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Intervening Opportunities and Competing Migrants

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... Theoretically, scholars have discussed the underlying mechanisms of network autocorrelation in OD migration data. Stouffer (1940;1960) proposed the intervening opportunities model, arguing that the volume of migration between an origin and a destination is proportional to the number of opportunities at the distance from the origin to the destination and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities between the origin and destination (Stouffer, 1940;1960). The competing destinations model proposed by Fotheringham (1980;1983), however, suggests that migration involves two-stage decision-making. ...
... Theoretically, scholars have discussed the underlying mechanisms of network autocorrelation in OD migration data. Stouffer (1940;1960) proposed the intervening opportunities model, arguing that the volume of migration between an origin and a destination is proportional to the number of opportunities at the distance from the origin to the destination and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities between the origin and destination (Stouffer, 1940;1960). The competing destinations model proposed by Fotheringham (1980;1983), however, suggests that migration involves two-stage decision-making. ...
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In consideration of the issue of network autocorrelation and zero-inflated migration data, the study constructs an eigenvector spatial filtering (ESF) hurdle gravity model (ESF HGM) to examine the determinants of China's skilled and less-skilled internal migrations between 2010 and 2015. In our case, the ESF technique effectively reduces network autocorrelation bias, while the hurdle approach enhances the model prediction on the probability of zeros. Results from the ESF HGM have illustrated significant differences in the determinants between skilled and less-skilled migrations. It is found that the gravity factors (population sizes at origins and destinations; migration distance), regional industrial structure, unemployment rate, and education level are more related to the migration of less-skilled people. However, the migration of skilled people is more affected by the wage disparity, natural comforts, and medical services of a region. Our results have also highlighted the differences in some factors (employment rate; education level at origins) between the probability of having migration and the migration volume.
... Other models that can be found in the literature are intervening opportunities models [51][52][53] and systemic models based on the general theory of movement of [54]. The basic idea behind the intervening-opportunities model is that relocation is directly proportional to the opportunities at the destination and inversely proportional to the number of intervening opportunities between origin and destination zones. ...
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This study empirically analyzes the determinants of regional labor migration in Japan, where small towns are disappearing due to the shortage of labor. Using spatial models of origin–destination flows and considering network effects of labor and economic structures, we obtain results more consistent with the standard migration theory, compared to previous studies. In particular, we find that migration decisions are based on economic motivations and that high (low) unemployment rates in origin (destination) regions and low income in origin regions are important determinants of labor migration flows. Second, we report that network effects, which help reduce migration costs, play a significant role in the relocation of labor. Finally, considering different definitions of spatial weights based on distance, the volume of traded goods, and economic structures, we show that regional dependence is most appropriately defined by the similarity in economic structures. In other words, migration patterns are similar between regions that rely on analogous economic activities.
... Based on reduced birth and death rate, migration (internal or international) has become a more important concern for demographers and other social scientists. Most of the studies in past (Bhagat 2005;Friedlander and Roshier 1966;Greenwood 1971;Isbell 1944;Lee 1966;Singh 1986;Stouffer 1940,1960and Ziff 1946, based on the conceptualization of migration process and the scale of investigations, used macro approach by operating on highly aggregate data for countries, districts, states and the nation as a whole. These types of studies are unable to provide sufficient explanation for the tremendous regional and local heterogeneity. ...
Article
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Migration is the least explored area of population change. The concept of migration involves a series of factors in terms of place of origin and destination, intervening obstacles and personal characteristics. The present paper investigates migration at household level using some statistical models. Which have been tested with the help of primary data collected by the authors in NorthEastern Bihar during the period of (2009-10).
... The flow between two schools may also depend on the extent to which a dyad is spatially isolated from other dyads. A spatially isolated dyad, or pair of schools, will have a greater flow than a dyad that faces many "intervening opportunities" (Stouffer 1940;1960). That is, for any given dyad, when there are more schools between them, we would expect some of those other schools to "syphon off" part of the flow between any two schools. ...
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We investigate student mobility in a choice-based system that has gone to scale, New Orleans, to gain insight into an underlying improvement mechanism of choice-based reform and its potential equity-related consequences. In contrast to typical analyses of mobility, this study distinguishes incumbent school characteristics that can cause students to search for a new school (“push” factors) from those features that can draw families to a new school (“pull” factors). We find evidence consistent with school performance playing both push and pull roles. However, for low-achieving students, the push of low performance at incumbent schools is stronger than the pull of high performance at potential destinations, implying that low-achieving students are more successful in exiting low-performing schools than they are in finding higher-performing schools to attend.
... A pre-requisite is to be able to calculate the number of trips (N ij ) to be generated for each pair of cities. This can be done with any of the existing spatial interaction models [1,17,25,20,21,24]. We layout in the SI our own interpretation of this spatial interaction using the concept of local and weighted centrality measures. ...
Preprint
As part of the effort undertaken to understand urban environments and their generation, we need to explore models that produce statistically valid configurations of roads. These sort of models will help us to derive plausible mechanisms for the spatial location of population. This task is of fundamental importance, as we need to create an experimental environment that allows us to disentangle the specificities of a spatial configuration from the ideal system. Creating statistically valid models of road networks along with models of city generation allows to average the effects of geometry bringing us one step closer to understanding urban environments. To completely understand road networks we need to be able to grasp what principles of economy do their growth entail. It is therefore of interest to explore the possible shape that a performance function would have for transportation systems. In this work, we tackle this issue by proposing a network generation model based on a single parameter $\alpha$ which is capable of creating any type of network from trees to quasi-surfaces and which is shown to generate networks close to the real road networks under study. This is obtained through the definition of local and weighted versions of centrality measures. These centrality measures deal with distance-decay effects and nodes having different masses. We set ourselves to determine the properties and different regimes of this $\alpha$-model and we lay out a definition for the performance of a network taking into account factors such as robustness, construction cost, congestion and distance. We obtain the optimal alpha from the analysis of the space of possible performance functions, giving an intuition on the self-organisational properties of the original network.
... In evaluating theories and models of migration and mobility, it can be observed that there is no unified theory or model for studying migration and mobility; however, there exist a legion of concepts, such as those of Zipf (1946); Stouffer (1960); Claeson (1969); Greenwood (1968); Sjaastad (1962); Gallaway (1967); Harris & Todaro (1970); Mabogunje (1972); Shaw (1978); Massey (1990); and Schoorl (1994) that try to abstract reality in order to generalize. ...
... is relates to the intervening opportunities model of trip distribution. (Cui and Levinson 2019b;Stouffer 1960) ...
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This paper integrates and extends many of the concepts of accessibility deriving from Hansen’s (1959) seminal paper, and develops a theory of access that generalizes from the particular measures of access that have become increasingly common. Access is now measured for a particular place by a particular mode for a particular purpose at a particular time in a particular year. General access is derived as a theoretical ideal that would be measured for all places, all modes, all purposes, at all times, over the lifecycle of a project. It is posited that more general access measures better explain spatial location phenomena.
... Stouffer's theoretical model of intervening opportunities (Stouffer 1960;Galle and Taeuber, 1966); Wadycki, 1975) Migration is above the framework of Ravenstein's laws, via the function of intervening opportunities among other factors. The volume of people's movement over a certain distance is directly proportionate to the number of opportunities in this distance and indirectly proportionate to the number of intervening opportunities. ...
Article
In the research of migration, we can encounter the application of multidisciplinary approaches with the use of knowledge from existing theories, which implies the need for statistical reporting. It is not always easy to determine who a migrant is, and studies exploring migration can be dividing up according to many criteria. Contemporary literature contains a whole score of studies dealing with migration, its determinants and impacts on the economy, etc. However, there are very few studies dealing primarily with regional (i.e. internal) migration in comparison to the number of studies analyzing international migration. The goal of this study is to point out problems in reporting migration and to propose a strategy to analyze migration based on multilevel research of migration while making this strategy applicable to internal migration.
... This framing of distance as a deterrent underpins the notion that migrants will move as short a distance as possible to achieve their (information-constrained) goals (Stouffer, 1960;Ritchey, 1976). As a result, internal migration in an information-constrained environment is likely to be dominated by moves that are as short as possible (and by implication least costly) to satisfy migrants' desires. ...
Preprint
The paper estimates a gravity model to analyse migration in contemporary Namibia, with the specific aim of understanding differences in long and short-distance migration. The sample is restricted to migrants moving in 2010 and 2011, who are between the ages of 20 and 49 years. Given Namibia's history of apartheid-era segregation, the sample is later restricted to African-language speaking migrants to determine whether the distances traveled to satisfy information and finance-constrained needs differ from that of the full population. A zero-inflated negative binomial model is applied to estimate the effects of constituency-level economic indicators, labour market conditions, agricultural activity, and built amenities on migration flows. Regression analysis shows that analyzing internal migration flows in Namibia without accounting for distance-related differences in migrant motivations may produce misleading results. Disaggregation of migration flows by distance reveals that for both the entire population and the restricted African-language speaking sample, constituency differences in amenity quality are significant predictors of intermediate-distance migration volumes. Per capita income differences in favour of the receiving constituency increase long-distance migration volumes. For all distances, previous migration in the sending constituency is a strong positive predictor of migration volumes.
... There is a longstanding history of the study of human mobility patterns, with reliance on census data, which spans the works of Ravestein who focused on migration within the UK [1], Zipf 's intercity P 1 P 2 /D movement [2], the intervening opportunities model [3,4], urban travel demands and regional modeling [5,6], all of which contributed to the understanding of economic processes [7,8], urban planning, traffic engineering [9,10], and the spreading of infectious diseases [11][12][13][14]. At present, the ubiquity of mobile phone usage data and credit card transactions made human mobility more amenable to mathematical analysis, and therefore, lead to the discovery of underlying patterns of motion described as random walks and particularly Lévy flights [15][16][17]. ...
Article
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In this paper, we follow the short-ranged Syrian refugees’ migration to Lebanon as documented by the UNHCR. We propose a model inspired by the Debye–Hückel theory and show that it properly predicts the refugees’ mobility while the gravity model fails. We claim that the interaction between origin cities attenuates and/or extenuates the flux to destinations, and consequently, in analogy with the effective charges of interacting particles in a plasma, these source cities are characterized by effective populations determined by their pairwise remoteness/closeness and defined by areas of control between the fighting parties.
... Dopo questi primi pionieristici lavori, altri autori hanno affrontato il tema della distanza secondo altre prospettive. Samuel A. Stouffer (1940;1960), ad esempio, con riferimento alle migrazioni, considerava che il numero di persone che percorre una certa distanza fosse direttamente proporzionale al numero di opportunità presenti a quella stessa distanza ed inversamente proporzionale al numero delle opportunità che vi si interponevano (vedi anche Freymeyer, Ritchey 1985). Benché lo stesso Stouffer ritenesse che il principio delle 'opportunità interposte' non potesse applicarsi ad alcuni tipi di mobilità, era tuttavia propenso a credere che potesse adattarsi bene ad altri fenomeni sociali, tra i quali egli menzionava esplicitamente la scelta del coniuge (Stouffer 1940, 867). ...
Article
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A man and a woman living close to each other are more likely to get married than two who living far away. In fact, to get to know each other, and then to get married, there must be opportunities to meet. In this paper we identify some factors that determine the geographical distance between the spouses in the Grand Duchy of Tuscany in the mid-19th century. The sources used are the marriage records of the Central Civil Registry Office of the Grand Duchy kept in the State Archives of Florence and collected in a nominative database. Analyses are conducted at individual level using a linear regression model. The main findings show that the distance between spouses increases as the age of marriage grows and is greater among couples at the extremes of the social scale.
... A major challenge with these methods is determining the scale at which to probe spatial variations, noting that populations tend to disperse heterogeneously across space [8]. Extreme spatial inhomogeneity in population density causes inconsistencies in interpretability of results based solely on distance, as the pace of economic activity is largely determined by population [9], and space is primarily relevant insofar as it relates to the number of "intervening opportunities" it provides economic agents with [10]. As a result, various methods have been designed to account for heterogeneous population in the analysis of spatial data, some of which include density-equalizing maps [11] and methods based on dasymetric mapping [12]. ...
Preprint
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Due to its wide reaching implications for everything from identifying hotspots of income inequality to political redistricting, there is a rich body of literature across the sciences quantifying spatial patterns in socioeconomic data. In particular, the variability of indicators relevant to social and economic well-being between localized populations is of great interest, as it pertains to the spatial manifestations of inequality and segregation. However, heterogeneity in population density, sensitivity of statistical analyses to spatial aggregation, and the importance of pre-drawn political boundaries for policy intervention may decrease the efficacy and relevance of existing methods for analyzing spatial socioeconomic data. Additionally, these measures commonly lack either a framework for comparing results for qualitative and quantitative data on the same scale, or a mechanism for generalization to multi-region correlations. To mitigate these issues associated with traditional spatial measures, here we view local deviations in socioeconomic variables from a topological lens rather than a spatial one, and use a novel information theoretic network approach based on the Generalized Jensen Shannon Divergence to distinguish distributional quantities across adjacent regions. We apply our methodology in a series of experiments to study the network of neighboring census tracts in the continental US, quantifying the decay in two-point distributional correlations across the network, examining the county-level socioeconomic disparities induced from the aggregation of tracts, and constructing an algorithm for the division of a city into homogeneous clusters. These results provide a new framework for analyzing the variation of attributes across regional populations, and shed light on new, universal patterns in socioeconomic attributes.
... There are three main types of macro models. First, the basic idea of a gravity model (Zipf [5]; Stouffer [6]; Lowry [7]) is that interregional migration is positively related to the population sizes and economic development levels of the origin and destination regions and inversely related to the distance between these two regions. Second, push-pull migration theory (Lee [8]) holds that the push force of the origin region, the pull force of the destination region and intervening obstacle factors directly influence migration. ...
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China's rapid urbanization has aroused substantial attention all over the world. Though there exists a strong connection between urban system and intercity migration, an overall prediction of China's urban population of all cities based on migration network has rarely been conducted. This study proposes an extended NEG (New Economic Geography) model to simulate China's urban system evolution with actual data and further predicts the future development of China's urban system under three different urbanization scenarios. We discover that China's future development trend is centralized urbanization dominated by large cities with a population of above 1 million. This prediction result is of great significance to provide scientific evidence for China's population flow management and new-type urbanization planning.
... This is also consistent with Ravenstein's idea that migration occurs in stages. Later Stouffer (1960) reformulated this hypothesis adding an additional variable of competing migrants. While intervening opportunities could decrease migration to the destination areas, number competing migrants to the available opportunities in the destination places might reduce wages rather than the magnitude of migration. ...
Preprint
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Migration has been a multi-dimensional phenomenon, and a theoretical understanding of migration is rooted in various disciplines. This paper presents a historical development of theories in the field of migration from the end of 19th Century to the close of 20th Century. The paper highlights there are spatial, economic, behavioral and social theories of migration, but each theory presents a partial view of migration reality. As such, there is no grand theory of migration nor it is necessary. Each theory illuminates a certain aspect of migration, and a combination of theories may be useful to decide the best for public action.
... Moreover, the larger proportion of houseless population in the Kanpur city has migrated from the districts of Eastern Uttar Pradesh rather than Western Uttar Pradesh, because the city itself is part of Eastern Uttar Pradesh. Thus, the models like large number of migrants move to a short distance (Raventein, 1989), gravity or distance decay (Newton, 1729 andStouffer, 1960) i.e. the movement of persons between two centres would be directly proportional to the product of their population and inversely proportional to the square of distance between them (Reilly, 1929 andJames, 1972), power of any area to attract people, goods and information depends on its size of its economic base and distance (Zipf, 1941and 1949, Jones, 1981and Stewart, 1950, etc. have been also proven by this hypothetical model (see Fig. 4). ...
Article
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The author seeks to examine the status of population that ever lived/never lived in the shelter and houses possessed by their relatives, the frequency of chances to live in the shelter after months and years and their circulation between places of origin and Kanpur city, India. The study is based on primary source of data generated through a comprehensive field survey in Kanpur city carried out during 2012. The study reveals that more than four-fifth of the houseless population has lived in the shelter at least once in their whole lives for some time. Likewise, most of the relatives of the houseless population owned the houses and they are not houseless persons, but less than one-fifth of relatives were houseless too somewhere else in the country. Moreover, more than sixty percent of the houseless people have got the chance to live in the shelter either for some months in a year or for few years, while nearly fourty percent of the houseless persons have never got the chance to live in the shelter in their whole lives and are forced to live as permanent pavement dwellers. © 2017 University of Craiova, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. All rights reserved.
... A major challenge with these methods is determining the scale at which to probe spatial variations, noting that populations tend to disperse heterogeneously across space [8]. Extreme spatial inhomogeneity in population density causes inconsistencies in interpretability of results based solely on distance, as the pace of economic activity is largely determined by population [9], and space is primarily relevant insofar as it relates to the number of "intervening opportunities" it provides economic agents with [10]. As a result, various methods have been designed to account for heterogeneous population in the analysis of spatial data, some of which include density-equalizing maps [11] and methods based on dasymetric mapping [12]. ...
Article
Full-text available
Due to its wide reaching implications for everything from identifying hot spots of income inequality to political redistricting, there is a rich body of literature across the sciences quantifying spatial patterns in socioeconomic data. In particular, the variability of indicators relevant to social and economic well-being between localized populations is of great interest, as it pertains to the spatial manifestations of inequality and segregation. However, heterogeneity in population density, sensitivity of statistical analyses to spatial aggregation, and the importance of predrawn political boundaries for policy intervention may decrease the efficacy and relevance of existing methods for analyzing spatial socioeconomic data. Additionally, these measures commonly lack either a framework for comparing results for qualitative and quantitative data on the same scale, or a mechanism for generalization to multiregion correlations. To mitigate these issues associated with traditional spatial measures, here we view local deviations in socioeconomic variables from a topological lens rather than a spatial one, and use an information theoretic network approach based on the generalized Jensen-Shannon divergence to distinguish distributional quantities across adjacent regions. We apply our methodology in a series of experiments to study the network of neighboring census tracts in the continental US, quantifying the decay in two-point distributional correlations across the network, examining the county-level socioeconomic disparities induced from the aggregation of tracts, and constructing an algorithm for the division of a city into homogeneous clusters. These results provide a framework for analyzing the variation of attributes across regional populations and shed light on universal patterns in socioeconomic attributes.
... Using spatial interaction or gravity models, the aim of this approach to analysis is to explain the flow of crime trips between pairs of locations as a function of: 1) the friction between them (such as distance); and, 2) the characteristics of the origin and destination locations that may generate (push) or attract (pull) offending respectively. In alternative derivations, friction is defined in terms of the number of intervening opportunities located at shorter distances (in any direction) than each destination (Stouffer, 1940) or specifically located between the origin and each destination (Stouffer, 1960). Smith (1976) and Elffers et al. (2008) found that spatial interaction models that used distance (rather than intervening opportunities) provided a better fit to their data. ...
Thesis
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The purpose of this thesis is to explore the applications of configurational methods from the fields of graph theory and space syntax and discrete choice methods from economics to the analysis of crime. In the work that follows, this thesis will argue that, based on current environmental criminology theory, the movement of offenders and ordinary citizens play a vital but under-researched role in the distributions of crime. For offenders, it shapes their awareness and familiarity of the opportunities for crime. For ordinary citizens, it determines the supply of potential bystanders and the quality of ambient guardianship. This thesis will contend that the current methods for empirically describing or estimating both types of movement and the approaches typically used for analysing (their role in) crime patterns are not without significant shortcomings. As such, a series of novel graph theory network measures and a sample of discrete choice methods (the conditional logit, mixed logit and latent class logit models) are explored in relation to these issues. These methods are then jointly employed and empirically tested and compared in a set of original analyses of the burglary location choices in Buckinghamshire (UK).
... Changes in destination profiles of the counties could be related, beyond crisis, to implications of competing destinations to allow for better chances for jobs and income. The process could be compared or contrasted to what is happening with competing migrants (Stouffer 1960) in immigrants societies. Competition in immigrant societies is for opportunities among migrants coming from different origins. ...
Data
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The article is targeted to an understanding of transnational fields of Romanian migration from the point of view of the destination selection as measured by migration selectivity at different levels. Why some people from certain communities and regions of Romania go to certain countries? Are there any changes in these choices as related to the global crisis? These are the two basic questions of the study. The answer is given in terms of multilevel selectivity of migration abroad. Characteristics of personal status (age, human capital, gender, ethnicity), residence community (levels and types of local human development) and regions (urban and development regions) are especially analysed by census data from 2011. The seven major transnational fields of Romanian migration-towards Italy, Spain (plus Greece and Cyprus), France (plus Belgium and Portugal), Germany (plus Austria), United Kingdom (plus Ireland, USA and Canada), Nordic European countries and Hungary-are described by their regional origin in Romania and one or multi-countries destinations. Multiple regression models are used to explain, at individual and community level, why choosing one or another destination. The complexity of studied phenomenon oblige to using multiple frames of reference for comparisons-recent international migrants versus nonmigrants of working age, internal and external temporary migrants, NUTS3 or NUTS2 regional units of analysis. The dynamics of the seven migration fields and their causal profile are reconstituted also in time by developing a kind of migration archelogy function of the periods long time emigrants abroad left the country.
... Nijkamp and Reggiani (1992) offered a broad exposition on the justification of social physics, including its methodological underpinning, based on spatial interaction theory, cost-efficiency principles, aggregate utility theory, statistical information theory, and micro-based choice theory (see also an informative overview by Bröcker 2020). A special class of approaches in the area of spatial interaction models can be found in the so-called intervening opportunities principles (see Stouffer 1969) and in the class of potential (or spatial attraction) models often used in retail studies. Over the past decades, spatial interaction models-either originating from standard gravity theory or from spatial entropy theory-have gained great popularity in analyses of flows in regional science, geography, demography and sociology. ...
Article
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For decades, gravitational analysis has been a key instrument in analyzing spatial flows. Time and again, it has prompted new and challenging research questions. This paper provides a concise overview of the foundation, the conceptualization and empirical relevance of gravitational principles in regional science and spatial economics. Attention is also given to general “social physics” interpretations of gravity in spatial interaction models and to the impact of intangible distance frictions. The main emphasis in the study is placed on the significance of spatial impedance functions and gravity potential analysis. In particular, the paper focuses on cross-border trade and has three main goals: (i) to address the robustness of distance friction parameters related to trade borders, employing, inter alia, quantitative results from meta-analyses on trade models in spatial economics; (ii) to present a promising methodology based on gravity potential and the related gravitational gradient models that include directional intensities of flows; (iii) to test the validity of the latter approach on the basis of a vector gradient analysis of export patterns of the Netherlands. The paper argues that—despite the space-reducing impact of the modern digital technologies—gravitational principles still have an uncontested relevance in an analysis of spatial flows in regional science.
... The name of the first sociological theory is the inventing opportunities theory developed by Stouffer in the year 1940 on basis of sociological purpose (Stouffer, 1940). In the year 1940 and the year 1960 mentioned in his approach that the migration event is proportionately equal to the job opportunities at the destination (Stouffer, 1960). At the same time from the origin places equal number of existing opportunities is being closed. ...
Article
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This study aims at reviewing the existing theories and studies of circular labor migration which explore the causes and consequences of circular labor migration of a developing country like Bangladesh. According to most of the relevant studies of circular labor migration unemployment, poverty, social status, cultural, political, higher wages, better job opportunity, better living standard, economic degradation, mal adjustment of the community, are the major push factors in migration process. Although pull factors are not so prevailing, easy access of informal sector, higher income earning possibility, better service facilities, and bright future life attracted people to make a settlement in the developed countries. Based on existing literature, article, journal, reviewed document, and the significant consequences of circular labor migration are crate employment and better earning, enjoying some public facilities, congestion, difficulties of waste dumping, shortage of housing, inadequate educational facilities, poor economic condition, living standard and environmental humiliation. The main objective of this article is to find out theoretically the reasons and circumstances of circular labor migration from Bangladesh.
... Stouffer intermediate capabilities models are the alternative to gravitational models (Stouffer, 1960). The sociologist believed that the number of people moving a certain distance is inversely proportional to the number of obstacles and directly proportional to the number of prospects for migrants. ...
Article
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Introduction. With this paper we want to show that the study of international competitiveness only at a country level does not correspond to the contemporary development of the global economy. The author presents the methodology for competitiveness grouping of international integration groupings’ member states in order to assess the global competitive force of trade and economic groupings in the world economy. Based on the data of the Global Competitiveness Report 2019 regarding the competitiveness of the EU Member States, the Global Competitive Force Index of the EU as an interstate integration grouping has been calculated. The Index will help evaluate economic integration or disintegration processes in the global economy. The research demonstrates the necessity of the annual global competitive force ranking of international integration groupings. This study will enhance knowledge in the field of economics by grouping the EU Member States’ global competitiveness indices according to 12 criteria and identifying the new quantitative and qualitative integrated Global Competitive Force Index of an international integration grouping. To reach this objective, we will define the Integrated Global Competitive Force Index as the average of the individual points of the EU Member States in 2019. The novelty of our study lies in the comparative analysis of the three largest interstate integration groupings from the perspective of their competitive force. The introduction of the new integrated Global Competitive Force Index of interstate integration groupings will help competition policy makers decide which processes of economic integration or disintegration should be preferred in order to increase their competitive force in the global economy. The purpose. Research and calculation of the European Union’s Integrated Global Competitive Force Index to analyze the attractiveness of the European Union in terms of global competitive force. Based on the calculation of the EU Integrated Global Competitive Force Index 2019, the attractiveness of the EU competitive environment has been determined according to 12 criteria. Results. The ranking of the three largest regional integration groupings of the world economy has been formed. Specification of the assessment and results of the integrated index of interstate integration groupings’ global development can be used for the competition policy development of the individual member state of an integration grouping as well as the communitarian competition policy. The EU Integrated Global Competitive Force Index will help understand what the integration grouping’s competitive force means and whether the process of interstate integration of countries contributes to enhancing the competitive force of an individual country and the integration grouping as a whole. To calculate the EU Integrated Competitive Force Index, we will analyze the Member States on 12 competitive strength criteria, and Global Competitiveness Report 2019 will serve as the basis for our study. According to our calculations, the EU Integrated Global Competitive Force Index is 72 points out of 100. Conclusion. The results of a comprehensive integrated assessment of the competitive force of 28 EU Member States demonstrate a high overall competitive force index of the grouping, indicating the EU’s impact on global competitive processes. The EU Global Competitive Force Index can be used both as an indicator of the separate international integration grouping’s development and as a global criterion for the effectiveness of interstate integration groupings in the transformation of international competitive relations. Discussion. The highlighting of the EU global competitive force is a requirement for the contemporary development of the global competitive environment, since interstate integration groupings are the main actors of the world economy, which significantly affect the distribution and growth of competitive force.
... Stouffer intermediate capabilities models are the alternative to gravitational models (Stouffer, 1960). The sociologist believed that the number of people moving a certain distance is inversely proportional to the number of obstacles and directly proportional to the number of prospects for migrants. ...
Article
The countries of the European Union have traditionally been actively involved in the processes of international labour migration. Given the existence of a general strategy for regulating these processes, there are significant differences in the mechanisms of their implementation in the context of individual national business environments. This research identifies the factors influencing the formation of volumes, directions, and structure of the system of migration flows in the European region based on the conducted economic and mathematical modelling. Thus, it is possible to state the fact of exclusively economic reasons for labour migration. The social factor, represented by the size of wages, is derived from the economic one and has a secondary impact. The environmental factor does not affect the intensification of migration processes. The basic factors in determining the current migration policy of the EU are the general situation on the world labour market, the state of socio-economic development of the region, the structure of domestic production and consumption in individual countries. An additional factor influencing today is the nature of the crisis, the cause of which is not economic and financial, but medical and social one. Given the sustainability of the factors of influence, it is possible to predict changes in the main trends of international labour migration in connection with the COVID-19 pandemic. The consequences are not only a change in migration policy within the region, but also a strategy to attract external migrants from donor countries and the development of a special system for managing migration processes in the new environment.
... Changes in destination profiles of the counties could be related, beyond crisis, to implications of competing destinations to allow for better chances for jobs and income. The process could be compared or contrasted to what is happening with competing migrants (Stouffer 1960) in immigrants societies. Competition in immigrant societies is for opportunities among migrants coming from different origins. ...
... Therefore, developing new models for the population mobility is a continuous effort. Intervening opportunities models proposed by Stouffer [118] have the main idea: "The probability that a trip ends in a given location is equal to the probability that this location offers an acceptable opportunity times the probability that an acceptable opportunity in another location closer to the origin of the trips has not been chosen." Along this track, the radiation model was proposed by Simini et al. [119] and has been gaining increased attention. ...
Thesis
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Transportation presents a major challenge to curb climate change due in part to its ever-increasing travel demand. Better informed policy-making requires up-to-date empirical mobility data to model viable mitigation options for reducing emissions from the transport sector. On the one hand, the prevalence of digital technologies enables a large-scale collection of human mobility traces, providing big potentials for improving the understanding of mobility patterns and transport modal disparities. On the other hand, the advancement in data science has allowed us to continue pushing the boundary of the potentials and limitations, for new uses of big data in transport. This thesis uses emerging data sources, including Twitter data, traffic data, OpenStreetMap (OSM), and trip data from new transport modes, to enhance the understanding of mobility and transport modal disparities, e.g., how car and public transit support mobility differently. Specifically, this thesis aims to answer two research questions: (1) What are the potentials and limitations of using these emerging data sources for modelling mobility? (2) How can these new data sources be properly modelled for characterising transport modal disparities? Papers I-III model mobility mainly using geotagged social media data, and reveal the potentials and limitations of this data source by validating against established sources (Q1). Papers IV-V combine multiple data sources to characterise transport modal disparities (Q2) which further demonstrate the modelling potentials of the emerging data sources (Q1). Despite a biased population representation and low and irregular sampling of the actual mobility, the geolocations of Twitter data can be used in models to produce good agreements with the other data sources on the fundamental characteristics of individual and population mobility. However, its feasibility for estimating travel demand depends on spatial scale, sparsity, sampling method, and sample size. To extend the use of social media data, this thesis develops two novel approaches to address the sparsity issue: (1) An individual-based mobility model that fills the gaps in the sparse mobility traces for synthetic travel demand; (2) A population-based model that uses Twitter geolocations as attractions instead of trips for estimating the flows of people between regions. This thesis also presents two reproducible data fusion frameworks for characterising transport modal disparities. They demonstrate the power of combining different data sources to gain new insights into the spatiotemporal patterns of travel time disparities between car and public transit, and the competition between ride-sourcing and public transport.
... According to the theories elaborated b geographers, distance, population, social modernization, and environmental disasters represent th main determinants of human migration. Sociologists have also studied the phenomenon of migration The concept of intervening opportunities as the main determinant of migration (Stouffer, 1960). Th idea of the 'push' and 'pull' factors that explain migration. ...
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The paper perceives the study of illustrations exceptional diaspora Gujarati feminist poetry of Pann Naik. Paper focuses on the aspects of how she is a prominent feminine voice of Gujarati diaspora poetry. Poetry has been a healing factor in the process of migration and settlement of Panna Naik in the U.S.A. Poetry is an effective medium for the poetess to express her feminine heterogeneous multi regional, linguistic, religious and cultural identity. Her poetry reveals how she sustains and develop her feminine self-maintained Indian American identity through her poetry. Some poems are selected for this study keeping in sharp contrast the above mentioned realities. Poetess is thriving an establishing her identity as the voice of women in host land through poetry. The fact of being a woman woman writer and variance between the two divergent fondnesses-homeland and host land-is clearly evident in the poems of Panna Naik. This study can open new horizons of studying different aspects o Gujarati feminist as well as diaspora literature. Gujarati literature and its flavours are drawn to the Global platform.
... En el segundo, los costos del movimiento no sólo incluyen aspectos objetivos (diferencias reales entre O y D) , sino subjetivos (percepción, expectativas y valoraciones de las diferencias entre lugares o en el tiempo). En este caso son de considerable importancia la idea de "oportunidad interviniente" (Stouffer, 1960) y la evaluación por parte del migrante de la fricción de la distancia, tanto como los aspectos positivos y negativos en el origen y en el o los destinos (Sjaastad, 1962;Lee, 1966). Los modelos migratorios se diseñan típicamente con el propósito de explicar los procesos históricos de distribución de la población o como marco para proyectar la actividad migratoria futura y pueden partir de un enfoque macro (agregado) o micro (decisión individualizada del migrante). ...
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Conference Paper
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The objective of this paper is twofold. It first aims to study the evolution of the determinants of human migration. Second, it demonstrates that its natural determinants still explain this phenomenon. To do so, I analyse the history of human migration, define its natural determinants, study their evolution and test their capacity so as to explain human migration from 1962 to 2007 in ninety-two countries. The theoretical analysis reveals that water availability, adequate climate, security, and population density are the main natural determinants that explain the simple migration period. Relying on basic estimations, the findings reveal that the four natural determinants still explain current international migration. Similarly, during the complicated migration, the new sub-determinants represented by GDP, absorb parts of the natural determinants explanation capacity.
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This paper presents a unifying theory that explains human migration. Unlike the gravity theory, this one is based upon the osmosis phenomenon. In biology, the determinants of osmosis are measured by the number of moles of gas molecules, the Gas constant, the temperature in kelvins and the volume of the cell. Relying on this model, the determinants of osmosis are intuitively replaced with the natural determinants of human migration (water, climate, security, and density). Moreover, the determinacy of GDP and the location, explained by the distance, are added to the final estimation. The estimation outcome of the OLS regression of 93 countries during 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, reveals that the osmosis model represents a strong and significant explanation of human migration. In addition, GDP is not a strong determinant of migration, it just reflects the natural determinants. Human migration is, then, a matter of strong powers of an evolutionary natural pressure between regions. Key words: Human Migration, Natural determinants, osmosis.
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Population ageing and migrations are currently the most popular research topics. However, not many researchers combine those two matters, conducting researches only on migrations of elderly people. The following article presents the analysis of senior citizens’ migration trends in Poland. It is preceded by the profile of regional background, which is senior citizens’ migrations in Europe. The study points out places where senior citizens migrate most frequently. Such information may be useful for local authorities to conduct its policy properly.
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Chapter
In this chapter, we revisit the modelling of gross inter-urban migration flows in New Zealand. As in previous work, we identify a range of geographic, demographic, economic and climatic characteristics of urban areas, which are statistically significant determinants of migration. However, we argue that in a small but open population such as New Zealand (in which one quarter of the resident population is foreign born and one sixth of the New Zealand-born population lives abroad), inter-urban migration should be modelled jointly with rural-urban and international migration. We proceed to estimate a modified gravity model of migration in which the flow matrix is augmented with rural-urban and international migration. Migration data are obtained from four successive population censuses since 1996. We find notable differences in the impact of migration determinants when comparing urban-urban, urban-rural and urban-world migration flows. The estimation of these models is straightforward and does not require collection of data on rural areas or foreign countries. Hence, the method can be easily applied to other case studies in which international and/or rural-urban migration are important components of population churn.
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Instead of regarding violence as a homogenous event, this article deconstructs the violence in Syria through Galtung’s concept of structural violence in order to understand the impact it has on the decision to move at a disaggregated level. It outlines the determinants of migration processes in Syria, relying on semi-structured interviews. By doing so, this research aims at enhancing the understanding of the determinants of forced displacement and migration patterns in response to violence. The research shows that enduring structural violence profoundly affects individuals` decision to leave their homes and become refugees. Beyond actual violence per se, refugee movements from Syria to neighbouring countries are linked to the gradual increase in structural violence, as well as proximate conditions and intervening factors. While pointing direct and actual violence as a determinant of internal displacement, this research also highlights that individuals forced to abandon their homes are not passive victims of the conflict.
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Problematyka migracji jest współcześnie jedną z najszerzej dyskutowanych społecznie i analizowanych od strony naukowej. Szacuje się bowiem, że około 250 milionów ludzi na świecie można traktować jako migrantów bądź uchodźców, a ich liczba nieustannie wzrasta. Migracja stanowi przedmiot badań różnych dziedzin i dyscyplin naukowych, w tym także nauk teologicznych. Kościół katolicki wypowiadał się wielokrotnie na temat podstaw migracji, a przede wszystkim na temat opieki duszpasterskiej nad migrantami. Jest bowiem rzeczą zrozumiałą, że obowiązkiem Kościoła jest troska o swoich wiernych także wówczas, gdy z różnych powodów osiedlają się poza krajem ojczystym.
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Understanding spatial interactions such as human mobility has been one of the main analytical themes in geography, spatial economics, and traffic engineering for a long time. The intervening opportunities models, including the radiation model, provide a framework to elucidate spatial interactions generated by an individual’s distance-ordered decision-making process. However, such classical definitions of intervening opportunities have often failed to predict realistic flow volumes, particularly for short-distance flows. To overcome this problem, we have proposed a new formulation of intervening opportunities with a kernel function to introduce a fuzziness in spatial search behaviours of destinations, to develop a new variant of the radiation model. The mobility patterns resulting from the modified radiation model that included kernel-based intervening opportunities outperformed the original radiation model when fitted to four datasets of inter-regional flows.
Article
E. G. Ravenstein was the first to provide a careful, scholarly study of internal migration. His earliest papers appeared in 1876 followed in 1885 and 1889 with more detailed studies. He used British Census data in all but the last paper in which he turned to data from continental Europe (Germany, Netherlands, France, Italy, and others) as well as data from the United States and Canada. His work may be described as descriptive and interpretative, and he provided a number of hypotheses that were extremely insightful and have withstood the test of time. He anticipated the gravity law of migration in which distance and population are key determinants of migration from i to j. He also viewed migration from i to j as generating a weaker counter flow from j to i. He anticipated the idea of intervening opportunities in which migration to any given place is influenced by the absorptive power of alternative places between i and j. Women, he thought, were more migratory than men and tended to migrate over shorter distances than men. He thought the contemporary rural population more migratory than the urban population. In general, he felt that migrants were responding to differences in opportunities as measured by ‘greater promise for remunerative labour’ in one part of a country relative to another. In addition to other ideas, he noted that the forces underlying migration are complex and include the quality of the public infrastructure, such as roads, climate, taxation, and more.
Chapter
This chapter presents a quantitative study which uses a large-scale dataset to better understand the driving force behind the largest outflow of Chinese international students. Based on data collected from 3001 students at 18 high schools located in the three cities of Beijing, Shenzhen, and Chengdu, this chapter highlights the importance of students’ academic preparation and their families’ financial capability. Sociocultural factors such as “experiencing another culture” and “gaining global perspective” play a significant role but are often understudied in the case of Chinese students.
Chapter
This chapter provides a comprehensive overview of international student mobility, with a focus on the theoretical frameworks in existing studies of the motivations for and impacts of international student mobility. We introduce and review the “push-and-pull” theory, the major framework used in existing studies to examine the motivations for mobility. Furthermore, we conduct a systematic review of the World System Theory and Human Capital Theory, two theoretical frameworks that have been widely used to understand the patterns and impacts of international student mobility. Drawing primarily on the experience of Chinese students, this chapter illustrates how these frameworks could be used to shed light on the trends in and impacts of the international mobility of Chinese students. We also offer a description of the book at the end of this chapter.
Article
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In 1885, Ravenstein formulated his “laws” of migration, based on the experience of the British Isles. In a further 1889 paper, he extended his analysis as a tour d’horizon of migration and population changes in other nations, including Italy. Even if social and economic processes including globalisation and rising mobility have changed the world since then, Ravenstein’s “laws” remain a point of reference today. Harnessing theoretical and methodological advances made since the 19th century, this paper describes and seeks to explain the role of international and internal migration in regional population change in Italy from 2002-2017. This paper provides the fi rst geographically detailed migration analysis for the country’s 611 Local Labour Market Areas (LLMAs), using register-based migration and population data. Our contribution focuses on several of Ravenstein’s “laws” relating to gender (differences between men and women), natives and non-natives (differences between the Italian and the foreign population), distance migrated from origin to destination, and the role of the economy in shaping push and pull factors of migration. The results show that international migration is more prominent among men than women. In the case of internal moves, the rates of migration among men and women are similar, and internal migration is more prominent among the foreign than the native Italian population. Overall, international migration gains contribute substantially more to population change than internal migration gains and losses do. In Italy, the effects of persistent economic imbalances and of distance on migration patterns are not in line with Ravenstein’s hypotheses: not all areas with high unemployment show an effect of dispersion, nor does distance always act as a deterrent to migration. The geographically detailed analysis presented here illustrates the temporal and spatial coexistence of diverse international and internal migration processes depending on local characteristics, as well as the importance of the economic or administrative centres as the driving force behind national patterns. Our results show that, even 130 years after their formulation, Ravenstein’s migration “laws” (more accurately called “hypotheses” today) are still a valuable starting point in assessing and understanding migration processes and their role in regional population change.
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Uma equipa de investigadores, constituída pelo Professor Carlos Sangreman, pelo Doutor Carlos Lopes, pela Doutora Maria Sousa Galito (que executou todo o trabalho de entrevistas e a grande maioria da distribuição do inquérito). É apresentada a análise dos resultados de um inquérito online que teve 683 respostas de várias regiões de Angola e de 82 entrevistas, umas mais formais outras menos, feitas em Luanda, Benguela, Huambo e Cabinda, procurando traçar um perfil dos por-tugueses emigrados. Procurou-se também recolher a perceção desses migrantes de quantos portu-gueses haveria em Angola em 2013, tendo-se ponderado as respostas pelos dados oficiais portugueses e angolanos para chegar a uma ordem de grandeza de 150-175 mil portugueses a trabalhar ou viver naquele país.
Internal Migration in Sweden and Intervening Opportunities
  • Isbell
Interstate Migration and Intervening Opportunities
  • Bright