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Evolution and Behavior of System Structure: Eight Perspectives for Examining Complex Issues
Abstract
Quantitative models based on systems thinking and system science are routinely used to explore and anticipate the likely behavior of broad and highly complex issues and problems. While such models can provide valuable insights, they are invariably simplistic and frequently face controversy in both structure and quantitative details. The end result is that, while they may prove valuable in understanding the dynamics of the system, their value in understanding the evolutionary and behavioral tendencies of the system may be quite limited. A qualitative approach based upon structural perspectives can suggest tendencies beyond the scope of quantitative models. This paper presents eight interrelated perspectives for examining a complex issue or problem and for inferring potential evolutionary tendencies or behavior based upon the structural characteristics of the system under study. Experience suggests these perspectives may be useful not only in dealing with qualitative system models, but also in validating and troubleshooting quantitative models. Good system dynamic models contribute to deep understanding of an issue or topic and offer insight to those striving to understand systems or remediate problems. The literature of system dynamics work predominantly focuses on the current situation and near-term forecasts, where quantitative system dynamic models can be particularly accurate and useful. As the time-horizon for understanding the system is extended, the validity of models (system dynamics or otherwise) invariably decreases due to omitted information and mechanisms. In order to build models that are more useful, John Sterman suggests "…modelers must also take care to search for and include in their models the feedback loops, and structures that have not been important in generating dynamics to date but that may become active as the system evolves" (Sterman 2000).
... Boundary conditions, such as relevant discontinuities in customer perceived value and preferences, lead to the implementation of radical technological changes [1]. Besides, limitations of available resources are a common trigger for impending transitions of mature technical systems [2] or even established service industries [3]. Disruptive innovations can be brought also by performing a careful analysis of the possible aspects of value that consumers might care about, such as a way of using further technical or emotional features, resources consumption, maintenance, environmental impact, customer care, end of product lifecycle. ...
... × (monthly real estate expenditure)/ (number of pellet batches potentially produced in a month) Table 7 shows the results of estimated expenditures for the exploited resources, together with the percentage of their inverse total indexes (1/RES j ), and the phases overall values POV j , consequently calculated through equation (2) and subsequently normalized in order to obtain a percentage score. ...
The paper reports an exemplary application in the field of wood pellets production of an original methodology to support business process re-engineering by mapping product requirements to product development phases in order to analyse their contribution to value creation. The methodology has been already published and validated by the authors in different industrial sectors through real case studies, all characterized by well-established business processes, needing improvements to preserve their competitiveness on the marketplace. In this paper the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying process criticalities is tested with regards to industrial processes experiencing under capacities in satisfying the market demand as well as concerning not yet established business ideas. According tothis perspective, the wood pellet production process is a suitable case study. In fact, this industrial sector presents high business opportunities in Italy, since the market demand of such kind of energy sources has grown dramatically in the last five years. However, the poor performance of current industrial processes not yet at a mature stage does not allow the complete exploitation of the biomass resources, thus the market demand of woody fuels remains unsatisfied. The paper first positions the work of the authors with respect to already established business processre-engineering techniques; then summarizes the original methodology and details its application in the biofuel field.
... Attempts have been made to meet the criticism of models in region 3 by adding a qualitative dimension to such models to be able to adapt itself to turbulence and wild cards (Forrest, 2004). In Region 7, experts participate in an interactive manner with the built model to update it as the need arises. ...
Simulation is likely to become a prominent method of theory development. Futures studies have used simulation in different ways such as evaluating scenarios. Nonetheless, the central attributes of computer simulation such as reductionism-based abstraction, determinism and elimination of stakeholders are the main barriers of successful implementation of simulation in FS. In this paper, we would paint the plausible evolutionary panorama of futures of simulation in futures studies after looking at the role of simulation in FS so far. The possible mechanisms and partnerships required to be applied to grapple the above-mentioned difficulties will be enumerated and investigated. These, in three categories, comprise firstly, human-machine interactions such as quasi-game simulations, and scenario visualization, secondly, large-network simulations including crowd sourcing, and thirdly, simulation platforms for replication of emergence. Ergo, crafting a classification of simulation in futures studies and the possible developments will be the main contribution of this paper. A novel double diamond classification will be presented as well which reflects the past and plausible futures of simulation in futures studies.
... Boundary conditions, such relevant discontinuities in customer perceived value and preferences, lead to the implementation of radical technological changes [2]. Besides, limitations of available resources are a common trigger for impending transitions of mature technical systems [3] or even established service industries [4]. Disruptive innovations can be brought also by performing a careful analysis of the possible aspects of value that consumers might care about, such as way of using, further technical or emotional features, resources consumption, maintenance, environmental impact, customer care, end of product lifecycle. ...
The paper describes a methodology to support business process re-engineering by mapping product requirements to product development phases in order to analyze their contribution to value creation. The methodology has been already validated by the authors in different industrial sectors through real case studies [1], that were all characterized by well established business processes, needing improvements to preserve their competitiveness in the marketplace. In this chapter the effectiveness of the methodology in identifying process criticalities is tested with regards to industrial processes experiencing under capacities in satisfying the market demand as well as concerning not yet established business ideas. The task is performed by considering the wood pellet production process as a case study.
System dynamics provides a valuable format for exploring a system and for understanding the behavior of a system. Experience suggests that this particularly true for current and near-term planning. As the time horizon for models is extended and their role becomes predictive, their value generally declines as unmodeled factors exert influence. As a consultant in long-range planning and student in studies of the future, the author has found that the source of model failure generally falls into one of several categories. This paper identifies several common sources of model failure and discusses some steps that may aid in avoiding the problem.
Presents a conceptual framework that can help focus treatment of the contrasts between global and local behavior on the one hand and between continuous and discontinuous behavior on the other. Since that framework describes different perceptions of regulation and stability behavior, it provides the necessary background for a 2nd topic, which concerns the particular causative relations and processes within ecosystems, the influence of external variation on them and their dynamic behavior in time and space. A 3rd topic synthesizes present understanding of the structure and behavior of ecosystems in a way that has considerable generality and organizational power. A 4th connects that understanding to global phenomena on the one hand and local perception and action on the other. -from Author
In his 1983 book, Adaptability, Michael Conrad explored the quantitative relationship between adaptability and adaptation using the conditional 'entropy' of information theory as his primary tool. The conditional entropy can be used to estimate the connectivity of the network of system exchanges, a key indicator of system stability. In fact, the May-Wigner criterion for the stability of linear dynamical systems can be recast using the conditional entropy to help identify the boundary along which adaptability and adaptation are exactly in balance-the 'edge of chaos' as it is popularly known. Real data on networks of ecosystem flows indicate that in general these systems do not exist nigh upon the edge of chaos, but rather they populate a much wider 'window of vitality' that exists between the realms of chaotic and deterministic dynamics. It appears that the magnitudes of network flows within this region are distributed in power law fashion. The theory also suggests that an absolute limit to the connectivity of natural self-organizing systems exists, at approximately 3.015 effective connections per node.
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