No full-text available
To read the full-text of this research,
you can request a copy directly from the authors.
Macro Consumption and Equity Premium Based Risk Aversion of Labor and Capitalists
Abstract
The equity premium puzzle holds that the coefficient of relative risk aversion is excessively high. Based on national account data we assign macro consumption to laborers, who consume their wages, and capitalists, who consume their rental income. Unlike micro based studies that try to account for limited stock market participation by using panel household-level data, our approach is based on longer time series and permits a comparison across countries. The results show that the estimates of risk aversion for stockholders is much lower than those for the representative agent and non-stockholders.
ResearchGate has not been able to resolve any citations for this publication.
I study asset prices in a two-agent macroeconomic model with two key features: limited stock market participation and heterogeneity in the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption (EIS). The model is consistent with some prominent features of asset prices, such as a high equity premium, relatively smooth interest rates, procyclical stock prices, and countercyclical variation in the equity premium, its volatility, and in the Sharpe ratio. In this model, the risk-free asset market plays a central role by allowing non-stockholders (with low EIS) to smooth the fluctuations in their labor income. This process concentrates non-stockholders' labor income risk among a small group of stockholders, who then demand a high premium for bearing the aggregate equity risk. Furthermore, this mechanism is consistent with the very small share of aggregate wealth held by non-stockholders in the U.S. data, which has proved problematic for previous models with limited participation. I show that this large wealth inequality is also important for the model's ability to generate a countercyclical equity premium. When it comes to business cycle performance, the model's progress has been more limited: consumption is still too volatile compared to the data, whereas investment is still too smooth. These are important areas for potential improvement in this framework. Copyright 2009 The Econometric Society.
We investigate the possibility that limited participation in asset markets, and the stock market in particular, might explain the lack of correspondence between the sample moments of the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution and asset returns in U.K. data. We estimate ownership probabilities to separate "likely" shareholders from nonshareholders, enabling us to control for changing composition effects as well as selection into the group. We then construct estimates of the IMRS for each of these different groups and consider their time-series properties. We find that the consumption growth of shareholders is more volatile than that of nonshareholders and more highly correlated with excess returns to shares. In particular, one cannot reject the predictions of the consumption capital asset pricing model for the group of households predicted to own both assets. This is in contrast to the failure of the model when estimated on data for all households.
In this paper, the authors show that some of the predictions of models of consumer intertemporal optimization are in line with the patterns of nondurable expenditure observed in U.S. household-level data. They propose a flexible specification of preferences that allows multiple commodities and yields empirically tractable equations. The authors estimate preference parameters using the only U.S. micro data set with complete consumption information. They show that previous rejections can be explained by the simplifying assumptions made in previous studies. The authors also show that results obtained using good consumption or aggregate data can be misleading. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.
This paper investigates the ability of a representative agent model with time separable utility to explain the mean vector and the covariance matrix of the risk free interest rate and the return to leveraged equity in the stock market. The paper generalizes the standard calibration methodology by accounting for the uncertainty in both the sample moments to be explained and the estimated parameters to which the model is calibrated. We develop a testing framework to evaluate the model's ability to match the moments of the data. We study two forms of the model, both of which treat leverage in a manner consistent with the data. In the first, dividends explicitly represent the flow that accrues to the owner of the equity, and they are discounted by the marginal rate of intertemporal substitution defined over consumption. The second form of the model introduces bonds and treats equities as the residual claim to the total endowment stream. We find that the first moments of the data can be matched for a wide range of preference parameter values. But for both models the implied first and second moments taken together are always statistically significantly different from the data at standard levels. This last result contrasts sharply with other recent treatments of leverage in the literature.
The market value of corporate stock in the United States increased by nearly one trillion dollars between December 1994 and July 1995. This paper explores the distribution of the stock ownership, and hence the gains from the stock price rise, and what the rise in stock prices implies for consumer spending.
Recent development cooperation with Guinea-Bissau, focusing on good governance, statebuilding and conflict prevention, did not contribute to democratization nor to the stabilization of volatile political, military and economic structures. The portrayal of Guinea- Bissau as a failed “narco-state”, as well as Western aid meant to stabilize this state, are both based on dubious concepts. Certainly, the impact of drug trafficking could endanger democratization and state-building if continued unchecked. However, the most pressing need is not state-building facilitated by external aid that is poorly rooted in the social and political fabric of the country. Rather, it is grassroots nation-building that is a pre-condition for the creation of viable state institutions.
Research on the jackknife technique since its introduction by Quenouille and Tukey is reviewed. Both its role in bias reduction and in robust interval estimation are treated. Some speculations and suggestions about future research are made. The bibliography attempts to include all published work on jackknife methodology.
This chapter reviews the behavior of financial asset prices in relation to consumption. The chapter lists some important stylized facts that characterize US data, and relates them to recent developments in equilibrium asset pricing theory. Data from other countries are examined to see which features of the US experience apply more generally. The chapter argues that to make sense of asset market behavior one needs a model in which the market price of risk is high, time-varying, and correlated with the state of the economy. Models that have this feature, including models with habitformation in utility, heterogeneous investors, and irrational expectations, are discussed. The main focus is on stock returns and short-term real interest rates, but bond returns are also considered.
Restrictions that a class of general equilibrium models place upon the average returns of equity and Treasury bills are found to be strongly violated by the U.S. data in the 1889–1978 period. This result is robust to model specification and measurement problems. We conclude that, most likely, an equilibrium model which is not an Arrow-Debreu economy will be the one that simultaneously rationalizes both historically observed large average equity return and the small average risk-free return.
The equity premium puzzle holds that the coefficient of relative risk aversion estimated from the consumption based CAPM under power utility is excessively high. Moreover, estimates in the literature vary considerably across countries. We gauge the uncertainty pertaining to the country risk aversion estimates by means of jackknife resampling and pooling. The confidence band for the world risk aversion estimate from the pooled country data is much tighter and the pooled point estimate presents less of a puzzle than the individual country estimates.
This chapter deals with statistical methods that, in some way, avoid mathematical difficulties that one would be facing using traditional approaches. The traditional approach of mathematical statistics is based on analytic expressions, or formulas, so avoiding these might seem itself a formidable task, especially in view of the chapters that so far have been covered. It should be pointed out that we have no objection of using mathematical formulas—in fact, some of these are pleasant to use. However, in many cases, such formulas are simply not available or too complicated to use.
The authors show how to use security market data to restrict the admissible region for means and standard deviations of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution of consumers. Their approach (1) is nonparametric and applies to a rich class of models of dynamic economics; (2) characterizes the duality between the mean-standard deviation frontier for intertemporal marginal rates of substitution and the familiar mean-standard deviation frontier for asset returns; and (3) exploits the restriction that intertemporal marginal rates of substitution are positive random variables. The region provides a convenient summary of the sense in which asset market data are anomalous from the vantage point of intertemporal asset pricing theory. Copyright 1991 by University of Chicago Press.
In this paper we argue that market incompleteness resulting from limited stock market participation is important for understanding the behavior of asset prices. (JEL: E32, E44, G12) (c) 2006 by the European Economic Association.
We develop a model with incomplete markets and heterogeneous agents that generates a large equity premium, while simultaneously matching stock market participation and individual asset holdings. The high risk-premium is driven by incomplete risk sharing among stockholders, which results from the combination of aggregate uncertainty, borrowing constraints, and a (realistically) calibrated life-cycle earnings profile subject to idiosyncratic shocks. We show that it is challenging to simultaneously match asset pricing moments and individual portfolio decisions, while limited participation has a negligible impact on the risk-premium, contrary to the results of models where it is imposed exogenously. The Author 2007. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
In this paper we argue that financial data are a useful proving ground for macroeconomic models, and we explore the channels that link asset market data to such models. We use Hansen and Jagannathan's bounds on the mean and standard deviation of discount factors to survey several asset pricing puzzles. We then extend the bounds to reflect the correlation of discount factors with asset returns and to characterize conditional moments of discount factors. These characterizations help us to understand the behavior of a variety of models studied in the literature. We also incorporate borrowing constraints into the calculations. The borrowing constraints loosen the required properties of aggregate measurements of intertemporal marginal rates of substitution, but also sharpen the implications of asset market data for the marginal rates of substitution of unconstrained individuals.
The Euler equations of consumption are tested on the household consumption of nondurables and services, reconstructed from the CEX database. The estimated relative risk aversion coefficient of the representative household decreases, and the estimated unexplained mean equity premium decreases, as infra marginal asset holders are eliminated from the sample. These results provide evidence of limited capital market participation. The estimated unexplained mean equity premium decreases when the assumption of complete consumption insurance is relaxed. The estimated correlation between the equity premium and the cross-sectional variance of the households' consumption growth is negative, as required, if the relaxation of market completeness is to contribute towards the explanation of the premium. The overall evidence from asset prices in favor of relaxing the assumption of complete consumption insurance is weak. An extensive Monte Carlo investigation highlights the relationship between the economic implications of limited participation and the resulting statistical properties of commonly used test statistics. The simulation results provide direct evidence relating observation error in consumption and the resulting small-sample properties of the test statistics. JEL Classifications: G12, D91, and E21 Keywords: consumption asset pricing models, limited capital market participation, heterogeneous consumers, incomplete consumption insurance We thank John Cochrane, Lubos Pastor and Geert Rouwenhorst for helpful comments. We remain responsible for errors. Constantinides acknowledges financial support from the Center for Research in Security Prices, University of Chicago. E-mail addresses: Brav, brav@mail.duke.edu; Constantinides, gmc@gsb.uchicago.edu; Geczy, geczy@wharton.upenn.edu...
Why is consumption so smooth? The Review of Economic Studies
- J Y Campbell
- A Deaton
J. Y. Campbell and A. Deaton. Why is consumption so smooth? The Review
of Economic Studies, 56(3):357–373, July 1989.