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Un'analisi quantitativa delle politiche di rientro dal disavanzo pubblico in Italia

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Abstract

The governments of advanced countries have faced the economic crisis by means of measures that considerably increase their budget deficits. Now they have to absorb these increases, but at the same time supporting recovery. To solve this problem, two different types of intervention have been hypothesized. The first consists of a set of tightening measures devoted to quickly reducing deficit. The second fosters measures devoted to supporting aggregate demand, postponing the reduction of budget deficit to the time when economic activity will grow again. Predictable results of the two hypotheses are determined through an econometric model, changed by modifications simulating, separately, the measures hypothesized in each intervention.

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... In secondo luogo, meritano un certo scetticismo le richieste di "riforme di struttura", generalmente dirette a ridurre il potere contrattuale dei lavoratori o a modificare la distribuzione del reddito a sfavore dei ceti meno abbienti (le riforme che avrebbero effetti diversi, quali quelle dirette a garantire una maggiore concorrenza tra notai, medici, avvocati, tassisti o distribuzione commerciale sono state prontamente accantonate…). Infine, nella situazione attuale in cui gli investimenti sono scoraggiati da un basso grado di utilizzo della capacità produttiva, gli incentivi agli investimenti possono avere effetti molto limitati; sarebbe assai più utile un rilancio dei consumi privati basato su una redistribuzione del reddito verso i ceti meno abbienti, necessariamente caratterizzati da una maggiore propensione al consumo (Carlucci, 2011). Nell'ambito delle misure che incidono direttamente sulle entrate e sulle spese pubbliche, brilla su tutto la rinuncia al ricorso a una qualsiasi forma di imposta patrimoniale, o comunque di un inasprimento delle imposte sulle rendite, finanziarie e reali. ...
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The article synthesises the large and extending literature on the financial and economic crisis from a Post-Keynesian point of view. The authors take on the position that the international and internal real imbalances are serious and worrying, but yet they are not the cause of the crisis or of its tremendous dimension. The flawed and insufficient regulation of finance is the prime cause of the crisis, as well as it is one of the main hindrances to expansionary macroeconomic policies that may less painfully drive developed countries out of the crisis. It then examines the most recent developments in the euro-area, claiming that we are not facing a sovereign debt crisis but rather a speculative attack on the euro. Finally, the article considers specifically the situation of Italy, currently at the hearth of such an attack, and suggests that the country was already facing critical developments before the 2007/2008 crisis. Thus, the policy measures so far suggested to exit the current stressful situation, in so far as they ignore this fact, seriously run the risk of proving insufficient or altogether noxious.
Article
Full-text available
The article synthesizes the large and extending literature on the financial and economic crisis from a Post-Keynesian point of view. The authors take on the position that the international and internal real imbalances are serious and worrying, but yet they are not the cause of the crisis or of its tremendous dimension. The flawed and insufficient regulation of finance is the prime cause of the crisis, as well as it is one of the main hindrances to expansionary macroeconomic policies that may less painfully drive developed countries out of the crisis. It then examines the most recent developments in the euro-area, claiming that we are not facing a sovereign debt crisis but rather a speculative attack on the euro. Finally, the article considers specifically the situation of Italy, currently at the hearth of such an attack, and suggests that the country was already facing critical developments before the 2007/2008 crisis. Thus, the policy measures so far suggested to exit the current stressful situation, in so far as they ignore this fact, seriously run the risk of proving insufficient or altogether noxious.
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