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Increasing Voting Behavior by Asking People If They Expect to Vote

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Abstract

In two studies, students contacted by telephone were asked to predict whether they would perform a particular behavior (registering to vote or voting, respectively) in the next few days. The proportion who predicted that they would do these socially desirable behaviors exceeded the proportion of control subjects who performed the behavior without first being asked to predict whether they would. Further, in the voting study these errors of overprediction were self-erasing in the sense described by S. J. Sherman ( Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 1980, 39). That is, subjects who were asked to predict whether they would vote—all of whom predicted that they would—actually did vote with substantially greater probability than did the no-prediction control subjects. (Actual voting was verified by consulting official voter rolls.) Asking people to predict whether they will perform a socially desirable action appears to increase their probability of performing the action. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)

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... La notion « d'effet question-comportement » n'est apparue qu'en 2006 (Sprott et al., 2006). Avant cette date, cet effet était appelé « effet de simple-mesure » dans les études de marketing (e.g., Morwitz, Johnson, & Schmittlein, 1993), et « effet d'auto-prophétie » dans les études en psychologie sociale et psychologie de la santé (e.g., Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987). Plus qu'une différence d'appellation, cette distinction reposait sur des aspects théoriques et méthodologiques (pour une revue de littérature, voir Dholakia, 2010). ...
... L'effet de simplemesure désignait à l'origine l'effet observé d'augmentation de ventes de produits suite à des questions d'intention d'achat (Morwitz et al., 1993). L'effet d'auto-prophétie s'appliquait à des situations où des individus devant prédire leur comportement allaient prédire une conduite normative qu'ils tiendraient ensuite (Greenwald et al., 1987). En regroupant les deux phénomènes sous une même notion « d'effet questioncomportement », les chercheurs avaient pour objectif de mutualiser les connaissances et les méthodologies de chaque discipline pour mieux saisir cet effet. ...
... C'est également dans cette volonté de compréhension du phénomène dans son ensemble, que dans cette thèse, nous adoptons la dénomination claire et agnostique « effet question-comportement » proposée par Sprott et collaborateurs (2006). À travers les différentes investigations, ces effets ont été observés sur le simple choix d'une barre chocolatée (e.g., Morwitz & Fitzsimons, 2004), sur la consommation de produits sains (Wood, Conner, Sandberg, Godin, & Sheeran, 2014), sur l'achat d'ordinateurs et de voitures (Morwitz et al., 1993), sur le vote aux élections présidentielles (e.g., Greenwald et al., 1987), sur le don du sang (e.g., Godin, Sheeran, Conner, & Germain, 2008) ou encore sur l'adoption de comportements pro-environnementaux (e.g., Spangenberg, Sprott, Grohmann, & Smith, 2003 Plusieurs explications ont été proposées dans la littérature afin de comprendre le fonctionnement de l'effet question-comportement. Certains chercheurs l'expliquent par un phénomène de comparaison de l'individu aux normes associées au comportement, qui auraient été rendues saillantes par les questions (e.g., Spangenberg et al., 2003). ...
Thesis
Questionner une personne sur un comportement rend ce dernier plus susceptible d’être réalisé. Trois types d’explications pour cet effet question-comportement ont été étudiées au cours de neuf expériences : une explication normative, une explication attitudinale et une explication motivationnelle. Une première série de quatre études a testé l’explication normative. Seule une étude a présenté des résultats laissant penser que questionner l’individu sur un comportement normatif le conduit à réaliser ce comportement afin de ne pas ressentir de dissonance cognitive. Trois autres expériences ont montré que le comportement cible est plus accessible chez l’individu questionné et que cette accessibilité médie la relation entre les questions et le comportement. De plus, l’attitude associée est déterminante dans l’adoption du comportement. Enfin, les deux dernières études expérimentales ont testé l’explication motivationnelle sans parvenir à collecter des résultats nets en sa faveur. Selon cette dernière explication, répondre à des questions sur un comportement active le but de réaliser ce comportement, ce qui engendre d’autres processus cognitifs (i.e., motivation implicite, accessibilité des informations liées au but). Les résultats sont synthétisés à l’aide de méta-analyses et discutés afin de mieux comprendre le fonctionnement de ce phénomène.
... In psychology, the "commitment consistency" theory posits that people will go to great lengths to stay true to a commitment they have made in order to be-or appear to be-consistent (Greenwald et al. 1987;Cialdini 1993). This effect is strongest for commitments made in front of others (Cialdini 1993). ...
... Meyerowitz & Chaiken (1987) andBlock & Keller (1995).5 For example,Greenwald et al. (1987) find that a spoken commitment to vote has a positive effect on voting, butSmith et al. (2003) do not. Closer to our setting, find no effect of adolescent respondents in Kenya committing to taking a deworming drug andDupas (2009) finds no effect of a verbal commitment on subsequent purchases of mosquito nets. ...
... Such a misperception would lead to otherwise inaccurate initial predictions, projecting overly pro-social future behavior, which, through the Bselferasing nature of errors of prediction,^would then be fulfilled (Sherman 1980, p. 211). Experiments have demonstrated such question-behavior effects on pro-social actions such as blood donations (Godin et al. 2014;Godin et al. 2008), volunteering for charities (Sherman 1980;Spangenberg et al. 2003), participation in elections (Greenwald et al. 1987), recycling (Sprott et al. 1999), and purchasing environmentally-friendly products (Bodur et al. 2015). ...
... Participants were randomly assigned to one of six groups. The initial statements or questions for each group (after which all questions were identical) were as follows, 1. Causes reference: BCharity includes organizations supporting causes such as environmental conservation, cancer research, animal welfare, international relief for the poor and needy, and youth activitiesN ote: This serves as a control group for experimental groups 2 and 3, following, e.g., Greenwald et al. (1987) and Spangenberg (1997) by providing otherwise identical information related to the behavior but with no prediction or other questions. 2. Causes importance ratings: BOn a scale from 0=Absolutely No Importance to 100 = Absolutely The Greatest Importance; please rate the importance of the work of charities in the following areas,^followed by five 0-100 sliding scales accompanying each cause label of environmental conservation, cancer research, animal welfare, international relief to the poor and needy, and youth activities. ...
Article
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In the question-behavior effect (QBE), making a prediction about one’s behavior moves the behavior in the direction of the prediction. The current experiments explore the use of preliminary questions to increase the pro-social nature of such behavior predictions in both charitable giving and charitable bequests. Initially requesting importance ratings of charitable causes – as compared with simply referencing the charitable causes – significantly increased subsequent donation and bequest intentions to related charities. Requesting additional importance ratings for specific projects of named charities significantly increased subsequent cause importance ratings and donation and bequest intentions for both named and similar unnamed charities. Preliminary importance rating questions were also more effective than otherwise similar preliminary donation intention questions, potentially because of the non-monetary nature and greater malleability of importance ratings. Rather than merely revealing a fixed, underlying donative intent, these results suggest that the elicitation process can alter underlying donation intentions.
... Public behaviour is a physical expression of statements and public commitments. Validated effects of public commitments include voters' actual balloting behaviour (Greenwald et al., 1987), and customers' actual purchases of recommended items (Garnefeld et al., 2013). This array of public behaviour in varying contexts justifies our selection of CP in examining individuals' public behaviour, i.e., online gaming behaviour. ...
... Following Guide and Ketokivi's (2015) suggestions to check the possibility of reverse causality, we conducted the endogeneity test, i.e., reversing the impact of gaming habits on perceived price fairness and motivation to attain gaming goals, to turn gaming habits from an exogenous construct to an endogenous construct. Such a reversal significantly deteriorated the model fit, i.e., Δχ 2 = 2,002.27-1,956.42 ...
Article
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Online games are popular electronic commerce applications that have a business model of selling gaming items to gamers. Such a business model helps gamers attain gaming goals while cultivating their gaming habits. Gaming habits can lead gamers to play games automatically, indicating their impact on gamers. However, little is known about how gaming habits affect gamers’ perceptions of the prices of the gaming items, goal-attaining motivation, and online gamer loyalty. Grounded in the consistency principle, we construct a framework to explain how gaming habits impact motivation to attain gaming goals, perceived price fairness, and online gamer loyalty. We collected 5,144 responses from online gamers and used structural equation modelling to test the research model. We found that gaming habits are positively related to motivation to attain gaming goals and perceived price fairness, which are further positively related to online gamer loyalty. Ours is the first study using the perspective of the consistency principle to examine the mechanism underlying the impact of gaming habits on online gamer loyalty. Our findings provide novel insights for electronic commerce managers that they could focus on enhancing perceived price fairness and motivation to attain gaming goals, thus establishing a loyal user base. Such findings could also apply to interactive hedonic systems, indicating their potential academic impact.
... For instance, in Freedman and Fraser's (1966) seminal study, participants who initially agreed to put a small, tasteful "Be a Safe Driver" sign in their front window were also more likely to, ultimately, agree to put a large and unsightly "Drive Carefully" sign in their front yards. These results were replicated in many contexts, such as voting (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987), charitable contributions (Greenwald et al., 1987), and energy conservation (Pallak, Cook, & Sullivan, 1980). In fact, a recent meta-analysis of commitment and behavior change in the context of environmental science has demonstrated that interventions based on the commitment principle were able to elicit a substantial change (r = .27-.31) in the short and long term (Lokhorst, Werner, Staats, van Dijk, & Gale, 2013). ...
... For instance, in Freedman and Fraser's (1966) seminal study, participants who initially agreed to put a small, tasteful "Be a Safe Driver" sign in their front window were also more likely to, ultimately, agree to put a large and unsightly "Drive Carefully" sign in their front yards. These results were replicated in many contexts, such as voting (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987), charitable contributions (Greenwald et al., 1987), and energy conservation (Pallak, Cook, & Sullivan, 1980). In fact, a recent meta-analysis of commitment and behavior change in the context of environmental science has demonstrated that interventions based on the commitment principle were able to elicit a substantial change (r = .27-.31) in the short and long term (Lokhorst, Werner, Staats, van Dijk, & Gale, 2013). ...
Article
The literature suggests that in‐class oral participation is associated with various positive outcomes that directly contribute to academic success. The goal of the current study was to investigate the role played by psychological barriers to oral participation, focusing on commitment and self‐affirmation as methods to bypass barriers to participation. The results of the semester‐long experiment (N = 157) demonstrate that committed individuals who had an opportunity to self‐affirm outperformed both committed students and affirmed students, as well as members of the control group. Interestingly, the interplay between self‐affirmation and commitment increased oral participation, irrespective of whether students had high or low self‐esteem and high or low self‐efficacy. The current results offer some room for cautious optimism, as they highlight the importance of self‐affirmation and commitment as a route to academic success.
... In a more recent and related area of investigation, a number of independent research teams have also found important behavioral effects of "mere measurement" (e.g., Godin, Sheeran, Conner, & Germain, 2008;Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987;Morwitz, Johnson, & Schmittlein, 1993;Sandberg & Conner, 2009;Sherman, 1980). For example, Sherman (1980) found that asking people to predict their future behavior yielded behavior that was consistent with those predictions and different from that of participants who were not asked to make predictions. ...
... For example, Sherman (1980) found that asking people to predict their future behavior yielded behavior that was consistent with those predictions and different from that of participants who were not asked to make predictions. Greenwald et al. (1987) found that asking people whether they intend to vote led to an increased likelihood of voting, which was mediated by behavioral intentions to vote. Morwitz et al. (1993), who coined the term mere-measurement effect, found that measuring an individual's purchase intentions changed subsequent purchase behavior (see also Morwitz & Fitzsimons, 2004). ...
Article
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Three experiments examined effects of measuring self-reported emotional intensity on subsequent self-reported emotional intensity. Across 3 experiments, we induced sadness, envy, and happiness and manipulated the number of emotional intensity measurements. In all experiments, repeated measurement led to weaker intensity of negative emotions than did a single measurement. Although the intensity of happiness was unaffected by repeated measurement, data suggest that measurements interfered with ongoing emotional experience. We suggest that our findings have methodological, conceptual, and practical implications, but perhaps foremost is the warning that social scientists may have greater cause for caution regarding repeated self-report measures than previously thought.
... People are more likely to follow through with their expressed intentions when that intention was framed as a commitment [24][25][26]. Public commitments have been shown to increase recycling [27][28][29], heighten participation in hotel towel reuse programs [30], boost monetary contributions to organizations serving the disabled [31], enhance the likelihood of voting in an upcoming election [32], reduce the prescription of inappropriate antibiotics [19], and lead dieters to lose more weight [33]. Public commitment is more effective than education as a tool to prompt greater personal motivation to perform a behavior [24,32,34]. ...
... Public commitments have been shown to increase recycling [27][28][29], heighten participation in hotel towel reuse programs [30], boost monetary contributions to organizations serving the disabled [31], enhance the likelihood of voting in an upcoming election [32], reduce the prescription of inappropriate antibiotics [19], and lead dieters to lose more weight [33]. Public commitment is more effective than education as a tool to prompt greater personal motivation to perform a behavior [24,32,34]. Notably, public commitments are not forced by health providers nor formally negotiated agreements with another party but rather voluntary statements that strengthen dedication to an action and which later are identified with one's values [35]. ...
Article
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Background: Over 6 million Americans have heart failure, and 1 in 8 deaths included heart failure as a contributing cause in 2016. Lifestyle changes and adherence to diet and exercise regimens are important in limiting disease progression. Health coaching and public commitment are two interactive communication strategies that may improve self-management of heart failure. Objective: This study aimed to conduct patient focus groups to gain insight into how best to implement health coaching and public commitment strategies within the heart failure population. Methods: Focus groups were conducted in two locations. We studied 2 patients in Oakland, California, and 5 patients in Los Angeles, California. Patients were referred by local cardiologists and had to have a diagnosis of chronic heart failure. We used a semistructured interview tool to explore several patient-centered themes including medication adherence, exercise habits, dietary habits, goals, accountability, and rewards. We coded focus group data using the a priori coding criteria for these domains. Results: Medication adherence barriers included regimen complexity, forgetfulness, and difficulty coping with side effects. Participants reported that they receive little instruction from care providers on appropriate exercise and dietary habits. They also reported personal and social obstacles to achieving these objectives. Participants were in favor of structured goal setting, use of online social networks, and financial rewards as a means of promoting health lifestyles. Peers were viewed as better motivating agents than family members. Conclusions: An active communication framework involving dissemination of diet- and exercise-related health information, structured goal setting, peer accountability, and financial rewards appears promising in the management of heart failure.
... Originally referred to by Sherman (1980) as 'self-erasing errors of prediction' , the term self-prophecy (coined by Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987) describes the phenomenon that merely asking people to predict whether they are willing to perform a certain behaviour increases their probability of acting in line with their prediction. In a series of experiments, it was shown that previous self-assessments increase socially desirable behaviours, such as charity work (Sherman, 1980), voter registration and turnout (Greenwald et al., 1987) or health club visits (Spangenberg, 1997), whereas socially undesirable actions decrease (Spangenberg & Obermiller, 1996). ...
... Originally referred to by Sherman (1980) as 'self-erasing errors of prediction' , the term self-prophecy (coined by Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987) describes the phenomenon that merely asking people to predict whether they are willing to perform a certain behaviour increases their probability of acting in line with their prediction. In a series of experiments, it was shown that previous self-assessments increase socially desirable behaviours, such as charity work (Sherman, 1980), voter registration and turnout (Greenwald et al., 1987) or health club visits (Spangenberg, 1997), whereas socially undesirable actions decrease (Spangenberg & Obermiller, 1996). The authors assume that due to the socially normative nature of the behaviours, respondents overestimate their adherence to perceived societal rules. ...
Article
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Though panel data are increasingly used in the social sciences, the question whether repeatedly participating in a panel survey affects respondents’ attitudes and (response) behaviour is still largely unsolved. Drawing on a model of associative networks that is extended by assumptions on survey satisficing, we present a theoretical framework that emphasizes the role of strength-related attributes of attitudes (accessibility, internal consistency, extremity) and motivation in respondents’ information processing. In particular, we argue that – depending on respondents’ predispositions – occupation with survey questions enhances attitude strength, which results in increasing attitude stability and influence on thoughts and behaviours. Against this background, we bring together hitherto unconnected results from previous research and thus contribute to a more thorough understanding of both the mechanisms and the multifaceted outcomes of panel conditioning.
... ). Besides, priming the authors at the intent-to-submit with the reproducibility checklist may create a so-called "mere-measurement effect" known in behavioural economy (see [6,7,8]) leading to more reproducible manuscripts. Feedback of the authors regarding the reproducibility checklist is essential. ...
... Most participants were PhD students and the ethnicities were fairly diverse. To facilitate the collaboration among the participants, a Discord server was set up that allowed video conferencing, screen sharing, and text 6 The resources are available online at https://airtable. com/shrfRGA9FrHArvkNT. ...
Preprint
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The MICCAI conference has encountered tremendous growth over the last years in terms of the size of the community, as well as the number of contributions and their technical success. With this growth, however, come new challenges for the community. Methods are more difficult to reproduce and the ever-increasing number of paper submissions to the MICCAI conference poses new questions regarding the selection process and the diversity of topics. To exchange, discuss, and find novel and creative solutions to these challenges, a new format of a hackathon was initiated as a satellite event at the MICCAI 2020 conference: The MICCAI Hackathon. The first edition of the MICCAI Hackathon covered the topics reproducibility, diversity, and selection of MICCAI papers. In the manner of a small think-tank, participants collaborated to find solutions to these challenges. In this report, we summarize the insights from the MICCAI Hackathon into immediate and long-term measures to address these challenges. The proposed measures can be seen as starting points and guidelines for discussions and actions to possibly improve the MICCAI conference with regards to reproducibility, diversity, and selection of papers.
... Another strategy for harnessing self-identity and consistency involves having people explicitly predict their future behavior. Because of the importance of self-consistency, asking people to make self-predictions about whether they will perform a behavior in the future can make them more likely to perform that behavior (Greenwald et al. 1987, Morwitz et al. 1993. Because people are especially prone to believing that they will perform other-benefiting behaviors in the future (Milkman et al. 2009), self-prediction may be especially potent for social mobilization efforts. ...
... Because people are especially prone to believing that they will perform other-benefiting behaviors in the future (Milkman et al. 2009), self-prediction may be especially potent for social mobilization efforts. Several field studies have shown that asking people to self-predict if they will vote can increase turnout (Greenwald et al. 1987, Nickerson & Rogers 2010. Although the likely impact of selfprediction on election participation is small (Smith et al. 2003), this intervention is inexpensive and tends to have a positive incremental effect (Nickerson & Rogers 2010). ...
Article
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This article reviews research from several behavioral disciplines to derive strategies for prompting people to perform behaviors that are individually costly and provide negligible individual or social benefits but are meaningful when performed by a large number of individuals. Whereas the term social influence encompasses all the ways in which people influence other people, social mobilization refers specifically to principles that can be used to influence a large number of individuals to participate in an activity. The motivational force of social mobilization is amplified by the fact that others benefit from the encouraged behaviors, and its overall impact is enhanced by the fact that people are embedded within social networks. This article may be useful to those interested in the provision of public goods, collective action, and prosocial behavior, and we give special attention to field experiments on election participation, environmentally sustainable behaviors, and charitable giving. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Psychology Volume 69 is January 4, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
... Social scientists often deal with various sensitive data that contains individual's private information, e.g. voting behavior (Greenwald et al., 1987), attitude toward abortion (Ebaugh and Haney, 1978) and medical records (David and Beards, 1985). The framework of hypothesis testing is frequently used by social scientists to confirm or reject their belief to how a population is modeled, e.g. ...
... ;Gill et al. (1987);Blair et al. (1979);Glaser (1959) and independence tests have been used byKuklinski and West (1981);Ebaugh and Haney (1978);Berry (1961);Krain and Myers (1997);Greenwald et al. (1987);Mitchell and McCormick (1988).Homer et al. (2008) published a proof-of-concept attack showing that participation of individuals in scientific studies can be inferred from aggregate data typically published in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Since then, there has been renewed interest in protecting confidentiality of participants in scientific data(Johnson and Shmatikov, 2013;Uhler et al., 2013;Yu et al., 2014;Simmons et al., 2016) using privacy definitions such as differential privacy and its variations(Dwork et al., 2006b,a;Bun and Steinke, 2016;Dwork and Rothblum, 2016). ...
Article
Data analysis is inherently adaptive, where previous results may influence which tests are carried out on a single dataset as part of a series of exploratory analyses. Unfortunately, classical statistical tools break down once the choice of analysis may depend on the dataset, which leads to overfitting and spurious conclusions. In this dissertation we put constraints on what type of analyses can be used adaptively on the same dataset in order to ensure valid conclusions are made. Following a line of work initiated from Dwork et al. [2015], we focus on extending the connection between differential privacy and adaptive data analysis. ^ Our first contribution follows work presented in Rogers et al. [2016]. We generalize and unify previous works in the area by showing that the generalization properties of (approximately) differentially private algorithms can be used to give valid p-value corrections in adaptive hypothesis testing while recovering results for statistical and low-sensitivity queries. One of the main benefits of differential privacy is that it composes, i.e. the combination of several differentially private algorithms is itself differentially private and the privacy parameters degrade sublinearly. However, we can only apply the composition theorems when the privacy parameters are all fixed up front. Our second contribution then presents a framework for obtaining composition theorems when the privacy parameters, along with the number of procedures that are to be used, need not be fixed up front and can be adjusted adaptively Rogers et al. [2016]. These contributions are only useful if there actually exists some differentially private procedures that a data analyst would want to use. Hence, we present differentially private hypothesis tests for categorical data based on the classical chi-square hypothesis tests (Gaboardi et al. [2016], Kifer Rogers [2017]).
... More specifically, we tested whether message recipients were more likely to register (i.e., comply with a large request) if they had first complied with a small request related to voter registration: in both variants, subjects were asked to send a one-word text message to OCC; in one case subjects were asked to text the word 'myvote' to indicate that they planned to register; in the other, subjects could text the word 'reminder' to register to receive a free reminder text to prompt them to register nearer the deadline for voters to register in the 2015 UK General Election. 62 Foot-inthe-door mechanisms have previously been tested in the context of voter turnout, with mixed results: asking subjects if they intended to vote was found to have a large, positive impact on turnout by Greenwald et al. (1987Greenwald et al. ( , 1988, but not by Smith et al. (2003). ...
Article
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This dissertation presents three projects within the fields of behavioural and experimental economics. The first consists of a meta-analysis of lab experiments measuring economic discrimination. Most importantly, I find that the strength of discrimination in economics experiments varies depending on the dimension of identity across which discrimination is measured, and depending on the type of game used to measure it. The second project investigates the relationship between discriminatory behaviour and social norms. A lab experiments finds that discrimination is stronger when it is perceived to be more socially appropriate. In the third project, a field experiment investigates the effect of different nudges on voter registration rates. In particular, emphasising the possibility of being fined for failing to register is successful in raising registration rates, but offering the possibility of financial gain for registering is not. An online experiment in the same project suggests the conflicting normative effects of the two nudges may help explain these differences.
... Both could increase their propensity to vote because being interviewed about a topic can increase interest in that topic (Bridge et al. 1977) and because behavior predictions can become self-fulfilling prophesies (Greenwald et al. 1988;Spangenberg and Greenwald 1999), enhancing the turnout gap in postelection interviews. A number of studies yielded evidence consistent with the claim that interviews about politics or predictions of turnout can increase actual turnout (Anderson, Silver, and Abramson 1988;Clausen 1968;Granberg and Holmberg 1992;Greenwald et al. 1987;Kraut and McConahay 1973;Spangenberg and Greenwald 1999;Yalch 1976), though other studies did not find such effects (Mann 2005;Smith, Gerber, and Orlich 2003). Furthermore, about 10 percent of ANES preelection respondents were not interviewed again after the election, and if these individuals were disproportionately low in interest in politics and the propensity to vote, this, too, could enhance the turnout gap. ...
Article
Postelection surveys regularly overestimate voter turnout by 10 points or more. This article provides the first comprehensive documentation of the turnout gap in three major ongoing surveys (the General Social Survey, Current Population Survey, and American National Election Studies), evaluates explanations for it, interprets its significance, and suggests means to continue evaluating and improving survey measurements of turnout. Accuracy was greater in face-to-face than telephone interviews, consistent with the notion that the former mode engages more respondent effort with less social desirability bias. Accuracy was greater when respondents were asked about the most recent election, consistent with the hypothesis that forgetting creates errors. Question wordings designed to minimize source confusion and social desirability bias improved accuracy. Rates of reported turnout were lower with proxy reports than with self-reports, which may suggest greater accuracy of proxy reports. People who do not vote are less likely to participate in surveys than voters are.
... Reminders may be effective if they bring attention to the future benefits of taking action (Karlan et al., 2016). Reminders may increase the likelihood the people take the desired action by aiding in planning or serving as an implementation prompt (Rogers et al., 2015), and asking people to predict whether they will follow through may itself increase the chance of follow-through (Greenwald et al., 1987). ...
Article
Residents’ participation is key to the success of urban tree planting programs, yet a gap between resident intentions and participation actions may limit the benefits provided by such programs. Philadelphia Parks and Recreation (Pennsylvania, US) has conducted tree giveaway events for residents since 2012 with the goal of increasing tree canopy. But some residents who register for giveaway events do not follow through and attend the event, creating logistical and planning difficulties that increase program costs. We tested whether phone call reminders could narrow the intention-action gap and increase the likelihood that registered residents attend a yard tree giveaway event. A total of 251 people registered for a spring 2018 giveaway event. Registered participants were randomly assigned to receive either a standard set of email and paper reminders representing normal program operations (126 participants), or to receive up to two phone call reminder attempts in addition to the standard reminders (125 participants). The follow-through (attendance) rate among registered participants who received phone calls was compared to those who did not receive phone calls. The phone calls in- creased attendance by 16 percentage points, a statistically significant increase. Based on this effect size and time spent making phone calls, staff spent an average of 12.4 min making phone calls per additional attendee. This study demonstrates the feasibility of using an experimental approach to facilitate evidence-based decisions in an urban tree planting context. Further research is needed to evaluate the impacts of communication strategies on resident behavior in tree planting and distribution programs.
... First, theories of self-prediction suggest that if people expressly predict that they will behave a certain way, then they are more likely to follow through on that behavior. This phenomenon is described in different literatures as the "self-erasing nature of errors of prediction" [12], the "self-prophecy effect" [13], and the "mere measurement effect" [14]. Applied to a GOTV context, the expectation is clear: a person is more likely to vote if they had previously predicted that they would do so. ...
Article
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Psychological theories of political behavior suggest that commitments to perform a certain action can significantly increase the likelihood of such action, but this has rarely been tested in an experimental context. Does pledging to vote increase turnout? In cooperation with the Environmental Defense Fund during the 2016 election, we conduct the first randomized controlled trials testing whether young people who pledge to vote are more likely to turn out than those who are contacted using standard Get-Out-the-Vote materials. Overall, pledging to vote increased voter turnout by 3.7 points among all subjects and 5.6 points for people who had never voted before. These findings lend support for theories of commitment and have practical implications for mobilization efforts aimed at expanding the electorate.
... The behaviors studied even extend to highly contrived situations, such as responding to a request to sing the U.S. National Anthem over the phone (Sherman, 1980). 4 The insights from the self-prophecy literature were first extended to voting by Greenwald et al. (1987), though the most compelling evidence on self-prophecy has come in more recent years. Burgess et al., (2000), Green (2004), and Michelson et al. (2009) all show that those treated with a request to pledge to vote did vote at higher rates than those in a control condition. ...
Article
Survey researchers have long struggled with respondents who, due to the pressure to adhere to socially desirable norms, erroneously claim to have voted in a previous election. In this paper, we develop a new approach to reducing the overreporting of voting in surveys by leveraging psychological theories that show people have a tendency to follow through on an action once they have predicted their behavior (e.g. Sherman, 1980). Using a survey experiment through the 2014 Cooperative Congressional Election Study, we find that an overwhelming majority of respondents will agree to take an honesty pledge regarding their future vote report. Having pledged their honesty, they then overreport their vote at far lower rates than other survey participants. The observed effects are additive, since previously developed methods of reducing overreporting were present across all conditions. These findings have important implications for studies endeavoring to understand voting behavior and social desirability pressures.
... Beberapa studi menunjukkan pentingnya faktor diri pada perilaku manusia (Triandis, 1989;Kraut, 1973;Greenwald et al, 1987;Snyder, 1974). Hal ini wajar mengingat pada akhirnya, pelaku suatu perilaku adalah individu. ...
Article
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Taman Nasional adalah sebuah area yang diciptakan atau digunakan untuk melestarikan lingkungan alami pada sebuah pembangunan yang sedang berjalan di sekitarnya. Untuk mendukung keberhasilannya maka sejumlah isu manajerial yang muncul dalam pengelolaan taman nasional harus dikelola dengan baik. Model manajemen yang tepat untuk pengelolaan Taman Nasional adalah partisipatif dengan konsep ekowisata karena prinsip-prinsip ekowisata tersebut sejalan dengan konsep pembangunan berkelanjutan. Akan tetapi konsep ekowisata memerlukan keterlibatan stakeholder karena adanya pertimbangan yang lebih besar mengenai keanekaragaman, baik dari segi sosial, lingkungan, politik, budaya, maupun ekonomi. Kerangka strategis untuk menghasilkan kemitraan yang berhasil antar stakeholder dapat diwujudkan apabila pemerintah dapat menjelaskan dan memprediksi bagaimana stakeholder berperilaku untuk merespon dan memberikan pengaruh pada lingkungannya karena setiap stakeholder memiliki persepsi berbeda berdasarkan nilai kehidupan yang dianutnya, termasuk masalah ekowisata. Strategi utama yang mendukung pengembangan kebijakan ekowisata adalah dengan melihat pada nilai-nilai yang dianut oleh para aktor dan memprediksi bagaimana para aktor menggunakan nilai ini untuk membangun persepsi kognitif dan emosional mengenai pesan ekowisata yang dibangun bersama.
... Furthermore, committed individuals have more stable, enduring, and accessible attitudes, as well as have higher levels of attitude-behaviour consistency (Gross, Holtz, & Miller, 1995;Pomerantz, Chaiken, & Tordesillas, 1995). In addition, commitment makes people behave consistently to the commitment (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987). ...
Technical Report
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The study of personality and individual differences is one of the oldest and most extensive literature in all of psychology (see Pervin, 1990; Barenbaum & Winter, 2008; Revelle, Wilt, & Condon, 2011). Variations in personality and individual differences have been linked to a vast array of behavioral, cognitive, and affective outcomes within the context of many social processes (e.g., see Chamorro-Premuzic, von Stumm, & Furnham, 2011; John, Robbins, & Pervin, 2008). The study of social influence is no exception. Over the past few decades, a sizeable amount of empirical literature has accumulated documenting the effects of numerous personality traits and individual differences in social influence processes such as conformity, compliance, obedience, and persuasion (e.g., see Briñol & Petty, 2005). The goal of the present report is to provide an overview of the research literature on the role of personality and individual differences in social influence. Our overview will draw primarily from the discipline of social-personality psychology, but as will be seen, at various points we will also draw on research from areas as diverse as consumer behavior, organizational behaviour, communications, health psychology, clinical psychology, and political psychology. The intent of this report is not to provide a detailed scholarly review of the many individual studies comprising this literature (although a number of specific research findings will be discussed). Rather, our objective is to provide a more conceptual introduction to this area of research. In doing so, our focus will be on explicating a theoretical framework in which to organize this literature and reviewing the key themes and principles that have emerged in empirical research. The report will aim to provide the reader with a guide focused on the “forest rather than the trees.” We will begin our report by providing an introduction to the key constructs in the personality/individual difference literature and the social influence literature, as well to some of the key methodological practices that have shaped this literature. In the second section of our report, we will introduce the reader to the wide array of personality and individual difference constructs that have been studied and illustrate how these constructs can be organized more parsimoniously within the context of a general conceptual framework. We will also discuss how this framework permits the many seemingly disparate effects associated with these constructs to be understood in the context of a relatively finite set of basic underlying psychological processes. Our review of this framework will conclude with a discussion of some of the general conclusions and implications that emerge from this conceptual perspective. In the third section of this report, we will turn our attention to a more detailed review of the empirical literature on the role of personality traits and individual differences in social influence. Our review of this literature will be structured along the lines of the framework presented. For each set of personality traits and individual differences, we will provide an introduction to the various individual characteristics making up this set, discuss the various effects that have been documented for each characteristic, and discuss the potential mechanisms that might be responsible for these effects. In the final section of the report, we will conclude with a general summary of the key empirical themes that have emerged from the literature and comment on some of the applied implications of this literature within the context of the Canadian Forces. We will also highlight important issues that remained to be resolved within the literature.
... In this treatment, we asked students to report by text whether they intended to register. Similar interventions have been used in the context of voter turnout: asking subjects whether they intended to vote was found to have a positive impact on turnout by Greenwald et al. (1987Greenwald et al. ( , 1988, but not by Smith et al. (2003). ...
Article
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We report two studies investigating whether, and if so how, different low-cost interventions affect voter registration rates. Low-cost message-based interventions are increasingly used to promote target behaviours. While growing evidence shows that such ‘nudges’ often significantly impact behaviour, understanding of why interventions work or fail in particular contexts remains underdeveloped. In a natural field experiment conducted before the 2015 UK general election, we varied messages on a postcard sent by Oxford City Council to unregistered students encouraging them to join the electoral register. Our primary finding from the field study is that just one of our interventions – a reminder that people failing to register may be fined – has a significant positive impact. Offering small monetary rewards to register instead has a negative but insignificant effect. In a second study, using an online experiment we identify a particular mechanism explaining the influence of this intervention. Specifically, we show that our interventions have divergent effects on perceptions of the normative appropriateness of registering: emphasising that failing to register is punishable by law strengthened the perception that one ought to register, while offering monetary inducements for registering weakened the perception that doing so is an action already expected within society.
... 6 Previous research suggests that individuals consistency between individuals" words/intentions and actions is associated with a sort of emotional utility . It is then further hypothesized that the association is reinforced if promises and goals are written down or shared in front of peers (Cialdini 1993;Greenwald et al. 1987). ...
... Cognitive dissonance has been proposed as a possible underlying mechanism of the QBE (Greenwald, Carnot, & Beach, 1987;Spangenberg et al., 2012;Spangenberg, Sprott, Grohmann, & Smith, 2003). Cognitive dissonance suggests that people make a prediction about their future behavior based on personal preferences or environmental factors and usually under or overestimate their actual behavior. ...
Article
The question‐behavior effect suggests that asking people questions about their behavior influences future behavior. We investigated the moderating roles of self‐affirmation (Studies 1–3) and goal difficulty (Study 3). Participants completed questionnaires that included one/no‐prediction question about fruit and vegetable consumption. Some participants completed a self‐affirmation task as part of their questionnaire and all participants received a voucher for free fruit or vegetables. Use of the voucher was the outcome measure in all three studies. Prediction questions involving a difficult/easy to achieve goal resulted in a decrease/increase in voucher use, respectively, while adding a self‐affirmation task attenuated question‐behavior effects. We conclude that framing behaviors as “easy to achieve” increases the effectiveness of question‐behavior effect interventions and that self‐affirmation is effective in avoiding unwanted question‐behavior effects.
... Instead of looking for explanations that account for over reporting, some scholars proposed temptative solutions to correct this problem. Changing the order of the questions or including a third party during the interview are examples of instrumental corrections (e.g., B. D. Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987;Presser, 1990;Stocké, 2007;Hanmer, Banks, & White, 2014;Holbrook & Krosnick, 2010;Holbrook, Sterrett, Johnson, & Krysan, 2016). ...
Thesis
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Who votes? is a fundamental question in political science, electoral campaigns, and public opinion research. The aim of this thesis is to produce a measure of the individual propensity to vote that is (a) less biased than self-reports, and (b) more precise than binary or categorical measures. To meet that end, the approach taken is a model-based prediction. Using validated vote data from the American National Election Studies (ANES) of 2012, I estimate a Bayesian regression model that outperforms the self-predicted measures of vote available in the ANES survey.
... hamse & Steg, 2013; Osbaldiston & Schott, 2012), and, like the principle of reciprocation, this is partially because of people's desire to get along with others. Capriciousness and unpredictability are not traits others desire (Allgeier, Byrne, Brooks, & Revnes, 1979;Asch, 1946), so once one has made a commitment to a course of action, they tend to con tinue down that course (e.g., Baca-Motes, Brown, Gneezy, Keenan, & Nelson, 2012;Freedman & Frasier, 1966;Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987;Knox & Inkster, 1968;Regan & Kilduff, 1988). In fact, making others aware of commitments-for example by sharing New Year's resolutions with others-is an often-used trick people use to help themselves remain consistent with their commitments (Cialdini, 2016A). ...
Chapter
It is through the influence process that people generate and manage change. As such, it is important to understand fully the workings of the influence processes that produce compliance with requests for change. Fortunately, a vast body of scientific evidence exists on how, when, and why people comply with influence attempts. From this formidable body of work, one can extract six universal principles of influence that generate compliance in the widest range of circumstances. Reciprocation states that people are more willing to comply with requests (for favors, services, information, concessions, etc.) from those who have provided such things first. Commitment/Consistency states that people are more willing to be moved in a particular direction if they see it as consistent with an existing commitment. Authority states that people are more willing to follow the directions or recommendations of a communicator to whom they attribute relevant expertise. Social Proof states that people are more willing to take a recommended action if they see evidence that many others, especially similar others, are taking it. Scarcity states that people find objects and opportunities more attractive to the degree that they are scarce, rare, or dwindling in availability. Finally, Liking states that people prefer to say yes to those they like, such as those who are similar to them and who have complimented them.
... Both focus upon how the research measurement process changes participants' subsequent behaviour. The difference between MME and SPE is that the former emphasises changes in consumption behaviour (Morwitz et al., 1993), while the latter stresses changes in socially normative or risky behaviour (Greenwald et al., 1987). MME theory largely draws on Feldman and Lynch's (1988) concept of self-generated validity (Dholakia, 2010), suggesting that the questioning creates the construct through measurement, with the construct then remaining in the memory and influencing subsequent behaviour (Borle et al., 2007;Dholakia and Morwitz, 2002). ...
Article
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Purpose Construct Creation (CC) is a methodological problem occurring when a research process, instead of measuring an extant construct in the participant’s mind, creates the construct. The purpose of this paper is to argue that CC derives from problems around ecologically invalid research and attitudinal responses developed on the spot, both resulting from self-generated validity. Design/methodology/approach A between-subjects design was used to explore whether the personification prime (PP), a component of brand personality (BP) methodology, influenced the CC of BP for rocks. Analysis of qualitative data on how participants made their BP ratings in the absence of a PP was also completed. Findings Findings revealed that a methodology can enable CC in the participant’s mind, despite the construct being ecologically invalid prior to them participating in the study. Analysis also revealed that participants will use varied, and sometimes elaborate, strategies to enable CC and provide researchers with the answers to their questions. Research limitations/implications Previous research has drawn attention to CC as a problem but the implications of prior research have so far been “sidestepped”. Consequently, this paper demonstrates CC and why it is a problem, while rebutting some arguments made in prior research for sidestepping CC. Practical implications CC is a potentially serious methodological problem that can result in invalid findings informing or misdirecting theory used by practitioners. As such, this paper proposes methods to ameliorate CC and improve ecological validity of future research. Originality/value This study will contribute to methodological literature by refocusing attention to the currently neglected problem of CC and by proposing a model of CC by participants.
... The second email was a simple reminder to perform the survey and was identical to the message sent in the control treatment. Commitment treatments similar to ours have been employed to stimulate healthy behaviors (e.g., Sandberg and Conner 2009;Bernstein et al. 2009) and voting (e.g., Greenwald et al. 1987;Smith et al. 2003;Mann 2005;Nickerson and Rogers 2010). These studies report either positive or insignificant treatment effects. ...
Article
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This paper reports the results of a large randomized field experiment that investigates the extent to which nudges can stimulate student participation in teaching evaluations. The three nudges that we used were designed to either: (1) heighten students’ perceived impact of teaching evaluations, (2) communicate a descriptive norm of high participation, and (3) use the commitment-consistency principle by asking students to commit to participation. We find that none of the nudges were effective: all treatment effects are insignificant and close to zero in magnitude. Exploring heterogeneous treatment effects, we find evidence that the effectiveness of both the impact and commitment treatments differed across students. The impact treatment had a negative effect on the participation of bachelor-level students, but not on that of master-level students. The commitment treatment increased participation among students with good average grades, whereas it decreased participation for students whose average grades were poor.
... The other, identical in every way, was in the control condition, and says she will vote for Obama. Having declared those voting intentions, the likelihood they will actually vote for McCain and Obama, respectively, increases (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987). The first, having voted for McCain, is less satisfied with Obama eight months later-after all, she did vote for McCain, so she is naturally more disappointed. ...
Article
We report findings from a meta-analysis on all published and unpublished studies from our labs (total N = 9,656) examining the priming effect of the American flag on political attitudes. Our analyses suggest that, consistent with the studies we originally published in 2011 (T. J. Carter et al., 2011b), American flag primes did create politically conservative shifts in attitudes and beliefs during the initial time period when data were collected (even excluding the published studies), but this effect has since declined over time to be roughly zero, though we believe that other interpretations, including false positives, are plausible. We discuss possible interpretations of this decline effect and the importance of considering the historical context inrelation to the priming effects of symbols whose meaning is not static over time. We also highlight the value of publicly posting data, emptying file drawers, and conducting direct as well as conceptual replications.
... 1987 tarihli bir çalışmada (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987), öğrenciler telefonla aranarak öğrencilere gerçekleşecek olan seçimde oy verip vermeyecekleri sorulmuş, oy verme işlemi öncesi arandıklarında seçimlerde oy kullanacaklarını söyleyen öğrencilerin kontrol grubuna nazaran daha fazla oy kullandıkları bulunmuştur. ...
Article
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Davranışsal İçgörü, başta psikoloji, bilişsel bilimler, ekonomi, iletişim, davranış bilimleri olmak üzere pek çok sosyal bilim dalından beslenen ve bu alanlardan elde ettiği veriler doğrultusunda kişilerin ve/veya toplumun refahını yükseltmeye yönelik uygulamalar ve politikalar oluşturmaya yarayan yaklaşımdır. Dünyanın dört bir yanından pek çok ülke, özellikle son on yıldır, davranışsal içgörüyü bir politika oluşturma aracı olarak kullanmaktadır. Bu çalışma, sağlık iletişimi bağlamında, kamu sağlık politikalarının tasarımında davranışsal içgörünün kullanımını ve etkilerini ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Davranışsal politika çalışmalarında en sık kullanılan yöntemin rastgele kontrol denemeleri olduğu görülmektedir. Bu çalışmada da, örneklem olarak İngiltere Ulusal Sağlık Hizmetleri'nde gerçekleştirilen randomize kontrol çalışmaları ele alınmıştır. İçerik analizi kullanılarak, rastgele kontrol denemelerinde uygulanan davranışsal müdahaleler Sunstein'ın "10 Önemli Dürtme", çalışmasına göre değerlendirilmiş ve Türkiye için çıkarımlarda bulunulmuştur. Abstract Behavioral Insights is an approach that creates practices and policies aimed at improving the well-being of individuals and / or society in accordance with the data obtained from many social sciences, particularly psychology, cognitive sciences, economics, communication, and behavioral sciences. Many countries from around the world have been using behavioral insights as a policy making tool, especially for the last decade. This article aims to demonstrate the use and the implications of behavioral insights in context of health communication for the design of a public health issue. It is seen that the oft-used method in forming a behaviorally-informed policy is randomized control trials. In this study, the randomized control trials performed in the United Kingdom National Health Service are addressed. By the use of content analysis, the behavioral interventions used within these trials are evaluated according to Sunstein's "10 Important Nudges", and some inferences are made for Turkey, accordingly.
... This effect has also been proved in the voting domain. If people are asked, the day before an election, to predict their behavior on election day, they will be more likely to vote (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987). A similar procedure can be used to induce people to change their behavior and to purchase different goods (Morwitz, Johnson, & Schmittlein, 1993) or even to floss their teeth (Levav & Fitzsimons, 2006). ...
Article
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The paper explores the effect of nudges on dishonest academic behavior in a 3x4 factorial treatment design. Subjects had to throw a physical die 50 times, report the outcome and were given partial credit for their participation. 435 students were assigned to the following conditions: a) a nudge presenting an authoritarian instruction; 2) a nudge referring to the college code of honor; 3) a nudge that presented reasons for not cheating; and 4) a condition presenting no instruction at all. Additionally, within each condition, the partial credit incentive obtained from participating in the study varied. Some did not have it (n=166), others had a partial credit that represented 15% of the final grade (n=145), and, lastly, some of them had a partial credit that represented 2% or less of the final grade (n=124). Our results showed a significant difference between the group that had an academic incentive and the group that did not: t(433) =-2.35, p = 0.0190. However, we did not find any significant difference between any of the nudge conditions. Among students who could obtain academic credit, the incentive's magnitude did not have an effect on the results of the task: t(267)=-0.90, p=0.3651. This indicates that the presence of incentives increases dishonest behavior, but their magnitude does not. These results suggest that when given an academic incentive to cheat, students will be dishonest, and they shed light on Colombian culture and on the effects of the education grading system. Finally, the study showed that the nudges that are reported in the literature are not as effective as they are said to be. In fact, more research should be dedicated to the effectiveness of nudges in different cultures and it should be done to look for effective nudges on academic settings.
... Thus, an observation effect may be more prominent when the participant already has positive feelings about the behavior being reported, is influenced by any perceived norms, or believes they are especially capable of performing the behavior. For example, in 1987 Greenwald and colleagues (Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, & Young, 1987) reported a marked increase in voter turnout simply by measuring intentions and self-efficacy of voters prior to voting day; however, this finding could not be replicated in a second experiment (Smith, Gerber, & Orlich, 2003). There are further effects of skills, habit, and environmental constraints on the extent to which intentions are executed; thus, smaller effects for studies of blood donation, with more logistical issues and constraints, and larger effects for studies involving simpler tasks such as walking more steps per day, may be attributed to this theoretical model. ...
Article
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Daily diaries and ecological momentary assessments are plagued by the assessment itself becoming an intervention, known as the observation effect. Bayesian hierarchical level modeling is a technique to analyze repeated measures or multiple outcomes. In a study of twice-daily self-reporting of sun protection behavior among high-risk individuals, we investigate observation effects, agreement between retrospectively self-reported reminder effect and observation effect, differential observation effects, and consistency of behaviors. Participants who retrospectively reported no reminder effect showed a decrease in protective behaviors over time, whereas those who reported they were reminded showed sustained use. Advantages of the Bayesian methodology are demonstrated for assessing consistency of behaviors. Although we cannot observe prior behavior, we theorize that individuals experience an initial elevation at the onset of observation, though this unobserved increase is only sustained for a subset who later attribute this sustained behavior to a reminder effect. Implications for study designs with repeated observations are discussed.
... Velleman notes that there are many cases in which expressing that you will perform an action makes you more likely to perform it. For example, he refers to a psychological study, performed by Greenwald, Carnot, Beach and Young (1987), which indicates that subjects who predict they will vote are signifi cantly more likely to vote than those who are never asked to make a prediction (Velleman 2005: 65-66). Carr maintains that by telling ourselves future-oriented stories about how we will complete our undertakings, we can also: remain clear about how our current activities relate to our goals; clarify to ourselves what we will need to do next; better determine if we have gone off track; and better fi gure out if we need to change our strategies to address changing circumstances (1986: 61, 71 and 87;cf. ...
Article
Can fictional literature help us lead better lives? This essay argues that some works of literature can help us both change our personal narratives and develop new narratives that will guide our actions, enabling us to better achieve our goals. Works of literature can lead us to consider the hypothesis that we might beneficially change our future-oriented, personal narratives. As a case study, this essay considers Ben Lerner’s novel, 10:04, which focuses on humans’ ability to develop new narratives, and which articulates a narrative that takes into account both everyday life and large-scale issues like the global, environmental crisis.
... Both focus upon how the research measurement process changes participants' subsequent behavior. The difference between MME and SPE is that the former emphasises changes in consumption behavior (e.g., Morwitz, Johnson, and Schmittlein, 1993), while the latter stresses changes in socially normative or risky behavior (e.g., Greenwald, Carnot, Beach, and Young, 1987). MME theory largely draws on Feldman and Lynch's (1988) concept of self-generated validity (Dholakia, 2010), suggesting that the questioning creates the construct through measurement, with the construct then remaining in the memory and influencing subsequent behavior (see Borle, Dholakia, Singh, and Westbrook, 2007;Dholakia and Morwitz, 2002). ...
Preprint
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Purpose: Construct Creation (CC) is a methodological problem occurring when a research process, instead of measuring an extant construct in the participant’s mind, creates the construct. We argue that CC derives from problems around ecologically invalid research and attitudinal responses developed on the spot, both resulting from self-generated validity.
... Another method of nudge applied in this application is the mere-measurement effect, which is used to refer to the trend that people tend to act following the answers after being asked about intention questions (Morwitz, Johnson, and Schmittlein, 1993). Studies find the mere-measurement effect is effective in many behaviour changes, such as voting behaviour, blood donation and physical activity (Greenwald et al., 1987;Godin et al., 2008;Godin et al., 2011). According to such strategies, the application employs default options to gain permission to send notifications and e-main and intention questions to nudge users to read. ...
Preprint
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For this project, I designed an application based on smartphone named ‘UniRead’. This application is aimed to urge university students to finish the reading lists and track the progress. The idea came from the situation I found that many students cannot finish the reading lists, even the key reading, before lectures or seminars. Additionally, there is a gap in the applications focused on the student's reading lists, whether there are some time management applications or reading applications can not be associated with the reading lists and help to track the progress. This app can be logged in through a university email account and automatically import the reading lists provided by the library website, track a user's reading progress and remind one to read. It employs multiple theories and methods, including the Elaboration Likelihood Model, social influence, the nudge theory, user experience and gamification.
... Mere measurement effects indicate that "the mere act of responding to surveys changes subsequent opinions and behaviour" (Morwitz, 2005, p. 452). Previous studies in social and consumer psychology have demonstrated that, by participating in a survey on a specific topic, one's interest in, or the chances of decision-making related to, the relevant topic, can be improved (e.g., Greenwald et al., 1987;Morwitz et al., 1993). When applying this effect to the context of this paper, by engaging in motivational languaging, L2 learners' interest in their L2 learning can be enhanced. ...
Article
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This paper focuses on the effect of motivational languaging activities (MLAs) on EFL learning motivation. Swain (2006) defines languaging as "the process of making meaning and shaping knowledge and experience through language" (p. 98). We extend Swain's original notion to L2 motivation; through MLAs, L2 learners are encouraged to talk or write about the importance of L2 learning and their visions in their own words. Various types of activities were implemented for elementary, junior high, and high school students: 1) written, 2) spoken, and 3) spoken plus written activities, in individual or group conditions. By using questionnaires, students' motivational changes including their ideal L2 self and the ought-to L2 self (Dörnyei, 2009) were measured at the beginning and the end of the participation in the activities. The results indicated that students in experimental groups exhibited various increases in their motivations, compared to no significant changes in control groups. Furthermore, the written form proved to be a more effective type of activities, especially when students engaged in it individually. Findings suggest the usefulness of MLAs for enhancing L2 learning motivation.
... There is also some evidence that being asked about electoral participation specifically might increase the likelihood of voting (e.g. Greenwald et al., 1987). Because we do not observe the voting behaviour of non-respondents, we cannot assess the extent that these problems affect the Understanding Society data. ...
Article
Full-text available
In the aftermath of the 2017 UK General Election, some claimed that Labour performed unexpectedly well because of a surge in youth turnout. Polling estimates for the size of this ‘youthquake’ ranged from 12 to 21 points amongst 18–24 year olds. Using conventional and Bayesian statistical methods, we analyse British Election Study and British Social Attitudes random probability surveys and find no evidence of a shift in the relationship between age and turnout of this scale. Using the pooled BES and BSA reported turnout data with an informative prior that there was a modest increase in 18–24 turnout (N{6, 3}), our 95% credible interval for that change is between 0.9 and 8.8 points. Even with a strong youthquake prior (N{15.5, 3.5}), our data suggest that there is only a 4% probability that the change in turnout amongst 18–24 years olds was 12 points or higher.
... Students can search by name and the interface displays both exact matches and close matches in the case of typos. 13 Using a 11 These behaviors include getting flu vaccines (Milkman et al., 2011), voting (Greenwald et al., 1987;Nickerson and Rogers, 2010), purchase of a product (Morwitz et al., 1993) and so on. 12 Other benefits of the prompts can also contribute to reducing the uncertainty. ...
Thesis
Peers play an important role in shaping behavior in many contexts. In this dissertation, I study the role of peer interactions on key educational outcomes. In Chapter One, I implement a field experiment to examine the role of social interactions in creating spillover effects. Spillover effects happen when individuals are indirectly affected by an intervention through exposure to other treated individuals. In the experiment, I randomly assign college students in an introductory statistics course to a low-cost behavioral intervention. Treated students receive advice and prompts to make exam study plans. I measure a naturally formed peer network and exploit the exogenous variation in exposure to the intervention in order to causally estimate spillover effects on study behaviors that are transmitted through study partners. I construct a simple social learning model. Additional behavioral evidence further supports the model and I show that the positive spillover effects on untreated students are mostly driven by treated partners who have high beliefs about the return to the applet usage. Surprisingly, I find circumstances under which social interactions reduce the treatment effect. Taken together, this paper provides causal evidence of spillover effects on behavior due to peer interactions and unpacks the complexities behind spillover effects. My results highlight that in networked environments, policy makers should take peer effects into consideration not only to correctly evaluate, but also to leverage social learning to maximize policy impacts. In Chapter Two, I study a natural experiment that randomly assigns students into study groups and estimate the effect of studying with peers of certain characteristics. I find little evidence that peers’ background academic performances have significant effects on the course final grade using the traditional linear in the mean model. I find that the group gender mix has an economically and statistically significant impact. In particular, being in groups with more female peers leads to an increase in the course grade for both female and male students. I exploit the course website’s log data, and find that one is more likely to download course materials when in more female groups. This is a plausible mechanism through which the gender mix affects the grades. I also find that studying with peers from another lecture section marginally improves one’s course grade. My paper therefore provides practical suggestions for assigning students into study groups. In Chapter Three, we use a longitudinal survey design and follow college freshman, in order to provide evidence for two separate mechanisms (homophily and influence) behind similarity in peers’ behaviors. This paper demonstrates these effects for the subtle (but broadly important) underlying economic preferences, rather than the observable but potentially domain-specific behaviors previously studied. Subjects participate in three waves of an online experiment where we elicit their social network using an incentive compatible mechanism and then measure participants’ levels of altruism, willingness to take risks, and willingness to delay rewards using diagnostic tasks. We find that subjects’ risk and time preferences are significantly positively correlated with the preferences of their friends, consistent with peer influence on preferences. Additionally, we find that changes in subject’s social networks are significantly influenced by social preferences. Subjects are more likely to add someone as a friend, and less likely to drop as a friend, the more similar their social preferences are.
Article
Commitment devices restricting future behavior have demonstrated promise in helping individuals improve their savings behavior, yet often suffer from low take-up. We test a new “soft” commitment account that asks borrowers to think about their savings goals, how it would feel to achieve them, and make a pledge to work toward these goals, yet has no external restrictions on savings behavior. In a six-month randomized experiment among consumers that find it difficult to meet their savings needs, we find that such soft commitments can significantly increase initial savings relative to either a hard commitment account (that prevents withdrawals) or a traditional savings account. In addition, the soft commitments significantly increased final savings balances relative to no form of commitment and were particularly effective for impatient individuals. Despite the lower initial take-up, the hard commitment account proved most effective in building savings balances among our participants at the end of 6 months.
Thesis
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Eine Stellenausschreibung für Verhaltenswissenschaftler in einer Projektgruppe des Bundeskanzleramts sorgte in der deutschen Öffentlichkeit für Aufsehen und etablierte den Begriff des Nudging in der politischen Diskussion. In politikwissenschaftlichen Fachmedien und in Forschungsarbeiten ist dieser jedoch bislang nur am Rande erörtert worden. Allein schon die Fixierung und Einordnung des Untersuchungsgegenstands bereitete Schwierigkeiten. Um diesen näher zu bestimmen, wurde in vorliegender Arbeit durch Exkurse in die Ökonomie und Psychologie eine interdisziplinäre Herangehensweise gewählt. Daraus wurde eine Arbeitsdefinition entwickelt und eine existierende Typologie mit vier-Kategorien von teils transparenten und intransparenten Nudges verwendet. Diese wurden ausführlich charakterisiert. Der libertäre Paternalismus als politische Begründungskonstruktion und der politische Institutionalisierungsverlauf werden hingegen lediglich kursorisch dargelegt. Im Anschluss daran wurde das deutsche Politikverständnis in Hinblick auf die Entstehung von Legitimität aus Verfahren sowie die hiesige Demokratiekonzeption mit Fokus auf die politische Kultur und die in ihr enthaltenen ökonomischen und psychologischen Elemente untersucht. Daraus resultiert, dass Nudging als Element psychologischer Politik bereits unter dem Begriff Framing bekannt ist, weshalb die bisherigen Erkenntnisse hierzu angeführt wurden. Eine zunehmende Implementation von Nudges in das politische System der Bundesrepublik ist durchaus möglich und wird durch die pluralistische Ausgestaltung der Verfahren innerhalb der Politics-Dimension legitimiert. Der libertäre Paternalismus hingegen ist eine untaugliche politische Begründungskonstruktion. Im Methodenkoffer politischer Steuerung mit den Techniken Finanzierung, Regulierung, Informierung und Strukturierung stellt Nudging weder eine eigene noch eine neue Steuerungstechnik dar, es verändert in diesem aber die Präsentation von Form und Inhalt der aus diesen Techniken hervorgehenden Steuerungsinstrumente. Abschließend werden mögliche Defizite der Arbeit benannt sowie Forschungsperspektiven aufgezeigt. An employment ad offering positions for behavioral scientists in a project at the Bundeskanzleramt raised public attention and established the term “Nudging“ within the political public agenda in Germany. Both specialist media and research in the political sciences have not considered the topic on a broader scale. The determination and classification of Nudging are stressed as major problems. Digressions into the neighboring disciplines of economics and psychology were undertaken for a precise determination and distinct classification. A definition is developed and an existing typology with four categories of transparent and intransparent nudges is used. They are being comprehensively characterized. On the other hand, the idea of libertarian paternalism as a potential ideological foundation and the history of the implementation of Nudging into political institutions around the world are cursorily examined. The German understanding of politics in general with a focus on how the legitimacy of government interventions evolves is then analysed. Hence, democracy in particular, with a focus on the political culture and economic and psychological elements within it are analysed. Since one result is that Nudging in politics is actually well-known by the term Framing, research on political Framing is evaluated and put into perspective. An implementation of Nudging into the political system of Germany is possible. The legitimacy of nudges can be found in the pluralistic design of political procedures within the Politics-dimension, not in the construction of libertarian paternalism. In terms of governance Nudging is neither new nor a technique of its own. Nudges can be used to edit the presentation of shape and content of instruments of governance-techniques termed carrots, sticks, sermons and frames. Eventually, critical aspects of this paper are examined and future directions for further research are expressed.
Chapter
This chapter provides an overview of findings about the mechanisms, presence, and magnitude of the effects of panel conditioning and offers practical guidelines regarding survey design that would allow the effects of disadvantageous panel conditioning to be minimised. It reviews the literature, with purposeful selection of studies, including studies whose design allows us to draw inferences about the phenomenon and to infer recommendations for survey practice. The chapter also provides a review of the mechanisms from a perspective of the framework of survey response. It illustrates the mechanisms of panel conditioning providing empirical evidence regarding the conditions under which questions are susceptible to panel conditioning and survey features have been found to influence the undesirable effects of panel conditioning. The chapter concludes by providing some tips on how to minimise the negative effects of panel conditioning on data quality and by giving advice on optimal designs for studying panel conditioning.
Article
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Research Proposal
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Chapter
Improving the impact of information technology (IT) investments is potentially beneficial for our society. This study identifies triggers which influence behavior of organizational agents on managing IT. In scope of this study are the portfolio decisions regarding where to invest the IT euro, the management of IT projects and the management of the IT infrastructure. Following the theory of planned behavior, it is shown for controllers of Dutch organizations that ‘intention’ is positively associated with behavior and that ‘subjective norm’ and ‘perceived behavior control’ are positively associated with intention. For portfolio and IT infrastructure management, attitude is also positively associated with intention. Overall it is concluded that the most important levers for behavior for the focus areas are ‘social pressure’ and the explicit confirmation of the agent’s own intention. This is good news since both can be easily influenced without significant monetary investment.
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Surveys are a key tool for understanding political behavior, but they are subject to biases that render their estimates about the frequency of socially desirable behaviors inaccurate. For decades the American National Election Study (ANES) has overestimated voter turnout, though the causes of this persistent bias are poorly understood. The face-to-face component of the 2012 ANES produced a turnout estimate at least 13 points higher than the benchmark voting-eligible population turnout rate. We consider three explanations for this overestimate in the survey: nonresponse bias, over-reporting and the possibility that the ANES constitutes an inadvertent mobilization treatment. Analysis of turnout data supplied by voter file vendors allows the three phenomena to be measured for the first time in a single survey. We find that over-reporting is the largest contributor, responsible for six percentage points of the turnout overestimate, while nonresponse bias and mobilization account for an additional 4 and 3 percentage points, respectively.
Article
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Background Measurement can affect the people being measured; for example, asking people to complete a questionnaire can result in changes in behaviour (the ‘question–behaviour effect’). The usual methods of conduct and analysis of randomised controlled trials implicitly assume that the taking of measurements has no effect on research participants. Changes in measured behaviour and other outcomes due to measurement reactivity may therefore introduce bias in otherwise well-conducted randomised controlled trials, yielding incorrect estimates of intervention effects, including underestimates. Objectives The main objectives were (1) to promote awareness of how and where taking measurements can lead to bias and (2) to provide recommendations on how best to avoid or minimise bias due to measurement reactivity in randomised controlled trials of interventions to improve health. Methods We conducted (1) a series of systematic and rapid reviews, (2) a Delphi study and (3) an expert workshop. A protocol paper was published [Miles LM, Elbourne D, Farmer A, Gulliford M, Locock L, McCambridge J, et al. Bias due to MEasurement Reactions In Trials to improve health (MERIT): protocol for research to develop MRC guidance. Trials 2018; 19 :653]. An updated systematic review examined whether or not measuring participants had an effect on participants’ health-related behaviours relative to no-measurement controls. Three new rapid systematic reviews were conducted to identify (1) existing guidance on measurement reactivity, (2) existing systematic reviews of studies that have quantified the effects of measurement on outcomes relating to behaviour and affective outcomes and (3) experimental studies that have investigated the effects of exposure to objective measurements of behaviour on health-related behaviour. The views of 40 experts defined the scope of the recommendations in two waves of data collection during the Delphi procedure. A workshop aimed to produce a set of recommendations that were formed in discussion in groups. Results Systematic reviews – we identified a total of 43 studies that compared interview or questionnaire measurement with no measurement and these had an overall small effect (standardised mean difference 0.06, 95% confidence interval 0.02 to 0.09; n = 104,096, I ² = 54%). The three rapid systematic reviews identified no existing guidance on measurement reactivity, but we did identify five systematic reviews that quantified the effects of measurement on outcomes (all focused on the question–behaviour effect, with all standardised mean differences in the range of 0.09—0.28) and 16 studies that examined reactive effects of objective measurement of behaviour, with most evidence of reactivity of small effect and short duration. Delphi procedure – substantial agreement was reached on the scope of the present recommendations. Workshop – 14 recommendations and three main aims were produced. The aims were to identify whether or not bias is likely to be a problem for a trial, to decide whether or not to collect further quantitative or qualitative data to inform decisions about if bias is likely to be a problem, and to identify how to design trials to minimise the likelihood of this bias. Limitation The main limitation was the shortage of high-quality evidence regarding the extent of measurement reactivity, with some notable exceptions, and the circumstances that are likely to bring it about. Conclusion We hope that these recommendations will be used to develop new trials that are less likely to be at risk of bias. Future work The greatest need is to increase the number of high-quality primary studies regarding the extent of measurement reactivity. Study registration The first systematic review in this study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018102511. Funding Funded by the Medical Research Council UK and the National Institute for Health Research as part of the Medical Research Council–National Institute for Health Research Methodology Research Programme.
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