Fertility convergence in the Indian states: An assessment of changes in averages and inequalities in fertility

Genus 09/2012; 68(1):65-88.


Are the fertility rates across the Indian states and socioeconomic spectrum converging? This paper seeks to answer to this question and makes three original contributions: First, a theoretical framework is conceptualised to understand the progress in fertility transition alongside socioeconomic and health transition. Second, the paper quantifies the progress in fertility transition across the major states of India. Third, fertility convergence is estimated both in terms of absolute and relative distribution of total fertility rates between the states and socioeconomic groups. The fertility transition plots and Change-point estimates indicate varying pattern of fertility transition, critical Change-points and steady positions among Indian states. The testing of regression based convergence measures for average fertility rates reveals that fertility rates were diverged over the long-term period of 1981-2009. However, the convergence measure estimates in sub-periods suggest pronounced divergence of fertility rates during the initial period of 1981-91 but subsequently replaced with considerable volume of convergence for the recent period of 2001-09. Overall, India’s fertility transition is characterised by a transformation from progressive transition disequilibrium to progressive transition equilibrium in fertility rates for the Indian states and socioeconomic spectrum.

Download full-text


Available from: Srinivas Goli, Dec 16, 2014
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This study reassessed the progress achieved since 1990 in maternal and child mortality indicators to test whether the progress is converging or diverging across countries worldwide. The convergence process is examined using standard parametric and non-parametric econometric models of convergence. The results of absolute convergence estimates reveal that progress in maternal and child mortality indicators is diverging for the entire period of 1990-2010 [maternal mortality ratio (MMR) - β = .00033, p < .574; neonatal mortality rate (NNMR) - β = .04367, p < .000; post-neonatal mortality rate (PNMR) - β = .02677, p < .000; under-five mortality rate (U5MR) - β = .00828, p < .000)]. In the recent period, such divergence is replaced with convergence for MMR but diverged for all the child mortality indicators. The results of Kernel density estimate reveal considerable reduction in divergence of MMR for the recent period; however, the Kernel density distribution plots show more than one 'peak' which indicates the emergence of convergence clubs based on their mortality levels. For child mortality indicators, the Kernel estimates suggest that divergence is in progress across the countries worldwide but tended to converge for countries with low mortality levels. A mere progress in global averages of maternal and child mortality indicators among a global cross-section of countries does not warranty convergence unless there is a considerable reduction in variance, skewness and range of change.
    Full-text · Article · Mar 2014 · Global Public Health
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The objectives of this study are: first, to test the " inequality life cycle hypothesis " in the context of long-term demographic progress in India, and second, to identify the different stages of between-state inequality transition in the demographic progress and to predict its future pattern. We used direct estimates of demographic indicators from sample registration system for post-1971 and indirect estimates from various sources for pre-1971. We used a two-part methodology: First, we reconstructed the layout of " inequality life cycle hypothesis " to illustrate the evolutionary perspective of between-state inequalities in demographic progress. Secondly, we used standard deviations to obtain estimates of between-state inequalities in demographic indicators. The empirical verification of the long-term pattern of between-state inequalities in India revealed that the behaviour of inequalities is the same for all three demographic indicators selected: they were low in the pre-transition phase, then rose in the initial phase of progressive transition and started declining in later phases of progressive transition. Based on the projected findings, we can expect that by the time of post-demographic transition phase, between-state inequalities will return to their steady state equilibrium. This study provides a generalized framework for understanding the behaviour of between-state inequalities in the demographic variables in India.
    Full-text · Article · Oct 2015

We use cookies to give you the best possible experience on ResearchGate. Read our cookies policy to learn more.