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Solar Forcing of Changes in Atmospheric Circulation, Earth's Rotation and Climate

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Cross analysis of available historical series of solar wind turbulence, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation and sea surface temperature, when smoothed from the secular trend and periods shorter than 23 years, allowed a cascade climatological model to be set up that integrates the Sun-atmosphere-Earth system as a simple unit and ties solar corpus-cular output to sea surface temperature through atmospheric circulation and the Earth's rotation. An increase in solar cor-puscular activity causes a deceleration of zonal atmospheric circulation which, like a torque, causes a deceleration of the Earth's rotation that, in turn, causes a decrease in sea surface temperature. Application of this holistic model allows us to predict a gradual decline in global warming starting from the current decade.
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... The geomagnetic index aa is a measure of the solar wind in the ecliptic plane, and a zonal wind index (ZI) is the pressure difference between 35˚N and 55˚N latitude circles. Mazzarella [76] finds a correlation (r = −0.97) between 23-year running mean, detrended integrated geomagnetic index (Iaa) and integrated zonal index (IZI) with Iaa 5 years ahead. This indicates that an increase in solar wind speed causes a decrease in zonal atmospheric circulation with a delay of 5 years. ...
... with LOD 4 years after IZI. Mazzarella [76] explains the relation between solar activity and LOD in the following way: When solar activity increases the Sun ejects plasma (charged particles) both in the continuous solar wind and in hydrodynamic shock waves which interfere with the Earth's magnetosphere and create turbulent pressure waves which decelerate atmospheric circulation and slows the Earth's rotation. This cools the Earth. ...
... The solar wind may interact directly by increased corpuscular pressure on the earth's atmosphere during geomagnetic storms (CMEs), in the sense that increased corpuscular activity causes a deceleration of zonal atmospheric circulation. This causes a deceleration of the Earth's rotation and decreases global SST [76]. When solar activity decrease, we observe a faster Earth rotation and BIE moving north, as seen in Figure 25 since 1975. ...
... Several authors have noted a correlation between sunspot activity and Earth's rate of rotation (e.g. Kalinin and Kiselev, 1976;Golovkov, 1983;Mazzarella and Palumbo, 1988;Gu, 1998;Rosen and Salstein, 2000;Kirov et al., 2002;Abarca del Rio et al., 2003;Mazzarella, 2007Mazzarella, , 2008Mörner, 2010, Le Mouël et al., 2010Scafetta, 2010Scafetta, , 2012. ...
... Kirov et al. (2002) found a correlation between the 22-years Hail cycle and LOD. Mazzarella (2007Mazzarella ( , 2008 and Scafetta (2010) documented a close correlation between the 60-years cycle in solar activity and in LOD. On the longer-term basis, Mörner (2010Mörner ( , 2011 showed the Grand Solar Minima of the Spörer Minimum, the Maunder Minimum and the Dalton Minimum corresponded to periods of speeding-ups in the Earth's rate of rotation, whilst the Solar Maxima corresponds to slowing-downs in the Earth's rate of rotation (as further discussed below and illustrated in Figures 4-5). ...
... They assumed that the changes in LOD were a function only of changes in atmospheric circulation. Similarly, Mazzarella (2007Mazzarella ( , 2008 and Scafetta (2010) discussed the 60-years cycle in terms of atmospheric circulation (cf. below). ...
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The Sun's emission of luminosity and Solar Wind is constantly changing. This solar variability is driven by a planetary beat because the Solar-Planetary system behaves like a multi-body system constantly adjusting their motions around a common centre of gravity. The solar influence on terrestrial climate and environments seems primarily to go via the interaction of the Solar Wind with the Earth's magnetosphere. This generates changes in shielding capacity, geomagnetic activity, atmospheric pressure, external gravity and Earth's rate of rotation. The correlation between changes in solar activity and Earth's rate of rotation is indicative of a forcing function via changes in Solar Wind emission (not luminosity). Changes in rotation (LOD) affects not only the atmospheric circulation but also the ocean circulation. Changes in ocean circulation lead to the redistribution of oceanic water masses (recorded by sea level changes) and water-stored heat (recorded by paleoclimate). Changes in ocean circulation have strong effects on terrestrial climate. During Grand Solar Minima (the Spörer, Maunder and Dalton Minima) the Earth's experienced a speeding-up in the rate of rotation as evidenced by significant reorganisations of the currents in the North Atlantic. This lead to the establishment of periods of cold climatic conditions, known as Little Ice Ages. The next Grand Solar Minimum is due at about 2030-2040. We must assume that this will be a period of resumed cold climatic conditions, may be even Little Ice Age conditions.
... Curry and Webster [3] have recently warned about the monstrous uncertainty implicit in the current analytical climate modelling approach, which has been interpreted as due to model inadequacy, uncertainty in model parameter values, and initial condition uncertainty. Recently, a phenomenological and unitary approach in which the length of day (LOD) is considered as the integral of the different circulations that occur within the ocean-atmosphere system both along latitude (zonal circulation) and longitude (meridional circulation) has been set up [4][5][6]. Such an approach has allowed identification of a good relationship between LOD and sea surface temperature (SST) and its forecast 4 years in advance. ...
... NAO (hPa) index is a gradient of atmospheric pressure between the Azores high and Icelandic low [7][8][9]. LOD has been already verified to be a good proxy for climatic changes [4][5][6] and here we will investigate also (a) are directly proportional to a zonal wind speed and inversely proportional to LOD. Both the series are reported in Figures 1(a) and (d). ...
... Length of day (LOD) is a good proxy for climatic changes under the assumption that it is the integral of the different circulations that occur within the ocean-atmosphere system both along latitude (zonal circulation) and longitude (meridional circulation) [4][5][6]. Here we have confined our investigation to NAO that is the main synodic mode of Northern hemisphere atmospheric circulation. ...
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The time-integrated yearly values of North Atlantic Oscillation (INAO) are found to be well correlated to the sea surface temperature. The results give the feasibility of using INAO as a good proxy for climate change and contribute to a more complete picture of the full range of variability inherent in the climate system. Moreover , the extrapolation in the future of the well identified 65-year harmonic in INAO suggests a gradual decline in global warming starting from 2005.
... Only a holistic approach that analyses the system in its entirety, and drastically reduces the number of degree of freedom, can provide information on the way in which the global environmental system operates. When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007(Mazzarella, , 2008; application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth's atmosphere in this decade. ...
... To obtain information on how the global environmental system operates, the following historical annual series were analyzed (Mazzarella, 2007(Mazzarella, , 2008: 1868-2007, which is a proxy for the turbulence of the solar wind in the ecliptic plane (Mayaud, 1972). Yearly aa data ( Figure 1) To obtain a simple measure of the yearly zonal wind, the difference in pressure ZI (hPa) between the entire 35°N and 55°N circles was computed (Rossby, 1939). ...
... It is well known that aa geomagnetic activity shows large fluctuations at 11 and 22 years, as well as a statistically significant increasing secular trend (Mazzarella, 2007(Mazzarella, , 2008. Records of this geomagnetic proxy for solar activity have only been since available 1868. ...
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We are experiencing a period of intense anthropocentrism: humans flatter themselves they can govern the thermal machine of the ocean-atmosphere system and build models of atmospheric circulation (that solve hundreds of non-linear equations for each box of a three-dimensional grid covering the globe) to demonstrate that Earth's recent warming is attributable to anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. However, the results of such a reductionist approach are questionable, since the atmosphere and oceans form a complex interactive system that cannot be recreated in a laboratory experiment, and where the many physical and chemical processes are regulated by dynamic and thermodynamic parameters, interconnected in a non-linear way, and there are various positive and negative feedback processes. Only a holistic approach that analyses the system in its entirety, and drastically reduces the number of degree of freedom, can provide information on the way in which the global environmental system operates. When the Sun, atmospheric circulation, Earth's rotation, and sea temperature have been investigated as a single unit, the linkage between the Sun and climate is confirmed (Mazzarella, 2007, 2008); application of this integrated model provides a forecast estimate for a gradual cooling of the Earth's atmosphere in this decade.
... Changes in Earth's rate of rotation due to Solar Wind changes is a novel concept (Mörner, 1995(Mörner, , 1996b(Mörner, , 2010Gu, 1998;Mazzarella, 2008), but several authors have noted a correlation between sunspot activity and Earth's rotation (e.g. Kalinin and Kiselev, 1976;Golovkov, 1983;Mazzarella and Palumbo, 1988;Rosen and Salstein, 2000;Abarca del Rio et al., 2003;Mazzarella, 2007Mazzarella, , 2008Mörner, 2010, Le Mouël et al., 2010 or Solar-planetary cycles and Earth's rotation (e.g. ...
... Changes in Earth's rate of rotation due to Solar Wind changes is a novel concept (Mörner, 1995(Mörner, , 1996b(Mörner, , 2010Gu, 1998;Mazzarella, 2008), but several authors have noted a correlation between sunspot activity and Earth's rotation (e.g. Kalinin and Kiselev, 1976;Golovkov, 1983;Mazzarella and Palumbo, 1988;Rosen and Salstein, 2000;Abarca del Rio et al., 2003;Mazzarella, 2007Mazzarella, , 2008Mörner, 2010, Le Mouël et al., 2010 or Solar-planetary cycles and Earth's rotation (e.g. Scafetta, 2010). ...
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... There is also the possibility that the Earth's orbital parameters are directly modulated by the gravitational forces of Jupiter, Saturn and the Moon, and the Sun's magnetic force in such a way that the length of day is modulated and/or other planetary parameters are altered. For example, the rotation of the Earth on its axis shows 60-year cycles that anticipate those of the temperature by a few years [18,23]. Variations in the Earth's rotation and tides caused by the lunar cycles can drive ocean oscillations, which in turn may alter the climate [19]. ...
... However, a detailed climatic reconstruction suggests that the phenomenological model depicted in Figures 13 and 15 is more satisfactory and is likely to be more accurate in forecasting climate change during the next few decades, over which time the global surface temperature will likely remain steady or actually cool. 24 23 The AGWT advocates claim, by using climate model projections, that an increase in anthropogenic CO 2 concentration in the atmosphere will lead to ecological disasters, including wild swings in weather patterns, extended desertification, spread of hotclimate infectious diseases, greater risks of severe damaging weather phenomena such as Katrina-like hurricanes, melting of the glaciers in a few decades that, in turn, will leave hundreds of millions of people without fresh water, cause the extinction of polar bears and raise so much the ocean level that all coasts and their cities will be severely flood beginning, of course, with New York [Al Gore (2006), An Inconvenient Truth, documentary movie]. After that, an increase in anthropogenic CO 2 will reach the tipping point and activate a runaway greenhouse effect that will let the oceans boil away and, ultimately, transform the Earth into a Venus-like state (as James Hansen claimed during his AGU 2008 scientific talk (2008-12-17) "Climate Threat to the Planet"). ...
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... The 60-year periodicity is one of the most significant of the natural patterns. Its strong signature has been detected in various variables such as the average global temperature (Courtillot et al. 2013), atmospheric circulation (Mazzarella 2007(Mazzarella , 2008, global sea ice coverage (Gervais 2016), sea level change (Chen et al. 2014), and Earth's rotational speed (Mazzarella 2007). ...
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