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Key Evidence for the Accumulative Model of High Solar Influence on Global Temperature
Abstract
5 Here we present three key pieces of empirical evidence for a solar origin of recent and pa-6 leoclimate global temperature change, caused by amplification of forcings over time by the 7 accumulation of heat in the ocean. Firstly, variations in global temperature at all time scales 8 are more correlated with the accumulated solar anomaly than with direct solar radiation. Sec-9 ondly, accumulated solar anomaly and sunspot count fits the global temperature from 1900, 10 including the rapid increase in temperature since 1950, and the flat temperature since the turn 11 of the century. The third, crucial piece of evidence is a 90 • shift in the phase of the response of 12 temperature to the 11 year solar cycle. These results, together with previous physical justifica-13 tions, show that the accumulation of solar anomaly is a viable explanation for climate change 14 without recourse to changes in heat-trapping greenhouse gasses.
... A critical subtlety, observed in various geophysical contexts (e.g. temperature response lagging solar insolation [8,9]), is that fluid-based or thermoelastic phenomena often respond with a phase lag of about π/2. Likewise, oceanic, atmospheric, or subterranean tidal flows can lag behind the "immediate" gravitational forcing by planetary/lunar positions. ...
... This approach is important when fluid lags (cf. Stockwell [8,9]) complicate the direct gravitational tide, ensuring that one distinguishes ephemeral fluid or thermoelastic responses from any persistent torsional swirl. ...
... Meanwhile, older climate-based "accumulative" models (e.g. Stockwell [8,9]) highlight the importance of distinguishing instantaneous vs. lagged forcings. Conducting a well-controlled ±1 km vertical experiment might thus discriminate among multiple extended-gravity frameworks by matching or constraining distinct parametric dependencies. ...
Extended gravitational theories of the Einstein–Cartan type do not assume a symmetric affine connection, thereby introducing an antisymmetric part known as torsion. In weak-field regimes, torsion can generate a small additional contribution to the usual (radial) gravitational acceleration, which can be schematically expressed as
g(r) = –∇Φ(r) + A_T(r).
Here, –∇Φ(r) is the standard (radial) Newtonian component, and A_T(r) denotes a possible torsional or “swirling” contribution that, in principle, can be perpendicular to the local radial direction. This paper outlines several potential experimental configurations — spanning vertical distances from –1 km to +1 km — intended to detect such torsion-induced effects. These proposals include:
Two horizontally adjacent gravimeters,
Three gravimeters forming a triangular array in a horizontal plane,
A vertical “pyramidal” geometry with two horizontal planes at different altitudes (or depths),
Sensitivity to a possible twist or swirl of the torsion field about the vertical axis using tilted or multi-axis devices.
We discuss how lunar tidal variations, geological inhomogeneities, and environmental factors (atmospheric/hydrological) could affect measurements, and how multi-sensor or differential methods could distinguish a genuine torsional signal. We also compare the scale of these possible “curl” contributions with known measurements of Newton’s constant G and large-scale gravitational data from satellites like GRACE. If no torsional effects are found, stronger upper bounds on torsion parameters can be set; if detectable swirl-like signatures appear, it may signal new physics beyond standard, torsion-free General Relativity.
Measurements made by microwave sounding instruments provide a multidecadal record of atmospheric temperature in several thick atmospheric layers. Satellite measurements began in late 1978 with the launch of the first Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) and have continued to the present via the use of measurements from the follow-on series of instruments, the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU). The weighting function for MSU channel 2 is centered in the middle troposphere but contains significant weight in the lower stratosphere. To obtain an estimate of tropospheric temperature change that is free from stratospheric effects, a weighted average of MSU channel 2 measurements made at different local zenith angles is used to extrapolate the measurements toward the surface, which results in a measurement of changes in the lower troposphere. In this paper, a description is provided of methods that were used to extend the MSU method to the newer AMSU channel 5 measurements and to intercalibrate the results from the different types of satellites. Then, satellite measurements are compared to results from homogenized radiosonde datasets. The results are found to be in excellent agreement with the radiosonde results in the northern extratropics, where the majority of the radiosonde stations are located.
We provide estimates of the warming of the world ocean for 1955-2008 based on historical data not previously available, additional modern data, correcting for instrumental biases of bathythermograph data, and correcting or excluding some Argo float data. The strong interdecadal variability of global ocean heat content reported previously by us is reduced in magnitude but the linear trend in ocean heat content remain similar to our earlier estimate. Citation: Levitus, S., J. I. Antonov, T. P. Boyer, R. A. Locarnini, H. E. Garcia, and A. V. Mishonov (2009), Global ocean heat content 1955-2008 in light of recently revealed instrumentation problems, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L07608, doi: 10.1029/2008GL037155.
1] We apply a multiple regression method to estimate the response to anthropogenic and natural climate forcings simultaneously from a number of paleo-reconstructions of Northern Hemispheric average temperature. These long records (600 to 1000 years) provide a unique opportunity to distinguish between different external influences on climate. The response to volcanic forcing is reliably detected in all reconstructions, and the simulated temperature response to volcanic eruptions compares favorably with observations. The response to solar forcing is detected in Hemispheric mean data only over some periods in some records, and appears weak. Although most records can be used only to the middle of the 20th century, the temperature response to CO 2 can be detected by this time in most records.
1] Time series for the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and global tropospheric temperature anomalies (GTTA) are compared for the 1958À2008 period. GTTA are represented by data from satellite microwave sensing units (MSU) for the period 1980–2008 and from radiosondes (RATPAC) for 1958–2008. After the removal from the data set of short periods of temperature perturbation that relate to near-equator volcanic eruption, we use derivatives to document the presence of a 5-to 7-month delayed close relationship between SOI and GTTA. Change in SOI accounts for 72% of the variance in GTTA for the 29-year-long MSU record and 68% of the variance in GTTA for the longer 50-year RATPAC record. Because El NiñoÀSouthern Oscillation is known to exercise a particularly strong influence in the tropics, we also compared the SOI with tropical temperature anomalies between 20°S and 20°N. The results showed that SOI accounted for 81% of the variance in tropospheric temperature anomalies in the tropics. Overall the results suggest that the Southern Oscillation exercises a consistently dominant influence on mean global temperature, with a maximum effect in the tropics, except for periods when equatorial volcanism causes ad hoc cooling. That mean global tropospheric temperature has for the last 50 years fallen and risen in close accord with the SOI of 5–7 months earlier shows the potential of natural forcing mechanisms to account for most of the temperature variation.
1] We analyze the temperature anomaly of the Pinatubo eruption using an exact mathematical solution of a standard energy balance model that includes coupling between the mixed layer and the thermocline. Our solution yields a short response time t = 4.4 months and a small climate sensitivity l = 0.22 C/(W/m 2), implying short-term negative feedback. Also, our analysis determines a value of the effective eddy diffusion constant k = 2 Â 10 À6 m 2 /s that is much smaller than that assumed in many climate models. We find for this model that the heat flux to the thermocline reverses sign and integrates to zero for any forcing of finite duration. This effect should be observable in any future Pinatubo-type event.
Feedbacks are widely considered to be the largest source of uncertainty in determining the sensitivity of the climate system to increasing anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations, yet the ability to diagnose them from observations has remained controversial. Here a simple model is used to demonstrate that any nonfeedback source of top-of-atmosphere radiative flux variations can cause temperature variability, which then results in a positive bias in diagnosed feedbacks. This effect is demonstrated with daily random flux variations, as might be caused by stochastic fluctuations in low cloud cover. The daily noise in radiative flux then causes interannual and decadal temperature variations in the model's 50-m-deep swamp ocean. The amount of bias in the feedbacks diagnosed from time-averaged model output depends upon the size of the nonfeedback flux variability relative to the surface temperature variability, as well as the sign and magni- tude of the specified (true) feedback. For model runs producing monthly shortwave flux anomaly and temperature anomaly statistics similar to those measured by satellites, the diagnosed feedbacks have posi- tive biases generally in the range of 0.3 to 0.8 Wm 2 K1. These results suggest that current observa- tional diagnoses of cloud feedback—and possibly other feedbacks—could be significantly biased in the positive direction.
A phenomenological thermodynamic model is adopted to estimate the relative contribution of the solar-induced versus anthropogenic-added climate forcing during the industrial era. We compare different preindustrial temperature and solar data reconstruction scenarios since 1610. We argue that a realistic climate scenario is the one described by a large preindustrial secular variability (as the one shown by the paleoclimate temperature reconstruction by Moberg et al. (2005)) with the total solar irradiance experiencing low secular variability (as the one shown by Wang et al. (2005)). Under this scenario the Sun might have contributed up to approximately 50% (or more if ACRIM total solar irradiance satellite composite (Willson and Mordvinov, 2003) is implemented) of the observed global warming since 1900.
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1] The mean surface temperature of the Earth depends on various climate factors with much attention directed toward possible anthropogenic causes. However, one must first determine the stronger effects such as El Niño/La Niña and volcanoes. A weaker effect, which must exist, is solar irradiance. We have determined the solar effect on the temperature from satellites measurements (available since 1979) of the solar irradiance and the temperature of the lower troposphere. We find the sensitivity to solar irradiance to be about twice that expected from a no-feedback Stefan-Boltzmann radiation balance model. This climate gain of a factor of two implies positive feedback. We also have determined a linear trend in the data. These results are robust under truncation from either end of the of the data record. These measurements of solar sensitivity are consistent with prior estimates from ocean temperatures on decadal scales and of paleo-reconstructed temperatures on centennial scales.