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Assisted colonization in a changing climate: A test-study using two U.K. Butterflies
Abstract
Recent climatic change in temperate regions has been rapid and there is mounting speculation that species are failing to keep track of suitable climate, perhaps necessitating assisted colonization for some species. An inability to spread into new areas may result in large reductions in species’ ranges in the future, and threaten the survival of some species. Here we use “species-climate” models to predict suitable sites for introductions beyond current range margins, using two U.K. butterfly species. We introduced Melanargia galathea (marbled white) and Thymelicus sylvestris (small skipper) into two sites in northern England, ∼65 and ∼35 km beyond their then-range margins, respectively, to sites that were predicted to be climatically suitable and that appeared to contain suitable habitat for the species. Both introduced populations grew and expanded their range over 6 years (2001–2006; still thriving in 2008), suggesting the existence of a colonization lag and providing evidence that well-planned assisted colonization can be successful. We suggest that assisted colonization may be a feasible and cost-effective means of enabling certain species to track climatic change.
... We categorised translocations as research-motivated if they aimed to further the field of conservation translocations through the release of insects in more experimental circumstances. For example, Willis et al. (2009) translocated two common butterfly species ∼35 and ∼65 km beyond their current ranges in the United Kingdom to test the use of species distribution models for identifying potential assisted colonisation release sites. In this study, the aim was to test the principle of the approach, rather than to establish populations of the two species for conservation purposes. ...
... This decision was made because conservation translocations principally aim to establish a viable population (IUCN, 2013), whereas translocations motivated by other factors often do not (e.g. Willis et al., 2009;Pratt and Emmel, 2010;Forsman et al., 2012). ...
Translocation is increasingly used as a management strategy to mitigate the effects of human activity on biodiversity. Based on the current literature, we summarised trends in terrestrial insect translocations and identified factors associated with success and failure. As the authors' definitions of success and failure varied according to the individual sets of goals and objectives in each project, we adopted a standardised species-specific definition of success. We applied generalised linear models and information-theoretic model selection to identify the most important factors associated with translocation success. We found literature documenting the translocation of 74 terrestrial insect species to 134 release sites. Of the translocations motivated by conservation, 52% were considered successful, 31% were considered to have failed and 17% were undetermined. Our results indicate that the number of individuals released at a translocation site was the most important factor associated with translocation success, despite this being a relatively infrequent perceived cause of failure as reported by authors. Factors relating to weather and climate and habitat quality were the most commonly perceived causes of translocation failure by authors. Consideration of these factors by managers during the planning process may increase the chance of success in future translocation attempts of terrestrial insects.
... Assisted migrations allow individuals to overstep such barriers in reasonable times to aid the species avoiding extinction (Schwartz et al. 2012). Although this approach has already been used (Willis et al. 2009), its application is still largely debated (Pérez et al. 2012;Schwartz et al. 2012) and depends on a trade-off between costs and benefits (Hoegh-Guldberg et al. 2008). For example, assisted migrations may lead to conservation paradoxes of species considered as endangered in their native range but recognized as invasive in their introduced range (Marchetti and Engstrom 2016; Marková et al. 2020). ...
Species introductions are a major concern for ecosystem functioning, socio-economic wealth, and human well-being. Preventing introductions proved to be the most effective management strategy, and various tools such as species distribution models and risk assessment protocols have been developed or applied to this purpose. These approaches use information on a species to predict its potential invasiveness and impact in the case of its introduction into a new area. At the same time, much biodiversity has been lost due to multiple drivers. Ways to determine the potential for successful reintroductions of once native but now extinct species as well as assisted migrations are yet missing. Stable isotope analyses are commonly used to reconstruct a species’ feeding ecology and trophic interactions within communities. Recently, this method has been used to predict potentially arising trophic interactions in the absence of the target species. Here we propose the implementation of stable isotope analysis as an approach for assessment schemes to increase the accuracy in predicting invader impacts as well as the success of reintroductions and assisted migrations. We review and discuss possibilities and limitations of this methods usage, suggesting promising and useful applications for scientists and managers.
... Se han llevado a cabo varios proyectos de reintroducción de poblaciones extintas de polinizadores, previamente documentadas 41 , de introducción de taxones en nichos ecológicos adecuados, pero no ocupados, de refuerzos poblacionales y de translocaciones (Taino, 2016;Willis et al., 2009;Kuska y Lukásek, 1993;Descimon, 1995;Kuźmiński et al., 2014). En este último caso, las iniciativas consultadas están relacionadas el concepto de «deuda climática» (Devictor et al., 2012). ...
... While M. galathea is restricted to England and Wales in the UK, it has expanded its range rapidly northwards in recent decades (Fox et al., 2015). Successful introductions to previously unoccupied sites in Northern England suggest that the species lags behind its current climatic niche at the range margin (Willis et al., 2009). The species has a karyotype of 24 chromosomes (Bigger, 1960;Lorković, 1941). ...
We present a genome assembly from an individual female Melanargia galathea (the marbled white; Arthropoda; Insecta; Lepidoptera; Nymphalidae). The genome sequence is 606 megabases in span. The majority (99.97%) of the assembly is scaffolded into 25 chromosomal pseudomolecules, with the W and Z sex chromosomes assembled.
... In recent years, an increasing number of assisted colonization events have been implemented worldwide. Examples are the relocation of swamp tortoise (Pseudemydura umbrina) in Australia (Seddon et al. 2015), the introduction of the conifer Torreya taxifolia in regions north of its current range the USA (McLachlan et al. 2007), and the introduction of two butterfly species (Melanargia galathea, Thymelicus sylvestris) north of their current range in the United Kingdom (Willis et al. 2009). All these species are assumed to become threatened by climate change in their current range, and thus assisted colonization was deemed to be a useful conservation strategy. ...
Owing to climate change and other anthropogenic environmental changes, the suitability of locations is changing for many biota that consequently have to adapt in situ or to move to other areas. To mitigate the effects of such pressures, assisted colonization is a conservation tool developed to reduce extinction risks by intentionally moving and releasing an organism outside its native range, and thus, to facilitate tracking changing environmental conditions. This conservation tool has been proposed for threatened animals or plants that presumably cannot adapt in situ or follow environmental changes by dispersal or migration. However, there have been contentious debates about the shortcomings and risks of implementing assisted colonization. For this reason, we evaluated the specific opinions of global experts for assisted colonization on potential risks and opportunities that this approach offers. For this purpose, we used an online survey targeted at authors of scientific publications on assisted colonization. The majority (82%) of the 48 respondents were in favor of applying assisted colonization for species that are at risk of global extinction due to anthropogenic environmental change. Most respondents agreed that assisted colonization should be considered only when other conservation tools are not available and that certain preconditions must be met. Some of these were already highlighted in the IUCN guidelines for assisted colonization and include a completed risk assessment, clearly defined management plans and secured political as well as financial support. The advocacy of assisted colonization in response to anthropogenic global environmental changes was only weakly dependent on the geographic origin of the experts and their working background. Regarding possible risks, most of the respondents were concerned about consequences like failure of the long-term establishment of the translocated species and the transmission of diseases and invasiveness potentially endangering native biota. To keep these risks as low as possible most of the experts agreed that a target area must have a reasonable carrying capacity to sustain a minimum viable population and that adaptive management should be implemented. Careful evaluation of assisted colonization projects is required to generate further evidence that needs to be considered for further developing conservation tools for the Anthropocene.
... Gleichzeitig können Verfrachtungen auf Grund der geringen Kosten eine effiziente Ergänzung zu Ansätzen sein, in denen Lebensräume im Anschluss an bestehenden Populationen geschaffen werden (Tainio et al. 2016). Zum Beispiel wurde in England mithilfe von Habitatmodellen gezielt neuer Lebensraum für bedrohte Schmetterlingsarten im Klimawandel identifiziert und dort dann neue Populationen bedrohter Arten über Verfrachtung erfolgreich etabliert (Willis et al. 2009). Auch in Finnland wurden erfolgreich Schmetterlinge verfrachtet (Kuussaari et al. 2015). ...
Der Klimawandel verändert unsere Wälder auf vielfältige Weise. Dabei werden negative Auswirkungen auf die Wälder, ihre Ökosystemleistungen und die Waldwirtschaft höchstwahrscheinlich überwiegen. Neben dem Anstieg der Temperatur und Änderung der Niederschlagsverteilung sind es vor allem die Zunahme von Extremereignissen und ihren Interaktionen, die zu erheblichen Störungen der Wälder führen werden. Die weit verbreiteten, massiven Waldschäden infolge der trockenen und heißen Jahre 2018 – 2019 haben bereits angedeutet, mit welcher Geschwindigkeit diese Veränderungen auch in Deutschland voranschreiten können. Daher erscheint es dringend geboten, umfassende Konzepte zu entwickeln, um die Wälder und ihre Bewirtschaftung so anzupassen, dass negative Folgen möglichst weit abgepuffert werden können, um auch in Zukunft die vielfältigen Ökosystemleistungen der Wälder für unsere Gesellschaft bereitzustellen. Wie beim Klimaschutz ist auch bei der Anpassung an den Klimawandel die Politik gefordert, Rahmenbedingungen zu schaffen, die im Sinne der Generationengerechtigkeit zukünftigen Generationen die gleichen Optionen für die Nutzung der Wälder bieten wie der heutigen Generation. Ebenso wie der Klimaschutz stellt die Anpassung der Wälder eine dringliche und massive Herausforderung für alle Beteiligten dar, die Paradigmenwechsel auf vielen Ebenen erfordert. Vor diesem Hintergrund hat der Wissenschaftliche Beirat für Waldpolitik (WBW) das vorliegende Gutachten erstellt.
Die Erstellung des Gutachtens erfolgte auf der Basis geprüfter wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse und richtet mit seinen Handlungsempfehlungen den Fokus auf die wesentlichen Einflussmöglichkeiten zur Aufrechterhaltung und Verbesserung der Bereitstellung der Ökosystemleistungen des Waldes im Klimawandel. In dem Gutachten werden zunächst die derzeit bekannten Auswirkungen der Klimaänderungen auf Wälder und ihre Ökosystemleistungen skizziert und die Anpassungsmöglichkeiten in unterschiedlichen Bereichen der Bewirtschaftung und Nutzung der Wälder aufzeigt. Diese Bereiche umfassen die Waldwirtschaft, Holzverarbeitung, Bioökonomie, Naturschutz, Bodenschutz, Gewässerschutz, Gesundheitsvorsorge, Erholung und Tourismus. Die daraus gezogenen Schlussfolgerungen münden in konkrete Handlungsempfehlungen für die Anpassung in insgesamt 13 Handlungsfeldern. Ziel der Empfehlungen ist es, Bedingungen dafür zu schaffen, dass Ökosystemleistungen der Wälder auch zukünftig entsprechend des gesellschaftlichen Bedarfs bereitgestellt werden können.
Zu diesem Zweck sollten Wälder, wo nötig, durch waldbauliche Unterstützung hin zu diversen, resilienten und anpassungsfähigen Wäldern entwickelt werden. Dies umfasst die aktive und passive Förderung der Vielfalt standortangepasster Baumarten und ihrer funktionalen und genetischen Diversität ebenso, wie den Schutz der Waldböden und ihrer Funktionen, die mit angepassten Maßnahmen erhalten und verbessert werden müssen. Hierzu werden konkrete Maßnahmen zur Anpassung von Waldbeständen, insbesondere in den Phasen der Verjüngung und Bestandespflege empfohlen, die mit verbesserten regionalen und überregionalen Daten zur Standorts- und Baumarteneignung unterstützt werden müssen.
Biodiversität im Wald ist eine wichtige Grundlage für die Anpassungsfähigkeit und Vielfalt aller Prozesse, welche die Ökosystemfunktionen und -leistungen erst ermöglichen. Sie muss bei der Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel daher von der genetischen bis zur Ökosystemebene umfassend berücksichtigt werden. Hier stellt sich insbesondere die Frage, welche Arten, Populationen und Lebensräume am stärksten gefährdet sind und in welchem Umfang sich diese mit dem Klimawandel verschieben werden bzw. verschieben können. Der Schutz der Biodiversität sollte daher auf ganzer Fläche, also auch außerhalb von Schutzgebieten berücksichtigt werden. Ein besonderes Augenmerk sollte daher auf die zukünftige Struktur und Baumartenzusammensetzung der Wälder gelegt werden. Natürliche Biotope, Habitate und Ökosysteme sind im Rahmen der Anpassung auf Landschaftsebene so weit wie möglich zu erhalten und zu fördern. Durch die Förderung von Biotopverbünden sollen die Bewegungsmöglichkeiten von Arten gewährleistet werden; bei wenig mobilen Arten sollte die Möglichkeit gezielter Ansiedlungen in zukünftigen Verbreitungsgebieten genutzt werden. Ein repräsentatives Biodiversitätsmonitoring und die Berücksichtigung des Klimawandels bei der Entwicklung von Schutzzielen sollen einen möglichst effizienten Naturschutz im Wald ermöglichen.
Der Erhalt der Wälder und ihrer vielfältigen Ökosystemleistungen hängt ganz erheblich von ihrem Schutz gegenüber biotischen und abiotischen Risiken ab, die in Zukunft zunehmen werden. Daher bedarf es eines deutlich verbesserten Risikomanagements in enger Verknüpfung mit einem zeitlich und räumlich hoch aufgelösten Monitoring, dem eine Schlüsselstellung im Anpassungsprozess der Wälder zugeschrieben wird. Zur Abwehr großflächiger Schäden in Wäldern bedarf es in Ergänzung des betrieblichen
Waldschutzes eines überregionalen Waldschutzmanagements, einer verbesserten Kontrolle von Schadorganismen und Waldkrankheiten, einer objektiven Schadensbewertung und Risikovorsorge aber auch der Forcierung restaurativer Maßnahmen zum Waldumbau.
Zunehmende Extremwetterereignisse, eine Reduktion der Produktivität der Wälder und Veränderungen im Baumartenspektrum werden bei gleichzeitig steigenden Kosten für Anpassung, Risikomanagement, Monitoring und die Bereitstellung von Ökosystemleistungen die Erträge aus der traditionellen Waldbewirtschaftung mit Fokus auf Rohholzproduktion langfristig reduzieren. Diese Entwicklungen verschärfen die ohnehin schon bestehenden strukturellen Probleme vor allem im kleinparzellierten Privat- und Körperschaftswald. Um vor diesem Hintergrund Anpassungsmaßnahmen effektiv umsetzen zu können, bedarf es der Schaffung stabiler institutioneller Strukturen, die die angemessene Betreuung des Nichtstaaatswaldes einschließt, und einer effizienteren Gestaltung der forstlichen Förderung. Dies sollte flankiert werden durch den Aufbau von Informationsplattformen, der Schaffung von Anreizen zur aktiven Waldbewirtschaftung und Bildung von größeren Bewirtschaftungseinheiten.
Mit der zu erwartenden Verringerung der Produktivität der Wälder und Verschiebung der Baumartenzusammensetzungen hin zu mehr Laubholz wird langfristig die Versorgung mit dem Rohstoff Holz insbesondere aus heimischen Wäldern eine große Herausforderung. Dies erfordert auch eine Anpassung der nachgelagerten Holzwirtschaft und Holzverwendung. Dafür müssen Wertschöpfungsketten etabliert werden, die die wirtschaftliche und klimawirksame Nutzung von Holzrohstoffen aus heimischer Waldbewirtschaftung optimieren und die Transformation zu einer Bioökonomie als Grundlage neuer umweltfreundlicher Produkte stützen. Anreizsysteme und technische Verfahren sollten entwickelt werden, die zur Erhöhung der stofflichen und Verringerung einer direkten energetischen Nutzung führen, insbesondere bei bisher schwer zu vermarktenden Holzsortimenten (Kalamitätsholz, Nadelstarkholz, Laubholz). Eine zentrale Rolle spielt dabei der Holzbau als unmittelbar verfügbare Brückentechnologie1 im Klimaschutz und zur Schonung endlicher Rohstoffe. Um die in Zukunft
1 Mit Brückentechnologie ist hier gemeint, dass der Holzbau aktuell die einzige anwendungsreife Technologie (negative emission technology) ist, die es ermöglicht, Kohlenstoff in nennenswertem Umfang außerhalb von Ökosystemen zu speichern. „Brücke“ bedeutet hierbei, dass diese Technologie deshalb ab sofort eingesetzt werden sollte, um diese Kohlenstoffspeicherung umzusetzen bis in der Zukunft möglicherweise andere Technologien wie beispielsweise carbon capture and storage oder carbon capture and usage Technologien in eine Anwendungsreife (TRL 9) kommen. Dies bedeutet nicht, dass danach der Holzbau keine Bedeutung mehr hat, aber der Begriff unterstreicht die Dringlichkeit, diese Möglichkeit der Kohlenstoffspeicherung sofort einzusetzen.im Inland zurückgehende Bereitstellung von Nadelholzsortimenten teilweise ersetzen zu können, müssen Voraussetzungen für die Generierung neuer Holzstoffquellen aus Gebraucht- und Altholz geschaffen realisiert werden. Um langfristig eine ausreichende Versorgung mit Nadelholz sicherzustellen, sollte ein risikoarmer Anbau klimaangepasster Nadelbaumarten in Mischbeständen erfolgen. Temporäre Marktverwerfungen nach großflächigen Störungen sollte mit reaktionsfähigen Märkten und entsprechenden Logistik- und Lagerstrukturen entgegengewirkt werden.
Wälder sind eine wichtige Grundlage sogenannter kultureller Ökosystemleistungen. Die Attraktivität von Wäldern für die Freizeit- und Erholungsnutzung im Zuge der erwarteten klimatischen Veränderungen wird wahrscheinlich weiterhin zunehmen. Gleichzeitig kommt es zu Veränderungen gewohnter Wald- und Landschaftsbilder und zu veränderten Voraussetzungen für verschiedenste Freizeitaktivitäten im Wald. Die Bereitstellung von Erholungsleistungen und Reduktion möglicher Konflikte zwischen Erholungsnutzung und der Holzernte steigert den Aufwand der Waldbewirtschaftung, gerade in den urbanen Räumen. Eine Honorierung der Ökosystemleistungen für Erholung, Sport und Tourismus ist daher neben kommunikativen und konfliktmindernden Maßnahmen ein wichtiger Baustein zur zukünftigen Gestaltung von klimaresilienten Erholungswäldern.
Die notwendigen Maßnahmen zur Aufrechterhaltung und Verbesserung der Bereitstellung von Ökosystemleistungen der Wälder sind sehr umfangreich und kostenintensiv. Nach Einschätzung des WBW übersteigen die Aufwendungen für eine rasche und effektive Anpassung der Wälder an den Klimawandel deutlich ein Niveau, das man vom nicht-staatlichen Waldbesitz im Rahmen der Gemeinwohlverpflichtung des Eigentums erwarten kann. Gegenwärtig beruhen die Einnahmen der Forstbetriebe fast ausschließlich auf Erlösen aus dem Holzverkauf, wohingegen die Bereitstellung der bisher nicht honorierten, gesellschaftlich wichtigen Ökosystemleistungen für Klimaschutz, Wasserschutz, Naturschutz, Erholung etc. als Lasten wahrgenommen werden. Daher ist eine zentrale Empfehlung dieses Gutachtens, dass die öffentliche Hand Vergütungssysteme für die Ökosystemleistungen des Waldes schafft, die den Forstbetrieben langfristig planbare Einnahmen aus der Bereitstellung von Ökosystemleistungen ermöglichen. Eine grundsätzliche und effiziente Möglichkeit hierfür sehen wir darin, nicht einzelne Ökosystemleistungen separat zu honorieren, sondern die Grundlage für die zukünftige Erbringung aller Ökosystemleistungen, die Anpassungsfähigkeit2 der Wälder an den Klimawandel, als Leistung zu betrachten. Empfohlen wird daher eine am Zustand der Wälder orientierte Zahlung, die als eine notwendige Ergänzung der derzeit gängigen maßnahmenorientierten Förderung gesehen wird.
Der rasch voranschreitende Klimawandel beschleunigt die Erosion der Relevanz des bisherigen Erfahrungswissens und führt zu einer Zunahme von Unsicherheiten. Um die Anpassung von Wäldern, Wald- und Holzwirtschaft und anderen relevanten Sektoren an den Klimawandel effektiv und effizient zu gestalten, wird eine Stärkung forstwissenschaftlicher, wald- und holzproduktbezogener Forschung empfohlen. Dabei geht es insbesondere um eine strategische Ausrichtung und die Entwicklung neuer Forschungsansätze im Sinne einer Nachhaltigkeitsforschung, die sich an Dringlichkeit, Lösungsorientierung und Implementierung ausrichtet. Dafür werden entsprechend langfristig angelegte Forschungsinfrastrukturen und Kapazitäten ebenso benötigt wie eine bessere Vernetzung und Kooperation zwischen bestehenden Forschungseinrichtungen.
Zur Beförderung des Transformationsprozesses spricht der WBW darüber hinaus Empfehlungen zu Änderungen in der Aus- und Weiterbildung, den Kommunikationsstrategien, sowie zur Beseitigung von Anpassungshemmnissen und -konflikten in den verschiedenen Bereichen aus.
... Three main factors predominantly account for how a subset of species undergo expansion (McGeoch & Latombe, 2016). First, species can respond positively to successful interventions in their habitats that were planned to avoid their extinction (Willis et al., 2009;Neel et al., 2012). Second, steadily increasing evidence shows that populations and species can expand along at least one margin of their distribution range following global changes in temperature and habitats (e.g. ...
Global changes are severely affecting pollinator insect communities worldwide, resulting in repeated patterns of species extirpations and extinctions. Whilst negative population trends within this functional group have understandably received much attention in recent decades, another facet of global changes has been overshadowed: species undergoing expansion. Here, we review the factors and traits that have allowed a fraction of the pollinating entomofauna to take advantage of global environmental change. Sufficient mobility, high resistance to acute heat stress, and inherent adaptation to warmer climates appear to be key traits that allow pollinators to persist and even expand in the face of climate change. An overall flexibility in dietary and nesting requirements is common in expanding species, although niche specialization can also drive expansion under specific contexts. The numerous consequences of wild and domesticated pollinator expansions, including competition for resources, pathogen spread, and hybridization with native wildlife, are also discussed. Overall, we show that the traits and factors involved in the success stories of expanding pollinators are mostly species specific and context dependent, rendering generalizations of ‘winning traits’ complicated. This work illustrates the increasing need to consider expansion and its numerous consequences as significant facets of global changes and encourages efforts to monitor the impacts of expanding insect pollinators, particularly exotic species, on natural ecosystems.
... An understanding of dispersal can contribute to the success, and speed of success, of species reintroduction programmes by aiding release site location selection based on known dispersal behaviour and spatial patterns of habitat quality and availability; shown for example in the Mauritius kestrel Falco punctatus (Burgess et al., 2008) and in the assisted colonisation of two butterfly species (Willis et al., 2009). ...
Conservation resources are limited and need to be used where they can be most effective. Deciding where within a species range to implement conservation interventions requires knowledge of where threats operate and consideration of multiple spatial issues concerning patterns in abundance across species' ranges, and geographical and environmental gradients in these and other traits across species' ranges. Although these biogeographical patterns have been of great interest to ecologists for many years, the implications of these patterns for conservation are often unclear. Here we review these patterns in the context of targeting spatial conservation. We find that an inconsistent use of terminology, a lack of consistent rules and the use of imperfect datasets, hampers us drawing firm conclusions on the nature of these patterns. Evidence that abundance and ecological traits change systematically towards range edges is inconclusive. Abundance variation is influenced by many factors independent of position within a species range, including habitat type, habitat quality, environment, interspecific competition, dispersal ecology and metapopulation dynamics. This results in complex textured abundance patterns compared to a simple theoretical core-edge gradient. We conclude that any conservation practitioner looking to target the location of interventions will need to examine these patterns and processes for the species of interest. Current knowledge does not adequately inform spatial conservation prioritization for single-species conservation programmes and incorporating the complexities of spatial processes is challenging. The development of tools to inform spatial targeting of resources for single- or multiple-species conservation is required urgently to enable better use of conservation resources.
... In Western Australia, one of the rarest reptile species in the world, the Western swamp turtle (Pseudemydura umbrina), threatened by drying climate conditions, has been translocated to areas south of its current range that are projected to be hydrologically suitable in the future (Dade et al. 2014;Lewis 2016;Mitchell et al. 2016). In the Scottish Highlands, an alpine lichen (Flavocetraria nivalis) underwent experimental translocation to higher elevations to inform modeling of habitat suitability under climate change (Brooker et al. 2017), and two butterfly species were introduced to sites outside their native range in northern England (Willis et al. 2009). In all of these examples, the current ranges of the species are projected to become unsuitable due to increasing temperatures. ...
Species that cannot adapt or keep pace with a changing climate are likely to need human intervention to shift to more suitable climates. While hundreds of articles mention using translocation as a climate-change adaptation tool, in practice, assisted migration as a conservation action remains rare, especially for animals. This is likely due to concern over introducing species to places where they may become invasive. However, there are other barriers to consider, such as time-frame mismatch, sociopolitical, knowledge and uncertainty barriers to conservationists adopting assisted migration as a go-to strategy. We recommend the following to advance assisted migration as a conservation tool: attempt assisted migrations at small scales, translocate species with little invasion risk, adopt robust monitoring protocols that trigger an active response, and promote political and public support.
... Sainsbury et al. (2020) allude to successful conservation translocations being only temporary, destined eventually to succumb to SQPV epidemics. However, translocating species often means the original threat remains (e.g., climatic change) but is ameliorated at the new site (see Chauvenet, Ewen, Armstrong, & Pettorelli, 2013;Willis et al., 2009). As grey squirrels currently occupy every county in England, scientifically well-conceived red squirrel translocation into highly defendable geography is a legitimate management tool to explore in synergy with wider national conservation approaches including pine marten (Martes martes) restoration (Sheehy, Sutherland, O'Reilly, & Lambin, 2018). ...
... Approaches to overcome some of these limitations include combining SDMs 360 with modelled changes to resource or habitat distributions under global change scenarios (Araújo & Luoto, 2007;Romo et al., 2014;Wessely et al., 2017;Filazzola et al., 2020). Field experiments can be used to test model fit: for example, transplants demonstrate fitness declines for several insect species in environments predicted by niche models to be unfavourable (Lee-Yaw et al., 2016), and successful introductions have been conducted for 365 butterfly species by targeting habitats beyond current range margins that were predicted to be suitable by SDMs (Willis et al., 2009). ...
1. Insects have emerged as causes célèbres for widespread concern about human effects on global biodiversity. Here, we consider how insects provide opportunities both to understand the ecological effects of global change and to enhance environmental conservation.
2. Despite a limited time frame and geographic extent of quantitative evidence, recent studies of changes to the abundance, distribution and diversity of insects indicate temporally heterogeneous trends which vary among taxa, regions and biotopes. These results suggest a) that insect numbers are responding to multiple stressors in the wider context of the changes to fitness, abundance, distributions and biotic interactions that result from habitat and climate change; and b) that habitat specialists with narrow geographic ranges may be particularly at risk.
3. Predictions of the effects of global change on insects based on macroecology and ecophysiology can be tested by combining approaches, including experiments and observations over gradients of latitude, elevation and urbanization; as well as innovative quantitative analyses of data from standardized monitoring schemes and opportunistic data from historical collections and citizen science. Linking these complementary approaches helps to detect the mechanisms influencing insect responses to the interacting drivers of global change and to inform conservation.
4. The impetus and debate provoked by recent high profile reports of insect declines provide opportunities to promote insect conservation, but also to obtain comprehensive evidence for the effects of global change on biodiversity and thus develop and communicate measures to mitigate the threats to ecosystems from global change.
... However, others argue that the arrival of new species is typical of ecosystem changes in the Anthropocene and that translocations mirror colonizations occurring as a consequence of current environmental change(Thomas, 2011). Translocations of E. epiphron and other butterflies into unoccupied but climatically suitable areas have been successful(Cizek, Bakesova, Kuras, Benes, & Konvicka, 2003;Willis et al., 2009), and cold-adapted insects may represent good targets for translocations given that the climate is rapidly deteriorating for them in many parts of their range, and they may find it difficult to colonize new areas across inhospitable landscapes ...
Abstract Aim Climatic changes throughout the Pleistocene have strongly modified species distributions. We examine how these range shifts have affected the genetic diversity of a montane butterfly species and whether the genetic diversity in the extant populations is threatened by future climate change. Location Europe. Taxon Erebia epiphron Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae. Methods We analyzed mtDNA to map current genetic diversity and differentiation of E. epiphron across Europe to identify population refugia and postglacial range shifts. We used species distribution modeling (SDM) to hindcast distributions over the last 21,000 years to identify source locations of extant populations and to project distributions into the future (2070) to predict potential losses in genetic diversity. Results We found substantial genetic diversity unique to specific regions within Europe (total number of haplotypes = 31, number of unique haplotypes = 27, Hd = 0.9). Genetic data and SDM hindcasting suggest long‐term separation and survival of discrete populations. Particularly, high rates of unique diversity in postglacially colonized sites in England (Hd = 0.64) suggest this population was colonized from a now extinct cryptic refugium. Under future climate change, SDMs predict loss of climate suitability for E. epiphron, particularly at lower elevations (
... Space use Studies measuring all movement/dispersal of translocated individuals. This will include notably home range measurements, or euclidean distance travelled [43] Demography Studies outlining the changes in number of individuals, males/females, of the translocated population i.e. population growth overtime [44,45] Survival Studies illustrating precisely the proportion of individuals alive or level of mortality since translocation [46] Reproduction Any impacts on reproduction, expressed by number of young born since translocation, or specifically the survival rate of offspring [47] Feeding All impacts specifically on diet and feeding of translocated individuals. (Nb. ...
Background
Conversion, fragmentation, and loss of natural habitats are among the main causes of declining species’ populations worldwide. Protected areas are therefore crucial for biodiversity as they provide refuge and ensure key ecological processes. Wildlife translocations, defined as “the deliberate movement of organisms from one site for release in another”, have been used in conjunction as a conservation tool for a number of decades as wild populations become increasingly fragmented and endangered. Not only are translocations used to bolster the viability of imperiled species but are also recommended for improving population resilience and adapting species’ ranges in response to climate change. Despite translocation being a recognised conservation tool, it remains complex with variable results due to the different factors that can determine its success. Accordingly, the Map will investigate the existing evidence on the links between different types of wildlife translocation interventions and factors that may be important to consider for planning. This will provide an overview of relevant studies for possible future syntheses, and may help to inform management decisions.
Method
We will perform a thorough search of peer-reviewed journal articles and grey literature sources documenting the occurrence of translocations in the context of protected areas. Two databases will be used: Web of science core collection and Scopus, with a supplementary search in Google Scholar. Multiple key specialized websites will also be used. All bibliographic data will be extracted, managed, and screened in Microsoft excel. Three screening stages will be undertaken (title, then abstract, then full texts) against predefined inclusion criteria. The retained relevant literature will be subjected to coding and meta-data extraction. No formal validity appraisal will be undertaken. The Map will particularly highlight translocation operations in terms of origin and destination (i.e. translocating from one protected area to another, within the same area, and from and to non-protected areas) by taxonomic group, among other important factors (e.g. number of individuals, age class, release strategy, distance between capture and release sites etc.). Finally, a database will be provided along with a Map narratively describing the evidence with summary figures and tables of pertinent study characteristics.
... Although it is a radical action, in some cases, assisted migration may be the only way to prevent extinction due to human-driven environmental change. Advocates of assisted migration argue that humans have been translocating plants and animals throughout history (Vitt et al. 2010) and point out that assisted migration has been successfully applied in the past without negative repercussions (Schlaepfer et al. 2009;Willis et al. 2009). Despite its proponents, assisted migration remains a contentious conservation action (e.g., McLachlan et al. 2007;Gallagher et al. 2015;Webster et al. 2017). ...
Assisted migration is a controversial conservation measure that aims to protect threatened species by moving part of their population outside its natural range. Although this could save species from extinction, it also introduces a range of risks. The magnitude of the threat to recipient ecosystems has not been investigated quantitatively, despite being the most common criticism leveled at the action. We used an ensemble modeling framework to estimate the risks of assisted migration to existing species within ecosystems. With this approach, we calculated the consequences of an assisted migration project across a very large combination of translocated species and recipient ecosystems. We predicted the probability of a successful assisted migration and the number of local extinctions would result from establishment of the translocated species. Using an ensemble of
1.5
×
10
6
simulated 15-species recipient ecosystems, we estimated that translocated species will successfully establish in 83% of cases if introduced to stable, high-quality habitats. However, assisted migration projects were estimated to cause an average of 0.6 extinctions and 5% of successful translocations triggered 4 or more local extinctions. Quantifying the impacts to species within recipient ecosystems is critical to help managers weigh the benefits and negative consequences of assisted migration.
... Translocation experiments can be used to test hypotheses on factors limiting species distribution. By moving individuals beyond the current range margin of the species, and monitoring their fitness and establishment success, we can infer the relative importance of climate, dispersal and biotic interactions in shaping species distributions, and hence predict the species' fate in a changing climate Pelini et al., 2009;Willis et al., 2009). Assisted colonisation, i.e. translocation with the aim of establishing populations in regions that the species could not reach by itself, has been proposed as a possible tool to help species colonise new suitable habitats they would have been unable to reach otherwise. ...
1. Translocation experiments can be used to study the factors limiting species’ distributions and to infer potential drivers of successful colonisation during range shifts.
2. To study the expansion dynamics of the butterfly Pyrgus armoricanus in southern Sweden and to find out whether its distribution was limited by climate, translocation experiments were carried out within and 50-60 km beyond its natural range margin. Populations were monitored for eight years following the translocation.
3. Although most translocation attempts failed, P. armoricanus was able to survive in two sites north of its current range limit. One of them eventually led to expansion and establishment of a viable metapopulation. Translocation success appeared to be independent of latitude, suggesting that climate is not the main factor determining the current northern distribution limits of this butterfly.
4. Population growth and secondary spread in the expanding population was positively related to patch area and connectivity, while local habitat quality seemed to be less important.
5. The successful translocation and the importance of a well-connected patch network suggest that the current distribution of P. armoricanus is limited by its low dispersal ability combined with the fragmentation of its habitat, making it unlikely to track its changing climatic niche. Assisted migration could be an effective tool for such species, but long-term evidence for its effectiveness is not yet available.
... A key component in planning assisted colonization is the identifi cation of areas that match the biotic and abiotic needs of a focal species under future climate scenarios. Climate-envelope models are being used to determine species' future habitat distributions to guide some of the fi rst assisted colonizations of butterfl ies in the United Kingdom (Willis et al. 2009). But static bioclimatic envelope models might not adequately account for species' ability to disperse, nor for changing demographic processes as habitat shifts, so more complex integrative climate suitability models will be required (Huntley et al. 2010). ...
... Increasing habitat patch size can support more-resilient populations (26), and increasing habitat connectivity (27) enables some species to track changing climatic conditions in fragmented landscapes. Direct interventions range from targeted management of vulnerable species (28) and species translocation (29,30) to manipulating habitats, e.g., by shading watercourses with trees to reduce water temperatures (31,32). Adjusting conservation objectives and ways of working is becoming increasingly necessary as climate change impacts increase; for example, changing species distributions may mean that species will need protection in places they did not formerly inhabit (33,34). ...
Measuring mitigation and adaptation
As more and more carbon dioxide is emitted into the atmosphere, humans and the natural world are beset by the damaging consequences of a rapidly changing climate. Natural and seminatural ecosystems are likely to be the best starting place for immediate adaptation and mitigation solutions. First, though, many natural environments need restoration to maximize their own resilience to climate change. In reviewing our options, Morecroft et al. point out that we can directly observe the success of mitigation strategies by quantifying atmospheric carbon dioxide. Successful adaptation is more challenging because it involves a range of social and biodiversity measures. However, we could make matters worse if we do not constantly monitor the effects of the interventions we devise and react flexibly as changing conditions unfold.
Science , this issue p. eaaw9256
... Even though SDM predictions mostly range from zero to one, SDM predictions are often discretised into binary presence-absence maps (i.e. comprising only zeros and ones) used to evaluate wildlife management options, to identify appropriate conservation translocation sites and to evaluate model performance (Willis et al. 2009;Fordham et al. 2012;Liu et al. 2013) with confusion matrix-based performance metrics. These confusion matrices (Table 1) summarise the correspondence between predictions and observations, by providing the counts of (a) true presences, (b) false presences (commissions), (c) false absences (omissions) and (d) true absences. ...
Model evaluation metrics play a critical role in the selection of adequate species distribution models for conservation and for any application of species distribution modelling (SDM) in general. The responses of these metrics to modelling conditions, however, are rarely taken into account. This leads to inadequate model selection, downstream analyses and uniformed decisions. To aid modellers in critically assessing modelling conditions when choosing and interpreting model evaluation metrics, we analysed the responses of the True Skill Statistic (TSS) under a variety of presence-background modelling conditions using purely theoretical scenarios. We then compared these responses with those of two evaluation metrics commonly applied in the field of meteorology which have potential for use in SDM: the Odds Ratio Skill Score (ORSS) and the Symmetric Extremal Dependence Index (SEDI). We demonstrate that (1) large cell number totals in the confusion matrix, which is strongly biased towards ‘true’ absences in presence-background SDM and (2) low prevalence both compromise model evaluation with TSS. This is since (1) TSS fails to differentiate useful from random models at extreme prevalence levels if the confusion matrix cell number total exceeds ~30,000 cells and (2) TSS converges to hit rate (sensitivity) when prevalence is lower than ~2.5%. We conclude that SEDI is optimal for most presence-background SDM initiatives. Further, ORSS may provide a better alternative if absence data are available or if equal error weighting is strictly required.
... Les populations nouvellement établies se sont implantées et étaient toujours florissantes en 2008, ce qui a conforté l'idée selon laquelle l'approche pourrait être généralisée pour faciliter les changements de parcours induits par le climat. (Willis et al., 2009) La conservation devrait inclure la création d'un nouvel habitat qui devrait être étendu aux amphibiensen particulier aux grenouillesm dont j'ai déjà parlé. Comme je l'ai expliqué plus haut, la chytridiomycose est une maladie résultant d'une infection par un champignon, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ou Bd. ...
La valeur instrumentale de la biodiversité a été la pierre angulaire de débats importants sur sa perte, qui, sans aucun doute, aura un impact négatif sur notre environnement en réduisant ou en supprimant les services écosystémiques que la plupart d'entre nous apprécient, à tel point que notre bien-être en dépend. Néanmoins, tous les êtres vivants sur cette planète ont été soumis à un assaut sans précédent de la part de l'humanité. L'assaut est à la fois direct et indirect. Direct parce que nous poussons les espèces vulnérables au seuil de l'extinction en les chassant et en les surexploitant. Indirect car certaines de nos activités entraînent des changements climatiques, affectant ainsi la flore et la faune terrestres et marines. Et cela dure depuis des siècles – du moins depuis le début de la révolution industrielle. À notre désir insatiable de modifier continuellement l'environnement, s'ajoute la croissance démographique, qui a été un catalyseur dans la dégradation de l'environnement car plus de personnes signifient plus de nourriture, donc plus de terres à usage agricole et plus de terres nécessaires pour l'hébergement et la construction de villes. Le siècle dernier a été marqué par l’augmentation de la taille de la population et les capacités technologiques de notre espèce, deux facteurs qui accélèrent l’extinction d’autres espèces. Cela a poussé les scientifiques à parler de la sixième grande vague d’extinction, qui est bien sûr différente des cinq premières parce qu’elles ont été causées par des événements naturels et non par des activités d’espèces intelligentes. Le présent rapport a pour objectif d’examiner les chances que notre environnement soit durable ou viable à l’avenir et les obstacles potentiels qu’il pourrait rencontrer à trois niveaux différents: social, économique et politique.
... The newly established populations took hold and were still thriving in 2008, giving credence to the idea that the approach could be rolled out more widely to facilitate climate-induced range shifts. (Willis et al., 2009) Conservation should include the creation of new habitat that should be extended to amphibians particular to frogswhich I previously talked about. As I explained above, Chytridiomycosis is a condition resulting from an infection from a fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, or Bd for short. ...
The instrumental value of biodiversity has been the cornerstone of major debates over its loss, which, without doubt, will negatively impact our environment by either reducing or doing away with ecosystems services that most of us relish, so much so that our well-being depends on it. Nevertheless, all living things on this planet have been subject to an unprecedented assault at the hand of humanity. The assault is both direct and indirect. Direct because we drive vulnerable species to the brink of extinction by overhunting and overfishing them. Indirect because some of our activities causes the climate to change, thus affecting both land and marine flora and fauna. And this has been going on for centuries – at least since the start of the Industrial Revolution. Added to our insatiable desire to continuously alter the environment, is population growth, which has been a catalyst in the degradation of the environment for more people means more food, thus, more land for agricultural use and more land needed for accommodation and to build cities. The past century was marked by population size increase and technological capabilities of our species, two factors that put the extinction of other species on the fast track. That has prompted scientists to talk about the sixth great extinction wave, which is, of course, different from the first five because they were caused by natural events and not by intelligent species’ activities. This report has for goal to consider the chances that our environment will be sustainable or viable in the future and the potential obstacles it might encounter at three different levels: social, economic, and political.
... Due to habitat fragmentation and changing climatic conditions, species are not always able to track their optimal climatic niche and, therefore, translocation of individuals to climatically suitable areas ("assisted migration/colonisation") can be applied as a species conservation measure (e.g. McLachlan et al. 2007;Willis et al. 2009;Thomas 2011). ...
The Chequered Skipper Carterocephalus palaemon inhabits a variety of habitats in NW Europe: heathlands, wet grasslands and chalk grasslands, usually at woodland edges and wide rides and glades in different types of woodlands. It mainly uses broadleaved grasses such as Molinia, Calamagrostis and Brachypodium as host plants. The species became extinct in England in 1976 and an earlier reintroduction attempt in 1995-99 was unsuccessful. Using species distribution models, we located potential source regions in NW Europe for its reintroduction to England. To do so, we gathered distribution data of the butterfly and environmental variables (Corine Land Cover and climate data) from four regions in Belgium (Belgian Campine, Fagne-Famenne-Calestienne, Ardenne-Thiérache and Gaume-Lorraine), two in the Netherlands (Achterhoek and Dutch Campine) and one in the United Kingdom (Argyll, Scotland). We calibrated the models in these regions and projected them to the Rockingham Forest landscape, the reintroduction site in England. The Fagne-Famenne-Calestienne and the Gaume-Lorraine model resulted in the highest average probability when projected to the Rockingham Forest landscape. Based on additional expert knowledge on potential host plant abundance and the presence of large source populations, the Fagne-Famenne-Calestienne was selected as the source region for the reintroduction of the Chequered Skipper to England. To assess the possible impact of climate change, we also built a model with present-day climate data in NW Europe and modelled the probability of occurrence in the Rockingham Forest landscape in the year 2070. The species was predicted to increase in the Rockingham Forest landscape under future climate conditions.
... Despite this, governmental agencies, international organizations, and conservation groups are recommending, or even beginning to implement, forms of assisted evolution as climate change adaptation strategies (Foden et al., 2008;Shirey and Lamberti, 2010;Colombo et al., 2018). Managed relocation is already being undertaken for some terrestrial systems (e.g., Marris, 2009;Willis et al., 2009). In the ocean, ecologists are beginning to explore the feasibility, risks and potential of assisted evolution (van Oppen et al., 2015(van Oppen et al., , 2017Chakravarti and van Oppen, 2018). ...
Climate change is outpacing existing rates of evolution and adaptation for many marine organisms. Human societies are pushing hard to find new solutions to save and protect marine ecosystems, generating research on manipulating genetics of wild organisms for the goal of conservation. This – “assisted evolution” – raises challenging ethical questions because the intention is not to revert to a previous status quo, but to modify a community so that it survives better in the conditions we have created. In so doing, our role changes toward “designers” of nature, which requires a rethinking of what is natural, and whether altering or influencing genetics of wild organisms changes the way we conceptualize nature. Assisted evolution could also perpetuate damaging habits and dispositions, such as commodification and technological intervention, which have caused the harm in the first place. Even if we feel morally obliged to repair ecosystems, we still risk further havoc if our attempts to fix our damage are affected by ignorance. Still, from an ethical point of view, we offer cautious support for research on assisted evolution tools. However, we must be clear that we are using these approaches for our own benefit, and should only proceed when they are adequately understood and other options are exhausted. In many cases, we should instead focus our efforts on protecting what we can, minimizing future damage, and understanding future changes. Either way, we need stronger ethical regulations on applying assisted evolution techniques in marine conservation so that there is sufficient deliberation before we use these tools.
... This strategy is especially suitable if the species is poor at self-dispersal or if there are barriers to its ability to move, and new suitable habitat exists or is emerging elsewhere (Hällfors et al., 2017). Assisted migration has been tried on a small scale with various species, including marbled white butterflies in the UK (Willis et al., 2009). And it's been explicitly discussed by conservation biologists as an option for the American pika, which is poor at self-dispersal, but for which there might be appropriate habitat elsewhere (Wilkening et al., 2015). ...
... Our data revealed relatively large and concentrated hotspots overlapping across climate scenarios, supporting broad-scale management plans for multiple bumblebee species. These hotspots include candidate sites where assisted colonisation efforts could be concentrated and would benefit several species 76 . Such efforts might help species maintain broader geographical ranges than would otherwise be possible, reducing the prospects of species extinctions and erosion of pollination services associated with rapid climate change 26,28,77,78 . ...
Climate change has shaped bee distributions over the past century. Here, we conducted the first species-specific assessment of future climate change impacts on North American bumblebee distributions, using the most recent global change scenarios developed in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We assessed potential shifts in bumblebee species distributions with models generated using Maxent. We tested different assumptions about bumblebee species' dispersal capacities, drawing on observed patterns of range shifts to date, dispersal rates observed for bumblebee queens, and, lastly, assuming unlimited dispersal. Models show significant contractions of current ranges even under scenarios in which dispersal rates were high. Results suggest that dispersal rates may not suffice for bumblebees to track climate change as rapidly as required under any IPCC scenario for future climate change. Areas where species losses are projected overlap for many species and climate scenarios, and are concentrated in eastern parts of the continent. Models also show overlap for range expansions across many species, suggesting the presence of "hotspots" where management activities could benefit many species, across all climate scenarios. Broad-scale strategies are likely to be necessary to improve bumblebee conservation prospects under climate change.
... Dergelijk verleende kolonisatie heeft tot heftige wetenschappelijke debatten geleid, met vóór-en tégenstanders(Ricciardi & Simberloff 2009, Thomas 2011. Niettemin zijn bijvoorbeeld de introducties van Dambordje en Geelsprietdikkopje in Noord-Engeland reeds op deze gronden gebaseerd(Willis et al. 2009).Vormen van menselijke verstoring die de duurzaamheid van gemeenschappen in het gedrang brengen, moeten uiteraard worden vermeden. Betreding speelt hierbij een enigszins ambigue rol, omdat milde vormen (bv. ...
An ecosystem vision for the Flemish coastal zone (Belgium) that integrates socio-economic demands (ecosystem services) with nature values. Report describes the vision and the methodology developed to integrate ecosystem services with nature values. Additionally, an evaluation framework was developed to assess impacts on the coastal ecosystem.
... It addresses the same underpinning mechanism as low-regrets approaches that build connectivity (8C1), i.e., facilitating species dispersion to suitable habitats, but is considered where natural dispersion is unlikely to meet con- servation goals. The approach is often contested owing to potential negative consequences to the recipient ecosystem or even to the target species; hence much of the literature revolves around methodological, ethical, and legal debate ( Schwartz and Martin 2013), with fewer examples of suc- cessful application ( Willis et al. 2009, Van der Veken et al. 2012). Nevertheless, there are numerous examples of success in non-climate-related translocation efforts (Soorae 2016). ...
Changes in the Earth's climate are accelerating, prompting increasing calls to ensure that investments in ecological restoration and nature conservation accommodate such changes. To acknowledge this need, we propose the term ‘ecological renovation’ to describe ecological management and nature conservation actions that actively allow for environmental change. To evaluate and progress the development of ecological renovation and related intervention options, we reviewed the literature and established a typology of options that have been proposed. We explored how these options address emerging principles underpinning climate‐adapted conservation goals, and whether the balance of approaches reflected in our typology are likely to be sufficient given expected rapid rates of climate change. Our typology recognizes a matrix of 23 intervention option types arranged on the basis of underpinning ecological mechanisms (‘ameliorate changing conditions’ or ‘build adaptive capacity’) on one axis, and the nature of the tools used to manipulate them (‘low‐regrets’ or ‘climate‐targeted’) on the other. Despite a burgeoning literature since 2008, we found that the majority of effort has consistently focused on ‘low‐regrets’ adaptation approaches that aim to build adaptive capacity. This is in many ways desirable, but a paradigm shift enabling greater attention to ‘climate‐targeted’ approaches is likely to be needed as climate change accelerates. When assessed against five emerging principles for setting nature conservation goals in a changing climate, only one option type could deliver to all five, and we identified a conflict between ‘climate‐targeted’ options and ‘wildness’ values that calls for deeper evaluation. Importantly, much of the inference in the 473 reviewed studies was drawn from ecological reasoning and modelling, with only 16% offering new empirical evidence. We also noted significant biases towards North America and Europe, forest ecosystems, trees and vertebrates. To address these limitations and help shift the paradigm towards humans as ‘renovators’ rather than ‘restorers’ of a prior world, we propose that ecological researchers contribute by (1) informing societal discourse towards adapting nature conservation goals to climate change, (2) adjusting and upscaling conservation planning to accommodate this suite of climate‐adapted goals, and (3) reconceptualizing experimental approaches to increase empirical evidence and expedite innovation of tools to address change. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
... The example cited used an introduced species, requiring the additional assumption that the species had fully occupied its potential realizable niche in the region to which it had been introduced. A variation on this approach fits a model to the known observed range of a species and then either tests the ability of that model to predict as yet unrecorded localities for the species (e.g., Busby, 1991), or else tests the ability of the model to predict suitable but as yet unoccupied localities by making deliberate introductions to such localities and assessing whether or not the species is able to establish a population and thrive at those localities (e.g., Willis et al., 2009). ...
Assessing species' vulnerability to climate change is a prerequisite for developing effective strategies to conserve them. The last three decades have seen exponential growth in the number of studies evaluating how, how much, why, when, and where species will be impacted by climate change. We provide an overview of the rapidly developing field of climate change vulnerability assessment (CCVA) and describe key concepts, terms, steps and considerations. We stress the importance of identifying the full range of pressures, impacts and their associated mechanisms that species face and using this as a basis for selecting the appropriate assessment approaches for quantifying vulnerability. We outline four CCVA assessment approaches, namely trait‐based, correlative, mechanistic and combined approaches and discuss their use. Since any assessment can deliver unreliable or even misleading results when incorrect data and parameters are applied, we discuss finding, selecting, and applying input data and provide examples of open‐access resources. Because rare, small‐range, and declining‐range species are often of particular conservation concern while also posing significant challenges for CCVA, we describe alternative ways to assess them. We also describe how CCVAs can be used to inform IUCN Red List assessments of extinction risk. Finally, we suggest future directions in this field and propose areas where research efforts may be particularly valuable.
This article is categorized under:
• Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Extinction Risk
... There may also be opportunities for range expansion in areas outside of the historical range (e.g., above waterfalls) where the amount of available habitat portends a high probability of long-term persistence and where limiting factors are minimal. Assisted migration outside of historical ranges is becoming increasingly common in conservation, particularly to areas that are expected to be climatically suitable in the future (Willis et al. 2009;Loss et al. 2011;Payne and Bro-Jorgensen 2016). However, such decisions have ethical and ecological concerns (McLachlan et al. 2007;IUCN SSC 2013), and a thorough understanding of the conservation benefits and consequences is paramount. ...
... Species occur and persist under specific environmental conditions depending on the biological requirements making their ecological niche (Chase & Leibold, 2003). Species-specific abiotic and biotic preferences are expected to influence their response to environmental changes, and then to explain distribution changes according to their dispersal abilities (Thuiller et al., 2005;Devictor et al., 2008;Zhu et al., 2012; but see Willis et al., 2009 for successful assisted colonisation). ...
1. In the context of ongoing global changes, it is crucial to characterize and understand the variation of species distributions. For insects, despite increasing emphasis on conservation issues, evidence of range changes over large spatial and temporal scales remains scarce.
2. We aimed to examine distribution changes of butterflies and dragonflies in Western Europe over 34 years and to determine the influence of environmental changes, especially land cover, and the roles of species ecology in the differential responses. We analyzed the diachronic variations by compiling presence data in France, Belgium and Luxembourg for
241 butterfly and 96 dragonfly taxa.
3. We found contrasting patterns of range dynamics between these two groups, i.e. a strong latitudinal gradient of disappearance for butterflies (from NW to SE with significantly higher rate of disappearance in urbanized lowlands and intensive agriculture areas of northwestern France) whereas dragonflies showed lower and heterogeneous variation of occurrences, mainly related to regression of aquatic habitats.
4. Species responses appeared closely linked to their ecological preferences, with increased decline of specialist species associated with vulnerable habitats. More particularly, butterflies and dragonflies species were shown to be constrained by their dependence to hostplant species and to aquatic habitats, respectively, highlighting their complementarity as bio-indicators of environmental changes.
5. Conservation priorities were identified across species and administrative units, revealing that almost 80% of the studied taxa showing a significant decline were not listed on the current protection lists. Our results support the need to update current French policies in terms of insect conservation.
... (ii) alternation in disturbance regimes (such as fire cycles) (Beck et al., 2011;Seidl, Schelhaas, & Lexer, 2011;Wirth, Lichstein, Dushoff, Chen, & Chapin, 2008); (iii) climate refugia (Keppel & Wardell-Johnson, 2012;Keppel et al., 2015;Patsiou, Conti, Zimmermann, Theodoridis, & Randin, 2014); and (iv) the trade-off between assisted colonization and biological invasions (Hulme et al., 2015;Pysek et al., 2010;Richardson et al., 2009;Thomas & Palmer, 2015;Willis et al., 2009). These issues are usually either more influential when NACs are common, or more challenging to deal with in NACs. ...
... here are three alternative scientiic views on species translocation 2 : i) aggressive assisted colonization is needed and should include extensive translocation of species also beyond their current distributions; ii) assisted colonization should be avoided because of the diiculties in predicting target regions for assisted colonization, the lack of available data for modelling the climate envelopes of most species, and uncertainties in climate predictions; iii) constrained assisted colonization should be carried out by balancing the beneits and risks associated with assisted colonization. Many authors support constrained assisted colonization, claiming that it will be an essential tool for species conservation in a changing climate 3,4 . his latter approach to assisted colonization requires a modelling framework to produce efective management plans for species translocation. ...
The 2010 European Union Action Plan for biodiversity conservation provides a clear framework to develop appropriate actions for the mitigation of climate change effects. As far as critically endangered alpine plants are concerned, there is a well-timed opportunity to work out a strategy for future in situ conservation and to carefully plan activities of assisted migration, based on proper and specific models capable of taking into account spatio-temporal variations of ecological niches and potential plant distribution ranges. We developed a new model on cartographic basis with the aim to: a) draw a suitability map based on actual niches, b) define best areas for species strengthening on the basis of this model, c) simulate changes of potential niches as a function of climate-driven scenarios. As a case study we selected some alpine plants linked to long-lasting snow-cover in the N-Apennines (about 2000 m a.s.l.), where the last isolated population reaches the southern limit of its range in Europe. The proposed methodology is very flexible and effective, easily exportable to any other alpine species worldwide, with deep implications for plant species conservation under climate fluctuations. This research activities is part of L-TER (Long-Term Ecological Research), a framework project, recently joined by Italy.
... Translocation of species is beginning to be considered as an option for direct response to pressures of climate change ( Van der Veken et al., 2012;Willis et al., 2009). Most studies on this topic that used applied modeling approaches to prioritize efforts for translocation focused on the reestablishment of species within historic ranges (Carroll et al., 2009;Freifeld, Plentovich, Farmer, & Wallace, 2012;Martínez-Meyer, Peterson, Servin, & Kiff, 2006;Pearce & Lindenmayer, 1998;Reynolds, Weiser, Jamieson, & Hatfield, 2013;Vitt, Havens, & Hoegh-Guldberg, 2009). ...
Hawaiian forest birds are imperiled, with fewer than half the original >40 species remaining extant. Recent studies document ongoing rapid population decline and project complete climate-based range losses for the critically endangered Kaua'i endemics ‘akeke’e (Loxops caeruleirostris) and ‘akikiki (Oreomystis bairdi) by end-of-century due to projected warming. Climate change facilitates the upward expansion of avian malaria into native high elevation forests where disease was historically absent. While intensified conservation efforts attempt to safeguard these species and their habitats, the magnitude of potential loss and the urgency of this situation require all conservation options to be seriously considered. One option for Kaua’i endemics is translocation to islands with higher elevation habitats. We explored the feasibility of interisland translocation by projecting baseline and future climate-based ranges of ‘akeke’e and ‘akikiki across the Hawaiian archipelago. For islands where compatible climates for these species were projected to endure through end-of-century, an additional climatic niche overlap analysis compares the spatial overlap between Kaua’i endemics and current native species on prospective destination islands. Suitable climate-based ranges exist on Maui and Hawai'i for these Kaua'i endemics that offer climatically distinct areas compared to niche distributions of destination island endemics. While we recognize that any decision to translocate birds will include assessing numerous additional social, political, and biological factors, our focus on locations of enduring and ecologically compatible climate-based ranges represents the first step to evaluate this potential conservation option. Our approach considering baseline and future distributions of species with climatic niche overlap metrics to identify undesirable range overlap provides a method that can be utilized for other climate-vulnerable species with disjointed compatible environments beyond their native range.
... 3) A new population may be established in an area where management can be more easily or effectively undertaken, for example establishing a new population on public land where resources are available for specific management actions, in contrast to private lands, where conserving rare species can be challenging (Bean & Wilcove, 1997). 4) Establishment of a population at a new location may avoid impending negative effects of climate change in the current location (Willis et al., 2009). 5) In some instances, establishment of new populations may help improve the genetic diversity of existing populations (Le Corre & Kremer, 1998). ...
Species conservation typically involves working within the existing geographic range of that species. However, with habitat loss and climate change, conservationists may need to extend their work beyond the current range of a species. We attempted to extend the geographic breeding range of a rare species, Kirtland's warbler (Setophaga kirtlandii), by 225 km from the closest known breeding pairs and 550 km from its core population. Wisconsin, USA. We broadcast conspecific song playbacks at two sites in landscapes that were far from source populations but had a history of intermittent occupancy. We also estimated the potential effect that additional use of this technique in Wisconsin could have on the global Kirtland's warbler population. The sites were initially unoccupied, but over the course of three years, playback attracted individuals to sites where they successfully reproduced. In the final year of the study, at least seven males and four females occupied the sites, producing 15 young. Based on the amount of appropriate habitat (5- to 15-year-old jack [Pinus banksiana] and red pine [P. resinosa]) in Wisconsin, we estimated that a population of approximately 250 pairs of Kirtland's warblers (10% of the global population) could eventually be supported. Although conspecific playback has often been reported to work over short distances, our success here demonstrates the potential for effectiveness over much greater distances, even in species with a small global population. This highlights that conspecific playback can be a powerful tool to assist recovery of endangered species, particularly in migratory species with a restricted distribution and high dispersal capabilities. As climate changes and humans alter the landscape, it may become crucial to attempt to establish populations beyond a species' current geographic range.
... The next several decades will likely see an increasing use of both assisted colonization and TGF. Indeed, community groups and government agencies are already performing both actions (e.g., Marris, 2009;Weeks et al., 2015), so the challenge might not be in having these actions performed, but rather in having them performed in a planned, strategic manner (e.g., Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2008;Willis et al., 2009): although TGF is already happening, to our knowledge there are currently no wellreported and monitored case studies. Whether the intent is TGF or assisted colonization, however, it is clear that the presence of appropriate adaptive variation in the source population is important. ...
As climate change progresses, there is increasing focus on the possibility of using targeted gene flow (TGF, the movement of pre-adapted individuals into declining populations) as a management tool. Targeted gene flow is a relatively cheap, low-risk management option, and will almost certainly come into increased use over the coming decades. Before such action can be taken, however, we need to know where to find pre-adapted individuals. We argue that, for many species, the obvious place to look for this diversity is in peripheral isolates: isolated populations at the current edges of a species' range. Both evolutionary and ecological considerations suggest that the bulk of a species' adaptive variation may be contained in the total set of these peripheral isolates. Moreover, by exploring both evolutionary and ecological perspectives it becomes clear that we should be able to assess the potential value of each isolate using remotely sensed data and three measurable axes of variation in patch traits: population size, connectivity, and climatic environment. Locating the “sweet spot” in this trait space, however, remains a challenge. Throughout, we illustrate these ideas using Australia's Wet Tropics rainforests as a model system.
... CI as a viable strategy to mitigate biodiversity losses as a result of climate change remains a highly debated and rarely attempted conservation action (Hoegh-Guldberg et al., 2008;Minteer and Collins, 2010;Hewitt et al., 2011). Because of the scarcity of such controversial initiatives, only a few known examples of CI currently exist (Liu et al., 2015), and an even smaller portion of these CIs have been evaluated (Willis et al., 2009;Liu et al., 2012). Central arguments about CI include whether endangered species have the flexibility in their physiological and ecological requirements to survive in the recipient community or whether moving species out of their natural range under any circumstances is a good idea (Reichard et al., 2012), as some species introductions have led to disastrous consequences, a prime example being invasive species (Ricciardi and Simberloff, 2009). ...
Conservation introduction (CI), i.e. moving a species out of its current natural range for conservation purposes, is
a highly controversial and rarely attempted conservation measure. One particular concern with these
conservation actions is whether species with obligate symbiotic relationships will be able to form these
associations in the recipient locations. This study takes advantage of a massive conservation translocation of
orchids at the Yachang National Nature Reserve in southwestern China. We compared the mycorrhizal
associations of four of these targeted species. Two of the species (Cymbidium bicolor Lindl. and Geodorum
eulophioides Schltr.) had narrow geographic ranges and were subjected to CI because the movement had placed
them out of their natural ranges. While the other two species (Paphiopedilum dianthum, Tang and Wang, and
Paphiopedilum hirsutissimum, (Lindl. ex Hook. f.) Pfitzer) had wide geographic ranges and were not moved
outside of them. This movement can be considered a conventional translocation. Using DNA techniques, we
identified orchid mycorrhizal fungi (OMF) associated with translocated and natural populations of these species.
Our results indicated that translocated populations of both kinds (CI and conventional translocation) were able
to establish new relationships with root fungi, including known OMF groups. Wide-ranging species associated
with a greater number (24 OTUs) and more diverse groups of fungi (Shannon diversity (H′)=0.93) than narrow
range species (15 OTUs, H′= 0.62). However, translocated populations of wide-ranging species shared fewer
fungi with their natural populations than those of narrow-ranging species. This research provides the first
evaluation of how critical biotic interactions may change following conservation introduction compared to that
of conventional translocation, and shed light upon the feasibility of conservation introduction.
... Loss of genetic diversity can contribute to a reduced ability to adapt to a changing climate and other environmental conditions [42]. Connectivity between discrete populations is important and this can be provided by habitat steppingstones [43], passages of continuous suitable habitat [44], or human-assisted movement [45,46]. Lack of adjoining land-based corridors between habitats does not necessarily impair Speyeria movement [47] or conservation, but it could make it more difficult for some species [48]. ...
Speyeria (Nymphalidae) are a conspicuous component of the North American butterfly fauna. There are approximately 16 species and >100 associated subspecies (or geographical variants). Speyeria are univoltine, occupy a wide range of habitats, overwinter as first instar larvae, and feed only on native violets. Speyeria species have become a model group for studies of evolution, speciation, and conservation. Several species and subspecies are threatened or endangered. The reasons for this vary with the taxa involved, but always involve the degradation or loss of quality habitat for larvae and adults. The impacts of climate change must be considered among the causes for habitat degradation and in the establishment of conservation measures. In addition to increasing the available habitat, conservation efforts should consider maintaining habitat in a seral “disturbed” successional stage that selectively favors the growth of violets and preferred adult nectar sources. A major future challenge will be determining the most effective allocation of conservation resources to those species and subspecies that have the greatest potential to respond favorably to these efforts.
1. Taxa restricted to mountains may be vulnerable to global warming, unless local-scale topographic variation and conservation actions can protect them against expected changes to the climate. 2. We tested how climate change will affect the 19 mountain-restricted Erebia species of the Iberian Peninsula, of which 7 are endemic. 3. To examine the scope for local topographic variation to protect against warming, we applied species distribution models (HadGEM2 and MPI) at two spatial scales (10 Â 10 and 1 Â 1 km) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) in 2050 and 2070. We also superimposed current and future ranges on the protected area (PA) network to identify priority areas for adapting Erebia conservation to climate change. 4. In 10 Â 10 km HadGEM2 models, climatically suitable areas for all species decreased in 2050 and 2070 (average À95.7%). Modelled decreases at 1 Â 1 km were marginally less drastic (À95.3%), and 14 out of 19 species were still expected to lose their entire climatically favourable range by 2070. 5. The PA network is well located to conserve the species that are expected to retain some climatically suitable areas in 2070. However, we identify 25 separate 10 Â 10 km squares where new PAs would help to adapt the network to expected range shifts or contractions by Erebia. 6. Based on our results, adapting the conservation of range-restricted mountain taxa to projected climate change will require the implementation of complementary in situ and ex situ measures alongside urgent climate change mitigation.
In an epoch of rapid environmental change, understanding and predicting how biodiversity will respond to a changing climate is one of the most urgent challenges faced in ecology and evolution. Since we seldom have sufficient long-term biological data to use the past to anticipate the future, spatial climate-biotic associations are often used as a proxy for predicting biotic responses to climate change over time. These ‘space-for-time substitutions’ (SFTS) have become near ubiquitous in global change biology, but with different subfields having largely developed in isolation. We review how climate-focussed SFTS are used in four subfields of global change biology, each focussed on a different response type – population phenotypes, population genotypes, species’ distributions, and ecological communities. We identify the similarities and differences between the methods, the limitations and opportunities within each subfield, and highlight the potential for different subfields to gain insight from each other. While SFTS are used for a wide range of applications, two main approaches are applied across subfields: in situ gradient methods (including ecological niche modelling) and transplants (common gardens and reciprocal transplants). All SFTS methods and applications share a number of key limitations and assumptions relating to (i) the causality of identified spatial associations and (ii) the transferability of these relationships over time. Despite their widespread use, key assumptions in SFTS remain largely untested, including the fundamental assumption that climate-biotic relationships observed over space are causal and are equivalent to those occurring over time. We highlight how the robustness of SFTS can be improved by addressing these assumptions and limitations, with a particular emphasis on where approaches could be shared between subfields.
Over the past three decades, climate change adaptation has become a central focus in conservation. To inform these efforts, the scientific community has provided a growing body of recommendations on biodiversity management with climate change. A previously published study reviewed the first wave of such recommendations in the peer-reviewed literature as they occurred between 1985 and 2007. Here we build on that work, reviewing the literature from the subsequent time period, 2007–2017. We report on the development of the field between the two time periods, and review in depth three highly ranked, climate change-specific conservation strategies from the more recent time period. Overall, recommended strategies for ecological management have remained remarkably consistent over the last three decades, and the field continues to draw mainly on conventional, long-standing conservation approaches. However, the actionability and specificity of recommendations have increased, and certain novel, climate change-specific strategies have become more prominent, pointing the way toward increasing options for practitioner response.
The rate of global climate change is projected to outpace the ability of many natural populations and species to adapt. Assisted migration (AM), which is defined as the managed movement of climate-adapted individuals within or outside the species ranges, is a conservation option to improve species’ adaptive capacity and facilitate persistence. Although conservation biologists have long been using genetic tools to increase or maintain diversity of natural populations, genomics techniques could add extra benefit in AM that include selectively neutral and adaptive regions of the genome. In this review, we first propose a framework along with detailed procedures to aid collaboration among scientists, agencies, local and regional managers during the decision-making process of genomics-guided AM. We then summarize the genomic approaches for applying AM, followed by a literature search of existing incorporation of genomics in AM across taxa. Our literature search initially identified 729 publications, but after filtering returned only 50 empirical studies that were either directly applied or considered genomics in AM related to climate change across taxa of plants, terrestrial animals, and aquatic animals; 42 studies were in plants. This demonstrated limited application of genomic methods in AM in organisms other than plants, so we provide further case studies as two examples to demonstrate the negative impact of climate change on non-model species and how genomics could be applied in AM. With the rapidly developing sequencing technology and accumulating genomic data, we expect to see more successful applications of genomics in AM, and more broadly, in the conservation of biodiversity.
As climates change, species with locally adapted populations may be particularly vulnerable as specialization narrows the range of conditions under which populations can persist. Populations adapted to local climate as well as other site‐specific characteristics like soils present challenges for inferring how changing climates affect fitness, as climatic and nonclimatic variables that constitute local conditions decouple. We conducted two transplant experiments involving American ginseng to test how climatic conditions affect performance while controlling for effects of other site characteristics. We first out‐planted populations from differing elevations to gardens arrayed along an elevation/climate gradient. We also grew maternal plants under temperatures corresponding to home‐site and future conditions (16.4–22.4°C), transplanting resultant progeny to two home‐sites at different elevations (400 m, 800 m). Source populations responded idiosyncratically to elevation reflecting how nonclimatic site characteristics strongly affected plant fitness. Germination rates declined for seeds from maternal plants exposed to warmer temperatures, which compounded with diminished seed production of maternal plants, suggested that population growth may decline rapidly as warm years become hotter and more frequent. Controlling for maternal temperature effects provided evidence that plants are adapted to home‐site conditions, both climatic and nonclimatic, with population growth rates for out‐planted populations ranging from below population replacement levels (λ = 0.58) to well above (λ = 1.33). Evidence of local adaptation to climatic and nonclimatic environmental components, in combination with negative fitness impacts of warming climates on offspring via maternal effects, suggests that changing climate may imperil ginseng and other similar understory species. Growth of populations transplanted to similar climates at novel sites was idiosyncratic. Both mid‐ and high elevation populations exhibited the highest population growth in the mid‐elevation transplant site, while performance diverged at the high elevation site in a pattern suggesting home‐site advantage. All transplant sites supported ginseng populations prior to establishment of transplant gardens, and were selected due to similarly in vegetative composition and soil characteristics to home‐sites of transplanted populations. Despite this, population growth rates varied between 0.58–1.33 highlighting the challenge of appropriate site selection for ex situ conservation in response to change climate.
We propose an approach to conservation centred on achieving positive future trajectories of dynamic change, applied to all locations and species, and based on societal inclusiveness. Strategies to facilitate change. We take an Anthropocene perspective, in which human society and biodiversity have been inextricably linked for over 10,000 years, and continuing biodiversity change is inevitable. The challenge is to identify circumstances under which change is acceptable or beneficial, without being tied to specific historic baselines. We outline a Resist-Accept-Facilitate (RAF) framework that could be applied to all conservation activities, from high-level planning and measurement (indicators) through to practical land and species management, to ensure that the facilitation of future biodiversity benefits receives as much attention as the resistance of change.Everywhere is important. Different places are important for different things, such as particular species or ecosystem services, and people vary in how they value these features. We suggest a perspective whereby we evaluate what every area is most important for, and what they could be most important for in future by considering possible trajectories of biodiversity and ecosystem change. We propose zoning any region of interest, such as the UK, and applying the RAF framework in an inclusive manner to develop conservation strategies that are appropriate in each location and zone. This RAF approach will reconcile different conservation philosophies (such as traditional management, land-sharing/sparing, rewilding, novel ecosystems, ecosystem services, human wellbeing) because different conservation outcomes will emerge in different zones.Enabling species to move. Genes and species undertake changes to their abundances and distributions in response to climatic and other environmental changes. We suggest that trans situ conservation be developed as a complement to traditional in situ (sites in the wild) and ex situ (in captivity) conservation. Trans situ conservation primarily involves Accept and Facilitate interventions within the RAF framework. It requires consideration of the connectedness and permeability of regions (facilitating colonisation for a majority of species and genes) and the value of new populations of colonising species and novel communities that arise from species range shifts. Trans situ conservation also considers the potential to translocate (assisted colonisation) species and genes that are unable to shift their distributions without direct intervention, highlighting the transnational needs of globally-threatened species rather than locally-rare ones whose future is secure elsewhere.For everyone. The justification for conservation commonly focuses attention on the benefits that individuals and society derive from the natural world, yet the benefits are not shared equitably. The RAF approach asks people from a wide range of backgrounds ‘what they want’ from local landscapes so as to inform the development of more inclusive approaches to conservation both now and in the future. We identify ways in which the processes of conservation could incorporate an increased diversity of perspectives, whilst continuing to be informed by data and professional expertise.
Variations in habitat quality is a known factor in the distribution patterns and abundance of butterflies. Research on butterfly population also provide evidence on how vegetation type influence butterfly diversity. This study assessed the Rhopalocera diversity of PC Hills to elucidate the diversity trends in varying vegetation types. PC Hills (Philippines) is a relatively undisturbed area of forests and rivers, transect sampling technique was applied in monitoring and documenting the butterflies' species richness and diversity. Three transects were established based on vegetation type: agroecosystem, dipterocarp forest, and riparian ecosystem. eight sampling sessions resulted to seven hundred forty-six individuals observed, of which twenty-two Rhopalocera genera were identified morphologically. Thirty-five voucher specimen were classified to the species taxonomic level using DNA Barcoding. The highest diversity level was observed in the third transect (H' = 3.0449), followed by the second transect (H' = 2.7876) and the lowest being in the first transect (H' = 2.3593). Of the 36 species of butterflies, only Notocrypta paralysos volux was categorized by IUCN conservation status as Vulnerable. This study indicates that butterflies are likely to inhabit dipterocarp and riparian vegetation types which then influences their species composition and diversity.
The present study was undertaken with aim to understand the perceptions of indigenous communities about climate change pattern and its local impacts on climate variables, seasons, agriculture, biodiversity and adaptive strategies in geographical and technological-isolated Pangi valley situated in Chamba district, Himachal Pradesh. Randomly selected 120 respondents were interviewed and their perceptions were recorded on pre-designed questionnaire. The climate change impacts are experienced in the form of decreased snowfall (98.3%), temperature rise (97.5%), late onset of monsoon (90.8%), decreased rainfall (76.7%), reduced snow-melted water availability (86.7%) and increased drought incidences (85.8%) of over the years. Further, these climatic changes affecting agriculture through early shifts in crop season (80.8%), shorter growing season (91.7%), introduction of fruit and vegetable crops (90.8%), increased incidence of insect-pest (81.2%) and diseases (84.2%) and thereby decline in crop yield (70%). However, majority of the respondents undertaken adaptive strategies such as crop diversification, traditional mixed-cropping, mixed farming, crop rotation and agro-forestry/agro-horticulture systems to cope with climate change but they are either little or unaware of modern farming practices such as snow water/glacier runoff harvesting, agro advisory services, mulching and zero tillage as adaptation strategies.
La pesca desempeña funciones fundamentales en el suministro
de alimentos a la humanidad, en la seguridad alimentaria y en
la generación de ingresos. Según las proyecciones, los cambios
globales repercutirán importantemente en los ecosistemas
marinos, afectando las comunidades y las economías costeras.
Existen abundantes y diferentes factores de cambio global que
influyen sobre los océanos y, por supuesto, la extracción de
recursos del mar es en sí mismo un agente de cambio global.
En este capítulo se revisan estresores y desafíos claves de
cambio global que son relevantes para la actividad pesquera.
Comenzamos haciendo hincapié en alteraciones físico-químicas
como el aumento de la temperatura y la acidificación del océano
y sus repercusiones en los recursos marinos de importancia
comercial, para posteriormente focalizarnos en aspectos
relacionados con las dimensiones humanas de cambio global
que afectan a las pesquerías, como lo son la sobreexplotación
y las fuerzas de mercado. Finalizamos estableciendo la
importancia de comprender la vulnerabilidad de comunidades
costeras frente a diferentes estresores de cambio global como
una forma de potenciar esfuerzos de adaptación de individuos y
comunidades para enfrentar los problemas que se advierten en
el ámbito de la pesca.
'The Greenhouse Effect and Nature Reserves' by Robert Peters and Joan Darling, published in the journal Bioscience more than 30 years ago, was a ground-breaking synthesis. Drawing on paleoecology, community ecology and biogeography, the review laid out many concepts about species vulnerability to climate change that have become central tenets of research on climate change adaptation in natural ecosystems. Remarkably, the paper also provided a clear and logical framework for flexible, forward-thinking and interventionist management action, including recommendations about the design of protected areas, and the need for species translocation to reduce extinction risk. Reflecting on the legacy of this paper, it is clear that the uptake of such approaches over the intervening decades has been extremely slow, representing many lost opportunities to reduce species vulnerability to rapid environmental change. This paper is a tribute to the prescience of Peters and Darling, and a call to revisit their farsighted advice to meet conservation challenges that continue to accelerate.
Anthropogenic climate change represents a wicked problem, both for the Earth’s natural systems and for biodiversity conservation law and policy. Legal frameworks for conservation have a critical role to play in helping species and ecosystems to adapt as the climate changes. However, they are currently poorly equipped to regulate adaptation strategies that demand high levels of human intervention. This article investigates law and policy for conservation introductions, which involve relocating species outside their historical habitat. It takes as a case study Australian law on conservation introductions, demonstrating theoretical and practical legal hurdles to these strategies at international, national and subnational levels. The article argues that existing legal mechanisms may be repurposed, in some cases, to better regulate conservation introduction projects. However, new legal mechanisms are also needed, and soon, to effectively conserve species and ecosystems in a period of unprecedented ecological change.
Species distribution, catalogues, phylogeny, and life history traits are the data basis of biodiversity studies, playing critical roles in understanding species origins, evolution, and conservation biodiversity. Recently, a large number of scientific data-sharing platforms have been created, greatly contributing to the development of biodiversity informatics. However, it is difficult for most researchers to deal with big data with high complexity and heterogeneity. Determining how to select and utilize these data accurately and effectively becomes a huge challenge for ecologists and conservation biologists. To better deal with existing problems related to scattered distributed data, we classify biodiversity data resources into four groups (species distribution, catalogues, phylogeny and life history traits), and select representative databases (e.g. Global Biodiversity Information Facility, The Plant List, Open Tree of Life, and The Plant Trait Database (TRY) for demonstration. For each database, data type, and sampling design, geographic coverage and data availability are reported, and selected publications using these datasets are briefly introduced. Meanwhile, we describe recent achievements on the construction of China’s biodiversity digital platforms in each section. Overall, we hope that this paper provides a starting point for researchers to be familiar with these databases and use them correctly, and could have the potential to stimulate the development of related fields in research and conservation of biodiversity under the efforts of researchers and the public.
Ecological restoration is a very active area in ecology and of great importance for ecosystems management. Despite of being a relatively young discipline, the classical concepts of restoration seem, at present, impractical considering the great challenges generated by modification and destruction of ecosystems. This is due to anthropic activities (deforestation, change of land use, pollution) and global climate change. In the classic definition of restoration, the objective is to recover the degraded ecosystem to the same conditions of a historical reference state. However, nowadays the ecosystems return to a state prior to the disturbances seems unviable, because the thresholds of resilience have already been overcome. Additionally, climate change is causing environmental changes at an unprecedented rate. For this reason, ecological restoration needs to unite efforts of diverse actors to recover ecosystems that can be sustainable and functional in the future, where the species could be able to tolerate the environmental conditions that will exist in the long term. Assisted migration has been proposed as a conservation strategy; it is defined as the translocation of species to new locations outside their known range of distribution. In the current context of loss of diversity and ecosystems, this strategy could be fundamental for the formation of new communities that can later become novel ecosystems where species that are fundamental to the dynamics of ecosystems can persist and, at the same time, recover function, structure and resilience.
Mean global temperatures have risen this century, and further warming is predicted to continue for the next 50-100 years. Some migratory species can respond rapidly to yearly climate variation by altering the timing or destination of migration, but most wildlife is sedentary and so is incapable of such a rapid response. For these species, responses to the warming trend should be slower, reflected in poleward shifts of the range. Such changes in distribution would occur at the level of the population, stemming not from changes in the pattern of indivduals' movements, but from changes in the ratios of extinctions to colonizations at the northern and southern boundaries of the range. A northward range shift therefore occurs when there is net extinction at teh southern boundary or net colonization at the northern boundary. However, previous evidence has been limited to a single species or to only a portion of the species' range. Here we provide the first large-scale evidence of poleward shifts in entire species' ranges. In a sample of 35 non-migratory European butterflies, 63% have ranges that have shifted to the north by 35-240 km during this century, and only 3% have shifted to the south.
Moving species outside their historic ranges may mitigate loss of biodiversity in the face of global climate change.
Evidence-based policy requires researchers to provide the answers to ecological questions that are of interest to policy makers. To find out what those questions are in the UK, representatives from 28 organizations involved in policy, together with scientists from 10 academic institutions, were asked to generate a list of questions from their organizations. During a 2-day workshop the initial list of 1003 questions generated from consulting at least 654 policy makers and academics was used as a basis for generating a short list of 100 questions of significant policy relevance. Short-listing was decided on the basis of the preferences of the representatives from the policy-led organizations. The areas covered included most major issues of environmental concern in the UK, including agriculture, marine fisheries, climate change, ecosystem function and land management. The most striking outcome was the preference for general questions rather than narrow ones. The reason is that policy is driven by broad issues rather than specific ones. In contrast, scientists are frequently best equipped to answer specific questions. This means that it may be necessary to extract the underpinning specific question before researchers can proceed. Synthesis and applications. Greater communication between policy makers and scientists is required in order to ensure that applied ecologists are dealing with issues in a way that can feed into policy. It is particularly important that applied ecologists emphasize the generic value of their work wherever possible.
Rapid climatic change poses a threat to global biodiversity. There is extensive evidence that recent climatic change has affected animal and plant populations, but no indicators exist that summarise impacts over many species and large areas. We use data on long-term population trends of European birds to develop such an indicator. We find a significant relationship between interspecific variation in population trend and the change in potential range extent between the late 20(th) and late 21(st) centuries, forecasted by climatic envelope models. Our indicator measures divergence in population trend between bird species predicted by climatic envelope models to be favourably affected by climatic change and those adversely affected. The indicator shows a rapid increase in the past twenty years, coinciding with a period of rapid warming.
Twenty-five-year population trends of 42 bird species rare as breeders in the UK were examined in relation to changes in climatic suitability simulated using climatic envelope models. The effects of a series of potential 'nuisance' variables were also assessed. A statistically significant positive correlation was found across species between population trend and climate suitability trend. The demonstration that climate envelope models are able to retrodict species' population trends provides a valuable validation of their use in studies of the potential impacts of future climatic changes.
Habitat degradation and climate change are thought to be altering the distributions and abundances of animals and plants throughout the world, but their combined impacts have not been assessed for any species assemblage. Here we evaluated changes in the distribution sizes and abundances of 46 species of butterflies that approach their northern climatic range margins in Britain-where changes in climate and habitat are opposing forces. These insects might be expected to have responded positively to climate warming over the past 30 years, yet three-quarters of them declined: negative responses to habitat loss have outweighed positive responses to climate warming. Half of the species that were mobile and habitat generalists increased their distribution sites over this period (consistent with a climate explanation), whereas the other generalists and 89% of the habitat specialists declined in distribution size (consistent with habitat limitation). Changes in population abundances closely matched changes in distributions. The dual forces of habitat modification and climate change are likely to cause specialists to decline, leaving biological communities with reduced numbers of species and dominated by mobile and widespread habitat generalists.
Over the past 100 years, the global average temperature has increased by approximately 0.6 degrees C and is projected to continue to rise at a rapid rate. Although species have responded to climatic changes throughout their evolutionary history, a primary concern for wild species and their ecosystems is this rapid rate of change. We gathered information on species and global warming from 143 studies for our meta-analyses. These analyses reveal a consistent temperature-related shift, or 'fingerprint', in species ranging from molluscs to mammals and from grasses to trees. Indeed, more than 80% of the species that show changes are shifting in the direction expected on the basis of known physiological constraints of species. Consequently, the balance of evidence from these studies strongly suggests that a significant impact of global warming is already discernible in animal and plant populations. The synergism of rapid temperature rise and other stresses, in particular habitat destruction, could easily disrupt the connectedness among species and lead to a reformulation of species communities, reflecting differential changes in species, and to numerous extirpations and possibly extinctions.
Causal attribution of recent biological trends to climate change is complicated because non-climatic influences dominate local, short-term biological changes. Any underlying signal from climate change is likely to be revealed by analyses that seek systematic trends across diverse species and geographic regions; however, debates within the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reveal several definitions of a 'systematic trend'. Here, we explore these differences, apply diverse analyses to more than 1,700 species, and show that recent biological trends match climate change predictions. Global meta-analyses documented significant range shifts averaging 6.1 km per decade towards the poles (or metres per decade upward), and significant mean advancement of spring events by 2.3 days per decade. We define a diagnostic fingerprint of temporal and spatial 'sign-switching' responses uniquely predicted by twentieth century climate trends. Among appropriate long-term/large-scale/multi-species data sets, this diagnostic fingerprint was found for 279 species. This suite of analyses generates 'very high confidence' (as laid down by the IPCC) that climate change is already affecting living systems.
Species-energy theory indicates that recent climate warming should have driven increases in species richness in cool and species-poor parts of the Northern Hemisphere. We confirm that the average species richness of British butterflies has increased since 1970-82, but much more slowly than predicted from changes of climate: on average, only one-third of the predicted increase has taken place. The resultant species assemblages are increasingly dominated by generalist species that were able to respond quickly. The time lag is confirmed by the successful introduction of many species to climatically suitable areas beyond their ranges. Our results imply that it may be decades or centuries before the species richness and composition of biological communities adjusts to the current climate.
The establishment of ecological networks (ENs) has been proposed as an ideal way to counteract the increasing fragmentation of natural ecosystems and as a necessary complement to the establishment of protected areas for biodiversity conservation. This conservation tool, which comprises core areas, corridors, and buffer areas, has attracted the attention of several national and European institutions. It is thought that ENs can connect habitat patches and thus enable species to move across unsuitable areas. In Europe, however, ENs are proposed as an oversimplification of complex ecological concepts, and we maintain that they are of limited use for biodiversity conservation for several reasons. The ENs are species specific and operate on species-dependent scales. In addition, the information needed for their implementation is only available for a handful of species. To overcome these limitations, ENs have been proposed on a landscape scale (and for selected "focal" species), but there is no indication that the structural composition of core areas, corridors, and buffer areas could ensure the functional connectivity and improve the viability of more than a few species. The theory behind ENs fails to provide sufficient practical information on how to build them (e.g., width, shape, structure, content). In fact, no EN so far has been validated in practice (ensuring connectivity and increasing overall biodiversity conservation), and there are no signs that validation will be possible in the near future. In view of these limitations, it is difficult to justify spending economic and political resources on building systems that are at best working hypotheses that cannot be evaluated on a practical level.
Climatic change is expected to lead to changes in species' geographical ranges. Adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation require quantitative estimates of the magnitude, direction and rates of these potential changes. Such estimates are of greatest value when they are made for large ensembles of species and for extensive (sub-continental or continental) regions.
For six climate scenarios for 2070-99 changes have been estimated for 431 European breeding bird species using models relating species' distributions in Europe to climate. Mean range centroid potentially shifted 258-882 km in a direction between 341 degrees (NNW) and 45 degrees (NE), depending upon the climate scenario considered. Potential future range extent averaged 72-89% of the present range, and overlapped the present range by an average of 31-53% of the extent of the present range. Even if potential range changes were realised, the average number of species breeding per 50x50 km grid square would decrease by 6.8-23.2%. Many species endemic or near-endemic to Europe have little or no overlap between their present and potential future ranges; such species face an enhanced extinction risk as a consequence of climatic change.
Although many human activities exert pressures upon wildlife, the magnitude of the potential impacts estimated for European breeding birds emphasises the importance of climatic change. The development of adaptation strategies for biodiversity conservation in the face of climatic change is an urgent need; such strategies must take into account quantitative evidence of potential climatic change impacts such as is presented here.
The first expected symptoms of a climate change-generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one-third, with losses of 50–80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate-mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long-term chances of survival.
1. Legal protection since the 1950s, and the reductions in the use of DDT and other organochlorine compounds from around 1970, made recovery and resettlement of raptor species possible in both Britain (GB) and the Netherlands (NL). Data on the distribution of various species between 1960 and 1994, are used for calculating the velocity of range expansion in both countries. 2. The relationship of the square root of the area occupied as a function of time is linear, which implies a constant rate of range reoccupation. The sequence in observed velocities of reoccupation from slowest to fastest is as follows: red kite, Milvus milvus L. (GB); buzzard, Buteo buteo L. (GB); osprey, Pandion haliaetus L. (GB); buzzard (NL); marsh harrier, Circus aeruginosus L. (GB); sparrowhawk, Accipiter nisus L. (NL); sparrowhawk (GB); goshawk, Accipiter gentilis L. (Wales); peregrine, Falco peregrinus Tunst. (GB); and goshawk (NL). 3. Expansion of the buzzard in Britain 1972-92 was lower than during the period 1915-54. This species is reported to be heavily persecuted, especially along the edge of the distribution range. For the same reason the goshawk in Britain expanded only in some areas, and disappeared in others. 4. Using the model of Van den Bosch et al. (1990), an expected velocity of range expansion was calculated based on published data on reproduction, survival and dispersal of new breeding birds. These three parameters sufficed to obtain a reliable fit to the observed velocities of range expansion for a part of the distribution range of a species. The expected velocities are about the same as the observed ones. 5. In the species under study, different types of range expansion are distinguished: (i) colonization of an island (an invasion sensu stricto; osprey, goshawk GB); (ii) colonization from a very small starting area (an invasion sensu lato; marsh harrier, red kite); and (iii) reoccupation of former breeding grounds in a part of the distribution range (recovery; goshawk NL, buzzard NL GB, sparrowhawk GB NL). In all three cases, the processes underlying the expansion as defined in the Van den Bosch model, proved to be sufficient to explain the observations. 6. Based on simulations with the model, the present study concludes that at levels in lifetime reproduction (Ro) just above 1.0 fledglings per female, minor increases in survival or reproduction can accelerate the velocity of range expansion substantially. Moreover, the more a species shows long-distance dispersal, the faster its range will expand from levels of Ro just above 1.0. Minor changes in reproduction and/or survival can lift a stable population (Ro = 1.0) over the threshold towards expansion.
Summary • Climate change is recognized as a major threat to the survival of species and integrity of ecosystems world-wide. Although considerable research has focused on climate impacts, relatively little work to date has been conducted on the practical application of strategies for adapting to climate change. Adaptation strategies should aim to increase the flexibility in management of vulnerable ecosystems, enhance the inherent adaptability of species and ecosystem processes, and reduce trends in environmental and social pressures that increase vulnerability to climate variability. • Knowledge of the specific attributes of climate change likely to impact on species or habitats is central to any adaptive management strategy. Temperature is not the only climate variable likely to change as a result of anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases. In some regions changes in precipitation, relative humidity, radiation, wind speed and/or potential evapotranspiration may be more marked than for temperature. • Uncertainty exists in the response of species and ecosystems to a given climate scenario. While climate will have a direct impact on the performance of many species, for others impacts will be indirect and result from changes in the spatiotemporal availability of natural resources. In addition, mutualistic and antagonistic interactions among species will mediate both the indirect and direct effects of climate change. • Approaches to predict species’ responses to climate change have tended to address either changes in abundance with time or in spatial distribution. While correlative models may provide a good indication of climate change impacts on abundance, greater understanding is generated by models incorporating aspects of life history, intra- and interspecific competition and predation. Models are especially sensitive to the uncertainty inherent in future climate predictions, the complexity of species’ interactions and the difficulties in parameterizing dispersal functions. Model outputs that have not been appropriately validated with real data should be treated with caution. • Synthesis and applications. While climate impacts may be severe, they are often exacerbated by current management practices, such as the construction of sea defences, flood management and fire exclusion. In many cases adaptation approaches geared to safeguard economic interests run contrary to options for biodiversity conservation. Increased environmental variability implies lower sustainable harvest rates and increased risks of population collapse. Climate change may significantly reduce habitat suitability and may threaten species with limited dispersal ability. In these cases, well-planned species translocations may prove a better option than management attempts to increase landscape connectivity. Mathematical models, long-term population studies, natural experiments and the exploitation of natural environmental gradients provide a sound basis for further understanding the consequences of climate change. Journal of Applied Ecology (2005) 42, 784 –794 doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2005.01082.x
ABSTRACT Modelling of climate change-induced species range shifts has generally addressed migration limitations inadequately, often assuming ‘null’ migration or instantaneous ‘full’ migration extremes. We describe methods for incorporating simple migration rate assumptions into multispecies modelling, using the Proteaceae of the Cape Floristic Region. Even with optimistic migration assumptions, range loss projections more closely approximate null migration than full migration assumptions. Full migration results were positively skewed by few species with large range increases, an overestimate eliminated by dispersal-limited migration rate assumptions. Wind- and ant/rodent-dispersed species responded differently to climate change. Initially larger ranges of wind-dispersed species were more strongly reduced by climate change, despite far greater assumed dispersal distances — we suggest that these well-dispersed species populate more marginal areas of potential range, causing lower resilience to climatic changes at range margins. Overall, range loss rate slowed with advancing climate change, possibly because species ranges contracted into core areas most resilient to climate change. Thus, a consideration of simple dynamics of range change (rather than single step, present–future comparisons of range) provide new insights relevant for conservation strategies, in particular, and for guiding monitoring efforts to detect and gauge the impacts of climate change on natural populations.
: The establishment of ecological networks (ENs) has been proposed as an ideal way to counteract the increasing fragmentation of natural ecosystems and as a necessary complement to the establishment of protected areas for biodiversity conservation. This conservation tool, which comprises core areas, corridors, and buffer areas, has attracted the attention of several national and European institutions. It is thought that ENs can connect habitat patches and thus enable species to move across unsuitable areas. In Europe, however, ENs are proposed as an oversimplification of complex ecological concepts, and we maintain that they are of limited use for biodiversity conservation for several reasons. The ENs are species specific and operate on species-dependent scales. In addition, the information needed for their implementation is only available for a handful of species. To overcome these limitations, ENs have been proposed on a landscape scale (and for selected “focal” species), but there is no indication that the structural composition of core areas, corridors, and buffer areas could ensure the functional connectivity and improve the viability of more than a few species. The theory behind ENs fails to provide sufficient practical information on how to build them (e.g., width, shape, structure, content). In fact, no EN so far has been validated in practice (ensuring connectivity and increasing overall biodiversity conservation), and there are no signs that validation will be possible in the near future. In view of these limitations, it is difficult to justify spending economic and political resources on building systems that are at best working hypotheses that cannot be evaluated on a practical level.Resumen: El establecimiento de redes ecológicas (RE) ha sido propuesto como una forma ideal para contrarrestar la creciente fragmentación de los ecosistemas naturales y como un complemento necesario del establecimiento de áreas protegidas para la conservación de biodiversidad. Esta herramienta de conservación, que comprende áreas núcleo, corredores y áreas de amortiguamiento, ha atraído la atención de varias instituciones nacionales y europeas. Se piensa que las redes ecológicas pueden conectar parches de hábitat y, por lo tanto, permitir que las especies se muevan a través de áreas inadecuadas. Sin embargo, en Europa las RE son propuestas como una simplificación de conceptos ecológicos complejos, y mantenemos que su uso en la conservación de biodiversidad es limitado por varias razones. Las redes ecológicas son particulares para la especie y operan en escalas dependientes de la especie. Adicionalmente, la información requerida para su implementación solo está disponible para un puñado de especies. Para superar estas limitaciones, las RE han sido propuestas a escala de paisaje (y para especies “focales” selectas), pero no hay indicios de que la composición estructural de las zonas núcleo, los corredores y las zonas de amortiguamiento podría asegurar la conectividad funcional y mejorar la viabilidad de más especies. La teoría que sustenta a las RE no proporciona suficiente información práctica sobre cómo construirlas (e.g., anchura, forma, estructura, contenido). De hecho, hasta ahora ninguna RE ha sido validada en la práctica (asegurar la conectividad e incrementar la conservación de la biodiversidad) y no hay señales de que la validación será posible en el futuro cercano. En vista de estas limitaciones, es difícil justificar el gasto de recursos económicos y políticos para la construcción de sistemas que, en el mejor de los casos, son hipótesis de trabajo que no pueden ser evaluadas en un nivel práctico.
Presents results from a long-term butterfly monitoring program, and reviews the ecology of British butterflies.
1. Metapopulation dynamics of the silver-spotted skipper butterfly Hesperia comma were studied between 1982 and 1991 along a 25-km stretch of chalk hills on the North Downs, Surrey, UK. Sixty-nine patches of suitable habitat were identified, of which 48 were occupied in 1982. Over the 9-year period, 12 patches were colonized, seven went extinct and nine patches remained vacant. Patches were more likely to be colonized if they were relatively large and close to other large, occupied patches. Local populations in small, isolated patches were more likely to go extinct. 2. Within a 70-ha section of a metapopulation, mark-release-recapture techniques were used in 1994 to investigate the effects of local patch area and isolation on movement of individuals among local patches. 988 butterflies were marked of which 133 moved between patches. 67% of between-patch movements were less than 50 m, although the longest recorded distance moved was 1070 m. Butterflies were most likely to move between large patches that were close together. 3. Metapopulation models have assumed that the distribution of distances moved by migrants follows a negative-exponential function. In our study, this distribution fitted an inverse-power function better than a negative-exponential. The under-estimation of long-distance migration by negative exponentials, compared with inverse power functions, may explain why theoretical models have under-estimated the number of occupied patches in metapopulations of H. comma following natural colonization. 4. Per capita emigration and immigration rates were significantly higher in small patches (area
Many species are predicted to shift their ranges to higher latitudes and altitudes in response to climate warming. This study presents evidence for 37 species of nonmigratory British dragonflies and damselflies shifting northwards at their range margins over the past 40 years, seemingly as a result of climate change. This response by an exemplar group of insects associated with fresh water, parallels polewards range changes observed in terrestrial invertebrates and other taxa.
Polewards expansions of species' distributions have been attributed to climate warming, but evidence for climate-driven local extinctions at warm (low latitude/elevation) boundaries is equivocal. We surveyed the four species of butterflies that reach their southern limits in Britain. We visited 421 sites where the species had been recorded previously to determine whether recent extinctions were primarily due to climate or habitat changes. Coenonympha tullia had become extinct at 52% of study sites and all losses were associated with habitat degradation. Aricia artaxerxes was extinct from 50% of sites, with approximately one-third to half of extinctions associated with climate-related factors and the remainder with habitat loss. For Erebia aethiops (extinct from 24% of sites), approximately a quarter of the extinctions were associated with habitat and three-quarters with climate. For Erebia epiphron, extinctions (37% of sites) were attributed mainly to climate with almost no habitat effects. For the three species affected by climate, range boundaries retracted 70-100 km northwards (A. artaxerxes, E. aethiops) and 130-150 m uphill (E. epiphron) in the sample of sites analysed. These shifts are consistent with estimated latitudinal and elevational temperature shifts of 88 km northwards and 98 m uphill over the 19-year study period. These results suggest that the southern/warm range margins of some species are as sensitive to climate change as are northern/cool margins. Our data indicate that climate warming has been of comparable importance to habitat loss in driving local extinctions of northern species over the past few decades; future climate warming is likely to jeopardize the long-term survival of many northern and mountain species.
1 The effect of weather on the size of British butterfly populations was studied using national weather records and the Butterfly Monitoring Scheme (BMS), a national database that has measured butterfly abundance since 1976.2 Strong associations between weather and population fluctuations and trends were found in 28 of 31 species studied. The main positive associations were with warm summer (especially June) temperature during the current and previous year, low rainfall in the current year and high rainfall in the previous year. Most bivoltine species benefited from warm June weather in the current year, three spring species and two that overwinter as adults benefited from warm weather in the previous summer, and most species with moist or semi-shaded habitats increased following high rainfall and cooler weather in the previous year.3 Simple models incorporating weather variables and density effects were constructed for each species using the first 15 years’ population data (1976–90). These fitted the observed data for that period well (median R2 = 70%). Models were less good at predicting changes in abundance over the next 7 years (1991–97), although significant predictive success was obtained.4 Parameter values of models were then adjusted to incorporate the full 22-year data-run. For the eight species whose models had best predicted population changes or fitted the data well (R2 > 85%), models were run from 1767 to 1997, using historical weather records, to ‘predict’ trends in abundance over the past two centuries. For three species it was possible to compare predicted past trends with contemporary accounts of abundance since 1800. In each case, the match between predictions and these qualitative assessments was good.5 Models were also used to predict future changes in abundance, using three published scenarios for climate change. Most, but not all, species are predicted to increase in the UK under warmer climates, a few species stayed stable, and only one species – the agricultural pest Pieris brassicae (Cabbage White) – is predicted to decline.
Aim To assess whether altitude changes in the distribution of butterflies during the second half of the 20th century are consistent with climate warming scenarios.
Location The Czech Republic.
Methods Distributional data were taken from a recent butterfly distribution atlas, which maps all Czech butterflies using a grid of 10′ longitude to 6′ latitude, equivalent to about 11.1 × 12 km. Cell altitude was used as an independent variable, and altitudinal ranges of individual species (less migrants, extinct species, recent arrivals and extremely rare species) in 1950–80 vs. 1995–2001 and in 1950–80, 1981–94, 1995–2001 were compared using U-tests and linear regressions.
Results Of 117 (U-tests) and 119 (regressions) species, we found significant uphill increases in 15 and 12 species, respectively. The two groups were nested; none (U-test) and one (regression) species showed a significant altitudinal decrease. Binomial tests of frequencies of signs of the U-tests and regression coefficients, including nonsignificant ones, also showed that the increases prevailed. The mean and median of the significant shifts were 60 and 90 m, respectively, and the maximum shift per species was 148 m. The recording effort in individual time periods was not biased with respect to altitude.
Main conclusion Altitude shifts in the distribution of Czech butterflies are already detectable on the coarse scales of standard distribution maps. The increasing species do not show any consistent pattern in habitat affiliations, conservation status and mountain vs. nonmountain distribution, which renders climatic explanation as the most likely cause of the distributional shifts.
The first expected symptoms of a climate change-generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one-third, with losses of 50-80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate-mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long-term chances of survival.
Evidence is accumulating of shifts in species' distributions during recent climate warming. However, most of this information comes predominantly from studies of a relatively small selection of taxa (i.e., plants, birds and butterflies), which may not be representative of biodiversity as a whole. Using data from less well-studied groups, we show that a wide variety of vertebrate and invertebrate species have moved northwards and uphill in Britain over approximately 25 years, mirroring, and in some cases exceeding, the responses of better-known groups.