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World aviation fuel demand outlook. OPEC Energy Rev
Abstract
The ton-kilometre performed as a measure of world air traffic grew 6.1 per cent annually during the last three decades despite many impediments during this period, such as the Asian financial crisis, severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak, wars in the Middle East and many security-related events. Although all of the world's regions are experiencing fast growth, the aviation traffic pattern varies by region. However, the traffic growth led to more demand for aviation fuel. World aviation oil demand was 1.18 mb/d in 1971. It experienced an annual growth rate of 2.9 per cent, 0.2 per cent ahead of the transportation sector growth rate, and reaching 4.9 mb/d in 2006. With this consumption level, the aviation sector is the second major consumer with an 11.2 per cent share in total oil demand in the transportation sector. The aviation sector burns about 5.8 per cent of total oil consumed in the world. Technology improvement and better load management among other factors caused ongoing improvement in energy efficiency. Regional econometric modelling showed that aviation fuel demand is inelastic to aviation fuel prices despite their inverse impacts on financial balances of individual airliners. The fuel demand is highly responsive to aviation traffic that in turn is mainly a function of economic growth. Elasticises of fuel demand and aviation traffic confirmed the continuation of the ongoing energy intensity decline in the aviation sector by all the regions of the world. In the reference case, aviation incremental fuel demand will be 2.7 mb/d in 2030, which would leave aviation demand at 7.8 mb/d in the same year. Most of the incremental demand, i.e. 0.75 mb/d, will be contributed by China. Copyright 2010 The Author. Journal compilation 2010 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
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... Lee Sere (2005) and Naylor (2009) suggested distance from origin, parking capacity, fuel capacity, diplomatic relations, proximity to seaports and distance to destination as measures of value when contrasting en route alternatives for airlift routing. Mazraati (2010) highlighted the importance of fuel efficiency metrics by illustrating how fuel costs are increasing as a proportion of airline's total costs. Martin and Voltes-Dorta (2011) used aircraft gross weight as a proxy for the aircraft classification number metric. ...
... Aviation industry fuel encompassed 20% of total costs in 2007 and United Airlines saw their cost of fuel, as a percentage of total cost, vary between 10% and 25% from 1973 to 2006 (Mazraati, 2010). A dynamic capability to obtain the efficient use of fuel and reduce those costs could lead to a sustained competitive advantage. ...
The rising cost of fuel has led to increasing emphasis on fuel efficiency in the aviation industry. As fuel costs become a larger proportion of total costs, those entities with a dynamic capability to increase their fuel efficiency will obtain competitive advantage. Fuel efficiency must be assessed simultaneously with cargo throughput which is the primary goal of airlift effectiveness. Assessing cargo throughput and fuel efficiency requires the creation of all routes of potential value for a given set of requirements that need to be airlifted from source to destination airfield. Routing in this context refers to the set of potential sorties from source to destination. This set of potential routings rapidly increases as source and destination approach antipodal points on the globe. The time required for route computation can be significantly reduced through the use of nodal reduction. Computation time is a critical component to the effective operational comparison of routing alternatives based on cargo throughput and fuel efficiency. Use of the proposed model can assist evaluation of enterprise wide efficiency and effectiveness.
... Airlines are pushing their load factors above 80% and end up with utilization above 10 hours per day (Harned et al. 2007). Over the last 27 years, passenger air travel grew yearly by about 5.9 per cent on average when measured by passenger-kilometer performed (PKP), and by 6.1 per cent if ton-kilometer performed (TKP) is used (Mazraati 2010). The forecasted annual passenger traffic growth rate is 4.8 per cent from 2006 to 2036, resulting in an expected fuel burn of 5 times than in year 2006 according to (ICAO 2010) when no new technologies or operational precautions are introduced (see Figure 1). ...
... Kerosene powered aircraft emit among CO2 and H2O also NOx & SOx gasses together with unburned hydrocarbons and aerosols (Marquart et al. 2001). Considering that the aviation sector burns about 5.8 per cent of total oil consumed in the world (Mazraati 2010), it is significantly contributing to the total amount of emissions. As a result the projected increase of aircraft related NOx emissions is more than 3 times within 30 years in the absence of new clean technologies (ICAO 2010). ...
... Also the 37th ICAO Assembly in 2010 concluded to drive a global annual fuel efficiency improvement of two per cent until 2020, as well as an aspirational global fuel efficiency improvement rate of two per cent per annum from 2021 to 2050, resulting in a global CO2 emission stabilization at 2020 levels (ICAO 2013). (Mazraati 2010) points out that the share of fuel and oil in the total cost of an airline is in line with the price of jet kerosene (see Figure 3). Furthermore the aviation fuel costs in US Airlines operating costs surpassed labor (Roberts 2008). ...
... Worldwide air passenger traffic is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5% over the next two decades (Airbus, 2017;Boeing, 2017). Commercial aviation fuel usage has continuously increased (Mazraati, 2010) as demand for air transport has outpaced improvements in efficiency (Lee et al., 2001). Combined with difficulties in reducing emissions of pollutants such as nitro- 25 gen oxides (NO x ) from aircraft engines, aviation has a unique and growing influence on the chemical composition of the atmosphere. ...
Emissions from aircraft engines contribute to atmospheric NOx, driving changes in both the climate and in surface air quality. Existing atmospheric models typically assume instant dilution of emissions into large-scale grid cells, neglecting non-linear, small-scale processes occurring in aircraft wakes. They also do not explicitly simulate the formation of ice crystals, which could drive local chemical processing. This assumption may lead to errors in estimates of aircraft-attributable ozone production, and in turn to biased estimates of aviation’s current impacts on the atmosphere and the effect of future changes in emissions. This includes soot emissions, on which contrail ice forms. These emissions are expected to reduce as biofuel usage increases, but their chemical effects are not well captured by existing models. To address this problem, we develop a Lagrangian model which explicitly models the chemical and microphysical evolution of an aircraft plume. It includes a unified tropospheric-stratospheric chemical mechanism that incorporates heterogeneous chemistry on background and aircraft-induced aerosols. Microphysical processes are also simulated, including the formation, persistence, and chemical influence of contrails. The plume model is used to quantify how the long-term (24-hour) atmospheric chemical response to an aircraft plume varies in response to different environmental conditions, and engine characteristics, and fuel properties. We find that an instant dilution model consistently overestimates ozone production compared to the plume model, up to a maximum error of ~ 200 % at cruise altitudes. Instant dilution of emissions also underestimates the fraction of remaining NOx, although the magnitude and sign of the error vary with season, altitude, and latitude. We also quantify how changes in soot emissions affect plume behavior. Our results show that a 50 % reduction in black carbon emissions, as may be possible through blending with certain biofuels, leads to contrails which evaporate ~ 9 % faster and are 14 % optically thinner. The conversion of emitted NOx to HNO3 and N2O5 falls by 65 % and 69 % respectively, resulting in chemical feedbacks which are not resolved by instant-dilution approaches. The persistent discrepancies between results from the instant dilution approach and from the aircraft plume model demonstrate that a parametrization of effective emission indices should be incorporated into 3-D atmospheric chemistry transport models.
... Recently, our researchers and scientists feel two vital crises such as energy and safety of the environment. A myriad demand for fuel and energy was being grown up not only for transportation but also in industrialization in the whole planet [2,3]. In the case of innovative growth of industrialization, some products are being a key factor for pollution; including plastics, pharmaceutical waste, household waste, chemical industries waste, medical waste, and garments waste [4][5][6]. ...
... A rapid depletion of energy resources, particularly intensely consumed petroleum derived fuels, namely conventional fuels, is a global issue. Kerosene aviation fuel is a kind of petroleum derived fuel and its cost increases annually as a result of energy crises [5,6]. Regarding such realities, the aviation industry is driven to use alternative and renewable energy technologies in aerial vehicles and aircraft. ...
Nowadays, many environmental issues are of concern as a result of conventional energy resources utilization in addition to a rise in energy costs dependent on the rapid consumption of resources. Therefore, sustainability is an important term for the utilization of energy resources. The aviation industry is known to be responsible for 3% of total CO2 emissions concerning global warming. This forces us to investigate the aviation industry, specifically gas turbine aero-engines. Gas turbine aero-engines, working according to the principles of thermodynamics, similar to other energy conversion and generation systems can be evaluated using the first and second laws of thermodynamics. Integrated employment of the first and second laws of thermodynamics, namely exergy analysis, is an effective method for performance evaluation. Additionally, exergo-sustainability also yields beneficial results. In the framework of the current paper, ecological function is defined for a simple gas turbine aero-engine, while exergo-sustainability assessment methodology is also explained. Exergy efficiency of the compressor, combustor, gas turbine and nozzle, as components of a gas turbine aero-engine, is found to be 91.58%, 57.41%, 97.96%, and 61.25%, respectively. On the other hand, the sustainability measures of the evaluated gas turbine aero-engine in order of exergy efficiency, waste exergy ratio, recoverable exergy rate, exergy destruction factor, environmental effect factor and sustainability index are calculated to be 0.28, 0.71, 0.00, 0.69, 2.45, and 0.40, respectively whereas the ecological function is found to be -8732.21 kW.
... This growth of the aviation industry in previous decades has met with some challenges like escalation in air travel demand, increasing competition, exhausting conventional fuel stocks, fuel rate susceptibility, growing environmental distresses and security threats. Among these, increasing share of fuel cost in total operating cost (Mazraati, 2010) and increasing environmental concerns are real challenge to the sustainability of aviation industry. In initial decades of evolution, air transportation has no concerns regarding fuel availability or its cost. ...
Aviation fuel is a major stakeholder in total operating cost of air transportation. Increasing competition & challenge to keep the travel expenses low to survive have created interest in fuel consumption reduction. Although interest of researchers for Reduction in Aviation Fuel Consumption (RAFC) is growing, yet no study has undertaken initiative towards a development of RAFC framework and instruments. Therefore, this article is an effort to present measurement models with different variables for estimating the RAFC through non-financial and financial measures. The study, through extensive literature review identifies and integrates various fuel consumption reduction initiatives and measures to develop key RAFC constructs conducive for further improvement in aviation fuel efficiency. The RAFC is sub classified as driving forces measurement model, implementation measurement model and performance measurement model. Factor Analysis (FA) and measurement models were used to investigate various constructs of RAFC. After sequence of tests and analysis, study provide refined measurements with acceptable psychometric properties. These measurements can also be applied to varying contexts to extend conceptualization or to test different conceptual models, advancing RAFC theory building.
... Cryoplanes are fuelled by hydrogen (Contreras et al. 1997) or natural gas (Ucler 2013), stored cryogenically in a liquefied phase. Since the expanding aviation industry (Mazraati 2010) is associated with increased fuel consumption (ICAO 2010), it represents a high environmental load (Marquart et al. 2001;Kivits et al. 2010), which contributes to the climate change (Capoccitti et al. 2010). Traditional fuel supply is projected to be limited in the future (Kivits et al. 2010;DOE 2013), where for liquefied gasses are considered along with synthetic biofuels as a solution (Hendricks et al. 2011;ICAO 2009), which are also reducing emissions (Ucler 2013(Ucler , 2014b. ...
Most of commercial civil aircraft are derivatives of each other. They start with an aero-structural design based on the mission profile, and what remains is the integration of existing subsystems. This only leaves room for in-cremental innovation. When a totally new concept has to be worked out, an innovative brainstorming procedure has to be facilitated, leading to a new product definition. This collaborative creative thinking is not an easy task, and analytical design management tools are required. Therefore, an iterative AHP-QFD-AHP approach for brainstorming is implemented into a concurrent engineering environment in the early phases of layout conception. In the case study, the pro-posed model delivered the product definition of the cryoplane concept successfully, which promises clean operation.
... After many consistent efforts by airliners, they are still facing huge difficulties to produce an increase in efficiency and revenue matching instability of fuel price. Top producers of fuel are oversupplying and oil demand of world aviation increased from 1.18 MB/day in 1971 to 4.9 MB/day in 2006 and it's about 11.2% of worldwide overall fuel demand (Mazraati, 2010). Additionally, CO 2 emissions are directly proportional to aviation fuel burning (Airbus, 2015). ...
The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of various aviation infrastructure dimensions over aviation fuel consumption reduction (AFCR) performance. This study is an effort that considers the role of dimensions collectively from all aspects belonging to aviation infrastructure. The relevance of dimensions and constructs for hypothesis development are based on extensive literature review. Exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were performed in the consecutive purification processes. Also, hypothesis testing was conducted using Structural Equation Modeling (SEM). A customized questionnaire was developed for collecting data from both kinds of respondents: Aviation industry experts and academic experts. Out of 382 approaches through mail survey, a total of 194 valid responses were collected. Analysis of the results shows the positive and significant impact of various factors such as: airport design, airspace management and air traffic control over the aviation fuel consumption reduction. Maximum importance is adjudged on air traffic control (ATC) and airspace route flexibility. The results of this study will encourage airlines and airport development authorities to increase their insight over aviation infrastructure, also to perform deeper analysis and find out precise values for real life implications.
... The passenger-kilometer performed (PKP) in air travel grew yearly by about 5.9 per cent on average [Mazraati, 2010] and the load factors of airlines is above 80% [Harned et al, 2007], resulting in four times higher forecasted fuel demand in year 2050 compared to today [ICAO, 2010]. Since kerosene powered aircraft emit several gases such as CO2, H2O, NOx (= NO + NO2), CO, SO2 and unburned hydrocarbons and aerosols [Marquart et al, 2001], new technologies are focused on to reduce these gasses. ...
The growth in air traffic and the prevention efforts against global warming and pollution are forcing the establishment of new alternative fuel technologies in aircrafts. Apart the usage of biofuels, cryogenic liquefied hydrogen (LH2) is focused on in order to assure sustainable green aviation. However there are open items regarding the storage of LH2 in cryoplanes: The cylindrical pressure vessels are bulky; not appropriate to be stored in the wings, and together with the required thermal insulation they are heavy. Instead of having a zero emission aircraft with LH2, the usage of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is proposed herewith in combination with lower pressure membrane type tanks and submerged cryogenic pumps in wet wings, connected to a central pressure vessel in the fuselage; allowing the reduction of unwanted emissions, the utilization of the space in the wings, the compensation of the boil-off gasses and the prevention of the pressure drop due to sloshing within the LNG tank. Finally this approach is validated by a hazard and operability study (HAZOP) delivering the conceptual framework for future development of detailed cryogenic storage & fuelling system design for cryoplanes.
... The combustion products of the conventional jet fuel include carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), carbon monoxide (CO), partially combusted hydrocarbons, oxides of sulfur (SO x ), particulates, water vapor (H 2 O), and other compounds. On a daily basis, the global airline industry utilizes 5 million barrels of oil [6]. Between October 2013 and September 2014, the U.S. airlines approximately utilized 16.2 billion gallons of fuel [7]. ...
The increasing concerns related to the environment causes aviation policies to become more stringent. There are emission restrictions established for the aviation industry in future and it is important to use an alternative jet fuel with lower socio-environmental impacts. For the present fleet of passenger aircrafts, this study assesses the sustainability of algae-derived Hydro-processed Renewable (HR) jet fuel to be used from year 2020, in comparison with petroleum-based jet fuel. The impact assessment is carried out using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) tools which ‘quantify’ all socio-environmental damages. On life-cycle basis it is found that, by replacing petroleum-based jet fuel with HR jet fuel from algae in all classes of passenger aircrafts, the Green-House Gases (GHGs) emission will reduce by 68.81%-68.87%, damage to Resources (R) will reduce by 78.6%, damage to Eco-system Quality (EQ) will reduce by 1.2%-4.59%, and damage to Human Health (HH) will reduce by 23.6%-29%; where petroleum-based jet fuel contributes 9.61%-11.94% damage to R, 5.46%-6.61% damage to EQ, and 82.6%-83.78% damage to HH, of the total damages caused. The price of 100% HR jet fuel from algae in year 2020 will likely be lesser than or similar to the petroleum-based jet fuel. Therefore, for all classes of passenger aircrafts, using HR jet fuel from algae will be more sustainable from market-entry year 2020, compared to petroleum-based jet fuel.
... Although the current share of aviation fuel demand in total world oil demand is only about 5.8 %, its growth rate causes 2.7 million barrels per day incremental oil demand by 2030 (Mazraati 2011), despite impressive energy efficiency improvements of 3 % per year. In the aircraft industry, aluminum is continuously substituted by composite materials. ...
The transport sector is fundamental for the economy but also for personal life. With a growing population and the globalization process, it is not surprising that the demand of transport is set to grow in the near future and certainly until 2050. This paper focuses on the huge potential of progress in the sector of technology for transport. As the principal sector for transport will remain on roads, the paper emphasizes the progress in the automotive sector. Since car manufacturers are investing massively into research and technology development to offer ever more efficient cars-not only energy efficient but also efficient in terms of safety and comfort-the car of tomorrow will be very different from the present one. The increasing role of electronics in cars will synergistically cooperate with that of so-called smart cities. The potential development of methane in the transport sector, mainly used for heavy transportation is discussed.
... Air travel did grow over the last 27 years annually by 5.9 % on average in terms of passenger-kilometer performed (PKP), and by 6.1 % in terms of tonkilometer performed (TKP), [1]. With the increasing air traffic airlines are utilized above 10 hours per day reaching a load factors above 80% [2]. ...
There is a high growth in the air traffic supported by the global trade and tourism and due to airport congestion travelers are spending more time at airports, which are competing to attract airlines with lower aeronautical costs reducing their profitability. The growing transit time spent at airports together with the waiting time in front of check-in, passport, security control or baggage claim is an idle time of the air traveler, which is not generating any value. The perception of waiting is also mostly negative, that the associated airports are disliked, leading to loss of revenue in commercial offerings. Another problem is that due to the high variety in the customer profile, the shops at the airports need to carry a high inventory over a wide spectrum of items required, which is not creating any value as well. Thus in order to deliver a sustainable value chain at the airport, an innovative customer focused integrated approach is proposed herewith, based on a smart phone platform called Gate Ø, facilitating the idle times of the air traveler. This strategic approach is evaluated successfully within a value chain analysis showing up its potential across the value chain stakeholders.
... As shown in Table 4, we find similar trends in ATK. The difference in predicted growth rates between RTK and ATK -at the regional and world levels -may be explained by the with previous studies (Airbus, 2009;Boeing, 2009;Mazraati, 2010) confirming that in several regions, air traffic should grow faster than GDP. Moreover, we confirm the growing influence of China in the aviation sector. ...
This article proposes an econometric analysis of the demand for mobility in the aviation sector. The role played by different variables (GDP, jet-fuel prices, exogenous shocks, market maturity) on air traffic is estimated using dynamic panel-data modeling. GDP appears to have a positive influence on air traffic, whereas Jet-Fuel prices have a non-linear effect on air traffic. Our analysis shows that the magnitude of the influence of these air traffic determinants differs widely among regions. Then, we use our model to predict the evolution of air traffic until 2025. According to our main scenario, air traffic should be multiplied by a factor of two between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7% (ranging from 3% in North America to 8% in China, at the regional level) expressed in RTK.
... In spite of this improvement, energy use by commercial air carriers grew at an annual rate of 2 % from 1970 to 1987. Mohammad Mazraati [2] concluded upon continuously increasing fuel consumption and air traffic. According to this study, world aviation oil demand was 1.18 MB/d in 1971, and reached 4.9 MB/d in 2006. ...
Findings and conclusions: This has resulted in the identification of 277 articles from 69 journals by year of publication, journal, and topic area based on the two classification schemes related to FCO research, published between, 1973 to December- 2014. In addition, the study has identified the 4 dimensions and 98 decision variables affecting the fuel consumption. Also, this study has explained the six categories of FCO research methodologies (analytical - conceptual, mathematical, statistical, and empirical-experimental, statistical, and case studies) and optimization techniques (linear programming, mixed integer programming, dynamic programming, gradient based algorithms, simulation modeling, and nature based algorithms). The findings of this study indicate that the analytical-mathematical research methodologies represent the 47 % of FCO research. The results show that there is an increasing trend in research of the FCO. It is observed that the number of published articles between the period 1973 and 2000 is less (90 articles), so we can say that there are 187 articles which appeared in various journals and other publication sources in the area of FCO since 2000. Furthermore there is increased trend in research on FCO from 2000 onward. This is due to the fact that continuously new researchers are commencing their research activities in FCO research. This shows clearly that FCO research is a current research area among many research groups across the world. Lastly, the prices of jet fuel have significantly increased since the 2005. The aviation sector’s fuel efficiency improvements have slowed down since the 1970s–1980s due to the slower pace of technological development in engine and aerodynamic designs and airframe materials.
... Aviation oil consumption accounts for 5.8 percent of the world oil consumption. The regional calculation economic model, built by Mazraati (2010), showed that aviation fuel demand lacked price elasticity, but there was a strong functional relationship between this demand and economic growth. While aviation fuel demand intensity across the world is continually reducing, it is expected that aviation fuel demand will increase to 2.7mb/d by 2030, quite a significant proportion of which (0.75mb/d) will come from China. ...
... The AERO2k global aviation emissions inventories reported a total of 176 Tg of kerosene used in 2002 for both civil (156 Tg) and military (19.5 Tg) aviation (Eyers et al., 2004); other studies of the 2000e2005 period estimated that the global aviation industry consumed approximately 170e203 Tg of kerosene per year with an evident decrease in 2001e2002 following the drop of aviation traffic due to the 11th September 2001 and SARS events ; Wilkerson et al. (2010), Whitt et al. (2011) and Olsen et al. (2013) (Barrett et al., 2010, and reference therein). Data from OPEC (Mazraati, 2010) stated that the aviation sector in 2006 was the second major consumer of total oil demand in the transportation sector (11.2%) and accounted for 5.8% of total oil consumed in the world. Given the past and future growth of the aviation industry, this consumption may rise further: AERO2k emission inventories estimated a forecast scenario for 2025 in which the fuel demand for aviation will be 327 Tg y À1 (Eyers et al., 2004);Ch eze et al. (2011) reported that the world jet fuel demand is projected to grow by 38% between 2008 and 2025, rising to more than 316 Mt in 2025 at a mean growth rate of 1.9% per year. ...
Civil aviation is fast-growing (about +5% every year), mainly driven by the developing economies and globalization. Its impact on the environment is heavily debated, particularly in relation to climate forcing attributed to emissions at cruising altitudes and the noise and the deterioration of air quality at ground-level due to airport operations. This latter environmental issue is of particular interest to the scientific community and policymakers, especially in relation to the breach of limit and target values for many air pollutants, mainly nitrogen oxides and particulate matter, near the busiest airports and the resulting consequences for public health. Despite the increased attention given to aircraft emissions at ground-level and air pollution in the vicinity of airports, many research gaps remain. Sources relevant to air quality include not only engine exhaust and non-exhaust emissions from aircraft, but also emissions from the units providing power to the aircraft on the ground, the traffic due to the airport ground service, maintenance work, heating facilities, fugitive vapours from refuelling operations, kitchens and restaurants for passengers and operators, intermodal transportation systems, and road traffic for transporting people and goods in and out to the airport. Many of these sources have received inadequate attention, despite their high potential for impact on air quality. This review aims to summarise the state-of-the-art research on aircraft and airport emissions and attempts to synthesise the results of studies that have addressed this issue. It also aims to describe the key characteristics of pollution, the impacts upon global and local air quality and to address the future potential of research by highlighting research needs.
... [2] Commercial aviation is a steadily growing, energy intensive industry. The average annual growth rate in passenger traffic was 5.3% per year between 2000 and 2007 [Lee et al., 2009], and the industry accounts for approximately 5.8% of all oil consumption world wide [Mazraati, 2010]. Consequently, it is important to identify potential impacts of aviation on climate and public health. ...
Data analysis and numerical simulations were used to examine vertical transport of cruise-altitude commercial aircraft emissions to the surface. First, aircraft emission data were compared with static stability and potential temperature data from satellites. Second, we ran global 3-D simulations of a passive tracer released uniformly at 11 km (cruise altitude). We present global, regional, and seasonal results of the data comparisons as well as approximate time scales of vertical mixing derived from the simulations. Using the year 2006 as a case study, we found that 24% of all global commercial aviation emissions occurred in the stratosphere, 17% occurred both north of 40° N and above the 330 K isentrope, and 54% occurred in regions of at least moderate static stability (N2 > 10-4 s-2). In addition, 74% of emissions in the Arctic Circle were in the stratosphere. In the 3-D simulations, the globally averaged tracer-plume e-folding lifetime against vertical transport to any other altitude was 16 days during January and 14 days during July. Furthermore, the passive tracer took 15 days longer in January (77 days) compared with July (62 days) to achieve a surface-to-cruise mixing ratio fraction greater than 0.5 at all latitudes. The dynamical mixing time scales of extratropical cruise-altitude emissions were significantly longer than the globally averaged wet removal time of 4-5 days for aerosol particles emitted in the lower troposphere. Thus, it is unlikely that cruise-altitude emissions affect surface air quality via transport alone outside the tropics.
In one trip, the flight route can be seen in terms of weight, cargo, and the price of fuel needed as a very important aspect. Fuel prices that are high enough can have an impact on operational costs that were incurred by an airline. The purpose of this study was to avoid re-fueling at the re-fueling stations that cost more than the original station. This study used the fuel tankering method, and also focused on the Garuda Indonesia flight B737-800 NG airline with Jogyakarta-Singapore-Jakarta route and alternative airports at Pekanbaru and Surabaya. From the results of the data that was obtained and the analysis the result of this study was by refueling using the fuel tankering method was more profitable than normal way of re-fueling. However, there were aspects that need to be considered in the route using this method including temperature, altitude, flight distance and fuel prices that were differrent at each airport.Keywords: Route, Fuel Price, fuel tankering method.
In one trip, the flight route can be seen in terms of weight, cargo, and the price of fuel needed as a very important aspect. Fuel prices that are high enough can have an impact on operational costs that were incurred by an airline. The purpose of this study was to avoid refueling at the refueling stations that cost more than the original station. This study used the fuel tankering method, and also focused on the Garuda Indonesia flight B737-800 NG airline with Jogyakarta-Singapore-Jakarta route and alternative airports at Pekanbaru and Surabaya. From the results of the data that was obtained and the analysis the result of this study was by refueling using the fuel tankering method was more profitable than normal way of refueling. However, there were aspects that need to be considered in the route using this method including temperature, altitude, flight distance and fuel prices that were differrent at each airport. Introduction Background The development of the aviation industry was marked by the increasing need for aircraft. The aerospace business people were racing to develop their business in choosing the aircraft that were going to be used. Besides, the development of flight routes that were built, would increase the frequency of flights. Increasing number of aircraft and flight routes created competition for airline operators. Aviation operators were not only competing to get customers through the routes but also need to determine the capacity of the aircraft that were used and efficient fuel consumption. Besides that, flight operators were required to make good and timely flight schedules. Keep in mind that delays in flight time will incur significant costs and could lead to fuel waste. Good and efficient flight could optimize the use of aviation turbine fuel properly and in the corridor to maintain safety of the flight. According to A Majka, (2007) the use of fuel at this time was one that must be considered, because aircraft that carry excessive fuel would increase costs and reduce the carrying capacity of the aircraft. This situation certainly required effective and efficient fuel management. It was also important to know the price of aviation fuel at different airports. Therefore, airlines need to consider the routes that were chosen. Besides that, each aircraft has different aviation fuel specifications. Nur Feriyanto et al. (2016) conducted a study on the analysis of the used of aviation fuel based on flight routes by comparing Boeing 737-400 and Airbus A320-200 aircraft on the Jakarta-Bali route. The conclusion was that Airbus was more efficient in the use of aviation fuel compared to Boeing.
Emissions from aircraft engines contribute to atmospheric NOx, driving changes in both the climate and in surface air quality. Existing atmospheric models typically assume instant dilution of emissions into large-scale grid cells, neglecting non-linear, small-scale processes occurring in aircraft wakes. They also do not explicitly simulate the formation of ice crystals, which could drive local chemical processing. This assumption may lead to errors in estimates of aircraft-attributable ozone production, and in turn to biased estimates of aviation's current impacts on the atmosphere and the effect of future changes in emissions. This includes black carbon emissions, on which contrail ice forms. These emissions are expected to reduce as biofuel usage increases, but their chemical effects are not well captured by existing models. To address this problem, we develop a Lagrangian model that explicitly models the chemical and microphysical evolution of an aircraft plume. It includes a unified tropospheric–stratospheric chemical mechanism that incorporates heterogeneous chemistry on background and aircraft-induced aerosols. Microphysical processes are also simulated, including the formation, persistence, and chemical influence of contrails. The plume model is used to quantify how the long-term (24 h) atmospheric chemical response to an aircraft plume varies in response to different environmental conditions, engine characteristics, and fuel properties. We find that an instant-dilution model consistently overestimates ozone production compared to the plume model, up to a maximum error of ∼200 % at cruise altitudes. Instant dilution of emissions also underestimates the fraction of remaining NOx, although the magnitude and sign of the error vary with season, altitude, and latitude. We also quantify how changes in black carbon emissions affect plume behavior. Our results suggest that a 50 % reduction in black carbon emissions, as may be possible through blending with certain biofuels, may lead to thinner, shorter-lived contrails. For the cases that we modeled, these contrails sublimate ∼5 % to 15 % sooner and are 10 % to 22 % optically thinner. The conversion of emitted NOx to HNO3 and N2O5 falls by 16 % and 33 %, respectively, resulting in chemical feedbacks that are not resolved by instant-dilution approaches. The persistent discrepancies between results from the instant-dilution approach and from the aircraft plume model demonstrate that a parameterization of effective emission indices should be incorporated into 3-D atmospheric chemistry transport models.
This chapter presents various aspects of scarcity, the nature of Promethean technology, and future perspectives for fossil fuels and uranium. Reconsideration is given to three crucial aspects of scarcity originally conceptualized within the framework of conventional economics, i.e. limitless wants compared with limited resources and goods, the substitution concept related to scarcity, and scarcity related to the issue of a fair allocation of resources. The discussion of scarcity is also related to five aspects of the finiteness of resources and environmental constraints for sustainability. A new energy transformation scheme is introduced to deal with the metabolic pattern of society. The new transformation scheme allows a consistent and precise definition of both feasible technology and Promethean technology. A reexamination of future perspectives for coal, oil, natural gas and uranium is conducted. Special attention is also paid to aviation fuel such as aviation gasoline and jet fuels, due to an anticipated future increased demand for that particular variety of fuel. The dream of a nuclear fuel cycle, i.e. transforming uranium-238 into plutonium in a fast breed reactor, is shown to be a delusion. A brief discussion is provided concerning the prospects of shale gas and methane hydrate as alternative primary energy sources.
This paper unequivocally links particle emissions to specific planes engaged in landing and take-off (LTO) activity at Salzburg Airport (SZG, Austria). This is possible because particles were counted in ten second intervals over multiple months at two locations simultaneously upwind and downwind in close proximity of the runway. As background levels are relatively low and LTO activities are limited, data on aircraft noise and identity enables the allocation of sharp and short-lived spikes of particle concentrations to specific aircraft located upwind. In addition, the spike shapes may even be used to identify engine modes and deduce conjectures on LTO movements of the plane. Particle size distribution measurements confirm aircraft engines as the site of origin.
Terpenes and their subclass terpenoids are natural products, extracted from various plants and trees. As a result of their structural diversity, they offer versatile functionalisation possibilities when incorporated into synthetic polymers. This investigation aims at synthesizing a range of terpenoid-based (meth)acrylates via widely reported or less conventional methods and at screening these different synthetic methodologies in terms of their green credentials. The underlying goal has been to both qualitatively and quantitatively determine the most atom efficient and sustainable pathway with the help of the recently developed CHEM21 green metrics toolkit. At the same time, this study shows the ease of this evaluation system and encourages a more widespread use of this toolkit, not only in polymer science but also in other areas of chemistry.
This book provides insights into China's energy consumption and pollution as well as its energy saving policies. It explores energy saving ways and argues for an energy consumption revolution, which includes technologies to improve transportation resource efficiency, modification of existing transportation infrastructure and structure. This book uses various analytical models to study the relationships within the transportation system. It also includes comparative analysis of China, Japan, the US and developing countries on traffic demand and transportation energy consumption. This book highlights the urgent need to review China's current transportation policies in order to secure a breakthrough in energy saving and emissions reduction. © 2017 Jian Chai, Ying Yang, Quanying Lu, Limin Xing, Ting Liang, Kin Keung Lai and Shouyang Wang. All rights reserved.
Turkey’s ambitious Vision 2023 agenda foresees a significant growth in the country’s aviation sector. However, forecasts for Turkey’s jet fuel demand in the view of Vision 2023 are not available in the published literature. Also, there is no information about the country’s potential bio-based jet fuel demand after 2020, when it is plausible to become a mandatory supplement to kerosene. As a result, for the first time in this study, semi-empirical models were generated to provide Turkey’s jet fuel and bio-based jet fuel forecasts based on the country’s Vision 2023 energy targets. These models were generated taking current market dynamics, business as usual, and the possibility of enhanced economic growth for Turkey based on Vision 2023 energy and economic targets. As a result, Turkey’s jet fuel demand in 2023 was estimated at between 4.230 and 7.880 billion litres. Also, it was calculated that Turkey could need up to 0.307 billion litres of bio-based jet fuel in 2023, if its consumption becomes mandatory after 2020.
With the development of industrial farming a number of problems occur. One of these is pollution of soil, water and environment by improper storage and usage of manure. The great difficulties create liquid manure generated during water cleaning of the premises. In our country, many livestock farms are left without technology solutions for storage and use of manure, this may lead to environment pollution. Increase of the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide—CO2, methane—CH4 and nitrous oxides—N2O) has been observed since the end of the nineteenth century. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the global average temperature of the land surface has risen by 0.4–0.8 °C for the last 100 years due to the increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere (CO2 emissions by 29 %, CH4 emissions by 150 % and N2O emissions by 15 %) (Mitova and Petrova, International symposium INMATEH agricultural engineering, 2013; Thorne, Environ Health Perspect 115:296–297, 2007; Topping, http:// www. climate. org/ 2002/ programs/ washington_ summit_ temperature_ rise. shtml, 2007) [15, 31, 32]. The FAO found that the animal agriculture sector emits 18 %, or nearly one-fifth, of human-induced GHG emissions, more than the transportation sector (Proorocu et al., Bull USAMV Agric 67(2), 2010; Silverstein, Energy Biz Insider, 2007; Steinfeld et al., Livestock’s long shadow: environmental issues and options. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United 314 Nations, Rome, 2006; Storck, More farms find unlikely power source: manure. http:// www. meatingplace. com/ MembersOnly/ webNews/ details. aspx? item= 18539, 2007) [25–27, 29]. In order to reduce the pollutant effect of livestock and reduction of greenhouse gases is necessary to carry out properly storage and recovery of waste from animal farming. Waste management from livestock is related to their location, the cleaning of the premises, characteristics, availability of enough space in the area, periods of storage, utilization of manure, etc. The aim of this study is to analyze and evaluate the manure from livestock farms in the region of Veliko Tarnovo and recommend technology solutions for proper utilization, to reduce pollution and gas emissions into the atmosphere. Fourteen farms in Veliko Tarnovo region were surveyed. The comparative agrochemical, chemical and environmental assessment of stayed and fresh manure, found that the greatest nutritional value has poultry manure, followed by pig and cattle manure. Poultry manure is highly concentrated and fast-acting. Depending on the way of cleaning, we recommended technology solutions for proper storage and use of manure for each farm.
Wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) are based on natural processes and provide organic carbon, nutrients and pathogenic microorganisms from wastewater. Wastewater treatment generates significant amount of greenhouse gases mainly methane and nitrous oxide. Reducing these emissions from the treatment process and the contribution of the wastewater treatment (WWT) processes to global warming are major concerns. On the other hand, WWTPs allow recovering energy, and nutrients, thus the reuse of treated wastewater in developing and developed countries can be appropriated (Anastasios and Athanasia, Managing water resources under climate uncertainty, pp 197–220, 2015; Casey, Greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment plants get closer scrutiny. Scientific American, 2010; Gallaher, Global mitigation of non CO2 greenhouse gases. Section-III, Waste, 2006; Gupta and Singh, J Water Sustain 2(2):131–139, 2012; Plósz et al., Water Sci Technol 60(2):533–541, 2009) [1, 2, 7, 9, 28]. Under intensive use of chemical fertilizer, the balance of organic matter is disturbed and chemical and physical properties of soil are degraded. To maintain and improve soil fertility it is necessary to import organic fertilizer periodically. Incorporation of organic material contributes to the increase of soil organic matter and preserves the quality and quantity of soil nitrogen. The lack of organic fertilizers requires seeking of alternative options. Such reserve is sludge obtained during biological wastewater treatment. Despite the existence of legislation on the use of sludge in agricultural practice, there is still mistrust among farmers for their use. The aim of the study is to establish the changes in system “soil-fertilizer-plant” as a result of fertilization with sludge. In 2006 and 2007 on selected arrays of cultivated soils of Sofia region, sludge from WWTP—Kubratovo as soil improver, accordance with the legislation was imported. Crops are corn and sunflower. The rate of sludge was calculated on the basis of chemical analysis for nitrogen content, soil differences, requirements of crops, etc. In 2013 (after 5–6 years of cultivation) the same arrays are taken as average samples and analyzed for the same chemical properties. During the whole period in this area the chemical fertilizer is not imported. The results found that the use of sludge as a soil improver does not represent environmental risk and can be used in agricultural practice to maintain and improve soil fertility and crop yields, according to legal requirements
This investigation analysed the growing impact of commercial aviation on CO2 emissions, as well as its potential impact on climate change. It reviewed the effects of the Japanese Aviation Fuel Tax (koukuukinenryouzei), which has been levied on fuel loaded into all domestic flights in Japan since 1972. Using a Bayesian structural time series model, based on monthly observations of fuel consumption between 2004 and 2013 provided by the Ministry of Land, Transport, Infrastructure and Tourism - Japan, this research estimated the effect that this tax has had on the national demand for aviation fuel. It was established that the fuel tax has unequivocally reduced the amount of CO2 emissions from aircraft.
The past several years have seen dramatic increases in oil prices, which have adversely impacted airlines, with the average price of jet fuel increasing from $1.34 per gallon between 1995 and 2005 to $2.81 per gallon between 2006 and 2009. As a partial response to these increases in costs, many airlines have introduced fees for services that were previously provided to their customers free of charge. One such charge is a fee on checked baggage, which most airlines introduced in 2008. These charges have been successful in increasing airline revenues, so successful that many airlines have increased their fees multiple times over the past two years. Baggage fees have also enabled airlines to avoid dramatic increases in their airfares, which may result in significantly fewer customers, as these additional fees generate revenues, but since they are not collected when passengers book their tickets, the cost of air travel on these airlines appears lower than it actually is. The most notable exception to this pattern of charging baggage fees is Southwest Airlines, which has launched a “Bags Fly Free” advertising campaign in an attempt to differentiate their product from that of fee charging airlines. In this chapter, we use a spatial autoregressive model to analyze what impact the increase in fuel costs, and the introduction of baggage fees have had on ticket prices. Our results suggest that increases in jet fuel prices are passed along to travelers in the form of higher ticket prices but that baggage fees actually reduce ticket prices, as airlines may substitute baggage fee revenue for ticket revenue to become more competitive on their airfare. We also find that Southwest Airlines has increased their ticket prices on routes in which they compete with fee charging firms, leveraging their “Bags Fly Free” product differentiation to increase their revenues.
This paper compares the performance of JP-8(Jet Propellant) fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and natural gas in the F110 GE100 jet engine. The cost of natural gas usage in gas turbine engines is lower than JP-8 and LPG. LPG cost is more than JP-8. LPG volume is bigger than JP-8 in the same flight conditions. Fuel tank should be cryogenic for using natural gas in the aircraft. Cost and weight of the cryogenic tanks are bigger. Cryogenic tanks decrease the move capability of the aircraft. The use of jet propellant (JP) is the best in available application for F110 GE 100 jet engine.
In this study, sustainability parameters of a turboprop engine are presented with exergetic approach. At first, commonly used sustainability assessment methods are summarized. Then, fundamentals of exergy analysis and sustainability terms are explained in details. After all, a turboprop engine is evaluated from this viewpoint to exemplify the explained methodology. As a result of the component based exergy analysis, exergy efficiency of the air compressor, combustion chamber, gas turbine and power turbine are found to be 87.04%, 74.50%, 89.0% and 92.23% respectively whereas exergy efficiency of the overall engine is 38.09%. In the sustainable framework; waste exergy ratio, recoverable exergy rate, exergy destruction factor, environmental effect factor and exergetic sustainability index of the overall engine are found to be in order of 0.43, 0.00, 0.20, 4.38 and 0.23.
Introduction The article aims to evolve the base for fuel
consumption optimization (FCO) in Indian air transport industry.
The objective of this paper is to design the methodology
and to develop five facet model of fuel consumption
optimization (FCO). Limited researches have been conducted
to explore influencing factors for FCO in air transport industry.
To fill this gap, this study proposes the model of FCO, and
investigates key factors affecting FCO.
Methodology The research steps included exploratory factor
analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and testing of structural
model. In the first stage exploratory factor analysis (EFA) was
used to provide the grouping of variables underline the complete
set of item based upon the strong correlation. In the
second stage, a confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) was used
to specify and estimate of one or more hypothetical models of
factor structure, each of which propose a set of latent variables
to account for covariance within a set of observed variables. In
the third stage, we used the Structural Equation Modeling
(SEM) technique and empirically tested the relationships between
fuel consumption optimization and aircraft operations
(AO), aircraft technology&design (ATD), social-economic&
political (SEP), aviation infrastructural (AI), and alternate
fuels & fuel properties (AFP).
Results The results and applications of structural equation
modeling (SEM) evolve variety of findings. (1) Aircraft operations
(AO), aircraft technology & design (ATD), socio-economic
& political issues (SEP), aviation infrastructure (AI),
and alternative fuels & fuel properties (AFP) are proved to be
the five key influence factors with respect to the Indian context
and have positive effect on FCO. (2) Among the five
influence factors for FCO, aircraft technology & design exhibits
the strongest effect on FCO, followed by aircraft operation,
alternative fuels & fuel properties, socio-economic &
political, and aviation infrastructure. (3) The highest squared
correlation was observed between aircraft technology & design
and aircraft operations.
Conclusions and future work This study has provided empirical
justification for the proposed research framework which
describes the relationships between FCO and its dimensions.
This has developed an integrated model of FCO, with the
purposes of identifying the key factors affecting the FCO.
The knowledge of relationship among variables can lead to
frame objective function, constraints, and set of equations
pertaining situations with regard to Indian scenario. To constitute
the equations the data of identified critical factors with
regard to Indian scenario can be utilized which will lead to
develop optimization based model for fuel consumption that
leaves the scope for further study. This study produces the
results which represent the base for optimum solution of fuel
consumption on which future researchers can target
A poisonous and environmentally hazardous byproduct of aviation gasoline combustion is lead emissions. A proposed increase in the aviation gasoline tax from 19.4 to 70.1 cents per gallon has generated a heated debate between pilots and the Federal Aviation Administration. Given that general aviation produces approximately 50% (over 1200 tons) of all lead emissions in the US, understanding the sensitivity that aviation gasoline demand has to price changes is essential to better understanding the policy implications and the environmental impact from an increased tax. Few studies have examined aviation fuel elasticities and no known study has estimated aviation gasoline elasticities. This paper fills that gap and estimates the price elasticity of demand to range from −0.043 to −0.185 in the short-run and from −0.132 to −0.303 in the long-run. Consequently, the estimated impact of the proposed tax increase is a reduction of between 10.71 to 21.30 tons of lead in the short-run and between 15.12 to 34.78 tons of lead in the long-run. Finally, tax revenue could be increased by more than 350% to over $196 million (2009 US$) with the proposed aviation gasoline tax increase.
Some argue that peak conventional oil production is imminent due to physical resource scarcity. We examine the alternative possibility of reduced oil use due to improved efficiency and oil substitution. Our model uses historical relationships to project future demand for a) transport services, b) all liquid fuels, and c) substitution with alternative energy carriers, including electricity. Results show great increases in passenger and freight transport activity, but less reliance on oil. Demand for liquids inputs to refineries declines significantly after 2070. By 2100 transport energy demand rises >1000% in Asia, while flattening in North America (+23%) and Europe (-20%). Conventional oil demand declines after 2035, and cumulative oil production is 1900 Gbbl from 2010-2100 (close to USGS median estimates of remaining oil, which only includes projected discoveries through 2025). These results suggest that effort is better spent to determine and influence the trajectory of oil substitution and efficiency improvement rather than to focus on oil resource scarcity. The results also imply that policy makers should not rely on liquid fossil fuel scarcity to constrain damage from climate change. However, there is an unpredictable range of emissions impacts depending on which mix of substitutes for conventional oil gains dominance - oil sands, electricity, coal-to-liquids, or others.
This article provides jet fuel demand projections at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Air traffic forecasts are performed using dynamic panel-data econometrics. Then, the conversion of air traffic projections into quantities of jet fuel is accomplished by using a complementary approach to the 'Traffic Efficiency' method developed previously by the UK Department of Trade and Industry to support the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1999). According to our main scenario, air traffic should increase by about 100% between 2008 and 2025 at the world level, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 4.7%. World jet fuel demand is expected to increase by about 38% during the same period, corresponding to a yearly average growth rate of 1.9% per year. According to these results, energy efficiency improvements allow reducing the effect of air traffic rise on the increase in jet fuel demand, but do not annihilate it. Jet fuel demand is thus unlikely to diminish unless there is a radical technological shift, or air travel demand is restricted.
In this paper we discuss the general issue of forecasting highly seasonal demand in regional airports, where peak flows approach airport capacity. For this, we propose a modeling combination, dynamic Tobit models with GARCH errors/disturbances, that is able to capture many of the shortcomings of most traditional models. Models are calibrated using monthly passenger and flight data for a 20 year period for the airport of Corfu in Greece, where traffic over the summer approaches airport capacity and seasonal fluctuations in demand are very intense. Results show that: i. Not explicitly accounting for seasonal variations in demand or for traffic approaching capacity may significantly bias model parameter estimates and affect demand predictions; and, ii. Improved demand model specifications are an invaluable tool in obtaining more accurate demand estimates.
The aviation sector's contribution to the world economy is 8 per cent, while using 5.8 per cent of total world oil demand. Within the transportation sector, aviation consumes about 12.7 per cent of the total oil demanded by the transportation sector, with a growth rate of 2.32 per cent per annum in recent years, confirming the importance of aviation in the future energy market and economy. This paper considers modelling fuel demand in aviation sectors of two different markets. Jet fuel demand is modelled in the United States as a matured market and China as a fast growing market. A constant elasticity log-log model using recent data of passenger aviation traffic, freight aviation traffic and airline load factors for both countries. Economic growth and fuel prices were also considered as determinants in the model. A system of three equations was developed for each country to forecast long-term jet fuel consumption levels to 2025. The mature US aviation sector was found to react better to price and short-term economic fluctuations, in contrast with the fast growing Chinese aviation sector, where the hike in prices did not seem to have much effect.
This study presents a dynamical systems model for long-term scenarios of demand in the aviation sector and resultant emissions of CO2 and NOx. We analyze the dynamics of demand growth for aviation, particularly in the emerging markets of developing nations. A model for subsonic aviation emissions is presented that reflects the consequences of industry forecasts for improvement in aviation fuel efficiency and emissions indices as well as projections of global economic and population growth over the next century. (Emissions of commercial supersonic aircraft are not modeled here.) The model incorporates a dynamical system of logistic growth towards a time-dependent capacity level. Using the long-term model, we present a set of projections of demand for aviation services, fossil fuel use, and emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) through the year 2100; previous forecasts have not extended past 2040. We briefly discuss expectations for the distribution of NOx emissions over altitude and latitude.
On the quest for reducing the fuel consumption per passenger per flight for economical and environmental reasons, commercial aircraft manufacturers are implementing new strategies for optimising aircraft performance by using new lighter and stronger materials and enhancing engines' efficiencies in terms of fuel consumption and maintenance requirements. With the rising and falling of economies, whether in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries or other developing countries, the aviation industry has been affected by multiple factors such as passenger traffic, freight traffic, airport capacities and oil prices. Aircraft manufacturers have worked on improving the engine efficiency of their newly built airplanes (e.g. Airbus's A-380 and Boeing's B-787), and many airports in the world have increased the number of their runways to face the increasing demand for air traffic in the world. Aviation efficiency can also be achieved through better load management, which in return enables airliners to cope with higher oil prices or rising costs. Aviation fuel demand is modelled in OECD North America, Europe and Pacific regions and some selected developing countries. Price elasticities of fuel demand in all regions are low, while income elasticities are high. The elasticity of aviation fuel demand on passenger kilometre performed (PKP) is considerably low. One per cent increase in PKP leads to less than half a per cent increase in aviation fuel demand, confirming an ongoing fuel efficiency in aviation industry. Copyright 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation 2009 Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
Since 1965 U.S. air travel has grown three times faster than GNP. Jet fuel demand, although virtually unchanged between 1969 and 1982 because of improved efficiency in fuel use by jet aircraft, has grown 30 percent since 1982. The key question is whether fuel-efficiency improvements can keep up with the rapid growth in air travel.
Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel Working Papers 87-22 Airline industry outlook: 2007 marks the peak of this cycle––the outlook has become more challenging. IATA Ops forum Outlook for air transport to the year 2025 International civil aviation organization. The ICAO Data website
- D Gately
Gately, D., 1987. Taking Off: The U.S. Demand for Air Travel and Jet Fuel. Working Papers 87-22, C.V. Starr Centre for Applied Economics, New York University. IATA, 2008a. Airline industry outlook: 2007 marks the peak of this cycle––the outlook has become more challenging. IATA Ops forum, Madrid 25–27 February, 2008. URL http://www.iata.org/economics [accessed 28 September 2009]. IATA, 2008b. Carrier Tracker: based on IATA Monthly International Statistics (MIS), monthly report. ICAO, 2007. Outlook for air transport to the year 2025. September 2007. ICAO, 2008. International civil aviation organization. The ICAO Data website. URL http:// icaodata.com ICAO, 2009. ICAO database, http://icaodata.com [accessed June, July and August 2009 on a daily basis]. IEA, 2008. Energy balances of OECD countries and energy balances of non-OECD countries.
Global market forecast: the future of flying
- Airbus
Airbus, 2006. Global market forecast: the future of flying 2006–2025. URL http://www.airbus. com [accessed November 2006]. November 2006 Bernstein, G.W., 2002. Aviation demand forecasting: a survey of methodologies. Transportation Research Board Report. URL http://onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/circulars/ec040.pdf [accessed 8 February 2010].
Jet fuel: how high a flyer? Demand, supply, and the endless quest for efficiency
- O Abadie
- IEA
Aviation demand forecasting: a survey of methodologies
- Bernstein