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Measuring the effectiveness of playing strategies at soccer

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Abstract

Using a notational system which records on-the-ball events taking place throughout a soccer match, the game can be broken down into a series of team possessions. To assess the effectiveness of a team possession, a quantitative variable is developed representing the probability of a goal being scored, minus the probability of one being conceded. This variable, called the yield, can be used to evaluate both the expected outcome of a team possession originating in a given situation, as well as the actual outcome of the possession. In this way, the effectiveness of different strategies occurring during the possession can be quantified and compared.
Measuring the Effectiveness of Playing Strategies at Soccer
Author(s): Richard Pollard and Charles Reep
Source:
The Statistician,
Vol. 46, No. 4 (1997), pp. 541-550
Published by: Blackwell Publishing for the Royal Statistical Society
Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2988603
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