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Abstract

State and local government tax revenues dropped steeply following the most severe housing market contraction since the Great Depression. We identify five main channels through which the housing market affects state and local tax revenues: property tax revenues, transfer tax revenues, sales tax revenues (including a direct effect through construction materials and an indirect effect through the link between housing wealth and consumption), and personal income tax revenues. We find that property tax revenues do not tend to decrease following house price declines. We conclude that the resilience of property tax receipts is due to significant lags between market values and assessed values of housing and the tendency of policy makers to offset declines in the tax base with higher tax rates. The other four channels have had a relatively modest effect on state tax revenues. We calculate that these channels jointly reduced tax revenues by $22Â billion from 2006 to 2009, which is about 3% of total state own-source revenues in 2006. We conclude that the recent contraction in state and local tax revenues has been driven primarily by the general economic recession, rather than the housing market per-se.

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... Most empirical studies quantifying the effects of the financial crisis on poverty mainly use a single equation model and assume that crises directly affect poverty (Datt & Hoogeveen, 2003;Imai et al., 2013;Nikoloski, 2011;Rewilak, 2018). They use government spending as a covariate without considering that crisis itself may have negative effects on government spending (Lutz et al., 2011;Mahdavi, 2004), that may increase poverty, at least in the short run, when the government is unable to adjust its budget. Thus, crisis may, directly and indirectly, affect poverty through reductions in government spending. ...
... These declines in government spending are more pronounced for tax-based spending. Lutz et al. (2011) show that state and local government tax revenues reduced during the financial crisis of 2008 due to low property tax and income tax collections. The low revenue significantly reduced government spending in the short run. ...
... Taxes serve as a primary source of governmental revenue and play a crucial function in providing financial support for development initiatives and demonstrating economic self-sufficiency (Belhadi et al., 2022). Within the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN), it is evident that taxation constitutes a significant portion of the State's income (Lutz et al., 2011). Lundstøl's (2022) tax revenue refers to the income acquired by the government via the collection of taxes from individuals. ...
... State revenue from taxes is a vital component in financing development and demonstrating economic independence (Belhadi et al., 2022). Taxes are recognized as one of the components of state revenue in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) (Lutz et al., 2011). According to Lundstøl (2022), tax revenue is the money the government receives from taxation of citizens. ...
Article
This research tries to analyze the explicit and implicit impact of the smooth supply chain and fairness of the tax system on corporate taxpayer compliance and its implications for state tax revenues. This research uses quantitative methods, using random sampling techniques, and obtained a sample of 100 respondents consisting of various MSMEs registered with the Ministry of Cooperatives and SMEs in 2023 who are taxpayers in South Jakarta City, DKI Jakarta Province, Indonesia. The data obtained from the surveys was utilized in Structural Equation Modelling with Partial Least Squares (SEM-PLS) for additional analysis. Research results and data analysis show that tax system equity has a direct and significant impact on corporate taxpayer compliance; tax system fairness directly has no and minimal impact on state tax revenues; and corporate taxpayer compliance directly and significantly impacts state tax revenues. A smooth supply chain has a direct and substantial impact on corporate taxpayer compliance. Furthermore, a smooth supply chain has a direct and substantial influence on state tax collections. A seamless supply chain and state tax revenues are largely mediated by corporate taxpayer compliance, which has a substantial impact on both. Furthermore, the relationship between the fairness of the tax system and state tax collections in MSMEs in South Jakarta City is totally mediated by corporate taxpayer compliance.
... From the municipal point of view, the lack of culmination of an urban development always brings about a reduction on the expected long-term incomes, although of different intensity in each tribute according to its nature. For example, if lots remain vacant, there is a reduction in property tax collection (Lutz et al. 2011), since the base of this tax is the floor area and its value (Chernick et al. 2011). In this case, the level of occupation of the dwellings is not relevant. ...
... For example, abandoned urban zones have other undesired effects such as, among others, the increase in public insecurity (Wilcox et al. 2004), social segregation (Haase et al. 2014) or the loss of scenic and environmental attractiveness (Sousa and Soares 2018). Thus, although this growing problem is encouraging resilient proposals such as the conversion of vacant lots into green areas, sports or cultural spaces (Blanco et al. 2009;Johnson et al. 2014), the most common response from Public Administrations in the short term is a combination of tax rates increase (Lutz et al. 2011) with the total or partial reduction of the level of public services (Popper and Popper 2002), which in the long term ends up affecting the global competitiveness of the city (Chernick et al. 2011) and its social equity, since social services end up being more affected than others like public safety (Skidmore and Scorsone 2011). ...
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The economic impact of each new residential development on the public budget can be very different than expected when, due to the real estate speculation, a poor demand forecast or to unexpected reasons, the dwellings are not built and occupied by their final users within the planned term. To quantify to what extent public costs and revenues are affected in unfinished developments, the economic balance of the public services operation when vacant lots, empty dwellings and dwellings with temporary occupancy are persistent in the long term has been simulated in three theoretical developments under the tax burden and operating cost of a sample of Spanish municipalities. Regardless of the local particularities, the results obtained show a clear stress to public finances when dwellings are not built, and less robust statistical results when said dwellings are built but remain empty or are occupied only temporarily. This leads to a reflection on whether the current tax system, based more on the amount of real estate properties than on their effective use, is the most appropriate for the promotion of sustainable urban patterns.
... Local policymakers counter the decline in property tax revenues by raising actual tax rates while maintaining the tax base unchanged. When house prices go higher, policymakers tend to lower effective tax rates to balance the increased property tax revenues, thus ensuring fiscal stability (Goodman 2018;Lutz et al. 2011). AEs also possess larger rental markets, where houses serve more as necessities than investments. ...
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... On the one hand, because property taxes have been declining over time and are constrained by tax and expenditure limits, property tax dependence may lead to more stress (Pagano & Johnston, 2000;Bartle, Kriz, & Morozov, 2011). On the other hand, the property tax is a stable source of revenue (Lutz, Molloy, & Shan, 2011) that can be a source of resilience (Kim, 2017). ...
Article
Fiscal stress among local governments in the US has become a key concern since the 2008 Recession. Fiscal stress is fueled by structural pressures from demography, economy, and state policy. How do these pressures shape perceptions of fiscal stress? We conducted a national survey in 2017 of 2,064 US local governments. Our regression models measure the factors that differentiate perceptions of fiscal stress among local government leaders. We find governments with professional managers perceive higher stress. These perceptual measures reflect not only higher objective financial measures, such as debt per capita, but also structural factors like aging infrastructure, unemployment, education levels, and state policy. Professional managers take a broader view of fiscal stress – not just short-term financial concerns, but longer-term structural shifts in demography, economy, and state policy. Greater autonomy allows US local governments to have a more balanced view on fiscal stress and, by practicing pragmatic municipalism, to hold back the tides of austerity.
... Lutz (2008) andCornia and Walters (2006) focus on property taxes.Alm et al. (2011),Doerner and Ihlanfeldt (2011),Lutz et al. (2011), andVlaicu andWhalley (2011) examine fiscal impacts more broadly. ...
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The effects of rules constraining government should vary with the degree to which citizens are informed and able to hold government accountable. We test this insight by applying it to property taxation in a booming market under a homeowner assessment limit: Florida's municipalities in 2000-06. Educational attainment is our proxy for the share of citizens who are informed and politically efficacious. Property taxes are more responsive to changes in the tax price facing households, and thus more consistent with the preferences of rational households, in more educated municipalities. By restraining increases in residential taxable value relative to total taxable value the assessment limit reduced tax prices, undermining its ability to restrain spending and distorting spending decisions. Uninformed citizens may remain unaware of, and so not oppose, increases in property tax revenues resulting from increases in aggregate taxable values, especially when homeowners are insulated by an assessment limit. Our finding that property taxes are more responsive to changes in taxable value in less educated municipalities is consistent with this reasoning. Our results are robust to alternative ways of treating outliers, alternative specifications, and falsification tests.
... If property price deflation occurs, municipalities with a large share of properties at risk of flooding and that are also heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to fiscal losses. While the collapse of housing prices during the Great Recession had negligible impacts on local government property tax revenues 36,37 , this non-effect has been attributed to time lags between market values and assessed values, coupled with the relatively rapid rebound in housing prices following the crash 38 . In contrast, declines in property values due to climate risk are unlikely to be temporary 39 , particularly for properties affected by sea-level rise 40 . ...
Article
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Climate change impacts threaten the stability of the US housing market. In response to growing concerns that increasing costs of flooding are not fully captured in property values, we quantify the magnitude of unpriced flood risk in the housing market by comparing the empirical and economically efficient prices for properties at risk. We find that residential properties exposed to flood risk are overvalued by US121–US237 billion, depending on the discount rate. In general, highly overvalued properties are concentrated in counties along the coast with no flood risk disclosure laws and where there is less concern about climate change. Low-income households are at greater risk of losing home equity from price deflation, and municipalities that are heavily reliant on property taxes for revenue are vulnerable to budgetary shortfalls. The consequences of these financial risks will depend on policy choices that influence who bears the costs of climate change.
... e real estate tax is the vital means and tool for government to make macroeconomic adjustments and its functions can be summarized into three aspects: increasing the local government revenue, stabilizing housing market price, and reallocating the income [13][14][15]. e second function, which related to the housing price, is the vital means to adjust housing market price and has attracted much attentions in the previous literature [16]. ...
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Housing market occupies a large part of the wealth of the whole society in most countries, and real estate tax plays an important role for the government to maintain sustainable development for the economy. As consumption being a major issue nowadays, in this paper, we want to find out (1) whether real estate taxes affect the house price in China and whether the affects vary among different tax types? (2) whether there exists wealth effect in China housing market? That is, whether the change in house wealth (price) affects the consumption? (3) whether and how do real estate taxes affect wealth effect? We set up the empirical model by using the GMM method on panel data from 2002 to 2016 to explore the relations among real estate tax, housing price, and wealth effect. We considered the influence of four different types of real estate tax on the housing price and found the results are mixed. Besides, there is a significantly negative wealth effect on China housing market. Finally, house price plays a mediator role in the effect of the real estate tax on the consumption.
... In the short run the revenue strains were therefore particularly severe in states that rely to a significant degree on sales taxes, and on sales in exposed sectors. On the other hand, as in most recessions, property tax bases are unlikely to contract significantly during the recession itself, because property values are typically reassessed with substantial delays, according to Lutz, Molloy, and Shan (2011). At the Brazilian subnational level, states lost relative participation in the distribution of tax revenues and municipalities affirmed the 7 position obtained in the 1988 constitutional order, according to Tristao (2003). ...
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O objetivo deste estudo é estimar os impactos contrafactuais da pandemia do Covid-19 na arrecadação estadual e taxas de mortalidade das UF do Brasil, considerando a adoção de políticas de lockdown e de isolamento social. Os modelos DiD, indicam que consumo diário de energia elétrica esteve inversamente associado as taxas de mortalidade estaduais. Os resultados ArCo evidenciaram que quanto maior a severidade pandêmica maiores foram os impactos em arrecadação, e quanto maior a taxa de isolamento social menores foram as taxas de mortalidade contrafactuais. Não há evidências significantes da política de lockdown sobre arrecadação ou taxa de mortalidade estadual.
... Prices of residential properties may also influence the financial situation of local government units. When taxes (or fees) related to real estate are collected depending on their value, price fluctuations are significant (Alm et al., 2011;Alm & Leguizamon, 2017;Bronshtein, 2017;Doerner & Ihlanfeldt, 2011;Goodman, 2018;Lutz et al., 2011;Lutz, 2008;Vlaicu & Whalley, 2011). ...
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Using a unique dataset of 4,5 million offers, the housing cycles in 18 Polish provincial capitals were identified between 2000 and 2020 before and after the financial crisis. Differences in the course of the cycles depending on spatial diversity are presented, as well as differences in the strength of decreases and increases in individual phases. The examined housing markets in Poland have experienced significant variability in the extent of their cycles. One complete cycle was found in each of the analysed cities. Its average duration was approximately 12 years. In this cycle, residential prices (in real terms) increased by 88% on average, in the upward phase by 158%, while in the downward phase, they decreased by 27% in the cities under study. A correlation was found that implies that the higher the price rises in the upward period, the higher the price correction ensues in the cycle's downward phase. Moreover, the similarity in fluctuations was present in the metropolitan markets in local housing markets, especially before the financial crisis. Apartment prices continued to grow by 2.9% on average in the real term during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.
... The regional science literature has led the way in assessing the economic impacts of the oil and gas boom (Court et al. 2012;Deller and Schreiber 2012;Weber 2014;Munasib and Rickman 2015;Kelsey et al. 2016;Komarek 2018). Similarly, the field has long been interested in the importance of state and local tax revenues and the policies that influence them (Berney and Larson 1968;Seninger 1982;Lutz et al. 2011). This paper combines the two topics, building to a unique contribution that documents impacts to sector-specific sales tax revenues associated with changes in oil and gas employment and/or production value. ...
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Recent volatility in oil and natural gas markets has led to questions about how local businesses and government revenues might be affected. This paper uses a panel dataset of Oklahoma counties during 2003–2012 to quantify the relationship between changes in oil and natural gas employment and retail spending. One particularly noteworthy contribution is the use of sub-categories of retail sales (to the two-digit Standard Industrial Classification code) to assess whether specific retail sectors are more responsive to changes in oil and gas activity. Our fixed effects panel regression model reveals that variations in mining employment impact aggregate retail expenditures, with an overall elasticity of 0.02. These results are driven by the grocery and furniture sectors, with elasticities of 0.05–0.06, and are even stronger when the analysis is limited to counties considered to be mining-dependent. We also show that spillover effects exist, with the grocery and furniture expenditures highly impacted by mining employment in neighboring counties as well as their own.
... In a 15-year panel study of Florida cities, Doerner and Ihlanfeldt (2011) found that increases in housing prices resulted in a small increase in revenue but that decreases in housing prices did not result in decreased revenues. Cromwell andIhlanfeldt (2015) andLutz et al. (2011) provided additional support for this result noting that the lag between decreases in market value and assessment of taxable value provides time to adjust millage rates to offset the decrease in property value. Pandey (2010) argued that the Great Recession may be considered an "era of cutback management" that includes greater usage of reserve funds, challenges to job security and employee motivation, and more reliance on intergovernmental revenues. ...
Article
Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of the Great Recession on small- to medium-sized municipalities within the states of Georgia and Florida using a newly developed set of quantitative indices. Design/methodology/approach An examination of the methods and strategies utilized by individual cities to maintain public service levels despite distressed revenues is performed. From the data, performance measures are developed and used to evaluate the efficacy of the various strategies used by the cities. Outcomes of Georgia municipalities were compared to similarly sized Florida municipalities to study how underlying differences in tax structures and economies might have affected those outcomes. Findings Georgia and Florida municipalities relied on very different strategies for surviving the recession and its aftermath. Enterprise activities were critically important in both states with transfers to or from governmental activities rationalized in various ways. While Georgia is generally anti-property tax, more than half the Georgia municipalities relied on property tax increases to survive. Municipalities were unable to count on increased intergovernmental revenues during the recession. Finally, even with a tourist activity advantage, Florida municipalities fared only marginally better during and just after the recession, and fared worse four to six years post-recession. Practical implications The measures developed in this study provide a new, customizable methodology for the evaluation of financial condition that does not require in-depth comparisons to peers. Social implications Small- and medium-sized cities, and especially those in rural areas, are worthy of targeted research to better understand their unique problems. Originality/value This research is novel in utilizing a fiscal condition methodology that can be applied to a single municipality and does not require comparisons to peers for validity. However, it represents a very intuitive and customizable tool for making comparisons between municipalities of any size when such comparisons are desired. Additionally, the focus of this study is on small- to medium-sized municipalities which generally do not receive as much research attention as larger cities.
... Reinforcing loop R2 demonstrates the interacting causal power of rural deprivation: reduced workforce productivity decreases the desirability of doing business in rural Black American communities for employers. This in turn leads to fewer employment opportunities and more lost wages, more limited rural community resources (e.g., lower local tax revenues), and fewer community health resources (e.g., underfunded clinics)the accumulation of which can adversely impact rural Black American community metabolic health over time (e.g., reduced access to healthcare) (Alavinia et al. 2009;Auchincloss et al. 2008;Hartley 2004;Lutz et al. 2011;Phillips and McLeroy 2004). This feedback loop represents yet another Bvicious cycle,^which together with the racial discrimination reinforcing loop perpetuates the adverse metabolic health consequences of interdependent structural racism and area deprivation in rural Black American communities. ...
Article
Chronic discrimination and associated socioeconomic inequalities have shaped the health and well-being of Black Americans. As a consequence of the intersection of these factors with rural deprivation, rural Black Americans live and work in particularly pathogenic environments that generate disproportionate and interacting chronic comorbidities (syndemics) compared to their White and/or urban counterparts. Traditional prevention research has been unable to fully capture the underlying complexity of rural minority health and has generated mostly low-leverage interventions that have failed to reverse adverse metabolic outcomes among rural Black Americans. In contrast, novel research approaches-such as system dynamics modeling-that seek to understand holistic system structure and determine complex health outcomes over time provide a robust framework to develop a more accurate understanding of the key factors contributing to type 2 diabetes. This framework can then be used to establish more efficacious interventions to address disparities among minorities in rural areas. This paper advocates for a unified complex systems epistemology and methodology in advancing rural minority health disparities research. Toward this goal, we (1) provide an overview of rural Black American metabolic health research, (2) introduce a complex systems framework in rural minority health disparities research, and (3) demonstrate how community-based system dynamics modeling and simulation can help us plow new ground in rural minority health disparities research and action. We anticipate that this paper can serve as a catalyst for a long-overdue discourse on the relevance of complex systems approaches in minority health research, with practical benefits for numerous disproportionately burdened communities.
... For instance, with regard to the well-known impact of the Great Depression on the U.S. cities, Lutz, Molloy and Shan (2011) scrutinized how the property tax affected house prices in the U.S. during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Blom-Hansen, Monkerud and Sorensen (2006 attempted to discover if the real estate tax rate in Norway and Denmark, as revenue of local budgets, was determined by the ideology of left-and right-wing parties. ...
Article
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Property tax is a main source of local authority and contributes to nation’s development. Local Government Act 1976 (Act 171) has authorized local authority as the responsible party in levying property tax. Based on pilot study, there is an urgency in conducting property tax reassessment due to the lack of manpower in valuation department. Besides, it was found that the outsource solution by appointing private valuation firm also failed to complete the reassessment within dateline. Hence, this study is conducted to scrutinize the most significant factors that cause failure in completing reassessment work among private valuation firm appointed by local authority. Questionnaires were distributed among local authority within Iskandar region to rank the most important factors that cause the failure. The results shows that workload increase, and time constraint is the most prominent factors that cause failure in completing the reassessment work. This paper is significant for local authority in handling the problem regarding reassessment work among appointed valuation firm.
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We estimate the degree to which local property taxes are capitalized into house prices using administrative data from the Dallas Central Appraisal District (DCAD) from 2014 to 2016. Capitalization rates are measured using a hedonic price regression model. To control for unobservable neighborhood characteristics, we employ a border discontinuity research design, restricting our sample to homes within half-mile blocks of jurisdictions boundaries. With respect to school district taxes, we estimate that more than 70 percent of the increase in the present value of property tax liabilities resulting from a tax increase is capitalized into current house prices. The null hypothesis of full capitalization cannot be rejected. For city taxes, capitalization rates are even larger. We also estimate the willingness to pay for public schools, finding that a one standard deviation increase in test scores results in a roughly four-percent increase in house prices.
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During the Great Recession, national public school per-pupil spending fell by roughly 7 percent and persisted beyond the recovery. The impact of such large and sustained education funding cuts is not well understood. To examine this, first, we document that the recessionary drop in spending coincided with the end of decades-long national growth in both test scores and college-going. Next, we show that this stalled educational progress was particularly pronounced in states that experienced larger recessionary budget cuts for plausibly exogenous reasons. To isolate budget cuts that were unrelated to (i) other ill-effects of the recession or (ii) endogenous state policies, we use states’ historical reliance on state-appropriated funds (which are more sensitive to the business cycle) to fund public schools interacted with the timing of the recession as instruments for reductions in school spending. Cohorts exposed to these spending cuts had lower test scores and lower college-going rates. The spending cuts led to larger test score gaps by income and race. (JEL E32, H52, H75, I21, I28, J15)
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In 2015, eight years after the start of the Great Recession, average per capita revenue in the nation's largest central cities was 7% below pre-recession levels, a decline that in both depth and duration is the most severe in the post-war period. In this paper, we address the role of the housing market in this decline. We analyze the impact of the boom and subsequent collapse in housing prices and the unprecedented surge in mortgage foreclosures on the finances of central cities. To link city finances to housing conditions, we draw on a specially created data base that takes account of the revenues and spending of all the local governments that provide services to city residents. Our regression analysis, which employs data from 2000 through 2014 for 90 large central cities, finds statistically and economically significant effects of both housing price changes and foreclosure rate changes on property tax revenues. We also find that property tax levy limits dampened the fiscal response to the housing bubble and bust. During the housing bubble period, property tax revenues and capital expenditures rose significantly faster in non-levy limit cities than in cities subject to levy limits, but then fell more sharply during the housing bust period. We estimate that the direct effect of the housing bust was responsible for 21% of the decline in the general revenue of large central cities from 2009 to 2011.
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Data from millions of appraisals in 2012-2019 are used to estimate residential land prices, the share of house value attributable to land, and related statistics down to the census-tract level for areas that include the vast majority of U.S. population and single-family housing. The results confirm predictions about land prices from canonical urban models. Over 2012-2019, we show that land prices rose faster than house prices in large metro areas, boosting the land share of house value, while the land share fell in smaller metros. The data are available for download at https://www.fhfa.gov/papers/wp1901.aspx.
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The increase in the importance of countercyclical behavior has expanded the research on fiscal saving behavior to local governments. In particular, the Great Recession has shown that local governments are not immune to economic shocks, spurring interest in local savings behavior. County governments are particularly vulnerable to negative economic shocks, as they rely more on intergovernmental revenues. With a focus on the determinants of fiscal slack, we empirically examined the relationship between tax revenue volatility and unassigned fund balance in 57 California counties over the period of 2004 to 2014. Employing spatial regression models, our empirical analysis revealed that revenue volatility is positively associated with general unassigned fund balance in California counties, and revenue diversification has partially positive effects on the fund balance. We infer that tax revenue volatility threatens the stabilized delivery of local services, which suggests that local governments should look to the factors that potentially affect revenue stability to improve their capacity for financial management. The spillover effects from the findings suggest that spatial effects need to be taken into account in analyzing the determinants of local fiscal slack.
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This paper investigates whether and how property tax limits impact female labor supply during the housing boom and bust. Theory predicts that property tax limits increase non-labor income during the housing boom and decrease non-labor income during the bust periods, leading to opposite effects on labor supply during the boom and bust periods. Exploiting exogenous variation of housing market conditions in the housing boom and bust and geographic changes of property tax limits in the cross-state Combined Statistical Areas, we test the theory and find that property tax limits reduced female labor force participation by 0.7 to 1.4 percentage points during the housing boom (2005-2006) as predicted. In contrast, the impact of property tax limits on female labor force participation during the housing bust (2008-2009) is always positive but not statistically significant in most specifications. These results are consistent with our model and provide new evidence of housing wealth effects in the labor market.
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This paper attempts to investigate the association between local public finance and housing market. We deal with the potential endogeneity problem by utilizing two-stage-least-square (2SLS) model. Our empirical results suggest that (1) the average housing price is positively and significantly associated with local revenue. (2) The average housing price is positively associated with local expenditure, though not significantly. (3) The rise of average housing price is also proven to reduce the local deficit significantly. (4) While the flypaper effect is obvious in Taiwan’s local expenditure, the opportunistic political business cycle theory is not so significant.
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Although municipal budgets fared well on average during the Great Depression, many suffered greatly. In newspapers and trade publications, observers blamed distress in real estate markets as well as the rise in tax delinquency and real debt obligations. This paper uses a sample of large US cities to estimate how those factors influenced municipal revenue and expenditures during the Depression. Results show that city finances were stable when facing the housing market distress that plagued many urban areas in the 1930s. The principal elements of fiscal strain were actually rising delinquency, which was associated with diminished revenue and operating expenditures, and growing real debt obligations, which were associated with reduced capital outlays. Thus local budgets were driven more by the behavior of taxpayers and obligations to city creditors than by the downturn in real estate markets. These findings illuminate municipal governments’ responses to the fiscal strain wrought by the Depression.
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Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore why school districts in the USA made so little use of local sources of non-tax revenues, even when faced with declines in traditional revenue as occurred during the Great Recession? The analysis uses the case of Colorado, where historically districts have made more use of alternative revenues. Design/methodology/approach Data for the analysis are drawn from the NCES’s Common Core of Data with administrative data to create a panel of Colorado school districts. The paper presents estimates of traditional panel models, as well as spatial panel models, that give the correlates of variation in alternative revenue for education. Findings As is true nationally, in Colorado school districts made no increased use of non-tax revenues in fiscal downturns, while the presence of expenditure limits does increase use, though not as might be expected. Revenues from overrides of the limits and alternative local revenues appear to be complements. Further, there is no evidence of spatial relationships for the alternative revenue sources considered. Originality/value This paper uses richer data than has ever been used to explore the determinants of alternative revenues, making it possible to explore relationships others could not. In addition, synthetic cohort analysis is used to generate plausible instrumental variables for passage of an override of an expenditure limitation. Further, no existing analysis of nontraditional revenues considers the possibility that use of those revenues might be spatially correlated.
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I measure the returns to lobbying for US local governments in terms of federal earmarks. Because a local government’s decision to lobby may be endogenous to receiving an earmark, I instrument for lobbying with local housing prices. Since the time period of my analysis covers the Housing Crisis, I argue that the variation in housing prices over this time was largely exogenous to federal earmark distributions. The strong correlation that I find between housing price growth rates and lobbying provides evidence that local governments lobbied to buffer against impending property tax losses. I find no evidence that lobbying is associated with increased earmark awards overall. However, conditional on selection into receiving an earmark, I do find evidence that lobbying served to increase the size of earmark awards.
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This paper examines how local governments adjust their spending in response to a temporary revenue windfall generated by a housing boom. We focus on Spanish local governments because of the intensity of the last housing boom-bust experienced there and the large share of construction-related revenues they obtain. We find that windfall revenues were mostly used to increase expenditures (above all, current). We seek to determine whether this behaviour was due to political myopia (incumbents in contested elections increasing expenditures to convince uninformed voters about their competence) or to extrapolation bias (leading to the overstatement of the persistence of revenue shocks). We find evidence for both mechanisms: the propensity to spend is higher where local incumbents were elected by a narrow vote margin and lower in places with past volatility experience. Finally, we also examine what happens during the bust, and find that governments enjoying large windfalls during the boom had to cut their spending abruptly (above all, capital) and raise taxes. The adjustment during the bust was actually greater in those places that overspent more during the crisis.
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In the book, an attempt was made to catalogue knowledge concerning the importance of research into the dynamics of housing prices for social and economic development. The analysis of the experience of countries with well-developed real estate markets in the aspect of building price indexes was carried out. Based on original databases of asking and transaction prices, price indexes were built, which were then subjected to numerous resistance tests. The aims of these research tasks were as follows: 1) to examine the quality of offers for sale as a source of information about changes in the real estate market, 2) to find out whether the repeat sales method can be used for building price indexes and to critically assess this method in terms of the stability of the obtained results, 3) to analyze hedonic methods and indicate the preferred one in terms of the ratio of the quality of results to how time-consuming and cost-intensive it is to build such indexes, 4) to establish the importance of methods and sources of information for building price indexes in different time horizons, 5) to identify how important it is for the fluctuation of price indexes if the cooperative property right to a flat is not taken into account. In order to perform the research tasks and accomplish the goals scopes of the work were defined. The subject followed the aim of the study and refers to prices in the secondary housing market, encompassing both the property right and cooperative property right to a flat or house. The broad scope concerns the discussion in the general part, being narrowed down to the secondary market of flats located in multi-family and single-family buildings. The time scope covers the years 2000-2015, which is connected to the range of empirical studies carried out. They focused both on actual transactions and on offers of flats for sale. On this basis, we built databases which served as the starting point for further analyses. The study involved transactions and offers in the area of Poznan.
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Although the Great Recession put the US economy into a tailspin, we know little about how the changes in house prices influenced property tax collections. Using local‐level housing data from Zillow® matched to property tax data from 1998 to 2012, two questions are examined. First, the elasticity of property tax revenue with respect to house values is estimated. Second, the timing of this elasticity is determined. The analysis rules out that local policymakers capture the entire increase of house value in property tax revenues but unable to rule out that increases in house values are completely offset by changes in effective property tax rates. Decreases in values have an elasticity between 0.3 and 0.4 and take three years for changes in values to impact property tax revenues. While property tax collections declined, local policymakers adjusted effective millage rates such that revenues did not decline as much as home values.
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Many US municipalities have committed to pay retirement benefits to public sector employees but have not saved enough to fulfill these obligations. This paper studies the determinants of municipal pension funding and its implications for intergenerational redistribution using an overlapping generations model. Under perfect capital markets, pension funding choices are fully capitalized into land prices. This neutrality result fails if agents face a binding downpayment constraint in the land market: old agents prefer a pay-as-you go system, while young agents find a fully funded system optimal. Empirical evidence based on cross-city comparisons of pension liabilities is consistent with these predictions.
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In most states, the property tax departs markedly from the ideal of a low-rate, broad-based tax that treats various types of real property uniformly. Recently, many states have responded to rapidly rising residential property values with new constraints such as assessment caps. This paper will review property tax performance and analyze several arguments relating to alleged deficiencies of the property tax. The analysis suggests that the property tax has performed well by most measures and that it ranks high in terms of both stability and revenue elasticity. The restrictions and constraints imposed on the property tax are likely the result of the pursuit of political objectives by decision makers and not the result of structural problems with the tax itself.
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The speed and severity of the decline in the Irish fiscal position in recent years raises a number of important issues regarding the assessment of fiscal policy within the EU. From a position of relative strength, with large surpluses and a low debt to GDP ratio, the Irish public finances have rapidly deteriorated, culminating in an Excessive Deficit Procedure being launched in early 2009. In hindsight, it is evident that tax revenues were on an unsustainable path in recent years due, in large part, to structural imbalances within the economy, mainly associated with the housing market. The excess growth in the latter culminated in large and transitory tax revenue windfalls, which ultimately proved unsustainable. These windfalls contributed to large general government and cyclically adjusted budget surpluses. This paper seeks to quantify the windfall gains associated with property taxes through modelling housing related tax receipts over the period 2002 to 2009. From this, estimates are derived as to the underlying or property adjusted fiscal position, which is found in various years, to have diverged greatly from actual outturns.
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Javier Hyland was furious when he got his lat-est property tax bill from Miami-Dade County. First, the county put the value of his ocean-view apartment at 417,000.Hecantseeanywaytheplaceisworthmorethan417,000. He can't see any way the place is worth more than 400,000 after a meltdown in the South Florida real es-tate market. Worse, the county assessed his neighbor's bigger, nicer, newer flat at only 407,000:"Isthatfair?"asksHyland,apricingmanagerforashippingcompany.Thepropertytaxesindisputeamounttojust407,000: "Is that fair?" asks Hyland, a pricing manager for a shipping company. The property taxes in dispute amount to just 360. But Hyland, 37, is appealing his as-sessment anyway, even though it will mean trudging into city offices to make his case. He'll probably have to stand in line: 143,000 Miami-Dade property owners ap-pealed their property tax bills last year. And Harvey Ruvin, the county's clerk of courts, ex-pects a similar deluge in 2010. Property tax ap-peals in the county hit 104,000 in 2008 compared with an average 40,000 in normal years. From Florida beachfronts to Nevada deserts, fed-up homeowners are challenging property tax bills that have stayed high despite the housing crisis. Retiree Carol Schneider, 63, of Ferguson, Mo., never saw herself as a tax re-bel: "In the past, I just paid my taxes whether I agreed with them or not," she says. "But the last tax bill increased so much ... I decided to fight it." She prevailed, persuading St. Louis County to cut her tax bill in half. Angry homeowners like Schneider and Hyland say their tax assessments and tax bills haven't come down as fast as real estate prices in the worst housing collapse since the 1930s.
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Borrowing against the increase in home equity by existing homeowners was responsible for a significant fraction of the rise in US household leverage from 2002 to 2006 and the increase in defaults from 2006 to 2008. Instrumental variables estimation shows that homeowners extracted 25 cents for every dollar increase in home equity. Home equity-based borrowing was stronger for younger households and households with low credit scores. The evidence suggests that borrowed funds were used for real outlays. Home equity-based borrowing added $1.25 trillion in household debt from 2002 to 2008, and accounts for at least 39 percent of new defaults from 2006 to 2008. JEL: D14, R31
Article
Very little is known about what impact recent large upward and downward swings in single-family home values have had on local government budgets. Using a unique 15-year panel of Florida cities that includes both detailed revenue and house price data, we investigate the pathways whereby a change in house price may affect city revenue per capita and test for symmetric effects during housing booms and busts. For the median-sized city, we find that while increases in house price raise revenues, decreases in price have no effect on revenues. In addition, the former impact is small in magnitude. While the strongest pathway is through assessed values, our results illustrate that a change in house price can also affect other sources of revenue besides ad valorem taxes. The overall conclusion is that movements in Florida housing markets are only weakly related to a city's property taxes and total revenues per capita, which fails to support the argument portrayed in the popular press that house price changes strongly impact local budgets.
Article
Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, this paper considers the mechanism by which changing house values impact U.S. household spending. The results suggest that house values affect consumption by serving as collateral for households to borrow against to smooth their spending. The results show that the consumption of households who need to borrow against their home equity increases by roughly 11 cents per $1.00 increase in their housing wealth. Changing house values, however, have little effect on the expenditures of households who do not need to borrow to finance their consumption. Based on these results, the paper further finds that declining housing wealth has a relatively small implied negative impact on aggregate consumption expenditures.
Article
Many states experienced fiscal crises at the beginning of this decade. Some responded by cutting state aid to local governments. This paper explores the extent to which local governments responded to these aid cuts by raising property taxes. The authors hypothesize that changes in aid help explain the observed differences in per capita property tax revenue changes across states. They find that on average school districts increased property taxes by 23 cents for each dollar cut in state aid. These results highlight the important role that the property tax plays in maintaining the stability of the state and local sector.
Article
Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households’ wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, which appears to contradict the wealth channel. These findings therefore suggest that common causality has been the most important factor behind the link between house price and consumption.
Article
We examine the link between increases in housing wealth, financial wealth, and consumer spending. We rely upon a panel of 14 countries observed annually for various periods during the past 25 years and a panel of U.S. states observed quarterly during the 1980s and 1990s. We impute the aggregate value of owner-occupied housing, the value of financial assets, and measures of aggregate consumption for each of the geographic units over time. We estimate regression models in levels, first differences and in error-correction form, relating consumption to income and wealth measures. We find a statistically significant and rather large effect of housing wealth upon household consumption.
House Prices and City Revenues,” mimeo r 34 Dye, Richard and Andrew Reschovsky. “Property Tax Responses to State Aid Cuts in the Recent Fiscal Crisis
  • William M Doerner
  • R Keith
  • Ihlanfeldt
Doerner, William M. and Keith R. Ihlanfeldt. “House Prices and City Revenues,” mimeo, Florida State University, 2010. r 34 Dye, Richard and Andrew Reschovsky. “Property Tax Responses to State Aid Cuts in the Recent Fiscal Crisis.” Public Budgeting & Finance, Vol. 28, Issue 2, (Summer, 2008): 87-111
Why Your're Paying Too Much in Property Taxes
  • D L Bennett
  • John Perry
Bennett, D.L. and John Perry, "Why Your're Paying Too Much in Property Taxes", Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Metro Section, December 7, 2009.
Some Findings Regarding Monetary Policy and the Ending of House Price Bubbles
  • Mark Carlson
Carlson, Mark. "Some Findings Regarding Monetary Policy and the Ending of House Price Bubbles", mimeo, Federal Reserve Board, 2010.
Transfer Taxes, Real Estate
  • John Behrens
  • Jane Gravelle
Behrens, John and Jane Gravelle. "Transfer Taxes, Real Estate" in The Encyclopedia of Taxation and Tax Policy, eds. Joseph Cordes, Robert Ebel and Jane Gravelle, Urban Institute Press, 2004.
Wealth Effects and the Changing Economy," mimeo, Brookings Institution
  • Karen Dynan
Dynan, Karen. "Wealth Effects and the Changing Economy," mimeo, Brookings Institution, 2010.
Bridge Report for the Quarterly Tax Summary: A Study of the Methodological Changes to the Local Property Tax Component
  • Peter Schilling
  • Amy Couzens
  • Joseph Barth
Schilling, Peter, Amy Couzens and Joseph Barth, "Bridge Report for the Quarterly Tax Summary: A Study of the Methodological Changes to the Local Property Tax Component in 2008-2010", U.S. Census Bureau, Governments Division Report Series, Research Report #2010-2, September 2010.
Quarterly Summary of State and Local Tax Revenue; The National Association of Realtors
Source. Census Bureau, Quarterly Summary of State and Local Tax Revenue; The National Association of Realtors; CoreLogic. 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009