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The Effects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections, 1982–1990

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Abstract

Fifteen years ago, Peters and Welch investigated the effects of corruption charges on the outcomes of U.S. House elections. Their evidence from 1968 to 1978 indicated that charges generally produced a decline in vote share of between 6% and 11%, depending upon the nature of the charge. Morals violations were the most consequential for candidates and conflict of interest the least. Continuing changes in American politics and the nature of campaigns have made corruption charges even more common and, indeed, central to many races. In the following research note, we explore whether the changing nature of congressional campaigns has altered the magnitude of the effects of corruption charges on congressional election outcomes.
University of Nebraska - Lincoln
DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln
Faculty Publications: Political Science Political Science, Department of
2-1-1997
e Eects of Charges of Corruption on Voting
Behavior in Congressional Elections, 1982-1990
John R. Hibbing
University of Nebraska Lincoln, jhibbing1@unlnotes.unl.edu
Susan Welch
is Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Political Science, Department of at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It
has been accepted for inclusion in Faculty Publications: Political Science by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska -
Lincoln.
Hibbing, John R. and Welch, Susan, "e Eects of Charges of Corruption on Voting Behavior in Congressional Elections,
1982-1990" (1997). Faculty Publications: Political Science. Paper 14.
hp://digitalcommons.unl.edu/poliscifacpub/14
... Indeed, in their experimental design, Barnes et al. (2020) contrast the effect of "sex scandals" with that of general "corruption scandals" while Doherty et al. (2011) contrast "financial scandals" (tax evasion) with "moral" (sexual misconduct) in their experimental design. Observational work on American congressional elections from 1982 to 1990 by Welch and Hibbing (1997) classifies corruption scandals into five differing categories, but this work largely focuses on just scandals relating to moral or financial-related matters. 2 Consequently, while these studies critically advance our understanding of how scandals affect the evaluation of political elites, the design employed by these limits our assessment of how multiple types of scandals may manifest themselves in the general electorate. Moreover, none of these scandals assesses one critical dimension of sex scandals, the case of sexual harassment. ...
... To that point,Welch and Hibbing (1997) code scandals into the following categories: campaign violations, bribery, "other crimes," conflict of interest, abuse of congressional prerogatives, moral charges, and a residual "other" category.Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved. ...
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Introduction The rich literature on valence finds that involvement in scandals results in potential sanctions by voters on the basis of low assessments of valence attributes. However, the literature largely does not differentiate between whether some scandals are more politically costly to elites than others, particularly with respect to the (recently) heightened salience of sexual harassment scandals. Methods To assess the presented theoretical framework, we recruit 241 respondents and employ a conjoint experimental design to estimate and compare the causal effect of various types of political scandals on evaluating electoral candidates. Because each of our respondents evaluates a total of 6 pairs of candidates, the total sample size for analysis is 2892 under our design. Results Candidates who are involved in any type of scandal are statistically less preferred by the experimental respondents. Between the selected scandal types, a candidate’s preference drops the most while he is involved in sexual harassment. Finally, except when the voters’ and candidate’s gender are in congruence, the negative effect of sexual harassment is conditional. Conclusions We find strong evidence that involvement in sexual harassment scandals lowers candidate support to a greater degree than other types of scandals. We also find that male voters tend to ease the negative effect of sexual harassment when the violators are male candidates. Policy Implications With sexual harassment’s large and various (i.e., on victims, citizens, and parties) impacts, our findings emphasize the need for better finding responsible parties that may pressure candidates involved in sexual harassment scandals to either resign if they are currently serving in office or withdrawal from electoral competition.
... Intuitively, a scandal should affect specific support for implicated representatives: the eroding effect. It is almost a truism that scandals are associated with negative candidate evaluations and lower vote shares for implicated politicians (von Sikorski et al. 2020;Welch and Hibbing 1997; although see Keele 2007). The media is crucial, however. ...
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One reason given for declining levels of trust in politicians and institutions is the incidence of scandals involving voters' representatives. Politicians implicated in scandals, especially financial scandals, typically see their constituents' support for them decrease. It has been suggested that these specific negative judgements about a representative's misconduct spill over onto diffuse political trust in the system as a whole. We argue that the 2009 Parliamentary expenses scandal in the United Kingdom is a strong test of these scandal spillover effects in a non-experimental context. Yet, using a multilevel analysis of survey and representative implication data, we find no evidence for these effects. This is despite voters being aware of their MP's scandal implication, and this awareness affecting voters' support for their own MP. We conclude that voters' judgements about their constituency representatives are unlikely to affect their diffuse political trust.
... After a short review of the relevant literature, we introduce our theoretical account of how politicians' responses influence voters' reactions to scandals. 3 A large body of the political science literature has established the damaging impact of scandals on election outcomes and the favourability of the politicians involved (Banducci and Karp 1994;Fernandez-Vazquez, Barbera, and Rivero 2016;Hirano and Snyder 2012;Welch and Hibbing 1997;Winters and Weitz-Shapiro 2016). However, studies also found a great deal of heterogeneity in voters' responses depending on the type (Carlson, Ganiel, and Hyde 2000;Doherty, Dowling, 2 Given that we told respondents that they were reading about a fictional scandal, the project did not deceive respondents. ...
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... Prior research offers a broad consensus that political figures are negatively affected by scandals (Banducci and Karp 1994;Vonnahme 2014;Welch and Hibbing 1997). Some estimates suggest that a scandal can subtract almost 4% of the incumbent's total vote, with the candidate 13 times more likely to lose than a scandal-free incumbent (Basinger 2012). ...
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How do voters respond to a co-partisan political candidate after hearing about a serious scandal? We apply qualitative content analysis to open-ended text responses collected from survey respondents, focusing on 159 respondents who remain willing to vote for a hypothetical male candidate after learning that allegations of sexual harassment against him were settled out of court. We uncover two main strategies by which respondents explained and justified their willingness to look past the misconduct allegations. The dominant strategy was to extend moral licence to the candidate based on his prior good deeds; a second prominent strategy was to disbelieve and reject the allegations. Our findings offer new insights on why some political candidates and careers appear untroubled by even serious allegations of misconduct, and frames new research avenues on which voters might be more likely to extend moral licence and in what circumstances.
... Evidence exists for Europe(Bågenholm 2013), Japan(Reed et al. 1996), and the United States(Welch and Hibbing 1997). For an overview, seeGolden (2010). ...
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This paper explores the role of identity in voters’ decision to retain corrupt politicians. We build up a model of electoral accountability with pure moral hazard and bring it to the lab. Politicians must decide whether to invest in a public project with uncertain returns or to keep the funds for themselves. Voters observe the outcome of the project but not the action of the politician; if the project is unsuccessful, they do not know whether it was because of bad luck or because the politician embezzled the funds. We run two treatments; a control and a treatment where subjects are assigned an identity using the minimal group paradigm. Our main result is that, upon observing a failed project, voters approve politicians of their same identity group significantly more often than in the control and compared to politicians of a different identity group. This is partially driven by a belief on same-identity politicians being more honest. We also observe that subjects acting as politicians embezzle funds less often than expected by the equilibrium prediction.
... Inequalities in (9) are a consequence of parameters described in section 2.3 and the definition of constants A C , B C , C C and D C presented in (6), this are a simplification of the political reality of a country where low levels of corruption and great and good campaign proposals by the government and opposition should lead citizens to be interested in the political life of the country when electing their representatives, in order to choose the best government alternative. On the other hand, high levels of corruption and low levels of proposition of the opposition to solve the country's problems can lead citizens to become fed up, keeping them away from the polls ( [4], [17]) or promoting disinterest in finding out about the proposals of politicians from different currents, which can encourage dishonest acts by citizens, such as the sale of votes to obtain some benefit ( [41]), given the impossibility of correcting the actions of their representatives ( [38]). ...
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