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Potential Threats from a Likely Nuclear Power Plant Accident: a Climatological Trajectory Analysis and Tracer Study

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The legacy of Chernobyl is not the only nuclear accident likely to confront Turkish territory, which is not far from other insecure power plants, especially the Metsamor. The main purpose of this study was to examine the possible impacts to Turkish territory of a hypothetical accident at the Metsamor Nuclear Plant. The research was performed based on two different methodologies: First, a 10-day trajectory analysis was carried out a set of long-term (30years) meteorological data; second, a tracer study was performed using the MM5T online model for the selected episode. Trajectory and tracer studies showed that an accident at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant would influence all of Turkey. Furthermore, vulnerable regions in Turkey after the Chernobyl disaster were demonstrated as a new and first attempt in this study.
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Potential Threats from a Likely Nuclear Power Plant
Accident: a Climatological Trajectory Analysis
and Tracer Study
Tayfun Kindap & Ufuk Utku Tur uncoglu &
Shu-Hua Chen & Alper Unal & Mehmet Karaca
Received: 16 May 2008 / Accepted: 6 September 2008
#
Springer Science + Business Media B.V. 2008
Abstract The legacy of Chernobyl is not the only
nuclear accident likely to confront Turkish territory,
which is not far from other insecure power plants,
especially the Metsamor. The main purpose of this
study was to examine the possible impacts to Turkish
territory of a hypothetical accident at the Metsamor
Nuclear Plant. The research was performed based on
two different methodologies: First, a 10-day trajectory
analysis was carried out a set of long-term (30 years)
meteorological data; second, a tracer study was
performed using the MM5T online model for the
selected episode. Trajectory and tracer studies showed
that an accident at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant
would influence all of Turkey. Furthermore, vulnerable
regions in Turkey after the Chernobyl disaster were
demonstrated as a new and first attempt in this study.
Keywords Nuclear accidents
.
Trajectory analysis
.
MM5 Tracer Model
1 Introduction
The hazardous effects of a nuclear power plant
accident were unimaginable until the Chernobyl
accident occurred in 1986, when a large quantity of
radionuclide was released and eventually contaminat-
ed a wide geographical area (Tschiersch and Georgi
1987; IAEA 1991). The total mass of radioactive
particulate material released during 26 April5 May,
1986 was about 8,000 kg (Sandalls et al. 1993). Most
of the released radioactive materials were in particu-
late form (Khitrov et al. 1994), whereas noble gases
and m ost of the iodine were in gaseous form
(Pöllanen et al. 1999). Pöllanen et al. (1997) showed
that after the Chernobyl accident, several European
countries were affected by large and highly radioac-
tive particles. In the Chernobyl accident, most of the
particulate materials were deposited within 20 km of
the plant, but about one-third was transported even
Water Air Soil Pollut
DOI 10.1007/s11270-008-9853-2
This paper is dedicated to the loving memory of our
outstanding colleague, Dr. Umit Anteplioglu, who passed away
during the course of this research. We will miss him forever.
T. Kindap (*)
:
A. Unal
:
M. Karaca
Eurasia Institute of Earth Sciences,
Istanbul Technical University,
Ayazaga Campus,
Istanbul, Turkey
e-mail: tayfun@ccl.rutgers.edu
T. Kindap
Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences Institute
(EOHSI), Rutgers University,
Piscataway, NJ, USA
U. U. Turuncoglu
Institute of Informatics, Istanbul Technical University,
Istanbul, Turkey
S.-H. Chen
Department of Land, Air and Water Resources,
University of California,
Davis, CA, USA
thousands of kilometers (Powers et al. 1987; Charles
et al. 1997). Even today, scientists in many countries
remain interested in the consequences of the accident
in contaminated areas, primarily related to the health
risks to the present and future generations (e.g. Veen
and Meijer 1989; Facchinelli et al. 2002; Varinlioglu
and Kose 2005). Contrary to most European
countries, the accident has unfort unately not been
the center of concern in Turkey. Even though the
Turkish territory was thought to be at a safe distance
(more than a thousand kilometers) from the site of the
accident, it was affected by large depositions and high
concentrations of radioactive pollutants released to
the atmosphere during the accident (e.g. Pöllanen et
al. 1997; Lan gner et al. 1998), and this has recently
become a current issue in the country due to the
increasing n umber of c ancer case s in North ern
Turkey, the area most affected by the accident.
A similar hazard could be faced in the near future
as insecure nuclear power plants with a high risk of
accidents remain in the region, and this time it could
pose a more dangerous threat for Turkey. The
Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant in (MNPP) Eastern
Armenia is the closest (16 km) Russian-designed
nuclear power plant to Turkey (Fig. 1). In addition to
its old technology and unsatisfactory safety measures,
the powe r plant is in a location exposed to severe
seismic waves, yielding a high possibility of accidents
(Cisternas et al. 1989 ; Balassanian et al. 1999; Okay
and Tuysuz 1999). In the past, this risk to the
Metsamor Power was recognized and it was closed
down following the 1988 earthquake in Armeni a.
However, notwithstanding the objections of some
neighboring countries, the Armenian government
decided to reopen the plant, which now meets 40%
of the national electricity demand, in 1993 due to
energy shortages in the country. This re-launch of its
operations has once again raised concerns about the
likely accident risk of the plant.
A similar concern exists for the Kola Nuclear
Power Plant (KNPP) in northern Russia. For this
reason, the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority
and the Institute for Energy Technology perfor med a
joint project investigating the consequences of poten-
Fig. 1 The location of Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP) and regions of Turkey with selected cities
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tial accidents at the KNPP (Bartnicki and Saltbones
1997; Saltbones et al. 1997). Climatological trajector y
analyses and episode studies were also done for
KNPP by Saltbones et al. (2000 ). In this study, the
authors answered the following qu estion: What is the
probability for a radioactive cloud, emitted during an
accident, to hit a certain location? Similar method-
ology had been use d earlier by other authors
(Nordlund et al. 1988; OECD 1977). The trajectories
were computed according to a method described by
Pettersen (1956).
It is a well-known fact that once radioactive
particles and gases are released to the atmospher e,
long-range atmospheric transport processes can cause
widespread distribution of these radioactive matters,
although they originate from a single point as in the
case of the Chernobyl accident (e.g. Mason and
Macdonald 1987; Renato et al. 1994). The Chernobyl
experience clearly showed that a possible accident in
the Metsamor Power Pla nt would affect Turkish
territory by large depositions and high concentrations
of radioactive pollutants released to the atmosphere.
For this reason, the main goal of this study was to
assess the possible imp acts on Turkey of a hypothet-
ical nuclear accident at the MNPP. The research was
performed based on two different methodolog ies:
First, a trajectory analysis was carried out for long-
term (30 years) meteorological data used for a 10-day
trajectory analysis. Secondly, a tracer study was
performed using a tracer model (MM5T) recently
developed and used (Chen et al. 2008 and Kindap
2008) for the selected episode. Furthermore, a
numerical experiment was performed for the Cher-
nobyl disaster in order to evaluate t he model
performance. This study is the first to display the
influence z one of the Chernobyl accident over
Turkey.
2 Study Area
The Caucasus, also called Caucasia, lies in Eurasia
between the eastern shore of the Black Se a and the
western shore of the Caspian Sea and includes the
countries Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia (Fig. 1).
The terrain elevation is quite high over the area and
Mount Elbrus in western Ciscaucasia in Russia is
considered to be the highest point in Europe
(5,600 m). Meteorological conditions over the area
are determined by the air circulation over the Eurasian
continent. The formation of climate over the zone is
influenced by cold air masses (Scandinavian anti-
cyclones; Siberian anticyclones and Azores maxi-
mum), hot air masses (subtropical anticyclone and
southern cyclones), Central Asian anticyclones, and
local weather conditions (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Climate_of_Azerbaijan). Cold Arctic air masses come
over the area during the winter season. In the winter,
air masses also come down over the Caspian Sea from
the mountainous regions of Iran. Both of these high-
pressure convergent air masses drive cyclones over
the zone. Moreove r, cyclones generated over the
Black and the Mediterranean Seas impact the regions
weather.
3 Climatological Tr ajectory Approach
3.1 Trajectory Method
Trajectory analyses are generally performed to de-
scribe air pollution transport patterns. In this study,
however, this approach was used to identify the
vulnerable regions on Turkish territory following a
hypothetical accident in the MNPP. To get a compre-
hensive evaluation, a period of 30-year (19611990)
NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental
Predictions/National Centers for Atmosphe ric Re-
search) reanalysis data (NNRP-NCEP NCAR Reanal-
ysis Project 2 .5°, 6-h ourly) was u sed for the
climatological trajectory evaluation. The distribution
of trajectories was shown at σ = 0.995 level. This
corresponds to a near-surface level. The trajectories
were computed according to a method described by
Pettersen (1956) as a forward trajectory approach in
an 81-km grid resolution. An air parcel was released
once every 6h and a total of 42,368 air parcels
(trajectories) were released during these 30 years
(19611990). The method is similar to that of the
FLEXTRA (Stohl et al. 1998) trajectory model. In
addition, the accuracy of our results was tested and
proved against the NOAA ARL HYSPLIT (HYbrid
Single-Particle Lagrangian In tegrated Trajectory)
model.
In this study, in the case of an accident during these
30 years, the probability of the arrival of the
trajectories (T) to a given grid cell (ij) is equal to the
number of trajectories crossing this grid cell (N
ij
)
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divided by the total number of air trajectories released
(N
tot
):
T
ij
¼ N
ij
N
tot
ð1Þ
The computed probability is dependent on the size
of the grid squares and the length of the trajectories. In
general, the probability of the arrival increases with the
length of the trajectories, but for trajectories longer
than 8 days it does not change much (Saltbones et al.
2000). In this study, therefore, 10-day trajectories
were researched.
The map displaying the probability of being hit by
the emitted material is shown in Fig. 2.The
distribution of probabilities is quite smooth and
isotropic to some extent. However, the distribution
of moderate probabilities extended slightly in the
southeast direction and lost its circular shape over the
related area. It is a well known fact that the Persian
Gulf low pressure system is generally seen during the
summer months. It starts in the middle of June,
stabilizing by the end of the month, remaining
dominant during July and August and disappears
very quickly in mid-September (Bitan and SaAroni
1992). Similarly, seasonal distribution of the trajecto-
ries indic ated that a dominant distr ibution in the
southeast direction was formed specifically in summer
months (not shown). As a result, this system probably
causes this kind of motion in summer time in this area.
Because of the long averaging period, this seasonal
duration could be partly eliminated. As seen in the
figure, similar to the Chernobyl tragedy, most of the
European Continent w ould be affected aft er an
accident at the Metsamor NPP.
In addition, the average travel time was computed
by calculating the number of points along the
trajectories (every 6 h) from the Metsamor NPP to
any grid cell and was shown on the map (Fig. 3). For
each trajectory, the counting started from the source
point and was continued until the first point in the
grid square (ij) was reached. The number of points
was multiplied by the time step for the trajectories to
calculate the average travel time. Due to the course
time resolution of the NCEP/NCAR Global Reanalysis
NNRP data, the results might not give the absolute
values for the travel time in this study. Nevertheless,
they correspond to average values in a larger set of
data covering the long period and they gave an idea
about how long t he average time was for a
radioactive plume emitted during an accident at the
MNPP to hit the selected locations. It can be seen in
the fig ure that radioactive plumes could alr eady
reach any point of Turkish territory at the end of
5 days. For the selected receptors, detailed informa-
tion about the likelih ood of the arrival and average
travel time is listed in Table 1.
Fig. 2 Map for the probabil-
ity of arrival of radioactivity
based on the method (Eq. 1)
and calculated for the trajec-
tories of air parcels for
10days released from MNPP
for a period of 30years. The
dot shows the location of the
Metsamor NPP. Each
number indicates a selected
city in Turkey as receptors
(0 Izmir, 1 Antalya, 2
Istanbul, 3 Sinop, 4 Ankara,
5 Antakya, 6 Sivas, 7
Mardin, 8 Kars, 9 Sources
close to the MNPP)
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Focusing on Turkish territory in Fig. 2, the proba-
bility of arrival is highest for the Eastern sections of
Turkey, as expected. This probability reached more
than 60% near the source and in adjacent towns (such
as Kars, Agri, and Igdir). Specifically, while a
probability of 61.08% was observed over the city of
Kars (8), it reached 66.09% near the Metsamor NPP
(Near Source9) (Table 1). Furthermore, this area
might be affected within a very short time period,
approximately 12 h (Fig. 3). On the other hand, the
probability of arrival decreases to 27.7% over Mardin
(7) in the Southeast Anatolia Region; 5.57% and 3.36%
over Sivas (6) and the capital Ankara (4) in the Central
Anatolia Region; 2.14% and 0.87% over Antakya (5)
and Antalya (1) in the Mediterranean Region; 3.69%
over Sinop (3) in the Black Sea Region; 0.76% over
Istanbul (2) in the Marmara Region and 0.43% over
Izmir (0) in he Aegean Region (Table 1). Average travel
time to these cities ranges between 12 and 120 h
according to Fig. 3.
4 Tracer Modeling Approach
4.1 Tracer Model
Chen et al. (2008) developed an on-line tracer model
(MM5T) based on the fifth-generation Penn State/
Fig. 3 Map of average trav-
el time from the MNNP to
any given grid square based
on 30-year meteorological
data. The dot shows the
location of the Metsamor
NPP. Each number indicates
a selected city in Turkey as
receptors (0 Izmir, 1
Antalya, 2 Istanbul, 3
Sinop, 4 Ankara, 5 Antakya,
6 Sivas, 7 Mardin, 8 Kars, 9
Sources close to the MNPP)
Selected receptors city
number and name
Number of arrival
trajectories for each
receptor
Probability of arrival
for each receptor (%)
Average travel time
for each receptor (h)
0-Izmir 181 0.43 96120
1-Antalya 367 0.87 7296
2-Istanbul 324 0.76 7296
3-Sinop 1564 3.69 4872
4-Ankara 1422 3.36 4872
5-Antakya 906 2.14 2448
6-Sivas 2361 5.57 2448
7-Mardin 11736 27.7 2448
8-Kars 25879 61.08 012
9-Near Source 28002 66.09 012
Table 1 Number of arriv-
ing, probability of arrival,
and average travel time
from the Metsamor NPP to
selected receptors
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NCAR Mesoscale model (MM5; Grell et al. 1995),
which was used in this study. MM5T includes the
original MM5 model and a continuity tracer equation.
The advection, boundary layer mixing, sub-grid
cumulus convective mixing, and sedimentation of
tracers were taken into account in the tracer calcula-
tion. The only source term is the emission from the
surface and the only sink term is the dry deposition to
the surface due to sedimentation. Chemical reactions
and wet depositions were excluded. The use of an on-
line approac h can avoid temporal interpolation errors.
The detail of the MM5T is provided in Chen et al.
(2008).
The model configuration included a single domain
with a horizontal resolution of 81-km. There were 68 ×
58 grid points in the eastwest and south north
directions, respectively. Twenty-nine stretched full-
sigma levels were used in the vertical. The chosen
model physics options were: the rapid radiative
transfer model (RRTM) radiation scheme (Mlawer et
al. 1997), Kain Fritsch cumulus param et eriz a tion
(Kain 2004); medium range forecast (MRF) boundary
layer parameterization (Hong and Pan 1996 ), and the
simple ice microphysics scheme (Dudhia 1 989).
NCEP/NCAR (The National Centers for Environmen-
tal Prediction/The National Center for Atmospheric
Research) reanalysis data with a resolution of 2.5° ×
2.5° were used for initial and boundary conditions for
MM5T simulat ions.
4.2 The Application of the MM5T to the Chernobyl
Accident
The tracer model was applied to the Chernobyl
Nuclear Plant accident in order to evaluate the
MM5T model performance. During the Chernobyl
disaster, 6,0008,000 kg radioactive particulate matter
was released to the atmosphere (Sandalls et al. 1993).
In this study, emission data was arranged according to
this amount and it was released with a constant rate of
35 kg/h continuously during the entire simulation
period from April 26 to May 5, 1986.
Radioactive particulate materials released during
26 April5 May, 1986 were found in many European
countries after the accident. A study which was
performed by United Nations Scientific Committee
on the Effects of Atomic Radiation (UNSCEAR) in
1988 showed the spread of radioactive plumes over
Europe after the Chernobyl nuclear accident as
indicated in Fig. 4. Due to the prevailing meteorolog-
ical conditions in the period following the accident, a
radioactive plume distribution was initially observed
over Northern European countries (Plume A: number
1 and 2 in Fig. 4). The MM5T simulation produced
similar results (Fig. 5). Specifically, a high pressure
system over Western Siberi a creating strong south-
easterly winds caused the transport of radioa ctive
clouds to the North of Europe, especially Sweden and
Finland on April 26 and 27 (Fig. 5a). Then, high
radioactive observations were witnessed in Central
Europe 5days after the accident (Plume B: number 3,
4, and 5 in Fig. 4). Meanwhile, the high pressure
system over western Siberia moved westward and
another high pressure system was formed on April 30
over the North of Europe, changing the wind
directions to the south (Fig. 5b). One day later (May
1), the high pressure system continued moving
westward and was located over the Scandinavian
countries. As a result of this formation, the radioac-
tive plume was carried to the central European
countries (Fig. 5c).
Finally, due to the changing meteorological con-
ditions, radioactive clouds were seen over the Balkan
countries in Eastern Europe on May 3, 1986 (Plume
C: number 6 and 8 in Fig. 4
). On the other hand, the
Fig. 4 Spreading of radioactive plumes over Europe after the
Chernobyl nuclear accident. Numbers 18 represent plume
arrival times at respective areas: 1 April 26; 2 April 27; 3 April
28; 4 April 29; 5 April 30; 6 May 1; 7 May 2 and 8 May 3 (The
figure was adapted from the UNSCEAR report for 1988)
Water Air Soil Pollut
Chernobyl impact was detected in Western European
countries including England (Plume C: number 7 in
Fig. 4). The combination of a high pressure system
located over Northern Europe and a low pressure
system positioned over Western Siberia caused a
transport of radioactive clouds to the Balkan
countries, including Turkey, in the late hours of May
3 (Fig. 5d).
On the other hand, a study performed by Borzilov
and Klepikova (1993) showed the spread of radioac-
tive plumes over Europe after the Chernobyl nuclear
accident. In addition to findings of the previous study,
they also calculated the eastward distribution of the
radioactive plumes. According to the results of the
study, the MM5T simulation could also produce
similar outcomes.
4.3 The Application of the MM5T to a Hypothesized
Metsamor Accident
In this study, a hypothetical episode of the Metsamor
NPP accident was simulated. It was assumed that the
Fig. 5 Simulated tracers and wind vectors near surface at (a)
48-h simulation (b) 120-h simulation (c) 144-h simulation and
(d) 192-h simulation. H and L indicate the locations of high and
low pressure formation respectively. The dots show the location
of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP)
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power plant accident occurred at the Metsamor
instead of the Chernobyl on April 26, 1986. A
numerical simulation with the same model configura-
tion, numerical setup, and time period as the
Chernobyl simulation was performed.
During the simulation period, meteorological con-
ditions (especially wind direction) over the Metsamor
and its vicinity changed continuously and radioactive
plumes were transported to different regions of
Turkey by strong winds. With an accident occurring
in the Metsamor NPP on April 26, 1986 radioactive
plumes would already have affected a substantial part
of Eastern Turkey at the end of the first day (Fig. 6a).
During the first day, the prevailing easterly winds
provided plume transport into the Turkish territory.
Generally, the Eastern Anatolian Region, where around
six million people live, was subject to fatal concen-
trations of radioactive matter at the end of the first
simulation day. In addition, the figure indicates that the
Eastern Black Sea Region was also subjected to a high
concentration of radioactive matter. A vertical distribu-
tion of the radioactive plume after 6h of simulation on a
Fig. 6 Simulated tracers and wind vectors near surface at (a) 24-h simulation (b) 72-h simulation (c) 120-h simulation and (d) 216-
h simulation. The crosses (x) show the location of the Metsamor Nuclear Power Plant (MNPP)
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transect between Metsamor and the city of Kars, which
is one of the closest residential areas in Turkey to the
MNPP, is shown in Fig. 7a. It can be clearly seen in the
figure that Metsamor, which is 130 km from Kars,
poses a serious threat for the inhabitants of the city.
There is no doubt that after a possible accident at
Metsamor NPP, cities in its vicinity such as Igdir, Kars,
Agri etc. (Figs. 1 and 6), would be exposed to
extremely high levels of radioactive matter.
After 3days (72-h simulation), radioactive plumes
continued being diffused to the inland of Turkey
(Fig. 6b). Most of them were dispersed to the North
with strong southeasterly winds, while a high con-
centration of radioactive matter had already reached
the Southeast Anatolian Region of Turkey (Fig. 6b).
The cross-section of the radioactive clouds between
the power plant and the border city of Mardin proved
this dispersion (Fig. 7b).
At the end of 5 days (i.e., 120-h simulation),
radioactive plumes moved to the North of Europe first
and then were transferred to the South by strong
northerly winds influencing the central and eastern
shorelines of the Black Sea (Fig. 6c). A cross-section
of the distribution of tracers between the city of
Sinop, the northernmost point of Turkey, and the
Metsamor NPP can be seen in Fig. 7c. In addition to
Fig. 7 Cross-sections of the tracers between the power plant and city of Kars (a), Mardin (b), Sinop (c), Izmir (d) after 6- 72- 120 and
216-h simulations respectively
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the horizontal dispersion, this figure also demon-
strates the transport of nuclear clouds vertically over
the north side of Turkey (Fig. 7c). The radioactive
plume was trapped in a lower verti cal depth (less than
1 km) over the city (Fig 7c). On the other hand,
Fig. 6c indicated that the most intense amounts of
radioactive matter were observed on the Eastern side
of the Metsamor NPP and in its nearby environment.
Finally, after 9 days (i.e., a 216-h simulation),
northeasterly winds over Western Russia caused the
transport of radioactive plumes to the West and North
of Turkey (Fig. 6d). Although the intensive deposition
of the radioactive matters was limited over Eastern
Turkey, most Turkish territory was contaminated by
this time. A cross section of the plume distribution
between Izmir, one of the westernmost points of
Turkey by the Aegean Sea, and the Metsamor NPP
illustrated clearly that radioactive clouds dominated
over Turkey (Fig. 7d). Hence, it can be clearly seen in
the figure that at even more than a distance of
1,400 km from the power plant it would not be
possible to avoid the influence of potential accidents
at the Metsamor Nuclear Power Station.
5 Summary and Conclusions
Despite the terrible consequences associated with the
Chernobyl accident in 1986, Turkish authorities have
not yet paid sufficient attention to the different aspects
of safety at nuclear installations in the former Soviet
Union. The vulnerable Metsamo r Nuclear Power
Plant in neighboring Armenia has not gained enough
attention in any official reports, and an emergency
response system has not been constituted at this point.
This study focused on the potential threat from
radiation released by a likely accident at the Metsa-
mor Nuclear Power Plant and the subseq uent atmo-
spheric transport of radio active materials. Trajectory
analysis and tracer simulations were used to evaluate
the problem. This nuclear power plant in Eastern
Armenia is the closest (16 km) Russian-designed
nuclear power plant to Turkey. In addition to old
technologies and unsatisfactory safety measures, the
Spitak Earthquake (1988), which was also called
Leninakan Earthquake, showed that the location of
the power plant is exposed to severe seismic waves,
giving a high possibility of accidents.
Fig. 8 Simulated tracers and
wind vectors at 925 mb layer
after a 210-h simulation
(4 May 1986 18:00 UTC).
The cross shows the location
of the Metsamor Nuclear
Power Plant (MNPP)
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In the first part of the study, a trajectory analysis
was performed using 30-year historical analysis data
(19601991). Forward trajectories with radiative
matters released from the MNPP were calculated
and demonstrated (Fig. 2). A smooth and isotropic
distribution of probability was seen. Summertime
Siberian and Mediterranean anti cyclones were poten-
tially the cause of the southeastern elongation of this
rather isotropic distribution. Results indicate that
although Turkish territory is influenced in its entirety,
the Eastern part of Turkey is highly threatened by the
hypothesized MNPP accident. In addition, the prob-
ability of arrival and approximate travel time for each
selected receptor was shown in Table 1. This table
also shows that cities in proximity to the MNPP in the
Eastern An atolian Region (e.g Igd ir, K ars, Agri)
might be exposed to high levels of radioactive matter
(at a probability of more than 61.08%) in a short time
period (less than 12 h). Radionuclide transport to
central Turkey (e.g. Ankara, the capital) could occur
in two and a half days with 3.36% of the trajectories,
but the border city of Mardin in the South-East
Anatolia Region would already be influenced at the
end the first day in 27% of the trajectories. The city of
Izmir, in the far West of the country, is also influenced
in about 5 days with a 0.43% probability after a
hypothesized accident (Table 1).
The MM5 Tracer model was used for the second
part of the source-receptor study. The tracer simula-
tion was first performed for the Chernobyl Nuclear
Plant accident in order to evaluate the model
performance. When compared with previous studies
(e.g. UNSCEAR 1988; Pöllänen 1997; Brandt et al.
2002; UN Chernobyl Forum 2005), the model gave a
similar distribution of radioactive plumes during the
Chernobyl accident. Besides a satisfactory model
performance, this simulation is the first study to show
the Chernobyl effects over Turkey. It was believed
that the northern parts of Turkey were mostly affected
by the Chernobyl ac cident. This study, however,
showed that other parts of Turkish territory, such as
the Marmara Region, the Aegean Region, and even
the Central Anatolian Region were influenced as well
(Fig. 8).
On the assumption that an accident had occurred at
the Metsamor NPP instead of the Chernobyl on April
26, 1986, radioactive plumes were simulated to
perform episode studies. During the simulation time,
continuously changing meteorological conditions pro-
vided a comprehensive evaluation for the area of
interest. At the end of the first day, radioactive plumes
already dominated a substantial part of Eastern
Turkey and they presented an isotropic distribution
similar to that of the trajectory study (Fig. 6a). On the
other hand, when the simulation was completed, it
was clearly observed that the entire Turkish territory
had been affected by the radioactive matter (Fig. 6).
The tracer episode study demonstrated that if there
had been an accident at the MNPP plant on April 26,
1986 instead of the Chernobyl, Turkish territory
would have faced an extremely serious problem, in
particular for eastern Turkey, which would not be able
to recover for many years.
In a nut shell, the Metsamor project with its
trajectory and tracer simulations has produced a risk
map in terms of both location and time to the Turkish
people in the event of such a probable accident. The
above-mentioned MM5T on-line tracer model pro-
vides some advantages that avoid temporal interpola-
tion errors. The accuracy of the model and the
direness of its predictions should galvanize the
Turkish authorities to take the necessary precautions.
All in all, it could be used as an emergency tool to
enhance public alertness against nuclear accidents.
Acknowledgement This study has been supported by a
research grant (11_05_268) provided by the Secretaria of
Research Activities at Istanbul Technical University and by a
research grant (105Y046) provided by The Scientific and
Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK). The
modeling experiments were carried out at the computing
facilities of the Institute of Informatics at Istanbul Technical
University. Thanks to M. Ersen Aksoy and Taylan Sancar
(EIES) for technical assistances. We appreciate the editorial
assistance provided by Ayce Aksay.
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... Although all Turkey was affected by the radioactive cloud for several, only one measurement of 137 Cs deposition was performed and provided to the Atlas study, and for this reason only a small fraction of the Turkish territory is covered by the Atlas. Kindap et al. (2008) tested the MM5T (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) tracer model to reproduce the dispersion of radioactive material after the CNPP accident, using a constant emission rate during the period from 26th of April and the 5th of May. Kindap et al. (2008) noted that a larger part of the Anatolian peninsula was affected by the CNPP accident, despite a widely accepted belief in Turkish population that only the northern Black sea coasts were reached by the radioactive cloud. ...
... Kindap et al. (2008) tested the MM5T (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) tracer model to reproduce the dispersion of radioactive material after the CNPP accident, using a constant emission rate during the period from 26th of April and the 5th of May. Kindap et al. (2008) noted that a larger part of the Anatolian peninsula was affected by the CNPP accident, despite a widely accepted belief in Turkish population that only the northern Black sea coasts were reached by the radioactive cloud. ...
... Our results were compared with the JRC-REM deposition and air concentrations dataset, which was used to create the Atlas of caesium deposition on Europe. We also focused on deposition and air concentrations of 137 Cs occurred over the Anatolian peninsula, which was not included in the Atlas and only partially discussed in Kindap et al. (2008). A final section is dedicated to the estimate of the total 137 Cs effective doses to which Turkish population was exposed. ...
... Although all Turkey was affected by the radioactive cloud for several, only one measurement of 137 Cs deposition was performed and provided to the Atlas study, and for this reason only a small fraction of the Turkish territory is covered by the Atlas. Kindap et al. (2008) tested the MM5T (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) tracer model to reproduce the dispersion of radioactive material after the CNPP accident, using a constant emission rate during the period from 26th of April and the 5th of May. Kindap et al. (2008) noted that a larger part of the Anatolian peninsula was affected by the CNPP accident, despite a widely accepted belief in Turkish population that only the northern Black sea coasts were reached by the radioactive cloud. ...
... Kindap et al. (2008) tested the MM5T (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) tracer model to reproduce the dispersion of radioactive material after the CNPP accident, using a constant emission rate during the period from 26th of April and the 5th of May. Kindap et al. (2008) noted that a larger part of the Anatolian peninsula was affected by the CNPP accident, despite a widely accepted belief in Turkish population that only the northern Black sea coasts were reached by the radioactive cloud. ...
... Our results were compared with the JRC-REM deposition and air concentrations dataset, which was used to create the Atlas of caesium deposition on Europe. We also focused on deposition and air concentrations of 137 Cs occurred over the Anatolian peninsula, which was not included in the Atlas and only partially discussed in Kindap et al. (2008). A final section is dedicated to the estimate of the total 137 Cs effective doses to which Turkish population was exposed. ...
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The Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant (CNPP) accident occurred on April 26 of 1986, it is still an episode of interest, due to the large amount of radionuclides dispersed in the atmosphere. Caesium-137 (Cs-137) is one of the main radionuclides emitted during the Chernobyl accident, with a half-life of 30 years, which can be accumulated in humans and animals, and for this reason the impacts on population are still monitored today. One of the main parameters in order to estimate the exposure of population to Cs-137 is the concentration in the air, during the days after the accident, and the deposition at surface. The transport and deposition of Cs-137 over Europe occurred after the CNPP accident has been simulated using the WRF-HYSPLIT modeling system. Four different vertical and temporal emission rate profiles have been simulated, as well as two different dry deposition velocities. The model simulations could reproduce fairly well the observations of Cs-137 concentrations and deposition, which were used to generate the 'Atlas of Caesium deposition on Europe after the Chernobyl accident' and published in 1998. An additional focus was given on Cs-137 deposition and air concentrations over Turkey, which was one of the main affected countries, but not included in the results of the Atlas. We estimated a total deposition of 2-3.5 PBq over Turkey, with 2 main regions affected, East Turkey and Central Black Sea coast until Central Anatolia, with values between 10 kBq m(-2) and 100 kBq m(-2). Mean radiological effective doses from simulated air concentrations and deposition has been estimated for Turkey reaching 0.15 mSv/year in the North Eastern part of Turkey, even if the contribution from ingestion of contaminated food and water is not considered, the estimated levels are largely below the 1 mSv limit indicated by the International Commission on Radiological Protection.
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... Kindap et al. (2008) tested the MM5T (Chen and Dudhia, 2001) tracer model to reproduce the dispersion of radioactive material after the CNPP accident, using a constant emission rate during the period from 26th of April and the 5th of May. Kindap et al. (2008) noted that a larger part of the Anatolian peninsula was affected by the CNPP accident, despite a widely accepted belief in Turkish population that only the northern Black sea coasts were reached by the radioactive cloud. ...
... Our results were compared with the JRC-REM deposition and air concentrations dataset, which was used to create the Atlas of caesium deposition on Europe. We also focused on deposition and air concentrations of 137 Cs occurred over the Anatolian peninsula, which was not included in the Atlas and only partially discussed in Kindap et al. (2008). A final section is dedicated to the estimate of the total 137 Cs effective doses to which Turkish population was exposed. ...
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... They are based on 30-year (1961e1990) reanalysis data (NCEP/NCAR), available for every 6 h at a 2.5 resolution ( Kindap et al., 2009). The computed probability depends on the grid size and increases with the trajectories length, with very small changes for trajectories longer than 8 days ( Kindap et al., 2009). Fig. 1 depicts the probability of air masses originating from GIA, GCA and GAA to reach various locations in the East Mediterranean, demonstrating the regional importance of air pollution from these megacities. ...
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... This study, however, showed that other parts of Turkish territory, such as the Marmara Region, the Aegean Region, and even the Central Anatolian Region were influenced as well. The study demonstrated that if there had been an accident at the MNPP plant on April 26, 1986 instead of the Chernobyl, Turkish territory would have faced an extremely serious problem, in particular for eastern Turkey, which would not be able to recover for many years [27]. Karakhanian et al. examined volcanic and seismic acts of this area. ...
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A "quick look up guide", Electricity Cost Modeling Calculations places the relevant formulae and calculations at the reader's finger tips. In this book, theories are explained in a ?nutshell? and then the calculation is presented and solved in an illustrated, step-by-step fashion. A valuable guide for new engineers, economists (or forecasters), regulators, and policy makers who want to further develop their knowledge of best practice calculations techniques or experienced practitioners (and even managers) who desire to acquire more useful tips, this book offers expert advice for using such cost models to determine optimally-sized distribution systems and optimally-structured power supplying entities. In other words, this book provides an Everything-that-you-want-to-know-about-cost-modelling-for-electric-utilities (but were afraid to ask) approach to modelling the cost of supplying electricity. In addition, the author covers the concept of multiproduct and multistage cost functions, which are appropriate in modelling the cost of supplying electricity. The author has done all the heavy number-crunching, and provides the reader with real-world, practical examples of how to properly quantify the costs associated with providing electric service, thus increasing the accuracy of the results and support for the policy initiatives required to ensure the competitiveness of the power suppliers in this new world in which we are living. The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output (i.e., electricity), which could then be used to determine whether a merger between two entities makes sense (i.e., would increase profitability). Other examples abound: public regulatory commissions also need help in determining whether mergers (or divestitures) are welfare-enhancing or not; ratemaking policies depend on costs and properly determining the costs of supplying electric (or gas, water, and local telephone) service. Policy makers, too, can benefit in terms of optimal market structure; after all, the premise of deregulation of the electric industry was predicated on the idea that generation could be deregulated. Unfortunately, the economies of vertical integration between the generation. A comprehensive guide to the cost issues surrounding the generation, transmission, and distribution of electricity; Real-world examples that are practical, meaningful, and easy to understand; Policy implications and suggestions to aid in the formation of the optimal market structure going forward (thus increasing efficiency of electric power suppliers) The principles contained herein could be employed to assist in the determination of the cost-minimizing amount of output.
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