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Adjustment with growth: Nigerian experience with structural adjustment policy reform
Abstract
The paper presents an account of the origin, contents and apparent impact of the Nigerian structural adjustment programme of 1986–90. The programme arose from pressure by Nigeria's external creditors to reach an accommodation with the Bank and the Fund, but once the decision to undertake such a programme had been taken it became largely ‘home-grown’ and contains a number of heterodox elements, including a ban on imported foodstuffs. Other major elements are a shift to a market-determined exchange rate, the winding-up of the six government commodity marketing boards and the gradual elimination of administrative controls on overseas trade. The design of the programme takes note of a number of recent theoretical findings, including the significance of the intermediate import constraint and the presence of crowding-in effects of public expenditure on private investment in a number of African countries, any assessment of the programme's impact is of necessity preliminary; but, at the least, it has made possible a reduction in the burden of debt service, and the growth rate of GDP and exports, in particular export crops such as cocoa and rubber, have been much higher in the post-than in the pre-structural adjustment period; but inflation has worsened, real wages have fallen, and diversification of exports has not occurred. The tentative verdict is that the programme tried to achieve too much too soon, underestimated the resultant social costs, and placed too much reliance and changes in price incentives as a means of bringing about the necessary restructuring.
... The reduction of petroleum subsidies resulted in riots and a rise in transportation, food, and medical costs. It also led to a sharp decline in the standard of living (Oyejide, 1991;Walker, 2000;Ekpenyong, 1995). On November 8, 1993, the civilian government of Chief Ernest Shonekan announced a 614% increase in the pump price of gasoline, citing the high budgetary burden of maintaining petroleum subsidies (Eregha, Mesagan, & Ayoola, 2015). ...
... Resistance to petroleum subsidy removal attempts became a recurrent feature from 1986 when the IMF-backed Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) was introduced. SAP was touted as a means of diversifying the Nigerian economy in the wake of low oil prices, but it failed to achieve this and resulted in high inflation and lower wages (Oyejide, 1991). The dominant influences observed from the history of petroleum subsidy reform include crude oil prices, increased fiscal burden, political considerations, and public pressure. ...
One of the indicators of the Sustainable Development Goal 12 (“Ensure sustainable consumption and production patterns”) is the phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies “in a manner that protects the poor and the affected communities” (UN, 2019). Fossil fuel subsidies exacerbate a wide range of adverse economic, environmental, and social conditions such as fiscal imbalances, petroleum product smuggling, greenhouse gas emissions, and social inequities. These subsidies also reduce resources that governments could invest to meet sustainable development goals and other development objectives. Attempts to reform fossil fuel subsidies are often faced with strong resistance for a variety of reasons, including the associated inflationary impacts and price shocks, poor energy security, lack of viable alternatives, and negative welfare impacts on some of society’s most vulnerable. The resistance to fossil fuel subsidy reform in Nigeria accounts for the persistent underinvestment in critical infrastructure and social development. This dissertation analyses the reasons for fossil fuel subsidy reform inertia in Nigeria by studying the history of subsidy reform, and the factors that influence it. It asserts that the energy system’s diversification to include sustainable technology options would reduce dependence on fossil fuel sources, increase energy security, and potentially reduce the political barriers to fossil fuel subsidy reform. A scenario analysis of renewable energy penetration was done based on Nigeria’s sustainable energy for all action agenda (SE4ALL-AA) to validate this assertion. The study utilized the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) tool to project the sustainable development benefits of clean energy diffusion. The study examined the opportunities and challenges of renewable energy development and reviewed case studies to derive policy recommendations.
... Similarly, foreign debt grew from usd 9 billion in 1980 to usd 23 billion by 1986 (Oyejide, 1991). The huge gap between public needs and available funds not only intensified government's tendency to borrow, but constant reliance on loans also increased interest rates. ...
This study examines how neoliberalism affected the management of Covid-19 in Nigeria. As a result of its emphasis on privatisation and austerity, neoliberalism discouraged social investment programmes and provisioning. The privatisation of Nigeria’s health sector severely stifled health financing, which led to the collapse of public health institutions and the proliferation of private and informal health delivery systems. It limited universal access to quality healthcare, worsened the health conditions of poor Nigerians and rendered the health sector incapable of managing emergency health situations, such as Covid-19. The absence of well-coordinated social investment programmes to cushion the effects of lockdown widened social inequality and misery, making it impossible for citizens in the informal economy to adhere to the Covid-19 guidelines. The state responded with repression to enforce the rules. This study recommends overhauling the Nigerian state and its political economy as a condition for reducing citizen’s vulnerability to a pandemic.
... The coefficient of this variable is approximately 5.8, this indicated that the stoppage of SAP reduces REC of the Nigerian cocoa by about 5.8%. Similarly, the contribution of the agricultural sector to the national economy began to decline in the post SAP era (Oyejide, 1991;Tijani et al., 2015). This shows how important SAP is to the Nigerian cocoa industry. ...
Purpose-This paper aims to derive the time-varying relative export competitiveness (REC) of the Nigerian cocoa sector against Nigeria's share of world agricultural exports (REC_WA) and world merchandise exports (REC_WM) from 1995 to 2018. By concentrating on different factors such as demand and supply capacity, price factors and exchange rate, the authors examine the determinants of REC. Design/methodology/approach-The authors calculated three different REC indexes. The authors also developed the relative symmetric export competitiveness index for comparative advantage calculation and avoiding the possible bias. The determinants of REC for Nigerian cocoa were captured using the short-run regression (SRR) model. Findings-The study showed that Nigeria's cocoa exports are still competitive despite experiencing some declining stages. Based on the SRR model, higher per capita income had a positive effect on the REC, while higher domestic prices significantly reduced the REC of cocoa. Further, the African Growth Opportunity Act agreement adversely affected the REC of cocoa. Originality/value-This study provides a foundation for future research and enhances the literature on agricultural trade. This research makes a few contributions both from a scientific and a policy perspective. First, it is the first study on the REC analysis for the Nigerian cocoa industry. Second, a wide range of comparisons of REC among the world's largest cocoa exporters was provided following implications of the various economic policies and local policy strategies. Third, the latest 24-year data sets were covered.
IFRA-Nigeria Working Papers Series 87, IFRA-Nigeria. 2022, pp.1-20. hal-03762087
This article intervenes in recent formalist and ecocritical debates, drawing on the philosophy of Charles Darwin and Édouard Glissant to develop an ecopoetic theory of relational form. Gathering perspectives from ecocriticism and new materialism, literary criticism and comparative literature, the history and philosophy of science, postcolonial theory, critical race theory, and Black studies, it reads form as an interdisciplinary object that is part of the world, rather than an imposed feature of human language or perception. In this way, it produces a relational theory of form that is not hylomorphic or defined through the relation between form and content but, rather, is defined by the relation between a content and extant and, so, an interaction of relation and repetition. Drawing on the history of ecological science, it further explores how forms combine, how they amplify and interfere with each other, and how they support relations of harm and care. Finally, it uses this ecopoetic theory of form to read the histories of racial violence and migration in Matthew Arnold’s “Dover Beach” (1867) and Helen Oyeyemi’s White Is for Witching (2009).
The primary focus of this chapter is to identify and illuminate factors that affected the survival and development of informal,¹ small-scale businesses in Ibadan, Nigeria, in particular vocational competences as gained through apprenticeship. After a preliminary perusal of relevant literature the following generally, but by no means universally, supported hypotheses were elaborated:
1) The informal sector has inherent characteristic dynamics and independent development potential.
2) Due to its separate status and dynamic character, the informal sector can foster national economic growth and create employment.
3) Unlike the specialized vocational trades in Germany and other industrialized societies, a small-scale, informal tradesman in Nigeria must master a broad range of technical and entrepreneurial competences.
4) The informal sector is inherently flexible and innovative with regard to the application of available technology and the exploitation of changing market environments.
5) The number and complexity of competences in use will correlate with the extent to which a given trade is integrated into technologically industrialized means and methods of production.
6) The divergent levels of complexity among the trades studied will be reflected in the corresponding divergence in means of competence transfer.
7) Informal apprenticeship in its present form, is an efficient vector for the transfer of a relevant breadth and depth of trade-related competences in the broadest sense, encompassing technical, economic and social competences.
This study models the relationship involving globalization, urbanization, and sustainable development (SD) where SD is defined further as a function of sustainable urbanization. It repositions culture as one of the pillars of SD, underscores SD's operational definition as "complementarity" as against "uncompromising-ness" of efforts to meet the present and the future needs, and advances a performance-based SD index. This study delineates between the two terms "developing economies" and "emerging economies" in favor of the former. Accordingly, it adopts Nigeria as a case study of a developing economy grappling with urbanization (largely due to rural-urban divide). Nigeria is the fastest urbanizing country in Africa based on its population. Conversely, 80% of Nigeria's 50% urban population lives in slums, attributable to Nigeria's housing deficit of over 16 million units, which is increasing annually. Identifying housing as a menace to as well as an indicator of Nigeria's urbanization, this study summarizes the failure of prior efforts on housing in Nigeria into not being CLASS (culturallyacceptable, livable, affordable, sociable, and scalable) as well as not being SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant, and timebound). Premised on a SMART CLASS solution, it proposes an openloop urbanization model based on decentralized developments in Nigeria as against the prevailing focus on the capital states. With the increasing volume of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Nigeria and concerns of the benefits thereof, this study also investigates the role of foreign players in sustaining urbanization in Nigeria. Specifically, it underscores China's significant role as a development agent in Nigeria, its leading role in ISO standards on quality management and environmental management, and its exemplary role as the fastest urbanizing country in the world.
This paper locates the development planning era within the discourse on developmental statehood, with reference to Nigeria. It considers the state's use of development planning to facilitate resource transfers between economic sectors for the purpose of socio-economic transformation. The paper draws on the analytical framework of the enhanced developmental state paradigm (EDSP), which derives from the empirical experiences of East Asian developmental states and classical development economic concepts. It finds that although the development planning era was very significant for attempts at structural change, attendant processes and outcomes were undermined by changes in intellectual and policy debates on global development.
Analyses of Nigeria's adjustment experience have emphasised three main issues, namely, federal government dominance of reform processes; the macro-economic components and impact of the structural adjustment programme (SAP); and social responses to economic reform. Much illustrative material has been drawn also from the agricultural and rural sector, reflecting the locus of SAP-induced policy change in Nigeria. Less apparent in the available literature has been the place of state governments in the adjustment process. Also lacking is a historical perspective on the social infrastructure of étatism in rural society – official and quasi-official groupings of peasants, traders and rural dwellers.
This paper describes and examines simple versions of the analytical approaches employed by the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in designing adjustment programs that support their lending activities. In the case of the Bank this means essentially a variant of the two-gap growth model, and for the Fund a model derived from the monetary approach to the balance of payments. An attempt is also made to merge the Fund and Bank approaches within a consistent framework to demonstrate their complementarity.
This paper provides empirical evidence on the determinants of long-term growth performance in a sample of 55 developing countries grouped by income levels. The evidence indicates that a model incorporating the savings rate, export performance, expenditures on human capital development, population growth, and the real interest rate on external debt explains the growth performance of these countries remarkably well. The model also suggests policies that would lead to higher long-run rates of growth.
To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakers must estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchange available. Traditional models estimate import demand as a function of relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (gross domestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the 1980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms of trade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchange availability in most developing countries and limited import capacity.
In this article two import models are presented which incorporate both the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity—foreign exchange inflows and international reserves. The first model assumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the second model import prices are endogenous—allowing for government attempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domestic import price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-one developing countries for 1970–83. The results suggest that the import model presented here does a better job of explaining import behavior than do the traditional model (which excludes changes in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludes relative import prices and income).
Beleaguered policy-makers in developing countries have become quite tired of generalised advice. The remedies for macroeconomic malaise or stagnation that are appropriate in one country may be quite unsuited to the problems of another. Today’s ‘recipe’ for stabilisation and development in one country may be disastrous in its effects not only in other countries but also at other times in the same country. ‘Norms’ and ‘averages’ for the world, however fascinating to statisticians and development economists, are dubious guides for policy-makers in individual countries. Unhappiness with ‘global’ prescriptions has rarely been as vociferous as it has become in recent years in the context of the ‘conditionality’ attached to IMF, World Bank and other official lending. The IMF and the World Bank usually deny that they employ a single ‘model’ for all their member countries. Whether these institutions, qua institutions, do or do not, there can be little doubt that, within them, generalised prescriptions abound.
The standard import function--imports determined by aggregate economic activity and relative prices--cannot be correctly specified for less developed countries if relative price effects occur largely in the form of changes in exchange restrictions, or if imports consist of producer goods for which there are no domestic substitutes (so that imports determine income rather than the reverse). An alternative specification is developed in this paper. The author presents a theoretical argument--a special case of balance of payments adjustment--for a behavioral relation between imports and foreign exchange receipts of less developed countries. Through the use of a model determining how short-run response to external imbalance is divided between changes in reserves and in imports, this argument yields an empirical import function. Results for eight countries are broadly consistent with the hypothesized behavior. This specification is recommended as a substitute for the standard function, especially to avoid incorrect specification in cases in which strong reliance is placed on changes in restrictions to achieve short-run payments balance and to show the effects of "respendings" of foreign exchange in multicountry models. /// Il n'est pas possible de spécifier correctement la fonction normale d'importation -- à savoir les importations déterminées par l'activité économique globale et les prix relatifs -- pour les pays moins développés si l'incidence des prix relatifs prend surtout la forme de modifications des restrictions de change, ou si les importations consistent en biens d'équipement ou semi-manufacturés pour lesquels il n'existe pas localement de produits de remplacement (si bien que les importations déterminent le niveau de production et non vice versa). Une spécification mieux appropriée à la situation de ces pays est présentée dans cette étude. L'auteur présente une argumentation théorique -- un cas spécial d'ajustement le la balance des paiements -- en faveur d'une relation de comportement entre les importations et les recettes en devises des pays moins développés. Par l'utilisation d'un modèle déterminant comment la réaction à court terme à un déséquilibre externe prend une double forme: modifications des réserves et modifications des importations, cette argumentation établit une fonction d'importation empirique. Les résultats obtenus pour huit pays sont généralement conformes au comportement supposé. L'auteur recommande de substituer cette spécification à la fonction normale, en particulier afin d'éviter une spécification erronée dans les cas où les autorités s'en remettent dans une large mesure à la modification des restrictions pour réaliser l'équilibre des paiements en courte période, et pour montrer les effets de multiplication d'un changement dans les recettes en devises de certains pays dans les modèles multinationaux. /// La función de importación estándar, es decir, que la importación está determinada por la actividad económica agregada y los precios relativos, no puede formularse correctamente para los paÃses menos desarrollados si los efectos de los precios relativos se manifiestan principalmente en modificaciones de las restricciones cambiarias, o si la importación consiste en bienes de producción para los que no hay sustitutos nacionales (de manera que la importación determina el ingreso y no viceversa). En este artÃculo se examina una formulación distinta. El autor aduce teóricamente --como caso especial del ajuste de la balanza de pagos-- que hay una relación de comportamiento entre la importación y los ingresos de divisas de los paÃses menos desarrollados. Mediante un modelo que determina cómo la reacción a corto plazo ante un desequilibrio externo se divide en variaciones de las reservas y de la importación, el argumento desemboca en una función de importación empÃrica. Los resultados obtenidos para ocho paÃses se ajustan en términos generales al comportamiento previsto en la hipótesis. Se recomienda este método, como sustituto de la función estándar, al objeto de 1) evitar la formulación errónea en aquellos casos en que se confÃa principalmente en la modificación de las restricciones para equilibrar los pagos a corto plazo y, 2) mostrar los efectos multiplicadores del gasto de divisas en los modelos multinacionales.
Previous studies on the trading patterns of developing countries have tended to stress the role of nonprice factors as determinants of the demand for imports and exports. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of prices on trade flows by specifying and estimating import and export demand functions that include prices explicitly for 15 developing countries. In addition to testing the importance of prices, an attempt is also made to demonstrate how the role of quantitative restrictions on both imports and exports can be approximated and thus be incorporated into the estimates. Although the precise role of restrictions on trade may actually be nonquantifiable, it is shown that, under certain assumptions, statistical methods can be used to isolate, and therefore adjust for, their impact on the flow of imports and exports. In the study the basic procedure followed is to formulate two simple forms each of the import and export equations where the quantities demanded are related to the price, the price of the substitute (or, non- traded) goods, and income. The essential difference between the two formulations is that in one it is assumed that the adjustment of quantities to changes in the explanatory variables is instantaneous (less than one year) while in the other allowance is made for the possibility that there may be lags in the adjustment of quantities. The 15 countries are studied over the period 1951-69 on an annual basis and the demand equations are estimated by the two-stage least-squares method. The main conclusion is that prices do appear to have a significant effect on both import and export demand in the sample of countries studied. The estimated price elasticities tend to be much larger than is generally assumed to be the case in developing countries. Further, the estimates in the paper appear to show that the assumption of instantaneous adjustment is justified when annual data are used. /// Les études précédentes de la structure des échanges des pays en développement avaient tendance à souligner l'importance des facteurs autres que les prix pour déterminer la demande à l'importation et à l'exportation. La présente étude se propose d'examiner l'influence des prix sur les courants commerciaux en spécifiant et estimant les fonctions de la demande à l'importation et l'exportation qui tiennent explicitement compte des prix pour 15 pays en développement. Elle teste non seulement l'importance des prix, mais elle s'efforce également de démontrer comment on peut calculer approximativement et donc incorporer aux estimations l'influence des restrictions quantitatives aux importations et aux exportations. Bien qu'en fait on ne puisse pas quantifier le rôle exact des restrictions au commerce, on peut démontrer que, sur la base de certaines hypothèses, on peut utiliser des méthodes statistiques pour isoler et donc tenir compte de leur influence sur les flux d'importations et d'exportations. Dans cette étude, on a choisi pour méthode d'utiliser deux formes simples d'équations d'importations et d'exportations dans lesquelles les quantités demandées sont fonction du prix, du prix des produits de remplacement (ou qui n'entrent pas dans les échanges) et du revenu. La différence essentielle entre ces deux formulations est la suivante: dans l'une on suppose que l'ajustement des quantités aux variations des variables explicables est instantané (moins d'un an), alors que dans l'autre on tient compte de la possibilité de décalages dans l'ajustement des quantités. Les 15 pays sont étudiés pour la période 1951-69 sur une base annuelle et les équations de la demande sont estimées par l'ajustement des doubles moindres carrés. La principale conclusion est la suivante: les prix semblent avoir un effet significatif sur la demande à l'importation et à l'exportation dans l'échantillon des pays étudiés. Les élasticités/prix estimées ont tendance à être beaucoup plus élevées qu'on ne le suppose généralement dans les pays en développement. De plus, les estimations utilisées dans cette étude semblent démontrer que l'hypothèse d'un ajustement instantané est justifiée lorsqu'on se sert de données annuelles. /// En estudios anteriores del intercambio de los paÃses en desarrollo se ha subrayado la función de factores distintos del precio como determinantes de la demanda de importación y de exportación. En este artÃculo se examina el efecto de los precios en el flujo de los intercambios, y se formulan y estiman funciones de la demanda de importación y de exportación que comprenden el factor precio para 15 paÃses en desarrollo. Además de verificar la influencia de los precios, también se intenta demostrar cómo obtener una aproximación de la función de las restricciones cuantitativas a la importación y la exportación, e incorporarla luego a las estimaciones. Aunque quizá sea imposible cuantificar la función de las restricciones al comercio, se señala que, sobre la base de ciertos supuestos, los métodos estadÃsticos permiten aislar el impacto de las restricciones en el flujo de la importación y la exportación y, por consiguiente, proceder a un ajuste. El procedimiento básico en este estudio es formular dos ecuaciones simples para la importación y otras dos para la exportación en las que el volumen de demanda se relaciona con el precio, el precio del producto sustituto (es decir, el que no entra en el intercambio) y el ingreso. La diferencia fundamental entre las formulaciones está en que, ante los cambios de las variables explicativas, una supone un ajuste instantáneo del volumen (menos de un año), mientras que en la otra se admite la posibilidad de desfases. El estudio anual de 15 paÃses abarca el perÃodo 1951-69, y se utiliza el método de mÃnimos cuadrados de dos etapas para estimar las ecuaciones de la demanda. La conclusión principal es que, efectivamente, parece que el precio tiene un efecto significativo en las demandas de importación y exportación de la muestra de paÃses estudiados. Las elasticidades de precios estimadas tienden a ser mucho mayores de lo que se supone generalmente para los paÃses en desarrollo. Además, las estimaciones obtenidas parecen indicar que se justifica el supuesto de un ajuste instantáneo si se utilizan datos anuales.
Thesis (Ph. D.)--Princeton University, 1975.
Besides working with a fairly large sample of 73 LDCs, investigates the relationships for 1960-70 and 1970-77 separately to judge whether the importance of exports for economic growth increased over the 1970s. Further, takes a closer look at the differential in the impact of exports in the low income and the middle income LDCs, for both periods, thus examining the widely held belief that exports are probably not important for growth in the low income LDCs. Conducts a test to see whether the assumption of homoscedasticity is reasonable and whether a single-equation model is adequate. Finds that once again, export performance does seem important for economic growth. In addition, the importance of exports seems to have increased during the 1970s. While the impact of export performance on growth does seem small in the low income LDCs over the period 1960-70, the impact differential almost disappears in 1970-77, during which period the positive impact of exports on growth seems quite large and of almost equal magnitude for the two groups. -from Author
In recent years, many developing countries have had to compress imports to generate trade surpluses to service foreign debt. However, since imports of intermed iate and capital goods are critical inputs in export production, impo rt compression can adversely affect export performance. In turn, slow er export growth limits foreign exchange availability, inducing furth er import compressions. This paper develops a model that incorporates feedbacks between imports and exports arising from the effects of im port compression on exports, and of the availability of foreign excha nge on imports. Estimates of the model for a sample of thirty-four de veloping countries confirm both hypotheses. Copyright 1988 by MIT Press.
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