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Making Indonesia more attractive to foreign investors: A computable general equilibrium analysis of reducing the risk premium in Central Java
Abstract
Indonesia aims to increase inward foreign direct investment. However, widespread discrimination in how investments are treated, the weak application of the rule of law and opaque regulations have increased the risk premium confronting potential investors and impaired foreign direct investment. This study employs a Computable General Equilibrium Model to simulate the economic effect of a reduction in the risk premium in Central Java on investors in the chemical sector and a select range of sectors nominated by the Central Java government as representing investment opportunities. The results suggest capital flows to Central Java increase, generating higher employment, labor productivity, real wages and GDP in Central Java. At the national level, real investment, aggregate capital stock and GDP increase for Indonesia as a whole. The policy implications are that greater transparency and consistency in the application of the rule of law, will increase capital inflow and result in improved macroeconomic performance.
... On the other hand, Vo (2015) stated that foreign investors could stabilize the risk of companies via a monitoring mechanism, so that the higher the stocks owned by foreign investors, the lower the return volatility. Some argue that foreign ownership could reduce return volatility since it increases governance, risk sharing, monitoring, stabilization, and appropriate financial decision-making (Pambudi & Smyth, 2009;Ang, Cole, & Lawson, 2010;Solnik, 1974). Li, Nguyen, Pham and Wei (2011) also found in their study of 31 developing countries including Indonesia, that the higher the stocks owned by foreign investors, the lower the return volatility. ...
... One reason is that if domestic investors own the investment entirely, the risk is influenced entirely by these investors. Nevertheless, if both domestic and foreign investors can own it, the risk will be shared because of additional capital flow (Pambudi & Smyth, 2009). Global investors create a positive sentiment in a country's stock market thereby increasing stock prices. ...
... Furthermore, they helped to reduce volatility of stocks by these actions . Besides, capital flows, transparency, and regulation transformation could also reduce the risk (Pambudi & Smyth, 2009). Thus, the third hypothesis is as follows: ...
This study examines the relationship
between foreign ownership and return
volatility, trading volume, and risk of
stocks at the Indonesia Stock Exchange
(IDX). Panel data of selected companies
listed on the LQ45 index of the IDX was
employed for the period between 2011
and 2017. Foreign ownership was found
to positively affect stock return volatility,
trading volume, and risk. Hence, more
substantial foreign ownership of stocks
meant more drawbacks to Indonesian
stocks. Therefore, there is a need for
the Indonesian government to limit
and regulate foreign shareholders in
Indonesia.
... O TERM-BR também foi utilizado nos trabalhos de Santos (2006), Fachinello (2008), Pavão (2008), Diniz (2012), dentre outros. O modelo SinoTERM foi construído para a China (Horridge;Wittwer, 2008;Horridge;Wittwer, 2009), e o modelo TERM, para a Indonésia (Pambudi;Smyth, 2008). O desenvolvimento do TERM australiano também deu origem ao TERM-H2O, utilizado para analisar problemas relacionados a políticas de gerenciamento de água na Austrália (Wittwer, 2012). ...
... O TERM-BR também foi utilizado nos trabalhos de Santos (2006), Fachinello (2008), Pavão (2008), Diniz (2012), dentre outros. O modelo SinoTERM foi construído para a China (Horridge;Wittwer, 2008;Horridge;Wittwer, 2009), e o modelo TERM, para a Indonésia (Pambudi;Smyth, 2008). O desenvolvimento do TERM australiano também deu origem ao TERM-H2O, utilizado para analisar problemas relacionados a políticas de gerenciamento de água na Austrália (Wittwer, 2012). ...
A Amazônia Legal foi alvo de políticas desenvolvimentistas no século XX. Com características estruturais diferentes dasdo restante do Brasil e abrigando a maior floresta tropical do mundo, o resultado foi crescimento econômico e desmatamento. Alguns fatores são apontados como determinantes desse desmatamento, como as políticas de incentivo ao desenvolvimento das décadas de 1970 e 1980, os investimentos em infraestrutura, a pecuária e a agricultura. Este artigo apresenta uma metodologia de projeção para o desmatamento nas mesorregiões da Amazônia Legal, decorrente de fatores econômicos e de condicionantes estruturais da região. Para isso, foi usado um modelo de Equilíbrio Geral Computável (EGC) dinâmico inter-regional com uma especificação para a ocupação do solo nas regiões, isto é,uma inovação para a literatura.Os resultados para o período estudado(2006-2030) apontaram que as regiões com maior crescimento e desmatamento seriam aquelas situadas no arco do desmatamento(Mato Grosso, Pará e Rondônia), principalmente regiões produtoras de soja e bovinos.
... IndoTERM is based on the well-known TERM model Horridge (2012) (Yusuf et al. 2018;Pambudi et al. 2008Pambudi et al. , 2009Pambudi 2005). The complete model consists of 663,000 separate equations arranged into 304 blocks-so it is too large to describe in this paper. ...
... While the complete model is too large to describe in this paper, a comprehensive description of the core model is contained in Horridge (2011) andHorridge et al. (2005). The TERM model was created for Australia (Horridge et al., 2005;Wittwer and Horridge, 2010) and adapted for South Africa (Stofberg and Van Heerden, 2016), Poland (Zawalinska et al., 2013), Brazil (Ferreira-Filho et al., 2015, China (Horridge and Wittwer, 2008a) and Indonesia (Pambudi and Smyth, 2008;Pambudi et al., 2009;Yusuf et al., 2018). For this paper, we provide an overview only, as the theory of the TERM model and data structures are well documented. ...
The South African National Treasury expected a revenue shortfall of R48.2 billion in 2017/18 and proposed tax policy measures to raise an additional R36 billion in 2018/19. A key component to raise the additional revenue was a 1% point increase in the VAT rate to 15% effective from 1 April 2018. The increase in the VAT rate was not welcomed as it would increase the cost of living, especially for the poor. We investigate the potential economy‐wide and regional impacts of raising VAT and increasing public spending on education and health. We do this by developing and applying a multi‐regional model of the South African economy that includes detailed tax and spending features. In this model, when we increase VAT, the impacts are driven by the direct shock to the model, accompanied by differences in regional economic activity. We find that effects on GDP vary between regions but are generally negative.
... We believe that foreign shareholders to decrease the risk of stock in Indonesia. The foreign ownership plays an important role in the risk sharing (Pambudi and Smyth, 2009;Li et al. 2011) toward the owned stocks so that the risk would be lower (Becht et al. 2003). Entering the foreign investors would contribute to the stock and decrease the risk because the owner can curtail the risk. ...
Using agency theory as a theoretical basis, this paper aims to examine the relationship
between foreign ownership, performance, and risk. Particularly, we examine whether the
foreign ownership can improve or reduce the performance and risk. Vice versa, it also
examine whether performance and risk may also influence the foreign ownership of stock.
We utilized samples from the 100 Kompas Index from the Indonesian Stock Exchange
(IDX), and we obtained 87 stocks from 2011-2017. We analyzed the relationship using
ordinary least square by EViews 10.0. The result shows that the foreign ownership
contributes positively to the improvement of performance, although the performance does
not affect significantly to foreign ownership. Then, the relationship between the foreign
ownership and the risk are not significant. The relationship the risk to the foreign is also
not significant. To commence with, the foreign has an essential role in the improvement of
Indonesian stock performance.
... While the complete model is too large to describe in this paper, a comprehensive description is contained in Horridge (2012) and Horridge, Madden, and Wittwer (2005). The TERM model was created for Australia (Horridge, Madden, and Wittwer 2005;Wittwer 2012) and adopted for South Africa (Stofberg and Van Heerden 2016); Poland (Zawalinska, Giesecke, and Horridge 2013); Brazil (Ferreira Filho, dos Santos, and do Prado Lima 2010); the People's Republic of China (Horridge and Wittwer 2008); and Indonesia (Pambudi and Smyth 2008;Pambudi, McCaughey, and Smyth 2009;Pambudi 2005). As the theory of the TERM model and data structures are well documented, in this paper we provide an overview only. ...
Indonesia has introduced a moratorium on the conversion of natural forests to land used for palm oil production. Using a dynamic, bottom-up, interregional computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy, we assess several scenarios of the moratorium and discuss its impacts on the domestic economy as well as on regional economies within Indonesia. We find the moratorium reduces Indonesian economic growth and other macroeconomic indicators, but international transfers can more than compensate the welfare losses. The impacts also vary across regions. Sumatra, which is highly dependent on palm oil and is home to forests that no longer have a high carbon stock, receives fewer transfers and suffers the greatest economic loss. Kalimantan, which is relatively less dependent on palm oil and has forests with a relatively high carbon stock, receives more transfers and gets greater benefit. This implies that additional policy measures anticipating the unbalanced impacts of the moratorium are required if the trade-off between conservation and reducing interregional economic disparity is to be reconciled. © 2018 Asian Development Bank and Asian Development Bank Institute.
Purpose
The fact that previous studies regarding the effects of social violence on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows come to contradictory conclusions motivates this paper. Therefore, it seeks to investigate the social violence‐FDI relationship in an ethnically heterogeneous and resource‐rich country, Indonesia.
Design/methodology/approach
The theoretical framework of the paper examines the social violence‐FDI relationship and identifies the circumstances under which social violence in the host country adversely affects FDI inflows. The empirical analysis uses a unique dataset that consists of FDI flows and different types of social violence in 26 provinces of Indonesia during the period 1992‐2001. A fixed‐effects regression is applied to estimate the effects of social violence on FDI flows in Indonesian provinces.
Findings
The results indicate that only certain types of social violence such as ethnic and industrial relations violence are detrimental to FDI. Multinational firms seem to differentiate among the several types of social violence and respond only to those that may affect their expected future profits.
Practical implications
The immediate policy implication of this result implies that developing countries having the desire to attract FDI flows should be aware of the fact that multinational firms seem to differentiate among the several types of social violence and respond only to those that may affect their expected future profits.
Originality/value
This paper contributes to the literature in two ways. First, the dataset employed in the empirical analysis is unique in that it contains different types of social violence and associated damage in a country. Second and because of the first point, the empirical findings provide an explanation of the conflicting results reported in the literature regarding the social violence‐FDI relationship.
Foreign multinational corporations (MNCs) have accounted for important shares of employment and production in Indonesian manufacturing since 1975, and these shares increased especially rapidly in the early to mid-1990s. These increases were concentrated in the machinery industries and in MNCs with large foreign ownership shares, and continued through the crisis of 1997-98 and beyond, despite apparently large withdrawals of inward foreign direct investment in 1998 and subsequent years. MNCs generally had much higher average labour productivity than local plants and, after controlling for plant-level variation in electricity consumption per employee, size and vintage, we found that these differentials persisted in about three-quarters of the cases examined. However, there was also large variation in MNC presence and in MNC-local productivity differentials across industries and time, with statistically insignificant differentials most common in apparel and footwear, as well as in MNCs with small foreign-ownership shares.
The paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth using detailed sectoral data for FDI inflows to Indonesia over the period 1997-2006. In the aggregate level, FDI is observed to have a positive effect on economic growth. However, when accounting for the different average growth performance across sectors, the beneficial impact of FDI is no longer apparent. When examining different impacts across sectors, estimation results show that the composition of FDI matters for its effect on economic growth with very few sectors showing positive impact of FDI and one sector even showing a robust negative impact of FDI inflows (mining and quarrying). The sectors examined are: farm food crops, livestock product, forestry, fishery, mining and quarrying, non-oil and gas industry, electricity, gas and water, construction, retail and wholesale trade, hotels and restaurant, transport and communications, and other private and services sectors.
Despite the ease with which it is often conducted, doing business across borders is not the same as doing it at home. Rather, it entails a whole new set of managerial challenges: re-assessing competitive advantage; evaluating diverse political environments and legal structures; considering the impact of currency fluctuations and trading regimes; and understanding widely disparate cultures and business norms. Using the cases presented in this book, instructors can help their students build a framework of analysis that will enable them to understand the challenges of international trade and investment and master the opportunities these represent.
The aim of this study was to investigate the intensity of international technology transfer in selected ASEAN economies through import of machinery and foreign direct investment. The technology transfer intensities across the ASEAN economies vary substantially, with Singapore leading among the four selected economies, followed by Malaysia, Thailand, and Indonesia. The intensities of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the region is closely related to the levels of technology transfer to the region. It is observed that the Asian financial crisis did alter the concentration of FDI inflows in these countries. The data also show that the ratios suffered a setback in the year after 1998. After this setback, both Malaysia and Singapore gained momentum again in attracting inflows of FDI, almost double the ratio of 1998. This indicates that Malaysia and Singapore were the most successful among the selected ASEAN countries in tapping the benefits of FDI and technological transfers with good strategies and policies. In contrast, Indonesia faced a continuing outflow of FDI since the crisis, yielding a negative impact on its economic activities. Among nations, Japan and the United States are the two dominant FDI providers for the ASEAN region, and they have contributed substantially in the transfer of technologies into the region.
The main purpose of the paper is to analyse the local business environment in Indonesia after decentralization. Corruption or rent-seeking behaviour is focused on bribery and the market for local (district) government regulatory goods such as business licence, fire safety inspection, compliance to environmental regulations, local tax appraisal, building permits, and employment contract inspection. We abstract from other rent-seeking activities like lobbying governments for particular projects, industrial protection, and exclusive monopoly rights. In the model, government regulation can be customized to extract rent. A firm has to spend time and money to reduce its burden. The paper uses a method based on the standard theory in economic analysis that a firm would engage in negotiation if the burden is sufficiently high, and only if the marginal effectiveness of bribes after taking into account uncertainty exceeds the marginal cost of bribes in negotiation. The empirical results of the model suggest that uncertainty plays a significant role in affecting bribe level. In addition, from the way the uncertainty variable is constructed, there is also an indication that some fragmentation of bribe collection system has taken place.
This study evaluates the effectiveness of the economic laws some of which were introduced in the IMF-led post-crisis reforms to address serious problems faced by the Indonesian economy. It is argued in the study that the economic law reform has not been as effective as expected since the implementation of a law has not conformed with legal policy. The objective of the legal policy of the Bankruptcy Act, which was enacted in accordance with IMF conditionality, was to liquidate insolvent domestic companies and to relieve foreign creditors. At the implementation stage, however, the ruling of the commercial courts was often handed down against creditors. The ineffective implementation was due to several factors; one of them was judges' defensive reaction to possible hostile takeover by foreign creditors.
We measure and analyze the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) and imports on the economic growth and productivity of four individual countries which were among the founding members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). These four countries are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. After briefly reviewing their economic patterns, we estimate, for each of the four countries, a separate production functions by using foreign capital and imports as two distinct factors among the factors of production. Our analysis is based on time series annual data from early 1970s to 1998. The estimated production elasticities of foreign capital range from 0.044 for Thailand to 0.086 for Malaysia. About one-fifth to one-fourth of the productivity of total capital stock is generated by growth in FDI: 24.5% in Indonesia, 25.8% in Malaysia, 21.4% in the Philippines, and 20.3% in Thailand. Similarly, the production elasticities of imports range from 0.226 for Indonesia to 0.428 for Thailand. Our results show that openness measured by FDI net-inflows and total imports jointly generates 0.292 of each growth point in Indonesia, 0.529 in Malaysia, 0.353 in the Philippines, and 0.472 in Thailand.
This paper examines whether the higher wages paid by foreign-owned manufacturing plants than by domestically owned plants, typical of most countries, represents a higher price for labor. That is, does it reflect a higher price for workers of a given quality, as represented by the level of education? We then ask whether foreign-owned plants pay a higher price for labor given the characteristics of the plants. Foreign-owned firms are found to pay a higher price for labor of a given educational level than domestically owned ones. Only a part of the difference is associated with plant characteristics, rather than ownership.
This paper examines productivity spillovers derived from the existence of foreign multinational plants and explores the conditions that influence the magnitude of spillovers. The empirical evidence first suggests the existence of positive spillovers. Second, the results suggest that the greater presence of majority- or wholly foreign plants reduced the magnitude of spillovers. Third, partially due to the stronger negative relationship in industries where technological gaps between foreign- and locally owned plants were relatively large, the magnitude of spillovers tended to be smaller and was sometimes negative in such industries. On the other hand, the negative relationship between the magnitude of spillovers and the presence of majority- or wholly foreign plants was not observed in locally owned plants with research and development activity.
This paper presents a randomized field experiment on reducing corruption in over 600 Indonesian village road projects. I find that increasing government audits from 4 percent of projects to 100 percent reduced missing expenditures, as measured by discrepancies between official project costs and an independent engineers’ estimate of costs, by eight percentage points. By contrast, increasing grassroots participation in monitoring had little average impact, reducing missing expenditures only in situations with limited free-rider problems and limited elite capture. Overall, the results suggest that traditional top-down monitoring can play an important role in reducing corruption, even in a highly corrupt environment.
This article examines the effect of foreign direct investment (FDI) on wages in Indonesian manufacturing. An econometric analysis of a panel of plants between 1975 and 1999 finds that both foreign ownership throughout the period and foreign takeover resulted in higher wages relative to domestically owned plants. The wage effects for white-collar employees were typically around twice those for blue-collar employees. The effect of foreign ownership on wages differed among sectors but was always positive.
A large number of studies have used firm-level data to examine whether foreign direct investment (FDI) generates knowledge spillovers to domestically owned firms in less developed countries. However, the results are mixed. In this study, Indonesian plant-level panel data are used to test whether the often-ignored local R&D activities of foreign-owned firms in the host country enhance knowledge spillovers from FDI. The analysis found positive spillovers from R&D-performing foreign-owned firms, while spillovers from non-R&D-performing foreign-owned firms were absent.
This paper outlines and tests a model in which firms seek to reduce the cost of taxes and regulatory compliance by offering bribes to government officials. It finds that firms' profitability (scaled by production costs) largely determines both the amounts paid and the time spent negotiating bribes with officials. Competition between arms of the bureaucracy for bribe income seems to be a result of decentralisation, but the analysis suggests that this competition would lead to a spreading of bribes among a larger number of officials rather than to a significant increase in their total amount. Local governments may be able to raise more revenue by reducing the number of taxes and regulations and using part of the increased revenue to raise the salaries of officials, while devoting more effort to restraining corrupt behaviour. But progress may be blocked by central government tax officials increasing their demands for bribes.
The World Bank's new series of Doing Business reports attempt to measure the relative ease of doing business in countries around the world. The output of this research is a set of rankings that enable each country to see how it looks relative to the others from the point of view of private sector businesses. This paper highlights a number of concerns about the Doing Business methodology, and presents a critique of the 'law and finance' view regarding the influence of legal system origins on countries' economic performance, which was highly influential in the first of the Doing Business reports. Selected data from the 2006 report are used to explain why Indonesia is having difficulty getting back to Soeharto-era rates of economic growth. The report's findings in relation to Indonesia are then interpreted within the framework of an analysis of the way the Soeharto 'franchise' operated.
This paper examines the development of manufacturing in East Java in comparison with other major industrial provinces in Indonesia, with a focus on employment, output and investment in the pre-and-post crisis periods. East Java's 'winner' and 'loser' industries and the geographical distribution of manufacturing in the province are described. The paper attempts to account for manufacturing patterns in East Java in terms of infrastructure constraints, the investment climate, access to finance and the relationship between central, provincial and local governments, following the advent of regional autonomy. The paper finds that East Java manufacturing has been less export oriented and responsive to global demand, thus failing to match the performance of the other major manufacturing centres in Indonesia.
This article reflects on problems encountered in implementing legal infrastructure reform in the light of current theory and recent, post-crisis experience in East Asia. Indonesia's experience of radical legal infrastructure reform in the six years since the crisis began has been both extensive and troubled. It is therefore a compelling case study of whether the new paradigm of Post-Washington Consensus Governance reform has delivered the kind of legal institutional changes that its proponents believe might have prevented the crisis. The article begins with an examination of the Governance paradigm rationale for legal infrastructure reform before surveying the Indonesian experience. It concludes with a critique of Governance reform practices and suggest some 'lessons learned' for future legal infrastructure reform, drawn from the Indonesia case study. It argues that the Governance paradigm promotes overly simplistic approaches to the complex and political project of legal infrastructure reform in developing states. Copyright © 2004 Asia Pacific School of Economics and Government, The Australian National University and Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.
This paper estimates the effects of foreign investment in Indonesian’s economic growth for the period 1970 to 1996. Economic growth is measured by growth in gross domestic product (GDP) and gross domestic income (GNI). Two types of foreign investment are considered: foreign direct investment (FDI) and net private capital flows. Other determinants of economic growth included in the analysis are human capital and gross domestic savings. The results suggest that foreign direct investment, net private capital, human capital and gross domestic savings jointly influence economic growth. Foreign direct investment has a significant positive effect on economic growth, while net private capital has no significant effect. Human capital, proxied by the proportion of the population in the labour force and secondary school enrolments, and gross domestic savings, also exert a positive influence on economic growth. On the basis of the analysis, it is suggested that, to enhance the role of FDI in Indonesia’s economic growth, the government should encourage the quality of human capital through improved education and improved skills training.
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