Waiting for the Water to Come? – Poverty Reduction in Times of Climate Change

Abstract

It is the poor who suffer most under the impact of climate change. They are often directly dependent on the natural environment and have few options to escape the consequences of change such as poor harvests, water shortages and illness. Their survival strategies and livelihoods are endangered, in some cases acutely. Climate change makes poverty reduction more difficult. First, it is harder to help people out of poverty when conditions are increasingly uncertain: but climate projections are often uncertain, making it difficult to assess the effectiveness of adaptation measures. Second, there is the danger that climate change will reduce more people to poverty, increasing the numbers of those who need assistance while the resources of those tackling poverty are limited. This paper presents the consequences of climate change, the ways climate change is anticipated to develop in future and aspects which make the poor particularly vulnerable. The focus is on the measures people themselves can take to maintain and adapt their livelihood strategies to the changing climate conditions. We show how poverty reduction is linked to climate change, the fundamental goals and criteria of poverty alleviation and concrete examples of how it can include adaptation to climate change impacts. Various case studies from Tanzania, India and Indonesia illustrate in detail how both people’s own adaptation strategies and the work of organizations like CARE can constitute successful reactions to the consequences of climate change. Finally, conclusions are drawn in the form of recommendations for organizations like CARE.

Full text

Waiting for the water to come?


Dr. Fabian Scholtes, ZEF
Dr. Anna-Katharina Hornidge (Case study Indonesia), ZEF
EDITOR:
CARE DEUTSCHLAND-LUXEMBURG, CENTER FOR DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH (ZEF) 2009
Waiting for the water to come?


 
Foreword 4
  Abstract 6
I. Introduction: climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable 7
II. Climate change 9
 II.1 Climaticeffectsofglobalwarming 9
 II.2 Physicaleffectsbeyondclimatechange 11
 II.3 Consequencesandextremeeffectsofclimatechange:feedbackandtippingelements 13
 II.4 Economicandhealthimpacts 14
III. What climate change impacts are anticipated in future? 15
 III.1 Globalprojections:impacts 18
IV. Climate change and poverty reduction 18
 IV.1 Climatechange,povertyandpovertyreduction:howaretheyrelated? 18
 IV.2 Adaptingtotheimpactsofclimatechange 21
 IV.3 Supportingresilience 22
 IV.4 Criteriaforsuccessfuladaptationmeasures 23
 IV.5 Measures 25
V. Poverty reduction and strategies to secure livelihoods: case studies and lessons learned 27
 V.1 SmallholderfarmersinTanzania:specialisingandreducingdependenceonagriculture 27
 V.2 MicroinsuranceinIndia:thepoorprotectthemselvesagainstrisks 29
VI. Case study West Timor, Indonesia 31
 VI.1 Impactsofclimatechangein(East)Indonesia 31
 VI.2 Toineke,WestTimor:economyandsociety 31
 VI.3 Perceptiblelocalimpactsofclimatechange 32
 VI.4 Copingandadaptationstrategies 35
 VI.5 Toineke:anexampleoflifeinpovertyinconditionsofclimatechange 41
VII. Recommendations: poverty reduction in times of climate change 42
  Bibliography 44
 Imprint 46



limatechangeisaglobal riskforhumanity,asUlrichBeck, well-knownGerman sociologist and
globalizationexpert,hassaid;itwilldetermineourpresentandfutureonascalenotyetforeseen.
Itisprimarily causedbythecountriesoftheNorth,yetthecountries of the Southaremoreseverely
impactedbysomeoftheconsequences.Thisdisproportionateeffectispartlyduetothefactthatlarge
numb ers of pe ople in d eveloping countr ies are highly depend ent on th e natural  environment. A s a
result,thepopulationswhobearthebruntofparticularrisksarethosewhohaveneithercausedclimate
change, nor benefitedfrom the achievementswhich contribute to it. Poorpopulations in developing
countriesareforcedtoreacttoenvironmentalproblemssuchasdroughtsandflooding,watershortages
andchangingrainyseasons:problemswhichtheycanhardlypredictandwhicharecausinganincreasing
senseofuncertainty.Allthisleadstoagrowingneedforinterdisciplinaryandtransdisciplinaryresearch,
whosefindingscanprovideabasisforplanning.
TheCenterforDevelopmentResearch(ZEF)attheUniversityofBonncarriesoutinterdisciplinaryresearch,
aimingtocontributetopovertyreductionandsustainabledevelopment.TheZEF’sgoalistofindlocal
solutions to problemscaused globally andtocombine current researchfindings withthe experience
oflocalpeople.Thispaperfocusesonpreciselythisintegrationofinterdisciplinaryresearchinadevel-
opment context (ZEF) and pract ical, poverty- oriented cooperative development (C ARE).It ef fectively
presentsthecurrentstateofresearchonclimatechangeandpovertyreductionandcombinesthiswith
thelocalknowledgeandinnovationsdevelopedbythepeopleofEastIndonesia.
CAREandZEFaimtopointthewayforfutureresearchincollaborationwithorganisationswhichtackle
poverty.Onlyifpracticalandscientific,localandcross-borderknowledgecanbebroughttogetherwill
theinevitableadaptationstoclimatechangeimpactshaveachanceofsuccess.
Prof.Dr.SolvayGerke
DirectorZEF,DepartmentofPoliticalandCulturalChange

C

 
C

limat e change  is tak ing pla ce world wide; i ts impa cts ar e direc t and se vere – es pecial ly for th e
poorest,whoareleastresponsiblefor thecauses.Climatechange acceleratedbyhumanactivity
isalteringtherhythmofnaturalweathereventssuchasdroughts,floodsandhurricanes.Itisgenerally
assumedthatclimatechangeisexacerbatingpoverty,butwhatistheevidenceforthisassumption?How
exactlyare thesephenomenarelated and whatdoes that mean for an organisationlike CARE, which
combatspovertyworldwide?
Thispaperaimstoprovide anoverview ofthestateofthedebate onpovertyreductioninthe faceof
climatechange.Theauthorshaveinvestigatedthelinksbetweenpovertyandclimatechangeinpractice
andexaminedtheissuesinthelightofacasestudyinIndonesia.Theyhavedeliberatelyselectedacoun-
trywhichisbothparticularlyaffectedbyclimatechangeandalsooneofthosecausingglobalwarming.
Thefindingsareclear:climatechangedoesmaketacklingpovertymoredifficult.Anditseemsthatmore
andmorepeopleareindangerofslippingintopovertyduetochangingenvironmentalconditions.
Thecentralthemeofthispaperisthehumanitariantaskofsecuringpeople’slivelihoods,sinceindividuals
andtheirimmediateenvironmentarethelowestcommondenominatorofglobalclimatechangeandits
consequences.Allovertheworld,inAsia,AfricaorLatinAmerica,thepoorestofthepoorareaffected
by climate change andare forced to adapt to the consequences. Their success will dependpartly on
theirknowledge,theircapitalandontheassistancetheyreceive.ForanorganisationsuchasCARE,the
challengeofsustainablepovertyreductionintheeraofclimatechangewilldemandallourstrength.
CAREsupportsmillionsaroundtheworldwhoaresufferingtheeffectsofclimatechange.Forthem,itis
aquestionofsurvival.Thisdailyexperienceshouldremindusthatclimatechangehasahumanface.
Dr.AntonMarkmiller
NationalDirector,CAREDeutschland-Luxemburg



Itisthe poorwho suffermost underthe impactof climate
change.Theyareoftendirectlydependentonthenaturalen-
vironmentandhavefewoptionstoescapetheconsequences
ofchangesuchaspoorharvests,watershortagesandillness.
Theirsurvivalstrategiesandlivelihoods are endangered,in
somecasesacutely.
Climatechangemakespovertyreductionmoredifcult.First,
itishardertohelppeopleoutofpovertywhenconditionsare
increasinglyuncertain:butclimateprojectionsareoftenun-
certain,makingitdifculttoassessthe effectivenessofad-
aptationmeasures.Second,thereisthedangerthatclimate
change willreduce morepeople to poverty,increasing the
numbersofthosewhoneedassistancewhiletheresourcesof
thosetacklingpovertyarelimited.
Thispaperpresentstheconsequencesofclimatechange,the
waysclimatechangeisanticipatedtodevelopinfutureand
aspectswhichmakethepoorparticularlyvulnerable.Thefo-
cusisonthemeasurespeoplethemselvescantaketomain-
tain and adapt their livelihood strategies to the changing
climateconditions.
Weshowhowpovertyreductionislinkedtoclimatechange,
thefundamentalgoalsandcriteriaofpovertyalleviationand
concrete examples of how it can include adaptati on tocli -
mate change impacts. Various case studies from Tanzania,
India and Indonesia illustrate in detail how both people’s
ownadaptationstrategiesandtheworkoforganisationslike
CAREcanconstitutesuccessfulreactionstotheconsequences
ofclimatechange.Finally,conclusionsaredrawnintheform
ofrecommendationsfororganisationslikeCARE.
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ORGANISATIONS ON
POVERTY REDUCTION
 Povertyreductionshouldprioritizeadaptationtochang-
ing climatic conditions (not merely coping with them)
andbebasedonexistinglocalstrategies.
 Local knowledge of relations between climate change
eventsandlocaladaptationoptionsshouldbesystemati-
callyincluded;localpopulationsshould alsobeencour-
agedtodeveloptheirknowledge.
 However, existing practices as well as new strategies
should be crit ically examined applying ve criteria (ef-
fectiveness, exibility, fairness, efciency and sustain-
ability).
 Tackling poverty should promote awareness of and in-
dependentlocaladaptationtothoseclimatechangeim-
pactswhichhavesofarattractedlessattention.
 Theactualimpactsofclimatechangeareextremelyhard
topredict. This fact should not beignored andcurrent
projectionstakenas“certain”whenplanningadaptation
measures.
 Theurgencyofadaptationtoclimatechangeshouldnot
beusedtojustifymeasures(suchasforcedresettlement)
withouttheagreementofthelocalpopulation.
 Poverty reduct ion measures should be realistic and or-
ganizationsshouldconcentratetheirenergies,aimingto
preservethepoorestpeople’sgeneralresilienceandca-
pacitytoact.
 Profound,broad-basedandcriticalanalysisoftheextent
ofclimatechangeimpactsandadaptationmeasuresises-
sential.Common recommendationssuchas diversifying
incomehavesometimesprovedunproductiveorcounter-
productiveintacklingpoverty.

 

THE POOR ARE PARTICULARLY AFFECTED BY CLIMATE
CHANGE AND VULNERABLE TO ITS IMPACTS
Thepoorarebothparticularlyexposedtotheeffectsofcli-
matechange and havefewresourcestocombatit.Thisisa
frequenttopicintheclimatechangediscourse.Butwhatex-
actlydoesitmean?Andhowdoesthisfactaffecttheworkof
organisationswhichtacklepoverty?Thesethoughtswerethe
startingpointforthispaper.Theauthorsassumethefollow-
inghypotheses:
I. Climate change and poverty reduction are inseparable
Howfarclimatechangeanditsconsequencesactuallyaffect
individual lives depends on how vu lnerable they are to its
impacts.Severalfactorsinuencethis:
 Globalclimatechangeimpactsvaryaccordingtolocality.
Theimpactonpeopledepends onlocal climaticeffects
such as rising temperatures or changing precipitation
patterns.Local climatic changes such as heatwaves can
haveanimmediate,directimpactonthepopulation.
 Localecologicalandsocialsystemsarenotequallysensi-
tivetolocalclimaticchanges.Alterationstotheenviron-
mentaffect peopledirectly:if the ground driesoutbe-
cause of rising temperatures,agricultural production is
moredifcult.Therobustnessofthelocalinfrastructure
isalsoasignicantfactor–forexample,whetherroads
canwithstandheavyrainfall.Theseeffectscanreinforce
eachotherandcreateaviciouscircle.
 Theextenttowhichindividualsareactuallyharmedby
these effects depends on how exposed they areto the
consequences(e.g.howdependent they are on agricul-
ture)and howthey resist, cope with or adapt to them.
These coping oradaptationcapacities may include fac-
torssuch as whetherthe localpopulation has accessto
thetechnologyrequiredtomaintainagriculture,wheth-
er they have sufcient cash to impor t food instead or
whethertheycanutilizeothersourcesofincome.
Tosumup,thegreater thescale oflocal climatechangeef-
fectsforthepopulationandthelesstheyareabletoadaptto
theimpacts,thegreaterthedamagethatcanbewroughtby
climatechangeontheirlives.Thepooroftenliveinparticu-
larlyvulnerableareas(regionswithextremeclimates,coastal
areas,regions affectedbyregularriverooding).Thelikeli-
hoodofbeingaffectedbyaclimatedisasterisaroundeighty
timeshigherin developingcountriesthaninmembercoun-
triesoftheOECD(HDR2008:20/21).Inaddition,itistheru-
ralpoorwhoselivelihoodsaredirectlydependentonnatural
resourcesandwhoaremostaffectedbyclimatechange.
Climatechangeisnotthesolecauseofpoverty,butitworks
withotherfactorstointensifytheviciouscirclewhichtraps
peopleinpoverty.Thismakesithardertohelppeopleoutof
thedownwardpovertyspiral.Itisalsolikelythatmorepeo-
plewillfallintopoverty ifclimatechangeunderminestheir
current livelihood strategy. The Stern report (Stern 2006)
statesthat145to220millionpeopleinAfricaandSouthAsia
couldbecomepoorby2100.“Climatechangeisundermining
internationaleffortstoreducepoverty“(HDR2008:10).
Thesetwofactors,theincreaseinnumbersofthepoordueto
climatechangeandtheincreaseddifcultyofassistingthem,
reinforceeachother;thisiswhyclimatechangehasasigni-


                                      
cantinuenceonaidorganisations’work.Thispaperdenes
climatechangemoreprecisely,tracesitsphysicalandsocio-
economiceffectsonpovertyandexamineswhatthismeans
foreffortstotackle poverty.Weshow how climate change
inuencespeople’s opportunities andlivelihood strategies,
soindicatinghowaidorganisationscanreacttoalterations
causedbyclimatechange.Thisisillustrated byexamplesof
howpeoplehaveattemptedtoadapttoclimatechange.The
casestudyofthevillageToinekeshowsverypracticalstrate-
giesandindividual cases and reveals how aid and develop-
mentorganisationscancontributetothereductionofpover-
ty.Thisprovidesabasisforrecommendationsforsuccessful
povertyreductioninthemoredifcultconditionscausedby
climatechange.
Anoutlinepapercannotcoverallaspectsofthetopic.Migra-
tionandconictovernaturalresourceshavebeendiscussed
indetaile.g.in the German Government’sAdvisory Council
onGlobalChange’sreport (WBGU2007)andtherefore are
not dealt with here. Technological advances such as early
warningsystemsarementionedbutnotdescribedindetail.
Thecasestudieswereselectedinviewofthefocusonliveli-
hoodstrategiesandpeople’sadaptationmeasures,especially
thoseofthepoor.




 
II. Climate change
CONSEQUENCES AND PROJECTIONS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
Firstofall,thetermclimatechangereferstotherisingatmos-
phericandoceantemperaturesobservedinrecentdecades.
The global climate has alwaysbeen subject tochange, but
todaytheemissionofgreenhousegasescausedbyhumanac-
tivity–inparticularcarbondioxide,butalsomethaneandni-
trousoxide-reinforcesthenaturalgreenhouseeffectandso
causeglobalwarming.In2004,31%oftheseemissionswere
causedbyagricultureandforestry,40%byindustry,transport
andbuildingsand26%byenergysupply(IPCC2007c:29).The
natural greenhouse effect produces an air temperature at
groundlevelofapprox.15°C,thusenablinglifeasweknow
ittoexist. The additionalanthropogenic greenhouseeffect
iscausingadangerousincreaseinthistemperature.Thisoc-
cursbecauseastheconcentrationofgreenhousegasesinthe
atmosphereincreases, they areheatedby the earth’sinfra-
redradiation andthusproduce more radiation themselves.
This“atmosphericradiation“isreecteddowntoreachthe
earth’ssurfaceinadditiontothesun’senergy,soheatingthe
earthadditionally(Philiponaetal.2004).
II.1.CLIMATIC EFFECTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
Theinitialimpactofclimatechangeisthereforeglobalwarm-
ing.Thisislinkedtoprocesseswherebyclimatechangeaffects
thenaturalenvironmentandthehumanpopulation,particu-
larlyincausingalterationstoweatherpatterns.Climate,inthe
senseofthe“averageweather”inaregion,comprisesrstof
alltemperature,precipitationandwindconditions.
Not only are average air temperatures rising; temperature
extremesmay alsobecomemore frequent.Thereare more
extremely hot days, heat waves occur more often and
extremely cold perio ds will probably occur less frequently.
Risingtemperaturesarealreadyaffectingpeopledirectly,for
examplethosewithcoronaryorbloodpressureproblems.The
poorinhotcountriesareparticularlyaffectedandvulnerable;
they usually have no access to preventive technology
such as air conditioning. They are often malnourished or
undernourishedandcannotcopewiththeheat.
The indirect consequences of r ising temperatures can take
variousforms.Therhythmoftheseasonsalters,sothewarmer
seasons s tart earlie r and last lon ger. In many  regions, this
iscoupled with changes in precipitationpatterns,resulting
inlongerdryperiodsandleadingtomorewatershortages,
curt ailment of grow ing seasons  and reduced har vests. T he
people of Toineke, West Timor, are confronted w ith these
effects, as the case study shows. Geographically, climate
zones and thus vegetation zones are shifting; for example,
previouslytropicalareasarenowthreatenedwithentirelynew
regionalclimates.Theactualadvantagesanddisadvantages
thismay bringtothelocalpopulationareoftenimpossible
toestimate.However,itisalreadyclearthatthereplacement
of forest by savannah and savannah by desert will cause
particul ar problems for people whose livelihood is directly
dependentonnaturalresources.Thiscanbeseeninthearid
zonesofsouthernAfrica(Scholz/Bauer2006).
Climatechangealsoleadstochangingprecipitationpatterns.




 
Inawarmerclimate,globalprecipitationquantitiesincrease,
as rising temperatures cause more evaporation of water,
whichthenfallsasrain.Iftheraindoesnotfallasquicklyas
neartheequator,cloudscarrythewaterintohigherlatitudes.
ThiseffecthasreducedrainfallintheSahelregion,aroundthe
Mediterranean,insouthernAfricaandinpartsofsouthAsia
(IPCC2007a).Thisisleadingtoashiftinareasofrainfall,so
subtropicalregionsarebecomingdrierandhigherlatitudes
wetter.Rainfallwillincreasinglytendtobelessfrequentbut
more intensive. There will be fewer days wi thr ainfall, but
heavyrainfallwillbemorecommonanddryperiodslonger.
Thiscanleadtoextremeweatherconditionssuchasooding
orhighriverlevelsduetoheavyrainfall,orontheotherhand
todroughts.
These effec ts are very different in different locations. The
likelihood of drought is increasing in the Mediterranean,
in southern Africa and in the Brazilian Amazon region in
particular.However,inareaswhererainfallisincreasing,the
amountofsurfacewateravailabletothepopulationwillalso
decrease–becauseofhighlevelsofevaporation.Increasing
rainfallalso tends tooccurinthe rainy season,whichdoes
notimprove water availability in dry periods(Arnell 2004).
Thepooraremostaffected:theyarethersttoloseaccessto
reducedwatersupplies,arelessabletotreatcontaminated
waterandarethusmorevulnerabletodisease.
Thesechangingweatherpatternsliterallydeprivepeopleof
their economic base. Firstly, the dried- out ground is more
subject to erosion; heavier rainfall also contributes to this
effect. Deforestation and overgrazing make the land even
more vulnerable. Secondly, soil degradation will increase,
forexamplethroughsalination,inareaswhereirrigationis
overusedtocompensateformorerapidevaporation(WBGU
2007:74).Agriculturalproductionwillfallasaresult.People
who depend on subsistence farming will be particularly
affected,buttheurbanpoorwillalsofacerisingfoodprices
whentheamountofagriculturallandisreduced.
Changingprecipitationpatternsareveryhardtopredict.This
istypicalforthecentralproblem climatechange causes for
povertyreduction:ontheonehand,futuredevelopmentsare
predeterminedbecauseprocesseshavebeenirrevocablyset
in motion and people must cop e with them. On the other
hand, the future is dangerously uncertain, since previous
knowledge,forexampleaboutwateravailability,isnolonger
applicabletothefuture.Knowledgeofthenewsituationisstill
beinggatheredandisnotcertain;thepeopleaffectedoften
lackawarenessoftheglobalprocessesinvolved.Thisreduces
theircapacityfor action. Previously,variations occurredon
alimitedscaleandcouldbecopedwithbymeasuressuchas




 


watermanagement. However,climatechange haschanged
the scale to such an extent that these coping mechanisms
arenolongersufcient(Millyetal. 2008).Thecombination
ofinevitablityandunpredictabilitymakeitmoredifcultto
plan for the future. The people of Toineke, Indonesia, for
example, do not know whether the ooding will recur in
future,sotheychoosecheaper provisionalmeasuresrather
thanlong-term adaptations. Instead ofraising their houses
onstiltsasalong term solution,theysimplyraise sleeping
andcookingaccommodationandanimalquarters;however,
thisstillleavesthemvulnerabletoooding.Thecoreofthe
problemisthereforethe“deteriorationoftheplanningbase
inthenaturalenvironment”(WBGU2007:70)–bothforthe
people’sownlivelihoodstrategiesandfortheorganizations
workingtoreducepoverty.
Discussions about wind focus above all on the increasing
frequencyandintensityoftropicalhurricanescausedbyrising
seatemperatures.However,itisdifculttoestablishaclear
relationshipbetweenclimatechangeandincreasingnumbers
of storms (WMO 2006). Future temperature increases are
likelyto boosttherisein numbers ofstorms(WBGU2007),
butsomestudiesdisputeeventhispoint(Knutsonetal.2008).
Thepopulationsofendangeredcoastalareasareincreasing,
sothestormswillhaveincreasingsocietalimpacts.
II.2 PHYSICAL EFFECTS BEYOND CLIMATE CHANGE
Risingtemperaturesaffectnotonlytheclimatebutalsoother
systems,suchastheoceans.Thebest-knowneffectistherise
insealevels,causedbytwofactors:
the expansion of the water as it heats up and the increas-
ingquantityofwaterasglaciersandinlandicesheetsmelt.
Thisprocessendangerslow-lyingislands,coastalregionsand
riverdeltasinparticular.Floodserodethecoastline,damage
infrastructure and alter groundwater and drinking water,
sometimes als o causing disease through water contamina-
tion.Thiswillinevitablyaffectlargenumbersofpeople,be-
cause approx. 70% ofthe world’spopulationlive inthese
areas.Thepoorwillfeeltheeffectsevenmore,becausethey
tendtoliveinlessshelteredareasininadequatehousingand
aredependentonnaturalresourceswhicharedestroyedby
ooding. Even if they are able to move away from the af-
fected areas, they lose their livelihoods and do not always
succeedin nding newlivelihoodsevenincities(IISD2003:
14).An annualsea levelriseof only40 centimeters would
oodtheregionswhicharehometo95millionpeople,afth
ofwhomliveinsouth-eastAsia(Wassmannetal.2004).
Risingocean temperatures enablethe seas to absorbsome
oftheexcesscarbondioxideintheatmosphere;theyactas
carbonsinks,thuscounteractingclimatechange.However,as
theCO2isabsorbedbythewater,theoceansbecomemore
acidic,endangeringthecoralreefswhichatpresentsheltera
richvarietyofmarinelifeandtheminuteseacreaturesatthe
bottomoftheoceanfoodchains(WBGU2006).
Oceancurrentsarealsochanging.Uptonowtherehavebeen
fearsthattheconstantcirculationprovidedbytheNorthAt-
lanticDriftmightbeweakenedoreveninterruptedbyclimate
change.Thiswouldcausea massive drop in temperature in
western and northern Europe. However, it is also possible
thatoceancurrentswillbecomestronger(Toggweiler/Russel
2008). Both acidi cation and changing currents affec t sh-

 
ery,another areawhere thepoor arethe rst to suffer,as
their small boats do not allow them to follow the remain-
ing sh reserves. In the end, climate change w ill affect all
ecosystems.Ahugelossofbiodiversityislikely,thoughthis
effect w ill also vary from place to place. In polar regions,
warmingcouldincreasebiodiversity(Weller2007:1017).The
increasedspeedof change inbiodiversity,especiallyextinc-
tions,canunbalanceecosystems.Thisaffectsnotonlynature
lovers,butthewholeofhumanity,sincewearealldepend-
entonthesesystems.

BOX 1: CASCADE EFFECTS:
A DAM BURST SCENARIO
Apaper bytheFeinsteinInternationalCenter(2008)illus-
tratesthecascadeeffectwithadisasterscenarioinwhich
global warmin g causes the Tibet an glaciers to me lt. The
water combines with extreme rainfall to ll the Three
GorgesDamsothatthewatertriggersseismicactivity.The
earthquakesandwater pressure break thedam,ooding
citiesdownriverwith2.5millioninhabitants.Politicalun-
restfollows;investorswithdraw;theresultisaneconomic
crisis etc.Attheend of thecascade, 1 millionpeopleare
dead,4milliondisplacedandtheeconomiccostrunsinto
hundredsofbillionsofUSdollars.
Climate change also lies behind less dramatic chains of
eventswhichalso have disastrous effects, e.g.failedhar-
vests,leadingtomigrationofworkers,increasingpopula-
tionpressureinthecitiesanddepopulationofruralareas.
Thismaycausemorepressureonurbaninfrastructureand
thecollapseoftheruraleconomy.



 
Otherconsequenceswhichaffectpoorercountriesinparticu-
lararethe reductionofmonsoonrainfallinIndiaandWest
AfricaortheincreasingfrequencyandseverityoftheElNiño
phenomenon, which causes various effects including ex-
tremelyheavyrainfallinthecountriesontheeasternPacic
rim(Lentonetal.2008).
II.3 CONSEQUENCES AND EXTREME EFFECTS
OF CLIMATE CHANGE: FEEDBACK AND TIPPING
ELEMENTS
Risingtemperaturesdue toclimatechangenotonlycausedi-
rectalterationsintheweatherortheoceans.Feedbackeffects
also occur, where climate change impacts themselves affect
theclimate,oftenreinforcingtheeffects.
Forexample,themeltingoftheArcticicecapmeansthatless
solar energy is reected ba ck into space, so increasing at-
mospheric temperature. The ice b ecomes sea water, which
isdarker,absorbs more solarenergy,becomes warmer and
causestheicetomeltfaster–negativefeedback,infact.And
ifthehugemethane reserveslockedasgashydratesinthe
Siberianpermafrostordeepintheoceanshouldbereleased
by climate change, they will give the greenhouse effect a
massiveboost.
Theconsequencesaffectnotjusttheglobalclimatebutalso
havesocietaleffects.Achangeintheweathercantriggeran
uncontrollablecascadeofeconomicandsocietaleffects(see
box1).Oneofthedifcultieswithcascadeeffectsisthatitis
oftenunclearwhat willhappen next.Simultaneouseffects,
whereseveraleventsoccuratonetime,areanotherproblem.
Ifa heatwaveand ooding occursimultaneously, a society
maynotbeabletocopewiththesubsequentdoubledisrup-
tionofwaterreserves.
Climate change impacts are not all gradual: they can also
triggerdevelopmentswhichaltertheglobalsystemabruptly
anddrastically.Theclimatesystemhastippingpointswhere
eventsachieve anuncontrollable momentum; for example,
theAmazon rain forestwill dry out irreversibly once ithas
reached a certain threshold; the North Atlantic Drift may
weaken;theGreenland icesheetwillmeltirreversibly once
certaintemperatureshavebeenreached(WBGU2007:77ff).

 



 
II.4 ECONOMIC AND HEALTH IMPACTS
Theclimatechangeeffectsdescribedimpactthepoorinpar-
ticular.Around60–70%ofthepoorworldwideliveinrural
areas,mainly fromagriculture.This isthe economic sector
mostaffected(seeFig. 1, from:HDR2008:23).Subsistence
farmersaremostendangerediftheyhavenoalternativein-
comesources.
IItisimpossibletosayatpresenthowfarothereconomicsec-
torswillbeaffected(WBGU2007:75).Itisforeseeablethat
long-term energydemands willincrease as rising tempera-
turesleadtoincreasedcoolingrequirements,whichwillnot
be entirely compensated for by reduced heating d emands.
An upsurge in energy prices w ill have a corresponding ef-
fect on effor ts to reduce poverty. Extreme weather events
willalsoaffecttheinsuranceindustry,withconsequencesfor
attemptstogivethepooraccesstomicroinsurances,tohelp
themsafeguardthemselvesagainstlossesduetotheweather
(seealsothecasestudyonIndia,page29).Tourismmayalso
beaffectedwithknock-oneffectsonthepoor;itispredicted
thattourism,andthusasourceofincome,willshiftfromde-
velopingcountriestomorenorthernlatitudes.
Apartfromthesetrends,itisuncleartowhatextentindividu-
alsectorswillbeaffected.Discussionisfocussingincreasing-
lyonclimatechange’soveralleffectsonnationaleconomies.
Thebest-knowncalculationisprobablythatpresentedinthe
Sternreport(Stern 2006), where an inevitable lossof 5%,
possiblyupto20%,ofglobalgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)
ispredictedifclimatechangeisnotsloweddown.Theseare
controversialgures. According to theIPCC, however,most
calculationsagreethatariseofafewdegreescelsiusinglo-
baltemperatures would causeglobal GDPlosses of several
percent.This effect,too,willhitsomecountriesdispropor-
tionatelyhard,especiallythoseinlowerlatitudes.Reductions
ofupto30%insomesmallnationaleconomiesarealready
beingpredictedforaglobaltemperatureriseof2°C(WBGU
2007:76).Thepoorarenotonlygeographicallymorevulner-
abletonegativegrowth;anothereffectwillbethatshrinking
taxincomeswillleavestateswithevenlessfundingforsocial
anddevelopmentpolicy(Cordetal.2008).
Increasesinrainfall,oodinganddroughtarealsoaccompa-
niedby a higherincidence ofwater-borne diseases,in par-
ticulardiarrhoea,choleraandtyphus.Accordingtothepeo-
pleofToineke,diarrhoealillnessesspreadwithinweeks.The
incidenceofthesediseasesispredictedtoriseespeciallyin
East,SouthandSoutheastAsia,duetoacombinationoflack
ofcleanwater,pollutionofexistingwatersources, general
livingconditionsandlevelsofhygiene.Changesinthelocal
watersituationcanalsoleadtomosquito-bornediseases;the
insectsbreedwherever(contaminated)surfacewatercollects,
e.g.throughincreasedrainfallorthewideruseofirrigation
systems.Theregionsandperiodsaffectedbytheseillnesses
willexpand.SouthernAfrica,theHornofAfrica (Cordetal.


Global
Developing countries
Asia
Middle East and North Africa
Latin America
Africa
Industrialized countries
Changes in agricultural production potential
(2080s, in % of the potential of 2000)
     

 
2008)and Central Asia(IPCC2007b:408)arethreatenedby
thespreadofmalaria.Theincidenceofdenguefeverwillin-
creaseinurbanareaswherethelackofwastewaterdisposal
systemsprovidesmosquitoes with breeding grounds. Most
ofthe victims will be the urban poor,subsistence farmers,
groupswith weaker immune systems(theelderly,children)
andcoastaldwellers(WBGU2007:77).
Fig. 2 (after Cord et al. 2008) summarises some effects of
climatechangeandtheirdiverse,complexinteraction.Italso
illustrates the particul ar vulnerability of the poor to these
impacts.
At present it is hardly possible to predict how the climate
changeeffectsdescribedabovewill actuallyplay out inin-
dividualregions.Thisismainlyduetotwofactors(C.Müller
2009:9ff).First,theglobalclimateissocomplexthatallmod-
elsofitare verysimplied,i.e.only partialand/orapproxi-
mate.Retrospectivemodellingofglobaltemperaturesinthe
twentiethcenturyarerelativelygood;however,precipitation
patterns and regional detail s areina ccurately represented.
TemperaturerisesshowninhalfthemodelsforAfricawere
lowerthanwereactuallyobserved.Rainfallwas30%under-
or 79 % overestimated in the models compared to actual
III. What climate change
impacts are anticipated in
future?



Climatechangeand
climaticimpacts
Directimpacts
Degradationandlossof
naturalresources
Spreadofenvironmen-
tallycauseddiseases
Lossofnaturalhabitats
andbiodiversity
Reducedincomefrom
agriculture,fisheryandna-
ture-dependenteconomy
Deterioratinghealth;
decliningcapacitytoact
andadapt
Migrationtriggered
byenvironmental
developments
Alterationstorelativeprices:
foodpricesrise,affecting
thepoorinparticular
Slowergrowth:f iscal
marginfore.g.socialpolicy
declines
Growingriskofconflict
Impactsonhouseholds Socialimpacts
Renewed,additionalandworseningpovertyandpovertytraps

 
projected development of total CO2 emis-
sionsintheatmosphereduringthe21stcen-
turyaccordingtoeachofsixIPCCscenarios.
Italso illustrates the maximum total emis-
sions and the climate-friendly CO2 budget
requiredforthiscenturyifdisastrousclimate
change is tobe avoided.The conclusion is
thatdangerouslevelsofclimatechangecan
only be prevented if future emissions are
halvedby2050comparedto1990levelsand
subsequentlyreducedevenfurther.
amounts(ibid.,p.17).Projectionsbasedonthesemodelsare
correspondinglyunreliable.
Second,thedriversofclimatechange,aboveallgreenhouse
gasemissions,varydependingonhumandecisions–which
areunpredictable.Thisiswhyscenariosareusedtodescribe
alternative emissions processes. Another important func-
tionofthescenariosisthattheyalsoindicatewhatalterna-
tivecoursesofactionarenecessarytoavoidclimatechange
reachingdangerousproportions.TheIPCC’sscenariosshow
projected future situations with variations in population
growth, technological change, energy use, energy sources
andlanduse(Nakicenovic/Swart2000),factorswhichsigni-
cantlyaffectthescaleofemissionsandofclimatechange.
TheCarbonBudget2007reportpublishedinSeptember2008
(TheGlobalCarbonProject2008)showshowCO2emissions
haveincreasedinrecentyears,risingfourtimesfastersince
2000 than before. Th e following diagram from the Human
Development Report 20 07/20 08 (HDR 2008: 20) shows the

 

7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.456
1.000
2000 2032 2042 2100
0
Fig.3


1IPCCscenarioA1FI
2IPCCscenarioA2
3IPCCscenarionA1B
4IPCCscenarioB2
5IPCCscenarioA1T
6IPCCscenarioB1
7Sustainableemissionscurve
CO2budgetwhichwould
preventdangerousclimate
change
Explanation: the   describe plausible future global developments in population,
economicgrowth,technologicalchangeandrelatedCO2emissions. The assumestrong
populationandeconomicgrowth,linkedtodependencyonfossilfuels(A1FI),non-fossilfuels(A1T)or
acombinationof both (A1B). The   assumes weaker economic growth,a lesserdegreeof
globalizationandmuchhigherpopulationgrowth.Theandincludeacertainreduction
in emissions due to increasingly efc ient useof resources and technological improvements(B1)or
increasinglydecentralizedsolutions(B2)
Source:Meinshausen20 07
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

 
Inthe long term,very differentrisingtemperaturepatterns
arepossible, depending onwhich emissions scenario actu-
allyoccurs. Ifgreenhouse gasconcentrations are stabilised
atbelow 450 ppm (partsper million,the usual measureof
greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere), global
warmingcouldbeheldatatotalof2°Cabovepre-industrial
levels.Increasesbeyondthisraisetoover50%theprobabil-
ity of climate change reaching dangerous levels. If the cli-
mateisnotprotected,risesofupto7°Carepossible.These
areglobalaverages;theguresonthecontinents,especially
inthemostvulnerableareas,aremuchhigher.IntheIPCC’s
twomostextremescenarios,thetemperatureispredictedto
rise2.4–6.4%(worstcase)or1.1to2.9°(bestcase)by2100
(IPCC2007a:749).
Alterationstoprecipitationpatternsaremuchmoredifcult
topredict.Sometendenciesarerelativelyclear,forexample

Afurthertemperatureincreaseofbetween0.4to0.6°Cisex-
pectedtooccurbetween2005and2030.Thiswillbecaused
byexisting emissionsofgreenhouse gases, independentof
howemissionsdevelopin the nearfuture.Accordingtothe
WBGU (2007: 60), only adrasticevent suchas ameteorite
impact could alter this prognosis. The cont inents will heat
up more than the oceans; higher latitudes will also warm
upmoreasmeltingsnowandicecoverresultsinmoresolar
radiationbeingabsorbedinsteadofreected.
Inhabitantsofpolarareaswillbeparticularlyaffectedastem-
peraturestherewillriserapidly.Itismuchharderfornature
andhumanstocope witha rapid risethan a gradual,slow
increase.Theeffectswillalsobesevereonthepopulationin
areaswheretheclimateisalreadyhot.Heatwaveslikethat
in2003inEuropewillbethenormin2050.



 
that arid subtropical zones, the Medi terranean region and
southernAfricawillbecomedrier,whereasareasofhighrain-
fallinthe tropics andinhigher latitudes willbecome even
wetter(WBGU2007:62).However,itisnotclearhowrainfall
patterns will develop in the Sahel zone. The long-term de-
velopmentsinhurricaneoccurrencearealsoveryuncertain.
Thetotalriseinsealevelsisalso difculttopredict,mainly
becauseitdependslargelyonhowmuchinlandicemelts.If
noactionistaken,thesealevelisprojectedtorisebyupto
halfametrecomparedto1990levels,possiblyevenupto140
centimetres(Rahmstorf2007).Ifglobalwarmingisstabilised
at3°Ccomparedtothepre-industrialaverage,thesealevel
mayriseby3to5metresby2300(WBGU2007:38).
Looking at specicregional projections (e.g.inIPCC2007a:
ch.11,2007b:ch.9-16;WBGU2007:ch.7),itmustbenoted
that,atbest, changesin the weathercan be projected. Re-
gional or even national project ions of how vulnerable the
populationwillbeinthefaceofthesechangesarestillvery
uncertain atpresent and are sometimeseven dismissedas
“purespeculation”(FeinsteinIC2008:7).
III.1 GLOBAL PROJECTIONS: IMPACTS
Thefollowingdiagram(Fig.4)fromtheGermanAdvisoryCoun-
cilonGlobalChange(WBGU2007:176)showspossibleeffects
ofrisingglobaltemperatures.
An update of the IPCC’s Reasons for Concern from 2001
was published in March 2009 (Smith et al. 2009). These
climateconcerns includethreatened systems (island states,
tropicalglaciersetc),extremeweatherevents, theunequal
distributionofclimatechangeimpactsandmassivealterations
to the earth system (tipping elements). The update shows
thatecosystemsarereactingmorequickly,extremeweather
eventsarehappeningmorefrequentlyandaremoresevere
than anticipated. Greater risks and severe consequences
followingevenslighttemperaturerisesaretobeexpectedin
allaspects.TheinternationalScienticCongressonClimate
Change conrms that the IPCC’s worst case scenarios are
occurringandthatsocietiesareextremelyvulnerabletoeven
moderatechangesinclimate.
IV.1 CLIMATE CHANGE, POVERTY AND POVERTY
REDUCTION: HOW ARE THEY RELATED?
Wehavealreadyshown themostimportantlinkbetween cli-
matechangeandpovertyreduction:climatechangecausesand
exacerbates poverty, while also impeding development and
povertyreductionbymakingthefutureavailabilityofnatural
resourcesdoubtful.However,povertyandlackofdevelopment
alsoreducepeople’sabilitytoreacttoclimatechange;inother
works,povertyitself aggravates the consequencesofclimate
changeforthoseaffected.
Therearehoweverotherlinksbetweenclimatechange,pov-
erty reduc tion and development. Does povert y also play a
part in causing climate change? That would be the case
wherepovertycontributestonon-sustainablelanduseprac-
tices,producinghighgreenhousegasemissions.IntheAma-
zonregionof Brazil,for example, poor smallholderfarmers
areinvolvedinthedestructionoftherainforest,butonlyas
theweakestlinkinachainmainlyconsistingofmorepower-
fulactors–thetimber,beefandsojaindustries.Soeachcase

IV. Climate change and poverty
reduction

 




Food
Water
Ecosystems
Extreme weather conditions
Risk of rapid climate
change and large-scale
irreversible effects
Final temperature levels (compared to preindustrial levels
0° C 1° C 2° C 3° C 4° C 5° C
Disappearance of small
glaciers worldwide – potential
threat to water supply in
many areas
Considerable changes in water availability
Over 30% increase on flowing
away of surface water in the
Mediterranean region and in
southern Africa
Rising sea levels threaten large
cities such as London, Shanghai,
New York, Tokyo or Hong Kong
Coral reef ecosystems
extensively damaged;
damage finally irreversible
Possible start of breakdown
of parts of or all the Amazon
rain forest
Large proportion of ecosystems which cannot preserve their present form
Many species threatened
with extinction
Increasing intensity of storms, forest fires, flooding and heatwaves
Slight increase in hurricane
intensity causes twice as much
damage in dollars in the USA
Danger of weakening of natural carbon dioxide sinks and the Atlantic
thermohaline circulation; possible increase in release of natural methane
Start of irreversible melting
of Greenland icecap
Increased risk of abrupt, large-scale climate shifts
(e.g. collapse of Atlantic thermohaline circulation or
western Antarctic icesheet)
Severe effects
in the Sahel
zone
Increasing harvests in many
developed regions due to
CO2 fertilizer effect
Decline of harvests in many developed
regions despite CO2 fertilizer effect
Decreasing harvests in many developing regions
Rising number of people threatened
by hunger. Biggest increase in Africa
and West Asia
Severe decline of harvests in
whole regions
(e.g. up to one third of Africa)

 
mustbeconsideredcarefullyindeterminingwhetherpoverty
causesemissions.
Doespovertyreductionalsoreduceemissions?Ifso,itwould
betrueto saynotonlythat“climateprotection equalspov-
erty reduction”, in that reducing climate change would  at
leastbenetthepoorofthefuture,butalsothat“povertyre-
ductionequalsclimateprotection”.However,reducinglarge-
scaleemissionsonanationallevel,whetherinindustrialised,
emerging or developing economies, is themore important
task.
Ispoverty reduction ratherthanclimateprotection thepri-
mary goal? By boosting and industrialising the economy,
development and poverty re duction themselves could con-
tribute to climate change. On the other hand, some argue
thatclimateprotectionwillimpedepovertyreductioninthat
avoidingemissionswillslowdown thegrowth necessaryto
overcomepoverty.
Sometimes a w in-win option bene ting all sides makes it
possible to implement sustainable development, reducing
bothpovertyandemissionsatthesametime.Oneexample
would be strategies to enable the poor to benet d irectly
fromeconomicprotsfromclimateprotection.Inthiscase,
climateprotectionandpoverty reductiongohandinhand,
preventingpovertyarisingfromclimatechangeandreduc-
ingexistingpoverty.Thepoor canoften reduce CO2emis-
sionsorbindtheminbiomass(e.g.byplantingtrees)inrela-
tivelysimpleways.Iftheyarethengivenaccesstomarkets
where they can sell these savings, they can actually earn
more,especiallyiftheyalreadygainanincomefromthese
activities(seebox2).

BOX 2: MI BOSQUE. CLIMATE PROTECTION =
POVERTY REDUCTIONG
The CAREproject Mi Bosque(myforest)in westernGua-
temalacombinescommunity-based adaptationtoclimate
changeimpactswithavoidanceoffurtherclimatechange.
Treeplantinghelps preventerosion,producesfruittobe
eatenand marketedand improvessoilquality.Reforesta-
tionalsocounteractsdeforestation,itselfthecauseofCO2
emissions,aswellasbindingadditionalCO2whichwould
otherwisereinforcethegreenhouseeffect.
Currently,treeplantingbindsover200tper hectare.Ad-
ditionalbenetsofthissustainablelanduseareimprove-
mentsinagriculturalproductivity,acorrespondingreduc-
tioninmigrationtoseekpaidworkandincomefromselling
thewood. Efforts are beingmade to measureandcertify
theCO2savingsmoreeffectivelyandtomarketthem.
TheprojectexempliestheconceptofReducingEmissions
fromDeforestationandDegradation(REDD).Deforestation
anddamagetoforestscauseupto25%oftotalanthropo-
genicgreenhousegases.Protectingforeststoavoidthese
emissionsisacost-effectiveclimatechangestrategy(Stern
2006).Atpresentitisstillunclearhowforestpreservation
canbe rewardednancially.Possible alternatives are rec-
ognition of CO2 avoidance on the emissions certicates
marketsorvoluntarynancingthroughfunds.

 
IV.2 ADAPTING TO THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE
CHANGE
As the CARE projec t Mi Bosque (Box 2) shows, it is possible
tocombineefforts to avoid climate changewith adaptingto
itsimpacts.Foryears,thefocushasbeenonavoidance;more
recently,adaptationhasbeguntotakecentrestage.Thereare
severalreasonsforthis(Füssel/Klein2002):
 The effec ts of greenhouse gases already in the atmos-
phere willbe feltin the future;in otherwords, climate
changeisunavoidable.Theglobalpopulationmustadapt
toitinanycase.Equally,thepositiveeffectsofsuccessful
emissions avoidance strategies will not be felt for dec-
ades.
 Adaptationmeasuresat local,regionalornationallevel
can protec t the population  directly from the ef fects of
climatechange.Avoidancemeasuresaremore depend-
entoninternationalcooperation.
 Adaptation measures also protec t the population from
theeffects ofclimatic variations- short-term variations
which currently have damaging effects par ticularly on
thelivesofthepoor.
Avoidingemissionsisindisputablynecessary,butthiswillnot
besufcienttopreventnegativeimpactsofclimatechange.
The suggestions for combining poverty reduction and cli-
mateprotectiondescribedbelowfocusonadaptationatlo-
callevel,sustainedbythelocalcommunityandsupportedby
projectsandorganisationswhichtacklepoverty.
Adaptationtoclimatechangeisalreadyhappening,notjust
inorganisedform.Thismakesitessentialfororganizations
to take into account the ways in which people are already
adaptingtoenvironmentalchangesandlocalclimatechange
effects.The population may beforcedby their situation to
takeunsustainablemeasures.InToineke,somefamilieshave
increasedtheirsaltproductionby“saltboiling”.Thisusesup
alargeamountofwood,leadingtoover-useofthesurround-





 
ingforestwhich otherwiseprovideserosionprotectionand
asourceoffood.Thistypeofmaladaptationcanbeavoided
bysuitablesupport.Ontheotherhand,thelocalpopulation
usuallyknowtheirlocalenvironmentwell.Measurestosup-
port them in theiradaptation strategiesshouldbe compat-
iblewiththisknowledgeandcangainfromit.
IV.3 SUPPORTING RESILIENCE
People must be viewed as ac tive agents in connection with
climatechange, for the reasonsshownabove.Thisviewpoint
isthebasisofthelivelihoodconcept,whichiswidespreadin
developmentresearchandinorganizationswhichworktore-
ducepoverty.
It covers the strategies people use to ensure their surv ival
and full their needsbased on their capabilities and avail-
ableresources.Someofthesestrategiesinvolvemaintaining
accesstocertainresources,includingsocialcapital(e.g.inte-
gration in thecommunity),human capital(e.g.knowledge,
health),physicalcapital (housing)andnancial capital(sav-
ings).Themost importantfactor isnaturalcapital – fruitful
land,regularrainfallandotherecosystemservices.
Thelivelihoodsperspectiveincludesthewaypeople’sability
toactivelyensuretheirsurvivalisaffectedbychangestothe
availableresources.Italsocoversthreeotheraspectsofpov-
erty.Therstoftheseispeople’svulnerabilitytotheimpacts
ofclimatechangeasmentionedabove.Vulnerabilitymeans
theextent to which people’sopportunities tosustain their
livelihoodaredamagedbythese impacts.In this case, pov-
ertyreductionmeansovercomingthisvulnerability.
Thesecondaspectisresilience.Apopulation’svulnerability
dependson how itcan react whenclimatechange impacts
affectitsmeansoflivelihoodintheformofsporadicshocks




 
(e.g.astorm)orlong-termpressuressuchasdwindlingwater
resources.Resilienceincludesrst,solvingtheproblemand
second, adapting to the new conditions (Handmer/Dovers
1996).If people can onlyreact byabsorbing thechanges –
e.g.eatingevenlessifharvests fail – thiswill notdecrease
theirvulnerability.Inthelongterm,therefore,absorbingor
copingstrategiesarenotsustainable(Davies1993).Adapta-
tiontothechangedconditions,however,canreducevulner-
ability.Onthe other hand, reducing vulnerabilitycan open
upnewopportunitiesforapopulationtoadaptintheirown
waystothenewconditions(Kelly/Adger2000).Forexample,
ifwateraccessisensuredandstoragefacilitiesimprovedby
external suppor t, it mayb ecome possible to increase food
production, which ac ts as a buffer. So resilience draws on
availablelocalresources, but alsoonaccesstoexternal aid
(IISD2003:6).
Strengtheningresilienceiscentraltoanapproachtopoverty
reduction. Measures may be specically tailored to a par-
ticular threat: if climate change reduces rainfall, drought-
resistanttypesofgraincanbeprovidedforsmallholders. A
prerequisiteforthisisdeniteknowledgeofboththethreat
itselfandtheefcacyofthemeasuresagainstit. Thisisnot
thecaseifthenewlyintroducedgrainsaredroughtresistant,
but growing them is incompatible w ith the farmers’ other
activities.
However,strengtheningthepopulationgenerallywillcontin-
uetobeveryimportant.Becauseitissohardtopredictthe
consequencesofclimatechangeandhoweffectivestrength-
eningresilienceina particular aspectwillbe,itisessential
tomaintain people’sgeneral capacity toact and react.This
includestheir health as a prerequisiteaswell as incometo
enableaccesstoadditionalresourcesandsocialnetworksto
compensateforunforeseenvulnerability(IISD2003:7).
Finally, security must be mentioned. Poverty reduction as
practised by CARE and other organizations involves more
thansimplyensuring thatpeoplehaveadequate and effec-
tive access to resources which provide theirlivelihood and
fulltheirneeds.Itisalsonecessarytoensurethatthisaccess
isguaranteedforthelongterm.However,climatechangeim-
pactsunderminetheseefforts.Sothestrategiesandactivities
ofthepeoplethemselves,aswellasthoseaimedatpoverty
reduction, must beclimate secure:they muststillfunction
eveniftheeffectsofclimatechangearemoresevereordif-
ferentfromthoseanticipated.Theyshouldalsobenoregret
measures,usefulevenwithoutclimatechange.
IV.4 CRITERIA FOR SUCCESSFUL
ADAPTATION MEASURES
A2007paperanalysed130casestudiesofadaptationandde-
velopmentpolicyinreactiontoclimatechange.Themeasures
wereplacedonaspectrum(McGrayetal.2007:18,cf.Fig.5).
At one end are activities which concentrate on structural
causes of poverty and v ulnerability in general (left). At the
other end are those related toclimate change itself (right).
Inbetweenaremeasureswhichstrengthenpeople’scapacity
toreacttoclimatechangeimpactsandthosewhichintegrate
foreseeable climate risks into economic, polit ical and other
decision-makingprocesses.
Theaimof this arrangementisnotso much totmeasures
correctlyinto one category or another;the spectrumshows
variousaspectsandapproaches which ideally shouldbeim-
plementedtogether.Ifalltheseaspectsaretakenintoaccount
inasingle project,it may belessfocussed on particularas-
pects.However,thiscanbeanadvantageoverconcentrating
tooexclusivelyonasingleaspect.Aholisticapproachismore
effectivethan precision, since local climate change impacts
thepopulationindifferentwaysatthesametime.



 
Effectivenessisoneofseveralcriteriawhichadaptationmeas-
ures, in the sense of livelihood- oriented poverty reduc tion,
aimtofull.Asurveyevaluatingpreviousformsofadaptation
(IDS2008:27f.)proposesvecriteria,asfollows:
Thesecriteriaarenotonlyimportantattheplanning stage.
The local population’s own ways of adapting to climate
change impac ts, and the effe ct these have at a soc ial level
(e.g.increased energy requirementsduetoincreaseduseof
airconditioning),canbetestedagainstthem.Nationaladap-
tationpoliciesshouldalsotakethemintoaccount.


1 2 34
Providingwomen
withcrossbredgoatsand
instructioningraze-freefeed-
ing(KaramojaAgropastoral
DevelopmentProgramme)
Diversication
oflivelihoodstrategiesin
areasvulnerabletoooding
(SouthSouthNorth)
Vaccinationprogram
toeradicatediseasesinlow-
incomeareas(CubanMinistry
ofHealth)








Participatoryrefor-
estationinRiodeJaneiro’s
hillsidefavelastocombat
ood-inducedlandslides(City
ofRiodeJaneiro)
Reinstating
pastoralnetworkstofoster
appropriaterangelandman-
agementpracticesinarid
regions(NationalUniversityof
Mongolia)
Revivingtradi-
tionalenclosurestoencour-
agevegetationregeneration
andreducelanddegradation
(MinistryofNaturalResources
andTourism,Tanzania)
Monitoringsalini-
zationofdrinkingwaterand
drillingnewwellstoreplace
thosethatarenolongerus-
able(SouthSouthNorth)
Teachingfarmerstocol-
lectclimatedataandintegrate
itintotheirplantingdecisions
(GovernmentofMali/Swiss
Agenc yforDevelopmentand
Cooperation)
Usingnation-
allystandardizedriskassess-
mentprocedurestodevelopa
communityadaptionplanof
action(localgovernment)
Managingcoral
reefsinresponsetowide-
spreadcoralbleaching(WWF)
Reducingther iskof
glaciallakeoutburstoods
fromTshoRolpaLake(Govern-
mentofNepal)
 
   

 
IV.5 MEASURES
CARE differentiates between measures for (1) support, (2)
protectionand(3)livelihoodprovision,accordingtourgency.
The third type compr ises emergency aid designed to keep
peoplealiveinanacutesituation.
Longer-termadaptation to climate change involvesthe rst
twocategories.Thefollowingtableshowsthesedistinctions;
measurestoensurefood security havebeen supplemented
toincludegeneraladaptationtoclimatechange(CARE1998,
Cordetal.2008,IDS2008).


CRITERION DESCRIPTION
EFFECTIVE-
NESS
FLEXIBILITY
FAIRNESS
EFFICIENCY
SUSTAINA-
BILITY
Thepopulation’svulnerabilityisreallyreduced,theirresiliencestrengthened,theiraccesstoresources
secured.Effectivenessalsodependsonmeasuresbeingcompatiblewiththepopulation’scircumstances,
strategies and culture. Therefore it is essential that people participate in the development and
implementationofmeasures.Themeasuresshouldnotconictwitheachother.
Because thefuture isso unpredictable, measures shouldbe exible enough to havepositiveeffects
whateverclimatechangebrings(noregretmeasures).Theyshouldalsoinvolvelowlevelsofsunkcosts
(i.e.costswhichcannotberecovered).
Povertyreductionmeasuresaiddifferentgroupstovaryingextents;theyshouldnotreinforceexisting
inequalities–eventhoughitissometimeseasiertostrengthenlessvulnerablegroups.Povertyreduction
effortsshould be distributed fairlyanyway, for ethicalreasons – butalso forstrategic reasons,since
otherwisethemeasureswilllacksupportandlong-termeffectswillnotbeachieved.
Maladaptati on also occurs when the most cost-e ffective measures are not used and/or the costs of
adaptation are higherthan itsusefulness. However,itisdifcult to quantifyusefulness: how muchis
itworthtoenablepeopletomaintaintheirlivelihoods?Thisperspectiveisknownastheeconomicsof
adaptation.
Beforemeasuresareadopted,theirlong-termeffectsshouldbeconsidered:whethertheywillbestable
andare efcientinthelongterm.Sustainability also requiresthat measureshavenonegativeeffects
onlocalecosystems,socialcohesionetc.Themainfactoristhatmeasuresshouldbesormlyrootedin
people’severydaylivesthattheyaresustainedoncetheaidorganizationhaswithdrawnitssupport.

 

 
PROTECTION AND MAINTENANCE OF LIVELIHOODS SUPPORTING LIVELIHOODS
• General:protection/restorationofsecureaccessto
resourcesormeansofproduction.
• Basicraisingofawareness:whatishappeningdueto
climatechangeandhowdoesitaffectthepopulation?
Enablelocalstoparticipateandcombinetheir
knowledgeabouteffectswithexternalknowledge.
• Ensurethatdealingwithclimatechangebecomesthe
newnorm,sopeopleareawareofitandadapttheir
livelihoodstrategiesontheirowninitiative.
• Applyaidpaymentstoensurepeopledonotselltheir
meansofproductioninacrisis.
• Setupearlywarningsystemsandtrackclimate
change;makeriskprognosisandinformationabout
possibleimpactsavailable(radioetc.).
• Emergencyplanstoenablequick,effectivereactionto
unexpectedevents.
• Managementofremainingrisks,e.g.intheformof
microinsurancesagainstweatherevents.
• Materialinfrastructuretodefendagainstimmediate
effectsofclimatechange(e.g.dykes,building
regulations/technologies,irrigationsystems,water
reservoirsinaridareas).
• Improvementofsoil,forestandwatermanagement
e.g.tomaintainagriculture(e.g.treeplantingto
protectagainsterosion).
• Healthandothermeasurestoensurethatpeopleare
notsoweakenedbydiseaseorundernourishmentthat
theylosethecapacitytoactandreact.
• Institutionalizingand„automating“localprotective
measures:whoisresponsibleforwhat,ensuring
communicationbetweenthesepeopleandinstitutions
etc.
• Relatedtothis:traininglocalindividualsresponsible
fortheseparticularroles.
• Stabilizingharvestsbydiversifyingcropsandadapting
themtotheprojectedclimateconditions.
• Developingalternativeincome- generatingactivities,
esp.thoselessdependentonthenaturalenvironment
(e.g.notagricultural)orlesslikelytobeaffectedby
climatechange.
• Providingconditionsandincentivestoadoptthese
alternativestrategies.
• Ensuringaccesstonewtechnologies,graintypesand
otherinnovationsasprerequisitefornewpractices.
• Strengtheningstrategieswhichhaveprovedsustainable,
notmaladaptationse.g.seasonaljobmigration.
• Improvingstoragecapacitiesforreservesincaseof
failedharvests.
• Improvedmanagementofcommunityassetswhich
areaffectedbyclimatechangebutcannoteasilybe
protectedbyindividualowners.
• Educationtoimprovepeople’scapacitytoactandreact.
• Improvingaccesstopoliticaldecision-making,so
communityadaptationisdesignedtomeetactualneeds.
• Empowermente.g.ofwomentoenablethemtotake
morepartindecisionmaking.

 
V. Poverty reduction and strate-
gies to secure livelihoods: case
studies and lessons learned
AsTable2shows,theinstrumentsofthelivelihoodapproach
topovertyreductioncanbeappliedtopromoteadaptation
toclimatechangeimpacts.Itisnotnecessarytoinventnew
formsofpovertyreduction;however,existingstrategiesmust
bemadeclimatesecure.Ifthiscanbeachieved,theseinstru-
mentsareparticularlysuitable,becausetheystrengthenthe
self-preservationcapacityofpoorpopulations.Thiscapacity
isendangered by climate change, but is also an important
partofthesolution.Decentralized,community-basedadap-
tationcannotonlycoveractualneeds,butalsomakeuseof
localadaptationcapacities.
Wenow describesome cases of reactiontoclimatechange
impacts. People oftenreactontheir own initiative.Climate
variationsarenotanewphenomenontomostofthem,but
theunusualextentandspeedofcurrentclimatechangechal-
lengetheiradaptationcapacity.However,adaptationistak-
ingplace,sopovertyreductioneffortsmustsupportthisor,
ifnecessary,offeralternatives.Hereweshowinmoredetail
how these reactions and adaptations combat poverty and
whatcan be learnedfrom this. We relatethis tothe crite-
riamentionedabove–effectiveness, exibility,fairness, ef-
ciency andsustainability.The casestudy on thevillage of
ToinekeinWestTimor,Indonesia,wascarriedoutespecially
forthispaperbyZEFincooperationwithCARE.
V.1 SMALLHOLDER FARMERS IN TANZANIA: SPECIAL-
ISING AND REDUCING DEPENDENCE ON AGRICULTURE
The livelihood approach to poverty reduction emphasises
diversicationofeconomicactivities(Ellis1998).Thisreduc-
esthepopulation’svulnerability,inthattheycanfallbackon
otherincomesources.
Thedisadvantageisthattheymustmaintainbothactivities
simultaneouslyandso can investlesseffortineach.Some-
times it seems more advantageous to specialise. This was
observedamongsmallholderfarmersinKenyaandTanzania
(Eriksen/Brown/Kelly2005).
CARE carried out a country-wide study of climate change
impacts and adaptat ion in Tanzania (Ehrhar t/Twena 200 6).
Tanzaniais the l argest, most densely populated country in
EastAfrica,but also the poorest. Theprimary threat is the
anticipated increase in frequency and severity of extreme
weatherevents.About80%ofthepopulationisdependent
onrain-fedsubsistenceagriculturewhichissusceptibletocli-
matevariations.Undernourishmentiswidespreadand food
aidisoftennecessary.
The study investigated smallholder farmers in the Saweni
district in northeast Tanzania,to see howthey coped with
droughtand maintainedfoodsecurity(Eriksen/Brown/Kelly
2005).Harvestsinthisareaoftenfailduetodrought.Water,
grazingland andrewood are inshort supply.Smallholder
farmerscultivateafairlywiderangeofcrops,themostpopu-
larbeingmaize.Animalhusbandryhasdiminisheddrastically
in recent decades. Impor ts of additional produce from the
surroundingareahavebeenincreasingsincethelate1970s.
Non-agricultural income is becoming more important, al-
though most households continue to practise agriculture.
Youngpeopleseekpaidwork;youngmenoftenmigrate.
Inthepast,fruitandtubersweregatheredandanimalsand
poultrysoldduringperiodsofdrought.Othercopingmecha-



 
nisms included occasional work, family support and emer-
gencyaid.Thelocalpeopledifferentiatebetweenmainand
secondary strategies.The formerare regular activities pro-
ducingareliableincome overlongerperiods;these replace
agriculture. Small businesses (e.g. shops) or crafts such as
carpetweavingarecommonstrategies.Secondarystrategies
entail using individual opportunities, e.g.making and sell-
ingrope,whenthemainstrategy isnot possible.Themain
strategiesareintensive,specialisedandbringacashincome.
Moneyhasbecomeimportant,aboveallforpurchasingad-
ditionalfoodandhealthservices.
Theauthorsidentiedincreasingmonetarizationanddwin-
dlingsignicanceoflocalproduceasreasonswhylocalpeo-
plespecialiseinafewactivitiestocopewithdroughts.This
includesthepossibilitythatseveralpeopleinonehousehold
– not the whole household – concentrate on one activity.
Although agriculture is still the preferred activity, people
continue to practise the specialised, cash- oriented activit y
sotheydonotlosetouchwithitandcancontinueitduring
phasesofdrought(Eriksen/Brown/Kelly2005).
Thisresponsetoclimatechange impactshasbeen initiated
bythelocalpopulation.Accesstopreferredmethodsofgain-
ingaspecialised,cash-bringinglivelihoodisunequal;e.g.it
iseasierforthebetterqualied.Thisformofcopingiseffec-
tive because the popul ation is more dependent on money
anywaythanin thepast.Money mayalsomakethemmore
exible,becauseitcanbeusedforavarietyofpurposes,un-
likeagriculturalproduce.
However,coping isnot thesame asadaptation.Constantly
copingwithenvironmentalstressandpressureonlivelihood
activitiesisnotsustainableanddoesnotreducethepopula-
tion’sstructuralvulnerability.Itmaybethatthecopingstrat-
egiesfordroughtobservedinTanzaniaarenot“maladapta-
tions”.Howeverbecauseoflowgrowth,localjobmarketscan
                                         




 
onlyabsorbalimitedamount of non-agricultural activities.
Thegreaterthenumberofpeopleconcentratingonthiscop-
ing strategy, the less effective it is, because the potential
income declines. People who spec ialise in non-agr icultural
activ ity also lose the food secur ity which subsistence agri-
culturecanprovide despiteclimatechangeimpacts. Acash
income may fail or lose its purchasing power, for example
whenglobal food prices rise.The strategyofgaining inde-
pendencefromagricultureandnaturalresourcesinresponse
toclimatechangeisrisky;othereconomicsectorswillalsobe
affectedbyclimatechange,sothepopulation’svulnerability
mayonlybepostponed,notreduced.
V.2 MICROINSURANCE IN INDIA:
THE POOR PROTECT THEMSELVES AGAINST RISKS
Micronancialserviceshavebeenusedformanyyears now
tosupportpeopleinbreakingoutofthepovertytrap.Micro-
loans,forexample,enablethebeneciariestosetupsmall
businesses.
Recently, microinsurance has also been initiated, to insure
peoplewhohavefewpossessionsandcanonlyaffordsmall
premiums. This provides a form of livelihood protection:
if sudden or long-term events - storms, drought – destroy
meansofproduction,thethreatenedincomecanbesecured
byinsurancepayments.
Insurances,especiallyindex-basedinsurances,alsohavethe
advantagethat they rewardrisk provision.Payment is trig-
geredbyaphysicalfactor,e.g.acertainlevelofrainfall,not
bytheactualdamageafarmersuffers.Hecanreducetherisk
bycultivatingmorerobustcrops(Arnold2008).Inthisway,
theinsurance isalso an incentiveto make one’slivelihood
climatesecure.
Riskreductiongivesthepoorscopetoadapttoclimatechange
impacts (Lemos/Tompkins 2008). Because microinsurance
secures existing livelihoods and encourage improvements,
theyare a good instrumenttoprotect peoplefromslipping
(back)intoorenablethemtoriseoutofpoverty.Thepoor,
however,often cannot affordthisinsurance(Reiner 2008).
Onlyasmallnumbers of insurances reach the poor(Arnold
2008,Pierro/Desai2008).Thiscouldbecounteredbyassist-
ance in paying premiums – this could be taken on by the
BOX 3: MICROINSURANCES AND
WEATHER-RELATED DISASTERS:
CARE INDIA AND BAJAJ ALLIANCE
CAREIndiaandtheIndianinsurancecompanyBajajAlliance
together provide microinsurance for about 92,000 peo-
pleinthe coastalregionsofthe Indianstate TamilNadu.
AccordingtoRNMohanty,headofCAREIndiaMicroinsur-
ance,themainchallengetheconceptentailsisconvincing
peopletoincluderiskprovision in their livelihoodstrate-
giesandtodevelopacultureofmakingprovisionforthe
future:“Almost90%ofourcustomersarerst-timeinsur-
ancetakers.[…]The hardesttaskistoteachandtrain the
people.”
Tosucceed,thesystemmustgainpeople’strust,soitisof
primeimportancetoregulateclaimssatisfactorily.Thesys-
temwasputtothetestinNovember2008,whentropical
storm Nishahit theTamilNadu coast, making thousands
homeless. Project workers went at once to the affected
areastoassessthedamageandmakepaymentsasquickly
aspossible.Thatshowedpeoplehowusefulitwastoinvest
ininsurance,leadingtogrowinginterest.



 
countries primarily responsible for anthropogenic climate
change. To suit these users, insurance must be straightfor-
wardand easy to understand; it shouldalso bepossible to
payexiblepremiums,sinceotherwisepeoplewithirregular
incomeswouldsoondropoutofthesystem.
Insurancesare not theonlywayinwhichthepoorcandeal
withclimate change risks, such aslossescaused by natural
disasters. Financial and social capital (savings, knowledge
andtraining,familysupport)arealsoimportantcomponents
oflivelihoodresources.However,thesecanbeoverstretched
whenonedisasterfollowsanothertooquickly.Inthatcase,
peoplecanbeforcedtosellpossessions,takeoutloansand
sofallbackintopoverty(Arnold2008).Naturaldisastersalso
tend to affect all member s of a community,s o in order to
function,insurancesmustspreadtherisk;otherwise,thepre-
miumswillbecometooexpensiveortheinsurerwillnotbe
abletoaffordtomakepayment.
Climate change is also making it more difcult to sustain
thissystem.Potentialdamagefromextremeweatherevents
isbecoming morefrequentandextensive,sosomeinsurers
arewithdrawingfromthemarket.Thishasalreadybeenob-
servedincoastalareas.Thesystemwillonlybe worthwhile
inthelongterm,onascalelargeenoughtospreadtherisk.
Reinsurance must also be built up and investments in im-
provedinfrastructure are necessary, to reduce the demand
forinsurance.
Finally,newtypesofinsurancetailoredtolocalneedsarebe-
ingtested,tolimitinsurers’costs.BajajAllianceIndia’shealth
insuranceisoneexample.WorkingwithCARE,acooperative
system has been developed in which the local community
itself administers the insurance, retaining 67 % of the pre-
miums.Thisissufcienttocovermostclaims.BajajAlliance
onlytakesoverwhenacaseexceedsthecommunity’scapac-
ity.Afterayear,it appearsthat80 to90 %ofcasescanbe
coveredinthecommunity(Alliance2009).


                                         

 

 
VI. Case study West Timor,
Indonesia
The following example of the village of Toineke in West
Timor,Indonesia,showsclearlyhowclimatechangeimpacts
people’ssurvivalstrategiesandhowtheydealwiththesitu-
ation–moreorlesssuccessfully.

VI.1 IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN
(EAST) INDONESIA

Inpart1,wereferredtotheuncertaintyofmakingconcretepre-
dictionsabouttheeffectsofclimatechangeonlocalweather
conditions.However,regionalprojectionsdoexist(IPCC2007a:
ch.11,2007b:ch.9-16;WBGU2007:ch.7).
Warmingin SoutheastAsia will beat 2.5°C, similar to the
globalaverage.Rainfallwillincreasebyabout7%,butwith
concentrationsinparticularregions(Boer,Faqih2004).Indo-
nesiawill probably be badlyaffected by risingsealevels:a
riseofonemetrewouldleadtothelossof2,000islandsand
400,000 hectares ofland (IPCC2007b:485).Local develop-
mentscouldbeverydifferentfromtheseregionaltrends,due
tothe complex geographyof theregion;temperaturesmay
risemuchmoreininlandareas.EastIndonesiainparticular
isaffected by the El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO)phe-
nomenon,wherereducedrainfallleadstolongerdryseasons
and droughts. This happened, for example, in 1982/1983,
1991, 1994 and 1997/1998 (Hulme/Sheard 1999). Where
rainfallincreases, thetrendtosudden,heavyrainfallisalso
strengthened,resultinginerosionandooding(IPCC2007a:
886).Littleisknownabout the development of the tropical
stormswhichoccurespeciallyinEastIndonesia,buttheyare
expectedtoincreaseinintensity(byabout10–20%ifthe
seasurfacetemperaturerisesbetween2to4°C,IPCC2007b:
479),whiletheirfrequencymayactuallydecrease.Indonesia,
thethirdlargestglobalemitterofgreenhousegases,isusu-
allyperceivedasdamagingtheclimate(Weck2007,J.Müller
2008).ThiscasestudyshowsthatinIndonesia,asintherest
oftheworld,itisthepoorwhousuallyprotleastfromthe
overexploitationofthenatural environmentbutwhosuffer
mostfromitseffects.
VI.2 TOINEKE, WEST TIMOR: ECONOMY AND SOCIETY
ToinekeisavillagelocatedatthemouthofRiverNoemukein
theIndianOcean.Itcomprises680households(approx.3,000
inhabitants),twoprimaryschools,vechurchesandfourlocal
healthcentres.

GENERAL DATA ON WEST TIMOR, INDONESIA
NusaTenggaraTimur
Kupang
Timor
14,394.90km²
1.7m.
AtoinMeto,Tetum,Bunak,Kemak
Indonesian,UabMeto,Helong,Rotinese,
Tetum
55%Catholic,34%Protestant,8%Muslim;
ancestorworshipandbeliefinspiritsarewidespread
Agriculture(40%GNP;68,5%of
workingpop.),trade(15,9%;6,5%),construction(7%;
2,4%),transportandcommunications(6,2%;4%),
manufacturingindustry(1,7%,8,2%),mining(1,3%;
0,8%),electricity,gas(0,4%;0,1%)



Westmonsoon/rainyseason(Nov.oApril),
eastmonsoon/Dryseason(MaytoOct).

 
The population has lived from subsistence farming for
generations, making them very dependent on the natural
environment. They also have vegetables gardens and
orchards,keepanimals,trade on a smallscaleandpractise
home industries. Very few families sh in the nearby sea.
Apart from agricultural and animal produce, goods are
manufactured for sale, including woven goods, palm leaf
containers,artsandcrafts,coconutoilandsweets.Carpentry
products and construction material from the putak palm,
rewood, coconut seedlings, betel nuts and cigarettes are
alsotraded.Afewfamiliesusetheelectricitysupplyavailable
atnight toproduceicecream.Otherssellsalt,producedby
boiling sea water for hours. This method of “boiling salt”
entailschoppingdownlargenumbersoftreesforrewood.
Originally thesoil wasvery fertile,attracting acontinually
increasingpopulation sincethe 1960s. In 1960, there were
78householdsinthevillage;within10years,thegurehad
risen to 180. As a result,Toineke’spopulation is amixture
ofethnicgroupsfromdifferentplaces.Thegreatmajorityof
thevillagers live in smallone tothreeroom houses,made
ofwood (frame and roof timbers),dried putakpalm twigs
(walls) and palm stalks (roong). The oor is usually of
tampedearth.Cookingtakesplaceonthreestonesinthere
ontheoor.Moremodernwooden,stoneorconcretehouses
aretheexception.

VI.3 PERCEPTIBLE LOCAL IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE
Untilthe1980s,the WestTimorese climate was typiedbya
relativelyreliable divisionintoa dryseason from May toOc-
toberandarainyseasonfromNovembertoApril.Thestartof
therainyseasonwasmarkedbyseveraldaysofconstantrain.
Farmersstartedplanting aftertwoorthreedays of continual
rain.
However,sincetheearly1990s,Toineke’spopulationhasob-
served massive local alteratio nsin th e climate. Since then,
thedryseasonhasbeengetting longer and the villagesuf-
feredseveralprolongeddroughts,lastingthewholeyear(in
1992,1994,1995,1997,1998,2006,2007and2008).Fourof
thesevenvillagewellsdriedoutbetween1992and1995,so
fetchingwater involved farmore effort. The extratime re-
quiredhadnegativeeffectsonhomeindustries,watershort-
ages reduced harvests in vegetable and fruit gardens and
damaged the health of people and animals. Field har vests
werealsobadlyaffected.Peoplesoldtheirsmalleranimals,
oodingthemarketandresultinginfallingprices.Thesitu-
ationforagriculturerecoveredsomewhatbetween1997and
2006, w ith a pattern of two years of extended dry season
followedbyayearwithagoodrainyseason.
Onthe eveningof16May2000,a rapidlyrisingoodinun-
datedthevillage.Thehousesatgroundlevelwerestanding
inwatercontainingloamandsomesaltysedimentsforupto
two months. The ooddestroyed elds,vegetable gardens




 
and home industries, damaged houses and washed away
possessions; many animals drowned. The standing water
broughtmosquitoesanddiseases,inparticular malariaand
diarrhoealdiseases,butalsodenguefever.Inpartsofthevil-
lage,wellsandsoilwerecontaminatedwithsalt.
Thevillagehadpreviouslyonlyexperiencedoodingin1972
and1990;villagersstatedthattheearlieroodswerenothing
incomparisonwiththatof2000.Sincethen,thevillagehas
beeninundatedseveraltimeseveryyearbetweenDecember
andMay,thoughnotonthescaleofthe2000ood.Thewa-
terandsedimentremainforuptothreeweeksinsomeparts
ofthevillage.Thevillagersdifferentiatebetweenwaterand
sedimentfromthemountain and from the riverintheiref-
fectsfor agriculture.Mountainwaterisconsideredpositive
andfruitful,whereasriverwaterismixedwithseawaterand
damagesagriculture.
Comparedtothe dryperiodsinthe1990s,therainyseason
hasbeenmorereliablesince2000.However,theprecisetim-
ing and duration are not reliable. In some years, the rain


CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE TON
Since2000,thefamilyhasgotusedtotheoodsbutdoes
notat temptanypreventivemeasuresorp ursueanylonger-
termadaptivestrategy.Instead,IbuYanseleavesherhouse
whenthewaterrisesandstayswithrelativeswholiveon
higherground.Whenthewaterlevelfallsandherhouseis
nolongerooded,shereturnsandgetsridofthesediment
andanywaterleft.IbuYanseexplainsthiswiththelackof
nancial andhumancapital.“It’salreadyhardenoughto
get food eachday. How could we plan tobuilda secure
houseaswell?”Sheusedtokeepsmallanimals(particu-
larly chickens).“Now the oods makeit moredifcult to
earnalittlemoremoney.”Whenthewaterandsediment
destroytheharvestyetagain,shegatherswildcassavaand
tamarindseedsintheforestasfoodsubstitutes.However,
thatisalsobecomingmoredifcult.Thereislessandless
wildcassavaintheforest,shereports.
Ibu Yanse Ton (age unknown, 2 years primary school,
widowed,4adultchildren)liveswithherson,hiswifeand
twochildreninabadlydamagedhousebuildoflocalma-
terialsatgroundlevel,intheregularlyoodedpartofthe
village. In2000, the ood washedaway all their posses-
sions,theiranimalsweredrownedandpartsofthehouse
collapsed . Her family fell ill wi th malaria and diarr hoea,
necessitatingaweekinhospital.
     
     

 
startsinOctoberbutthenstops.PakMartinusTaneosays,“In
thepast,whenthe rainy season started,it didn’t stop rain-
ing.Nowitrains,weplantoureldsandthentherainstops,
sometimesuntilJanuary orFebruary”.Thesubsequentheat
kills the newly sown plant s, so that when the rains return
inDecember or January,newseedshaveto be boughtand
planted.TheBircheffect,theincreasedrelease of nutrients
toplantsaftertherstrain,whichisresponsiblefor30%of
theharvest,islost(Wood1995:76).Inotheryears,therain
doesnotstartuntilthesecondweekinDecemberorinJanu-
ary and thencontinues untilMay.Since2005, thevillagers
haveobservedthattherainyseasonisgettinglongeragain,
sometimeslastingfromOctobertoMay.However,duringthis
periodtherainfallsinshort,abruptphases,followedbydays
withoutrain.Thisisoftencombinedwithooding.Inthelast
threeyears,incontrast,thedryseasonswereextremelylong
andhot, like the droughtsin the 1990s.However,it rained
occasionally,whichisunusualforthedryseason.

 


  

 
VI.4 COPING AND ADAPTATION STRATEGIES
The increasing irregularity of the weather endangers agri-
cultureand solivelihoodsecurity.However,thelocalsdonot
seethesealterationsinthe context ofglobalclimatechange.
Theyperceivethemasconcrete changes inthelocalenviron-
mentandweatheranddiscussthem in these terms.Twofre-
quently heard sentences are, “alam sudah berubah” (nature
haschanged)and“musimsudahberubah”(theseasonshave
changed).Some villagers also see the changes as God’sway
ofchallengingthem to ndwaystolivein future withthese
changes.
Sofarthevillagershaveundertakenavarietyofcollectiveef-
fortstostemtheooding,butwithverylittlesuccess.There
is no long-term adaptation strategy for the whole vill age,
thoughpossibilitiesarebeingdiscussedwiththesupportof
thirdparties.
At an individual level, a number of successful short-term
copingstrategieshavebeendeveloped,measurestopredict
changes in the weather and some longer-term adaptation
strategies.Amongtheshort-termmeasures,thepopulation
falls back on tradit ional ways of securing food in times of
hunger. However, because this has been more frequently
necessaryinrecentyears,theresourcesusedforthisstrategy
arebeingoverstretched.
Preventive measures to avert the
impacts of climate change
The villagers haveattempted toundertakesome measures
to inuence their surroundings and the vill age location so
thattheyarelessaffectedbycurrentclimatechangeimpacts
–suchastoprotectthe villagefromooding.Forexample,
inJuly2000thevillageelders attempted toarrangeforthe
villagetoberelocated.However,thisfailedbecauseitwould
havebeennecessarytonegotiatewiththeministryforagri-
CASE STUDY: PAK AUGUSTINUS LEBISA UND
IBU NAEMA BANOET
Pak Augustinus Lebisa and
Ibu Naema Banoet (age
unknown,married,no chil-
dren) live in a small, one-
roomedhousemadeoflocal
materials, furnished with
a wooden bench, wooden
bed andopen cooking re.
Theystoremaizeunderthe
roof in the traditional way.
They originally come from
Kollbana and Nununamat, but set up home in Toineke.
Unfortunatelytheyhadnochildren.Today,IbuNaema(no
schooling)has been blind for two years andPakAugusti-
nus(threeyearsprimaryschool)ishardofhearing.Distant
relativescultivate theirone hectare of landon the hillin
exchangefor 20 kilogrammesofmaizeayear.Thisisnot
enoughtoliveon,butPakAugustinusandIbuNaemacan
nolongercultivatethelandthemselves.Instead,theykeep
animals.Theirvecowsdrownedin2000.Nowadaysthey
keepapigandtwohens.
Ibu Naemasays: “When we wereyoung, we grew maize
anditourished.Nowadaysit’stoohotanddry,followed
by oods.” When Pak Augustinus senses that the rains
arecoming, he buildsa stable onstilts. Heand his wife,
however,waituntilthewatercomesandthenclimbonto
their roof. The sediment the water brings is often over
theirknees,soIbuNaemacooksontherooffordays.They
wouldliketobuildahouseonstilts,buttheyhaveneither
thematerialsnorthestrength.
PakAugustinusandIbuNaemahavenoaccesstostatesys-
temsofsocialsecurity,nordotheyhavefamilytoprovide
forthem.Theiropportunitiesofadjustingtothechanged
conditionsareminimal.PakAugustinusexplains,“Weare
old.Wehavenomoney.Wearewaitingtodie.“
     

 
cultureandforestry in Jakarta, which is responsibleforthe
land they hoped touse. Thecurrent village head explains:
“Forone thing, wehaven’tenoughmoney toytoJakarta
andfor another,we are littlepeople without much educa-
tion. We can’t meet with rich, intelligent people.“ In the
sameyear,thedistrictgovernmentbegantodredgetheriver
annually.Howeverthesedimentllsuptheriverbedagain,
sothisdoesnotpreventooding.
In2004,thevillagebuilta5,600metrelongcanalabovethe
village,topreventthesediments and waterbroughtbythe
oodsfromreachingthevillage.Theyreceivedfundingfrom
anIndonesianNGOforthisproject.Theone-meterdeepbar-
rierwasbuiltbyhand–butoneoodwassufcienttollit
in.Thepresentvillageheadconsidersthatitwasbuiltinthe
wrongdirection,sothewatercollectedinitinsteadofow-
ingawaytowardstheriver.
In2006/2007,thevillagersplantedabout20,000treesatthe
foot of the mountain behind the vill age, where the forest
hadbeengraduallyclearedinthepreviousdecades.Thenext
dryperiodkilledhalfthetrees.Sincethen,thevillageelders
havenotplannedtoplantanymoretreesaboveToineke.
Short-term reactive coping strategies
Other measures were reactive, consisting of immediate,
short-term responses to acute dangers. M ost of the strate-
gies mentioned here are traditional coping measures for
periodsofshortages.Theyarerootedintraditionalpractices
andlocalknowledge.Tosomeextent,theyarethesameas
theeverydaylivelihoodstrategiesbut are used moreinten-
sivelywhenfoodisscarce:
If ooding occurs, climbing onto the roof or staying
withrelativeswhoarenotaffected;
 lookingforfoodintheforest(e.g.Putakpalmpith,tam-
arindseeds,wildcassava);
 sellinganimalstobuyfood–sacricinglong-termcapi-
talforshort-termsurvival;
 productionandsaleofcoconutoil,saltandpalmwine
(IrisTuak),kapok(plant-derivedmattresslling)andpe-
lepah(constructionmaterialfromtheputakpalm);
 shinginthesea
 searchingfortemporaryworkinsurroundingtowns(as
householdworkers,motorcycletaxidrivers,tofusellers
etc.);
 takingchildrenoutofschool;spendingtheschoolbook
moneyonfood;
 duringoods:notsendingchildrentoschoolforfearof
furtheroodwavesanddrowning.
Future oriented coping strategies
Future oriented coping strategies are implemented before
oodingordrought,tobepreparedforthesetimesofscarci-
ty.However,theyarealsochosenbecausetheyarerelatively
easyandcheaptocarryout.Thelocalsdonotknowwhether
orwhentheoodsordroughtsmayreturnandwhetherthe
newclimatewill stabilizeorchangefurther,sotheychoose
thecheaper provisionalmeasuresrather than themore ex-
pensiveadaptation.Relativelyshort-termreactivestrategies
arementionedaboveallinconnectionwithdrought,whereas
thelonger-termcopingstrategiesaremoreimportantwhen
facingtheoods:
 “WhenIseeblackclouds,Iputallourpossessionsupin
theroof: tax return,marriagecerticate,baptism and
conrmationcerticates,schoolreportsandclothes.”
 Elevatingthecookingandsleepingaccommodationand
theanimals’quarters;
 Keepingcleantominimizethedangerofcontagion;
 Laying in stocksofKayuular(snakewood,Lat.:Strych-
noslucida)for malariaoutbreaks (boiled inwater; the
liquidisdrunk);


 

 Stockinguponrewood,drinkingwaterinclosedcon-
tainers,waterforwashing,lamppetroleum;
 Plantingvegetablesinpartsofthegardenwhichdonot
becomeooded;
 Takinganimals(torelatives)tohigherground.
Long-term adaptation strategies
Long-termadaptationstrategies(asopposedtocopingstrat-
egies) for climate change impacts are more expensive, so
people’s ability to adopt these strategies depend on many
factors: income, social networks, access to other land, re-
quiredknowledge,aswellaspersonalreadinesstomakede-
cisionsandadoptinnovations.Tousethevocabularyofthe
vulnerabilityperspective(seeSectionIV.3),itdependsonthe
availablenancial,social,physicalandnaturalcapital.
ThemostcommonadaptationstrategyinToinekeistoadopt
differentcropsandplantingtimes.Insteadofthetraditional
maize,riceisincreasinglyoftensown.Maizeplantsgrowwell
intheoods, buttheharvest ispoor.Riceseed(paddy go-
rah),ontheotherhand,ourishedlastyear;asaresult,some
villagersareconsideringterracingandirrigationsystems.
Maizeisstill cultivatedon higherground. Green beansare
alsocentralto food security.Inthe last fewyear,thebeans
plantedintherainyseason either drowned in theoods or
weredestroyed by sediments orsalt water.Toprevent this
happening again, the vill agers are planting a fast-growing
beanvariety at thestartof and during therainy season in
areaslessaffectedbyooding.Theycanharvesttheseplants
beforetherstoods,soprotectingthemfromsediments.
Thewomendescribediversication of varieties in fruitand
vegetable production. Fruit varieties which grow on tall
plants or trees, such asbananas, coconutsand sugarcane,
arebecomingmoreimportant.Vegetablesdonotsurvivethe
oods, so they are only grown during the r ainyseason by
farmerswhoselandislocatedhigherup,andinthedrysea-
 


       

 
sonby those whohaveaccessto good water.Tospreadthe
riskinthedryseason,awiderrangeofdifferentvegetables
iscultivated.
Thevillagershavealsoextendedtherangeofitemsproduced
inhomeindustries,particularlyintheuseofproductsgained
fromresources not affected by theoods (e.g.coconut oil,
coconutseedlings,coconutlampshadesetc.).
Finally,some villagers have beguntoestablishasecondary
source of income as carpenters, motorcycle tax i drivers or
openingakiosk,inadditiontosubsistenceagriculture.This
showsthatsomeofthelocalpopulationalreadyperceivethe
impacts of climate changesoclearly that their dependence
on agriculture seems too r isky. Pract ising small scale trad-
ingandhome industriestogenerate income inaddition to



CASE STUDY: IBU YANSE LAK ABU
havehergardenterracedandtousethewaterowingpast
herhouseforricegrowing.
Inherview,thealterationsinthenaturalenvironmentare
go d - givenandit isthev il l agers’tasktor eactappro pr iatel y.
Terracing the village could make use of the god-given
oodwatertocultivaterice,whichisalsothegoaldened
byBupati.
IbuYanseseesitasessentialtoretainherabilitytoactin
thefaceofdroughtsandooding.Thepriorityistosecure
foodforpeopleandanimals.Knowledgeiscentral,inher
view.“Ihaveplentyofthingstosell,butifIdon’tknowthe
prices,I will be cheated by theJavanese or people from
Flores.”In her opinion, knowledge enables people to act
andndsolutions;sheseesthisasmuchmoreimportant
intheattempttoadaptsuccessfullyandtosurviveunder
the changed conditions than nancial resources (e.g. to
raisehousesonstilts)orpersonalnetworks(e.g.toaccess
landinhigherlocations).
IbuYanseLakabu(62),daugh-
ter of a Protestant pastor,
widowoftheformervillage
policeman, retired teacher
and mother of the current
villageschoolteacher,isone
of the better-educated and
better-offvillagers.Shelives
with her daughter and two
grandchildreninahouseon
“jalanair”,oneofthewater-
ways created by the an nual
oods. She plans to pay to
     
     

 
subsistence farming is not a new strategy, but the increas-
ingimportanceoftheseincomesourcesindicatestheoften
predictedexodusfromagriculturalproduction.Thistypically
beginswiththedevelopment ofalternative income sources
inruralareas(initiallyastrategytoavoidimmediatemigra-
tion)andendswiththelarge-scalemigrationofyoungpeo-
plefromruralareasintothelargecitiesoftheircountry.
In contrast to the situation described in Tanzania, the vil-
lagersinToinekeseemtoconcentratemoreon diversifying
crops,varyingplantingtimesandseekingalternativeincome
sourcesratherthanspecialisinginafew protablebutalso
risky income sources. Three other long-term adaptation
strategieswere observed:rst, moving house, animalsand
cultivatedland;second,raisingthehouseandthird,protect-
ingcultivated land byfencing. The prerequisiteformoving
house,animalsandcultivatedlandisaccesstohigherground
inthevillage.However,mostvillagersdonothaveaccessto
higherground forconstruction, so they concentrate onse-
curing higher land for cult ivation or ask owners to permit
themtocultivatetheirlandforthemandsharetheharvest.
Successinthesecasesdependsonsocialcapitalsuchasfam-
ilyrelationshipsandpersonalnetworks.Toraisethehouses,
localconstructionmaterials(woodenpillars)orhome-made
cementblocks are useddepending onincome.Fencing the
vegetable gardens is intended to protect the cultivated ar-
easfromoodwater,sedimentsandbranchescarriedbythe
oods.
As well as these positive adaptation measures, there are
some negative adapt ations or maladaptations (see Sec tion
IV.2). One example is salt boiling, as already mentioned,
whichrequireslargeamountsofrewood.PakNohHun(45)
describes howhisfamilycarriesout traditionalsubsistence
agricultureaswellassaltproduction.However,oodinghas
made agriculture so dif cult that they are increasingly de-
pending on salt production fortheir livelihood. The use of
the forest around the village for  rewood not only causes






 

     
     
     

 
additionalCO2emissions;thelocalecosystemisalsofurther
stressedandthevillagehaslesserosionprotection.Another
maladaptionwithseriousconsequencesistakingthechildren
out of school, in order to buy food w ith the money saved
fromthefees.Thisreduces the children’sabilitytofacethe
challengesofthefuture;knowledgeandinnovativethinking
areofcentralimportancewhendealingwiththeimpactsand
uncertaintiescausedbyclimatechange.
CASE STUDY: PAK YANDRI A. NENO
UND IBU ANTONIA MISA
ometerstohigherground.HecalledhisnewdaughterAiti
Mena,whichinUabMetomeans,“whowillcarryher?”The
ooddestroyedtheirhouse andtheircow,calf,hensand
goats were drownedor died later from the after-effects.
Pak Yandri turn ed to the village chi ef to ask permission
tobuildanewhouseabovethevillageonlandwhichhad
oncebe-longed tohisfather.Todayhehasaquarterhec-
tareofvegetablegardenaroundhisnewhouse,ahectare
on thehill for maize and a quarterhectare near the old
house.Heplanstoplantriceonthelower-lyinglandnext
rainyseason.Hissocialcapitalintheformofconnections
andfamilypossessionshasenabledhimtosecurealong-
termincomeforhisfamily.
It is a recurr ing problem for Pak Yandr i to nd the cash
forschoolfees.Forsomereason,hereceivesnothingfrom
thestatefund (KeluargaHarapanprogramme)set upfor
such situations (114 of the 680 households receive Rp.
200,000.00 per childper quarter). SoPak Yandri andIbu
Miasellcassavarootsandleavesattheweeklymarketand
PakYandrialsoworksintheeldsandasacarpenter.The
move away from the village centre makes the job hunt
moredifcult.Hehastovisitpossibleemployersregularly,
whereaspreviouslyhesawthemeverydayanyway.

P a k Ya n d r i A . N e n o (4 7, c o m -
pleted grammar school),
Ibu Antonia Misa (43) and
their four children were
caught by surprise in their
house by the ood on the
evening of 16 May 2000,
threedaysafterthebirthof
theirfourthchild.Withina
fewminutes,thewaterrose
chest high. Pak Yandri lift-
edhiswifeandthebabyto
safetyonatwo-meterhigh
roof beam. Next morning
he carried them three kil-




     
     

 
VI.5 TOINEKE: AN EXAMPLE OF LIFE IN POVERTY IN
CONDITIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The people of Toineke are currently living under constantly
changing climatic conditions which have direct, immediate
conseqencesforagriculture,thebasisoftheirexistence.Their
methodsofdealing withthesituationexemplifymanyofthe
linksmentionedbetweenpovertyandclimatechange.
Likesubsistencefarmersinmanyothercountries,thefarmers
of Toineke aree xtremely dependent on their natural envi-
ronment.Climatechange signiesdirectdamagecausedby
droughtandoodingaswellasincreasingclimaticuncertain-
ty.Theyarebecomingevermorevulnerable,bothbecauseit
isnotclearhowtheyshouldbestreactandalsobecausethey
simplylackthemoney.Theyonlyachievepartialsuccesses:
smallinnovations(suchastheprotectivefencesaroundtheir
elds),lesseningtherisksbyplantingmoreordifferentcrops
etc.
Variousformsofknowledge arecrucialtoenablepeopleto
maintaintheircapacitytoactandcope withtheuncertain-
tiescausedbyclimatechange.Localknowledgeoftraditional
strategiestobeusedintimesofscarcityareimportant(e.g.
using the putak palm for food). Local innovati ons (such as
protective fencing around the gardens, raising houses on
stilts) and external knowledge (e.g. new varie ties of seed)
arealsosignicant.Inaddition,thepopulationrequiresthe
basicunderstandingorawarenessthatchangesintheirliving
conditionsaremore extensiveandlonger-lastingthanthey
have ever experienced. Lack of knowledge about climate
changeasa global process delaysthe developmentof local
adaptation strategies and makes it more dif cult, because
thelocalsconcentratetheirfewresourcesonshort-termpro-
visionalcopingstrategies.
These various forms of knowledge are combined in daily
dealingswithimpacts of climate change  withmoreorless
success,workingtogethertoenablepeopletodevelopcop-
ingandadaptationstrategies.In this way,local knowledge
adjuststothedemandsofclimatechangeimpacts.Thekey
factorishowexibleandinnovativepeopleareinthinking
abouttheirsituation.Thecasestudiespresentedshowclearly
thatsuccessiscloselyrelatedtothedegreeofformaleduca-
tionreceived;themajorityofthosewhohavedevelopednew
strategiesandtechniqueshadbeentosecondaryschool.This
meansthatpovertyreductioneffortsshouldmakeeducation
availabletoenablepeopletoimplementtheknowledgethey
alreadyhave,newideasandtheircapacitytochange.
People’s ability to react to climate change also depend on
howprosperoustheyalreadyare.Inthisway,climatechange
deepens the gulfbetweenthe poor and thebetter-off and
leadsto new inequalities, both withinvillage communities
andbetweenvillages,regionsandcountries.Thebetter-off
familieswereoftenabletoutilizetheircapital–social,nan-
cial (see section IV.3)–to counter thechanging conditions
successfullyandinsomecases,eventousethempositively.
Others, such asIbu Yanse Ton and PakAugustinus andIbu
Naema,loseeventhelittlelivelihoodbasetheyhad.Insuch
cases, climate changeimpactsresult in a huge overload of
people’slivelihoodstrategiesandcopingcapacity.



 
Thefollowingrecommendationsareprimarilyrelatedtothe
workoforganizationssuchasCAREinternational.Although
theyweremainlyimplementedaslocalmeasuresandprojects
carriedoutdirectlyincooperationwithpoorerpopulations,
variousconclusionscanbedrawnfromthemforthenational
orinternationallevel.
Community-basedadaptation.Povertyreductionshould
encourageadaptationtonewlivingandeconomiccondi-
tions.Thisshouldtakeplaceatlocallevelandwithlocal
participation, and, aboveall,shouldbe basedonexist-
inglocalcopingandadaptationstrategies.Thesemay(or
maynot)begoodstartingpointsforlocalmeasuresand
“homegrown”bestpracticesforotherorganizationsand
projects.
 Supportinglocalknowledge.Detailedlocalknowledge
ofecosystems andalternative options shouldbe gath-
eredandupdated.Itisimportanttogainnewknowledge
aboutadaptation optionsonthe spot. It isalsoimpor-
tanttocreateawarenessthatcurrentweathervariations
arepartofaglobalprocesswhichissettocontinue.Vil-
lage communitieslike Toineke must be encouraged to
test the ir knowledge to  see how far it w ill help the m
to deal with climate change impacts. The experience
of other regions with ooding or drought should be
shared. “Global”knowledge, e.g.ndingsfromclimate
research,must be madeavailable, soit can berelated
tolocal knowledge. Theremust be a continuous proc-
ess of updating local climate managementknowledge,
becausetheclimate isnotlikelytostabilizeinthenear
future.
 Criticalanalysisofexistingpractices.Existingcopingand
adaptation mechanisms may have become widespread
and may be assumed to be in the interests of at least
somegroups.However,theyshouldbeexaminedinthe
contextofthevecriteriamentionedabove–effective-
ness, exibility, fairness, ef ciency and sustainability –
particularly in relation tothe poorest.For example, an
adaptationmechanismmaybesuccessfulandalso“home
grown”.However,itmayatthesametimeexacerbatein-
equalityandsoincreaseabsolutepoverty.Itmaybewell
established,butpossiblybymorepowerfulgroupsandto
thedisadvantageofwomenormarginalsocialgroups.
 Raisingawarenessforclimatechangeimpactswhichare
notyetacute.Finally,adaptationprocessesshouldbeena-
bled,evenwheretheydonotappearurgent.Itisessential
toraiseawarenessofthefactthatclimatechangeisnot
alwaysdramatic;itcanalsotakeplacegradually.People
arealreadyawareofsomeclimatechangeimpacts.Oth-
ersarenotyetknownordealingwiththemispostponed
infavourofothertaskswhichseemmoreurgent.
 Recognizinguncertainties.Projectionsofclimatechange
processesand impactsgive theimpressionthat poverty
reduction can be based on concrete weather develop-
ments. However this cannot be taken for granted, be-
causethemodelsareuncertainandtheclimatechange

VII. Recommendations:
poverty reduction in times of climate change

 
process depe nds on humanity’s futur e actions. Mak ing
poverty reduction measures climate secure does not
meanbasingthemononeprojection.First,itisnotclear
howpeoplewillreacttothemeasuresandwhetherthey
willbeeffective,eveniftheclimatepredictionsareful-
lled. Second,the climatemight developinunforeseen
ways. Poverty reduction strategies are climate secure
onlyiftheyhavepositiveeffectsinvariousscenarios(no
regretcriterion).
 Carefulhandlinginthefaceoftheurgencyofadaptation
to climate change imp acts. The pressur e to implement
adaptationmeasuresis enormous:however,thisshould
notleadtoimposingstrategiesonthelocalpopulation,
ignoring their local knowledge and existing adaptation
practices.Nor shoulditleadto hastyxingonparticular
scenariosasabasisforquickandapparentlysuitablemeas-
ures.Thisdoesnotmeanunderestimatingtheurgencyof
climate change; on the contrary, it means guaranteeing
thatmeasuresarereallyeffectiveandsustainable.
 Poverty reductionmeansmaintainingbasiccapacityfor
action.Inordertoberealisticandtoconcentrateefforts,
povertyreductionshouldconcentrateonthepoorestand
onmaintainingtheirbasiccapabilityofaction.Thepopu-
lation’sresilienceshouldbestrengthenedgenerally,not
just in relat ion to specic r isks. It is likely that climate
change will cause even morerapidreactions in future,
soitisimportanttofocusontheshort-sightedmaladap-
tations. Governments must al so maintain room to ma-
noeuvre,tocopewithclimatechangeandpoverty.The
economiceffectsofclimatechangemustnotbeallowed
tocausefurtherreductionsinstatefundingforpoverty
reduction.Development aid canbe a temporarysource
ofassistanceduringtheglobaleconomicdownturnand
nancialcrisis.
 Broad-based, in-depth analysis of climate change im-
pacts and measures. As the c ase studies show,climate
changeimpactsandadaptationmechanisms oftenhave
unexpectedconsequences.Someapparentlyappropriate
suggestions such as diversifying income sources have
turnedouttobecounter-productive.Organizationstack-
lingpovertyshouldinvestsufcientlyinresearchtoesti-
matethecomplexconsequences.Theyshouldtakeeven
more careful accountof particular local conditions and
thewaysin which ecosystemsandsocialsystems inter-
act.Holisticanalysisis essential to cover alltheinterac-
tionsasfully,evenifnotasprecisely,aspossible.






 
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Impact Assessment. www.acia.uaf.edu/PDFs/ACIA_Science_
Chapters_Final/ACIA_Ch18_Final.pdf
  World Meteorological Organization: Summary
StatementonTropicalCyclonesandClimateChange,www.wmo.int/
pages/prog/arep/press_releases/2006/pdf/iwtc_summary.pdf
 EnvironmentalSoilBiology,Glasgow:Blackie
Academic&Professional.

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