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Home Advantage in Football: A Current Review of an Unsolved Puzzle

June 2008
The Open Sports Sciences Journal 1(1)

Authors:

California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo

The existence of home advantage in football is a well known and well documented fact. However the precise causes and the way in which they affect performance are still not clear. A comprehensive review is made of published re-search under the main hypothesized explanations for home advantage in football which are: crowd effects, travel effects, familiarity, referee bias, territoriality, specific tactics, rule factors and psychological factors. Their interactions, and other factors that need to be taken into account when investigating home advantage, are considered. Home advantage in football has long been established as an important factor in determining the result of a game. Its existence is certain to affect the attitude of players, coaches, referees, fans and the media alike. Surprisingly, and despite over 25 years of research, the precise causes of home advan-tage and the way in which they operate are still not well un-derstood. A review of the evidence for and against plausible explanations needs to be set against a background of the fol-lowing basic facts. Home advantage has been in existence at least since the start of organized football at the end of the 19th century. It is a worldwide phenomenon, but varies con-siderably from country to country. It has declined in the ma-jor leagues in Europe over the last 15 years. It tends to be greater in football than in other team sports. The first report and quantitative description of home ad-vantage in football was by Morris in 1981 [1]. This was soon followed by Dowie [2] and by Pollard [3] who gave a de-tailed quantitative description of home advantage in football and outlined the main hypothesized causes. This paper has been recently updated [4,5]. These explanations are now examined in the context of a comprehensive review of pub-lished research on home advantage as it relates specifically to football. The scope of this paper does not allow a detailed critical review of each publication, but should facilitate a literature review for any future research study on a specific aspect of football's home advantage.

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12 The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 2008, 1, 12-14

1875-399X/08 2008 Bentham Open

Open Access

Home Advantage in Football: A Current Review of an Unsolved Puzzle

Richard Pollard*

Statistics Department, California Polytechnic State University, San Luis Obispo, U.S.A.

Abstract: The existence of home advantage in football is a well known and well documented fact. However the precise

causes and the way in which they affect performance are still not clear. A comprehensive review is made of published re-

search under the main hypothesized explanations for home advantage in football which are: crowd effects, travel effects,

familiarity, referee bias, territoriality, specific tactics, rule factors and psychological factors. Their interactions, and other

factors that need to be taken into account when investigating home advantage, are considered.

Home advantage in football has long been established as

an important factor in determining the result of a game. Its

existence is certain to affect the attitude of players, coaches,

referees, fans and the media alike. Surprisingly, and despite

over 25 years of research, the precise causes of home advan-

tage and the way in which they operate are still not well un-

derstood. A review of the evidence for and against plausible

explanations needs to be set against a background of the fol-

lowing basic facts. Home advantage has been in existence at

least since the start of organized football at the end of the

19th century. It is a worldwide phenomenon, but varies con-

siderably from country to country. It has declined in the ma-

jor leagues in Europe over the last 15 years. It tends to be

greater in football than in other team sports.

The first report and quantitative description of home ad-

vantage in football was by Morris in 1981 [1]. This was soon

followed by Dowie [2] and by Pollard [3] who gave a de-

tailed quantitative description of home advantage in football

and outlined the main hypothesized causes. This paper has

been recently updated [4,5]. These explanations are now

examined in the context of a comprehensive review of pub-

lished research on home advantage as it relates specifically

to football. The scope of this paper does not allow a detailed

critical review of each publication, but should facilitate a

literature review for any future research study on a specific

aspect of football’s home advantage.

Crowd Effects

This is the most obvious factor involved with home ad-

vantage and one that fans certainly believe to be dominant

[6,7]. However the precise way in which crowd support has

an effect has been difficult to pinpoint [2,3]. For example the

relationship with crowd size is unclear and the advantage has

been shown to operate even with very small crowds [4,5,8].

In addition to the size of the crowd, its density, intensity of

support and proximity to the field of play are all factors that

need to be considered [9,10,11]. Likewise, it is not known

whether the primary effect of the crowd is to give an advan-

tage to the home team or a disadvantage to the away team

*Address correspondence to this author at the 2401 Cloverfield Boulevard,

Santa Monica, CA 90405, U.S.A.; Tel: +1 310 396-6715;

E-mail: richwpollard@yahoo.com

and whether this is conveyed directly to the players or via

referee decisions influenced by the crowd (see referee bias

below). It is possible that the introduction of all-seater stadi-

ums has modified the crowd effect.

Travel Effects

As with crowd support the evidence for a travel effect

disadvantaging the away team is inconclusive. Distance trav-

eled has been investigated within countries as well as inter-

nationally but with contradictory conclusions [2,3,12,13,

14,15,16]. However, one consistent finding is that home ad-

vantage is reduced in local derbies where no travel is in-

volved [3,17,18].

Familiarity

When a team plays at home, it will be performing at a

familiar stadium in familiar conditions amid familiar sur-

roundings, all of which should provide an advantage. This

concept has proved difficult to investigate, but some intrigu-

ing findings suggest that familiarity is a likely factor in home

advantage. An advantage has been shown to exist on account

of playing on artificial turf [19], on pitches with unusually

large or small dimensions [3,12] and with a make of football

specific to the home team [20]. In addition there is some

evidence that familiarity with local climatic conditions and

with altitude has an effect favoring the home team

[16,18,21]. Loss of familiarity has been suggested as a cause

of the drop in home advantage in England and in Italy im-

mediately after the long interruption of play due to World

War II [1,8]. It also should apply in the same way when a

team moves to a new stadium.

Referee Bias

There is now overwhelming evidence that referee deci-

sions favor the home team. This was first suggested by ana-

lyzing the frequency of disciplinary cards and other referee

decisions [9,22-26]. The bias was then demonstrated in a

laboratory setting [27,28] and subsequently by returning to

referee decisions after carefully controlling for confounding

variables [10,29-32]. However, caution in the interpretation

of some of these results has been suggested [33]. The reason

for apparent referee bias is thought to be a consequence of

crowd support, but this has not yet been established, neither

has whether the bias acts primarily on the home team, the

Home Advantage in Football The Open Sports Sciences Journal, 2008, Volume 1 13

away team, or both. An interesting study involving the eth-

nicity of the referee and of the competing teams also pointed

to unequal treatment by the referee, suggesting that other

factors might be at work [34].

Territoriality

Humans and animals are known to respond to a real or

perceived invasion of their home territory and it seems rea-

sonable to suppose this might be a factor in home advantage.

The idea that this might be at work in football was originally

put forward by Morris [1]. Evidence was later produced

showing that home players experience an increase in hor-

mone activity before a game [35-38]. Subsequently it has

been shown that teams playing in countries, or specific cities

or regions within countries, often isolated and with a history

of conflict, have increased home advantage perhaps due to a

heightened sense of territoriality [14,17].

Special Tactics

Home and away teams may approach games differently

from a tactical viewpoint. If the away team were to use a

more caution and defensive approach this might be expected

to hand a territorial and psychological advantage to the home

team [3,5]. Although a study documenting increased home

advantage in the second leg of European cup games sug-

gested, among other things, tactical considerations as an ex-

planation [39], there is still no firm evidence to link tactics

with home advantage. Clear differences between home and

away teams in terms of match performance indicators have

been shown, with implications on tactical strategies

[18,40,41].

Rule Factors

Although football is a simple game, the last two decades

have seen important changes in the rules of the game as well

as the regulations involving player participation, all of which

have the potential to affect home advantage. Changing from

two to three points for a win has produced conflicting find-

ings in relation to home advantage [2,3,8,42,43]. The in-

creased use of substitutes and the lengthening of the half-

time interval have also been hypothesized as having an effect

due to a greater degree of what has been termed ‘information

transfer’ [44]. The rule limiting passing back to the goal-

keeper is another possibility, as is the directive to referees to

punish tackles from behind more severely. The Bosman rul-

ing of 1995 making it easier for players to move internation-

ally and more frequently from club to club has resulted in

teams, especially in England, consisting mainly of non-

native born players. This is likely to dilute the relationship

between the players and their ‘home’ city and home fans,

and hence has the potential to influence home advantage.

Psychological Factors

Since players and coaches are well aware of the existence

of home advantage, their mental attitude before and during a

game is certainly going to be affected. One possibility is that

although there may be real reasons for the advantage, these

are being augmented by the beliefs of the players and those

around them. Hence a self perpetuating phenomenon is being

established [3,4,5]. A review of home advantage in football

from a psychological and physiological viewpoint has been

made by Neave and Wolfson [38]. Ultimately it is what goes

on in the mind of players, coaches and referees that deter-

mine their actions and hence the result of a game and the role

played by home advantage. A study of five players appears

to be the only investigation into the psychological state of

footballers in relation to home advantage [45]. Two papers

have focused on how players might become better prepared

to cope with the perceived disadvantage of playing away

from home [36,46].

Interaction of Causes

One of the problems about researching home advantage

in football is the fact that the likely causes outlined above

will be operating together, each interacting with the other in

ways that will be difficult to investigate, isolate and quantify.

A model for these interactions has been proposed [4,5]. Thus

a researcher will need to develop a strategy which either

takes a multivariate approach, or which carefully controls for

possible confounding variables that are not the main focus of

the study.

Other Considerations

Although there are different ways of quantifying home

advantage, team ability has been recognized as a factor that

affects the magnitude of home advantage and needs to be

taken into account, especially if individual teams are being

compared. Several different approaches have been used

[12,16,19,32,47]. In addition, the general recent decline in

home advantage and the significant long-term fluctuations

need to be incorporated into the analysis when basing a study

on more than a few years of data [5,8,39,41,42,48]. Large

differences in home advantage between countries must also

be considered as a confounding variable, as well as having

the potential to throw light on possible causes [14,17,49]. It

has been suggested that game importance might also be a

factor to consider [39]. Since football’s world governing

body (FIFA) is now making use of its world football rank-

ings to seed teams in World Cup qualification, it is worth

noting that home advantage is totally ignored in the proce-

dure to calculate the rankings [50]. This is an astonishing

omission given the importance that home advantage is

known to have in determining the result of a game.

In conclusion, the exact same words written at the end of

my paper on home advantage in football in 1986 are just as

relevant over 20 years later: “Clearly, there is still much to

be learnt about the complex mechanisms that cause home

advantage, both in soccer and other sports. The topic remains

a fruitful area of research for sports historians, sociologists,

psychologists and statisticians alike” [3].

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Received: March 27, 2008 Revised: April 24, 2008 Accepted: April 29, 2008

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.5/), which

permits unrestrictive use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

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Feb 2022

Jordi Arboix-Alió

El hockey sobre patines es un deporte de equipo con una larga tradición histórica y reconocido éxito deportivo en nuestro territorio, pero con escasa literatura científica. El análisis de las variables de rendimiento es cada vez más utilizado y aceptado por entrenadores y deportistas. Por este motivo, conocer los distintos indicadores y variables de rendimiento de cada deporte, y su influencia en el resultado final, es de gran utilidad. Esta tesis doctoral tiene como objetivo analizar la influencia de las variables contextuales y de juego en el hockey sobre patines. Para ello, se han estudiado distintas variables a partir del análisis de las clasificaciones de los equipos, de las actas de los partidos y del visionado de partidos. Los resultados obtenidos han permitido efectuar once publicaciones en revistas, que constituyen el cuerpo principal de la tesis, y se han dividido en cuatro bloques temáticos. El primer bloque (Estudios I, II, III, IV y V) trata sobre las variables contextuales y su influencia en el rendimiento de los equipos. En estos trabajos se analizan aspectos como el hecho de jugar en casa, de marcar el primer gol del encuentro, de ir ganando a la media parte, así como el nivel del rival o jugar sin público en las gradas. Asimismo, también se muestra el poder predictivo independiente de cada una de estas variables y cuando se complementan entre ellas. De forma genérica, se demuestra que las variables contextuales influyen en el resultado de los partidos, siendo el nivel de los equipos y el resultado a la media parte las variables predictivas más potentes. El segundo bloque (Estudios VI, VII y VIII) analiza las acciones a pelota parada (penaltis y faltas directas) y su influencia en el resultado de los partidos. Los resultados obtenidos confirman que el rendimiento de las acciones a pelota parada tiene una gran relevancia en el resultado final, y de forma más global en el rendimiento de los equipos a final de temporada. El tercer bloque (Estudios IX y XI) cuantifica el equilibrio competitivo de las principales ligas europeas de hockey sobre patines, mostrando que de forma genérica hay más desigualdad que en otros deportes. Finalmente, en el cuarto bloque (Estudios X y XI) se comparan algunos de los aspectos analizados en esta tesis como el hecho de jugar en casa o el equilibrio competitivo según el género de la competición, encontrando algunas diferencias relevantes entre las ligas masculinas y femeninas. En conclusión, existen variables contextuales y de juego que influyen en el rendimiento y en el resultado final en los partidos de hockey sobre patines. Conocer adecuadamente los factores estudiados puede ayudar a los entrenadores y jugadores a adaptar mejor sus estrategias y objetivos de entrenamiento antes de cada competición, estableciendo un mejor conocimiento y comprensión del juego, y así poder conseguir un mejor rendimiento deportivo. Palabras clave: hockey patines; análisis de rendimiento; variables de partido; ventaja de jugar en casa; acciones a pelota parada.

Jet Lag in Sports

Chapter

Jun 2024

Daniel Erlacher

This chapter aims to generally consider air travel in sports and specifically jet lag. Air travel is an unavoidable stress for many athletes in high-performance sports, whether it involves regular short-haul flights or occasional long-haul trips. It is necessary to distinguish between travel fatigue and jet lag. The negative effects of short and medium-haul flights are more strongly caused by symptoms of travel fatigue and less by jet lag. With long-haul flights, the symptoms of jet lag increase with the number of time zones crossed. Accordingly, recommendations for dealing with air travel and jet lag are an important factor for success in sports.

Does a second‐leg home advantage exist in Asian football tournaments? A retrospective study

Article

May 2024

The purpose of this paper is to examine retrospectively the existence of a second‐leg home advantage effect in the knockout stages of Asian club tournaments. We analysed a total of 384 two‐legged knockout matches in the Asia Football Confederation (AFC) Champions League before the introduction of the inter‐annual format and COVID‐19. It was found that there is no significant second‐leg home advantage in the AFC Champions League in terms of promotion and goals or in any of the knockout stages.

Are Referees Unfair to Away Teams? Evidence from the Premier League

Chapter

May 2024

Home advantage in soccer: Variations in its magnitude and a literature review of the inter-related factors associated with its existence

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2006

Richard Pollard

Why Spain should win the World Cup

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Full-text available

Jan 1982

Jack Dowie

A vantagem em casa no futebol: comparação entre o campeonato Brasileiro e as principais ligas nacionais do Mundo

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Full-text available

Jul 2008

http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1980-0037.2008v10n2p184 Home advantage is a phenomenon that has been investigated in many sporting competition. Nevertheless, data from Brazilian soccer and comparisons between different leagues are rare in the literature. Thus, the objective of this study was to perform a survey of the advantage of playing at home in the first division of the Brazilian Championship (Série A), by means of percentage of available points won while playing at home, and to compare this with the principal national leagues of the world for the seasons from 2002/03 to 2006/07. The results showed that there was a significantly greater advantage to playing at home for teams in the Brazilian Championship (64.9 ± 2.2%; p< 0.05) than for those competing in Germany, Argentina, Spain, England, Italy or Portugal. There was no statistical difference when Brazilian results were compared with those from the French league (p=0.050). It was concluded that the advantage of playing at home was greater in the Brazilian championship than in the principal national soccer leagues of the world during the period analyzed. Factors that possibly contribute to this finding were discussed.

Über die Schwierigkeit, unparteiische Entscheidungen zu fällen

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2007

Zusammenfassung. Von Schiedsrichtern und Schiedsrichterinnen im Fußball wird erwartet, dass ihre Urteile keine Mannschaft über-vorteilen. Wegen der Umstände, unter denen sie Entscheidungen treffen müssen, sind unparteiische Urteile jedoch unwahrscheinlich. Eine hinreichende Bedingung für eine Bevorzugung ist Ähnlichkeit. Als Maß der Ähnlichkeit verwendeten wir die Übereinstimmung der kulturellen Herkunft von Mannschaften und des jeweiligen Schiedsrichters. In der Schweiz gibt es eine französischsprachige und eine deutschsprachige Kultur. Wir analysierten 1 033 Spiele der höchsten Schweizer Fußballliga der Männer. Es zeigte sich, dass eine Mannschaft einen Vorteil hat, wenn sie aus derselben Kultur wie der Schiedsrichter stammt. Der Vorteil zeigte sich in der Höhe des Sieges, der Höhe der gewonnenen Punkte, der Anzahl gelber Karten und der Anzahl der Platzverweise. Abstract. Referees are expected to make impartial decisions. If one looks at the judgment processes that take place while building a decision, impartial judgments are unlikely. A sufficient condition for a preference is similarity. As a measure of similarity, we used the correspondance of the cultural origin between the team and the referee. In Switzerland there is a French-speaking and a German-speaking culture. We analyzed 1033 matches of the highest men's Swiss soccer league. The analysis revealed an advantage for the team coming from the same cultural background as the referee. This advantage was shown by number of goals, points, yellow cards and sending offs.

An examination of the homefield advantage in a professional English Soccer team from a psychological standpoint

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2002

The aim of this investigation was to examine the underlying mechanisms of the homefield advantage within professional English football (soccer). Study 1 examined soccer players' retrospective perceptions of the homefield advantage. Results to this first study revealed that the players had significantly higher retrospective perceptions of their confidence, t(4) = 2.24, p

Contest location, player misconduct, and race: A case from English soccer

Article

Jan 1990

F.D. Glamser

Altitude and athletic performance: statististical analysis using football results

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Dec 2007
BRIT MED J

Patrick E. McSharry

Objective To assess the effect of altitude on match results and physiological performance of a large and diverse population of professional athletes. Design Statistical analysis of international football (soccer) scores and results. Data resources FIFA extensive database of 1460 football matches in 10 countries spanning over 100 years. Results Altitude had a significant (P<0.001) negative impact on physiological performance as revealed through the overall underperformance of low altitude teams when playing against high altitude teams in South America. High altitude teams score more and concede fewer goals with increasing altitude difference. Each additional 1000 m of altitude difference increases the goal difference by about half of a goal. The probability of the home team winning for two teams from the same altitude is 0.537, whereas this rises to 0.825 for a home team with an altitude difference of 3695 m (such as Bolivia v Brazil) and falls to 0.213 when the altitude difference is -3695 m (such as Brazil v Bolivia). Conclusions Altitude provides a significant advantage for high altitude teams when playing international football games at both low and high altitudes. Lowland teams are unable to acclimatise to high altitude, reducing physiological performance. As physiological performance does not protect against the effect of altitude, better predictors of individual susceptibility to altitude illness would facilitate team selection.

The Effect of an Artificial Pitch Surface on Home Team Performance in Football (Soccer)

Article

Jan 1993

Four teams in the four divisions of the English Football League have been playing their home matches on artificial pitch surfaces at certain times over the last 10 years or so. A Commission of Enquiry (Football League, 1989) recently recommended that the introduction of further artificial pitches be restricted. One of the factors leading to this recommendation was the possible advantage gained by the home team on such pitches. A statistical analysis of the end-of-season results for the four divisions over the last 10 years (carried out for the Football League) showed that there is indeed such an advantage and that it is of a sufficient scale to be a cause for concern.

Home Ground Advantage of Individual Clubs in English Soccer

Article

Jan 1995

Least squares is used to fit a model to the individual match results in English football and to produce a home ground advantage effect for each team in addition to a team rating. We show that for a balanced competition this is equivalent to a simple calculator method using only data from the final ladder. The existence of a spurious home advantage is discussed. Home advantages for all teams in the English Football League from 1981-82 to 1990-91 are calculated, and some reasons for their differences investigated. A paired home advantage is defined and shown to be linearly related to the distance between club grounds.

World Cup soccer home advantage

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