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Individual Investors and Option Trading: Attention Grabbing Versus Long-Term Strategies
Abstract
This paper analyzes trading records of online retail bank investors to examine whether attention-type events dominate return feedback strategies in explaining individual investors’ stock option trading decisions. We show that although individual investors are net buyers of common stock on abnormally high volume days, they follow contrarian investment strategies after extreme prior day stock price performance. Moreover, we find that individual investors especially exploit stock options to follow contrarian investment strategies in that they initiate over twice as many bullish-type (nearly half as many bearish-type) option contracts after extremely poor (good) prior-day returns. Further, we observe variance in contrarian behavior across investor types: extremely optimistic investors pursue contrarian investment strategies more (less) pronounced around highly negative (positive) prior day returns. Finally, we show that the same extreme optimists especially overweigh short-term compared to long-term return feedback information in making individual stock option trading decisions. Combined, this study provides novel insights in the dynamics of individual investors’ option trading decisions and in the distinctive roles of cognitive biases underlying this process.
... find that 82 RBF 9,1 upward changes in return expectations of portfolio, which is an indicative optimism, are positively related to investor's trading, portfolio turnover, larger trade values and usage of derivatives. Beuselinck et al. (2011) show the influence of psychometric measure of dispositional optimism on individual's option trading in a survey data combined with trading records in the Netherlands. Dispositional optimism measured as life orientation test indicates that even with the negative return experiences option traders exercise more options due to optimistic expectations. ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to examine the relationships among perception of past portfolio returns, optimism and financial decisions.
Design/methodology/approach
The relationships are examined using a data set of both retail and institutional investors in Malaysia and estimated using ordinary least square regression.
Findings
The results demonstrate that perception of past portfolio returns influences both retail and institutional investors’ trading and risk taking. Optimism measured as relative investment optimism and personal investment optimism similarly influences both groups of investors’ financial decisions. However, perception of past portfolio returns causes only retail investors to exhibit optimism. The results furthermore show that only for retail investors perception of past portfolio returns indirectly influences financial decisions, through the mediating channel of optimism.
Practical implications
The findings on the influences of perception of past portfolio returns and the mediating channel in decision process help to understand the differences between retail and institutional investors. Retail investors are found to be more susceptible to optimism. Therefore, regulators in Malaysia may enhance their initiatives by incorporating the peril of forming optimistic expectations in financial decisions, by giving special focus on retail investors.
Originality/value
This paper focuses on investors’ perception of past portfolio returns and its influence on various financial decisions, unlike past portfolio returns or market returns. Also, this paper is among the first to demonstrate the mediating channel of optimism in investors’ decision process.
... The differential effects of optimism on trading indicate that the definition of optimism differs from each other. This finding contributes to the literature on trading as the relevant literature documents only optimism's effect on equity investment and option trading (Puri and Robinson, 2007;Beuselinck et al., 2011). ...
Purpose
The purpose of this paper is to test the competing explanations of stated preferences for firm characteristics, optimism and overconfidence for trading activities in a single framework.
Design/methodology/approach
A survey methodology is followed to collect the data among retail investors in Malaysia using simple random sampling.
Findings
The findings show simultaneous identification of stated preferences for firm characteristics, optimism and overconfidence as determinants of trading activities. Preferences for firm’s profitability characteristics, management and product-related attributes and risky characteristics are likely to decrease investors’ trading activities. On the other hand, preferences for firm’s liquidity and trading volume characteristics with relative financial-domain optimism, personal investment optimism and better-than-average aspect of overconfidence are likely to increase investors’ trading activities.
Practical implications
This finding implies that investors should be careful not only in assessing firm’s characteristics but also need to understand the effects of optimism and overconfidence in trading decisions.
Originality/value
The study considers various aspects of optimism and overconfidence, and the stated preferences for firm characteristics, unlike one aspect of these behavioral biases and indirect observation of preferences for firm characteristics. Furthermore, the study considers trading frequency, annual portfolio turnover and trading intention, whereas earlier studies considered only one or two of these trading decisions.
Bu çalışma, bireysel yatırımcıların yatırım kararları üzerindeki davranışsal finans eğilimlerini inceleyerek, finansal okuryazarlık ve risk algısının aracı rollerini değerlendirmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Klasik ekonomi ve finans teorileri, bireylerin rasyonel kararlar aldığını varsaymasına rağmen, yatırımcıların irrasyonel finansal davranışlar sergilediği gözlemlenmektedir. Davranışsal finans literatürü, yatırımcıların duygusal tepkiler, bilgi eksiklikleri ve risk algısı nedeniyle rasyonel olmayan kararlar verebileceğini öne sürmektedir. Çalışma kapsamında, İstanbul’da yaşayan 19 yaş ve üzeri 841 bireysel yatırımcıyla anket uygulanarak nicel bir analiz gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, kendine aşırı güven, kontrol yanılsaması, pişmanlıktan kaçınma, sürü davranışı ve kendini kontrol etme eğilimlerinin yatırım kararlarını olumlu etkilediği tespit edilmiştir. Ayrıca, finansal okuryazarlık ve risk algısının, davranışsal finans eğilimleri ile yatırım kararları arasındaki ilişkide aracı değişken rolü oynadığı belirlenmiştir. Bu bulguların, bireysel yatırım kararlarının daha iyi anlaşılmasına katkı sağlayarak literatüre teorik ve ampirik düzeyde katkı sunması beklenmektedir.
The levels of diversification in U.S. investors' equity portfolios present a puzzle. Today's optimal level of diversification, measured by the rules of mean-variance portfolio theory, exceeds 300 stocks, but the average investor holds only 3 or 4 stocks. The diversification puzzle can be solved, however, in the context of behavioral portfolio theory. In behavioral portfolio theory, investors construct their portfolios as layered pyramids in which the bottom layers are designed for downside protection and the top layers are designed for upside potential. Risk aversion gives way to risk seeking at the uppermost layer as the desire to avoid poverty gives way to the desire for riches. But what motivates this behavior is the aspirations of investors, not their attitudes toward risk. Some investors fill the uppermost layer with the few stocks of an undiversified portfolio; others fill it with lottery tickets. Neither lottery buying nor undiversified portfolios are consistent with mean-variance portfolio theory, but both are consistent with behavioral portfolio theory.
We use the Ohlson (1995, 1999) and Feltham-Ohlson (1999) valuation models to compare the extent to which Accounting Principles Board Opinion 25: Accounting for Stock Issued to Employees (APB 25), Statement of Financial Accounting Standards No. 123: Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation (SFAS 123), and the Exposure Draft: Accounting for Stock-Based Compensation reflect the market's assessment of the effects of employee stock options on firm value for a sample of 85 profitable computer software firms. Findings from the SFAS 123 approach indicate the market appears to value ESO expense not as an expense but as an asset. Most notably, the results suggest that investors perceive that employee stock options create an intangible asset that they value more highly than other assets of the firm. The Exposure Draft approach, according to our findings, best captures the market's perception of the economic effect of employee stock options (ESO) on firm value for profitable computer software companies. However, we find a conflict in (1) the positive manner in which investors appear to value ESO expense, and (2) the negative relation between current ESO expense and future abnormal earnings. This conflict could be a an artifact of the restrictiveness of the abnormal earnings forecasting equation we estimate, although it also calls into question whether investors in profitable software companies assess correctly the effect of ESOs on profitable software firms value.
This research examines the role of gender and optimism on the riskiness of investment choices of students in a semester long investment contest with both monetary and academic incentives. Data suggest that males make more risky investment choices than females, and that this difference was primarily due to the riskier choices of optimistic males. In addition, males demonstrated greater variability in final portfolio value than did females. Our results suggest that 1) the well documented gender difference in investment strategies of men and women may be due to a specific sub-group of males (i.e., optimists); 2) that optimism may lead to different behavioral tendencies in men and women depending on the domain; and 3) that the benefits of optimism may be restricted to domains in which continued effort and information seeking are likely to lead to desired outcomes.
We provide large sample evidence that past price extremes influence investors' trading decisions. Volume is strikingly higher, in both economic and statistical terms, when the stock price crosses either the upper or lower limit of its past trading range. This increase in volume is more pronounced the longer the time since the stock price last achieved the price extreme, the smaller the firm, the higher the individual investor interest in the stock, and the greater the ambiguity regarding valuation. These results are robust across model specifications and controls for past returns and news arrival. Volume spikes when price crosses either the upper or lower limit of the past trading range, then gradually subsides. After either event, returns are reliably positive and, among small investors, trades classified as buyer-initiated are elevated. Overall, results are more consistent with bounded rationality - specifically, the attention hypothesis posited by Barber and Odean (2008) - than with other candidate explanations.
The large theoretical literature about bubbles includes models where naive individuals cause excessive price movements and smart money trades against (and potentially eliminates) a bubble or where sophisticated investors follow market prices and help drive a bubble. We examine these competing views by focusing on investor activity over the spectacular rise and fall of Nasdaq from September 1999 through 2001. We find that both institutional ownership levels and volume on Nasdaq were high. Institutions bought shares from individuals the day after market up-moves and institutions sold on net following market dips. These patterns are pervasive throughout the market run-up and subsequent crash period. This short-term institutional trend-chasing behavior does not appear to be mechanically induced by flows into and out of mutual funds. Our evidence supports the view that institutions contributed more than individuals to the Nasdaq rise and fall.
Research on dispositional optimism as assessed by the Life Orientation Test (Scheier & Carver, 1985) has been challenged on the grounds that effects attributed to optimism are indistinguishable from those of unmeasured third variables, most notably, neuroticism. Data from 4,309 subjects show that associations between optimism and both depression and aspects of coping remain significant even when the effects of neuroticism, as well as the effects of trait anxiety, self-mastery, and self-esteem, are statistically controlled. Thus, the Life Orientation Test does appear to possess adequate predictive and discriminant validity. Examination of the scale on somewhat different grounds, however, does suggest that future applications can benefit from its revision. Thus, we also describe a minor modification to the Life Orientation Test, along with data bearing on the revised scale's psychometric properties.
Three studies examined the relation between dispositional optimism and gambling. In Study 1, optimists were more likely than pessimists to have positive gambling expectations and report maintaining these expectations following losses. They also were more likely to indicate that winning money was a primary motivation for their gambling. Study 2 demonstrated that pessimists but not optimists reduce their betting and expectations after poor gaming performance. Study 3 replicated this effect using a more controlled experiment and showed that after losing, optimists report remembering more near wins than do pessimists. Thus, all three studies suggest that optimists, more than pessimists, maintain positive expectations and continue gambling after experiencing negative gaming outcomes. The authors suggest that despite optimism's many benefits, there are common situations in which the pessimistic tendency to disengage is beneficial.
Behavioral finance models often rely on a concept of noise traders who are prone to judgment and decision-making errors. What do noise traders do? We review prior research and present new survey evidence on the behavior of small individual investors who manage their own equity portfolios. Many people (1) discover naive patterns in past price movements, (2) share popular models of value, (3) are not properly diversified, and (4) trade in suboptimal ways.
Optimism, or positive outcome expectancy, correlates with better psychological and physiological adjustment, in part because of conscious behavior such as coping. However, procedural, automatic, and unconscious processes also may affect adjustment. The emotional Stroop task was used to assess the relationships between optimism and unconscious attentional bias for positively valenced, negatively valenced, neutral current concern, and neutral control stimuli. Undergraduate students (n = 48) completed personality measures at the beginning of the semester and completed the Stroop task under separate cover. Optimism was associated with a greater attentional bias for positive stimuli relative to negative stimuli. Optimism also was associated with slower skin conductance response rates during negative stimuli. Unconscious attentional biases may contribute to the better adjustment associated with optimism.
This paper analyzes the early exercise of exchange-traded options by different classes of investors over the 1996 to 1999 period. A large number of exercises are identified as clearly irrational without invoking any model of market equilibrium. Customers of discount brokers and customers of full-service brokers both engage in a significant number of irrational exercises while traders at large investment houses exhibit no irrational early exercise behavior. Rational and irrational exercise is triggered for discount and full-service customers by the underlying stock price attaining its highest level over the past year and by high returns on the underlying stock.
The field of modern financial economics assumes that people behave with extreme rationality, but they do not. Furthermore, people's deviations from rationality are often systematic. Behavioral finance relaxes the traditional assumptions of financial economics by incorporating these observable, systematic, and very human departures from rationality into standard models of financial markets. We highlight two common mistakes investors make: excessive trading and the tendency to disproportionately hold on to losing investments while selling winners. We argue that these systematic biases have their origins in human psychology. The tendency for human beings to be overconfident causes the first bias in investors, and the human desire to avoid regret prompts the second.
This article uses a unique option data set to provide detailed descriptive statistics on the purchased and written open interest
and open buy and sell volume of several classes of investors. We also show that volatility trading through straddles and strangles
accounts for a small fraction of option trading volume and presents evidence that a large percentage of call writing is part
of covered call positions. Finally, we find that during the stock market bubble of the late 1990s and early 2000 the least
sophisticated investors in the data set substantially increased their purchases of calls on growth but not value stocks. (JEL: G0, G1, G12, G13, G14)
We analyze the trading behavior of individual investors in option-like securities, namely bank-issued warrants, and thus expand the growing literature of investors behavior to a new kind of securi-ties. A unique data set from a large German discount broker gives us the opportunity to analyze the trading behavior of 1,454 investors, making 89,958 transactions in 6,724 warrants on 397 underlyings. In different logit regression, we make use of the facts that investors can speculate on rising and falling prices of the underlying with call and put warrants and that we also have information about the stock portfolios of the investors. We report several facts about the trading behavior of individual investors in warrants that are consistent with the literature on the behavior of individual investors in the stock market. The warrant investors buy calls and sell puts if the price of the underlying has decreased over the past trading days and they sell calls and buy puts if the price of the underlying has increased. That means, the investors follow negative feedback trading strategies in all four trading categories observed. In addition, we find strong evidence for the disposition effect for call as well as put warrants. The trading behavior is also influenced if the underlying reaches some exceptionally prices, e.g. highs, lows or the strike price. We show that hedging, as one natural candidate to buy puts, does not play an important role in the market for bank-issued warrants. The probability to buy calls is positively related to the holding of the underlying in the portfolio, meaning that investors tend to leverage their stock positions, while the relation between put purchases and portfolio holdings of the underlying is negative. Differences in the trading behavior in warrants with stock market indexes or single stocks as underlings are small.
We create a novel measure of optimism using the Survey of Consumer Finance by comparing self-reported life expectancy to that implied by statistical tables. This measure of optimism correlates with positive beliefs about future economic conditions and with psychometric tests of optimism. Optimism is related to numerous work/life choices: more optimistic people work harder, expect to retire later, are more likely to remarry, invest more in individual stocks, and save more. Interestingly, however, moderate optimists display reasonable financial behavior, whereas extreme optimists display financial habits and behavior that are generally not considered prudent.
This paper examines investors' option activity on value and growth stocks before earnings announcements. The main finding is that unsophisticated investors enter option positions that load up on growth stocks relative to value stocks in the days leading up to earnings announcements. This occurs despite the fact that at earnings announcements value stocks outperform growth stocks by a wide margin. The paper's results provide evidence that unsophisticated option market investors (1) overreact to past news on underlying stocks and (2) mistakenly believe that mispriced stocks will move even further away from fundamentals at impending scheduled news releases.
We examine whether executive stock options (ESOs) provide managers with incentives to invest in risky projects. For a sample of oil and gas producers, we examine whether the coefficient of variation of future cash flows from exploration activity (our proxy for exploration risk) increases with the sensitivity of the value of the CEO's options to stock return volatility (ESO risk incentives). Both ESO risk incentives and exploration risk are treated as endogenous variables by adopting a simultaneous equations approach. We find evidence that ESO risk incentives has a positive relation with future exploration risk taking. Additional tests indicate that ESO risk incentives exhibits a negative relation with oil price hedging in a system of equations where ESO risk incentives and hedging are allowed to be endogenously determined. Overall, our results are consistent with ESOs providing managers with incentives to mitigate risk-related incentive problems.
This study examines option market liquidity using Ivy DB's OptionMetrics data. We establish convincing evidence of commonality for various liquidity measures based on the bid–ask spread, volumes, and price impact. The commonality remains strong even after controlling for the underlying stock market's liquidity and other liquidity determinants such as volatility. Smaller firms and firms with a higher volatility exhibit stronger commonalities in option liquidity. Aside from commonality, we also uncover several other important properties of the option market's liquidity. First, information asymmetry plays a much more dominant role than inventory risk as a fundamental driving force of liquidity. Second, the market-wide option liquidity is closely linked to the underlying stock market's movements. Specifically, the options liquidity responds asymmetrically to upward and downward market movements, with calls reacting more in up markets and puts reacting more in down markets.
This paper examines the impact of option trading on individual investor performance. The results show that most investors incur substantial losses on their option investments, which are much larger than the losses from equity trading. We attribute the detrimental impact of option trading on investor performance to poor market timing that results from overreaction to past stock market returns. High trading costs further contribute to the poor returns on option investments. Gambling and entertainment appear to be the most important motivations for trading options while hedging motives only play a minor role. We also provide strong evidence of performance persistence among option traders.
This paper analyzes the trading records of a major discount brokerage house to investigate the disposition effect, the tendency to sell stocks that have appreciated in price (winners) sooner than stocks that trade below the purchase price (losers). In contrast to previous research that has demonstrated the disposition effect by aggregating across investors, our main objective is to identify differences in the disposition bias across individuals and explain this in terms of underlying investor characteristics. Building on the findings in experimental economics and social psychology, we hypothesize that differences in investor literacy about financial markets and trading frequency are responsible in part for the variation in individual disposition effect. Using demographic and socioeconomic variables as proxies for investor literacy, we find empirical evidence that wealthier individuals and individuals employed in professional occupations exhibit a lower disposition effect. Consistent with experimental economics, trading frequency also tends to reduce the disposition effect. We provide guidelines for investment advisors, regulators, and investment communities to utilize our findings and help investors make better decisions.
Relatively little is known about the trading volume in derivatives relative to the volume in underlying stocks. We study the time-series properties and the determinants of the options/stock trading volume ratio (O/S) using a comprehensive cross-section and time-series of data on equities and their listed options. O/S is related to many intuitive determinants such as delta and trading costs, and it also varies with institutional holdings, analyst following, and analyst forecast dispersion. O/S is higher around earnings announcements, suggesting increased trading in the options market. Further, post-announcement absolute returns are positively related to pre-announcement O/S, which suggests that at least part of the pre-announcement options trading is informed.
If options are correctly priced in the market, it should not be possible to make sure profits by creating portfolios of long and short positions in options and their underlying stocks. Using this principle, a theoretical valuation formula for options is derived. Since almost all corporate liabilities can be viewed as combinations of options, the formula and the analysis that led to it are also applicable to corporate liabilities such as common stock, corporate bonds, and warrants. In particular, the formula can be used to derive the discount that should be applied to a corporate bond because of the possibility of default.
We investigate stock option exercise decisions by over 50,000 employees at seven corporations. Controlling for economic factors, psychological factors influence exercise. Consistent with psychological models of beliefs, employees exercise in response to stock price trends - exercise is positively related to stock returns during the preceding month and negatively related to returns over longer horizons. Consistent with psychological models of values that include reference points, employee exercise activity roughly doubles when the stock price exceeds the maximum price attained during the previous year. © 2000 the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology
This longitudinal study examined predictors of (1) skin cancer prevention and early detection intentions and (2) compliance with recommendation for medical follow-up for suspicious skin lesions. Subjects were 324 hospital employees who were at increased risk for skin cancer and who participated in a worksite skin cancer screening program. Based on behavioral self-regulation theory and the Health Belief Model, multivariate analyses showed that optimism, perceived risk, reasons for doing skin self-examination (SSE), and SSE frequency prior to screening were the best predictors of intentions to engage in future health promotion behaviors (i.e., monthly SSE, regular sunscreen use, and participation in a skin cancer screening program the following year). Although our results also showed that optimism, reasons for doing SSE, and SSE frequency were the best predictors of compliance with medical follow-up, these three variables accounted for only a small amount of the variance in compliance with recommended follow-up care.
We test and confirm the hypothesis that individual investors are net buyers of attention-grabbing stocks, e.g., stocks in the news, stocks experiencing high abnormal trading volume, and stocks with extreme one-day returns. Attention-driven buying results from the difficulty that investors have searching the thousands of stocks they can potentially buy. Individual investors do not face the same search problem when selling because they tend to sell only stocks they already own. We hypothesize that many investors consider purchasing only stocks that have first caught their attention. Thus, preferences determine choices after attention has determined the choice set.
This paper presents some of the first large-scale survey evidence linking optimism to major economic choices. We create a novel measure of optimism using the Survey of Consumer Finance by comparing a person's self-reported life expectancy to that implied by statistical tables. Optimists are more likely to believe that future economic conditions will improve. Self-employed respondents are more optimistic than regular wage earners. In general, more optimistic people work harder and anticipate longer age-adjusted work careers. They are more likely to remarry, conditional on divorce. In addition, they tilt their investment portfolios more toward individual stocks.
A unique data set allows us to monitor the buys, sells, and holds of individuals and institutions in the Finnish stock market on a daily basis. With this data set, we employ Logit regressions to identify the determinants of buying and selling activity over a two-year period. We find evidence that investors are reluctant to realize losses, that they engage in tax-loss selling activity, and that past returns and historical price patterns, such as being at a monthly high or low, affect trading. There also is modest evidence that life-cycle trading plays a role in the pattern of buys and sells. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.
I test the disposition effect, the tendency of investors to hold losing investments too long and sell winning investments too soon, by analyzing trading records for 10,000 accounts at a large discount brokerage house. These investors demonstrate a strong preference for realizing winners rather than losers. Their behavior does not appear to be motivated by a desire to rebalance portfolios, or to avoid the higher trading costs of low priced stocks. Nor is it justified by subsequent portfolio performance. For taxable investments, it is suboptimal and leads to lower after-tax returns. Tax-motivated selling is most evident in December. Copyright The American Finance Association 1998.
This paper investigates options market reaction to changes in the instantaneous variance of the underlying asset. There are three main findings. First, options market investors underreact to individual daily changes in instantaneous variance. Second, these same investors overreact to periods of mostly increasing or mostly decreasing daily changes in instantaneous variance. Third, they tend to underreact (overreact) to current daily changes in instantaneous variance that are preceded mostly by daily changes of the opposite (same) sign. The third finding can reconcile the first two and is also consistent with well-established cognitive biases. Copyright The American Finance Association 2001.
This paper provides a survey on studies that analyze the macroeconomic effects of intellectual property rights (IPR). The first part of this paper introduces different patent policy instruments and reviews their effects on R&D and economic growth. This part also discusses the distortionary effects and distributional consequences of IPR protection as well as empirical evidence on the effects of patent rights. Then, the second part considers the international aspects of IPR protection. In summary, this paper draws the following conclusions from the literature. Firstly, different patent policy instruments have different effects on R&D and growth. Secondly, there is empirical evidence supporting a positive relationship between IPR protection and innovation, but the evidence is stronger for developed countries than for developing countries. Thirdly, the optimal level of IPR protection should tradeoff the social benefits of enhanced innovation against the social costs of multiple distortions and income inequality. Finally, in an open economy, achieving the globally optimal level of protection requires an international coordination (rather than the harmonization) of IPR protection.
Business cycles in different regions of the United States tend to synchronize. This study investigates the reasons behind this synchronization of business cycles and the consequent formation of a national business cycle. Trade between regions may not be strong enough for one region to "drive" business cycle fluctuations in another region. This study suggests that regional business cycles synchronize due to a nonlinear "mode-locking" process in which weakly coupled oscillating systems (regions) tend to synchronize. There is no definitive test for mode-lock. However, simulations, correlations, Granger causality tests, tests for nonlinearities, vector autoregressions, and spectral analysis reveal modest econometric support for the regional mode-locking hypothesis of business cycle synchronization. Copyright Blackwell Publishers, 2005
Individual investors who hold common stocks directly pay a tremendous performance penalty for active trading. Of 66,465 households with accounts at a large discount broker during 1991 to 1996, those that traded most earned an annual return of 11.4 percent, while the market returned 17.9 percent. The average household earned an annual return of 16.4 percent, tilted its common stock investment toward high-beta, small, value stocks, and turned over 75 percent of its portfolio annually. Overconfidence can explain high trading levels and the resulting poor performance of individual investors. Our central message is that trading is hazardous to your wealth. 1 The investor's chief problem -- and even his worst enemy -- is likely to be himself. Benjamin Graham In 1996, approximately 47 percent of equity investments in the U.S. were held directly by households, 23 percent by pension funds, and 14 percent by mutual funds (Security Industry Fact Book, 1997). Financial economists have extensiv...
We examine changes in the stock trading behavior and investment performance of 1,607 investors who switch from phone based to online trading during the period 1991 to 1996. We compare their trading and performance to that of 1,607 investors with similar size accounts who did not trade online. We find that those who switch to online trading experience unusually strong performance prior to going online, beating the market by more than two percent annually. After going online, they trade more actively, more speculatively, and less profitably than before -- lagging the market by more than three percent annually. A rational response to reductions in market frictions (lower trading costs, improved execution speed, and greater ease of access) does not explain these findings. The increase in trading and reduction in performance of online investors can be explained by overconfidence augmented by self-attribution bias, the illusion of knowledge, and the illusion of control. 1 [The giant] tort...
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