Article

Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of pre-seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad

August 2010
Journal of Zoology 281(4):263 - 271

DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-7998.2010.00700.x

Project: Herpetology

Authors:

London South Bank University

The widespread belief that animals can anticipate earthquakes (EQs) is poorly supported by evidence, most of which consists of anecdotal post hoc recollections and relates to a very short period immediately before such events. In this study, a population of reproductively active common toads Bufo bufo were monitored over a period of 29 days, before, during and after the EQ (on day 10) at L'Aquila, Italy, in April 2009. Although our study site is 74 km from L'Aquila, toads showed a dramatic change in behaviour 5 days before the EQ, abandoning spawning and not resuming normal behaviour until some days after the event. It is unclear what environmental stimuli the toads were responding to so far in advance of the EQ, but reduced toad activity coincides with pre-seismic perturbations in the ionosphere, detected by very low frequency (VLF) radio sounding. We compare the response of toads to the EQ with the reported responses to seismic activity of several other species.

Potential short‐term earthquake forecasting by farm animal monitoring

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2020

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations. A collective of domestic farm animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1–20 hr) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5–28 km). We propose a system of “living sentinels” for the scientific testing of potential anticipation of earthquakes through animal activities.

Potential short-term earthquake forecasting by farm-animal monitoring

Preprint

Jan 2020

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short-term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. During the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we instrumentally observed the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct-Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan-Apr 2017). Relating 5304 (in 2016) and 12948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a stable, but not during their time on a pasture. We detect these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1-20hrs) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous instrumental monitoring of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre-seismic activity that could allow for short-term earthquake forecasting. One Sentence Summary A collective of domestic animals repeatedly showed unusually high activity levels before earthquakes, with anticipation times (1-20h) negatively related to distance from epicenters (5-28km).

Atypical Variations of Water Conductivity Prior to Tectonic Earthquakes

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2015
IJG

Within the framework of precursor events related to earthquakes, this paper analyzes the possible effect on the aquatic environment of the surrounding energy that accompanies earthquakes, particularly in the area where oceanic and continental plates collide (Cocos Plate and North American Plate, south of Mexico). As a preamble, the types of precursor events, characteristics, and their possible origin are described. A project was designed under the assumption that in areas with high frequency and intensity seismicity there is an electrical and electromagnetic potential promoter which is detectable and assessable indirectly by measuring water conductivity behavior, which also may have atypical variations of data; the outcome of intensive conductivity monitoring in different settings, natural as well as manmade (wellsprings, artesian well and a cistern), are presented herein. The results of the conductivity monitoring for seven months, highlight two patterns in data behavior: one pattern shows the subtle dependence of data behavior on the geographic location of data monitoring instruments, revealing that could have a slight relationship between areas with increased seismic frequency and intensity and the presence of atypical conductivity variations. Another pattern reveals the possible relationship between atypical variations in conductivity and subsequent earthquake events; a total of 241 seismic events were analyzed and 59 of them are provided as evidence related with patterns mentioned. Use these links to get a copy of this paper: http://www.scirp.org/journal/ijg http://dx.doi.org/10.4236/ijg.2015.612108

Changes in Animal Activity Prior to a Major (M=7) Earthquake in the Peruvian Andes

Article

Mar 2015
PHYS CHEM EARTH

During earthquake preparation geophysical processes occur over varying temporal and spatial scales, some leaving their mark on the surface environment, on various biota, and even affecting the ionosphere. Reports on pre-seismic changes in animal behaviour have been greeted with scepticism by the scientific community due to the necessarily anecdotal nature of much of the evidence and a lack of consensus over possible causal mechanisms. Here we present records of changes in the abundance of mammals and birds obtained over a 30 day period by motion-triggered cameras at the Yanachaga National Park, Peru, prior to the 2011 magnitude 7.0 Contamana earthquake. In addition we report on ionospheric perturbations derived from night-time very low frequency (VLF) phase data along a propagation paths passing over the epicentral region. Animal activity declined significantly over a 3-week period prior to the earthquake compared to periods of low seismic activity. Night-time ionospheric phase perturbations of the VLF signals above the epicentral area, fluctuating over the course of a few minutes, were observed, starting 2 weeks before the earthquake. The concurrent observation of two widely different and seemingly unconnected precursory phenomena is of interest because recently, it has been proposed that the multitude of reported pre-earthquake phenomena may arise from a single underlying physical process: the stress-activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers in the Earth’s crust and their flow to the Earth’s surface. The flow of charge carriers through the rock column constitutes and electric current, which is expected to fluctuate and thereby emit electromagnetic radiation in the ultralow frequency (ULF) regime. The arrival of the charge carriers can lead to air ionization at the ground-to-air interface and the injection of massive amounts of positive airborne ions, known to be aversive to animals.

On the biophysical mechanism of sensing upcoming earthquakes by animals

Article

Jan 2020
SCI TOTAL ENVIRON

It is documented that a few days or weeks before major Earthquakes (EQs) there are changes in animal behavior within distances up to 500 km from the seismic epicenter. At the same time Seismic Electric Signals (SES), geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations, are detected within similar distances. SES consist of single unipolar pulses, and/or groups of such pulses called “SES activities” with an average frequency between successive pulses on the order of ~0.01 Hz and electric field intensity on the order of ~10-5-10-4 V/m (Frazer-Smith et al 1990; Rikitake 1998; Varotsos et al 1993; 2011; 2019; Hayakawa et al 2013; Grant et al 2015). We show that the SES activities can be sensed by living organisms through the “Ion Forced-Oscillation Mechanism” for the action of Electromagnetic Fields (EMFs) on cells, according to which polarized EMFs can cause irregular gating of electro-sensitive ion channels on the cell membranes with consequent disruption of the cell electrochemical balance (Panagopoulos et al 2000; 2002; 2015). This can be sensed by sensitive animals as discomfort in cases of weak and transient exposures, and may even lead to DNA damage and serious health implications in cases of intense exposure conditions (as in certain cases of man-made EMF exposures). Moreover, we show that the geomagnetic and ionospheric perturbations cannot be sensed through this mechanism. The same mechanism has explained meteoropathy, the sensing of upcoming thunderstorms by sensitive individuals, through the action of the EMFs of lightning discharges (Panagopoulos and Balmori 2017). The present study shows that centuries-long anecdotal rumors of animals sensing intense upcoming EQs and displaying unusual behavior, lately documented by systematic studies, are now explained for the first time on the basis of the electromagnetic nature of all living organisms, and the electromagnetic signals emitted prior to EQs.

1. Crime Control Using National Social Security Numbering System. 2. Big Data Mining and Analytics for National Security in Nigeria

Conference Paper

Full-text available

Jan 2016

Cornelius Adejoro

Predicting the Time lag between Primary and Secondary Waves for Earthquakes using Artificial Neural Network (ANN).

Conference Paper

Full-text available

Nov 2016

Seismic waves experienced prior to earthquake are the primary and the secondary waves. This paper investigates the time lag after the primary wave before the occurrence of the secondary (destructive) wave. The aim is to allow for necessary warning signals and safety steps to be taken prior to the impending disaster. Seismometer records from previous earthquakes were used in this investigation, putting into consideration the time lag between the primary and secondary waves. Other parameters considered include the magnitude, the epicenter distance, the seismic station’s distance and the direction (in azimuths). Consequently, a prediction model was developed from the derived data using Artificial Neural Network (ANN). Data obtained from earthquakes of magnitude 6.0 to 7.0, based on Richter’s scale, was used to train the ANN. The results therein showed high performance, with regression values greater than 0.9 and root mean squared errors of 0.1003-0.1148 for the most satisfactory architecture. The final results showed that the developed ANN model achieved a high performance, hence, adequate for this type of application.

Search for electromagnetic earthquake precursors by means of sounding of upper atmosphere-lower ionosphere boundary by VLF/LF signals

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2012

VLF/LF signals method for searching of electromagnetic earthquake precursors

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2013

Behavioral Response of Invertebrates to Experimental Simulation of Pre-Seismic Chemical Changes

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2015

Simple Summary We exposed two invertebrates to hydrogen peroxide to mimic some of the conditions that occur before large earthquakes. Water fleas changed their position in an aquarium to avoid the hydrogen peroxide but earthworms appeared not to be affected and did not change position. We discuss this in the context of unusual animal behavior often seen before earthquakes. Abstract Unusual behavior before earthquakes has been reported for millennia but no plausible mechanism has been identified. One possible way in which animals could be affected by pre-earthquake processes is via stress activated positive holes leading to the formation of hydrogen peroxide at the rock water interface. Aquatic and fossorial animals could be irritated by H2O2 and move down the concentration gradient. Here, we carry out avoidance tests with hydrogen peroxide in two model organisms; Daphnia pulex and earthworms. Daphnia were found to move away from increasing concentrations of H2O2 but earthworms appeared unaffected. It is possible that earthworm swarming behavior, reported frequently before earthquakes, is caused by electric field shifts or another unknown mechanism, whereas zooplankton may be affected by increasing levels of H2O2.

Bio-Mimetics of Disaster Anticipation—Learning Experience and Key-Challenges

Article

Full-text available

Mar 2013

H. Tributsch

Simple Summary Starting from 1700 B.C. in the old world and up to recent times in China there is evidence of earthquake prediction based on unusual metrological phenomena and animal behavior. The review tries to explore the credibility and to pin down the nature of geophysical phenomena involved. It appears that the concept of ancient Greek philosophers in that a dry gas, pneuma is correlated with earthquakes, is relevant. It is not the cause of earthquakes, as originally thought, but may be an accompanying phenomenon and occasional precursor. This would explain unusual animal behavior as well as thermal anomalies detected from satellites. Abstract Anomalies in animal behavior and meteorological phenomena before major earthquakes have been reported throughout history. Bio-mimetics or bionics aims at learning disaster anticipation from animals. Since modern science is reluctant to address this problem an effort has been made to track down the knowledge available to ancient natural philosophers. Starting with an archaeologically documented human sacrifice around 1700 B.C. during the Minoan civilization immediately before a large earthquake, which killed the participants, earthquake prediction knowledge throughout antiquity is evaluated. Major practical experience with this phenomenon has been gained from a Chinese earthquake prediction initiative nearly half a century ago. Some quakes, like that of Haicheng, were recognized in advance. However, the destructive Tangshan earthquake was not predicted, which was interpreted as an inherent failure of prediction based on animal phenomena. This is contradicted on the basis of reliable Chinese documentation provided by the responsible earthquake study commission. The Tangshan earthquake was preceded by more than 2,000 reported animal anomalies, some of which were of very dramatic nature. They are discussed here. Any physical phenomenon, which may cause animal unrest, must involve energy turnover before the main earthquake event. The final product, however, of any energy turnover is heat. Satellite based infrared measurements have indeed identified significant thermal anomalies before major earthquakes. One of these cases, occurring during the 2001 Bhuj earthquake in Gujarat, India, is analyzed together with parallel animal anomalies observed in the Gir national park. It is suggested that the time window is identical and that both phenomena have the same geophysical origin. It therefore remains to be demonstrated that energy can be released locally before major earthquake events. It is shown that by considering appropriate geophysical feedback processes, this is possible for large scale energy conversion phenomena within highly non-linear geophysical mechanisms. With satellite monitored infrared anomalies indicating possible epicenters and local animal and environmental observations immediately initiated, the learning experience towards an understanding of the phenomena involved could be accelerated.

Pengembangan Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik Berbasis Riset Pengaruh Getaran Makroseismik Terhadap Perilaku Ikan Lele (Clarias sp.): (Developing of Student Worksheet Based on Effect of Macroseismic on the Behaviour of Catfish (Clarias sp))

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2022

Decreasing scientific and proactive behavior caused low motivation and learning outcomes of class XI students of SMA Islam Terpadu Al-Kamal NW West Lombok. The development of Students Worksheets based on research on the effect of macroseismic vibrations on the behavior of Catfish (Clarias sp) is expected to make learning more interactive. This study has three purposes. Firstly, determining the effect of macroseismic vibrations on the behavior of Catfish (Clarias sp) followed by determining the feasibility of students' worksheets and its impact on the motivation and learning outcomes. This research consists of two stages, namely observing the behavioral response of Catfish (Clarias sp) to macroseismic vibrations and developing students' worksheets. Four D models which are modified into 3-D were used in developing students' worksheets. The product was validated by two validators and then tested on the students. The collection of motivation data and learning outcomes used questionnaires and tests (pretest-posttest) respectively. Macroseismic vibrations cause stress so that the catfish (Clarias sp) moves to the surface and jumps. The students' worksheets were declared worthy of being tested by the validators. Furthermore, biology teachers and students gave a positive response and stated that the students' worksheets were very good. The average student's motivation increased significantly from 60.38 to 80.88. Likewise, the average of learning outcomes rose significantly from 60.62 to 81.13. Macroseismic vibrations is a stressor that causes abnormal behavior of catfish (Clarias sp). The students' worksheets are stated feasible and very good by validators, biology teachers, and students. The product also raises significantly of student’s motivation and learning outcomes. Key words: students worksheets, students motivation, learning outcomes, earthquake Abstrak Perilaku ilmiah dan proaktif dalam percobaan yang rendah pada materi sistem koordinasi menyebabkan motivasi dan hasil belajar siswa kelas XI SMA Islam Terpadu Al-Kamal NW di bawah standar. Pengembangan Lembar Kerja Peserta Didik (LKPD) berbasis riset pengaruh getaran makroseismik terhadap perilaku Ikan Lele (Clarias sp) diharapkan membuat pembelajaran lebih interaktif. Tujuan penelitian adalah untuk mengetahui pengaruh getaran makroseismik terhadap perilaku Ikan Lele (Clarias sp), dan kelayakan LKPD serta dampaknya terhadap motivasi dan hasil belajar. Penelitian ini terdiri atas dua tahap yaitu tahapan pengamatan respon perilaku ikan terhadap getaran makroseismik dan riset pengembangan LKPD. Model pengembangan yang digunakan adalah 4-D yang dimodifikasi menjadi 3-D. Produk divalidasi oleh 2 validator kemudian diujicobakan siswa. Pengumpulan data motivasi dan hasil belajar menggunakan angket, lembar observasi, dan tes (pretest-posttest). Getaran makroseismik menyebabkan stres sehingga Ikan Lele (Clarias sp) bergerak menuju permukaan dan melompat. Produk LKPD dinyatakan layak diujicobakan oleh validator. Pendidik dan peserta didik memberikan respon positif dan menyatakan LKPD sangat baik. Rata-rata motivasi belajar siswa meningkat signifikan dari 60,38 menjadi 80,88. Begitu juga dengan rata-rata hasil belajar yang meningkat signifikan dari 60,62 menjadi 81,13. Makroseismik merupakan stresor yang menyebabkan Ikan Lele (Clarias sp) berperilaku abnormal. Produk LKPD berbasis riset perilaku Ikan Lele (Clarias sp) dinyatakan layak dan mendapat respon sangat baik sehingga dapat mampu meningkatkan motivasi serta hasil belajar siswa secara signifikan. Kata kunci: lembar kerja peserta didik, motivasi siswa, hasil belajar, gempa bumi.

Attempted Cannibalism by a Matheran Leaping Frog, Indirana leithii (Ranixalidae)

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2020

A Critical Review of Ground Based Observations of Earthquake Precursors

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2021

We aim at giving a short review of the seismo-associated phenomena detected on ground that in recent years have been investigated as possible earthquake precursors. The paper comes together with a companion article–published on this same volume by Picozza et al., 2021–devoted to summarize the space-based observation of earthquake–precursors by satellites missions. In the present work, we give an overview of the observations carried out on ground in order to identify earthquake precursors by distinguishing them from the large background constituted by both natural non-seismic and artificial sources. We start discussing the measurements of mechanical parameters and variations of geochemical fluids detected before earthquakes; then we review thermal and atmospheric oscillations; finally, observations of electromagnetic and ionospheric parameters possibly related to the occurrence of impeding earthquakes are discussed. In order to introduce a so large field of research, we focus only on some main case studies and statistical analyses together with the main hypotheses and models proposed in literature in order to explain the observed phenomenology.

A novel tool to untangle the ecology and fossil preservation knot in exceptionally preserved biotas

Article

Sep 2021
EARTH PLANET SC LETT

Understanding the functioning of extinct ecosystems is a complicated knot of ecological, evolutionary, and preservational strands that must be untangled. For instance, anatomical and behavioral differences can profoundly alter fossilization pathways. This is particularly true in exceptionally preserved soft-bodied biotas that record the earliest phases of animal evolution during the Cambrian Explosion and the Ordovician Radiation. Herein, a novel method of data partitioning based on probabilistic modelling is developed to examine these processes for the Walcott Quarry, Burgess Shale, Canada (510Ma), and the Fezouata Shale, Morocco (c. 475Ma). The modelling shows that the mechanism for soft-tissue preservation in the Walcott Quarry is ecologically selective, favoring the endobenthos. This is not found in the Fezouata Shale. Taken in concert with bioturbation data, a new model of comparative preservation is developed based on sedimentary flow dynamics. This suggests that during the Cambrian Explosion and Ordovician Radiation the most exceptional fossils sites must still be calibrated against each other to understand the unfolding evolutionary events and the ecological structuring of ancient animal communities.

A Machine Learning‐Based Detection of Earthquake Precursors Using Ionospheric Data

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2020
RADIO SCI

Detection of precursors of strong earthquakes is a challenging research area. Recently, it has been shown that strong earthquakes affect electron distribution in the regional ionosphere with indirectly observable changes in the ionospheric delays of GPS signals. Especially, the total electron content (TEC) estimated from GPS data can be used in the seismic precursor detection for strong earthquakes. Although physical mechanisms are not well understood yet, GPS‐based seismic precursors can be observed days prior to the occurrence of the earthquake. In this study, a novel machine learning‐based technique, EQ‐PD, is proposed for detection of earthquake precursors in near real time based on GPS‐TEC data along with daily geomagnetic indices. The proposed EQ‐PD technique utilizes support vector machine (SVM) classifier to decide whether an observed spatiotemporal anomaly is related to an earthquake precursor or not. The data fed to the classifier are composed of spatiotemporal variability map of a region. Performance of the EQ‐PD technique is demonstrated in a case study over a region covering Italy in between the dates of 1 January 2014 and 30 September 2016. The data are partitioned into three nonoverlapping time periods, that are used for training, validation, and test of detecting precursors of earthquakes with magnitudes above 4 in Richter scale. The EQ‐PD technique is able to detect precursors in 17 out of 21 earthquakes while generating 7 false alarms during the validation period of 266 days and 22 out of 24 earthquakes while generating 13 false alarms during the test period of 282 days.

Untangling the ecology and fossil preservation knot for Paleozoic Biotas

Presentation

Full-text available

Jan 2020

Reliable Data Acquisition System for a Low-Cost Accelerograph Applied to Structural Health Monitoring

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2020

This paper presents and evaluates a continuous recording system designed for a low-cost seismic station. The architecture has three main blocks. An accelerometer sensor based on MEMS technology (Microelectromechanical Systems), an SBC platform (Single Board Computer) with embedded Linux and a microcontroller device. In particular, the microcontroller represents the central component which operates as an intermediate agent to manage the communication between the accelerometer and the SBC block. This strategy allows the system for data acquisition in real time. On the other hand, the SBC platform is used for storing and processing data as well as in order to configure the remote communication with the station. This proposal is intended as a robust solution for structural health monitoring (i.e. in order to characterize the response of an infrastructure before, during and after a seismic event). The paper details the communication scheme between the system components, which has been minutely designed to ensure the samples are collected without information loss. Furthermore, for the experimental evaluation the station was located in the facilities on a relevant infrastructure, specifically a hydroelectric dam. The system operation was compared and verified with respect to a certified accelerograph station. Results prove that the continuous recording system operates successfully and allows for detecting seismic events according to requirements of structural health applications (i.e. detects events with a frequency of vibration less than 100 Hz). Specifically, through the system implemented it was possible to characterize the effect of a seismic event of 4 MD reported by the regional seismology network and with epicenter located about 30 Km of the hydroelectric dam. Particularly, the vibration frequencies detected on the infrastructure are in the range of 13 Hz and 29 Hz. Regarding the station performance, results from experiments reveals an average CPU load of 51%, consequently the processes configured on the SBC platform do not involve an overload. Finally, the average energy consumption of the station is close to 2.4 W, therefore autonomy provided by the backup system is aroud of 10 hours

Did They Sense it Coming? A Pipelined Approach for Tsunami Prediction Based on Aquatic Behavior Using Ensemble Clustering and Fuzzy Rule-Based Classification

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2020

Tsunami is one of the real feelings of dread among humanity. Designing an early and effective Tsunami Warning System (TWS) is an immediate goal, for which the scientific community is working. Underwater seismic responses sensed by different numerical expository techniques have resulted in various cautionary frameworks proving successful in predicting tsunamis. However, multiple instances in the past where these warning systems have failed to generate alerts in time, has raised concerns to design even more efficient, diverse, and multidisciplinary warning methods or systems. However, there have been many instances in the past where these warning systems have failed to generate alerts in time, raising concerns about designing/implementing more efficient, diverse, and multidisciplinary warning methods or systems. Therefore, we propose a sequenced (EC G F C) approach for designing a TWS, based on Ensemble Clustering (EC G) and Classification for categorizing anomalous behavior in response to seismic perturbations, taking three aquatic animal behavioral datasets: Turtle, Earthworm, and Fish, as the input(s). EC G uses an existing state-of-the-art method bagged with Gaussian mixture model to label the dynamically changing behavioral data. The paper compares the results of the clustering ensemble used with baseline clustering methods on three behavior datasets as well as four benchmark datasets. The proposed sequenced (EC G F C) method is finally compared on three classification error metrics: MSE, MAE, and SMAPE on behavioral and existing ensemble frameworks in the state-of-the-art. INDEX TERMS: Tsunami Warning System, ensemble clustering, FRBCS, behavioral data, tsunami, alert.

Challenges to the assessment of benthic populations and biodiversity as a result of rhythmic behaviour: Video solutions from cabled observatories

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2012

All marine species studied thus far show rhythmic temporal patterns in their behavioural, physiological, and molecular functions, which are collectively known as biological rhythms. Biological rhythms are generated by biological clocks that time biological functions and are synchronized by geophysical cycles, such as the solar light-dark cycle and tidal cycle. On continental margins, behavioural rhythms can be detected by diel (i.e., 24-hour based) or seasonal periodical trawling as a consequence of massive inward and outward displacements of populations to and from the sample areas. As a result, significant errors in population/stock and biodiversity assessments performed by trawling may occur if timing of sampling is not taken into account. The increasing number of cabled and permanent multiparametric seafloor observatories now allows direct, continuous, and long-lasting monitoring of benthic ecosystems and analysis in relation to several habitat cycles. This review describes the adaptation of this technology to investigations of rhythmic behaviour by focussing on automated video imaging. Diel fluctuations in the number of video-observed individuals can be used as a measure of average population rhythmic behaviour. The potential implementation of automated video image analysis in relation to animal tracking and classification procedures based on the combined use of morphometric tools and multivariate statistics is detailed in relation to populational and community studies. Based on video cameras mounted at multiparametric cabled observatories, an integrated time-series analysis protocol using chronobiomedical procedures is proposed to place video-recorded bioinformation in an oceanographic context. © 2012 by R.N. Gibson, R.J.A. Atkinson, J.D.M. Gordon, R.N. Hughes, D.J. Hughes, and I.P. SmithCRC Press is an imprint of Taylor & Francis Group, an Informa business.

Application of Bayesian robust design model to assess the impacts of a hurricane on shorebird demography

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2018

The increasing use of Bayesian inference in population demography requires rapid advancements in modeling frameworks to approach the rigor and flexibility of the current suite of maximum‐likelihood models. We developed an unbiased, Jolly–Seber robust design (JSRD) model that is both accessible and generalizable in a Bayesian hierarchical multistate framework. We integrated band and age‐classification data to estimate site entry, temporary emigration, and apparent survival rates, as well as estimate age‐class specific abundances. The complete model parameterization is provided in the Appendix S1, as well as tools for simulating capture histories and an assessment of model fit. We applied this model to determine whether these demographic processes in non‐breeding population of American oystercatchers (Haematopus palliatus) were affected by a major hurricane event (Hurricane Matthew) in coastal Georgia. The JSRD model was demonstrably unbiased at relatively small sample sizes, and the majority of parameters were identifiable in the fully saturated model parameterization. In the model application, we found that Hurricane Matthew temporarily altered local population abundances of American oystercatchers through increased movements of individuals into and out of the observable population, but mortality rates were largely unaffected. Together, our results suggest that American oystercatchers were largely able to avoid the immediate demographic consequences (i.e., reduced survival) of Hurricane Matthew. Integrating age and band ratios from survey data allowed for more descriptive and potentially less biased estimates of age‐specific abundance, relative to estimates generated solely from either mark–resight or survey data.

Review: Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2018

In public perception, abnormal animal behavior is widely assumed to be a potential earthquake precursor, in strong contrast to the viewpoint in natural sciences. Proponents of earthquake prediction via animals claim that animals feel and react abnormally to small changes in environmental and physico-chemical parameters related to the earthquake preparation process. In seismology, however, observational evidence for changes of physical parameters before earthquakes is very weak. In this study, we reviewed 180 publications regarding abnormal animal behavior before earthquakes and analyze and discuss them with respect to (1) magnitude– distance relations, (2) foreshock activity, and (3) the quality and length of the published observations. More than 700 records of claimed animal precursors related to 160 earthquakes are reviewed with unusual behavior of more than 130 species. The precursor time ranges from months to seconds prior to the earthquakes, and the distances from a few to hundreds of kilometers. However, only 14 time series were published, whereas all other records are single observations. The time series are often short (the longest is 1 yr), or only small excerpts of the full data set are shown. The probability density of foreshocks and the occurrence of animal precursors are strikingly similar, suggesting that at least parts of the reported animal precursors are in fact related to foreshocks. Another major difficulty for a systematic and statistical analysis is the high diversity of data, which are often only anecdotal and retrospective. The study clearly demonstrates strong weaknesses or even deficits in many of the published reports on possible abnormal animal behavior. To improve the research on precursors, we suggest a scheme of yes and no questions to be assessed to ensure the quality of such claims.

Entertaining without endorsing: The case for the scientific investigation of anomalous cognition

Article

Mar 2018

Empirical reports in mainstream journals that human cognition extends in ways that challenge the current boundaries of science (anomalous cognition) has been viewed with dismay by many who see it as evidence that science is broken. Here the authors make the case for the value of conducting and publishing well-designed studies investigating anomalous cognition. They distinguish between the criteria that justify entertaining the possibility of anomalous cognition from those required to endorse it as a bona fide phenomenon. In evaluating these 2 distinct thresholds, the authors draw on Bayes’s theorem to argue that scientists may reasonably differ in their appraisals of the likelihood that anomalous cognition is possible. Although individual scientists may usefully vary in the criteria that they hold both for entertaining and endorsing anomalous cognition, we provide arguments for why researchers should consider adopting a liberal criterion for entertaining anomalous cognition while maintaining a very strict criterion for the outright endorsement of its existence. Grounded in an understanding of the justifiability of disparate views on the topic, the authors encourage humility on both the part of those who present evidence in support of anomalous cognition and those who dispute the merit of its investigation.

Evaluation of 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 earthquake data sets in African – Asian region during 1966 - 2015

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2018

This article evaluates the occurrence of 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 earthquake data sets for the period of 50 years (that is, January 1, 1966 to December 31, 2015) in African and Western Asia region. It is bounded by latitude 40° S to 40° N and longitude 30° W to 60° E with the focal depth of 0–700 km. Seventy seven thousand, six hundred and ninety-six data points were presented for the analysis. The data used were extracted from earthquake catalog of Advanced National Seismic system via http://quake.geo.berkeley.edu/cnss/, an official website of the Northern California Earthquake Data Centre, USA. Each datum comprised the earthquake occurrence date, time of the earthquake occurrence, epicenter's coordinates, focal depth and magnitude. The Gutenberg-Richter's relationship being the longest observed empirical relationship in seismology, analysis of variance and time series were used to analyze the seismicity of the study area. Annual distributions of earthquake occurrence based on magnitude variations with the limit 0 ≤ M ≤ 8 were presented. The two constants a and b in the Gutenberg-Richter's equation, magnitude of completeness (MC) adjusted R-Square and F-value for the period of 1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, 1996–2005, 2006–2015, and the entire period of investigation ranging from 1966 to 2015 were determined so as to investigate the variations of these parameters on earthquake occurrence over time. The histograms of earthquake occurrence against magnitude of earthquakes for the selected years (1966–1975, 1976–1985, 1986–1995, 1996–2005, 2006–2015, and 1966–2015), and the decadal frequency distributions of earthquake occurrence were also plotted. The focal depth occurrence for each magnitude bins (0–0.9, 1–1.9, 2–2.9, 3–3.9, 4–4.9, 5–5.9, 6–6.9, 7–7.9, 8–8.9) were grouped into shallow, intermediate, and deep depths ranging from 0 to 70, 71 to 300, and 301 to 700 km as being used in seismology. The neural network analysis was also applied to the magnitude of the earthquake. The network uses a time series magnitude data as input with the output being the magnitude of the following day. If the nature of the earthquakes time series is stochastic, modeling and prediction is possible. The earthquake data sets presented in this article can further be adopted in the study of seismicity pattern, b-value using series of models, earthquake prediction and variations of earthquake parameters on African and/or Arabian plates. When this approach is integrated with other technique(s), it can provide insights to stability of African lithospehric plates especially the coastal region of Africa.

Current Efforts for Prediction and Assessment of Natural Disasters: Earthquakes, Tsunamis, Volcanic eruptions, Hurricanes, Tornados, and Floods

Article

Nov 2017
SCI IRAN

This article presents a state-of-the-art review of different methods, signal and image processing techniques, and statistical analyses used for prediction and assessment of natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, hurricanes, tornadoes, and floods. Application of the big data paradigm for the aforementioned natural disasters is also discussed. The research for increasingly more sophisticated computational models will continue to achieve more accurate predictions for various natural disasters.

Terrestrial animal tracking as an eye on life and planet

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2015

Earthquake prediction by animals: A review of Seismic Anomalous Animal Behaviour (SAAB)

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2016

M. Bhattacharyya

Earthquake prediction with cent percent accuracy has always been an infeasible task and remains the same even in this age of advanced technologies. There are advanced soft wares to routinely predict the weather and the motions of planetary bodies, but there exists not a single fool-proof method to forewarn us of impending seismic events. Animals have been known to show signs of approaching dangers, even earthquakes, in diverse cultures from different parts of the world. Some limited research has also been done on such bizarre animal behaviour in relation to earthquakes. This paper attempts to collate the varied instances of Seismic Anomalous Animal Behaviour or SAAB, review the research done on the possible cues that trigger them, review the possible mechanism of evolution of such behaviour and re-evaluate the status of SAAB as an effective earthquake predictive technique. Noting a dearth of research in India, the paper also suggests directions for research on SAAB from an Indian perspective.

Operational earthquake forecasting

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011

Nature of Pre-Earthquake Phenomena and their Effects on Living Organisms

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2013

Earthquakes occur when tectonic stresses build up deep in the Earth before catastrophic rupture. During the build-up of stress, processes that occur in the crustal rocks lead to the activation of highly mobile electronic charge carriers. These charge carriers are able to flow out of the stressed rock volume into surrounding rocks. Such outflow constitutes an electric current, which generates electromagnetic (EM) signals. If the outflow occurs in bursts, it will lead to short EM pulses. If the outflow is continuous, the currents may fluctuate, generating EM emissions over a wide frequency range. Only ultralow and extremely low frequency (ULF/ELF) waves travel through rock and can reach the Earth surface. The outflowing charge carriers are (i) positively charged and (ii) highly oxidizing. When they arrive at the Earth surface from below, they build up microscopic electric fields, strong enough to field-ionize air molecules. As a result, the air above the epicentral region of an impending major earthquake often becomes laden with positive airborne ions. Medical research has long shown that positive airborne ions cause changes in stress hormone levels in animals and humans. In addition to the ULF/ELF emissions, positive airborne ions can cause unusual reactions among animals. When the charge carriers flow into water, they oxidize water to hydrogen peroxide. This, plus oxidation of organic compounds, can cause behavioral changes among aquatic animals.

EPM–DCNN: Earthquake Prediction Models Using Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Article

Oct 2022

Earthquakes usually cause severe injuries and loss of life, so researchers have developed various methods to predict them. However, the prediction accuracies of these methods are not satisfactory. Unlike most artificial intelligence earthquake prediction methods using earthquake catalogs or seismic wave data, this article proposes three earthquake prediction models based on deep convolutional neural network-based (EPM-DCNN) using 11 continuous earthquake precursory observation item data, including fluid, geomagnetic, and deformation disciplines. To enhance the accuracy of the location prediction of earthquakes, we propose a method to divide the research area into six prediction blocks based on the K-means++ clustering algorithm using the epicenter of historical earthquakes. Using earthquake precursory observation time-series data from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018, we construct approximately 34,000 samples by sliding a fixed window size. Each sample is subdivided into 13 categories by combining the magnitude label and prediction block label. The experimental results show that EPM–DCNN B proposed in this article has an accuracy of 99.0% and a recall of 99.8%, which demonstrates the effectiveness of EPM–DCNN for seismic prediction compared to several state-of-the-art baselines.

PREDICCIÓN DE TERREMOTOS, ¿SERÁ POSIBLE?

Poster

Full-text available

Jun 2018

RESUMEN Se analizaron diversos estudios sobre posibles "indicadores o mecanismos de predicción de terremotos", donde se profundizaron de mejor manera la variación del campo magnético, aguas subterráneas e ionósfera, además del comportamiento animal y pulsos magnéticos. Para ello se hizo referencia a la variación del componente vertical del campo magnético monitoreado antes de los terremotos de Tohoku, Japón (2011), Maule, Chile (2010) y Sumatra, Indonesia (2004), además de cambios en las propiedades químicas del agua previo al terremoto de Van, Turquía (2011) y una serie de anomalías tanto ionosféricas como electromagnéticas evidenciadas antes de los terremotos de L'Aquila, Italia (2009) y Contamana, Perú (2011) que afectaron el comportamiento de ciertos animales. Tomando el contenido y desarrollo de estos estudios se buscó relacionar anomalías tanto ionosféricas como geomagnéticas que afectaron a la tierra dentro de un rango de distancia cercano respecto al lugar del sismo tiempo antes de que este se llevara a cabo, dando como resultado una serie de perturbaciones que suponían una relación entre dichos mecanismos y por ello la posibilidad de que estos puedan proporcionarnos una manera de predecir eventos sísmicos.

A systematic review of prediction methods for emergency management

Article

Jun 2021

With the trend of global warming and destructive human activities, the frequent occurrences of catastrophes have posed devastating threats to human life and social stability worldwide. The emergency management (EM) system plays a significant role in saving people's lives and reducing property damage. The prediction system for the occurrence of emergency events and resulting impacts is widely recognized as the first stage of the EM system, the accuracy of which has a significant impact on the efficiency of resource allocation, dispatching, and evacuation. In fact, the number and variety of contributions to prediction techniques, such as statistic analysis, artificial intelligence, and simulation method, are exploded in recent years, motivating the need for a systematic analysis of the current works on disaster prediction. To this end, this paper presents a systematic review of contributions on prediction methods for emergency occurrence and resource demand of both natural and man-made disasters. Through a detailed discussion on the features of each type of emergency event, this paper presents a comprehensive survey of state-of-the-art prediction technologies which have been widely applied in EM. After that, we summarize the challenges of current efforts and point out future directions.

إشارات القرآن الخفية إلى إرهاصات الزلازل القوية

Article

Full-text available

Apr 2021

Khallaf El Ghalbi

Using Bayesian induction methods in risk assessment and communication

Article

Aug 2020

J.D. Applen

Bayes's theorem allows us to use subjective thinking to find numerical values to formulate assessments of risk. It is more than a mathematical formula; it can be thought of as an iterative process that challenges us to imagine the potential for "unknown, unknowns." The heuristics involved in this process can be enhanced if they take into consideration some of the established risk assessment and communication models used today in technical communication that are concerned with the social construction of meaning and the kairos involved in rhetorical situations. Understanding the connection between Bayesian analysis and risk communication will allow us to better convey the potential for risk that is based on probabilistic assumptions.

A combined estimator using TEC and b-value for large earthquake prediction

Article

Jan 2020

Sergio Baselga

Ionospheric anomalies have been shown to occur a few days before several large earthquakes. The published works normally address examples limited in time (a single event or few of them) or space (a particular geographic area), so that a clear method based on these anomalies which consistently yields the place and magnitude of the forthcoming earthquake, anytime and anywhere on earth, has not been presented so far. The current research is aimed at prediction of large earthquakes, that is with magnitude Mw 7 or higher. It uses as data bank all significant earthquakes occurred worldwide in the period from January 1, 2011 to December 31, 2018. The first purpose of the research is to improve the use of ionospheric anomalies in the form of TEC grids for earthquake prediction. A space–time TEC variation estimator especially designed for earthquake prediction will show the advantages with respect to the use of simple TEC values. Further, taking advantage of the well-known predictive abilities of the Gutenberg–Richter law’s b-value, a combined estimator based on both TEC anomalies and b-values will be designed and shown to improve prediction performance even more.

Proficient 3-class classification model for confident overlap value based fuzzified aquatic information extracted tsunami prediction

Article

Aug 2019

Overlap Function Based Fuzzified Aquatic Behaviour Information Extracted Tsunami Prediction Model

Article

Jan 2019

Past natural hazards have produced numerous biological and physical indicators that can be used to predict similar instances in the future. These indicators can be sensed dynamically underwater or on land to generate real time alerts. This article proposes the first validated fuzzified system to predict tsunamis (FABETP) using an overlap-based algorithm. This proposed algorithm can predict seismicity based on underwater marine animal's anomalous behavior, characterized and implemented as biological indicators (i.e., aquatic animal behavioral attributes). Relevant information is extracted from these attributes and used to design fuzzy rules that generate opinion-based alerts. More precisely, the proposed algorithm, Overlap-based Fuzzified rated Marine Behavior, (OBF_MB), derives alert rules when executed on a sea turtle behavior dataset obtained from an online repository. The deployed underwater sensor-collected dataset includes the following measurements: induced electromagnetic field, undersea turtle count, and angle of deviation (in terms of the turtles' navigation direction formulated per month and per day). These values are used as the inputs to the proposed system. To generate an opinion, an information gain-based opinion score is used to calculate the opinion deviations from the generated opinions of the default rule. For future data values, 2004 is used here as the default opinion year and the scenarios is the default rule. This paper formulates three classes of opinions using the proposed algorithm: Alert, Pre-Alert and No-Alert. These opinions can be used in the future to generate real-time alerts based on aquatic animal behavior.

Deep Learning of Multisensory Streaming Data for Predictive Modelling with Applications in Finance, Ecology, Transport and Environment

Chapter

Jan 2019

Nikola Kirilov Kasabov

This chapter presents methods for using eSNN and BI-SNN for deep, incremental learning and predictive modelling of streaming data and for deep knowledge representation. The methods are applied for predictive modelling in the areas of finance, ecology, transport and environment using respective multisensory streaming data. Each of these applications require specific model design in terms of data preparation, SNN model parameters, experimental setting and validation. Each of the methods are illustrated with case study problems and data, but their applicability can be extended to a wider class of problems where multisensory streaming data is available.

How crocodiles react in a seismic event? Observations in Crocodylus moreletii

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2017

Cómo reaccionan los cocodrilos en un evento sísmico? Observaciones en Crocodylus moreletii. We describe the observed behavior in crocodiles (Crocodylus moreletii) of the UMA "Granja de Lagartos" in Tabasco, Mexico, before, during and after the seismic event of September 7, 2017. We discussed the possibility that animals, particularly crocodiles , can be able to announce an earthquake event in advance.

Can animals predict earthquakes?: Bio-sentinels as seismic sensors in communist China and beyond

Article

May 2018
STUD HIST PHILOS SCI

Fa-ti Fan

This paper examines the international research on abnormal animal behavior prior to earthquakes, with a focus on Chinese seismology during the Cultural Revolution. China experienced a series of powerful earthquakes in the 1960s and 1970s; in response, its scientists developed approaches to earthquake prediction, including the use of bio-sentinels. The paper demonstrates that Chinese seismology did not treat an earthquake simply as a geophysical event, but rather as an amalgam of environmental phenomena, including sensory experiences. Hence, distributive experience and sensory networks of humans and bio-sentinels constituted an important component of studying the environment. This historical case suggests insights into bio-monitoring of the global environment.

Statistical Analysis of Natural Water Conductivity Data Behavior in Two Wells: Seismic Coastal Border Limits of Guerrero-Oaxaca States, Mexico

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2017

Fidel Martínez-García

In this document, with the purpose of strengthening more in the knowledge of the previous events on the earthquakes, the possible connection between natural voltage and electromagnetic energy emanating from the inner layers of the Earth and the seismic activity in the Mexican seismic coastal border, is evaluated, through an indirect estimation of the statistical analysis of natural water conductivity data (μS/cm) and the seismic activity occurred in the same period within continental and marine environment, monitored intensively from February 2 to April 15, 2015 and from May 11 to July 17, 2015 in two ordinary man-made wells. A total 128,469 water conductivity data with a sampling frequency of 45 seconds, confronted with 950 earthquakes occurred in the same periods to distance range of 50, 100, 150, 200, 250, 300, 350 and 400 kilometers far away from a conductivity sensor, are analyzed. As results, in the range of 50 kilometers round the conductivity sensor, the study area applied demonstrates to be a location where the major quantity of earthquakes and most atypical conductivity variations occurred. The influence of the local environment on the behavior of the conductivity data is debated according to the geographical position of the conductivity sensor. Within the continental environment, the range of 0 to 50 km showed the most important statistical significance, revealing to have the most number of earthquakes, with higher values and more intensity, particularly when the trend of conductivity data is descending. Within the marine environment, a very similar connection between the conductivity data behavior and seismic activity occurred was observed.

Literature Review on the relation between Animals Unusual Behavior and Premonitory Symptoms of an Earthquake

Article

Mar 2017

A Study on the Correlation of Milk Yield of Cows with Seismicity and ULF Magnetic Field Variations

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2016

A statistical study on the basis of one-year data of 2014 has been performed in order to find whether abnormal animal behavior is related with seismic activity and also whether the ULF (Ultra Low Frequency) electromagnetic radiation might be a possible sensory mechanism of abnormal animal behavior. Abnormal animal behavior has been studied with the use of digitally recorded milk yield of cows at Ibaraki Prefecture Livestock Station, and the ULF magnetic field changes have been studied with the data at a magnetic observatory of Kakioka. As the result of correlation analyses, clear responses are observed for both the milk yield of cows and ULF magnetic field changes (both ULF radiation (ULF emissions from the lithosphere) and ULF depression (as an indicator of lower ionospheric perturbations)) for most powerful and not distant earthquakes (EQs) with magnitude > 6, that is, the milk yield of cows is found to exhibit a conspicuous depletion about 17-18 days before an EQ, though the correlation coefficient is not so big. Another important objective in this paper is to identify that ULF radiation is the main agent of abnormal behavior so that we have compared the temporal evolutions of milk yield of cows, ULF radiation and ULF depression for three major EQs. As a result, it is found that ULF radiation happens, at least, during the periods of abnormal depletion of milk yield of cows.

On the Precursory Abnormal Animal Behavior and Electromagnetic Effects for the Kobe Earthquake (M~6) on April 12, 2013

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2016

After the 2011 Tohoku earthquake (EQ), there have been numerous aftershocks in the eastern and Pacific Ocean of Japan, but EQs are still rare in the western part of Japan. In this situation a relatively large (magnitude (M) ~6) EQ happened on April 12 (UT), 2013 at a place close to the former 1995 Kobe EQ (M~7), so we have tried to find whether there existed any precursors to this EQ, especially abnormal animal behavior (milk yield of cows), observed at Kagawa, Shikoku, near the EQ epicenter. The milk yield of cows has been continuously monitored at Kagawa, and it is found that the milk yield exhibited an abnormal depletion about 10 days before the EQ. This behavior has been extensively compared with the former electromagnetic precursors (ULF radiation, ionospheric perturbation). This leads to the discussion on the sensory mechanism of unusual behavior of mild yield of cows, and it may be suggested that ULF radiation among different electromagnetic precursors is a mostly likely driver, at least, for this EQ.

Natural Water Conductivity Behavior within the Seismic Pacific Coast of Southern Mexico

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2016

Near faults or unstable areas where an earthquake could happen with capacity to damage buildings or infrastructure, there is often a previous energy that wanders around surroundings, this energy regularly is associated with electromagnetic emissions that generate an electric potential frequently studied as very, ultra-low and extreme frequency emissions (VLF-ULF-ELF_ EM) by remote sensing; under the assumption that this natural potential exists, in aquatic environment within the micro-seismic active area in the coastal border of Guerrero and Oaxaca estates, Mexico, an intensive conductivity monitoring in two artesian well was carried out. The results of intensive conductivity (μS/cm) monitoring done since March to July of 2015, using a low-cost Data logger sensor are presented. The results obtained of the study of 235 seismic events show that 61.64% of them manifest prior conductivity oscillation versus 38.36% of early conductivity oscillation, the possible origin of such oscillation and the likely relation with underground water recharge flux, ground light compression, ground tilt, local electromagnetic energy emissions, human interaction, was debated. The data analysis for long periods of conductivity monitoring and seismic events show that when the number of seismic events becomes intense, conductivity decreases and vice versa, resulting large fluctuations that grow over time like waves; within the study area a possible previous fluctuated long-term energy associated with earthquakes produced around could be arising.

Talking Objects

Chapter

Jan 2014

Karen Stollznow

Talking to plants is believed to help them to grow. We name our boats, planes, and hurricanes, and sometimes even our genitalia. We yell at the car when it doesn’t work and swear at the chair when we stub our toe, but some believe that objects can talk back to us. Some religions believe that everything has a spirit or life force, including inanimate objects. This chapter is about talking to objects, and talking objects. We explore possessed possessions, and why we’re more likely to have a haunted watch than a haunted toaster. We also look at haunted items believed to have language abilities, including talking paintings, talking dolls, and a haunted dress that has a story to tell.

ICEF Report. Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and guidelines for utilization

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2011
ANN GEOPHYS-GERMANY

Tsunami

Article

Oct 2015

Robert Armon

Tsunami is a sudden, rapid and disastrous phenomenon that is very difficult to forecast earlier. However, with the development of GPS and other satellite linked system it is possible to detect/indicate potential tsunami formation based on ocean waves increased pressure or other phenomena such as: Earthquakes or volcanic eruption that may release compounds that can be detected with certain sensors.

ECOLOGY. Terrestrial animal tracking as an eye on life and planet

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2015
SCIENCE

Moving animals connect our world, spreading pollen, seeds, nutrients, and parasites as they go about the their daily lives. Recent integration of high-resolution Global Positioning System and other sensors into miniaturized tracking tags has dramatically improved our ability to describe animal movement. This has created opportunities and challenges that parallel big data transformations in other fields and has rapidly advanced animal ecology and physiology. New analytical approaches, combined with remotely sensed or modeled environmental information, have opened up a host of new questions on the causes of movement and its consequences for individuals, populations, and ecosystems. Simultaneous tracking of multiple animals is leading to new insights on species interactions and, scaled up, may enable distributed monitoring of both animals and our changing environment. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Operational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Utilization

Article

Full-text available

Aug 2011
ANN GEOPHYS-ITALY

Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC), appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one) that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (< 1% per day). Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecastingof aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale) in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy, which may also be useful in other countries. The public should be provided with open sources of information about the short-term probabilities of future earthquakes that are authoritative, scientific, consistent, and timely. Advisories should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated seismicity forecasting systems that have been rigorously reviewed and updated by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake information. The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and they should be under continuous prospective testing against established long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public. Earthquake probability thresholds should be established to guide alert levels based on objective analysis of costs and benefits, as well as the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. The principles of effective public communication established by social science research should be applied to the delivery of seismic hazard information.

Earthquake Prediction Studies Using Radon as a Precursor in N-W Himalayas, India: A Case Study

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2005
TERR ATMOS OCEAN SCI

Many theoretical and empirical algorithms have been proposed in the literature for radon release; however whilst its relation with earthquake occurrence has been developed on occasions, there have been no specific complete studies of this phenomenon. In this study, radon monitoring was carried out using emanometry technique at Palampur and Dalhousie stations in the Kangra valley of Himachal Pradesh (India) from June 1996 to September 1999. Discrete radon concentrations were recorded in soil-gas and groundwater at both the stations. Radon anomalies were correlated with microseismic events recorded along the Main Boundary Thrust (MBT) of N-W Himalaya in the grid (30-34°N, 74-78°E). The influence of meteorological parameters viz. temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and wind velocity on radon concentration was qualitatively evaluated. The radon exhalation showed positive correlation with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity and negative correlation with wind velocity. Both positive and negative radon anomalies were recorded. The study reveals the precursory nature of radon anomalies and their correlation with microseismic events in 62% of the cases but prediction of earthquakes is yet a remote possibility. From the analysis it has been found that radon anomaly is not only influenced by seismic parameters but also by meteorological parameters and the nature of carrier gases/fluids. To learn more about the phenomenon, simultaneous recording of various gases (He, CO 2, CH 4) and meteorological parameters, together with multiple continuous measurements of radon have been suggested.

Population Characteristics of the Common Toad (Bufo bufo) Visiting a Breeding Site in Mid-Wales

Article

Full-text available

Feb 1980

(1) For 1978 the toad population migrating to the lake at Llandrindod Wells was estimated at 5700 males and 1950 females. The catchment area for toads was estimated as 340 ha, giving a density of twenty-three breeding toads ha-1 around the lake. The observed sex ratio of three males to one female is possibly explained by females breeding less frequently than males. (2) The number of toads moving was most strongly correlated with soil temperature, and toads did not move when the dusk air temperature was below 4 degrees C. The numbers moving each night increased throughout the migration, probably reflecting the increasing catchment area with distance from the lake. (3) Male toads arrived at the lake before females, and small males tended to arrive first. This probably overcomes competition for females from large males. Males marked at the beginning of the migration were recaptured throughout the collecting period, showing that after arriving at the lake some stayed for the entire migration. (4) Although breeding advantages increase with size, the size of toads is limited, probably by environmental factors. In relation to mate selection, female size is tied to male size but not vice versa. Both male and female length distributions are statistically normal. Weight and length are strongly correlated for males, gravid females and spent females.

VLF/LF sounding of the lower ionosphere to study the role of atmospheric oscillations in lithosphere–ionosphere coupling

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2001

Subionospheric VLF signal perturbations possibly related to earthquakes

Article

Full-text available

Aug 1998

A likely VLF subionospheric signal effect related to seismic activity was first reported by Hayakawa et al. [1996a, b] in association with the great Kobe earthquake. We have analyzed similar data during periods around 10 other great earthquakes (magnitude M>6) in order to understand the main features of such an effect. The following characteristics emerged from our analysis: The effect appears as a transient oscillation with a 5- to 10-day period, which is initiated a few days before a large earthquake and decays over a few days to weeks after it. It is mainly related to crustal earthquakes. It appears when resonant atmospheric oscillations with periods in a range of 5-11 days exist before the earthquake. The seismic influence on the VLF signal is probably explained by the generation of long-period gravity waves during the earthquake process and their intensification at heights of 70-90 km.

Earthquake prediction studies using radon as a precursor in N-W Himalayas, India: A case study

Article

Full-text available

Jan 2005
TERR ATMOS OCEAN SCI

Sex-biased site fidelity and orientation behaviour in reproductive natterjack toads (Bufo calamita)

Article

Full-text available

May 2010
ETHOL ECOL EVOL

Ulrich Sinsch

Site fidelity, initial orientation and homing performance were studied in the natterjack toad Bufo calamita near Bonn, Western Germany, during three breeding periods. Capture-mark-recapture experiments demonstrated that most males stayed within areas of about 0.5 km during the whole study period. If rainfall provided ephemeral ponds suitable as spawning sites within these areas, local males advertised the position of the ponds by calling. Homeward orientation and homing success of displaced males showed that males were strictly attached to a pond once chosen for several days. The paths of individuals were registered using a mechanical tracking device. However, displaced reproductive females did not return to the breeding pond, if another pond with calling males was less distant from the release site.The initial orientation of untreated males towards their home pond remained unaffected by the presence or absence of a guiding breeding chorus at the home pond. Not even breeding choruses at other nearby sites biassed the directional choice. In contrast, displaced females always approached the less distant breeding chorus. Males with attached bar magnets were disoriented as a group but every individual followed a relatively straight path. Deprivation of olfactory cues impaired the homeward orientation of males but did not impede it entirely or affect the straightness of the path. Anosmic females showed the same directional choice as untreated ones. Blindfolded males were disoriented as a group and also as individuals moving frequently in irregular or spiral paths. Blindfolding reduced the mean locomotory activity significantly to about 40% of that of controls. The homing success of magnetically disturbed or anosmic males was the same as in untreated males but both treatments reduced the homing speed.In conclusion, males used magnetic, olfactory, and visual but not acoustic cues for initial orientation towards the calling site. Even if deprived of magnetic or olfactory information during the return journey, they were still able to home using alternative cues after a temporal delay. Reproductive females, however, used mainly acoustic information (conspecific breeding choruses) for long distance piloting towards suitable breeding sites.

Reactions of Grey Herons (Ardea cinerea) to Seismic Tremors

Article

Full-text available

Oct 1997

Reuven Yosef

Earthquakes are usually a matter of seconds and while experiencing the phenomenon few observe the behaviour of the animals during the phenomenon. On 22 November 1995, at 06:16 hrs Israel Standard Time, an earthquake of a magnitude (Mw) of 7.2 on the Richter scale shocked Eilat, Israel. I first observed unusual behaviour at about 06:00 hrs when flocks of several avian species flew north. Also, a flock of about 50 Grey Herons (Ardea cinerea), that roosted on the salt pans, became increasingly restless and eventually took to the air at 06:08 hrs. Our primary objective was to describe the sensitivity exhibited by the flock of Grey Herons to the tremors which continued to occur for weeks after the initial shock. Observers remained at the salt pans for a week after the initial shock and noted if flock members displayed any physical discomfort (e. g., shaking wings, jumping or hopping without lift off) during the day, and prior to flying off, owing to no reasonable disturbance. Subsequently, the Seismology Division, Institute for Petroleum Research and Geophysics supplied data of tremors recorded for the same period. A total of 37 tremors of Mw = 3.9 or more were recorded. Majority of the tremors were Mw = 4.1, but an equal number of 4.4 and 4.5 combined were also recorded. Grey Herons reacted at all levels, although they appeared to ignore some tremors that were less than Mw = 4.2. However, the Herons took to the air when tremors were stronger than Mw = 4.3. Human observors partially felt tremors between the magnitudes of Mw = 4,1 to 4.4, but all stronger tremors were felt. One of the interesting and consistent observations was that the birds showed the first signs of restlessnes about 3 0 -6 0 seconds prior to the human observors ability to feel the tremors.

Seasonal-changes in the migratory behavior of the toad Bufo bufo – direction and magnitude of movements

Article

Full-text available

Aug 1988

Ulrich Sinsch

The migratory behaviour of the toad Bufo bufo was studied from February 1985 to April 1986 in the submontane region of Bavaria, West Germany. Toads were fitted with a mechanical tracking device to record individual paths of migration. Three aspects of migratory behaviour were quantified: orientation in relation to the breeding site, straightness of path, and locomotory activity. The annual activity period began with migration from the hibernation sites to the breeding pond in April. The paths went straight towards the breeding pond independent of the distance (70–420 m). During the period of oviposition the preference for the breeding site direction vanished and toads moved away from the breeding pond, but in less straight paths than before. In summer migratory activity decreased considerably and was restricted to small areas, the home ranges, at distances of 55–1600 m from the natal breeding pond. The straightness of path was rather low, because toads often returned to their starting points. During rainy nights toads occasionally left their home ranges for extensive excursions. In autumn most toads again migrated towards the breeding pond, but paths were significantly less straight and direct than in spring. However, toads stopped before reaching the breeding pond and hibernated in holes or under the leaf layer. The mortality rate of tracked toads was about 45%. The relative influence of 17 environmental variables on locomotory activity was evaluated by principal component analysis and stepwise multiple regression. Temperature at night and rainfall variables accounted for significant amounts of variance, whereas temperature by day, air humidity, and atmospheric pressure showed no correlation. Activity decreased if temperature approached 0 C or after long periods without rainfall. Within a certain range of tolerance, however, the locomotory activity of the toads was widely independent of environmental factors, indicating that endogeneous factors are more important sources of variation in the migratory behaviour of these toads than commonly assumed.

Middle latitude LF (40 kHz) phase variations associated with earthquakes for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2004
PHYS CHEM EARTH

The phase (P) and amplitude (A) anomalies in subionospheric LF signal (40 kHz) along the path Japan–Kamchatka of 2300 km have been studied for the data observed by means of a digital OminiPAL receiver for 2 years. The empirical model of background P and A daily variations for quiet and disturbed geomagnetic conditions in the absence of seismic activity is developed. We pay special attention to the P and A features during large magnetic storms. A sensitivity threshold of LF signal to deforming influence of the geomagnetic and seismic factors is defined. Two cases of bay-like behavior of LF phase and amplitude in nighttime are described as a clear earthquake precursor of LF signal. We have found from the statistical study that LF signal effect is observed only for earthquakes with M⩾5.5 and we discuss the possible mechanisms of the effect.

DC electric field amplification in the mid-latitude ionosphere over seismically active faults

Article

Full-text available

Dec 2006

DC electric field in the ionosphere above seismically active regions can be formed in a process of external current insertion into the atmosphere–ionosphere electric circuit. This current arises as a result of convective upward transport of charged aerosols and their gravitational sedimentation. Aerosols are injected into the atmosphere by soil gases intensified in the zones of active faults. In general the horizontal distribution of injected aerosols in such zones is asymmetric. In this report we propose a method for computation of DC electric field generated in the ionosphere and the atmosphere by external electric current with arbitrary spatial distribution. Oblique magnetic field and the conjugate ionosphere effects are taken into consideration.

A statistically significant relation between rn flux and weak earthquakes in the Dead Sea Rift Valley

Article

Full-text available

Jun 2003
GEOLOGY

Detailed monitoring of radon (Rn) flux in gravel was carried out for a period of eight years near the active Dead Sea rift fault. The temporal relationship between hundreds of weak earthquakes (4.6 ML 0) and Rn flux signals was tested for time intervals related to the start time of 110 Rn flux signals. Earthquakes located within three pull-apart grabens of the Dead Sea rift valley were found to occur preferentially within the time interval of the first 3 days after the start time of 110 Rn anomalies, and the excess of earthquakes (82% relative to the expected value) is highly significant (p = .003%). However, a similar relationship is not found in the two weeks preceding or following the start time of the Rn anomalies for earthquakes occurring within the Dead Sea rift in structurally higher segments, or out of the Dead Sea rift.

Anomalies in VLF radio signals prior the Abruzzo earthquake ( M =6.3) on 6 April 2009

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2009

The VLF/LF radio signals method for studying preseimic activity is applied to the Abruzzo earthquake ( M =6.3, 6 April 2009). The data collected by three receivers located in Moscow (Russia), Graz (Austria) and Bari (Italy) at about 3000 km, 1000 km and 500 km from the epicenter were used. The signals received from the Sardinia (20.27 kHz) and the Sicily (45.9 kHz) transmitters, both located in Italy, were compared with those received from the Iceland (37.5 kHz), the Great Britain (19.58 kHz) and the Germany (23.4 kHz) transmitters. The propagation paths of the two Italian transmitters cross the epicentral area (seismic paths) unlike the paths of the other three signals (control paths). Using two different analyses, that are the study of the night-time signal and the research of shifts in the evening terminator times, clear anomalies were revealed 2–8 days before the occurrence of the Abruzzo earthquake in the seismic paths, while no anomalies have been found in the control paths.

Lithosphere-atmosphere-ionosphere coupling as governing mechanism for preseismic short-term events in atmosphere and ionosphere

Article

Full-text available

Nov 2004

We present a general concept of mechanisms of preseismic phenomena in the atmosphere and ionosphere. After short review of observational results we conclude: 1. Upward migration of fluid substrate matter (bubble) can lead to ousting of the hot water/gas near the ground surface and cause an earthquake (EQ) itself in the strength-weakened area; 2. Thus, time and place of the bubble appearance could be random values, but EQ, geochemistry anomaly and foreshocks (seismic, SA and ULF electromagnetic ones) are casually connected; 3. Atmospheric perturbation of temperature and density could follow preseismic hot water/gas release resulting in generation of atmospheric gravity waves (AGW) with periods in a range of 6?60min; 4. Seismo-induced AGW could lead to modification of the ionospheric turbulence and to the change of over-horizon radio-wave propagation in the atmosphere, perturbation of LF waves in the lower ionosphere and ULF emission depression at the ground.

Anomalies of LF signal during seismic activity in November-December 2004

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2005

A signal transmitted by Japan Time Standard LF station (40 kHz, Fukushima prefecture) and recorded in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski (Russia) is analyzed during a time interval from 1 July 2004 till 24 January 2005. This interval is characterized by quiet seismic conditions up to the beginning of November, but rather strong seismic activity occurs in November and December not far from Hokkaido (Japan) and in the region of northern Kuril Islands. There were three series of earthquakes with M=5.6?7.1 in a zone of sensitivity of our wave path during two months. Nighttime "bay-like" phase and amplitude anomalies of the LF signal are observed several days before and during every series of earthquakes. During the whole period of seismic activity a significant shift in terminator times is also evident. The spectrum of LF seismo-induced anomalies shows a clear increase for the period of about 25 min.

A Statistical Study on the Effect of Earthquakes on the Ionosphere, Based on the Subionospheric LF Propagation Data in Japan

Article

Full-text available

Sep 2006

A superimposed epoch analysis has been undertaken, in order to find the correlation of the ionospheric perturbations with seismic activity. We take the wave path from the Japanese LF transmitter (frequency=40 kHz) and an observing station of Kochi (wave path length of 770 km), and a much longer period (of five years) than before, is considered. This subionospheric LF propagation can be called "an integrated measurement" in the sense that any earthquakes in the LF sensitive area just around the great-circle path can influence the observed LF signals, so that we define the "effective magnitude" (Meff) by integrating the total energy from different earthquakes in the sensitive area on a current day and by converting it back into magnitude. A superimposed epoch analysis for the effective magnitude greater than 6.0 has yielded that the ionosphere is definitely disturbed in terms of both amplitude and dispersion, and that these perturbations tend to take place prior to an earthquake. The statistical z-test has also been performed, which has indicated that the amplitude is definitely depleted 2?6 days before the earthquake day and also that the dispersion is very much enhanced during the same period. This statistical study has given strong support to the existence of seismo-ionospheric perturbations for high seismic activity.

Possible seismo-ionosphere perturbations revealed by VLF signals collected on ground and on a satellite

Article

Full-text available

Oct 2007

The results of the monitoring of three VLF/LF signals collected in Petropavlovsk station (Kamchatka, Russia) and one VLF signal collected on board of the DEMETER French satellite are presented. Two periods of the seismic activity occurred in the Japan-Kamchatka area during November–December 2004 and July–September 2005 were investigated and the earthquakes with M=6.0 in the Japan-Kamchatka area, located inside one or more of the third Fresnel zones of the three radio paths were considered. The ground data were analysed using residual signal of phase dP or of amplitude dA , defined as the difference between the signal and the average of few quiet days (±5 days) immediately preceding or following the current day. Also the satellite data were processed by a method based on the difference between the real signal and the reference one, but in order to obtain this last signal it was necessary to construct previously a model of the signal distribution over the selected area. The method consists: (a) in averaging all the data available in the considered region over a period characterized by low level seismicity, regardless of the global disturbances, in particular, of the magnetic activity; (b) in computing a polynomial expression for the surface as a function of the longitude and the latitude. The model well describes the real data in condition of their completeness and in absence of magnetic storms or seismic forcing. In the quoted periods of seismic activity clear anomalies both in the ground and in satellite data were revealed. The influence of the geomagnetic activity cannot to be excluded, but the seismic forcing seems more probable.

On the statistical correlation between the ionospheric perturbations as detected by subionospheric VLF/LF propagation anomalies and earthquakes

Article

Full-text available

Jul 2008

Relatively long-period (4 years) data on different propagation paths by means of Japanese-Pacific VLF/LF network observation, are used to obtain further statistical significance on the correlation of ionospheric perturbations as revealed by VLF/LF propagation anomalies with earthquakes. Earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6.0, taken place only within the fifth Fresnel zone of each great-circle path are selected for the correlation study. It is finally found based on the superimposed epoch analysis that the nighttime trend (average amplitude) exhibits a significant decrease exceeding 2σ (σ: standard deviation) several days before the earthquake and the nighttime fluctuation exceeds the corresponding 2σ again several days before the earthquake when the earthquake depth is smaller than 30 km (shallow earthquakes). However, when we treat all earthquakes including deep earthquakes, the trend shows a significant decrease (just approaching 2σ line), and the nighttime fluctuation shows a less significant broad enhancement before the EQ.

Ground-Water Radon Anomaly Before the Kobe Earthquake in Japan

Article

Full-text available

Aug 1995

Radon concentration in ground water increased for several months before the 1995 southern Hyogo Prefecture (Kobe) earthquake on 17 January 1995. From late October 1994, the beginning of the observation, to the end of December 1994, radon concentration increased about fourfold. On 8 January, 9 days before the earthquake, the radon concentration reached a peak of more than 10 times that at the beginning of the observation, before starting to decrease. These radon changes are likely to be precursory phenomena of the disastrous earthquake.

Earthquakes and Earthquake Prediction

Chapter

Dec 1976
Dev Geotech Eng

Unusual spawning behavior of the horseshoe crab (Tachypleus gigas, Muller) after the Tsunami along Orissa Coast, India

Article

Jan 2009

Amphibians as harbingers of decay

Article

Jun 1990

Low‐frequency magnetic field measurements near the epicenter of the M s 7.1 Loma Prieta Earthquake

Article

Aug 1990

The authors report the results of measurements of low frequency magnetic noise by two independent monitoring systems prior to the occurrence of the M{sub s} 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of 17 October 1989. Their measurements cover 25 narrow frequency bands in the more than six-decade frequency range 0.01 Hz-32 kHz, with a time resolution varying from a half hour in the ULF range (0.01-10 Hz) to one second in the ELF/VLF range (10 Hz-32 kHz). The ULF system is located near Corralitos, about 7 km from the epicenter. The ELF/VLF system is located on the Stanford campus, about 52 km from the epicenter. Analysis of the ELF/VLF system is located on the Stanford campus, about 52 km from the epicenter. Analysis of the ELF/VLF data has revealed no precursor activity that they can identify at this time. However, the ULF data have some distinctive and anomalous features. First, a narrow-band signal appeared in the range 0.05-0.2 Hz around September 12 and persisted until the appearance of the second anomalous feature, which consisted of a substantial increase in the noise background starting on 5 October and covering almost the entire frequency range of the ULF system. Third, there was an anomalous dip in the noise background in the range 0.2-5 Hz, starting one day ahead of the earthquake. Finally, and perhaps most compelling, there was an increase to an exceptionally high level of activity in the range 0.01-0.5 Hz starting approximately three hours before the earthquake. There do not appear to have been any magnetic field fluctuations originating in the upper atmosphere that can account for this increase. Further, while the systems are sensitive to motion, seismic measurements indicate that there were no significant shocks preceding the quake. Thus, the various anomalous features in the data, and in particular the large-amplitude increase in activity starting three hours before the quake, may have been magnetic precursors.

Radon content of groundwater as an earthquake precursor: Evaluation of worldwide data and physical basis

Article

Oct 1981

Egill Hauksson

The properties of a worldwide data set of 91 radon anomalies (the frequency of occurrence, the precursor time interval, and the distribution of peak amplitudes) are correlated with earthquake data such as the respective magnitude and epicentral distance. These anomalies were reported as precursors to earthquakes in the US, USSR, China, Japan, and Iceland. Although the data set is incomplete and limited by experimental deficiencies, several consistent patterns emerge. Radon anomalies from different tectonic regions show similar patterns. The radon anomalies occur at greater epicentral distances for earthquakes of the larger magnitude. Anomalies preceding large earthquakes (M= or >6) are frequently observed at a distance of 100 to 500km. These distances are larger than several times the rupture dimensions of the future earthquakes. The time from the onset of an anomaly to the time of the earthquake (the precursor time) increases with magnitude but decreases with distance between epicenter and radon station. In addition, radon anomalies are observed more frequently prior to large earthquakes than prior to small ones, indicating that the preparation zone increases in size as magnitude increases.-Author

Unusual Animal Behavior before Earthquakes: A Review of Possible Sensory Mechanisms

Article

Jan 1981

To determine whether reports of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes are plausible, we have compared these reports with recent laboratory studies of animal sensory thresholds. Our major conclusion is that some animals are much more capable than humans of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes. These geophysical stimuli are seismic or acoustic waves at low frequency (below 50Hz), electric field changes, and olfactory stimuli. We find no evidence that magnetic field precursors or precursory high-frequency (above 10kHz) sounds are the cause of unusual animal behavior before earthquakes. Knowledge of animal sensory capabilities may suggest an instrumental strategy for detecting earthquake precursors.-Authors Univ of Texas at Austin, Marine Sci Inst, Galveston, Texas 77550, USA.

Competitive mate searching in male Common Toads Bufo bufo

Article

Nov 1979

The reproductive behaviour of a population of individually marked toads Bufo bufo was studied at a pond where males outnumbered females by between four and five to one. There was intense competition between the males for mates and only 20·5 % of them bred successfully. Of the successful males, 38·5 % got mates by fighting and displacing other males from the backs of females (takeovers). Larger males enjoyed greater reproductive success because they were stronger and better able to achieve takeovers. When competing for females, some males searched at the spawn site while others searched away from spawn. The numbers searching in the two areas can be predicted by a model which assumes that unpaired males distribute themselves so that there is a spatial ESS, where individuals have equal expectations of finding a female both at and away from the spawning ground.

True navigation by an amphibian

Article

Dec 1995

Ionospheric Detection of Gravity Waves Induced by Tsunamis

Article

Mar 2005

Tsunami waves propagating across long distances in the open-ocean can induce atmospheric gravity waves by dynamic coupling at the surface. In the period range 10 to 20 minutes, both have very similar horizontal velocities, while the gravity wave propagates obliquely upward with a vertical velocity of the order of 50 m s-1, and reaches the ionosphere after a few hours. We use ionospheric sounding technique from Global Positioning System to image a perturbation possibly associated with a tsunami-gravity wave. The tsunami was produced after the Mw= 8.2 earthquake in Peru on 2001 June 23, and it reached the coast of Japan some 22 hours later. We used data from the GEONET network in Japan to image small-scale perturbations of the Total Electron Content above Japan and up to 400 km off shore. We observed a short-scale ionospheric perturbation that presents the expected characteristics of a coupled tsunami-gravity wave. This first detection of the gravity wave induced by a tsunami opens new opportunities for the application of ionospheric imaging to offshore detection of tsunamis.

Current Research in Earthquake Prediction I

Article

Jan 1981

Rikitake

Recent developments of various disciplines of earthquake prediction are outlined. Earthquake prediction programs in Japan, China, USA and USSR are described.

Anomalous variations of the geomagnetic field in East Fergana — magnetic precursor of the May earthquake with M= 7.0 (1978 November 2)

Article

Feb 2010
GEOPHYS J INT

A secular variation anomaly has been discovered at the north-east part of the Fergana vdey by repeated measurements every year or less. The change of total field ΔF at the ‘magnetic epicentre’ was 9 nT in 1977 and 16 nT in 1978 relative to the level of 1973. In 1977 an anomalous region was recognized, where according to the data from 25 observation points ΔF increased in the northern part up to 5.2 nT, and decreased by 4.7nTin the southern part according to a further 22 points. Permanent observations were begun at the epicentre in 1978 October. We normally observed variations of ΔF differences with magnitude ± 2–3 nT, which were not correlated with worldwide magnetic activity. Anomalous variations appeared on October 26 and rose to a maximum value of + 23 nT on October 30. The decrease of this anomalous field began on October 31. This made it possible to predict a potential earthquake. The Alay earthquake with M= 7.0 occurred on November 2 six hours after the prediction was issued; ΔF then returned to the initial level. Thus, using the geomagnetic field variations in the Fergana region, geophysicists were able to predict the moment of a strong earthquake.

Earthquake Prediction by Animals: Evolution and Sensory Perception

Article

May 2000
B SEISMOL SOC AM

Joseph L. Kirschvink

Animals living within seismically active regions are subjected episod-ically to intense ground shaking that can kill individuals through burrow collapse, egg destruction, and tsunami action. Although anecdotal and retrospective reports of animal behavior suggest that although many organisms may be able to detect an impending seismic event, no plausible scenario has been presented yet through which accounts for the evolution of such behaviors. The evolutionary mechanism of ex-aptation can do this in a two-step process. The first step is to evolve a vibration-triggered early warning response which would act in the short time interval between the arrival of P and S waves. Anecdotal evidence suggests this response already exists. Then if precursory stimuli also exist, similar evolutionary processes can link an animal's perception of these stimuli to its P-wave triggered response, yielding an earthquake predictive behavior. A population-genetic model indicates that such a seismic-escape response system can be maintained against random mutations as a result of episodic selection that operates with time scales comparable to that of strong seismic events. Hence, additional understanding of possible earthquake precursors that are presently outside the realm of seismology might be gleaned from the study of animal behavior, sensory physiology, and genetics. A brief review of possible seismic precursors suggests that tilt, hygroreception (humidity), electric, and mag-netic sensory systems in animals could be linked into a seismic escape behavioral system. Several testable predictions of this analysis are discussed, and it is recom-mended that additional magnetic, electrical, tilt, and hygro-sensors be incorporated into dense monitoring networks in seismically active regions.

ULF magnetic field measurements near the epicenter of the Ms 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake

Article

Aug 1991
PHYS EARTH PLANET IN

Anomalous measurements of the ultra-low frequency (ULF) magnetic field fluctuations prior to the magnitude 7.1 Loma Prieta earthquake of October 17, 1989, have been studied. For the past few years we have been monitoring fluctuations of the magnetic field of the Earth in the ULF range at Corralitos, California; our instruments were located 7 km from the epicenter of the earthquake. We have observed four anomalies in our data which may turn out to be precursors to the earthquake. First we observe narrowband noise fluctuations centered at 0.1 Hz and estimated to have a bandwidth of 0.00143–0.00167 Hz, i.e. a Q value of 60–70. The narrowband fluctuations appear to have a maximum equivalent amplitude of over 1400 pT/√Hz which is roughly 31 dB higher than the typical quiet average amplitude background levels. These fluctuations begin around September 12 and last until October 5. Next we observe the appearance of additive wideband noise fluctuations beginning around October 5 and continuing until the occurrence of the earthquake. These wideband fluctuations, which cover almost the entire 0.01–10 Hz frequency range of the system, have an average amplitude that is approximately 19 dB larger than typical levels in the 0.01–0.02 Hz band. Thirdly, we observe an atypical decrease in noise levels in the 0.2–5 Hz band throughout the day prior to the earthquake. The fourth anomaly is a jump in the power of magnetic field fluctuations, mostly in the 0.01–0.5 Hz band, in the three hours preceding the earthquake. This activity reached its highest level in the lowest 0.01–0.02 Hz band, and had a magnitude of roughly 60000 pT/√Hz, which is about 40 dB larger than typical background noise levels in the band.

Penetration of an electrostatic field from the lithosphere into the ionosphere and its effect on the D-region before earthquakes

Article

Mar 2003
J ATMOS SOL-TERR PHY

The penetration of an electrostatic field, from a source located in the lithosphere into the ionosphere is investigated. The electrostatic problem is solved numerically for a medium with an inhomogeneous anisotropic conductivity coupled to an “effective upper boundary condition”. The results show that the electric field in the ionosphere D-layer can effectively change the parameters of the lower ionosphere. The kinetics in the D-region are considered along with calculations of the atmospheric conductivity at an altitude of . It is concluded that (i) the atmospheric conductivity at can change by 30–70% as a result of electrostatic perturbations, created before the onset of earthquakes, and (ii) the penetration of an electrostatic field from the lithosphere into the ionosphere above is much better at night-time than during the day.

The lunar cycle: a cue for amphibian reproductive phenology?

Article

Aug 2009

Lunar cycles give rise to cues that can be recognized by animals, including changes in light intensity, geomagnetism and gravity. Many environmental variables affect reproductive timing in amphibians and we tested the hypothesis that lunar cycles provide one of the cues for amphibian breeding phenology. For several species of anurans, the number of individuals arriving, amplexed or spawning at breeding sites in Italy and the U.K. were recorded each day over several breeding seasons. Data on various aspects of reproductive phenology were also collated from the published literature, for several anuran and urodele species. Large arrival, amplexus and spawning events were more frequent around the full moon than the new moon in anurans, although the date that the first spawn was observed showed no lunar periodicity. Anurans could be responding directly to lunar light, or could have a lunar-synchronized endogenous cycle. First sightings and peak arrivals of urodeles occurred more frequently around new and full moons, but less frequently during the third quarter of the lunar cycle, while departure dates did not show lunar periodicity. Newts could be using gravitational and/or geomagnetic changes related to the lunar cycle to time their arrivals. Synchronization of reproduction in this way may function to maximize spawning success by ensuring the temporal and spatial proximity of breeding adults, or by reducing predation on individuals. Few studies of amphibian breeding phenology consider lunar phase and our results have important implications for the prediction of amphibian mass movements and conservation strategies

Amphibians and reptiles

Article

A. Stumpel

Uranium groundwater anomalies and L'Aquila earthquake, 6th April 2009 (Italy)

Article

Sep 2009

Monitoring of chemical and physical groundwater parameters has been carried out worldwide in seismogenic areas with the aim to test possible correlations between their spatial and temporal variations and strain processes. Uranium (U) groundwater anomalies were observed during the preparation phases of the recent L'Aquila earthquake of 6th April 2009 in the cataclastic rocks near the overthrust fault crossing the deep underground Gran Sasso National Laboratory. The results suggest that U may be used as a potential strain indicator of geodynamic processes occurring before the seismic swarm and the main earthquake shock. Moreover, this justifies the different radon patterns before and after the main shock: the radon releases during and after the earthquake are much than more during the preparatory period because the process does not include only the microfracturing induced by stress-strain activation, but also radon increases accompanying groundwater U anomalies.

Behavioral Change Related to Wenchuan Devastating Earthquake in Mice

Article

Dec 2009
BIOELECTROMAGNETICS

It has been suggested that some animals are much more capable of perceiving certain kinds of geophysical stimuli which may precede earthquakes than humans, but the anecdotal phenomena or stories about unusual animal behaviors prior to an earthquake should be interpreted with objective data. During the Wenchuan magnitude 8.0 earthquake that happened in Wenchuan county (31.0 degrees north latitude, 103.4 degrees east longitude) of Sichuan province, China, on May 12, 2008, eight mice were monitored for locomotor activity and circadian rhythm in constant darkness with temperature 22-24 degrees C and humidity 55-65% for 38 days. The ongoing monitoring of locomotor activity of mice in our laboratory made it possible to design a posteriori study investigating whether the earthquake was associated with any change in animal behavior. Based on analyzing the recorded data with single cosinor, we found that the locomotor activity dramatically decreased in six of these eight mice on day 3 before the earthquake, and the circadian rhythm of their locomotor activity was no longer detected. The behavioral change lasted for 6 days before the locomotor activity returned to its original state. Analyses of concurrent geomagnetic data showed a higher total intensity during the span when the circadian rhythm in locomotor activity weakened. These results indicated that the behaviors, including circadian rhythm and activity, in these mice indeed changed prior to the earthquake, and the behavioral change might be associated with a change of geomagnetic intensity.

Earthquake Prediction

Article

Feb 1991
ANNU REV EARTH PL SC

D. L. Turcotte

The empirical approach relies on a variety of observations, ranging from patterns of seismicity and measurements of strain and electromagnetic fluctuations to reports of anomalous animal behavior. A brief discussion of the current status of the empirical effort is given here, but a broader approach is considered in the remainder of this review. Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment provides a quantitative basis for estimating seismic risk. The concept of "seismic gaps' has been successful in locating high-risk areas for earthquakes. It is also possible to obtain statistics on larger events from the regional statistics on smaller events. Finally, the implications of a "dynamical systems' approach to earthquake prediction is discussed. The concepts of fractals and chaos are directly applicable to distributed seismicity. -from Author

Magnetic compass orientation in the Eastern red-spotted newt (Notophthalmus viridescens)

Article

Feb 1986

John Phillips

Laboratory tests were carried out to examine the orientation behavior of adult Eastern red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) to earth-strength magnetic fields. Groups of 30 to 40 newts were housed in water-filled, all-glass aquaria with an artificial shoreline at one end. The aquaria were located in a greenhouse or outdoors adjacent to the laboratory building, and aligned on either the magnetic north-south or east-west axis. Tests were carried out in an enclosed indoor arena. Newts were tested in four horizontal alignments of the magnetic field: the ambient magnetic field (magnetic north at North) and three altered fields (magnetic north rotated to East, South or West). Data were analyzed after pooling the magnetic bearings from all four conditions in such a way as to retain the component of the newts' orientation that was a consistent response to the magnetic field. Elevation of training tank water temperature was used to increase the newts' motivation to orient in the direction of shore. Newts exposed to a training tank water temperature of 33-34 degrees C just prior to testing exhibited consistent unimodal magnetic compass orientation. The direction of orientation was altered predictably by changing training tank alignment and location relative to the laboratory building. The results provide the first evidence of a strong, replicable magnetic compass response in a terrestrial vertebrate under controlled laboratory conditions. Further, the present study demonstrates that the Eastern newt is able to learn a directional response relative to the earth's magnetic field.

Two Magnetoreception Pathways in a Migratory Salamander

Article

Sep 1986

John Phillips

Male eastern red-spotted newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) under controlled laboratory conditions exhibit unimodal magnetic compass orientation either in a trained compass direction or in the direction of their home pond. If the vertical component of the magnetic field is inverted, newts exhibiting the simple-compass response undergo a 180 degree reversal in orientation, whereas newts orienting in the home direction are unaffected by this treatment. These results indicate that newts use an axial compass mechanism for simple-compass orientation similar to that found in migrating birds. However, a distinct magnetoreception pathway with polar response properties is involved in homing and is possibly linked in some way to the navigational map.

Mouse Circadian Rhythm before the Kobe Earthquake in 1995

Article

May 2003

Mouse circadian diagrams recorded at Osaka University showed unusual mouse behavior before the Kobe earthquake on January 17th, 1995. The locomotive activities on January 16th showed drastic increases, several times above the standard deviation, during both sleep and active periods, indicating that mice perceived of some preseismic signals.

Shaken, not stirred: A serendipitous study of ants and earthquakes

Article

Sep 2005

There is anecdotal evidence for profound behavioral changes prior to and during earthquakes in many organisms, including arthropods such as ants. Behavioral or physiological analysis has often, in light of these reports, been proposed as a means of earthquake prediction. We report here a serendipitous study of the effect of the powerful Landers earthquake in the Mojave Desert, USA (Richter magnitude 7.4) on ant trail dynamics and aerobic catabolism in the desert harvester ant Messor pergandei. We monitored trail traffic rates to and from the colony, trail speed, worker mass distributions, rates of aerobic catabolism and temperature at ant height before and during the earthquake, and for 3 days after the earthquake. Contrary to anecdotal reports of earthquake effects on ant behavior, the Landers earthquake had no effect on any measured aspect of the physiology or behavior of M. pergandei. We conclude that anecdotal accounts of the effects of earthquakes or their precursors on insect behavior should be interpreted with caution.

Predicting the unpredictable; evidence of pre-seismic anticipatory behaviour in the common toad

Abstract

No full-text available