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Chapter 16 in Volume 12: Ecological Economics of Estuaries and Coasts, (eds., M.
van den Belt and R. Costanza) in the Treatise on Estuarine and Coastal Science
(Series eds., E. Wolanski, and D. McLusky), Elsevier.
Title: A scenario analysis of climate change and ecosystem
services for the Great Barrier Reef
Authors: Robert Costanzac*, Erin Bohenskya, James Butlerb, Iris Bohnetb, Aurélie
Delisled, Katharina Fabriciuse, Margaret Goochf, Ida Kubiszewskic, George Lukacsg,
Petina Pertb and Eric Wolanskig
a CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Davies Laboratory, PMB Aitkenvale, Queensland,
4814, Australia
b CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems, Australian Tropical Forest Institute, James Cook
University
PO Box 12139, Earlville BC, Cairns QLD 4870, Australia
c Gund Institute for Ecological Economics, Rubenstein School of Environment and
Natural Resources, The University of Vermont, 617 Main Street, Burlington, VT
05405-1708, USA
d School of Earth and Environmental Sciences/ School of Business, James Cook
University, Townsville QLD 4811 Australia
e Australian Institute of Marine Science, PMB 3, Townsville MC, Queensland 4810,
Australia
f Cairns Institute Research Fellow, School of Education, James Cook University,
Townsville QLD 4811, Australia
g Australian Centre for Tropical Freshwater Research, James Cook University,
Townsville, Queensland 4811 Australia
*Corresponding author; email: Robert.Costanza@uvm.edu; phone: 802 656 2974
1
Abstract
The extent to which nations and regions can actively shape the future or must passively
respond to global forces is a topic of relevance to current discourses on climate change,
ecosystems services, and human well-being. In Australia, climate change has been
identified as the greatest threat to the ecological resilience of the Great Barrier Reef and
the multiple ecosystem services it provides, but is exacerbated by regional and local
pressures. We discuss previous applications of scenario analysis and describe a case study
we undertook to explore how two key uncertainties may influence these threats and their
impact on the Great Barrier Reef and adjacent catchment’s ecosystem services in the
future. These two uncertainties were whether (1) global development and (2) Australian
development is defined and pursued primarily in terms of economic growth or broader
concepts of human well-being and environmental sustainability, and in turn, how climate
change is managed and mitigated. We compared the implications of four scenarios for
marine and terrestrial ecosystem services and human well-being. The results suggest that
while regional actions can partially offset global inaction on climate change until about
mid-century, there are probable threshold levels for marine ecosystems, beyond which the
Great Barrier Reef will become a fundamentally different system by 2100 if climate
change is not curtailed. Management that can respond to pressures at both global and
regional scales will be needed to maintain the full range of ecosystem services. It is
possible to maintain human well-being even while some ecosystem services decline, but
only if regional management is strong. The future of the region depends largely on
whether national and regional decision-makers choose to be active future ‘makers’ or
passive future ‘takers’ in responding to global drivers of change. We conclude by
discussing potential avenues for using these scenarios for further discussion and
consensus-building with the Great Barrier Reef region’s stakeholders.
Keywords: Great Barrier Reef, future scenarios, climate change, scale, ecosystem
services, human well-being
2
1. Introduction
Worldwide, alternative discourses surrounding climate adaptation and mitigation are
establishing themselves, with much focus on the roles and responsibilities of nations
(Doulton and Brown, 2009). In 2007, following a disastrous typhoon, Philippines
President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo remarked that:
‘the world is divided into climate makers and climate takers. Climate makers are those
responsible for large emissions of greenhouse gases that warm the globe. Climate
takers are those who do not emit large amounts of greenhouse gas but nonetheless
suffer the consequences of climate change because climate change is global. Climate
makers are responsible for mitigating global warming, while climate takers must
undertake adaptation measures’ (Office of the President, 2007)
A divided world of makers and takers was also envisaged nearly a decade earlier by
Australian futurist Doug Cocks. His view diverges from Macapagal-Arroyo’s, however,
and invokes a greater degree of choice: Australia, he argued, could either be a future
maker, actively engaged in shaping all aspects of the future, or it could be a future taker,
passively responding to what comes its way (Cocks, 1999). This choice is implicit in the
current debate in Australia about action on climate change (Christoff, in press), and begs
a critical question: to what extent can proactive national, regional and local responses to
climate change and other global drivers shape future outcomes, at least at these sub-
global levels, when forces of global change are beyond national, regional or local
control? The significance of scale in understanding and negotiating global environmental
change has been emphasized in the literature (Wilbanks and Kates, 1999; Lebel, 2005 and
others), yet the challenges presented by these scale dynamics on the ground remain
formidable.
In Australia, this question has particular relevance to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), the
world’s largest coral reef ecosystem and an international, national and local icon that is
threatened by change at multiple scales. In September 2009, the Great Barrier Reef
Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) identified the following issues in order of priority as
threatening the GBR’s ecological resilience: climate change, continued declining water
quality from catchment runoff, loss of coastal habitats from development and impacts
from commercial and traditional fishing of threatened species (GBRMPA 2009).
Increasing sea surface temperatures due to global climate change have already led to
regional-scale coral bleaching events on the GBR, and coral bleaching, coral mortality
and biodiversity depletion are predicted to continue, possibly with increased frequency in
coming decades (Preston and Jones, 2006; Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2007). As in other
marine ecosystems, these threats are interactive (Hughes et al., 2007). While the
GBRMPA introduced a major rezoning policy in 1998 to address the impact of
overharvesting on the ecological resilience of the GBR (Olsson et al., 2008), declining
water quality from agricultural run-off may also reduce the resilience of corals to climate
change impacts (Wooldridge, 2009; Wooldridge and Done, 2009).
3
The threats to the GBR outlined above need to be managed through a multiple-scale,
cross-agency and cross-community approach, and the GBR itself needs to be
conceptualized as a catchment-to-reef system. Currently, numerous agencies share
responsibility for managing the GBR and catchment, but there is no unified institutional
management arrangement for the region, an artefact of Australia’s historical division of
federal and state powers. Arguably, the institutional arrangements for the region have
resulted in mismatches between governance and ecosystem processes, exemplified by
management that has been largely sectoral, narrowly focused and short-term (Ferrier,
2007). Although there is great concern among GBR institutions about future uncertainty,
and recognition of the need for longer-term planning (GBRMPA, 1994; Johnson and
Marshall, 2007; GBRMPA, 2009), ongoing and integrated strategic planning by these
institutions has been limited.
Scenarios–alternative future visions–provide a mechanism for individual and collective
consideration and articulation of perceptions and aspirations for the future, and the
opportunities and risks that may be associated with particular decisions. Scenarios have
been widely used elsewhere to illuminate the enabling conditions for and constraints on
current and future management approaches and strategies (MA, 2005, Nicholls et al. this
volume), identify possible adaptations and ultimately assist agencies to move from a
position of ‘taking’ to ‘making’ desirable future change.
Scenario exercises have been conducted in the GBR region at a range of scales and for
various purposes (Roebeling et al., 2005; Bohnet and Smith, 2007; Bohnet, 2008; Bohnet
et al., 2008), and have contributed to an understanding of the implications of potential
future change by a wide range of local and regional stakeholders. Yet to date, no
comprehensive future analysis of the GBR region exists that is based on the downscaling
of available global climate change projections and other aspects of global change, to
enable exploration of how global change may influence and interact with regional and
local responses.
To begin working towards such an exploration of the GBR’s future, we conducted a
scenario exercise that examined how key drivers of global climate change and its
mitigation at the GBR scale might impact on ecosystem services and human well-being.
In this paper we discuss the process and results of this exercise, implications for
management and potential avenues for using these scenarios further with a range of GBR
stakeholders.
2. Methods
2.1 Scenario Planning and Analysis
‘Scenario’ is a term with multiple meanings. Scenario exercises vary in their objectives
and hence their characteristics (Biggs et al., 2007, Nicholls et al. this volume). In this
chapter, we define scenario analysis or scenario planning as a structured process of
exploring and evaluating the future. Scenarios are essentially stories that consider how
4
alternative futures, typically related to a particular focal issue (O’Brien, 2000), may
unfold from combinations of highly influential and uncertain drivers, and their
interactions with more certain driving forces.
Scenario planning differs from forecasting, projections and predictions, in that it explores
plausible rather than probable futures (Peterson et al., 2003). Although aspects of the
future worlds depicted by scenarios may come to eventuate, these worlds are often best
viewed as caricatures of reality from which we can learn.
Scenarios are best suited to exploring situations of high uncertainty and low
controllability (Peterson et al., 2003); for example, climate change and global governance
are largely beyond the control of a region such as the GBR. In these situations, scenarios
can help to illuminate the consequences of these uncontrollable forces and to formulate
robust responses locally. Importantly, scenarios can help to reveal policy and value
changes that may be required, and key branching points at which such changes can most
affect outcomes (Gallopín, 2002).
Scenarios have been developed for a range of applications from global to local scales,
including corporate strategy (Wack, 1985), political transition (Kahane, 1992) and
community-based natural resource management (Wollenberg et al., 2000; Evans et al.,
2006). Table 1 shows a range of previous scenario planning exercises that have been
carried out at the global, national, and regional scale. Below we review some of these
exercises, and also several exercises that have been carried out specifically for Australia.
The Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) scenarios, and their implications for
coastal systems, are reviewed elsewhere in this volume (Nicholls et al, this volume).
An interesting feature of all of these exercises is that their scenarios fall along a spectrum
of “quality of life” or human well-being and we have grouped the scenarios in that way in
Table 1.
2.1.1 The Great Transition Initiative (Raskin et al., 2002)
An ongoing effort with its beginnings in the 1990s (Gallopín et al., 1997)
(http://gtinitiative.org/), the scenarios have changed name and number over time, but the
current set involves four major scenarios: Fortress World, Market Forces, Policy Reform,
and Great Transition.
The Fortress World scenario is a variant of a broader class of Barbarization scenarios, in
the hierarchy of the Global Scenario Group (Gallopín et al., 1997). Barbarization
scenarios envision the grim possibility that the social, economic and moral underpinnings
of civilization deteriorate, as emerging problems overwhelm the coping capacity of both
markets and policy reforms.
The Market Forces scenario is a story of a market-driven world in the 2lst Century in
which demographic, economic, environmental and technological trends unfold without
major surprise relative to unfolding trends. Continuity, globalization and convergence are
5
key characteristics of world development – institutions gradually adjust without major
ruptures, international economic integration proceeds apace and the socioeconomic
patterns of poor regions converge slowly toward the development model of the rich
regions.
The Policy Reform scenario envisions the emergence of strong political will for taking
harmonized and rapid action to ensure a successful transition to a more equitable and
environmentally resilient future. It explores the requirements for simultaneously
achieving social and environmental sustainability goals under high economic growth
conditions similar to those of Market Forces.
The Great Transition scenario explores visionary solutions to the sustainability
challenge, including new socioeconomic arrangements and fundamental changes in
values. This scenario depicts a transition to a society that preserves natural systems,
provides high levels of welfare through material sufficiency and equitable distribution,
and enjoys a strong sense of local solidarity.
An interactive web site allows users to visualize and explore the scenarios
(http://www.tellus.org/results/results_World.html). The descriptions of these scenarios in
the published books and web sites are the most extensive of the scenario studies
mentioned here, and probably the most extensive of any existing scenario exercise. The
status and trends of over 40 variables are plotted for each scenario, including several
variables related to ecosystem services (i.e. CO2 emissions, water use, forested area) and
an overall “Quality of Development Index” that is similar in structure to the Genuine
Progress Indicator (GPI) and other indices of societal well-being.
2.1.2 The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA, 2005)
The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) scenarios used the two axes of global
connectedness (from highly connected to disconnected), and approaches to ecosystem
services management (from reactive to proactive) to evaluate the future status of
ecosystem services and human well-being (MA, 2005). The two globally connected
scenarios were (1) TechnoGarden, which envisions a globally connected world relying
strongly on environmentally sound technology, using highly managed, often engineered,
ecosystems to deliver ecosystem services, and taking a proactive approach to the
management of ecosystems in an effort to avoid problems before they emerge, and (2)
Global Orchestration, which envisions a globally connected society that focuses on
global trade and economic liberalization and takes a reactive approach to ecosystem
problems, but that also takes strong steps to reduce poverty and inequality and to invest in
public goods such as infrastructure and education. The two regionalized and disconnected
scenarios were: (3) Order from Strength, which envisions a regionalized and fragmented
world, concerned with security and protection, emphasizing primarily regional markets,
paying little attention to public goods, and taking a reactive approach to ecosystem
problems, and (4) Adapting Mosaic, which envisions that regional watershed-scale
ecosystems are the focus of political and economic activity. Local institutions are
6
strengthened, local ecosystem management strategies are common, and societies develop
a strongly proactive approach to the management of ecosystems.
All but the Order from Strength scenarios showed that significant changes in policy can
partially mitigate the negative consequences of growing pressures on ecosystems, but that
the changes required are large and not currently under way. Some ecosystem services and
well-being improve in these three scenarios, but the largest increases across all services
are in the Adapting Mosaic scenario. Climate change is envisioned to affect all of the
scenarios, but to varying degrees based on policies to mitigate it.
2.1.3 Four Future Scenarios for New Zealand: Work in Progress (Landcare Research
Scenarios Working Group, 2007)
Researchers in New Zealand and an advisory group created four scenarios along the two
axes of resources (depleted or plenty) and identity (individual or cohesion). The two
plentiful resource scenarios were titled: (A) Fruits for a Few, where a focus on individual
identity leads to tight resource control, with benefits held in the private sector and costs
spread on the wider public and (B) Independent Aotearoa, where a focus on social
cohesion leads to a dynamic cohesive society, seeing itself as a global citizen. Whilst
outward looking, it remains critical and is confident enough to be distinctly different as a
South Pacific nation. The two depleted resource scenarios are: (C) New Frontiers, where
the focus on individualistic values, defined by visible financial status, rather than by
family and cultural traditions leads to a fragmented society where the losers feel there is
unfairness while the winners enjoy their freedoms as consumers and (D) Living on No. 8
Wire, where a focus on social cohesion leads government to intervene to manage trade-
offs between economic gain and environmental degradation, to increase trade barriers and
to promote equitable redistribution.
Like the Great Transition Initiative and MA scenarios, the New Zealand scenarios were
described in great detail, including their impacts on ecosystem services and quality of
life. This exercise included a survey of attitudes toward the scenarios. A group of
participants was asked in a game playing exercise about which scenario they thought
New Zealand was presently in, which scenario it was headed toward, and which scenario
they would most like to see realized. The results were quite dramatic. Most participants
thought New Zealand was currently in the Fruits for a Few scenario and that it was
headed toward the New Frontiers scenario, but that they overwhelmingly preferred the
Independent Aotearoa scenario, where quality of life was enhanced by social cohesion
and resource management.
2.1.4. Australian Scenarios
Futurist Doug Cocks invoked a fundamental choice for Australia: would it be a future
‘maker’ or a future ‘taker’? (Cocks, 1999). Cocks developed five ‘big-picture’ scenarios
for the country, three of which he considered positive pathways that could all realistically
7
achieve the goal of high quality of life for most present and future Australians, without
abandoning the current democratic, capitalist society with a mixed economy. One way to
do this is Going for Growth, whereby very high per capita income will create the money
needed to protect the environment and to eliminate poverty. An alternative pathway is
Conservative Development embraces interventionist industry policies derived from 'new
growth' thinking and faith in the capacity of government to contribute strongly to solving
the problems of low economic growth, unacceptable levels of life opportunities and poor
environmental quality through a 'tax and spend' strategy. Post-Materialism, by contrast,
involves a change in the deep structure of society, via the distribution and use of
decision-making power in organisations, institutions and social groupings. New regional
governments would increasingly edge out state governments, and worker ownership and
industrial democracy would ensure corporate social responsibility. However, two less
desirable pathways could also unfold: Struggling to Cope describes what happens when a
complex, path-dependent society like Australia encounters multiple crises in a short
amount of time. In Muddling down, quality of life declines slowly at the hands of reactive
governments which act only in response to extreme political pressure, or gridlocked
governments which who are hostages to major interest groups.
In 2005, the Business Council of Australia also developed scenarios that focused on
relationships between Australia’s diverse populations and with the rest of the world
(BCA, 2004). Using the metaphor of the ocean, scenarios were constructed around both
endogenous drivers of continued growth and dominance of Sydney and the ageing of
Australia’s population, and exogenous drivers of continued global political dominance of
the United States, and the ability of technology to remove some of the constraints arising
from the great distance between Australia and its major trading partners. These drivers
act together to create three major challenges, or uncertainties in Australia’s future, related
to: social cohesion and shared values between generations and between different cultural,
ethnic and socio-economic groups, and the stability of the Asia-Pacific region. The
Riding the Wave scenario explores the possibility of a breakdown in trust between
Australian people and institutions, Stormy Seas posits reduced security in the Asia-Pacific
region, and Changing the Crew depicts intergenerational tensions within Australia but
increased economic and cultural relatedness between the younger generation and the
world outside.
The Energy Futures Forum brought together a wide group of representatives from
energy companies, mining companies, environmental groups, banks and unions to
develop qualitative and quantitative scenarios to identify a range of plausible options for
Australia’s energy sector (Energy Futures Forum, 2006). Among the nine Energy Futures
Forum scenario narratives (Delaney, 2006), environmental crisis is most apparent in the
Day After Tomorrow scenario, with the narrative describing water wars in major rivers
around the world and conflict over access to fisheries, and in Australia, coastal inundation
and coral bleaching in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), with a subsequent loss of tourism
expected. In the Clean Green Down Under scenario, Australia by 2050 has reduced its
greenhouse gas emissions to 80 per cent below 1990 levels in response to several major
climate events in the early 2010s that bring about the end of global opposition to
addressing climate change. Power to the People reveals how new farming practices (i.e.
8
aquaculture and organic crops) develop in Australia in response to ecological change,
such as more extreme climate patterns, further outbreaks of diseases and the need to
curtail water consumption. In Centralised Failure, climate change and high adaptation
costs bring smaller towns and even Canberra to the point of collapse, requiring the capital
to be relocated to a less drought-prone location.
The Avon River Basin scenario project (O’Connor et al., 2004) in the Western Australia
Wheatbelt sought to identify critical issues and drivers of change relevant to community
efforts to improve the regional prospects for present and future generations of the basin to
2050. The process, convened by a Wheatbelt resident and landholder, identified twenty-
two critical drivers of change, which included land, infrastructure, alternate fuels,
education, plant industries and demographics. In a ranking exercise, project participants
identified access to new markets and whether environmental problems (namely salinity)
improve or degrade as the most uncertain and important drivers. In Grain and Drain,
salinity damages infrastructure, elevating repair costs, while climate change (of 3-6
degrees C across the basin) and rising sea levels encourage some Perth residents to settle
in the Avon River Basin. In Saline Growth, similar temperatures increases are
experienced but society responds proactively through social and economic
diversification. The Landcare Bounty and Harmony with Prosperity scenarios describe
slower environmental decline, with temperatures increasing only 1-2 degrees C, and
focus respectively on sustainable land use and developing new markets.
Scenarios conducted for the GBR include WWF Australia and the Queensland Tourism
Industry Council’s scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)
of the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change. The WWF approach to scenarios was
to focus on what they considered to be credible eventualities in order to plan responses,
rather than to explore uncertainties. They developed successive storylines for Australia,
the GBR, reef-based industries (tourism and fisheries), and other industries driving the
regional economies, culminating in numerical projections for each scenario for tourism
and fisheries and the economic impact on five GBR regions (Hoegh-Guldberg and
Hoegh-Guldberg, 2008).
Another scenarios initiative for the GBR was undertaken by CSIRO (Bohnet et al., 2008).
The scenarios were developed for the catchment-to-reef system based on a literature
review and interviews with more than 40 regional leaders from academia, government,
non-governmental organisations and industry. These scenarios focused on the two key
uncertainties that were most frequently mentioned in the interviews: the nature and
timing of a climate change event (whether a major climate event, such as a Category 5
cyclone, occurs within the next five years or is delayed until later), and the nature of
regional governance (whether driven mainly by environmental concerns in the region or
by the global economy). The plausibility of the scenarios and their implications for
research and knowledge, environmental regulation, infrastructure and planning, industry,
production systems and Indigenous livelihoods were explored with key GBR
stakeholders, including policy-makers, natural resource managers, Traditional Owners,
science advisors and industry representatives, in a one-day workshop.
9
2.2 Great Barrier Reef Study Site
The Great Barrier Reef (Fig. 1.) spans 2300 km of Australia’s northeast coast, and covers
an area of approximately 348,000 square kilometres. Supporting a diversity of marine
life, it has been protected as a Marine Park since 1975 and as a World Heritage Area
since 1981. The contribution of the GBR to the Australian economy was estimated to be
AUD5.4 billion p.a. in 2006-2007 (Access Economics, 2008), or 4.7% to Australia’s
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2007-2008 (Oxford Economics, 2009). This consisted
mostly of tourism (AUD6 billion p.a.), followed by recreational (AUD623 million p.a.)
and commercial fishing (AUD251 million p.a.), which together employ approximately
66,000 people. Shipping activity through the GBR is a vital link in the production chain
for many industries and services in regional centres. The GBR has high cultural value for
Indigenous Australians, internationally important iconic and scientific value (GBRMPA,
2009) and is part of the Australian national identity (Young and Temperton, 2008).
The adjacent catchment area (426,000km2), covering about 22% of the state of
Queensland, supports some of the most diverse and treasured landscapes on the
Australian continent, including the tropical rainforests of the Wet Tropics World Heritage
Area, drier tropical and subtropical savannahs, mountain ranges and coastal plains. The
main land uses include cattle grazing (about 75% of the catchment area), natural forests,
production forestry, intensive agriculture, cropping, sugarcane cultivation, horticulture,
mining and urban areas. The current population of the catchments is approximately 1.12
million and is expected to grow to 1.58 by 2026 (OESR 2008), fuelled largely by mining
and industrial activity.
Management and protection of natural resources in the marine park is the responsibility
of the federal agency GBRMPA together with the Queensland Government’s Department
of Environment and Resource Management and Queensland Primary Industry and
Fisheries. The GBR catchment is primarily the responsibility of the Queensland
Government. Notably, the Australian Government funds seven regional Natural Resource
Management (NRM) organisations to support community-based initiatives within the
GBR catchment. Response to climate change affecting the marine park is managed by the
GBRMPA, and broader aspects of climate change by the Australian Department of
Climate Change. Since 2003, water quality has been addressed by the Reef Water Quality
Protection Plan (Reef Plan) (Australian Government and Queensland Government, 2003)
and Reef Rescue (Australian Labour Party, 2007).
2.3 Development of GBR scenarios
Scenarios for the GBR region were developed during three days of a two-week workshop
in October 2009 attended by scientists and representatives from the GBRMPA and the
Queensland Government to discuss an approach for identifying, valuing and managing
ecosystem services in the GBR and adjacent catchments. Scenarios were developed by a
team of local and international biophysical and social scientists from research and
government institutions (the authors of this paper) to better understand key uncertainties
10
about the future that may lead to trade-offs in the quantity, quality and flows of
ecosystem services, and implications for human well-being (Fig. 2). We were interested
in the drivers of climate change at the global scale and of mitigation at national, regional
and local scales, which we see as essentially stemming from the same uncertainty: the
underlying worldviews and values related to societal development. Thus scenarios
focused on this uncertainty rather than climate change projections themselves.
We evaluated the scenarios in terms of outcomes for marine and terrestrial ecosystems, as
measured by coral cover and land cover/use, respectively. We then evaluated
provisioning, regulating, supporting and cultural services provided by these ecosystems
(MA, 2005), and human well-being. We translated ecosystem services and human well-
being into ‘capitals’, or stocks with the potential to yield a flow of benefits (Costanza and
Daly, 1992; Abel et al., 2006), as we were interested in the potential and adaptive
capacity as well as the current states of biophysical and social system components, and
because this allows both conceptual and quantitative comparison of components. Hence,
we treated ecosystem services as natural capital, and human well-being as the sum of
natural, human, social and built capitals.
As discussed above, we first reviewed other global, national and regional scenario
exercises to determine if they could be used or modified. However, none of the existing
scenario exercises was completely aligned with our objectives. Hoegh-Guldberg and
Hoegh-Guldberg (2008) considered climate change projections for the GBR World
Heritage Area and selected industries only, but without developing narratives that
explored implications and feedbacks. Bohnet et al. (2008) explored narratives of climate
change in combination with governance, and focused on the catchment and reef, but these
were not adequately specific in their definition of climate events or global economic
drivers.
We followed a common scenario-planning approach of developing four scenarios around
two axes of uncertainty (Wack, 1985; MA, 2005). We chose the year 2100 as the
endpoint for our scenarios to explore societal responses to climate change over a longer
period, and to retain consistency with the timeline of projections in the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 4th Assessment Report.
11
2.3.1 Axis 1: Empty World/Full World: Globe
Our first axis depicts two pathways for global development. One, the mainstream model
of development, is based on a number of assumptions created during a period when the
world was still relatively empty of humans and their built infrastructure. In this “empty
world” context, built capital was the limiting factor, while natural, human and social
capital were often abundant (Costanza, 2008). During this period, environmental and
social “externalities” were assumed to be relatively small and irrelevant, the economy
was seen to consist of only marketed goods and services and it was desirable to increase
production and consumption of these. In this context, the use of gross domestic product
(GDP) as a primary measure of human well-being, and one which could be compared
across nations, became a logical outcome.
The second pathway is that of the dramatically different “full world,” now dominated by
humans and their built capital. An alternative model of development reconceptualises the
nature and purpose of the economy, with its primary goal to sustainably improve human
well-being and quality of life. Material consumption is merely means to that end, not
ends in themselves. Material consumption in excess of basic needs can actually reduce
physical and psychological well-being, while natural, human and social capital are now
the limiting factors to sustainable human well-being in many countries. In this context,
the Genuine Progress Indicator (GPI) is a more appropriate measure of well-being. GPI
accounts for both positive and negative components of marketed economic activity,
adding in estimates of the value of non-marketed goods and services provided by natural,
human and social capital, and adjusts for income-distribution effects. While it is by no
means a complete representation of the well-being of nations, GPI is a much more
holistic measure than GDP (Talberth et al., 2007).
These two development pathways yield two options for global climate change. The first
option follows the IPCC’s SRES A1 scenario storyline (Nakicenovic and Swart 2000,
Nicholls et al. this volume), which describes a future world of very rapid economic
growth, global population that peaks in mid-century and declines thereafter, and the rapid
introduction of new and more efficient technologies. In this scenario, CO2 is projected to
reach 850 ppm and mean surface air temperatures to increase by at least 3°C by 2100
(IPCC 2007). Although there is uncertainty associated with these projections, they are
based on the best available understanding, and as such are the best present estimates of
global climate change impacts on the GBR.
The second option is that an international climate agreement enables CO2 levels to return
to 350 ppm, representing a 50 - 80% reduction in 1990 levels, and temperatures to not
increase by more than 2°C, by 2100. This is the widely-supported target for CO2 as the
upper limit considered necessary for sustaining a planet “similar to the one on which
civilization developed and to which life on earth is adapted” (Hansen et al., 2008), but
climate policies to achieve this target have not yet been accounted for in the SRES
scenarios (IPCC 2007).
12
2.3.2 Axis 2: Empty World/Full World: Australia
Our second axis reflects the degree to which Australia’s pathway of development follows
the “empty world” or the “full world”, and influences how regional and local pressures on
the GBR are mitigated.
Australia may or may not conform to the given global development pathway. Throughout
its history, Australia’s has displayed a unique brand of independence due in part to its
geographic isolation, now being rapidly overcome by the close links it is forging with a
global economy, politics and culture (James, 2007; Stevenson, 2007). Australia’s future
very much depends on how it defines, and sustains, itself as a nation in a relatively
remote but highly diverse, rapidly changing corner of the world (Gray and Lawrence,
2001; Cork and Delaney, 2005).
Resource management in Australia has been historically dominated by the belief that
‘economic development is a good thing’ (Cocks, 1999), but some longstanding traditions,
such as agricultural land use, are dissolving due to changing perceptions as well as global
contexts (Dunlop et al., 2002; Christoff, in press). Australia may continue on its historical
trajectory or it can move towards broader concepts of welfare that include ecosystem
services and human well-being. While the idea that alternative measures are needed to
evaluate and make regional comparisons of well-being is gaining ground globally (MA,
2003) and in some nations (Landcare Research Scenarios Working Group, 2007), in
Australia and the GBR, a paradigm that underpins such measures and their application in
management and governance is not clearly evident at present. While such a choice lies
mainly in the hands of national government, there is room for regional decision-makers to
influence this choice on the basis that the GBR is an irreplaceable national as well as
global asset.
2.3.3 Combining two uncertainties
Four scenarios were developed and named as follows (Fig. 3): 1) Trashing the Commons:
Both the world and Australia follow an Empty World path, and climate emissions reach
850ppm by 2100, 2) Treading Water: The world follows an Empty World path, and
climate emissions reach 850 ppm by 2100, but Australia follows a Full World path, 3)
Free Riders: The world follows a Full World path, and climate emissions reduce to
350ppm by 2100, but Australia follows an Empty World path, and 4) Best of Both
Worlds: Both the world and Australia follow a Full World path, and climate emissions
reduce to 350ppm by 2100.
2.4 Evaluation of implications for marine and terrestrial ecosystems
To assess the outcomes of the scenarios for marine and terrestrial ecosystems, we
modelled future coral cover and land cover/use.
13
2.4.1 Coral cover
Coral cover was estimated to the year 2100 using the HOME ecohydrology model
(Wolanski et al., 2004; Wolanski and De’ath, 2005). The model represents the average
coral cover of 261 reefs in the GBR between Bowen and Lizard Island, with the ecology
determined by herbivorous fish, algae, corals and crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS)
(Acanthaster planci), a coral predator which can form very large numbers, leading to
outbreaks. The ecosystem is forced by (1) riverine fine sediment, (2) nutrients and
turbidity increasing as a result of land use and transient river floods, (3) occasional
tropical cyclones, and (4) bleaching events in summer from climate change (warming and
ocean acidification).
We note several caveats in interpreting the HOME model which may make these
predictions optimistic; namely:
1) The model does not include ocean acidification. Although it has slowed coral
growth (De’ath et al., 2009), ignoring acidification may be justified in scenarios in
which CO2 stays at 350 ppm.
2) It assumes that rainfall and the frequency and intensity of floods and cyclones will
in the future remain the same as in the period 1969-2002 (for which there are data).
Coral cover could be less than predicted if flood or cyclone frequency and/or intensity
increases.
3) It assumes no change in the future in the wind field during coral mass spawning
(i.e. the 1969-2002 variability remains unchanged); this controls the connectivity
between reefs and the resilience of coral reefs. Data are unavailable to test this
hypothesis.
4) In the model the coral death rate from bleaching is that experienced in the two
GBR coral mass bleaching events during the last 10 years. This mortality was much
less than that in other places such as the Seychelles in the 1998 global coral bleaching
event.
5) Each reef is given the same weight when calculating the average.
2.4.2 Landcover/use
A base map was developed for the GBR catchment from a series of data sets (QEPA
2005, QDNRW 2006a,b, Witte et al., 2006). To reduce complexity in the map, related
land covers and uses were combined; the resulting base map for the GBR catchment
contains 14 categories, which were appended to a map of coral cover (Fig. 4). Land use
and remnant vegetation cover as at 2003 in the GBR catchment was mapped to provide
the baseline for developing projections for the GBR catchment in 2100. Local knowledge
of the GBR catchment among the scenario development team informed the development
of the projections, as an analysis based on time-series data for terrestrial ecosystems was
beyond the scope of this exercise. Simple deterministic rules and assumptions for
converting natural areas and agricultural land to more intensive uses were developed
within the group and through expert opinion. The land cover/use classes were grouped
14
into four categories (cover types) which included: natural terrestrial ecosystems, coastal
ecosystems, marine ecosystems and agricultural/urban areas.
2.5. Indicator Selection
Increasing emphasis is being placed on developing ‘Quality of Life’ indicators to reflect
improvements in the ‘...quality of human life while living within the carrying capacity of
the supporting ecosystems’ (Costanza et al., 2009). These have direct relevance to both
individuals and societies as they reflect concerns about where to live and how to live
(Diener and Suh, 1997). Whether an individual has the capacity to change their personal
circumstances depends on the prevailing political, cultural and social norms relating to
resource access, together with an individual’s class, gender, ethnicity, age and religion
(Ostrom, 1999). In this exercise, we chose Quality of Life indicators to help make
decisions about which scenario would be preferable and why.
In studies that measure well-being, two choices need to be made: one relates to the
selection of key indicators while the other considers the relative weights of each (Larson,
2009). During the workshop, expert judgment from participants informed the selection of
indicators; however, no attempt was made to assign weights. In most cases, the selection
of indicators and their weights are chosen according to expert judgment. In other
research, Larson (2009) suggested that stakeholders be invited to weight possible
indicators according to their priorities and that these weightings could help in
communicating stakeholders’ priorities to policymakers (Larson, 2009).
The indicators we selected sit within human, social, built and natural capitals.
2.5.1 Natural capital
Natural capital consists of four categories of ecosystem services (MA 2003) provided by
marine and terrestrial ecosystems: (1) provisioning services, or tangible benefits obtained
from ecosystems such as water, food, timber, and minerals; (2) regulating services that
regulate ecosystem processes such as climate, water quality, and air; (3) supporting
services, which include processes such as soil formation, photosynthesis, and nutrient
cycling; and (4) cultural services that provide recreational, aesthetic, or spiritual benefits.
Using expert opinion amongst workshop participants, qualitative changes in the
conditions of the services provided by terrestrial and marine ecosystems were projected
in the four scenarios.
2.5.2 Human capital
The human capital indicators considered were health, education, professional skills, job
security and population. Health includes access to clean air and water, sufficient
nutritious food, feeling well, access to health care facilities, work/life balance and mental
health (MA, 2003). We also considered health issues that result from increasing global
15
temperatures, such as mosquito-borne diseases, which could become more widespread in
the region (Bryan et al., 1996). However, due to time constraints, we did not consider a
whole range of potential health problems associated with climate change including
human responses to increased daily temperatures (McMichael et al., 2006).
The education indicator is the quality and interest in general education at all levels. We
included professional skills as a separate indicator, using the rationale that in some
scenarios, general education would be less valued than professional skills developed in
the work place which would result in higher personal income, and possibly greater job
security. Job security implies that workers are shielded from fluctuating labour markets
and compensated for geographic mobility, training and other costs associated with
employment (Allard, 2005). Population is another important indicator as population is
expected to drive each of the other human capital indicators; in this analysis we focused
only on numbers, not structure. Furthermore, population projections for the GBR region
are not readily available beyond 2050 (OESR, 2008). The effect of climate change might
lead to an influx of climate change refugees (Garnaut, 2008). However, even estimating
numbers of refugees only is a complex task as we need to account for both the capacity of
people to move and the legal frameworks of potential host countries (Garnaut, 2008).
2.5.3 Social capital
For social capital, we identified equity, participatory democracy, social networks, culture
and institutional arrangements as key indicators. Equity, meaning the fair distribution of
rewards and resources (Leventhal, 1980) would vary in each scenario according to
prevailing local and global commitments to social justice. We largely equated
participation with rates of volunteerism (Putnam, 2000). Networks and social ties are
essential components of social capital, generated when individuals cooperate for mutual
benefit (Putnam, 1993). Networks would comprise both communities of interest
(including online communities) as well as communities of place. Culture was identified
as a key indicator to represent expressions and celebrations of cultural diversity including
Indigenous culture. The culture indicator also encapsulates a person’s sense of belonging
and identity.
Within the social capital domain, security is a key driver for decision-making related to
climate refugees in the GBR region. This indicator is important on two levels: firstly in
terms of personal and group tensions among different refugees and locals and secondly
the impact of erratic weather patterns on human safety and well being. Finally, we
included institutions to envision the impact of various institutional arrangements for each
scenario.
2.5.4 Built capital
Built capital includes infrastructure, equipment and technological improvements (Nelson
et al., 2007). We divided the built capital domain into quantity and quality measures. Our
indicator for quantity included infrastructure and equipment required in each scenario,
taking into consideration population pressures due to climate refuges and likely
16
prevailing population policies. The indicator for quality assessed the properties of this
built capital in terms of ecological footprint; methods of resource extraction (either
extractive or more restorative methods). We also considered the quality of new
technology in terms of its ecological footprint.
Each indicator of natural, human, social and built capital was given equal weight, as we
lacked appropriate information, such as stakeholder rankings, that could allow weights to
be assigned.
3. Results
3.1 Scenario Narratives
We developed narratives that described how each of the four scenarios would unfold
(Table 1). Key scenario characteristics are presented in summary form in Table 2.
Impacts of the key drivers on supporting, provisioning, regulating and cultural ecosystem
services provided by terrestrial and marine ecosystems for the four scenarios are
summarised in Table 3.
3.2 Implications for marine and terrestrial ecosystems
3.2.1 Coral cover projections
The time-series plot of the predicted average coral cover on 261 reefs between Bowen
and Lizard Island for the four scenarios is shown in Fig. 5.
The scenarios depict four options for coral cover in the GBR by 2100:
1) If global climate change is managed and mitigated through regional-scale catchment
management, coral cover will be similar in 2100 to what it is now (Best of Both Worlds);
2) If global climate change is not managed, but mitigated at a regional scale, there will be
a very minimal level of coral cover (Treading Water);
3) If global climate change is managed but not mitigated at a regional scale, there will be
an intermediate level of coral cover (Free Riders);
4) If global climate change is neither managed nor mitigated, there will be no coral cover
(Trashing the Commons).
What we can also observe is a ‘flip’at about mid-century, where the trajectory of coral
cover in the Treading Water scenario is completely altered and it begins to decline from
near-present levels. In interpreting the projections, the following model assumptions need
to be borne in mind:
17
While corals will bleach more often from global warming, the resulting mortality rate is
assumed small (i.e., based on GBR historical data). The model further assumes that
mortality from bleaching in scenarios with 2 degrees warming will not be greater than
observed in 1998 and 2002 (+0.7°C warming), events that resulted in ~5% death of
existing corals each time. Thus, the model results rely on the assumption that corals will
gradually adapt to warming waters and remain insensitive to ocean acidification. If
mortality from coral bleaching remained at 5% every 4 years as the model assumes, a reef
may still sustain some coral cover as coral cover can increase by 1-2% per year, if crown-
of-thorns outbreaks become infrequent. However, there is presently no evidence for
corals adapting to warming waters.
Management of land use will bring some life back to inshore coral reefs; this increases
the average coral cover even if coral cover of offshore reefs decreases. Increasing coral
cover up until 2050 in the Best of Both Worlds and Treading Water scenarios assumes
that water quality will be greatly improved such that outbreaks of COTS – presently the
greatest source of coral mortality – will become rare.
The initial increase in average coral cover in the Treading Water scenario is due to
improvement of inshore reefs until ultimately bleaching decreases cover of all reefs by
2100. This assumes that offshore reefs decline all the time, inshore reefs increase to reach
a maximum by 2050, and that all reefs are in decline from 2050 to 2100 as they are
affected by frequent bleaching from increased temperatures between 2050 and 2100.
Coral cover would also be lower than predicted by the HOME model in the Trashing the
Commons and Treading Water scenarios if acidification is taken into account, or if the
frequency and/or intensity of cyclones and floods in the GBR increase, as some climate
models predict.
3.2.2 Landcover/use
Changes in the extent of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in 2100 relative to the present
are summarized for each of the four scenarios (Table 4). The main trends are an
intensification of current agricultural and urban land use in Trashing the Commons and
Free Riders, accompanied by a decline in coastal and marine ecosystems, grazing and
production forestry. Diversification into a mix of land uses in Treading Water and Best of
Both Worlds allows the extent of some coastal and marine ecosystems to remain at or
return to present levels, though a number of ecosystem types continue to decline in
Treading Water.
3.3 Implications for four capitals
Change in the four capitals (natural, social, human, and built), which collectively
comprise human well-being, and in components of these capitals that comprise the
economic subset of overall well-being in the four scenarios, is shown in Table 5. Change
in natural capital was calculated as the average change in the condition of both terrestrial
and marine ecosystem services that is outlined in more detail in Table 4. Arrows were
used to indicate an increase or decrease in the capitals.
18
A summary well-being indicator was created by summing the arrows for the four
scenarios. This indicator showed that overall well-being was lowest within Trashing the
Commons, followed by Free Riders, Treading Water and the Best of Both Worlds. An
economic subset indicator was created by adding the arrows indicating relative change in
population and the arrows indicating the relative change in the quantity of built capital.
The graph of these two indicators for the four scenarios depicts an inverse linear
relationship (R2 = 0.92) between the summary well-being and economic subset indicators
(Fig. 6.) We emphasize that the comparative ratios of these measures in the four scenarios
are of interest, rather than a comparison of the two types of indicators, given the unequal
numbers of indicators contributing to each measure. We further note the need for caution
in interpreting this figure given the small number of data points (n = 4).
4. Discussion
4.1 Analysis of scenarios
While Trashing the Commons and Best of Both Worlds represent distinctly different
futures for the GBR, the other two scenarios diverge in ways that reveal much about the
dynamics that may shape the future of the region. We revisit our conceptual framework to
discuss results of the four scenarios, beginning with ecosystems.
For marine ecosystems, the model suggests that until 2050, mitigation of climate change
impacts on reefs through regional land management has a good chance of maintaining
coral cover. After 2050, the effects of global climate change are likely to outweigh
regional mitigation, as evident from the much higher levels of coral cover in Free Riders
than in Treading Water. Despite this, Treading Water illustrates that it is possible to
maintain a minimal amount of coral reef by the end of the century even in the absence of
a change in global climate change policy. However, there are probable threshold levels
for coral cover, beyond which the GBR will become a fundamentally different system by
2100 if climate change reaches the upper levels described in the Trashing the Commons
and Treading Water scenarios.
In terrestrial systems, ecosystem types exhibit unique responses to the four scenarios;
natural forest responds negatively to climate change (declines in Trashing the Commons
and Treading Water) but has great potential to increase where there is effective land
management and minimal climate change (Best of Both Worlds). Some ecosystem types
appear to be more sensitive to climate change than to intensive or inadequate land
management (i.e., natural forest, lakes and rivers, marshes and wetlands), while for others
the opposite is true (i.e., mangroves, swamps). This suggests that management that can
respond to pressures at both scales is needed to maintain the full range of terrestrial
ecosystem types. Links between marine and terrestrial ecosystems also need to be taken
into account, which were not feasible to address in depth in this analysis as we lacked
time series data for terrestrial ecosystems. Increased agriculture and urban land use in the
19
catchment is likely to erode marine and terrestrial ecosystem services, but relationships
between catchment activities and water quality in marine systems remain somewhat less
tractable (Fabricius and De’ath, 2004, Brodie et al., 2007).
Ecosystems and their services are essential support systems for human well-being, yet the
relationships between them are complex (MA, 2003). This is illustrated by the changes in
the four capitals in the four scenarios. At best, increases in natural capital (i.e., the four
categories of ecosystem services) are moderate, but increases in some of the human and
social capital indicators are more substantial (e.g. health and institutions). While
conditions of ecosystem services can decline rapidly, recovery is often very slow, if it
happens at all (Scheffer et al., 2001). Meanwhile, aspects of social and human capital can
improve rapidly. For example, health improves in Treading Water even though all
ecosystem services decrease. In Free Riders and Trashing the Commons, on the other
hand, health declines, which may be linked to declines in ecosystem services. It is worth
noting that in Trashing the Commons, in which all ecosystem services decline the most,
indicators of equity, participation, security, education, health, job security and quality of
the built environment are also at their lowest levels. Thus, we see that modest
improvements in human well-being are possible even while ecosystem services decline,
but only where there is strong regional management. In a departure from this trend,
cultural ecosystem services are worse off in Treading Water than Free Riders, as
biodiversity values decline as a result of climate change.
Population and built capital (e.g. our economic subset indicators) are the same in Free
Riders and Treading Water, but outcomes for the GBR in terms of total well-being by
2100 are better in Treading Water than in Free Riders, reflecting regional actions to
improve ecosystem services and well-being, and higher levels of human and social
capital. Trashing the Commons and Best of Both Worlds occupy opposite ends of a
continuum between total well-being and economic well-being, signifying that one end
cannot be achieved without compromising the other.
Impacts on ecosystem services and human well-being in turn have feedbacks on drivers
and in essence become drivers for further change. Adaptation, which may mediate global
impacts on natural, social, human or built capital, is likely to be key in these scenarios,
and can in fact prompt a change in course from one scenario to another. For example, in
Free Riders, in which Australia becomes a Pariah state in the eyes of the world, a more
limited export market drives innovation and resourcefulness. In Trashing the Commons,
individuals may eventually take action to improve a compromised sense of well-being.
Alternatively, a trigger for change may come from ecological crisis (Gunderson et al.,
2002). When such action reaches a tipping point, change may begin to occur in policies
and management practices. Hence, a seemingly undesirable pathway can become a
desirable one if crisis inspires positive change; however, some irreversible damage may
happen along the way. Better understanding is needed of such adaptations among
individuals and industries in the GBR, and indeed, their adaptive capacity.
4.2 Implications for management of GBR
20
Following the Free Riders pathway—that is, failing to mitigate climate change at a
regional scale although global climate change is being managed—in the belief that the
reef will be moderately intact by 2100 as long as the rest of the world is doing its part in
combating global climate change falls afoul of ‘short-termism’ (Cocks, 1999). There are
many uncertainties associated with both ecological and social resilience and adaptation to
climate change impacts and their possible interactions across scales. Our scenario
analysis may be optimistic (or pessimistic); we simply do not know with any certainty if
there is a point of no return, beyond which the writing is on the wall with regard to
climate change and the GBR.
There are additional arguments for a proactive approach to climate change mitigation:
one is based on the benefits for terrestrial ecosystems in the catchment and the many
industries that depend on them (Marshall, 2010), and a second on the benefits for health,
security, culture and other components of human well-being. Furthermore, empirical data
and models indicate that threats to the GBR clearly need to be addressed in an integrated
way, such that the whole social-ecological system is recognised (Olsson et al., 2008).
Global climate change is not easily addressed at regional and local scales, and yet this is
where many of the pressures are most profoundly felt (Wilbanks and Kates, 1999). This
analysis points to a need to design management responses for the GBR region that
account for cross-scale processes even if appropriate global responses (and institutions)
do not exist. It also implies that responses of other actors, such as civil society and
industry, may need to play a role. Though less frequently stated, there must also be
temporal scale matching of institutions and the processes they are intended to address so
that they can adequately capture feedback (Wilson, 2006), and so that the current short-
term focus of management is superseded by one imbued with vision and foresight.
5. Conclusion
This approach to scenarios is novel for the GBR in several ways: 1) global climate
change projections were downscaled for the region; 2) a combination of qualitative and
quantitative scenarios were developed that explored the region as a whole, rather than
focusing only on catchments, reef ecosystems or economic sectors; 3) the scenarios were
framed by the key uncertainties underlying climate change in the GBR – global and
Australian development pathways. It is this third aspect in particular that is especially
important, as uncertainties related to worldviews are those that often lead to abrupt,
surprising outcomes (Janssen 2002).
Below we describe some potential avenues for using these scenarios further and in ways
that engage with a broad swathe of GBR stakeholders. While some approaches to
scenario planning involve participatory processes with stakeholders from the onset, and
indeed are even initiated by them (O’Connor et al., 2004), our scenarios were developed
in a short amount of time among a small group of scientists and with limited input from
government, industry and other stakeholders. Where the objective of scenarios is
primarily to enhance scientific understanding of dynamics that may shape the future, such
a scientist-driven approach may be appropriate (Biggs et al., 2007).
21
We see much value in these scenarios for enhancing, and challenging, our own scientific
understanding, and enabling identification of information gaps so that we can prioritize
information needs and investment in data collection efforts. Yet they also provide a
launching pad for a participatory process of resolving information gaps and developing a
shared GBR-wide future vision. Aspects of the scenarios for which scientific knowledge
is highly uncertain either due to lack of information or stochasticity may be improved by
stakeholder perspectives on future uncertainty. Indeed, the framing of these scenarios
reflects a group of scientist’s views of major drivers and uncertainties, which may differ
from, and be greatly enriched by, those of other stakeholders.
In a participatory process, scenarios can provide a vehicle to discuss, evaluate and
compare future alternatives in ways that are meaningful to participants. A subsequent
phase of the process might involve extensive dissemination of these refined scenarios and
broad participation in their use and refinement. For example, in New Zealand, a scenarios
game has been used as a means of engaging stakeholders in the process of scenario
creation (Landcare Research Scenarios Working Group, 2007) and has encouraged
discussion and debate around four future visions. The game incorporates a feedback
process that allows consensus building around preferred scenarios. Elsewhere, visual
representations of different scenarios may be useful in this regard (Bohnet and Smith,
2007; Shaw et al., 2009).
At a policy level, such a participatory process can help GBR decision-makers to
understand and re-examine society’s—and indeed, their own—preferences for the
direction of the future, and to better develop practices and policies that are most likely to
achieve desired scenarios and avoid those which are perceived to be undesirable. A great
benefit of scenarios lies in their ability to raise awareness of drivers of change that are not
on the day-to-day agenda, and are seemingly beyond the control, of many regional
decision-makers. As Doug Cocks observed:
‘Tomorrow’s world may be a bugger of a place which we can do little to avoid but, if
we try to make it better, it is unlikely to be worse than if we had not tried. We are both
future makers and future takers. We are constantly adapting and reacting to powerful
social, political, economic and environmental forces. If, at the end of the present
inquiry, we cannot avoid concluding that the future is being determined by powerful
irresistible forces we do not like—all take and no make—then such knowledge might
at least lessen the pain of living with the consequences (Cocks, 1999)
As Australia and the GBR region engage in climate policy and mitigation processes, this
analysis underscores the need to adopt more proactive precautionary attitudes to dealing
with uncertainty, beginning with the fundamental acknowledgement that it exists. The
future is undeniably uncertain; what will matter is whether the region is prepared to
accept uncertainty, and if not, what kind of outcomes the region is willing to live with as
a consequence.
Acknowledgements:
22
Participants in the Great Barrier Reef Catchment and Reef Ecosystem Services Atelier in
Townsville in October 2009, particularly Colette Thomas, Paul Havemann and Max
Finlayson, are thanked for their input into the scenario development during the workshop
and contributions to the initial manuscript. Helpful criticism was provided by Ingrid van
Putten and Martijn van Grieken who reviewed the draft manuscript. We thank James
Cook University, CSIRO, the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, and the
Australian Institute of Marine Science for sponsoring the Atelier.
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Figure captions
Fig. 1. Location of the Great Barrier Reef region.
Fig. 2. Conceptual framework for analysis. Scenarios were used to explore two key
drivers of change: the global development pathway, which influences global climate
change, and the Australian development pathway, which influences climate mitigation at
the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) scale, and how these might impact on terrestrial and marine
ecosystems in the GBR, ecosystem services and human well-being. Natural capital
comprises four categories of ecosystem services (MA 2005), which together with human,
social and built capitals contributes to human well-being.
Fig. 3. Four scenarios were developed from combinations of alternative development
pathways for the world and for Australia.
Fig. 4. Land cover/use in the GBR catchment and coral cover. Landcover/use data are
from QEPA (2005); QDNRW (2006a,b); Witte et al. (2006).
Fig. 5. The predicted average coral cover on 261 reefs between Bowen and Lizard Island
to 2100 for the four scenarios: TC = Trashing the Commons, TW = Treading Water, FR =
Free Riders, BBW = Best of Both Worlds. Observational data are from Bruno and Selig
(2007).
Fig. 6. Summary well-being indicator plotted against economic subset indicator for the
four scenarios in 2100. Indicators were derived from Table 5. R2=0.92.
Table captions (where not provided with tables)
Table 4 Change in extent of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in 2100 relative to the
present for each scenario. Upward-pointing arrows indicate an increase in the extent of a
type of land cover/use, and downward-pointing arrows indicate a decrease. The number
of arrows (between 1 and 5) indicates the amount of change. Arrows pointing left and
right indicate no change.
Table 5 Change in four capitals in 2100 relative to the present, averaged for terrestrial
and marine ecosystems, for each scenario. Upward-pointing arrows signify an increase in
the value of an indicator, and downward-pointing arrows signify a decrease. The number
of arrows (between 1 and 5) indicates the amount of change. Arrows pointing left and
right indicate no change. The summary well-being indicator was calculated by summing
upward arrows (each equivalent to +1) and downward arrows (each equivalent to -1) for
all indicators. The economic subset indicator was calculated by summing the arrows for
population and quantity of built capital.
32
Table 1. A selection of previous scenario planning exercises with the scenarios arranged in
order of decreasing quality of life.
Overall Quality of Life of the Scenario
Scenario
exercise Most desirable
(highest quality
of life)
Intermediate
(based on
cooperation)
Intermediate
(based on
individuals and
markets)
Least Desirable
(lowest quality
of life)
South Africa
(Mont Fleur)
1992
Flight of the
Flamingos
Icarus Lame Duck Ostrich
Costanza, 2000 Ecotopia Big Government Star Trek Mad Max
Special Report on
Emissions
Scenarios (SRES)
‘‘B2 World’’
(local
stewardship)
‘‘B1 World’’
(global
sustainability)
‘‘A1 World’’
(world markets)
‘‘A2 World’’
(national
enterprise)
Millennium
Assessment
Adapting Mosic Global
Orchestration
TechnoGarden Order from
Strength
Great Transition
Initiative
Great Transition Policy Reform Market Forces Fortress World
New Zealand Independent
Aotearoa
Living on No. 8
Wire
New Frontiers Fruits for a Few
Great Barrier
Reef Best of Both
Worlds
Treading Water Free Riding Trashing the
Commons
33
Table 2. GBR scenario narratives
Trashing the Commons
Australia and the rest of the world continue to pursue the
‘empty-world’ development pathway, focused on
increasing economic growth. By 2100 global warming has
exceeded 3.5°C, sea level has risen by 1 m, cyclones have
increased in intensity, marine waters are less alkaline (pH
7.7) and rainfall in GBR catchments has become more
erratic. The population of the GBR catchment has reached
3 million, a result of agricultural and mineral industry
expansion and intensification, urban growth and climate
refugees from both southern Australia and Asia-Pacific
region. Global and national demand for food and minerals
remains high, fuelling economic growth based on
expanded irrigation and extractive industries, and is
serviced by increased but poorly-designed infrastructure.
Corals have largely disappeared, and reefs have become
algae-dominated. Pollution, overfishing and a lack of
corals for shelter reduce fish biomass and diversity by 80%
since 2010. Coasts and islands have receded due to sea
level rise, and swamps and marshlands have been polluted
or reclaimed to accommodate the growing population.
Terrestrial biodiversity also declines substantially, with
biodiversity extinctions in the Wet Tropics, tree loss across
the savannah from land clearing and drought, and the
proliferation of invasive species. Clearing of native
vegetation including mangroves, though previously
prohibited, has resumed. Increasing demand for freshwater
has drawn down the groundwater, requiring increased dam
building and water transfers, resulting in reduced natural
flow regimes. Desalination plants increase. Grazing and
production forests suffer from erratic rainfall patterns
resulting in more frequent and intense droughts and floods.
By 2100, extractive use of ecosystems takes a massive toll
on supporting, regulating and cultural ecosystem services,
and the condition of provisioning services also declines,
even though quantities produced of food, water supplies,
minerals and farmed fish are at an all-time high. The
international tourism industry shifts from biodiversity to
beaches, casinos, theme parks and shopping worlds. High-
impact aquaculture becomes the primary marine use.
Shipping activity through GBR waters has trebled with
new ports, mines and export markets for eagerly-sought
Queensland coal. Concern about ecosystem health has
reduced as political agendas and media attention target
other issues. This, in combination with population
pressure, a focus on irrigation for agricultural outputs and
erratic rainfall, results in severe decline in the quality and
quantity of freshwater and marine water quality.
With top-down plutocratic governance and dominance of
multi-national companies, income disparity has increased
and participation in tertiary education has declined. Sea
level rise, storm intensification and high ambient
temperatures in coastal towns have required massive urban
and infrastructure re-design and retro-fitting at high cost to
taxpayers. High costs of living combined with increased
health and security risks reduce overall human well-being.
Institutions are reactive, as the social consequences of
ecological decline, and benefits of reversing it, are not
readily perceived. Consequently the algal-dominated reef
ecosystem is unlikely to return to its previous state even if
restoration efforts are undertaken.
Free Riders
Global action on carbon emissions and transition to a ‘full-
world’ economic model averts a climate change
catastrophe. After having reached maximum levels of 420
ppm at 2050, atmospheric CO2 concentrations are stabilized
at 350 ppm by 2100. In the GBR region climate change
impacts have intensified up to 2050, but temperatures have
stabilised at a <2°C increase by 2100. Seawater pH, storm
intensity and rainfall patterns do not change drastically, and
sea levels do not rise more than 0.3 m. However,
Australia’s ‘empty-world’ mindset and modus operandi
persists and it maintains an isolationist foreign policy and a
social paradigm based on irrigated agriculture and
extractive, market-based economic growth. Human
population in the GBR catchments has increased to 2.5
million, mainly from intrinsic population growth and
southern Australian migrants seeking lifestyle changes.
Agricultural and some mining expansion have occurred, but
are limited by more discerning export markets and
international sanctions on environmentally-unfriendly
Australian products, which drives diversification and
development of technology.
Supporting and regulating ecosystem services in particular
are under pressure. The condition of marine and terrestrial
ecosystem services has declined due to centralised and
ineffective management of agriculture, fisheries,
aquaculture and urbanisation, and terrestrial biodiversity is
threatened by expansion and intensification of urban and
agricultural areas, as well as invasive species. Terrestrial
runoff of nutrients and sediments and over-exploitation of
fishes are the main impacts on the reef, with coral cover
declining to 20% by 2050, and fish biomass declining by
70%. Increasing demand for water and drawdown of
groundwater requires construction of dams and
desalinisation plants.
Infrastructure increases but is poorly designed and
inefficient. Social inequity is evident and participation in
formal education is low as young people leave school to
join the workforce in mining and primary industries. Lack
of community-based governance, strong business elites and
income disparity combine to reduce overall human well-
being. Planning and institutions are reactive and are not
well-equipped to detect and respond to ecological problems.
34
35
Treading Water
There is no global action on climate change, and by 2100
global temperatures have warmed by more than 3.50C, sea
level has risen by 1 m and seawater reduced to a pH of 7.7.
In the GBR region, storm and cyclone intensities have
increased, and rainfall has become more erratic. The human
population in the GBR catchments exceeds 3 million, and is
increasingly urban, fuelled by immigration in response to
expanding opportunities from agricultural expansion and
intensification and mineral industry intensification, and
climate refugees from southern Australia and the Asia-
Pacific region. Through strong, inspired leadership,
Australia has made a transition to a ‘full-world’ economic
model based on internalisation of externalities and an
emphasis on social equity and public participation in
political decision-making. Impacts and local anthropogenic
pressures on ecosystem services in the catchments are
partially mitigated by pro-active, community-based
governance. By 2050, coral cover less than 20% due to
annual bleaching, and reefs become algae-dominated,
resulting in declining fish biomass and diversity. By 2100,
coral cover is approaching 5% due to warming and ocean
acidification. The constrained international tourism industry
adapts by shifting away from reefs, and specialising on more
intact areas and species (e.g. whale-watching), and tourism
generally reduces its ecological footprint.
In terrestrial and marine ecosystems, supporting, regulating
and cultural ecosystem services are hard hit, with
biodiversity extinctions in the Wet Tropics, tree death across
the savannah and increasing invasive species. Commercial
and recreational fisheries decline, but careful management
prevents the complete collapse of stocks. Water quality
declines with the intensification of grazing and agricultural
systems to supply the large human population, and more
erratic rainfall. This leads to a demand for more irrigation,
requiring increased dam building and water transfers, but
there is local resistance to loss of native vegetation and
impacts on water courses are locally-managed. Pro-active
planning mitigates the impacts of sea level rise, storm
intensification and high ambient temperatures on coastal
towns, but marshlands and many of the coral cays and
islands become inundated.
Improved health and education, strong civil society and
more even income distribution increases well-being, but this
is tempered by high costs of living and conflict in Asia-
Pacific, requiring strong border security. Planning processes
and institutions are democratic and adaptive, with emphasis
on increased learning about ecosystems and how they are
linked to human well-being, but they are better able to
respond to local than global pressures.
Best of Both Worlds
Global action on carbon emissions and global transition to a
‘full-world’ economic model averts a climate change
catastrophe, with atmospheric CO2 concentrations returning
to 350 ppm by 2100. In the GBR region climate change
impacts have intensified up to 2050, but temperatures have
stabilised at 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100. Sea
level has risen by only 0.3 m. Australia also succeeds in
introducing an economic model based on institutions for the
commons, including mechanisms for internalising
externalities, an emphasis on social equity and global fair
trade. In the GBR intrinsic growth and domestic immigration
increases the population to 2 million.
The condition of the reef continues to decline until mid-
century due to high CO2 levels and water quality decline in
the early 2000s, before recovering by 2100 to 25% coral
cover and higher fish diversity and biomass. The
international reef tourism industry declines by mid-century
but recovers and remains the primary regional industry,
followed by low-impact agriculture and aquaculture and
renewable energy aided by technological advances. Land use
strives to achieve greater productivity from multi-service
landscapes that include increased food production from
rainfed agriculture and the incorporation of biodiversity and
agriculture in agro-ecosystems. Terrestrial protected areas
increase, and mining and broadacre grazing decline in favour
of well-managed, locally-confined systems.
Ecosystem services begin to rebound. Commercial fisheries
are sustainably managed, and recreational fisheries become
strictly regulated to prevent over-exploitation by the larger
number of people and increased leisure time. Supporting and
regulating ecosystem services are restored as nutrient and
sediment pollution are controlled, native vegetation is
improved and invasive species are managed. The critical
functions that these services provide are protected by novel
markets, institutions and community-based management.
Increasing water demand from the larger population growth
is mitigated by water use efficiency preventing the
construction of additional dams, maintaining catchment
ecosystem services.
There is a focus on social justice, democracy, common
property rights and quality of life. Income distribution has
become more equitable, education and security improve,
resulting in major increases in health and well-being. Built
capital is maintained but is re-designed to improve quality,
reflecting local aspirations, such as innovative public
transport networks. Social capital increases: people look
after each other as well as the environment, generating more
shared knowledge, awareness and trust, and creating
adaptive capacity.
Table 3. Summary of key characteristics of each scenario.
Scenario Development paradigm Projected CO2
emissions/
temperature
increase by 2100
Implications for climate change and its
mitigation in GBR GBR 2050 population
projections
(Current population:
1.12 million)
Trashing the Commons Global Empty World;
Australia Empty World
850 ppm/
3.50C
- Sea level rise 1 m
- Sea water pH 7.7
- Increased cyclone intensity
- Erratic water quantity
- Severe nutrient and sediment pollution
- Reduced native vegetation extent and condition
- Increased invasive species
3.0 million, due to industrial
expansion and intensification,
climate refugees from southern
Australia and Asia-Pacific
Free Riders
Global Full World;
Australia Empty World
350 ppm/
<20C
- Sea level rise ≤ 0.3 m
- Sea water pH similar (8.0)
- Cyclone intensity similar
- Severe nutrient and sediment pollution
- Reduced native vegetation extent and condition
- Increased invasive species
2.5 million, some domestic
‘lifestyle’ immigration from
southern Australia
Treading Water Global Empty World;
Australia Full World
850 ppm/
3.50C
- Sea level rise 1 m
- Sea water pH 7.7
- Increased cyclone intensity
- Erratic water quantity
- Reduced native vegetation extent and
condition, and declining water quality, but
mitigated by improved land management
- Increased invasive species
3.0 million, due to industrial
expansion and intensification,
climate refugees from southern
Australia and Asia-Pacific
Best of Both Worlds Global Full World;
Australia Full World
350 ppm/
<20C
- Sea level rise 0.3 m
- Sea water pH 8.1
- Cyclone intensity similar
- Control of nutrient and sediment pollution at
1990 levels after 20% increase mid-century
- Native vegetation extent and condition
improved
- Invasive species controlled
2.0 million, limited domestic
immigration from southern
Australia
36
Table 4 Summary of impacts on terrestrial and marine ecosystem services in the GBR for each of the four scenarios.
Ecosystem Services
Scenario Ecosystem
Supporting Provisioning Regulating Cultural
Trashing the
Commons Terrestrial - Nutrient cycling stressed
- Agriculture intensification
and increased cropping area
with irrigation due to
increasing global population
- Increased dams for water
supplies due to more erratic
water supply
- Mining increases due to
increasing global demand
- Condition of services
declining
- Water regulation declining
with reduced native vegetation
cover
- Carbon storage declining
- Pollination and disease
regulation declines
- Tourism maintained
- Recreational fisheries
maintained but greatly reduced
catches
- Biodiversity values decline for
non-Indigenous and Indigenous
communities
- Educational and scientific
values decline
Marine - Less than 5% coral cover
due to acidification and
annual coral bleaching,
reefs are dominated by
algae
- Fish biomass and
diversity reduced 80% due
to overfishing and loss of
coral
- Nutrient cycling stressed
- Commercial fisheries have
severely reduced catch
- Aquaculture increases in
the coastal zone
- Condition of services
declining
- Storm protection from reef
declines, elevating coastal
erosion
- International reef tourism
collapse
- Recreational fisheries
maintained but greatly reduced
catches
- Biodiversity values decline for
non-Indigenous and Indigenous
communities
- Educational and scientific
values decline
Free Riders
Terrestrial - Nutrient cycling stressed
but not as much as
Trashing the Commons
- Moderate agricultural
intensification and increased
cropping area with irrigation
- Some increased dams for
water supplies
- Water regulation declining
with reduced native vegetation
cover, but less than in
Trashing the Commons
- Carbon storage declining
- Pollination and disease
regulation declines, but less
than in Trashing the Commons
- Tourism maintained
- Recreational fisheries
increased but based on reduced
biomass
- Biodiversity values decline but
not as much as in Trashing the
Commons or Treading Water
- Educational and scientific
37
values decline
Marine - Coral cover is 34%,
declining from 50% mid-
century due to poor local
management and declining
water quality
- fish biomass and
diversity reduced 70% due
to overfishing
- Nutrient cycling stressed
but not as much as
Trashing the Commons
- Commercial fisheries have
severely reduced catch
- Aquaculture increase in the
coastal zone
- Storm protection from reef
declines, elevating coastal
erosion
- International reef tourism
collapses but some retained
- Recreational fisheries
increased but based on lower
biomass
- Biodiversity values decline but
not as much as in Trashing the
Commons or Treading Water
- Educational and scientific
values decline
Treading Water Terrestrial - Nutrient cycling stressed
but not as much as
Trashing the Commons
- Mining increases, but
alongside renewable energy
development
- Agriculture intensification
and increased cropping area
with irrigation, but not as
intensive as Trashing the
Commons
- Increased dams for water
supplies
- Water regulation declining
with reduced native vegetation
cover, but not as much as in
Trashing the Commons
- Carbon storage declining
- Pollination and disease
regulation declines, but not as
much as in Trashing the
Commons
- Tourism maintained
- Recreational fisheries
increased but based on reduced
biomass
- Biodiversity values decline but
not as much as in Trashing the
Commons
- Educational and scientific
values decline
Marine - Coral cover 20% by
2050, declining to <5%
due to coral bleaching and
acidification
- Fish biomass reduced by
50%
- Nutrient cycling stressed
- Commercial fisheries take
over tourism as main marine
use of GBR, but reduced
catch
- Aquaculture increase in the
coastal zone but impact
mitigated by good
management
- Storm protection from reef
declines, elevating coastal
erosion
- International reef tourism
collapses but some retained
- Recreational fisheries
increased but based on lower
biomass
- Biodiversity values decline but
not as much as in Trashing the
Commons
- Educational and scientific
values decline
Best of Both Worlds Terrestrial - Nutrient cycling
maintained
- Increase in native forestry
- Renewable energy
promoted
- Water regulation maintained
with increased native
vegetation cover and protected
- Tourism grows with increased
protected areas
- Recreational fisheries increase
38
- Agriculture maintained
with improved management
- Water supplies maintained
without new dams
areas
- Carbon storage increased
- Pollination and disease
regulation increases
based on similar biomass but
better managed
- Biodiversity improve with
restoration
- Educational values maintained
or improved
Marine - Coral cover returned to
25% (1990 levels)
- Fish biomass recovering
from 80% mid-century
- Nutrient cycling
maintained
- Commercial fisheries
maintained but more
sustainable
- Low-impact aquaculture
developed
- Storm protection from reef
maintained
- International reef tourism
collapses but some retained
- Recreational fisheries
increased but based on similar
biomass but better managed
- Biodiversity values maintained
- Educational values maintained
or improved
39
Table 5. Change in extent of terrestrial and marine ecosystems in 2100 relative to the present for each scenario. Upward-pointing arrows indicate an increase
in the extent of a type of land cover/use, and downward-pointing arrows indicate a decrease. The number of arrows (between 1 and 5) indicates the amount of
change. Arrows pointing left and right indicate no change.
40
Table 6 Change in four capitals in 2100 relative to the present, averaged for terrestrial and marine ecosystems, for each scenario. Upward-pointing arrows
signify an increase in the value of an indicator, and downward-pointing arrows signify a decrease. The number of arrows (between 1 and 5) indicates
the amount of change. Arrows pointing left and right indicate no change. The summary well-being indicator was calculated by summing upward
arrows (each equivalent to +1) and downward arrows (each equivalent to -1) for all indicators. The economic subset indicator was calculated by
summing the arrows for population and quantity of built capital.
41
Fig. 1. Location of the Great Barrier Reef region.
42
Fig. 2. Conceptual framework for analysis. Scenarios were used to explore two key
drivers of change: the global development pathway, which influences global climate
change, and the Australian development pathway, which influences climate mitigation
at the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) scale, and how these might impact on terrestrial and
marine ecosystems in the GBR, ecosystem services and human well-being. Natural
capital comprises four categories of ecosystem services (MA 2005), which together
with human, social and built capitals contributes to human well-being.
43
Fig. 3. Four scenarios were developed from combinations of alternative development
pathways for the world and for Australia.
44
Fig. 4. Land cover/use in the GBR catchment and coral cover. Landcover/use data are
from QEPA (2005); QDNRW (2006a,b); Witte et al. (2006).
45
Fig. 5. The predicted average coral cover on 261 reefs between Bowen and Lizard
Island to 2100 for the four scenarios: TC = Trashing the Commons, TW = Treading
Water, FR = Free Riders, BBW = Best of Both Worlds. Observational data are from
Bruno and Selig (2007).
46
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
0246 8
Economic Subset Indicator
Well-Being Indicator
10
Trashing the
Commons
Treading Water
Free Riders
Best of Both
Worlds
Fig. 6. Summary well-being indicator plotted against economic subset indicator for
the four scenarios in 2100. Indicators were derived from Table 5. R2=0.92.
47
