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What do climate models tell us about global warming?
Abstract
It has become widely accepted that an increase in the infrared optical depth of the atmosphere must lead to an increase in the global surface temperature. It is demonstrated here that this need not be so, implying a limited predictive capability for modern climate models.
... Chemical and biological changes in the climate system are also highly parameterized. Clearly some empirical basis and justification for these parameterizations can be made but because the real atmosphere and ocean have many degrees of freedom and connections among processes, there is no guarantee that the package assembled in a GCM is complete or that it can give us a reliable approximation of reality (Essex 1991). ...
... Here, climate scientists seek a theory capable of describing the thermodynamics, dynamics, chemistry and biology of the Earth's atmosphere, land and oceans. Another fundamental barrier to our understanding and description of the climate system is the inherent unpredictability of even a seemingly deterministic set of equations beyond a certain time horizon (Lighthill 1986, Essex 1991, Tucker 1999). The good news is that attempts to estimate the global weather or climate attractor directly from the primitive equations governing large-scale atmospheric motions yield a finite bound (Lions et al. 1997). ...
... Chemical and biological changes in the climate system are also highly parameterized. Clearly some empirical basis and justification for these parameterizations can be made but because the real atmosphere and ocean have many degrees of freedom and connections among processes, there is no guarantee that the package assembled in a GCM is complete or that it can give us a reliable approximation of reality (Essex 1991). Going beyond the issue of limited computing resources,Goodman & Marshall (1999) andLiu et al. (1999)have elaborated on various schemes of synchronous and asynchronous coupling for the highly complex atmosphere and ocean GCMs, while warning of the extreme difficulty inherent in deciphering the underlying physical processes of the highly tangled and coupled responses. ...
Soon et al. (2001) recently presented a limited review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of CGM's. As they note in their conclusions, they present a biased review. It is not the purpose of this comment to address the bias in their assessment of the current state of the performance of CGMs in simulating climate variability and climate change. A more balanced and much more widely reviewed assessment is provied by the IPCC Third Assessment Report, in the chapter on evaluation of cliamte models by McAvaney et al. (2001). Pages: 91-92
... Here, climate scientists seek a theory capable of describing the thermodynamics, dynamics, chemistry and biology of the Earth's atmosphere, land and oceans. Another fundamental barrier to our understanding and description of the climate system is the inherent unpredictability of even a seemingly deterministic set of equations beyond a certain time horizon (Lighthill 1986, Essex 1991, Tucker 1999. The good news is that attempts to estimate the global weather or climate attractor directly from the primitive equations governing large-scale atmospheric motions yield a finite bound (Lions et al. 1997). ...
... Chemical and biological changes in the climate system are also highly parameterized. Clearly some empirical basis and justification for these parameterizations can be made but because the real atmosphere and ocean have many degrees of freedom and connections among processes, there is no guarantee that the package assembled in a GCM is complete or that it can give us a reliable approximation of reality (Essex 1991). ...
... They conserve quantities that are not conserved by the dynamical system they represent. These are false invariants [Essex, 1991] (section 2). [28] 5. Computational schemes do not generally conserve all the same quantities as the system they represent. ...
... The differential equation, and the discrete map representing it, have different conservation properties and accordingly different symmetries [Mansfield, 2006]. G is a false invariant [Essex, 1991] intrinsic to the map. While the map does not preserve the symmetries of the original differential equation, this false invariant implies that the map has distinctive symmetries of its own. ...
1] This paper takes a novel approach to a known basic difficulty with computer simulations of nonlinear dynamical systems relevant to climate modeling. Specifically, we show by minimal examples how small systematic modeling errors might survive averaging over an ensemble of initial conditions. The resulting predictive errors can grow slowly enough initially that they may be overlooked without contradicting known behaviors on middle scales. However, they may nonetheless be significant on long timescales, given our current knowledge. Mathematical symmetry, which has been investigated for improving accuracy in computational algorithms, turns out to provide a novel perspective to this issue.
... La anterior opinión pertenece a un grupo de investigadores de origen ruso, liderizado por el académico O.G. Sorokhtin, quienes apoyan sus argumentos en un modelo más realista, de tipo termodinámico-adiabático, de calentamiento-enfriamiento por convección de la troposfera que demuestra lo insignificante de la variación de la temperatura terrestre, si se doblara la concentración actual de CO 2 (Khilyuk & Chilingar, 2003, 2004Chilingar & Khilyuk, 2007;Aeschbach-Hertig, 2007;Chilingar et al., 2008a, b). Esto contrasta notoriamente con el otro esquema (de tipo radiativo), mas sensible a la mencionada concentración y sobre el cual se basa el Protocolo de Kyoto, propuesto por el sueco Svante Arrhenius en 1896 (Ambio, 1997) y desarrollado como la teoría del mal llamado "Efecto Invernadero" (Essex, 1986(Essex, , 1991Gerlich & Tscheuschner, 2007), el cual sobre-estima el aumento de temperatura. ...
Este artículo fue rechazado para publicación por la revista española "El Escéptico"
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VisionEscepticaCambioClimatico[Colaboracion]
El Escéptico <elesceptico@escepticos.es> Thu, Feb 12, 2015 at 12:25 PM To: "PeñalozaMurillo, Marcos" <map4@williams.edu>
Estimado Marcos,
Tengo que comunicarte que el consejo de redacción ha decidido comunicarte no seleccionar tu artículo para su publicación. Muchas gracias por tu aportación.
Un cordial saludo.
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La idea de que el presunto recalentamiento global atmosférico y el cambio climático son fenómenos totalmente nuevos, producto del desarrollo y progreso de la humanidad, es una idea errada. Lo que sí es nuevo es la aparición en la atmósfera del CO2 de origen artificial, que se ha introducido en ella desde el inicio de la revolución industrial en el siglo 19, y que frente a fuentes naturales de ese gas “invernadero”, solo representa apenas una baja fracción (menos del 1%) del que sale hacia al aire desde el manto terrestre y por vía de otros procesos biosféricos...
... The existence of these and many other well-evidenced scientific uncertainties demonstrates that teaching students about the climate must include discussions of how complicated the Earth's climate system is and of why we cannot possibly have all the answers to every question about how and why climate changes. In particular, fundamental problems related to the parameterization of climate components with complex and potentially unknown interactions-notably forcings and feedbacks, especially those concerning clouds and the oceans-remain unsolved and are likely to remain so for the foreseeable future (Essex 1986(Essex , 1991Soon et al. 2001;Lindzen 2007;Koutsoyiannis et al. 2009). Owing to difficulties in simulating Arctic clouds (Walsh et al. 2009), climate models also have failed to simulate the surface shortwave and longwave radiation budgets in the Arctic by a very large margin when compared to the relatively minor effect of rising carbon dioxide in the scenarios posited. ...
Agnotology is the study of how ignorance arises via circulation of misinformation calculated to mislead. Legates et al. (Sci Educ 22:2007-2017, 2013) had questioned the applicability of agnotology to politically-charged debates. In their reply, Bedford and Cook (Sci Educ 22:2019-2030, 2013), seeking to apply agnotology to climate science, asserted that fossil-fuel interests had promoted doubt about a climate consensus. Their definition of climate 'misinformation' was contingent upon the post-modernist assumptions that scientific truth is discernible by measuring a consensus among experts, and that a near unanimous consensus exists. However, inspection of a claim by Cook et al. (Environ Res Lett 8:024024, 2013) of 97.1 % consensus, heavily relied upon by Bedford and Cook, shows just 0.3 % endorsement of the standard definition of consensus: that most warming since 1950 is anthropogenic. Agnotology, then, is a two-edged sword since either side in a debate may claim that general ignorance arises from misinformation allegedly circulated by the other. Significant questions about anthropogenic influences on climate remain. Therefore, Legates et al. appropriately asserted that partisan presentations of controversies stifle debate and have no place in education.
... But such simplifications teach bad concepts and provide students with a false confidence in their understanding of science that should be, but most often is not, unlearned as they progress to higher levels of study. Although few have heeded his warnings, Essex (1991) proffered an early criticism of such simplistic representations of 'global warming', 'heat radiation', and 'the greenhouse effect' even from a pedagogical sense. Essex concludes that ...
Agnotology has been defined in a variety of ways including “the study of ignorance and its cultural production” and “the study of how and why ignorance or misunderstanding exists.” More recently, however, it has been posited that agnotology should be used in the teaching of climate change science. But rather than use agnotology to enhance an understanding of the complicated nature of the complex Earth’s climate, the particular aim is to dispel alternative viewpoints to the so-called consensus science. One-sided presentations of controversial topics have little place in the classroom as they serve only to stifle debate and do not further knowledge and enhance critical thinking. Students must understand not just what is known and why it is known to be true but also what remains unknown and where the limitations on scientific understanding lie. Fact recitation coupled with demonizing any position or person who disagrees with a singularly-derived conclusion has no place in education. Instead, all sides must be covered in highly debatable and important topics such as climate change, because authoritarian science never will have all the answers to such complex problems.
... Concern about the validity of the models has produced analytical research of the problems. Essex (1991) notes that "...greenhouses achieve their warmth by preventing cooling, not by radiative trapping...".As a result, "... climate models are intricate physical pastiches that artfully simulate climatological phenomena without a comprehensive physical theory in place." Other research (Lighthill, 1986) has raised questions about the validity of deterministic equations and predictability. ...
... It has long been known by radiation experts that the differential equations describing temperature change due to variations in the optical depth of the atmosphere are so sensitive to minor changes in the lapse rate (the rate of cooling as you gain altitude) and the surface albedo (reflectivity) that actual temperatures could go up or down in response to CO 2 increases (Essex 1991). Models which always predict temperature increases must be programmed to do so. ...
Personal Background I received a Ph.D. in Economics in 1996 from the University of British Columbia, and the same year was appointed Assistant Professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Guelph, where I specialize in the economics of environmental policy. I have been studying the issue of climate change since 1992. My Ph.D. thesis examined options for implementing carbon taxes in Canada, for which I constructed several computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Since then I have continued to research theoretical and applied topics in environmental economics. My work has been published in academic journals including Economic Modeling, Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Canadian Public Policy, Canadian Journal of Economics, and Environmental and Resource Economics. I am a frequent journal referee for environmental and natural resource economics articles. In 1996 I wrote a report for Environment Canada on the costs of carbon emission controls and in 2000 I was a member of an international scientific panel which presented a critical review of the forthcoming Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) before a public briefing at the US Capitol. My research is funded by the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council of Canada and by internal University research grants. In particular I have never sought funds from private industry.
... Diesem Abschnitt liegt eine Arbeit von C. Essex (1991) zu Grunde. Physikalische Vorhersagbarkeit basiert auf Invarianzen, wie z.B. ...
Zugl.: Frankfurt am Main, Univ., Diss., 1996.
Several oscillating atmospheric/oceanic systems (e.g., the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation) are largely responsible for the Earth's weather and climate. Two fluid structures (the oceans and atmosphere) envelope the solid Earth. A rotating fluid generates waves (inertial waves) that flow inside the fluid, not on the surface. The inertial (Rossby and Kelvin) waves in the atmosphere and oceans are largely responsible for the formation, intensity, and duration of the main atmospheric/oceanic oscillating systems. The Earth's rotation has a dominant role in climate dynamics because it causes the inertial waves. The Earth rotation rate is typically 86,400 seconds per day: the Length of Day (LoD). There are three well-established findings about the Earth's rotation: • Every ten years or so the Earth's rotation rate increases or decreases significantly by between three and five milliseconds. • When, on a decadal basis, the Earth's rotation rate increases, the Earth warms globally; when the rate decreases, the Earth cools globally. • The cycles of global warming and cooling episodes repeat about every 60 years. Overlaying these cycles are the impact of the • Sun via radiation, matter, electromagnetic and gravitational fields, and their interaction effects; • atmospheric/oceanic systems' interaction effects; and • interaction effects of all processes. The decadal rotational variations likely arise from gravitationally driven electromagnetic coupling between inner and outer cores and the mantle. Global temperature changes some eight years after the Earth's rotation rate changes. The Earth's rotation rate changes some eight years after the inner core's rotation rate changes. Recently, scientists found that the inner core's rotation rate began to slow around 2009. Global cooling is likely to set in around 2025. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not mention any of the vast body of research published over the last 50 years on this subject. US and OECD scientific authorities consider that the deliberate omission of scientific results constitutes the falsification of science and is scientific misconduct. The concept of "truth" as something dependent upon facts largely outside human control has been one of the ways in which philosophy hitherto has inculcated the necessary element of humility. When this check upon pride is removed, a further step is taken on the road towards a certain kind of madness-the intoxication of power which invaded philosophy with Fichte, and to which modern men, whether philosophers or not, are prone. I
Several oscillating atmospheric/oceanic systems (e.g., the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and North Atlantic Oscillation) are largely responsible for the Earth's weather and climate. Two fluid structures (the oceans and atmosphere) envelope the solid Earth. A rotating fluid generates waves (inertial waves) that flow inside the fluid, not on the surface. The inertial (Rossby and Kelvin) waves in the atmosphere and oceans are largely responsible for the formation, intensity, and duration of the main atmospheric/oceanic oscillating systems. The Earth's rotation has a dominant role in climate dynamics because it causes the inertial waves. The Earth rotation rate is typically 86,400 seconds per day: the Length of Day (LoD). There are three well-established findings about the Earth's rotation: • Every ten years or so the Earth's rotation rate increases or decreases significantly by between three and five milliseconds. • When, on a decadal basis, the Earth's rotation rate increases, the Earth warms globally; when the rate decreases, the Earth cools globally. • The cycles of global warming and cooling episodes repeat about every 60 years. Overlaying these cycles are the impact of the • Sun via radiation, matter, electromagnetic and gravitational fields, and their interaction effects; • atmospheric/oceanic systems' interaction effects; and • interaction effects of all processes. The decadal rotational variations likely arise from gravitationally driven electromagnetic coupling between inner and outer cores and the mantle. Global temperature changes some eight years after the Earth's rotation rate changes. The Earth's rotation rate changes some eight years after the inner core's rotation rate changes. Recently, scientists found that the inner core's rotation rate began to slow around 2009. Global cooling is likely to set in around 2025. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change does not mention any of the vast body of research published over the last 50 years on this subject. US and OECD scientific authorities consider that the deliberate omission of scientific results constitutes the falsification of science and is scientific misconduct. The concept of "truth" as something dependent upon facts largely outside human control has been one of the ways in which philosophy hitherto has inculcated the necessary element of humility. When this check upon pride is removed, a further step is taken on the road towards a certain kind of madness-the intoxication of power which invaded philosophy with Fichte, and to which modern men, whether philosophers or not, are prone. I
The physics and mathematics of the the transport of energy by means of radiation is presented and put into the context of the Earth's atmosphere. The resulting mathematical structures correct simplistic popular misconceptions and language about radiative processes in the environment.
Radiation surrounds us, runs through us, and is even produced within us. While the term has taken on a sinister connotation since the development and use of nuclear power in the middle of the twentieth century, it is a misconception that radiation is not a natural part of the environment. There is no way to escape it entirely, neither would one want to. Sunshine is the most obvious form of radiation in our lives. Despite recent worry about it, from the standpoint of ultraviolet radiation, the world would literally die without solar radiation. Moreover, it pertains to many global environmental issues, from forecasts of global warming to ozone depletion. These topics too are burdened with misconceptions that are especially pertinent to those seeking a quantitative, environmetric outlook on radiation. Some of the most important of these will be identified in this article.
The central dogma is critically evaluated in the anthropogenic global warming (AGW) theory of the IPCC, claiming the Planck response is 1.2K when CO2 is doubled. The first basis of it is one dimensional model studies with the fixed lapse rate assumption of 6.5K/km. It is failed from the lack of the parameter sensitivity analysis of the lapse rate for CO2 doubling. The second basis is the Planck response calculation by Cess in 1976 having a mathematical error. Therefore, the AGW theory is collapsed along with the canonical climate sensitivity of 3K utilizing the radiative forcing of 3.7W/m2 for CO2 doubling. The surface climate sensitivity is 0.14-0.17K in this study with the surface radiative forcing of 1.1W/m2. Since the CO2 issue is removed, coal will be the energy for the future of many nations in terms of the amount of resource and production cost.
A likelihood of disastrous global environmental consequences has been surmised as a result of projected increases in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. These estimates are based on computer climate modeling, a branch of science still in its infancy despite recent substantial strides in knowledge. Because the expected anthropogenic climate forcings are relatively small compared to other background and forcing factors (internal and external), the credibility of the modeled global and regional responses rests on the validity of the models. We focus on this important question of climate model validation. Specifically, we review common deficiencies in general circulation model (GCM) calculations of atmospheric temperature, surface temperature, precipitation and their spatial and temporal variability. These deficiencies arise from complex problems associated with parameterization of multiply interacting climate components, forcings and feedbacks, involving especially clouds and oceans. We also review examples of expected climatic impacts from anthropogenic CO 2 forcing. Given the host of uncertainties and unknowns in the difficult but important task of climate modeling, the unique attribution of observed current climate change to increased atmospheric CO 2 concentration, including the relatively well-observed latest 20 yr, is not possible. We further conclude that the incautious use of GCMs to make future climate projections from incomplete or unknown forcing scenarios is antithetical to the intrinsically heuristic value of models. Such uncritical application of climate models has led to the commonly held but erroneous impression that modeling has proven or substantiated the hypothesis that CO 2 added to the air has caused or will cause significant global warming. An assessment of the merits of GCMs and their use in suggesting a discernible human influence on global climate can be found in the joint World Meteorological Organisation and United Nations Environmental Programme's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports (1990, 1995 and the upcoming 2001 report). Our review highlights only the enormous scientific difficulties facing the calculation of climatic effects of added atmospheric CO 2 in a GCM. The purpose of such a limited review of the deficiencies of climate model physics and the use of GCMs is to illuminate areas for improvement. Our review does not disprove a significant anthropogenic influence on global climate.
In December 2009, lawmakers and representatives from around the world, along with scientists, numerous journalists, and various celebrities flew to Copenhagen, Denmark. For the most part, their goal was to promote a regulatory scheme aimed at controlling human carbon emissions by declaring the element a tradable commodity and establishing laws and regulations to govern the trade. The proposed regulations were premised on the flawed notion, articulated by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 1 that increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2) concentrations will change climate dramatically and thereby cause major ecological and economic damage. While many scientists, including us, have observed some changes in climate, the hypothesized dangerous consequences of rising atmospheric CO 2 are too speculative for responsible regulatory policy. In analyzing climate policy, decision makers should be cognizant of three key considerations regarding the impact of projected rises in atmospheric CO 2 : (1) policy choices likely will have no measurable effect on the occurrence of severe weather; (2) positive effects on ecosystems and biodiversity are likely and should be weighed against the negatives; and (3) carbon trading schemes (such as the one touted in Copenhagen) are unlikely to lead to a reduction in atmospheric CO 2 . * Dr. Soon is an astrophysicist at the Solar, Stellar and Planetary Sciences Division of the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics. Dr. Soon has written and lectured extensively on issues related to the sun and other stars and climate. The views expressed by Willie Soon are strictly his and do not necessarily reflect those of Harvard University, the Smithsonian Institution, or the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics.
[1] Despite best efforts, there still is no physical theory for climate based on the physics of the laboratory regime (i.e., fluid mechanics, radiative transfer, classical thermodynamics, etc.). This paper builds from previous discussions on how laboratory-regime assumptions may lock our current theoretical efforts into the laboratory regime and how we might get around this problem. Using ultralong time photographic exposures (known as solargraphs) for inspiration, it draws into question classical thinking about intensive thermodynamic variables for theoretical climate purposes while using the fact that physical flows remain well defined even for climate regimes. These flows are characterized here as “generalized wind.” A simple example based on radiative energy and entropy transfer illustrates how these generalized wind fields can partially replace what is lost in moving away from laboratory-regime physics. These winds are shown to carry the dynamics in a modified form of radiation-like fluid dynamics that, together with radiation, might be possible to close in climate regimes.
http://adsabs.harvard.edu/
Type "Yaskell" and find PDF of entire monograph The Maunder Minimum and the Variable Sun-earth Connection.
The scientific basis for current projections of significant warming due to enhanced minor greenhouse gases in the atmosphere is reviewed. Care is taken to distinguish the issue of changes in radiative forcing at the earth's surface from the issue of the climatic response to this forcing. With respect to the former, it is noted that the predicted forcing is, in fact, small (2 W m(-2) at the surface for a doubling of CO(2), or less than 1% of the absorbed solar flux). With respect to the latter, it is noted that predictions of significant warming are dependent on the presence of large positive feedbacks serving to amplify the response. The largest of these feedbacks in current models involves water vapor at upper levels in the troposphere. This feedback appears to be largely a model artifact, and evidence is presented that models may even have the wrong sign for this feedback. The possibility is examined that the response of climate to major volcanic eruptions may provide a test of the climate system's amplification. The basis for this possibility is the fact that the response delay of the ocean-atmosphere system is proportional to the system gain.
Modern theories of dynamical systems have very clearly demonstrated the
unexpected fact that systems governed by the equations of Newtonian
dynamics do not necessarily exhibit the 'predictability' property.
Indeed, very recent researches have shown that in wide classes of very
simple systems satisfying those equations predictability is impossible
beyond a certain definite time horizon.
A global general circulation for mean January conditions has been
conducted with a nine-level, wavenumber 15 (rhomboidal) spectral model.
A semi-implicit algorithm has been used in the time integration, thereby
enhancing computational economy. The simulation reproduces many
qualitative aspects of the observed January climatology confirming this
type of model as an attractive alternative to models using
finite-difference formulations.
A general description of the Canadian Climate Centre atmospheric general circulation model is presented. The model includes, either in explicit or parametric form, all of the physical processes deemed important for long‐term climate simulations. Detailed descriptions of the methods used to represent these processes are presented.Selected results from test runs with the model are presented to illustrate its sensitivity to some aspects of the subgrid‐scale vertical flux parameterizations and the gravity wave drag formulation.
The "primitive equations of motion" are adopted for this study. The nine levels of the model are distributed so as to resolve surface boundary layer fluxes as well as radiative transfer by ozone, carbon dioxide, and water vapor. The lower boundary is a kinematically uniform land surface without any heat capacity. The stabilizing effect of moist convection is implicitly incorporated into the model by requiring an adjustment of the lapse rate whenever it exceeds the moist adiabatic value. The numerical integrations are performed for the mean annual conditions over a hemisphere starting with an isothermal atmosphere at rest. The spatial distribution of gaseous absorbers is assumed to have the annual mean value of the actual atmosphere and to be constant with time. A quasi-equilibrium is attained about which a cyclic energy variation occurs with an irregular period of about 2 weeks. The dominant wave number of the meridional component of the wind is 5 to 6 in the troposphere but is reduced to about 3 in the stratosphere. The gross structure and behavior of the tropopause and stratosphere below 30 km. agree reasonably well with observation. The meridional circulation obtained from the computation has a 3-cell structure in the troposphere and tends toward a 2-cell structure with increasing altitude in the stratosphere. Although the level of the jet stream as well as that of the maximum northward transport of momentum coincides with observation, the intensity of the jet stream turns out to be much stronger than the observed annual mean. ' In the stratosphere the temperature increases with increasing latitude because of the effect of large-scale motion. The magnitude of the increase, however, is smaller than that observed. A detailed study of the vertical distribution of the budget of kinetic energy, of available potential energy, of heat, and of angular momentum is made. The mechanism for maintaining the kinetic energy of the jet stream and of the stratosphere is discussed. It is concluded that in the model the kinetic energy in the stratosphere is maintained against its conversion into potential energy and dissipation through interaction with the troposphere, which is in qualitative agreement with the results derived from an analysis of the actual atmosphere. In the tropo- sphere, the conversion of potential energy reaches a maximum at about the 500-mb. level. This energy is then transferred to the level of the jet stream and to the surface boundary layer by the so-called pressure interaction term, thus providing the source of kinetic energy for these two levels at which dissipation is predominant. As with the results of Phillips (27) and Smagorinsky (37), the ratio of eddy kinetic energy to zonal kinetic energy and that of eddy to zonal available potential energy are computed to be much smaller than those of the actual atmosphere.
Radiative convective equilibrium of the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity is computed as the asymptotic state of an initial value problem.The results show that it takes almost twice as long to reach the state of radiative convective equilibrium for the atmosphere with a given distribution of relative humidity than for the atmosphere with a given distribution of absolute humidity.Also, the surface equilibrium temperature of the former is almost twice as sensitive to change of various factors such as solar constant, CO2 content, O3 content, and cloudiness, than that of the latter, due to the adjustment of water vapor content to the temperature variation of the atmosphere.According to our estimate, a doubling of the CO2 content in the atmosphere has the effect of raising the temperature of the atmosphere (whose relative humidity is fixed) by about 2C. Our model does not have the extreme sensitivity of atmospheric temperature to changes of CO2 content which was adduced by Möller.
This chapter focuses on climate model simulations of CO2-induced climatic change. It describes the current issues concerning the study of possible CO2-induced climatic change by the physical method, that is, by the use of mathematical climate models. An explanation of mathematical climate models is presented, followed by a comparison of the results of these models for the climatic change resulting from increased levels of atmospheric CO2. The focus is on the general circulation models and their simulations of CO2-induced climatic change because it is the geographical distribution of that change, which is of importance to humanity, and because the general circulation models (GCMs) simulate geographical distribution. The equilibrium simulations of eight GCMs for both doubled and quadrupled concentrations of CO2 are considered and the geographical distributions, zonal means, and global means of the CO2-induced changes in surface air temperature, precipitation rate, and soil moisture are compared. The issues that are raised by that comparison are described, and recommendations for resolving those issues are presented.
We present a review of the radiative-convective models that have been used in studies pertaining to the earth's climate. After familiarizing the reader with the theoretical background, modeling methodology, and techniques for solving the radiative transfer equation the review focuses on the published model studies concerning global climate and global climate change. Radiative-convective models compute the globally and seasonally averaged surface and atmospheric temperatures. The computed temperatures are in good agreement with the observed temperatures. The models include the important climatic feedback mechanism between surface temperature and H2O amount in the atmosphere. The principal weakness of the current models is their inability to simulate the feedback mechanism between surface temperature and cloud cover. It is shown that the value of the critical lapse rate adopted in radiative-convective models for convective adjustment is significantly larger than the observed globally averaged tropospheric lapse rate. The review also summarizes radiative-convective model results for the sensitivity of surface temperature to perturbations in (1) the concentrations of the major and minor optically active trace constituents, (2) aerosols, and (3) cloud amount. A simple analytical model is presented to demonstrate how the surface temperature in a radiative-convective model responds to perturbations.
The first assessments of the potential climatic effects of increased COâ were performed using simplified climate models, namely, energy balance models (EBMs) and radiative-convective models (RCMs). The feedback processes in RCMs include water vapor feedback, moist adiabatic lapse rate feedback, cloud altitude feedback, cloud cover feedback, cloud optical depth feedback, and surface albedo feedback. However, these feedbacks can be predicted credibly only by physically based models that include the essential dynamics and thermodynamics of the feedback processes. Such physically based models are the general circulation models (GCMs). The earliest GCM simulations of COâ-induced climate change were performed without the annual insolation cycle. The first GCM simulation of the seasonal variation of COâ-induced climate change was performed for a COâ quadrupling and obtained annual global mean surface temperature and precipitation changes of 4.1°C and 6.7%, respectively. Recently, three COâ-doubling experiments have been performed with GCMs that include the annual insolation cycle. These seasonal simulations give an annual global mean warming of 3.5° to 4.2°C and precipitation increases of 7.1 to 11%. The geographical distributions of the COâ-induced warming obtained by the recent simulations agree qualitatively but not quantitatively. Furthermore, the precipitation and soil moisture changes do not agree quantitatively and even show qualitative differences. In order to improve the state of the art in simulating the equilibrium climatic change induced by increased COâ concentrations, it is recommended first that the contemporary GCM simulations be analyzed to determine the feedback processes responsible for their differences and second that the parameterization of these processes in the GCMs be validated against highly detailed models and observations.
The current eager acceptance of oceanic thermal lag as the “explanation” as to why CO2 warming remains undetected, reemphasizes that the atmosphere cannot warm until the oceans do. The logical implication follows that most current climate models are lacking in relevance; they have not been constructed with ocean surface temperature as the fundamental variable. When the problem is attacked from this view, sensitivity to CO2 is significantly reduced; a position also strongly supported by the available palaeoclimatic data.
Lapse rates, moist adiabatic lapse rates and the critical lapse rate for baroclinic adjustment are calculated and compared for the mean annual, January and July states in the Northern Hemisphere. The small seasonal changes in hemispheric mean lapse rates can be attributed to counteracting seasonal changes in the strength of moist convection and baroclinic eddies. A major conclusion is that the vertical temperature structure may be well approximated by a radiative-convective equilibrium model with two critical lapse rates, viz. the moist adiabatic lapse rate and the critical lapse rate for baroclinic adjustment.
An annual variation with a range of 31 W/sq m is found in the global net radiation balance of the earth. The net radiation flux values measured from satellites and the changes in total heat content computed from independent sets of atmospheric and oceanic data show annual variations which are consistent with each other in both phase and magnitude. The net energy gain and loss by the planet within a year is stored and released within the system primarily by the oceans.
The production of entropy is analyzed for the stopping of a beam of atoms by momentum transfer from a counterpropagating laser beam. Expressions are given for the rate of entropy production in the photon beam and in the atomic beam. In the latter case, the kinetic entropy rate is computed from the compression of the velocity distribution function of the atoms under the radiation pressure. A thermodynamic analysis yields large irreversibilities in this process, because the total rate of entropy production due to absorption and emission of the photons is several orders of magnitude larger than the rate of entropy reduction in the atomic beam.
The Theory of Planetary Atmospheres
- J W Chamberlain
- G A Corby
- A Gilchrist
CHAMBERLAIN, J. W., The Theory of Planetary Atmospheres (Academic Press, New York 1978) p. 12. CORBY, G. A., GILCHRIST, A., and ROWNTREE, P. R. (1977), United Kingdom Meteorological Oj~ee Five-level General Circulation Model, Meth. Computat. Phys. 17, 67-94.
Trace Gases and the Problem of False Invariants in Climate Models
- C Essex
- C. Essex
EssEx, C. (1986), Trace Gases and the Problem of False Invariants in Climate Models, Climatol. Bull 20, 19-25.
Standard Atmosphere, National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics Reports Abstract in ICIAM 87 Final Program The "Greenhouse" Effect
- W R Gregg
- P D 14z Lax
- Lee~ R
GREGG, W. R. (1922), Standard Atmosphere, National Advisory Committee for Aeronautics Reports 14Z LAX, P. D. (1987), Mathematics and Computing, (Invited) Lecture at International Conference for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Paris 1987, Abstract in ICIAM 87 Final Program, INRIA Le Chesnay, 9, LEE~ R. (1973), The "Greenhouse" Effect, J. Appl. Meteor. 12, 556-557.
Numerical Results from a Nine-level General Circulation Model of the Atmosphere
- J Smagorinsky
- S Manabe
- J L Andholloway
- J. Smagorinsky
United Kingdom Meteorological Office Five-level General Circulation Model
- G A Corby
- A Gilchrist
- P R Androwntree
- G. A. Corby
Entropy Production in Stopping Atoms with Laser Light
- M E Carrera-Patiño
- R S Andberry
- M. E. Carrera-Patiño
The Recently Recognized Failure of Predictability in Newtonian Dynamics
- J Lighthill
- J. Lighthill
Étude de Performances d'un Avion, L'Aéronautique2
- A Toussaint
- A. Toussaint