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Tracking Global
Christianity’s Statistical
Centre of Gravity,
AD 33–AD 2100
Todd M. Johnson and Sun Young Chung
Todd M. Johnson is Director of the Centre for the Study of Global Christianity at Gordon-Conwell
Theological Seminary in South Hamilton, Massachusetts, USA. He is co-author of World
Christian Encyclopedia, 2nd edition, Oxford, 2001, and World Christian Trends, AD 30-
AD 2200, William Carey Library 2001. •
Sun Young Chung is a M.Div. student at Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary. She and her hus-
band John pastor a multiethnic church in Boston. •
Abstract
Christians, at any given time in history, have definable geographic locations and a demographic
or statistical centre. A single geographic point is here identified as the statistical “centre of grav-
ity” of Christianity for each of 25 different dates in Christian history, beginning with AD 33 (the
traditional date for the origin of the church) and projecting to AD 2100 (one hundred years into
the future). The methodology for locating these points utilizes demographic and religious affilia-
tion statistics relating to 21 United Nations regions. By connecting these points, a line is formed
that can be viewed as the “trajectory” of global Christianity. In the early Christian centuries the
trajectory moved around the eastern Mediterranean but, after AD 600, the trajectory was aston-
ishingly consistent, moving both north and west until AD 1500 when it began to move slowly to
the south. After 1900, the trajectory moved precipitously to the south, and then, after AD 1970,
definitively back to the east. By AD 2100, the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity is like-
ly to be in northern Nigeria. This trajectory is tracked in detail throughout Christian history, and
historical comments and interpretation are provided, with one map, one graphic, and two tables.
Brief consideration is given to the implications of the present southeastern trajectory of
Christianity for theology, translation and mission.
One of the most significant features of Christianity, apart from its theology, ethics and eccle-
siastical structures, is the number and location of its followers. These followers, called
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
166
“Christians”, are individuals, and they have distinct ethnic identities, speak identifiable lan-
guages, and make their homes in specific geographic locations.
1
Throughout the history of
Christianity, whole villages, tribes and peoples have embraced the Christian message.
Consequently, groups of followers, including their ethnicity and language, can be named,
located, listed, counted, mapped and tracked over time. As a result, Christians as a whole,
at any given time in history, have a definable geographic boundary and a demographic or
statistical centre. In practical terms, a single geographic point on earth can be seen as the sta-
tistical “centre of gravity
2
” of all Christian followers at any given date, and the place where
the numbers of all Christians living to its north, its south, its east and its west are exactly the
same.
3
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
167
Note. The trajectory is calculated for each of the 25 dates above on the numbers of Christians in the 21 United
Nations regions, and utilizing a geographic centre for each region to calculate the centre of gravity for all
Christians. See the methodology and Tables 1 and 2 in the Appendix for full documentation.
1For a detailed enumeration of Christians, past, present and future, see D.B. Barrett, G. T. Kurian, and T.M.
Johnson, World Christian Encyclopedia: a Comparative Survey of Churches and Religions in the Modern World, 2nd edi-
tion, New York, Oxford University Press, 2001, 2 vols, 1,699 pages.
2Used here to mean the latitude and longitude which represent the statistical centre of all Christian followers
in clearly-defined geographical areas. This term was used in a more general demographic sense by D. Barrett
in his 1970 IRM article, “AD 2000: 350 million Christians in Africa”, Vol. LIX, No. 233, January 1970,
p. 39-54.
3One half of all Christians in the world live north of this point, the other half live south of the point. In the
same way, one half live to the east of the point, and the other half to the west.
Map 1. Trajectory of the Statistical Center of Gravity of Global Christianity, AD 33-AD 2100
The demographic history of Christianity is viewed precisely through this lens in Map 1:
“Trajectory of the statistical centre of gravity of global Christianity, AD 33-AD 2100.”
(p. 167) A single geographic point has been identified in Table 1 (p. 179) as the statistical
centre of gravity of Christianity for each of 25 different dates in Christian history, beginning
with AD 33 (the traditional date for the origin of the church), and projecting to AD 2100
(one hundred years into the future). The methodology, which employs current United
Nations (UN) regional boundaries for arriving at the location of these points, is found in the
appendix (cf. pages 177f). The points have been connected in order to approximate a “tra-
jectory” of the demographic centre of gravity of Christianity throughout its history. A more
detailed and precise trajectory could also be drawn up utilizing data on 238 countries instead
of 21 regions. Again, one could consider the world’s 13,000 ethnolinguistic peoples as the
basic demographic units for yet more detailed demographic analysis.
Documenting the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity
Table 1 “Global Christianity’s statistical centre of gravity, AD 33-AD 2100” (cf. page 179)
provides more information on each of the dates analysed in Map 1, and on the line con-
necting them. Column 1 lists 25 different years, from AD 33 to AD 2100, in which
Christian demography is examined. Columns 2-8 refer exactly to the date in column 1,
whereas columns 9-11 refer to the period leading up to that date. Column 2 gives an esti-
mate of the number of Christians in millions in the world at the corresponding date in
Column 1. Column 3 gives the percentage of the world’s population represented by the
number of Christians in Column 2. Columns 4 and 5 report the latitude and longitude of
the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity for the date in Column 1. Column 6 gives an
approximation for the nearest settlement (existing in the year in Column 1) of the latitude
and longitude in Columns 4 and 5. Columns 7 and 8 compute the percentage of Christians
living in the North or the South
4
(presented as an area graph in Graph 1, cf. page 170).
Column 9 gives the direction of the line leading up to the date in Column 1. For example,
leading up to AD 200, the line was headed directly west. After AD 200, the line abruptly
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
168
4North is defined here in a geopolitical sense by five current United Nations regions (53 countries): Eastern
Europe (including Russia), Northern Europe, Southern Europe, Western Europe and Northern America.
South is defined as the remaining 16 current UN regions (185 countries): Eastern Africa, Middle Africa,
Northern Africa, Southern Africa, Western Africa, Eastern Asia, South-central Asia, South-eastern Asia,
Western Asia, Caribbean, Central America, South America, Australia/New Zealand, Melanesia, Micronesia,
and Polynesia. Three other geographic ways of dividing North and South could be proposed. First, one
could consider that the equator represents the dividing line between North and South (Northern and
Southern hemisphere). Second, one could move the line north to the Tropic of Cancer (23 1/2° North lati-
tude), thus capturing most of Latin America, Africa, and Asia in the South. Third, one could consider
Jerusalem’s parallel of latitude (31.8° North) as the dividing line. Each of these alternatives has advantages
and disadvantages. For the purposes of this study, the geopolitical model based on current UN regions is the
most practical because statistics on demography and religious affiliation are most readily available for these
regions.
headed southeast (represented in Column 9 under AD 300). Column 10 considers the dis-
tance, in kilometres, between the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity at two consec-
utive dates, divided by the number of years, and then presented as a rate in kilometres per
year. For example, the distance between the statistical centre of gravity in AD 400 and AD
500 was 560 kilometres, thus the rate for that 100-year period was 5.6 km per year. Column
11 provides a short explanation for why the centre of Christian demographics changed
location since the previous date. This could be in the form of an advance into a new area,
a retreat from an existing Christian area, or simply gradual growth or decline. Column 11
also accounts for the direction and extent of the demographic shift between consecutive
dates.
It is important to point out that a series of single points connected by a line, or a trajecto-
ry, is compatible with differing explanations of the geography of Christian growth. All his-
torians are aware that the drama of Christian expansion unfolded in a complex set of
events, but differing interpretations are offered. K.S. Latourette explains these events in
terms of expansion and recession.
5
Ralph Winter proposes viewing the expansion in terms
of the penetration of new cultural basins in 400-year increments.
6
Andrew Walls utilizes
the motif of serial expansion where Christianity moves into new areas and dies out in areas
of previous numerical strength.
7
Nevertheless, in utilizing any of these explanations or oth-
ers, a demographic centre of all Christian followers can be identified for any date in
Christian history. Locating and following the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity as
a trajectory over time helps us to visualize the overall demographic growth of Christian
expansion.
The demography of global Christianity
Table 2 “Number of Christians in millions by UN region and by North/South dichotomy,
AD 33-AD 2100” (cf. pages 180f) provides further documentation for the trajectory of global
Christianity. It lays out in detail the number of Christians (in millions) in each UN region
(current boundaries) for each of the 25 dates in Table 1 and in Map 1.
8
The 21 UN regions
are set out in the table under “The North” (Europe and Northern America) and “The South”
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
169
5K.S. Latourette, A History of Christianity, Vol 1: Beginnings to 1500, New York, Harper & Row, 1975, p. xxi.
6R. D. Winter, “The Kingdom Strikes Back: Ten Epochs of Redemptive History”, in R.D. Winter and S.C.
Hawthorne, eds, Perspectives on the World Christian Movement, Third Edition, Pasadena, CA, William Carey
Library, 1999, pp. 195-213.
7A.F. Walls, The Cross-Cultural Process in Christian History: Studies in the Transmission and Appropriation of Faith,
Maryknoll, NY, Orbis Books, 2002, p. 13.
8Estimates for the number of Christians and the larger demographic context for the 21 United Nations
regions (current boundaries) are given in Part 7 “Geotrends” in D.B. Barrett and T.M. Johnson, World
Christian Trends, AD 30-AD 2100: Interpreting the Annual Christian Megacensus, Pasadena, CA, William Carey
Library, 2001.
(Africa, Asia, Latin America, and Oceania).
9
The North/South dichotomy is significant
today for Christians because the term “Southern Christians” or “Christians of the Global
South” is increasingly replacing the synonymous term “non-Western Christians”.
10
Additionally, Table 2 sets out the geographic centre of each region by latitude and longitude.
This centre is essential to the calculations outlined in the methodology found in the appen-
dix. As an additional feature, the UN region with the most Christians is highlighted in grey
for each of the 25 dates. This single figure is often helpful in explaining the trajectory of
Christian followers at a particular date in Christian history. Totals are given in the table for
Christians in the North, the South, and for the globe.
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
170
Notes. The graph above represents the percentage of Christians in the North (defined as Northern America
and Europe) and the South (defined as Africa, Asia, Latin America and Oceania). Raw numbers are found in
Table 2 on pages 180f.
9A recent United Nations Development Programme document “Forging a Global South” (New York, May
2003) states, “The use of the term ‘South’ to refer to developing countries collectively has been part of the
shorthand of international relations since the 1970s. It rests on the fact that all of the world’s industrially
developed countries (with the exception of Australia and New Zealand) lie to the north of its developing
countries.” See footnote 4 for the precise definitions of North and South used in the methodology of this arti-
cle.
10 For example, Anglicans in the Global South spoke out under the leadership of Nigerian Primate Akinola in
the recent document, “Statement of the Primates of the Global South in the Anglican Communion in
Response to the Consecration of Gene Robinson on 2 November 2003” at www.anglican-nig.org/glb-
southst.htm.
From South to North and back again
Percentages for Christians living in the North and South for 22 dates, derived from Table 2
and presented in Table 1 in columns 7 and 8, are represented in Graph 1: “Christians, by
percentage in North or South, AD 33-AD 2100” (see previous page). The general outline of
these percentages is well known. Christians were all Southerners
11
at the time of Christ, and
gradually became more Northern until 1500 when fully 92% of all Christians were
Northerners (Europeans). This percentage began to gradually decline until 1900, when it
was 83%. After 1900 the Northern percentage declined precipitously while the Southern
rose meteorically. By 2100, over three fourths of all Christians will be living in the South.
12
This represents a return to the demographic makeup of Christianity at the time of Christ
(predominantly Southern) but also depicts a vast extension of Christianity into all countries,
as well as to thousands of peoples, languages and cultures.
What does the trajectory signify?
Having identified a single point as the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity for each of
25 different dates, it is instructive to connect these points and thus create a line that can be
considered a trajectory
13
or general path taken by the statistical centre of gravity of
Christianity. The first application of the trajectory is as a visual marker for Christian demo-
graphics. The trajectory of the demographic centre of gravity of Christianity throughout the
centuries provides a visual context to the Christian story, especially from the standpoint of
Christian expansion. For example, in the earliest Christian centuries, Christianity penetrat-
ed dozens of peoples in Asia, Africa, and Europe, including Jews, Romans, Greeks,
Armenians, Copts, Ethiopians, Indians, Berbers, Syrians and Persians. Within a short peri-
od of time, Vandals, Celts, Anglo-Saxons, Vikings, Slavs, Turks, Russians and Chinese were
added. The trajectory reveals the general path and direction where the largest numbers of
individuals were becoming Christians, and serves as a visual marker of the centre of gravi-
ty of Christian expansion.
Second, a trajectory formed by Christian followers signifies more than simply a demo-
graphic reality. Where there are more followers there are more churches, more priests and
pastors, more Christian institutions, more potential missionaries to be sent out, more the-
ologians, and so on. The trajectory, then, has ecclesiastical, missiological and theological
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
171
11 Ancient Palestine is located in the present-day UN region of Western Asia, defined above as part of the
South.
12 Increasingly, “Northern” Christians are Southern Christians who have immigrated to the North. For exam-
ple, some of the largest single congregations in Europe are led by and comprised of Africans.
13 Defined as “a path, progression, or line of development likened to a physical trajectory” in Webster’s Third
New International Dictionary, Chicago, Encyclopedia Britannica, 1966.
implications. These can be examined in the context of Christian history and the future of
Christianity.
The trajectory of the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity can be viewed in four seg-
ments: (1) early Christian expansion in various directions from AD 33-AD 600, (2) a con-
sistent northern and western trajectory from AD 600-AD 1500, (3) a slight-southern and
western trajectory from AD 1500-1970, and (4) a southern and eastern trajectory after AD
1970.
Following the trajectory in early Christian history,
AD 33-AD 600
Christians were first concentrated in or around Jerusalem at the time of the origin of the
church on the day of Pentecost.
14
From there, Christians began to spread in several direc-
tions. The Acts of the Apostles provides an outline of Christian expansion in its initial
decades. If Christians had spread out in exactly the same numbers in every direction from
Jerusalem then the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity would have remained in
Jerusalem. But the growth of Christianity did not follow a static pattern. Instead,
Christianity, in its first one hundred years, grew more to the north and northwest than to
the south or the east.
After AD 100, Christianity grew in an irregular fashion, first in one direction, and then in
another, and thus pulled the demographic centre in the direction of growth (or away from
areas of decline). In fact, this is precisely what can be viewed on Map 1 from AD 100-AD
600. After 100, Christianity grew to the west, then back to the east, and finally in the north-
western direction that would define the bulk of Christian history. Maps of early Christian
expansion unmistakably illustrate this zigzag growth pattern.
15
Table 2 shows that, despite
this pattern, Southern Europe was the single region with the largest number of Christians
in 100, 200, 300 and 400. Nonetheless, there were more Christians in Asia and Africa as a
whole than in all of Europe for all of those dates.
One of the clear features of this zigzag pattern in early Christian history was the emergence
of multiple locations of Christian centres of theological study and missions. As churches
grew all over the Mediterranean world, theologians were attracted to centres such as Hippo,
Carthage, Alexandria, Jerusalem, Antioch, Constantinople and Rome. The same was true in
terms of missionary sending centres such as Alexandria, Edessa, or Rome, and some farther
afield such as Merv in Central Asia and Iona in Scotland. The trajectory depicts the move-
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
172
14 Technically, there were already followers in Galilee, Samaria and at other places in ancient Palestine. But it
is reasonable to assume Jerusalem as a centre when the numbers were still reasonably small.
15 See, for example, F. van der Meer and C. Mohrmann, Atlas of the early Christian world, London, Nelson, 1959.
ment of the centerpoint of all of this activity. The fastest rate of expansion in any single
direction in this period was from AD 400 to AD 500 where the growth of the Church of the
East along the silk road pulled the centre of gravity to the east at a rate of 5.6 km per year
over the 100 year period.
Christianity moves decidedly North and West,
AD 600-AD 1500
Map 1 illustrates an astonishingly consistent trajectory for Christianity from about AD 600
to AD 1500. The line moved steadily north and west after AD 600, and reached its north-
ernmost point in about 1500. Table 2 reveals that in AD 600 and AD 700, the region with
the highest number of Christians was still deep in Asia (South-central). In AD 800 and AD
900, more Christians lived in Western Asia and the statistical centre of gravity of
Christianity was near Iconium (present-day Turkey). However, after AD 900, the line
moved unquestionably to the northwest, and for the first time in Christian history Northern
Christians were in the majority.
By AD 1000, the statistical centre was quite near Constantinople, thus coinciding with one
of Christianity’s great ecclesiastical and spiritual centres. However, during the next 100
years, the great schism between Catholics and Orthodox occurred. Catholics in Europe also
launched the crusades, which were disastrous in the end for the Orthodox Christians of
Western Asia. In AD 1000 and AD 1100, Southern Europe was, once again, the most pop-
ulous Christian region. This distinction then shifted to Western Europe for 500 years, from
AD 1200 to AD 1700. By AD 1500, the statistical centre of Christianity had reached its
northernmost point. The churches in Asia and Africa
16
had waned and Christianity was
almost exclusively identified as Northern and European.
Christianity begins to move to the South, AD 1500-AD 1970
After 1500, the statistical centre of Christianity, though still moving west, slowly began pro-
ceeding south. The age of discovery brought Christianity to the Americas, which further
pulled the Christian centre of gravity to the west.
17
Although first Roman Catholic mission-
aries (1500s) and later Anglicans and Protestants (1800s) made inroads into Africa and
Asia, the resulting Christian communities were numerically small. In 1500, 1600, and 1700,
Western Europe still had more Christians than any other region. In 1800 and 1900 Eastern
Europe held this distinction, largely due to the growth of the Russian Orthodox Church.
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
173
16 With notable exceptions, such as the remarkably resilient Orthodox churches of Egypt, Ethiopia and India.
17 This numerical fact must be viewed in light of the atrocities that accompanied the expansion of Christianity
in the Americas. Even when missionaries opposed imperialistic initiatives, they were often inexorably asso-
ciated with them. Back in Europe things were not much better, where the wars of religion followed the
Protestant Reformation.
But by 1900 Christians were located in significant numbers in most regions and no single
region would have much impact on the trajectory.
Even so, by 1900 something profound happened to the trajectory of global Christianity. The
line turned precipitously southwest. Around 1950, Christianity’s statistical centre of gravity
crossed below 31.8° North latitude (where it started in Jerusalem) for the first time since
the time of Christ. As Kenneth Scott Latourette’s great century
18
was coming to a close,
churches outside of Europe and the Americas that had taken root in the 19th century, grew
rapidly in the 20th century.
19
Africa, in particular, led this transformation, and grew from
only 10 million Christians in 1900 to 360 million by AD 2000. Given current trends, there
could be over 600 million Christians in Africa by 2025. Nonetheless, in 1970, Northern
America had more Christians than any other single region.
The move to the South had accelerated greatly by the end of this period. From AD 1700-
1800 the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity did not move at all to the south. From
AD 1800-1900 it moved only 3.3° to the south, but over the next 100 years it shifted to the
south by an astounding 20°. In the same period, the trajectory moved at its fastest rate (16.3
km/year from 1900-1970, then 19.0 km/year from 1970 to 2000) of any time in Christian his-
tory.
Christianity shifts back to the East and continues South,
AD 1970-AD 2100
Then in 1970, in an equally stunning development, the Christian centre of gravity turned
back east (still moving south) for the first time since AD 600. This was largely due to the
rise of Christianity in the tropical countries of Africa and Latin America (south) and in Asia,
particularly in China and India (east). Shortly after 1980, Christians in the South outnum-
bered those in the North for the first time in 1,000 years.
Projections for the future show that while the trajectory continues to move to the southeast,
the Christian churches of the Global South (Africa, Asia, Latin America and Oceania) will
likely continue to acquire an increasing percentage of global Christianity. By 2100, the geo-
graphic centre of Christianity is expected to be a full 30° of latitude south of where it was at
its most northern point in AD 1500, and 20° south of Jerusalem where it began in AD 33.
Table 2 shows that in AD 2100 Southern Christians (2.8 billion) will be well over three times
as numerous as Northern Christians (775 million).
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
174
18 Defined as 1815-1914 in K. S. Latourette, A History of Christianity, Vol II: Reformation to the Present, New York,
Harper & Row, 1975, p. 1063.
19 Note that Latin America was already 95% Christian (Roman Catholic) in 1900. The changes in Latin
American Christianity since then refer to the growth of Protestantism and Pentecostalism.
Features of the present southeastern trajectory
What does it mean for the future of Christianity that the demographic centre of gravity of
Christianity continues to move in a southeastern trajectory at the same time as the South is
taking an increasing percentage of global Christianity? We have identified three areas for
brief consideration here: (1) theology, (2) translation, and (3) mission. Although numerous
authors in the past 35 years have written about the southward shift of Christianity,
20
we
believe that tracking the trajectory of Christianity may shed new light on these areas.
Theological implications of the trajectory
In recent centuries, the dominant theologies of Christianity have been written by Northern
scholars, but the massive movements of Southern Christianity will likely chart the future of
Christian theology. From the standpoint of the trajectory, theological reflection has emerged
along the trajectory from the Church Fathers in the earliest centuries to Europeans in the
next 1000 years (Roman Catholic, Anglican, Protestant and Russian Orthodox). Today,
then, one would expect voices to emerge along the southeastern trajectory. However, one
unique feature of Christian demographics today is the near total geographic spread of
Christianity worldwide. Therefore one would anticipate not only contributions from near
the centre of gravity in Africa, but also from Southern Christians, such as Filipinos,
Brazilians, and Chinese, who are far from the trajectory.
21
Southern Christians can also
locate themselves on today’s trajectory by interpreting and critiquing Northern
Christianity’s 1,000 year dominance of the trajectory (AD 950-AD 1950). Furthermore,
they can rediscover the theological, ecclesiastical and missiological trajectory of the first
Christian millennium when Southern Christians were in the majority and the centre of grav-
ity was in Western Asia.
“They speak in many tongues”
The rapid southern trajectory of Christianity since 1900 also suggests that the dominant lan-
guages of Christianity will shift from North to South. Already by 1980, Spanish (primarily
in its Latin American forms) was the leading language of church membership in the world.
22
But Christians in Africa, Asia and Latin America worship in numerous other languages.
Thus, translation of the Christian message has become increasingly important since all peo-
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
175
20 One of the more recent and thorough treatments is P. Jenkins, The Next Christendom: the Coming of Global
Christianity, New York, Oxford University Press, 2002.
21 See Hwa Yung’s detailed proposal for Asians in global Christian perspective in Mangoes or Bananas? The Quest
for an Authentic Asian Christian Theology, Oxford, Regnum Books International, 1997.
22 See Global Table 7 “Affiliated Christians (Church Members) Ranked by 96 Languages each with over a
Million Native Speakers, AD 1980” in D.B. Barrett, World Christian Encyclopedia, New York, Oxford
University Press, 1982, p. 10.
ples, languages and cultures have a unique contribution to make to global Christianity.
23
Northern scholars, no longer at the Christian centre of gravity, will also have to recognize
and seriously consider writings in non-English and non-European languages. Consequently,
there is a great need for Christian scholarship in Southern languages to be translated into
English, French, German, Italian, etc.
Whose mission?
For 100 years the trajectory has been moving away from traditionally Christian countries
into both non-Christian and newly-Christian lands. As a result, Muslims and Christians are
in close proximity in countries like Nigeria, Sudan, Indonesia and the Philippines. The same
is true of Christians and Hindus in India, and Buddhists and Christians in Southeast Asia.
24
Some see inevitable conflict in the future while others are more hopeful.
25
The trajectory has
given Christians around the globe a new opportunity to show hospitality to non-Christian
neighbours, and to take a genuine interest in their religions and cultures. With the trajecto-
ry moving from Europe to the Southern hemisphere, Africa, Asia and Latin America can no
longer be seen as the periphery. Instead, “Christian mission to all parts of the globe will
require resources from both the North and the South to be successful.”
26
Finally, it is important to remember that there are at least 4,000 cultures (out of 13,000) that
have not yet been reached with the Christian gospel.
27
Most are Muslims, Hindus and
Buddhists in the South. Who from the South (or North) will be presenting the gospel to
these peoples? What cultural expectations are likely to be made for those who choose to fol-
low Christ? Perhaps surprisingly for many Northerners (and Southerners?), there are
encouraging signs that people from these great religious systems may not have to entirely
leave their traditions to become Christians.
28
Nonetheless, the frontier missions task still
remains unfinished in the context of global Christianity’s southeastern trajectory.
Conclusion
The 2,000-year trajectory of Christianity reveals a fascinating story of Christianity’s demo-
graphic roots in Asia and Africa, its gradual move into Europe, and its recent return to the
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
176
23 L. Sanneh summarises his long-standing argument for translation in Whose Religion is Christianity? The Gospel
Beyond the West, Grand Rapids, MI, Eerdmans, 2003.
24 With recent surges of immigration from the South to the North, large numbers of Muslims, Hindus and
Buddhists live in Northern America and Europe, thus giving Christians there similar opportunities.
25 Such as T.W. Simmons, Islam in a Globalizing World, Stanford, CA, Stanford University Press, 2003.
26 S. Escobar, The New Global Mission, Downers Grove, IL, InterVarsity Press, 2003, p. 18.
27 These are listed in Part 8 “Ethnosphere”, in Volume 2 of Barrett, Kurian and Johnson, World Christian
Encyclopedia, pp. 30-241. Note that the 4,000 least-evangelised peoples are identified as World A in column
34. These peoples receive the least attention from Northern or Southern Christians (scripture translation,
radio broadcasting, missionaries, etc).
28 See especially H. Hoefer’s observations of Hindus in Madras who were following Jesus Christ from within
the Hindu context, in Churchless Christianity, Pasadena, CA, William Carey Library, 2001.
South. Christianity’s great institutions and leaders have followed this trajectory. Therefore,
the present southeastern trajectory of Christian demographics represents a new chapter in
global Christianity. What is certain is that Christianity can no longer draw on a dominant
Northern cultural, linguistic, or political framework for direction. Neither can the future be
seen exclusively through the lenses of Southern Christianity. Global Christianity today is a
phenomenon, not of uniformity, but of ever-increasing diversity. Paul-Gordon Chandler
writes, “It is like the canvas of a beautiful painting with contrasting and complementary
colours. The foundation for our unity as Christians throughout the world is not our likeness
but our diversity.”
29
The unanswered question for Christians from both the North and South
is, “How well will we work, minister, and grow together in the context of this astonishing
diversity?” Today, the southeastern trajectory of global Christianity’s statistical centre of
gravity provides clues about where one might look to find both the answers and the leader-
ship for that quest.
APPENDIX
Methodology
The data for calculating the geographic centre of gravity of Christianity are set out in detail
from Table 7-2 of World Christian Trends,
30
which utilizes the United Nations’ classification of
all countries, from which this article derives its definition of the “North” as the 48 countries
in “Europe” plus the 5 in “Northern America”; and the “South” as all other 185 countries in
Africa, Asia, Latin America and Oceania. Table 2 reproduces these estimates for the num-
ber of Christians in millions in each of the current United Nations 21 regions at 25 points in
history. These estimates were used as the baseline of this analysis. The following steps were
taken to estimate the statistical centre of gravity of Christianity. First, latitude and longitude
were assigned (second and third columns in Table 2) for an approximate geographic centre
for each UN region based on geography and population patterns. Second, these were recal-
ibrated by depicting southern latitudes as negative numbers (50°S = -50) and then adding
90 to all latitudes. This produces a range of 0 at the South pole to 180 at the North pole.
Longitude was recalibrated by retaining values for all eastern longitudes while subtracting
all western longitudes from 360 (100°W = 260). This produces a range of 0 to 350 (10° west
of Greenwich) by moving eastward around the world from Greenwich. Third, the number
of Christians (in millions) in each region (found in Table 2) was multiplied by the recali-
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
177
29 P. Chandler, God’s Global Mosaic: What We Can Learn from Christians Around the World, Downers Grove, IL,
InterVarsity Press, 2000, p. 15.
30 Barrett and Johnson, World Christian Trends., pp. 319-334.
brated latitude and longitude, summed for every region and then divided by the total num-
ber of Christians in the world. This produces an approximate geographic centre (latitude
and longitude) for Christianity, expressed in recalibrated form. These were then converted
to actual latitude and longitude, and appear in Table 1 in columns 4 and 5. Note that adjust-
ing either the geographic centre of a single UN region or the estimate of the number of
Christians in a region would change the location of the statistical centre (latitude and longi-
tude) for any given date.
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Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
179
Table 1. Global Christianity's Statistical Center of Gravity, AD 33-AD 2100.
Christians % of world Geographic Center Closest Percentages Rate
Year (millions) population Latitude Longitude Settlement North South Direction km/year Growth or decline of Christianity by geographic region
123456 789 1011
33 0.01 0.01 31.8° N 35.3° E Jerusalem 0 100 — — Christian followers meet in Jerusalem and surrounding Palestine
100 0.80 0.45 35.6° N 31.4° E Cyprus 39 61 Northwest 2.7 Followers in Southern Europe, Western Asia, and India
200 4.66 2.43 35.9° N 26.1° E Crete 42 58 West 4.9 Churches grow in Southern Europe and North Africa
300 14.01 7.30 35.4° N 27.0° E Karpathos 36 64 Southeast 1.0 Orthodox churches grow rapidly in Syria and Mesopotamia
400 25.32 13.43 35.6° N 27.3° E Rhodes 40 60 Northeast 0 .4 Edict of Toleration: Roman Empire over 50% Christian for first time
500 37.80 19.86 35.3° N 33.2° E Cyprus 37 63 East 5.6 Church of the East follows the Silk Road; Patrick evangelizes Ireland
600 40.40 20.83 35.7° N 33.8° E Seleucia 36 64 Northeast 0.7 Churches strong in Central Asia; Celtic peregrini in Northern Europe
700 40.57 19.80 36.5° N 32.6° E Side 38 62 Northwest 1. 4 Islam expands in North Africa, Central Asia; First Christians in China
800 40.87 18.75 37.6° N 31.1° E Iconium 44 56 Northwest 1.8 Continued expansion of Islam, Charlemagne crowned emperor
900 40.83 17.13 38.3° N 31.3° E Iconium 48 52 North 0.6 Vikings convert to Christianity; Islam strong in Spain
1000 44.67 16.94 40.5° N 28.0° E Cyzicus 58 42 Northwest 3.9 Russia and Iceland convert to Christianity
1100 51.96 16.32 42.4° N 26.2° E Sofia 67 33 Northwest 2.6 Schism between Catholic and Orthodox; Norman conquest
1200 65.71 18.38 43.8° N 24.9° E Bucharest 74 26 Northwest 2.0 Papal and monastic reform; Crusades
1300 83.91 23.18 44.5° N 22.9° E Sardica 77 23 Northwest 1.8 Nestorians grow under Pax Mongolia; Franciscans and Dominicans
1400 56.73 16.10 45.8° N 19.7° E Belgrade 85 15 Northwest 2.9 Black Death in Europe, Tamerlane wipes out Church of the East
1500 75.89 17.94 47.3° N 18.0° E Budapest 92 8 Northwest 2.1 Conquistadors and missionaries arrive in the Americas
1600 100.44 18.40 46.1° N 15.2° E Zagreb 91 9 Southwest 2.6 Roman Catholic missions to India, China, and Japan
1700 130.11 21.34 44.4° N 12.7° E Ravenna 86 14 Southwest 2.7 Christianity grows in the Americas; Muslim states declining
1800 204.98 22.68 44.4° N 10.0° E La Spezia 87 13 West 2.1 Protestant and Anglican missions gain momentum
1900 558.14 34.46 41.1° N 3.6° W Madrid 83 17 Southwest 11.7 Latourette's Great Century; new churches in Africa and Asia
1970 1'236.38 33.45 26.5° N 13.2° W El Aaiun 58 42 Southwest 16.3 Churches declining in Europe but mushrooming in Africa and Asia
2000 1'999.56 33.02 21.1° N 3.7° W Timbuktu 42 58 Southeast 19.0 Independent churches in China and India grow
2025 2'626.66 33.45 17.5° N 0.0° Gao 33 67 Southeast 7.2 Southern churches (of all kinds) continue to grow
2050 3'051.55 34.25 14.8° N 3.1° E Niamey 27 73 Southeast 8.4 Europe and Australia secular; Southern Christians move to the North
2100 3'583.00 35.44 13.0° N 6.1° E Sokoto 22 78 Southeast 3.9 Vast majority of Christians in Africa, Asia, Latin America, Oceania
Notes.
1. Columns 4 and 5 are calculated using data in Table 2 on the numbers of Christians in each of the 21 current United Nations regions.
2. Latitude and longitude in Columns 4 and 5 are expressed as decimals (for use in calculations); thus 40.5° N refers to 40 degrees, 30 minutes North latitude.
3. Closest settlement in Column 6 refers to locations in existence in the date in Column 1 near the geographic center in Columns 4 and 5.
4. Columns 7 and 8 are represented as an area graph in Graph 1. North is defined by 5 UN regions that comprise Europe and Northern America;
South as 16 UN regions in Asia, Africa, Latin America, and Oceania.
5. Columns 2-8 refer exactly to the date in Column 1 whereas Columns 9-11 refer to the period leading up to that date.
International Review of Mission Vol. 93 No. 369, April 2004
180
Table 2. Number of Christians in millions by UN Region and by North/South dichotomy, AD 33-AD 1400 (continued on next page)
Geographic center Year
UN Region Lat Lon 33 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400
THE "NORTH"
EUROPE
Eastern Europe 55° N 40° E _0.01 0.10 0.30 0.70 1.00 1.40 1.70 2.30 2.70 5.00 8.00 11.50 14.20 13.50
Northern Europe 60° N 10° E _0.01 0.10 0.20 0.40 0.70 0.80 0.85 0.90 1.20 2.60 3.50 4.80 6.30 4.70
Southern Europe 40° N 10° E _0.25 1.60 4.00 7.80 9.40 8.00 7.00 7.50 8.00 10.00 12.00 15.00 19.50 14.00
Western Europe 50° N 5° E _0.04 0.15 0.60 1.20 2.70 4.20 6.00 7.20 7.50 8.50 11.50 17.00 25.00 16.00
NORTHERN AMERICA
Northern America 40° N 100° W _______________
Total in NORTH 0.00 0.31 1.95 5.10 10.10 13.80 14.40 15.55 17.90 19.40 26.10 35.00 48.30 65.00 48.20
THE "SOUTH"
AFRICA
Eastern Africa 4° S 40° E ___0.01 0.30 0.50 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.70
Middle Africa 0° 20° E _______________
Northern Africa 30° N 10° E _0.09 0.91 3.00 3.92 5.00 5.30 4.80 3.45 2.01 1.06 1.10 1.10 1.00 1.00
Southern Africa 25° S 25° E _______________
Western Africa 10° N 0° ________
0.01 0.01 _____
ASIA
Eastern Asia 35° N 110° E _______
0.01 0.30 0.50 0.10 0.05 0.60 0.80 0.01
South-central Asia 30° N 70° E _0.20 0.80 2.40 4.00 10.90 12.00 11.00 9.00 8.50 7.00 7.30 7.50 7.70 0.80
South-eastern Asia 5° N 110° E _______
0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.02
Western Asia 33° N 35° E 0.01 0.20 1.00 3.50 7.00 7.60 8.20 8.60 9.50 9.60 9.50 7.50 7.00 8.00 5.00
LATIN AMERICA
Caribbean 20° N 70° W _______________
Central America 20° N 110° W _______________
South America 20° S 60° W _______________
OCEANIA
Australia/New Zealand 30° S 150° E _______________
Melanesia 15° S 170° E _______________
Micronesia 10° N 150° E _______________
Polynesia 20° S 160° W _______________
Total in SOUTH 0.01 0.49 2.71 8.91 15.22 24.00 26.00 25.02 22.97 21.43 18.57 16.96 17.41 18.91 8.53
Global Total 0.01 0.80 4.66 14.01 25.32 37.80 40.40 40.57 40.87 40.83 44.67 51.96 65.71 83.91 56.73
Notes.
1. The methodology employed in this article is based on the United Nations' definitions and statistics of the world divided under 6 continents and 21 regions, as shown
above in the first column. The United Nations also utilizes the North/South dichotomy defining the North as Europe and Northern America and the South as Africa, Asia,
Latin America, and Oceania. The geographic center of the North ranges from 40-60° North and the South from 35°N southwards.
2. For each year the UN region with the highest number of Christians is highlighted. A dash signifies no Christians in that year.
Source: D.B. Barrett and T.M. Johnson, Table 7-2, World Christian Trends, William Carey Library, 2001, pp.319-334.
Todd M. Johnson/Sun Young Chung Tra cking Christianity’s Centre
181
Table 2. (continued) Number of Christians in millions by UN Region and by North/South dichotomy, AD 1500-AD 2100
Geographic center Year
UN Region Year Lat Lon 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 1970 2000 2025 2050 2100
THE "NORTH"
EUROPE
Eastern Europe 55° N 40° E 19.80 24.00 32.00 56.00 151.94 158.20 220.27 229.85 212.11 205.00
Northern Europe 60° N 10° E 6.90 8.50 12.30 21.70 56.89 75.76 78.31 78.10 70.54 67.00
Southern Europe 40° N 10° E 19.00 25.50 26.50 39.00 68.54 112.24 120.92 110.78 91.96 83.00
Western Europe 50° N 5° E 24.00 33.00 41.00 55.00 103.27 146.50 140.14 135.86 118.11 110.00
NORTHERN AMERICA
Northern America 40° N 100° W __0.40 5.60 78.81 211.42 260.62 290.35 300.68 310.00
Total in NORTH 69.70 91.00 112.20 177.30 459.45 704.11 820.27 844.93 793.41 775.00
THE "SOUTH"
AFRICA
Eastern Africa 4° S 40° E1.80 2.00 2.50 3.00 4.52 55.45 151.12 271.31 389.13 550.00
Middle Africa 0° 20° E 0.01 0.02 0.04 0.08 0.19 30.29 78.08 156.49 237.10 335.00
Northern Africa 30° N 10° E 1.00 0.80 0.70 0.85 2.70 8.00 15.86 23.13 29.99 37.00
Southern Africa 25° S 25° E __0.02 0.10 2.06 19.26 38.96 46.78 55.09 61.50
Western Africa 10° N 0° 0.03 0.08 0.15 0.30 0.47 30.82 76.21 136.10 191.90 260.00
ASIA
Eastern Asia 35° N 110° E 0.01 0.10 0.40 0.30 2.17 11.59 114.66 166.08 202.33 240.00
South-Central Asia 30° N 70° E 0.20 0.40 1.00 0.85 4.60 30.01 73.68 115.37 148.36 185.00
South-eastern Asia5° N 110° E 0.02 0.20 1.00 2.20 8.39 53.70 111.03 164.44 210.84 250.00
Western Asia 33° N 35° E 3.00 3.30 3.80 5.00 6.74 6.10 13.48 18.91 23.18 26.00
LATIN AMERICA
Caribbean 20° N 70° W 0.02 0.04 0.30 1.70 6.72 19.58 30.05 38.19 42.37 46.50
Central America 20° N 110° W _1.00 3.00 5.00 17.77 66.26 130.21 179.74 209.65 237.00
South America 20° S 60° W0.10 1.50 5.00 8.20 37.52 183.36 320.84 423.18 482.42 540.00
OCEANIA
Australia/New Zealand 30° S 150° E ___0.08 4.44 14.33 18.20 21.17 21.85 23.00
Melanesia 15° S 170° E ____0.22 2.88 5.82 9.13 11.72 14.30
Micronesia 10° N 150° E ___0.01 0.06 0.24 0.51 0.88 1.20 1.52
Polynesia 20° S 160° W ___0.01 0.11 0.40 0.58 0.83 1.02 1.18
Total in SOUTH6.198.44 17.91 27.68 98.68 532.261'179.29 1'771.73 2'258.15 2'808.00
Global Total 75.89 99.44 130.11 204.98 558.14 1'236.38 1'999.56 2'616.66 3'051.55 3'583.00
Note: See previous page under Table 2.
Source: D.B. Barrett and T.M. Johnson, Table 7-2, World Christian Trends, William Carey Library, 2001, pp.319-334.
