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Abstract

Divorce rates are higher in cities. Based on Danish register data, this paper shows that of the marriages formed in the city, those couples who remain in the city have a 23% higher divorce rate than those who move out. In this paper, we test whether this observation is due to sorting of more stable marriages into rural areas or if there exists a causal effect of living in urban areas on marriage instability. Our identification strategy supplements the timing-of-events approach with an instrumental variable. Our findings suggest that the effect of living in an urban area on the divorce risks drops substantially and loses statistical significance once we address sorting.

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... Some scholars have begun to pay attention to the impact of population mobility on marriage. Glenn and Supancic [40], Landale and Ogena [41], Frank and Wildsmith [42], and Gautier et al. [43] all found that the divorce rate is usually high in areas with high migratory and floating populations. Caarls and Mazzucato [44] found that the likelihood of divorcing is higher when a wife (without her husband's escort) works abroad, but lower when the husband (without his wife's escort) works abroad. ...
... Urbanization is a trend that accompanies economic and social development, frequent population movements, and advanced human civilization. Urban areas, where modern industrial agglomeration occurs and industrial civilizations are developed, may have higher divorce rates than rural areas [8,43,90]. Therefore, it is necessary to add urbanization level as a control variable for the divorce rate in China. For ease of calculation, this study used the proportion of urban residents within the total population to measure the level of urbanization. ...
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Marital happiness is an important symbol of social harmony and can help promote sustainable economic and social development. In recent years, the rapid rise of the divorce rate in China, a country where the divorce rate had previously been low, has attracted wide attention. However, few articles have focused on the popularization of information and communication technology's impact on China’s rising divorce rate in recent years. As a first attempt, the provincial panel data during the period 2001–2016 is applied to study quantitatively the relationship between mobile phone penetration and the divorce rate. In order to get more reliable estimation results, this paper uses two indicators to measure the divorce rate, and quantile regression is applied for further analysis. Additionally, one-year to five-year lag times of the mobile phone penetration are used as the core explanatory variables in order to analyse the lagging effect of mobile phone penetration on divorce rate. The result shows that the correlation between the mobile phone penetration and the divorce rate was statistically positive significant in China during the period 2001–2016. Furthermore, the paper also finds that mobile phone penetration had the greatest impact on divorce rate in central China, followed by eastern China, but it was not obvious in western China during this period. From a technological perspective, this paper provides some possible explanations for the rising divorce rate in China in recent years, and further enriches the relevant research on the impact of the development of information and communication technology on societal changes.
... • In population economics; marriage, divorce, and fertility dynamics have been analyzed in relation to family policies [22]. ...
... The timing-of-events framework has been applied to many other problems. For example, Pieter Gautier, Michael Svarer and Coen Teulings observed that urban couples are far more likely to divorce than rural ones [22]. One hypothesis is that urban marriages are less stable because urban marriage markets offer many more opportunities for search on the match. ...
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... However, most of these parameters (such as education and education of the parents, age at marriage, income or the presence of children) affect wealth accumulation directly or indirectly, as well. Living in urban areas is likely to impair the stability of marriages (Gautier, Svarer and Teulings 2009). At the same time the incidence of owner-occupied property is lower, though. ...
... 36 As marital disruptions are more likely to occur in urban areas (e.g. Gautier, Svarer and Teulings 2009) the region of residence is included as a control variable. To 35 For an overview on factors that are expected to affect marital dissolution see Finke and Pierce (2006, p. 228 et seq.), ...
Thesis
Despite of the particular importance of wealth as a measure of economic well-being and the various functions of wealth, its distribution on the individual level as well as the reasons for inequality in wealth holdings in Germany have not been fully explored. Marital splits constitute a potential shock in relation to wealth: divorce is likely to reduce wealth holdings directly via court and lawyer fees and family status correlates with the determinants of wealth like income or consumption. To identify the relation between divorce and wealth in Germany, this study employs wealth data on the individual level provided by the German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP) which also collects (retrospective) information on martial histories. To account for the reversed causality between divorce and wealth, conditional difference-in-differences matching methods are applied. Empirical results indicate that wealth and divorce are negatively related. However, the analysis provides some evidence that the effects observed are not actually causal – that divorce itself may not be considered to lead to a reduction of individual wealth holdings and hence to a reduction in economic well-being.
... Previous research has conclusively shown that couples living in urban areas have higher dissolution risks than those living in rural areas in both Sweden and other Western countries (Chester 1977;Gautier et al. 2009;Norval and Shelton 1985;Sandström 2011;White 1990: 905). Theoretically, this relationship can be explained in a number of ways. ...
Article
During the 1960s in Sweden, socioeconomic differentials decreased sharply and both the labor force participation of married women and aggregate divorce rates increased more rapidly than during any other period of the twentieth century. The aim of this paper is to investigate how the socioeconomic composition of the couple influenced the probability of divorce during this period of rapid restructuring. The study uses a large data set covering the entire married population of Sweden in 1960 and applies a binary model whereby the couples are analyzed as units rather than separate individuals to model divorce during the period from 1960 to1965. The main results show that the equalization process between genders and social classes during this period contributed to the decrease in marital stability. Dual-provider families exhibit substantially higher probabilities of divorce as compared to traditional single-provider families. We also find that the socioeconomic gradient of divorce had become negative by the early 1960s and that couples with low socioeconomic status contributed more to the increase in divorce than did couples in the higher strata. A difference between the results reached in this study and those from divorce research covering later decades is that children do not reduce the probability of divorce when the wife's labor force participation is controlled for. The results indicate that the determinants of divorce have varied across different phases of the divorce transition during the twentieth century and that a historical perspective is necessary if we are to understand the long-term process that has produced current marital behavior.
... Employment is considered secure and commendable and unemployment insecure and distasteful in the marriage calculus. The urbanization coefficientâ 4 , for its part, is insignificant, indicating that urbanization has no role in explaining MR. Gautier et al. (2009) show that large cities with dense populations serve a large MR market for single people who have migrated from rural areas and have more opportunities for a stable life. The ever-increasing urbanization and living standards are one of the upshots of the economic reforms. ...
Article
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This study reviews the threshold effect of house prices (HPs) on marriage (MR) in China by utilizing a panel threshold regression. The findings indicate that HPs have a positive impact on MR when the price is below the threshold value. Homeownership is an extremely important factor in MR in China, and MR without housing is considered incomplete. However, HPs have a negative effect on MR when the price is higher than the threshold value. Unemployment and female education have a negative effect on MR, while GDP per capita has a positive effect. These results are supported by the duration model, which shows that as HPs increase, the rate of MR decreases. The study makes a contribution on the asymmetric impact of high HPs on MR in China in the two regimes. The paper offers insight into the economic outlook on HPs and MR driven by societal and institutional changes, such as privatization and state ownership of enterprises, that have changed marriage behavior. Increasing HPs slow MR and may have a more serious impact on China than on other countries. The government should balance housing supply and demand by enhancing antimonopoly supervision in the private market. The government should establish policy measures to meet housing demand and create incentives to wed, which can relieve competition in marriage markets. Diversified investment, in turn, can control HPs.
... Slopen et al., 2016) ni bila povezana niti s številom OIO niti s tveganjem za posamezne OIO. Tudi kraj bivanja je igral vlogo pretežno le pri razvezi staršev/zapustitvi otroka, kar je skladno z dosedanjimi ugotovitvami, da je več razvez v urbanih okoljih (Gautier et al., 2009). ...
Article
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V Sloveniji smo leta 2019 na velikem panelnem vzorcu odraslih prebivalcev izvedli prvo študijo obremenjujočih izkušenj iz otroštva (OIO). V prispevku predstavljamo njihovo razširjenost, medsebojne povezave in socialno-demografsko ozadje. Več kot tri četrtine udeležencev je doživelo vsaj eno OIO, več kot četrtina pa štiri ali več OIO. Najpogostejši OIO, o katerih so poročali udeleženci, sta čustveno in fizično nasilje. Skladno s predhodnimi študijami so rezultati pokazali, da se različne OIO pogosto pojavljajo v kombinaciji ter so pogostejše v družinah z nizkim socialno-ekonomskim statusom. Dosedanje študije opozarjajo na pomemben učinek OIO na telesno, duševno in socialno funkcioniranje posameznikov skozi vse življenje, zato je nujno, da jih naslovimo s celovito nacionalno strategijo in izvedbenimi načrti v relevantnih sektorjih.
... Employment is considered secure and commendable and unemployment insecure and distasteful in the marriage calculus. The urbanization coefficientâ 4 , for its part, is insignificant, indicating that urbanization has no role in explaining MR. Gautier et al. (2009) show that large cities with dense populations serve a large MR market for single people who have migrated from rural areas and have more opportunities for a stable life. The ever-increasing urbanization and living standards are one of the upshots of the economic reforms. ...
Article
Full-text available
This study reviews the threshold effect of house prices (HPs) on marriage (MR) in China by utilizing a panel threshold regression. The findings indicate that HPs have a positive impact on MR when the price is below the threshold value. Homeownership is an extremely important factor in MR in China, and MR without housing is considered incomplete. However, HPs have a negative effect on MR when the price is higher than the threshold value. Unemployment and female education have a negative effect on MR, while GDP per capita has a positive effect. These results are supported by the duration model, which shows that as HPs increase, the rate of MR decreases. The study makes a contribution on the asymmetric impact of high HPs on MR in China in the two regimes. The paper offers insight into the economic outlook on HPs and MR driven by societal and institutional changes, such as privatization and state ownership of enterprises, that have changed marriage behavior. Increasing HPs slow MR and may have a more serious impact on China than on other countries. The government should balance housing supply and demand by enhancing antimonopoly supervision in the private market. The government should establish policy measures to meet housing demand and create incentives to wed, which can relieve competition in marriage markets. Diversified investment, in turn, can control HPs.
... Earlier economic studies on divorce generally report expected results regarding the impact of variables found to be important for the matching process into marriage. Differences in spouses' age and education increase the probability of divorce (Svarer, 2004;Gautier et al., 2009). Unexpected low earnings or differences in earnings between spouses are also *Corresponding author. ...
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The effect of spouse's premarital earnings capacity on the probability of divorce is examined. This study is based on longitudinal register data on married and cohabitating couples in Sweden. We use the residuals from estimated earnings equations of men and women based on observations before their marriage in estimation of a logit model of divorce. By using information on individuals as singles, we can identify the impact of relative earnings power on the probability of divorce, per se, without the confounding effect of the marital relationship. The results indicate that differences in spouse's conditional earnings capacities increase the probability of divorce.
... Kreyenfeld and Heintz-Martin (2011) find a higher prevalence of stepfamilies in western Germany (18%) compared to the share in eastern Germany (13%), while Raab (2017) shows that an alternative childhood family structure is only associated with early home-leaving in western Germany. A second confounder is the degree of urbanization, as divorce rates and the share of alternative families are higher in more urbanized areas (Gautier et al. 2009;Grünheid 2013). At the same time, socialization processes and life plans of young adults from urban areas differ from those from rural areas, affecting the timing of leaving home (Schimpl-Neimanns 2006). ...
Article
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Young adults from non-intact families are more likely to leave the parental home at an early age than are young adults from intact families. While this association is well established in the existing literature, the underling mechanisms remain puzzling. In a recent investigation with prospective data from the SOEP (van den Berg et al. in Eur J Popul 34(5):873–900, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-017-9461-1), a large share of the effect of family structure on early home-leaving remained unexplained, in particular for stepfamilies. This study draws on longitudinal data from the German Family Panel (pairfam) to replicate and extend the analyses of van den Berg et al. (Eur J Popul 34(5):873–900, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-017-9461-1). The quality of the stepfather–child relationship, as well as parental monitoring and support, is added to existing analyses. However, an extended assessment of social resources does not seem to substantially help explain the association between family structure and early home-leaving.
... The structural approach focuses on macrostructural processes to explain divorce. As society modernizes, through increased industrialization, urbanization, mass education, women's economic participation, and family structure, marriage and divorce patterns also undergo dramatic changes (Bodenmann et al., 2006;Gautier, Svarer, & Teulings, 2009;Goode, 1963;Hirschman & Teerawichitchainan, 2003;Jones, 1997;Preston & McDonald, 1979;Raymo, Fukuda, & Iwasawa, 2013). From the structural perspective, we hypothesize that education and the wife's employment will be positively related to acceptability of and propensity toward divorce (Hypotheses 1.1 & 1.2). ...
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Divorce has been increasing worldwide, even in societies where religious impediments to it are strongest. In the Islamic Republic of Iran, divorce rates have risen rapidly since the mid-1990s. In this article, we investigate the attitude and propensity of young Iranians toward divorce and relate these attitudes and propensities to structural and ideational factors. The data are drawn from a survey of 720 married people ages 15 to 29 conducted in the city of Tehran in 2014. The results show that almost half of respondents approved of divorce as a solution for marital problems and one fifth of them have high propensity to divorce. Multivariate analyses indicate that approval of and high propensity toward divorce are significantly associated with ideational factors—namely individualism, secularism, and gender egalitarian views—and structural factors—including education, wife’s employment, and household economic insecurity—even after controlling for demographic variables. We discuss the implications of these findings for the understanding of marital stability in this rapidly changing context.
... This seems to suggest that in rural areas people tend to get and stay married for cultural reasons, while in urban locations a larger percentage may choose to remain single or be separated or divorced. [18] Differences in marital status in our context are significant, as our study has shown that widowed and single participants face different CVD risk. ...
Article
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Background: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are a challenge to populations and health systems worldwide. It is projected that by 2020 about a third of all deaths globally will be caused by CVDs, and that they will become the single leading cause of death by 2030. Empirical evidence suggests that there is socioeconomic patterning in the distribution and prevalence of risk factors for CVD, but the exact nature of this relationship in South Africa remains unclear. Objective: To examine the association between socioeconomic status (SES) and risk factors for CVD in a cohort of adult South Africans living in rural and urban communities. Method: This was a cross-sectional analytical study of baseline data on a population-based cohort of 1 976 SA men and women aged 35 - 70 years who were part of the Cape Town arm of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) Study. Results: We found a complex association between SES and CVD risk factors, its pattern differing between urban and rural participants. Marital status showed the most consistent association with CVD risk in both groups: widowed participants living in urban communities were more likely to be hypertensive as well as diabetic, while single participants in both locations were more likely to use alcohol and tobacco products. Level of education was the only SES variable that had no significant association with any CVD risk factor in either study group. All measured SES variables were significantly different between urban and rural participants (p<0.05), with diabetes, obesity and alcohol use significantly more prevalent in urban than in rural participants (p<0.05) while hypertension and tobacco use were not (p≥0.05). Conclusions: In this cohort of South Africans, there were significant associations between SES and CVD risk, with marked differences in these associations between rural and urban locations. These findings highlight the need to consider SES and area of residence when designing interventions for CVD prevention and control.
... The dummy reflects the effects of law reforms on the divorce rates. The urbanization variable (urban) reflects the fact that divorce rates are usually higher in the cities (see, e.g., Gautier et al. 2009) than in the country side. There is also an additional variable (old) in the regression which takes into account the share of the elderly population. ...
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This paper examines the relationship between alcohol consumption and divorces in 23 OECD countries from 1960 to 2010. We employ the differenced fixed-effect panel regression and panel vector error-correction models. We establish a significant unidirectional Granger causality from alcohol consumption to divorce rates across countries. Furthermore, we discover a long-run equilibrium relation between divorce rates and alcohol consumption. The results are robust, since they do not change even if we include other socioeconomic factors in the regression.
Article
Family formation has been substantially delayed in recent decades, and birth rates have fallen below the replacement rates in many OECD countries. Research suggests that these trends are tightly linked to recent changes in the labor market; however, little is known about the role played by increases in job insecurity. In this paper, I investigate whether the type of employment, stable or temporary, affects the timing of cohabitation and fertility. Using French data on the work and family history of large samples of young adults, I provide evidence that being permanently employed has a much stronger effect than being in temporary employment on the probability of entering a first cohabiting relationship as well as on the probability of having a first child. These findings suggest that increases in age at first cohabitation and at first child can partly be explained by the rise in unemployment and in the share of temporary jobs among young workers.
Article
The institutions of family and marriage may seem beyond the remit of economics, involving complexities which the discipline could only ever assume away. There is, however, a significant body of research, which applies the adaptable economists’ toolbox to these areas of life, often yielding a significant degree of insight. Gary Becker’s seminal Treatise on the Family, one of the first studies to subject decisions about sex, marriage, childbearing and childrearing to economic analysis, employed concepts such as the maximisation of family, or household, utility functions to explain family collective choice, with later authors using game theoretic models to offer a different perspective on the intra-household distribution of goods. However, the well-documented phenomenon of urban areas having higher divorce rates than rural regions is not addressed by existing family economics literature, despite the importance of such trends to social policy planners. We develop a new model that provides a theoretical basis for the difference in rural and urban divorce rates, drawing on insights from labour economics and social psychology that have not previously been applied to family economics.
Article
The aims of this study were to examine spatial variation in the risk of union dissolution (divorce or separation) and to investigate the causes of this variation. Although there is an increased interest in variations in divorce and separation across countries, surprisingly, few studies have examined the spatial variation in the levels of union disruption within countries. Using rich retrospective survey data from Austria, we examined the relative contributions of demographic and socio-economic characteristics, selective migrations, and contextual factors to spatial variation in the risk of union dissolution. Our study showed, first, that union dissolution levels varied significantly across counties, as expected. Second, geographical differences in the type of union (cohabitation or marriage) accounted for some spatial variation in the risk of separation. Third, the socio-economic characteristics of couples and selective migrations did not explain any of the spatial variations in the union dissolution levels. Fourth, a significant spatial variation in separation and divorce after controlling for compositional factors suggested that there were also contextual factors. We examined the role of various contextual characteristics for explaining spatial variation in divorce and separation, including the level of urbanisation, economic well-being of an area, and characteristics measuring the cultural-normative climate of a region. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Article
In this article, I propose a three-stage estimation model to examine the effect of parental divorce on the development of children’s cognitive skills and noncognitive traits. Using a framework that includes pre-, in-, and post-divorce time periods, I disentangle the complex factors affecting children of divorce. I use the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class 1998 to 1999 (ECLS-K), a multiwave longitudinal dataset, to assess the three-stage model. To evaluate the parameters of interest more rigorously, I employ a stage-specific ordinary least squares (OLS) model, a counterfactual matching estimator, and a piece-wise growth curve model. Within some combinations of developmental domains and stages, in particular from the in-divorce stage onward, I find negative effects of divorce even after accounting for selection factors that influence children’s skills and traits at or before the beginning of the dissolution process. These negative outcomes do not appear to intensify or abate in the ensuing study period.
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Previous research shows significant health and mortality variations by residential context. Numerous studies report better health and lower mortality among rural populations in comparison to urban residents, whereas other research shows the opposite, with poor health and high mortality in rural areas. This study investigates health variations in England by residential contexts and the causes of such differences. Further, it examines the sensitivity of results to different rural-urban classifications. Applying logistic regression models to individual-level data from the 2001 UK census we demonstrate significant health variation by residential context. A clear urban-rural positive health gradient is apparent, with levels of ill health increasing parallel to levels of urbanisation. Briefly, people living in rural areas have better health than those living in cities and other urban contexts. However, the capital city (London) provides an exception to the gradient, with its inhabitants having better health than anticipated. Once we control for individual sociodemographic characteristics, including occupational status and educational level, the urban-rural health variations are reduced, but significant differences still persist. Most notably, Outer London residents have health expectations similar to those residing in the most rural locations. Clearly, our results support the existence of a positive urban-rural health gradient, with the exception of a protective "capital city" effect. These findings persist regardless of the precise urban-rural classification used. Finally we show that, having accounted for composition and the rural-urban context, there still remains a North-South divide in health outcomes.
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According to social disorganization theory, a well-developed family and community structure is a pre-condition for low crime rates. Using annual data for 16 advanced countries constructed for two centuries, this paper examines the extent to which the changing family and community structures over the past two centuries have influenced the evolution of crime. Furthermore, we test whether a weakened family structure has a stronger effect on crime in communities with weak social networks by allowing for the interaction between urbanization (community network) and divorce rates (family network). Broadly, we find that changes in family and community structures and their interaction have been influential for the evolution of crime rates since 1810.
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The Nordic countries are often put forward as forerunners in the acceptance of permissive divorce practices and in the shift away from a patriarchal family system during the twentieth century. This special issue focuses on the long term historical path dependencies that make Nordic institutions and norms regarding divorce stand out as liberal and individualistic in an international comparison, but also shed new light on the differences that exist between the countries. Specific traits that are raised is the role played by the shared Lutheran culture that facilitated the breakthrough of a secular notion of marriage as a civil contract, but also the important role played by the first wave feminist movement in all of the Nordic countries for the early breakthrough of liberal divorce laws. However, it is clear that permissive norms and institutions have tended to spread in two distinct waves with leaders and laggards within the Nordic context. In the early twentieth century, Denmark and Norway spearheaded the shift to bi-lateral no-fault divorce. In the 1970s, Sweden took over as the leader when the country adopted unilateral no-fault divorce while Finland consistently has tended to stand out as the conservative laggard within the Nordic context.
Article
Divorce and family dissolution are global issues linked to various socioeconomic, demographic, and spatial variables. In the last decade, the divorce rate has increased dramatically across the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states (Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia). Rapid economic development, social transformation, and modernization have directly led to deep cultural changes in marriage and marital instability. Although the geographic perspectives of family formation and divorce risks have received considerable global attention, the spatial variations of divorce rates have not been examined across Arab countries or GCC communities. This study uses univariate and bivariate local indicators of spatial association (LISA) as well as Moran’s I and spatial econometric regression models (spatial lag and spatial error) to examine the geographic distribution of divorce rates in Oman at a subnational level. Data sets from the 2010 census were used for the modeling and geospatial analysis and a range of statistical variables, including women’s employment, female educational levels, urban residence, economically inactive females, and polygamous marriage, was examined. Spatial autocorrelation patterns and clusters of divorce rate associations were calculated and causal influences of sociodemographic characteristics on divorce were modeled. The findings revealed that the effects of sociodemographic variables on divorce and family instability across Omani subnational boundaries vary spatially. Hence, urban, suburban, and rural differences are significant predictors explaining the outcomes of family dissolution. There were high divorce rates, particularly in the northwest and northeast areas. Females’ educational level was a negative predictor of divorce, whereas other variables were positively correlated with divorce rates. Although many global nonspatial studies have investigated divorce rates, there is a lack of research on family formation and dissolution in the Arab world and GCC states. This study fills the gap in the literature by contributing to the understanding of the role that the spatial structure of various sociodemographic variables plays in affecting divorce rates within local Omani communities.
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This paper develops and tests a model where cities play an important role as marriage markets. The idea is simple. Cities are dense areas where singles can meet more potential partners than in rural areas. To enjoy those benefits, they are willing to pay a premium in terms of higher housing prices. Once married, the benefits from meeting more potential partners vanish and married couples move out of the city. Attractive singles benefit most from a dense market and are therefore more likely to move to the city. Those predictions are tested and confirmed with a unique Danish data set.
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Do people move to cities because of marriage market considerations? In cities singles can meet more potential partners than in rural areas. Singles are therefore prepared to pay a premium in terms of higher housing prices. Once married, the marriage market benefits disappear while the housing premium remains. We extend the model of Burdett and Coles (1997) with a distinction between efficient (cities) and less efficient (non-cities) search markets. One implication of the model is that singles are more likely to move from rural areas to cities while married couples are more likely to make the reverse movement. A second prediction of the model is that attractive singles benefit most from a dense market (i.e. from being choosy). Those predictions are tested with a unique Danish dataset.
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College educated couples are increasingly located in large metropolitan areas. These areas were home to 32 percent of all college educated couples in 1940, 39 percent in 1970, and 50 percent in 1990. We investigate whether this trend can be explained by increasing urbanization of the college educated or the growth of dual career households and the resulting severity of the colocation problem. We argue that the latter explanation is the primary one. Smaller cities may therefore experience reduced inflows of human capital relative to the past and thus become poorer.
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In this paper, we study the relationship between fertility behavior and the process of relationship duration. The potential endogeneity of fertility on dissolution risk is taken into account by modeling fertility and dissolution jointly. We apply the timing-of-event method (Abbring and van den Berg, Econometrica 71(5):1491–1517, 2003) to identify the causal effect of births on the dissolution hazard. We show that couples who are less prone to split up are more prone to invest in children, and therefore, one might (mistakenly) conclude that children stabilize relationships. However, when correcting for the selectivity bias arising from the fertility decision, we conclude that children themselves have a negative effect on relationship duration.
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In recent years, the incidence of premarital cohabitation has increased dramatically in many countries of Western Europe and in the United States. As cohabitation becomes a more common experience, it is increasingly important to understand the links between cohabitation and other steps in the process of family formation and dissolution. We focus on the relationship between pre- marital cohabitation and subsequent marital stability, and analyze data from the 1981 Women in Sweden survey using a hazards model approach. Our results indicate that women who premaritally cohabit have almost 80 percent higher marital dissolution rates than those who do not cohabit. Women who cohabit for over three years prior to marriage have over 50 percent higher dissolution rates than women who cohabit for shorter durations. Last, cohabitors and non-cohabitors whose marriages have remained intact for eight years appear to have identical dissolution rates after that time. In addition, we provide evidence that strongly suggests a weaker commitment, on the part of those who cohabit premaritally, to the institution of marriage.
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Various studies report an inverse association between socio-economic status and the risk of marital disruption. Using register-based follow-up data on first marriages in Finland intact at the end of 1990 and divorces in 1991-93 (n=21 309), this study aimed at gaining a better understanding of socio-economic differentials in divorce risk by disentangling the influences of various aspects of the socio-economic status of the spouses. Indicators of socioeconomic status include each spouse's education, occupational class, economic activity, and income as well as housing tenure and housing density. When examined individually, divorce risk was inversely associated with socio-economic status for all its various indicators except wife's income. All of these factors had an independent effect on divorce risk. The effect was, however, weak for the spouses' occupational rankings and housing density, and it was positive for the wife's income. Given the multifaceted nature of these socio-economic differentials, it appears unlikely that one single explanation could account for them all.
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The thesis of this textbook is that the family is in transition from an institution to a companionship. The emphasis is on the family as a unity of interacting persons that shapes the personality development of its members and is itself adaptable to change. The ideal-type method is employed; there is an extensive use of personal documents. Part I, The Family in Social Change, presents the changing family patterns in five different situations. Part II, The Family and Personality Development, discusses the ways in which interaction within the family stimulates or frustrates the personality growth of its members. It considers the effects on personality development of cultural and psychogenic conditioning within the family; the effects of parental expectations on children; and the role of the family in determining how fundamental wishes will find expression. Part III, Family Organization, discusses courtship and mate selection, marital success and adjustment, and family unity, emphasizing the interaction of family members as a vital element. Part IV, Family Disorganization and Reorganization, treats disorganization as a result of transition in the family and the larger society. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)
Article
As a family form, cohabitation in the U.S. is relatively recent. Research on cohabitation in the social sciences is also relatively new, beginning largely in 1988 with the National Survey of Families and Households. Since the early 1980s, cohabitation rates have increased in the U.S., as has a growing body of research on this family form. This paper summarizes the primary social science research since the 1990s and provides a social demographic look at current cohabitation patterns in the U.S. Census estimates indicate that in 1977 there were 1.1 million cohabiting couples, about 1.5% of all households in the U.S. Twenty years later in 1997, the number of cohabiting households had grown to 4.9 million couples or 4.8% of all households. Demographic studies indicate that this increase in cohabitation has occurred across all education levels and race and ethnic groups. Cohabitation is now found in almost all segments of American society. Although more couples are cohabiting than in the past, cohabitation still remains a relatively short-lived family form. Most cohabiting couples marry or separate within two years. For those with plans to marry, cohabitation is an extension of the courtship process ? a prelude to marriage. More than half of first unions formed in the U.S. are now preceded by cohabitation. Some research suggests that cohabiting couples with plans to marry are similar to married couples in terms of the quality of their relationship. However, divorce rates are still higher for couples cohabiting prior to marriage than for couples that marry without cohabitation. Demographic studies estimate that almost half of cohabiting households have children and that cohabiting couples comprise about one fourth of all stepfamilies. Thus, cohabitation as a family form influences not only the adult couple, but in many cases, also the well-being of children. Children in cohabiting households are generally economically better off than children in single, female-headed households, however, they have much higher poverty rates than children in married families. Cohabiting couples account for much of the increase in nonmarital childbearing in the U.S., however this varies by race and ethnicity. A lack of permanence and commitment between partners are primary features distinguishing cohabitation from marriage. Several studies have concluded that cohabitation is selective of individuals with a lower commitment to the institution of marriage and who are more accepting of divorce. In addition, cohabitors are less religious than those who marry and express a stronger sense of individualism. Cohabiting couples report more violence than married couples, and cohabitors are less sexually exclusive then married partners. For many couples cohabitation provides an alternative to marriage. These cohabiting unions take various forms depending on economic well-being and ethnicity. Many couples choose cohabitation over marriage because they lack economic stability. Among the less educated and those with low-incomes, cohabitation is generally a substitute for the long-term commitment of formal marriage. Cohabitation, however, has also increased among the more educated. In particular women who highly value their careers and men who value leisure are more likely to cohabit than their counterparts. Studies indicate that couples in these types of cohabiting unions emphasize equality between partners especially in terms of income. Thus, cohabiting couples are more likely to embrace egalitarian individualism, as opposed to married couples that tend to emphasize collectivism and specialization.
Article
The recent increase in American divorce rates has aroused a great deal of media publicity, popular discussion, and social science research. Several recent works have begun to reexamine the origins, trends, and implications of divorce in American history. This paper presents systematic data concerning the extent of divorce in three North Central states for the 1810–60 period. The findings establish the incidence of mass divorce for a considerable period prior to official divorce statistics. Major patterns are analyzed and compared to late 19th-century data from the first governmental studies of divorce for the 1870–1900 decades. While some urban-rural differences are found, changing laws and norms played the principal role in the increase in divorce rates during the 1800s. The final part of the paper discusses the implications of these findings for understanding marital disruption in social-historical perspective.
Article
In this paper we provide an empirical investigation of the association between premarital cohabitation and subsequent risk of divorce. Theoretically couples who cohabit before marriage should have a lower subsequent risk of divorce since cohabitation enables you to gather information about the match quality, and only good matches evolve into marriage. However, a considerable number of papers have come to the complete opposite conclusion. The counter-intuitive result has been justified with self-selection of cohabitants as the main argument. In the present paper, we provide new evidence concerning the relationship between premarital cohabitation and divorce.
Article
We analyze models where agents search for partners to form relationships (employment, marriage, etc.), and may or may not continue searching for different partners while matched. Matched agents are less inclined to search if their match yields more utility, and also if it is more stable. If one partner searches the relationship is less stable, so the other is more inclined to search, potentially making instability a self-fulfilling prophecy. We show this can generate multiple -- indeed, a continuum of -- equilibria. We investigate efficiency and show that in any equilibrium there tends to be too much turnover, unemployment, and inequality. We calibrate an example to see how well the model can account for job-to-job transitions, and to see how much endogenous instability matters.
Article
Next, we examine models for multiple durations. In the applied econometric literature on the estimation of multiple-duration models, the range of different models is actually not very large. Typically, the models allow for dependence between the duration variables by way of their unobserved determinants, with each single duration following its own MPH model. In addition to this, the model may allow for an interesting “causal” effect of one duration on the other, as motivated by an underlying economic theory. For all these models we examine the conditions for identification. Some of these are intimately linked to particular estimation strategies. The multiple-duration model where the marginal duration distributions each satisfy an MPH specification, and the durations can only be dependent by way of their unobserved determinants, is called the Multivariate Mixed Proportional Hazard (MMPH) model. For this model, we address the issue of the dimensionality of the heterogeneity distribution and we compare the flexibility of different parametric heterogeneity distributions.
Article
This paper focuses on the causes of marital instability. Section I develops a theoretical analysis of marital dissolution, incorporating uncertainty about outcomes of marital decisions into a framework of utility maximization and the marriage market. Section II explores implications of the theoretical analysis with cross-sectional data, primarily the 1967 Survey of Economic Opportunity and the Terman sample. The relevance of both the theoretical and empirical analyses in explaining the recent acceleration in divorce rates is also discussed.
Article
I assess the long-run implications for children of growing up in a unilateral divorce environment, which increases the ease of divorce by not requiring the explicit consent of both partners. Using 40 years of census data to exploit the variation across states and over time in changes in divorce regulation, I confirm that unilateral divorce regulations do significantly increase the incidence of divorce. Adults who were exposed to unilateral divorce regulations as children are less well educated, have lower family incomes, marry earlier but separate more often, and have higher odds of adult suicide.
Article
This article investigates the role of surprises in marital dissolution. Surprises consist of changes in the predicted earning capacity of either spouse. Data from the National Longitudinal Study of the High School Class of 1972 is used. The authors find that an unexpected increase in the husband's earning capacity reduces the divorce hazard, while an unexpected increase in the wife's earning capacity raises the divorce hazard. Couples sort into marriage according to characteristics that are likely to enhance the stability of the marriage. The divorce hazard is initially increasing with the duration of marriage, and the presence of children and high levels of property stabilizes the marriage. Copyright 1997 by University of Chicago Press.
Article
"This paper develops an approach to simultaneity among hazard equations which is similar in spirit to simultaneous Tobit models. It introduces a class of continuous time models which incorporates two forms of simultaneity across related processes--when the hazard rate of one process depends (1) on the hazard rate of another process or (2) on the actual current state of or prior outcomes of a related multi-episode process. This paper also develops an approach to modeling the notion of 'multiple clocks' in which one process may depend on the duration of a related process, in addition to its own. Maximum likelihood estimation is proposed based on specific parametric assumptions. The model is developed in the context of and empirically applied to the joint determination of marital duration and timing of marital conceptions."
Article
We show that immigrant managers are substantially more likely to hire immigrants than are native managers. The finding holds when comparing establishments in the same 5-digit industry and location, when comparing different establishments within the same firm, when analyzing establishments that change management over time, and when accounting for within-establishment trends in recruitment patterns. The effects are largest for small and owner-managed establishments in the for-profit sector. Separations are more frequent when workers and managers have dissimilar origin, but only before workers become protected by EPL. We also find that native managers are unbiased in their recruitments of former co-workers, suggesting that information deficiencies are important. We find no effects on entry wages. Our findings suggest that a low frequency of immigrant managers may contribute to the observed disadvantages of immigrant workers.
Article
Estimates based on couples with dependent children in the first eight years of the British Household Panel Study (1991-98) indicate that changes in a couple's economic circumstances affect the probability that a partnership dissolves. In particular, unexpected improvements in finances substantially reduce the dissolution risk, which strongly supports the importance of new information in decisions concerning partnership dissolution. Measures of a couple's own expectations concerning their financial situation over the coming year have been used in conjunction with realised changes to gauge the impact of unexpected changes. The study also finds that the risk of partnership dissolution increases with the number of children. Copyright 2001 by Blackwell Publishing Ltd
Article
This paper analyzes the specification and identification of causal multivariate duration models. We focus on the case in which one duration concerns the point in time a treatment is initiated and we are interested in the effect of this treatment on some outcome duration. We define "no anticipation of treatment" and relate it to a common assumption in biostatistics. We show that (i) no anticipation and (ii) randomized treatment assignment can be imposed without restricting the observational data. We impose (i) but not (ii) and prove identification of models that impose some structure. We allow for dependent unobserved heterogeneity and we do not exploit exclusion restrictions on covariates. We provide results for both single-spell and multiple-spell data. The timing of events conveys useful information on the treatment effect. Copyright The Econometric Society 2003.
Article
For given observable parental characteristics, children with divorced or separated parents tend to perform less well at school than children living with their two parents. This result has been used to argue that softening divorce legislation might be bad for children. This might, however, just reflect a selection effect: parents who decide to separate are presumably parents who fight with each other, etc., and it is unclear whether children growing up in a high-conflict, two-parent family are better off than children with separated parents. In this Paper, I develop two identification strategies suggesting that the selection hypothesis is indeed relevant. First, I look at the school performance of children a couple of years before their parents separate, and I show that they are doing as bad as children already living with only one of their parents. Next, I exploit the large increase in separation rates following the 1975 divorce law reform (as well as cross-regional variations in divorce rates) to show that the performance gap of single-parent children is a declining function of the separation rate, with an elasticity close to -1. Taken together, my results suggest that parental conflicts (rather than separation per se) are bad for children, and that the distribution of conflict intensity between couples has been fairly stable over time and was not significantly affected by the change in divorce law.
Article
This paper presents an empirical test of two contrasting models of contracting in marital relationships. The major distinction between the two models concerns the role of information. The first model assumes that ex post information about the value of opportunities outside the relationship is symmetric. The second model assumes that information is asymmetric. Each assumption leads to different implications about the effects of rules allowing unilateral versus mutual divorce decisions on the probability of initiating and terminating the marriage and on the distribution of marital resources at divorce. Copyright 1986 by American Economic Association.
Ex Ante Divorce Probability and Investment in Marital-specific Assets: An Application to Home Ownership
  • T Sullivan
Sullivan, T. (1995), Ex Ante Divorce Probability and Investment in Marital-specific Assets: An Application to Home Ownership, Working Paper no. 95-5, University of Maryland.
Unstable Relationships, Frontiers of Macro-economics 1, Article 1 The Family from Institution to Com-panionship
  • K Burdett
  • R Imai
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Burdett, K., Imai, R. and Wright, R. (2004), Unstable Relationships, Frontiers of Macro-economics 1, Article 1. Burgess, E., Locke, H. J. and Thomes, M. M. (1963), The Family from Institution to Com-panionship, American Books, New York.
Commitment and Satisfaction in Romantic Associations: A Test of the Investment Model
R, C.E. (1980). " Commitment and Satisfaction in Romantic Associations: A Test of the Investment Model ", Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 16, 172-186.
A Search Model of Marriage and Divorce
C , T. (2003). "A Search Model of Marriage and Divorce", Review of Economic Dynamics, 6: 135-55.
Do Children Stabilize Danish Marriages?
S, M. M. V (2006). " Do Children Stabilize Danish Marriages? ", Forthcoming in Journal of Population Economics.
A Generalized Model of Commitment
D, S. (2005). " A Generalized Model of Commitment ", Mathematical Social Science, Forthcoming.
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B , N.G, A.K. B D.E. B (1988). "Commitment and the
Unstable Relationships
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