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Wagner's Law of Expanding State Activity
... Según Sideris (2007) para Wagner el desarrollo económico está asociado a la industrialización, lo que debe llevar al incremento de la participación del estado, por tres razones: la primera es que el hecho de que una sociedad más desarrollada es más compleja, tiene más conflictos entre sus miembros y requiere más intervención del gobierno en la economía; la segunda es sobre la representación perfectamente elástica de los bienes y servicios públicos, es decir, la elasticidad ingreso del gasto público es mayor a 1 y; la tercera son los inevitables cambios en la tecnología y la creciente cantidad de inversión requerida para muchas actividades crean más monopolios privados que el Estado debe suprimir o al menos combatir por su eficiencia económica. Desde la perspectiva de Wagner (1890) el tamaño del gobierno aumenta, porque hay mayor demanda de bienes públicos y necesidad del control de las externalidades (Bird, 1971;Sideris, 2007). Existe, según Wagner (1890), una mayor necesidad de "requerimientos fiscales", lo que va asociado al incremento de las actividades del sector público. ...
... Según Bird (1971), el crecimiento económico conduce a cambios en la formación de asentamientos urbanos y del sector privado, lo que lleva a la formación de alianzas monopólicas u oligopolios. Así, el aumento del gasto público responde a la expansión de los servicios administrativos, ordenados, recreativos, culturales y educativos, así como al surgimiento de la organización del sector privado para asegurar la eficiencia económica. ...
El presente artículo tiene como objetivo realizar un contraste sobre la Ley de Wagner frente a la Hipótesis Keynesiana en México para el periodo de 1990 a 2021 con el fin de conocer la relación existente entre el crecimiento económico y el gasto público. Se elaboraron pruebas de cointegración y causalidad mediante el uso de datos de series temporales. Los resultados presentan pruebas de la existencia de una relación causal del crecimiento económico sobre el gasto público y de una cointegración a largo plazo entre ambas variables, por lo cual, dichos resultados respaldan la presencia de la Ley de Wagner en la economía mexicana para el periodo analizado.
... Según Sideris (2007) para Wagner el desarrollo económico está asociado a la industrialización, lo que debe llevar al incremento de la participación del estado, por tres razones: la primera es que el hecho de que una sociedad más desarrollada es más compleja, tiene más conflictos entre sus miembros y requiere más intervención del gobierno en la economía; la segunda es sobre la representación perfectamente elástica de los bienes y servicios públicos, es decir, la elasticidad ingreso del gasto público es mayor a 1 y; la tercera son los inevitables cambios en la tecnología y la creciente cantidad de inversión requerida para muchas actividades crean más monopolios privados que el Estado debe suprimir o al menos combatir por su eficiencia económica. Desde la perspectiva de Wagner (1890) el tamaño del gobierno aumenta, porque hay mayor demanda de bienes públicos y necesidad del control de las externalidades (Bird, 1971;Sideris, 2007). Existe, según Wagner (1890), una mayor necesidad de "requerimientos fiscales", lo que va asociado al incremento de las actividades del sector público. ...
... Según Bird (1971), el crecimiento económico conduce a cambios en la formación de asentamientos urbanos y del sector privado, lo que lleva a la formación de alianzas monopólicas u oligopolios. Así, el aumento del gasto público responde a la expansión de los servicios administrativos, ordenados, recreativos, culturales y educativos, así como al surgimiento de la organización del sector privado para asegurar la eficiencia económica. ...
El presente artículo tiene como objetivo realizar un contraste sobre la Ley de Wagner frente a la Hipótesis Keynesiana en México para el periodo de 1990 a 2021 con el fin de conocer la relación existente entre el crecimiento económico y el gasto público. Se elaboraron pruebas de cointegración y causalidad mediante el uso de datos de series temporales. Los resultados presentan pruebas de la existencia de una relación causal del crecimiento económico sobre el gasto público y de una cointegración a largo plazo entre ambas variables, por lo cual, dichos resultados respaldan la presencia de la Ley de Wagner en la economía mexicana para el periodo analizado.
... Bkz.Peacock ve Wiseman, 1961;Gupta, 1967;Goffman, 1968;Pryor, 1968;Musgrave, 1969Musgrave, , 1973Bird, 1970Bird, , 1971Michas, 1975;Mann, 1980; Payne ve Ewing, 1996. ...
Kamu maliyesinin hayatımız açısından etkisi düşünüldüğünde, literatürdeki eserlerin birer bilimsel çalışma olmasının yanında, bu alanın kullanıcısı olan ya da olmayan tüm kesimlerin, sosyoekonomik olayları daha iyi analiz etmesine ve geleceğe yönelik bakış açısının şekillenmesinde büyük katkıları olacağı aşikârdır. İşte bu gaye ile hazırlanmış olan bu eser, maliye alanına katkıda bulunma amacının bir ürünüdür. Birbirinden değerli bölümlerin yer aldığı bu kitap, yazarların titiz çabaları neticesinde ortaya çıkmış olup toplam sekiz bölümden oluşmaktadır. Kitabın birinci bölümü Prof. Dr. Hakan ARSLANER tarafından hazırlanan BARTER SİSTEMİNİN TÜRK VERGİ MEVZUATI AÇISINDAN DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır Kitabın ikinci bölümü Arş. Gör. Esra Berika DÖNMEZ ve Prof. Dr. Onur EROĞLU tarafından hazırlanan YAŞLI BAĞIMLILIĞININ AZALTILMASINA YÖNELİK GELİR VERGİSİ PLANLAMA ARACI ÖNERİSİ: KARŞILAŞTIRMALI DOKÜMAN ANALİZİ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın üçüncü bölümü Doç. Dr. Hakan BAY ve Vergi Müfettişi Mevlüt DEMİREL tarafından hazırlanan, GELİR VERGİSİNDE VERGİYİ DOĞURAN OLAYIN TESPİTİ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın dördüncü bölümü, Doç. Dr. Şaban ERTEKİN ve Doç. Dr. Şahin BULUT tarafından hazırlanan, ASGARİ ÜCRET İLE ENFLASYON ARASINDAKİ NEDENSELLİK İLİŞKİSİ: TÜRKİYE İÇİN BİR ANALİZ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın beşinci bölümü, Dr. M. Taylan YAVUZER ve Prof. Dr. Hakan HOTUNLUOĞLU tarafından hazırlanan, KAMU HARCAMALARI VE BORÇLANMANIN EKONOMİK BÜYÜME İLE İLİŞKİSİ: G7 VE E7 ÜLKELERİ PERSPEKTİFİNDEN TEORİK VE AMPİRİK ÇALIŞMALAR ÜZERİNE İNCELEME başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın altıncı bölümü, Maliye Bilim Uzmanı Burak ÖZGÜVEN ile Prof. Dr. Alparslan UĞUR tarafından hazırlanan, TÜRK MİLLİYETÇİLİĞİ FİKRİYATININ İKTİSADİ VE MALİ İZDÜŞÜMLERİ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın yedinci bölümü, Maliye Bilim Uzmanı Aslı KARAKAŞ ve Doç. Dr. Haluk TANDIRCIOĞLU tarafından hazırlanan, TÜRKİYE'DE DOĞAL AFETLERİN ETKİLERİ: 6 ŞUBAT KAHRAMANMARAŞ DEPREMLERİ ÜZERİNDEN BİR İNCELEME başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır. Kitabın sekizinci bölümü, Prof. Dr. Hamza KAHRİMAN ve Doktorant (100/2000 YÖK Doktora Bursiyeri) Deniz ÇİÇEK tarafından hazırlanan GABELLE (TUZ VERGİSİ) VE FRANSIZ DEVRİMİNE ETKİSİ başlıklı çalışmadan oluşmaktadır.
... Since then, many empirical studies have been conducted to test the postulation. The studies of Musgrave (1969), Gupta (1967), Michas (1975), Goffman (1968), Bird (1971), Krzyzaniak (1971), Peacock-Wiseman (1979), Ram (1986), Kolluri et al., (2000) and Mann (1980) rely on conventional regression analysis while assuming the Stationarity of the series. Over time, it was realized that time series data possess stochastic trends (unit root) and would become stationary after the first difference (Nelson and Plosser, 1982). ...
The study tries to analyze the impact of national income on public expenditure. Further, we also endeavor to examine the asymmetric adjustment in the context of the Indian economy. Initially, unit root tests employing Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron test (PP) are used to evaluate the stationarity of the underlying data. Furthermore, the well-known non-linear autoregressive distributive lag (NARDL) model is used on yearly time series data from 1980 to 2018 to evaluate the long-run and short-run implications of the aforementioned association. The non-linear ARDL long–run results confirm the validity of Wagnerian postulation in all its five variants in India during the study period. The asymmetric ARDL results reveal that a positive shock in national income increases government expenditure. At the same time, a negative shock in the same causes a reduction in government expenditure. The results suggest the effectiveness of public expenditure as a fiscal policy tool in driving economic development in sub-national budgeting. This study is novel in the sense that the national income vs. public expenditure debate is revisited in the current scenario of country’s development so that resource allocation be optimized. To ensure robustness of the study, we specifically took total revenue and capital expenditure as public expenditure and Net National Product at Factor Cost (NNPFC) as a proxy of National income.
... He predicted an increase in the ratio of government expenditure to national income as per capita income rises. Bird (1971) outlined the reasons for fiscal expansion in line with Wagner's hypothesis to include: (a) economic expansion-the associated industrialization and urbanization would generate additional needs for government services in areas that go well beyond the traditional national defence and legal system; (b) real income growth, so does the demand for income-elastic and welfare expenditures; (c) government spending may also complement the private sector funding for long-term investments as a result of economic developments and changes in technology. ...
This paper examines the effects of revenue structure and budgetary choice on the fiscal sustainability index of the 36 state governments in Nigeria for the years 2012–2020, using a two-step Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) estimation approach. Preliminary results suggest that out of 36 states, Lagos and Rivers States are Nigeria’s most financially viable states within the sample period. Edo, Kano, Delta, and Ogun states are the third, fourth, fifth, and sixth most economically viable states, with Osun occupying the bottom (36th) position in Nigeria. The paper further finds that the fiscal viability index has a positive spillover effect that runs from the past to the present, suggesting that states with stable fiscal policy are likely to sustain their fiscal policy structure. Similarly, the budgetary choice variable has a positive but statistically insignificant effect on the fiscal sustainability index. Revenue Structure has a negative and statistically significant impact on the fiscal sustainability index. Further research reveals a bidirectional causal relationship between the state government’s budgetary decisions (the Annual Operating Budget, or AOB) and the fiscal sustainability index (FSI). Based on the above results, the paper recommends fiscal policy reform that enables diversification of revenue sources and stringent management of IGR by the state government, with high transparency.
... Wagner's theory is not actually a supposition of public expenditure growth but, instead, a simplification about the material trend of public spending (Goffman & Mahar, 1971). Bird (1971) asserts that as per capita income increases in developed countries, their public sectors will develop in comparative value. Wagner (1977) posits reasons in support of his theory. ...
The poor capital expenditure implementation caused by scarce resources, risks related to multilateral loans and Euro-dollar deficit financing of federal government of Nigeria (FGN) amidst tightened global financial conditions motivated this study. The study examined the effect of revenue and budget risk factors on capital expenditure of federal government of Nigeria for the period 1993-2022. Specifically, it investigated the effect of oil revenue on the capital expenditure of FGN; examined the relationship between non-oil revenue and capital expenditure of FGN; evaluated the effect of oil price volatility on capital expenditure of FGN; and assessed the influence of external debt transaction risks on capital expenditure of FGN. The study employed an ex-post facto research design with bounds test and autoregressive distributed lag regression test to produce results on secondary data. The results indicated significant effect of oil revenue from upstream activities on federal government’s capital expenditure (FGCE), while oil revenue from downstream activities proxied with petroleum profit tax had a positive and insignificant effect on FGCE. The non-oil revenue explained a large proportion of the determining factor of FGCE in the long run; company income tax and custom duty collections had positive and significant effects on FGCE, but the effect of value added tax was insignificant on FGCE. More so, the long run estimate of the model reported that Brent UK crude oil price volatility, OPEC spot rate crude oil volatility and West Texas Intermediate crude oil price volatility failed to report significant effect on the federal government capital expenditure in Nigeria. This showed that the oil price volatility is a short run phenomenon that would fade out in short period; hence, the reason for high speed of adjustment of the error correction term. As regards the effect of external debt transaction risks on FGCE, external debt interest servicing cost had a positive effect on FGCE and was statistically significant at 5% level. Global interest rate volatility and the exchange rate risk had positive but statistically insignificant effects on FGCE. The study concluded that revenue and budget risk factors affected the capital expenditure of federal government of Nigeria. The study recommends that government should be tactful in its efforts at fiscal policy synchronisation in line with the suggestions of fiscal synchronisation theory. There is also need to monitor federal government’s capital expenditure pattern and revenues in critical revenue generating agencies with a commitment to sustaining fiscal adjustments, ensuring sustainable debt servicing levels, creating fiscal space for capital and infrastructural development.
Abstract en Español:
El presente artículo tiene como objetivo analizar la causalidad entre el crecimiento económico y el gasto público para el caso colombiano considerando el periodo de 1950 a 2014. La metodología parte de la aproximación de Toda & Yamamoto (1995) y la estimación de un modelo VEC en harás de determinar la existencia de causalidad en el sentido de Granger. Los resultados evidencian causalidad
bidireccional entre las variables en el corto plazo, sin embargo, en el largo plazo solamente se encontró evidencia de causalidad en términos per cápita del gasto público hacia la producción interna bruta real de la economía colombiana.
Abstract in English:
The present paper has the objective to analyze the causality between the economic growth and public spending for the Colombian case considering the period of 1950 to 2014. The methodology uses the approximation of Toda & Yamamoto (1995) and the estimation of a VEC model in order to determine the existence of causality in
Granger terms. The results evidence a bidirectional causal relationship between the variables in the short-run, however in the long-run the causality evidence was confirmed only in per capita levels from the public spending to the real gross domestic product of the Colombian economy.
Subject. This article discusses the issues related to the contribution of the State to the formation of the gross domestic product of developed countries. Objectives. The article aims to verify Wagner's law on the basis of a long and medium time series of consolidated regional budget expenditures and gross regional products of the Kursk, Bryansk, Orel, Lipetsk, Voronezh, and Belgorod Oblasts in comparison with global trends. Methods. For the study, we used a statistical analysis of the time series and comparative analysis. Results. The article presents the results of verification of Wagner's law on the statistical data of economically developed countries and confirms its significance. The article finds that the share of the State in the gross product in developed countries and regions of Russia is growing in the long term, but demonstrates cyclicality in the medium term. Conclusions. The development of Russia and its regions is in line with global trends and demonstrates the growing role of the State in the economy.
Fiscal policy allocation is not purely determined by the labour-capital conflict, but increasingly around cross-class housing coalitions. Although rising house prices are conventionally understood as drivers of fiscal austerity, this view has been challenged. Alternatively, governments may use fiscal policies to support house price growth to meet the primary economic interests of homeowners and compensate non-homeowners through the welfare system. Using an econometric analysis of 19 advanced economies between 1980 and 2018, we show house prices have positive effects on taxation revenue as well as fiscal spending on public investment, welfare and education. A second multi-level analysis provides a political explanation of this observed outcome by demonstrating parties respond to rising house prices by proposing more welfare and public investment spending in their manifestos. Conterminously rising house prices and rents also lead to greater welfare spending, suggesting governments use fiscal policy to protect those excluded from homeownership from labour market risks.
İktisat biliminin 18. yüzyılda Adam Smith tarafından temellerinin atılmasıyla makro ve mikro anlamda birçok soruna da çözüm arayışları başlamıştır. Adam Smith’e göre ekonomide denge kendi kendine oluşur ve bu nedenle devlet müdahalesine gerek yoktur. Devlet sadece otomatik bu dengenin sağlanamadığı güvenlik, adalet ve sağlık gibi alanlarda kendini gösterebilir. Devlet müdahalesinin gerekli olup olmadığına yanıt arayan başka ekoller de olmuştur. Makro iktisadı kurup geliştiren Keynesyen ekol bu konuda büyük önem arz etmektedir. 1929’dan sonra Keynes’in önderliğini üstlendiği Keyneysen iktisat devletin ekonomide önemli bir yerinin olduğunu savunmuş ve devletin bu rolünü gerekli görmüştür. Söz konusu her iki anlayış ekonomide devletin rolünün ne olması gerektiğine büyük önem atfetmişlerdir. Bu makalede de ekonomide devlet müdahalesinden yola çıkılarak; kamu harcaması türleri olan tüketim, yatırım ve transfer harcamalarının ekonomik büyümeyle arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Bu ilişkinin temellerini teorik olarak Wagner ve Keynes atmıştır. Bunun üzerine yapılan araştırmalar sonucuna göre ilişki Keynes ve Wagner görüşüne göre şekillenmiştir.
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