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Abstract

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross-environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.

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... Notably, all these drivers imply the loss of broad-scale connectivity patterns (Carroll et al., 2018;Dinerstein et al., 2019;Marrec et al., 2020). The maintenance of the landscape connectivity has been suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy for biodiversity preservation and management (Game et al., 2011;Krosby et al., 2015), which allows species to track changing habitat conditions (Carroll et al., 2018;Game et al., 2011). Moreover, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recommended the creation of well-connected networks to mitigate threats to biodiversity as a global conservation priority (Álvarez-Romero et al., 2018;Dinerstein et al., 2019;Saura et al., 2018). ...
... Notably, all these drivers imply the loss of broad-scale connectivity patterns (Carroll et al., 2018;Dinerstein et al., 2019;Marrec et al., 2020). The maintenance of the landscape connectivity has been suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy for biodiversity preservation and management (Game et al., 2011;Krosby et al., 2015), which allows species to track changing habitat conditions (Carroll et al., 2018;Game et al., 2011). Moreover, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has recommended the creation of well-connected networks to mitigate threats to biodiversity as a global conservation priority (Álvarez-Romero et al., 2018;Dinerstein et al., 2019;Saura et al., 2018). ...
... Because of geo-political reasons, freshwater ecosystem management has been mainly focussed on local or country scales that do not match the scale of climate change projections (Dallimer & Strange, 2015;Szabolcs et al., 2022). However, maintaining landscape connectivity is the most frequently mentioned climate change adaptation strategy for biodiversity conservation (Game et al., 2011;Ward et al., 2020), and freshwater ecosystems are not an exception (see Hermoso et al., 2011). Additionally, ecological connectivity is a high priority for conservation planning and freshwater K E Y W O R D S biodiversity, dispersal, ecological corridors, ecoregions, Europe, source and sink areas, stepping-stone areas, waterscape management in the post-2020 global biodiversity framework (van Rees et al., 2021). ...
Article
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Aim The maintenance of broad‐scale connectivity patterns is suggested as a sustainable strategy for biodiversity preservation. However, explicit approaches for quantifying the functional role of different areas in biogeographic connectivity have been elusive. Freshwaters are spatially structured ecosystems critically endangered because of human activities and global change, demanding connectivity‐based approaches for their conservation. Mass effects—the increase in local diversity by immigration—and corridor effects—the connections with distant communities—are basic and relevant mechanisms connecting diversity with landscape configuration. Here, we identified freshwater hotspots areas for mass and corridor effects across Europe. Location Europe. Methods Using satellite images, we quantified the areas of ephemeral, temporal and permanent freshwaters. The landscape structure of the freshwater ecoregions was represented as a directed‐graph, and the link weights were determined by the distance between cells and the water cover. Three centrality metrics were used to rank freshwater areas with respect to their potential role in dispersal‐mediated mechanisms. Out‐degree represents the potential of an area to operate as a diversity source to other regions. In‐degree reflects the importance that incoming dispersal may have in local diversity. Betweenness refers to the importance of local areas for connecting other distant areas. Results We detected great concentrations of source hotspots on the northern regions associated to lentic ecosystems, main European rivers acting as ecological corridors for all freshwaters, and a mixed distribution of connectivity hotspots in southern and Mediterranean ecoregions, associated with lentic and/or lotic systems. Main Conclusions We showed an explicit connection between landscape structure and dispersal process at large geographic scales, highlighting hotspots of connectivity for the European waterscape. The spatial distribution of hotspots points to differences in landscape configurations potentially accounting for biogeographic diversity patterns and for mechanisms that have to be considered in conservation planning.
... The second strategy emphasizes conserving abiotic and/or spatial characteristics that are likely important for biodiversity persistence under climate change. The three main approaches (Jones et al., 2016) under this strategy are as follows: protecting (i) areas of slow climate velocity because they are potential climate refugia for biodiversity; (ii) abiotically heterogeneous areas because they provide diverse habitats to support a large number of species; and (iii) areas that enhance habitat connectivity for species' dispersal (Anderson & Ferree, 2010;Beier & Brost, 2010;Carroll et al., 2017;Game et al., 2011;Gillson et al., 2013;Jones et al., 2016;Lawler et al., 2015). ...
... In addition, these approaches can be implemented based on data (e.g., velocity of climate change or topographic data; Hamann et al., 2015;Theobald et al., 2015) that are available for most countries (Game et al., 2011 (ii) topographically diverse regions that provide heterogeneous physical habitat for biodiversity; and (iii) areas that most greatly increase the connectivity among PAs. We also assessed how the availability of non-human-dominated land for protection and the relative amount of already protected land affected the efficacy of new PAs in targeting climate refugia and topographically diverse lands, and in enhancing connectivity. ...
... Spatial prioritization that combines protection of lands that maximize the probability of persistence of biodiversity under climate change and that reduces the gaps in current distribution of biodiversity may be achievable in many cases. For example, Game et al. (2011) found that land prioritization based on identifying geophysical diversity protected 90% of plant communities in Papua New Guinea. Reducing the gaps in biodiversity distribution could be paired with increasing current climatic representation, which has proven to be a good strategy for preserving the representation of future climate (Elsen et al., 2020). ...
Article
Climate adaptation strategies are being developed and implemented to protect biodiversity from the impacts of climate change. A well-established strategy involves the identification and addition of new areas for conservation, and most countries agreed in 2010 to expand the global protected area (PA) network to 17% by 2020 (Aichi Biodiversity Target 11). Although great efforts to expand the global PA network have been made, the potential of newly established PAs to conserve biodiversity under future climate change remains unclear at the global scale. Here, we conducted the first global-extent, country-level assessment of the contribution of PA network expansion toward three key land prioritization approaches for biodiversity persistence under climate change: protecting climate refugia, protecting abiotic diversity, and increasing connectivity. These approaches avoid uncertainties of biodiversity predictions under climate change as well as the issue of undescribed species. We found that 51% of the countries created new PAs in locations with lower mean climate velocity (representing better climate refugia) and 58% added PAs in areas with higher mean abiotic diversity compared to the available, non-human-dominated lands not chosen for protection. However, connectivity among PAs declined in 53% of the countries, indicating that many new PAs were located far from existing PAs. Lastly, we identified potential improvements for climate adaptation, showing that 94% of the countries have the opportunity to improve in executing one or more approaches to conserve biodiversity. Most countries (60%) were associated with multiple opportunities, highlighting the need for integrative strategies that target multiple land protection approaches. Our results demonstrate that a global improvement in the protection of climate refugia, abiotic diversity, and connectivity of reserves is needed to complement land protection informed by existing and projected species distributions. Our study also provides a framework for countries to prioritize land protection for climate adaptation using publicly available data.
... For example, maps of neutral genetic diversity and gene flow have served as evolutionary attributes for neutral processes (Hanson, Fuller, & Rhodes, 2019;Hanson et al., 2018;Nielsen et al., 2017). On the other hand, maps of climatic refugia, environmental conditions, morphological variation and putatively adaptive genetic diversity have served as evolutionary attributes for adaptive processes (Cowling, Pressey, Rouget, & Lombard, 2003;Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011;Hanson, Rhodes, Riginos, & Fuller, 2017;Thomassen et al., 2011). Although an optimally sited prioritization would represent a comprehensive range of these evolutionary attributes for each species of interest (Beger et al., 2014), long-standing challenges in mapping and operationalizing evolutionary processes have severely limited the scope of previous prioritizations. ...
... It accounts for abiotic factors that influence evolutionary processes (i.e. climatic refugia; Game et al., 2011). ...
... Additionally, we detected far fewer putatively adaptive loci for H. molleri, and so our results may not reflect its full range of adaptive genetic variation. Fifth, although we followed standard practices for modelling future species' distributions, uncertainty in future climate projections limits our ability to correctly identify climatic refugia (Game et al., 2011). Sixth, establishing protected areas alone is often insufficient, and populations may also require direct management interventions (e.g. ...
Article
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Protected area systems should ideally maintain adaptive and neutral evolutionary processes. To achieve this, plans for expanding protected area systems (prioritizations) can improve coverage of related attributes (evolutionary attributes). However, long‐standing challenges in mapping and operationalizing evolutionary attributes have prevented their widespread usage. We outline a novel framework for incorporating evolutionary processes into conservation planning. Using three amphibian species in the Iberian Peninsula (Hyla molleri, Pelobates cultripes and Rana iberica), we mapped a comprehensive range of adaptive and neutral evolutionary attributes to delineate places containing individuals with moderate to high heterozygosity, different neutral genetic clusters, different adaptive genetic clusters and climatic refugia. We overlaid these maps with boundaries of existing protected areas to quantify representation shortfalls and generated a prioritization to identify additional priority areas. To assess the performance of conventional approaches, we also generated a prioritization using only the species' distribution data—without the evolutionary attributes. We found that existing protected areas within the Iberian Peninsula are failing to adequately represent evolutionary attributes for the study species. Specifically, they are not adequately representing places predicted to contain individuals with moderate to high heterozygosity for any of the studied species, and neither are they adequately representing the species' potential climatic refugia. They also have poor coverage of the distinct adaptive and neutral genetic clusters that comprise each of the species' distributions. By incorporating the evolutionary attributes into the prioritization process, we identified priority areas that would address all of the shortfalls for only a minor increase in the size of the protected area system. In comparison, the prioritization generated following conventional approaches, despite encompassing a similar extent, did not substantially improve representation of the species' evolutionary attributes. Synthesis and applications. We introduce a framework for incorporating adaptive and neutral evolutionary processes into conservation planning. This framework can reveal weaknesses in the coverage of climatic refugia, genetic diversity and potential local adaptations by existing protected areas. Moreover, it can identify priority areas to improve conservation of evolutionary processes. Since neglecting evolutionary processes can impair conservation plans, we recommend using evolutionary data to inform decision‐making where possible.
... Conservation efforts aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity to climate change are inextricably embedded within a world of broader conservation practices (Game et al., 2011). To promote biologically meaningful climate change conservation, efforts must be made to integrate the use of climate velocities and other abiotic metrics of climate refugia to ongoing biological conservation practices (Brito-Morales et al., 2018). ...
... Received 13 May 2019; Received in revised form 9 August 2019; Accepted 19 September 2019 cultural resources (Convention on Biological Diversity, 2016b;Jones et al., 2016;Pressey et al., 2007). Primarily due to their largely static nature, traditional protected areas may be limited in their ability to adapt to dynamic climatic shifts, leaving the long-term persistence of their protected resources in question and necessitating innovative conservation solutions (Ban et al., 2012;Game et al., 2011;Marris, 2011;Virkkala et al., 2019). ...
... Efforts must be made to improve the way that climate change is explicitly accounted for when identifying priority areas for conservation (Jones et al., 2016;Reside et al., 2018). Historically, protected areas have largely been established to conserve the geological, biological, and cultural resources in a given place, a strategy that may seem ill-suited to dealing with the dynamic impacts of climate change on biodiversity (Game et al., 2011;Marris, 2011;Settele et al., 2014). In order to understand how the placement of future protected area systems could be improved to cope with climate change impacts, one must first assess how well current areas already achieve that purpose (Gonzalez et al., 2018;Virkkala et al., 2019). ...
Article
Climate change is among the greatest challenges to biodiversity conservation globally. In response to climatic changes, species around the world have already started to shift their ranges along altitudinal and latitudinal gradients. However, it remains unclear whether the areas currently managed for biodiversity protection are optimized for these shifting ranges. Climate velocities represent a method to quantify the rate at which organisms must alter their range to maintain their current climate envelope. Here we use a case study of the Southern Rockies region in the western United States to show how forward and backward climate velocities can be used to quantify potential impacts of climatic changes and delineate abiotic climate refugia. We further illustrate how climate velocities can integrate into a process that simultaneously identifies climate refugia for suites of species while accounting for additional landscape factors contributing to protected area success. These results demonstrate how potential climatic changes may be used to prioritize the efficient selection of climate refugia, potentially aiding multi-target climate adaptation decision-making across broad regions.
... However, in practice, the decisions made in designating areas for conservation are still largely driven by the representation of current, static ecological features, such as current species ranges or habitat types (Pressey et al., 2007;Jones et al., 2016). This process has often failed to take into account the dynamic biophysical nature of these systems, ignoring both their past and future proclivities for change (Game et al., 2011;Ban et al., 2012). Thus, many such conservation decisions aimed at protecting natural resources from the risks associated with climate change have focused on current aspects of the landscapesuch as connectivityrather than integrating systematic assessments of future vulnerability. ...
... In the field of conservation planning for climate change resilience, the broadest level of decision making takes place when determining where and how to implement a few key strategies for minimizing the overall impact of climate changes (Lawler, 2009;Game et al., 2011;Jones et al., 2016). The first of these strategies has been to promote resilience simply by preserving areas across diverse geophysical settings, such as broad elevational and latitudinal gradients (Lawler, 2009). ...
... Though the establishment and management of widespread networks of protected areas remains a central strategy for the conservation of ecological resources, it is unclear how well these largely static systems will be able to bear the impacts of climate change (Game et al., 2011;Ban et al., 2012). With individual protected areas already experiencing unprecedented ecological shifts driven by climate change, their ability to maintain climate characteristics within their borders appears compromised (Marris, 2011). ...
Thesis
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Climate change is impacting natural systems with unprecedented intensity, widely altering the physiology and ecology of species, communities, and ecosystems that are of concern to conservation. While efforts to protect these diverse ecological resources across broad landscapes already exist, the success of those efforts will depend in part on their ability to help buffer against the impacts of climate change. Doing so first requires knowledge of landscape factors that contribute to the resilience of regional biodiversity, particularly those influencing the ability to adapt to climate shifts. Within the context of landscape conservation, those factors often take two key forms: areas with minimal exposure and vulnerability to climate shifts (climate refugia) and areas critical for connecting populations across the landscape (connectivity corridors). Though robust methods for assessing climate refugia and corridors have already been developed, they have typically been applied on a case-by-case basis for individual species or ecosystems. Unfortunately, this individualized strategy is unfeasible and inefficient across the highly biodiverse regional scales at which much conservation planning occurs. Furthermore, actions to maximize resilience to climate change impacts cannot continue to ignore the wider range of socioecological factors that threaten species persistence, such as human land development. In this thesis, I have explored how coarse-filter metrics associated with climate change resilience could be systematically integrated into existing systems for protected area conservation, using the Southern Rockies Landscape Conservation Cooperative as a case study. I first modeled climate change exposure and connectivity throughout the region, identifying the areas that are generally less vulnerable to climate change impacts. I then used these metrics as the basis for simulating the priority of protecting certain areas as either climate refugia or corridors that also house multiple species in need of conservation. Initial evaluation of climate change exposure and connectivity revealed consistent patterns in climate vulnerability that varied considerably across the region, providing a robust foundation for prioritizing conservation actions. By subsequently combining these metrics with the distributions of threatened species and other ecological resources of interest, climate change impacts can drive landscape conservation decisions in a manner that still aligns with ongoing management needs and objectives. This work highlights that adequately protecting ecological resources from the pressures of climate change will require more thorough spatial assessment of additional factors contributing to the success of conservation efforts, especially those related to human actions. I believe that the strategies for spatial prioritization I have outlined provide landscape managers with a framework for explicitly basing their decisions on climate change in a manner that accounts for wider conservation objectives, limitations, and
... When selecting new sites for protection or to plan a conservation network the best is to take a systematic conservation network planning approach that incorporates refugia, maximizes representation of geophysical settings, prioritizes microclimatically diverse and locally 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 A c c e p t e d M a n u s c r i p t 35 connected grid cells in each geophysical category (Game et al 2011, Heller et al 2015, Anderson et al 2016, or includes macro-climatic gradients as conservation targets (Rouget et al 2006). In topographically complex regions, naturalness-based models that include information on climate analog sites and prioritize topoclimatically diverse cells (Littlefield et al 2016) are an alternative option. ...
... Mapped grid cells with minimal difference between current and future conditions can then be categorized as in-situ refugia and assigned a high value. When using a systematic conservation planning algorithm cells with higher values are more likely to be included in an optimal reserve network (Game et al 2011). ...
... g land units that are located near streams while balancing it with acquisition cost(Klein et al 2009). Temporal connectivity can also be incorporated into systematic conservation planning by prioritizing spatial vicinity between differentcooler and warmer, or drier and moisterhabitats, a proxy thought to facilitate species persistence through time.Game et al (2011) accomplished this using the conservation planning software Marxan by requiring a high boundary length modifier which minimizes the difference between topo-edaphic and climate variables in adjacent areas;Heller et al (2015) instead used Marxan to maximize hydro-climate diversity in the reserve network thereby capturing the diversity of c ...
Article
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Empirical studies and habitat suitability modeling project significant shifts in species distributions in response to climate change. Because habitat fragmentation can impede species range shifts, wildlife corridors may have increasing importance in enhancing climate resilience for species persistence. While habitat connectivity has been studied for over four decades, the design of connectivity specifically to facilitate species movement in response to climate change is a relatively new challenge. We conducted a systematic review of 116 relevant papers from 1996–2017. Research focused on assessing the utility of habitat connectivity for climate change adaptation by species (N = 29) and modeling and mapping climate-wise connectivity for planning purposes (N = 55). Others addressed fundamental questions of connectivity related to climate adaptation (N = 31). Based on empirical data and computer simulations examining species range shifts in response to climate change at leading edges of current distributions; it is clear that large protected areas connected through linkages, and stepping stones embedded in a permeable matrix promote population persistence and facilitate range expansion. We identified 13 approaches to modeling climate-wise connectivity based on either focal species or landscape structure. When prioritizing areas for connectivity conservation, approaches include focusing on connecting areas of low climate velocity, refugia, climate analogs, or linking current to future suitable habitats. Riparian corridors should be considered in connectivity plans because of their importance as natural movement corridors, climate gradients, and refugia. Guidance is provided on selecting the best methods for connectivity design depending on the objectives, available data, and landscape context. Future research needs to evaluate the functionality of climate-wise connectivity models for facilitating range shifts and compare connectivity outcomes across modeling approaches.
... On a large scale, this involves identification of the areas that are not only suitable for a defined species pool at the present time, but will also remain suitable in the future. These areas can be called climatic refugia because of their ability to mitigate effects of climate change and thus safeguard the persistence of biodiversity (Game et al. 2011;Groves et al. 2012;Keppel et al. 2015). Given the importance of such areas, they should, whenever possible, be included in reserves and other categories of in a region is insufficient to conserve regional PAs. ...
... Selection algorithms in conservation planning must take into account the issue of climate change(Araujo et al. 2004;Hannah et al. 2007;Game et al. 2011;Krause & Pennington 2012; Bonebrake et al. 2014;Brambilla et al. 2017). ...
Article
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The goal of this paper was to review and illustrate the utility of SDM for solving conservation problems. Using real-world examples, I show a variety of uses for SDM, and then review the existing and potential applications of SDM for plant conservation in Central Asia. Central Asia is the region with a high number of endemic species that have narrow habitat specialization and very restricted ranges. Many of these species are red-listed and known from only a few or a single location. Any plans for their recovery must be based on the estimates of their area of occupancy and critical habitat, as well as the knowledge of their habitat requirements and potential range. SDM can be used for obtaining this information. The predicted ranges then can be used for species translocations, identification of biodiversity and endemism hotspots and reserve design.
... Despite the wealth of suggestions for addressing climate change in conservation planning, relatively few studies have tested the impact of incorporating these approaches into the conservation-planning process [26]-and even fewer have explored the effects of more than one approach at a time [27]. Here, we explore the effects of addressing climate change on both the configuration and the cost of a national protected area network using three such approaches. ...
... By including climate corridors, our goal was to increase the connectivity of the landscape and not necessarily the connectivity of the reserve network itself. Doing the latter would involve requiring the aggregation of sites and/or the selection of corridors between sites [27]. Although connecting the network would probably improve the ability of species to track suitable climates, without directly accounting for climate-driven movements they might not do so. ...
Article
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Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA—increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.
... The lack of information about how hydroclimatic variation affects forest ecosystems and ecosystem services on the floodplain is a major constraint to the development of conservation planning. Indeed, effective management of humid tropical forests is a mean way of the prevention of their disappearance as their biological resources in context of climate change (Game et al., 2011) and hydrometeorological risk. Such is the example of swamps and flooded forests of Naglanou in Benin and of Akissa in Togo, located on the Mono River lower valley (Figure 1). ...
Article
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This study aims to analyze hydroclimatic variation (meaning rainfall and flow decrease or increase, regime irregularity, …) in Mono River basin and flood risk for ecological conservation of Naglanou (Benin) and Akissa (Togo) hydrosystems. Climate, hydrology and planimetry data were used for descriptive statistical and spatial interpolation to determine rain/flow relationship, climate balance (rainfall less potential evapotranspiration), flow coefficient (relationship between rainfall and flow), flood risk thresholds (base on Standardized Precipitation Index) return period. Naglanou and Akissa forest areas record heavy rainfall ranging 161 to 277 mm in June and 90 to 130 mm in October, representing respectively 16 and 13% of annual rainfall (1961-2015). This unequal spatiotemporal rainfall distribution determines surface flows and moisture of these forest sites during water level rise periods. Moreover, increase of flow rate by 20.38% over 1961-2015 and 14% over 1961-2000 linked to rainfall since 1990 and impoundment of Nangbeto dam since 1987. Flood hazard thresholds are limited(424.8 m3-1). Return periods correspond to 2, 10, 20 and 50 years. Key words: Naglanou and Akissa Forest, biodiversity, mono River Delta, standardized precipitation index, flood risk threshold.
... As far as we know, this is the first attempt to combine DS and DSMderived layers as input data for Marxan analyses to design protected area zoning. The information layers typically input into Marxan mostly originate from: species distribution models (Lawler et al., 2020) such as Maxent (Esselman & Allan, 2011), traditional knowledge or expert information from local stakeholders (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Hamilton, et al., 2011), species distribution records from databases or museums (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, et al., 2011), phylogenetic data (Asmyhr et al., 2014) or habitat maps (Proudfoot et al., 2020). However, most of this information is hard to obtain in regions where funding and access are limited or where security issues prevent field work. ...
Article
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Human pressure on ecosystems has strongly increased over the last decades and now impacts even the most remote regions. To help mitigate these impacts, it is crucial to designate protected areas in regions that retain a high level of ecological integrity. However, ecological data remain scarce for many such areas, making the systematic design of new protected zones challenging. Following a request from local managers, we developed an original methodological approach to help design new zoning for a pre‐existing protected area in a remote, data‐poor Sahelian wetland of southern Chad, a vast area rich in biodiversity and exploited by diverse human activities. The method involved first collecting extensive aerial survey data (6252 records) on birds and mammals and then analysing this through a combination of distance sampling and density surface modelling. The biodiversity data, combined with ecological predictors, helped model species distribution layers that were then incorporated with socio‐economic constraints into the systematic conservation planning tool Marxan. This approach produced an array of protected zoning options that met three levels of conservation objectives set by experts, corresponding to proportions of individuals from given species to protect in the proposed protected area. Frequent exchanges with local managers allowed the analyses to be refined, resulting in seven potential scenarios to be considered for conservation purposes. Synthesis and applications. In a context of high data scarcity, lack of access and short‐term conservation objectives, this combined approach that optimizes newly obtained data via a suite of modelling tools can facilitate identifying and protecting natural areas in regions most in need of urgent conservation policy.
... Our results emphasized the important conservation status of the Liangshan Mountains giant panda population, which progresses at a worrying population growth rate and is the only mountain not included in the scope of Giant Panda National Park (Wang et al., 2021) among the six mountains (Sichuan Forestry Department, 2015). We need to urgently reconsider the viability of the current conservation approach and focus on strategies in the rapidly changing climate, such as identifying and protecting climate refugia and cross-environment connectivity promotion (Game et al., 2011). The rapid climate-driven changes in ecosystems can outpace the natural capacity for adaptation in many species (e.g., Breshears David et al., 2005). ...
Article
Comprehending the population trend and understanding the distribution range dynamics of species are necessary for global species protection. Recognizing what causes dynamic distribution change is crucial for identifying species' environmental preferences and formulating protection policies. Here, we studied the rear-edge population of the flagship species, giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), to (1) assess their population trend using their distribution patterns, (2) evaluate their distribution dynamics change from the second (1988) to the third (2001) survey (2-3 Interval) and third to the fourth (2013) survey (3-4 Interval) using a machine learning algorithm (eXtremely Gradient Boosting), and (3) decode model results to identify driver factors in the first known use of SHapley Additive exPlanations. Our results showed that the population trends in Liangshan Mountains were worst in the second survey (k = 1.050), improved by the third survey (k = 0.97), but deteriorated by the fourth survey (k = 0.996), which indicates a worrying population future. We found that precipitation had the most significant influence on distribution dynamics among several potential environmental factors, showing a negative correlation between precipitation and giant panda expansion. We recommend that further research is needed to understand the microenvironment and animal distribution dynamics. We provide a fresh perspective on the dynamics of giant panda distribution, highlighting novel focal points for ecological research on this species. Our study offers theoretical underpinnings that could inform the formulation of more effective conservation policies. Also, we emphasize the uniqueness and importance of the Liangshan Mountains giant pandas as the rear-edge population, which is at a high risk of population extinction.
... This finding may be also related to the insufficiency of PAs on the southeastern plateau, where carbon storage is abundant (Xu et al., 2017). Our findings also agreed that incorporating topography and soil combinations can effectively improve the conservation capacity of different vegetation types (Game et al., 2011). Different ecological communities are distributed in diverse geophysical environments, and the protection of these environments is a supplement to the related biodiversity and ecosystems (Groves et al., 2012). ...
Article
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The intensifying climate change crisis threatens the distribution within ecosystems and their function. Protected areas should incorporate the changing climate into planning to improve the effectiveness of biological conservation, particularly for biodiversity hotspots facing fast climate change. In this study, we investigated the climate-smart planning for protected areas in the Tibetan Plateau, known as the Third Pole, under climate change scenarios. These areas comprise unique ecosystems and three biodiversity hotspots of the world. The Species distribution model and carbon model with a systematic conservation planning tool (Marxan) were coupled in a unified framework. The economic costs (population) and climate costs (climate velocity, namely, a metric reflecting the impacts of climate change on species shifts) were input into the Marxan model to conduct hierarchical planning and further identify the areas functioning as species conservation priority areas or climate refugia under different climate scenarios. Results showed that nearly 10 % of the existing protected areas would suffer from rapid climate change in the future, leading to climate space loss in current protected areas by more than 20 %. The hierarchical planning realized relatively low economic and climate costs but left 58 % gap areas outside current conservation network. Therefore, six adjustable areas in the eastern and southern Tibetan Plateau, particularly in the margins of the plateau, were identified as: the gap areas (1) adjacent to the southwest of Qilian Mountains, (2) on the southeast of the headwaters of the Yellow River, (3) on the southeast of the headwaters of the Lancang River, (4) in Zayu and Mêdog, (5) connecting Mount Qomolangma Nature Reserve and Middle Reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo Valley—the Black-necked Cranes Nature Reserve, and (6) in the northwest of Zanda. These areas were proved to perform complex ecological functions under future climate scenarios. Our findings emphasize the necessity to account for climate impacts on protected area planning. The framework can help enhance the ability of the Tibetan Plateau as ecological security barrier and guide the climate-smart design of protected areas in China.
... Because the distribution of species and ecosystems is destined to shift, reserve planning now requires a dynamic framework (Game et al. 2011). Rather than trying to protect specific assemblages in specific locations, we should aim to provide species with continual access to protection as their range shifts across the landscape. ...
Book
The aim of this book is to build a bridge between conservation theory and practice. The narrative is focused specifically on Canada. This permits an integrated treatment, where conservation theory is presented in the context of the social and institutional framework responsible for its implementation. Special attention is given to topics that are the subject of debate or controversy, as they provide valuable insight into the practical aspects of conservation. The result is a comprehensive synthesis of applied biodiversity conservation, tailored to the needs of conservation students and practitioners in Canada.
... Climate change poses a considerable challenge for biodiversity conservation, with many established natural reserves predicted to become less effective in protecting future biodiversity hotspots (Chacon-Prieto et al., 2021;Hoffmann et al., 2019;Peng et al., 2021;Velazco et al., 2021). Recognizing and protecting climatic refugia is an urgent requirement for spatial conservation prioritization in the face of climate change (Game et al., 2011;Groves et al., 2012;Jones et al., 2016). In-situ conservation is a long-term goal and is often the most efficient and preferred approach for protecting biodiversity, as it preserves natural populations, whereas exsitu conservation is an important complement to in-situ efforts (Potter et al., 2017). ...
Article
Identifying climatic refugia is important for long-term conservation planning under climate change. Riparian areas have the potential to provide climatic refugia for wildlife, but literature remains limited, especially for plants. This study was conducted with the purpose of identifying climatic refugia of plant biodiversity in the portion of the Mekong River Basin located in Xishuangbanna, China. We first predicted the current and future (2050s and 2070s) potential distribution of 50 threatened woody species in Xishuangbanna by using an ensemble of small models, then stacked the predictions for individual species to derive spatial biodiversity patterns within each 10 × 10 km grid cell. We then identified the top 17 % of the areas for spatial biodiversity patterns as biodiversity hotspots, with climatic refugia defined as areas that remained as biodiversity hotspots over time. Stepwise regression and linear correlation were applied to analyze the environmental correlations with spatial biodiversity patterns and the relationships between climatic refugia and river distribution, respectively. Our results showed potential upward and northward shifts in threatened woody species, with range contractions and expansions predicted. The spatial biodiversity patterns shift from southeast to northwest, and were influenced by temperature, precipitation, and elevation heterogeneity. Climatic refugia under climate change were related closely to river distribution in Xishuangbanna, with riparian areas identified that could provide climatic refugia. These refugial zones are recommended as priority conservation areas for mitigating the impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Our study confirmed that riparian areas could act as climatic refugia for plants and emphasizes the conservation prioritization of riparian areas within river basins for protecting biodiversity under climate change.
... However, their static locations and extents could hamper their potential to adequately preserve many species undergoing dramatic and abrupt distributional changes as a response to rapidly changing climate conditions (Hannah et al., 2007;Regos et al., 2016). This assessment and gap analysis was therefore intended to identify the strengths and weaknesses of the Alpine PA system for the conservation of high-elevation taxa in a changing climate; identifying and promoting effective preservation of climate refugia is indeed a key strategy for conservation under a changing climate (Game et al., 2011). High coverage of climate refugia by the current PA system would suggest that existing PAs constitute a network of sites likely to be efficient for the target species and their associated habitats and communities even in a warmer future. ...
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Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain‐specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041–2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in‐situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex‐situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high‐resolution occurrence dataset (2901–12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%–59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region as in‐situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%–66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine high‐elevation species and habitats, where habitat degradation/alteration by human activities should be prevented to ensure future suitability for alpine species. By combining distribution models (based on a large, high‐resolution dataset, and balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism, and predictive/extrapolation ability) with climate forecasts, this study identified climate refugia for high‐elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, considering both in‐situ refugia (suitable now and in the future) and ex‐situ refugia (suitable only in the future). Most species will undergo a marked contraction towards higher elevations. In‐situ refugia for at least three species cover ~15,000 km2 of the Alpine region (44% included within protected areas) and represent priority sites for the conservation of high‐elevation species and habitats.
... It is well known that species that occur in the tropics (e.g., wintering areas) particularly have a greater risk of climate disturbance once they have reached their maximum temperature tolerance levels (Araújo et al., 2013). Moreover, protected areas have been developed to protect the ecological, biological, and cultural resources and reduce the impacts of global climate change on biodiversity (Game et al., 2011). We have shown that many protected areas, either within the wintering or breeding areas, likely have a large proportion of refugia for the OHB (See Supplementary Materials; Fig. S3). ...
Article
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Over the past decades, global environmental changes have led to unfavorable effects on migratory birds. However, many species that encounter climate change are listed as least concern by International Union for Conservation of Nature. Using species distribution models, we quantified the redistributions of breeding and wintering sites of oriental honey buzzards, OHB (Pernis ptilorhynchus), a long-distance migratory raptor that often preys on the larvae of wasps and bees under changing climate based on shared socio-economic pathways scenarios. We also incorporated climate and land use risks based on climate anomalies and vegetation dynamics to assess future conservation strategies. The results revealed a significant range contraction on the wintering and breeding areas of the OHB species by 2050 and 2100. Our results suggest that the migration distance will likely increase under all scenarios. In addition, we found many high-risk areas across OHB habitats while refugia areas were relatively only covered a small proportion. Habitat restoration and developing new protected areas become a fundamental strategy for OHB conservation. Our approaches have provided comprehensive insights into broad biogeographic dynamics under multifaceted threats and how to tackle global changes through the specific landscape management for long-distance migrants.
... The imperatives for incorporating climate change information into conservation planning are robust (c.f., Heller & Zavaleta, 2009). For example, key strategies to achieving conservation targets include using climate change information to identify risks to diverse habitats, map climate refugia, and increase habitat connectivity (Game et al., 2011;Groves et al., 2012;Lacher & Wilkerson, 2014;Michalak et al., 2018). However, there are gaps between managers' understanding of the importance of climate change, the use of climate information in planning efforts, and implementation of adaptation actions (Cross et al., 2013;Dilling et al., 2019;Donatti et al., 2019;Peterson St-Laurent et al., 2021). ...
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Assessing how climate change information is used in conservation planning is an important part of meeting long‐term conservation and climate adaptation goals. In the United States, state agencies responsible for fish and wildlife management create State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) to identify conservation goals, prioritize actions, and establish plans for managing and monitoring target species and habitats. We created a rubric to assess and compare the use of climate change information in SWAPs for 10 states in the Intermountain West and Great Plains. Interviews with SWAP authors identified institutional factors influencing applications of climate change information. Access to professional networks and climate scientists, funding support for climate change vulnerability analysis, Congressional mandates to include climate change, and supportive agency leadership facilitate using climate change information. Political climate could either support or limit options for using this information. Together, the rubric and the interview results can be used to identify opportunities to improve the use of climate information, and to identify entry points to support conservation planning and natural resource managers in successful adaptation to climate change. This research is directly relevant to future SWAP revisions, which most states will complete by 2025, and more broadly to other conservation planning processes.
... Conservation strategies designed to improve biodiversity's resilience to climate change are inextricably linked to broader conservation activities (Game et al., 2011). Climate change metrics are crucial methods for mapping potential biodiversity risks in the future that helps predict which species are likely to adapt in space to a novel climate, migrate, and stay in a habitat with a newly suitable climate . ...
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The Leuser Ecosystem is one of the essential landscapes in the world for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. However, the Leuser Ecosystem has suffered many threats from anthropogenic activities and changing climate. Climate change is the greatest challenge to global biodiversity conservation. Efforts should be made to elaborate climatic change metrics toward biological conservation practices. Herein, we present several climate change metrics to support conservation management toward mammal species in the Leuser Ecosystem. We used a 30-year climate of mean annual temperature, annual precipitation, and the BIOCLIM data to capture the current climatic conditions. For the future climate (2050), we retrieved three downscaled general circulation models for the business-as-usual scenario of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP585). We calculated the dissimilarities of the current and 2050 climatic conditions using the standardized Euclidean distance (SED). To capture the probability of climate extremes in each period (i.e., current and future conditions), we calculated the 5th and 95th percentiles of the distributions of monthly temperature and precipitation, respectively, in the current and future conditions. Furthermore, we calculated forward and backward climate velocities based on the mean annual temperature. These metrics can be useful inferences about species conservation. Our results indicate that almost all of the endangered mammals in the Leuser Ecosystem will occur in the area with threats to local populations and sites. Different conservation strategies should be performed in the areas likely to present different threats toward mammal species. Habitat restoration and long-term population monitoring are needed to support conservation in this mega biodiversity region.
... By identifying and protecting climate refugia where climate changes are attenuated and habitats become marginalized, we might improve the scope of natural adaptation. As conserving the geophysical stage and protecting climatic refugia are proposed as strategies for climate change adaptation at a large (national) scale (Game et al., 2011), using CGCFEs as conservation targets can be a conservation strategy that addresses the uncertainty in climate-induced freshwater habitat transformations (Kingsford, 2011). Although large-scale (e.g., river basin) freshwater conservation planning has increasingly emerged in China, such geoclimatic patterns have seldom been included in previous conservation assessments (Xia et al., 2017;Li et al., 2017;Guo et al., 2019). ...
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Freshwater wetlands play an important role in preserving global biodiversity and substantial ecosystem services, but they are exposed to higher pressures and threats and have received less attention in conservation planning in comparison to terrestrial ecosystems. Although a number of freshwater protected areas have been established in China, considerable freshwater conservation gaps still exist where ecologically valuable freshwater wetlands are vulnerable to anthropogenic threats, our study therefore explored systematic conservation planning specifically suited to freshwater ecosystems for the large river basins in China. A scheme of Climatic-geomorphological Classification of Freshwater Ecosystems (CGCFEs) was developed and employed as broad-scale surrogates based on their unique ecohydrological processes and biodiversity assemblages. A freshwater conservation assessment was conducted for each river basin using a complementarity-based planning framework (i.e., systematic conservation planning) and the prioritization software Marxan in consideration of the conservation targets of CGCFEs. Our research also demonstrated the need to introduce the concept of incidental gaps (IGs) in freshwater conservation planning, where the focal species and ecosystems have unintentionally been incorporated into a nature reserve with different conservation targets and thus created “conservation gaps” due to incidental and unfocused conservation efforts. The identified complete gaps (CGs) and IGs accounted for 10.56% and 8.66% of the total freshwater area respectively, implicating the need to enhance freshwater conservation efficacy by realigning existing conservation patterns to address these gaps. Our research provides a spatially explicit freshwater conservation strategy at the river basin and national scales and thus enables the central government and wetland resource managers to set ecologically meaningful spatial conservation priorities for freshwater ecosystems within those major large river basins. In addition, the methodology of using CGCFEs can be replicated for large-scale freshwater conservation planning elsewhere and promote freshwater conservation efficiency by capturing irreplaceable freshwater habitats.
... In a fourth step, we compare the median climate anomalies and other PA characteristics between national PA estates via a principal component analysis (PCA). The outcomes inform proactive management that can compensate for negative impacts of climate change on PA effectiveness (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011). Our work sets out to support climate-smart policy and management of PAs, particularly at the national to local level. ...
... Climate change is compromising the effectiveness of some protected areas and networks of protected areas as habitats and species ranges shift in response (Peters and Darling 1985, Pressey et al. 2007, Game et al. 2011. Areas with slow VoCCs can be used to identify potential areas for stepping stones or corridors that allow species to migrate and persist as the climate changes (D'Aloia et al. 2019). ...
... may act as potential refugia from ocean acidification for stony corals(Tittensor et al. 2010). Because climate change is occurring faster than many species can adapt, protecting areas that are experiencing less extreme climactic change may promote species' persistence or recovery (Heller and Zavaleta 2009;Game et al. 2011). Furthermore, as sea level continues to rise, some areas may become important estuarine habitats for species. ...
Technical Report
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Canada has committed to establishing a well-connected system of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) that protect at least 10% of coastal and marine areas by 2020. To advance that goal in the Pacific region, the Government of Canada, Government of British Columbia (BC), and 16 member First Nations are collaborating on marine planning in the Northern Shelf Bioregion (NSB). A set of goals, objectives, principles, and design guidelines informed the development of conservation priorities, which are the ecological and cultural features to be prioritized for protection within the MPA network, and design strategies, which describe how to spatially incorporate ecological conservation priorities into the network. This paper focuses exclusively on Goal 1 of the Canada – BC MPA Network Strategy (2014), which specifies the protection and maintenance of marine biodiversity, ecological representation and special natural features. We developed ecological design strategies for the MPA network in the NSB. These include spatial ecological conservation targets specifying how much of each ecological conservation priority (or feature) an MPA network aims to protect, and approaches for determining the size, shape, and protection levels of MPAs, as well as the connectivity, representation, and replication of ecological conservation priorities. Specifically we: (1) set the context for developing ecological design strategies for the MPA network in the NSB by reviewing the components of MPA network planning processes in BC, best practices from these and other planning processes, and guidance from the scientific literature; (2) developed a method for setting coarse-filter and finefilter ecological conservation targets and a flow diagram to determine which ecological conservation priority features and associated ecological conservation targets are appropriate for inclusion in site-selection analyses in the next phase of planning; (3) provided recommendations on design strategies for size, spacing, and replication by adapting best practices and guidance from the literature to the NSB; and (4) developed an iterative approach for adjusting ecological conservation targets in site-selection analyses based on protection levels that are linked to MPA effectiveness research. Together with the conservation priorities, the design strategies will inform site selection analyses conducted during the design scenarios phase of MPA network planning to identify priority areas for conservation and options for possible MPA network configurations in the NSB.
... Most of the conservation strategies for protecting primate species under climate change should be directed at the species within the habitat at the highest risk. Moreover, identifying and protecting areas of climate refugia is supposed to reserve a larger number of species under climate change and to improve the natural adaptation [115]. We recommend 54 and 27 protected areas in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat restoration priority and refugia based on integrated climate and land-use dynamics, respectively ( Table 2). ...
Article
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Indonesia has a large number of primate diversity where a majority of the species are threatened. In addition, climate change is conservation issues that biodiversity may likely face in the future, particularly among primates. Thus, species-distribution modeling was useful for conservation planning. Herein, we present protected areas (PA) recommendations with high nature-conservation importance based on species-richness changes. We performed maximum entropy (Maxent) to retrieve species distribution of 51 primate species across Indonesia. We calculated species-richness change and range shifts to determine the priority of PA for primates under mitigation and worst-case scenarios by 2050. The results suggest that the models have an excellent performance based on seven different metrics. Current primate distributions occupied 65% of terrestrial landscape. However, our results indicate that 30 species of primates in Indonesia are likely to be extinct by 2050. Future primate species richness would be also expected to decline with the alpha diversity ranging from one to four species per 1 km2. Based on our results, we recommend 54 and 27 PA in Indonesia to be considered as the habitat-restoration priority and refugia, respectively. We conclude that species-distribution modeling approach along with the categorical species richness is effectively applicable for assessing primate biodiversity patterns.
... Negative values indicate planning units more frequently selected in the reprioritization locking-in all priorities in scheduling Scenario 3 design features of the assessment that might be lost if areas are protected ad-hoc without iterative updating of the plan to ensure that ecological connections are maintained. Coincidentally, all scenarios achieve targets for protecting climate refugia, indicating that all identified regions important for protecting biodiversity under climate change (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011) are contained within the A and A1 priority areas. However, land-sea connections are not necessarily preserved as areas are scheduled for action. ...
Article
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Abstract Systematic conservation planning identifies priority areas to cost‐effectively meet conservation targets. Yet, these tools rarely guide wholesale declaration of reserve systems in a single time step due to financial and implementation constraints. Rather, incremental scheduling of actions to progressively build reserve networks is required. To ensure this incremental action is guided by the original plan, and thus builds a reserve network that meets all conservation targets, strategic scheduling, and iterative planning is needed. We explore the issue of scheduling conservation actions using the national scale conservation plan for Papua New Guinea (PNG), commissioned by the PNG Conservation and Environment Protection Authority that identifies a comprehensive set of priority areas that meet conservation targets in both the land and sea. As part of the planning process a subset of areas were identified in collaboration as priorities for immediate action—termed areas of interest (AOIs). However, the extent to which targets are met if action stopped after implementing the AOIs is unknown. We test three possible implementation scenarios based on these priority areas to measure target achievement and shortfalls. We then consider how iterative planning would interact with scheduling actions to identify new long‐term priorities that will meet missing targets. Our results show that while a large number of conservation targets are met within the AOIs there are shortfalls for protecting threatened and range restricted endemic species. Meeting targets for these would require an updated set of national priorities and an additional 13% of land area compared with if all areas identified in the original assessment were protected in a single time step. This provides important insights into the benefits of strategic scheduling of implementation, as well as the need for capacity to monitor action and update priorities as implementation proceeds.
... The future impacts of climate change could result in (and are already resulting in) dire outcomes for the entire biosphere of the planet, and it is necessary to integrate climate change measures into the responsible authorities' strategies and planning (Target 13.2). The conservation authorities responsible for the management of protected areas should be urged to incorporate climate change-related measures not only to mitigate the fragmentation of sage-grouse habitats but also to prevent the further aggravation of the habitat deterioration, by taking a stance of identifying and protecting climate refugia, in order to cope with climate-driven changes [12]. It is an achievable and possible approach, to focus on vulnerability assessment and management for change (instead of static conditions), to be adopted in the overall mitigation, adaptation, impact reduction and early-warning for climate change (Target 13.3). ...
Article
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Wildlife species’ habitats throughout North America are subject to direct and indirect consequences of climate change. Vulnerability assessments for the Intermountain West regard wildlife and vegetation and their disturbance as two key resource areas in terms of ecosystems when considering climate change issues. Despite the adaptability potential of certain wildlife, increased temperature estimates of 1.67–2 °C by 2050 increase the likelihood and severity of droughts, floods, heatwaves and wildfires in Utah. As a consequence, resilient flora and fauna could be displaced. The aim of this study was to locate areas of habitat for an exemplary species, i.e., sage-grouse, based on current climate conditions and pinpoint areas of future habitat based on climate projections. The locations of wildlife were collected from Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) observations in addition to normal temperature and precipitation, vegetation cover and other ecosystem-related data. Four machine learning algorithms were then used to locate the current sites of wildlife habitats and predict suitable future sites where wildlife would likely relocate to, dependent on the effects of climate change and based on a timeframe of scientifically backed temperature-increase estimates. Our findings show that Random Forest outperforms other competing models, with an accuracy of 0.897, and a sensitivity and specificity of 0.917 and 0.885, respectively, and has great potential in Species Distribution Modeling (SDM), which can provide useful insights into habitat predictions. Based on this model, our predictions show that sage-grouse habitats in Utah will continue to decrease over the coming years due to climate change, producing a highly fragmented habitat and causing a loss of close to 70% of their current habitat. Priority Areas of Conservation (PACs) and protected areas might be deemed insufficient to halt this habitat loss, and more effort should be put into maintaining connectivity between patches to ensure the movement and genetic diversity within the sage-grouse population. The underlying data-driven methodical approach of this study could be useful for environmentalists, researchers, decision-makers, and policymakers, among others.
... Models that use mean annual temperature are common but do not account for seasonality, e.g., [53]. Approaches to incorporating seasonality include: using the mean temperature in the warmest/coldest quarter [54] or month [55]; seasonal mean temperature [56]; seasonal temperature range [57]; and seasonal precipitation [58,59]. It has been shown that using seasonal temperature extremes (e.g., maximum or minimum) can outperform annual average metrics in predictions of species-specific responses to inter-annual temperature variability [60][61][62] and identification of refugia [63]. ...
Article
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Climate-wise connectivity is essential to provide species access to suitable habitats in the future, yet we lack a consistent means of quantifying climate adaptation benefits of habitat linkages. Species range shifts to cooler climates have been widely observed, suggesting we should protect pathways providing access to cooler locations. However, in topographically diverse regions, the effects of elevation, seasonality, and proximity to large water bodies are complex drivers of biologically relevant temperature gradients. Here, we identify potential terrestrial and riparian linkages and their cooling benefit using mid-century summer and winter temperature extremes for interior coastal ranges in Northern California. It is rare for the same area to possess both terrestrial and riparian connectivity value. Our analysis reveals distinct differences in the magnitude and orientation of cooling benefits between the summer maximum and winter minimum temperatures provided by the linkages we delineated for the area. The cooling benefits for both linkage types were maximized to the west during summer, but upslope and to the northeast during winter. The approach we employ here provides an improved method to prioritize climate-wise connectivity and promote landscape resilience for topographically diverse regions.
... Anthropogenic climate change has led to increased global temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and increasing frequency and severity of extreme weather events (IPCC 2014a). While these changes are global, the ramifications occur at all scales, and decisions for adaptation must be made (Game et al. 2011). Coastal regions are unique and especially vulnerable to climate change (Frusher et al. 2016;Pinsky et al. 2019), and the impacts are diverse and often cumulative. ...
Article
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Planning for adaptation to climate change requires regionally relevant information on rising air and ocean temperatures, sea levels, increasingly frequent and intense storms, and other climate-related impacts. However, in many regions there are limited focused syntheses of the climate impacts, risks, and potential adaptation strategies for coastal marine areas and sectors. We report on a regional assessment of climate change impacts and recommendations for adaptation strategies in the NE Pacific Coast (British Columbia, Canada), conducted in collaboration with a regional planning and plan implementation partnership (Marine Plan Partnership for the North Pacific Coast), aimed at bridging the gaps between climate science and regional adaptation planning. We incorporated both social and ecological aspects of climate change impacts and adaptations, and the feedback mechanisms which may result in both increased risks and opportunities for the following areas of interest: “Ecosystems”, “Fisheries and Aquaculture”, “Communities”, and “Marine Infrastructure”. As next steps within the region, we propose proactive planning measures including communication of the key impacts and projections and cross-sectoral assessments of climate vulnerability and risk to direct decision-making.
... In a fourth step, we compare the median climate anomalies and other PA characteristics between national PA estates via a principal component analysis (PCA). The outcomes inform proactive management that can compensate for negative impacts of climate change on PA effectiveness (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011). Our work sets out to support climate-smart policy and management of PAs, particularly at the national to local level. ...
Article
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Aim Protected areas are essential to conserve biodiversity and ecosystem benefits to society under increasing human pressures of the Anthropocene. Anthropogenic climate change, however, threatens the enduring effectiveness of protected areas in conserving biodiversity and providing ecosystem services, because it modifies and redistributes biodiversity with unknown consequences for ecosystem functioning within protected areas. Here, we assess (a) the climate change exposure of the global terrestrial protected area estate and (b) the climate change vulnerability of national protected area estates. Location Terrestrial protected areas worldwide. Methods We calculated local climate change exposure as predicted climate anomalies between the present and 2070 using ten global climate models, two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) and the finest spatial resolution available for global climate projections (approx. 1 km). We estimated the climate change vulnerability of national protected area estates by analysing countrywide relationships between protected areas’ climate anomalies and other protected area characteristics, that is area, elevation, terrain ruggedness, human footprint and irreplaceability for globally threatened species. Results We found predicted climate anomalies highest in protected areas of (sub‐)tropical countries. The correlations between climate anomalies and protected area characteristics strongly differ between countries. Globally, protected areas showing large climate anomalies tend to be at high elevation and highly irreplaceable for threatened species, increasing climate change vulnerability. These protected areas are relatively large in area, of high topographic heterogeneity and less pressured by humans, decreasing climate change vulnerability. Main conclusion This study reveals potential hotspots of climate change impact inside the terrestrial protected area estate. It thus supports and guides climate‐smart conservation policy and management, particularly national to local authorities, to ensure the future effectiveness of protected areas in preserving biodiversity and ecosystem benefits under climate change.
... However, more research on the impacts of climate change and the conservation management of these unique ecosystems is needed (Cartwright and Wolfe 2016), in order to identify appropriate climate-change adaptation strategies. This need is pronounced for networks of reserves that include wetlands, because these conservation areas have typically not been created to address climate change (Araújo et al. 2011;Game et al. 2011;Schneider and Bayne 2015). ...
Article
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ContextClimate change adaptive management strategies for isolated habitats such as wetlands are urgently needed. Conservation areas managed for wildlife refuges can be considered a network, permitting the tracking of current climate conditions within the network under projected future climates.Objectives We ask how many classes of temporal climate dynamics exist within a set of 48 refuges that comprise a network of conservation areas.Methods We identified the current-climate conditions of 48 US National Wildlife Refuges using their annual average of minimum temperature and annual precipitation. We then mapped the movement of analogous climates for each refuge from current to future-time periods under four climate projections. We identified distinct types of analog climate dynamics among the network of wildlife refuges that can inform climate-adaptive natural resource planning.ResultsWe identified five analogous climate categories: (1) disappearing climates; (2) single-analogous climates; (3) multiple-analogous climates; (4) enduring climates; and (5) climate hubs, with some refuges occupying up to three classes. Using four climate projections, we found 10–25 refuges are climatically disappeared; 8–16 whose climate conditions appear in only one other unit; three whose current climate appears in many other refuges; three that are climatically stable; and four that are climate hubs.Conclusions The relative geographic isolation of refuges makes them particularly appropriate for use as nodes in a network-based climate assessment. The climate classification of the nodes can help inform selection from among multiple refuge management strategies based on their relative analogous climate dynamics. For example, new refuges could be identified to account for species inhabiting climatically disappearing refuges.
... Indeed, some researchers advocate forecast-free approaches to conservation planning, arguing that climate projections are best ignored given the uncertainty associated with them (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011;Groves et al., 2012). However, an alternative approach is to focus on what conclusions might be drawn despite this uncertainty (Lawler & Michalak, 2018). ...
Article
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Climate change is expected to alter the distributions of species around the world, but estimates of species’ outcomes vary widely among competing climate scenarios. Where should conservation resources be directed to maximize expected conservation benefits given future climate uncertainty? Here, we explore this question by quantifying variation in fish species’ distributions across future climate scenarios in the Red River basin south‐central United States. We modeled historical and future stream fish distributions using a suite of environmental covariates derived from high‐resolution hydrologic and climatic modeling of the basin. We quantified variation in outcomes for individual species across climate scenarios and across space, and identified hotspots of species loss by summing changes in probability of occurrence across species. Under all climate scenarios, we find that the distribution of most fish species in the Red River Basin will contract by 2050. However, the variability across climate scenarios was more than 10 times higher for some species than for others. Despite this uncertainty in outcomes for individual species, hotspots of species loss tended to occur in the same portions of the basin across all climate scenarios. We also find that the most common species are projected to experience the greatest range contractions, underscoring the need for directing conservation resources toward both common and rare species. Our results suggest that while it may be difficult to predict which species will be most impacted by climate change, it may nevertheless be possible to identify spatial priorities for climate mitigation actions that are robust to future climate uncertainty. These findings are likely to be generalizable to other ecosystems around the world where future climate conditions follow prevailing historical patterns of key environmental covariates.
... For conservation planning purposes, researchers recommend integrating environmental metrics targeting a range of refugia types (Ashcroft 2010) and scales (Carroll et al. 2017;Michalak et al. 2020). Climate-based (ie coarse-filter, broadscale) macrorefugia can be identified by locating places with low climate-change exposure (Game et al. 2011;Belote et al. 2018) or low climate velocity (speed and direction needed to maintain the same climate conditions; Loarie et al. 2009;Hamann et al. 2015), indicating analogous climatic conditions either are retained in place or remain in close proximity to their historical locations (Carroll et al. 2017). Species distribution models can then identify regions with high speciesspecific (ie fine-filter) refugia potential (Stralberg et al. 2018). ...
Article
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Climate‐change adaptation focuses on conducting and translating research to minimize the dire impacts of anthropogenic climate change, including threats to biodiversity and human welfare. One adaptation strategy is to focus conservation on climate‐change refugia (that is, areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and sociocultural resources). In this Special Issue, recent methodological and conceptual advances in refugia science will be highlighted. Advances in this emerging subdiscipline are improving scientific understanding and conservation in the face of climate change by considering scale and ecosystem dynamics, and looking beyond climate exposure to sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We propose considering refugia in the context of a multifaceted, long‐term, network‐based approach, as temporal and spatial gradients of ecological persistence that can act as “slow lanes” rather than areas of stasis. After years of discussion confined primarily to the scientific literature, researchers and resource managers are now working together to put refugia conservation into practice.
... Further, by conserving paleo-climate refugia (areas with stable climate from geological times, to the present and into the future), ecological and evolutionary factors may be captured as these sites can contain endemic and threatened species (Reside et al., 2013) and harbour diverse genetic material (Bennett and Provan, 2008). Therefore, the identification of climate change refugia is a biodiversity conservation priority (Game et al., 2011;Groves et al., 2012;Shoo et al., 2013). For example, the New South Wales (NSW) (Australia) Government's Priorities for Biodiversity Adaptation to Climate Change (DECCW, 2010) explicitly states that a key action for strengthening the protected area system is to "identify characteristics and locations of climate refugia in NSW bioregions and prioritise these in criteria for protection" (Action 2.6). ...
Article
Climate change presents a substantial threat to species unable to keep pace via migration or adaptation. In-situ climate refugia, areas currently occupied by a species and that remain suitable in the future, will be vital for species with dispersal limitations. Ex-situ refugia, areas beyond species' current ranges that remain suitable, may facilitate range shifts or provide options for translocation. Assessing both refugia is a conservation priority. Here, we identify refugia for 319 species threatened in New South Wales, using four plausible scenarios describing futures that are Warmer/Wetter, Warmer/Drier, Hotter/Wetter and Hotter/Little Precipitation change, relative to the present. Using Maxent, we identify (a) in-situ refugia for each species under each scenario; (b) regions of consensus-areas projected as in-situ refugia across all scenarios; (c) hotspots of in-situ refugia (regions suitable for > 1 species); and (d) regions of consensus for ex-situ refugia. Species were categorised based on the extent of in-and ex-situ refugia. By 2070, refugia will likely be broadest, and narrowest, under the Warmer/Wetter and Hotter/Wetter scenarios, respectively. East coast regions currently suitable for multiple species are unlikely to remain as hotspots. Most species (65%) are projected to have limited regions of consensus for either refugia. Translocation should be explored for species with little-to-no in-situ refugia, but for which ex-situ refugia exist. Management of existing populations will be critical for species with in-situ refugia but limited ex-situ. We highlight how management decisions based on agreement across climate scenarios can be made, irrespective of uncertainty about the magnitude of climate change.
... Moreover, human land-use activities in multi-use landscapes can destroy valuable habitat that could otherwise buffer climate-related impacts on species (Haddad et al., 2015). A key strategy for promoting species adaptation to climate change in multi-use landscapes is to identify and conserve areas that will remain climatically suitable through time (Game et al., 2011), or areas where climate variables will relatively stable and hence support species persistence and adaptation under altered climates (Ashcroft, 2010;Keppel et al., 2012). ...
Article
Retaining and restoring habitat in areas that will remain climatically suitable through time is a key strategy for helping species' adapt to climate change - particularly in multi-use landscapes where species' find it difficult to track suitable climates. We advance on existing climate-smart conservation planning studies to identify retention and restoration priorities for potential climate change refugia sites in a vast multi-use landscape. We illustrate our approach for Australia's Great Dividing Range (GDR), where the entire habitat of 26 vertebrate species – including 11 endemics – will be climatically unsuitable by the year 2085 under a high emissions scenario. We developed two planning scenarios to secure areas that will remain climatically suitable for an additional 1036 vertebrate species in the GDR – a scenario that permits both the retention of high quality habitat and the restoration of land currently used for forestry or agriculture (i.e. ‘balanced’)and a scenario that favours the retention of high quality habitat above land restoration efforts (i.e. ‘retention-focused’). For both planning scenarios, we identified priority conservation areas that will complement existing protected areas in the GDR and then compared ecological trade-offs associated with adopting a balanced or retention-focused approach to conservation. We found that a retention-focused approach would deliver equivalent ecological benefits for most species, and enhanced conservation of climatically suitable area for 95 other species, when compared to a balanced planning approach. Under a balanced planning approach, seventy-four percent of high priority conservation area (49,650 km ² )would overlap with forestry or agricultural land-uses, and hence will require extensive restoration efforts to serve as habitat for climate-imperilled species. However, we found that at least 270 species in the GDR rely heavily on ecological restoration of agricultural lands to persist under climate change. Our study provides immediate guidance for on-ground management actions, and provides a robust methodology that can support climate change adaptation decisions in multi-use landscapes around the world.
... A number of studies call for increased attention to be paid to the identification of potential refugia (Noss 2001, Ashcroft 2010, Game et al. 2011, Keppel et al. 2015. Due to the importance of refugia for species survival in the past (Taberlet 1998, Svenning et al. 2008, their importance for current species distributions (Birks and Willis 2008), and how current distributions play an imperative role in deriving estimates of past refugia (Stewart and Lister 2001), presentday refugia can be expected to be important for species distributions in the future. ...
Thesis
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Arctic-alpine regions are facing notable changes in climatic conditions. The impacts of climate change on the environment and biota have been tackled in a range of earlier studies, but improved understanding is needed to assess how these changes cascade into the distributions of species in space and time, and ultimately, what they might mean for the Arctic-alpine realm as we know it. Such information is crucial as these high-latitude environments are expected to be among those most susceptible to ongoing global change. This vulnerability highlights the importance of identifying the key drivers of Arctic-alpine plant richness patterns as well as the landscape features that support the persistence of species populations and richness. This thesis will address the aforementioned knowledge gaps by 1) examining the determinants and spatial nature of present-day refugia; 2) investigating drivers of plant richness features and how projected richness hotspots coincide with conservation areas; 3) forecasting refugia for species persistence and how they are related to topo-geological features; and 4) predicting forthcoming changes in species distributions and sensitivity, and whether these are affected by biogeographic history. To accomplish these objectives, multiple statistical modelling approaches were combined with extensive data on species occurrences and ecologically relevant environmental drivers. Models were built for refugia, individual vascular plant species, and various aspects of species richness. Changes in species responses were projected across different climate scenarios and landscapes in an environmentally variable, large geographic area in Fennoscandia. Results revealed a pronounced climate-dependency of high-latitude species and refugia, suggesting that climate change will have a substantial impact on the region’s flora. However, the incorporation of topo-geological drivers consistently and significantly improved models and forecasts of refugia. Given this, refugia may be especially important for species persistence under more severe climate scenarios and could be particularly critical for threatened and range-restricted species. Diversity hotspots exhibited low congruence due to variance in key drivers: for example, total species richness prospers in warmer conditions, while hotspots of range-restricted species occur near the cooler Northern Scandes. Protected areas in northern Fennoscandia offer limited coverage – on average, 50% – for these important culminations of biodiversity. The sensitivity of high-latitude flora to climate change depends not only on predicted levels of warming, but on regional geography and species biogeographic history. As such – and contrary to global estimates – the findings herein do not predict poleward range center shifts. Northern Arctic species are more likely to experience southward contractions and become endangered through range loss. The Northern Scandes are projected to be particularly susceptible to change. The forecast southbound and upslope migrations draw attention to high elevations in the Southern Scandes for the persistence of cold-adapted flora, though suitable habitat may not persist for all threatened species. This thesis demonstrates the potential significance – and some unexpected effects – of climate change in the Arctic-alpine realm. Findings of substantial, non-poleward range contractions and a decrease in species richness may be counterbalanced by results highlighting the relevance of refugia in safeguarding Arctic-alpine vegetation. Importantly, forecasts of species distributions are affected by landscape-scale factors and biogeographical history, opening interesting avenues for future research. In general, this study demonstrates the critical role of highquality data, sampled at resolutions reflecting significant environmental gradients, for developing useful models of species distributions and richness patterns. The methods used allowed refugia and diversity to be successfully modelled. This provides further insight into current and future conditions for high-latitude flora, and highlights the importance of underlying ecological knowledge. From an applied point of view, the results of this thesis highlight the significance of recognizing topo-geologically defined areas in future forecasts of diversity patterns. These findings of the potential locations and environmental parameters of refugia and ecosystem changes can be used to inform conservation strategies within the Arctic-alpine realm and beyond.
... Guan, Hou, Liu, & Zhou, 2017;Santangeli, Rajasärkkä, & Lehikoinen, 2016; Thomas, Cameron, & Green, 2004). The ancient ecological record of climate change and the model simulation of future species distribution both confirm that climate change is unprecedentedly altering the biodiversity spatial patterns on earth, which has brought serious challenges for biodiversity conservation (Game, Lipsett-Moore, Saxon, Peterson, & Sheppard, 2011, Gillson, Dawson, Jack, & Mcgeoch, 2013Wan, Wang, & Yu, 2017). Some new conservation strategies in response to climate change are critically required to be able to adapt and allocate financial resources efficiently (Hannah, Belant, Beevert, Gross, & Lawler, 2010;Parmesan et al., 2013;Wang et al., 2018). ...
Article
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Climate change‐induced species range shift may pose severe challenges to species conservation. The Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau is the highest and biggest plateau, and also one of the most sensitive areas to global warming in the world, which provides important shelters for a unique assemblage of species. Here, ecological niche‐based model was employed to project the potential distributions of 59 key rare and endangered species under three climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in Qinghai Province. I assessed the potential impacts of climate change on these key species (habitats, species richness and turnover) and effectiveness of nature reserves (NRs) in protecting these species. The results revealed that that climate change would shrink the geographic ranges of about a third studied species and expand the habitats for two thirds of these species, which would thus alter the conservation value of some local areas and conservation effectiveness of some NRs in Qinghai Province. Some regions require special attention as they are expected to experience significant changes in species turnover, species richness or newly colonized species in the future, including Haidong, Haibei and Haixi junctions, the southwestern Yushu, Qinghai Nuomuhong Provincial NR, Qinghai Qaidam and Haloxylon Forest NR. The Haidong and the eastern part of Haibei, are projected to have high species richness and conservation value in both current and future, but they are currently not protected, and thus require extra protection in the future. The results could provide the first basis on the high latitude region to formulate biodiversity conservation strategies on climate change adaptation.
... Synergistic responses through ecosystems-based adaptation and marine spatial planning have worked well in addressing multiple drivers of change on vulnerable coastlines particularly in Small Island Developing States. In Papua New Guinea, for instance, 'climate refugia' is used as a management tool to integrate biodiversity into National Adaptation Plans (Game et al. 2011). The notion that climatic and non-climatic drivers interact on multiple levels and often impact life support systems is not new (MA 2005). ...
Article
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Integrated and transdisciplinary approaches are necessary in hotspots research where the intention is to influence policy and practice. Knowing that climate change will impact major ecosystem services and the sustainability of life support systems, a critical examination of the hotspot concept and approach is undertaken to pursue synergistic responses. Hotspots 2.0 embodies current thinking about planning towards multiple drivers of change and seeing human and natural systems as mutually inter-dependent and benefiting from integrated policy approaches. Such proposed adaptation interventions to inter-related stressors will complement biodiversity conservation, disaster risk reduction, and human well-being. Through a systematic review, we assess 114 relevant peer review cases to examine integrative responses to climatic and non-climatic vulnerabilities in various hotspot regions. Furthermore, we illustrate the utility of the Hotspots 2.0 approach using emerging insights from the ‘Collaborative Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia’ in semi-arid regions, deltas, and glacier-fed river basin hotspots. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s13280-018-1120-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
... An alternative to species-driven models is to evaluate the distribution of future climate space, or the area of land climatically suitable for a particular species. Using climate space to prioritize locations aggregates the overall similarity of conditions that should benefit many species to offer the greatest climate space benefit under the assumption that maintaining access to cooler climates is a high priority ( Game et al. 2011). ...
Technical Report
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Keeping landscapes connected via habitat linkages is the most frequently recommended approach to maintain ecosystem resilience in the face of climate change. However, in general, local land conservation agencies and their partners lack sufficient data to advance on-the-ground projects in a way that accounts for the connectivity value and climate benefit of landscape linkages. Here we integrate state-of-the-art spatial modeling, informed by critical input from local conservation experts and practitioners, to generate and evaluate a priority site within a potential regional linkage network. Our analysis accounts for both ecological function and climate vulnerabilities to advance habitat corridor climate adaptation initiatives across county borders. This collaboration provides much needed coordination to maximize efforts and funding across the many people and organizations dedicated to protecting the region’s land, water and plant and animal life. This project builds on a nascent Landscape Connectivity Network facilitated by Pepperwood and is comprised of participants from land trusts, parks and open space districts, and state and federal land managers. We evaluated connectivity for the Mayacamas to Berryessa (M2B) region by conducting a permeability assessment and generating spatial layers and maps of existing continuous wild land areas and riparian zones. These permeability maps were used to generate linkages between core habitats for terrestrial and riparian connectivity. Next, we determined the climate benefit provide by each terrestrial linkage to quantify the extent to which the protected area network maintains climate connectivity. Using a combination of the resulting linkages and climate benefit analyses, the project team and stakeholders identified critical habitats and priority locations where continuous habitat zones narrow to a degree where long-term connectivity is threatened. The spatial data generated by the M2B project is complemented by a companion M2B Methodology Report (Gray et al. 2018), six focal corridor-specific reports, and outreach materials to support linkage funding and implementation. The six M2B-derived habitat corridor projects vary in scale from a single linkage connecting two protected areas to a regional connectivity design comprised of multiple linkages between several protected areas.
... Several "forecast-free" planning responses to climate change have been proposed. The most popular include protecting climatic refugia, increasing connectivity, and what has come to be known as "protecting nature's stage" (Game et al., 2011;Groves et al., 2012). Although all three approaches have merit, those who champion them as a substitute for climate forecasts overlook a key issue. ...
Chapter
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This chapter explores the relative uncertainty associated with popular approaches to conservation planning in the face of climate change. Concern about uncertainties inherent in climate-change projections and associated ecological impacts have led many in the conservation community to avoid climate modeling, and instead favor forecast-free approaches that involve increasing connectivity and protecting “nature’s stage” (geophysical settings) to produce climate-smart conservation plans. A comparison of each of these approaches reveals that the uncertainties associated with connectivity modeling and mapping geophysical settings can be as large, if not larger than, the uncertainties associated with climate-change projections. Whereas the uncertainties of climate forecasts are widely appreciated, the same cannot be said for the approaches that avoid climate forecasts. It is not the case that there is one best approach. The answer to uncertainty is to seek robust conservation plans that work regardless of which approach is taken.
... In the 2010 paper, we suggested criteria that may help in the selection of key vulnerabilities, but we did not suggest a particular process for evaluating vulnerability, as we were unaware of the existence of any well-vetted approach at the time. Since then, a number of sources have come available describing the process of vulnerability assessment (Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies 2009, Foden et al. 2008, Game et al. 2010, Game et al. 2011, Glick et al. 2011, Swanston et al. 2010). One of the most useful is Scanning the Conservation Horizon: A Guide to Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment published by the National Wildlife Federation with the support of a host of federal agencies, including the U.S. Forest Service (Glick et al. 2011). ...
Chapter
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The principle of ‘environmental integrity’ is a fundamental aspect of jus post bellum. Human life, economy, and culture depend on a healthy, functioning environment. However, environmental integrity is a complex concept to describe. Doctrinal thresholds for legally material environmental damage (significant, long-term, widespread) do not capture it. This chapter interrogates the jus post bellum literature and then turns to scholarship on wilderness management in the Anthropocene era, which also engages with the meaning of ‘environmental integrity’, ʼnaturalness’, ‘unimpaired’, or, in the words of the Factory at Chorzów case which sets the international law standard for reparations of damage, ‘the situation which would, in all probability, have existed if that act had not been committed’. Recognition that pristine or historical conditions are often impossible to recover or maintain leads to the legal, ethical, and scientific analysis of evolving environmental norms that this chapter offers.
... Puisqu'une multitude de propriétés physiques contribue à maintenir des communautés écologiques distinctes dans toute une gamme de climats (Rosenzweig, 1995), la conservation d'exemples représentatifs de ces propriétés devrait aider à protéger la biodiversité dans les conditions climatiques actuelles et futures (Beier et Brost, 2010). Les auteurs d'une étude ont découvert que les aires protégées définies en fonction de la diversité physique comptent pour plus de 90 % de la diversité retrouvée dans les communautés végétales (Game et al., 2011). La recherche éclaire aussi la prise des décisions par les gestionnaires du parc national Kouchibouguac, au Nouveau-Brunswick, où l'on a recours aux photos aériennes, à l'arpentage et aux travaux sur le terrain dans le but de documenter les changements survenus dans la zone côtière au cours des dernières décennies et de cerner les régions qui nécessiteront davantage de protection à l'avenir (Parcs . ...
... Few studies have explicitly mapped future climatic refugia (Loarie et al. 2008). Game et al. (2011 identified climatic refugia in Papua New Guinea as those locations projected to experience the least climate change. Both Loarie et al. (2008) and Stralberg et al. (2018) used species distribution models to identify species-specific climatic refugia. These analyses identify macro-, as opposed to micro-, refugia. The resolution of downsc ...
Article
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As evidenced by past climatic refugia, locations projected to harbor remnants of present-day climates may serve as critical refugia for current biodiversity in the face of modern climate change. We mapped potential climatic refugia in the future across North America, defined as locations with increasingly rare climatic conditions. We identified these locations by tracking projected changes in the size and distribution of climate analogs over time. We used biologically derived thresholds to define analogs and tested the impacts of dispersal limitation with 4 distances to limit analog searches. We identified at most 12% of North America as potential climatic refugia. Refugia extent varied depending on the analog threshold, dispersal distance, and climate projection. However, in all cases refugia were concentrated at high elevations and in topographically complex regions. Refugia identified using different climate projections were largely nested, suggesting that identified refugia were relatively robust to climate-projection selection. Existing conservation areas cover approximately 10% of North America and yet protected up to 25% of identified refugia, indicating that protected areas disproportionately include refugia. Refugia located at lower latitudes (≤40°N) and slightly lower elevations (approximately 2500 m) were more likely to be unprotected. Based on our results, a 23% expansion of the protected-area network would be sufficient to protect the refugia present under all 3 climate projections we explored. We believe these refugia are high conservation priorities due to their potential to harbor rare species in the future. However, these locations are simultaneously highly vulnerable to climate change over the long term. These refugia contracted substantially between the 2050s and the 2080s, which supports the idea that the pace of climate change will strongly determine the availability and effectiveness of refugia for protecting today's biodiversity.
Chapter
Man-made climate change affects nations like Papua New Guinea (PNG) in very harsh terms. People in PNG often do not really know and understand what caused it and how they can contribute to mitigate the actual cause of such all-encompassing change caused primarily by industrial nations from abroad. Instead, PNG did very well on climate change for over 47,000 years but was already used as a ‘pawn’ in the carbon sequestration game while global warming and CO2 release increases essentially unabated. All relevant agreements and COPs have achieved little on that matter; CO2 and such Greenhouse Gases (GHGs) are not much curbed whatsoever but rising. A ‘Carbon Cult,’ e.g. carbon sequestration programs like REDD and REDD+, have not been effective in changing these problems, essentially made it worse and thus failed on what they were to deliver in earnest. The ancient old-growth forests pay that price; all relevant metrics show that clearly. In the meantime, PNG and its islands feel the full impacts of sea level rise, ocean acidification, coral reef death and coastal erosion. Many cultures start to get moved, beyond ‘just’ the Carteret Islands and the Torres Strait region with vast risk planning scenarios on the rise affecting millions of people, villages and cultures.KeywordsPapua New Guinea (PNG)Carbon sequestrationCarbon stock exchangeREDD+ Climate changeClimate justice
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Species conservation often faces many challenges, such as addressing threats from multiple stressor sources, representing under-studied taxa, and understanding implications of spatial extent. To overcome these challenges, we assessed contemporary anthropogenic threats from stream fragmentation and landscape disturbance as well as future habitat suitability under climate change for traditionally well-studied (fishes) and under-studied (mussels) imperiled fluvial taxa in Michigan, USA. To understand how threats to species vary spatially, predicted habitat suitability was analyzed for three hierarchically nested spatial extents: statewide, within species’ biogeographic ranges, and within river patches fragmented by barriers. Comparison of current and future habitat suitability for 27 fish and 23 mussel species indicates large potential statewide gains for many warmwater and/or large river fishes and several mussel species, however these gains are greatly diminished by biogeographic range limitations and habitat fragmentation among current and future habitats. One mussel species and several cold- and coolwater fishes are projected to have significant habitat losses under climate change irrespective of spatial extent. On average, 79% of habitats for mussels and 58% for fishes were considered moderately to severely disturbed from current human landscape activities. Habitat fragmentation was greater for fishes than mussels, with large dams playing a primary role in fragmenting habitats relative to small dams and waterfalls. Results indicate that threat assessments can vary substantially according to spatial extent and taxa, and consideration of both contemporary and future threats to habitats is needed to inform conservation of imperiled fluvial organisms.
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This study applied MARXAN to identify cost-efficient areas for biodiversity protection, within the Thy National Park in Denmark. Public authorities have requested a more systematic approach to managing public land, which identifies cost-effective solutions and potential trade-offs between economic cost and biodiversity benefits. The aim of this study was to support the local management staff in setting conservation targets and prioritizing their management efforts. This was addressed through the creation of two primary scenarios: i) applying uniform conservation targets to all biodiversity features, and ii) heterogeneous targets addressing various degrees of conservation importance. Four sub-scenarios were established for each primary scenario to investigate the implications of various conservation targets on conservation cost. Local data on red-listed species and habitat types were used to assess biodiversity benefits. Detailed cost estimates of required conservation actions were included. The results indicated that scenarios with uniform conservation targets provided more flexible networks of protected areas but contributed less to target achievement and a smaller share of selected planning units overlapped with current protected areas. Applying heterogeneous targets based on threat status resulted in a higher degree of target achievement and compactness, but provided less flexible networks. However, these networks may be more suitable for efficient management due to a higher level of clustering and spatial overlap with threatened species distributions.
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This study endorses the main findings of a PhD thesis (Hoffmann 2020) and the manuscripts included intend to advance the success of protected areas in biodiversity conservation mediated through effective and efficient protected area management. The manuscripts provide missing scientific evaluations that modern conservation planning over large geographical extents requires: the comprehensive quantification of species diversity within and between protected areas; the development and application of efficient and effective in-situ monitoring and remote sensing of species diversity; and the assessment of anthropogenic climate change threats to protected areas. Moreover, the manuscripts aim at spreading conservation-minded data and knowledge by means of publishing open-access papers, open-source software and open data. This thesis synopsis is to stimulate a growing scientific and public debate on the effectiveness of protected areas and nature conservation under anthropogenic threats, which is necessary to stop nature’s decline and thus guarantee a sustainable future for the welfare of generations to come.
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Recently, South Asian countries have committed their mitigation targets to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. This study examines the effectiveness of these efforts by developing a dynamic computable general equilibrium-water-energy (CGE-WE) model. Using the GTAP database version 9, it examines how different sectors respond to these policies in South Asia. Besides, it argues that an improved irrigation system can reduce the output losses caused by the mitigation policies. In a nutshell, the cost of improving irrigation system is USD 159.7 million in Bangladesh, 224 million in India, 9.1 million in Nepal, 38.5 million in Pakistan and 10.4 million in Sri Lanka. The proposed adaptation strategy can save more than USD 76.43 billion in the region after fulfilling the region’s commitment toward the global mitigation efforts.
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Global and national commitments to slow biodiversity loss by expanding protected area networks also provide opportunities to evaluate conservation priorities in the face of climate change. Using recently developed indicators of climatic macrorefugia, environmental diversity, and corridors, we conducted a systematic, climate‐informed prioritization of conservation values across North America. We explicitly considered complementarity of multiple conservation objectives, capturing key niche‐based temperature and moisture thresholds for 324 tree species and 268 songbird species. Conservation rankings were influenced most strongly by climate corridors and species‐specific refugia layers. Although areas of high conservation value under climate change were partially aligned with existing protected areas, ∼80% of areas within the top quintile of biome‐level conservation values lack formal protection. Results from this study and application of our approach elsewhere can help improve the long‐term value of conservation investments at multiple spatial scales.
Book
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The rate of species and natural habitat loss across our planet is steadily accelerating. This book argues that existing practises of plant conservation are inadequate and firmly supports the placement of ecological restoration at the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. The author unifies different aspects of conservation into one coherent concept, including natural area protection, ex situ conservation and in situ interventions through either population management or ecological restoration. Assisted colonization, experimentation, and utilization of threatened plant species are raised as crucial elements in restoration, with partly novel ecosystems being among its major target areas. Covering a wide spectrum of plant conservation examples, and offering practical methodologies alongside the theoretical context, this is a vital resource for students, research scientists and practitioners in conservation biology and restoration ecology.
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The demand for spatial climate data in digital form has risen dramatically in recent years. In response to this need, a variety of statistical techniques have been used to facilitate the production of GIS-compatible climate maps. However, observational data are often too sparse and unrepresentative to directly support the creation of high-quality climate maps and data sets that truly represent the current state of knowledge, An effective approach is to use the wealth of expert knowledge on the spatial patterns of climate and their relationships with geographic features, termed 'geospatial climatology', to help enhance, control, and parameterize a statistical technique. Described here is a dynamic knowledge-based framework that allows for the effective accumulation, application, and refinement of climatic knowledge, as expressed in a statistical regression model known as PRISM (parameter-elevation regressions on independent slopes model). The ultimate goal is to develop an expert system capable of reproducing the process a knowledgeable climatologist would use to create high-quality climate maps, with the added benefits of consistency and repeatability. However, knowledge must first be accumulated and evaluated through an ongoing process of model application; development of knowledge prototypes, parameters and parameter settings; testing; evaluation; and modification. This paper describes the current state of a knowledge-based framework for climate mapping and presents specific algorithms from PRISM to demonstrate how this framework is applied and refined to accommodate difficult climate mapping situations. A weighted climate-elevation regression function acknowledges the dominant influence of elevation on climate. Climate stations are assigned weights that account for other climatically important factors besides elevation. Aspect and topographic exposure, which affect climate at a variety of scales, from hill slope to windward and leeward sides of mountain ranges, are simulated by dividing the terrain into topographic facets. A coastal proximity measure is used to account for sharp climatic gradients near coastlines. A 2-layer model structure divides the atmosphere into a lower boundary layer and an upper free atmosphere layer, allowing the simulation of temperature inversions, as well as mid-slope precipitation maxima. The effectiveness of various terrain configurations at producing orographic precipitation enhancement is also estimated. Climate mapping examples are presented.
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Less than 6% of the coterminous United States is in nature reserves. As- sessment of the occurrence of nature reserves across ranges of elevation and soil productivity classes indicates that nature reserves are most frequently found at higher elevations and on less productive soils. The distribution of plants and animals suggests that the greatest number of species is found at lower elevations. A preliminary assessment of the occurrence of mapped land cover types indicates that ;60% of mapped cover types have ,10% of their area in nature reserves. Land ownership patterns show that areas of lower elevation and more productive soils are most often privately owned and already extensively converted to urban and agricultural uses. Thus any effort to establish a system of nature reserves that captures the full geographical and ecological range of cover types and species must fully engage the private sector.
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conservation dollars to address this crisis has had a profound influence on the planning methods and conservation strate-gies of governmental and nongovernmental organizations. For example, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) and Conservation International have pinpointed priority ecoregions and bio-diversity "hotspots," respectively, that represent some of the most significant remaining regions for conserving the world's biological diversity (Olson and Dinerstein 1998, Myers et al. 2000). Both The Nature Conservancy (TNC) (Master et al. 1998) and World Wildlife Fund (Abell et al. 2000) have set con-servation priorities at the scale of large watersheds for fresh-water ecosystems in the United States. The National Gap Analysis Program (GAP) of the US Geological Survey's Bio-logical Resources Division is using biological survey data, remote sensing, and geographic information systems (GIS) technology at the state level to identify those native species and ecosystems that are not adequately represented in existing con-servation lands, in other words, the aim of the program is to detect conservation "gaps" (Jennings 2000). Some state governments in the United States are also developing their own biodiversity conservation plans (e. g., Kautz and Cox 2001).
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Current predictions of how species will respond to climate change are based on coarse-grained climate surfaces or idealized scenarios of uniform warming. These predictions may erroneously estimate the risk of extinction because they neglect to consider spatially heterogenous warming at the landscape scale or identify refugia where species can persist despite unfavourable regional climate. To address this issue, we investigated the heterogeneity in warming that has occurred in a 10 km × 10 km area from 1972 to 2007. We developed estimates by combining long-term daily observations from a limited number of weather stations with a more spatially comprehensive dataset (40 sites) obtained during 2005–2006. We found that the spatial distribution of warming was greater inland, at lower elevations, away from streams, and at sites exposed to the northwest (NW). These differences corresponded with changes in weather patterns, such as an increasing frequency of hot, dry NW winds. As plant species were biased in the topographic and geographic locations they occupied, these differences meant that some species experienced more warming than others, and are at greater risk from climate change. This species bias could not be detected at coarser scales. The uneven seasonal nature of warming (e.g. more warming in winter, minimums increased more than maximums) means that climate change predictions will vary according to which predictors are selected in species distribution models. Models based on a limited set of predictors will produce erroneous predictions when the correct limiting factor is not selected, and this is difficult to avoid when temperature predictors are correlated because they are produced using elevation-sensitive interpolations. The results reinforce the importance of downscaling coarse-grained (∼50 km) temperature surfaces, and suggest that the accuracy of this process could be improved by considering regional weather patterns (wind speed, direction, humidity) and topographic exposure to key wind directions.
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Book
IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios Contents: Foreword Preface Summary for policymakers Technical Summary Chapter 1: Background and Overview Chapter 2: An Overview of the Scenario Literature Chapter 3: Scenario Driving Forces Chapter 4: An Overview of Scenarios Chapter 5: Emission Scenarios Chapter 6: Summary Discussions and Recommendations
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Climate change will rapidly alter the abiotic environment of many localities leading to significant losses of biodiversity in ecosystems unable to adapt quickly. However, local extirpation will be least likely where environmental change is slowest. Such locations will offer refugia for species with narrow environmental ranges, provide persistent sources of colonists, offer transitory homes for dispersers and serve as platform sites on which new community assemblages develop. Consequently, networks of protected areas that include such sites will conserve more biodiversity. Conventional protected area network selection algorithms give priority to areas with the lowest current cost. I added projected environmental change as a cost factor. I applied the modified algorithm in three arctic ecoregions where climate change is predicted to be extremely rapid and to 20 tropical ecoregions where the pace of climate change will be slower but many species are vulnerable to small changes. I identified protected area networks that protect places where change will be slowest in all ecoregions. These climate-adaptive protected area networks differ substantially from both current protected area networks and near-optimal networks that are based only on current costs. The modified method will help protected area planners to acquire potential climate refugia and to help implement adaptive conservation strategies for potential refugia that are already protected. It will also help reduce the risk that projected refugia are unknowingly allocated to land uses incompatible with their critical role in biodiversity conservation.
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This study analyzes the variations in the structure and composition of ant communities in burned Pinus nigra forests in central Catalonia (NE Spain). Pinus nigra forests do not recover after fire, changing to shrublands and oak coppices. For this reason, we suggest that ant communities of burned P. nigra forests will change after fire, because the post-fire scenario, in particular with the increase of open areas, is different to the unburned one, and more favourable for some species than for others. In four locations previously occupied by P. nigra forests where different fires occurred 1, 5, 13 and 19 yr before the sampling, we sampled the structure and composition of ant communities with pitfall traps, tree traps and net sweeping in unburned plots and in plots affected by canopy and understory fire. The results obtained suggest that canopy and understory fire had little effect on the structure of ant communities. Thus, many variables concerning ant communities were not modified either by fire type (understory or canopy fire) or by time since fire. However, a number of particular species were affected, either positively or negatively, by canopy fire: three species characteristic of forest habitats decreased after fire, while eight species characteristic of open habitats increased in areas affected by canopy fire, especially in the first few years after fire. These differences in ant community composition between burned and unburned plots imply that the maximum richness is achieved when there is a mixture of unburned forests and areas burned with canopy fire. Moreover, as canopy cover in P. nigra forests burned with canopy fire is not completed in the period of time studied, the presence of the species that are characteristic of burned areas remains along the chronosequence studied, while the species that disappear after fire do not recover in the period of time considered. Overall, the results obtained indicate that there is a persistent replacement of ant species in burned P. nigra forests, as is also the case with vegetation.