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Nine Second‐Order National Elections–A Conceptual Framework for the Analysis of European Election Results
Abstract
The composition of the directly elected European Parliament does not precisely reflect the “real” balance of political forces in the European Community. As long as the national political systems decide most of what there is to be decided politically, and everything really important, European elections are additional national second-order elections. They are determined more by the domestic political cleavages than by alternatives originating in the EC, but in a different way than if nine first-order national elections took place simultaneously. This is the case because European elections occur at different stages of the national political systems' respective “electoral cycles”. Such a relationship between a second-order arena and the chief arena of a political system is not at all unusual. What is new here, is that one second-order political arena is related to nine different first-order arenas. A first analysis of European election results satisfactorily justifies the assumption that European Parliament direct elections should be treated as nine simultaneous national second-order elections.
... In den letzten vier Jahrzenten hat sich die Nebenwahlthese von Reif und Schmitt (1980) zu einem wichtigen Modell zur Analyse von Wahlen in Mehrebenensystemen entwickelt. Nach Ansicht der Autoren zählen neben den Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament auch Landtags-und Kommunalwahlen zur Kategorie der nationalen Nebenwahlen (Reif und Schmitt 1980, S. 8-9). ...
... Was bedeuten die Befunde insgesamt für den Nebenwahlcharakter von Kommunalwahlen? In Übereinstimmung mit der Nebenwahlthese (Reif und Schmitt 1980) legen die vorliegenden Ergebnisse einerseits die Einordnung von Kommunalwahlen als nationale Nebenwahlen nahe. In allen Bundesländern liegt die kommunale Wahlbeteiligung unter dem Niveau der Bundestagswahlen. ...
... B. Haußner und Leininger 2018; Hobolt und Hoerner 2020) oder die Gründung des Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht(Thomeczek 2024) können dementsprechend nicht berücksichtigt werden.Die Ergebnisse dieser Arbeit bieten dementsprechend eine Reihe von Anknüpfungspunkten für weitere Forschungsarbeiten. Auf Basis von Umfragedaten erscheint es sinnvoll vor dem Hintergrund der Nebenwahl-These(Reif und Schmitt 1980) diejenigen Wähler*innen zu identifizieren, die an nationalen Wahlen aber nicht an Kommunalwahlen teilnehmen. Vergleichende Analysen mit anderen Kommunalwahlen (bspw. ...
Zusammenfassung
Der Status von Kommunalwahlen ist in der Wahlforschung umstritten. So wurden Kommunalwahlen einerseits schon früh als nationale Nebenwahlen klassifiziert, andererseits deutet die Ausbildung lokalisierter Parteiensysteme daraufhin, dass es sich um einen Wahltyp sui generis handeln könnte. Das vorliegende Papier soll dazu beitragen, Klarheit bezüglich des Nebenwahlcharakters von Kommunalwahlen herzustellen. Dazu wird das Ausmaß der Beteiligungsdifferenz von Kommunal- und Bundestagswahlen in Deutschland analysiert und versucht, mögliche Einflussfaktoren zu identifizieren.
Es wird argumentiert, dass der Nebenwahlcharakter einer Kommunalwahl von lokalen Rahmenbedingungen abhängt. Konkret wird ein substantieller Einfluss der Bevölkerungsgröße, des Wahlsystems sowie des lokalen Parteiensystems auf die Höhe der Beteiligungsdifferenz postuliert. Die Ergebnisse zeigen einerseits, dass Kommunalwahlen Eigenschaften einer nationalen Nebenwahl aufweisen. In einer großen Mehrheit der Gemeinden ist die lokale Wahlbeteiligung unter dem Niveau der Beteiligung an nationalen Wahlen. Andererseits üben Kontextfaktoren wie das Wahlsystem, die Gemeindegröße und das lokale Parteiensystem einen Einfluss auf die Beteiligungsdifferenz aus. Nebenwahleigenschaften von Kommunalwahlen werden hierdurch relativiert. In kleinen Gemeinden nehmen Kommunalwahlen eher den Charakter einer eigenständigen Hauptwahl an, was in einer niedrigeren Beteiligungsdifferenz zum Ausdruck kommt. Nationalisierte Parteiensysteme und Wahlsysteme mit geschlossenen Listen wirken sich ebenfalls auf die Beteiligungsdifferenz aus. Das Papier leistet damit einen Beitrag zum Verständnis kommunaler Wahlbeteiligung und bietet eine Reihe von Anknüpfungspunkten für künftige Forschungsvorhaben.
... We suggest that given the relatively limited powers of the Icelandic president it is potentially rewarding to study Icelandic presidential elections as second order elections (SOE) (Reif & Schmitt 1980), reflecting prevailing views on national political parties and the government as much as the merits of different candidates and views on the presidency. Specifically, the expectation is generally that "governments lose" in SOEs. ...
... This shows that turnout was indeed lower in Iceland's first presidential elections in 1952 than in parliamentary elections in that period and much closer to turnout in local elections, which fits with a model of presidential elections a SOE. However, turnout in the 1968, 1980, 1996 elections was completely on par with parliamentary elections -which runs counter to the SOE model. In 1988In , 2004 and 2020, the incumbent president was running against challengers and in these elections, turnout was even lower than in local elections. ...
... In turn, the latter were much more likely to vote for the winner of the election, Halla Tómasdóttir. This is consistent with the argument that the 2024 presidential election in Iceland can be considered a second-order election, with attitudes towards (first-order) parliamentary politics playing a substantial role in shaping the outcome of the election (Reif & Schmitt 1980). Analysing voters' full preferences and their hypothetical voting behaviour under alternative voting systems further suggests that this second-order effect led to voters coordinating against her candidacy: a bloc of voters (about 10%) appears to have voted strategically for Tómasdóttir or (to a lesser extent) Logadóttir to prevent Jakobsdóttir from winning, and these voting intentions appear to have developed over the course of the campaign as these voters coordinated over different alternatives to Jakobsdóttir. ...
Icelandic presidential elections are under-studied in the field of political science. We examine the determinants of vote choice in the 2024 Icelandic presidential election and, in particular, whether the election can be characterised as a second- order election, where voters’ views about parliamentary politics are more important than their views on the presidency. We rely on data from four surveys focusing on various aspects of the 2024 election to investigate which factors were the most important drivers of vote choice, whether voters voted strategically against the candidate most associated with the incumbent government, and whether the election results might have been different under alternative voting systems. Our findings suggest that attitudes towards the national government were the strongest determinants of vote choice in the election and that strategic voting appears to have played an important role in shaping the outcome. However, views about the role of the president also played a role and the eventual winner, Halla Tómasdóttir, would likely have won under any of the voting systems considered. We conclude with a discussion of how our results affect interpretations of the Icelandic presidency and the presidential mandate.
... second-order theory) potiče iz osamdesetih godina 20. veka (videti: Reif & Schmitt, 1980). Fokus tadašnjih istraživanja bio je na lokalnim ili regionalnim glasanjima koja su se dešavala u toku ili sredinom aktuelnog mandata nacionalnog parlamenta i nacionalne vlade, te na analizi njihovih efekata u vezi sa nacionalnom političkom dinamikom. ...
... The second-order elections theory emerged in the 1980s (see: Reif & Schmitt, 1980). The focus of research at the time was on local or regional elections held during or mid-mandate of the national parliament and government, and on the analysis of their effects in relation to na-tional political dynamics. ...
[SRB] Na širem evropskom planu, pokrajinski ili regionalni izbori obično se smatraju izborima drugog ranga: na njima je niža izlaznost i neretko se javlja posebna politička dinamika koja uključuje gubitak glasova za nacionalne vladajuće stranke, uz porast rejtinga protestnih, regionalnih ili novih aktera. Međutim, to nije slučaj sa izborima drugog ranga koji se održavaju istoga dana kad i nacionalni parlamentarni izbori: u tom slučaju, nacionalna politička dinamika obično preuzima primat i kontaminira rezultate na nižem nivou glasanja. To je upravo slučaj sa izborima za Skupštinu Vojvodine, koji su poslednji put održani samostalno, bez glasanja za Narodnu skupštinu ili predsednika Republike istog dana, davne 2004. godine. Autor će u radu pokazati da faktori poput datuma izbora i izbornog sistema utiču prvo na ponašanje izbornih aktera, a zatim i na nacionalizaciju izbornih rezultata i njihovo preslikavanje na pokrajinski nivo, te da je to bio slučaj i na izborima održanim u decembru 2023.
[ENG] On a wider level, provincial or regional elections in Europe
are usually considered second-order elections: they have lower turnout
and often a special political dynamic that includes a loss of votes for national
ruling parties, with an increase in the ratings of protest, regional
or new actors. However, when second-order elections are held on the
same day as national parliamentary elections: in that case, national political
dynamics usually take precedence and contaminate the results at
the second-order elections. This happened in the case of the elections
for the Assembly of Vojvodina, which were last held independently,
without voting for the National Assembly or the President of the Republic
on the same day, back in 2004. The article will show how factors
such as the date of the election and the electoral system influencethe
behavior of electoral actors, the nationalization of election results, and
their transfer to the provincial level, and that this occurred in the elections
held in December 2023.
... Beyond the significant media attention surrounding the party, the low threshold for gaining representation in the European Parliament in Germany may have particularly attracted voters to the BSW. Furthermore, the second-order nature of European elections, which often leads to votes driven by protest motivations or dissatisfaction with mainstream parties (Reif and Schmitt 1980;Schakel and Jeffery 2013;Schakel 2015), could make voters more inclined to support the BSW in this context. Therefore, potential factors associated with support for the BSW might emerge more prominently in the European elections than at the national level. ...
... Intended electoral choice does not always align with actual voting behavior. In addition, European elections are considered second-order elections (Reif and Schmitt 1980), characterized by lower levels of turnout, greater opportunities for smaller and new political parties, and increased protest voting, often with national issues taking precedence. Hence, specific reasons to vote for the BSW could be over-or underrepresented. ...
A new party has entered the German political landscape: The Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW). After years of debate that her former party, The Left, had become “too liberal,” one of Germany’s most prominent politicians, Sahra Wagenknecht, founded her new party in January 2024. The BSW is described as blending socioeconomic leftist and sociocultural conservative positions, potentially attracting voters by positioning itself as a “left-authoritarian” party. Additionally, the BSW holds pro-Russia stances and anti-elitist sentiments. The party made a significant impact in 2024, achieving 6.2% in the European elections and securing third place in the state elections of Saxony and Thuringia. This raises the question: What underlying factors are drawing individuals to support the BSW? Using wave 26 of the German Longitudinal Election Study Panel, which includes the BSW, this article compares intended vote choice within Germany to actual votes cast in the 2024 European elections. Drawing on theories related to policy considerations and protest motivations in supporting new parties, three key findings emerge: First, left-authoritarian and pro-Russia attitudes are positively associated with support for the BSW. Second, populist attitudes and dissatisfaction with the federal government also drive individuals toward the BSW. Third, this might, however, be largely overshadowed by a strong impact of the favorability toward Sahra Wagenknecht.
... The dominant paradigm in the literature seeking to understand elections to the European Parliament (EP) is that they are second-order in character (Reif and Schmitt 1980). The most important distinction between national (i.e. ...
... Figure 2 shows the trend in electoral participation in Italy from 1979--the year of the first European Parliament elections--to the present, comparing general elections (Chamber of Deputies) and EP elections. As shown, turnout at European elections has always been lower than at general elections, a phenomenon largely explainable by the Reif and Schmitt (1980) theoretical framework. As 'second-order elections' with lower stakes, European elections are characterized by higher rates of abstention. ...
... The most famous explanation for EP elections is the so-called second-order national election theory (Reif and Schmitt 1980), which is based on two key arguments. The national political arena determines and dominates EP elections because they occur at different times. ...
... This paper has provided several significant insights into the political behavior As discussed in the literature, the theoretical foundation for this study is grounded in two major lines of thought in voting behavior literature: the Downsian model of voting (Downs, 2009) and the second-order national election theory (Reif & Schmitt, 1980). The findings of this study support the main assumption of Downs's model, emphasizing that voter participation is a function of the costs and benefits, and individuals decide to vote if the perceived benefits outweigh the costs. ...
In the wake of the 2024 elections, far-right parties have capitalized on prevailing social and economic grievances to expand their electoral base. These parties raised issues such as immigration, national security, and economic dissatisfaction to appeal to voters seeking drastic changes from the status quo. This paper focuses on expatriates’ voter turnout in the last 2019 European elections and examines whether the turnout of the European elections is influenced by the period expatriates have been living in another EU country. Additionally, this paper aims at testing if expatriates are more inclined to have an extreme political orientation than non-expatriates. Employing several logistic regression models to examine the effects between different types of determinants and turnout and extreme political orientation, this paper aims at testing to what extent the period of residence, perception of the economic situation, trust and European views influence the expatriates’ voters to go to the polls.
... 4. The distinction between first-order and second-order elections was first conceptualized by Reif and Schmitt 1980. 5. It should be emphasized that Hypothesis 2 pertains to the type of preceding elections, not the type of election in which voter turnout or the acceptability of electoral abstention is measured. ...
... The more elections that take place, the more socially acceptable it becomes to abstain. The results also support Hypothesis 2. A European Parliament election, which is a quintessential example of a second-order electoral contest (Reif and Schmitt 1980), does not exert a substantively weaker effect than a presidential election. Although the regression coefficient of Municipal (0.07) is smaller than that of Presidential (0.16) and European (0.2), the difference is statistically insignificant (p > 0.16 in both cases). ...
The existing literature shows that frequent elections depress electoral participation and contribute to the global decline in voter turnout. However, the causal mechanisms remain unclear. This paper investigates the sources of voter fatigue and hypothesizes that frequent elections make electoral abstention more acceptable to citizens. It tests the main hypothesis via an original pre-registered survey experiment fielded in five countries with a total sample size of 12,221 respondents. The results provide pioneering evidence on the psychological effects of election frequency. They confirm that high election frequency increases the social acceptability of electoral abstention and that this effect is proportional to the number of past elections. It can be equally observed among all major social groups, including politically engaged citizens and those who believe that voting is a civic duty. These findings hold major implications for our understanding of voter turnout and democratic institutional engineering.
... Letzteres, also eine "Bewertbarkeit" durch einen Vergleich, gilt natürlich auch für das Ergebnis einer Bundestagswahl. Da es sich bei Europawahlen aber um sogenannte Nebenwahlen handelt, und diese Besonderheiten aufweisen (Reif und Schmitt 1980;Marsh und Mikhaylov 2010), stellt sich die Frage, was überhaupt den korrekten Vergleichsmaßstab darstellt. Sind Veränderungen zur Europawahl 2019 sinnvoll zu interpretieren? ...
... In der einfachsten Definition stellen all jene Wahlen Nebenwahlen dar, die nicht die wichtigsten Wahlämter eines Landes bestimmen oder "befüllen" (Reif 1984). Im Unterschied zu Hauptwahlen -wie etwa den Bundestagswahlen in Deutschland -führt die geringere und vor allem als geringer wahrgenommene Relevanz zu einer niedrigeren Wahlbeteiligung, geringerem öffentlichen sowie medialem Interesse, schwächerer Wahlkampfintensität und größeren Erfolgen von kleineren, radikalen und Oppositionsparteien. Unterschiede sind dann am größten, je zeitlich näher die Nebenwahl am Mittelpunkt des Hauptwahlzyklus stattfindet (Hix und Marsh 2011;Reif und Schmitt 1980). So werden Nebenwahlen als Barometerwahlen bezeichnet (Anderson und Ward 1996); demnach nutzen Bürger:innen Europawahlen in erster Linie, um Unzufriedenheit mit der Politik in der Hauptarena des politischen Wettbewerbs auszudrücken. ...
Zusammenfassung
Nach Europawahlen werden von Medien, Parteien und auch der Wissenschaft häufig Rückschlüsse auf die politische Stimmung in einem Mitgliedsland gezogen. Die Wahlen zum Europäischen Parlament stellen allerdings Nebenwahlen dar, die von den Bürger:innen häufig als „Denkzettel“ für die nationalen Regierungsparteien genutzt werden. Eine geringere und selektivere Wahlbeteiligung, sowie andere Themenlagen als bei nationalen Hauptwahlen tragen oft zu deutlich abweichenden Wahlergebnissen bei. Es stellt sich daher die Frage, was überhaupt eine sinnvolle Vergleichsperspektive zur Einordnung der Ergebnisse sein kann. Am Beispiel des Abschneidens der europäischen Regierungsparteien bei der Europawahl 2024 wird argumentiert, dass ein Vergleich sowohl mit nationalen Hauptwahlen als auch mit der vorangegangenen Europawahl 2019 sinnvoll und fruchtbar sein kann, wenn die jeweiligen Kontexte berücksichtigt werden. Die verschiedenen Wahlen folgen nicht nur unterschiedlichen Logiken, sondern führen auch zu divergierenden Ergebnissen hinsichtlich der Zustimmung der Wähler:innen und den daraus resultierenden Gewinnen und Verlusten. Eine Kombination beider Perspektiven kann helfen, Fehlschlüsse zu vermeiden.
... This second-order framework, inspired by work from European Parliament elections (Reif & Schmitt, 1980), suggests that attitudes to the incumbent government influence the vote. There is an ongoing debate, especially in European referendums, as to how government popularity influences referendum outcomes (Franklin, Marsh, & Wlezien, 1994;Garry et al., 2005;Quinlan, 2012;Svensson, 2002). ...
Election prediction flourishes among pollsters, the media, academics, and political anoraks, with four significant prognostic paradigms: opinion polls, markets, structural models, and hybrid approaches. Structural models, inspired by political science theory and based on so-called “fundamental” indicators, have a long pedigree in predicting government performance in elections cross-nationally. Despite their prevalence and prowess in forecasting contests for government, these structural models have not been applied to predict referendums, where the prognosis game, as far as it exists, primarily relies on polls. Perhaps this is unsurprising given that plebiscites can be especially hard to forecast given that citizens often vote on complex subjects not always salient in public discourse, partisan cues are sometimes lacking, and late opinion shifts are arguably more common than in elections. In this contribution, we break new ground by fusing two strands of political science literature—election forecasting and referendums—and devise a prediction model of plebiscites based on economic, institutional, and historical variables, thereby providing the first structural forecasting model to account for referendum adoption and support levels. We apply this model ex-post to 42 national referendums in Ireland between 1968 and 2024 to test its applicability ex-ante. In Europe, Ireland stands third only to Switzerland and Italy as polities that regularly employ referendums to decide public policy issues. With reasonable lead time, ex-post estimates of our model offer solid predictions of the referendums’ outcome, with out-of-sample estimates calling the outcome correctly 68%–79% of the time, a remarkable feat given that the issues up for decision are varied. Moreover, we demonstrate that our model’s predictions are competitive with opinion poll estimates of these contests, illustrating that while our model is not a panacea, it provides a reasonable starting point for predicting the outcomes of referendums in Ireland and, importantly, plants a vital seed for future work on forecasting plebiscites using model approaches.
... The findings underscore the mobilization challenges that Italian parties face in EP elections, which are traditionally characterized by higher abstention rates. The outcome also aligns with broader trends in second-order elections, where governing parties often experience electoral penalties, and opposition parties struggle to mobilize their supporters effectively (Reif and Schmitt 1980). Furthermore, the persistence of the "Wall of Arcore", evidenced by the minimal crossover between the center-left and center-right blocs, reinforces the continued polarization of the Italian electorate. ...
This article presents findings from the Telescope Public Opinion Watch, a set of two cross-sectional surveys analyzing Italian public opinion and political preferences throughout 2024. The first, conducted in May before the European Parliament elections, examined voters' electoral intentions, issue preferences, and opinion on leaders of the main parties. Results indicated high electoral uncertainty, persistent ideological divides, and the strategic importance of key leadership traits. The second survey, conducted in November, tracked shifts in public attitudes and introduced new items addressing emergent political debates. Findings revealed increased war-weariness, increasingly negative attitudes towards immigration, and growing climate change polarization. Class-based and generational divides within electoral coalitions deepened, particularly within the right-wing bloc. The article highlights the challenges of voter mobilization, the entrenchment of partisan loyalties, and the relevance of economic and security concerns in shaping electoral behavior. It offers a comprehensive overview of the current Italian political landscape and the structural constraints that might affect future electoral competition.
... A crucial effect of the 2024 EP elections is that the new European Parliament will influence legislation, the selection of the European Commission members, and the overall direction of EU policymaking. European Parliament elections are seen as second-order elections (SOEs), being perceived as less important than national legislative elections (Reif and Schmitt 1980). In practice, second-order elections are more likely to be characterized by national issues and politics than EU-level elections. ...
This study evaluates the link between economic voting and electoral behavior in the 2024 European Parliament (EP) elections. This study is grounded in both selective perception and economic voting theories, examining how different independent factors could interact with electoral behavior. In this regard, the research aims to achieve several research directions: (i) the evaluation of the statistical differences in voters’ turnout in 2024 EP elections by geographical regions; (ii) the analysis of the interaction between voters’ perceptions of the current or future economic situations and voter turnout; (iii) the analysis of the interaction between objective economic conditions and electoral behavior. Using both multiple linear regression and logistic models, the study highlights that voter turnout and incumbent party reelection are significantly related to voters’ perceptions of the current or future state of the national economy. The results reveal that regional differences in voter turnout are largely explained by significant differences in voters’ economic perceptions, while the decision to vote for the incumbent party is driven by future economic expectations. The empirical findings underscore the pivotal role played by subjective perceptions in shaping electoral behavior, illustrating that political attitudes and behaviors are derived from personal interpretation of the national economic situations. Beyond theoretical perspectives that highlight the link between psychological processes and voting, the paper might have several practical implications for academics or decision makers interested in the field of electoral behavior.
... 16 The results presented in Figure B.5.1 in the Supplementary Material do not provide evidence that the epidemic affected the vote share of regional incumbent or farright parties in regional elections. In Section B.5 of the Supplementary Material, we explain this result by stressing the second-order nature of regional elections (Reif and Schmitt 1980) and voters' inability to accurately attribute responsibility for various policies to different territorial levels of government 9 Section C.1 of the Supplementary Material describes the procedure and Table C.1.1 in the Supplementary Material reports descriptive statistics on the two selected cases. 10 As shown in Figure C.2.1 in the Supplementary Material, the positive case lies on the 80th (38 minutes) and the negative case on the 46th (22 minutes) percentile of the distribution of distance to public service hubs. ...
While an abundance of scholarly work investigates how economic shocks influence the political behavior of affected individuals, we know much less about their collective effects. Exploiting the sudden onset of a plant disease epidemic in Puglia, Italy—where the plant pathogen Xylella fastidiosa devastated centuries-old olive groves—we explore the collective effects of economic shocks. By combining quantitative difference-in-differences analysis of municipal data with a novel case selection strategy for qualitative fieldwork, we document the hardship caused by the outbreak, and estimate a 2.2-percentage-point increase in far-right vote share. We show that preexisting public service deprivation moderates the shock’s political consequences through a community narrative of state neglect. These findings highlight that preexisting community conditions shape the political consequences of economic shocks, and that plant disease epidemics—which are becoming more prevalent due to climate change—have important political effects.
... (Hobolt & De Vries, 2016, p. 424). The second-order nature of European parliamentary elections (Reif & Schmitt, 1980) probes this view and shows the importance of the national level within this two-level game (Putnam, 1998). ...
The thesis investigates the effects of multiple crises on public attitudes towards European integration. Specifically, it shows how Euroscepticism and populism connect during periods of exogenous shock. The analysis considers two major crises: the Euro-crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on multiple Eurobarometer Surveys delivered between 2009 and 2022 and testing the hypothesis with multiple linear regression analyses, we assess whether increasing Eurosceptic tendencies are correlated with increasing populist attitudes, checking for the influence of external shocks on their relationship. After a detailed literature review, Chapter 1 introduces the research question. In Chapter 2, Euroscepticism is presented within the framework of two major theories of European integration-neofunctionalism and postfunctionalism. Chapter 3 explores the interplay of crisis scenarios and the emergence of populist movements in Europe. Chapter 4 explains how and why Euroscepticism and populism play a significant role in contemporary European politics. Finally, Chapter 5 is dedicated to the empirical analysis of the hypotheses outlined in the introduction and presents the main findings. The current work contributes to the literature regarding the determinants of support for transnational integration and the explanatory power of major theories of European integration. Furthermore, it offers additional evidence regarding the interdependence between Euroscepticism and populism in relation to different crisis shocks: symmetric and asymmetric.
... This particular sequence of elections-that is, state elections considered "second-order" elections (Reif & Schmitt, 1980; but see Giebler, 2017) followed by a national election considered to be a "first-order" election-implies that we study a least likely scenario for the development of habituation effects. On the one hand, a second-order election is less mobilizing than a first-order election, and on the other, a first-order election strongly mobilizes citizens independent of their previous electoral participation. ...
Unequal political participation increasingly challenges democracies. The turnout gap is particularly large among younger voters, with severe implications for future developments of democratic representation, legitimacy, and quality. This article focuses on the role of political efficacy beliefs in explaining unequal turnout among newly enfranchised citizens. We argue that internal political efficacy beliefs are particularly important for turnout among the newly enfranchised from lower-class backgrounds, as they lack alternative mobilizing factors such as politically aware and active parents, political knowledge, and mobilizing networks. Furthermore, we argue that once these voters successfully turn out in their first election, they are as likely as those from higher-class backgrounds to turn out in their second election. We empirically test these arguments using original longitudinal data on newly enfranchised citizens from three German federal states (Bundesländer). Overall, our results support the argument: Political efficacy beliefs are a stronger predictor of first turnout among young adults from disadvantaged backgrounds compared to those from more advantaged backgrounds, and those who do turn out are as likely as those with higher-class backgrounds to turn out in their second election. This highlights the relevance of political efficacy beliefs in the (re)production of persisting political inequality.
... In general, the literature has consistently classified EP elections as "second-order national elections" (Reif & Schmitt 1980). It is worth noting that there are critics who question this interpretative model (Hix & Marsh 2011). ...
This paper addresses the issue of 'second order' elections as applied to the electoral results of the 2019 and 2024 European Parliament elections in the Iberian states. Specifically, it aims to analyse whether these elections can be classified within this category. To achieve this objective and answer the research question, we have analysed through descriptive statistics the information related to three study variables extracted from the conceptual model adopted: level of electoral participation; strategic or affective orientation and motivation of the vote; level of support for the ruling party. The results show contrasting trends in relation to the expected values. In conclusion, we must point out the impossibility of effectively framing the elections analysed in the second-order category. We can affirm that the analytical model traditionally used presents important limitations in contexts of change and recomposition in party systems.
... The failure of the referendums has been explained by academics and analysts in terms of dissatisfaction with national governments. The term 'second-order national elections' (Reif, 1980) was coined to explain that EU politics were too complex and distant from national voters to allow them to meaningfully engage with them (Anderson 1998). I will leave aside the question of whether a policy that does not engage the interest of the voter is meaningful! ...
Objective: The objective of this study is to investigate UN SDG focusing on the Gender equality, with the aim to examine the main instruments of modern totalitarian ideology, focusing mostly on LGBT+ direction. Theoretical Framework: The article examines some of the main tools used to impose totalitarian power - propaganda, censorship and centralization of power. An analysis is made of their modern manifestations, such as political correctness, hate speech, and smooth centralization of power. Method: Addressing the topic of gender equality requires looking at several aspects such as biological, physiological and social. This study examines these aspects in view of the growing discussion on expanding the rights of the LGBT+ community as well as the used methods and there comparison with similar used by the totalitarian regimes. Results and Discussion: There is a different in form but equal in content comparability between the tools used to impose Queer "equality" with those of the totalitarian regimes of the twentieth century.
... The second-order election (SOE) thesis contends that the results of EP elections are decided by national politics (Reif and Schmitt 1980), and not vice versa; most electors consider the European political arena less important and vote to express their satisfaction or dissatisfaction with domestic politics. Political parties are subject to this second-order effect, regardless of their size and electoral history (Bartels 2023). ...
This study examines the intra-party mechanism that links right-wing populist parties' electoral performance in European elections and their persistence on the national political stage. Nationally marginalized right-wing populist parties have benefited from the second-order character of European elections since the introduction of the direct election in 1979. However, not every right-wing populist party has been able to turn its European victory into a national success. The most similar system comparison of right-wing populist parties in France and the UK shows that only parties that have strategically utilized the resources provided by the European Parliament have persisted in the national political arena.
... 1 The Spitzenkandidat was the German term used in the 2014 European Parliament campaign in order to revitalise the enthusiasm for the European elections and as an attempt to fill the democratic gap between citizens and the European Commission. 2 The consolidated 'second-order theory' states that European elections are more likely to be an exceptional opportunity to judge (or to protest) against the national government's performance in absence of other local or national elections (Reif & Schmitt, 1980 work. By Euroscepticism, I imply all those forms of antagonisation towards the European integration process as criticising/blaming the EU or demanding for a withdrawal from the European membership. ...
... A partire dallo studio di Dinkel (1977: 357), infatti, le elezioni dei Länder vengono considerate "elezioni subordinate [...] sistematicamente influenzate dalla costellazione sovra-ordinata nel Bundestag". Come è stato osservato per altre "elezioni di secondo ordine" (SOE) (Reif e Schmitt, 1980), l'affluenza tende ad essere più bassa a metà mandato del ciclo elettorale federale e al contempo i partiti di opposizione e i partiti piccoli e radicali guadagnano sostegno a spese dei partiti di governo a livello federale. Questi ultimi invece massimizzano il rendimento elettorale se le elezioni si svolgono nello stesso momento, all'inizio o alla fine del ciclo elettorale nazionale (Hough e Jeffery, 2001; Cabeza e Scantamburlo, 2021). ...
... The choice of studying an election period in general and the EU parliament elections in particular is also not unproblematic: these elections are often perceived as "second order" elections (i.e. subordinate to national politics rather than focused on issues at the EU level -see Reif and Schmitt, 1980). There is hence an important question concerning whether the patterns found could be generalized to first order national elections, or indeed politics outside of election time. ...
The emergence of politically driven divisions in online discussion networks has attracted a wealth of literature, but also one which has thus far been largely limited to single country studies. Hence whilst there is good evidence that these networks do divide and fragment into what are often described as "echo chambers", we know little about the factors which might explain this division or make networks more or less fragmented, as studies have been limited to a small number of political groupings with limited possibilities for systematic comparison. This paper seeks to remedy this deficit, by providing a systematic large scale study of fragmentation on Twitter which considers discussion networks surrounding 90 different political parties in 23 different countries. It shows that political party groupings which are further apart in ideological terms interact less, and that individuals and parties which sit at the extreme ends of the ideological scale are particularly likely to form echo chambers. Indeed, exchanges between centrist parties who sit on different sides of the left-right divide are more likely than communication between centrist and extremist parties who are, notionally, from the same ideological wing. In light of the results, theory about exposure to different ideological viewpoints online is discussed and enhanced.
... Moreover, as a result of progressive European institutional integration since the 1950s, EU institutions have become more salient to European citizens over time. While European integration was once a non-issue for the general public, and European elections were mere popularity tests for national governments (Reif and Schmitt 1980), the issue has become increasingly relevant to many voters (Hobolt, Spoon, and Tilley 2008). Researchers have labelled this a shift from 'permissive consensus'where citizens agreed with elites when it came to the pooling of sovereigntyto 'constraining dissensus' (Hooghe and Marks 2008). ...
Since the 1950s, the history of European integration unfolds as a unique social experiment, witnessing the transformation of a non-existent entity into an increasingly institutionalized force. This article delves into the consequences of this ongoing institutionalization on public attitudes towards the institution itself: the European Union (EU). We argue that as European institutional integration advanced, a divide in EU support between more and less educated individuals emerged, with the latter becoming progressively less supportive. Drawing on data from eighty-five waves of the Eurobarometer survey across fifteen countries and over 820,000 individuals from 1976 to 2014, a Bayesian mixed-effects analysis reveals that the gap in support between the more and less educated significantly widened with a country's level of institutional integration. This study emphasizes the necessity of distinguishing institutional effects from temporal patterns in order to enhance our understanding of EU-related public opinion dynamics.
... This study aimed to examine how parties use divisive, negative, and populist content in their DPA on While the EP election provides a valuable context for cross-country investigations because of the relative homogeneity of electoral competition-such as uniform rules, stakes, and timing-this specificity also introduces limitations to the generalizability of our findings. The EP election is often characterized as a "second-order election" (Reif & Schmitt, 1980), perceived as less crucial than national elections, which are considered "first-order." As a result, political parties typically allocate fewer personnel, financial, and time resources to EP campaigns (Petithomme, 2012). ...
For digital political advertising (DPA) on Facebook, parties can complement their organic communication by targeting users with sponsored posts (Facebook-sponsored posts) and advertising campaigns (Facebook ads). Based on the theoretical framework of dissonant public spheres in the digital age, this article provides the first empirical analysis of how and with what content populist and mainstream parties use DPA on Facebook for divisive, negative, and populist messages. We analyze a data set of approximately 10,000 Facebook organic posts, sponsored posts, and ads published by 53 parties across 10 European countries during the 2019 European parliamentary election. Our findings reveal that populist and mainstream parties do not sponsor more posts or spend more money on ads containing divisive topics, negativity, and populist communication styles. Our article extends the debate on digital public spheres by incorporating parties' use of division, negativity, and populism in DPA, thus offering a better understanding of their implications for shaping dissonant public spheres.
... By contrast, other scholars suggest that instead of benefiting populist parties, decentralization could make their national success less likely (Arzheimer and Carter, 2006;Mudde, 2007). These arguments are based in the second-order election model (Reif and Schmitt, 1980). According to this model, radical parties are likely to have greater electoral success in regional elections than in national ones. ...
The rise of populist parties in Europe has generated an enormous amount of academic literature. Previous research has thoroughly examined the factors contributing to the electoral success of populist parties. Surprisingly, very little attention has been paid to the role of decentralization, one of the most widespread forms of governance in the world. This paper aims to fill this gap by presenting a theoretical and empirical account of the effect of decentralization on the electoral fortunes of populist parties in Europe. Using aggregated data from election results in 30 European countries, this paper puts competing hypotheses to the test. I argue that the mechanism linking decentralization and populist parties’ national election results is, in fact, indirect and depends on the existence of a regional tier of government. Results suggest that having representation in subnational parliaments plays a significant role in the national success of populist parties, and this effect is contingent on the degree of regional authority.
The article addresses the new geopolitical context in Europe, particularly in light of the Russia vs. Ukraine conflict, and its impact on the electoral programs and the results of the 2024 European Parliament elections. It takes as an object of empirical study the positioning of European political parties and related parliamentary groups, based on the analysis of their 2024 electoral manifestos. In the conclusion, the positions are summarised, highlighting in particular the emergence of Russia as a threat; the almost generalised support for Ukraine, even if shaped by differentiated approaches; and a substantial dividing line between parties that support the strengthening of integration in the field of security and defence and sovereignist parties, the representation of which has grown in the European Parliament.
Volič není pouze izolovaný jedinec, nýbrž součást komplexního systému, ve kterém je jeho rozhodování výrazně ovlivňováno prostorovým kontextem lokality, kde žije, na rozdílných řádovostních úrovních od domácnosti po široce pojatý region. Kontextuální přístup volební geografie je v této disertační práci interdisciplinárně propojen s myšlenkami psychosociální teorie hlasování, s modelem pružně reagujícího voliče, perspektivou politického marketingu a s principy behaviorální segmentace. V teoretické rovině se výzkum opírá o koncepty jako například efekt souseda (vliv konkrétních kandidátů) či efekt sousedství (vliv názorů lidí ve voličově okolí). Hlavním cílem je definovat stěžejní faktory rozhodování voličů v českých parlamentních volbách a analyzovat nejen teritorialitu volebních preferencí, ale především samotného rozhodovacího procesu. V souvislosti s důrazem na komparativní charakter celé práce bylo vybráno šest odlišných regionů tak, aby co nejlépe reprezentovaly rozdílné typy českého volebního prostoru svou horizontální i vertikální geografickou polohou i volebním chováním tamního obyvatelstva. Jednalo se o regiony Karvinsko, Olomoucko, Brno-město, zázemí Prahy, Mostecko a Teplicko a šumavské pohraničí. V těchto regionech probíhala ve dvou vlnách, konkrétně v říjnu 2021 a v červnu 2022, online dotazníková šetření s využitím Českého národního panelu. Kompletně vyplněné dotazníky se podařilo získat od celkového počtu 1 826 respondentů (více než 300 v každém regionu), kteří se zúčastnili parlamentních voleb roku 2021 a proporčně reprezentují populaci zájmových území s ohledem na pohlaví, věk a dosažené vzdělání. Reprezentativita vzorků byla zajištěna kvótním sběrem dat.
Výsledky realizovaných dotazníkových šetření přinášejí mnoho zajímavých zjištění o chování českých voličů. Vysokou míru nestability individuálních voličských vzorců mezi parlamentními volbami 2017 a 2021 dokumentuje velmi nízká hladina volební konzistence na úrovni 55 %, což je vzhledem k malým změnám na straně nabídky kandidujících subjektů překvapivá hodnota. Analýza hlavních důvodů výběru podpořené politické strany či koalice ve volbách do Poslanecké sněmovny roku 2021 zachytila nevídaně vysoký podíl taktického hlasování, často motivovaného averzí k některému z favoritů voleb, které mělo zásadní vliv na podobu finálních volebních výsledků. Bližší popis rozsahu, forem i determinantů těchto strategických důvodů představuje první kvantitativní studii daného zaměření v Česku a tím přispívá k diskuzi konceptu taktického hlasování v prostředí proporčních volebních systémů v mezinárodním srovnání. Motivace volebního rozhodování se lišily v souvislosti s volenou politickou stranou/koalicí, ale také v závislosti na sociodemografických charakteristikách či místě bydliště – regionu i velikosti obce. Velmi důležitým faktorem se v určitých aspektech rozhodování ukázala být rovněž síla lokální identity voličů, která je úzce provázána s jejich zájmem o lokální kandidáty a přítomnost lokálně specifických témat v rámci předvolebních kampaní. Výzkum dále odhalil, s kým a jak často lidé diskutují o politice a volbách, do jaké míry se zajímají o složení kandidátních listin nebo jaká byla jejich (ne)znalost celostátních a krajských lídrů jimi podpořeného politického uskupení ve sněmovních volbách roku 2021 či kandidátů z jejich blízkého okolí.
Respondenti napříč všemi šesti zkoumanými regiony deklarovali, že největší vliv na jejich rozhodování při sněmovních volbách mají dlouhodobé politické priority jednotlivých stran, aktuální volební programy, postojové záležitosti, osobnosti hlavních lídrů, respektive předsedů stran, názory partnera/partnerky a členů rodiny, ale i předvolební debaty v televizi. Signifikantně větší důležitost přisuzují voliči postojům stran k Evropské unii či mezinárodní migraci v porovnání s jejich zařazením na politickém spektru levice–pravice, což potvrzuje klesající význam této tradiční dichotomie. Pro různé voliče jsou však klíčové různé faktory a právě na značných odlišnostech u vybraných aspektů rozhodovacího procesu je postavena behaviorální segmentace českého elektorátu, dosud jediná svého druhu a komplexity, která v českém volebním prostředí vznikla. Výstupem segmentace je sedm voličských segmentů, detailně popsaných jak z pohledu jejich rozhodování, motivací a politického uvažování, tak i z hlediska sociodemografických a socioekonomických charakteristik, volebních preferencí či z regionální perspektivy. Přínosy zmíněné segmentace nacházíme stejně jako přínosy celé disertační práce ve třech rovinách. V očích sociologa jde o nové poznatky o struktuře české společnosti a odlišnostech v procesu rozhodování u různých skupin voličů. Své potenciální uplatnění mají výsledky v oblasti politického marketingu, jelikož nabízejí praktické využití pro optimalizaci komunikačních strategií a předvolebních kampaní jednotlivých politických stran. A v neposlední řadě na poli politické (specificky volební) geografie přinášejí možnost hlubšího porozumění prostorové diferenciaci volebního chování a volebních výsledků.
The link between citizens' and representatives' preferences is central to representative democracy. Research on representation of citizens' preferences in the European Parliament (EP) has primarily concentrated on national political parties and candidates. We ask how well transnational EP party groups and members of the EP (MEPs) represent their voters on the left–right and EU‐integration dimensions. We use data from four waves of the European Election Studies and surveys of MEPs. We show that MEPs in centrist parties tend to be closer to their voters on the left–right dimension than others, with EU positions making little difference to this. Our findings indicate the median voter tends to be more Eurosceptic than the median MEP across most centrist party groups whilst the opposite is true for the most Eurosceptic groups. These results have important implications for the study of representation and democracy in the EU.
This research aims to examine the organisational structure of two so-called joke parties: the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party (MKKP) and the German Die PARTEI. These parties occupy a unique position within their respective party systems, as neither has secured seats in the national parliament. However, both have achieved notable successes in secondary elections, such as the European Parliament elections and at the local level. Despite being primarily recognised for their humorous, satirical and ironic communication strategies, this study seeks to move beyond the surface level of their political messaging and explore their deeper organisational structures. It is hypothesised that joke parties, as a distinct party family, share structural similarities beyond their communication style. To investigate this, two key theories of party organisation have been applied. The first is the ‘three faces’ theory proposed by Peter Mair and Peter Katz, which challenges the notion of monolithic party organisation and instead conceptualises parties as entities composed of separate yet interconnected segments, each with distinct functions, powers and responsibilities. The second theoretical framework is the movement party theory, which suggests that the boundaries between political parties and social movements are less rigid than traditionally assumed in political science. This theory posits that certain parties maintain stronger ties with civil society, exhibit grassroots organisational structures, emphasise direct democracy and prioritise street -level activism. To test this hypothesis, semi -structured interviews were conducted with members of Die PARTEI and MKKP. A diverse range of respondents was selected to ensure comprehensive data collection across national, regional (state), and local levels. In addition to analysing the vertical structure of these parties, their horizontal organisation was also examined. Consequently, data were gathered from prominent figures representing the party on the ground, the party in public office and the party in the central office. The findings indicate that both parties exhibit common organisational characteristics. Notably, the segment referred to as the ‘party on the ground’ appears to be the most prominent, as their political activity places significant emphasis on street -level engagement. Furthermore, both parties demonstrate stronger connections with civil society than traditional cartel parties, aligning them with the characteristics of movement parties.
In this article we are focusing on an empirical investigation that scrutinizes the dynamics of political life within the urban landscape of Radom. Employing a methodology that combines quantitative data analysis with expert interviews, this study offers an overview of Radom – a city frequently categorized as „peripheral” within the existing sociological literature. Particular attention is paid to the development of the civil society in the city and also the cohabitation in the city council.
In bicameral legislatures, gender representation varies significantly between chambers. Historically, Japan's upper house has maintained a proportion of women twice that of the lower house. However, electoral systems alone cannot fully explain this disparity. We argue that seemingly gender‐neutral legislative institutions influence both voting behavior and candidates' willingness to run, contributing to significant disparities in gender representation in bicameral legislatures. To test this argument, we conduct two survey experiments exploring the underlying mechanisms from the perspectives of voters and candidates. Our findings suggest that informing voters about the upper house's subordinate role increases support for female candidates in upper house elections. Furthermore, women display a greater willingness to pursue office when assured of job security in the upper house, while men exhibit less interest when made aware of its limited authority to appoint the prime minister. This study enhances our current understanding of the effects of asymmetrical institutions between chambers from a gender perspective.
This article examines political discourse in the European Union (EU) in the aftermath of the full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. While prior studies have explored the policy and public opinion effects of this recent crisis, we complement them by investigating its potential to Europeanise national political debates across the EU. We hypothesise that the war, an external security threat, which was met with a unified response from the bloc and significant protagonism from EU leaders, became a ‘European issue’, triggering vertical Europeanisation of national political debates. We test this hypothesis through a novel big data approach: we analyse Facebook posts from political parties across all 27 EU member states from 2019 to early 2023. This dataset allows us to track mentions of European institutions and leaders in national political discourse for the whole of the EU. Our analysis reveals a significant increase in the vertical Europeanisation of domestic political debates in the year after the Russian invasion, strongly associated with discussions of the conflict. We also find that the increase in Europeanisation in the context of military threat is driven primarily by pro-European parties and occurs to a greater extent in countries with weaker institutions and those geographically more distant from Ukraine. These findings have significant implications for understanding how external security threats can prompt the Europeanisation of national political debates, offering new avenues for understanding the role of crises in shaping EU integration dynamics.
In the 1968 local elections the Liverpool Conservatives won 62 percent of the vote and 78 percent of the seats on Liverpool City Council. By 1972 the party had held a majority on Liverpool’s municipal government for 85 of the previous 100 years. But in 1983 they lost their last two MPs, and in 1998 they lost their final councillor. The Conservatives have not won an electoral contest in the city since.
Whatever happened to Tory Liverpool? Success, decline and irrelevance since 1945 explores the history of Conservative electoral performance in Liverpool from the end of the Second World War to the present day, and challenges a number of myths regarding the city’s political history: Conservative post-war success was not due to sectarian tensions or false consciousness, and neither was Conservative decline due to Margaret Thatcher.
The book takes a multi-method approach to the study of Conservative Party history in Liverpool. It proposes a tripartite framework, which separates the periods of success (1945–1972), decline (1973–1986), and irrelevance (1987 onwards), and argues that each period should be explained by recourse to different phenomena. Only in this way can the complex post-war history of the Conservative Party in Liverpool truly be understood.
It has long been assumed that social media would equalize election campaigning by providing cheap means of communication for smaller parties who lack a strong mass media presence. Yet given the increased political importance of social media, parties with more professional staff and resources could also gain the upper hand in online campaigns. So far, knowledge of the development of online campaigning in a rapidly changing political and technological landscape remains limited, as only few studies have taken a longitudinal and cross-country approach so far. This paper conducts a comprehensive analysis of more than 12,000 unique candidates from all 28 European Union (EU) member states in the 2014 and 2019 European Parliament (EP) elections. We theorize and empirically assess how party size and parties’ EU position relate to the presence, the activity and the salience of the EU among EP candidates on Twitter (now X). In the 2019 election, parties with a bigger national vote share and Europhile parties were more likely to be present and use Twitter more frequently to tweet about the EU. Overall, the findings point to a “normalization” of online election campaigning and a further convergence of first and second-order elections.
Instruments of “electoral engineering” such as compulsory voting, incentives and simultaneous multi-level voting, have become pretty common in contemporary democracies, especially in areas with low turnout rates. Simultaneous elections – i.e. the practice of establishing an election day when different governments (usually at local and national level, or including referendums) are elected – implies a reduction of costs for the institutions and increased empowerment for voters. However, these kinds of measures do not address the deep sentiments of disaffection for political institutions that often lie at the origin of non-voting. Moreover, simultaneous elections with different voting rules might confuse voters, thus increasing the number of invalid votes or no-choice. In order to examine the advantages and the threats of simultaneous elections, this study focuses on the recent case of the Italian general elections of 25th of September 2022, during which also the elections of the president and the regional assembly of Sicily were run simultaneously. This represents a regional context where atavistic disaffection and high volatility have marked the turnout rate of the last thirty years. By looking at the results of national elections within municipalities through a difference-in-difference strategy, we observe a slight increase in turnout rate in Sicilian municipalities. However, the number of both null and blank votes is significantly higher in Sicilian towns, suggesting a threatening effect of simultaneous voting.
The 2021 Portuguese presidential election took place during a peak of the covid-19 pandemic crisis. This unprecedent context led to the expectation of a very low turnout. Furthermore, the incumbent was declared in advance as the undisputed winner, which also contributed to this expectation. If, on the one hand, turnout was not as dramatically low as anticipated, on the other hand, Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa was unsurprisingly re-elected by a wide margin. Given this exceptional environment, the question we pose is: to what extent has the pandemic crisis affected turnout and the election result? We argue that it will have negatively affected turnout (due to voters’ fear of being infected), and will have positively contributed to the incumbent’s re-election (due to voters’ positive performance evaluations of the government in the face of the crisis). We support our analysis on a representative survey of the Portuguese voters, fielded right after the election was held.
Who holds power in Japanese local politics? This chapter investigates the complexities of local governance in Japan, focusing on the interaction between political heads and local assemblies, with particular attention to the long-term dominant Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). It examines how electoral campaigns, political strategies, and the legislative framework, as influenced by the political system, result in a practice where the LDP’s dominance in councils markedly affects the political heads. Although Japan’s local government is often equated with a presidential system with a strong political head, this chapter reveals dynamics more akin to a parliamentary system with an influential local council. In this context, the analysis explores the rise of the Osaka Restoration Association (ORA) and the LDP’s fragmentation in gubernatorial elections to identify the causes of these remarkable development.
Central-Eastern European (CEE) historical and cultural experiences can constitute an important contribution to the Global IR. Religion plays a special role here (we discuss the phenomena of “ethnicization of religion” and “sacralization of ethnicity”), which still does not find an adequate place in Western IR. Using data provided by the Institute of Catholic Church Statistics and the National Electoral Commission, we analyze the connections between Poles’ religiosity and voting in the Sejm elections from 2007 to 2015. We use cartographic and statistical methods for this purpose. As a result, there is a visible strengthening of political polarization in Poland, based largely on viewpoint issues, especially those related to the approach to religion. Therefore: 1. religion still “matters” for IR because it significantly influences political choices, especially in CEE, including Poland; 2. the concept of Global IR should be expanded to include research on religion, as it remains a relevant factor for this concept – it contributes significantly to “non-Western” theorizing on IR, e.g., in the CEE region; 3. perhaps the postsecular approach to studying international reality developed within Western IR could find its application in the concept of Global IR, which has a great chance of contributing to the dissemination of a new, postsecular identity of the discipline. It is worth using multidisciplinary research, as demonstrated in this article.
Extensive research explores women's entry into parliament and their political influence. However, reasons for women leaving, particularly in the European Parliament context, remain unclear. This study investigates departure patterns of women European parliamentarians from 2009 to 2019, investigating the role of politicians themselves, national parties, and voters. The study finds less gender differences in parliamentarians’ exit than expected, highlighting national parties’ pivotal role in a women-friendly European setting and the importance of the mediating power of the electoral system. Contrary to expectations, national parties do not disadvantage women during re-selection. Women experience higher re-election probabilities, influenced by parties’ strategies and voter preferences. Also, those women who want to progress to the national political level from the EP are not less likely to succeed in their post-parliamentary career. I conclude that electoral institutions, along with their interaction with political actors, influence women's career paths.
This chapter describes the political background in which PASOK held open multi-candidate primaries for leadership in 2007, 2015, 2017 and 2021. It examines the electoral context with a focus on the candidates’ campaign strategies for the post. It analyses in depth the voting behaviour of party selectors against the three ordered selection criteria of the Stark model using polling data as well as qualitative insights from interviews with candidates, their closest aides, prominent party officials and political journalists.
We compare the nature of party systems across bicameral legislatures using newly available data on upper chamber elections. We examine the similarity in the composition of political parties between the lower and upper chambers (partisan congruence) and introduce a novel measure that captures differences in the nationalization of parties between the two chambers (nationalization congruence). We explore variations in these measures across countries and over time and demonstrate that the power of the upper chamber (symmetry) is linked to both forms of congruence. Moreover, we apply these measures to understand how the interaction between congruence and symmetry—two key dimensions of bicameralism—influences policymaking, focusing on government spending patterns. Our findings reveal that partisan and nationalization congruence can have contrasting implications for government spending in symmetric bicameral systems but have negligible implications in asymmetric bicameral systems.
Impressive growth in public support for the European Community took place during the decade follow ing its founding; there is reason to believe that this development was partly due to the exceptional prosperity then prevailing in the Community's member nations. Con versely, there is evidence that the troubled economic conditions present since expansion of the Community in 1973 have had the opposite effect—subject to some important limiting factors. Analysis of public opinion survey data re veals a positive correlation between support for Community membership and a given nation's level of industrial pro duction at a given time point; and a negative correla tion with rates of inflation. Nevertheless, long-term in fluences seem to dominate the effects of the immediate economic context. Among these long-term factors, length of membership in the Community seems particularly important. But the presence of "Post-Materialist" value priorities, and of relatively high levels of "Cognitive Mobilization" also show significant linkages with public support for European integration. Peer Reviewed http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/68039/2/10.1177_000271627844000108.pdf
Die empirische Untersuchung der Auswirkung verschiedener Wahlsysteme auf das Regierungs- und Parteiensystem geht von folgenden Annahmen aus:
1.
Wahlsysteme bestimmen die Verteilung der Mandate auf die Parteien zusätzlich zum Wählerverhalten;
2.
Wahlsysteme beeinflussen das Wählerverhalten, weil sie die Entscheidungssituation der Wähler unabhängig von anderen Wahlmotiven verändern.
“European Integration has slowed down since the mid-50's, and has stopped or reached a plateau since 1957–58.” This is Karl Deutsch's first major conclusion in a recent summary report of findings from a study which he and a number of colleagues have been executing over the past few years. The study appears to be one of the most ambitious and interesting political research projects undertaken in recent years; its findings should be widely useful. In reaching this conclusion, Deutsch's interpretation is not merely that integration has stopped in the relatively narrow realm of formal government decisions; on the contrary, he contends that the process has come to a halt in the “European political environment” as a whole.
Deutsch bases his case on an analysis of trade flows and other transactions, content analysis of the elite press, public opinion surveys and elite interviews. An examination of much the same data, in connection with a study of political socialization in Western Europe, has led me to a radically different conclusion. Far from finding a stagnation of integrative processes since 1958, I would argue that, in some respects, European integration may have moved into full gear only since 1958. In this article I will first present some new evidence concerning attitudes among the younger generation in The Netherlands, France, West Germany and Great Britain; I will then review Deutsch's findings in this context.
An explanatory model for the outcomes of midterm congressional elections is developed. Midterms are a referendum on the performance of the President and his administration's management of the economy. The explanatory model of midterm congressional elections is sufficiently powerful so as to yield honest and accurate pre-election predictions of the national two-party vote in midterm elections. These predictions have usually outperformed pre-election forecasts based on survey data. The model is extended by considering the translation of votes into seats, models of the electorate as a whole and of the individual voter, and the causes of the off-year loss by the President's party.
Party politics in municipal affairs in England is nothing new although it has greatly stimulated by the Labor Party. Party elections receive encouragement from all party organizers, for they enable local party machines to be kept alive. Municipal administration, however, is seldom influenced by party spirit, and party cnntrol is not too emphatic
THE JUNE 1979 EUROPEAN ELECTIONS MARK A VERY IMPORTant date, not only for the members of the European Community, but also for all the European countries, since for the first time, almost simultaneously, the representatives to the parliamentary Assembly of the Community were chosen democratically in the nine countries.
THE POLITICAL GAINS EXPECTED FROM HOLDING DIRECT ELECtions to the European Parliament were bound to depend on the nature and extent of mass communication. Information flows released during the campaign in the various Community countries, and how they were received by electoral audiences, would determine, for example, whether: European awareness would spread beyond the confines of cosmopolitan élites into the ranks of mass publics; the legitimacy of the Euro ean Parliament would be strengthened by enhancing its visibility, intelligibility and relevance in the eyes of European citizens; and whether the seeds of a European-level body of public opinion would begin to sprout and flourish. As Emdio Colombo once put it, ‘The elections to the European Parliament by direct universal suffrage provide an opportunity of bringing the debate on Europe into the public forum and of enlisting the active support of the man in the street for the construction of Europe.’
In June 1979, 110,968,000 citizens of the nine European Community countries voted to select representatives to the European Parliament - the fvst directlyelected supranational parliament in history.
Representatives from nine nations sit together as members of transnational party federations that have, in varying degrees, worked out joint political programmes. As a democratically elected body, the new European Parliament possesses a political legitimacy that the former, appointed, Parliament never had. By itself, this does not automatically give it a more influential role in decision-making at the European level, but it certainly strengthens the Parliament's potential to do so.
With four sets of European parliamentary elections now behind us, it is appropriate to review the prevailing interpretation of such elections as second-order national elections, a view first put forward by Reif and Schmitt in 1980. While the second-order model has yielded important insights into the way European elections can be understood as manifesting national political processes, more recent research has fruitfully turned the model on its head, and focused on what European elections can tell us about national elections and the nature of the voting act. Indeed, the use of individual-level survey data to study elections to the European Parliament has for the first time truly shown us the importance of institutional and political context in conditioning turnout and party choice. Findings of recent research suggest that the second-order features of European elections should be thought of as contextual variables that can affect other elections as well.
Here is the unabridged version of the classic theoretical study of voting behavior, originally published in 1960. It is a standard reference in the field of electoral research, presenting formulations of the theoretical issues that have been the focus of scholarly publication. No single study matches the study of The American Voter.
This article revisits the theory of the nationalisation of electoral politics from both a conceptual and a methodological perspective. Presenting and evaluating this theory through a critical analysis of the major works, the article focuses on the analytical utility and the theoretical interest of such a re‐examination, and provides a new conceptual and operational definition of this political phenomenon. The concept of nationalisation is discussed in regard to three electoral dimensions: homogeneity of support; uniform swing; and responses to national factors. Combining these three dimensions, the article provides a typology of the different forms of nationalisation, explores the possibilities of its analytical application, and tries to establish the extent to which the operational definition of nationalisation corresponds to the conceptual and theoretical definition.
At head of title: Fondation nationale des sciences politiques. Issued also as thesis, Paris. "Sources et bibliographie": p. 279-[288].
The approval accorded to Presidents by the American public is found to follow a cyclical pattern over time. All Presidents
begin their terms with great popularity, experience parabolic declines, steadily lose popular support for about three years,
and then recover some at the ends of their terms. These distinctive cycles, it is argued, reflect regular expectation/disillusionment
cycles among the less well-informed segments of the public and are tied to the four-year election calendar. The extraordinary
fit of parabolic curves to actual presidential approval leads to the suspicion that presidential approval may be almost wholly
independent of the President's behavior in office, a function largely of inevitable forces associated with time.
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