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Theory and Method in Voting Behavior Research
Abstract
Samuel J. Eldersveld has been a member of the staff of the University of Michigan since 1946. He is the co-author of Michigan Politics in Transition (1942) and contributor of a chapter in Change and Crisis in European Government (1947).
... Sociologists have long focused on the affiliation of individuals with their own ethnic group, social background as the key determinants of voting behavior while political scientist in the past have argued on the influence of party membership and voting conduct. Eldersveld (1951) in his article "Theory and Method in Voting Behavior Research" define the term "voting behavior" as an area of study that scrutinizes the political phenomena that has been ignored for quite some time. While it investigates records and statistics of votes, it also considers the computation of electoral swings and shifts. ...
... The results of their research, however, contradicted this hypothesis to the extent that it revealed that voting was more affected by the social group the voter belonged to than media exposure (Bartels, 2008). The association between social groups of a voter and his or her voting decision was so strong that they concluded that voting behavior could easily be explained using three factors, namely; religion, region and socioeconomic status (Eldersveld, 1951). ...
Purpose: The purpose of this study was to investigate the youth voting behavior considering how cultural factors, ethnicity, intergenerational factors, political ideologies and legal literacy determined voting behavior of the youth. Methodology: A Questionnaire was used to collect quantitative and qualitative data by including closed and open-ended questions. The quantitative data collected was analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) while the qualitative data was analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings were presented in form of tables, percentages and bar charts. Results: The findings revealed that the youth were to an extent influenced by culture in their voting patterns. The patriarchal nature of the communities in the country determined voting behavior in that mostly men were voted in. Conclusion: The study concluded that the level of literacy influenced voting behavior whereby, those in leadership and literate had a great influence on the choices made by the less literate. Recommendation: The study recommends increased dialogue and leadership training programs for the youth. Efforts to reclaim credibility of the electoral system and process should be made by the government through proper implementation of laws and civic education.
... The sociological approach, as seen in The Columbia Study by Lazarsfeld et al., posits that social factors, including religion, ethnicity, social class, and family background, profoundly impact voter behavior (Eldersveld, 1951). This view suggests that voters are shaped by their communities and networks, making voting preferences a reflection of group affiliations and cultural norms. ...
Objective: This study investigates the multifaceted dynamics of voter behavior during the 2020 regional election (Pemilukada) in Bengkalis regency, Riau province, Indonesia. Bengkalis, known for its strong sociocultural ties and diverse political landscape, provides a compelling context for examining sociological, psychological, and rational determinants in voting behavior. Theoretical Framework: Voter behavior in Indonesian elections has evolved since the reform era, with multiple factors influencing political decisions. Sociological and psychological factors, including emotional attachments to leaders, parties, ethnicity, and religion, significantly impact voter choices. Voter behavior and sustainable development goals (SDGs) reveals complex relationships between governance, elections, and development outcomes. Method: Through a quantitative explanatory approach, the data were gathered based on key sociological factors such as religion, social class, and ethnic background, alongside psychological influences including party identification and candidate issue stances. Result and Discussion: The findings indicate that sociocultural identity remains a strong influence, rational considerations, particularly regarding candidate performance, have gained prominence. Originality/Value: This study contributes to a nuanced understanding of Indonesian electoral behavior, highlighting implications for political strategy and democratic development.
... It is also important to note that the majority of studies examining the modality effects have focused on the impact of different media channels on information processing and recall of political information. Although some experimental studies on voting intentions and behavior have been conducted (Eldersveld, 1951(Eldersveld, , 1956Gerber, Green, & Shachar 2003;Gonsell & Gill, 1935), the effects of different modalities have not been explored extensively (Bositis & Steinel, 1987). Furthermore, most experimental studies have focused on short-term effect of exposure to content in different modalities, and hence cannot tell much about the potential long-term impact on people's political attitudes and behavior. ...
A ban on political podcasting during the General Elections 2006 in Singapore was justified by the Singaporean government on the grounds that the new medium had a greater power to influence voters than traditional modes of political discourse. A between-subjects controlled experiment was conducted to test whether podcasts of political speeches had a greater power to influence voters` evaluations of political candidates and likelihood of voting for them than online text-based transcripts of the same speeches. The study also examined whether mere exposure to political speeches online, irrespective of the modality, had an effect on voters` more general political preferences, i.e. the likelihood of support and voting for the opposition. The findings suggest that political podcasts were no more persuasive than text-based websites and that the effects on political preferences, if any, were likely due the exposure to political content online, not because of the nature of the medium. The implications of the findings are discussed.
... La sociología electoral, desde sus primeros pasos de consolidación académica en los años veinte y treinta del siglo XX, ha mantenido un interés constante por los factores explicativos del comportamiento del votante y la posibilidad de predecir los resultados de unas elecciones a partir del análisis de factores sociodemográficos diversos (Titus, 1935;Bean, 1948;Eldersveld, 1951). Probablemente The Peoples Choice, de Lazarsfeld, Berelson y Gaudet (1944) sea uno de los trabajos de la primera mitad del pasado siglo que más eco haya tenido al respecto, además de constituir un puente entre los estudios de sociología política y de comunicación de masas. ...
... Voting behavior research has been traditionally taken to be the one areas of political science where theory can be systematically and quantitatively measured and tested and where statements of causal determinants can be more reliably formulated (Eldersveld, 1951). As a result, the importance of sophisticated data analysis methods for academic studies of electoral politics can hardly be understated. ...
The resurgence of Bayesian statistics in political research and, in particular, the rising popularity of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, has unlocked estimation problems long thought to be considered impossible or intractable. Besides opening new terrain to political methodologists, these developments have allowed scholars to explore new problems or to revisit longstanding puzzles. This dissertation takes advantage of the generality and power of the techniques comprising MCMC methods to address novel substantive and methodological questions about abstention, voter choice and turnout misreporting, areas where substantive controversies remain despite the rich story of academic studies on electoral behavior and the considerable attention that has been paid to them.
The second chapter of the dissertation develops a statistical model to jointly analyze invalid voting and electoral absenteeism, two important sources of abstention in compulsory voting systems that had so far not been simultaneously examined. I illustrate the application of the model using data from Brazilian legislative elections between 1945 and 2006, underscoring relevant differences in the determinants of both forms of non-voting. The third chapter presents a study of voter choice in Chile’s 2005 presidential elections, examining substitution patterns in voters’ preferences over the competing candidates and highlighting the influence of candidates' entry and exit strategies on the election results, an aspect that has received virtually no attention in previous analyses of Chilean electoral politics. Finally, the fourth chapter develops a model to correct for misclassified binary responses using information from auxiliary data sources, and applies it to the analysis of voter turnout in the U.S. While the main contribution of the chapter is methodological, the empirical application has clear implications for researchers interested in the influence of race on voting behavior in America.
Voters’ participation in election is essential for deciding leadership legitimacy in a democracy in any part of the globe. However, voters’ participation in Nigeria has continued to dwindle, may be due to failure of government and political elites to address social, political, economic and security challenges confronting the nation which Ondo state is not an exception. Existing literature showed that scholars has provide insights into voters’ apathy towards elections but did not comprehensively measured the extent of opinion about factors that influenced voters’ apathy in 2023 governorship election in ondo state Nigeria, underlining the need to reassess the issue. This study therefore assessed the factors that influenced voter apathy in 2020 governorship election in ondo state Nigeria and show extent of opinions. This study is rooted in rational choice theory. Both primary and secondary methods were adopted to gather data. This study found only 27% of registered voters participated in 2020 Ondo state’s Gubernatorial election indicating high apathy and questioning the election's legitimacy. It reveals extent which some factors such as age, education, tribe, political violence, lack of accountability, bad governance, and insufficient election information has influenced apathy was high, while health status, security and monetary inducements were less influential. To address voter apathy, it recommends engaging all age groups, increasing voter education, promoting inclusive policies, improving healthcare, security, strengthening political accountability, enhancing information dissemination and tackling financial barriers to foster higher voters’ participation and stronger democracy in Ondo State, Nigeria.
This article aims to classify the methodological procedures used by academic works in the field of Electoral Geography. The studies were classified according to 4 typologies: (i) descriptive and statistical cartographic representation; (ii) spatial quantitative methods; (iii) individual voter behavior and (iv) social logic of electoral behavior. The following categories were added: (v) state of the art / knowledge and (vi) others. To carry out the survey, research was carried out: in the catalog of CAPES theses and dissertations with the term electoral geography and added the filters: temporal from 2016 and areas of knowledge Political Science and Geography; in 63 websites of journals on Geography; on Scielo platform and on Google Scholar platform. The survey resulted in 45 academic papers. It was evident that the distribution of studies is egalitarian between Political Science and Geography. There is a predominance of quantitative methods, especially evaluating the scope of Political Science, while in Geography there is a similar distribution of typologies. We conclude that the diversity of methods is natural in a science with more than a century of history and we suggest research in conference proceedings and research groups for future surveys.
Este artigo objetiva classificar os procedimentos metodológicos utilizados por trabalhos da Geografia Eleitoral no Brasil e sugerir caminhos possíveis a novas pesquisas do campo acadêmico. Os estudos foram classificados de acordo com 4 tipologias: (i) a representação cartográfica descritiva e estatística; (ii) métodos quantitativos espaciais; (iii) comportamento individual do eleitor e (iv) lógica social do comportamento eleitoral. Foram acrescidas as categorias: (v) estado da arte / conhecimento e (vi) outras. O artigo apresente duas etapas: levantamento/classificação e sugestão de possíveis caminhos. Para realizar o levantamento foram feitas pesquisas no catálogo de teses e dissertações da CAPES com o termo geografia eleitoral e acrescentados os filtros temporal, a partir de 2016, e áreas de conhecimento Ciência Política e Geografia em 63 sites de periódicos da área de Geografia, na plataforma Scielo e na plataforma Google Acadêmico. O levantamento resultou em 45 trabalhos acadêmicos. Evidenciou-se que a distribuição dos estudos é igualitária entre as áreas de Ciência Política e Geografia. Há predomínio de métodos quantitativos, avaliando o recorte da Ciência Política, enquanto que em Geografia há uma distribuição semelhante das tipologias. Na segunda etapa sugerimos três possíveis rumos, com o intuito de reduzir algumas lacunas diagnosticadas: o uso de teorizações que enfoquem no espaço geográfico como causalidade dos resultados eleitorais e a neurociência e os estudos sobre Guerra Híbrida. Concluímos que a diversidade de métodos é natural, em uma ciência com mais de um século de história e sugerimos uma pesquisa em anais de congressos e grupos de pesquisa, para levantamentos futuros.
Drawing on the wealth of literature regarding scaffolding, the author explores the use of data analysis under conditions of remote learning to help students think and talk about a divisive election, whilst building the skills necessary to not only undertake independent research, but to become creators of knowledge. The chapter explores the structures that can support students as they move from passive recipients of knowledge to producers of knowledge, as well as ways that the educational institution can support faculty members in the transition from exclusively face-to-face instruction to online learning. The combination of remote learning and data analysis, as a major learning goal, may contribute to a more analytical, hence less controversial or confrontational, learning environment.
This study investigates voting behaviour patterns of the electorate in reserved constituencies of assembly election of Uttar Pradesh in 2017. The pattern of voting (Turnout and vote shares) may change or remain changed over the period of time (one election to another) and space. Uttar Pradesh is divided into five geographical regions namely Ganga Yamuna Doab, Ruhelkhand region, Bundelkhand region, Awadh region and Purvanchal region comprising of 80 parliamentary constituencies and 403 assembly constituencies. Social category wise constituencies have been classified into three major groups, viz. General (317) reserved for Scheduled Caste (84) and Scheduled Tribe (02). Regional distribution of reserved assembly constituencies are as fallow; Ganga-Yamuna doab 26, Ruhelkhand 09, Bundelkhand 05, Awadh 26 and Purvanchal 18 seats, remaining two reserved assembly constituencies for Scheduled tribe out of 02 have been allocated in Purvancal region. The main objective of the paper is to examine the voting behaviour pattern of reserved assembly constituencies in 2017 election and to highlight the responsible factors for changes in voting pattern from one constituency to another. This study is based on secondary data sources (Assembly Election 2017), which are collected from the website of Election Commission of India and other published and unpublished sources. The voters' turnout of reserved constituencies has been documented at 61.45 percent in the state, which is slightly (0.41 percent) higher than the average turnout (61.04 Percent) of the state.
This study focuses on voting behaviour of the electorates in two consecutive assembly elections of Varanasi district. Mapping the voting behaviour pattern is one of the great significance for an electoral geographer as it depicts the level of political awareness, consciousness and socioeconomic development of that area. Voting behaviour is not confined to the examination of voting statistics, records and computation of electoral shifts and swings; it also involves an analysis of individual's psychological processes (perception, emotion and motivation) and their influence on political decision. In this paper the main objective is to examine the voting behaviour pattern and to study the factors responsible for the spatial changes in voting pattern as well as voting behaviour from one constituency to another in the two consecutive assembly elections of 2012 and 2017.The study is based on secondary data collected from the Election Commission of India and other published and unpublished sources.
The main purpose of the study had been to explore the Nexus between Theory and Practice of political marketing in Ethiopia and it attempted to examine the degree and nature of its compatibility within the parties.
In order to achieve this objective the study used mixed approach and take sample of 248 and 304 from top members of two political parties namly EPRDF and CUDP and relevant data were gathered and analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistical techniques.
The findings of the study revealed that there is no any formal marketing practice used by both parties and no marketing department responsible for the establishment of political marketing mix elements rather they seldom undertake conventionally.
The study also revealed parties are not using marketing tools such as promoting, branding, segmenting in consistent and continuous base and even need recognition are done in decentralized way though they acknowledged the association and importance of business with political marketing. it also indicated that the parties are not conducting marketing research or forecast the demand for electorate and simply stand for what they believe in, or focus on persuading voters to agree with them with pre plan and developed product (idea /policy ) which is relating with the selling concept .
Keywords; Political parties, political marketing, electorate market, Ethiopia, political
commitment
The goal of this article is to assess the production and evaluate the progress of latin american political science in the comprehension of voter behavior. It analyzes the bibliographic production in Mexico, Argentina, Chile and Colombia between 2000 and 2010, controlling the effect that the different level of development of political science in each country could have on the development of this particular subfield. For this purpose, the article evaluates the research questions, hypotheses and delimitation of studies, as well as the conceptual streanghts of this production. The main finding is that, in spite of the methodological complexity of studies and the development of relevant and contextualized questions, the path ahead still long.
As had been true during the Depression and World War II, electoral politics in the 1950s were dominated by the persona of the president, Dwight D. Eisenhower. Unlike his Democratic predecessors during the preceding 20 years, Eisenhower had to contend with an opposition-controlled Congress for most of his time in the White House. Both the Republicans and Democrats experienced severe intra-party tensions and divisions in the course of the 1950s, though not over the same issues. The 1958 midterm elections, which occurred in the midst of a severe economic recession, produced lopsided Democratic majorities that made Eisenhower's life much more difficult. The 1950s was a seminal decade in the development of voting behavior analysis. The ways in which Presidents Roosevelt and Truman had wielded their influence in matters of foreign policy, in particular, created angst in Congress - especially among Republicans - that constitutional checks and balances were being overturned.
In den vorangegangenen Kapiteln sind die vielfältigen Möglichkeiten, Wahlen zum Gegenstand der Forschung zu machen, an Beispielen erörtert worden. Von einer geschlossenen Methodologie einer »Wahl-Wissenschaft« kann man nicht sprechen. Nunmehr sollen die vier hauptsächlichen Forschungskonzepte noch einmal nebeneinandergestellt werden.
In den Vereinigten Staaten hat sich die Wahlforschung nicht von einer einzigen hervorragenden Persönlichkeit ausgehend entwickelt wie in Frankreich; und sie ist auch nicht in einer einzigen Schule fortentwickelt worden wie dort. Die politische Wissenschaft und die Soziologie in den USA haben eine Fülle von Studien hervorgebracht, deren Mittelpunkt das Wählen und die Wahl sind. Es gab kein Nacheinander, keine Entfaltung der neuen Ansätze aus den bisherigen Ergebnissen, sondern eher ein Nebeneinander, eine Konkurrenz der verschiedenen Methoden. Freilich standen die jüngsten zwei Jahrzehnte im Zeichen der behavioral studies. In diesem Kapitel mußte aus der Überfülle des Vorhandenen eine Auswahl getroffen werden, um überhaupt den Stoff bändigen zu können. Es wäre jedoch ungerecht, die Zeitrechnung der Wahlforschung mit der ersten Anwendung von panel-Befragungen zu beginnen, wie es gelegentlich getan wird, und frühere Studien gleichsam einem methodischen Steinzeitalter zuzurechnen.
Die Wissenschaft von der Politik, seit den griechischen Altvätern in der Ethik menschlicher Verhaltensweisen verwurzelt, sieht es zweifellos als eine ihrer stol-. zesten Aufgaben an, das Individuum und seine Gesellschaft für verantwortungsbewußtes Handeln vorzubereiten. Sie ist in diesem tiefsten Sinne politisch, daß sie den Menschen — als Subjekt und Objekt ihrer Bemühungen — direkt anspricht, täglich zur Entscheidung herausfordert. Dies macht sie gewiß zu einer unbequemen, gefährlichen und stets gefährdeten Wissenschaft. Und das gilt um so mehr, je notwendiger sie ist: in den Zeiten des Umbruchs — und leben wir nicht immer in solchen Notzeiten der Geschichte? —, in denen alle überkommenen Wertbegriffe und Maßstäbe erneut in Frage gestellt werden und neu zu durchdenken sind. Ihre Zeit- und Ortsgebundenheit bedeutet allerdings auch, daß die politische Wissenschaft in jedem Land und zu jeder Zeit ein eigentümliches Gepräge und bestimmte Aufgaben hat. Das amerikanische Beispiel ist keine Ausnahme. Wie der viel diskutierte und oft mystisch verkleidete Nationalcharakter, so ist auch die politische Wissenschaft ein Niederschlag der großen geschichtlichen Erfahrungen und gegenwärtigen Erfordernisse eines Volkes. Was sind solche Wesenszüge der amerikanischen Land¬schaft, die als Wegweiser für unsere Untersuchungen dienen könnten? Wenn man die reichen Erfahrungen dieser „Nation der Nationen“ kategorisieren wollte, so könnte man vornehmlich vier entscheidende Einschnitte feststellen: die Pioniererfahrungen der frühen Kolonisten, das Erlebnis der frontier im 19.
In an effort to investigate the applicability of certain social psychological concepts and techniques to research in political science, the authors pose a number of questions central to political science and describe experimental techniques which might be used in exploring these.
All contemporary models of candidate evaluation are memory-based models in that they treat the direction and strength of evaluation as a function of the mix of positively and negatively valued (valenced) information retrieved from memory. Yet, oddly enough, despite the assumption that memory mediates judgment, none of the major models looks at the processes involved in what information voters recall and how that evidence was integrated into a summary evaluation. In this sense then, political science models of vote choice are black-box models: They are silent about how voters actually go about interpreting information and integrating the “evidence” into a summary evaluation of the candidates. In this article we critique the major political science models, call attention to the implicit assumptions they make about what “evidence” is assumed to be in memory, and conclude with an argument for introducing process into our explanations of vote choice.
Periodisch durchgeführte freie Wahlen sind in modernen repräsentativen Demokratien, die die Legitimität politischer Herrschaft
an allgemein akzeptierte Regeln bindet, das Verfahren zur Bestellung und Ablösung von Herrschaftsträgern.1 Sie bilden das Bindeglied zwischen dem demokratischen Souverän und seinen Repräsentanten, die an seiner Stelle gesamtgesellschaftlich
verbindliche Entscheidungen treffen. Diese Macht verleihen Bürger in Wahlen auf Zeit. Wahlen bieten daher eine institutionalisierte
Möglichkeit, Elitenhandeln zu kontrollieren und politische Eliten mit friedlichen Mitteln auszutauschen. Die Einbettung von
Wahlen in die repräsentativ-demokratische Institutionenordnung verschafft Wahlen nicht nur eine herausragende demokratietheoretische
Bedeutung (Schmitt 2005), sondern macht Wahlverhalten notwendig zu einer verfassten, standardisierten und von Eliten vorstrukturierten Form politischen
Verhaltens. So ist das Repertoire an Verhaltensmöglichkeiten auf die Wahlenthaltung und die Stimmabgabe für eine Partei oder
einen Kandidaten beschränkt. Zudem wird das Angebot an Parteien und Kandidaten in der Regel von politischen Eliten vorgegeben,
so dass die Wahlentscheidung von Bürgern als Reaktion auf Elitenhandeln zu verstehen ist.
Political opinion is guided by the belief that elections occurring in good business years result in a demonstration of confidence in the party in power, while elections occurring in depression years tend to turn the majority party out of office. A correlation of the vote given to the party in power in about one hundred federal congressional districts with selected poinst on the business cycle shows that when an election follows a business expansion the party in power will receive a greater proportion of the vote than when an election occurs in a period of severe business depression. While the study substantiates political opinion, it also shows quite clearly that there will always be a relatively large number of election districts that are apparently not affected by changing business conditions.
Analysis of election returns for a municipal election in Detroit indicates that one candidate benefited appreciably over his
opponent through the showing of special motion picture trailers supporting his candidacy. The effectiveness of the trailer
appered to vary markedly, however, according to the ethnic and socio-economic background of the groups to which it was shown.