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Directions in scenario planning literature – A review of the past decades
Abstract
This paper provides a systematized overview of patterns in the scenario planning literature published in the last decades. Recently, scenario planning has enjoyed a revival, apparent in the ‘boom’ in published research on the matter. Consequently, a major issue that needs to be addressed is how to organize the literature along precise lines. A number of reviews that describe the current status of the body of literature and knowledge on scenario planning have made attempts to respond to such requirements. These studies agree that systematizing the existing literature is a necessary step in developing the field. This paper aims to contribute to this purpose. The review of the academic literature here conducted is thought to be useful for both academics and practitioners. For researchers, this systematic overview will be constructive not only in providing an analysis of the directions of published research but also in setting up a research agenda for the future. For managers and practitioners, it provides a clear outline of firm-related articles and discusses their contribution from a managerial point of view. It also raises awareness with regard to future analytical methods, and in particular, to scenario planning and its potential contribution to the competitiveness of firms. The research was carried out under the research Project Enterprise of the Future of the University of Aveiro.
... It helps executives to formulate a vision and make robust strategic choices. It also guides them to long-term competitive action, "enlightening" and improving decision-making in an uncertain environment (Wack, 1985;Van der Heijden, 1997;Bradfield et al., 2005;Cornelius et al., 2005;Varum & Melo, 2010;Wilkinson et al., 2013;Wright et al., 2013;Chermack & Coons, 2015;Lehr et al., 2017;Oliver & Parrett, 2018;Gordon, 2020). ...
... Its application also challenges and changes how decision-makers see the world because the process changes their mental models. By promoting such changes, scenario planning enables organizations to adapt quickly to environmental changes (Wack, 1985;Geus, 1997;Bradfield et al., 2005;Cornelius et al., 2005;Burt & Chermack, 2008;Varum & Melo, 2010;Wright et al., 2013;Chermack & Coons, 2015;Gordon, 2020). ...
... However, benefits can go beyond, such as to identify new issues and problems in advance and build shared mental models. These benefits contribute to the strengthening of strategic conversation in the organization, improving decision-making and enabling organizations to be more adaptable to uncertain environments (Van der Heijden, 1997; Bradfield et al., 2005;Varum & Melo, 2010;Wright et al., 2013;Chermack & Coons, 2015;Lang & Ramírez, 2017;Rhisiart et al., 2017;Gordon, 2020). ...
Os métodos de planejamento por cenários têm sido usados desde a década de 1950. No entanto, não há uma definição que seja amplamente utilizada neste campo de estudo. Para que este campo evolua adequadamente, é essencial uma compreensão abrangente quanto ao propósito de uma organização ao utilizá-lo. O objetivo deste artigo foi apresentar os propósitos do planejamento por cenário, que foram identificados em revisão da literatura sobre cenários e planejamento por cenários. Assim, 33 documentos técnico-científicos foram analisados, cujos autores definiram cenários e planejamento por cenários. Os resultados mostram 15 finalidades diferentes para o planejamento de cenários, que consolidamos em seis categorias que representam diferentes usos desse processo. Em seguida, geramos insights tanto para pesquisadores como para profissionais que buscam uma compreensão aprofundada quanto ao uso desses métodos.
... As mentioned, the use of scenarios for corporate strategic planning soared in the mid-1970s (Linneman & Klein, 1983). In terms of publications, attention grew considerably in the period 1990-2005 (Varum & Melo, 2010). Data on publications until 2017 indicate the upward trend continued after that (Oliveira et al., 2018). ...
... Decision making teams are expected to beneft from using scenarios in a number of ways. Varum and Melo (2010) group these into three main expected impacts. By providing an opportunity to envision plausible future states, scenarios can help to generate strategies that reduce risks, build on opportunities, and avoid threats. ...
... They help to pre-experience the future, frame emergent ideas, and develop and communicate strategies. Scenarios are also often credited for creating individual and organisational learning (Varum & Melo, 2010). Nevertheless, only few studies evaluate whether these results actually materialise. ...
Will there be a new pandemic? How will Artifcial Intelligence develop and
which jobs will it afect? Can the worst efects of climate change still be
prevented? Answers to these questions have consequences for persons and
organisations around the world. In long-term planning, analysing the potential
future paths of these trends is known as scenario exploration. In everyday,
language ‘scenario’ refers to a hypothetical sequence of events. Scenarios
can, for instance, refer to the plot of a movie or theatre play, to alternative
future trajectories of greenhouse gas emissions and their impact, or to possible
outcomes of a war. In team decision making, scenario development or
scenario planning refers to a set of approaches that aim to construct descriptions
of the future environment of an organisation. Often multiple scenarios
are developed as it is difcult to predict events or, depending on time
horizon and sector, even general trends. The future is inherently uncertain,
as becomes clear from this Danish proverb: ‘It is difcult to make predictions,
especially about the future’. Preparing not just for one but for multiple
plausible futures is a practical way to deal with uncertainty. Practitioners in
scenario analysis assume that by imagining what the context of an organisation
looks like in the future, an organisation is in a better position to
determine what is important in the present. While widely known and used
for strategy development, scenario planning has received a fair amount of
criticism. Because of the bewildering diversity in approaches and guidelines
to constructing scenarios, the method has been called a toolbox rather than
a tool. In this chapter, we concentrate on one particular school of scenario
development which is called intuitive logics. In this school of thought, the
qualitative input of team members is leading. The process starts by collecting
ideas on trends and developments in the surroundings of an organisation.
86 An overview of selected interventions
Some of these trends are predetermined, meaning that their future behaviour
can be predicted with some degree of confdence. Most interesting are those
clusters that are uncertain and important as they may develop along alternative
paths. These form the basis for a set of alternative, plausible scenarios.
A set of scenarios is developed which each describe, in narrative form, what a
possible future looks like and how it came to be. The question that then follows
logically is ‘if the future looks like this, what can we do to prepare?’ By
analysing what works well across scenarios, in efect using scenarios as a test
bed for strategic actions, so-called robust options can be identifed. A robust
option is a course of action that generates benefcial results, regardless of
major developments in the environment. Alternative approaches to scenario
building combine input from team members with quantitative data, statistical
analysis and simulation. The wide application of scenarios has resulted in
a range of published case studies which are summarised in reviews. The tentative
conclusion from these reviews is that scenarios may help stakeholders
to identify adaptable options, communicate with stakeholders, and increase
understanding and acceptance of uncertainty.
... The current paper aims to fill the gap of using strategic agility through scenario planning for IT companies. At the same time, Varum and Melo (2010) advise that there is a gap in research when it comes to scenario planning application in business, hence the authors encourage researchers to explore the topic and recommend its use mostly to corporate environments. Doz and Kosonen (2008) note that strategic agility embeds three dimensions: strategic sensitivity, resource fluidity, and leadership unity. ...
... A similar view is shared by Varum and Melo (2010), who indicate that scenario planning represents an approach embraced by managerial teams in developing strategy across business processes. According to the authors, applying scenario planning on a business process may provide a pre-experience of the impact of a potential change and a key business decision. ...
... According to the authors, applying scenario planning on a business process may provide a pre-experience of the impact of a potential change and a key business decision. Despite its wide usage across various situations, Varum and Melo (2010) advise that in business, scenario planning can represent a support in analysing various options to ensure best decision. Peterson et al. (2003) agree with Varum and Melo (2010) and indicate that scenario planning represents a useful tool to managers, leaders, and in general to key decision makers, helping them to balance on various options before selecting a final direction for their challenge. ...
... Inferences are the predictions of possible future states of affairs derived from an epistemic tool. In businesses, governmental agencies, policymaking, and in the military scenarios are often produced in order to experiment or make inferences about possible future states of affairs (Varum & Melo, 2010). Scenarios are often utilized within the multi-field of societal safety and risk management as well, and they have been functionally employed as risk pictures before (Carbonell et al., 2017;Solberg & Njå, 2012;Rosa, 1998). ...
... Accordingly, scenarios seem like an appropriate risk indicator to make inferences from. The contention to this is that there is no general theory for scenario building and as a result it is used in different ways, with different methods, to serve different ends (Varum & Melo, 2010). ...
... Scenarios would also be states of affairs suspended in time. Through the discussion of scenario theory, one found that some forms of scenario building are incompatible with the thesis view on uncertainty, as they employ methods that rely on a deterministic world view (Börjeson et al., 2006;Schoemaker, 1993;Varum & Melo, 2010). In other words, they claim to be able to reduce ontical uncertainty. ...
The Northern Sea Route is an area that is prone to wicked problems. Wicked problems are problems that are not predefined, nor do they have a single solution. They are problems that exist due to the opinions and wants of the stakeholders in the problem complex. The first part of Future Risk Scenarios of the Northern Sea Route revolves around operationalizing wicked problems into something analysable. As the problems are subjective, they are non-quantifiable, non-linear, non-delineated problems. One can therefore not use ontic quantities to reduce their epistemic uncertainty. In contrast one can use discrete models that reduce epistemic uncertainty in other ways models such as the general morphological analysis approach. Following this methodology, the thesis constructs a conceptual space containing the main dimensions that influence the Northern Sea Route, and the corresponding conditions it can take on. Through the process of cross-assessment of the criterion of whether different dimensions’ conditions can coexist. The criterion of pairwise coexistence is constrained by logical, empirical, and normative assessments. Which leaves an interactive inference model in which one can investigate scenarios and scenario clusters that can realistically occur. By using this interactive inference model, the thesis identifies East/West Relations, Global Environmental Politics, and Technical and Navigational Requirements as the most pivotal dimensions for the formation of sates of affairs. The interplay between the connections in these parameters clearly forms distinct opposing scenario clusters for possible futures. The following discussion therefore delves into how the empirics of these dimensions and contends why they exclude or include specific scenario clusters. Concluding that East/West Relations determine the stability of the Northern Sea Route for stakeholders, whilst Technical and Navigational Requirements and Global Environmental Politics include and exclude stakeholders on a basis of sociotechnical and local environmental safety concerns. Effectively identifying relations, technology, and environmental politics as the strategic areas to target to shape the future of the Northern Sea Route.
... Scenarios are used to create awareness and prepare for an uncertain future Scenarios are used to deal with the inherent uncertainty in short term disruptions (such as for example flooding, COVID 19, terrorist attacks, or a financial crisis), for exploring long-term developments (e.g., climate change scenarios, social responses to public health interventions), and help to test the robustness of different strategies against multiple possible futures. The use of scenarios is reported in the literature under different names: scenario development, scenario planning, and scenario thinking (Varum & Melo, 2010) or referring to a specific approach to constructing scenarios like participatory scenario planning (Oteros-Rozas et al., 2015;Poskitt, Waylen, & Ainslie, 2021). Judging by the rise in the number of publications on scenarios (Varum & Melo, 2010) an increasing number of organizations are employing some form of scenarios, and for different disciplines (e.g. ...
... The use of scenarios is reported in the literature under different names: scenario development, scenario planning, and scenario thinking (Varum & Melo, 2010) or referring to a specific approach to constructing scenarios like participatory scenario planning (Oteros-Rozas et al., 2015;Poskitt, Waylen, & Ainslie, 2021). Judging by the rise in the number of publications on scenarios (Varum & Melo, 2010) an increasing number of organizations are employing some form of scenarios, and for different disciplines (e.g. management, social systems, education, health, climate adaptation, etc.) (Hagens et al., 2022(Hagens et al., , 2021. ...
... management, social systems, education, health, climate adaptation, etc.) (Hagens et al., 2022(Hagens et al., , 2021. In the remainder of this paper, we use the term 'scenario planning', since it is not restricted to a specific phase in the scenario method such as construction, or a specific impact such as (changing) thinking (Varum & Melo, 2010). While the different scenario methods share the assumption that challenging the status quo is an essential basis for strategic planning, they diverge in how The strategies used for searching the articles used the same terms and a similar approach across all databases and languages. ...
... Since then, scenarios have become a major concept and methodology in foresight studies, introduced as a tool for strategic planning in public and private sectors ( Van der Heijden, 1996). Their use has increasingly been spread in businesses in the US and Europe but gained even more popularity in the middle of the 1980s with Pierre Wack's publication about the Royal Dutch Shell success story thanks to scenario planning (Varum and Melo, 2010). While scenarios seem to support sustainability integration into technology development, it remains an emergent discipline, with scenarios being described as "methodological chaos" (Bradfield et al., 2005). ...
... • Challenging existing beliefs and assumptions. It allows one to challenge and break current mental models during strategic conversations by identifying new issues and problems that may arise in the future (Varum and Melo, 2010). • Mapping uncertain contextual factors. ...
The integration of sustainability into highly uncertain technology development is key to support manufacturing companies to reduce their environmental impacts. The use of future scenarios to support decision-making in early design for sustainability is promising, but there is a lack of systematic guidelines on how to build them. Through literature review and empirical research scenario-building guidelines were designed. The guidelines are step-by-step activities to be performed in workshops. Results suggest the guidelines were successful in building consistent, plausible, and useful scenarios.
... Como já explicado, a construção de cenários requer a adoção de um método, contudo existem inúmeras técnicas, modelos e abordagens para isso. São tantas as metodologias de construção de cenários que a literatura chama isso de 'caos metodológico ' (AMER;DAIM;JETTER, 2013;VARUM;MELO, 2010;HEINZEN E MARINHO, 2018). Diante a esse caos, fez-se necessario a adoção de um modelo que se adeque tanto as necessidades da empresa, a natureza do mercado em que ela se insere e também com a abordagem teorica de seus gestores. ...
... Como já explicado, a construção de cenários requer a adoção de um método, contudo existem inúmeras técnicas, modelos e abordagens para isso. São tantas as metodologias de construção de cenários que a literatura chama isso de 'caos metodológico ' (AMER;DAIM;JETTER, 2013;VARUM;MELO, 2010;HEINZEN E MARINHO, 2018). Diante a esse caos, fez-se necessario a adoção de um modelo que se adeque tanto as necessidades da empresa, a natureza do mercado em que ela se insere e também com a abordagem teorica de seus gestores. ...
Resumo O objetivo deste estudo é construir cenários para um escritório de arquitetura, utilizando as ferramentas matriz BSC, análise SWOT e forças de Porter alinhadas à inteligência competitiva para demonstrar que simulação de cenários é uma ferramenta fundamental para o posicionamento estratégico e tomada de decisões. Trata-se de um estudo de caso com natureza qualitativa, realizado pela aplicação de uma adaptação do modelo Rojo. Foram coletados dados por meio de entrevistas com profissionais de arquitetura, gestores de escritórios e por meio de observação na empresa objeto deste estudo de caso. As entrevistas a foram realizadas para identificar as variáveis críticas de sucesso e compreender o ambiente externo a empresa, enquanto a observação permitiu a coleta de dados do ambiente interno. Todas essas informações foram aplicadas na construção de cenários e estratégias. Os resultados demonstram que a simulação de cenários é uma ferramenta fundamental na compreensão do status quo de uma empresa, bem como apoio na tomada de decisão para o posicionamento estratégico da mesma. Este estudo contribui para compreender a aplicação da simulação de cenários como ferramenta estratégica no ramo da arquitetura e visualizar a necessidade de aplicação desta ferramenta as organizações deste segmento. PALAVRAS-CHAVE: Cenários. Planejamento estratégico. Ambiente competitivo. Arquitetura. Abstract The objective this study is to build scenarios for an architectural firm using BSC matrix tools, SWOT analysis and Porter's forces, aligned with competitive intelligence to demonstrate that scenarios simulation is a fundamental tool for strategic positioning and decision making. This is a qualitative case study, performed by applying an adaptation of the Rojo model. Data were collected through interviews with architecture professionals, office managers and through observation in the company object this case. The interviews were conducted to identify critical success variables and understand the external environment of the company, while observation allowed the collection of data from the internal environment. All this information was applied in the construction of scenarios and strategies. The results demonstrate the scenario simulation is fundamental tool in understand the status quo of a company, as well as supporting decision making for its strategic positioning. This study contributes to understand the application of scenario simulation as a strategic tool in the field or architecture and to visualize the need to apply this tool organizations in this segment.
... The U.S. Department of Defense, after World War II, used the scenario planning method to depict future scenarios of new weapons systems at RAND Corporation to plan for long-term development of military projects (Varum & Melo, 2010). Following this path, the California Institute of Technology and the Stanford Research Institute established future studies departments to experiment scenario planning as a tool for public policy assistance (Amer et al., 2013). ...
... They narrate a range of possible futures of EVs in Iran, from the preferable future (scenario one) to the undesirable one (scenario four). It should be noted that the actual future may be shaped by a combination of two or more scenarios' characteristics (Varum & Melo, 2010). ...
Transportation sector is responsible for a considerable share of total energy consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Widespread electric vehicles (EVs) adoption is instrumental in achieving sustainability. This paper aims to elaborate the future scenarios of EVs development and diffusion in Iran by 2040. By adjusting the conventional intuitive logics school, to more efficiently engage public and private stakeholders and to enhace policy informing of the secenario planning results, we identified nine driving forces that shape the future of EVs. Our findings indicate that government policies and the maturity of EV technology development are the two axis of the scenario matrix and the most critical uncertainties. We outline four possible future scenarios for EVs development and diffusion. “EVs persistently struggle under the rule of non-EVs” is the probable scenario, while “EVs rule the streets” is the preferable scenario. This paper also discusses the neglected influence of oil-rich developing countries' context and efficiency of policies on the probable and preferable future scenarios of EVs in Iran. Our proposed scenarios shed light on the uncertainties of EVs development and diffusion, which policy-makers and firms in Iran and other developing countries need to consider in their future policies and strategies. Implications of this research can be helpful if transitioning from a fossil-based transportation system to a sustainable one is on the agenda of oil-rich countries beyond the prevalent political rhetorics toward EVs.
... This approach fosters resilience, enhances decisionmaking capabilities and promotes proactive strategies to navigate uncertainty and volatility in the supply chain landscape. Implementing scenario planning empowers organizations to stay ahead of the curve, anticipate challenges and seize opportunities in an ever-evolving business environment (Amorim Varum and Melo, 2010). ...
Purpose
Supply chain disruptions are a significant risk to businesses in a global marketplace because they make it more challenging for suppliers to effectively transport goods and services to customers. Therefore, it is essential to comprehend how these disruptions affect the retail food supply chain during pandemics and explore how digitalization might help to mitigate these issues in the future.
Design/methodology/approach
A hybrid systematic review and analysis was conducted by retrieving data set from the scopus database using strong keyword search strategy. Later a content analysis was also done to gain more insights on the proposed research.
Findings
The results show that there are several possibilities enabling optimal scenario planning supply chain disruptions and mitigation. In this area, digitalization improves customer satisfaction and logistical efficiency, particularly in transportation and network optimization. In order to cope with uncertainty and grasp significant enhancements proactive strategies and collaboration that are guided by scenario planning and digitalization assist in developing robust supply chains that are sufficiently adaptable to adapt to shifting market conditions.
Research limitations/implications
The study is limited to research papers indexed in Scopus from 2015 to 2023 with a more comprehensive review of retail food supply chain disruptions.
Practical implications
This research provides practical insights for retail food supply chain managers, highlighting the importance of digital maturity and scenario planning by leveraging digital tools and proactive strategies to improve logistical efficiency.
Social implications
This study helps in building resilient supply chains ensures the reliable availability, and food security of essential goods, particularly during crises.
Originality/value
This research uniquely links digitalization and scenario planning to managing supply chain disruptions, highlighting how digital tools and strategic planning enhance resilience and adaptability in the retail food supply chain.
... Over the years, scenario planning has been defined as a tool to articulate views of how possible futures may look (Porter 1985;Schoemaker 1995;Schwartz 1991) particularly in the context of managing uncertainty (Ringland 1998;van der Heijden 2005). Nevertheless, a lack of consistency and an overlap in defining scenario planning has continued to plague the literature (Varum and Melo 2010). Spaniol and Rowland (2018) attempted to clear up the confusion surrounding the definition of scenarios and scenario planning by clustering high-frequency words into several overarching categories based on an analysis of the appropriate literature. ...
In a modern world faced by increasing uncertainty and crises, the importance of scenarios to inform the strategic decision-making processes of governments and corporations has become paramount. This necessitates that those scenarios are rigorous and of high quality. A challenge is that research articulating how to classify and ensure the quality of a scenario is not prolific. This paper addresses this challenge by developing a framework of criteria for assessing scenario quality based on the futures and foresight literature and then using this to offer a new method for specifically assessing the quality of scenarios in the context of crisis management. The Scenario Quality Assessment Method infuses both the critical thinking and creativity required to develop quality scenarios. The method was empirically verified with scholars and practitioners in the industry to determine inter-rater reliability before its intended use in the analysis of a data set for a scenario planning research project in the context of crisis management. This paper contributes theoretically to future and foresight research by including the concept of creativity when assessing the quality of scenarios and offers practitioners in crisis management an effective technique to assess the quality of their own scenarios.
... Specifically, scenario planning is recommended for decision-making in business to survive the uncertainty and unpredictability in changing markets (Amer et al., 2013;Varum & Melo, 2010a, b;Walker et al., 2013). Scenario planning for business accomplishes several things including providing an opportunity to envision plausible future situations in order to generate strategies to reduce risks, take advantage of opportunities, and avoid potential threats as well as to gain confidence by "pre-experiencing" future scenarios (Varum & Melo, 2010a). ...
Purpose
Safety planning is often recommended for stalking victims, yet there has been limited research on personal safety planning in general and specifically for stalking victims. This study has two overall objectives: (1) to examine whether frequency of safety scenario planning (thinking through various strategies in responding to threatening situations) among ex-partner stalking victims is associated with increased personal safety worry, safety efficacy, and other safety behaviors (e.g., seeking safety advice, carrying a safety device); and (2) to explore associations of frequency of safety scenario planning with partner abuse and stalking experiences, help-seeking, and mental health symptoms.
Method
Women stalking victims were recruited from Prolific. Three groups were developed for comparisons including stalking victims who: (a) did not engage in safety scenario planning in the past year (n = 121); (b) engaged in one safety scenario planning activity in the past year (n = 256); and (c) engaged in 2 or more safety scenario planning activities in the past year (n = 184).
Results
Bivariate results found that frequency of safety scenario planning was associated with increased personal safety worry, increased seeking and giving safety advice, and increased defensive safety behaviors. Additionally, the multivariate analysis found more frequent safety scenario planning was uniquely and significantly associated with increased personal safety worry, safety efficacy, work interference, the number of different help-seeking sources, PTSD symptoms, and sexual discomfort.
Conclusions
More research is needed to provide information about best practices in safety planning to better help victims manage the short- and long-term consequences of violence exposure in their recovery journey.
... It facilitates the identification of crucial factors contributing to uncertainty, fostering an understanding of their interplay and crafting plausible alternative narratives of the future [12]. Studies on scenario planning delve into its origins and typologies, emphasizing both qualitative and quantitative methodologies and techniques [1,[13][14][15][16]. ...
The role of scenario planning in architectural and urban decision-making is critical for addressing the complexities and uncertainties inherent in the built environment, particularly in the context of climate change. By providing a structured framework to envision alternative futures, scenario planning facilitates strategic decision-making that is both robust and adaptable. This exploration delves into the theoretical underpinnings of scenario planning, analyzing its conceptual intricacies and applicability within urban planning. Emphasis is placed on integrating scenario planning with Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) methodologies to equip professionals with the tools necessary for navigating future uncertainties. These methodologies enhance the capacity of planners to prepare for diverse future conditions, ensuring sustainable and resilient urban environments. This integrated approach is essential for fostering urban resilience and adaptability in the face of climate change. Through detailed analysis and a case study, the benefits and challenges of scenario planning and DMDU are illustrated, providing valuable insights for practitioners. By leveraging these advanced planning tools, urban planners can better navigate the dynamic and uncertain landscape of architectural and urban development, ensuring cities are prepared for future challenges and opportunities.
... Hence, futures planning demanded the timely production of accurate information on widespread political, environmental, economic, and societal changes. 38,39 The Bloomberg administration turned the City's attention to environmental concerns through what they termed a "comprehensive sustainability agenda," which included 127 policy initiatives to achieve 10 overarching goals to improve the infrastructure, environment, and quality of life in the city. 40 PlaNYC, A Greener Greater New York was followed by the NYC Special Initiative for Rebuilding and Resiliency, 41,42 another citywide report published after post-tropical storm Sandy hit the city. ...
This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological‐infrastructure dimensions of New York City (NYC) and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate‐adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an assessment of current approaches to “future visioning and scenarios” across community and city‐level initiatives and examine diverse dimensions of the NYC urban system to reduce risk and vulnerability and enable a future‐adapted NYC. Methods for the integration of community and stakeholder ideas about what would make NYC thrive with scientific and technical information on the possibilities presented by different policies and actions are discussed. This chapter synthesizes the state of knowledge on how different communities of scholarship or practice envision futures and provides brief descriptions of the social‐demographic and housing, transportation, energy, nature‐based, and health futures and many other subsystems of the complex system of NYC that will all interact to determine NYC futures.
... Such pathways can depict multiple potential futures and the balance between different technical and socio-economic transition aspects in a given context [58]. Thus, the pathways may delineate the key strategies for an energy transition and efficient ways of allocating resources within a system under transition [53,[59][60][61][62][63][64]. Hence generating pathways, when used as an understanding tool of energy system transitions, calls for a comprehensive and integrated perspective of energy systems, thus benefiting from the adoption of a collaborative and interdisciplinary dimension [65][66][67]. ...
Energy transition studies, focusing on electricity and heating sectors, often consider a local energy system
perspective. According to current state-of-the-art, a local energy systems perspective is yet and typically dismissed in the existing road transport decarbonization studies. Such studies tend to be limited to a national or
global perspective, ignoring the challenges that rural areas may face. This study aims to develop a contextspecific method that considers a local energy perspective when generating rural road transport decarbonization pathways. Literature review findings were iterated through participatory interactions with municipal
officials from three Swedish municipalities, representing different-sized rural areas. Based on the municipalities’
climate actions (fossil-free municipality targets) and the availability of local resources, five pathways were
identified in an iterative and co-development manner. These pathways differed with respect to: (i) local electricity production; (ii) use of bio-sources; (iii) flexibility of public transport services; and (iv) tourism-related
road traffic demands. The identified pathways were subjected to a qualitative performance assessment, which
revealed that the local feasibility of each identified pathway depends on economic, environmental, and logistical
factors. Although all identified pathways have the potential to contribute to the decarbonization of the municipalities’ road transport systems, the municipalities preferred different pathways depending on their socioeconomic, technical, and regulatory priorities.
... Scenario analysis [89] is a helpful method that can be used to create and rationalize upcoming opportunities [90]. Sodhi [91] mentions three phases in strategic SC planning: designing, calculating, and validating the scenarios. ...
Background: Additive manufacturing (AM) for patient-specific medical care products offers great opportunities. However, evidence about the supply chain (SC) performance impact based on empirical data is limited. Methods: In this case study, we gathered real-life data about a traditional manufacturing orthopedic shoe SC and developed future scenarios in which AM is introduced at various points and with different degrees of penetration in the SC. Results: Presently, AM can only replace traditional manufacturing of tools and shoe components at a higher total cost. However, with maturing technology, the complete AM production of orthopedic shoes is expected to become feasible. Theoretically, that could disrupt existing SCs, eliminating 70% of the SC steps, improving SC lead time by 90%, and altering SC relations. However, certain thresholds currently prevent disruption. Specifically, the AM of complete orthopedic shoes has to become possible, manufacturing prices have to drop, and traditional craftsmanship has to be integrated into the digital product design. Conclusions: A framework for transition pathways, including directions for future research, is formed. Findings provide valuable insights for scholars and decision makers in the patient-specific products industry, health insurance providers, and healthcare policy makers to be better prepared by adjusting SC designs, relationships, and remuneration programs while AM technology develops towards maturity.
... Directions in scenario planning literature-A review of the past decades (Varum & Melo, 2010). ...
Strategic problem‐solving enables organizations to pursue opportunities and address emerging threats proactively. However, traditional problem‐solving methods often rely on business processes and organizational procedures, which may not be available at the strategic level. This article investigates potential gaps in strategic problem‐solving methods through a Systematic Literature Review. The study analyses the existing literature on the potential of current problem‐solving methods to identify and resolve root causes of strategic problems when formal business processes and procedures are unavailable. A rigorous literature search process guided by focused research questions examines Problem Structuring Methods, Lean Thinking, Six Sigma, Theory of Constraints, Balanced Scorecard, SWOT Analysis, and other techniques. The synthesis of findings reveals limitations in strategic root cause analysis. In addition, the study introduces a supplementary decision‐making frame of reference to aid the selection of appropriate methods across problem‐solving, decision‐making, and solution implementation stages. This framework addresses the common challenges decision‐makers face in navigating organizational complexity and choosing suitable approaches, as well as visually maps methods to stages based on Content, Organizational, and Analytical complexity dimensions. The framework builds on the study's findings that using a single methodology may be insufficient for a complete decision process. The proposed decision‐making framework also offers valuable guidance for integrating diverse methods aligned to decision situations.
... In the management literature, this is known as PEST analysis [28]. There is ample scientific support for the interaction between these forces from fields as diverse as the economics of risk [2], disruptive innovation within management studies [24,114] via multidisciplinary science and technology studies [25,56,65,60], ethics [76], scenario methods in futures research [27,87,91,126], sociology of risk [14,38,45] and risk governance in political science [84], to the social determinants of health approach in public health [16,47], climate change and sustainability studies [35,64], or existential risk studies [8,12,69,82,83,90,109,119,121,122,133] which at times attempt to study incredibly complex sets of risks divorced from evolving findings in adjacent scholarly fields-as if existential risks (x-risks) were qualitatively different. ...
Re-reading the risk literature, I sketch a novel nomenclature for 36 dyadic risk interactions that constitute the prototypes of what eventually become cascading effects. This analysis demonstrates where cascading risk effects originate and also hints at how they get their enormous power. Risk dyads derive from basic first-order interactions across six disruptive forces: sci-tech, governance, economics, social dynamics, ecological impact, and health adversity. I give brief examples of each and provide a short case description of six of the most prominent dyads. Very few of these dyads have an existing shorthand. The exception is NaTech, which denotes natural disasters being amplified by, or amplifying industrial risk, or now more broadly, sci-tech-derived risk. By generalizing the NaTech-style nomenclature across domains, I aim to provide the basic building blocks for a precise understanding of contemporary risk mechanics. This step is often skipped by avid complexity scholars intent on first describing system-wide features. Yet, dyadic analysis is an important prerequisite for systemic understanding of complex cascading effects that depend on triadic or tetradic risk relationships. In reality, even if systemic, and existential risks, as they emerge in the twenty-first century, depend on a myriad of cascading effects, they cannot be fully understood simply by looking at the whole system and attempting to analytically ignore its constituent parts claiming to gain a better overview.
... If this remains unsolved, it will prevent organizations from radically changing their value creation, proposition, and capture activities. Varum and Melo's (2010) systematic literature review and Worthington et al.'s (2009) study on product and service innovations revealed that strategic foresight can be pivotal in achieving desired organizational outcomes such as innovation. Strategic foresight is an approach that requires multiple structural organizational units to systematically refocus their lenses to identify, observe, and interpret emerging trends and weak signals of change, especially those that might not be sensed by normal corporate sensors or that use its dominant search logic (Ruff, 2015). ...
Foresight is fundamental to strategy scholarship and can affect organizational outcomes such as innovation. However, few attempts have been made to link foresight with business model innovation (BMI). Therefore, it remains empirically unclear whether and through which mechanisms strategic foresight influences BMI development. To address these shortcomings, this study analyzes the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI and the mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. The data were derived from surveying a sample of senior managers at 146 Finnish organizations (both large firms and SMEs) and the analysis was conducted by applying structural equation modeling. The findings provide evidence of a direct association between strategic foresight and BMI and suggest a partial mediating effect of learning and, more importantly, sequential mediating effects of sensemaking and learning. This study offers valuable insights into the relationships among BMI, strategic foresight , sensemaking, and learning. It enriches theory and practice by providing empirical support for the direct effect of strategic foresight on BMI, uncovering the multifaceted roles of the mechanisms that influence BMI, and proposing a model that could help managers handle barriers to BMI robustly and systematically.
... One approach to addressing an uncertain future is scenario modelling (Wack, 1985a(Wack, , 1985b, which is an established and widely used technique in large business organisations (Varum & Melo, 2010). Often misunderstood, scenario modelling is concerned not with forming a specific forecast but with helping managers to understand key business drivers and hence manage risk (Pierone, 2013). ...
Universities face an uncertain funding environment and turbulent marketplace. Financial scenario modelling offers a potential mechanism to assist in navigating a way forward. Our previous paper on UK universities' practice found some variation in the sophistication of the approaches taken, but the overall impression was of a relatively simple approach, with spreadsheets generally viewed as having sufficient functionality to meet current strategic needs. This subsequent paper offers guidance on the construction of financial scenario models. It addresses the key variables that universities may wish to include, and it offers advice on how models might be formulated and evolve. The characteristics of differing approaches taken by universities in meeting their own scenario modelling requirements are explored by identifying three forms of model: basic, intermediate and advanced. The contribution of this paper is to enable universities, in the UK and beyond, to evaluate and improve their own financial scenario modelling practices.
... In other words, a scenario is used for thinking about the future (Gausemeier et al., 1998). Scenarios are not able to provide a certain and an accurate description of a single future, they offer decision makers a tool to be prepared for the future uncertainties (Varum and Melo, 2010) basically by 'illuminating the choices of the present in the light of possible futures' (Godet and Roubelat, 1996). ...
... The fragmentation in literature on the process of scenario planning has often been described as "methodological chaos" (Bradfield et al., 2005;Martelli, 2001;Phadnis et al., 2014;Phadnis & Darkow, 2021;Spaniol & Rowland, 2018;Varum & Melo, 2010) and whilst the academic community searches for theoretically rigorous studies to better understand how to manage future competitive dynamics, it is the practitioner community that is driving methodological development and implementation (Amer et al., 2013;Bowman & MacKay, 2020;Oliver & Parrett, 2018;Ramirez et al., 2010). The tension between scenario planning theory and practice should come as no surprise given the often-conflicting aims of these largely mutually exclusive groups. ...
Scenario planning has a long history of academic inquiry and practice in numerous fields and industries; however, its future as a tool to manage strategic uncertainty may well have reached an impasse. While the academic community perpetuates the view that the field is characterized by methodological chaos, the practitioner community is concerned only with how scenario planning can help solve an organizational problem. This paper argues that the academic community would benefit from adopting a philosophical orientation that is “pragmatic” where theoretical and methodological sophistication should be traded‐off against the need to produce a practical outcome that addresses a specific organizational problem. This would enable more academics to generate new knowledge that was “useful” rather than “generalizable.” Adopting a Pragmatic Philosophy would also address three primary issues asserted in literature on the process, content, and implementation of scenario‐informed strategizing. This position paper provides a reflective account of how the narrative on scenario planning theory can be moved more effectively into scenario planning practice by illustrating the author's commitment to developing scenario‐based actionable knowledge, high levels of implementable validity, and instrumental impact with organizations. As such, it presents a reflection on interventions that demonstrate how scenario‐informed strategies were developed and implemented with successful organizational outcomes.
... Although the prediction of future situations does not always guarantee success, especially in unusual situations, such as the Covid-19 pandemic (Milojević & Inayatullah, 2021), it is noteworthy that the ability of organizations to deal with uncertainties and adapt to changes has become a key factor for their success (Varum & Melo, 2010). ...
The study aims to develop prospective scenarios for post-Covid-19 Brazilian tourism, using the Momentum method. Analysis was limited to tourism sector, since no Brazilian studies focused on this theme were identified, bringing a novelty. Momentum presented as a hybrid model, using scenarios prospective vision. Furthermore, Momentum is associated with multi-criteria decision-making, using THOR 2 and AHP-TOPSIS-2N. It was established three prospective scenarios for tourism in Brazil, as well as four alternative tourism forms, directly linked to these scenarios, for the multi-criteria evaluation. It was possible to stablish that both methods determined the same alternatives for appropriate tourism in specifics scenarios.
... Scenario planning helps to deal with these challenges by making alternative futures tangible (Ramirez and Wilkinson 2016;Chermack, 2022;Mukherjee et al., 2020). This method has been proposed and used to improve decision-making processes under conditions of high uncertainty and turbulence (Varum and Melo, 2010). ...
Recent events, such as the COVID-19 pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine, made clear that being prepared for the unknown and unexpected becomes increasingly important. Foresight scenarios are a practical tool that can help improve
decision making in a context of turbulence, uncertainty, novelty, and ambiguity.
To increase preparedness for an uncertain future, the JRC facilitated a foresight process to develop four reference foresight scenarios. This participatory process was based on the Oxford Scenario Planning Approach and engaged more than 100 experts. The reference foresight scenarios explore the global standing of the European Union in 2040. In total, they depict four distinct and plausible futures: Storms, End Game, Struggling Synergies, and Opposing Views.
The reference scenarios can support decisionmakers in several ways, for example by stresstesting current and future policies and policy initiatives, by raising strategic discussions and discussing future implications for a specific policy field, and by increasing futures literacy.
... [22] Even though there have been several reviews on scenario-based methodologies, to our knowledge none has taken a comparative approach nor addressed storylines specifically, showing a gap in the literature. This is the case regarding the reviews that cover scenariorelated methodologies such as impact assessments, [23][24][25] as well as for discourse-analytical approaches. [26] Differences can already be distinguished from the definition each of these approaches has of "storyline." ...
Abstract Storylines are introduced in climate science to provide unity of discourse, integrate the physical and socioeconomic components of phenomena, and make climate evolution more tangible. The use of this concept by multiple scholar communities and the novelty of some of its applications renders the concept ambiguous nonetheless, because the term hides behind a wide range of purposes, understandings, and methodologies. This semi‐systematic literature review identifies three approaches that use storylines as a keystone concept: scenarios—familiar for their use in IPCC reports—discourse‐analytical approaches, and physical climate storylines. After screening peer‐reviewed articles that mention climate and storylines, 270 articles are selected, with 158, 55, and 57 in each category. The results indicate that each scholarly community works with a finite and different set of methods and diverging understandings. Moreover, these approaches have received criticism in their assembly of storylines: either for lacking explicitness or for the homogeneity of expertise involved. This article proposes that cross‐pollination among the approaches can improve the usefulness and usability of climate‐related storylines. Among good practices are the involvement of a broader range of scientific disciplines and expertise, use of mixed‐methods, assessment of storylines against a wider set of quality criteria, and targeted stakeholder participation in key stages of the process.
... For example, OEMs could offer flexible rental and sharing concepts [79] and move Delphi method can be used to collect expert knowledge in a structured way [13,29] with the aim of reaching a reliable consensus within an expert group about future developments and events [28,32,90]. At the same time, the scenario method is particularly suitable for estimating future developments and long-term planning, and is useful in strategic decision making in an uncertain, rapidly changing environment [89,95]. The scenario technique is often used in combination with the Delphi method, as it can increase the quality of the study in terms of creativity, objectivity and credibility [20,60]. ...
The logistics industry is facing a transformation. Automated driving has been gaining importance in the commercial vehicle industry and trucks with SAE L4 are expected by 2030 for the hub-to-hub scenario. Driven by the research question of what the direct logistics environment of automated trucks will look like in 2030 a two-round Delphi-based scenario study was conducted for domestic goods transport in Germany. 19 projections were developed and evaluated by 27 experts from different industries. With complete-linkage clustering, four logistics scenarios for 2030 were created. The results show that environmental and social sustainability as well as digitalization are expected to be the most important drivers. These include the shift to electric drive systems, improved working conditions, and increasing transparency and connectivity of the supply chain. The experts forecast an increase in the importance of software services and a continuing shortage of skilled workers. Rather controversial are the topics of charging infrastructure for electrified transport and the degree of automation of loading systems. Overall, the results provide a reliable basis for strategic decision-making in order to ensure the introduction of automated trucks into the logistics of the future and their surrounding environment.
Disaster planning based on historical events is like driving forward while only looking in the rear-view mirror. To expand our field of view, we use a large ensemble of weather simulations to characterise the current risk of extreme weather events in case study locations in the Southeastern United States. We find that extreme temperature events have become more frequent between 1981 and 2021, and heavy precipitation events are also more frequent in the wettest months. Combining a historical analysis of people’s recent experience with the rate of change of extreme events, we define four quadrants that apply to groups of case studies: Sitting Ducks” , “Recent Rarity”, “Living Memory”, and “Fading Memory” . A critical storyline is that of the “ Sitting ducks ”: locations where we find a high rate of increase in extreme events and where the most extreme event in recent memory (1981-2021) has a low return period in today’s climate. We find that these locations have a high potential for surprise. For example, in Montgomery County, Alabama, the most extreme temperature event since 1981 has a return period of 13 years in the climate of 2021. In these places, we offer unprecedented synthetic events from the large ensemble for use in disaster preparedness simulations to help people imagine the unprecedented. Our results not only document substantial changes in the risk of extremes in the Southeastern United States but also propose a generalizable framework for using large ensembles in disaster preparedness simulations in a changing climate.
Capital markets are essential for a country's development. However, the effort to develop a sustainable capital market may be challenged by many uncertainties, such as pandemics, politics, and investor behavior. This study aims to unveil the future of Indonesia's capital market and provide implications and options for stakeholders to develop a best-practice capital market. The scenario personarrative method, including cluster analysis, is used in this research as it can complement each other by signifying options to different types of investors. Data were gathered from interviews with 25 experts and a questionnaire survey of 438 respondents. With an analysis emphasizing the government's political direction and regulator ability, four transformative scenarios were constructed: (1) thin bull in the pastureland, (2) facing Torero in the bullring, (3) train the circus bull, and (4) world-champion bull. Eight personas were described, each with unique characteristics. Finally, 32 behavioral narratives were constructed based on the four scenarios and eight personas with the options provided. These results benefit stakeholders when deciding on acting in Indonesia's capital market. It is recommended that stakeholders carefully consider ensuring that Indonesia's capital market can achieve the world champion bull scenario in 2030.
The MACTOR method aims to observe the relationships among actors and examine their positions on the key issues of the system under study. Despite being a widely used tool for keeping both the direct and indirect relationships among the actors and their attitudes towards key issues, the method fails to represent the interaction effects. To address this weakness, this study proposes two improvements to the classical MACTOR method. Firstly, the joint effects of actor pairs on others are integrated into the method using the Choquet integral with respect to 2-additive fuzzy measures to ensure that both the positioning map and power coefficients can reflect the power of actor pairs in convincing others to accomplish their own goals. Secondly, the joint positions of actor pairs on the key issues are considered using the Shapley value to include the marginal value that each actor attributes to the objectives. To the best knowledge of the author, this is the first study proposing a methodological improvement to MACTOR and the only one in the literature representing both the interactions among actors and their joint attitudes towards the objectives. The applicability of the proposed approach is demonstrated by an example from the telecommunications industry in Turkey.
Senaryo planlamada olasılıksal karar verme, evrensel literatürde uzun süredir tartışmaya açık bir konu olmuştur. Senaryolar geliştirildikten sonra karar verme aşamasının nasıl gerçekleşeceği ve senaryo olasılıklarının karar süreçlerine dahil edilip edilemeyeceği önemli bir konu olarak karşımıza çıkmaktadır. Literatürde konu ile ilgili iki farklı görüş mevcuttur ve senaryo çalışmaları bu iki farklı görüş doğrultusunda gerçekleşmektedir. Tek bir geleceğe odaklanmak isteyen araştırmacılar senaryolara olasılık ataması gerçekleştirirken, alternatif geleceklerin her birinin değerlendirmeye alınması gerektiğini düşünenler ise olasılıksal karar vermeye karşı çıkmaktadır. Bu çalışmada, öncelikle iki karşıt görüşün düşüncelerine yer verilmiş, daha sonra tahmin ve öngörü ile tümdengelimli ve tümevarımsal akıl yürütmenin farkları ortaya konulmuştur. Sonuç kısmında ise senaryolarda olasılık kullanımı, tahmin ve öngörü ayrımı ile tümdengelimli ve tümevarımsal akıl yürütmenin farkları açısından değerlendirilmiştir.
This paper responds to the critical need for advanced decision-making tools in regional land use planning by developing an interdisciplinary spatial scenario planning framework based on morphological analysis. The research utilizes a case study of Gorgan Township (Iran), with the active participation of experts, to illustrate the practical implementation of the framework. The framework involves five steps: 1- defining a problem space; 2- conducting a consistency assessment; 3- performing a probability assessment; 4- generating scenarios using morphological analysis; and 5- georeferencing the scenarios. The study’s main methodological contribution lies in generating spatial robust and distinctive scenarios, specifically named for this research, that portray potential future land utilization patterns in the study area. These scenarios are consistent, probable, and plausible, ranked by their probability of occurrence, including Wounded City, Industrial City, Tired Farmer, Beautiful City, and Green and Peaceful City. For instance, the Wounded City scenario anticipates the depletion of natural land features due to urban and industrial expansion, impacting water resources, forests, and rangelands. Moreover, the findings across all scenarios highlight the adverse impacts of agricultural development on water resources, forests, and rangelands, emphasizing the need for informed land management strategies. These findings empower decision-makers to understand the consequences of present decisions and land use transformations, facilitating decision-making in regional land use planning for sustainable and resilient development amidst complex and uncertain challenges.
This chapter of the New York City Panel on Climate Change 4 (NPCC4) report discusses the many intersecting social, ecological, and technological-infrastructure dimensions of New York City and their interactions that are critical to address in order to transition to and secure a climate-adapted future for all New Yorkers. The authors provide an assessment of current approaches to "future visioning and scenarios" across community and city level initiatives and examine diverse dimensions of the NYC urban system to reduce risk and vulnerability and enable a future adapted NYC. Methods for the integration of community and stakeholder ideas about what would make NYC thrive with scientific and technical information on the possibilities presented by different policies and actions is discussed. This chapter synthesizes the state of knowledge on how different communities of scholarship or practice envision futures and provides brief descriptions of the social-demographic and housing, transportation, energy, nature-based, and health futures and many other subsystems of the complex system of NYC that will all interact to determine NYC futures.
This paper builds on the expansion of urban ecology from a biologically based discipline—ecology in the city—to an increasingly interdisciplinary field—ecology of the city—to a transdisciplinary, knowledge to action endeavor—an ecology for and with the city. We build on this “prepositional journey” by proposing a transformative shift in urban ecology, and we present a framework for how the field may continue this shift. We conceptualize that urban ecology is in a state of flux, and that this shift is needed to transform urban ecology into a more engaged and action based field, and one that includes a diversity of actors willing to participate in the future of their cities. In this transformative shift, these actors will engage, collaborate, and participate in a continuous spiral of knowledge → action → knowledge spiral and back to knowledge loop, with the goal of co producing sustainable and resilient solutions to myriad urban challenges. Our framework for this transformative shift includes three pathways: (1) a repeating knowledge → action → knowledge spiral of ideas, information, and solutions produced by a diverse community of agents of urban change working together in an “urban sandbox”; (2) incorporation of a social–ecological–technological systems framework in this spiral and expanding the spiral temporally to include the “deep future,” where future scenarios are based on a visioning of seemingly unimaginable or plausible future states of cities that are sustainable and resilient; and (3) the expansion of the spiral in space, to include rural areas and places that are not yet cities. The three interrelated pathways that define the transformative shift demonstrate the power of an urban ecology that has moved beyond urban systems science and into a realm where collaborations among diverse knowledges and voices are working together to understand cities and what is urban while producing sustainable solutions to contemporary challenges and envisioning futures of socially, ecologically, and technologically resilient cities. We present case study examples of each of the three pathways that make up this transformative shift in urban ecology and discuss both limitations and opportunities for future research and action with this transdisciplinary broadening of the field.
The paper features the most probable visions of development of the general education school obtained from the research project Futuristic Scenarios of the Lithuanian General Education School. The study used the Delphi method to develop futuristic scenarios and extrapolate the most probable trajectories of school development. Sixty-one experts in education including academics, school administrators, teachers and students completed an online Delphi survey designed by the project partners. Based on the findings, four futuristic scenarios are proposed: (1) The School of Eco Care; (2) The School of Exclusion; (3) The School for the Market; and (4) The School of Individual Meanings. These findings capture the (un)realistic and (un)preferable tendencies in our rapidly changing world, the implications and possible benefits of the scenarios.
محیط، به طور خاص محیط ساخته شده نقش مهمی در پویایی بیماری و تعیین سلامت افراد دارد و همچنین تأثیر زیادی در مهار بیماریهای مزمن و واگیردار در انسانها دارد. همهگیریهای بزرگ و محلی به طور یکسان بر روند جنگها، سرنوشت ملل و پیشرفت تمدن تأثیر گذاشته و امپراتوریها را تعیین کرده و باعث میشود عفونتها بازیگران تاریخ درام بشریت باشند. سناریونگاری، تکنیکی است که با در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیتهای محیطی، چندین چشم انداز متفاوت از آینده را ارائه میدهد. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی، از حیث روش پیمایشی در سطح اکتشافی و مبتنی بر رویکرد آیندهپژوهی صورت گرفته است.مطالعه حاضر با عملیاتی کردن چارچوب تابآوری، یک رویکرد ظریفتر و جامعتر را برای بهینهسازی برنامههای مهار و سیاستهای کاهش با استفاده از شاخص-های موثر در تابآوری اجتماعی کلانشهرهای ایران با نمونه موردی کلانشهر اهواز با رویکرد آیندهپژوهی در مورد شیوع بیماریهای همهگیر ارائه میدهد. نیروهای پیشران با روشدلفی مشخص، و سپس این عوامل براساس میزان اهمیت و عدمقطعیت، اولویتبندیشده و حیاتیترین عوامل مشخص، و برای نوشتن سناریوهای محتمل از نرمافزار آیندهپژوهی (Micmac) استفاده شده است. در مرحله سناریوپردازی، تعداد 36 متتغیر کلی شناسایی و در ادامه در ماتریس اثرات متقاطع در این نرمافزار تعریف شدند. با توجه به یافتههای پژوهش از بین این عوامل شاخص تورم تاثیرگذارترین عامل کلیدی در تابآوری اجتماعیاین کلانشهر در مواجهه با بیماریهای واگیردار میباشد تمرکز نهادها وحاشیهنشینی دارای بیشترین اثرگذاری مستقیم و همچنین آمادگی اجتماعی و توانایی انطباق دارای بیشترین ارزش سطری محاسبه شده، و بیشترین میزان اثرگذاری غیرمستقیم بر دیگر متغیرها بودهاند.
Although numerous risk mitigation strategies have been developed for specific types of risks in supply chain risk management (SCRM), there is a lack of concrete and generic frameworks for an integrated network SCRM process. Consequently, it is often challenging to trace the process by which conclusions are drawn from previous research studies. The main goal is to create a framework that includes articulating SCRM issues, ranking risk variables, and creating mitigation strategies. Using the “scenario method” offers a comprehensive perspective that is displayed in a single table and helps identify different options. The extended supply chain's potential tools are used to create a unique framework for scenario building in risk mitigation plans in this research. The research demonstrates the importance of the framework and how it may help organizations implement strong strategies based on compelling scenarios through a thorough case study.
Purpose
Organizations face challenges in volatile, uncertain, complex and ambiguous (VUCA) environments. It is vital to manage the change’s rate and magnitude in new and different ways to stay competitive. This study focuses on the phenomenon of scenario planning that can help organizations proactively plan for, react and adapt to VUCA forces if and when they occur.
Design/methodology/approach
Based on an extensive academic and practitioner literature review, we posit that corporate scenario planning involves eight different practical applications and associated benefits. These include risk identification, assessing uncertainty, organizational learning, options analysis, strategy validation and testing, complex decision-making, strategic nimbleness and innovation. We offer a novel typology and propose a more complete and holistic model of the scenario planning application and its intended outcomes. Mini-case studies from various sectors illustrate the process. The model demonstrates the relationship between different benefit-driven applications - inputs, process and output benefits – and identifies opportunities for further research.
Findings
A previous typology study classified “what” and “why” related scenario planning research and literature. However, the why or associated benefits were not broken down at any level of detail, representing a gap in explaining the actual value of this management tool. The current study proposes a novel “why” focused typology of scenario planning benefits based on an extensive literature review. The novel typology adorned several benefits of scenario planning in an integrated model explained using systems theory. These benefits included risk, uncertainty, options analysis, strategic flexibility, complex decision-making, strategy testing and validation, innovation and organizational learning.
Originality/value
First time in the literature, the relationship between input, process and output benefits of scenario planning is explained using systems theory. The novel typology proposed illustrates the practical applications of scenario planning in one complete model.
The coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic spread rapidly around the world, generating economic shocks with pace and intensity above those observed in previous crises. Faced with this pandemic scenario, several economic sectors such as tourism, health, transportation were seriously affected. This paper focuses on the tourism sector which has been affected by various restrictions on passenger transport, the end of the free movement of people between countries, and the insecurity of travelers. This paper uses the Method Unified for Strategic Prospective Planning (Momento) for a company in the tourism sector so that it is possible to deal more effectively with uncertainties about the coming years. The methodology applied here can be a strategic-prospective planning proposal for this sector. The study based on the collected data allowed the creation of three possible future scenarios, which could support the creation of action plans and help the company's decision-makers to avoid themselves in the worst-case scenario and maximize the use of the best-case scenario. From this study, it was possible to bring greater knowledge to the tourism company about which are the variables that can most impact its business in a 5-year horizon, because the approach by the Momento method allowed the structuring and analysis of the variables and uncertainties observed in the construction of the prospective scenarios of tourism and its business in the middle of the socioeconomic instability experienced in the current period of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Many challenges posed by the current Anthropocene epoch require fundamental transformations to humanity's relationships with the rest of the planet. Achieving such transformations requires that humanity improve its understanding of the current situation and enhance its ability to imagine pathways toward alternative, preferable futures. We review advances in addressing these challenges that employ systematic and structured thinking about multiple possible futures (futures-thinking). Over seven decades, especially the past two, approaches to futures-thinking have helped people from diverse backgrounds reach a common understanding of important issues, underlying causes, and pathways toward optimistic futures. A recent focus has been the stimulation of imagination to produce new options. The roles of futures-thinking in breaking unhelpful social addictions and in conflict resolution are key emerging topics. We summarize cognitive, cultural, and institutional constraints on the societal uptake of futures-thinking, concluding that none are insurmountable once understood.
Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Environment and Resources, Volume 48 is October 2023. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.
Lietuvos mokyklos ateities scenarijai: „kas iš to?“
Santrauka. Straipsnyje pristatomi mokslo projekto rezultatai, kuriais remiantis sukurti keturi futuristiniai Lietuvos mokyklos scenarijai ir bandoma atsakyti į klausimą, kas iš to? Straipsnio idėja brandinta kartu su vykstančiais projekto įžvalgų pristatymais viešojoje akademinėje erdvėje, kurioje dažniausiai skambėjo klausimas – kas iš to? Kokia praktinė nauda? Todėl straipsnyje, pateikus scenarijų kūrimo metodologiją ir aprašius pačius scenarijus, pereinama prie svarstymų, kokia nauda iš tokių ar panašaus tipo scenarijų, kodėl jie kuriami ir kokia gali būti būtent šiame projekte pateiktų scenarijų nauda.
Pagrindiniai žodžiai: Lietuva, mokykla, scenarijai, Delfi tyrimo metodas.
El presente estudio es una amplia revisión bibliográfica sobre la creciente industria de eventos, a través de un profundo análisis conceptual y evolutivo en la organización de actos como herramienta de comunicación y de marketing.
This research attempts to distinguish the definitions of foresight and prediction and the differences between them based upon literature reviewing of fundamentals of futures studies and their historical background. In this respect, we introduced foresight schools and explained the role of scenario planning in foresight. Also, We addressed the quantitative and qualitative foresight methods, advantages and disadvantages, and reviewed the rational numbers of scenarios and criteria to validate scenarios. From the methodological point of view, this paper is a descriptive-analytical one, in which the history of future researches and foresight and their methods were introduced and compared. Depending on the purpose and scope of the project, different foresight methods are proposed. Major approaches to scenario planning were reviewed, and their strengths and weaknesses were analyzed. Attempts to explain and illustrate the concepts showed that scenario-based approaches that use both quantitative and qualitative methods together are more efficient than single qualitative or quantitative methods and their results are more valid for scenario planning. According to the analysis, considering details and data management, three to five scenarios seem reasonable. Finally, to validate scenarios, "internal consistency" and "plausibility" are the most popular and used validation criteria in scenario planning.
This paper discusses scenario building—searching for key variables, identifying the actors, their activities, roles, alliances, and conflicts, and analyzing seeds of change. A case study for energy conservation in the Indian cement industry is used to explain the approach of scenario building.Indirect relationships having a greater influence than direct relationships are used to identify the key actors, objectives, and activities. For this purpose, interpretive structural modeling has been used to develop direct relationship matrices. Fuzzy considerations are superimposed to prepare fuzzy direct relationship matrices, which are then used to develop stabilized fuzzy indirect relationship matrices. The driver power determined from the fuzzy indirect relationship matrices is used to determine the hierarchy of variables and identify the key variable of the system.Actor's strategy tables are used to study the alliances and conflicts among the actors. The extent of alliance and conflict is also examined. Factors influencing changes in the role of various actors are identified.
Senior managers formulate strategy to maximize shareholder value; supply chain planners run optimization models to minimize costs. Combining scenario planning with supply-chain planning achieves the best of both worlds, which leads to long-term competitive advantage.
Scenarios are typically defined as stories describing different but equally plausible futures that are developed using methods that systematically gather perceptions about certainties and uncertainties.Scenarios are not intended to be truthful, but rather provocative and helpful in strategy formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible frameworks for action.Trust speaks to persuasion and how stories of the future become trustworthy and garner credibility when traditional measures are fundamentally insufficient and irrelevant. That is, if we take as an assumption that we are not transpiring for truth or truthfulness in scenarios, then what becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus?This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario planning in light of conceptual understandings of trust. Such an inquiry highlights that scenarios have value inscriptions and varying degrees of normatively which are indebted to the particularities of their production
Delivering modern and responsive public services requires informed innovation drawing on a combination of design, planning and evaluative skills. The development of the national 24-hour telephone helpline service NHS Direct provides a case study demonstrating how, through using these skills, OR has been instrumental in achieving public service innovation. Firstly, OR analysts led strategic design and scenario-planning work, assessing the evidence on the performance of ‘direct’ services here and around the world and developing scenarios of an NHS where much greater use was made of modern communication technology, such as telephone call centres, to provide services. Secondly, we did modelling work to help determine the size, distribution and staffing of the call centres required in England to meet the likely demand and satisfy service performance targets. Thirdly, we set out evaluation criteria and developed performance-monitoring systems. NHS Direct has been one of the best-received innovations in the history of the NHS and Operational Research has made a crucial contribution to its development.Journal of the Operational Research Society (2003) 54, 1022–1028. doi:10.1057/palgrave.jors.2601617
Purpose
To construct and test, through its application to a real case study, a methodology that generates contingencies for the evolution of a company or an industry's reference business model (BM) under the impact of a technology innovation.
Design/methodology/approach
The paper draws on theoretical predicaments of organizational development and scenario planning as well as more recently published works (2001‐2004) on BM design and change in order to build the primary steps of the methodology. A contingency approach is applied for selecting among alternatives the most suitable future BM. The usefulness and applicability of the provided methodology are proved through a real case study that concerns changing the exhibition's industry reference BM under the impact of a mobile innovation.
Findings
The proposed methodology is primarily useful in cases where a strategic manager wishes to draw and assess not one totally new BM but a set of scenarios that reflect alternative configurations for its current BM evolution. Such a methodology needs to be complemented with a contingency framework for guiding the selection of the scenario that better suits the internal and external environment of the company.
Research limitations/implications
It is expected that related theories, such as the theory of Industrial Organization and the theory of Network Economics, also need to be examined under the light of BM change to identify and cross‐validate factors that contribute to the design and assessment of BMs.
Practical implications
The ultimate utility of the proposed methodology is as a road‐map for leading change in the value‐creation logic of a firm, taking advantage of an advanced technology solution. By continuously changing their BM, and identifying new ways to deliver value to their customers, firms aspire to obtain and sustain a competitive advantage in high‐velocity environments.
Originality/value
This paper fulfils an identified research gap for a structured approach towards changing the BM of a firm, which introduces a technology innovation by keeping the principles of the old (traditional) business logic and taking into account the effects incurred from the firm's internal and external environment.
Changes in industrial R&D will accelerate over the next 10 years. Scenario planning indicates that there are several drivers of change, the most prominent of which are information technology and globalization. People in the industrial R&D laboratory of 2008 will be move risk-taking and business-oriented, with skills that are constantly being upgraded. Technical intelligence will be fully integrated throughout the firm and far more comprehensive than today. Technical work will be move efficient and effective, utilizing a wide variety of outside resources. Flexible organizational structures and true enterprise integration will capitalize on a new era of creativity for growth and competitiveness. Leadership and skillful management will be critical elements of these evolving processes.
This paper describes a statistical methodology that can be deployed in order to conduct evidence-based scenario planning. Scenario-planning techniques have recently become widespread in strategic consultancy, market research and government planning, but methodological vagueness often results in scenarios that are excessively arbitrary, implausible or non-specific in their outputs. By detailing the Monte Carlo process, via which a set of scenarios were constructed for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the authors argue that it is possible to take a non-linear, non-deterministic but empirically grounded approach to the formulation of strategic and contingency plans for the future. The process is explained in such a way that it can be adopted by industry practitioners, with key lessons detailed for future scenario-planning exercises.
Social science in general, and perhaps Norwegian social science in particular, has traditionally been sceptical when it comes to the potential for systematising predictions into fully fledged tools for future planning, such as scenario-building. The philosophy of science offers a string of reasons why such prudence is warranted. Still, not the least for practical reasons - one of them being the need somehow to meet the expectancies emanating from a budgeting system measuring "utility" in terms of the contribution science can make to concrete problem-solving as experienced by planners both within and outwith the public sector - there are sound and immediate reasons why prudence ought to be kept in abeyance. Furthermore, it should be possible to circumvent some of the problems involved by relaxing our understanding of time as linear. If one proceeds down this lane, scenario-planning may be a better candidate for policy-planning than traditional planning techniques, which tend to be unilinear and economistic. In order to substantiate such a view, the article traces the emergence of scenario-building as part of the general planning impulse during the last century, reviews major Norwegian scenario projects to date, and proposes a new method dubbed perspectivistic scenario-building.
The single most important foundation stone of business success today is leadership-especially visionary leadership. General Electric, Coca-Cola, Microsoft, Dell Computer, and Wal-Mart-all visionary companies. What do those companies have in common? Each is obsessive about what it does, and never stops emphasizing that. In Built to Last: Successful Habits of Visionary Companies, James Collins and Jerry Porras note qualities that truly visionary companies have in common: They possess a bedrock faith and uncommon passion for what they're in business to do. They navigate the business world with extraordinary deftness-adapting their strategies, operating goals, and culture as necessary while remaining true to an enduring set of values. They have a, core ideology (from which their values spring) that is unchanging and that transcends immediate customer demands and market conditions. They allow the unifying ideology to guide and inspire people, creating enormous solidarity and esprit de corps. a They subscribe to BHAGS-"big, hairy, audacious goals." Because a company doesn't so much create its core ideology as arrive at it through an organic process of selfreflection and action planning, it's critical that every company develop strategic visioning and process tools to help it reassess and, if necessary, reframe its organizational vision periodically. You can use strategic visioning tools to help you and your organization engage in breakthrough thinking, scenario planning, product imagineering, and leadership competency building. Information developed from such tools coalesces leadership thinking around business priorities and creates a new foundation of empirical data and shared opinions.
The paper describes process of scenario planning. Scenario planning is a recognised tool, used by organisations and institutions as part of their strategic planning process. It provides individuals with the opportunity to ask the "what if" questions - to "rehearse" how they might respond, should a certain event or trend happen in the future. For organisations it provides an invaluable opportunity to have a strategic discussion around key drivers and critical uncertainties in their operating environments. This process is also demonstrated by a short scenario planning example, exercised in the IST-1999-29088 PRISMA Project funded within the 5th Framework Programme.
Changes in industrial R&D will accelerate over the next 10 years. Scenario planning indicates that there are several drivers of change, the most prominent of which are information technology and globalization. People in the industrial R&D laboratory of 2008 will be more risk-taking and business-oriented, with skills that are constantly being upgraded. Technical intelligence will be fully integrated throughout the firm and far more comprehensive than today. Technical work will be more efficient and effective, utilizing a wide variety of outside resources. Flexible organizational structures and true enterprise integration will capitalize on a new era of creativity for growth and competitiveness. Leadership and skillful management will be critical elements of these evolving processes.
Major shifts in the business environment can make whole investment strategies obsolete. In order to anticipate such shifts, the Royal Dutch/Shell Group of Companies uses scenario analysis, a method it pioneered three decades ago. Given that most investments are irreversible, scenario planning can be combined with real options analysis to help identify options in the future; help time the decision to exercise a real option; and provide an important input in the process of evaluating real options.
Scenario building is an essential element for working on, and creating, alternative futures. This paper, based on the work at the Institute of Alternative Futures, discusses the use of scenarios in the context of community development and explores three basic types of scenarios—`the official future', `hard times' and paradigm shift or visionary scenarios. With examples from Washington and elsewhere, the paper tries to show how communities can reinvent themselves and meet the challenges of the future with the aid of scenarios.
Managers facing substantial uncertainties find it helpful to construct scenarios describing alternative futures. The scenarios reveal a variety of possible futures that managers might face, and the scenario construction process can offer insights into the source of future uncertainties. As part of the scenario-building process it is useful to talk with people who are knowledgeable about the events depicted in the scenarios. But in some political environments, these people may be reluctant to talk openly about their concerns. This article describes an approach based on electronic meeting systems in which participants can discuss sensitive events anonymously through a network of personal computers. The article presents scenarios for the business future of Hong Kong following its reunification with the People's Republic of China.
The twin roadmapping and scenario planning toolsets that firms have been using recently have the potential to provide operational and strategic-level managers with substantial assistance. However, their inherent limitations are also evident. The application of such an approach can enable teams and companies to achieve the intuitive shared experience of meaning critical to true understanding.
Managers choosing which R&D projects to fund typically rely on rank-ordering heuristics when other valuation methods are not applicable. These heuristics are powerful, but they have a number of limitations, among them: they overlook the impact of each project on a portfolio of projects; they rely on incomplete selection criteria; and they ignore technical interdependencies between projects. These short-comings can result in a sub-optimal allocation of resources, both financial and human, and the exposure of the company to significant strategic risk. Strategic Flexibility is an alternative project selection method. This framework draws upon scenario-building and real options concepts to help managers formulate and implement strategy in high-commitment, high-uncertainty environments. "Jupiter Research" used this approach to review its project portfolio, achieving better outcomes than could have been obtained with typical project selection methods.
This article examines how scenarios can be more than a futures studies tool, and looks at the necessary epistemological, methodological, and ethical criteria for such scenarios. The aims that guide scenarios and, hence, those that can spring from a human and social perspective are considered. In the authors' view, scenarios tend to broaden mental frontiers because they are multidisciplinary, multidimensional, and drawn from different experiences, “ways of knowing” and personalities. An overview of the various ways of planning and developing scenarios is presented on the basis of the recent literature on the subject. The overview is followed by a presentation of the basic procedures culled from the authors' own international experience. The need for adaptation and the recognition of differences, such as regional variations, are also highlighted. Common characteristics are described with some illustrative cases, for example, the futures-thinking exercise undertaken by a major religious order. Indeed, the cases reveal how the scenario-building procedure may be adapted to different contexts given its flexibility. The essential message is that the effective use of scenarios requires humility, adaptability, and persistence.
Today the question of what scenarios are is unclear except with regard to one point-they have become extremely popular. Many people see scenarios as forecasts of some future condition while others disavow that their scenarios are forecasts. Yet looking at scenarios that do not come labeled as forecasts or non-forecasts, it is difficult to tell them apart. The purpose of the scenario is at a meta level, since the scenario usually does not speak for itself in terms of its purpose. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Inc.
The paper presents the results of an application of judgemental modelling to the development and analysis of scenarios in the pharmaceutical industry. It describes how the models were constructed and evaluated by a group of executives responsible for the scenario generation, and uses perceptual mapping techniques to represent the differing perspectives. The paper considers the effectiveness of different approaches to support group decision making and how judgemental modelling aided the analysis of the outcomes. The initial results suggest that the combination of the structured decision approach and the visual representational technique is a powerful managerial tool in such situations. Proposals for its future development and suggestions for further research are explored.
This paper discusses scenarios based on two world views, each giving a perspective on the futurity of organizational actions. The first looks at a problematic situation as something to be clarified through rationalistic reasoning. Scenario building is examined as a way to turn intuitive knowledge of a problematic situation into clear research questions that may be explored by systems analysis and forecasting. However, a distinction must be made between the predictable and the indeterminate in a situation; in other words, a characterization of the future in terms of multiple scenarios. The scenario planner alternates intuitive exploration of the situation with rational analysis and forecasting in an iterative way until a satisfactory description of the future has been derived. An alternative processual perspective suggests that organizations construct their reality socially, in an ongoing conversation. Scenarios help organizations explore unknown territory by allowing the internal strategic conversation to be linked to other relevant conversations taking place elsewhere. In conclusion, scenarios introduce the required variety of ideas and also lead to a gradual alignment in understanding of what the new situation means for the group and what its collective response should be. Therein lies one of the fundamental dilemmas of organizational learning.
This is an account of the US Naval Security Group Command's (NSG) search for strategic management during a time of unprecedented change. In response to dramatic shifts resulting from the end of the Cold War, Congressional pressures for cross-service co-operation, and the emergence of new technologies, the NSG engaged in a six-year strategic planning process. The process helped the group refocus and develop strategies better suited to new demands for military preparedness. The process was incremental and eclectic; early leadership came from middle managers, rather than top officials. The process began with a ‘quick and dirty’ planning session initiated by department heads to deal with an immediate crisis and gained momentum and top-level involvement as the first session and subsequent strategic planning efforts showed results. The process was guided by a strategic planning framework specifically designed for public and non-profit organisations and relied on a variety of strategic planning tools and techniques, including stakeholder analyses, SWOT analyses and capturing the insights gained from scenario planning using the newer cognitive methods such as cognitive and oval mapping. This article provides a chronology of events over a six-year period, explores some of the strategic planning tools and techniques used, details results achieved and discusses some of the major lessons learned.
This paper reviews the scenario planning literature looking for answers for the following questions: How do qualitative and quantitative scenario methods differ and what are the advantages and disadvantages? What methods exist for quantitative scenario planning? Particularly quantitative scenario methods often lead to a large number of so-called “raw” scenarios that need to be further refined, discussed, and verbally described. How do scenario planners select raw scenarios for further exploration and how many should they choose? How is the problem of validation addressed in scenario studies?
A simulation-based decision support system for AHP (Analytic Hierarchy Process) is presented in this paper. The software, named DDM (Dynamic Decision Making), is applicable to dynamic decision scenarios where probabilistic interactions exist between the factors in the AHP hierarchy. Decision scenarios are generated using probability information specified by the user. The output of the simulation is the relative frequency of the selection of each alternative rather than a single final selection. The decision maker will evaluate the distribution histogram and make final selection based on his or her own inherent disposition to risk. DDM can be used for forecasting or for evaluating strategic planning options.
The authors describe a case study of scenario-based decision-making to develop a research and development strategy for oil and gas exploration and production. They develop decision-focused scenarios having established the ‘decision-focus’ and assessed the dynamics of the external environment. Having identified the strategy alternatives and interpreted the scenarios for R & D implications, a flexible strategy is developed and the process is reviewed.
Long-term forecasting is not a very successful enterprise. Some of the most important events of the last 2 years, particularly the political upheavals in Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union, and the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, caught most observers off guard—even knowledgeable ones. In the oil industry, experts have sometimes been able to suggest, but rarely to predict, the key turning points in crude oil prices. Time after time, events that are considered improbable or even implausible occur.The future is too important to be ignored, notwithstanding this difficulty. The Shell approach to strategic planning is, instead of forecasts, to use scenarios, a set of ‘stories’ about alternative possible futures. These stories promote a discussion of possibilities other than the ‘most likely’ one and encourage the consideration of ‘what if’ questions. Although scenarios deal with the future, they are essentially a way of structuring the overwhelming, confusing information we have about the present. One of the important uses for this structure is to help us recognize more of what is going on around us, including the early, weak signals of change.Good scenarios are challenging, plausible and internally consistent. They also illuminate the uncertainties and issues that are critical for the future (in the case of this paper, for the future of the energy industry to the year 2010). Scenarios lead to better decisions if they improve our understanding of the world.This paper outlines two scenarios prepared in the Group Planning Coordination of Shell International Petroleum Company. Two notes are important. First, the author has summarized a much larger body of work to which approximately twenty members of Group Planning contributed, under the leadership of Kees van der Heijden. Second, this work was completed in the summer of 1989 and so, naturally, were we to re-formulate the scenarios now, our assessments in many areas would be very different. The value of this paper is therefore less in the content of the scenarios than in the particular approach to thinking about the future.
Recently, increasing emphasis is being placed by corporate planners and forecasters on the use of scenario analysis to produce forecasts of future business environments and to identify conditions leading to major changes in these enviroments. This article compares some of the major approaches to scenario analysis, including intuitive logics (SRI International), trend-impact analysis (The Futures Group), and cross-impact analysis (The Center for Futures Research and Battelle Columbus Division). The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are discussed as well.
In view of the importance of an accurate appreciation of the business environment in Australia to the development of its corporate strategy, Shell Australia commissioned a five-man Study Team of independent academics to conduct a study into the long-term economic, social, political-strategic and technological changes affecting Australia. This article reports on the major results of that study whose main features were a survey of major trends and the description of two detailed scenarios of Australian developments to the year 2000. The study is not only of interest to readers concerned with Australia's future, but also as a result of an experiment in interaction and cross-fertilization between corporate planners and outside academic experts.
Reluctant reconciliation is taking shape in South Africa. The forced marriage between the National Party and the African National Congress results from a balance of forces where neither side can defeat the other. The emergence of multiracial domination has surprised most observers who saw the battle about legalized racism as a clear moral issue. Developments have also been widely misunderstood owing to the tendency to apply false colonial analogies or popular stereotypes of violent tribalism. Scenario-planning exercises enjoy great popularity in a society beset by anxiety and ideological confusion. Rather than reviewing the various scenarios sketched by others, this article selects three courses as played out in other countries and compares South Africa to these models. By exploring the similarities between South Africa and Zimbabwe, Yugoslavia and Germany, lessons are drawn about desirable policies in the post-apartheid era.
The use of foresight as a tool in national research and technology planning exercises has increased markedly over the past decade, as a consequence of the pressures of the emerging knowledge economy, constraints on government spending, the new emphasis in organisations on learning, networks and relationships, and changes in the structures of knowledge production. It is therefore timely to invest in evaluation of and learning from these experiences. That the business management focus in addressing the future is far more on issues of structure and culture, such as flexibility, adaptability and tolerance for ambiguity, than it is on tools such as foresight, suggests the need for a much closer linking of foresight to other company considerations. Three particular areas of challenge are identified. The first is linking foresight more effectively with strategy and action, through better engagement of and with key stakeholders. The second is the development and refinement of the range of foresight techniques with a clear appreciation of their appropriate arena of application. The third is to acknowledge the cultural dimension of foresight, and to apply it with an awareness of the potential cultural constraints. An alternative framework for foresight, modelled on ''participatory policy analysis'', is proposed to improve the interface of foresight with political and administrative decision making process.
This article develops research-based scenarios of future service encounters. Views from senior customer service directors in 14 major service companies regarding future service encounters and future roles and capabilities of customer service professionals were gathered. This was considered in the light of secondary data regarding technology and socio-economic projections. Short scenarios of future service encounters around key dimensions of technology, time and money are presented. Ways in which scenario planning may be used to aid planning and proactive business strategy in the service sector are discussed.
This article outlines a scenario planning process for building successful World Wide Web related businesses. In addition to outlining five tips for Internet content providers, the article describes four alternative scenarios for the future of the Internet and identifies the 16 most relevant drivers of those scenarios. The scenarios—written as though it is the year 2000—describe alternative views of how the Internet will be used in the future, which technologies will emerge and which business models will be successful. They describe different environments businesses should prepare for. The drivers are the specific issues that will cause the scenarios to emerge. The five tips are: follow the people; the old Internet is not the new one; be radical; be robust; focus on niches.
This article links Strategic Value Analysis and scenario thinking. Both are tools concerned with the future direction of the business, but the two have often been used independently of one another. By pulling them together using a 5 step approach we give structure to the external environmental factors which can impact on a business's value and value estimates to the consequences of scenarios.
This article attempts to verify some assumptions evident in the scenario planning literature through the application of quantitative measures. The Dimensions of the Learning Organization Questionnaire is used to measure participant perceptions of the learning organization characteristics pre- and post-scenario planning intervention. Results are discussed, limitations are identified and clarified, and conclusions are drawn with speculations and refinements for future research. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Scenario planning is the most widely used member of a family of strategic planning approaches which use discrete states to explore management issues. Conventional approaches to scenario-based planning emphasise the clarity of using a small number of extrapolations from the present. Recent work has seen the future as a network of states around which movement can take place under the control of various parties. This requires a richer homogeneous set of scenarios and Rhyne's Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) technique has served as the basis for that state generation process. FAR has some disadvantages. It can be cumbersome and, more importantly, the discriminants of the states are unchanged throughout each cycle of the process. It operates by establishing a large number of possible futures and then clustering these into coherent sets. An alternative approach is presented which grows neighbouring states step by step from existing, plausible self-consistent states. A network of locally related states is thereby established on which basis transition-based planning can be carried out. The relationship of the method to FAR is described, and its use illustrated by an example.
This article considers the particular challenges to organisations facing major change in turbulent times. It briefly reviews the use of visioning tools, especially scenario planning, to support the process of developing strategies requiring major change, and the communication of these plans to key employees. However, it deduces that written scenarios may not adequately portray the dynamic nature of the change, nor provide managers with a vivid enough picture of the post-change environment. System dynamics has been identified as a powerful tool for bringing such a dynamic view, and case examples are offered which use both the diagramming techniques in a qualitative manner and quantitative models to simulate the possible futures. Such simulators enable managers to pre-experience the changed environment, preparing them better to face the transients of the change implementation and the challenges of managing the post-change situation. Future developments and uses of system dynamics in 'computer-aided visioning' are considered.
In high-velocity, intensely competitive markets, traditional approaches to strategy give way to "competing on the edge" - creating a flow of temporary, shifting competitive advantages. The author's research on entrepreneurial and diversified businesses demonstrates that successful firms in these markets have fast, high-quality, and widely supported strategic decision-making processes. These firms use four approaches to create strategy: 1. Management teams build collective intuition through frequent meetings and real-time metrics that enhance their ability to see threats and opportunities early and accurately less successful teams rarely meet with their colleagues in a group and make fewer and larger strategic choices, relying on market analyses and future trend projections that are idiosyncratic to the decision. 2. Executives stimulate conflict by assembling diverse teams, challenging them through frame-breaking tactics, such as scenario planning and role playing, and stressing multiple alternatives to improve the quality of decision making. less successful performers move quickly to a few alternatives, analyze the best ones, and make a speedy decision. 3. Effective decision makers locus on maintaining decision pace, not pushing decision speed. They sustain momentum through the methods of rime pacing, prototyping, and consensus with qualification. ineffective decision makers stress the rarity and significance of strategic choices. Because the decision then looms large, they oscillate between procrastination and "shotgun" strategic choices against deadlines. 4. Managers on successful teams rake a negative view of politicking. Their perspective is collaborative, not competitive. These teams emphasize common goals, clear turf, and having fun. less effective decision makers have a competitive orientation and lack a sense of teamwork. Together these approaches direct executive attention reward strategic decision making as the cornerstone of effective strategy.
For several decades, business has operated according to the tenets of neoclassical economic theory, where the primary obligation of corporations is to maximize profit for shareholders. However, the larger social mandate for business has changed, represented by the rise of language such as "sustainable development", "corporate social responsibility" (CSR) and "stakeholder groups." Nevertheless, the theoretical shift implied by the use of such language has not occurred. Issues of sustainable development and CSR continue to be justified in the terms of neoclassical economic theory through the rationalization of "doing well by doing good".
It is rather difficult to forecast emerging technologies as there is no historical data available. In such cases, the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis have provided useful data. This paper presents the forecasts for three emerging technology areas by integrating the use of bibliometrics and patent analysis into well-known technology forecasting tools such as scenario planning, growth curves and analogies. System dynamics is also used to be able to model the dynamic ecosystem of the technologies and their diffusion. Technologies being forecasted are fuel cell, food safety and optical storage technologies. Results from these three applications help us to validate the proposed methods as appropriate tools to forecast emerging technologies.
In a recent issue of Futuribles, authors from the European Commission’s Forward Studies Unit outlined five scenarios for Europe 2010. The scenarios were constructed using the so-called “shaping actors, shaping factors” method, claimed by the authors as specific to their unit. In this article, Michel Godet reacts to that claim and makes two fundamental criticisms of their methodology.
Strategic planning has changed dramatically since its inception in the early 1970s. Having survived its original design flaws, it has evolved into a viable system of strategic management (or strategic thinking). In an effort to be more specific about the nature and extent of these changes, the author surveyed nearly 50 corporations in a variety of countries and industries to determine their current practices and the changes that have occurred over the past 5–7 years.Among the more notable and important changes are a marked shift of planning responsibility from staff to line managers; decentralization of strategic planning to business units (though corporate-level components retain key responsibilities); and vastly increased attention to the changing market, competitive and technological environment.Planning systems have become more sophisticated in their selection of planning techniques. There is far less reliance on a single technique (such as the growth-share matrix or the experience curve), and a greater willingness to use techniques (such as scenario planning and total quality management) that are less mechanistic in their approach and more sensitive to the critical uncertainty of many of the variables that planning must address.Perhaps the most provocative finding, however, is the growing emphasis on organization and culture as critical ingredients in the execution of strategy. This change represents a recognition that the values, motivation, and behaviour of the organization's members are critical determinants of corporate performance—and so of success or failure in implementing strategy.