No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Analyzing Spatial Drivers in Quantitative Conflict Studies: The Potential and Challenges of Geographic Information Systems
Abstract
The objective of this literature review is to understand where Graphical Information Systems (GIS) can be useful to address security issues and how it has been used until now. While the geographic drivers of territorial conflicts have been extensively described by a number of political studies, the quantitative analysis of these drivers is quite new. This study traces an evolution from conceptual research to quantitative development. It then discusses the advantages and challenges of applying new geographic techniques to analyze spatial drivers of conflict. We identify the main spatial components in conflict and security, the existing types of information/data and the quantitative methods used. We describe the spatial component of security by looking at: (i) the main sociopolitical concepts linked to territory, (ii) the kind of geographic concepts linked to territory, (iii) measures used to describe such geographic concepts; and (iv) the issues raised in any attempt to integrate geographic concepts into a GIS. We conclude that GIS tools can be useful in the analysis of civil disputes, particularly where subnational level data exists. This paper shows that spatial processing tools in GIS allow us to represent some spatial components and to address new issues such as the fuzzy complexity of border permeability.
... Analogous to social network analysis that enhances conflict studies by integrating network dynamics, geographic information systems (GIS) offer techniques for refining these studies through the incorporation of spatial data into the analysis (Branch, 2016). Although spatial relationships have often been analyzed in a general way in qualitative conflict research, the recent advances in computing power and the increasing availability of disaggregated and high-resolution spatial data have enabled more sophisticated and quantitative studies (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). Despite these advances, introducing the spatial dimension to conflict research still poses several challenges: Practical, because of the lack of high quality open-source GIS software tools and the lack of educational training in spatial methods and programming; Theoretical, related to different aspects of the definition of "space," such as choosing spatial units and the appropriate resolution for analysis, as well as the right measure of distance; and Statistical, because of the dependent nature of spatial units of analysis and their interaction with time ( Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). ...
... Although spatial relationships have often been analyzed in a general way in qualitative conflict research, the recent advances in computing power and the increasing availability of disaggregated and high-resolution spatial data have enabled more sophisticated and quantitative studies (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). Despite these advances, introducing the spatial dimension to conflict research still poses several challenges: Practical, because of the lack of high quality open-source GIS software tools and the lack of educational training in spatial methods and programming; Theoretical, related to different aspects of the definition of "space," such as choosing spatial units and the appropriate resolution for analysis, as well as the right measure of distance; and Statistical, because of the dependent nature of spatial units of analysis and their interaction with time ( Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). ...
This open access book brings together a set of original studies that use cutting-edge computational methods to investigate conflict at various geographic scales and degrees of intensity and violence. Methodologically, this book covers a variety of computational approaches from text mining and machine learning to agent-based modelling and social network analysis.
Empirical cases range from migration policy framing in North America and street protests in Iran to violence against civilians in Congo and food riots world-wide.
Supplementary materials in the book include a comprehensive list of the datasets on conflict and dissent, as well as resources to online repositories where the annotated code and data of individual chapters can be found and where (agent-based) models can be re-produced and altered. These materials are a valuable resource for those wishing to retrace and learn from the analyses described in this volume and adapt and apply them to their own research interests.
By bringing together novel research through an international team of scholars from a range of disciplines, Computational Conflict Research pioneers and maps this emerging field. The book will appeal to students, scholars, and anyone interested in the prospects of using computational social sciences to advance our understanding of conflict dynamics.
... Analogous to social network analysis that enhances conflict studies by integrating network dynamics, geographic information systems (GIS) offer techniques for refining these studies through the incorporation of spatial data into the analysis (Branch, 2016). Although spatial relationships have often been analyzed in a general way in qualitative conflict research, the recent advances in computing power and the increasing availability of disaggregated and high-resolution spatial data have enabled more sophisticated and quantitative studies (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). Despite these advances, introducing the spatial dimension to conflict research still poses several challenges: Practical, because of the lack of high quality open-source GIS software tools and the lack of educational training in spatial methods and programming; Theoretical, related to different aspects of the definition of "space," such as choosing spatial units and the appropriate resolution for analysis, as well as the right measure of distance; and Statistical, because of the dependent nature of spatial units of analysis and their interaction with time (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). ...
... Although spatial relationships have often been analyzed in a general way in qualitative conflict research, the recent advances in computing power and the increasing availability of disaggregated and high-resolution spatial data have enabled more sophisticated and quantitative studies (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). Despite these advances, introducing the spatial dimension to conflict research still poses several challenges: Practical, because of the lack of high quality open-source GIS software tools and the lack of educational training in spatial methods and programming; Theoretical, related to different aspects of the definition of "space," such as choosing spatial units and the appropriate resolution for analysis, as well as the right measure of distance; and Statistical, because of the dependent nature of spatial units of analysis and their interaction with time (Stephenne et al., 2009;Gleditsch and Weidmann, 2012). ...
Conflict, from small-scale verbal disputes to large-scale violent war between nations, is one of the most fundamental elements of social life and a central topic in social science research. The main argument of this book is that computational approaches have enormous potential to advance conflict research, e.g., by making use of the ever-growing computer processing power to model complex conflict dynamics, by drawing on innovative methods from simulation to machine learning, and by building on vast quantities of conflict-related data that emerge at unprecedented scale in the digital age. Our goal is (a) to demonstrate how such computational approaches can be used to improve our understanding of conflict at any scale and (b) to call for the consolidation of computational conflict research as a unified field of research that collectively aims to gather such insights. We first give an overview of how various computational approaches have already impacted on conflict research and then guide through the different chapters that form part of this book. Finally, we propose to map the field of computational conflict research by positioning studies in a two-dimensional space depending on the intensity of the analyzed conflict and the chosen computational approach.
... Spatial relations also play an important role in shaping the behavior of subnational actors. In the literature on civil conflict, interactions among actors like insurgent organizations, local governments, and civilian are critically shaped by their geographic territory, strongholds, and the hot-spots of conflict zones (Stephenne et al., 2009). ...
Political actors often interact spatially, and move around. However, with a few exceptions, existing political research has analyzed spatial dependence among actors with fixed geographic locations. Focusing on fixated geographic units prevents us from probing dependencies in spatial interaction between spatially dynamic actors, which are common in some areas of political science, such as sub-national conflict studies. In this note, we propose a method to account for spatial dependence in dyadic interactions between moving actors. Our method uses the spatiotemporal histories of dyadic interactions to project locations of future interactions—projected actor locations (PALs). PALs can, in turn, be used to model the likelihood of future dyadic interactions. In a replication and extension of a recent study of subnational conflict, we find that using PALs improves the predictive performance of the model and indicates that there is a clear relationship between actors’ past conflict locations and the likelihood of future conflicts.
... GIS has a wide range of application in different aspects including national security and fuzzy territorial border conflict [2]; underground water quality, water measurement and urban water supply service [3]; observing the physiological activity of a population and taking actions to protect endangered species [4], etc. Implementing GIS into reservoir resettlement will definitely improve the efficiency of migration management work as well as ensure the smooth process of resettlement project. ...
... Współcześnie naukowcy dokonują prób zmierzenia m.in. podobieństw w polityce zagranicznej państw (Signorino, Ritter 1999) albo czynników konfliktogennych do zastosowania w Systemach Informacji Geograficznej (Stephenne, Burnley, Ehrich 2009). Wydaje się, że metody ilościowe w szeroko rozumianej politologii i badaniach geopolitycznych od pewnego czasu zyskują na znaczeniu, a przynajmniej cieszą się stałym poziomem popularności. ...
Niniejszy artykuł stanowi przyczynek do tytułowego problemu, dotychczas niepodjętego przez badaczy geopolityki. W tekście zawarto rozważania nawiązujące do dwóch pytań: dlaczego warto podjąć tytu-łowy problem? oraz: jakie mogą być ścieżki metodologiczne w tego typu badaniach? W artykule zasygnalizowano problem badawczy, przedstawiono niektóre sugerowane drogi jego rozwiązania, jednakże bez ambicji sformułowania konkluzji ostatecznych; celem jest raczej zachęta do dalszej debaty naukowej w tej dziedzinie.
... Within security and conflict research attention is increasingly being paid to space and the spatial analysis of parameters, which play crucial roles either for the onset of violence or in the course of violent conflicts as well as in post conflict situations (c.f. [ Stephenne et al. 2009 ;Kobayashi 2012 ;Chojnacki and Engels 2013 ]). By linking space and conflict both theoretically and empirically, peace and conflict scholars aim to achieve a better understanding of conflict dynamics and to provide policy makers with tools to, at best, prevent or, at least, better manage violent conflicts. ...
Geographic Information Systems (GIS) continue to gain important recognition from disaster practitioners and academic researchers during what is arguably the most publicly visible disaster management phase – disaster response. The broader world of GIS academic research and industry practice for disaster response continues to change. This review article inventories the current state-of-the-art in GIS for disaster response and demonstrates progress in the data and people aspects of GIS for disaster response since previous literature reviews. The review is structured to serve as a metaphorical bridge between two reader groups – disaster management practitioners interested in understanding developing trends in GIS for disaster response and academic researchers with minimal to no understanding of GIS and/or mapping concepts within the disaster response context. With this readership in mind, we outline definitions of GIS, disaster response and the need for GIS in disaster response, review interdisciplinary literature from a variety of spatially-oriented disaster management fields and demonstrate progress in various aspects of GIS for disaster response. The review concludes with a GIS for disaster response research agenda and provides a list of resources for researchers new to GIS and spatial perspectives for disaster management research.
... For a review of spatial drivers in conflict studies, please seeStephenne, Burnley, and Ehrlich (2009). 90 J. YILDIRIM AND N. ÖCAL Downloaded by [Orta Dogu Teknik Universitesi] at 00:00 14 January 2016 ...
The relationship between economic growth and military expenditure has been the subject of a large literature in defence economics. This study analyses the influence of military expenditures on economic growth in a global perspective for the time period 2000-2010 taking spatial dimension into account. The augmented Solow model is employed to investigate the defence-growth nexus using the cross-sectional data relating to 128 countries. Following a traditional regression analysis, spatial variations in the relationships are examined utilizing different spatial econometric specifications estimated by maximum likelihood. The regressions are compared with each other via likelihood ratio tests, and the spatial Durbin model is found to be the most appropriate one suggesting that the typical least-squares model is misspecified. Empirical evidence indicates that military expenditure has a positive effect on economic growth with a significant spatial dependence for the time period under consideration.
This paper presents modeling conflict dynamics in Africa based on attributes and events of spatiotemporal ACLED dataset from January 2017 to March 2022. GIS and robust poisson regression model are considered to determine the hotspot zones and capture the relationship between various attributes and intensity of conflicts. The result finds (1) a strong spatial and temporal effects to the outbreak of multiple conflicts in Africa verifying the existence of spatial correlation. There is an evidence (2) that the spatial distribution of intensity of conflicts clustering to the Northern and Eastern regions, while in 2021 a sever intensity of conflicts recorded compared with 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2022. The study also finds that (3) the existance of a significant difference of intensity of conflicts by the event type and event subtype (Fvalue=178.8,Pvalue=0.000)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(F_{value} = 178.8,P_{value} = 0.000)$$\end{document}, while the Bonferroni test confirmed that (4) all forms of event type were significantly different in contributing to the occurrence of intensity of conflicts except riots with strategic government development, government strategic development with protests, and violence against civilians with remote violence or explosions. Somalia and South Sudan were identified as the hotspot zones of intensity of conflicts from the Eastern region, Nigeria and Mali were the two top countries from the northern region. Similarly, the result shows that battles and violence against civilians were the major event type, while armed clashes and attacks were the two predominant event subtype in Africa. The findings shows that time β=0.1129,Pvalue=0.000\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$\left( {\beta = {0}{\text{.1129}},P_{{value = {0}{\text{.000}}}} } \right)$$\end{document}, interaction (β=-0.1161,Pvalue=0.000)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\beta = - 0.1161,P_{value = 0.000} )$$\end{document}, latitude (β=-0.0022,Pvalue=0.000)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\beta = - 0.0022,P_{value = 0.000} )$$\end{document}, longitude (β=0.0164,Pvalue=0.000)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(\beta = 0.0164,P_{value = 0.000} )$$\end{document} and geoprecision (Fvalue=178.8,Pvalue=0.000)\documentclass[12pt]{minimal} \usepackage{amsmath} \usepackage{wasysym} \usepackage{amsfonts} \usepackage{amssymb} \usepackage{amsbsy} \usepackage{mathrsfs} \usepackage{upgreek} \setlength{\oddsidemargin}{-69pt} \begin{document}$$(F_{value} = 178.8,P_{value} = 0.000)$$\end{document} were significantly associated with the high number of intensity of conflicts in Africa. Africa needs to reduce the intensity of conflicts and focus on the current economic development. Attention in the hotspot areas of conflicts is highly encouraged promoting to African problems to the African solutions.
In conflict studies it has become a trend to link space and conflict theoretically as well as empirically (see e.g. Raleigh et al. 2010; Stephenne et al. 2009; Wucherpfennig et al. 2011). So far, however, few substantial arguments have been made that consider how the relationship between space and conflict can enhance our understanding of conflicts. One challenge is that the landscape of theoretical narratives and empirical studies is rather fragmented along the line of different disciplines. Social geographers, political scientists, conflict researchers and development scholars alike suggest that we broaden our understanding of space in order to reflect on the conditions, dynamics and effects of conflict more precisely, without much engagement between these disciplines. One central question discussed in these different bodies of literature is whether space is an external, material condition that influences human action, or whether a different understanding of space is required.
While the rhetoric of cyber war is often exaggerated, there have been recent cases of international conflict in which cyberspace has played a prominent role. In this article, we analyze the impact of cyberspace in the conflict between Russia and Georgia over the disputed territory of South Ossetia in August 2008. We examine the role of strategic communications, information operations, operations in and through cyberspace, and conventional combat to account for the political and military outcomes of the conflict. The August 2008 conflict reveals some emergent issues in cyber warfare that can be generalized for further comparative research: the importance of control over the physical infrastructure of cyberspace, the strategic and tactical importance of information denial, the emergence of cyber-privateering, the unavoidable internationalization of cyber conflicts, and the tendency towards magnifying unanticipated outcomes in cyber conflicts – a phenomenon we call ‘cyclones in cyberspace’.
This paper presents the dataset developed from an NSF-supported project on reconceptualizing borders through the use of geographical information systems (GIS). After presenting an overview of the 301 contiguous land borders which were remeasured in terms of ease of interaction (opportunity), and salience/importance (willingness), the dataset is used to revisit hypotheses dealing with territory and borders, specifically four hypotheses developed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld (1997) from their International Crisis Behavior (ICB) project. The results support the design and purpose of the GIS project of reconceptualizing borders, which breaks away from the dichotomous characterization of states as contiguous or non-contiguous in order to examine the "nature" of borders. Our results do not fit the expectations of the "standard" adversarial proximity conflict model, and demonstrate that the border reconceptualization presented here can be used to investigate a number of related questions in the study of international politics involving both cooperative processes as well as conflictual ones.
The LandScan Global Population Project produced a worldwide 1998 population database at 30" X 30" resolution for estimating ambient populations at risk. Best available census counts were distributed to cells based on probability coefficients which, in turn, were based on road proximity, slope, land cover, and nighttime lights. LandScan 1998 has been completed for the entire world. Verification and validation (V&V) studies were conducted routinely for all regions and more extensively for Israel, Germany, and the Southwestern United States. Geographic information systems (GIS) were essential for conflation of diverse input variables, computation of probability coefficients, allocation of population to cells, and reconciliation of cell totals with aggregate (usually province) control totals. Remote sensing was an essential source of two input variables–land cover and nighttime lights–and one ancillary database–high-resolution panchromatic imagery–used in V&V of the population model and resulting LandScan database.
Night-time satellite imagery provided by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program's Operational Linescan System (DMSP OLS) is evaluated as a means of estimating the population of all the cities of the world based on their areal extent in the image. A global night-time image product was registered to a dataset of 2000 known city locations with known populations. A relationship between areal extent and city population discovered by Tobler and Nordbeck is identified on a nation by nation basis to estimate the population of the 22 920 urban clusters that exist in the night-time satellite image. The relationship between city population and city areal extent was derived from 1597 city point locations with known population that landed in a 'lit' area of the image. Due to conurbation, these 1597 cities resulted in only 1383 points of analysis for performing regression. When several cities fell into one 'lit' area their populations were summed. The results of this analysis allow for an estimate of the urban population of every nation of the world. By using the known percent of population in urban areas for every nation a total national population was also estimated. The sum of these estimates is a total estimate of the global human population, which in this case was 6.3 billion. This is fairly close to the generally accepted contemporaneous (1997) estimate of the global population which stood at approximately 5.9 billion.
While territory, oil, and water are frequently mentioned as resources likely to promote interstate conflict, diamonds have emerged as a prominent factor in explanations of civil war. In this article, the authors report on a new database on diamond deposits and production and analyze the relationship between diamonds and armed conflict incidence. They find a strong bivariate relationship between diamonds (particularly secondary diamonds) and the onset of civil war. Adding diamond dummies to standard models of civil war, the results are more mixed. The production of secondary diamonds increases the risk of onset of ethnic war, but not other types of war. The authors find evidence that secondary diamonds are positively related to the incidence of civil war, especially in countries divided along ethnic lines. Primary diamonds, on the other hand, make ethnic war onset and incidence less likely. The authors also find that the impact of diamonds has been substantially stronger in the post-cold war era.
This article is an attempt to indicate how diffusion approaches, based on the concepts of linkage and interdependence, can be of help in our thinking about the spread of democracy. The analyses address the existence or absence of diffusion effects in regard to changes in the degree of freedom in the world's governments, and whether or not there has been a more specific global movement towards democracy. The dependent variable is the set of “governmental transitions,” based on yearly Freedom House data. Diffusion analyses are at the global, regional, and neighbor-state levels (1974-1987). Thus analysis is limited to cues or prototypes from the external environment of states. Although neighbor effects are less than those found with the diffusion of war, all three levels support the proposition that there has been a diffusion of governmental transitions, including a movement towards democracy that provided a context for the dramatic events of 1988 and 1989.
Geographical factors play a critical role in determining how a civil war is fought and who will prevail. Drawing on the PRIO/Uppsala Armed Conflict dataset covering the period 1946-2000, the authors have determined the location of all battle-zones for all civil wars in this time period, thereby identifying the geographic extent and the center point of each conflict. Using ordinary least squares (OLS) and three-stage least squares (3SLS) estimation techniques, factors are analyzed that determine the scope of the conflict (area of the conflict zone) and the location of the conflict relative to the capital. It is found that in addition to geographical factors such as the total land area of the country, scope is strongly shaped by such factors as the adjacencies of a border of a neighboring country, the incidence of natural resources in the conflict zone, and the duration of the conflict. The distance of the conflict zone from the capital is influenced by the scope of the conflict, the size of the country, whether or not the objective of the rebels is to secede, and whether or not the rebel group has a religious or ethnic identity. Also, evidence is found of an endogenous relationship between scope and location.
geoplitical division;geoplitics;political geography;borders;power
GIS eased into geography without much discord until the 1990s, when a flurry of commentaries about the relative merits of GIS made their way into a number of geographic journals. The ensuing decade was marked by varying degrees of friction between GIS practi- tioners and their critics in human geography. Despite the methodological chasm between the two groups, little discussion of the implications of these differences has ensued. This article fills that gap with a historiographic examination of critiques of GIS. Critiques of GIS are organized into three waves or periods, each characterized by distinct arguments. The first wave, from 1990 to 1994, was marked by the intensity of debate as well as an emphasis on positivism. By 1995, the conversation waned as the number of critics grew, while GIS practitioners increasingly declined comment. This second wave marked the initiation of a greater degree of co-operation between GIS scholars and their critics, however. With the inception of the National Center for Geographic Information Analysis (NCGIA) Initiative 19, intended to study the social effects of GIS, many critics began to work closely with their peers in GIS. In the third wave, critiques of GIS expressed a greater commitment to the technology. Throughout the decade, debates about the technology shifted from simple attacks on positivism to incorporating more subtle analyses of the effects of the technology. These critiques have had considerable effect on the academic GIS community but are presently constrained by limited communication with GIS practitioners because of the absence of a common vocabulary. I argue that, if critiques of GIS are to be effective, they must find a way to address GIS researchers, using the language and conceptual framework of the discipline.
Given the general neglect of space and place in the study of conflict and conflict processes- especially in contrast to the temporal context- this article makes a plea for a more explicit and extensive attention to the spatial contexts of social phenomena. In so doing, the paper discusses the importance of space, the relationship between space and time, how space and spatiality can be studied, and the continuing challenges that come with the study of space, and of combining the study of space and time in our analyses of social phenomena.
Abstract Violent conflict is increasingly,viewed,as a factor related to sustainable,development.,This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that aÄect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, aÄects these variables. The theory is tested with a system,dynamics,model,that includes,international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show,a number,of situations in which,conflict is perpetuated in a cycle that is diÅcult to break. * , 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Syst. Dyn. Rev. 14, 129‐162, (1998) Security, sustainability, and violent conflict Increasingly, matters related to security and stability are recognized as relevant
Several EU policy papers have called for an improved dialogue between security policymakers, social science researchers and science and technology researchers working on security (Pullinger, 2006). To increase the understanding of gender dimensions in security, the traditional technological response can be complemented by socio-political knowledge. Gender inequities in the socio-economic and political spheres can be analysed by such a comprehensive socio-political and technological approach. In the field of geo-spatial security research, Hyndman (2004) proposes to bridge a gap between gender studies and geographical analysis of security. In this paper, a workshop is used to illustrate both the potential and the difficulties of such a collaborative and interdisciplinary approach. The workshop aim was to define a geographical and spatial analysis of gender dimensions in security. This paper discusses the gender dimensions in geo-spatial analysis, as well as the pros and cons of an interdisciplinary approach. Integrating the overall complexity of gender dimensions as a spatial component in
Demographic and environmental factors have claimed a dominant position in the post-Cold War security discourse. A main proponent of what can be called a neo-Malthusian conflict scenario, Thomas Homer-Dixon, has argued that population pressure on natural renewable resources make societies more prone to armed conflict and civil war. While previous empirical work in this field mostly count case studies, this article builds on a quantitative analysis of a cross-national time-series for the past 50 years. The results seriously undermine the neo-Malthusian position: countries experiencing great population growth, high population density relative to potential cropland, or large refugee populations do not seem to be particularly conflict prone. Moreover, there are no signs that we have entered a 'new era of insecurity' with changing conflict patterns since the end of the Cold War.
Despite the progress in critical geographic information systems (GIS) research in recentyears [1], geographical discourse is still dominated by dualist thinking that understandsGIS largely as a tool for quantitative or empiricist spatial analysis. This dualistunderstanding of geographical methods—which was partly fuelled by the ” erce polemicsbetween critical geographers and GIS users/researchers sparked off in the early 1990s—has represented GIS as a method antagonistic towards critical perspectives and made itdif” cult for geographers to conceive a role for GIS in critical geographic research [2].Strangely, while feminist geographers have made a signi” cant contribution in refreshingour understanding of the role of quantitative methods in geographical research (e.g.Lawson, 1995; Mattingly & Falconer-Al-Hindi, 1995; McLafferty, 1995; Moss, 1995;Rocheleau, 1995), little has been written to date on the possible role of GIS in feministresearch.In this article, I re‘ ect upon the implications of the critical discourse on GIS in the1990s for feminist geographic research. I argue that the oppositional polemics of thedebate have unintentionally marginalized the contribution of feminist GIS user/re-searchers and the potential of feminist perspectives for the development of feminist GISpractices. I emphasize the need to go beyond the conventional understanding of GIS aslargely a quantitative practice and to recognize the potential of such realization fordisrupting the rigid distinction between quantitative and qualitative methods in geo-graphic research. Extending Gillian Rose’ s (2001) exposition on critical visual method-ologies to GIS-created images, I suggest that GIS may be a possible point of departurefor enacting critical visual methods in feminist geography. Further, I argue thatacknowledging the critical agency and subjectivities of the GIS user/researcher, and thepossibility for GIS to be practiced in a more re‘ exive manner than we previously thoughtpossible, would open up new discursive spaces for subverting dominant GIS practicesand the power of the oppositional discourse (a` la Gibson-Graham, 1994). While recentfeminist and critical GIS literatures have explored some of these issues (e.g. epistemolo-gies and re‘ exivity), the article foregrounds the critical insights from these literatures inthe context of feminist geographic research. It calls for the engagement of feministgeographers in resisting dominant GIS practices and in reimagining alternative practicesthat are congenial to feminist epistemologies and politics.
Our world of increasing and varied conflicts is confusing and threatening to citizens of all countries, as they try to understand its causes and consequences. However, how and why war occurs, and peace is sustained, cannot be understood without realizing that those who make war and peace must negotiate a complex world political map of sovereign spaces, borders, networks of communication, access to nested geographic scales, and patterns of resource distribution. This book takes advantage of a diversity of geographic perspectives as it analyzes the political processes of war and their spatial expression. Contributors to the volume examine particular manifestations of war in light of nationalism, religion, gender identities, state ideology, border formation, genocide, spatial rhetoric, terrorism, and a variety of resource conflicts. The final section on the geography of peace covers peace movements, diplomacy, the expansion of NATO, and the geography of post-war reconstruction. Case studies of numerous conflicts include Israel and Palestine, Afghanistan, Northern Ireland, Bosnia-Herzogovina, West Africa, and the attacks of September 11, 2001.
Violent conflict is increasingly viewed as a factor related to sustainable development. This article argues, based on the well-established theory of lateral pressure originally proposed by Choucri and North in 1975, that the relationship arises because the same factors that affect sustainable development also influence conflict, namely population, technology, resources, military force, and trade and bargaining, while conflict, in turn, affects these variables. The theory is tested with a system dynamics model that includes international as well as domestic violent conflict, calibrated to seven countries in southern Africa and six OECD countries. The results show a number of situations in which con flict is perpetuated in a cycle that is difficult to break.
This book addresses the role of GIS in its social context. Contributors assess ideas and practices that have emerged amongst users of GIS, demonstrating how they reflect the material and political interests of certain groups. The contributors also discuss the impact of new GIS technologies on the discipline of geography and evaluate the role of GIS within the wider context of the free market. The chapters include detailed case studies of the societal and disciplinary roles being played by the various technologies of surveillance currently deployed. The ethical implications of the dissemination of electronic imagery and spatial representation are also discussed. The decentralising effect of mass electronic communication in terms of social and political control is highlighted. Specific chapters cover: GIS and geographic research; computer innovation and adoption in geography; the strategic discourse of geodemographic information systems in a modern marketing context; the redressing of South Africa's historical political ecology through participatory GIS, and a concluding chapter which envisages the development of an economy dominated by electronic representation and the virtual image. -after Editor
The abstract for this document is available on CSA Illumina.To view the Abstract, click the Abstract button above the document title.
The Earth's human population is expected to pass eight billion by the year 2025, while rapid growth in the global economy will spur ever increasing demands for natural resources. The world will consequently face growing scarcities of such vital renewable resources as cropland, fresh water, and forests. Thomas Homer-Dixon argues in this sobering book that these environmental scarcities will have profound social consequences--contributing to insurrections, ethnic clashes, urban unrest, and other forms of civil violence, especially in the developing world. Homer-Dixon synthesizes work from a wide range of international research projects to develop a detailed model of the sources of environmental scarcity. He refers to water shortages in China, population growth in sub-Saharan Africa, and land distribution in Mexico, for example, to show that scarcities stem from the degradation and depletion of renewable resources, the increased demand for these resources, and/or their unequal distribution. He shows that these scarcities can lead to deepened poverty, large-scale migrations, sharpened social cleavages, and weakened institutions. And he describes the kinds of violence that can result from these social effects, arguing that conflicts in Chiapas, Mexico and ongoing turmoil in many African and Asian countries, for instance, are already partly a consequence of scarcity. Homer-Dixon is careful to point out that the effects of environmental scarcity are indirect and act in combination with other social, political, and economic stresses. He also acknowledges that human ingenuity can reduce the likelihood of conflict, particularly in countries with efficient markets, capable states, and an educated populace. But he argues that the violent consequences of scarcity should not be underestimated--especially when about half the world's population depends directly on local renewables for their day-to-day well-being. In the next decades, he writes, growing scarcities will affect billions of people with unprecedented severity and at an unparalleled scale and pace. Clearly written and forcefully argued, this book will become the standard work on the complex relationship between environmental scarcities and human violence.
territory;human territoriality;social constructs;state territoriality;sovereignty
Today's imperial ideology proclaims that the United States is the new city on the hill, the capital of an empire dominating the globe. Yet the U.S. global empire, we are nonetheless told, is not an empire of capital; it has nothing to do with economic imperialism as classically defined by Marxists and others. The question then arises: How is this new imperial age conceived by those promoting it? This article can also be found at the Monthly Review website, where most recent articles are published in full.
Click here to purchase a PDF version of this article at the Monthly Review website.
We investigate the causes of civil war, using a new data set of wars during 1960-99. Rebellion may be explained by atypically severe grievances, such as high inequality, a lack of political rights, or ethnic and religious divisions in society. Alternatively, it might be explained by atypical opportunities for building a rebel organization. While it is difficult to find proxies for grievances and opportunities, we find that political and social variables that are most obviously related to grievances have little explanatory power. By contrast, economic variables, which could proxy some grievances but are perhaps more obviously related to the viability of rebellion, provide considerably more explanatory power.
between the frequency of wars and the size of wars may be derived on the basis of geographical opportunity alone. It is, of course, reasonable to expect geographical opportunity to affect the frequency of wars, since the frequency of wars between neighboring countries is greater than the frequency of wars between countries widely separated geographically. A man is much more likely to quarrel with his next-door neighbor than with someone several houses removed. Interactions of all sorts, both constructive as well as destructive, are more frequent between people in adjacent areas than between those widely separated geographically. If war is more likely betveen neighboring countries, then the frequency of wars experienced by a particular country should correlate with the number of neighbors the country has. Lewis Fry Richardson (1960, p. 176), showed that this was indeed the case. He found that the number of external
While international borders are important in understanding the “shape” of the international system and are part of those structural characteristics which affect the interaction opportunities of nations, little attention has been paid to their conceptualization, operationalization, and measurement. This paper undertakes four tasks to help fill this gap. The first is to indicate the potentially theoretical role that borders may play in international relations, discussing the relationships between distance/contiguity and interaction opportunities. The second task entails the conceptualization and measurement of international borders. The third task involves using the data derived from this framework to describe the international system in terms of borders for the period 1946‐1965. The fourth task is to indicate the utility of a border data set by addressing questions which have been posed in the international relations literature. Research results are presented for several questions concerning the relationships between borders and war, borders and alliances, and the diffusion of war.
Richard H. Ullman, Professor of International Affairs at Princeton University's Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, spent the 1982-83 academic year as a visiting member of the Institute for Advanced Study.
1. The Leviathan (1651), Part I, Ch. XIII.
2. There is no better place to begin that discussion than Robert Jervis, Perception and Misperception in International Politics (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1976), chapter 3.
3. This is not to say that there are not recriminations following wars or military crises. Indeed, the governments that lead nations when war is thrust upon them—or when they initiate war themselves—are often subject to pillory. It may be alleged that their complacence allowed their nations' defenses to atrophy to a point where their military forces no longer deterred attack. Or they may be accused of recklessness that brought on a needless and expensive war. But while the war is still in prospect, or while it is actually underway, there are too seldom any questions of leaders' abilities to command the requisite resources from their perceptibly threatened countrymen.
4. The same is true, it should be noted, about some "ordinary" foreign threats. In 1975 a majority of Senators and members of Congress did not believe that the presence of Soviet-supported Cuban troops in Angola posed a significant threat to U.S. security, and legislated limits on potential American involvement. Three years earlier they imposed a cutoff on U.S. bombing of targets in Cambodia and North Vietnam on the supposition that continued bombing would no longer (if it ever did) promote U.S. security. For a discussion of these Congressional curbs on the President's ability to commit American military resources, see Thomas M. Franck and Edward Weisband, Foreign Policy By Congress (New York: Oxford University Press, 1979), esp. pp. 13-23 and 46-57.
5. For a recent authoritative study, see An Assessment of the Consequences and Preparations for a Catastrophic California Earthquake: Findings and Actions Taken (Washington: Federal Emergency Management Agency, 1980). For a summary of current estimates, see Richard A. Kerr, "California's Shaking Next Time," Science, Vol. 215 (January 22, 1982), pp. 385-387.
6. The Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) fiscal year 1983 appropriation for civil defense was $147,407,000; for "comprehensive emergency preparedness planning" for earthquakes it was $3,120,000. California's total budgeted expenditure for earthquake safety for fiscal year 1983 was $13,391,000. For a detailed breakdown, see State of California, Seismic Safety Commission, Annual Report to the Governor and the Legislature for July 1981-June 1982 (Sacramento: August 1982), pp. 16-21.
7. The "classic" appeal for a large U.S. civil defense program, based upon hypothesized comparative U.S. and Soviet recovery rates, is T.K. Jones and W. Scott Thompson, "Central War and Civil Defense," Orbis, Vol. 22, No. 3 (Fall 1978), pp. 681-712. For a more recent discussion, see Robert Scheer, With Enough Shovels: Reagan, Bush and Nuclear War (New York: Random House, 1982), pp. 104-119.
The enormous cost is one principal argument against a large-scale U.S. civil defense program. But another relates to strategic doctrine. A civil defense program that promises to offer effective protection might in a crisis invite an enemy first-strike attack. The adversary, so this reasoning runs, would read large-scale civil defenses as indicating that we ourselves were prepared to initiate nuclear war. It would therefore strike at the first sign that we were beginning to move our population into shelters, as we surely would during a severe international crisis. Thus we enhance stability by not opting for civil defenses: the other side knows that since our population is exposed, we would not be likely to initiate nuclear war, and the incentives for them to strike preemptively are thereby reduced.
8. The FEMA study cited above (note 5) estimates that the likely damage from the most probable (but far from the most destructive) major earthquake on the San Andreas fault might be $17 billion, but it indicates that the figure might be low by a factor as high as three (p. 22).
9. The most...
For their empirical evaluation, several active research programs in economics and political science require data on ethnic groups across countries. “Ethnic group,” however, is a slippery concept. After addressing conceptual and practical obstacles, I present a list of 822 ethnic groups in 160 countries that made up at least 1 percent of the country population in the early 1990s. I compare a measure of ethnic fractionalization based on this list with the most commonly used measure. I also construct an index of cultural fractionalization that uses the structural distance between languages as a proxy for the cultural distance between groups in a country.
Quantitative studies of civil war have focused on war initiation (onset) or war duration and termination and produced important insights into these processes. An empirical analysis of civil war prevalence is used to show that the prevalence or amount of war observed at any given time is important. Civil war prevalence is defined as the probability of observing either a new war onset or the continuation of an ongoing war or both. Two economic theories of war onset and duration are combined to estimate the prevalence of civil war across more than 150 countries and over 40 years. The analysis is consistent with the findings of earlier studies on war onset and duration. New findings that result from slight improvements in the data and estimation methods show that democracy and ethnic diversity are significant determinants of civil war prevalence.
It is useful to have a disaggregated population database at uniform grid units in disaster situations. This study presents a method for settlement location probability and population density estimations at a 90 m resolution for northern Iraq using the Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission (SRTM) digital terrain model and Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper satellite imagery. A spatial model each for calculating the probability of settlement location and for estimating population density is described. A randomly selected subset of field data (equivalent to 50%) is first analysed for statistical links between settlement location probability and population density; and various biophysical features which are extracted from Landsat or SRTM data. The model is calibrated using this subset. Settlement location probability is attributed to the distance from roads and water bodies and land cover. Population density can be estimated based upon land cover and topographic features. The Landsat data are processed using a segmentation and subsequent feature–based classification approach making this method robust to seasonal variations in imagery and therefore applicable to a time series of images regardless of acquisition date. The second half of the field data is used to validate the model. Results show a reasonable estimate of population numbers (r = 0.205, p
Natural resources, and diamonds especially, are commonly believed to play a significant role in the onset and duration of armed civil conflict. Although there is ample case study evidence that diamonds and similar resources have been used by rebel groups to finance fighting, there are few systematic empirical studies assessing the role of lootable resources in civil conflict. This is largely due to lack of reliable data on production and location. In this article we discuss priorities for the collection of data on conflict-relevant resources and introduce a new dataset, DIADATA, that provides a comprehensive list of diamond deposits accompanied by geographic coordinates throughout the world. The dataset includes characteristics relevant to conflict such as production status and geological form of the deposit. Particularly important is the distinction between primary and secondary diamonds, because the latter are more easily lootable. The dataset incorporates a spatial as well as a temporal dimension.
In this overview of a new database and approach to measuring distance among historical and contemporary independent nation-states, we review the utility of space to theory and empirical research in international studies. We identify weaknesses in existing empirical data on distances and contiguity among nations. Categorical data on distance treat proximity as an either-or issue and do not permit identifying degree of proximity among states. Continuous measures of distances between midpoints, such as capital cities, often overstate the actual distances between state borders and suffer for large states and irregular territories. We outline a new alternative approach, based on measuring the minimum distance for pairs of polities in the international system, which remedies some of these shortcomings. The current implementation of the minimum-distance database includes the minimum distances for all polities within 950 km of each other from 1875 to the present. We demonstrate the enhanced flexibility of the new minimum-distance approach relative to existing alternatives. Moreover, we illustrate how variables constructed from distance measures, combined with spatial statistical techniques, can contribute substantively to international relations and cross-national comparative research. We demonstrate the importance of dependence among geographical neighbors by examining the link between levels of economic wealth and prospects for democracy in the context of regional interdependence among states.
The discussion reports the results of an examination of the possible diffusion of new war participations during the 1946-65 era. A theoretical argument is developed to yield more precise expectations about when, where, why, and how diffusion processs might operate. Four diffusion-related processes (positive spatial diffusion, positive reinforcement, negative spatial diffusion, and negative reinforcement) are discussed and analyzed. A series of simple turnover tables and a focus on nations' borders are used to go beyond the authors' previous stochastic modeling efforts. The results provide strong evidence that is consistent with both the authors' theoretical argument and the general war diffusion hypothesis. The analyses seem to indicate that certain types of wars may indeed have tended to diffuse across space from one nation to another between 1946 and 1965.
Conflict over scarce resources, such as minerals, fish, water, and particularly territory, is a traditional source of armed struggle. Recently, wideranging claims have been made to the effect that environmental degradation will increase resource scarcity and therefore contribute to an increase in armed conflict. So far, there has been much controversy and little relevant systematic study of this phenomenon. Most scholarship on the relationship between resources, the environment, and armed conflict suffers from one or more of the following problems: (1) there is a lack of clarity over what is meant by `environmental conflict'; (2) researchers engage in definitional and polemical exercises rather than analysis; (3) important variables are neglected, notably political and economic factors which have a strong influence on conflict and mediate the influence of resource and environmental factors; (4) some models become so large and complex that they are virtually untestable; (5) cases are selected on values of the dependent variable; (6) the causality of the relationship is reversed; (7) postulated events in the future are cited as empirical evidence; (8) studies fail to distinguish between foreign and domestic conflict; and (9) confusion reigns about the appropriate level of analysis. While no publications are characterized by all of these problems, many have several of them. This article identifies a few lights in the wilderness and briefly outlines a program of research.
This book charts the incidence of territorial changes and military conflicts from 1816 to 1980. Using statistical and descriptive analysis, the authors attempt to answer three related sets of questions: * When does military conflict accompany the process of national independence? * When do states fight over territorial changes and when are such transactions completed peacefully? * How do territorial changes affect future military conflict between the states involved in the exchange?
