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Remote Sensing and GIS as Counterterrorism Tools in the Afghanistan War: Reality, Plus the Results of Media Hyperbole
... Regarding the application of GIS in the terrorism research, see Yildirim andÖcal (2013),Bennell and Corey (2007),), Sui (2008,Shroder (2005), andFindley and Young (2012).Content courtesy of Springer Nature, terms of use apply. Rights reserved. ...
Suicide attacks have been widely used by many terrorist groups since the 1980s. It cannot be ignored that Al-Qaeda has played a role in diffusing this tactic, in particular among groups that have links with Al-Qaeda. However, the decision to adopt an innovative tactic is not without risk. Its implementation may inspire potential supporters, but may also cause a backlash from government and alienation from those whose support the group may be seeking. Thus, in their decision-making, it is crucial that terrorist groups learn the repercussions of their decision to adopt such tactics. In so doing, examination of the success or otherwise of other groups that adopt an innovation and its results can provide evidence for the predictability of their decision. This research argues that terrorist groups tend to learn and be influenced more by nearby groups due to the similarity of their environment of operation. The estimation is conducted through the logit model with the original terrorist group location dataset and the findings indicate that the influence of an Al-Qaeda link in adopting the tactics of suicide attack is larger when they are geographically close.
... The applications of geographically oriented modeling, in the domain of terrorism, is a relatively recent trend, and the work of spatial and temporal analysis of terrorist attacks is becoming increasingly important in the literature. Several studies have employed spatial and temporal analysis to terrorism events in Afghanistan (Open Source Center [OSC] 2009;Shroder 2005;Beck 2003), Iraq (Medina et al. 2011;Siebeneck et al. 2009;Johnson and Braithwaite 2009), Israel (Berrebi and Lakdawalla 2007;Brown et al. 2004), the United States (Webb andCutter 2009), Spain (LaFree et al. 2011), and Turkey (Rusnak et al. 2012;Demirci and Suen 2007). ...
This chapter is a review of adverse events throughout the war in Afghanistan by representing the mapping of these events. Three types of adverse events were considered in terms of the number of people killed, wounded, and hijacked and their total number in the active war theater of Afghanistan over the period of 2004–2010. For the purpose of understanding the patterns of adverse events, the results can be summarized by visualizing the occurrence of incidents by region; the emphasis was on analyzing the number of people killed, wounded, and hijacked to determine the risk of different parts of Afghanistan.
... The applications of geographically oriented modeling, in the domain of terrorism, is a relatively recent trend, and the work of spatial and temporal analysis of terrorist attacks is becoming increasingly important in the literature. Several studies have employed spatial and temporal analysis to terrorism events in Afghanistan (Open Source Center [OSC] 2009;Shroder 2005;Beck 2003), Iraq (Medina et al. 2011;Siebeneck et al. 2009;Johnson and Braithwaite 2009), Israel (Berrebi and Lakdawalla 2007;Brown et al. 2004), the United States (Webb andCutter 2009), Spain (LaFree et al. 2011), and Turkey (Rusnak et al. 2012;Demirci and Suen 2007). ...
This chapter is a review of adverse events throughout the war in Afghanistan by representing the mapping of these events. Three types of adverse events were considered in terms of the number of people killed, wounded, and hijacked and their total number in the active war theater of Afghanistan over the period of 2004–2010. For the purpose of understanding the patterns of adverse events, the results can be summarized by visualizing the occurrence of incidents by region; the emphasis was on analyzing the number of people killed, wounded, and hijacked to determine the risk of different parts of Afghanistan.
... The applications of geographically-oriented modeling, in the domain of terrorism, is a relatively recent trend, and the work of spatial and temporal analysis of terrorist attacks is becoming increasingly important in the literature. Several studies have employed spatial and temporal analysis to analyze terrorism events in Afghanistan (Open Source Center (OSC) 2009;Shroder 2005;Beck 2003), Iraq (Medina et al. 2011;Johnson and Braithwaite 2009;Siebeneck et al. 2009), Israil (Berrebi and Lakdawalla 2007;Brown et al. 2004), the U.S. (Webb andCutter 2009), Spain (LaFree et al. 2012), and Turkey (Rusnak et al. 2012;Demirci and Suen 2007). ...
This study presents an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach performed to estimate the number of adverse events where the dependent variables are adverse events leading to four types of variables: number of people killed, wounded, hijacked and total number of adverse events. Fourteen infrastructure development projects were selected based on allocated budgets values at different time periods, population density, and previous month adverse event numbers selected as independent variables. Firstly, number of independent variables was reduced by using ANFIS input selection approach. Then, several ANFIS models were performed and investigated for Afghanistan and the whole country divided into seven regions for analysis purposes. Performances of models were assessed and compared based on the mean absolute errors. The difference between observed and estimated value was also calculated within ±1±1 range with values around 90 %. We included multiple linear regression (MLR) model results to assess the predictive power of the ANFIS approach, in comparison to a traditional statistical approach. When the model accuracy was calculated according to the performance metrics, ANFIS showed greater predictive accuracy than MLR analysis, as indicated by experimental results. As a result of this study, we conclude that ANFIS is able to estimate the occurrence of adverse events according to economical infrastructure development project data.
... O'Loughlin (2005) raises several issues in response to Beck (2003), expressing concern about problems of replication, classified research, and violating value neutrality in research dealing with terrorism. Both articles were highly publicized through the premier journal, The Professional Geographer (PG), as were subsequent related articles by Beck (2005) in response to O'Loughlin (2005) and Shroder (2005) who provided additional commentary surrounding the issue of replication of classified research and violations of value neutrality. It is an issue that remains unresolved and has serious ramifications for the future research by geographers on the subject. ...
https://etd.ohiolink.edu/pg_10?0::NO:10:P10_ACCESSION_NUM:osu1186577047
Terrorism is a world-wide multi-dimensional problem that appears at many scales. Many aspects of terrorism have been studied extensively; however, the geographic and spatial component of terrorism has received little attention by researchers. The aims of this research are to evaluate definitions of terrorism and demonstrate how geographic scale within the definition of terrorism provides a clearer distinction between terrorism from other forms of violence, conduct a vulnerability analysis through the methods presented by the hazard research paradigm, survey the general population and create a perceived risk profile, and evaluate the effectiveness of the geographic scale at which the Homeland Security Advisory System operates. The results demonstrate ways in which geovisualization of terrorism using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be achieved for both anti-terrorism and counter-terrorism activities. Realized (real) and perception-based approaches are taken to understanding vulnerability and risk issues in a regional study of Columbus, Ohio through geographic visualization.
GEOVISUALIZING TERROR: THE GEOGRAPHY OF TERRORISM THREAT IN THE UNITED STATES. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/267203122_GEOVISUALIZING_TERROR_THE_GEOGRAPHY_OF_TERRORISM_THREAT_IN_THE_UNITED_STATES [accessed Feb 01 2018].
... Our study uses a spatial lens and a disaggregated approach to investigate the patterns of conflict that characterize the meeting of these two "new wars." Unlike Beck (2003) and Shroeder (2005) in their accounts of their research on the "war on terror" front in Afghanistan, we provide full disclosure of our data (geolocated violent events) and methods (GIS, remote sensing, and geostatistical) in line with O'Loughlin's (2005b) call for transparency and disclosure in academic work. ...
A team of political geographers analyzes over 5,000 violent events collected from media reports for the Afghanistan and Pakistan conflicts during 2008 and 2009. The violent events are geocoded to precise locations and the authors employ an exploratory spatial data analysis approach to examine the recent dynamics of the wars. By mapping the violence and examining its temporal dimensions, the authors explain its diffusion from traditional foci along the border between the two countries. While violence is still overwhelmingly concentrated in the Pashtun regions in both countries, recent policy shifts by the American and Pakistani gov-ernments in the conduct of the war are reflected in a sizeable increase in overall violence and its geographic spread to key cities. The authors identify and map the clusters (hotspots) of con-flict where the violence is significantly higher than expected and examine their shifts over the two-year period. Special attention is paid to the targeting strategy of drone missile strikes and the increase in their number and geographic extent by the Obama administration. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: H560, H770, O180. 15 figures, 1 table, 113 ref-erences.
... These image time series can provide a fast (near real-time, MODIS products are available about two weeks after acquisition) overview of changes on the surface. Some authors have shown the power of remote sensing and GIS as counter-terrorism tools to identify certain regions with terroristic activities (Beck 2003, Shroder, 2005 ). This paper, however, focuses on a larger perspective and the longterm consequences of drought and war in Afghanistan. ...
War and resulting institutional changes can be important drivers of land use and land cover change. We explore how war, its consequences, and drought have affected the land surface phenology (LSP) of Afghanistan. Afghanistan offers a unique case of a semi-arid country with multiple institutional changes during the past two decades. Long image time series are able to characterize the seasonal development of Afghanistan's vegetated land surface. We apply a statistical framework to four governance periods and compare the average AVHRR NDVI 8 km data across periods, and calculate trends within study periods. We focus on significant changes in LSP in the region around Qandahar. Finally, we assess changes in LSP between 2001 (a drought year) and 2003 (a year with sufficient precipitation) using MODIS NDVI 1km data. Results reveal the strengths and limitations of LSP modeling in an environment characterized by high interannual and spatial variability as well as by socio-economic turbulence.
Terrorism as a geographical object: an inventory
This paper first proposes an operational solution to the problem of defining terrorism, describes its characteristics as a geographical object. For this purpose, the following points are reviewed : the spatial distribution of terrorist acts and actors ; the territories of terrorism (states grey areas, black holes, sanctuaries and cities) ; the polemical representations and cartographies of the terrorist as foe and the risk of terrorism ; finally the « places of memory » as means of dealing with terrorism, mainly in urban landscapes. Based on an extensive bibliography representing the main trends of current research, this paper intends also to propose a framework for organizing a coherent field of investigation, allowing an accumulation of knowledge and the formulation of worthwhile hypotheses to examine for empirical validation.
This paper explores ‘the politics of geography,’ or the nature and problematic aspects of daily activities of geographers by examining cases in Anglophone political geography. Particular attention is paid to the four ‘incidents’ that became controversial among (political) geographers and can be considered informative for such an exploration. These incidents do not only concern conflicts and debates in academic journals over scholarly activities but also created various ‘sociological’ reactions from even outside of geography. Subject matters in political geography tend to be controversial because they often reflect the authors’ own political preferences and positionality. Whereas overt expressions of such preferences in / through academic journals may conflict with the journals’ ‘neutrality’ or ‘fairness,’ the journals themselves may direct their publication policy toward particular ‘political’ purposes. Most of the incidents became accidentally known to the author through John O’Loughlin, who has been an editor of the journal Political Geography since its foundation. Drawing on the experiences of O’Loughlin and Political Geography and without concluding that ‘everything is political,’ this paper attempts to reveal where and how ‘the political’ played out in those incidents and to provide a clue to a self-reflection on the socio-political implications of our daily academic activities.
Remote sensing refers to the acquisition of information at a distance. More specifically, it has come to mean using aerial photographs or sensors on satellites to gather data about features on the surface of the earth. In this article, remote sensing and related concepts are defined and the methods used in gathering and processing remotely sensed imagery are discussed. The evolution of remote sensing, generic applications and major sources of remotely sensed imagery and programs used in processing and analyzing remotely sensed imagery are presented. Then the application of remote sensing in warfare and counterterrorism is discussed in general terms with a number of specific examples of successes and failures in this particular area. Next, the potential for misuse of the increasing amount of high resolution imagery available over the Internet is discussed along with prudent countermeasures to potential abuses of this data. Finally, future trends with respect to this rapidly evolving technology are included.
Geographic information systems emerged in the 1970s and have become a significant decision-making tool as their capabilities have been enhanced. This chapter discusses various GIS applications and highlights issues that public managers should consider when evaluating implementation of a geographic information system. GIS applications provide benefits at the planning level by producing maps efficiently, and at the management decision-making level through an ability to geographically display important information for policy-level decisions. While GIS analysis can be a powerful tool, there are a number of issues that pubic managers should consider in order to achieve effective implementation and use of geographic information systems.
Natural Resources in Afghanistan: Geographic and Geologic Perspectives on Centuries of Conflict details Afghanistans physical geography - namely climate, soils, vegetation, water, hazards, and basic geologic background and terrain landforms - together with details of its rich natural resources, ethnic problems, and relevant past histories. The book couples these details with the challenges of environmental degradation and new environmental management and protection, all of which are considered finally in both pessimistic and optimistic modes. The reader comes away with a nuanced understanding of the issues that are likely to have great affect for this pivotal region of the world for decades to come. With an estimated $1-3 trillion dollars of ore in the ground, and multiple cross-reinforcing cancellations of big Asian power machinations (China, India, Iran, Pakistan), Afghanistan has an opportunity to gain more economic independence. At the same time, however, historic forces of negativity also pull it back toward the chaos and uncertainty that has defined the country and constrained its economic progress for decades. Authored by the world's foremost expert on the geology and geomorphology of Afghanistan and its lucrative natural resources Aids in the understanding of the physical environment, natural hazards, climate-change situations, and natural resources in one of the most geographically diverse and dangerous terrains in the world Provides new concepts of resource-corridor development in a country with no indigenous expertise of its resources.
Increasingly, the power of a large, complex, wired nation like the United States rests on its ability to disrupt would-be cyber attacks and to be resilient against a successful attack or recurring campaign. Addressing the concerns of both theorists and those on the national security front lines, Chris C. Demchak presents a unified strategy for survival in an interconnected, ever-messier, more surprising cybered world and examines the institutional adaptations required of our defense, intelligence, energy, and other critical sectors for national security. Demchak introduces a strategy of "security resilience" against surprise attacks for a cybered world that is divided between modern, digitally vulnerable city-states and more dysfunctional global regions. Its key concepts build on theories of international relations, complexity in social-technical systems, and organizational-institutional adaptation. Demchak tests the strategy for reasonableness in history's few examples of states disrupting rather than conquering and being resilient to attacks, including ancient Athens and Sparta, several British colonial wars, and two American limited wars. She applies the strategy to modern political, social, and technical challenges and presents three kinds of institutional adaptation that predicate the success of the security resilience strategy in response. Finally, Demchak discusses implications for the future including new forms of cyber aggression like the Stuxnet worm, the rise of the cyber-command concept, and the competition between the U.S. and China as global cyber leaders. Wars of Disruption and Resilience offers a blueprint for a national cyber-power strategy that is long in time horizon, flexible in target and scale, and practical enough to maintain the security of a digitized nation facing violent cybered conflict. © 2011 by the University of Georgia Press. All rights reserved.
Two UK-based specialists on terrorism in Pakistan use empirical evidence to document and analyze the Pakistani Taliban's (Tehrik-e-Taliban) practice of targeting spaces of public interaction for terrorism intended to suppress expressions of public unity and restrict venues for open discussion. In tracing the rise of the Taliban in Pakistan, the authors review the country's history of state and civil society formation, its relations with Afghanistan, and U.S. and Western policy in the region. The authors present timely information and insights that enhance understanding of the recent surge in terrorist attacks on civilians in Pakistan and its ties to the eastward spread of conflict from neighboring Afghanistan.
Terrorist incidents are not random in space or time. Understanding the current spatial and temporal patterns of terrorist incidents, as well as predicting future trends, is vital for effective counterterrorist efforts. This article focuses on terrorist incidents in Iraq, which are defined here as attacks, both successful and unsuccessful, in order to detect patterns in the establishment of terrorist activity spaces. Using Geographic Information Science (GISc), this project carries out a series of spatial and temporal cluster identification analyses on recent terrorist incidents in Iraq.
Water-related diseases continue to pose major threats to children's survival and well-being in many places in the developing world. This article develops a theoretical perspective on the ways in which children's vulnerability to water-related disease hazard is produced within the everyday circumstances of livelihood and child care. Central to this analysis is the role that household resources play in mediating or shaping particular microenvironments of health risk. Further, the effects of local geographies of gender on how household resources are accessed and on how child care is structured are examined. Children's vulnerability is evaluated in a community in the District of Gilgit in northern Pakistan, a region presently undergoing tremendous social and economic transformation. The case study highlights household-level response and adaptation to child health risks associated with diarrheal disease transmission and infection in this mountain environment. The case study draws from edmographic fieldwork involving qualitative household microstudies and interviewing to elicit mothers' resource and risk-response strategies in the context of changes in livelihood systems and household dynamics.
Thick deposits preserved in deep valleys in the Indus, Gilgit, and Hunza River Basins, and a variety of dates, allow new definition of Quaternary events in the Karakoram and Nanga Parbat Himalaya. An unusually long record for an actively eroding high mountain area is recognized in three major episodes of glaciation during Pleistocene time. An early glaciation is represented by the indurated lower Jalipur tillites and heterogeneous upper Jalipur valley-fill sedimentary rock younger than 1 to 2 Ma, which are folded, overturned, or overridden by rapid movement on the dextral-reverse Raikot fault. This is associated with high overall uplift rates of the Nanga Parbat-Haramosh massif during late Cenozoic time. The middle glaciation is represented by two tills intercalated within variable sediments, including thick lacustrine units dipping as much as 43° along the fault. The Indus-Shatial till of the early middle glaciation records the farthest advance of Pleistocene glaciers down the Indus River valley. The last glaciation apparently occurred after about 140,000 yr ago and consists of three to four or more separate advances, as recorded by morainic topography. The most prominent of these is the Dianyor moraine near Gilgit, which was produced by a major longitudinal glacier. Near Haramosh and downstream at Nanga Parbat, Shatial, and elsewhere, transverse glaciers blocked the Indus River to produce lake deposits now dipping as much as 6° near the fault. Catastrophic floods from failure of the ice dams, and possibly landslide dams as well, emplaced some Punjab erratics and sediments that may have been reworked into loesses and other sediments at the mountain front.
A brief report on the problems and status of the glacier inventory of Afghanistan is given. Major problems are encountered with maps, difficulties in getting them and the incompatibility of the American and Russian maps. The inventory work is proceeding in three large basins: Turkestan endorheic, Indus and the Afghan-Iran plateau. A total of 1207 glaciers have been inventoried so far. Problèmes particuliers de l'inventaire des glaciers en Afghanistan Résumé. On donne un bref aperçu des problèmes et de l'état actuel de l'inventaire des glaciers afghans. Les cartes, les difficultés recontrées pour se procurer ces dernières, ainsi que l'incompati bilité des cartes américaines et des cartes russes sont les principaux problèmes. Dans le cadre de l'inventaire, on procède à une subdivision en trois grands bassins: le bassin versant clos du Turkestan, l'Indus et le plateau afghano-iranien. Au total, 1207 glaciers ont étés inventoriés jusqu'à ce jour.
Rocks forming the backdrop of video footage of an admitted September 11 terrorist appeared to the author to belong to the Kurram Group of eastern Afghanistan. The cultural geography and military history of the area suggested that the terrorist was in or near the Zhawar Kili cave complex. Band-ratio satellite image mapping combined with public National Imagery and Mapping Agency and United Nations databases confirmed that Zhawar Kili is on Kurram Group rocks. This information was forwarded to the U.S. government in October 2001. Military and news media reports indicate the subsequent successful elimination of a large number of terrorists and munitions at Zhawar Kili in November 2001 and January, February, and April of 2002.
Water-related diseases continue to pose major threats to children's survival and well-being in many places in the developing world. This article develops a theoretical perspective on the ways in which children's vulnerability to water-related disease hazard is produced within the everyday circumstances of livelihood and child care. Central to this analysis is the role that household resources play in mediating or shaping particular microenvironments of health risk. Further, the effects of local geographies of gender on how household resources are accessed and on how child care is structured are examined. Children's vulnerability is evaluated in a community in the District of Gilgit in northern Pakistan, a region presently undergoing tremendous social and economic transformation. The case study highlights household-level response and adaptation to child health risks associated with diarrheal disease transmission and infection in this mountain environment. The case study draws from ethnographic fieldwork involving qualitative household microstudies and interviewing to elicit mothers' resource and risk-response strategies in the context of changes in livelihood systems and household dynamics.
The analysis of contemporary terrorism and related policy prescriptions both suffer from a lack of geographical understanding. This short article engages terrorist studies by outlining: (1) the importance of geohistorical context in understanding the causes of contemporary terrorism, especially the role of the United States as hegemonic power; (2) the spatiality of terrorist networks; and (3) the potentially negative efficacy of existing counterterrorist policies given the interaction of terrorist networks and state sovereignty. Finally, a call is made for comparative studies of terrorism and greater interaction between political geography and peace and conflict studies.
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