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Projected Land-Use Change for the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed and Its Potential Impact
Abstract
Human occupation of the Panama Canal Watershed has affected its land cover for the past century. A rule-based model was developed
and applied to estimate changes in land use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years in the Eastern Panama
Canal Watershed (EPCW). Projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the ‘new-road’ scenario compared
to the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of carbon emission is from deforestation. Thus,
the most effective way to reduce carbon emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition
to affecting carbon emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW, which has
important implications for the long-term sustainable operation of the Panama Canal.
... Panama's service-based economy accounting for 80% of gross domestic product (GDP) makes the country a regional leader in terms of GDP per capita. In spite of this, Panama continues to report highly significant socioeconomic inequity, poverty, and levels of public debt (around half of GDP; CIA, 2008) which indicates fiscal unsustainability (Moreno- Villalaz, 2005 (Dale et al., 2003;Graham et al., 2006;Palka, 2005). In 2006, Panama approved a $5.25 billion project to expand its canal, which will require more water. ...
... Outside these areas however, rapid native deforestation (50'000-80'000 ha/year) is occurring. This is the crucial environmental issue to address (Dale et al, 2003;FCPF, 2008;Potvin et al, 2008;World Bank, 2006). pressures and inequity, lacking institutional capacity, governance and knowledge bases, outdated methods of extraction and production, and poverty (FCPF, 2008;Fischer & Vasseur, 2000;Wallander et al., 2007;World Bank, 2007a;Wunder, 2005; Figure 2.2). ...
... Currently, the 80 km long Panama Canal 1 can pass one ship at a time and up to 40 ships per day. Each ship transit results in 200 million liters of fresh water being lost to the ocean (BBC, 2006;Dale et al., 2003;Graham et al., 2006; Figure 2.6, page 18). One month of full operations uses around one third of useful lake volume, which results in a strict dependence on precipitation, and is a major concern in the dry season (Condit; 1998; Graham et al., 2006;Wang & Georgakakos, 2007). ...
Three main issues are identified and elaborated in more detail with respect to sustainability and potentials for carbon sequestration:
(1) Water, energy and their links with climate change;
(2) Climate vulnerability and human security
(3) Forestry, finance, and culture.
... Golley encouraged him to seek a career in ecology that would connect the many issues related to tropical deforestation with migrations of poor farmers seeking new lands to convert to pastures. Since those early discussions, many studies by Heckadon-Moreno and others in Panama have analyzed the sustainability of the Panama Canal's operation and management of the surrounding rainforest (e.g., Condit et al., 2001;Dale et al., 2005;Heckadon-Moreno, 1993Heckadon-Moreno et al., 1999). Public outreach and educational programs drawing on the work of these researchers, such as Aqua Salud, have helped to improve policies that retain rainforest cover. ...
... These studies have analyzed, among other things, forest succession and restoration following deforestation and construction, variable water and nutrient budgets, and projections on climate change. Current forest protection programs sustain hydro-ecological functions that provide the freshwater supplies needed for the operation of the Panama Canal and for municipal uses (e.g., Carse, 2012Carse, , 2014Condit et al., 2001;Dale et al., 2005;Ibáñez et al., 2002;Stallard et al., 2010). ...
... A second major factor affecting runoff generation is land-cover change (Bosch and Hewlett, 1982;Bruijnzeel, 1990;Wohl et al., 2012). In the PCW, the naturally occurring humid tropical lowland forest is widely converted to pastures and secondary forests (Dale et al., 2005). The hydrological consequences of such land-cover changes for the PCW receive increasing attention. ...
... The trend of deforestation is a phenomena occurring in entire PCW. In the year 2005 54% of the PCW was covered with forest (Dale et al., 2005) and in 2008 this value had decreased to 48.8% (ACP-Autoridad del Canal de Panamá, 2014). In the awareness of the ecosystem services of forests (Brauman et al., 2007) in 2008 the ACP implemented a program for the environmental protection and restoration, aiming to protect the existing forest, initiate reforestation and the support of agroforestry (ACP-Autoridad del Canal de Panamá, 2014). ...
Das Gebiet der feuchten Tropen ist die am stärksten durch den Landnutzungswandel betroffene Region der Erde. Vor allem die Rodung tropischer Wälder, um Platz für Rinderweiden oder den Anbau von Soja zu schaffen, aber auch seit jüngster Zeit die Bemühungen um Wiederaufforstungen prägen diesen Landnutzungswandel. Dabei beeinflusst die Änderung der Vegetationsbedeckung den regionalen Wasserhaushalt auf vielfältige Weise. Betroffen ist unter anderem die Verdunstung von feuchten Oberflächen. Die so genannte Interzeptionsverdunstung bzw. der Interzeptionsverlust trägt erheblich zum Wasserdampfgehalt in der unteren Atmosphäre und schließlich zur Niederschlagsbildung bei. Ziele dieser Dissertation waren (1) die experimentelle Untersuchung der Interzeptionsverlustunterschiede zwischen einem natürlichen, tropischen Wald und einer Sojaplantage im südlichen Amazonasgebiet, (2) die Modellierung des Interzeptionsverlustes dieser beiden Vegetationsformen im Vergleich zu einem jungen Sekundärwald unter dem Aspekt der Unsicherheiten bei der Ableitung notwendiger Modellparameter sowohl im Südamazonas als auch im Einzugsgebietes des Panamakanals sowie (3) die Wasserhaushaltsanalyse eines vom Landnutzungswandel geprägten Teileinzugsgebietes des Panamakanals in Hinblick auf die Veränderung der Interzeptionsverdunstung durch sich verändernde Landnutzung und der Änderung der klimatischen Bedingungen. Die Messung des Interzeptionsverlustes zeigte, dass in der Hauptwachstumsphase vom Soja von dessen Oberfläche mehr Wasserverdunstet als von der Oberfläche des Waldes. Allerdings ist in der Jahresbilanz der Interzeptionsverlust vom Wald höher, da diese Studie nur eine Momentaufnahme zur Zeit der vollen Vegetationsentwicklung des Sojas mit einem Zeitfenster von zwei Monaten widerspiegelt. Durch die geringere ganzjährige Verdunstung von den mit Soja bestandenen Flächen, wird hier der Niederschlag schneller dem Abfluss zugeführt und schell aus der Region ausgetragen. Somit trägt der Landnutzungswandel von Wald zu Soja zu einer mittelfristigen Reduktion des in der Region verfügbaren Wassers bei. Die anschließende Modellierung des Interzeptionsverlustes zeigte Einerseits einen starken Einfluss der Datenqualität auf die Plausibilität der Ergebnisse und Andererseits, dass die Sensitivität der einzelnen Parameter zwischen den Untersuchungsgebieten variiert. Eine Schlüsselrolle nimmt die Wasserspeicherkapazität der Vegetationskrone ein. Dennoch ist die Evaporationsrate die treibende Größe im Interzeptionsprozess, so dass von ihr die größte Unsicherheit ausgeht. Je nach verwendeter Methode zur Ableitung dieses Parameters unterscheiden sich die gewonnenen Parameterwerte erheblich. Die Wirkungsanalyse der Interzeptionsverdunstung auf den Wasserhaushalt im Wirkungsgeflecht der Änderungen von Temperatur, Niederschlag und Landnutzung im Landschaftsmosaik eines Flusseinzugsgebiets mit Hilfe eines Wasserhaushaltsmodels zeigte den Einfluss der Landnutzungsänderung auf die Abflussbildung mittels verschiedener Landnutzungsszenarien. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass die Landnutzungsänderung im Gebiet nur einen geringen Einfluss auf den Jahresabfluss hat. Stärker scheint sich der gemessene Temperaturanstieg auf die Verdunstung auszuwirken. Der mit einer höheren Temperatur einhergehende Anstieg der Transpiration und Interzeptionsverdunstung gleicht die gemessene Zunahme des Gebietsniederschlages aus, sodass keine signifikanten Änderungen im Jahresabfluss nachgewiesen werden konnten. Die Ergebnisse der drei Studien verdeutlichen den Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Interzeptionsverdunstung. Allerdings veranschaulichten die Resultate der Wasserhaushalts-modellierung, wie sehr dieser Einfluss durch die Veränderung der äußeren Rahmenbedingungen, vor allem durch den Anstieg der Temperatur, überprägt werden kann. Dies belegt, dass eine einfache Übertragung der Ergebnisse zwischen den Untersuchungsgebiet nicht möglich ist. Somit bleibt die experimentelle Erhebung von Vegetationsparametern sowie des Interzeptionsverlustes an den jeweils zu untersuchenden Standort für die Anwendung von Modellen unerlässlich.
... Wadsworth [57] compared maps from 1952 and 1978 and concluded that, during this period, about 30% of the watershed had been deforested. Other studies note that, between 1974 and 1991, the canal watershed lost about 43% of its forests to urbanization, cattle ranching, and crop cultivation [58,59]. Constructed and administered by the United States, the Panama Canal and the colonial Canal Zone began a period of gradual transition to Panamanian control with the signing of the Panama Canal Treaties in 1976, resulting in complete Panamanian administration at the close of the century. ...
Nature-based solutions (NbS) to water scarcity, environmental degradation, climate change, and biodiversity losses are enjoying increasing implementation throughout the world. This manuscript reviews three case studies from Brazil, Panama, and Portugal that illustrate NbS and searches for commonalities that may assist their usefulness in new sites. The Tijuca Forest in Rio de Janeiro is a remarkable story of centuries of forest management and restoration that initially aimed at providing water security for the capital of the country during the XIX Century while it was still a monarchy. Today, it is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The Panama Canal Watershed produces water for canal operations, electricity generation, and drinking water for half the country’s population. Traditional water mills and weirs near streams in the Alentejo Region, Portugal, have largely been abandoned due to the damming of the Guadiana River. Yet today, weirs are increasingly recognized for their important contribution to water provisioning in this dry region. All have a primary goal related to water provisioning, yet their ecosystem benefits are multiple. The cases offer important lessons for adaptation to climate change, cultural benefits from traditional human activities, and concerns about social equity.
... Wadsworth [33] compared maps from 1952 and 1978 and concluded that during this period about 30% of the watershed had been deforested. Other studies note that between 1974 and 1991 the Canal Watershed lost about 43% of its forests to urbanization, cattle ranching, and crop cultivation [34,35]. Constructed and administered by the United States, the Panama Canal and the colonial Canal Zone began a period of gradual transition to Panamanian control with the signing of the Panama Canal Treaties in 1976 resulting in complete Panamanian administration at the close of the century. ...
This manuscript reviews three case studies from Brazil, Panama, and Portugal that illustrate Nature-based Solutions. The Tijuca Forest in Rio de Janeiro is a remarkable story of centuries of forest management that today is recognized as a UNESCO World Heritage Site. The Panama Canal Watershed produces water for Canal operations, electricity generation, and drinking water for half the country´s population. Traditional windmills and weirs near streams in the Alentejo Region, Portugal, have largely been abandoned due to the damming of the Guadiana River. Yet today, weirs are increasingly recognized for their important contribution to water provisioning in this dry region. All have a primary goal related to water provisioning, yet their ecosystem benefits are multiple. The cases offer important lessons for adaptation to climate change, cultural benefits from traditional human activities, and concerns about social equity.
... Land use and Urban-rural changes I. Analyze the level of sustainable and healthy land use along the canal [54] and land use/cover changes [55] and their impact on regional development [56]. II. ...
Urban park green areas are part of territorial space planning, shouldering the mission of providing residents with high-quality ecological products and public space. Using a combination of several measurement models such as the BCG (Boston Consulting Group) matrix, ESDA (Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis), MLR (Machine Learning Regression), GWR (Geographically Weighted Regression), and GeoDetector, this paper presents an empirical study on the changes in Urban Park Green Areas (UPGAs) in the Grand Canal of China. By quantitatively measuring the spatio–temporal evolution patterns of UPGAs, this study reveals the driving mechanisms behind them and proposes policy recommendations for planning and management based on performance evaluation. The spatio–temporal evolution of UPGAs and their performance in China’s Grand Canal are characterized by significant spatial heterogeneity and correlation, with diversified development patterns such as HH (High-scale–High-growth), HL (High-scale–Low-growth), LH (Low-scale–High-growth), and LL (Low-scale–Low-growth) emerging. The evolution performance is dominated by positive oversupply and positive equilibrium, where undersupply coexists with oversupply. Therefore, this paper recommends the implementation of a zoning strategy in the future spatial planning of ecological green areas, urban parks, and green infrastructure. It is also recommended to design differentiated construction strategies and management policies for each zoning area, while promoting inter-city mutual cooperation in the joint preparation and implementation of integrated symbiosis planning. Furthermore, the spatio–temporal evolution of the UPGAs in the Grand Canal of China is influenced by many factors with very complex dynamic mechanisms, and there are significant differences in the nature, intensity, spatial effects, and interaction effects between different factors. Therefore, in the future management of ecological green areas, urban parks, and green infrastructure, it is necessary to interconnect policies to enhance their synergies in population, aging, industry and economy, and ecological civilization to maximize the policy performance.
... A largo plazo, se debe asegurar la protección de los recursos naturales necesarios para la operación del Canal, el abastecimiento de agua y energía para las poblaciones de la región y la conservación de la biodiversidad. La zonificación del uso del suelo en el plan, busca disminuir la cobertura de pasto en la cuenca un 94% para el 2015 y expandir la cobertura de las áreas protegidas hasta cubrir el 40% de la CHCPE (Dale et al., 2005). En el 2008, la ACP creó el Plan de desarrollo Sostenible para la Gestión Integrada de los Recursos Hídricos (DS-GIRH) a 20 años, con el objetivo de lograr las metas de uso del suelo de la Ley 21 (CICH, 2008b). ...
https://publications.iadb.org/handle/11319/7233
Este "Libro Blanco de la Cuenca del Canal" emplea las más recientes investigaciones para explicar los procesos fundamentales, apoyando el capital natural y la producción de servicios de los ecosistemas relacionados a las cuencas en una región clave de América Latina y el Caribe.
Resume las ideas actuales sobre la economía de cuencas y hace frente a las complejidades de su gobernabilidad. Utiliza ejemplos de la vida real y una serie de cinco estudios de caso
para ilustrar cómo la mejor ciencia, las políticas y las prácticas pueden tener un impacto positivo
en el manejo de cuencas.
Incluye, además, un conjunto de principios rectores a seguir para lograr una gestión sostenible de las cuencas.
... A largo plazo, se debe asegurar la protección de los recursos naturales necesarios para la operación del Canal, el abastecimiento de agua y energía para las poblaciones de la región y la conservación de la biodiversidad. La zonificación del uso del suelo en el plan, busca disminuir la cobertura de pasto en la cuenca un 94% para el 2015 y expandir la cobertura de las áreas protegidas hasta cubrir el 40% de la CHCPE (Dale et al., 2005). En el 2008, la ACP creó el Plan de desarrollo Sostenible para la Gestión Integrada de los Recursos Hídricos (DS-GIRH) a 20 años, con el objetivo de lograr las metas de uso del suelo de la Ley 21 (CICH, 2008b). ...
Version interactivo: http://www.stri.si.edu/smartreforestation/
Este "Libro Blanco de la Cuenca del Canal" emplea las más recientes investigaciones para explicar los procesos fundamentales, apoyando el capital natural y la producción de servicios de los ecosistemas relacionados a las cuencas en una región clave de América Latina y el Caribe.
Resume las ideas actuales sobre la economía de cuencas y hace frente a las complejidades de su gobernabilidad.Utiliza ejemplos de la vida real y una serie de cinco estudios de caso para ilustrar cómo la mejor ciencia, las políticas y las prácticas pueden tener un impacto positive en el manejo de cuencas.
Incluye, además, un conjunto de principios rectores a seguir para lograr una gestión sostenible de las cuencas.
... In the long term, the plan must ensure the protection of the resources necessary for the operation of the Canal, the supply of water and energy required by the region's inhabitants, as well as the conservation of biodiversity. Land-use zoning in the plan is intended to decrease pasture land in the watershed by 94% by 2025 and expand the watershed's pro-tected areas to cover 40% of the EPCW (Dale et al., 2005). In 2008, the ACP created a 20-year plan, the Sustainable Development Plan for Integrated Water Resource Management (known by its Spanish acronym DSGIRH), for the PCW to achieve the land-use goals of Law 21 (CICH, 2008b). ...
available at: http://www.stri.si.edu/smartreforestation/
This “Watershed White Paper” employs the latest research to explain the fundamental processes supporting natural capital and producing watershed related ecosystem services in a key region of Latin America and the
Caribbean.
It summarizes the current thinking on watershed economics and confronting the complexities of watershed governance.It uses real life examples and a series of five case studies to illustrate how the best science, policy, and practice can have a positive impact on watershed management.
It further includes a set of guiding principles to be followed to achieve sustainable watershed management.
... In the long term, the plan must ensure the protection of the resources necessary for the operation of the Canal, the supply of water and energy required by the region's inhabitants, as well as the conservation of biodiversity. Land-use zoning in the plan is intended to decrease pasture land in the watershed by 94% by 2025 and expand the watershed's pro-tected areas to cover 40% of the EPCW (Dale et al., 2005). In 2008, the ACP created a 20-year plan, the Sustainable Development Plan for Integrated Water Resource Management (known by its Spanish acronym DSGIRH), for the PCW to achieve the land-use goals of Law 21 (CICH, 2008b). ...
To participate in the potential market for carbon credits based on changes in the use and management of the land, one needs to identify opportunities and implement land-use based emissions reductions or sequestration projects. A key requirement of land-based carbon (C) projects is that any activity developed for generating C benefits must be additional to business-as-usual. A rule-based model was developed and used that estimates changes in land-use and subsequent carbon emissions over the next twenty years using the Eastern Panama Canal Watershed (EPCW) as a case study. These projections of changes in C stocks serve as a baseline to identify where opportunities exist for implementing projects to generate potential C credits and to position Panama to be able to participate in the emerging C market by developing a baseline under scenarios of business-as-usual and new-road development. The projections show that the highest percent change in land use for the new-road scenario compared to the business-as-usual scenario is for urban areas, and the greatest cause of C emission is from deforestation. Thus, the most effective way to reduce C emissions to the atmosphere in the EPCW is by reducing deforestation. In addition to affecting C emissions, reducing deforestation would also protect the soil and water resources of the EPCW. Yet, under the current framework of the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), only credits arising from reforestation are allowed, which after 20 years of plantation establishment are not enough to offset the C emissions from the ongoing, albeit small, rate of deforestation in the EPCW. The study demonstrates the value of spatial regional projections of changes in land cover and C stocks: The approach helps a country identify its potential greenhouse gas (GHG) emission liabilities into the future and provides opportunity for the country to plan alternative development pathways. It could be used by potential project developers to identify which types of projects will generate the largest C benefits and provide the needed baseline against which a project is then evaluated. Spatial baselines, such as those presented here, can be used by governments to help identify development goals. The development of such a baseline, and its expansion to other vulnerable areas, well positions Panama to respond to the future market demand for C offsets. It is useful to compare the projected change in land cover under the business-as-usual scenario to the goals set by Law 21 for the year 2020. Suggested next steps for analysis includeusing the modeling approach to exploreland-use, C dynamics and management ofsecondary forests and plantations, soilC gains or losses, sources ofvariability in the land use and Cstock projections, and other ecologicalimplications and feedbacks resulting fromprojected changes in land cover.
ABSTRACT Tree species,composition,at two,sites in the Upper,Chagres River basin, Panama, were evaluated using rapid inventory methods. At each site, two 40x40 m quadrats were demarcated, and each was thoroughly searched for tree and shrub,species.,The 40x40 m quadrats,had,a mean,of 155 species each, and the four pooled had 285 species; 29 other species,were,noted,near,the quadrats,or the camps,were,we stayed.,These,inventories,were,compared,to inventories,at 85 other sites in the Panama Canal watershed, and forest composition,and,diversity,was,evaluated,relative,to the mean,dry,season,duration.,The,Chagres,sites,are,wetter than most of the Canal watershed, and have higher diversity; the only,area,with,higher,diversity,is even wetter. The wettest,areas,of central Panama,-- along ridges,near,the Caribbean,coast,and,in the,Upper,Chagres,basin,-- are extremely,diverse.,Many,tree,species,are limited,to this wet zone, not occurring in drier areas of the Pacific slope of central,Panama. Pérez, R., Aguilar, S., Somoza, A., Condit, R., Tejada, I., Camargo, C., and Lao, S. 2005. Tree species composition and diversity in the Upper Chagres River Basin, Panama. Pp. in 227-235 The Rio Chagres, Panama: A Multidisciplinary Profile of a Tropical Watershed, Harmon, R.S. 2,Pérez et al.
This paper reviews the history of settlement in Panama and then summarizes the important findings of the Panama Canal Watershed
Natural Resources Monitoring Project, a multidisciplinary study was conducted between 1996–1999.
Past clearing and harvesting of the deciduous hardwood forests of eastern USA released large amounts of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, but through recovery and regrowth these forests are now accumulating atmospheric carbon (C). This study examined quantities and distribution of aboveground biomass density (AGBD, Mg ha−1) of US eastern hardwood forests and assessed their biological potential for continued biomass accumulation in the future. Studies have shown that the presence of a large proportion of the AGBD of moist tropical forests in large diameter trees (> 70 cm diameter) is indicative of mature and undisturbed conditions. This relationship was tested as a criterion for the eastern US deciduous forests to assess their stage of recovery and maturity, and evaluate their potential for continued C storage. The approach was to compare AGBD and its distribution in large trees for old-growth forests derived from published studies and for oak-hickory and maple-beech-birch forests using the extensive US Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data base. Old-growth forests generally had AGBD of 220–260 Mg ha−1 with up to 30% in trees with diameter > 70 cm. In contrast, maximum AGBD for the FIA units was about 175–185 Mg ha−1 with 8%–10% in large trees. Most units, however, were below these maximum values, suggesting that the forests represented by the FIA inventory are in various stages of recovery from past disturbance. Biologically, therefore, they have the potential to accumulate significant quantities of additional biomass, if left unharvested, and thus storing atmospheric C into the future.
Light and shadows in the management of the Panama Canal Watershed: in The Río Chagres: A Multidisciplinary Perspective of a Tropical River Basin
- S Heckadon-Moreno
Special edition on land-use change and forestry and the Kyoto Protocol: Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Climate Change
- J Bloomfield
- Ratchford
Panama Canal Watershed Climate Action/Conservation Project: The Nature Conservancy
- R Tarté
- R. Tarté