Dampak moneter: kebijakan defisit anggaran pemerintah dan peranan asa nalar dalam simulasi model makro-ekonomi Indonesia


A b s t r a c t The purpose of this research is to observe the impact of the budget deficit policy on the macro-economic variables in general, and specifically on the monetary variables in the short and long run. We apply macroeconomic model with rational expectation specification to allow agents altering their economic decision in encountering the authority policies. The model constructed contains eight (8) long run behavior equations, eight (8) short run behavior equations, four (4) rational expectation equations, and at least twelve (12) identity equations. The parameters are estimated by using the Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) method. The endogenous variables which has become the independent variables are replaced by the instrument al variables. The instrumental variables are obtained from the reduced form structural equations. The statistical test on the impact of budget deficit on monetary variables are conducted by using reduced form equations and causality test. Both of the tests show that budget deficit through the government revenue mechanism affects the interest rate in the short and long run. In the short run through government expenditure mechanism, budget deficit would affect the exchange rate and price level. In the long run, however, causality tests show that the exchange rate and price level would in turn affect the budget deficit.

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    • "Stability test results for individually equation shows that the private investment equation, money supply equation and private consumption equation tend to be unsatisfactory or unstable according to criterion of CUSUM test. This condition can be explained that instability behavior of the independent variable, primarily due to shocks caused by changes in economic regimes [18]. Stability test result for private consumption equation in short term period and long term period can be seen inFig. "

    Full-text · Article · Jan 2013