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Distance travelled and offence characteristics in homicide, rape, and robbery against business
Abstract
Purpose. We aimed (1) to describe distances from home to offence locations (journey‐to‐crime) of offenders in difficult‐to‐solve homicides and rapes as well as robberies against businesses; (2) to see whether the distances in these offences differ from each other; and (3) to test whether selected features related to the offence would be associated with the distances.
Methods. Lists of difficult‐to‐solve (DTS) homicides ( N = 99) and rapes ( N = 56) as well as robberies against businesses ( N = 275) from the city of Milan (Italy) were acquired. The collected data consisted of home and offence location coordinates with information on the behaviour of the offenders (for rapes and homicides). The journey‐to‐crime functions were calibrated using the journey‐to‐crime module of CrimeStatIII©.
Results. Most distances were short. In homicides, distances were below 1 km, in rapes below 2 km whereas in robberies against businesses almost 6 km. Some crime features were correlated with the distances in rape and homicide cases. Combining the behavioural information to a spatial behaviour measure allowed for better prediction of travelled distances compared to using single variables.
Conclusions. The results have practical implications for crime investigations as the crime features explored were, as a rule, such that they would be known by the police prior to the offender being identified. A general theoretical framework for binding together journey‐to‐crime distances and offender crime scene behaviour and other important crime features is needed.
... In terms of specific outcomes of sexual offenses against women incidents, one of the most common themes across all of these studies was whether or not penetration of the victim by the offender occurred. Given the heterogeneous nature of samples described above, the proportions of this particular outcome across the studies considered were quite high ranging between nearly 60.4 % of incidents in which this occurred (Beauregard and Bouchard 2010), and up to as high as in 90.7 % of incidents (Santtila et al. 2008). In addition, and perhaps not surprisingly, there was far less variation across studies based on this particular outcome regardless of source. ...
... Perhaps not surprisingly, the timing of when sexual offenses against women occur has received much attention in the literature. For example, several of the studies examined are quite clear on the fact that these offenses are most likely to occur at night (Atkenson et al. 1989;Fisher et al. 2007;Gibson et al. 1980;Guerette and Santana 2010;Kleck and Sayles 1990;Santtila et al. 2008;Ullman 1998;Ullman and Knight 1992;Warren et al. 1999). In addition, this broad conclusion holds quite stable across studies despite the fact that varying parameters are applied to measure time of day (e.g., hour of the day, compared to more broad timeframes such as the 'evening'), unique samples (e.g., those based on information collected by offenders, compared to those based on victimization data), and different types of offender-victim relationships (e.g., perpetrators who are strangers compared to those who know the victim). ...
... On the other hand, studies also list strategies such as the use of weapons (41.1 %) (e.g., Beauregard et al. 2007b) and/or Brape kits^(18 %) (e.g., supplies to confine the victim; Beauregard and Bouchard 2010). Studies using samples of serial stranger offenders in particular have also reported high proportions of offenders using violence with percentages as high as 83.9 % (e.g., Santtila et al. 2008). ...
Sexual violence against women is a serious problem worldwide. In this study, we organize and critically review previous empirical studies on sexual offenses against women through the lens of environmental criminology. For this purpose, we use the questions asked by environmental criminologists/crime analysts in the study of crime events; that is the: who, what, where, when, and how this phenomenon typically occurs. Based on the current state of the criminological research literature, we then provide a discussion on the prevention of sexual offenses against women drawing on a situational crime prevention framework. By engaging in this exercise, we argue that environmental criminology can substantially contribute to understanding and informing prevention practices in the field of sexual offenses against women.
... While not a new phenomenon, LeBeau (1987b) notes that the literature on 'journey-to-rape' is much scarcer than it is for other crime types. The overarching conclusion that emerges from this small literature is that rapists have short crime trips, choosing to offend within only a few miles of their residence in most cases (e.g., Amir, 1971;Block, Galary, & Brice, 2007;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a, 2019bDavies & Dale, 1995;LeBeau, 1987b;Rossmo, Davies, & Patrick, 2003;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Warren et al., 1998). Although not as well documented, victims of rape have short crime trips as well, with most attacks occurring within close proximity of their residence (Amir, 1971;Block et al., 2007;Ceccato, 2014;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a). ...
... 22). Given this theoretical proposition, however, only a few studies on rape have acknowledged the importance of motivation in the spatial behavior of offenders (e.g., Santtila et al., 2007;Santtila et al., 2008), but these studies largely categorize motive as being binary: 'planned' versus 'opportunistic', or 'instrumental' versus 'expressive'. However, as this study and previous scholars have shown (e.g., Reid, Beauregard, Fedina, & Frith, 2014), further variation in the type and strength of motivation of rapists exists within these broad categories. ...
Purpose
To examine the variability in the ‘journey-to-crime’ and ‘journey-to-victimization’ in stranger rapes when disaggregated by offender motive. Using crime pattern theory as the theoretical framework, a series of pre-offense factors are used to explain these differences.
Methods
Two-step cluster analysis is first used to identify motive subtypes in 1009 stranger female rapes from a French police database. Kruskal-Wallis analyses then test for significant differences in distances traveled between the motivational groups. Finally, a series of negative binomial regressions are conducted to predict three distance measures: offender's residence to crime scene, victim's residence to crime scene, and victim's residence to offender's residence.
Results
The average distances traveled for both offenders and victims to the crime scene, and between their residences, varied by motive. Findings from the regression models indicated that while offender motive is important, environmental characteristics and victim activity at the time of the assault also predict the distances traveled for both individuals.
Conclusions
Determining the most likely motive of the offender, in conjunction with other offense characteristics that would be known at the time of investigation, has the potential to provide law enforcement officials with an indication of the unknown offender's geographic behavior in active rape cases.
... While not a new phenomenon, LeBeau (1987b) notes that the literature on 'journey-to-rape' is much scarcer than it is for other crime types. The overarching conclusion that emerges from this small literature is that rapists have short crime trips, choosing to offend within only a few miles of their residence in most cases (e.g., Amir, 1971;Block, Galary, & Brice, 2007;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a, 2019bDavies & Dale, 1995;LeBeau, 1987b;Rossmo, Davies, & Patrick, 2003;Santtila, Laukkanen, & Zappala, 2007;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Warren et al., 1998). Although not as well documented, victims of rape have short crime trips as well, with most attacks occurring within close proximity of their residence (Amir, 1971;Block et al., 2007;Ceccato, 2014;Chopin & Caneppele, 2019a). ...
... 22). Given this theoretical proposition, however, only a few studies on rape have acknowledged the importance of motivation in the spatial behavior of offenders (e.g., Santtila et al., 2007;Santtila et al., 2008), but these studies largely categorize motive as being binary: 'planned' versus 'opportunistic', or 'instrumental' versus 'expressive'. However, as this study and previous scholars have shown (e.g., Reid, Beauregard, Fedina, & Frith, 2014), further variation in the type and strength of motivation of rapists exists within these broad categories. ...
Purpose: To examine the variability in the journey-to-crime and journey-to-victimization in stranger rapes when disaggregated by offender motive. Using crime pattern theory as the theoretical framework, a series of pre-offense factors are used to explain these differences.
Methods : Two-step cluster analysis is first used to identify motive subtypes in 1009 stranger female rapes from a French police database. Kruskal-Wallis analyses then test for significant differences in distances traveled between the motivational groups. Finally, a series of negative binomial regressions are conducted to predict three distance measures: offender's residence to crime scene, victim's residence to crime scene, and victim's residence to offender's residence.
Results: The average distances traveled for both offenders and victims to the crime scene, and between their residences, varied by motive. Findings from the regression models indicated that while offender motive is important, environmental characteristics and victim activity at the time of the assault also predict the distances traveled for both individuals.
Conclusions: Determining the most likely motive of the offender, in conjunction with other offense characteristics that would be known at the time of investigation, has the potential to provide law enforcement officials with an indication of the unknown offender 's geographic behavior in active rape cases.
... Understanding the characteristics of the locations where stranger rape occurs can help inform the development of evidence-based crime prevention policy. A prevention approach is particularly important as stranger rapes are difficult for the police to investigate and where a suspect is identified, unfortunately many cases do not progress through the criminal justice system to a conviction (Santtila et al., 2008;Stern, 2010). Prevention opportunities surrounding acquaintance or domestic rapes usually focus on the known offender, this being in terms of arrest of the offender and removal from the physical environment to prevent reoffending where possible. ...
This paper examines the spatial, environmental, and temporal patterns of 10,488 stranger rapes committed over a 15-year period in Greater London, UK. We distinguished between two types of stranger rapes according to perpetrator method of approach, i.e. absent/fleeting interaction with victim on approach (S1) or extended interaction with victim on approach (S2). There were a range of locational settings in which perpetrators both encountered their victims and where the offence took place, and these differed by method of approach. The highest number of S1 offences occurred outdoors, with 74% of approaches and 55% of offences located recorded as outside. For S2 rapes, there was more variety in approach locations with only 32% outside. The level of locational correspondence between approach and offence location was 71% for S1 rapes and 28% for S2 rapes. A series of negative binomial regression models identified variables predictive of stranger rape offence location. There were significant associations with transport connections and the night-time economy for both S1 and S2 rapes. Other significant predictors were deprivation score, the percentage of one person properties, and the percentage of private rented properties in a location. The percentage of green space was a significant predictor for S1 rapes only. The current findings challenge the popular narrative that stranger rape occurs in a specific setting (i.e. outside in a secluded location at night) and have implications for place-based crime prevention policy.
... This holds true across crime types, including burglary (Barker, 2000;Rengert, Piquero, & Jones, 1999), robbery (Pettiway, 1982), sex offenses (Beauregard, Proulx, & Rossmo, 2005), and homicide (Groff & McEwen, 2005). Offenders typically only travel within a few miles of their homes (Ackerman & Kim Rossmo, 2015;Rossmo, 2000;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008). For example, examining journey patterns for 10 different types of crime, Phillips (1980) found a mean distance to crime of 1.43 miles. ...
Objectives
Current strategies for locating where offenders live either focus exclusively on individual suspects or generalize to entire neighborhoods. However, better estimates of where offenders are located may improve models of the ecological distribution of crime, and forecasts of the locations of future crime incidents.
Methods
We propose a novel reverse spatial patterning (RSP) strategy that estimates where offenders may live based on the spatial locations of crime events. We rely on a distance decay function – based on the consistent finding that offenders do not travel far to commit crime – and Hipp's (2016) general theory of spatial crime patterns, to work backwards from the locations of actual crime events to make predictions about where offenders may live in subsequent years. We then use these estimates in models predicting crime locations. We create two versions of the RSP: one which assumes everyone is equally likely to offend, and another that creates an estimate assuming disproportionate offending across persons.
Results
We test the effectiveness of our proposed strategy for these two measures using offense and arrest data from St. Petersburg, FL, and assess how well they predict the location of offenders (proxied by arrestees) and future crime events. We find consistent evidence that our RSP strategy provides better predictions of the locations of where offenders are located and also future crime incidents across a variety of crime types compared to existing strategies.
Conclusion
The RSP approach is useful for creating estimates of where offenders live, which allow for better predictions of the locations of future crime incidents. These better forecasts will allow for more efficient allocation of police resources and targeted crime suppression efforts.
... Distance decay theory also proves useful in the field of theoretical criminological research. Different offence, offender and target types may influence the distance decay pattern (Bernasco, 2006;Bernasco & Block, 2009;Kocsis, Cooksey, Irwin, & Allen, 2002;Kocsis & Harvey, 1997;Pettiway, 1982;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008). However, the principle behind the distance decay pattern has also been the subject of debate. ...
After release in early 2009 of an initial set of two volumes in the GofS Research Paper Series, the editorial board is proud to issue a set of two more volumes, comprising papers (again all reviewed by international peers, the list of which is set out in the appendix) clustered around two well-profiled research axes. Volume 4 focuses on topical issues in EU and International Crime Control. Its table of contents is provided below the brief description of the papers comprised in the current book, which constitutes Volume 3, providing new empirical data, theories and analyses on Safety, Societal Problems and Citizens’ Perceptions. Some articles in Volume 3 focus especially on issues of conceptualisation and measurement of key constructs in the study of security in its broadest meaning (from fear of crime to corruption) some articles present tests of theoretical models derived from theoretical criminology, and finally some articles focus on different institutional reactions towards crime and drug-related problems (e.g. policing, the conflict of interests between private companies and authorities and restorative justice).
... Presenting histograms constructed from equally sized bins (distance classes) prevents this potential methodological artefact. Kernel density estimates have been used to smoothen the observed distribution of discrete frequencies (e.g., Laukkanen and Santtila 2006; Santtila et al. 2007Santtila et al. , 2008 but are saddled with the same issue: the estimates are biased downwards near zero, creating the false visual impression of a buffer zone. Future studies aiming for testing the buffer zone hypothesis, or other issues that require measurement of small distances, should be careful to prevent bias through rounding or smoothing operations on the distance measure. ...
Background
There is general agreement that the frequency of crime decreases with the distance from the offender’s home. By way of exception to this distance decay pattern, the buffer zone hypothesis states that offenders avoid offending very close to home. The purpose of the present study was to assess the validity of this hypothesis.
Methods
We conducted a systematic literature review of 4 bibliographic databases, in which we identified 108 studies on criminal distance decay, from which we selected 33 studies that include sufficient information to assess the existence of the buffer zone. Based on the full text of the research articles, we created a measure indicating whether the study supported or rejected the hypothesis and a measure summarizing the relative quality of the evidence as either weak-medium or strong.
Results
Of the 33 studies, 22 rejected the buffer zone hypothesis and 11 supported it. Across the whole sample, the methodological rigor of the studies was limited, but unrelated to whether the buffer zone hypothesis was supported or rejected.
Conclusions
Based on the available evidence the buffer zone hypothesis has gained limited support. We conclude by making recommendations on how to report data on the home-crime distance and suggesting a testing methodology for future research.
... The results of their research confirm this thesis: perpetrators of bank robberies tended to cover the greatest distances, while at the other end of the spectrum were perpetrators of attacks on petrol stations. These conclusions are consistent with the results of a study by Santtila et al. (2008), in which the authors pointed out that perpetrators of robberies against business travel on average the longest distance and that the distribution of JTC shows the existence of the buffer zone in the case of these events. ...
The aim of the article was to study the distribution of distances travelled for a sample of the Polish population of perpetrators. The analysis covered burglaries and robberies in Warsaw. The results point to the key role of the analysis of the behaviour at the crime scene and its characteristics in the estimation of the journey to crime distance, which is partly consistent with the hypotheses put forward. The results show that perpetrators are ready to travel longer distances if the event is associated with a greater profit or increased risk. However, differences in the distribution of the distances travelled are not as significant as suggested by previous research. The reasons for this and potential consequences are discussed in this paper.
... Work by Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, and Bosco (2008) examined the DtC for offenders who committed homicide, rape, and robbery. Results indicated that our sample of offenders did not differ statistically from those offenders who committed homicide, but did significantly differ from those who committed rape (t = 2.4, p < .05) ...
Research consistently demonstrates that offenders do not travel far to crime. Although this finding has been observed across different types of offending and offenders, one group rarely examined within this paradigm is offenders with mental illness (OWMI). We calculated the distance to crime for a group of offenders with a documented mental illness and compared that distance to those in other publications for other samples. We found that our sample of OWMI traveled about the same and in some cases shorter distances to crime than other offenders. Although this study has limitations, we believe it nevertheless lends support to the environmental criminology paradigm and provides important policy implications, as well as questions for further research.
... Approximations were made for: vicinity to the scene, using the postal code of the crime scene. Certain geographical area, using a circle with a radius of 0.98 km around the crime scene (Santtila et al., 2008). Previous convictions, using the homicide rate (1.1 per 100.000) to calculate the number of murderers in The Netherlands. ...
This paper provides a comparison between four methodologies that assist criminal investigators in homicide investigations. The Person of Interest Priority Assessment Tool, Trace Investigate and Evaluate, Rasterfahndung, and Analysis of Competing Hypotheses are compared on their performance in the collection, prioritization, and elimination phase of homicide cases in today's digital era. Three recent Dutch homicide cases are used. The use of categories during collection can assist criminal investigators in the early inclusion of the perpetrator into the investigation , however, in this digital era, the number of persons of interest becomes too large to humanly handle. All four methodologies use techniques to assign weight to pieces of evidence; further research is required to evaluate the effectiveness of these techniques when the amount of pieces of evidence explodes. The use of pre-set elimination categories shows the least promising result leaving most persons of interest not-eliminated by the currently used methodologies.
... Additionally, several studies by the Journey-to-Crime focused on the decrease of the offending predisposition as distance increases have proven than certain variables, like age [14,15], ethnicity or nationality [16][17][18], Modus Operandi [18,19] or crime typology [20] affect the relationship between distance and the likelihood of committing a crime. ...
Geographical profiling has been developed within the scientific community as a useful criminal investigation method. Its application in violent crimes has demanded a theoretical review and a valuation about the methodology used until now. This article offers a review of the basic concepts of geographical profiling and its evolution over time. To do that, there is an analysis of the main sustaining theories, such as environmental criminology or the circle theory and the main tools developed as computer software. Finally, it also covers a critical review about geographical profiling and its possible developments in the future.
... In tegenstelling tot reisrichting komt de criminele reisafstand in veel studies aan bod (e.g. Canter & Youngs, 2008;Capone & Nichols, 1975;Fritzon, 2001;Gabor & Gottheil, 1984;Groff, 2011;Rattner & Portnov, 2007;Rhodes & Conly, 1981;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Turner, 1969;Vilalta, 2010;White, 1932). Als algemeen principe geldt dat de reisafstand doorgaans kort is en dat daders zelden verder reizen dan enkele kilometers. ...
... Similarly, others have found that the median distance to crime for rapes was less than .75 miles compared to a median distance of almost 3.72 miles for robberies against businesses (Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008). Barker (2000) found that the mean distance traveled for burglaries was 2.41 miles. ...
... In combination with available knowledge about land use, street networks, proximity to freeways and other relevant landscape characteristics, the results are even better . Travelling distance varies across offence types, for example burglary studies have shown varied distances, from 0.89 km to 3.87 km (Canter & Youngs, 2008b;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappalà & Bosco, 2008). Crimes against property usually occur farther away from the home or base of an offender than do crimes against the person, which usually occur close to the base (Brantigham & Brantigham, 1991;Canter & Youngs, 2008a). ...
... An additional assumption that may underlie residence restrictions and other forms of sex offender legislation is that situational patterns of offending are consistent across offender type. Craissati and Beech (2004) found, however, that rapists were more likely to offend in outdoor settings (71%) than were child molesters (22%), and while ample research has demonstrated that rapists tend to commit crimes within close proximity of their homes (Beauregard, Proulx, & Rossmo, 2005;Santtila, Laukkanen, Zappala, & Bosco, 2008;Santtila, Zappala, Laukkanen, & Picozzi, 2003;Warren, Reboussin, Hazelwood, Cummings, Gibbs, & Trumbetta, 1998), few studies have directly examined where other types of sex offenders (e.g., child molesters) are likely to commit offenses (Duwe, Donnay, & Tewksbury, 2008;Smallbone & Wortley, 2000). Sex offenders may vary with regard to where they locate victims and select offense locations, suggesting geographical restrictions could be more suitable for offenders who commit particular forms of offenses. ...
Residence restriction laws, which aim to restrict known sex offenders from residing near child-dense community structures, appear, in part, to be based on the assumption that sex offenders are likely to seek out their victims in public places where children congregate. The current study examined the locations where offenders first came into contact with their victims and the locations where offenders perpetrated offenses. Archival case files (N = 405) of adult male sex offenders were analyzed to determine the frequency with which sex offenders met their victims and offended in public, semi-public, or private locations. Descriptive analyses revealed that 76.5% of the sex offenders in this sample met their victims in private locations, while 7.7% met their victims in semi-public settings, and 15.8% met their victims in public settings. Similarly, 82.2% of index offenses took place in private locations, while 10.9% and 6.9% occurred in semi-public and public locations, respectively. Given that a minority of offenses occur in public settings, sex offender-specific legislation that restricts offender access to child-dense places may be most effective if tailored narrowly to offender subtypes most likely to seek out victims in public places.
... Moreover,s everal studies have shownt hat the idea of psychologists being able to generate acoherent set of offender characteristicsbyinferring latent patterns or 'styles' of offending from crime scene information has provene mpiricallya nd theoretically problematic (see Snook, Cullen,B ennell, Taylor,&Gendreau, 2008), although they themselves recognize some recent and notable exceptions (e.g. Goodwill &A lison, 2007; Goodwill, Alison, &Beech, 2009; Mokros, 2007; Santtila, Pakkanen et al.,2008) as the field has developed. In the last 10 years, however,abroader definition of offender profiling, or BIA,h as emerged which recognizes the rangeo ff ruitful, reliable, tested, and transparent evidence-based methodsbywhich psychologists might provide advice to the police during investigations (Alison, McLean, &A lmond, 2007). ...
This paper outlines a brief history of the evolutionary trajectory of offender profiling and illustrates the three broad strands (investigative, clinical, and statistical) that emerged in the 1970s–1990s. We then indicate how a more pragmatic, interdisciplinary practitioner–academic model has emerged in recent years and go on to describe the range of contributions that are now made across the criminal justice field. More recently termed ‘behavioural investigative advice’ in the UK, the paper then argues that whilst a range of potential contributions exist (from linking crimes, risk assessment, provision of bad character evidence, investigative interviewing advice, to geoprofiling), the nature of the process by which that contribution occurs is not yet well understood. The review of these potential contributions concludes with several suggestions and recommendations for further research and relevant methodologies by which to conduct that research. This includes the requirement to combine conceptual and theory-driven models alongside empirically driven statistical approaches, as well as the requirement to more precisely delineate and describe how contributions are made by behavioural experts through cognitive task analyses and associated methods.
Research on the effectiveness of protective orders indicates that they have only marginal protective value for the victim. The current research This exploratory study investigated how the physical distance and temporal distance between the victim and offender corresponds to the rate of protective order violations. Results indicated that the rate of protective order violations was reduced to virtually zero when the victim and offender lived 25 miles or more apart. Surprisingly, this condition held for all types of relationships examined (physical, telephone, and cyber). The study concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings and suggestions for future research.
The study of geographic mobility through geospatial analysis and journey-to-crime approaches has made progress in environmental criminology, finding most offenders commit crime close to their residence. However, extant literature on serial homicide and geographic mobility is scarce, specifically lacking a comprehensive appraisal of relative research. To gain a better understanding of the geographic mobility patterns of serial homicide offenders, we must determine the current status of literature in this area, to figure out where to go in terms of future research. Therefore, the following study is a scoping review of existing literature on geographic mobility and serial homicide and four associated typologies (Holmes & DeBurger’s Geographic typology, Hickey’s Mobility typology, Canter’s Circle typology, and Rossmo’s Hunting Style typology) to achieve the following: (1) Comprehensively evaluate literature regarding serial homicide geographic mobility and four associated typologies to establish the current status of research; (2) uncover potential literature gaps; and (3) provide future research recommendations. Literature sources ( N = 43) on serial homicide and geographic mobility (1985–2018) were examined. While findings recognize the relevance of mobility functions in serial homicide investigations, gaps in literature were evident regarding serial homicide geographic mobility and the four associated typologies. Findings also reveal that systematic research in this field is limited. Policy implications and future research recommendations are discussed.
Głównym celem artykułu jest przedstawienie podstaw profilowania geograficznego, jako metody mającej zastosowanie w analizach przestrzennych sporządzanych na potrzeby wykrywania sprawców przestępstw. Wychodząc z założenia, że rozmieszczenie przestępstw i zachowania sprawców wykazują pewne prawidłowości przestrzenne, wykorzystuje się podejście geograficzne w procesie wykrywania tych sprawców. W kolejnych częściach artykułu przedstawione zostały podstawy teoretyczno-metodologiczne profilowania geograficznego, uwarunkowania skuteczności prowadzenia analiz przestrzennych, zasady generowania geoprofili. Na podstawie analizowanej literatury przedstawiona została krytyka i ograniczenia stosowania profilowania geograficznego, ale także dowiedziona została efektywność tej metody jako techniki śledczej.
Existing geographic profiling software that performs the widely tested probability dis- tance strategies has issues when implemented in criminal investigation in Japan. Therefore, we developed the Spatial Analysis Methods of Offender’s Nodes (SAMON) software based on a free software environment, R. Given the issues involving existing software, SAMON includes the fol- lowing three features: (1) prediction of an offender’s home base using different distance decay func- tions constructed from Japanese burglars’ Journey-to-Crime distances; (2) validation of prediction accuracy in the solved case; and (3) calibration of the distance decay functions using a sample of solved cases in a type and region that the user is interested in. We expect that SAMON will improve the availability of probability distance strategies and its accuracy in the Japanese context.
This study identifies the first crime script for unsolved stranger sexual offenses against women. The purpose is to better understand the crime-commission process of solved and unsolved stranger sexual offenses and identify potential points of intervention for prevention purposes. Crime script analysis was performed on 542 solved ( n = 265) and unsolved ( n = 277) cases based on police data in Queensland, Australia, followed by a comparison between solved and unsolved crime scripts. Results showed that unsolved offenses tended to be associated with the following factors: the offender fleeing/desisting, using minimal force, less intrusive sexual outcomes, and less verbal engagement with the victim. In these cases, there was a lack of information regarding forensic evidence, behavioral clues, and eyewitness leads. This highlights the relevance of focusing on situational crime prevention and policing strategies that may deter stranger sexual crimes at the earliest stages of the script.
The finding that offenders tend to commit crime within relative proximity to their own residence has been well established in nearly 80 years of research. The usefulness of this area of research extends not only to the validation of environmental crime theories, but also offers to improve crime analysis capabilities, police investigative practice, and ultimately crime case clearances. Despite the considerable attention this area of study has received, much remains to be known about the factors which might influence variation in residence-to-crime (RTC) distances. One somewhat recently formalized idea is that offenders might be limited by the time that they have in which to commit crimes (such as by employment or family demands) and that this will constrict the geographic mobility of offenders as they operate within those time constraints. This study tested this time-constraint hypothesis on a sample of sex offense incidents (N = 157) from the state of New Jersey. Findings revealed limited support for the time-constraint thesis, before and after controlling for offender, situational and geographic characteristics. Implications for theory and practice are discussed.
This thoroughly updated and revised new edition provides an essential overview of a full range of psychological contributions to the understanding of crime and the processes of dealing with offenders and helping their victims. From the cognitive, developmental and social processes that influence a diverse range of crimes, including burglary, fraud, rape and murder, to the challenges faced by the police and courts in investigating crime or securing reliable testimony, the text is packed with pedagogical features that bring this fascinating subject to life. These include boxes highlighting key topics or issues around research methods, further reading and suggested essay titles. Also including chapters on rehabilitation in prisons and the psychology of victims, the text examines hot topics such as gang membership and terrorism, as well as discussing how psychology may better understand criminals and criminal behaviour in the future. It builds to a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the field. It will be ideal for students across psychology, criminology and socio-legal studies and law.
Prostitution is one of the most publicly recognized crimes, yet one which we have limited information. Particularly, we have little knowledge of male prostitution and not much information on the locations of sexual transactions. This study fills a void in the research as we apply journey to crime theory to the question of “where” as it applies to male prostitution. Data gathered from Chicago calculate the distance traveled and arrest location for the purchase and trade of sexual services. Findings demonstrate johns travel the greatest distance from their home addresses to the arrest location, followed by pimps, then prostitutes.
The area of Offender Profiling generates a lot of interest in both the academic field and the everyday world as a result of a few highly prolific cases (e.g., Jack the Ripper, Boston Strangler). Historically, profiling has been based on intuition and experience, but as the field has matured, the need to be more scientific in approach has led to the development of empirically driven models/typologies of offender behaviour based.Different approaches have attempted to define, and operationalize offender profiling based on the individual principles inherent in each approach.Briefly, the Criminal Investigative approach to profiling initially relied upon the investigative experience and observation of FBI agents who soon started publishing on the topic. However, in more recent years, large databases containing information on serial and violent crime/criminals has allowed for more empirical approaches to emerge (Snook, Luther, House, Bennell, & Taylor, 2012). The Clinical approach, on the other hand, adopts a model of offender profiling that centers on the concept of motives. Finally, and most recently, the Statistical approach has aimed to provide a testable scientific framework for identifying and inferring offender characteristics/motives.However, none of these approaches alone can explain the complexities of offending behaviour. The Criminal Investigative approach brings with it a multitude of experience from investigators; the Clinical brings an abundance of medical and privileged clientbased knowled ≥ while the Statistical approach aims to provide more objective measures and examination of offending behaviour. Without the experience, knowledge, and information offered by the first two approaches, the ability to know which variables to look for or code for would be lost. However, the latter Statistical approach allows practitioner-based knowledge to be integrated with the objective examination of offending patterns and correlated findings. Therefore, the way forward should seek to integrate all of the approaches (Alison, West, & Goodwill, 2004; Alison, Goodwill, Almond, van den Heuvel, & Winter, 2010). Together, the approaches strengthen each other and give weight and support to one another. More importantly, they help strengthen the field of offender profiling as a whole.In this chapter, an overview and critique of the offender profiling literature; its underlying assumptions; and the relationship between the crime scene actions and the offender characteristics will be presented. In addition, each of the approaches to offender profiling that have developed over its short empirical history will be described and critiqued.
Most journey-to-crime studies are flawed in two ways: they predominantly rely on local police data and although a number of studies hint at the presence of substantially longer crime trips than commonly reported, long trips are deliberately removed from further analysis. Consequently, the scope of the conclusions of current journey-to-crime studies is limited to local offending and their empirical design is biased towards finding short trips. This paper substantiates the need for dedicated criminological research into long crime trips and provides an initial insight into journey-to-crime distances in the greater Ghent area, Belgium. By analyzing 5 year public prosecutor data on property crimes from the greater Ghent area, the length of the journey to crime and the number of long crime trips is assessed. Findings demonstrate a substantial amount of long crime trips with 35% of crime trips over 10 km. The criminological implications for future journey-to-crime research are discussed.
This paper is dedicated to the identification of the constraints and factors enabling the computation of an effective geographic profile, with the specificity of focusing only on the elements that could be available during an investigation. It aimed at filling the gap between the inductive demarche of environmental criminology and the deductive, operational procedure followed by geographic profilers. It reviews successively the relationship between the premeditation, the seriousness of the facts, the nature of the offences and the spatio-temporal pattern of the crimes with the criteria required to build effective likelihood surfaces in geographic profiling. A decision tree is provided as a tool for evaluating the risks of an ineffective geographic profile with regard to the non-respect of the different conditions.
This paper outlines ab rief historyo ft he evolutionaryt rajectoryo fo ffender profiling and illustrates the threebroad strands (investigative, clinical,and statistical)that emerged in the 1970s–1990s. We then indicate how am ore pragmatic,i nterdisciplinary practitioner–academic model has emerged in recent years and go on to describe the range of contributions that are now made across the criminal justice field. More recently termed 'behavioural investigative advice' in the UK, the paper then argues that whilst ar ange of potential contributions exist (from linking crimes, risk assessment, provision of bad character evidence, investigative interviewing advice, to geoprofiling), the nature of the process by which that contribution occurs is not yet well understood. The review of these potential contributions concludes with several suggestionsa nd recommendationsf or furtherr esearch andr elevant methodologies by which to conduct that research. This includes the requirement to combine conceptual and theory-driven models alongside empirically driven statistical approaches, as well as the requirement to more precisely delineate and describe how contributions are made by behavioural experts through cognitive task analyses and associated methods. Several countries' police services regularly employ the assistanceo fp sychologists in relation to the prevention, management, and investigation of crime (Alison, 2005). Although some of what theya re engaged in might be described as offender profiling, the supportf rom psychologists over the last 10 years, in the UK at least,m ight be more accurately described as behavioural investigative advice (BIA; ACPO,2 006). The older term offender profiling hasd eveloped an almost mythic status in popular literature and drama (Herndon, 2007), although, as this paper will demonstrate, in its best understood but narrow definition, it hasfailed to make much operational impact.
The UCLA burglary hotspot model, introduced in [M. B. Short, M. R. D'Orsogna, V. B. Pasour, G. E. Tita, P. J. Brantingham, A. L. Bertozzi, and L. B. Chayes, Math. Models Methods Appl. Sci., 18 (2008), pp. 1249-1267], models the formation of hotspots of criminal activity. In this paper, we extend the UCLA model to incorporate a more realistic model of human locomotion. The movement of the criminal agents follows a biased Levy flight with step sizes distributed according to a power-law distribution. The biased Brownian motion of the original model is then derived as a special case. Starting with an agent-based model, we derive its continuum limit. This consists of two equations and involves the fractional Laplacian operator. A numerical method based on the fast Fourier transform is used to simulate the continuum model; these simulations compare favorably with the direct numerical simulations of the agent-based model. A Turing-type analysis is performed to estimate how the instability of the homogeneous steady state, as well as the expected number of hotspots, depends on the system parameters and especially the exponent of the underlying power law. The assumptions of the underlying agent-based model naturally lead to a separation of scales of the diffusion coefficients in the continuum limit. Using these assumptions, we asymptotically construct the leading-order profile of the localized hotspot of criminal activity.
Research in the area of geographic criminology repeatedly found that most offenders commit their crimes near home and that crime wanes with distance. This has been called the distance decay pattern and counts as one of criminology’s stylized facts. However, such conclusions are mostly drawn from official crime data, which do not constitute a random sample of crime in general. If police have difficulties catching more mobile offenders, we may in fact be measuring the distance decay pattern of police operations instead of offending behaviour. In this paper, we use agent-based modelling (ABM) to study under what conditions distance decay is generated or strengthened. Using awareness space as the basic assumption of our model, we study: 1) its relation to distance decay; 2) the influence of different forms of police communication on the same distance decay pattern; and 3) whether aggregate distance decay has to correspond with intra-individual patterns of distance decay.
Most crimes are committed near to where the offender lives; this has been observed both at the aggregate and at the offender level. At the aggregate level, as the distance increases there is a decline in the number of offences committed, and initially this decline is quite slow. This pattern has been described by a number of researchers, and results in a distance decay curve. Near-home offending has also been observed at the level of the individual offender, although it has been debated whether distance decay actually exists at the level of the individual offender. We therefore believe it is important to distinguish near-home offending from decay, i.e. the gradual decline in offences as distances increase. This paper studies mobility patterns and decay curves on serious property crimes in Belgium. First, aggregated patterns are discussed and categorised. Second, individual offenders are analysed. It becomes clear through studying offender patterns that offender mobility and decay are not intertwined at the individual level to the same extent as they are at the aggregate level. This suggests that it is important, particularly when studying individual offenders, to clarify whether (average) distances or decay are being considered.
The differences in crime scene actions in cases of stranger rape committed by convicted offenders were examined between 31 single-victim rapists and 35 serial rapists. Data were collected from police files, court verdicts, psychiatric evaluations, and criminal records. Findings indicate that the serial rapists were more criminally sophisticated than the single-victim rapists, during their first and second rapes. The single-victim rapists were significantly more likely to engage in the interpersonal involvement behavior of kissing the victim, and to engage in pre-assault alcohol use, than the serial rapists. There was, however, no significant difference in physically violent or sexual behaviors. To investigate the possibility of predicting rapist type, logistic regression analyses were performed. Results indicate that three behaviors in conjunction, kissed victim, controlled victim, and offender drank alcohol before the offense, predicted whether an unknown offender is a single-victim or serial rapist with a classification accuracy of 80.4%. The findings have implications for the classification of stranger rapists in offender profiling. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Geographical profiling is an investigative methodology sometimes employed by the police to predict the residence of an unknown offender from the locations of his/her crimes. The validity of geographical profiling, however, has not been fully explored for certain crime types. This study, therefore, presents a preliminary test of the potential for geographical profiling with a sample of 145 serial vehicle thieves from the U.K. The behavioural assumptions underlying geographical profiling (distance decay and domocentricity) are tested and a simple practical test of profiling using the spatial mean is presented. There is evidence for distance decay but not domocentricity among the spatial behaviour of car thieves from the U.K. A degree of success was achieved when applying the spatial mean on a case-by-case basis. The level of success varied, however, and neither series length in days nor number of crimes could account for the variation. The findings question previously held assumptions regarding geographical profiling and have potential theoretical and practical implications for the study and investigation of vehicle theft in the U.K. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
The analysis of the uneven spatial distribution of crime has been an important area of research investigation and policy analysis for the past several decades. These analyses typically use spatial analytical methods that are based on the assumption of Euclidean (straight-line) distance. However, crime like most social activity is often mediated by the built environment, such as along a street or within a multi-story building. Thus, analyzing spatial patterns of crime with only straight-line Euclidean distance measurement ignores this intervening built landscape and may very possibly introduce error into the ensuing result. The purpose of this research is to compare and contrast the differences in analytical results for spatial analysis techniques that have the capability to use either Euclidean or network distance. Voronoi diagrams which can be implemented utilizing either Euclidean distance or network distance (distance measured along a street) offer a means for performing this comparison. Utilizing Voronoi diagram implementations with Euclidean distance and network distance this thesis will examine the spatial distribution of gun-inflicted homicide locations and the similarity/differences between the results of their application with the aim of informing the spatial analysis of street located homicide.
This study examines the effect of the number of crimes and topographical detail on police officer predictions of serial burglars’ home locations. Officers are given 36 maps depicting three, five, or seven crime sites and topographical or no topographical details. They are asked to predict, by marking an X on the map, where they thought each burglar lived. After making their predictions on half of the maps, officers randomly receive either no training or training in one of two simple decision-making strategies. The accuracy of predictions at baseline and retest is measured as the distance between the predicted and actual home locations, and these accuracy scores are compared to a commonly used geographic profiling system. Results show that training significantly improved predictive accuracy, regardless of the number of crime locations or topographical detail presented. In addition, trained participants are as accurate as the geographic profiling system.
The accuracy with which human judges, before and after 'training', could predict the likely home location of serial offenders was compared with predictions produced by a geographic profiling system known as Dragnet. All predictions were derived from ten spatial displays, one for each of ten different U.S. serial murderers, indicating five crime locations. In all conditions participants were asked to place an 'X' on each spatial display corresponding to where they thought the offender lived. In the control condition, a comparison was made between the accuracy of these predictions for 21 participants on two separate occasions a few minutes apart. In the experimental condition, between their first and second predictions the 21 participants were given two heuristics to follow--distance-decay and circle hypothesis. Results showed that participants with no previous knowledge of geographic profiling were able to use the two heuristics to improve the accuracy of their predictions. The overall accuracy of the second set of predictions for the experimental group was also not significantly different from the accuracy of predictions generated by Dragnet.
Preliminary to the development of a stimulus-mediating response model of aggressive drive, formal definitions are given of instrumental aggressive acts and aggressive drive-mediated behavior. In defining aggressive drive, a distinction is made between expressive aggression and hostile aggression which is illustrated in the difference between the desire to "hit" and the desire to "hurt." Hostile aggression is assumed to be a learned drive whose primary antecedents are past exposure to punishment and present threats to self-esteen. Several procedures for reducing aggression other than performance of an aggressive response are described and the function of diverse measures responsive to changes in expressive aggression, aggressive drive, and aggressive response strength, particularly when evaluating the consequences of an aggressive act, are analyzed. (2 p. ref.)
Crime occurrence is not the direct result of motivation, but is mediated by perceived opportunity. This, in turn, is influenced by the actual distribution of opportunities, urban form and mobility. It is argued that criminals are not random in their behaviour, so it should be possible to predict the spatial distribution of crime and explain some of the variation in volume of crime between urban areas and between cities by exploring urban structure and how people interact within it. Several hypothetical examples are provided. -after Authors
This is the latest version of the CrimeStat spatial statistics program.
Analyzed how the rapist's travel behavior varies with the method of approach (e.g., kidnap/attack) and the number of reported rapes committed by the same offender. Data were obtained on 320 lone-assailants, including 156 single rapes and 164 serial rapes committed by 39 offenders. Results show that serial offenders tended to be strangers and showed a strong preference for blitz methods, while singles showed a stronger preference for the confidence approaches. Results indicate that the method of approach was a more significant contributor to rape-distance variation than type of offender. Single and serial offenders traveled the shortest distances to commit rapes using the illegal entry of residence method. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
One of the most problematic aspects of predatory violent crime is the volume of tips and suspects generated through their investigation. Traditional police methods are not always sufficient and detectives need alternative tactics to assist them in these types of cases. Geographic profiling, a strategic information management system designed to support investigative efforts in cases of serial murder, rape and arson, is one such approach. Other topics discussed include: introduction; investigative difficulties; geographic profiling; and conclusion. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
The “journey to crime,” or the study of the distance between an offender's residence and offense site, has been a subject of study within criminology for many years. Implications arising from such research touches the majority of criminological theories. An overriding conclusion from this line of research is that most crimes occur in relatively close proximity to the home of the offender. Termed the distance-decay function, a plot of the number of crimes that an offender commits decreases with increasing distance from the offender's residence. In a recent paper, Van Koppen and De Keijser raise the concern that inferring individual distance decay from aggregate-level data may be inappropriate. They assert that previous research reporting aggregated distance-decay functions conceals individual variations in the ranges of operation, which leads them to conclude that the distance-decay function is an artifact. We do not question the claim that researchers should not make inferences about individual behavior with data collected at the aggregate level. However, Van Koppen and De Keijser's analysis raises four important issues concerning (1) the interpretation of the ecological fallacy, (2) the assumption of linearity in offender movements, (3) the interpretation of geographic work on profiling, and (4) the assumption of random target selection within a delimited range of operation. Using both simulated and nonsimulated data, we present evidence that reaches vastly different conclusions from those reached by Van Koppen and De Keijser. The theoretical implications of our analyses and possibilities for future research are addressed.
Residential location of a serial offender can potentially be predicted by using models created from home to crime site journeys of solved crimes in the area [N. Levine, Journey-to-crime estimation, retrieved 23 October 2003 from http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/NACJD/crimestat/CrimeStatChapter.9.pdf, last visited 1 February 2005]. Aims of this study were: (1) to examine the accuracy of this technique, (2) to explore relation of modus operandi (m.o.) to the distance the crime was committed from home and (3) to analyse whether the accuracy of prediction is enhanced by taking the m.o. into account. Data consisted of 76 commercial robbery series from the Greater Helsinki area. Accuracy of prediction was tested by using leave-one-out technique: the series which the predicting function was applied to was never part of the function used to predict. The functions allowed limiting the area to be searched to 4.7% (Mdn, IQR = 31.0%) of the study area generally, and to 1.0% (Mdn, IQR = 2.6%) when the suspect's spatial behaviour conformed to the circle hypotheses presented by Canter and Larkin [D. Canter, P. Larkin, The environmental range of serial rapists, J. Environ. Psychol. 13 (1993) 63-69]. Significant correlations between m.o. and the length of the journey-to-crime were found, but this information did not enhance accuracy of prediction. Low percentage of marauder style perpetrators in the data gives support to the possible separation of hypotheses of underlying spatial behaviour in instrumental crimes versus crimes of interpersonal violence or arson. Suggestions for development of investigative tools are presented.
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