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Game-related statistics that discriminated winning and losing teams from the Spanish Men's Professional Basketball Teams
Abstract and Figures
The purpose of the present study was to analyse men's basketball competitions, trying to identify which game-related statistics allow to discriminate winning and losing teams. The sample used corresponded to 306 games from the 2004-2005 Regular Season of the Spanish Men's Professional League. The game-related statistics gathered were: 2 and 3 points field-goals (both successful and unsuccessful), free-throws (both successful and unsuccessful), offensive and defensive rebounds, blocks, assists, fouls, turnovers and steals. The data were analysed in two groups: balanced games (final score differences equal or below 12 points) and unbalanced games (final score differences above 12 points). Discriminant analysis allowed to conclude the following: (i) in balanced games, the variable that best differentiate both groups were the defensive rebounds; (ii) in unbalanced games, the variables that discriminate between both groups were the successful 2 points field-goals, the defensive rebounds and the assists; and (iii) in all games, the statistical analysis identified two variables that discriminate winning and losing teams (defensive rebounds and assists). The defensive rebounds were the only game-related statistic that discriminates both groups in all performed analysis. Coaches and players should be aware of these different profiles in order to increase knowledge about game cognitive and motor solicitation and, therefore, to enhance specificity at the time of practice and game planning.
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... Notably, shooting is highlighted as the game's most decisive action, as it is the primary means of scoring points (Cabarkapa et al., 2022). Its effectiveness directly impacts the scoreboard and can determine the game's outcome, as the team that scores the most points ultimately wins (Csátaljay et al., 2009;Ibáñez et al., 2009;Lapresa et al., 2014;Tian, 2016;Vencúrik et al., 2021;Cabarkapa et al., 2022;Gómez et al., 2008;Leicht et al., 2015;Lorenzo et al., 2010;Puente et al., 2015). Thus, teams strive to execute shots under the best possible conditions to maximize their effectiveness during the game (Bar-Eli et al., 2006;Cárdenas & Alarcón, 2010;Quílez et al., 2020;Skinner, 2012). ...
... Nor has it been analysed whether the number of ball reversals facilitates a greater number of shots by reducing opposition or if these reversals improve the quality of shooting situations, thereby increasing effectiveness. Additionally, most studies related to performance indicators in basketball have focused on men's competitions (Doğan et al., 2016;Gómez et al., 2008;Ibáñez et al., 2003), where field goal percentage and defensive rebounds have been identified as key factors in team victories. However, studies on women's basketball are scarce and do not allow for solid conclusions due to the limited amount of research. ...
... The results of this study align with previous research highlighting that ball reversal, by incorporating key offensive principles of team sports, enhances a team's offensive performance by increasing the number of shot attempts (Courel et al., 2016). In this context, numerous studies have emphasized that shot attempts represent one of the most reliable performance indicators during competition (Cabarkapa et al., 2022;Gómez et al., 2008;Leicht et al., 2015;Mikołajec et al., 2021). Similarly, the systematic review by Canuto et al. (2022) on key statistics in basketball wins and defeats concluded that teams with higher success rates tend to attempt more shots. ...
The aim of the study was to determine whether ball reversal is a performance indicator in women’s basketball. Its influence on various in-game performance variables (shots, rebounds, opposition, etc.) was analysed. A total of 6007 ball possessions from 64 games in the 2020/2021 season of the Liga Femenina Endesa, organized by the Spanish Basketball Federation (FEB), were analysed. Observational methodology was employed for defining and recording variables, and data analysis was conducted using descriptive statistics, the Chi-Square test, and one-way ANOVA. The results revealed that ball reversal had a significant impact on possession outcomes (p < 0.001). Specifically, it was associated with a higher number of shot attempts and points scored, an increase in offensive rebounds, and a reduction in turnovers. Incorporating ball reversal during possessions enhances the probability of success, translating into a greater number of points per possession. These findings suggest that ball reversal can thus be considered a performance indicator in women's basketball.
... The evolution of these variables over the years was also analyzed. Previous research has suggested that defensive performance indicators underscore the importance of the variables discussed in this study [27][28][29]. Many studies have explored the defensive and offensive variables. ...
... Previous research has suggested that defensive performance indicators underscore the importance of the variables discussed in this study [27][28][29]. Many studies have explored the defensive and offensive variables. ...
... This conclusion is consistent with those of previous studies. For instance, a study examining performance indicators that distinguish winning and losing teams in the Spanish Basketball League identified defensive rebounds as a critical variable affecting game outcomes [27]. Similarly, there are studies highlighting the significant impact of defensive rebounds on basketball success [33]. ...
This study aimed to determine changes in defensive strategies over the past decade in the National Basketball Association (NBA) and identify the most crucial factors for winning games. The study analyzed all games where the 30 NBA teams played over 11 seasons (13,530 games) and created outcome statistics based on win–loss records. Five defensive variables (OREB [offensive rebound], DREB [defensive rebound], TREB [total rebound], ST [steal] and BLK [block]) were compared, revealing that OREB (p < 0.03), DREB (p < 0.001), TREB (p < 0.001), ST (p < 0.001) and BLK (p < 0.001) occur significantly in winning teams. Also, it has been observed that the changes over the years in the variables OREB (p < 0.01), DREB (p < 0.01), TREB (p < 0.01) and ST (p < 0.01) are statistically significant. However, there was no significant difference in the BLK variable over the years (p = 0.24). The impact of defensive variables on winning and their factor loadings are as follows: DREB (λ = 0.50), ST (λ = 0.15), TREB (λ = 0.10), BLK (λ = 0.08) and OREB (λ = 0.06). Coaches can use these findings on defensive variables to strategize and counter opponents during games.
... A considerable amount of scientific literature has been focused on examining game-related statistics that discriminate winning from losing game outcomes on a professional level of basketball competition (3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9). When examining 306 regular season games played in ACB Spanish Basketball League, Garcia et al. (6) found that winning teams dominated in defensive rebounds, assists, and successful two-and three-point field goals. ...
... Game-related statistic with the greatest discriminating power in securing the desired game outcome was defensive rebounds, followed by field goal and free-throw shooting percentage (11). Also, defensive rebounds were found to be a key performance parameter differentiating between winning and losing teams during balanced games (i.e., final score ≤12 points), and successful two-point field goals, defensive rebounds, and assists during unbalanced games (i.e., final score >12 points) (9). Furthermore, a recently published study examined game-related statistics at the National Basketball Association (NBA) competitive level across a three-season span (2016-2019) (3). ...
... Winning teams attempted and made more free-throw, two-and three-point shots across all quarters when compared to the losing teams (5). In addition, similar observations were made by Gomez et al. (9) when examining teams competing at ACB Spanish Basketball League. While no significant differences were noted for shots attempted from the free-throw line, winning teams attained more successful and less unsuccessful two-and threepoint shooting attempts across 306 games played during a regular season span (9). ...
The purpose of the present study was to examine differences in game-related statistics between winning and losing game outcomes and determine which performance parameters have the greatest impact in classifying winning from losing game outcomes at the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) Division-I men's basketball level of competition. The data scraping technique was used to obtain publicly available data over a 2018–2019 season span. The total number of games examined was 5,147. Independent t -tests were used to examine statistically significant differences between winning and losing game outcomes, while a full model discriminant function analysis was used to determine the relative contribution of each game-related statistic and its ability to classify winning from losing game outcomes ( p < 0.05). Alongside scoring a greater number of points at the end of the game, the findings of the present study indicate that winning teams: (a) attempted and made more field goals, three-point, and free-throw shots, (b) accumulated more defensive and total rebounds, assists, steals, and blocks, (c) had fewer turnovers and personal fouls, and (d) secured greater field goal, three-point, and free-throw shooting percentage. Moreover, the top three performance parameters discriminating winning from losing game outcomes were field goal percentage, defensive rebounds, and assists, accounting for 16.8%, 12.2%, and 12.0% of the total percentage of explained variance, respectively (i.e., 41.0% combined). Overall, these findings support the expected roles of offensive and defensive game-related statistics and provide further insight into how they work together to optimize the chances of securing the desired game outcome.
... ny studies which identified that assists and turnovers, especially assists, are KPIs in basketball (Dong et al., 2021;M. A. Gómez et al., 2014;S. J. Ibáñez et al., 2008;Stavropoulos et al., 2021). Similarly, our results for defensive rebounds corroborate previous basketball literature on the importance of defensive rebounds (Giovanini et al., 2021;M.-A. Gómez et al., 2008b), which are closely linked to the success of the winning team (M.-A. Gómez et al., 2008b;S. Ibáñez et al., 2003;Sampaio et al., 2006;Trninic et al., 2002), especially in evenly matched games (Csataljay et al., 2009) and playoff games (Garcia-Rubio et al., 2013). Steals can help a team regain possession of the ball, limiting the opponents ...
... Gómez et al., 2008b), which are closely linked to the success of the winning team (M.-A. Gómez et al., 2008b;S. Ibáñez et al., 2003;Sampaio et al., 2006;Trninic et al., 2002), especially in evenly matched games (Csataljay et al., 2009) and playoff games (Garcia-Rubio et al., 2013). ...
The purpose of this study was to (i) determine the effect of KPIs on game outcomes for NBA teams; and (ii) compare the result difference between multiple linear regression (MLR) and quantile regression (QR) analysis. Data were collected for a total of 2,322 games in the 2020–2022 NBA regular seasons and play-in games. QR and MLR were adopted to analyse the relationship between KPIs and game outcomes. The results revealed that game outcomes were associated with two-point percentage, three-point percentage, free-throw percentage, offensive rebounds, assists, defensive rebounds, turnovers, steals, fouls, and game pace, but not with blocks, opponent quality, and game location. Differences were reported between MLR and QR analysis in free-throw percentage and fouls. This study showed that the QR analysis is more sensitive to identifying the effect of KPIs on game outcomes than MLR. The insights provided by QR analysis can guide more effective team strategies and player selection, emphasising the critical need for sports analysts and practitioners to consider the appropriate statistical methods when evaluating performance indicators in basketball and other sports.
... Traditional studies investigating the disparities between winning and losing teams typically cite various statistical factors found in box scores (Gomez et al., 2008;Ibáñez et al., 2009). This study suggests that successful teams excel in off-ball movement, resulting in higher efficiency in points per possession. ...
This study aimed to identify structural differences in offensive styles between winning and losing teams in women’s basketball. The focus was on offense types, distribution, efficiency, and finishing actions. Data from 12 games in the Danish women’s 2020–21 season involving five teams were analyzed. A total of 1915 possessions were categorized into four basic offense types and 13 finishing actions using notational analysis. The findings revealed that a) losing teams utilized shots by the ball handler in pick-and-roll situations statistically significantly more; b) winning teams demonstrated significantly higher efficiency in finishing actions such as off-ball screens, cuts, isolation plays facing the basket, and miscellaneous situations; and c) in set plays, winning teams were superior in cuts and off-ball screen categories. These results accentuate differences in finishing action preferences between winning and losing teams, with winning teams showing dominant play without the ball, exemplified by the higher efficiency in cuts and off-ball categories. Understanding these differences can support coaching practices and professional strategies in women’s basketball. Key Words: women’s basketball, finishing action, offense, performance analysis.
... These adjustments are likely an effort to avoid being blocked, as has been noted in prior research [15]. The quicker release time observed in the defensive conditions aligns with previous findings that suggest players adopt faster, more compact shooting motions when under pressure [37]. Despite these changes, the overall shooting success rate did not significantly differ between defensive and non-defensive conditions, possibly due to the relatively low defensive pressure in this study (the defensive player did not contact and jump to block the shooter) in this study. ...
This study examines the influence of fatigue and defensive pressure on the kinematic parameters of the three-point jump shot in basketball. Fourteen male collegiate basketball players (age: 21 ± 3 years old, body height: 186.35 ± 7.02 cm, body mass: 82.20 ± 10.99) participated in the study. Each participant performed three-point jump shots under four conditions: without defense, with defense, without defense after a fatigue protocol, and with defense after a fatigue protocol. Kinematic data were collected using the Xsens MVN inertial suit system and the OptoJump Next system. The analysis focused on various parameters including jump height, center of mass, release height, shoulder angle, and segment velocities. The repeated-measures ANOVA was used to observe the differences between each shot condition (fatigue, defense). Results indicated significant changes in the kinematic parameters due to both fatigue and defensive pressure. Fatigue notably changed shooting performance, affecting jump height and release mechanics. The defensive pressure altered shooting technique, leading to quicker ball release and higher release points. These findings highlight the importance of incorporating fatigue and defensive scenarios in training, suggesting that coaches develop more targeted training plans to improve performance under conditions of fatigue and defensive pressure.
... The results indicated that Field goal percentage consistently holds the top spot in importance across three distinct periods within the game, corroborating prior studies that have emphasized the critical role of Field goal percentage in clinching victories in basketball contests [37][38][39][40]. Previously, Gómez et al. [41] (2008) and Ibáñez et al. [42] (2019) have indicated that the essence of basketball is striving to score more points than the opponent. A higher Field goal percentage can lead to a greater scoring advantage over the adversary, thus increasing the likelihood of winning the games and competitions. ...
This study investigated the application of artificial intelligence in real-time prediction of professional basketball games, identifying the variations within performance indicators that are critical in determining the outcomes of the games. Utilizing games data from the NBA seasons 2021 to 2023 as the sample, the study constructed a real-time predictive model for NBA game outcomes, integrating the machine learning XGBoost and SHAP algorithms. The model simulated the prediction of game outcomes at different time of games and effectively quantified the analysis of key factors that influenced game outcomes. The study’s results demonstrated that the XGBoost algorithm was highly effective in predicting NBA game outcomes. Key performance indicators such as field goal percentage, defensive rebounds, and turnovers were consistently related to the outcomes at all times during the game. In the first half of the game, assists were a key indicator affecting the outcome of the game. In the second half of the games, offensive rebounds and three-point shooting percentage were key indicators affecting the outcome of the games. The performance of the real-time prediction model for NBA game outcomes, which integrates machine learning XGBoost and SHAP algorithms, is found to be excellent and highly interpretable. By quantifying the factors that determine victory, it is able to provide significant decision support for coaches in arranging tactical strategies on the court. Moreover, the study provides reliable data references for sports bettors, athletes, club managers, and sponsors.
... The value of the assists to have more odds to win a basketball game has been traditionally defined in previous studies in Europe [20,32] and in the NBA league [5,33]. This fact should be related to a positive end of a possession (because an assist implies a basket) and a greater cohesion of the teammates to share the ball if an advantage has been created when the offensive players outnumber their opponents [34]. However, there is still some controversy about its importance by itself, or just because it is linked to a successful possession, because some spatial or numeric advantages could also be successfully resolved by the ballhandler if they find the opportunity to end the possession through an easy basket instead of a pass to assist a teammate [5,35]. ...
The aim of this study was to assess pre-shot combinations and game-location influence, together with the traditional game-related statistics to evaluate their impact in the performance of the teams in the Asociación de Clubs de Baloncesto (ACB) Spanish basketball league. The COVID-19 season was a great opportunity to better analyse the effect of game-location among ACB-teams to evaluate the differences between winners and losers. A retrospective cross-sectional study of the 2019–2020 ACB season (137 games of the regular season and 33 games of the final stage) was carried out. Game-related statistics were gathered from InStat (https://basketball.instatscout.com/). To evaluate the key performance indicators in this context, a discriminant analysis together with a binary logistic regression were run. The main results revealed that specific variables (normalized per minute played), such as points, field-goal percentage, field goals made, defensive rebounds, assists, and contested field goals made, played a crucial role in classifying winners and losers (p<0.05). Defensive rebounds (0.29±0.05 vs 0.24±0.04, p < 0.001), and assists (0.23±0.05 vs 0.19±0.04, p = 0.042), were key performance indicators for home-court winners. Defensive rebounds (0.29±0.05 vs 0.25±0.04, p < 0.001), and field-goal percentage (48.2±5.31 vs 42.7±5.95, p = 0.009) were key performance variables for away-court winners. Neutral-court winners had better isolation efficiency (49.5±31.6 vs 33.3±31.4, p < 0.05) and contested shot percentage (48.2±6.02 vs 44.8±5.34, p < 0.05) in the context of neutral-court tournaments. Uncontested shots and pick-and-roll efficiency seem not to be so important in the ACB when compared to the (National Basketball Association) NBA. Teams should look for players who assist to good shooters, as well as the presence of specialized players proficient in defensive rebounding. In the context of neutral-court tournaments, the importance of isolations and contested-shot performance is critical.
The growing trend of analyzing all performance factors involved in a game makes identifying offensive patterns a determining factor in improving tactical performance and decision making during a game. The main objective of this research was to analyze the effectiveness and detect successful patterns on offense at critical moments in the men’s EuroBasket 2022 and women’s EuroBasket 2021. The sample was composed of 509 technical–tactical offensive actions obtained from the last 2 min of the final quarters and overtime from the group stage and final round, whose difference in the final score was equal to or less than five points. For this purpose, observational methodology was employed using LINCE PLUS software through an observational instrument designed ad hoc. Descriptive analysis and chi-square (χ2) tests were performed with SPSS 25, and a pattern analysis (T-Patterns) was performed with Theme 5 software. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. The teams that were losing when performing the offense finished a greater number of plays and with greater effectiveness. Fastbreaks seem to be more effective in the closing minutes, a play characterized by a maximum of three passes and by finishing with individual play such as 1 × 1. In turn, actions finished near the hoop by inside players seem to be more effective when the possession is finished before 17 s. The practical implications described in this research will enable coaches to tailor their strategies and training to the critical moments of the game.
The paper comprises a proposition of nineteen criteria for the actual quality (situation-related efficiency/performance) evaluation in the elite basketball players (seven criteria for the efficiency on defence and twelve for the efficiency on offence) regarding all the playing positions. Coaches and other practitioners connected to the domain of basketball could utilize this set of criteria for the individual and team aspects of the performance follow-up and assessment in players throughout their sports career, from the cadettes' to the senior selections. Proposed set of criteria is the pressumption for the exact scientific and expert approach to the basketball performance (situation-related efficiency) evaluation and prediction--criterion variable. Weighting factors (coefficients of significance) for each criterion in relation to the playing positions should be determined on the next stage of developing a system of the performance evaluation criteria.
Water polo, as an activity, belongs in the category of polystructural complex move sports. The activities of a player's in role of second line attacker is observed on the sample of competitive games in the First national league. The study is aimed to define a set of new measurement variables for the objective recording of amount, intensity and duration of player's activities, and its evaluation by means of factor validity criteria. On the sample of 87 players, 29 variables were applied. Competent, trained officials made measurements. Basic statistics of all measured variables is presented as referent values of various player activities. In the factor analysis, three factors are found to be significant, explaining 84.6% of source variability, which is a subset of multivariate normally, distributed variables. Factors are interpreted as: "quantity of actions", "intensity of activity in the vertical body posture", and "intensity and extensity of activity in horizontal body posture". Of the last two, body posture is found to be specific in water polo, due to specifics of the game that is played in water. It is concluded that the proposed variables and measurement procedures are very well suited and objectively instrument for the purpose of measurement of the energetic aspect of kinesiological activity analysis.
The purpose of the present study was to analyze and compare the ways that different level basketball centers started and completed their individual attempts with the ball. Seventy centers from twenty-one basketball teams (Olympic level, Al national division and B national division) were evaluated. Forty-two games were observed concerning a) centers' ball possession ways, b) centers' ball reception ways, c) ways they completed their attempt with the ball and d) the court areas in which the above attempts were conducted. Data analysis showed differences between centers in the way they started and completed their individual offensive attempts with the ball. Differences were also found in the court areas in which centers' started and completed their offensive attempts. Centers in the third level had more stationary receptions than those in the second level. Olympic level centers used more complex offensive attempts which were started and completed close to the opponents' basket. It seems that centers' offensive basketball profile is differentiated according to the competing level.
According to Kloppenberg (1990), the philosophy of every coach is based solely on knowledge and the knowledge is obtained through experience, observation, conversation and study of previous literature. The purpose of the present study was to define the factors affecting the technical and tactical characteristics of offensive movements with the ball made by the player who organizes the team's offensive game in basketball (the playmaker). The present study observed 66 basketball players (playmakers) from 22 teams. Teams were selected from three different levels of competition. Three variables were evaluated: a) passing the ball, b) shooting the ball and c) areas around the basket where passing and shooting was attempted. Evaluation was made through observation of 46 videotaped games. Correspondence analysis was utilized for statistical analysis of the data. Results showed that the offensive movements attempted by the playmaker while he had the possession of the ball are primarily determined by specific factors while the individual offensive pattern of the playmaker depends upon his game characteristics and competitive level.
This article is a continuation of research aimed at formation of a system of criteria for the expert evaluation of the basketball players' actual quality. So far, the external standards for assessing players' performance have been defined and described and the relative importance coefficients of each criterion for the performance evaluation per positions in the game have been established as well. The purpose of this research was to test empirically the latter--the weighted system of criteria for evaluating the actual quality of basketball players proposed by Trninić and Dizdar (2000). Based on the determined descriptive indicators and the coefficients of importance of criteria, and on the degree of the objectivity level (interobservers' agreement) of the expert evaluations, it can be concluded that the measuring attributes (objectivity and sensitivity) for most of the criteria are in accordance with their relative importance coefficients for a particular position in the game. Consequently, the structure of the relevant criteria for each play position in the basketball is proposed.
Differences in motor and psychologic variables according to playing positions were analyzed in a sample of 53 elite female handball players, members of junior and senior national team. Motor status included 8 variables for assessment of explosive strength of landing and throwing, agility, speed strength, movement frequency, and flexibility. Psychologic status was analyzed through 4 dimensions according to Eysenck: extroversion, psychotic behavior, neurotic behavior, and lie. The anthropologic features analyzed showed statistically significant differences. Considering motor abilities, differences were recorded in the variables for assessment of speed strength, agility and leg movement frequency, where wings predominated, whereas goalkeepers showed predominance in flexibility. In psychologic status, differences were present in the variable for assessment of extroversion, which was most pronounced in wings, whereas psychotic behavior was more expressed in those at pivot position. The differences were primarily consequential to the selection of players of a specific anthropologic profile for particular playing positions. The hypothesis of the impact of kinesiologic specificities of a particular playing position on the formation of the players' anthropologic profile should be scientifically tested. Study results may found application in training and contest practice, especially in forming anthropologic models for particular positions during the process of player selection.
The aim of the study was to assess the basic motor abilities that determine top performance in women's handball, and to identify test panel for primary selection at handball school. The study included 155 female attendants of the Split Handball School, mean age 12.5 years. Differences in the basic motor abilities between the subjects that developed into elite handball players after 7-year training process and those that abandoned handball for being unable to meet the competition criteria were evaluated by use of discriminative analysis. The former were found to have also been superior initially in all variables analyzed, and in arm coordination, overall body coordination, throw and jump explosive strength, arm movement frequency and repetitive trunk strength in particular. Motor superiority based on the abilities of coordination, explosive strength and speed determines performance in women's handball, qualifying these abilities as reliable selection criteria. Based on this study results, a new model of selection in women's handball, with fine arm coordination as the major limiting factor of performance, has been proposed.
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