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Does a Watched Pot Boil? A Time-Series Analysis of New York State's Sex Offender Registration and Notification Law

Authors:
Jeffrey C. Sandler at New York State Office of Mental Health
Jeffrey C. Sandler
  • New York State Office of Mental Health
Naomi J. Freeman
Naomi J. Freeman
Naomi J. Freeman
  • This person is not on ResearchGate, or hasn't claimed this research yet.
Kelly Michael Socia at University of Massachusetts Lowell
Kelly Michael Socia
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Despite the fact that the federal and many state governments have enacted registration and community notification laws as a means to better protect communities from sexual offending, limited empirical research has been conducted to examine the impact of such legislation on public safety. Therefore, utilizing time-series analyses, this study examined differences in sexual offense arrest rates before and after the enactment of New York State's Sex Offender Registration Act. Results provide no support for the effectiveness of registration and community notification laws in reducing sexual offending by: (a) rapists, (b) child molesters, (c) sexual recidivists, or (d) first-time sex offenders. Analyses also showed that over 95% of all sexual offense arrests were committed by first-time sex offenders, casting doubt on the ability of laws that target repeat offenders to meaningfully reduce sexual offending. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
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... Letourneau et al. (2010) followed up a sample of 6,064 individuals convicted of sexual offenses in South Carolina and reported no predictive value of the registration status for sexual recidivism. Furthermore, results of studies from New York (Sandler et al., 2008) and New Jersey (Zgoba et al., 2010) In a study about the effects of sexual offending-related policies implemented in Florida since 1997, the authors used aggregate data of different time periods. Again, the researcher found no decrease in sexual recidivism rates attributable to the sexual offending policies . ...
How the Risk Principle Reduces Recidivism: The Impact of Legislative Revisions on the Release and Reoffense Rates of Individuals Convicted of Sexual Offenses
Article
Full-text available
  • Jun 2024
Objective: The present study examined the relationship between legislative revisions regarding sexual offenses and the release decisions and recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses. In 2008, the Austrian government passed a package of revised criminal laws aiming to decrease incarceration rates. At the same time, connecting recidivism risk to professional risk management efforts was expected to increase public safety. Hypotheses: Given the strong empirical background of the implemented risk assessment and management efforts, we expected both an increase in the percentage of conditional release decisions and a decrease in recidivism rates. Method: We analyzed the data of 2,610 male individuals convicted of sexual offenses who were released from the Austrian Prison System between 2001 and 2016 within a natural experiment using a prospective-longitudinal quasi-experimental study design. Results: The results indicated that the percentage of conditional releases of individuals convicted of sexual offenses increased substantially since 2008. Additionally, within the same period, the recidivism rates of individuals convicted of sexual offenses decreased further. Conclusion: Even if both developmental processes are only correlational and a causal relationship cannot be examined, the present results supported the empirical evidence of the risk principle—at least if it is based on scientifically sound risk assessment and management methods.
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... Such registries have been implemented in parts of the US and other countries. Research has failed to demonstrate the effects of such registries on new sexual offences or recidivism (Sandler et al., 2008;Tewksbury & Jennings, 2010;Vásquez et al., 2008). Registries also appear to impact ISOs' social relationships, housing, and job opportunities as well as their mental health (Tewksbury, 2012). ...
Support and Treatment for Men Convicted of Sexual Offending: Readiness, Change, and Previous Help-Seeking
Thesis
Full-text available
  • May 2024
Social work plays a crucial role in the prevention of sexual abuse. Such prevention can involve protection for potential victims but also measures directed at those who perpetrate sexual abuse. However, research on desistance among those who have committed sexual offences, their treatment readiness, and help-seeking prior to conviction is scarce. This doctoral thesis aims to explore support and treatment from the perspective of adult men convicted of sexual offences in Sweden. What are their experiences of change after participation in sex offender treatment, and how do they engage in risk-reducing interventions? Particular attention is placed on the roles of relatives and society. Data consist of pre- and post-tests (n = 99) and in-depth interviews with men convicted of sexual crimes (n = 19). The interviews were carried out with both participants (n = 13) and non-participants (n = 6) in sex offender treatment. Participants’ self-reports (n ~ 26) and therapist ratings (n = 46) analysed in paper I suggest that participation in the sex offender programme called SEIF may be associated with changes in criminogenic needs, potentially reducing issues linked to recidivism. However, caution is advised due to methodological limitations. Further studies are needed to determine effectiveness. According to paper II, interviewees who participated in SEIF (n = 13) appeared to have started building new prosocial narrative identities, indicative of early desistance. The findings in paper III suggest that non-rehabilitative, punitive elements within correctional systems can create barriers to readiness. Nevertheless, supportive and non-punitive responses from staff, close ones, or fellow inmates seemed to counteract these negative loops. This hypothesised relational mechanism, promoting readiness, is termed looping disruption. Paper IV examines help-seeking behaviours and indicates that prevention efforts can either succeed or fail at various societal levels. Barriers to seeking help include a lack of awareness of the problem, fear of social consequences, and a neglectful welfare system. Professionals with specific knowledge and focus were seen as providing meaningful support, while the involvement of loved ones was a central motivator. In conclusion, a non-judgmental, person-centred, and supportive approach is recommended, as it seems to increase willingness to change. Professionals may need specific training to tackle the challenges associated with this task. Furthermore, the thesis highlights how the significant stigma associated with sexual offences is a major obstacle when reintegrating individuals convicted of such crimes into society.
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... While institutional child abuse laws are important to punish perpetrators, prevent reoffending, and increase protection of children from the risk of sexual abuse, the majority of childhood sexual abuse remains unreported and undetected (Fallon et al., 2010;Gilbert et al., 2009;Law and Liberty, 2021;Queensland Government, n.d.). For instance, one study in the United States found that only 5 per cent of perpetrators of sex crimes were on the sex offender registry and that 95 per cent of sex crimes were committed by individuals with no history of sexual abuse (Sandler et al., 2008). Consequently, it has been argued that to stop sexual violence we must focus on preventing it before it occurs (Jeglic & Calkins, 2016). ...
Stereotypes and unconscious bias in institutional child sexual abuse: Barriers to identification, reporting and prevention
Article
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Child sexual abuse within institutional settings has been a major concern for governments around the world for many years. Consequently, prevention policies have been developed, and institutional child abuse laws have been strengthened in many jurisdictions. Legislation is important to prevent reoffending, however, the majority of childhood sexual abuse remains unreported and undetected. While awareness of the failings of institutions to properly identify and respond to child abuse has grown in recent years, barriers to reporting institutional abuse remain understudied, impacting the ability to prevent abuse. One possible reason that prevents workers from identifying and reporting child sexual abuse is that their judgements are vulnerable to stereotypes and unconscious biases about who perpetrates and is victimised by sexual crimes and what constitutes warning signs of sexually abusive behaviours. Research in psychology provides key insights into human reasoning processes that can lead to bias, so workers fail to identify, respond and prevent grooming and child abuse in an organisational context. This paper reviews what is known about the development and maintenance of stereotypes and unconscious bias, their role in institutional sexual abuse, and concludes with a discussion of measures that can be taken to mitigate unconscious bias to prevent child abuse.
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... It is noteworthy that participants' overall favorable ratings of the perceived utility of the practice in reducing sexual offending is not consistent with research findings that have suggested SORN is not an effective policy for reducing sexual harm (Ackerman et al., 2012;Sandler et al., 2008;Zevitz, 2006). Zgoba and Mitchell (2021) conducted the first ever meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of SORN law in reducing recidivism over a period of twenty-five years using 18 studies and 474,640 individuals with sexual offending histories, the largest number analyzed thus far. ...
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The Boundaries of Care and Control: Stakeholder Struggles to Navigate the Challenges of Mandatory Sex Offender Treatment
Article
Full-text available
  • Jan 2024
  • J Health Care Law Pol
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The Influence of Sex Offender Registration and Notification Laws in The United States: A Time-Series Analysis
Article
Full-text available
  • Apr 2008
  • CRIME DELINQUENCY
Although federal legislation for the implementation of sex offender registration and notification systems is now a decade old, empirical studies on the efficacy of this policy are relatively nonextant. This article explores the impact of registration legislation on the incidence of forcible rapes. Using monthly count data of rapes aggregated at the state level, this analysis uses Box–Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models to conduct 10 intervention analyses on the enforcement of Megan's Law. The results of the analyses are mixed on whether the enforcement of sex offender registration had a statistically significant effect on the number of rapes reported at the state level. Although several states showed a nonsignificant increase in the number of rapes, only three states had a significant reduction in rapes. Policy implications are discussed in terms of the efficacy of sex offender registration and whether changes in these laws should be considered.
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Outcome of a Treatment Program for Adult Sex Offenders: From Prison to Community
Article
Full-text available
  • Jan 2003
  • J INTERPERS VIOLENCE
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The Public Safety Potential of Megan's Law in Massachusetts: An Assessment from a Sample of Criminal Sexual Psychopaths
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Full-text available
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This article presents an exploratory assessment of the potential of Megan's Law to prevent subsequent sex offenses in Massachusetts. Using secondary data on 136 criminal sexual psychopaths, the authors found that 27 percent of the sample had a prior conviction that met the requirements of the Massachusetts Registry Law before their most recent sex crime. Of these 36 offenders who would have been eligible for the registry, 12 committed a stranger-predatory sex offense; the remaining 24 offended against family, friends, and coworkers. Assuming a registration and notification system of complete integrity, proactive police warnings could have potentially reached subsequent victims in 6 of the 12 stranger-predatory cases.
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Prevention or Problem
Article
  • Apr 1996
This paper was prepared by the Safer Society Foundation, Inc., regarding the issue of public notification of convicted sexual offenders' release to the community. It does not represent the views or opinions of any other organization or group, professional or otherwise. The Safer Society advocates for community safety, victim restitution and treatment, and quality comprehensive sexual offender treatment. While the Safer Society supports adult sexual offender registration laws in general, it is totally opposed to public notification laws. Presently, 47 states have sexual offender registration laws, 30 states have sexual offender public notification laws, and 15 states have laws allowing indefinite civil commitment of sexual offenders to state mental institutions. This document is designed to assist states considering public notification, or states that have enacted such laws, and to explore related issues and the impact of public notification on the greater community, including citizens, families, victims, and offenders. Numbers preceding the following points do not indicate relative importance, but are used for ease of reference.
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Are U.S. Crime Rate Trends Historically Contingent?
Article
  • Nov 2005
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Conventional explanations of crime rate trends assume that changes in the rates follow a process that is linear and constant, and that draws its inputs from a normal distribution. These features ensure that the present is linearly predictable from the past and that the future will be linearly predictable from the present. Questioning the conventional assumptions, an emerging class of historical contingency theories stresses variation in the crime-generating mechanism. According to contingency explanations, the process underlying the rates is nonlinear or non-normal, or has a structure that shifts over time. Future rate changes can then differ greatly depending on current conditions, and unanticipated developments will limit the accuracy of linear predictions. This article examines U.S. crime rates during the past two-thirds of the twentieth century, and finds little evidence of historical contingency. This supports the standard explanations, but it also raises deeper questions about the forces that produce the rates.
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Megan’s Law: Evaluations of Sexual Offender Registries
Article
  • Jun 2005
This article presents a literature review of the empirical evaluations of sex offender registration and community notification policy, commonly known as Megan’s Law. A background of the social problem that stimulated the policy formation of Megan’s Law is provided. Literature searches presented 12 empirical evaluations on different aspects of Megan’s Law. These evaluations focused on stakeholder, client-centered, goal-oriented, and process evaluations. Many sex offenders found some value to Megan’s Law in both deterring future abuse and when DNA collection was used in reducing false accusations. Implementation of this policy varied both within states and between states. Community members generally support the policy’s concept. Goal-oriented evaluations are not supportive of the policy’s effectiveness. Suggestions for future evaluative research on this policy are given.
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