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Ethiopia's growth prospects in a changing climate: A stochastic general equilibrium approach

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Abstract

This study develops a stochastic economy-wide framework for analyzing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies. For the stochastic analysis, particular attention is paid to the development of a prior subjective distribution of future climate outcomes. The approach is applied to Ethiopia. The results highlight the importance of cumulative processes and rates of growth. In particular, if climate change affects the rate of technical change and the rate of accumulation of capital, the implications become significant over time. Furthermore, analysis of the variability of the components of GDP indicates that aggregate consumption always has a higher coefficient of variation than the other macro aggregates. The burden of adjustment appears to fall more heavily on consumers. Poor consumers are likely to experience increased vulnerability.Research highlights▶ Develops a dynamic CGE framework for economic climate change impact analysis. ▶ Focuses on agricultural productivity impacts in a least-developed-country context. ▶ Takes account of increased frequency of extreme weather events. ▶ Pays particular attention to uncertainty about future climate outcomes. ▶ Provides stochastic simulations of long-run growth prospects for Ethiopia.

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... 2 of 23 mean annual temperature and the number of hot days/nights will increase, and precipitation will be erratic but likely will decline in the country's main crop growing season [19,20]. Such projections imply increasing evaporation and plant transpiration rates, decreasing soil moisture, and shorter crop/grass growing period [2] which all impose imminent risks to the country's rain-fed and subsistence agriculture [20][21][22][23][24] and the macro-economy [25,26]. ...
... However, only a small share of previous studies on the economic impacts of climate change on least developed countries (LDCs) in general and on Ethiopia in particular apply general equilibrium models that are able to capture the induced and feedback effects of climate change on the whole economy. If available, most of the studies that apply general equilibrium models neglect migration, do not include regional effects (region defined as an administrative unit in a federal system), hardly deal with uncertainty of agricultural productivity changes and do not provide clear documentation on how they determine changes in agricultural productivity from crop models they employed e.g., [25,26]. ...
... We use different materials and methods compared with previous studies on the general equilibrium effects of climate change-induced agricultural productivity changes, e.g., [25,26,55]. Nonetheless, whenever the research questions are the same, our general results and conclusions corroborate the findings of the aforementioned studies and other studies on related topics, e.g., [45,66,68]. ...
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Quantifying the economic effects of climate change is a crucial step for planning adaptation in developing countries. This study assesses the economy-wide and regional effects of climate change-induced productivity and labor supply shocks in Ethiopian agriculture. We pursue a structural approach that blends biophysical and economic models. We consider different crop yield projections and add a regionalization to the country-wide CGE results. The study shows, in the worst case scenario, the effects on country-wide GDP may add up to −8%. The effects on regional value-added GDP are uneven and range from −10% to +2.5%. However, plausible cost-free exogenous structural change scenarios in labor skills and marketing margins may offset about 20–30% of these general equilibrium effects. As such, the ongoing structural transformation in the country may underpin the resilience of the economy to climate change. This can be regarded as a co-benefit of structural change in the country. Nevertheless, given the role of the sector in the current economic structure and the potency of the projected biophysical impacts, adaptation in agriculture is imperative. Otherwise, climate change may make rural livelihoods unpredictable and strain the country’s economic progress.
... A wide range of methods, including simple cost-benefit analysis, empirical field survey methods, econometric (Ricardian) models, statistical models, partial and general equilibrium models, Agent Based Models (ABM) and process based -crop simulation models have been applied in examining the impacts of climate variability and change, as well the effectiveness of adaptation options (Nelson et al., 2014;Di Falco and Veronesi, 2014;Troost and Berger, 2014;Berger and Troost, 2013;Wossen et al., 2014;Arndt et al., 2011;Lippert et al., 2009). However, in analyzing the effects of climate variability, there is no doubt that integrated models are needed. ...
... Moreover, agriculture is predominately rain-fed with limited irrigation coverage, which means that shifts in the timing and amount of rainfall impinge on agricultural production and food security (Di Falco and Chavas, 2009;. Smallholder farmers cultivating about 95% of the total crop area and producing more than 90% of Ethiopia's agricultural output are found to be the most affected by climate variability and climate change (Block et al., 2008;Arndt et al., 2011;Milman and Arsano, 2013;Di Falco and Veronesi, 2014). ...
... Ethiopia is highly exposed to climate variability, as agriculture forms the basis of the economy contributing roughly 43% to GDP, 90% of export earning and 80% of employment (MoFed, 2010). Moreover, agriculture is predominately rain-fed with limited irrigation coverage 22 (Arndt et al., 2011), which means that shift in the timing and amount of rainfall will seriously affect agricultural production and food security (Di Falco and Chavas, 2009). Smallholder farmers cultivating about 95% of the total area under crops and producing more than 90% of Ethiopia's agricultural output are found to be the most affected by current and future climate variability (Milman and Arsano, 2013;Arndt et al., 2011;Block et al., 2008). ...
Thesis
Climate variability and poor distribution of rainfall often causes serious agricultural production losses and worsens food insecurity. Given that the direct effects of climate change and variability are transmitted through the agricultural sector, improving farm households capacities to adapt to the adverse effects of climate-related shocks is an important policy concern. This thesis applied a stochastic Agent-based Model (ABM) that is capable of simulating the effects of different adaptation options by capturing the dynamic changes of climate and prices, as well as the dynamic adaptive process of different farm households to the impacts of these changes. The agent-based simulations conducted in this thesis address the special challenges of climate and price variability in the context of small-scale and subsistence agriculture by capturing non-separable production and consumption decisions, as well as the role of livestock for consumption smoothing. To ensure the reliability and usefulness of results, the model was validated with reference to land-use and overall poverty levels based on observed survey values. In particular, the study used disaggregated socio-economic, price, climate and crop yield data to quantify the impacts of climate and price variability on food security and poverty at the household level. Furthermore, the study explicitly captured crop-livestock interactions and the “recursive” nature of livestock keeping when examining the effects of climate and price variability. The thesis additionally examined how specific adaptation strategies and policy interventions, especially those related to the promotion of credit, improved seed varieties, fertilizer subsidy and off-farm employment, affect the distribution of household food security and poverty outcomes. In addition to impacts on household food security and poverty, the study further considered indirect impacts through changes in the price of agricultural inputs and livestock holding. In terms of coping strategies, the simulation results in this thesis show that the effects of climate and price variability on consumption are considerable, but smaller for those households with relatively large livestock endowments. In addition, the study also found that farm households with a large plantation area of eucalyptus were able to cope with the effects of variability. Therefore, our results suggest that self-coping strategies are important but not sufficient and should be complemented with appropriate policy interventions. In terms of policy interventions, the study found that policy intervention through the expansion of credit and fertilizer subsidy along with innovation through the promotion of new crop varieties that are resilient and adapted to local conditions are the most effective adaptation options for the case of Ethiopia. In addition, the simulation results underscore that adaptation strategies composed of a portfolio of actions (such as credit and fertilizer subsidy along with new technologies) are more effective compared to a single policy intervention. For Ghana, the study suggests that if expansion of production credit is complimented by irrigation, it can provide a way to achieve food security under climate and price variability. In order to design a best-fit intervention instead of a ‘one size fits all’ approach, it is important to capture the distribution of effects across locations as well as households. The great strength of this study is its agent-based nature, which enables exploration of how effects are distributed across farm households. The simulation results clearly show that poor farms are vulnerable to climate and price variability, under which they suffer food insecurity, while a small group of wealthy farms are better off due to higher prices achieved when selling crops. The result from this thesis further underscores the need for improving adaptive capacity, as a large proportion of farm households are unable to shield themselves against the impacts of price and climate variability. In what follows, the study further applied standard micro-econometric techniques to examine the role of social capital and informal social networks on consumption insurance and adoption of risk mitigating land management practices. In particular, the thesis provides evidence of the effects of different dimensions of social capital on the adoption of soil and water conservation practices across households holding different levels of risk-aversion. The results of the study underscore that social capital plays a significant role in enhancing the adoption of improved farmland management practices and suggests that the effect of social capital across households with heterogeneous risk taking behaviour is different. Finally, by combining household panel data, weather data, self-reported health shocks and detailed social capital information, the last section is able to analyze how social capital buffers some of the implications of weather shocks.
... To evaluate the direct and indirect impacts climate change can induce on the economy, computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are suited to capture these interactions between the agricultural sector and the rest of the economy and the distributional effects on the different agents in the economy. CGE models have been used to assess the impact of climate change in developing countries (e.g., Arndt, et al., 2011;Calzadilla et al., 2013;Montaud, 2019;Montaud et al., 2017); however, only a few studies have focused on the gender impact of climate change (Arndt & Tarp, 2000;Escalante & Maisonnave, 2022a, 2022b. Our study builds on these gendered studies by using a stochastic approach Arndt, et al., 2011;Arndt & Thurlow, 2015;Thurlow et al., 2012). ...
... CGE models have been used to assess the impact of climate change in developing countries (e.g., Arndt, et al., 2011;Calzadilla et al., 2013;Montaud, 2019;Montaud et al., 2017); however, only a few studies have focused on the gender impact of climate change (Arndt & Tarp, 2000;Escalante & Maisonnave, 2022a, 2022b. Our study builds on these gendered studies by using a stochastic approach Arndt, et al., 2011;Arndt & Thurlow, 2015;Thurlow et al., 2012). Unlike deterministic scenarios that use average changes in crop yields as shocks, stochastic scenarios include the uncertainties associated with climate variability. ...
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Burkina Faso faces significant challenges in terms of gender inequality, especially regarding employment and economic opportunities. Agriculture, the main provider of employment, is threatened by climate change. Our study contributes to the understanding of the gender distributive effects induced by climate change. The climate shock is introduced stochastically to accommodate the uncertainties related to the evolution of the climate and its effects on agricultural yields. An economywide framework is used to capture the backward and forward linkages of the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sectors. Our results show that on average, climate change is slightly unfavourable for women's economic activities compared to men's economic activities. Climate shocks drive down employment and slightly more for women's employment. Furthermore, the simulation shows negative impacts on poverty, with rural households and female-headed households being the most affected. However, the high level of uncertainty surrounding the impact of climate change on agricultural yields makes it difficult to find significant gender bias in the distribution of economic effects of climate change in Burkina Faso. JEL Classification: Q54, Q18, J16, C68, O55
... Temperature variation has an impact on evapotranspiration and rainfall patterns, which in turn have consequences on the stream flow rate, hydrologic cycle, and water demand [9]. Temperature, solar radiation, wind, rainfall, and evapotranspiration are the main climatic variables influencing agricultural production [10]. ...
... Accurately identifying and characterizing climatic trends to acquire important information on what has been changing in the past few decades is thus an important beginning step in climate studies. Different studies have been reported to explore climate variability, trends, and predictions in Ethiopia [3,4,7,9]. However, no studies on climate trends and predictions have been reported in Andracha district, Southwestern Ethiopia. ...
Article
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A good characterization of time series rainfall and temperature trends, variability, and prediction is necessary for many studies in climatology, hydrology, agriculture, and forestry. It provides input for policymakers and practitioners that help to make informed decisions and allows the identification of deviations due to global climate change. This study quantified trends and variability in monthly, seasonal, and annual rainfall and temperature in Andracha district, Southwestern Ethiopia, over 31 years (1987-2017). The Mann-Kendall test and Sen's slope estimate were applied to identify the trends and magnitude over the time series. A pre-whitening approach was applied to eliminate serial correlations in the rainfall and temperature data.The analysis revealed the highest inter-annual variability for December-February rainfall, with a Coefficient of Variation (CV) of 33.46%, followed by September-November and March-May rainfall, with CVs of 17.44% and 15.76%, respectively. The temperature did not show a significant trend through the observed time series at the 95% confidence level, while a mix of positive and negative trends was observed for rainfall. The findings indicate that May monthly rainfall exhibits a statistically significant rising trend, whereas August month and June-August (main rain season) rainfall exhibit statistically significant declining trends. The test did not show a statistically significant trend in annual rainfall and rainfall in the remaining seasons and months. The rates of change in rainfall were found to be 2.88 mmyr-1 ,-2.91 mmyr-1 , and-4.66 mmyr-1 for the May, August, and June-August season, respectively, during 1987-2017. The study indicates that the district is less sensitive to temperature changes but has a decline in rainfall in the main rainy season. The information obtained from this research can help practitioners and policy-makers understand patterns and trends of climate variables for better planning and management of the district.
... Projection of future rainfall suggested that both annual and main season rainfall are most likely to decrease for most of the stations and climate scenarios. Our result agrees with past research findings on future rainfall projections for Ethiopia (Arndt et al., 2011;Kassie et al., 2015). A decrease of Kiremt rainfall by 4 to 20% for the central rift valley was reported during the mid-period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario with respect to 1980 -2009 period (Kassie et al., 2015. ...
... A decrease of Kiremt rainfall by 4 to 20% for the central rift valley was reported during the mid-period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenario with respect to 1980 -2009 period (Kassie et al., 2015. Similar result was also reported by Arndt et al. (2011) indicating that the Kiremt rainfall will decline by 20% and the Bulg rainfall will decline by 5-6% by 2080s relative to the 1960-1990 period. ...
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The generally high temporal and spatial climate variability and change in most parts of Ethiopia, where rainfed farming is the main form of crop production, has been the main cause of food insecurity in significant areas of the country. Spatial variations in selected climate variables were investigated for the great Rift Valley regions of Ethiopia during the baseline (1981-2010) and projected (2021-2100) periods. Baseline climate data from 16 stations that represent different agroecology were obtained from National Meteorology Agency of Ethiopia (NMA) (http://www.ethiomet.gov.et). Corresponding projected data grided over 0.5ᵒ X 0.5ᵒ were retrieved from eight GCM-RCM combinations under two Representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from CORDEX database (http://www.cordex.org). First order Markov chain model was used for missing rainfall data filling. Coefficient of variation and standardized anomaly index descriptors were used in the analysis of climate data for each station. Spatial maps were then generated from station values using the ordinary kriging method of interpolation. The result indicated that rainfall of the study basins showed both spatial and temporal variabilities. The total annual rainfall showed variation in the year-to-year variability ranging from low in the southern half to high in the northern half of the basins. Seasonal rainfall showed high to very high variability which is challenging to rainfed agriculture. For the projected periods, majority of the climate models projected a decline in annual rainfall and increase in temperature. HadGEM2-ES_RCA4 model simulation suggested precipitation change varying from +4.2 to-16% and +3.8 to-18% for near period under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. Mean temperature is projected to rise from +0.7 to +1.25 ºC under RCP4.5 to +0.9 to +1.6 ºC under RCP8.5 across the GRVB in the near future and further warming was projected in the mid and end centuries. Rainfed crop production in the region, which is already impacted by the current climate variability, is likely to be further challenged with future climate change. As a consequence, specific impact-based adaptation strategies are essential to reduce the vulnerability of rainfed crop production in the area.
... Our study complements the existing literature (Arndt et al., 2011;Bosello & Parrado, 2014;Steininger et al., 2016;Elshennawy et al., 2016;Kompas et al., 2018;Dellink et al., 2019;Parrado et al., 2020;Zouabi, 2021). However, unlike most of these studies, we use an intertemporal CGE model, Ireland Environment-Energy-Economy (I3E) (de Bruin & Yakut, 2021). ...
Preprint
This study uses a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse how mitigation and adaptation strategies affect climate change impacts in Ireland. Five impacts—coastal flooding, riverine flooding, heat on labour productivity, human health, and agricultural productivity—are incorporated, along with adaptation costs and benefits for riverine and coastal flooding. Impacts are modelled through increased capital depreciation, reduced labour productivity, healthcare costs, and agricultural productivity shocks. Adaptation involves spending on coastal protection infrastructure through construction. Results indicate that adaptation can cut net climate costs by over half. Secondary general equilibrium impacts and adaptation costs overshadow initial impacts adaptation costs. GDP losses are highest without adaptation (2.6% by 2030), compared to 1.3% with mitigation and 0.6% with optimal adaptation. The study highlights the need for further research on broader impacts and adaptation strategies, emphasizing the importance of considering secondary impacts in policy assessments.
... Additionally, the relatively limited capacity of the region to absorb shocks further exacerbates the situation (Schlenker and Lobell, 2010;World Bank, 2019). In the coming fifty years and subsequent periods, it is projected that climate change will significantly affect the agricultural sector of Ethiopia and its overall societal progress (Arndt et al., 2011;Thomas et al., 2019), highlighting the urgent need for proactive measures to address this concern. ...
... 43,44 . Moreover, information on climate related yield variability, climatic yield potentials and the magnitude of yield gaps due to nutrient and water limitation, and their associated management was scanty 9 . ...
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In this study, we assessed responses of adaptation options to possible climate change scenarios on maize growth and yield by using projections of 20 coupled ensemble climate models under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 by means of a DSSAT model. Growth and yield simulations were made across present and future climate conditions using the hybrid maize variety (Shone). Subsequently, simulated yields were compared with farmer’ average and on-farm trial yields. Results showed that on-farm trial yield (5.1–7.3 t ha⁻¹) lay in between farmers’ average yield (2.9–5 t ha⁻¹) and water-limited potential yield (6.3–10.6 t ha⁻¹). Maize yields achieved in farmers’ fields are projected to decline towards mid-century and further towards the end of the century regardless of the adaptation options compared with baseline in low potential clusters. Results of a combination of adaptation options including February planting, use of 64 kg ha⁻¹ N and conservation tillage provided yield advantage of 5.8% over the 30 cm till under medium GHGs emission scenario during mid-century period at Shamana. Mulching with 5 t ha⁻¹ was projected to produce a 4–5% yield advantage in the Hawassa cluster during the mid-century period regardless of changes in tillage or planting window. Under a high GHGs emission scenario, over 13.4% yield advantage was projected in the Bilate cluster due to conservation tillage and June planting during the mid-century period. In the Dilla cluster, the use of 10 t ha⁻¹ mulch, conservation tillage and early planting (February) would result in a 1.8% yield advantage compared with the control either in medium or high GHGs emission scenarios. Thus, the most promising and least risky practices among simulated strategies were the use of nitrogen and mulching in combination with tillage or planting date adjustment. However, adaptation options remained least promising and highly risky if not integrated with mulching or nitrogen use. Hence, the negative impacts of future climate change and subsequent yield gaps would be reduced by optimizing the application of nitrogen, mulch and their interaction with planting date and tillage in high and low potential areas of maize production.
... 2. Previous study that used the computable general equilibrium model CGE models are now a common technique for empirical analysis and are mostly used for agricultural market analysis globally. CGE models are increasingly becoming a popular tool Economic influence of climate change to assess the possible economic implications of climate change, as witnessed by the surge in similar research around the world (Pradhan and Ghosh, 2019;Fujimori et al., 2016;Böhringer et al., 2021;Bezabih et al., 2011;Mideksa, 2010;Hertel et al., 2010;Arndt et al., 2011;Iglesias et al., 2012;Ochuodho et al., 2012;Aaheim et al., 2012). Because of its economywide and market-based approach, the CGE modeling approach is considered a suitable tool for such studies (Iglesias et al., 2012). ...
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Purpose Evaluating the economic effects of climate change is a pivotal step for planning adaptation in developing countries. For Bangladesh, global warming has put it among the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change, with increasing temperatures and sea-level rise. Hence, the purpose of this paper is to examine how climate change impacts the economy in Bangladesh in the case of climate scenarios. Design/methodology/approach Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and three climate change scenarios, this paper assesses the economy-wide implications of climate change on Bangladesh’s economy and agriculture. It is clear from the examination of the CGE model that the impacts of climate change on agricultural sectors were felt more sharply, reducing output by −3.25% and −3.70%, respectively, and increasing imports by 1.22% and 1.53% in 2030 and 2050, compared to the baseline. Findings The findings reveal that, relative to baseline, agricultural output will decline by a range of −3.1% to −3.6% under the high climate scenario (higher temperatures and lower yields). A decrease in agricultural output results in declines in agricultural labor and household income. Household income falls in all categories, although it drops the most in urban less educated households with a range of −3.1% to −3.4%. On the other hand, consumption of commodities will fall by −0.11% to −0.13%, according to the findings. Although climate change impacts had a relatively small effect on gross domestic product, reducing it by −0.059% and −0.098% in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Practical implications As agricultural output, household consumption and income decline, it will impact the majority of the population’s health in Bangladesh by increasing malnutrition, hidden hunger, poverty, changing food environment, changing physical and mental health status and a changing health-care environment. Therefore, population health and food security will be a top socioeconomic and political concern for Bangladesh Government. Originality/value The examination of the dynamic CGE model is its originality. In conclusion, the evidence generated here can provide important information to policymakers and guide government policies that contribute to national development and the achievement of food security targets. It is also necessary to put more emphasis on climate change issues and address potential risks in the following years.
... However, previous studies on climate change in Ethiopia have often been limited to assessing impacts on current agricultural systems without accounting for potential adaptation. For example, Arndt et al. (2011) estimated the economic impacts of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture using an econometric approach without considering adaptation options. Few studies addressed both climate change impacts and adaptation in Ethiopia, mainly based on household survey approaches (e.g. ...
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1 2 3 Your article is protected by copyright and all rights are held exclusively by Springer Science +Business Media Dordrecht. This e-offprint is for personal use only and shall not be self-archived in electronic repositories. If you wish to self-archive your article, please use the accepted manuscript version for posting on your own website. You may further deposit the accepted manuscript version in any repository, provided it is only made publicly available 12 months after official publication or later and provided acknowledgement is given to the original source of publication and a link is inserted to the published article on Springer's website. The link must be accompanied by the following text: "The final publication is available at link.springer.com". Abstract Exploring adaptation strategies for different climate change scenarios to support agricultural production and food security is a major concern to vulnerable regions, including Ethiopia. This study assesses the potential impacts of climate change on maize yield and explores specific adaptation options under climate change scenarios for the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia by mid-century. Impacts and adaptation options were evaluated using three General Circulation Models (GCMs) in combination with two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and two crop models. Results indicate that maize yield decreases on average by 20 % in 2050s relative to the baseline (1980-2009) due to climate change. A negative impact on yield is very likely, while the extent of impact is more uncertain. The share in uncertainties of impact projections was higher for the three GCMs than it was for the two RCPs and two crop models used in this study. Increasing nitrogen fertilization and use of irrigation were assessed as potentially effective adaptation options, which would offset negative impacts. However, the response of yields to increased fertilizer and irrigation will be less for climate change scenarios than under the baseline. Changes in planting dates also reduced negative impacts, while changing the maturity type of maize cultivars was not effective in most scenarios. The multi-model based analysis allowed estimating climate change impact and adaptation uncertainties, which can provide valuable insights and guidance for adaptation planning. Climatic Change
... Food insecurity in Ethiopia has been caused by climate change, particularly rainfall variability and accompanying droughts (Rosell, 2011;Seleshi & Zanke, 2004). Climate change is projected to increase the number of obstacles and lower the economy's performance (Arndt et al., 2011). Ethiopia was identified as one of the countries most exposed to climatic variability and change in research on mapping poverty and vulnerability in Africa (Thornton et al., 2006). ...
Thesis
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Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) is the fourth major cereal crop in the world, and it accounts for 8% of the total cereal production in Ethiopia based on cultivation location. Farmers may face unpredictable rainfall and drought stress patterns, such as terminal drought, in which rainfall ends before crops reach physiological maturity, posing a challenge to crop production. Furthermore, climate change is expected to reduce crop production/yield due to increases in carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone (O3) concentrations, temperatures, and extreme climate events such as floods, storms, and heatwaves, highlighting the importance of taking action to develop climate-resilient cultivars and secure future crop production. Against this background, a meta-analysis study was conducted to synthesize and summarize to assess the overall effect of elevated CO2 (eCO2), and its interaction with nitrogen (N) and temperature on barley grain yield and yield components. A climate chamber experiment was carried out to identify the impacts of projected CO2 enrichment (eCO2) on a set of landraces and released cultivars of Ethiopian barley. The crop-climate modeling approach was used to simulate future climate change and to identify the impacts of climate change on selected barley genotypes and study locations in Ethiopia. Furthermore, adaption options were simulated and identified. Publication I, aimed to answer how eCO2 and its interaction with N and temperature affects barley yield at a global level. Peer-reviewed primary literature (published between 1991-2020) focusing on barley yield responses to eCO2, temperature, and N were searched on different search engines. The response of five yield variables of barley was synthesized and summarized using a meta-analysis technique. Different experimental factors which might affect the estimation of the response of barley yield to eCO2 were calculated. The results revealed that eCO2 increased barley yield components such as vegetative biomass (23.8%), grain number (24.8%), and grain yield (27.4%) at a global level. Barley vegetative biomass and grain yield were increased under the combination of eCO2 with the higher N level (151-200 kg ha-1) compared to the lower levels. Grain number and grain yield were increased when eCO2 combined with temperature level (21-25°C) this response was not evident. The response of barley to eCO2 was different among genotypes and experimental conditions. Publication II, the genetic diversity of Ethiopian barley was screened under eCO2 enrichment in a controlled exposure experiment. The experiment was conducted at the Institute of Landscape and Plant Ecology, the University of Hohenheim in 2019. A total of 30 (15 landrace and 15 released cultivars) were grown under two levels of CO2 concentration (400 and 550 ppm) in climate chambers. Plant-development-related measurements and water consumption were recorded once a week and yield was measured at the final harvest. A significant increment in plant height by 9.5 and 6.7%, vegetative biomass by 7.6 and 9.4%, and grain yield by 34.1 and 40.6% in landraces and released cultivars, respectively were observed due to eCO2. The effect of eCO2 was genotype-dependent, for instance, the response of grain yield in landraces ranged from -25% to +122%, while it was between -42% to 140% in released cultivars. The water-use efficiency of vegetative biomass and grain yield significantly increased by 7.9 and 33.3% in landraces, with 9.5 and 42.9% improvement in released cultivars, respectively under eCO2. Comparing the average response of landraces versus released Ethiopian barley cultivars, the highest percentage yield change due to eCO2 was recorded for released cultivars. However, higher actual yields under both levels of CO2 were observed for landraces. Publication III, Current and future climate change, its impact on Ethiopian barley production, and adaptation options were simulated using the DSSAT-CERES-Barley model. Climate change scenarios were set up over 60 years using Representative Concentration Pathways (4.5 and 8.5), and five Global Climate Models. The changes in Ethiopian climate and barley production were calculated from the baseline period (1981-2010). Different sowing dates, sowing densities, and fertilizer levels were tested as climate change impact mitigation strategies in a sensitivity analysis. The analysis of a crop-climate model revealed an increasing trend of temperature (1.5 to 4.9 °C) and a mixed trend of rainfall (-61.4 to +86.1%) in the barley-producing locations of Ethiopia. The response of two Ethiopian barley cultivars was simulated under different climate change scenarios and a reduction of yield up to 98% was recorded for cv. Traveler while cv. EH-1493 exhibited a reduction of up to 63%. Even though a similar trend was observed for most of the studied locations, cv. EH-1493 showed a yield gain of up to 14.7% at Holeta. The sensitivity analysis on potential adaptation options indicated that the negative effects of climate change could be mitigated by earlier sowing dates, with a 25% higher sowing density and a 50% higher fertilizer rate than the current recommendation. The results of the present dissertation show the change in the Ethiopian climate and its impact on barley production. Barley production could benefit from eCO2; however, the response varied among genotypes, additional stress, and experimental condition. A reduction of barley grain yield under different climate change scenarios was observed mainly due to increasing temperature. However, the reduction could be minimized through different adaptation options. The information from the current dissertation could be used to identify agro-economic implications of CO2 enrichment and climate variability on yield regarding appropriate genotype selection and adaptation of regional cropping systems (e.g., management and breeding strategies). Further experimental studies assessing crop production, nutritional quality, and adaptation options under multifactor climate conditions should be carried out to increase basic understanding and identify genotypes for future breeding programs.
... The main motivation of this paper is to depict the overall climate change impact on Bangladesh's economy by analyzing the computable general equilibrium (CGE) model in the long run. CGE models are increasingly becoming a popular tool for assessing the potential economic consequences of climate change around the world (e.g., Hertel et al. 2010;Arndt et al. 2011;Bezabih et al. 2011;Aaheim et al. 2012;Iglesias et al. 2012;Ochuodho et al. 2012). The CGE modeling approach is recognized as an appropriate instrument for such research because of its economy-wide and market-based approach (Iglesias et al. 2012). ...
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Climate change is widely acknowledged as a serious threat to global development, and Bangladesh is no exception; without a doubt, global warming has placed Bangladesh among the most vulnerable countries. The motivation behind this paper is to examine the effects of climate change by taking into account the changes in temperature and precipitation over time. This paper first evaluates the climate change impact on crop production by using a crop modeling framework and then constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The result of this study finds that average gross domestic product (GDP) decreases by −6.17% and investment declines by −7.76% due to the climate change impact. The impacts of climate change on rice sectors were felt more intensely, increasing prices by 5.82 and 8.11%, reducing output by −3.08 and −3.7% collectively in 2030 and 2050. The agricultural sectors’ output declined more compared to the manufacturing, mining and gas, construction, service and transportation sectors, which indicates declines in agricultural labor and household income. In conclusion, the impact of climate change by analyzing the computable general equilibrium model in Bangladesh had been paid little attention in the past and this paper tried to fill the gaps and provide policy-makers with crucial information and guide government policies. HIGHLIGHTS Develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model to evaluate how climate change may influence Bangladesh's economy by and large.; Significant decline observed in GDP, consumption, investment, savings, household income, export, and output.; Agricultural sectors shrank more compared to other sectors in the economy.;
... As it has been mentioned by Nigist and Sebsebe [2009], it is also also claimed that crop failures were frequent in recent times in semiarid regions of Ethiopia due to climate change. Arndt et al. [2011] also explained that climate change has posed great challenges to Ethiopian agriculture through increased frequency of drought events as well as unpredictable rains that fall in a shorter but more intense episode. Hence, given multitude of stress factors on semiarid regions in particular, climate change may exacerbate stresses on crop yields and environmental system beyond recovery. ...
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Suitability is a function of land characteristics and crops requirements; and it involves evaluation and matching of the land characteristics with a particular crop requirement. Land suitability analyses are an evaluation and decision problem involving several factors. Accordingly, the main factors considered in this analyses include climate layers (rainfall and temperature during the growing period and length of growing period-LGP), topography (Digital Elevation Models. i.e. altitude data and slope), soil types and soil properties (pH, depth, texture, and drainage). The lands were categorized into not suitable (N), marginally suitable (S3), moderately suitable (S2) and highly suitable (S1). The main aim of this study was to identify lands suitable for selected cereal and oil crops for rain-fed production at national level. The cereal and oil crops considered are tef, bread wheat, durum wheat, food barley, malt barley, highland maize, midland maize, lowland maize, finger millet, linseed, sesame and groundnut. Accordingly, taking into account the total area of the country, the suitability analyses shows that 35631864 (31.5%), 29491560 (26.0%), 27178352 (24.0%), 34290040 (30.3%), 32701044 (28.9%), 21199224 (18.8%), 30546696 (27.0%), 24439684 (21.6%), 42596944 (37.7%), 9328056 (8.2%), 20609484 (18.2%) and 32277764 (28.5%) hectare of the country are moderately to highly suitable for these crops respectively. Lands occupied by forests, woodlands, grasslands, and towns and built-ups (except Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa and Harari) are not excluded in this analyses. Furthermore, these crops are not mutually exclusive since they overlap in locations where they share similar adaptation environments. Hence, it should be noted that the actual available land for each of these crops would be much lower than that is indicated here. These crops are suitable in different regions of the country that shows the potentials for expanding their production.
... Similarly, a study in southern Tigray reported that minimum and maximum temperatures would both increase by up to 6 • C towards the end of this century (Hadgu et al., 2015). Arndt et al. (2011) found that in the 2080s rainfall in Ethiopia will decline by up to 20% during the main rainy season compared to the 1960-1990 period. ...
Article
Climate change is projected to have a global impact that affect food production and security. The objectives of this study were to determine the potential impact of climate change on sorghum yield for rainfed production systems and to evaluate the potential of irrigation and shifting planting dates as adaptation options for two major sorghum production regions in Ethiopia. The Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-Sorghum model was used to simulate the impact of climate change on sorghum yield for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs; RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and for three future periods including the). The Agricultural Model Improvement and Inter-comparison Project (AgMIP) framework was used to select five representative GCMs for hot/dry, cool/dry, middle, hot/wet, and cool/wet climate scenarios. Two climate change adaptation practices including supplemental irrigation at two levels (deficit and full) to the current rainfed production system and shifting planting dates were evaluated. The CSM-CERES-Sorghum model was calibrated and evaluated using eight years of experimental data from Meisso, eastern Ethiopia. The model was then run for Kobo and Meisso under different climate change and crop management scenarios. Based on model evaluation results, the model performed well for simulating sorghum yield (R 2 = 0.99), anthesis (R 2 = 0.86, RMSE = 1.3), and maturity (R 2 = 0.79, RMSE = 4.4). The results showed that the average temperature for Kobo and Meisso is expected to increase by up to 6 • C under RCP8.5 in 2085. For the rainfed production systems without adaptation practices, drought stress is projected to intensify during anthesis, which was reflected by projected yield reductions by up 2 t ha − 1 for the two sites. Full irrigation was effective in reducing moisture stress and, thereby, increasing sorghum yield by up to 3 t ha − 1 for Kobo and 2 t ha − 1 for Meisso. On average, full irrigation resulted in a 1 t ha − 1 yield increase compared with deficit irrigation. Early planting dates also resulted in an increase in yield compared to the baseline planting dates, especially when combined with supplemental irrigation, although late planting was consistently disadvantageous even with supplemental irrigation. This study highlighted that the CSM-CERES-Sorghum model can be effectively used to simulate climate change effects on sorghum yield and evaluate different climate change adaptation practices. The outcomes of this study can also help to implement management decisions towards climate change adaptation for the current subsistence and fragile rainfed crop production system in Ethiopia and similar ecoregions across the globe.
... Climate variability, particularly rainfall variability and associated droughts have been causes for food insecurity in Ethiopia [30,31]. Climate change is expected to pose more challenges and to further reduce the performance of the economy [32]. A study on mapping poverty and vulnerability in Africa identified Ethiopia as one of the country's most vulnerable to climate variability and change [33]. ...
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In the view of seasonal climate variabilities, climate is the primary determinant of agricultural productivity. The El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most important coupled ocean atmosphere phenomenon to cause global climate variability on inter-annual time scale. Furthermore, El-Niño and La-Niño would create severe reduction of rainfall and severe drought, leading to reduction of pasture and water availability that cannot support the livestock population, as a result of this phenomenon, the livestock population showed a decreasing trend drought. The El Niño and La Niña phase are marked by a deep layer of warm ocean water and of cooler than average ocean temperatures across the eastern and central equatorial Pacific region respectively. More than half of the El-Niño and La-Nina events coincided with lower rainfall distribution and reducing livestock population and higher mortality and off-take rate of cattle and sheep over the area. Drought following El Niño caused 50 to 90% crop failure, in the eastern parts of Ethiopia.
... Changes in climate will affect both temperatures Issahaku et al., 2016;Thornton et al., 2011;Waha, Müller, & Rolinski, 2013) and precipitation (Ayanlade et al., 2018;Le Houérou, 1996;Waha, Müller, & Rolinski, 2013). Furthermore, as the primary sector still plays an important socio-economic role in the region, climate change will even affect the socio-economic development of these countries Arndt et al., 2011;Baarsch et al., 2020;Boubacar, 2015;Calzadilla et al., 2013;England et al., 2018;Lokonon et al., 2019;Montaud et al., 2017;Serdeczny et al., 2017). Indeed, agriculture contributes to the population's food security, and is an important source of income and livelihoods, especially in the rural areas, and a significant contributor to the national gross domestic product El Bilali (GDP) thanks to agricultural exports (Diao et al., 2007;FAO & OECD, 2015). ...
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The impacts of climate change (CC) are expected to be higher in developing countries (e.g. Sub-Saharan Africa). However, these impacts will depend on agriculture development and resilience. Therefore, this paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the multifaceted relationships between CC and agriculture in Burkina Faso (BF). A search performed in March 2020 on the Web of Science yielded 1,820 documents and 217 of them were included in the systematic review. The paper provides an overview on both bibliometrics (e.g. journals, authors, institutions) and topics addressed in the literature viz. agriculture subsectors, climate trends in BF, agriculture and CC mitigation (e.g. agriculture-related emissions, soil carbon sequestration), impacts of CC on agriculture (e.g. natural resources, crop suitability, yields, food security) as well as adaptation strategies. BF is experiencing CC as evidenced by warming and an increase in the occurrence of climate extremes. The literature focuses on crops, while animal husbandry and, especially, fisheries are often overlooked. Moreover, most of the documents deal with CC adaptation by the Burkinabe farmers, pastoralists and rural populations. Analysed adaptation options include conservation agriculture and climate-smart agriculture, irrigation, crop diversification, intensification, livelihoods diversification and migration. However, the focus is mainly on agricultural and individual responses, while livelihoods strategies such as diversification and migration are less frequently addressed. Further research is needed on the dual relation between agriculture and CC to contribute to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals. Research results are crucial to inform policies aimed at CC mitigation and/or adaptation in rural BF.
... Despite the importance of the topic, there are limited empirical studies that explicitly examine CO 2 emissions' impact on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Most of the existing studies in Ethiopia (Mideksa, 2010;Arndt et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2011;Gebreegziabher et al., 2011;Ferede et al., 2013) estimated the economic impacts of climate change using computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. These studies focused on examining the economy-wide impact of climate change, focusing on productivity, food security, income distribution and the role of adaptation. ...
... Despite the importance of the topic, there are limited empirical studies that explicitly examine CO 2 emissions' impact on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Most of the existing studies in Ethiopia (Mideksa, 2010;Arndt et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2011;Gebreegziabher et al., 2011;Ferede et al., 2013) estimated the economic impacts of climate change using computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. These studies focused on examining the economy-wide impact of climate change, focusing on productivity, food security, income distribution and the role of adaptation. ...
... The stochastic component represented by oil price influences the value-added function. Therefore, following Harris and Robinson (2001), Karaky (2002), Arndt et al. (2011), Sassi and Cardaci (2013), Seung and Ianelli (2016), and Solaymani (2018), the value-added equation provided by the CGE model is modified as follows: ...
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Uncertainty in global oil prices significantly influences the economic performance of Malaysia as a net oil–exporting country. This study uses an integrated approach, in which a stochastic method is integrated with a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the impacts of likely change in global oil price on energy efficiency and, consequently, on key economic, energy, and environmental variables of Malaysia. The stochastic method, which is related to the Monte Carlo assessment, is based on historical data of global oil price, during 1980–2017, provides probable changes in oil price and their probability of occurrence. Simulation results show that likely changes in global oil price, with a 90% probability, change energy efficiency in Malaysia between − 0.08 and + 0.06% within which the economic performance of Malaysia changes between − 5.22 and 3.00% and household welfare changes between − 4.81 and 2.92%. Furthermore, the energy demand changes between 1.51 and − 2.93% and CO2 emission changes between 4.21 and − 2.03%. However, the emission of other air pollutants changes between − 2.45 and 2.21%. These economic and environmental changes generate a double dividend effect on the Malaysian economy. The value of the rebound effect also changes between 103.21 and 95.79%. Therefore, the paper highlights a strong interconnection among oil price fluctuation, energy efficiency, energy consumption, CO2 emission, and economic growth and thus the necessity for an integrated policymaking method.
... The issue of food security is a worldwide topic. Some studies have indicated that climatic conditions are the primary factors that affect grain production (Wassmann et al. 2009;Arndt et al. 2011;Porter and Semenov 2005). There are many climatic conditions that affect grain production, such as rainfall (Basso et al. 2012;Mitra 2014;Sujariya et al. 2020), temperature (Asseng et al. 2011), and carbon dioxide concentration (Broberg et al. 2019). ...
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The exploratory spatial data analysis (ESDA) method, which includes global spatial autocorrelation and local spatial autocorrelation, is used to analyze the spatial pattern of the annual grain production and annual grain production increment in the Ziya River Basin from 2007 to 2017. Then, the spatial mismatch index is used to analyze the spatial mismatch relationship between the annual grain output and annual precipitation in the Ziya River Basin in 2015. The results showed that (1) the spatial pattern of the annual grain production in the Ziya River Basin is stable, with Low-Low clusters and High-High clusters concentrated on the left and right sides of the Ziya River Basin, respectively. The overall difference in the annual grain production of each district and county increased gradually from 2013 to 2017. (2) The local spatial correlation structure of the annual grain production of adjacent districts and counties in the Ziya River Basin had strong stability, and its space-time transition had a certain path dependence or spatial-locking characteristics. The reason why the High-High clusters are concentrated on the right side of the Ziya River is that there are large cultivated areas, such as the Shijin irrigation district, on the right side of the Ziya River Basin. (3) A spatial change rule “the proportion of grain production is low and the proportion of rainfall is high” changed to “the proportion of grain production and rainfall is balanced” and then to “the proportion of grain production is high and the proportion of rainfall is low” in the Ziya River Basin in 2015. The Shijin irrigation district is mainly located in the area where the spatial mismatch between the annual grain output and the average annual rainfall in the Ziya River Basin in 2015 is assessed as grade V, which indicates that the spatial mismatch between the annual grain output and the annual average rainfall is serious. In summary, grain production in the Shijin irrigation district has been increasing annually, while the supply of water for irrigation has not increased as much. There is a serious deficit between the irrigation water supply and the water demand for grain production in the Shijin irrigation district. Therefore, it is necessary to plan for the development and utilization of surface water and groundwater resources and to adjust the planting structure in the Shijin irrigation district for the purpose of saving water.
... Despite the importance of the topic, there are limited empirical studies that explicitly examine CO 2 emissions' impact on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Most of the existing studies in Ethiopia (Mideksa, 2010;Arndt et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2011;Gebreegziabher et al., 2011;Ferede et al., 2013) estimated the economic impacts of climate change using computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. These studies focused on examining the economy-wide impact of climate change, focusing on productivity, food security, income distribution and the role of adaptation. ...
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Purpose-Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change impacts are exacerbated due to the economy's heavy dependence on agriculture. The Ethiopian Government has started to implement its climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy and reduce CO 2 emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CO 2 emission on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Design/methodology/approach-This study aims to fill these significant research and knowledge gaps using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to investigate CO 2 emissions' impact on agricultural performance and household welfare. Findings-The results indicate that CO 2 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the baseline, real agricultural gross domestic product is projected to be 4.5% lower in the 2020s under a no-CRGE scenario. Specifically, CO 2 emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-traded crops, but not livestock. Emissions also worsen the welfare of all segments of households, where the most vulnerable groups are the rural-poor households. Originality/value-The debate in the area is not derived from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. Therefore, the paper fills this gap and is original by value and examines these issues methodically.
... Despite the importance of the topic, there are limited empirical studies that explicitly examine CO 2 emissions' impact on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Most of the existing studies in Ethiopia (Mideksa, 2010;Arndt et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2011;Gebreegziabher et al., 2011;Ferede et al., 2013) estimated the economic impacts of climate change using computable general equilibrium (CGE) analysis. These studies focused on examining the economy-wide impact of climate change, focusing on productivity, food security, income distribution and the role of adaptation. ...
Article
Purpose Climate change has become one of the most important development challenges worldwide. It affects various sectors, with agriculture the most vulnerable. In Ethiopia, climate change impacts are exacerbated due to the economy’s heavy dependence on agriculture. The Ethiopian Government has started to implement its climate-resilient green economy (CRGE) strategy and reduce CO 2 emissions. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to examine the impact of CO 2 emission on agricultural productivity and household welfare. Design/methodology/approach This study aims to fill these significant research and knowledge gaps using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model to investigate CO 2 emissions’ impact on agricultural performance and household welfare. Findings The results indicate that CO 2 emissions negatively affect agricultural productivity and household welfare. Compared to the baseline, real agricultural gross domestic product is projected to be 4.5% lower in the 2020s under a no-CRGE scenario. Specifically, CO 2 emissions lead to a decrease in the production of traded and non-traded crops, but not livestock. Emissions also worsen the welfare of all segments of households, where the most vulnerable groups are the rural-poor households. Originality/value The debate in the area is not derived from a rigorous analysis and holistic economy-wide approach. Therefore, the paper fills this gap and is original by value and examines these issues methodically.
... As it has been mentioned by Nigist and Sebsebe [2009], it is also also claimed that crop failures were frequent in recent times in semiarid regions of Ethiopia due to climate change. Arndt et al. [2011] also explained that climate change has posed great challenges to Ethiopian agriculture through increased frequency of drought events as well as unpredictable rains that fall in a shorter but more intense episode. Hence, given multitude of stress factors on semiarid regions in particular, climate change may exacerbate stresses on crop yields and environmental system beyond recovery. ...
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Ethiopia is still grappling with the challenges of alleviating vulnerability of the agriculture, agro-pastoral, pastoral communities, fisheries and aquaculture communities who evidently represent the great majority of the population, to food and nutrition insecurity, degradation of natural resources and climate risks. Ethiopian agriculture is predominately low-input low-output system dominated by smallholder producers generating agriculture products that are less surplus, competitive, diverse and sustainable that would be required for the sector and the country thereof to appease relentlessly spiking food and feed gaps and to thrive in the domestic as well as world markets. Contrary to this, Ethiopia is now on the verge of competing the second phase of its five-year growth and transformation plan (GTP-II) which was launched in 2015/2016. The core determination of the plan is to perpetuate the growth and development trajectory attained during the previous phase and thereby ensuring food security and sovereignty, sustainable supply of raw materials for agro-industries and import substitution exports, and increasing livelihood resilience and environmental sustainability. One of the strategic directions envisaged for attaining the overarching objectives is by making Ethiopian agriculture to be climate smart meaning increasing food production, adapting to existing and future climate and reducing GHG emissions as World Bank promote the idea as “triple win". Accordingly, the Ethiopian institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR), guided by its vision and mission, is striving to contribute to the fulfillment of these fundamental national objectives by undertaking research and generating appropriate technologies, information and knowledge on climate, geospatial and biometrics research program. The Climate, Geospatial, and Biometrics research program directorate of EIAR generate results and outputs. However, before the research results that are derived from completed projects and experiments reach the end users, they need to be reviewed, evaluated, and synthesized for their merits of relevance, innovation, practicality, and most importantly for their potential to bring about positive changes in the lives and livelihoods of the end users. Therefore, this publication is dedicated to present results obtained from research activities completed during 2018 under different projects of the directorate. It is the firm belief that the materials contained in the proceeding will serve a broad spectrum of users engaged in climate, geospatial, and biometrics research and academia that may need to use them as reference materials. Before concluding my remarks, I would like to thank the authors, editors, and publication staff for their commendable contributions in producing the proceedings. Diriba Geleti (PhD) Deputy Director General for Research
... Their estimates suggest a total loss of US$4.3 billion over a ten-year period, and reach as high as US$7.1 billion under the worst rainfall scenario. Arndt et al. (2011) develop a stochastic economy-wide framework to analyse climate change-induced economic impacts and evaluate potential adaptation policies in Ethiopia. They extend a recursivedynamic CGE model to allow for stochastic analysis of climate change impacts. ...
... Our study also quantifies CSA's contribution to national development. There are existing studies that assess the economywide effects of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture (Arndt, Robinson, & Willenbockel, 2011;Gebreegziabher, Stage, Mekonnen, & Alemu, 2016;Robinson, Willenbockel, & Strzepek, 2012;Yalew, 2016). Few of these, however, consider investment options in the context of climate change, despite quantifying how climate change affects economic indicators. ...
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Climate‐smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach for transforming and reorienting agricultural systems to support food security under climate change. Few studies, however, quantify at the national scale CSA's economic effects or compare CSA to input‐intensive technologies, like fertilizer and irrigation. Such quantification may help with priority setting among competing agricultural investment options. Our study uses an integrated biophysical and economic modeling approach to quantify and contrast the economywide effects of CSA (integrated soil fertility management) and input‐intensive technologies in Ethiopia's cereal systems. We simulate impacts for 20‐year sequences of variable weather, with and without climate change. Results indicate that adopting CSA technologies on a quarter of Ethiopia's maize and wheat land increases annual gross domestic product (GDP) by an average 0.18 percent (US49.8million)andreducesthenationalpovertyrateby0.15percentagepoints(112,100people).CSAismoreeffectivethandoublingfertilizeruseonthesamearea,whichincreasesGDPbyUS49.8 million) and reduces the national poverty rate by 0.15 percentage points (112,100 people). CSA is more effective than doubling fertilizer use on the same area, which increases GDP by US33.0 million and assists 73,300 people out of poverty. CSA and fertilizer have some substitutability, but CSA and irrigation appear complementary. Although not a panacea for food security concerns, greater adoption of CSA technologies in Ethiopia could deliver economic gains but would need substantial tailoring to farmer‐specific contexts. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
... Climate variability (as it pertains to variability in rainfall and temperature) was observed to be very high in Ethiopia (i.e., 15% to 50% coefficient of variation for rainfall and 1.6 • C annual average rise) based on the long-term evaluation of climate data. This poses major risks to rainfed crop production [14,15] which is the dominant agriculture practice in Ethiopia [16]. The southwestern portion of the country receives about 2400 mm of rainfall, whereas northeastern and southeastern lowland receives less than 500 mm per year [17]. ...
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The conservation agriculture production system (CAPS) approach with drip irrigation has proven to have the potential to improve water management and food production in Ethiopia. A method of scaling-up crop yield under CAPS with drip irrigation is developed by integrating a biophysical model: APEX (agricultural policy environmental eXtender), and a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multi-criteria evaluation (MCE) technique. Topography, land use, proximity to road networks, and population density were considered in identifying potentially irrigable land. Weather and soil texture data were used to delineate unique climate zones with similar soil properties for crop yield simulation using well-calibrated crop model parameters. Crops water demand for the cropping periods was used to determine groundwater potential for irrigation. The calibrated APEX crop model was then used to predict crop yield across the different climatic and soil zones. The MCE technique identified about 18.7 Mha of land (16.7% of the total landmass) as irrigable land in Ethiopia. Oromia has the highest irrigable land in the nation (35.4% of the irrigable land) when compared to other regional states. Groundwater could supply a significant amount of the irrigable land for dry season production under CAPS with drip irrigation for the various vegetables tested at the experimental sites with about 2.3 Mha, 3.5 Mha, 1.6 Mha, and 1.4 Mha of the irrigable land available to produce garlic, onion, cabbage, and tomato, respectively. When comparing regional states, Oromia had the highest groundwater potential (40.9% of total potential) followed by Amhara (20%) and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples (16%). CAPS with drip irrigation significantly increased groundwater potential for irrigation when compared to CTPS (conventional tillage production system) with traditional irrigation practice (i.e., 0.6 Mha under CTPS versus 2.2 Mha under CAPS on average). Similarly, CAPS with drip irrigation depicted significant improvement in crop productivity when compared to CTPS. APEX simulation of the average fresh vegetable yield on the irrigable land under CAPS with drip irrigation ranged from 1.8–2.8 t/ha, 1.4–2.2 t/ha, 5.5–15.7 t/ha, and 8.3–12.9 t/ha for garlic, onion, tomato, and cabbage, respectively. CAPS with drip irrigation technology could improve groundwater potential for irrigation up to five folds and intensify crop productivity by up to three to four folds across the nation.
... However, this study confirmed the massive conversion of these LCLU categories to cropland during the study period. According to Arndt et al. (2011), the most common farming system in Ethiopia is small-scale subsistence rain-fed farming, which accounts for 90% of the country's agricultural output. Farming in the country was characterised with a low level of productivity due to a lack of production technologies, weak extension services, low use of improved seed, and minimal application of pesticides and fertilisers (Deressa, 2007). ...
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Negussie et al.: Assessing dynamics in the value of ecosystem services in response to land cover/land use changes in Ethiopia, East African Rift system-7147-APPLIED ECOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 17(3): 7147-7173. Abstract. Ecosystem services (ES) are essential to human well-being. Assessing dynamics of ES is crucial to shaping the concept of sustainable development and creating public understanding of the status of ES. This study proposes to quantify the change in ES value in response to Land cover/land use (LCLU) changes over the past 33 years in the Rift Valley Lakes Region of Ethiopia. A combined approach of LCLU classification and modified ES value coefficients was employed for quantifying the ES value. Results revealed that approximately USD196.04 ×10 6 (12.4%) of ES value was lost during the study period. Although cropland experienced a dramatic expansion, the total gain in ES value of the cropland was too small to balance out the overall loss. A continuous reduction in values of specific ES functions has also occurred except for food production, biological control, and pollination service function over the last three decades, indicating an apparent deterioration of the fragile Rift Valley ecosystem. Hence, to enhance the continuous supply of ES and economic development, an integrated approach to managing land and water resources is recommended. Moreover, payment for ES is also a potential remedy for ES loss at the regional and local scale.
... On account of this, the Government of Ethiopia (GoE) has recognized the need for a major shift to ensure that Bclimate resilient actions in agriculture are implemented ( FDRE 2015). Ethiopia needs planned/public adaptation in agriculture as the adaptation gap 1 for the observed climate variability and change was already noticeable (e.g., Ali 2012;World Bank 2006); the projected effects of climate change on the agriculture and their repercussions on the macro-economy are considerable (e.g., Yalew et al. 2018;Robinson et al. 2012;Arndt et al. 2011); and the adaptive capacity of smallholder farmers is inadequate (e.g., Berhanu and Beyene 2015; Hadgu et al. 2014;Tessema et al. 2013;Tafesse et al. 2013). ...
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Adaptation costs and finance are topical issues in many developing countries. In this study, we apply a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the economy-wide and regional effects of planned adaptation aimed at maintaining the current level of agricultural productivity in the face of climate change in Ethiopia. We derived the direct costs for planned adaptation in agriculture with respect to three alternative scenarios of climate change-induced productivity shocks of −5%, −10%, and − 15% under three adaptation policy effectiveness scenarios. The results show that such adaptation may require incremental public budget equivalent to 25–100% of the current public expenditure for adaptation relevant measures in agriculture. This will increase urban households’ welfare by 1% to 5% due to the incremental demand for skilled labor types. It will however reduce the government saving by 33% to 173%, and pull factors of production from the private sector which eventually decreases manufacturing output (by 2% to 10%), other private services (by 3% to 13%) and GDP of urbanized regions (by 0.2% to 3%). Such trade-offs may strain the current macroeconomic endeavors of the country, e.g. the aim to reduce fiscal deficits and the effort to foster structural transformation driven by public investment. Policies that promote urban and commercial agriculture may help to reduce the country’s reliance on rain-fed smallholder agriculture (and hence the need for planned adaptation) while fostering structural transformation.
... See e.g.Arndt, Robinson and Willenbockel (2011) andRobinson, Willenbockel and Strzepek (2012) for earlier recursive-dynamic extensions of the standard model. 4 See e.g.Böhringer and Löschel (2004),Böhringer, Löschel and Rutherford (2009),Willenbockel and Hoa (2011). ...
Conference Paper
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The study applies a purpose-built dynamic computable general equilibrium model for Kenya with a disaggregated representation of the power sector to simulate the prospective medium-run growth and distributional implications associated with a shift towards a higher share of renewables in the power mix up to 2025. According to Kenya's current national energy sector development plans, the share of fossil-fuel-based thermal electricity generation in the power mix is scheduled to increase sharply over the next decade and beyond. The overarching general message suggested by the simulation results is that in both countries it appears feasible to reduce the carbon content of electricity generation significantly without adverse consequences for economic growth and without noteworthy distributional effects.
... Effective policy combined with well-timed, appropriate and targeted services are critical for addressing food insecurity, particularly as climate change increases vulnerability on the individual scale and has cumulative national impacts on economic growth (Arndt et al., 2011). The climatic pressures could be worsened by population growth and land-use changes (Diress et al., 2010). ...
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A significant amount of research has been conducted on food security in Ethiopia, yet few reviews and syntheses are available. This paper reviews the research indexed on the Web of Science platform from 2005 until 2016 on food security in Ethiopia. It presents a summary of research, analyzes trends and outlines knowledge gaps as well as potential areas for future research. For improved readability, the review categorized and synthesized research into eight thematic research areas: (1) climate change and rainfall, (2) food science and technical agricultural studies, (3) inequalities, (4) individual-level studies, (5) large-scale land acquisitions and land grabs, (6) natural resource management and water, (7) social services and policy, and (8) vulnerability assessments and methods. The results suggest that while important research is being done, there is a greater need to expand our research on inequalities, to engage with new manifestations of food insecurity, to critically reflect on our measures and metrics of food security, and to engage in interdisciplinary approaches. Regular reviews and syntheses of the literature are required to better enable researchers to build upon existing knowledge and to identify key knowledge gaps and new research directions.
... This study uses a recursive dynamic CGE model, which is an extension of the International Food Policy Research Institute's (IFPRI) standard static model (Lofgren et al., 2002;World Bank, 2008) widely applied to study climate change impacts on Ethiopia's economy (e.g., World Bank, 2008; Arndt et al., 2011;Robinson et al., 2012;Gebreegziabher et al., 2015). A CGE model is a representation of the interactions between producers and consumers in the economy. ...
Article
This paper presents an analysis of the multi-sectoral and distributional economic impacts of rainfall shocks in the Awash river basin in Ethiopia. Using novel disaggregated data on crop production, we estimate the direct impacts of rainfall shocks on agriculture and then use a Computable General Equilibrium model to simulate how these rainfall shocks propagate through the wider economy of the basin under three different climate change scenarios. The basin's economy and expanding agricultural sector are highly vulnerable to the impacts of rainfall shocks. A rainfall decrease scenario could lead to a 5% decline in the basin's GDP, with agricultural GDP standing to drop by as much as 10%. All sectors benefit from greater rainfall amounts. Distributional impacts depend on income group, with poor households accruing greater benefits relative to non-poor households under a scenario of additional rainfall and suffering proportionally lower income losses under a scenario of rainfall decrease.
... Rising temperatures and decreasing rainfall are likely to negatively affect agriculture throughout Africa (Anyah & Qiu, 2012;Cline, 2007;Conway & Schipper, 2011). Eighty-five per cent of Ethiopia's population lives in rural areas and are highly dependent on rain-fed subsistence agriculture (World Bank, 2014), which makes its rural populations extremely vulnerable to climate impacts (Arndt, Robinson, & Willenbockel, 2011;Mideksa, 2010). At the same time over the past decade, Ethiopia has averaged ten per cent annual GDP growth with much of it concentrated in urban areas (World Bank, 2014). ...
Article
Anthropogenic climate change is predicted to have severe impacts on national economies and individual livelihoods, particularly for the world’s poorest populations. Measures to address climate change include both mitigation to reduce emissions and adaptation to climate change impacts. Prior to the Paris Conference of Parties 21 in 2015, few low-income countries had made extensive progress on either mitigation or adaptation. Ethiopia’s Climate Resilient Green Economy (CRGE) policy, introduced in 2011, stands out as an unusual example in its scope to reduce future emissions while also promoting adaptation through economic development. The formation of Ethiopia’s CRGE between 2011 and 2014 demonstrates how a low-income country can rapidly develop a comprehensive policy for climate change using green growth. A case from the Rift Valley, however, illuminates the challenges facing government efforts to have its climate policy reach its predominantly rural population. Using multiple methods of key informant interviews, analysis of policy documents, and survey data collected during three years of study, 2012–2014, the data suggest a confluence of factors contributed to the design and emergence of Ethiopia’s climate policy, notably Ethiopia’s institutional autonomy and capacity. Despite being at the global forefront of climate policy for low-income countries, the reach of the Ethiopian state to implement programmes in the rural sector remains limited. Ultimately, Ethiopia is a bellwether for the combined mitigation and adaptation policy responses needed in many low-income countries to promote sustainable development in the face of climate change.
... All these reports concluded that climate variability is a causal driver of food insecurity, and therefore that climate change represents a threat to future food security. In similar studies (Deressa 2007;Ludi 2009;Arndt et al. 2011;Brown et al. 2011;Anderson and Farmer 2015), this conclusion is drawn from an understanding that water is critical to food production, and in many acute food security events, 'drought' is reported as the cause. However, in each of these studies, no formal definition of what constitutes a drought is given, so it is not necessarily clear that these 'drought' events have the same meteorological characteristics. ...
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Despite large increases in national cereal production in recent decades, Ethiopia continues to experience regular acute food insecurity crises, often associated with drought events. However, the meteorology of these events is poorly defined and local populations frequently experience food insecurity crises in years when national rainfall and cereal production totals are high. Therefore, looking at national, or even to some extent sub-national, rainfall variability is a misappropriation of climate as a causal factor in food insecurity in Ethiopia. The distinction between ‘drought’ as catch-all driver of food insecurity and a more nuanced view of the relationship between rainfall variability and food security is necessary both for addressing food insecurity now and for interpreting long-term climate model projections. The on-going recurrence of acute food insecurity is a feature of the heterogeneity of climate and climate variability in Ethiopia, but only in the context of a food system dominated by smallholder farming and climate-sensitive livelihoods. Climate variability has the greatest adverse impact in the most marginal livelihood zones in the drier east of the country. Increasing the resilience of smallholder farmers and pastoralists to climate variability and improvements in early warning and disaster risk response could reduce the frequency and severity of food security crises. However, unless the food system in Ethiopia undergoes transformational adaptation, food insecurity crises will continue to occur, and the opportunity to achieve zero hunger by 2030 will be missed.
... Smallholder farmers, in their majority operating on 2 ha and less (Dercon and Hoddinott, 2011), cultivate about 95% of the total crop area and produce more than 90% of Ethiopia's agricultural output. They are found to be the most affected by climate variability and climate change (Block et al., 2008;Deressa et al., 2009;Arndt et al., 2011;Conway and Schipper, 2011;Di Falco et al., 2011;Milman and Arsano, 2014;Di Falco and Veronesi, 2014). ...
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Climate variability with unexpected droughts and floods causes serious production losses and worsens food security, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study applies stochastic bioeconomic modeling to analyze smallholder adaptation to climate and price variability in Ethiopia. It uses the agent-based simulation package Mathematical Programming-based Multi-Agent Systems (MPMAS) to capture nonseparable production and consumption decisions at household level, considering livestock and eucalyptus sales for consumption smoothing, as well as farmer responses to policy interventions. We find the promotion of new maize and wheat varieties to be an effective adaptation option, on average, especially when accompanied by policy interventions such as credit and fertilizer subsidy. We also find that the effectiveness of available adaptation options is quite different across the heterogeneous smallholder population in Ethiopia. This implies that policy assessments based on average farm households may mislead policy makers to adhere to interventions that are beneficial on average albeit ineffective in addressing the particular needs of poor and food insecure farmers.
... In this situation, even optimal success in global action towards mitigating climate change will be insufficient to build resilience and compensate for the damage cost (IPCC, 2013;Nelson & Shively, 2014). An effective framework of potential adaptations is essential to eradicate the escalating poverty in developing countries (Arndt, Robinson, & Willenbockel, 2011;UNFCCC, 2015). In the absence of such a consolidated framework of adaptation options, ending poverty will not be possible if climate change and its effects on poor people are not accounted for and managed in development and poverty-reduction policies. ...
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Citation: Belay, A.; Demissie, T.; Recha, J.W.; Oludhe, C.; Osano, P.M.; Olaka, L.A.; Solomon, D.; Berhane, Z. Analysis of Climate Variability and Trends in Southern Ethiopia. Climate
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Recent conclusions that new free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) data show a much lower crop yield response to elevated CO2 than thought previously – casting serious doubts on estimates of world food supply in the 21st century – are found to be incorrect, being based in part on technical inconsistencies and lacking statistical significance. First, we show that the magnitude of crop response to elevated CO2 is rather similar across FACE and non-FACE data-sets, as already indicated by several previous comprehensive experimental and modeling analyses, with some differences related to which “ambient” CO2 concentration is used for comparisons. Second, we find that results from most crop model simulations are consistent with the values from FACE experiments. Third, we argue that lower crop responses to elevated CO2 of the magnitudes in question would not significantly alter projections of world food supply. We conclude by highlighting the importance of a better understanding of crop response to elevated CO2 under a variety of experimental and modeling settings, and suggest steps necessary to avoid confusion in future meta-analyses and comparisons of experimental and model data.
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There is widespread interest in the impacts of climate change on agriculture in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and on the most effective investments to assist adaptation to these changes, yet the scientific basis for estimating production risks and prioritizing investments has been quite limited. Here we show that by combining historical crop production and weather data into a panel analysis, a robust model of yield response to climate change emerges for several key African crops. By mid-century, the mean estimates of aggregate production changes in SSA under our preferred model specification are − 22, − 17, − 17, − 18, and − 8% for maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava, respectively. In all cases except cassava, there is a 95% probability that damages exceed 7%, and a 5% probability that they exceed 27%. Moreover, countries with the highest average yields have the largest projected yield losses, suggesting that well-fertilized modern seed varieties are more susceptible to heat related losses.
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Changes in annual, June–September and March–May rainfall and rainy days herein (defined as a day with rainfall greater than 1 mm) have been analysed based on 11 key stations located in different climatic zones of Ethiopia over the common period 1965–2002. The progressive Mann–Kendall trend test shows that there is no trend in the annual rainfall total, the seasonal rainfall total or rainy days over central, northern and northwestern Ethiopia in the period 1965–2002. In contrast, the annual and the June–September total rainfalls for the eastern (Jijiga, 137 mm/decade), southern (Negele, 119 mm/decade) and southwestern (Gore 257 mm/decade) stations show a significant decline since about 1982. Correlation analysis shows that the decline of rainfall in eastern, south and southwestern Ethiopia is caused by the corresponding persistent warming of the South Atlantic Ocean over the period approximately from 1986 to 2002. The sea-surface temperature (SST) over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean is not significantly correlated with the main rainfall of the semi-arid lowland areas of eastern, southern, and southwestern Ethiopia, except at marginal zones in transition to the Ethiopian Highlands. June–September rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands is positively correlated to the equatorial east Pacific sea-level pressure and the southern oscillation index, and negatively correlated to SST over the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean as expected, confirming again that warm El Niño–southern oscillation episodes are associated with below-average June–September rainfall over the Ethiopian Highlands. Copyright
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As a country whose economy is heavily dependent on low-productivity rainfed agriculture, rainfall trends are often cited as one of the more important factors in explaining various socio-economic problems such as food insecurity. Therefore, in order to help policymakers and developers make more informed decisions, this study investigated the temporal dynamics of rainfall and its spatial distribution within Ethiopia. Changes in rainfall were examined using data from 134 stations in 13 watersheds between 1960 and 2002. The variability and trends in seasonal and annual rainfall were analysed at the watershed scale with data (1) from all available years, and (2) excluding years that lacked observations from at least 25% of the gauges. Similar analyses were also performed at the gauge, regional, and national levels. By regressing annual watershed rainfall on time, results from the one-sample t-test show no significant changes in rainfall for any of the watersheds examined. However, in our regressions of seasonal rainfall averages against time, we found a significant decline in June to September rainfall (i.e. Kiremt) for the Baro-Akobo, Omo-Ghibe, Rift Valley, and Southern Blue Nile watersheds located in the southwestern and central parts of Ethiopia. While the gauge level analysis showed that certain gauge stations experienced recent changes in rainfall, these trends are not necessarily reflected at the watershed or regional levels. Copyright © 2008 Royal Meteorological Society
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Africa is thought to be the region most vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change. Agriculture plays a dominant role in supporting rural livelihoods and economic growth over most of Africa. Three aspects of the vulnerability of food crop systems to climate change in Africa are discussed: the assessment of the sensitivity of crops to variability in climate, the adaptive capacity of farmers, and the role of institutions in adapting to climate change. The magnitude of projected impacts of climate change on food crops in Africa varies widely among different studies. These differences arise from the variety of climate and crop models used, and the different techniques used to match the scale of climate model output to that needed by crop models. Most studies show a negative impact of climate change on crop productivity in Africa. Farmers have proved highly adaptable in the past to short- and long-term variations in climate and in their environment. Key to the ability of farmers to adapt to climate variability and change will be access to relevant knowledge and information. It is important that governments put in place institutional and macro-economic conditions that support and facilitate adaptation and resilience to climate change at local, national and transnational level.
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Recent conclusions that new free-air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE) data show a much lower crop yield response to elevated CO2 than thought previously – casting serious doubts on estimates of world food supply in the 21st century – are found to be incorrect, being based in part on technical inconsistencies and lacking statistical significance. First, we show that the magnitude of crop response to elevated CO2 is rather similar across FACE and non-FACE data-sets, as already indicated by several previous comprehensive experimental and modeling analyses, with some differences related to which “ambient” CO2 concentration is used for comparisons. Second, we find that results from most crop model simulations are consistent with the values from FACE experiments. Third, we argue that lower crop responses to elevated CO2 of the magnitudes in question would not significantly alter projections of world food supply. We conclude by highlighting the importance of a better understanding of crop response to elevated CO2 under a variety of experimental and modeling settings, and suggest steps necessary to avoid confusion in future meta-analyses and comparisons of experimental and model data.
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The economic impact of climate change is usually measured as the extent to which the climate of a given period affects social welfare in that period. This static approach ignores the dynamic effects through which climate change may affect economic growth and hence future welfare. In this paper we take a closer look at these dynamic effects, in particular saving and capital accumulation. With a constant savings rate, a lower output due to climate change will lead to a proportionate reduction in investment which in turn will depress future production (capital accumulation effect) and, in almost all cases, future consumption per capita. If the savings rate is endogenous, forward looking agents would change their savings behavior to accommodate the impact of future climate change. This suppresses growth prospects in absolute and per capita terms (savings effect). In an endogenous growth context, these two effects may be exacerbated through changes in labour productivity and the rate of technical progress. Simulations using a simple climate-economy model suggest that the capital accumulation effect is important, especially if technological change is endogenous, and may be larger than the direct impact of climate change. The savings effect is less pronounced. The dynamic effects are more important, relative to the direct effects, if climate change impacts are moderate overall. This suggests that they are more of a concern in developed countries, which are believed to be less vulnerable to climate change. The magnitude of dynamic effects is not sensitive to the choice of discount rate.
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Complex socio-ecological systems like the food system are unpredictable, especially to long-term horizons such as 2050. In order to manage this uncertainty, scenario analysis has been used in conjunction with food system models to explore plausible future outcomes. Food system scenarios use a diversity of scenario types and modelling approaches determined by the purpose of the exercise and by technical, methodological and epistemological constraints. Our case studies do not suggest Malthusian futures for a projected global population of 9 billion in 2050; but international trade will be a crucial determinant of outcomes; and the concept of sustainability across the dimensions of the food system has been inadequately explored so far. The impact of scenario analysis at a global scale could be strengthened with participatory processes involving key actors at other geographical scales. Food system models are valuable in managing existing knowledge on system behaviour and ensuring the credibility of qualitative stories but they are limited by current datasets for global crop production and trade, land use and hydrology. Climate change is likely to challenge the adaptive capacity of agricultural production and there are important knowledge gaps for modelling research to address.
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This study uses the Ricardian approach to analyze the impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture and to describe farmer adaptations to varying environmental factors. The study analyzes data from 11 of the country's 18 agro-ecological zones, representing more than 74 percent of the country, and survey of 1,000 farmers from 50 districts. Regressing of net revenue on climate, household, and soil variables show that these variables have a significant impact on the farmers'net revenue per hectare.The study carries out a marginal impact analysis of increasing temperature and changing precipitation across the four seasons. In addition, it examines the impact of uniform climate scenarios on farmers'net revenue per hectare. Additionally, it analyzes the net revenue impact of predicted climate scenarios from three models for the years 2050 and 2100. In general, the results indicate that increasing temperature and decreasing precipitation are both damaging to Ethiopian agriculture. Although the analysis did not incorporate the carbon fertilization effect, the role of technology, or the change in prices for the future, significant information for policy-making can be extracted.
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The yield and quality of food crops is central to the well being of humans and is directly affected by climate and weather. Initial studies of climate change on crops focussed on effects of increased carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) level and/or global mean temperature and/or rainfall and nutrition on crop production. However, crops can respond nonlinearly to changes in their growing conditions, exhibit threshold responses and are subject to combinations of stress factors that affect their growth, development and yield. Thus, climate variability and changes in the frequency of extreme events are important for yield, its stability and quality. In this context, threshold temperatures for crop processes are found not to differ greatly for different crops and are important to define for the major food crops, to assist climate modellers predict the occurrence of crop critical temperatures and their temporal resolution. This paper demonstrates the impacts of climate variability for crop production in a number of crops. Increasing temperature and precipitation variability increases the risks to yield, as shown via computer simulation and experimental studies. The issue of food quality has not been given sufficient importance when assessing the impact of climate change for food and this is addressed. Using simulation models of wheat, the concentration of grain protein is shown to respond to changes in the mean and variability of temperature and precipitation events. The paper concludes with discussion of adaptation possibilities for crops in response to drought and argues that characters that enable better exploration of the soil and slower leaf canopy expansion could lead to crop higher transpiration efficiency.
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Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.
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Measurement of the likely magnitude of the economic impact of climate change on African agriculture has been a challenge. Using data from a survey of more than 9,000 farmers across 11 African countries, a cross-sectional approach estimates how farm net revenues are affected by climate change compared with current mean temperature. Revenues fall with warming for dryland crops (temperature elasticity of - 1.9) and livestock ( - 5.4), whereas revenues rise for irrigated crops (elasticity of 0.5), which are located in relatively cool parts of Africa and are buffered by irrigation from the effects of warming. At first, warming has little net aggregate effect as the gains for irrigated crops offset the losses for dryland crops and livestock. Warming, however, will likely reduce dryland farm income immedia-tely. The final effects will also depend on changes in precipitation, because revenues from all farm types increase with precipitation. Because irrigated farms are less sensitive to climate, where water is available, irrigation is a practical adaptation to climate change in Africa. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.
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Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are used widely in policy analysis. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to and facilitate the use of CGE models. The paper includes a detailed presentation of a “standard” CGE model (an equation-by-equation description) and its required database. It incorporates features developed in recent years in research projects conducted at IFPRI. These features, which are of particular importance in developing countries, include household consumption of non-marketed (or “home”) commodities, explicit treatment of transaction costs for commodities that enter the market sphere, and a separation between producing activities and commodities that permits any activity to produce multiple commodities and any commodity to be produced by multiple activities. The paper discusses the implementation of the model in GAMS (the General Algebraic Modeling System) and is accompanied by a self-extracting zip file, which includes the GAMS files for the model, sample databases, simulations, solution reports, and a SAM aggregation program. Although the paper provides a standardized framework for analysis, the analyst is not forced to make “one-size-fits-all” assumptions. The GAMS code is written in a manner that gives the analyst considerable flexibility in model specification.
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The authors measure the economic impact of climate on land prices. Using cross-sectional data on climate, farmland prices, and other economic and geophysical data for almost 3,000 counties in the United States, they find that higher temperatures in all seasons except autumn reduce average farm values, while more precipitation outside of autumn increases farm values. Applying the model to a global-warming scenario shows a significantly lower estimated impact of global warming on U.S. agriculture than the traditional production-function approach and, in one case, suggests that, even without carbon dioxide fertilization, global warming may have economic benefits for agriculture. Copyright 1994 by American Economic Association.
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In textbook expositions of the equity-premium, riskfree-rate and equity-volatility puzzles, agents are sure of the economy's structure while growth rates are normally distributed. But because of parameter uncertainty the thin-tailed normal distribution conditioned on realized data becomes a thick-tailed Student-t distribution, which changes the entire nature of what is considered "puzzling" by reversing every inequality discrepancy needing to be explained. This paper shows that Bayesian updating of unknown structural parameters inevitably adds a permanent tail-thickening effect to posterior expectations. The expected-utility ramifications of this for asset pricing are strong, work against the puzzles, and are very sensitive to subjective prior beliefs—even with asymptotically infinite data. (JEL D84, G12)
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Climate change is likely to harm developing economies that generate major portion of their GDP from climate sensitive sectors. This paper computes economy-wide impact of climate change and its distributional consequence with the help of a sector wise disaggregated general equilibrium model using Ethiopia as a case. The projected climate shock reduces output in the sector with the strongest forward and backward linkage to the rest of the economy and redistributes income by changing the returns to inputs owned by various agents. The results suggest that climate change will make the prospect of economic development harder in at least two ways: first, by reducing agricultural production and output in the sectors linked to the agricultural sector, which is likely to reduce Ethiopia's GDP by about 10% from its benchmark level; and second, by raising the degree of income inequality in which the Gini-coefficient increases by 20%, which is likely to further decrease economic growth and fuel poverty. Thus, climate change is expected to increase the fraction of people in poverty by reducing the size of the total pie and redistributing it more unevenly.
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Accumulating evidence suggests that agricultural production could be greatly affected by climate change, but there remains little quantitative understanding of how these agricultural impacts would affect economic livelihoods in poor countries. Here we consider three scenarios of agricultural impacts of climate change by 2030 (impacts resulting in low, medium, or high productivity) and evaluate the resulting changes in global commodity prices, national economic welfare, and the incidence of poverty in a set of 15 developing countries. Although the small price changes under the medium scenario are consistent with previous findings, we find the potential for much larger food price changes than reported in recent studies which have largely focused on the most likely outcomes. In our low productivity scenario, prices for major staples rise 10-60% by 2030. The poverty impacts of these price changes depend as much on where impoverished households earn their income as on the agricultural impacts themselves, with poverty rates in some non-agricultural household groups rising by 20-50% in parts of Africa and Asia under these price changes, and falling by equal amounts for agriculture-specialized households elsewhere in Asia and Latin America. The potential for such large distributional effects within and across countries emphasizes the importance of looking beyond central case climate shocks and beyond a simple focus on yields - or highly aggregated poverty impacts.
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Abstract in HTML and technical report in PDF available on the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://mit.edu/globalchange/www/). Multiple environmental changes will have consequences for global vegetation. To the extent that crop yields and pasture and forest productivity are affected there can be important economic consequences. We examine the combined effects of changes in climate, increases in carbon dioxide, and changes in tropospheric ozone on crop, pasture, and forest lands and the consequences for the global and regional economies. We examine scenarios where there is limited or little effort to control these substances, and policy scenarios that limit emissions of CO2 and ozone precursors. We find the effects of climate and CO2 to be generally positive, and the effects of ozone to be very detrimental. Unless ozone is strongly controlled damage could offset CO2 and climate benefits. We find that resource allocation among sectors in the economy, and trade among countries, can strongly affect the estimate of economic effect in a country. This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors.
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Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by approximately 15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling "millions of undernourished people" as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability.
Understanding the regional impacts of climate change. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper No.90
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Warren, R., Arnell, N., Nicholls, R.J., Levy, P., Price, J., 2006. Understanding the regional impacts of climate change. Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research Working Paper No.90. UEA, Norwich.
Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No.25. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa
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Deressa, T.T., 2006. Measuring the economic impact of climate change on Ethiopian agriculture: Ricardian approach. CEEPA Discussion Paper No.25. Centre for Environmental Economics and Policy in Africa, Pretoria.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study. Columbia University, http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia
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Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., 2006. Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study. Columbia University, http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu. Schlenker, W., Lobell, D.B., 2010. Robust negative impacts of climate change on African agriculture. Environmental Research Letters 5 (1), 014010. Seleshi, Y., Zanke, U., 2004. Recent changes in rainfall and rainy days in Ethiopia. International Journal of Climatology 24, 973–983.
Ethiopia: a country study on the economic impacts of climate change
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Ahmed, H., Arndt, C., Robinson, S., Willenbockel, D., 2009. Ethiopia: a country study on the economic impacts of climate change. World Bank Report No.46946-ET. The World Bank, Washington, DC.
Social Accounting Matrix for Ethiopia
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Ahmed, H., Amogne, A., Bekele, G., Deriba, G., Teferra, B., Robinson, S., Willenbockel, D., 2008. Social Accounting Matrix for Ethiopia 2001/2002 (EFY 1994): Data Sources and Compilation Process. Ethiopian Development Research Institute, Addis Ababa.
Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavaro 94
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Bosello, F., Zhang, J., 2005. Assessing Climate Change Impacts: Agriculture. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei Nota di Lavaro 94.2005.
National Accounts Statistics of Ethiopia: The 1999 EFY Update Estimates. Central Statistical Agency, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia
CSA, 2008. National Accounts Statistics of Ethiopia: The 1999 EFY Update Estimates. Central Statistical Agency, Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa.
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: statistical appendix
IMF, 2008. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia: statistical appendix. IMF Country Report 08/260. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.
Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study
  • C Rosenzweig
  • A Iglesias
Rosenzweig, C., Iglesias, A., 2006. Potential Impact of Climate Change on World Food Supply: Data Sets from a Major Crop Modeling Study. Columbia University, http://beta.sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu.