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Spreadthink: Explaining Ineffective Groups
Abstract
Extended testing of the performance of small groups working with complex issues has revealed the pervasive existence of a phenomenon which is here named ‘Spreadthink’. This phenomenon accounts for worldwide ineffectiveness of groups of people trying to work together to resolve complex issues under conditions that neither recognize nor compensate for Spreadthink.
Since Spreadthink is an immobilizing phenomenon, it deserves widespread attention and appropriate compensatory action by leaders, managers and administrators wherever complex issues are under serious consideration in organizations.
Concurrent with the testing that uncovered and documented Spreadthink, measures that can be taken to overcome the effects of Spreadthink have been tested. The evidence that would prove the effectiveness of these measures is equal in extent, but much less quantitative in nature than the evidence that supports the presence of Spreadthink. Nevertheless, a significant case can be made to the effect that if Spreadthink can be overcome in a particular situation, the system of management called interactive management provides the capability to overcome it in that situation.
... GCs categorized their factors into 10 clusters whereas TCs categorized their factors into 9 clusters (Table 2; for detailed comparisons, refer to ). With a Spreadthink (ST) of 47%, the level of participants' disagreement was slightly higher than the expected average of 40% (Warfield 1995). In Warfield's words, the participants' views of the problématique of Cyprus' economic integration are "spread all over the map" (Warfield 1995, p. 5). ...
... co-laboratories organized in 1995, the following scientific measures were applied: Spreadthink, Situational Complexity Index, and Erroneous Priorities Effect. Spreadthink (ST) identifies the level of the stakeholders' disagreement on the most important factors to a problem and is defined as ST = (V -5)/(N -5) × 100(Warfield 1995). If all participants choose the same five factors as the most important factors to the problem, ST will be zero. ...
... Therefore, the higher the ST, the higher is the level of disagreement among the participants. The average level of disagreement is 40%(Warfield 1995).The Situational Complexity Index (SCI) demonstrates the complexity degree of a problem situation and is defined as SCI = DK(N -7)/R(R -1) (Christakis and Bausch 2006), with D = (V -5)/(N -5) V = number of ideas receiving one or more votes N = number of ideas generated K = number of connections in the map R = number of ideas in the map. ...
This paper reports the results of a series of three co-laboratories organized by the Civil Society Dialogue Project (between July and October 2007) that aimed at bringing together Turkish-speaking and Greek-speaking Cypriot citizens to share their experiences and work together to create a citizens' platform, as well as to devise an action plan for a reunited Cyprus. Twenty-one business and economist stakeholder representatives with diverse perspectives and experience participated in three successive bi-communal co-laboratories focused on the issue of economic integration in Cyprus, which was identified by Cypriot peace pioneers as one of the main causes of the perceived widening of the gap between the two divided communities in Cyprus. They invested more than 325 hours person-hours. The purpose of the co-laboratories was to support the dialogue of a motivated group of economists and business experts representing both communities. The co-laboratories provided space for exchanging ideas as well as exploring future options and goals, besides diagnosing current problems in economic integration and the free movement of goods and services in Cyprus. More specifically, the economic integration co-laboratories aimed at envisioning the ideal, desired situation, defining the current problematic economic situation on the island, and exploring the influences between alternative actions that could improve the current situation. The co-laboratories were organized using the Structured Dialogic Design process within the context of a rich web-based communication environment. We report the results from all three projects.
... We follow this with a review of a more expansive set of constitutive definitions from (Jackson, 2000(Jackson, , 2003 which are positioned within the four Burrell and Morgan paradigms (Burrell & Morgan, 1979). We then explore relevant ideas from the field of Systems Engineering (Warfield, 1995;. From this review we attempt to generate a more parsimonious definition and to explore whether there is a suitable constitutive definition for PSMs in general. ...
... Emerging from the systems science community, Warfield coined the term "spreadthink", a neologism to label the phenomenon of groups ineffectually dealing with complex issues (Warfield, 1995). We have interpreted Warfield's definition as describing the behaviour of groups dealing with problems to do with complexity and pluralism in the absence of a suitable of PSM, and therefore provides useful discrimination in our set theoretic approach. ...
... !needs to be observed for the relationship !"# ! ≡ !"# to be evaluated true, our set-theoretic approach enables us to use a large data set to refine our criteria and move away from judgment to a more objective assessment, 5. To avoid a separate determination of appropriate problem context e.g. that (!") pertains, the set [!] must also include definitional statements that relate to context i.e. as they do in (Warfield, 1995;. ...
When we use a PSM what is it we are actually doing? An answer to this question would enable the PSM community to considerably enlarge the available source of case studies by the inclusion of examples of non-codified PSM use. We start from Checkland’s own proposal for a “constitutive definition” of SSM, which originated from trying to answer the question of knowing when a claim of SSM use was legitimate. By extending this idea to a generic constitutive definition for all PSMs leads us to propose a self-consistent labelling schema for observed phenomena arising from PSMs in action. This consists of a set of testable propositions, which, through observation of putative PSM use, can be used to assess validity of claims of PSM use. Such evidential support for the propositions as may be found in putative PSM use can then make it back into a broader axiomatic formulation of PSMs through the use of a set-theoretic approach, which enables our method to scale to large data sets. The theoretical underpinning to our work is in causal realism and middle range theory. We illustrate our approach through the analysis of three case studies drawn from engineering organisations, a rich source of possible non-codified PSM use. The combination of a method for judging cases of non-codified PSM use, sound theoretical underpinning, and scalability to large data sets, we believe leads to a demystification of PSMs and should encourage their wider use.
... Research on the effectiveness of groups has identified some ways in which groups may work less well (e.g. Warfield, 1995). One issue which comes up concerning collaborative learning in general is that some members may get a 'free ride' (intentionally or not), becoming dependent on the other group members (Meirink et al., 2010), and social skills may need to be built into a course to pre-empt this (Johnson & Johnson, 1989). ...
... Research on effective/ineffective groups shows some practices (such as co-regulation, co-learning, exploratory talk) which might enable and support greater autonomy on the part of individual learners, as well as others (e.g. 'spreadthink' (Warfield, 1995), 'storming' or cumulative talk) which may tend to close off such possibilities. Different learners (e.g. higher or lower achievers) could reflect upon their experiences of collaboration and sense of learning and autonomy, to help identify what they had learned from working in a group or pair, and how this happened (Tassinari, 2013). ...
This book seeks to expand the research agendas on autonomy in language learning and teaching in diverse contexts, by examining the present landscape of established studies, identifying research gaps and providing practical future research directions. Based on empirical studies, it explores research agendas in five emerging domains: language learning and teaching in developing countries; social censure and teacher autonomy; learner autonomy and groups; learner autonomy and digital practice; and finally, learner autonomy and space. In doing so, it sheds new light on the impact of digital media, group dynamics and the application of ecological perspectives on learner autonomy. The contributors present a novel reconsideration of new learning affordances, and their discussion of spatial dimensions provides much needed expansion in the field. This book will have international appeal and provide an invaluable resource for students and scholars of second language learning and higher education, as well as teacher educators.
Alice Chik is Senior Lecturer in Educational Studies at Macquarie University, Australia.
Naoko Aoki is Professor of the Graduate School of Letters, Osaka University, Japan, where she teaches Japanese as a second language pedagogy.
Richard Smith is a Reader and Associate Professor at the University of Warwick, UK.
Chapter 2 of this book is open access under a CC BY 4.0 license via link.springer.com.
... Research on the effectiveness of groups has identified some ways in which groups may work less well (e.g. Warfield, 1995). One issue which comes up concerning collaborative learning in general is that some members may get a 'free ride' (intentionally or not), becoming dependent on the other group members (Meirink et al., 2010); and social skills may need to be built into a course to pre-empt this (Johnson & Johnson, 1989). ...
... Research on effective/ineffective groups shows some practices (such as coregulation, co-learning, exploratory talk) which might enable and support greater autonomy on the part of individual learners, as well as others (e.g. 'spreadthink' (Warfield, 1995), 'storming' or cumulative talk) which may tend to close off such possibilities. Different learners (e.g. higher or lower achievers) could reflect upon their experiences of collaboration and sense of learning and autonomy, to help identify what they had learned from working in a group or pair, and how this happened (Tassinari, 2013). ...
Working in groups is a popular teaching strategy associated with communicative, task-based and other approaches in ELT. Learner autonomy has also become an influential concept and has been linked to groupwork. However, ideas about how learner autonomy (often seen as a set of skills in an individual) might develop through groupwork have tended to develop by practice and intuition more than through research. This chapter will consider some relevant questions about learner autonomy and groupwork, for example, individual autonomy in a group, learner support, autonomy development, group autonomy and conditions for group and individual autonomy. It will also discuss research approaches which have proved useful in other fields and how these might be applied in language learning and teaching contexts.
... • There must be agreed limits on the scope of the topics under discussion; spread think [36] must be avoided. ...
In order for an organization to meet its strategic objectives a change, in a combination of people, process or infrastructure, is often required. To enact this change an organizational design may be developed. There are currently many approaches to do this, however none take notice of intra-organizational issues. The organizational design approach introduced in this paper is a process that has been developed to drive the transition of an organization from its current to its future state, using systems principles. The process links the principles of established organizational design theory with problem structuring methods in order to support the delivery of organizational change within an engineering context.
... Collective decision making based on attempted consensus or explicit voting is fraught with subjective representation and cognitive bias. The well-known problems of groupthink [59,60] and lesser-known group cognitive biases of spreadthink and clanthink [61] are pervasive in group decision making and yet unrecognized by participants. Groupthink is a phenomenon that significantly affects the individual and group self-perception that consensus has occurred. ...
An action case study demonstrates an effective integration of collaborative planning using long-range foresight in a hierarchical government research organization. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the effectiveness of collaborative, bottom-up strategic planning as a complement to top-down strategizing. Large research institutions plan investment over long time horizons and must cope with significant uncertainty, complexity, and mandate changes. Collaborative foresight enhances organizational resilience by improving ideation, problem definition, and consensus in long-horizon strategies. It increases the variety of perspectives in scenario creation, resulting in improved strategic options. Structured Dialogic Design (SDD) was employed as a complementary strategic planning method to the mandated Capabilities-Based Planning (CBP) process. The two methods were conducted in parallel sessions with different organizational participants, strictly limiting information sharing between teams. Participants using SDD to plan efficiently produced a detailed structure representing long-horizon strategic challenges and solution ideas. This collaborative foresight approach demonstrated strong consensus for organizational priorities defined in scenarios and investment pathways. The SDD method demonstrated that transactive and generative planning integrated with traditional rational planning and surpassed it by incorporating deep tacit knowledge from diverse participants. It also fostered organizational cohesion through facilitated collaboration in the planning sessions.
... The complex relationships among the forms of higher-order thinking have yet to be examined satisfactorily " . (p. 5) Twentieth-century experimenters have documented how dysfunctional human performance when acting alone, in groups, and in organizations can mar a successful merger of the critical and constructive attitudes (Allison, 1971; Argyris, 1982; Boulding, 1966; Janis, 1982; Simon, 1974; Warfield, 1974 Warfield, , 1995). Some psychologists have emphasised the need for training both critical and constructive attitudes, labelling the merger 'productive thinking' (Wertheimer, 1959). ...
Quality thinking and quality teaching are desirable but difficult to achieve. Although lectures are necessary to teach information, one cannot rely on them to promote critical and constructive thinking skills. Nevertheless, didacticism remains the dominant teaching strategy in secondary education and in university, perhaps because it is viewed as the most efficient way of imparting large quantities of information. In this comment, research and theory in psychology are used to argue the case that the development of critical and constructive thinking skills necessarily involves the cultivation of dialectic, flexible attitudes toward thinking and teaching in context. Acquaintance with the details of fact is always reckoned, along with their reduction to a system, as an indispensable mark of mental greatness.
... When we ask them to choose, after they undergo such a process, they rarely choose their own ideas. Moreover, as Warfield (1995) has shown, we have mathematical measures of their agreement/disagreement. For example, if we give two votes to each person and everyone chooses his/her own ideas, their 'Spreadthink' will be 100%; i.e., their ideas would literally spread over the whole space of ideas. ...
The paper exemplifies why the capacity of a community of stakeholders to implement a plan of action effectively depends strongly on the true engagement of the stakeholders in designing it and that disregarding their participation is not only unethical, but also any plans made are bound to fail (Law of Requisite Action). As a layman's introduction to the science of structured dialogic design, the author uses a helicopter view of the organisation of an interactive workshop to highlight limitations of present-day implementations of dialogues and introduces the reader to the concepts of Spreadthink, Groupthink, erroneous priorities, laws and axioms of the science.
... This could mean that the subject under discussion was indeed complex and required dialogue to unravel its complexity with a view to considering ways of addressing the challenges as observed/understood. The extent that individuals in a group do not agree on what are the most important sub-issues, and in general not have a majority view on the merits of any of the many sub-issues is a quantifiable psychosocial phenomenon called Spreadthink ( Warfield, 1995 ), and in the case of our project it is equal to 63%. ...
This article proposes the importance of admitting into the repertoire of Problem Structuring Methods for (Community) Operational Research, the methodology called Structured Dialogical Design (SDD). Problem Structuring Methods are described in the literature as facilitating transparent and participative ways of formulating and systemically modelling problems with a view to participants’ co-defining alternative futures. We reflect upon the contribution of SDD as lying in its appreciation of “third phase science” and discuss links to other deliberative processes. We indicate why SDD can be classed as “problem structuring” despite the near absence of publicisation in the Operational Research (OR) literature to date. We discuss distinct contributions that the SDD offers to the OR world and indicate how it strengthens and extends Community OR, contributes to Critical Systems Thinking in OR, and offers new mathematical approaches that the Community OR practitioners may wish to consider using. By way of illustration, we showcase the “European Initiative” as an aspect of a large-scale project across five geographical regions funded by the United Nations Democracy Fund, in conjunction with the Future Worlds Center (2016-2018). It engaged as stakeholders five cohorts of youth pioneers concerned with formulating options for re-inventing democracy in the digital age.
... The complexity index defined as SCI = DK(N -7)/R(R -1) The Spreadthink defined: ST = (V -5)/(N -5) 9 100 (Warfield 1995; modifications were made by the last author of this paper) ...
This paper summarizes results of a co-laboratory that took place 33months after the negative outcome of the referendum on
the UN’s proposal for the solution of the Cyprus problem, and which was a follow-up (3 months later) of a previous co-laboratory.
The earlier co-laboratory explored factors contributing to the increasing gap between the two conflicting communities. The
co-laboratory reported here engaged relevant stakeholders (peace pioneers, academics, business people, activists and others
representing the Turkish and Greek speaking communities of Cyprus) to come up with options aiming to enhance the social dialogue
between the two communities. The Structured Dialogic Design Process was used to structure27 proposed options and develop
an influence map. The deep drivers, i.e., most influential factors, determined decisions taken by the participating peace
pioneers regarding their future interventions. The results are also discussed within the framework of current (analysis reflects
the political situation during the period reported here) political developments.
... 2007, 2008) and a group in Australia focusing on Democracy and The Enlightenment run by the same KMT with co-laboratories also applying a combination of synchronous and asynchronous events the number of factors was 64, 82 and 49, respectively. From 81 applications during the decade of 1980, the average number of observations needed to adequately describe a complex problem is 64 (Warfield 1995). The increased number of factors in the context of this peace process revival co-laboratory can be attributed to two factors. ...
This paper reports the results of the first of a series of co-laboratories organized by Cypriot peace pioneers 30months after
the negative outcome of the referendum concerning UN General Secretary’s plan for reunification of the island. The purpose
of this co-laboratory was to support a diverse group of disengaged and disappointed peace pioneers and activists representing
Turkish and Greek communities of Cyprus develop a shared understanding of factors contributing to the perceived widening of
the gap between the two divided communities in Cyprus. The co-laboratory was organized using the structured dialogic design
process (SDDP) approach within the context of a rich web-based communication environment. The root causes contributing to
the widening of the gap are discussed and are also compared with those identified during a similar co-laboratory employing
the Interactive Management methodology 12years earlier.
... Broome and Fulbright also noted that many scholars have traditionally downplayed the importance of methodology in group problem-solving. However, as noted by Warfield (1976Warfield ( , 1995Warfield ( , 2004, there are a host of human cognitive and behavioral limitations that can be ameliorated through methodology, and the development of methodologies that support group problem-solving is very important for the future of PASSE. ...
The design of systems to support sustainable wellbeing is contingent upon lifespan education of Homo sapiens and ongoing efforts to cultivate individual and collective intelligence. The Postdigital Applied Systems Science Education (PASSE) framework presented in this paper highlights the need for greater investment in educational infrastructures that support the development of collective intelligence, teamwork, and system design skills. We propose that the implementation of PASSE involves group- and project-based work focused on developing (1) an understanding of systems, (2) an understanding of group dynamics relevant to the management and design of systems, and (3) skill in the application of applied systems science methods that can be used by groups in the management and redesign of systems. To showcase curricular and pedagogical challenges and opportunities, we describe key features of our current delivery of PASSE along with future plans and prospects. Aligned with postdigital perspectives and innovations at the nexus of biology, information, and society, we highlight the potential for ongoing redesign of educational infrastructures and technologies that enhance societal teamwork and system design capabilities that allow us to address increasingly complex societal challenges.
... Since collective intelligence is usually defined as "the ability of a group to solve more problems than its individual members" (Heylighen, 1999), and because we lack a way to exploit the total intelligence of a group of individuals, we can deduce that there are certain obstacles that make it hard for members of a team to coordinate, align and/or process their thoughts. Group deliberations, for example, usually suffer from certain pathologies such as Groupthink (Whyte, 1952), Spreadthink (Warfield, 1995) and Clanthink (Warfield & Teigen, 1993). Other barriers include individual cognitive limitations and the lack of functional connections and communication among collaborators. ...
This chapter frames one of the greatest challenges of our time: the inven-tion of methods and technologies that harness the collective intelligence and wis-dom of thousands of stakeholders working together on a complex societal systemic problem. The worldwide failures of democracy to respond to global challenges, especially in the domain of governance, call for such massive but still authentic and democratic participatory systems. The authors assert that the need to reinvent democracy is urgent and that it can be done using co-laboratories of democracy. It concludes with a presentation of key findings of co-laboratories that aim to reinvent democracy using structured dialogic design methodology applied in small group settings and an introduction into the challenges of scaling up this process to engage thousands.
... From this systems theoretic starting point, the following section focuses on how systems theory can be used to inform problem formulation. Any two different perspectives or models about a system will reveal truths about that systems are neither entirely independent nor entirely compatible Law of requisite hierarchy (Aulin 1982; Aulin-Ahmavaara 1979; Klir 1991) The weaker in average are the regulatory abilities and the larger the uncertainties of available regulators, the more hierarchy is needed in the organization of regulation and control to attain the same result, if possible at all Law of requisite parsimony (Miller 1956; Simon 1974; Warfield 1995) Human short-term brain activity (memory) is incapable of dealing or recalling more than seven plus or minus two items Law of requisite saliency (Boulding 1966; Hester and Adams 2014; Warfield 1999) The factors that will be considered in a system design are seldom of equal importance. Instead, there is an underlying logic awaiting discovery in each system design that will reveal the saliency of these factors Law of requisite variety (Ashby 1956; Clemson 1984; Flood and Carson 1993) The control achieved by a given regulatory sub-system over a given system is limited by: ...
This chapter articulates a set of systems theory-based pathologies that act to limit performance of complex systems. In response to the common mantra that problem formulation is the most important activity in successfully dealing with complex system problems, this research elaborates on the utility of systems theory as the basis for problem formulation through the discovery of system pathologies. Pathologies are taken as circumstances that act to limit system performance or lessen system viability (continued existence) and as such they reduce the likelihood of a system meeting performance expectations. As an extension of contemporary developments in systems theory, this chapter is focused on three primary objectives. First, systems theory is examined to generate a comprehensive set of 45 principles, laws and concepts that explain system behavior and performance. Second, a set of systems theory-based pathologies that can be explained as deviation in application of systems theory (i.e., lack of use or violation) are articulated. Third, the chapter discusses implications of the developed pathologies for practitioners faced with the task of formulating complex system problems. The chapter concludes with proposed future research.
... Spreadthink is a measure of disagreement among the participants ( Warfield, 1995 ), and it ranged from 32 to 59 (46.3 ± 8.4) with relatively small deviations. This reflects the fact that the participants invested enough time in the dialogues to converge to a satisfactory amount of agreement. ...
This paper reports on a Community Operational Research (Community OR) project consisting of ten applications of a problem structuring method (PSM) with the Local Government Authorities of Cyprus. The PSM, Structured Democratic Dialogue Process (SDDP), is a systemic methodology that sits somewhere between Soft OR and traditional OR methods. It uses natural language constructs to support stakeholders explore similarity and influence relations between their distinct observations, and directed graphs to illustrate and communicate the consensus results. Matrix operations that take place behind the scenes make it possible for people from all walks of life to deal with complex societal problems without needing to master systems science. The application of the SDDP methodology in the case of the Local Government Authorities of Cyprus created the trust and the momentum necessary to achieve large-scale consensus and facilitate envisioned societal reforms. SDDP may have value for Community OR more broadly because of its emphasis on meaningful stakeholder and community participation.
This paper describes a strategy for evolving a whole systems modeling capability, a key enabler of whole systems architecting and engineering. The strategy responds to a presumed need for ldquo100,000 exemplars, world-wide, by 2015, performing whole systems modeling at ten-fold better productivity and innovation than the norm today.rdquo A strategy for evolving to his capability was formulated and evaluated by fifteen senior systems engineering practitioners. They identified impediments to serving the need, nominated opportunities and resources for coping with the impediments, then estimated the likelihood that the foreseen opportunities and resources would be sufficient. Additionally, the group reflected on the possible errors in their findings. A more comprehensive engagement to validate the intent then refine the strategy is recommended.
The assessment of the level of experts in group-decision analysis forms an important research topic. This article proposes a factor score method (FAM) for obtaining a ranking of the assessment levels of experts in group-decision analysis. The proposed FAM can be used to obtain a ranking of the assessment levels of experts from difference preference relations, where fuzzy preference relations, utility function, preference ordering of the alternatives, multiplicative preference relations and linguistic preference relations, if any, are transformed into fuzzy preference relations through transformation technique proposed. Theorems and algorithm related to the transformation technique are developed. A numerical example is examined to illustrate the applications of the FAM and its advantages.
It is an important new research topic to discuss the problem of ranking based on interval order number. In this paper, an analytic method is proposed to solve the problem for ranking based on preference information of interval order number in decision making. Firstly, some concepts and characters of interval order number are introduced. Then, based on introducing the conceptions of dominance and possibility, a method of ranking in possibility based on preference information of interval order number is given. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed analysis method.
In the group decision making, different expert often gives difference preference information for the same multi-objective decision making question. In this paper, an analytic method is proposed to solve the problem for ranking of experts based on difference preference information. First, several concept and characters of utility values, preference ordering of alternatives, reciprocal judgement matrices and complementary judgement matrices are introduced. Then, through defining transforming formula between difference preference information, translates the three types preference information (utility values, preference ordering of alternatives and complementary judgement matrices) into the forms of reciprocal judgement matrices. Then the weighted geometric mean priority method of group reciprocal judgement matrices is utilized to order alternatives. Finally, the validity of this method is verified by an example.
This Chapter examines the concept of Dialogue within the context of our emergent understanding of its meaning and use within organizations and groups. Dialogue plays a
critical role in the emancipatory systems design of the CogniScope™ System. From its Greek origins, dialogue has meant a “flow of meaning”, and in applied use further differentiated with this
chapter as “deliberative dialogue”, “generative dialogue”, and “focused and open dialogue”. Current researchers share a framework
of inquiry that invites the investigation of assumptions, safety of expression, and active listening. They describe dialogue
as free- flowing natural language that is self-organizing and inclusive. However, when dialogue has been used in emancipatory
systems design activities, limitations and challenges have been discovered in its application. Unshakeable human burdens must
be lifted during dialogue in the form of limits of human cognition, group pathologies, and unequal power relations. Successful
strategies for overcoming these burdens are provided based on documented use with the CogniScope™ System approach which, as been extensively tested in more than 200 applications. The authors conclude that, in the process
of emancipatory systems design, dialogue must play a substantively deeper role than other concepts of dialogue to lift the
human burdens of engagement.
The activity of designing and developing large, complex, discrete, physical, and engineered products faces the challenges in the physical product system, the organization of people, and the larger systems in which the product resides-the natural and societal systems. This thesis defines system interactions as the interactions amongst design variables within the physical product. Knowing system interactions early in the product development process is critical for project management, design concept selection, and system architecture decisions. However, existing methods that address the system interactions issues, such as the Design Structure Matrix (DSM), are good analysis tools, but cannot be used during conceptual synthesis when the most important decisions about the system designs are made. System level knowledge is defined as the knowledge concerning system interactions. System level knowledge is organizational knowledge that resides in the collective minds of members in the organization. System level knowledge is critical to the success of the design of large systems, yet is often missing due to its empirical nature. A knowledge management framework was proposed in this thesis and tested in industry cases from Ford and CVC. This thesis developed a method to predict and analyze system interactions at early phase of the design process. The method transforms an Axiomatic Design's Design Matrix (DM) into a DSM based on solving systems of linear equations using substitution. Since a DM is more easily constructed during early design phases, we can use this method to obtain a DSM during concept design. Consequently, the advantages of the DSM system analysis tools and methods can be applied to make better decisions on system design, system architecture, and project management. The method was tested using two industry cases at CVC and Johnson and Johnson Ortho-clinical Diagnostics. Both case studies showed that the method was effective in real engineering projects. Further observations in the case studies also revealed that a DSM could also be easily converted back into a DM. The interchangeability between DSM and DM allows engineering organizations to predict system interactions early on in a project, while capturing and managing system level knowledge throughout the product lifecycle. Thesis (Ph. D.)--Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, 2002. Includes bibliographical references (p. 285-293).
With respect to numerical decision matrix preference information expert group judgment consensus problem, a judgment analysis method is proposed in this paper. first, introduces definitions and related natures, then introduces the concept of OWA operator, using the majority experts advice consensus principle, gives the inconsistency improvement method of expert group judgment, finally a numerical example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed approach.
An expert weights determination method based on interval numbers group decision matrices is proposed and realized by utilizing the adaptive iterative algorithm for the multi-attribute group decision-making problem that the interval group decision-making matrix is the perference information of experts. Firstly, the concept of interval numbers and group decision matrices of experts is introduced. Then, the expert integrated weights using weighted geometric coefficients are calculated. Meanwhile the differences between each individual expert decision matrix and group expert decision matrix are given to determine the objective expert weights. In the end, the stable results of objective expert weights and integrated expert weights are achieved after several iterations. The feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method are approved by an instance.
On a definition of Consensus and Consensus Formation, this paper reviews the consensus degree algorithm, and indicates the shortcomings of existing researches. Model proposed by Patrik Eklund et.al. is then improved to calculate Consensus Degree in the context of common goals & similar fundamental interests among subjects through aggregating all participators' appraisal of alternatives using arithmetic average operator and a typical example of which is provided finally.
The ‘LTI Set’, consisting of 20 Laws of Complexity, a Taxonomy of the Laws of Complexity, and five Indexes of Complexity, is proposed as the core of a developing science of complexity that is applicable to resolving complexity in organizations. The LTI Set links to these included topics: Alternative Science-Free Organizational Practices; Educational Practices Appropriate to Complexity; Quality Control of Science; Applications of the Science of Complexity in Organizations; Enabling Conditions for Effective Organizational Practice. A critical condition for significant advances in resolving complexity is that the organization recognize the strong, even dominant, behavioral aspects of complexity, as reflected in the Laws; and take account of these in redefining the main role of top management. That role is to set up and administer a responsive corporate infrastructure to meet the demands of complexity, along the lines set forth here. Further advances in behavior can be made through new educational programs that reflect older scientific values applied to the challenges of today, in contrast to reliance on unwarranted assumptions that undermine organizations. Appropriately remodeled to reflect the relentless demands of complexity, the university can become a model for other institutions in society. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
With respect to the consistency problem of expert group's judgments based on the preference information on the decision matrices in form of interval numbers, an analytic method is proposed. The concept of interval number and the method to normalize the decision matrix are introduced. Then, defining the distance between two interval numbers and decision function of consistency, an analytic method is given to the consistency of expert group's judgment including each and all elements, alternatives and indices. Meanwhile, a discrimination approach is proposed for the consistency of expert group's judgment based on the preference information on decision matrices in form of interval numbers, with a readjusting way provided if there is no consensus on the judgment. A numerical example is given to illustrate the validity of the analysis method proposed.
An analytic method is proposed to solve the problem of group experts' judgment consistency based on the preference information about multiplicative judgment matrices. First, several concepts of the multiplicative judgment matrix and its compatibility and consistency are introduced. Then, a judgment approach to the consensus of group experts' judgment and the improving approach to the non-consensus of group experts' judgment are also provided based on definitions of the consensus level of the preference of each alternative and the consensus index of group experts' judgment. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the use of the proposed method.
An analytic method is proposed for the consistence problem of expert group's judgments based on linguistic judgment matrices. Concepts of the linguistic judgment matrix, educed matrix and compatibility are introduced. A linguistic judgment matrix is shown to be complete consistent or weak consistent if and only if the corresponding educed matrix is complete or weak consistent. Then, a judgment approach to the consistency of expert group's judgment and an improving approach to the non-consistency of expert group's judgment are proposed based on definitions of the consistency level of each alternative and the consensus index of expert group's judgment. Finally, a numerical example shows the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Systems theory and design thinking both share a common orientation to the desired outcomes of complex problems, which is to effect highly-leveraged, well-reasoned, and preferred changes in situations of concern. Systems thinking (resulting from its theoretical bias) promotes the understanding of complex problem situations independently of solutions, and demonstrates an analytical bias. Design disciplines demonstrate an action-oriented or generative bias toward creative solutions, but design often ignores deep understanding as irrelevant to future-oriented change. While many practitioners believe there to be compatibility between design and systems theory, the literature shows very few examples of their resolution in theoretical explanation or first principles. This work presents a reasoned attempt to reconcile the shared essential principles common to both fundamental systems theories and design theories, based on meta-analyses and a synthesis of shared principles. An argument developed on current and historical scholarly perspectives is illuminated by relevant complex system cases demonstrating the shared principles. While primarily oriented to complex social systems, the shared systemic design principles apply to all complex design outcomes, product and service systems, information systems, and social organizational systems.
A survey of INCOSE Fellows revealed near-unanimous agreement that system engineering competency assessment must be improved. Based on the principle that prudent selection authorities first establish selection criteria the Fellows committee authorized a volunteer project to devise a selection guide for choosing among competency assessment instruments and/or highlighting improvement opportunities in current ones. This paper presents project results, notably, recommended criteria and method that will help choose an appropriate candidate competency instrument and several recommended fallibility tests that other interested parties are encouraged to perform in order to make this selection guide even more fit for purpose.
With respect to the problem of assessing level of experts based on the linguistic assessment matrices inform of preference information, an analytic method is proposed to define the linguistic assessment matrices with their natures revealed. Then, by defining the deviation distance matrices between individual and grouped experts' assessment decision matrices and positive/negative ideal points of alternative set, an analytic method is given to assessment level of experts based on TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution). A numerical example is given to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed approach which will results in more reliable and credible decision-making and can be taken as an alternative way to assess expert level.
A fundamental thinking skill is the ability to see the structure of thought. Awareness of the structure of thought begins with an intuitive description of the elements and relations that constitute a decision-making process and a description of the relationship between the structure and function of thought. Regardless of how one judges the quality of everyday decisions in light of the goals being pursued, it is useful, as a first step, to construct a structural map of everyday decision-making processes. This allows for objective analysis of everyday decisions and it enhances structural awareness in those who map the thinking process and in those who read the maps. The same applies to scientific thinking. Scientists advocate a particular position in the academic field and explicit mapping of their arguments enhances structural awareness, critical comparison and evaluation, and communication in the field. Overall, the mapping of decision making is a worthwhile goal, a skill that is becoming increasingly prominent and even necessary as part of expert decision making in many fields of applied science. This chapter presents a case for the cultivation of graphicacy skills in this context. We describe four thought mapping techniques that offer considerable power and potential to elucidate and enhance thinking and decision making abilities. We suggest that technological advances may allow us to merge various different though mapping techniques and further enhance an interdependent set of graphicacy skills that may help to support decision making and adaptive action in context.
By establishing the staffing model of environmental supervision on the expressway, the paper studies the staffing of the environmental supervision. Adopting the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) to construct the assessment index system on the difficulty coefficient and based on the fuzzy attribute hierarchical model to construct the expert judgment matrix, then using the group consistency to guarantee the consistency opinions of the experts and combined with optimization theory to determine the index weight, the difficulty coefficient of environmental supervision is calculated. At last an example is cited to verify that this method can make a reasonable staffing on the environmental supervision.
It is an important research subject to carry on the classification to the level of judgment experts or experts' judgments in the group decision and analysis. With respect to the problem of the level of experts' judgment to the preference information of numerical decision matrix in the group decision making, an analytic method is proposed Firstly, the relevant characters of numerical decision matrix and group consistency are analyzed. Then, based on defining the educe matrix of numerical decision matrix are given by each expert, a taxis approach to judgment experts' level are given. Meanwhile, based on defining the fuzzy relation matrix between the two experts, classified approaches to judgment experts' level are given. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the efficacy and rationality of arithmetic.
Although writers frequently suggestfuture directionsfor small group research, it is not clear to what extent these suggestions arise from participant concerns rather than researcher interests. Not always do the concerns of scholars coincide with the needs of the user. This article presents a participant-generated agendafor small group research that is constructed from a structural analysis of influence maps developed by seven groups overa 6-yearperiod. Each of these groups was engaged in the generation, structuring, and interpretation of difficulties related to group work. A multistage influence model of barriers to group problem solving is developedfrom the group products, and suggestions are made forfuture research directions based on this modeL Thefollowing agenda is proposed: (a) we must examine more carefully the role of contextual influences in group work (b) we need to provide stronger guidance on methodologies for group work, (c) we must find ways to fully integrate discussions of culture with group process, (d) we should view climate and communication as primary conduits of group interaction, (e) we need to conduct more research on how attitudes are influenced by group factors, and (f) we need to broaden our view of the role of process experts.