No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Crime behaviors and distance travelled in homicides and rapes
Abstract
We explored (1) distances between home and offence in homicides and rapes; (2) whether these distances differed from each other; and (3) whether offence features were associated with distances. The sample consisted of solved homicides (N = 40) and rapes (N = 37) from Finland with co-ordinates for offence and offender home locations and information on crime features. Empirical models of incident density as a function of distance were estimated using CrimeStat III (Levine, 2004). Most of the distances were short displaying distance decay. Homicide median distance was 0.85km (Inter Quartile Range (IQR) = 0.13–7.69km) and rape median distance 2.44km (IQR = 0.83–6.96km) from perpetrators' home location. These distances differed significantly (Mann-Whitney U = 543.0, p < 0.045). It was possible to identify crime features that were correlated with distances in both offence types. Spatial Behaviour Indices combining crime feature information correlated rs = 0.77 with distance in homicides and rs = 0.72 in rapes. Identifying theoretical constructs for understanding links between different crime features instead of looking at them in isolation is important. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... The reported median distance to homicides varies substantially-0.7 km (Andresen et al., 2013), 1.1 km (E. R. Groff & McEwen, 2006), less than 1 km (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007), 1.8 miles (Pizarro et al., 2007), 2.3 km (Chopin et al., 2019), 3.8 km (Ackerman & Rossmo, 2014) and 3.9 km (Häkkänen et al., 2007). Meanwhile, Sea and Beauregard's (2017) study, which analysed the places where the offender disposed of the body, found that 29.6% of the offenders chose a location less than 10 km from their home. ...
... Although there are many international studies about this topic, social and geographical differences between countries complicate the extrapolation of results (Canter, Hammond, Youngs, & Juszczak, 2013;Santtila et al., 2007;Song, Frank, Brantingham, & LeBeau, 2012;Warren et al., 1998). This study aims to understanding the geographical behaviour of offenders in Spain through the analysis of the distances they travel to commit the homicide. ...
... The Euclidean distance has been used by most crime studies (e.g., Kent et al., 2006;Pizarro et al., 2007;Santtila, et al., 2007), though other options like Manhattan distance, street network or transport network are preferred by some authors (see Tejeiro & Gallardo [2016], for a review). It is important to note that several reviews have found that using one or other distance does not significantly affect the results (Chainey et al., 2001;Groff & McEwen 2006;Kent et al., 2006;Rossmo et al., 2004). ...
In this study, the displacement of 687 murderers in Spain (2010–2012) is analysed. The Euclidean distance between the offender's residence and the furthest scene related to the event has been calculated. The analyses showed that the murderers registered a displacement of 0.5 km, with 255 cases of non‐traveller homicide (37.1%). The bivariate analysis found that men, young and foreign, with a criminal record and unrelated to the victim, registered a large distance, as well as multi‐offender homicides and were related to criminal activities. Traveller homicide registered a displacement of 4.3 km, with adults unrelated to the victim travelling the farthest. Multi‐offender and crime‐related homicides continued to show the largest distance. Multivariate analyses showed that if the offender is foreign, has no previous relationship with the victim and there are several offenders involved, the distance will be larger. When only traveller homicides were analysed, only the type of relationship showed significant differences.
... There is overwhelming empirical evidence for the distance decay hypothesis, i.e. the hypothesis that the frequency of crime monotonically decreases with the distance between the offender's home and the crime location (Hammond and Youngs 2011; Santtila et al. 2007;Canter and Hammond 2006;Wiles and Costello 2000;Levine and Lee 2013;Bernasco et al. 2013;Gill et al. 2019;Rossmo 2000). Distance decay is usually explained by the principle of least effort: The effort an offender must spend on moving to a target is a monotonically increasing function of distance. ...
... Presenting histograms constructed from equally sized bins (distance classes) prevents this potential methodological artefact. Kernel density estimates have been used to smoothen the observed distribution of discrete frequencies (e.g., Laukkanen and Santtila 2006; Santtila et al. 2007Santtila et al. , 2008 but are saddled with the same issue: the estimates are biased downwards near zero, creating the false visual impression of a buffer zone. Future studies aiming for testing the buffer zone hypothesis, or other issues that require measurement of small distances, should be careful to prevent bias through rounding or smoothing operations on the distance measure. ...
... (Hammond and Youngs 2011;Santtila et al. 2007;Rengert et al. 1999; Bernasco et al. 2013 Bernasco et al. , 2017Townsley and Sidebottom 2010;Van Daele et al. 2012; Kent et al. 2006; Levine and Lee 2013;van Koppen et al. 2011; Block and Bernasco 2009; Canter and Gregory 1994; Canter and Larkin 1993). The list was drafted before specific formal inclusion criteria for studies were formulated. ...
Background
There is general agreement that the frequency of crime decreases with the distance from the offender’s home. By way of exception to this distance decay pattern, the buffer zone hypothesis states that offenders avoid offending very close to home. The purpose of the present study was to assess the validity of this hypothesis.
Methods
We conducted a systematic literature review of 4 bibliographic databases, in which we identified 108 studies on criminal distance decay, from which we selected 33 studies that include sufficient information to assess the existence of the buffer zone. Based on the full text of the research articles, we created a measure indicating whether the study supported or rejected the hypothesis and a measure summarizing the relative quality of the evidence as either weak-medium or strong.
Results
Of the 33 studies, 22 rejected the buffer zone hypothesis and 11 supported it. Across the whole sample, the methodological rigor of the studies was limited, but unrelated to whether the buffer zone hypothesis was supported or rejected.
Conclusions
Based on the available evidence the buffer zone hypothesis has gained limited support. We conclude by making recommendations on how to report data on the home-crime distance and suggesting a testing methodology for future research.
... While not a new phenomenon, LeBeau (1987b) notes that the literature on 'journey-to-rape' is much scarcer than it is for other crime types. The overarching conclusion that emerges from this small literature is that rapists have short crime trips, choosing to offend within only a few miles of their residence in most cases (e.g., Amir, 1971;Block, Galary, & Brice, 2007;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a, 2019bDavies & Dale, 1995;LeBeau, 1987b;Rossmo, Davies, & Patrick, 2003;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Warren et al., 1998). Although not as well documented, victims of rape have short crime trips as well, with most attacks occurring within close proximity of their residence (Amir, 1971;Block et al., 2007;Ceccato, 2014;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a). ...
... The environmental criminology literature on sexual crimes has emphasized the importance of timing in the decision-making process of sexual offenders in terms of how far they travel to hunt for their victims and where they choose to commit their crimes (e.g., Hewitt, Beauregard, & Davies, 2012;Santtila et al., 2007;Warren, Reboussin, & Hazelwood, 1995). Timing influences the movements of victims as well (see Ceccato et al., 2017), including how far they are able and willing to travel from one activity node to another, as opportunities to engage in their routine activitiesand thus their susceptibility to victimizationvary according to the time of the day, day of the week, and season of the year. ...
... Conversely, these individuals live farther apart when the crime is perpetrated by a compensatory rapist, and when the victim is engaged in either traveling/driving or prostitution at the time of the attack. These results contribute to the knowledge base of journey-to-crime distances and offender crime scene behaviors that Santtila et al. (2007) argue is still largely needed. ...
Purpose
To examine the variability in the ‘journey-to-crime’ and ‘journey-to-victimization’ in stranger rapes when disaggregated by offender motive. Using crime pattern theory as the theoretical framework, a series of pre-offense factors are used to explain these differences.
Methods
Two-step cluster analysis is first used to identify motive subtypes in 1009 stranger female rapes from a French police database. Kruskal-Wallis analyses then test for significant differences in distances traveled between the motivational groups. Finally, a series of negative binomial regressions are conducted to predict three distance measures: offender's residence to crime scene, victim's residence to crime scene, and victim's residence to offender's residence.
Results
The average distances traveled for both offenders and victims to the crime scene, and between their residences, varied by motive. Findings from the regression models indicated that while offender motive is important, environmental characteristics and victim activity at the time of the assault also predict the distances traveled for both individuals.
Conclusions
Determining the most likely motive of the offender, in conjunction with other offense characteristics that would be known at the time of investigation, has the potential to provide law enforcement officials with an indication of the unknown offender's geographic behavior in active rape cases.
... While not a new phenomenon, LeBeau (1987b) notes that the literature on 'journey-to-rape' is much scarcer than it is for other crime types. The overarching conclusion that emerges from this small literature is that rapists have short crime trips, choosing to offend within only a few miles of their residence in most cases (e.g., Amir, 1971;Block, Galary, & Brice, 2007;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a, 2019bDavies & Dale, 1995;LeBeau, 1987b;Rossmo, Davies, & Patrick, 2003;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Warren et al., 1998). Although not as well documented, victims of rape have short crime trips as well, with most attacks occurring within close proximity of their residence (Amir, 1971;Block et al., 2007;Ceccato, 2014;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a). ...
... The environmental criminology literature on sexual crimes has emphasized the importance of timing in the decision-making process of sexual offenders in terms of how far they travel to hunt for their victims and where they choose to commit their crimes (e.g., Hewitt, Beauregard, & Davies, 2012;Santtila et al., 2007;Warren, Reboussin, & Hazelwood, 1995). Timing influences the movements of victims as well (see Ceccato et al., 2017), including how far they are able and willing to travel from one activity node to another, as opportunities to engage in their routine activitiesand thus their susceptibility to victimizationvary according to the time of the day, day of the week, and season of the year. ...
... Conversely, these individuals live farther apart when the crime is perpetrated by a compensatory rapist, and when the victim is engaged in either traveling/driving or prostitution at the time of the attack. These results contribute to the knowledge base of journey-to-crime distances and offender crime scene behaviors that Santtila et al. (2007) argue is still largely needed. ...
Purpose: To examine the variability in the journey-to-crime and journey-to-victimization in stranger rapes when disaggregated by offender motive. Using crime pattern theory as the theoretical framework, a series of pre-offense factors are used to explain these differences.
Methods : Two-step cluster analysis is first used to identify motive subtypes in 1009 stranger female rapes from a French police database. Kruskal-Wallis analyses then test for significant differences in distances traveled between the motivational groups. Finally, a series of negative binomial regressions are conducted to predict three distance measures: offender's residence to crime scene, victim's residence to crime scene, and victim's residence to offender's residence.
Results: The average distances traveled for both offenders and victims to the crime scene, and between their residences, varied by motive. Findings from the regression models indicated that while offender motive is important, environmental characteristics and victim activity at the time of the assault also predict the distances traveled for both individuals.
Conclusions: Determining the most likely motive of the offender, in conjunction with other offense characteristics that would be known at the time of investigation, has the potential to provide law enforcement officials with an indication of the unknown offender 's geographic behavior in active rape cases.
... This is problematic for several reasons. First, offenders tend to operate in a relatively small geographical area (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007), and so, selecting random pairs of offences from anywhere in the police force area to act as unlinked pairs is not reflective of known patterns of offending, thus potentially biasing the results. Second, police analysts conduct case linkage at a local level (i.e. ...
... First, research consistently demonstrates that offenders tend to operate within a limited geographical area or comfort zone. For example, Santtila et al. (2007) found the median distance for committing a rape was 2.44 km from the offender's home; this fell to 0.85 km for homicide. Furthermore, as rational decision makers, offenders have a tendency to act on the first or closest opportunity to commit crime (the least effort principle) (Rossmo & Rombouts, 2008). ...
... Therefore, as active decision makers and risk assessors (Clarke & Cornish, 1986), robbers operating in the same area would be expected to identify the same or similar people to target, therefore making it difficult to distinguish between offenders. However, many offenders operate within a 'patch' (Deakin et al., 2007); and if these patches do not overlap, combined with the evidence that offenders do not travel far to commit their offences (Santtila et al., 2007), this might be a reason why an individual offenders' crimes might be easier to link using target selection at the more 'local' level. Furthermore, it is probable that there will be fewer active robbers operating in any single local area than force-wide, increasing the chances of distinguishing between different offence series by using target selection. ...
Case linkage uses crime scene behaviours to identify series of crimes committed by the same offender. This paper tests the underlying assumptions of case linkage (behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness) by comparing the behavioural similarity of linked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by the same offender) with the behavioural similarity of unlinked pairs of offences (i.e. two offences committed by different offenders). It is hypothesised that linked pairs will be more behaviourally similar than unlinked pairs thereby providing evidence for the two assumptions. The current research uses logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses to explore which behaviours can be used to reliably link personal robbery offences using a sample of 166 solved offences committed by 83 offenders. The method of generating unlinked pairs is then refined to reflect how the police work at a local level, and the success of predictive factors re‐tested. Both phases of the research provide evidence of behavioural consistency and behavioural distinctiveness with linked pairs displaying more similarity than unlinked pairs across a range of behavioural domains. Inter‐crime distance and target selection emerge as the most useful linkage factors with promising results also found for temporal proximity and control. No evidence was found to indicate that the property stolen is useful for linkage. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... While offenders choose targets, rather than distance (O'Leary, 2011: 162), this decision is conditional on the existence or proximity of capable guardians. The distance decay/buffer hypothesis enjoys much empirical support (Bernasco et al., 2013;Gill et al., 2019;Hammond & Youngs, 2011;Levine & Lee, 2013;Santtila et al., 2007;Rossmo, 2000;Vilalta, 2010). The hypothesis that the frequency of crime decreases monotonically as the offender is further from their place of residence is generally explained by the principle of least effort. ...
... In effect, results of our case study in Buenos Aires, Argentina, show a pattern of few crime incidents around police stations, increasing in frequency until a certain point when they begin to decrease once again. Contrary to that proposed by the criminal distance decay pattern (Bernasco et al., 2013;Gill et al., 2019;Hammond & Youngs, 2011;Levine & Lee, 2013;Santtila et al., 2007), an increase in crime incidents after the initial buffer of low crime incidence was observed (O'Leary, 2011;Rengert et al., 1999;Rossmo, 2000). Specifically, in this study we found that crime incidence increases progressively by 100-m intervals around each police station, until reaching its peak at the 500-600-m interval, following which, it begins to gradually decrease once again. ...
This paper discusses the empirical strategy used to test which approximation to journey-to-crime theory is more appropriate for modelling the crime deterrent effect of police stations. Using crime spatial analysis, this paper tests whether monotonic criminal distance decay from police stations or a buffer zone in the vicinity of police stations is the most appropriate way to model criminal behavior. The aim of the paper is to detect fixed patterns of spatial distribution of crime in relation to the location of police stations, independent of other variables. A new high-frequency daily dataset of the years 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019 with reported property crimes (robbery, theft, car robbery and theft) and personal crime (homicide) in the City of Buenos Aires, is used to model the paper's findings. The authors found empirical evidence of a non-random spatial concentration for all crimes. It was also found that the commission of crimes increases exponentially as the distance from the nearest police station increases, until reaching an interval of 500–600 m, at which point, it begins to descend once again. Evidence seems to show that police stations have a deterrent effect on crime.
... If we want to predict the likelihood of the proximity of an offender's residence with a single offence location, other parameters are needed. Other research of stranger rape offences has shown that crime characteristics do infl uence the likelihood that the offender lives close to the crime location (Kleuver et al., 1996;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007;Santtila et al., 2005;Wilson & Alison, 2005). ...
... The current study confi rms previous fi ndings that crime characteristics can be used to predict the probability of a single offender characteristic in stranger rape offences (Davies, et al., 1998;House, 1997;Kocsis, 2006;Kleuver et al., 1996;Santtila et al., 2005Santtila et al., , 2007Wilson and Alison, 2005). We succeeded developing of statistical models for the prediction of the probability of offender characteristics of stranger rapists meeting previously set criteria. ...
A sample of stranger rape offences (n = 271) registered in the Dutch Violence Crime Linkage Analysis System database in the Netherlands between 1997 and 2007 was studied with the objective of developing statistical models, which give an indication of the probability of basic offender characteristics. Observable crime characteristics concerning the modus operandi, interaction between the offender and the victim, violence, precautionary measures, and sexual behaviours were selected in the dataset. Offender characteristics were selected based on their usefulness for the police organisation in narrowing the scope of a criminal investigation. Spatial behaviour, criminal history, and living situation of the offender were selected. From the predictive models, four out of five achieved a correct rate of over 70%, and all models predicted better than the best guess method. The proposed models for distance and prior convictions for violence seem particularly promising. Both these models show an improvement of correctly predicted offender characteristics of more than 20 percentile points compared with that which could have been estimated based on the average in the total sample. The predictive value of the models needs to be tested further with ‘new offences’, which were not used to construct the model. In general, the current study supports the finding that crime characteristics can be used to get an indication of the probability of certain offender characteristics. Nevertheless, for an understanding of the relationship between the crime characteristics and offender characteristics, a further development of a theoretical framework is urgently necessary. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... Levine (2004) hypothesised that after the buffer zone, there will be an area on which committing a crime has highest probability and then, according to a distance decay function, after this zone the number of offence trips would decrease. According to Rossmo (2000), the existence of a buffer zone is considered as a product of an increased risk of being identified or being noticed by the police conducting investigation, if an offence is committed too close to the home of the offender. The concept of distance decay can be used to investigate the origin location of a serial offender based on offence location on a series (Lowe and Moryadas 1975). ...
... top points) have been proved to be effective as starting point for the search of the location of an offender residence (see Laukkanen and Santtila 2006). Santtila et al. (2007), for example, investigated whether distance travelled in homicides and rapes differed and found that spatial behaviour of offenders followed the same general pattern confirming the distance decay function is a valid model of offender spatial behaviour. However, according to Santtila et al., intra-country variation in offender travel patterns may be large because cities differ from each other in terms of details of their offence opportunity and street network pattern. ...
... This theory suggests that offenders are more likely to commit crimes closer to their residences and that the chance of committing a crime decreases as the offender moves away from familiar locations such as their daily routes and home [2] [3] [4]. Various studies support the distance/decay function for different crime types, including violent, property, and drug crimes [5] [6] [7]. ...
Drug overdose is a pressing public health concern in the United States, resulting in a significant number of fatalities each year. In this study, we employ the Journey to Crime (JTC) framework borrowed from the field of environmental criminology to examine the association between drug sales locations and overdose death locations. In this research, our objective is to elucidate the trajectory of overdose victims to overdose locations, aiming to enhance the distribution of overdose services and interventions. To the best of our knowledge, no previous studies have applied the JTC framework to investigate drug overdose deaths. By scrutinizing data obtained from the Hamilton County, OH Coroners, and the Cincinnati Police Department, we endeavor to explore the plausible correlation between overdose deaths and drug sales locations. Our findings underscore the necessity of implementing a comprehensive strategy to curtail overdose deaths. This strategy should encompass various facets, including targeted efforts to reduce the accessibility of illicit drugs, the enhancement of responses to overdose incidents through a collaborative multidisciplinary approach, and the availability of data to inform evidence-based strategies and facilitate outcome evaluation. By shedding light on the relationship between drug sales locations and overdose death locations through the utilization of the JTC framework, this study contributes valuable insights to the field of drug overdose prevention. It emphasizes the significance of adopting multifaceted approaches to address this public health crisis effectively. Ultimately, our research aims to inform the development of evidence-based interventions and policies that can mitigate the occurrence and impact of drug overdoses in our communities.
... The evidence base for distance decay is more robust. Support for distance decay has been found in studies on a wide range of crime types including burglary (Sarangi & Youngs, 2006) and rape (Santtila et al., 2007). There is some evidence robbers have an environmental range. ...
This chapter will outline profilingprofiling methods—for example, predictive profiling (of offender characteristics) and geographical profilinggeographical profiling—and how they could be used in robbery cases. Often used on serial cases (after crime linkagecrime linkage via forensics and/or behaviour—see Chapter 5 for more on Behavioural Crime Linkage), these methods can help the police to prioritise who or what to look for. Relevant theoretical frameworks (e.g. homologyhomology, distance decaydistance decay, domocentricitydomocentricity) will be explained along with a discussion of how these methods might be applied to robbery cases.
... Early criminological research on the journey-to-crime of sex offenders focused on the relationship between crime characteristics and the traveled distance. Santilla et al. (2007) studied hard-to-solve rape crimes and established a relationship between the amount of planning and length of the offender's journey-to-crime. This finding was quite similar to previous work by Warren et al. (1998) who found that offenders bringing items to their crime (i.e., a 'rape kit') tend to travel longer distances. ...
Solving sex crimes can be difficult. It is especially difficult to solve a sex offense case if there is no clear relationship between the victim and the offender. In those cases, one of the first questions that arises in the investigation is where to locate the offender. As many sex offenses that are committed by offenders with no clear link to the victim are outdoors, the geography of the crime might shed light on the case. Geographical offender profiling is an investigative method that can help police investigations to focus on areas where the offender most likely has an anchor point. A geographical offender profile is created by analyzing the geographical pattern of the crime(s) and the geographical behavior of the offender – the modus via – and his victim. This chapter provides an overview of the use of geography, and the geographical behavior of the victim and offender, to investigate sex offenses.
... Offences will occur when this space overlaps with an opportunity for criminal activity. This leads to patterns in which individuals commit crime in areas known to them [45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56]. To travel further beyond their awareness space to commit an offence would mean increased time and effort for the offender. ...
This paper uses graph theoretical measures to analyse the relationship between street network usage, as well as other street- and area-level factors, and dissident Republican violence in Belfast. A multi-level statistical model is used. Specifically, we employ an observation-level random-effects (OLRE) Poisson regression and use variables at the street and area levels. Street and area-level characteristics simultaneously influence where violent incidents occur. For every 10% change in the betweenness value of a street segment, the segment is expected to experience 1.32 times as many incidents. Police stations (IRR: 22.05), protestant churches (IRR: 6.19) and commercial premises (IRR: 1.44) on each street segment were also all found to significantly increase the expected number of attacks. At the small-area level, for every 10% change in the number of Catholic residents, the number of incidents is expected to be 4.45 times as many. The results indicate that along with other factors, the street network plays a role in shaping terrorist target selection. Streets that are more connected and more likely to be traversed will experience more incidents than those that are not. This has important practical implications for the policing of political violence in Northern Ireland generally and for shaping specific targeted interventions.
... Variations in distances for different target types reflected previous literature on traditional crimes (Fritzon, 2001;Hesseling, 1992;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007). The mean trip length for iconic targets was much longer than for symbolic or arbitrary targets. ...
... Further, it is respected that our results might be useful basic information for establishing regional policies and plans for the prevention of the sexual crime and enhanced public policing. (Brantingham and Brantingham, 1981 (LeBeau, 1987;LeBeau, 1992;Canter and Larkin, 1993;Warren et al., 1998;Santtila et al., 2003;Santtila et al., 2007;임준태, 2006;홍동숙 등, 2008;신상화, 2009;박충 기, 2009 ...
... For this reason, there is a wealth of literature concerning the analysis of distance covered (e.g. Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappalà, 2007) or the relevance of the predictions made on this basis (e.g. Snook, Zito, Bennell, Taylor, 2005). ...
The aim of the article was to study the distribution of distances travelled for a sample of the Polish population of perpetrators. The analysis covered burglaries and robberies in Warsaw. The results point to the key role of the analysis of the behaviour at the crime scene and its characteristics in the estimation of the journey to crime distance, which is partly consistent with the hypotheses put forward. The results show that perpetrators are ready to travel longer distances if the event is associated with a greater profit or increased risk. However, differences in the distribution of the distances travelled are not as significant as suggested by previous research. The reasons for this and potential consequences are discussed in this paper.
... Offences will occur when this awareness space overlaps with an opportunity for criminal activity. This leads to clear and consistent patterns in which individuals commit crime in areas that are known to them (such as White and Clyde, 1932;Harling 1972;Georges-Abeyie & Harries, 1980;Rhodes and Conley, 1991;Warren et al., 1998;Barker, 2000;Rossmo, 2000;Costello and Wiles, 2001;Lundrigan and Canter, 2001;Laukkanen and Santtila, 2006;Santtila, Laukkanen and Zappalà, 2007;Bernasco and Block, 2009). To travel further beyond their awareness space to commit an offence would mean increased time and effort for the offender, as well as an increased level of perceived risk due to their unfamiliarity with the area. ...
Research consistently supports the notion that terrorists are rational actors. However, there has been a tendency to focus on distal factors associated with involvement in terrorism, and there is a distinct lack of empirical research on aspects of attack commission at the individual level. Little has been done to identify proximal factors associated with attacks. This thesis uses multiple paradigms from environmental criminology, including journey-to-crime analyses, various spatial and temporal statistics, risk terrain modelling and discrete choice modelling, to examine the target selection for two of the current national security threats to the UK: lone-actor terrorism and Northern Ireland related terrorism. Collectively, the findings indicate that target selection is guided by an inherent logic, and that terrorists are rational in their spatial decision making. The first piece of analysis demonstrates that lone-actor terrorists behave in a similar way to group terrorists and urban criminals. Their residence-to-attack journeys display a classic distance decay pattern. The second empirical chapter shows how attacks by violent dissident Republicans in the period studied were spatially and temporally clustered. The following chapter identifies differences between risk factors for bombings and bomb hoaxes, and suggests that dissident Republicans may select less ideological targets for bombings relative to bomb hoaxes. The final empirical chapter demonstrates that the locations of attacks by the Provisional Irish Republican Army were influenced by characteristics of the target areas as well as the properties of their likely journey to the target. In the concluding chapter, a new framework for target selection is presented and assessed using illustrative examples of recent attacks in the U.K. Important insights are provided that could guide and improve the efficacy of preventative and disruptive measures.
... This 'awareness space' refers to offenders' acquaintance with the environment and its crime opportunities, which depends on their routine activity (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1984). Although offenders may seek out unacquainted spaces, most conduct their searches within the areas they become familiar with through daily activities (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007), some taking place in their own vicinity (Wiles & Costello, 2000). ...
The study assesses the perceived safety of visitors to recreational sites in Lagos metropolis Nigeria. The findings highlight that socio-demographic data on perceived safety are important to understand recreation behavior, use patterns and acceptance of urban recreation centers. For city planning and the management of recreational sites it is important to know that crime occurrence does not equally translate to perceived safety and should be studied separately. Here socioeconomic conditions such as seasonal increase of unemployment, weather conditions and the likelihood to meet other people and guardians are influencing the situation. Finally the paper highlights the influence of design, the location of main infrastructure and the influence of environmental attributes of the recreational center.
... It covers the place and the surroundings close to where the offender lives. Even for sexual crimes, most offenders assault their victims close to but not in their homes (Block et al., 2007;Kent, Leitner, & Curtis, 2006;Rossmo, 1998;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007;Warren et al., 1998). Although the existing literature has dealt extensively with the issue of offender mobility, the question of victim mobility during the day of their victimization has received little attention (Hodgkinson & Tilley, 2007;Pizarro, Corsaro, & Yu, 2007). ...
This study-based on a national data set (N = 1,447)-focuses on extrafamilial sexual assaults and their mobility. Spatial information about the offender's house, the victim's house, and the crime scene was combined in mobility crime triangles. The findings reveal that most of the assaults fall in the categories of total mobility (42.78%) and offender mobility (33.10%). Our results also show the validity of the distance decay function with over 50% of aggressions occurring within 3 km of the offender's house. The analysis did not reveal the existence of buffer zones, probably due to the acquaintance between some of the offenders and their victims. The evidence suggests that environmental risk factors are more significant than individual ones when it comes to explaining the variation among mobility patterns in sexual assaults. Offenders appear to adapt their mobility patterns and modus operandi according to the environmental constraints. Often, offenders choose their own or their victim's house as a safe environment for performed sexual assault.
... In crime pattern theory, this 'awareness space' refers to criminals' knowledge about the environment and its opportunities for crime, which depends on their routine activity (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1984). Although offenders may seek out unfamiliar places and uncharted areas, most conduct their searches within the areas they become familiar with through daily activities (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007;Wiles & Costello, 2000), some taking place in their own neighbourhood. Thus social disorganisation theory can contribute to understanding the links between risky facilities, such as a shopping centre, in a wider geographical context. ...
This chapter provides an introduction to the theme retail crime, the book scope, theoretical framework and key definitions used to structure this edited volume and support the reading of the chapters. Retail crime encompasses any criminal act against a store, a company or a conglomerate of companies, their properties as well as their employees and customers. The book also explores how the use of technology reduces crime but may also create new crime opportunities, some linked to organised criminal organisations far away from where crime occurs. This chapter also illustrates how this edited volume contributes to the current knowledge base by characterising the dynamics of retail crime from a multidisciplinary and international perspective with examples from Australia, Brazil, England, Israel, Italy, the UK and the US.
... In crime pattern theory, this 'awareness space' refers to criminals' knowledge about the environment and its opportunities for crime, which depends on their routine activity (Brantingham & Brantingham, 1984). Although offenders may seek out unfamiliar places and uncharted areas, most conduct their searches within the areas they become familiar with through daily activities (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007;Wiles & Costello, 2000), some taking place in their own neighbourhood. Thus social disorganisation theory can contribute to understanding the links between risky facilities, such as a shopping centre, in a wider geographical context. ...
This chapter summarises the main findings of this edited volume and discusses the practical challenges and new research frontiers in retail crime and its prevention. This final chapter is composed of four parts: a summary of the results, the cross-cutting common themes, the book limitations and a future research agenda linked to policy recommendations. The chapter first synthesises and critically reviews the key findings, identifying some of the most important lessons learnt by contributors coming from a variety of backgrounds and identifying the relevant challenges. Then, it outlines the future research in retail crime and provides a number of suggestions for policy recommendations that are linked to different issues of retail.
... Although offenders may seek out unfamiliar places and uncharted areas, most conduct their searches within the areas they become familiar with through daily activities (Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappalà, 2007;Wiles & Costello, 2000), some taking place in their own neighbourhood. Thus social disorganisation theory can contribute to understand the links between risky facilities, such as a shopping centre, in a wider geographical context. ...
The aim of this chapter is to understand the nature of crime in space and time in a shopping centre and provide suggestions for safety improvements drawing from principles of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). The study makes use of data registered by the security companies and three-dimensional visualisation using BIM (Building information modelling) to detect areas that run higher risk of crime using a shopping centre in Stockholm Sweden. Based on an extensive fieldwork inspection, the study assesses whether and how spatial and temporal concentrations of crime relate to particular features of the shopping environment. Finally, the chapter indicates the types of environments that are most in need of safety intervention.
... The individual, as a result of psychological and external stressors such as anger, negative moods, fury or irritation, would experience states of tension and physical activation and in turn, these emotional and psychological states would be externalized as physical and brutal attacks towards the victim [5][6][7][8][9]. Therefore, in expressive violence, the closer the victim and the offender are, the higher the level of expressiveness will be involved in the offence [5,[9][10][11][12][13]. Because of physical contact and direct contact with the victim are key elements of expressive violence [4,14,15] it has been considered that expressive violence is the most predominant type of violence observed in partner homicides. ...
Introduction: Although the important concert about partner homicides, there are no scientific studies in Spain. The main aim of this study is to analyze differences in Spanish partner homicides between aggressor's sex with a) crime perpetration: attempted or completed and b) criminal process: pre-crime, offence and post-crime behavior.
Method: We used Basa Data "Protocolo de Análisis del Crimen Violento en Homicidios Familiares", composed by firmed sentences of family homicides in Spain. Specifically, we analyzed a sample of 323 partner homicide firmed sentences, mostly men.
Results: The results show that attempted crimes are more associated with men, and completed homicides with
women. Regarding pre-crime behaviors, the existence of previous conflict and previous break up are more
associated with men. In criminal context, instrumental behaviors are more related with women while expressive
behaviors don't show relation with aggressor's sex; to strangle the victim is more associated with women. Finally, none of post-criminal behaviors show relation with aggressor's sex.
Discussion: The results regarding pre-crime and post-crime behaviors are consistent with precedents studies in
other countries, also the predominance of expressive behaviors in both, men and women. Concerning to crime
perpetration, it hasn't been found previous studies comparing it with offender's sex in partner homicides.
... However, crime-related homicide research suggests that firearm and nonfirearm homicides are often committed close to home. 9,39 We were also unable to ascertain gun ownership in these events-that is, whether safety measures for guns kept at home may have averted such events. Finally, other geospatial and policy factors may raise or lower the risk of firearm incidents, including the density of alcohol outlets and drug markets and local and state firearm legislation. ...
Objectives:
Relatively little is known about the context and location of firearm injury events. Using a prospective cohort of trauma patients, we describe and compare severe firearm injury events to other violent and non-violent injury mechanisms regarding incident location, proximity to home, time of day, spatial clustering and outcomes.
Methods:
This was a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort of injured children and adults with hypotension or Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score ≤ 8, injured by one of 4 primary injury mechanisms (firearm, stabbing, assault and MVC) who were transported by EMS to a Level I or II trauma center in 10 regions of the U.S. and Canada from January 1, 2010 through June 30, 2011. We used descriptive statistics and geospatial analyses to compare the injury groups, distance from home, outcomes and spatial clustering.
Results:
There were 2,079 persons available for analysis, including 506 (24.3%) firearm injuries, 297 (14.3%) stabbings, 339 (16.3%) assaults and 950 (45.7%) MVCs. Firearm injuries resulted in the highest proportion of serious injuries (66.3%), early critical resources (75.3%) and in-hospital mortality (53.5%). Injury events occurring within 1 mile of a patient's home included: 53.9% of stabbings, 49.2% of firearm events, 41.3% of assaults and 20.0% of MVCs; the non-MVC events frequently occurred at home. While there was geospatial clustering, 94.4% of firearm events occurred outside of geographic clusters.
Conclusions:
Severe firearm events tend to occur within the patient's own neighborhood, often at home and generally outside of specific geospatial clusters. Public health efforts should focus on the home in all types of neighborhoods to reduce firearm violence. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... Specifically, certain crime types (auto theft, street robbery, and residential burglary) yielded substantially more accurate results than other crime types (commercial robbery and larceny). In addition, findings from other research suggest that offenders of interpersonal crime are more likely to be marauders than offenders of property crime (Canter and Larkin, 1993;Kocsis and Irwin, 1997;Santtila et al., 2007). Given that GP is most likely to be accurate when applied to marauding offenders, it can be expected that GP will be more accurate when applied to interpersonal crimes than when applied to property crimes. ...
Geographic profiling (GP) is an investigative technique that involves predicting a serial offender’s home location (or some other anchor point) based on where he or she committed a crime. Although the use of GP in police investigations appears to be on the rise, little is known about the procedure and how it is used. To examine these issues, a survey was distributed internationally to police professionals who have contributed GP advice to police investigations. The survey consisted of questions designed to assess: (a) how geographic profiles are constructed, (b) the perceived usefulness and accuracy of GP, (c) whether core GP conditions are examined before profiles are constructed, and (d) the types of cases in which GP is used. The results suggest that geographic profiles are commonly used in operational settings for a wide range of crime types. This appears to be true even when GP conditions are violated. In addition, general perceptions of GP accuracy and usefulness appear to be high, but this is particularly true for respondents who use computerized GP systems (compared with spatial distribution strategies, such as centroids, or educated guesses). Computerized GP systems are also the most commonly used GP approach among our respondents, especially for those who have received formal training in GP. Although preliminary in nature, the results from this study help enhance understanding of how GP is used in police investigations around the world, and under what conditions. The survey also provides directions for future research.
... Empirical evidence for both consistency and distinctiveness has been found for spatial location of crimes (Markson, Woodhams, & Bond, 2010;Lundrigan, Czarnomski, & Wilson, 2010;Santilla, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007, & Tonkin, Grant, & Bond, 2008. Since location of target may be the most crucial decision an offender makes and is the decision that an offender has the most control over, it follows that this aspect of behavior will be more consistent than other, context-dependent behaviors (Bennell, & Jones, 2005;Harbers, Deslauriers-Varin, Beauregard, & Van Der Kemp, 2012). ...
Probability-based methods have been shown to be useful in crime linkage analysis (the determination of which crimes were committed by the same offender). However, little consensus exists as to the value of specifically tailoring these methods to individual jurisdictions. Considering regional differences in routine activities, incorporating local information into crime linkage analysis may improve the effectiveness of linkage strategies. Using simulation methods, this study addresses the impact of regional variation in factors affecting criminal opportunity on crime linkage tools.
... As cars are to be found on the majority of streets and driveways, the decision of when and where to steal a car should be almost completely within an offender's control. The results also support the notion that offenders operate in areas that they are familiar with, the intercrime and interdump distances being shorter for linked compared with unlinked pairs (Markson et al., 2010;Santtila et al., 2007). As Tonkin, Woodhams, et al. (2011) explained, these findings fit with several seminal theories of offender spatial behaviour, which suggest that offenders seek to minimise the efforts and risks involved in offending (e.g. by returning to the places that are familiar to them and by not travelling great distances to offend; e.g. ...
This study aimed to investigate the case linkage principles, behavioural consistency and distinctiveness, with a sample of serial car thieves. Target selection, acquisition, and disposal behaviours, as well as geographical and temporal behaviours, were examined. The effects of temporal proximity and offender expertise were also investigated as moderating factors of behavioural consistency. As in previous case linkage research, geographical and some target selection behaviours were able to predict whether crime pairs are linked or unlinked at a statistically significant level. Crucially, it was also found that temporal behaviours demonstrate a significant capability to predict linkage status, a variable which has never before been applied to the prediction of linkage in serial car theft. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that changing the operationalisation of the behavioural domains can affect the results obtained. No support was found for the moderation of behavioural consistency on the basis of temporal proximity or expertise. Overall, the results support previous case linkage studies, furthering their practical applicability within the criminal justice system. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
... Further, Santtila et al. (2007) and Rossmo et al. (2004) found sexual offenders that used vehicles and exhibited planning in their offences travelled farther than sexual offenders who didn't. Clearly the access to a vehicle enables an offender to cover greater distances and has thus been found to be positively correlated to distance travelled in German sexual murderer body disposal sites (Snook et al., 2005) and Dutch robbery crime locations (van Koppen & Jansen, 1998).Temporal aspects of an offence are also posited to relate to JTC distance(Ratcliffe, 2006), in which 'weekend' rapists in the UK travelled longer distances than 'work-week' offenders(Canter & Gregory, 1994), as did day-time as opposed to night-time rapists(Santtila et al., 2007).Mokros and Schinke (2006) offer a hypothetical explanation of disparate JTC distances based on temporal aspects by suggesting that offenders who work during the week may be more socially integrated into their surroundings and thus may feel the need to move either farther away from their home (typically on weekends) or to attack at night to avoid being identified by potential witnesses. ...
Fighting criminal activity represents a challenge for the security system. The Geographic Profile allows locating with a degree of belonging the most probable area where an aggressor can be found. However, a defined or standardized methodology is currently lacking. The geographic information system (GIS) is a powerful tool for analysis and decision-making since more than 80% of the information can be spatialized. For this reason, the present study defined a methodology that allows the construction of a Criminal Geographical Profile (CGP) through the use of a GIS. The construction of the PGC was spatially simulated, as a case study called “Mata Viejitas”. The results obtained indicated a decrease of 79.83% in the area of influence of the crime, with a monthly saving of USD $ 43,406.10. Additionally, an average reduction of almost 90% of the area of criminal influence in other simulated cases.
The purpose of this research is to further understanding of how environmental factors impact on the distance an offender travels from their home to their crime scene ‐ the so called ‘journey‐to‐crime’ (JTC.). Currently, Geographic Profilers rely on relatively generic JTC research to form inferences about the likely distance travelled by an offender, and may be missing the opportunity to make a more bespoke assessment which takes these factors into account. 1186 cases of female stranger sexual assault (Study 1) and 124 cases of stranger homicide (Study 2) were analysed. Euclidean measurement of distance was provided from the offender's recorded home to 3 crime site locations: (1) the initial contact with victim, (2) the assault/murder, and (3) the victim release/body disposal. Each crime site location was coded according to: (a) population density and (b) urban or rural. Initial analysis examined the median distance travelled from an offender's residence to the three different crime site locations. Significant findings for stranger sexual assaults indicated that the initial contact location was significantly further from an offender's residence compared to the sexual assault and victim release location. This was not replicated for stranger homicide offences. Both sexual assault and homicide cases revealed that the distance travelled to the ‘initial approach’ location did not differ according to population density, or whether the location was urban or rural. Regarding ‘sexual assault’ locations, offenders were found to travel significantly further from their home to attack their victim in low population density and rural areas. Results showed that both sexual assault and homicide offenders travelled significantly further from their home to the ‘victim release/body disposal’ site in low population density areas and rural areas. These findings have important, practical applications for investigations, allowing Geographic Profilers to provide more bespoke inferences about an offender's journey to crime.
Combatir la actividad criminal representa un desafió para el sistema de seguridad. El perfil geográfico permite ubicar, con un grado de pertenencia, la zona más probable donde se pueda encontrar un agresor. Sin embargo, actualmente se carece de una metodología definida o estandarizada. El sistema de información geográfica (SIG) es una poderosa herramienta para el análisis y la toma de decisiones, ya que más del 80% de la información puede ser espacializada. Por ello, el presente estudio definió una metodología que permite la construcción de un Perfil Geográfico Criminal (PGC) mediante el uso de un SIG. Se simuló espacialmente la construcción del PGC, tomando como caso de estudio el denominado ‘Mata Viejitas’. Los resultados obtenidos indicaron una disminución del 79,83% en el área de influencia del delito, con un ahorro mensual de USD $ 43.406,10. Adicionalmente, una reducción promedio de casi el 90% del área de influencia criminal en otros casos simulados.
Fighting criminal activity represents a challenge for the security system. The Geogra- phic Profile allows locating with a degree of belonging the most probable area where an aggressor can be found. However, a defined or standardized methodology is cu- rrently lacking. The geographic information system (GIS) is a powerful tool for analy- sis and decision-making since more than 80% of the information can be spatialized. For this reason, the present study defined a methodology that allows the construction of a Criminal Geographical Profile (CGP) through the use of a GIS. The construction of the PGC was spatially simulated, as a case study called “Mata Viejitas”. The results obtained indicated a decrease of 79.83% in the area of influence of the crime, with a monthly saving of USD $ 43,406.10. Additionally, an average reduction of almost 90% of the area of criminal influence in other simulated cases.
To date, limited systematic focus has been directed to examining factors that influence the spatial behaviour of missing people. Accordingly, this study examined whether demographic and behavioural factors were related to distance between missing and found locations in 16,454 archival cases of missing reports from two UK police forces. Findings from ordinal regressions showed that children were more likely to be found at further distances if they were deemed to be at high or medium risk of coming to harm but less likely to be located further away when victims of a violent attack. Adults were more likely to be found at further distances if planning behaviours were present (e.g. had taken their passport), but less likely to if they were above the age of 65 years or suffering from abuse. Findings indicate the role of age, planning and vulnerability on travel when missing. Implications for search strategies and directions for future research are considered.
Motiveless homicides are usually defined as homicides in which a victim is killed by an offender and a motive was not determined by the police investigation. Motiveless does not mean that the police do not know the motive for the homicide, but rather that no other motive could accurately and objectively explain the reason for why the homicide occurred. However, this is especially problematic for the police because failing to establish a homicide motive is considered an investigative shortcoming. Due to the limited research conducted to date on motiveless homicides and the significant challenges they pose to investigators, the current study examines the geographic mobility patterns involved in these homicides. Using a sample of 194 solved cases of motiveless homicide from France, the criminal mobility triangle approach was used to explore their geographic patterns. Moreover, correlates of the entire criminal event were included for an in-depth understanding of these cases. The findings revealed various mobility patterns involved in motiveless homicides, combined with some specific correlates of the criminal event. Implications of the findings are discussed in light of the investigation of these crimes.
Głównym celem artykułu jest przedstawienie podstaw profilowania geograficznego, jako metody mającej zastosowanie w analizach przestrzennych sporządzanych na potrzeby wykrywania sprawców przestępstw. Wychodząc z założenia, że rozmieszczenie przestępstw i zachowania sprawców wykazują pewne prawidłowości przestrzenne, wykorzystuje się podejście geograficzne w procesie wykrywania tych sprawców. W kolejnych częściach artykułu przedstawione zostały podstawy teoretyczno-metodologiczne profilowania geograficznego, uwarunkowania skuteczności prowadzenia analiz przestrzennych, zasady generowania geoprofili. Na podstawie analizowanej literatury przedstawiona została krytyka i ograniczenia stosowania profilowania geograficznego, ale także dowiedziona została efektywność tej metody jako techniki śledczej.
Comments on an article by T. W. Briggs and J. W. Pollard (see record 2020-26206-005). Briggs and Pollard make a convincing case for the advancement of computational modeling and simulation of mass violence for threat assessment and management. The purpose of this commentary is to look into the analogous study of terrorism to pinpoint recent areas of advancement. We narrow our focus to three core areas, two of which heavily overlap with core areas identified by Briggs and Pollard: (a) computational linguistic approaches, (b) spatial modeling, and (c) network based designs. Historically, the fields of both (a) threat assessment and management and (b) terrorism studies grew in silos. The aim here is for a much greater alignment in research agendas moving forward. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved)
The aim of this chapter is to understand the nature of crime in space and time in a shopping centre and provide suggestions for safety improvements drawing from principles of Crime Prevention Through Environmental Design (CPTED). The study makes use of data registered by the security companies and three-dimensional visualisation using BIM (Building information modelling) to detect areas that run higher risk of crime using a shopping centre in Stockholm Sweden. Based on an extensive fieldwork inspection, the study assesses whether and how spatial and temporal concentrations of crime relate to particular features of the shopping environment. Finally, the chapter indicates the types of environments that are most in need of safety intervention.
Law enforcement agencies recently have recognized the significance and impact that comes from a better understanding of the dynamics of crime in a geographical perspective. In particular, due to its complex nature, analyzing criminal homicide is often challenging when connecting multiple locations to persons involved in crimes in order to solve cases. The main purpose of this study is to provide an analytical framework to understand criminal homicide from a socio-geographical perspective using GIS. This chapter explores how social relationships between victims and offenders, and the spatial characteristic of a community, affect the geographical pattern of underlying locations in criminal homicides. We propose a conceptual model named Spatial Configurations of Homicide Crime (SCHC), which categorizes sequences of homicides from a geographical perspective. The spatial configurations of criminal homicides is defined by combinations of locations including: Offender’s residence (O), Victim’s residence (V), Murder location (M), and Disposal location of victim (D), all of which are expressed as a set of (O, V, M, D). The relationships between SCHC and (1) social relationships among victims and offenders, (2) the context of the crimes, and (3) the ethnic composition of people within a community, are analyzed with Multinomial Logit Models (MNL). Based on geospatial analysis using GIS, this chapter identifies the critical socio-geographic factors and reveals the structure of locational components in homicidal crimes. A case study with more than 300 homicide incidents in Hillsborough County, Florida from 1997 to 2007 demonstrates social relationships among victims and offenders in their geographical locations.
Purpose
– Beginning with the understanding that healthcare serial killers differ from traditional serial killers in terms of victim selection, risk and offender behavior, this paper attempts to reconceptualize how the motivations of healthcare serial killers are understood within the scope of care‐giving environments.
Design/methodology/approach
– Drawing on the current literature surrounding serial homicide and serial killers, the paper argues that healthcare serial killers, by virtue of their profession, have an advantage in committing homicides that are less likely to be detected.
Findings
– It is found that healthcare professionals work in an environment that is conducive to anti‐social behaviour like homicide. More specifically, recurring conditions within the work place (e.g. lack of a reporting system for problem employees, code of silence amongst employees) adds to the ease with which healthcare serial killers can evade capture.
Originality/value
– Research examining healthcare professionals who kill their patients is limited. The current paper provisionally adds to the current understanding of serial homicide. While offering various explanations as to why healthcare serial killers are difficult to detect, this paper also explores some potential solutions for the monitoring of healthcare professionals and protecting the vulnerable patients in their care.
In the absence of forensic evidence (such as DNA or fingerprints), offender behavior can be used to identify crimes that have been committed by the same person (referred to as behavioral case linkage). The current study presents the first empirical test of whether it is possible to link different types of crime using simple aspects of offender behavior. The discrimination accuracy of the kilometer distance between offense locations (the intercrime distance) and the number of days between offenses (temporal proximity) was examined across a range of crimes, including violent, sexual, and property-related offenses. Both the intercrime distance and temporal proximity were able to achieve statistically significant levels of discrimination accuracy that were comparable across and within crime types and categories. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed and recommendations made for future research.
This study examines whether a distance decay function calibrated for a particular crime type results in more accurate geographic profiles compared to default functions that are not calibrated for one specific crime type. Decay functions were calibrated for three different types of serial crime (residential burglary, theft, and auto theft) collected from the same geographic region (Glendale, AZ, USA). The two default functions used for comparison purposes (truncated negative exponential and negative exponential) came from CrimeStat (v. 3.1), a computerized geographic profiling system. The hypothesis that calibrated functions would possess more predictive power than default functions was not supported. Potential explanations for these findings are provided and implications are discussed.
The differences in crime scene actions in cases of stranger rape committed by convicted offenders were examined between 31 single-victim rapists and 35 serial rapists. Data were collected from police files, court verdicts, psychiatric evaluations, and criminal records. Findings indicate that the serial rapists were more criminally sophisticated than the single-victim rapists, during their first and second rapes. The single-victim rapists were significantly more likely to engage in the interpersonal involvement behavior of kissing the victim, and to engage in pre-assault alcohol use, than the serial rapists. There was, however, no significant difference in physically violent or sexual behaviors. To investigate the possibility of predicting rapist type, logistic regression analyses were performed. Results indicate that three behaviors in conjunction, kissed victim, controlled victim, and offender drank alcohol before the offense, predicted whether an unknown offender is a single-victim or serial rapist with a classification accuracy of 80.4%. The findings have implications for the classification of stranger rapists in offender profiling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Studies on geographical profiling have typically focused on crimes with physical crime sites. This study focused on crimes with no physical crimes sites (i.e. no physical contact occurred between the victim and the offender). A single offender made obscene phone calls to 86 children during the years 1999–2000 in the south of Sweden. The locations in which obscene phone calls were received were analysed in a geographical profiling system (Dragnet) to see whether it could provide a map that showed the most likely area the offender would reside in. The purpose of this study was to explore whether geographical software such as Dragnet can be used by investigators of crimes with no physical crime locations. The result showed that the offender in this case had his home close to the region assigned the highest probability of containing home or base, which indicates that Dragnet can provide maps that can narrow down the search areas for the police in cases without physical crime locations. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Using archival records from the New York Times and the Chicago Tribune, 1851–1899, the current project examines the post-offence characteristics of 19th-century American parricides. Post-offence behaviours of 100 parricide offenders were gathered. Results indicate that post-offence behaviours of parricide offenders can be thematically classified into those that reflect a continuity of violence, attempts to cover up the crime, and unusual behaviours. The implications of post-offence behaviours of parricide offenders in the context of law, mental illness, and criminological theory are discussed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Several studies employed different algorithms in order to investigate criminal's spatial behaviour and to identify mental models and cognitive strategies related to it. So far, a number of geographic profiling (GP) software have been implemented to analyse mobility and its relation to the way criminals are using spatial environment when committing a crime. Since crimes are usually perpetrated in the offender's high-awareness areas, those cognitive maps can be employed to create a map of the criminal's operating area to help investigators to circumscribe search areas. The aim of the present study was to verify accuracy of simple statistical analysis in predicting spatial mobility of a group of 30 non-criminal subjects. Results showed that statistics such as Mean Centre and Standard Distance were accurate in elaborating a GP for each subject according to the mobility area provided. Future analysis will be implemented using mobility information of criminal subjects and location-based software to verify whether there is a cognitive spatial strategy employed by them when planning and committing a crime.
Geographical profiling is an investigative methodology sometimes employed by the police to predict the residence of an unknown offender from the locations of his/her crimes. The validity of geographical profiling, however, has not been fully explored for certain crime types. This study, therefore, presents a preliminary test of the potential for geographical profiling with a sample of 145 serial vehicle thieves from the U.K. The behavioural assumptions underlying geographical profiling (distance decay and domocentricity) are tested and a simple practical test of profiling using the spatial mean is presented. There is evidence for distance decay but not domocentricity among the spatial behaviour of car thieves from the U.K. A degree of success was achieved when applying the spatial mean on a case-by-case basis. The level of success varied, however, and neither series length in days nor number of crimes could account for the variation. The findings question previously held assumptions regarding geographical profiling and have potential theoretical and practical implications for the study and investigation of vehicle theft in the U.K. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
According to the mate deprivation hypothesis of sexual coercion, males are more likely to use sexually coercive tactics if they are disadvantaged in gaining access to desirable mates. This hypothesis was tested in a sample of 156 young, heterosexual, mostly single men enrolled in a Canadian university. Differential access to mates was indexed by self-perceived mating success, self-reported sexual history, and relative earning potential. Sexual coercion was assessed using the Koss's sexual experiences survey. Results did not support the hypothesis: men who identified themselves as sexually coercive tended to have higher self-perceived mating success, had significantly more extensive sexual histories, and did not report lower relative earning potential. Coercive men reported a greater preference for partner variety and casual sex. Sexual strategy theory is used to propose two alternative models of sexual coercion.
A textbook on the fundamentals of spatial information and GIS. 17 chapters address; Information systems and geomatics. Spatial relatonships, location, networks. Objects, surfaces, data organisation, time and quality. Geometries for data, referencing systems, projections, line generalisation, fractals, dimensionality. Topology, graphs, areas, ordering. Tesselation, grids, quadtrees. Interpolation, polygon operations, data transformation, addressing. Spatial analysis, attributes, modelling, multiple representation. Information system design, one, two and three-dimensional objects, terrain modelling. Object modelling, data models, metadata. Data retrieval, algebra, relational and peano data structures. Algorithms, indexing, hypermedia, multimedia, spatial knowledge, fuzzy knowledge, artificial intelligence, expert systems, reasoning. Reading lists are provided for each chapter. -from Authors
A theoretical distinction between instrumental and expressive aggression was used in analyzing offender characteristics and their associations with crime scene actions in Finnish homicides. Twenty-one variables reflecting the offenders' criminal activity, previous relationships with intimates and victims, and general social and psychological adjustment were derived from files of single-offender/single-victim homicides occurring between 1980 and 1994 (n = 502). Additionally, three variables describing post-offense actions and police interview behavior were included. A multidimensional scaling procedure was used to investigate the interrelationships between the variables. A distinction between expressive and instrumental characteristics was observable in the empirical structure, which was divided into three subthemes of Instrumental, Expressive: Blood, and Expressive: Intimate. Associations between the characteristics with five previously identified subthemes of crime scene actions were computed. In addition, the subthemes of crime scene actions were related to post-offense actions and police interview behavior, with Expressive themes being associated with less denial as well as a greater likelihood of surrendering and confession. The practical usefulness for police investigations and theoretical implications of the results are discussed.
Preliminary to the development of a stimulus-mediating response model of aggressive drive, formal definitions are given of instrumental aggressive acts and aggressive drive-mediated behavior. In defining aggressive drive, a distinction is made between expressive aggression and hostile aggression which is illustrated in the difference between the desire to "hit" and the desire to "hurt." Hostile aggression is assumed to be a learned drive whose primary antecedents are past exposure to punishment and present threats to self-esteen. Several procedures for reducing aggression other than performance of an aggressive response are described and the function of diverse measures responsive to changes in expressive aggression, aggressive drive, and aggressive response strength, particularly when evaluating the consequences of an aggressive act, are analyzed. (2 p. ref.)
Crime occurrence is not the direct result of motivation, but is mediated by perceived opportunity. This, in turn, is influenced by the actual distribution of opportunities, urban form and mobility. It is argued that criminals are not random in their behaviour, so it should be possible to predict the spatial distribution of crime and explain some of the variation in volume of crime between urban areas and between cities by exploring urban structure and how people interact within it. Several hypothetical examples are provided. -after Authors
Analyzed how the rapist's travel behavior varies with the method of approach (e.g., kidnap/attack) and the number of reported rapes committed by the same offender. Data were obtained on 320 lone-assailants, including 156 single rapes and 164 serial rapes committed by 39 offenders. Results show that serial offenders tended to be strangers and showed a strong preference for blitz methods, while singles showed a stronger preference for the confidence approaches. Results indicate that the method of approach was a more significant contributor to rape-distance variation than type of offender. Single and serial offenders traveled the shortest distances to commit rapes using the illegal entry of residence method. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
One of the most problematic aspects of predatory violent crime is the volume of tips and suspects generated through their investigation. Traditional police methods are not always sufficient and detectives need alternative tactics to assist them in these types of cases. Geographic profiling, a strategic information management system designed to support investigative efforts in cases of serial murder, rape and arson, is one such approach. Other topics discussed include: introduction; investigative difficulties; geographic profiling; and conclusion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The crime scene actions employed by offenders in stranger rapes were analysed in relation to offender characteristics. Data were drawn from an official police database and consisted of stranger rapes occurring in Finland between 1992 and 2001 (n = 100). The structure of dichotomous variables derived through a content analysis of crime scene actions and offender characteristics were analysed with non-metric multidimensional scaling (MDS). The first analysis revealed three separate action themes, with thematic emphases on Hostility, Involvement or Theft. The MDS-solution for offender characteristics suggested four themes: Conventional; Psychiatric/Elderly; Criminal/Violent; and Criminal/Property. Each case was assigned to one of the themes or as a hybrid in order to analyse the associations between action themes and characteristics. The only significant association was found between the action theme, Theft and characteristics theme Criminal/Property. The results are discussed in relation to previous research. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Clues derived from the locations connected to violent repeat criminal offenders, such as serial murderers, rapists, and arsonists,
can be of significant assistance to law enforcement. Such information allows police departments to focus their activities,
geographically prioritize suspects, and to concentrate saturation or directed patrolling efforts in those zones where the
criminal predator is most likely to be active. By examining spatial data connected to a series of crime sites, this methodological
model generates a choropleth probability map that indicates the areas most likely to be associated to the offender—home, work
site, or travel routes. Based on the Brantingham theoretical structure and the routine activities approach, the model goes
beyond simple cluster or centroid analysis by employing specific serial murder research, overlapping modified Pareto functions,
and Manhattan distances. The methodology is also sensitive to the target/victim opportunity backcloth, landscape issues, and
problems of spatial “outliers.”
Technique known as centrography are presented in order to demonstrate their utility for describing and measuring the salient features of a spatial distribution and for facilitating temporal and comparative analyses in discerning trends and contrasting spatial distributions of crime. Centrographic techniques are applied to a 5-year data set of lone-assailant rapes classified by type of offender. The results indicate that different classes of offenders have relatively distinctive spatial distributions. Moreover, changes in the spatial distributions of offender classes, through time, are not uniform.
Incluye bibliografía e índice
Residential location of a serial offender can potentially be predicted by using models created from home to crime site journeys of solved crimes in the area [N. Levine, Journey-to-crime estimation, retrieved 23 October 2003 from http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/crimestat/CrimeStatChapter.9.pdf, last visited 1 February 2005]. Aims of this study were: (1) to examine the accuracy of this technique, (2) to explore relation of modus operandi (m.o.) to the distance the crime was committed from home and (3) to analyse whether the accuracy of prediction is enhanced by taking the m.o. into account. Data consisted of 76 commercial robbery series from the Greater Helsinki area. Accuracy of prediction was tested by using leave-one-out technique: the series which the predicting function was applied to was never part of the function used to predict. The functions allowed limiting the area to be searched to 4.7% (Mdn, IQR = 31.0%) of the study area generally, and to 1.0% (Mdn, IQR = 2.6%) when the suspect's spatial behaviour conformed to the circle hypotheses presented by Canter and Larkin [D. Canter, P. Larkin, The environmental range of serial rapists, J. Environ. Psychol. 13 (1993) 63-69]. Significant correlations between m.o. and the length of the journey-to-crime were found, but this information did not enhance accuracy of prediction. Low percentage of marauder style perpetrators in the data gives support to the possible separation of hypotheses of underlying spatial behaviour in instrumental crimes versus crimes of interpersonal violence or arson. Suggestions for development of investigative tools are presented.
The geographic and temporal sequencing of serial rape. Final report submitted to U.S. Department of Justice
- J Warren
- R Reboussin
- R Hazelwood
Warren, J., Reboussin, R., & Hazelwood, R. (1995). The geographic and temporal sequencing
of serial rape. Final report submitted to U.S. Department of Justice. Washington, D.C: National
Institute of Justice, Office of Justice Programmes.
Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Monographs on Sta-tistics and Applied Probability 26. London: Chapman and Hall Yearly percentage of solved crimes of manslaughter, homicide and murder in years
- B W Silverman
Silverman, B. W. (1990). Density estimation for statistics and data analysis. Monographs on Sta-tistics and Applied Probability 26. London: Chapman and Hall. Statistics Finland—Tilastokeskus (2006). Yearly percentage of solved crimes of manslaughter, homicide and murder in years 1990–2004.
How far from home offenders travel: An international comparison of crime trips in homicide, rape, burglary, and robbery cases. Poliisiammattikorkeakoulun tutkimuksia 18. Police College of Finland Multivariate density estimation—Theory practise and visualization
- P Santtila
- M Laukkanen
- K M Carlsson
- J Kardell
- M Faggiano
- M Picozzi
- A Zappalà
- M Zanchetti
Santtila, P., Laukkanen, M., Carlsson, K. M., Kardell, J., Faggiano, M., Picozzi, M., Zappalà, A., & Zanchetti, M. (2004). How far from home offenders travel: An international comparison of crime trips in homicide, rape, burglary, and robbery cases. Poliisiammattikorkeakoulun tutkimuksia 18. Police College of Finland, 2004. Scott, D. W. (1992). Multivariate density estimation—Theory practise and visualization. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.
The dark side of families-Current family violence research
- L Berkowitz
Berkowitz, L. (1983). The goals of aggression. In D. Finkelhor, R. J. Gelles, G. T. Hotaling, & M.
A. Straus (Eds.), The dark side of families-Current family violence research (pp. 166-181).
California: Sage Publications.
Crime and mobility: An empirical study
- W M Rhodes
- C Conly
Rhodes, W. M., & Conly, C. (1981). Crime and mobility: An empirical study. In P. J. Brantingham
& P. L. Brantingham (Eds.), Environmental criminology (pp. 167-188). Beverly Hills: Sage.
The 'road to nowhere': The evidence for travelling criminals. Home Office Research Study 207. London: Policing and Reducing Crime Unit
- P Wiles
- A Costello
Wiles, P., & Costello, A. (2000). The 'road to nowhere': The evidence for travelling criminals. Home
Office Research Study 207. London: Policing and Reducing Crime Unit, Home Office.
Ned Levine, CrimeStat III: A Spatial Statistics Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations The geography of movement The spatial dynamics of crime
- N Levine
- Ned
- Levine
- Associates
- Houston
- Tx
- Institute
- Justice
- Dc Washington
- J C Lowe
- S Moryadas
Levine, N. (2004). Ned Levine, CrimeStat III: A Spatial Statistics Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations. Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, TX, and the National Institute of Justice, Washington, DC. Lowe, J. C., & Moryadas, S. (1975). The geography of movement. Boston: Houghton Mifflin Company. Pyle, G. F. (1974). The spatial dynamics of crime. Department of Geography Research Paper No.
Victims: A study of crime in a Boston housing project Mayor's Safe Street Act, Advisory Committee Notes on the geometry of crime Crime and distance: An analysis of offender behaviour in space
- California Blumin
- D Brantingham
- P L Brantingham
- P J D L Nichols
- W W Jr
California: Sage Publications. Blumin, D. (1973). Victims: A study of crime in a Boston housing project. Boston: City of Boston, Mayor's Safe Street Act, Advisory Committee. Brantingham, P. L., & Brantingham, P. J. (1981). Notes on the geometry of crime. In P. J. Branti-ngham, & P. L. Brantingham (Eds.), Environmental Criminology (pp. 27–54). Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland Press. Capone, D. L., & Nichols, W. W. Jr. (1975). Crime and distance: An analysis of offender behaviour in space. Proceedings, Association of American Geographers, 7, 45–49.
Delinquency and distance
- S Turner
Turner, S. (1969). Delinquency and distance. In M. E. Wolfgang, & T. Sellin (Eds.), Delinquency:
Selected studies (pp. 11-26). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
Yearly percentage of solved crimes of manslaughter, homicide and murder in years The percentage is calculated by dividing the amount of solved cases in a statistical year by the amount of
Statistics Finland—Tilastokeskus (2006). Yearly percentage of solved crimes of manslaughter,
homicide and murder in years 1990–2004. Retrieved October 30, 2006 from
http://statfin.stat.fi/StatWeb/Table.asp?STB=G1,G2,G3&LA=fi&DM=SLFI&PA=AIKA8000&D
1=1-5&D2=0&D3=69&D4=a&HDR=T&TT=2. The percentage is calculated by dividing the
amount of solved cases in a statistical year by the amount of recorded cases in a statistical year.
Victims: A study of crime in a Boston housing project. Boston: City of Boston, Mayor's Safe Street Act
- D Blumin
Blumin, D. (1973). Victims: A study of crime in a Boston housing project. Boston: City of Boston,
Mayor's Safe Street Act, Advisory Committee.
How far from home offenders travel: An international comparison of crime trips in homicide, rape, burglary, and robbery cases
- P Santtila
- M Laukkanen
- K M Carlsson
- J Kardell
- M Faggiano
- M Picozzi
- A Zappalà
- M Zanchetti
Santtila, P., Laukkanen, M., Carlsson, K. M., Kardell, J., Faggiano, M., Picozzi, M., Zappalà, A., &
Zanchetti, M. (2004). How far from home offenders travel: An international comparison of crime
trips in homicide, rape, burglary, and robbery cases. Poliisiammattikorkeakoulun tutkimuksia 18.
Police College of Finland, 2004.
Crime and distance: An analysis of offender behaviour in space
- D L Capone
- W W Nichols
Capone, D. L., & Nichols, W. W. Jr. (1975). Crime and distance: An analysis of offender behaviour
in space. Proceedings, Association of American Geographers, 7, 45-49.
Target patterns of serial murderers: a methodological model
- D K Rossmo
Rossmo, D. K. (1993). Target patterns of serial murderers: a methodological model. American.
Journal of Criminal Justice, 17, 1-21.
G3&LA=fi&DM=SLFI&PA=AIKA8000&D 1=1-5&D2=0&D3=69&D4=a&HDR=T&TT=2. The percentage is calculated by dividing the amount of solved cases in a statistical year by the amount of recorded cases
Statistics Finland-Tilastokeskus (2006). Yearly percentage of solved crimes of manslaughter,
homicide and murder in years 1990-2004. Retrieved October 30, 2006 from
http://statfin.stat.fi/StatWeb/Table.asp?STB=G1,G2,G3&LA=fi&DM=SLFI&PA=AIKA8000&D
1=1-5&D2=0&D3=69&D4=a&HDR=T&TT=2. The percentage is calculated by dividing the
amount of solved cases in a statistical year by the amount of recorded cases in a statistical year.
- White