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A System-Based, Qualitative Inference Method of Heuristics for Foresight and Futures Studies

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... The »Methodology for qualitative system analysis«, developed by Jay Forrest ([31], [32]) supports the analysis of highly complex problems, based on qualitative system characteristics. The procedure is based on the analysis of the system under different points of view and builts on a dynamic balance between system maturity, network connectivity and turbulence. ...
... • following the argumentation of systems thinking, a complex problem can be described by its connection structures and cause-effect-characteristics [36] • for the determination of the fit of a technology strategy the variables, which describe the situation under which the technology strategy is derived have to be identified. In doing so, the evaluation of the system boundaries according to Forrest ([31], [32]) is a major concern • according to the presented methods of systems thinking, the relationships and interdependency of the variables have to be determined and displayed in a comprehensive and intuitive way [56] • based on the »fit as gestalt« perspective ( [51], [72]) the methodology for qualitative system analysis ( [31], [32]), the Viable System Model [6], the methodology of system thinking ( [54][55][56], [70]) and the cybernetic sensitivity model ( [73], [74]) criteria will be derived, which allow the determination of the fit of a technology strategy. These criteria will be discussed in the following section. ...
... • following the argumentation of systems thinking, a complex problem can be described by its connection structures and cause-effect-characteristics [36] • for the determination of the fit of a technology strategy the variables, which describe the situation under which the technology strategy is derived have to be identified. In doing so, the evaluation of the system boundaries according to Forrest ([31], [32]) is a major concern • according to the presented methods of systems thinking, the relationships and interdependency of the variables have to be determined and displayed in a comprehensive and intuitive way [56] • based on the »fit as gestalt« perspective ( [51], [72]) the methodology for qualitative system analysis ( [31], [32]), the Viable System Model [6], the methodology of system thinking ( [54][55][56], [70]) and the cybernetic sensitivity model ( [73], [74]) criteria will be derived, which allow the determination of the fit of a technology strategy. These criteria will be discussed in the following section. ...
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Studies have shown that the success of different technology strategies varies with the conditions under which they are derived, e.g. internal or external boundary conditions. Thus, technology strategies fitted to the requirements of an enterprise are a key success factor. Until now, there is little research work done to determine the fit of a technology strategy. Therefore, in our research project, we developed a method to analyse and determine the fit of a technology strategy of an enterprise with its specific internal organizational and strategic context as well as with its external boundary conditions. Prior research on the nterrelationships between technology strategy and influencing factors is mainly focused on single parameters. This article brings an integrated view to the fit of a technology strategy by applying the »fit as gestalts« perspective as well as cybernetic reasoning to the research field of technology strategy.
... The opportunities that arise area encouraging, since the integration of hybrid modeling practices in the field of futures studies, provides a new way to the systematic use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in corporate strategy. The present approach hopes to help create a dialectic of a progressive understanding of the future, by reducing the sources of uncertainty [3][4][5][6][7]. Thus, accordingly the field of futures studies which is a source to stimulate the processes of strategic innovation, systematically offers the development of long-term competitive capabilities in organizations [8][9][10][11]. ...
... In sum, although there is a wide range of methods available in the literature, some of these methods can help to identify the relevance and dynamic causal connections as well as to determine the outcome of key factors. The literature does not adequately offer frameworks that respond to the natural complexity that long-term reflection deals with concerning the understanding of new contingencies and the definition of appropriate boundaries, which must be tackled to explore diverse and heterogeneous potentialities in futures studies [3]. However, there is not enough interest in evaluating the potential behavior of the strategic design that can be conceived. ...
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Metodologia cercetării în științele sociale: Cercetarea calitativă se adresează studenților facultăților de științe sociale care studiază discipline academice ca arheologia, antropologia, asistența socială, economia, geografia umană, lingvistica, sociologia, știința comunicării, știința managementului și științele politice. Primele patru capitole prezintă și explică în detaliu concepte precum cercetare calitativă, cercetare cantitativă și cercetare mixtă, conceptul de metodologie de cercetare și de metodologie a cercetării calitative. Celelalte opt capitole sunt rezervate celor mai importante metode de cercetare calitativă: analiza documentelor, cercetarea etnografică, focus grupul, interviul, metoda biografică, observația și studiul de caz. Fiecare capitol conține și un grupaj de aplicații practice referitoare la conținutul teoretic al acestuia. Bibliografia pe care se bazează această carte indică cele 136 de surse ale ideilor prezentate și le permite studenților aprofundarea temelor de interes.
Chapter
The field of Futures Studies has been sculpted for 2500 years. Heraclitus, Plato, Aristotle, Parmenides, from ancient times, in addition to Jacques Bernoulli, Von Clausewitz and Von Moltke and many other authors have an invaluable intellectual contribution to the development of the field of Future Studies. The developments during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries showed multiples authors with differential theoretical and empirical proposals, but they shared the notion of collective construction of the future and the social action as key issues in the field. However, at the present time the field of Futures Studies must introduce new epistemological and ontological elements to understand the new phenomena that should be studied. Therefore, this chapter hopes to help the reader recognize the conductive threads and milestones that have shaped and will give a new shape to the field of Future Studies.
Chapter
The literature on Futures Studies shows the need to give the process of inference of the future, guidelines that help to face turbulence and recognize the emerging properties that belong to the dynamics of complex social systems. These systems are always in a state of non-equilibrium. Therefore, from a prospective point of view, a system must have means to monitor and understand the changes that occur in its environment, which in many cases express mega trends, often in conflict with each other. To respond to the challenges, the proposal called Meta-Prospective allows to combine Soft Computing with prospective strategic methods, providing the opportunity to develop strategic intelligence capabilities based on prospective thinking and modeling, but prioritizing the process on the methods to turns the proposal into a humanized model. This chapter develops the proposed called Meta-Prospective.
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