestran una mayor anticipación y predisposición hacia el producto futuro que hacia el actual. Palabras clave: publicidad anticipada, producto futuro, producto actual, respuesta cogni-tiva, actitud hacia la marca, intercultural, experimentación. Códigos JEL: M37.
Chapter
An examination of mental frameworks which are used to process information and mental obstacles preventing the more widespread adaptation of the Wealth Creation Approach to poverty reduction is presented. The chapter starts out examining mental models as well as biases and heuristics from a psychological or sociological standpoint. Next, the influences of religious, philosophical, and political values which shape the debates on poverty reduction and international trade are examined. The chapter rounds off with an examination of effects various cultural influences may have on our worldviews and values, often subconsciously, as related to approaches toward reducing poverty and creating wealth.
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I examine how and why current-period performance shapes investors' evaluations of future-oriented disclosures. Three experiments provide evidence that a firm's current-period performance shapes investors' beliefs about the appropriateness of managerial optimism, which, in turn, affects investors' evaluation of firms that focus on either challenges or opportunities in future-oriented disclosures. When a firm is performing poorly, investors believe that managers can best achieve success by being optimistic about the future and, therefore, invest more when the firm focuses on opportunities rather than challenges in future-oriented disclosures. When a firm is performing well, on the other hand, investors believe that managers can best achieve success by being realistic about the future and, therefore, invest more when the firm focuses on challenges rather than opportunities.
Thesis
This thesis contributes to the growing economic literature on noncognitive skills that are critical for life success, specially for academic success. It comprises four essays based on behavioral and experimental economics approaches, with two main objectives. The first objective is to study two noncognitive skills, namely self-confidence and creativity. We aim at understanding the determinants of self-confidence, and the impact of creative potential on economic outcomes. The second objective is to study how school systems impact educational decisions, educational outcomes and intergenerational mobility, where noncognitive skills may play an important role, specially self-confidence and motivation. We observe an important impact of the noncognitive abilities on behavior and economic results, especially for the educational achievements. Taken all our evidences together, it seems fundamental that schools worry about the development of these noncognitive abilities - and not only of the cognitive abilities. Helping students to have better estimates of self-confidence, favoring the development of creative potential, and stimulating motivation and effort should be part of the education that pupils receive in schools ; promoting then better decisions, better outcomes and a more equitable society.
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We integrate research on team functioning with that of self-awareness to advance the notion of self-awareness in teams as an important concept to consider when diagnosing team effectiveness. We argue that teams composed of individuals with greater levels of self-awareness will exhibit more effective team-level functioning and performance. This proposition was explored by examining the effects of self-other agreement with regard to individual-level contributions of teamwork behavior on three team-level functional outcomes (team coordination, conflict, cohesion) and team performance. Results from 515 teams (2,658 individuals) completing a high-fidelity team-based business simulation supported the effects of aggregate levels of self-awareness on team-level functioning and performance. Moreover, these effects were influential above and beyond individual contributions themselves, highlighting the unique value of team members’ self-awareness for understanding team functioning. Of the three functional outcomes, only team conflict mediated the effects of self-awareness in teams on subsequent team-level performance. Finally, results revealed that overrating among team members was a particularly problematic form of the lack of self-awareness in teams.
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